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UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?'
The data calendar is littered with business sentiment opinion polls today. In the world of soundbite economics, the sensationalism these surveys offer means they get more attention than they deserve. The US ISM manufacturing survey has reported a slump and now a recovery this year—the reality is that manufacturing output has been dull and stable. German manufacturing sentiment signals dire activity levels, but manufacturing sales have been more stagnant than collapsing.
04:3924/10/2023
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Spherification
The inter-relationships between economic growth, interest rates, and the Fed are critical for the investment outlook, yet there's not much clarity on them right now. We discuss what catalysts might deliver some clarity in the days and weeks ahead, what is all means for the markets, and how you should think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
15:3523/10/2023
Washington Weekly Podcast: Latest on Israel-Hamas War, House Speaker search
Our conversation updates you on the latest developments, including President Biden’s visit to Israel and takeaways from his Oval Office address to the nation. We also update on the House Speaker search and what the days ahead up on Capitol Hill might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy
10:5720/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More movement in interest rates'
The latest babble from Federal Reserve members gave bond investors reason to hope rate hikes are finished. Bond yields have retraced some of their recent increase. The swings in the bond market, in the absence of a coherent policy framework, add an avoidable risk premium to real interest rates which has economic consequences.
04:1420/10/2023
CIO Global Livestream: Return of the bond vigilantes?
Since early May 10-year Treasury yields have risen from 3.3% to 4.8%, with around half of that increase coming since the start of September. Some investors have certainly found recent yield movements intimidating. Are the bond vigilantes back? And what are the bond markets telling us about growth, inflation, and policy rates from here? In our CIO Livestream, we discuss why, where, and how to put money to work today.
32:1119/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trying to talk down bond yields?'
No fewer than seven members of the Federal Reserve speak today. Some are highly qualified economists who grasp the complex structural upheaval affecting the US economy. Fed Chair Powell is also speaking. The initial success in talking down bond yields has reversed. The Powell Fed’s data dependency means markets overreact to every data release, and the farce on Capitol Hill makes things worse.
04:1319/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'War risks'
An explosion at a hospital in Gaza has subtly shifted financial markets’ response to the Israel-Hamas war. Initially markets gave little weight to the risk of a wider conflict. Since the explosion, the Palestinian, Egyptian, and Jordanian leaders have cancelled meetings with US President Biden. While safe-haven flows still seem to be muted, the gold price is now back in the range seen over the summer, and oil prices have moved a little higher.
04:3618/10/2023
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Looking for high yield
We expand on an outlook for long-term treasury yields in the months ahead, and preview next month’s Fed policy meeting, along with provide a look at the opportunity set for high yield in a portfolio and overall positioning recommendations within fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Alina Golant, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
21:5517/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'What happens if we don’t know what’s happening?'
The UK delayed some labor market data on concerns over quality. This is a growing global problem. Structural change and the fact that no one answers survey questions mean data is steadily less reliable in real time. With the Federal Reserve and the ECB both using data dependency rather than formulating an economic framework, there is a risk of greater volatility around policy expectations.
04:4217/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political noise'
Exit polls from Poland’s general election suggest the pro-EU opposition parties will have sufficient seats to form the next government. The final result may not be known until tomorrow. If polls reflect reality, this removes a potential source of financial markets uncertainty, reducing the risk of further division in the EU. Other divisions remain in place.
03:4616/10/2023
Washington Weekly Podcast: Updates on Israel and House Speaker search
In the wake of the devastating attacks on Israel this past weekend, we discuss what the response has consisted of and what to expect in the coming weeks. We also update on the search for US House Speaker and outline the implications to legislative progress on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affair Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy
10:5613/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fairy tales and reality'
US headline consumer price inflation rose, but the details hint at weakening pricing power and support for a soft economic landing. Most market-determined prices are softening. Durable goods deflation continues. The fairy tale of owners’ equivalent rent, where statisticians pretend people pay themselves an ever-rising monthly rent to live in the houses they own, was the main driver of higher prices.
