Sign in
Education
Business
Annex Wealth Management
Join the members of the Annex Wealth Management Investment Team as they discuss the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats in the markets and economy.
Early resolution for 2024? Balance.
The buy-the-dip-reflex seems to be strong while the slow slide into stagnation is a weakness. There's an opportunity to get back into balance but data dependence equals skittish investors.
20:5311/12/2023
Chipotle buy-now-pay-later?
Besides learning why one of the members of the Investment Team uses buy-now-pay-later for Chipotle, there are plenty of other things to talk about. Yields are down but asset prices are up but is there weakness in the Magnificent Seven? Opportunity might exist in underperforming sectors that are poised to turn but the threat remains whether or not the Fed will stick the landing.
22:4204/12/2023
Two PHDs walk into a podcast....
Double PHD's on this episode. Good news IS good news but weak holiday guidance is an issue. Genuine growth is scarce, demands a premium, and is an opportunity while a longer rate pause with faster cuts is a threat.
30:3327/11/2023
Are we seeing end of the year FOMO?
Santa's sleigh is being pulled by some Bulls --but risk reward is looking risky. Dumpster diving is back on the menu but the Fed is hurting the government more than Warren Buffet.
24:4320/11/2023
It's a cliche, but when do we NOT have volatility?
Potential earnings improvement is a strength while mid and small cap stocks underperform. For opportunities; the '40' part of a 60/40 portfolio could have good risk-adjusted returns but rising unemployment is a threat.
18:2613/11/2023
The Powell Pause and the power of lower expectations.
What the pause means for fixed income and equity markets is a strength while equity valuations remain a weakness. Expectations are low, that's an opportunity. That along with short positioning has led to a decent rally so far. The Fed remains the threat.
18:5906/11/2023
Who's got bad breadth?
Artificial intelligence is here and a definite strength Meanwhile, bad breadth pulls equity returns lower and is a weakness. Look to risk/reward for stock and bonds for opportunities and be mindful of the threat of increasingly tighter conditions.
22:1130/10/2023
Time for a Powell pause?
The consumer is like the Energizer Bunny...but bonds shouldn't be this nerve wracking. On the other side, if you can hold them, bonds might be an opportunity. Watch for a rally before reality, because reality eventually bites.
19:3923/10/2023
A busy week for economic data. Plus, a threat to the munchies.
Classic defensives did their work while the consumer might be starting to crack. Opportunity might exist by looking at what hasn't worked while the Fed could be late to the game....again.
19:1016/10/2023
Does Jawboning Still Work?
This week will yield plenty of data for experts to inspect. As inflation starts to diminish, Powell may have painted himself into a corner given some of his statements. And given today’s mass/micromedia – is jawboning still an effective tool when it comes to the economy?
20:0809/10/2023
A bit of a lost year for bonds
Energy and employment are strengths while yield sensitive assets remain weak. There are opportunities via reasonable valuations and increased bond yields but risk premiums and tight bond spreads pose threats.
16:1002/10/2023
Quality. An often-used term, but what does it mean?
This quarter, defense has been the best defense. Weakness exists with yields up but everything else down. Opportunities exist to lock in rates and hedge against inflation. Threats include prices the new marginal buyer of Treasurys is going to pay.
19:4425/09/2023
Too much worry over this week's Fed meeting?
Defensive rotation is a strength while elevated mortgage rates pose a threat. There are opportunities in China and emerging markets but a floor under inflation remains a threat.
19:0718/09/2023
China shows up twice
Strength in high yield while Chinese governance is a weakness. Opportunities exist when real dates go down but fiscal policy and Chinese bans post threats.
21:3911/09/2023
Potential pain for consumers?
Government spending on infrastructure set to ramp up but potential pain ahead for consumers. While markets look to be turning up and it's time to get selective, rising energy prices are inbound.
20:2404/09/2023
The fear factor
New home sales and consumer confidence are strong, but the cost of funding is a weakness. Look for opportunity at the intersection of value and quality but be mindful of the threat of the risk of a double-dip earnings recession.
20:2328/08/2023
The China contagion?
Solid portfolio construction manages volatility while the problems with China's economy have the potential to spread wider. Opportunities exist via active management while threats include the effect of quantitative tightening.
