Preliminary consumer price inflation numbers for April are due from Germany and Spain. There are no sizeable base effects or peculiarities in these numbers. The expectation for both counties is an inflation rate similar to March—although the consensus range is moderately wide, and unwinding profit-led inflation is difficult to forecast.

Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan is finding opportunity within equities, as well as the risks to be mindful of as we approach 2H24. Featured is Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard reflects on April’s market performance and whether potential adjustments to the timing of Fed rate cuts could impact the prospects for growth. We also touch on how investors should consider positioning for rising geopolitical risk, and on the lighter side, share some reading and movie tips for a Spring weekend!

This week we examine what national polling in currently pointing to for the race for the White House, including takeaways from this week’s Pennsylvania primary. Shane also outlines some upcoming agenda items and focuses for Congress, and shares his expectations for Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets exhibited a naïve belief in the accuracy of economic data yesterday. US first quarter GDP will probably be revised stronger, and hinted at future consumer strength. The data does put more focus on today’s personal spending figures—and in particular the personal consumer expenditure deflators.

Jason and Paul rejoin the podcast in-studio to discuss the second edition of the new CEO Briefing Book quarterly series. We dive into how the macroeconomic environment, the landscape for corporate transactions, and geopolitics have all evolved thus far in 2024, and in turn what that means for corporate operating environments and decision making. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases its first guess at first quarter GDP (a generally accurate number should be available sometime around 2029 or 2030). The rapid pace of structural change means that increasing amounts of economic activity are likely being missed in this sort of data. Overall, there should be some signs of a slowdown, but middle-income consumers will still provide resilience.

As US taxes are expected to rise (especially for wealthy families), spanning income tax, capital gains tax, and estate tax, Justin and Ainsley join to discuss strategies that investors can leverage in order to prepare. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Matt rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Matt McLennan, Co-Head of the Global Value Team, First Eagle Investment Management, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Senate has passed legislation defunding parts of Gen Z, with a ban on TikTok being allowed in US app stores unless the Chinese owner sells within 270 days. This potentially removes the economic activity generated by US content creators (influencers reportedly have an average income of over USD120,000—albeit with a very uneven income distribution). This economic activity may be underreported in official data, but it still takes place.

Our conversation outlines performance expectations for fixed income over the next few months, along with CIO’s current thinking on Fed rate cuts in 2024. We also review allocation fixed income allocation preferences. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Another blast of business sentiment opinion polls will be trying to get attention today. European business sentiment has tended to underreport economic reality. The gut instincts of respondents do not necessarily match an objective assessment of the facts. The challenge is that any gains in sentiment might reflect improving reality, but might also reflect sentiment catching up with reality without the real world outlook shifting.

The markets have been faced in recent weeks with notable economic data releases, updated views on the Fed’s course for monetary policy, rising geopolitical concerns, and Q1 corporate reporting. Jason Draho addresses all of these factors and how they’re impacting markets, and shares guidance when it comes to positioning your portfolio. Plus, Jason weighs in as to whether the US economy has already “landed”. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Structural change is a challenge. Data becomes less reliable, and traditional economic relationships break. Last week, the UK reported London house prices underperformed the rest of the country, reflecting shifts triggered in part by flexible working. That trend changes real estate demand, consumption patterns, travel patterns, productivity, and leisure time—and tends to mean that economic activity is under-reported. This is why details in data are increasingly important.

Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise following Iran’s attack on Israel. To discuss the latest developments and what could happen next, Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management, is joined by Admiral James Stavridis, Vice Chair of Global Affairs at The Carlyle Group, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management, and Jay Dobson, CIO Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist, UBS Global Wealth Management.

In the wake of recent direct conflict between Israel and Iran, Shane recaps where the conflict stands and what the response has consisted of. We also preview a key weekend up on Capitol Hill where the House is slated to vote on legislation aimed at delivering several aid packages, with House Speaker Johnson’s future in question. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard explains how a young statistician saved the lives of many Air Force pilots during WWII - while the famous anecdote dates back almost 80 years, it still has lessons for investors. We also cover what the recent annual IMF meeting suggests about the global economy, and in turn, the potential road ahead for Fed rate cuts.