04:3113/10/2023
Advanced Planning 2023 Year-End Guide Podcast
Listen to the authors of the 2023 Year-End Guide, Jennifer Lan and Premini Scandurra as they share their thoughts on some selected planning ideas from the guide. Jennifer is a Senior Wealth Strategist based in Dallas, TX, and Prem is a Wealth Strategist based in Los Angeles, CA. Host: Daniel Cassidy
11:5712/10/2023
Top of the Morning: Muni Market - Fall expectations
We discuss the drivers behind recent performance of the muni markets, along with a performance outlook, and highlight some portfolio themes to consider. Plus, spotlight performance of leveraged closed-end funds and what to expect in the months ahead. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, and Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
11:1812/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Slowly waving farewell to inflation?'
US consumer price inflation requires economists to become second-hand car dealers by proxy—the volatility of used car prices explains a lot of inflation uncertainty. Developed economies have experienced three inflation waves: transitory durable goods price inflation has been deflation since December 2022; energy prices are less disinflationary, but crude prices have moved more than consumer prices; profit-led inflation is under pressure as consumers rebel, but some sectors may still expand margin.
05:5812/10/2023
Investing in Preferreds: The risks and opportunities with Robert Giangregorio (Spectrum) and Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Giangregorio, Portfolio Manager, Spectrum Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy
27:1211/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US politicians at play'
It is not the best time for the US House of Representatives to be paralyzed. Voting for a speaker is expected today—markets are not, perhaps, expecting an edifying spectacle. Investors’ main concern is whether the government shuts down on 17 November. This might possibly be avoided even without a speaker in place, but not having a speaker adds risk to markets.
04:5611/10/2023
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - What is the data telling us?
Our conversation recaps a recent string of key economic data releases and what they’re revealing about the state of the US economy, along with how the data might influence monetary policy in the months the come. We also discuss how the data has been influencing recent market conditions, and how the market environment might progress through year-end. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
15:0110/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Bond yields moderate as rhetoric moderates'
US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen back to the levels of about a week ago. There are two narratives seeking to explain this—a safe-haven bid from Middle East violence, or more dovish comment from Federal Reserve members. The muted currency market response suggests it may be more about Fed expectations. Five members of the Fed are jostling one another for the media spotlight today.
04:2610/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Conflict fears push up oil prices'
Hamas’ attacks in Israel weakened the shekel and increased oil prices. The Bank of Israel pledged to intervene in the foreign exchange markets and provide dollar liquidity to domestic banks. There is little sign of a broad safe-haven bid for the dollar, at this stage. Investors’ concerns about an escalation of the conflict to include Iran have prompted oil price moves.
04:2009/10/2023
Top of the Morning: September Jobs Report and the week ahead
Our conversation offers thoughts and reflections on the latest employment report and health of the US labor market, along with a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman
07:2908/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More soft-landing signals?'
This is your monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and wages are not labor costs. There is only a weak link from average earnings to inflation pressures from labor costs. Otherwise, it is US employment report Friday—a survey that has been declining in quality in recent years, but which is still a market obsession. Because the US Federal Reserve is a reactive institution, today’s report will impact monetary policy expectations. The skew in market forecasts is for a weaker number.
04:1406/10/2023
Washington Weekly Podcast: Capitol Hill latest and the road ahead
Following a historic past few days up on Capitol Hill, we provide some background on how the series of events came to be and discuss the next-steps. We also touch on the political implications and what to expect next as we approach the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy
09:5905/10/2023
Top of the Morning: Diabetes and Obesity - Tactical Equity Theme
Our conversation addresses the global impact, on both a human and economic scale, of diabetes and obesity, along with the innovations and therapies being developed to combat these diseases. Featured is Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
17:2805/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'All the fault of the Fed (and ECB)?'
In the last few days, we have seen bonds sell off, then rally, and the oil price has suddenly plunged USD 5 per barrel. Equities have swung back and forth. What is going on? This, in short, is what happens when economists are not in charge.