20:4621/08/2023
Consumer Sentiment Up, But Volatility Looms
Both consumer and small business sentiment are up, but earnings volatility may contribute to an overall volatile future. Opportunities may lie in value and energy, but some fear a change in the equity markets.
17:2614/08/2023
Deficits consistent with a recession, not an expansion
Economic growth still supportive but concern over big debts and deficits. Short bonds and multinationals vs unanchoring of inflation expectations.
24:2007/08/2023
Parts of the consumer base are starting to suffer
The economy continues to power ahead while the bond market is dealing with returns vs. expectations. Are there opportunities to add duration and within commodities? Credit is tightening which is affecting some consumers.
15:3731/07/2023
Special Episode: Focus on agriculture and commodities.
Jason Moss, Senior Marketing Consultant at Brock Associates, joins Todd Voit and Jason Cooper to discuss agriculture and commodities.
18:0224/07/2023
Where consumers are cutting back. What might that tell us?
Better than expected inflation numbers meet a dollar in a downtrend. There might be opportunities to lock in longer term yields but poor regulations might introduced financial instability. Bonus tip: don't go to Costco with Brian Jacobsen.
16:5317/07/2023
Choose your own fiscal policy adventure.
The economy is accelerating but monetary policy is tightening. There are opportunities in niche asset classes, but fiscal policy is setting up a choose-your-own-adventure threat .
18:0910/07/2023
Portfolio positioning in divergent markets
Equities are strong, especially large cap growth. Watch for weakness in small to midsize banks with the potential of further rate hikes. There is an opportunity for yields with cash management while divergent central banks pose a threat.
15:1203/07/2023
How does the 3-day Russian 'mutiny' present opportunity?
Global unemployment is the lowest in decades while US productivity plunges amidst rising wage rates. Options are cheap for those worried about current conditions while the potential for pain with low quality companies and deteriorating earnings is a threat.
14:2226/06/2023
Is divergence about to snap shut like alligator jaws?
AI is leading to a broadening of the market while lending conditions have gotten tighter. Is there an opportunity in down capitalization names and what is the threat to economic growth taking a lead from credit conditions?
13:5919/06/2023
Monday, June 12th. The consumer becomes the weakness.
Diversification is not a buzzword--it's a strength. Meanwhile, consumer fragility emerges as a weakness while cash on the sidelines presents an opportunity. Beware of the threat of chasing momentum.
14:2512/06/2023
Monday, June 5th. Rate hikes finally starting to work inside the economy.
The US labor market continues to be strong while Chinese economic activity has been quite weak. Are there opportunities with weakness prices in? Are AI expectations a threat if they're not tamed?
22:1505/06/2023
Tuesday, May 30th. Focus on AI. Exuberance vs Truth?
Strength this week is the debt deal, but it also shows up as a weakness depending on Congressional reaction . As an opportunity, it's clear that AI amplifies creativity.
17:5730/05/2023
Monday, May 22nd. The magnitude of a potential correction could be sizable.
The debt ceiling debate sits as both a strength and a threat this week. Weaker breadth and potential stickier inflation is a weakness while companies with strong balance sheets are opportunities.
15:4622/05/2023
Monday, May 15th. Blending weakness into opportunity.
Strength internationally but commodities continue to languish. Getting 'paid to wait' is an opportunity but inflation expectations remain a threat.
17:5415/05/2023
Monday, May 8th. 50th Episode Special w/guest Gibson Smith of Smith Capital Investors
Blaine Disrud and Trevor Nargis welcome guest Gibson Smith of Smith Capital Investors for a 50th Episode special. Strengths include interest rates and returns available in the bond market while tightening money policy, regional bank problems, and tighter credit pose weaknesses. For opportunities, bonds are back while future inflation is a threat.
29:1208/05/2023
Monday, May 1st. It's almost like we have two economies...
Big tech earnings propel strength this week while market breadth leads the weakness. Yields and quality are an opportunity while the debt ceiling continues to be a threat.
15:2601/05/2023
Monday, April 24th. Is the US Dollar losing its dominance?
