Kevin Dennean joins us in-studio to explain the opportunity set behind the new Tactical US Equity Theme, ‘Select semis’, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. We also cover the cyclicality of semiconductor revenue growth, industry risks, current demand trends, and more. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology and Communications Services Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We get Spanish and German preliminary November consumer price inflation data today. Spanish data is expected to be stable, with a little more disinflation in Germany. Markets have, perhaps, recently become used to the idea that consumer price inflation surprises by being lower than expected. Durable goods price disinflation and resistance to profit-led inflation should push down on the headline number, but fading energy subsidies should slow disinflation forces in the coming months.

Hosted by Liam McCormick, Senior Strategist, UBS Family Advisory and Philanthropy Services

The extension of the ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war is, of course, primarily a humanitarian concern. Investors may interpret this as lessening the risks that the conflict broadens to the wider region.

After a quiet holiday week, investors are gearing up for the final few weeks of the year. We discuss what this final stretch might have in store for the markets and how that sets the stage for 2024. Plus, thoughts on the US consumer and the holiday spending season. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde testifies before the European Parliament. A central bank head speaking to the legislature is something markets often care about, but we hear so frequently from Lagarde that the chances of her saying anything original are very low.

With US consumers consuming, the day ahead for markets looks subdued. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but this is the fourth time in two weeks we have heard from Lagarde. It seems unlikely that she will add anything markets care to hear.

US consumers are gearing up for the most important celebration on the national calendar; Black Friday sales. Increasing consumer awareness of profit-led inflation may shift focus from flashy headline discount numbers to the question “is this price lower than it was a year ago?”. Deflation of durable goods means that for big ticket items the answer is probably “yes”.

Since the COVID pandemic of 2020, we’ve entered a new world: One defined by economic, social and political uncertainty - but also profound technological change. 2023 was a historic year for markets. Bond yields reached their highest level in more than 15 years. The first trillion-dollar artificial intelligence company was crowned. And the US economy powered ahead, confounding expectations. What can we expect in the year and decade ahead?

Central bankers keep stressing rates will stay high—the Federal Reserve minutes signalled much the same message. Markets are not paying attention. There is a sense that central bankers are trying to manipulate the bond market vigilantes—but bond traders are like three-year olds at a party who are high on sugar and will not be controlled. Investors are increasingly looking at the disinflationary details of advanced economy consumer prices and speculating on rate cuts having to come sooner.

Our conversation spotlights the landscape for climate-related lawsuits, including recent developments within California and across the globe. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jonathan Bailey, Global Head of ESG & Impact Investing at Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The United States does not have a monopoly on fiscal incoherence. Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court banned shuffling money between different projects, prompting a government spending freeze. The German government may have to look back at 2023 and say “that looks like an emergency”; emergencies allow rules to be broken. Meanwhile the EU seems set to declare that most of the EU is breaking or sort-of breaking fiscal rules.

We take inventory of the drivers behind the recent market momentum, including the October inflation data, as well as outline market expectations over the next six weeks as we begin to close out 2023 and look ahead to the new year. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The end of this week marks the most important celebration in US consumers’ calendar—the Black Friday sales. This is primarily focused on US consumers spending money they do not have on things they do not need, but online retail and transnational companies have globalized the event somewhat. This year will be interesting as consumers have shifted in favor of having fun rather than buying stuff.

We discuss takeaways from the APEC Summit, namely as it relates to the mending of US-China relations, the deal reached which averted a shutdown of the US government, and an update on the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We catch-up on the municipal market with Kathleen McNamara for a performance update and outlook. We also outline some portfolio themes and where to find opportunity within the asset class. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Financial Times reports Iranian officials signalled no desire to see the Israel-Hamas war broaden in the region. Markets seem content to assume no wider conflict. Crude oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since the summer.

As we continue with our series of year ahead conversations, Alejo Czerwonko walks you through an outlook for Asia, Latin America, and EMEA. We touch on investment considerations for your portfolio and the risks to be mindful of across the globe. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer with Emerging Markets Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UBS Chief Investment Office has characterized the year ahead as a ‘new world’ - Jason Draho explains what elements have come together to remake the geopolitical sphere and how you should position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US retail sales reinforced the resilience of the US consumer. That resilience depends on middle-income consumers, and middle-income consumer resilience depends on real spending power being better than headline data suggests. Inflation pressures continue to moderate, and today’s US import price data should show falling prices.

As year-end quickly approaches, we reflect on 2023 performance drivers and preview return expectations over the near-to-medium term. We also provide some thoughts around rate volatility and outline positioning recommendations within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ reaction to US consumer price inflation reflects Federal Reserve policy failings. There is nothing wrong in markets pricing three rate cuts in 2024—it seems the most likely outcome. But abrupt reactions to a single data release reflects the damage that excessive reliance on “data dependence” can produce.

The unusual and hard-to-explain data for the US economy throughout 2023 has at times puzzled both investors and the markets - might the 2023 macro landscape be indicative of a "Roaring '20s" macro regime? We discuss with Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

October US consumer price inflation headlines have two significant factors. Health insurance calculations are changing and are likely to add to the inflation rate—but of course changing how inflation is calculated does not change inflation reality for consumers. And the fictional owners’ equivalent rent data should contribute less to inflation, again without changing reality.

The economic outlook is more or less well behaved. Economic soft (or softish) landings seem on track, with slowing growth and inflation pressures moderating a little faster than expected.