Financial markets are having to assess political risks—something markets are ill-equipped to do. US officials confirmed Israel had attacked Iran, with reports of an explosion in Isfahan. The market response was a classic (perhaps unthinking) safe-haven trade. Does Iran now respond? Iranian media is downplaying the attacks, and it might be difficult for Iran’s government to retaliate if the narrative in Isfahan is “nothing to see here”.

US President Biden called China “xenophobic” in comments highlighting China’s structural economic challenges. Biden also pledged higher taxes on US consumers of China’s steel and aluminum. US Congress lives in terror that China will learn the “Texas hold‘em” TikTok dance before Speaker Johnson has mastered the moves, and is proposing to tie a TikTok ban to aid measures for Ukraine and Israel.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is not an economist. Not everyone can be an economist, but central bank heads probably should be economists. Yesterday, Powell stated reaching 2% inflation was taking longer than expected. The US PCE deflator is 2.5% y/y, the core PCE deflator is 2.8% y/y, and harmonized inflation is 2.4% y/y. Imprecise data means most economists regard a 2% inflation target as meaning a 1%-to-3% range. The fictional owners’ equivalent rent may be taking longer than expected to reach 2%, but that is not the same thing as inflation.

Listen to our first ElectionWatch virtual event, where Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, was joined by Frank Kelly, Founder & Managing Partner at Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, Mike Rogers, Former Director of the National Security Agency, and David Rubenstein, Co-Founder of The Carlyle Group.

This new monthly podcast focuses on topics that help families understand the basics of investing and financial planning at three different levels of depth (Definition, Identification, and Implementation). Featured to discuss the topic of “risk” are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s official first quarter GDP data reported surprising strength. Unsurprisingly, this surprise will make the official 2024 growth target easier to achieve. March economic data was less supportive, with weakness evident in production and retail sales figures. The industrial data may reflect the ongoing pivot away from goods by global consumers. Amidst the general hedonism of yesterday’s US retail sales data, the trend away from spending on durables and in favor of spending on services was evident.

Following an eventful couple of weeks in the markets, spanning upside surprises in macro data to geopolitical developments, Jason Draho brings us up to speed on CIO’s current outlook (including the forecast for Fed rate cuts) and portfolio positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are relatively calm in the wake of events in the Middle East. This may seem peculiar, but markets rarely price in extreme tail risks. Iran indicated it considers the matter concluded. US President Biden has urged restraint. Signs from the Israeli war cabinet suggest a response, but there is no idea of scale. The G7 has been as effective as the G7 ever is, talking about sanctions against Iran without agreeing on action.

Kathleen and Jon discuss a wide range of topics, including considerations when it comes to muni duration, sector preferences (including tax-exempt), implications of the 2024 election, and much more. Featured is Jonathan Mondillo, Head of US Fixed Income with abrdn, and Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard explains what investors can learn from stock market all-time-highs, placing the US and global economy into the context of a “new world order” rising, and how the UBS House View offers guidance in a fast-changing world (plus, what Bob Marley had to say about "what's wealth?”).

Our conversation revisits ongoing debate up on Capitol Hill over aid packages for both Ukraine and Israel, and what this all could potentially mean for House Speaker Mike Johnson’s tenure. We also touch on renewed bi-partisan efforts within the US Senate to stem advanced technology sharing with US adversaries. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde signalled nothing markets did not already know yesterday. Rate cuts are coming. Economically, the dissenters on the governing council are probably correct and rate cuts would be better now—but precise timing on monetary policy is less important when the objective is cyclical (precision matters when the aim is liquidity or managing disorderly markets).

Inevitably markets reacted to US consumer price inflation headlines, but the details did matter. There is very strong evidence against inflation stickiness. Aside from rents and fictitious owners’ equivalent rents, there is deflation in almost every consumer price subcategory somewhere in the US. With collapsing clothing prices in Tampa or plunging communication prices in Chicago, it is difficult to argue that structural inflation stickiness exists when every key sector has deflation somewhere in the country.

