The Eurozone has been burdened with a further 0.25pps rate increase. As most current drivers of inflation in the Eurozone are not interest rate sensitive, the inflation impact of this rate hike is questionable. ECB President Lagarde attempted hawkishness at the press conference, but markets ignored the tone. No one has time to pay attention to every comment Lagarde makes. Lagarde speaks again today.

In Europe, 22 people will meet for two hours to try and decide central bank policy for a continent. What could possibly go wrong? An ECB that is more focused on the present than the direction the economy is taking seems likely to raise rates again.

US August consumer price inflation is subject to durable goods deflation and profit-led disinflation, but energy prices will add to the headline inflation rate. The details matter. The fictional owners' equivalent rent price is still pushing up inflation. As no one pays this, middle-income homeowners enjoy a lower inflation reality. Regional variations (high inflation in Florida, deflation in Alaska) may be politically important ahead of 2024 elections.

It’s never too early to begin planning for the annual open enrollment period. Our conversation outlines for you a checklist for selecting work benefits. We also touch on how work benefits can contribute to longer-term financial goals, and other work benefits related considerations. Featured is Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK labor market data was not that exciting. There were bonus payments for health workers and civil servants. Full-time self-employment fell. Unemployment and underlying average earnings growth were unmoved. Investors might need to adjust their thinking on productivity-with higher output than first reported, and with lower employment, productivity may be higher. That has wage cost implications.

With the US economy heating up, we examine the recent data and what it means for monetary policy, both near-term and in the months to come. We also touch on why the market appears to be lacking direction as of late and how to consider positioning your portfolio in light of the current macro environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The G20 met and issued some kind of statement. An accurate reflection of the gathering would be “leaders met and took selfies”. Markets really do not care.

Hear the current investment views, allocation recommendations and market outlook from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featuring David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

We recap the week that was, including the Fed’s Beige Book and recent performance of equities. We also discuss a performance outlook for equities through year-end and how to consider positioning within the asset class. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US government is investigating Huawei, a Chinese company, over concerns about its chip technology. This follows the Chinese government’s ban on products from Apple, a US company, from being used in government offices. Such moves are often dressed up as national security, but the turmoil of structural change will continue to fuel economic nationalism. Expectations of economic nationalism are difficult to price into financial markets.

With Congress back in Washington DC from summer recess, we discuss how lawmakers are working to avoid a shutdown of the US government, along with other legislative priorities. We also preview this weekend’s G-20 Summit in India, update on negotiations involving the United Auto Workers, and discuss reports of potential arms sales to Russia by North Korea. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As AI continues to make headlines, the UBS Chief Investment Office is pleased to extend the conversation beyond our four-part Summer of AI series. Hear Paul Baier, Co-Founder & CEO of GAI Insights, discuss with Anthony Pastore, how AI is being put to use across industries.

In one sense the global economic story is very clear-but is it obvious enough even Federal Reserve Chair Powell will notice? Cooling consumer goods demand is keeping disinflation pressures alive. China’s August export data showed another (expected) significant drop. The data is now consistent with counterparts’ trade data (unlike earlier this year when China reported exports no one seemed to be importing).

Our conversation walks you through some key provisions for plan sponsors and individuals, as well as a look at what is coming down the pike in the way of provisions for the year ahead. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Bonnie Treichel, Founder and Chief Solutions Officer of Endeavor Retirement. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Brent crude oil benchmark moved above USD90 per barrel, following reports of an extension to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. This will likely trigger angst about inflation. Oil prices in late 2022 were moving around USD80 per barrel. However, deflation forces for durable goods and disinflation forces as profit-led inflation is squeezed are still in place. If the oil price persists at current levels, it may slow disinflation rather than reignite inflation.

The UK BRC August shop sales data showed a moderate pick-up in the value of sales, but the UK Barclaycard data showed a slower growth in spending. The difference reflects fuel sales and restaurant spending. Both numbers are nominal, and so imply a declining volume of sales as the recent profit-led inflation has eroded household spending power. The UK consumer still has priorities-spending on air travel was strong.

The economic calendar is subdued, with US markets closed. Revisions in last Friday’s US jobs report adjusted employment levels lower. Payrolls data was distorted by the actors’ strike (although actors may still be working as baristas, restaurant serving staff, etc.). Participation rates are rising, labor market churn is falling, and the picture is very much “soft economic landing.”

As we conclude another week, Senior Economist Americas, Brian Rose, breaks down the August employment report and reviews other notable macro data releases from the past week. We discuss how recent data might influence the Fed’s policy decision at the September meeting, the overall health of the US economy, and preview the week ahead. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is US employment report Friday. This is your monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages, and certainly not wage costs. The averaging process makes this data sensitive to changes in the composition of the workforce. The central story of the US labor market today is of a society getting over a collective mid-life crisis.

The hedonism of the US consumer is revealed with July personal income and spending data. The spending numbers should be resilient. Middle-income families have job security, face an inflation rate significantly lower than reported (unless Floridian), and still have savings. This is not true for lower income groups, but economic data tends to be plutocratic.

Today’s data calendar is dominated by inflation. Australian July consumer prices rose significantly less than expected-and while not a major focus for global investors, it reinforces the general disinflation narrative (and the idea that profit-led inflation is in retreat).

We explain CIO’s preference for emerging market equities in the current environment, along with explore pockets of opportunity within Brazil, Chile, India and China. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We touch on regulatory and legislative actions within Europe aimed at sustainability, notably as it relates to final ESG disclosure rules under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (or CRSD), along with the global investment implications surrounding the Nature Restoration Law. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Officer, and Nikita Singhal, Co-Head of Sustainable Investment & ESG at Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK BRC shop price index showed further disinflation in August. The moderating inflation was led by food inflation slowing, which may not entirely translate into official consumer prices. The risk with profit-led inflation is that companies lose customer loyalty. As attacks on profit-led inflation have increased, UK supermarkets have responded with two-tier pricing offering discounts to customers with loyalty cards. Those discounts appear in the BRC data, but not in the official consumer price data.