We begin by spotlighting the UBS Veterans Network and how they support our veterans. Shane then reflects on Election Day and discusses the implications of the results, along with several Congressional retirement announcements, to Decision 2024. We also update on the status of talks to avert a shutdown of the US government and provide some takeaways from Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Israel and the region. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK reportedly grew 0% in the third quarter. To any normal person, the difference between 0% and –0.1% growth is not noticeable. For the media, it means that they cannot call this a “recession.” UK growth was slowed by weaker housing activity, with evidence of higher interest rates doing damage.

China’s consumer prices are falling again, and producer prices remain in deflation. The consumer price move is driven by pork prices, which have zero effect outside China. Globally, the consumer prices of imports are mainly about domestic labor costs, so China’s producer price deflation has very limited direct global consequence.

Economists risk being trampled by the herd of central bankers rushing towards media microphones. Bank of England Governor Bailey and Federal Reserve Chair Powell are both speaking, as are several European Central Bank members. Do investors care what they say? Probably not. Markets are comfortable that monetary policy rates have peaked; central bank speak is unlikely to change that. Any defensive hawkish rhetoric implying rate hikes are possible is likely to be met with a cynical “they would say that, wouldn’t they?”.

The US holds elections today. The US election cycle means these are limited in number, but there is a state referendum on abortion rights and hints at the balance of power between Republicans, MAGA Republicans, and Democrats. While markets are unlikely to respond, with 2024 a politically charged year today’s votes are very exciting for political-economic geeks.

In the wake of what was a memorable week in financial markets, with notable moves across equities and treasuries, Jason explains the market moves and what the road ahead for markets might look like, along with how to think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. We also spend time on macro developments, such as the Oct Jobs Report and the Nov FOMC meeting. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market reactions last week highlight the dangers of central banks bleating about data dependency without explaining their medium-term framework or how they expect policy to transmit to the real economy. It leaves investors tending to react very strongly to individual data items, even when (as with the US employment data) the figures are not precise and will likely be revised significantly.

Volatility has increased in recent weeks as investors digest the latest economic and earnings data, sharp moves in interest rates, the Israel-Hamas war and more. David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, will break down key market drivers, our outlook moving forward and how to position portfolios.

We touch on Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Israel and the region, along with efforts from the Biden Administration on crime prevention, limiting China’s access to new chip design technology, and an executive order aimed at cutting risk associated with artificial intelligence. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We recap a busy week that was including a look at the October employment report, takeaways from the Fed’s November policy decision, and an assessment of Q3 corporate earnings reports. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today is the monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages. When the composition of the labor market shifts, the gap between the two is likely to grow. In other words, it is time for the US employment report. The UK recently admitted that no can trust its labor market data, and it is worth remembering that US non-farm payrolls is based on a survey with a less than 50% response rate.

We discuss an outlook for markets and macro conditions and revisit why you should consider an allocation into alternatives as part of your portfolio strategy in order to achieve portfolio diversification. Featured are Daniel Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy and UBS Wealth Way Solutions Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Villalon, Principal and Co-Head of the Portfolio Solutions Group, AQR Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the opportunity set when it comes to investing in infrastructure, including what to be mindful of as an investor when participating in infrastructure related investments. Featured are Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist for the Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, as well as Brookfield’s Sam Pollock - Sam is Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield’s Infrastructure business and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meets, with no plausible justification for a rate increase. Slowing price and wage inflation mean that real interest rates continue to rise. A growing economy normally requires liquidity growth, but quantitative tightening is withdrawing liquidity.

We outline the opportunity set for investing in India, along with the trajectory for economic growth and the risk considerations to be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK’s BRC shop price index registered another meaningful amount of disinflation, as the profit-led inflation episode seems to be working towards a conclusion. Food prices in this index do include the discounts of supermarkets’ dual pricing structure, and those are not in consumer price data, so the slowing of the food sub index will be greater than the disinflation of the official numbers.

The week ahead will deliver investors a lot of information to digest, accounting for central bank policy meetings, economic data and numerous Q3 corporate earnings results. We discuss what is most relevant, what could move markets, and how to be positioned accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The word “recession” is a curse cast on the economics profession. There is no formal, universal definition. The media’s obsession with “two consecutive quarters of negative growth” is increasingly meaningless in the modern world. Output economic measures like GDP depend on how many people are working, and how hard those people are working. Thus, countries with declining populations are more likely to have falling GDP, but are not more likely to have falling living standards.

Our conversation provides some background on the newly elected Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, along with a look at his agenda priorities in the months ahead. We also update on the Israel-Hamas War and what the weeks ahead might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

When the economic history of the early 21st century comes to be written, the opening sentence in a bold font should be “never go short the hedonism of the US consumer”. Middle-income consumers have lower inflation than consumer price data implies, giving them more spending power. Historically, this would have sent them flocking to the shopping mall—nowadays, they are spending enough at Taylor Swift concerts to reportedly make the singer a billionaire.

Vincent joins us to discuss the impact rate volatility has had to the broader markets and how conditions might evolve from here. We also discuss the prospects for a recession to occur in the US, an outlook for monetary policy, and considerations when it comes to positioning across fixed Income and equities. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, Amundi. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases the first guess of third-quarter GDP—less than half the data used in the final estimate is available today. Recent UK and European GDP revisions have changed their growth narratives in recent years. Historically, first estimates are revised over one percentage point (up or down), so today’s number is not precise.

China has announced a fiscal stimulus, increasing the deficit limit from 3% to 3.8% of GDP. The money is focused on infrastructure spending. China was expected to meet this year’s growth target of around 5%. The rush to stimulate at this point in the year suggests concern about growth momentum in 2024, or a worry that living standard reality is not as good as the reported GDP figures imply.