China's recovery leads strengths while economic indicators are deteriorating. There are opportunities both overseas and in certain sectors while continued tightening remains a threat.
16:0224/04/2023
Monday, April 17th. Bank concern creates market fear and angst.
Long duration asset strength and consumption weakness. Volatility presents an opportunity while threats emerge in the job market.
20:4417/04/2023
Monday, April 10th. Cash on the sidelines presents an opportunity.
Does the market see sunnier days ahead? Watch for weakness with equity valuations as we head into weaker-than-expected earnings. Are we seeing the next market bottom? Beware of the threat of a credit crunch.
16:3910/04/2023
Monday, April 3rd. The pause and the pivot.
Strengths include the outperformance of the Nasdaq--and stocks in general. Weakness is the potential for falling market breadth along with stocks falling below the 200 day moving average. Opportunities exist with China reopening along with other Emerging Market potential. Threats still exist with inflation being stickier.
14:4403/04/2023
Monday, March 27. Markets and Fed playing chicken. Again.
Long duration assets have done well but financial conditions are a weakness. An opportunity exists with the rally on the Fed pause but the impact of the bank crisis remains a threat.
21:5727/03/2023
Monday, March 20th. 'A weeding out of the weak'.
Resilience in equity markets meets weakness in credit and commodities. There are opportunities in large banks while potential exists for contagion and stagflation.
14:2120/03/2023
Monday, March 13th. A BIG week meets the SVB factor
The continued strength of inflation, valuations continue to be high while the equity risk premium stays low. The decline in interest rates meets continued Central Bank tightening.
21:2813/03/2023
Monday, March 6th. Margin pressure--both a weakness and an opportunity.
Business and consumers locked in low rates on their debt. The mortgage market remains tough. AI and its potential aid to productivity. And the Fed's guidance might not be as effective on a go-forward basis.
16:2806/03/2023
Monday, February 27th. A signal at the wrong time.
Consumer strength continues to be a strength--but not what the Fed wants to see. Further rate hikes are a certainty and the market is pricing them in. What is AI's impact for potential productivity gains? And what does the continued slowdown in growth mean down the road?
17:1927/02/2023
Monday, February 20th. It still pays to be defensive
US markets closed for President's Day--but we're still here talking about the economy and inflation. Might the market misplace inflation coming down? Does it make sense to play defense? And why is opportunity cost a threat?
17:5120/02/2023
Monday, February 13th. Financial conditions have eased...for now.
Financial conditions have changed for now, but the inverted yield curve shows up twice: as a weakness and a threat. Fixed icome continues to be very attractive.
18:4913/02/2023
Monday, February 6. Labor numbers and January markets.
Labor continues to be strong while the dollar rallies. Options create opportunities and the debt ceiling issue isn't going away.
17:0606/02/2023
Monday, January 30th. 2022's losers are the winners so far this year
It's Fed week. Strength: 2022's losers are the winners so far this year. Weakness: Consumer credit is expanding. Opportunity: many areas are looking strong all at once. Threat: the Fed's action has been flowing through to consumers...and Washington.
17:5330/01/2023
Monday, January 23rd. "Congress Fiddling With The Debt Ceiling While Our Deficit Burns"
More liquidity added to the system than you might have realized. The inverted yield curve continues to indicate a recession, but the markets may have already "baked it in." Annex Wealth Management's Todd Voit, Jason Cooper, and Jack DeRoche discuss
20:4223/01/2023
Monday, January 16th. "They're playing chicken with the Fed."
Strength: the breadth of the market has been outperforming. Weakness: the consumer going forward and sales volume coming down. Opportunity: international and emerging market equities. Threat: slow growth as inflation comes down.
17:1316/01/2023
Monday, January 9th. Finding the floor.
Strength: market recovery vs. economic situation. Weakness: leading economic indicators showing signs of contraction. Opportunity: a gradual increase towards equities this year. Threat: recession worse than expected.
14:2609/01/2023
Tuesday, January 3rd. 2022 review with a look ahead at '23.
Strengths include the Fed's resolve to tame inflation. One weakness is diversification; it was a bad year for balanced investors. 2023 will bring opportunity in small caps while unintended consequences of monetary policy and debt remain a threat.
21:3403/01/2023