We provide a recap of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium, along with examine how recent contradictory data and conflicting interpretations of that data are pulling markets in opposing directions. Plus, a look at how factors such as AI and China have been influencing the markets as of late. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole summer camp for central bankers. A simple apology is all that is required, but a speech is what we get. For all the hype, it probably does not matter that much.

The road ahead to decision 2024 will be a long one, though last night offered voters a first look at some of the candidates vying for the White House. We recap the notable topics debated and how the candidates resonated. Plus, we preview what will be a packed fall legislative agenda on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation examines global economic conditions and whether an allocation to emerging market assets makes sense in the current environment. Plus, we bring you up to speed on the BRICS summit and related developments. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US announced that fewer jobs were created in the year to March than originally reported. The US still created lots of jobs, but probably around 300,000 fewer than first estimated. Given how much guesswork goes into US employment data these days, this is not a surprise. Middle income consumers still feel secure in their jobs, so they are not saving out of fear of future unemployment. The revisions imply slightly higher productivity and slightly lower labor costs.

After 40 years of cutting rates and doing ‘whatever it takes’ to flood the world with liquidity, last year the Federal Reserve and other central banks began what would become the fastest set of rate hikes ever. The elephants of central banking are still dancing, but they now look less likely to crush the global economy over our tactical investment horizon.

We revisit our hedge fund conversation by providing a performance update for the asset class, along with a look at how hedge funds can serve as a diversification approach during periods of volatility. We also touch on risk considerations and how to incorporate hedge funds into a diversified investment portfolio. Featured is Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is little on the calendar today (former US Treasury Secretary Summers has, of course, been speaking). Assorted business sentiment opinion polls will be clamoring for attention with all the sophisticated appeal of a three year old having a temper tantrum.

Real yields helped push US 10-year yields higher yesterday. Caution is needed when interpreting market moves in the dull days of summer, but there are concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer. Fed policy fears are difficult to control, because Fed Chair Powell’s 2022 policy errors trashed forward guidance. Work from the San Francisco Fed suggests policymakers are more divided than normal.

China cut its one year loan prime rate, but less than markets had anticipated. For those bewildered by the plethora of policy tweaks in China, it is best to look at the bigger picture. China is easing policy, but the focus may be on supporting rather than stimulating consumption-lowering costs for existing borrowers more than encouraging stronger credit growth.

Hear perspective on recent performance drivers, investor sentiment, a performance outlook and positioning. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Chris Roberti, Chief Marketing Officer with MacKay Shields (NY Life). Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK consumer price inflation fell, as expected. The big decline in energy price inflation was obviously going to lower headline inflation rates—this is a function of administered prices. Food price inflation slowed, though the official inflation rate exaggerates actual inflation as supermarkets’ two-tier pricing structures mean most people face lower food prices than are recorded. The fanatical desire to go on vacation supported leisure travel prices.

The hedonism of the US consumer is a keystone of the global economy. Today’s US retail sales number matters. It is also complicated. Retail sales do not capture most of the switch to spending on services. Some of this could be structural (flexible working may encourage more spending on services). The headline data hides divergence—low income households have less spending power than middle income consumers. Citizens of some states like Florida may struggle to spend in stores when utility bills are soaring.

Our conversation summarizes recent performance across asset classes, including equities and the recent impact of higher rates to equity returns. We also touch on how rates might evolve from here and how to think about positioning your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The calendar is so quiet today that even former US Treasury Secretary Summers does not appear to be speaking. While a rational market would not be moving in the absence of new information, markets are rarely rational and so silly stories will be amplified.

Learn about the applications of AI with Sam Charrington, Founder and Principal Analyst, TWIML AI Podcast (This Week in Machine Learning and AI).

A conversation with Rajiv Jain of GQG partners on the implications of disruptive technologies and the opportunity set in artificial intelligence. What are the key signposts to monitor going forward?

We recap the week that was, including a look at July CPI data, commentary from several Fed officials, the back-end of the Q2 corporate reporting season and more. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Europe is not offering much entertainment with its data calendar. There are final July consumer price data from some provinces of the Euro empire, but the headline number is almost never revised. There are more details in the data, and that can excite economists (who are exciting people), but not enough to animate investors.

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Doug Baker, Head of Preferred Securities and Portfolio Manager, Nuveen Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US detailed restrictions on investment in China’s technology sector. Reports suggest the UK may follow. This is not surprising, but is another manifestation of deglobalization (political interference in global trade / capital flows). As structural change sweeps the economy, scapegoat economics is likely to increase-blaming foreigners is always convenient. That encourages prejudice politics and economic nationalism. Whatever the merits of individual sanctions, the result is less efficiency.

Hear perspective on recent performance drivers, investor sentiment, a performance outlook and positioning. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Nick Venditti, Senior Portfolio Manager on the Municipal Fixed Income team with Allspring Global Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s July consumer price inflation rate turned negative, joining producer prices in deflation (in year-over-year terms). On official numbers, China ranks behind the US and ahead of the EU in terms of size. Why does China’s deflation not matter more to the rest of the world?

The US offers June trade data today. China already published July trade numbers-they were weaker than expected, and the first quarter’s trade data was revised lower. Economists have been suspicious about China’s first quarter export data (China’s reported exports were not matched by other countries’ imports). Revising the numbers now suggests weaker first quarter GDP.