With a strong Q1 behind us, Melda and David outline their thoughts on current valuations, along with a performance outlook for US equities. We also cover notable headwinds to performance and discuss positioning preferences within the US and around the globe. Featured are Melda Mergen, Global Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Each quarter we will dive into what’s new amongst the six thematic focuses of the UBS Chief Investment Office, as outlined within the new Longer Term Themes Quarterly publication. Our inaugural conversation focuses on how the ‘space economy’ intersects with one of the six thematic clusters, security & critical infrastructure, along with potential implications of the 2024 election outcome to the space economy. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The market calendar is mainly noise. Quite a lot of that noise has come from Federal Reserve members. Investors can pick whichever view they want, to confirm whatever preconceived policy views they hold. Recent remarks offer a choice of three rate cuts, vigilance against inflation, or too soon to cut rates. The range of views matters less than in the past, given the Powell Fed’s weird unanimity of decision-making.

Our conversation focuses on the landscape for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including thoughts around investment considerations. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets await US March consumer price inflation data, due for release on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s 2022 policy errors elevated the importance of consumer price inflation, and thus downgraded the importance of actual, real-world inflation. The details of the inflation data may be important. City-based inflation figures, and the trends in price levels (and inflation) for high frequency purchases are politically relevant ahead of the November elections.

Our conversation provides some takeaways from this week’s phone meeting between President’s Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, along with Treasury Secretary Yellen’s visit to Beijing. We also discuss where Congressional negotiations stand around an aid package for Ukraine. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is US employment report Friday (or “average earnings are not wages” day). Since mid-last year, the US has added almost 1.60 million jobs, and has also lost almost 0.25 million jobs depending on which bit of the employment report you read. Labor markets are changing—flexible working, changing industries like online retail, new jobs like social media influencers, the rise and fall of job hopping, side hustles and more self-employment, automation, volunteering, early retirement, and population movements. Data is not capturing these changes properly.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke yesterday. Today, no fewer than five members of the Fed are speaking on the economic outlook, presumably to clarify what Fed Chair Powell “meant to say”. Actually, Powell’s speechwriters did not say much controversial, keeping rate cut expectations alive. Media comment around this has tended to sensationalize—inflation is branded as sticky (it is not), and above target (moot point).

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on the economic outlook today. An explanation of how Fed policy transmitted (or failed to transmit) to inflation would be interesting. Instead, comments are likely to focus on the prospect for three rate cuts this year, in line with other Fed speakers.

With US equity markets trading near all-time-highs, we share considerations when it comes equity diversification via emerging markets, notably within Asia’s technology sector. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK British Retail Consortium’s shop price index exhibited more disinflation than had been expected, with prices rising 1.3% y/y. This measure does include the discounting applied to loyalty card holders in the two-tier pricing system (consumer price inflation excludes this), and retailers have been keen to shore up customer loyalty with selective discounts as resentment about profit-led inflation has increased.

Our conversation outlines the thesis behind CIO’s most preferred view of the US Industrials sector. We also touch on sub-sector preferences, investment themes, and headwinds associated with the sector. Featured is Nathaniel Gabriel, Industrials & Materials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation recaps the recently signed Government Funding Bill, and examines efforts from within the House of Representatives to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson. We also check in on what recent Presidential polls are pointing to, and discuss Federal support in response to the bridge collapse in Baltimore earlier this week. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the implications of potential outcomes of the 2024 US Elections to emerging market economies and markets. We also cover positioning considerations, spanning China, Mexico, India and Brazil. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The latest guess at UK GDP in the fourth quarter left headline numbers unchanged, while the details shifted. Strike action undermined fourth quarter activity. The data will be revised for years to come, and history suggests it will be revised stronger. Things like productivity gains from flexible working and additional income streams from side hustles are harder to capture in early GDP guesses.

View Points is a new weekly podcast series which focuses on global market and macro developments. Tune in each week to hear timely insights from Burkhard Varnholt. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In a relatively quiet data calendar, Spanish March consumer price inflation gets some attention. The expectation is for a modest increase in the headline rate and a modest decline in the core rate. However the consensus is built on a relatively small number of forecasts across a relatively wide range of views, so comparisons need to be treated with caution.