04:5705/10/2023
Top of the Morning: ElectionWatch - Decision 2024
With yet another Presidential election cycle underway, the UBS Chief Investment Office has launched the ElectionWatch publication series to keep you informed on the progression of ‘Decision 2024’. We spend time outlining key policy priorities, provide tips for investors on how to navigate the cycle, and more. Plus, a timely look into this week’s historic developments within the US House of Representatives, and what the next several weeks might have in store leading up to the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
19:2204/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US politicians are incapable of doing anything'
Members of the US Congress are now incapable of doing anything. Financial markets are not surprised that members of the US Congress are incapable of doing anything. Former Speaker McCarthy confirmed he will not run again for Speaker. Investors only care whether House Republicans can get the extreme wing under control long enough to elect a speaker before the next government shutdown in mid-November.
03:4604/10/2023
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Taking inventory
We reflect on developments from over the past two weeks, such as notable economic data releases, the September FOMC meeting, and the sharp rise in longer maturity interest rates, and the impacts being felt across financial markets. We also touch on a market outlook and recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
16:5403/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Is profit-led inflation fading?'
The UK British Retail Consortium reported “fierce competition” (otherwise known as “competition”) driving falling food prices. Profit-led inflation, which tends to occur at the end of supply chains, may be in decline. Competition did not lower prices earlier, because consumers were sold a story that oil prices, global shortages, or the war in Ukraine caused inflation. Consumers are not now prepared to believe those stories, and profits and prices are under pressure.
04:5703/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The cost of not shutting down'
The US government shutdown has been delayed—but in the meantime, journalists and (more importantly) economists have had to waste time analyzing this nonsense. The uncertainty the fiscal farce periodically creates also carries an economic cost.
03:5602/10/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Good news Friday?'
Japan’s disinflation was on display with the Tokyo consumer price measure for September. As ever, local factors are important (service sector inflation was softened by weaker hotel prices, for instance). Retail sales seem to have a slowing momentum, which may keep domestically determined inflation pressures in check.
04:4229/09/2023
Washington Weekly Podcast: Government shutdown update, GOP debate takeaways
With the deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government only a few days away, Shane brings us up to speed on the latest as to where negotiations stand and how the next few days might unfold. We also touch on the impact of a government shutdown to services and the potential duration. Plus, takeaways from the second GOP Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy
12:0228/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Europe focuses on inflation, the US focuses on trousers'
German and Spanish preliminary September consumer price inflation is due. Energy prices are a focus of course, but transitory durable goods price inflation should continue to exert disinflation pressure. Controlling profit-led inflation pressures were an early focus in Spain, and will naturally be a fading disinflation force. They are still an issue in Germany.
04:2728/09/2023
Sustainable Investing Perspectives with Dan Roarty (AllianceBernstein) and Amantia Muhedini (UBS CIO)
We touch on takeaways from the 2023 voter proxy season, the overall health of the ESG, Sustainable fund landscape, as well as sustainability themes to consider for your portfolio. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Officer, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer for Sustainable Thematic Equities at AllianceBernstein. Host: Daniel Cassidy
22:1827/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The least entertaining farce in history'
The US fiscal farce continues, with government shutdown increasingly likely. A short-lived shutdown damages the US economy, but middle-income families have some immunity (it is middle-income spending that is softening the soft economic landing). The rest of the world cares less about this type of US growth slowdown as the US government does not import much. The rest of the world cares whether US consumers are spending.
04:3627/09/2023
How should I be positioned? with David Bianco (DWS) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
David joins us back in studio to share his thoughts on the shape of the US economy, relative to other regions, along with expectations for monetary policy and an outlook for equities. We also dive into allocation preferences across equities, fixed income and more. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and David Bianco, Chief Investment Officer Americas, DWS Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy
32:3026/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading away'
The World Trade Monitor reported an accelerated drop in July trade volumes (implying a faster drop in trade share of the world economy). Spending on fun is a service sector thing (though there may be some new clothes bought along the way). Some of this is down to the fact that the 2021 surge in goods demand has cannibalized future demand. Some of this may be a structural break in consumption patterns favoring services.
05:0026/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Time to complain'
A quiet data calendar is more of an issue for markets than in the past. The trashing of forward guidance by some central banks means that day-to-day data releases have assumed more importance for investors. Under Greenspan, Bernanke, or Yellen, markets had a long-term policy framework and a rogue data item could be downplayed. This is not the case with the Powell Federal Reserve.
04:0025/09/2023
CIO Monthly Global Livestream (Oct) - Back in balance?
A few months ago, achieving an economic ‘soft landing’ seemed a challenging task. Inflation was well above target, the labor market was extraordinarily tight, and the financial system was straining under the pressure of higher interest rates. Now today, while a ‘soft landing’ is certainly not yet assured, the economy does look like it much closer to being back ‘in balance’. In our view this creates an opportune moment for investors across asset classes. And in today’s CIO Livestream, we will discuss why, where, and how to put money to work today.
13:0824/09/2023
Washington Weekly Podcast: UN General Assembly, Government shutdown, Geopolitics
As the annual UN General Assembly comes to a close, we recap some notable themes and focuses from this year’s gathering, along with update you on the latest with respect to negotiations to avoid a US government shutdown. We also touch on some geopolitical points of interest, including Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy
15:1222/09/2023
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Robert Cohen (DoubleLine) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Cohen, Global Head of Developed Credit, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy
25:2222/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The art of doing nothing'
Several central banks have been demonstrating masterful inactivity recently. The world leader at masterful inactivity is the Bank of Japan, which did nothing overnight. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank both left policy rates unchanged yesterday. Differences in inflation mean inactivity by the Bank of Japan continues a loose policy stance, but real borrowing costs rise with inactivity by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank.
04:5522/09/2023
Top of the Morning: An expanded BRICS - More bark than bite
Following the recent BRICS summit in South Africa, we discuss developments and implications surrounding the possible expansion of the BRICS block. We also touch on allocation considerations for emerging market investors and where CIO is finding opportunity at the moment. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
12:2421/09/2023
Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The curse of the dot plot'
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged (quantitative policy continues to tighten). Fed Chair Powell implied higher rates for longer at the press conference, but investors have little (or no) reason to trust Powell’s forward guidance. Data, rather than pontification, will guide expectations.
05:1021/09/2023
Top of the Morning: US Energy Sector & Oil prices
Our conversation outlines CIO’s current thinking when it comes to the US energy sector, along with the current price outlook for both WTI crude oil and natural gas. We also spend some time discussing the risks to the sector, provide an update on the energy transition (a CIO longer-term investment theme), and where opportunities exist within the broader sector. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
17:0620/09/2023
Messages in Focus from the UBS Chief Investment Office
We outline some changes to CIO’s Messages in Focus, a set of high-conviction investment narratives that combine our top views across asset class preferences, short, medium, and longer-term themes, and alternatives. Learn more from Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
06:2820/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tightening policy by doing nothing'
Today someone with a law degree is going to try an explain to a group of people with English literature degrees something only people with economics degrees can really claim to understand. In other words, it is the Federal Reserve’s decision day, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The expectation is for no rate increase today.
05:0320/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Does anyone care about the Outlook?'
In the lull before the policy decision storm, the OECD Economic Outlook is published. This will get a lot of media attention (focusing on the bad news—it makes for better clickbait). Outlook tends to reflect views markets had priced in six months ago, and it may not properly include recent sizeable revisions to economic data and the economic narrative (e.g., the UK and Spain).
04:4219/09/2023
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Politics and oil, while waiting for the Fed'
The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates this week, but after Fed Chair Powell’s June 2022 policy errors trashed forward guidance nothing can be certain. Data dependency does not help when data itself is unreliable (and potentially politically biased).
04:3218/09/2023
Thoughts on the economy with Senior Economist, Brian Rose
Following what was a busy week on the macro calendar, including inflation prints, Brian provides his take on the data and overall reflections on the US economy. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.
11:1215/09/2023