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Annex Wealth Management
Join the members of the Annex Wealth Management Investment Team as they discuss the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats in the markets and economy.
Are we in a melt-UP?
Goodbye uncertainty but higher rates on a valuation headwind are a weakness. Laggards are turning into leaders but remember the risk before the market makes you.
13:1125/11/2024
'Boring' is becoming the new 'interesting'
Special Guest: Brian Kersmanc - Portfolio Manager - GQG Partners
17:3318/11/2024
Tax Cut Trump or Tariff War Trump?
Markets elect to rally but ballet box bond blues are a weakness. Campaigning for change presents opportunity but polling pressures trade and inflation create threats.
14:4911/11/2024
Election week
Good goods growth so far for a strength while valuations pose a weakness. There is opportunity with Election Day on the doorstep but election angst is a threat.
10:1304/11/2024
The Halloween Episode
Strength: The undead dollar. Weakness: Rates Ding Dong Ditch it. Opportunities: Bobbing for duration. Threat: Phantom Market Movement.
15:4428/10/2024
Recession warning signals
Retail sales stay strong while volatility remains in long rates. There's another chance to add duration but recession warning signals are beginning.
08:5721/10/2024
AI's 'green shoots'
Stocks are the strength this week while yields up while certain asset prices are down are a weakness. There is opportunity to get growing at a reasonable price while voting with your portfolio instead of the polls is a threat.
13:4314/10/2024
The jobs number and incoming earnings
Hard data supports a soft landing while returns may have discounted positive future fundamentals. There's an opportunity to get out of cash but rebounding inflation poses a threat.
10:0107/10/2024
China's shock and awe
China gooses its economy while US consumers aren't feeling confident. There was a big cut but little pain, possibly because easing might have been too little, too late.
20:5230/09/2024
Housing, nukes, and volatility
Housing appears in both strengths and weaknesses this week. There is opportunity in small caps and natural gas while long yield and election volatility are threats.
13:2423/09/2024
Fed week
Gold and tech in the strength column while the consumer weakens. Opportunity exists in the relative strength of individual equities post-sell off. The dual mandates of the Fed remain a threat.
08:1716/09/2024
Too much emphasis on Fed rate cuts?
14:3709/09/2024
Another hangover like 2019?
Dr Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist, and Ken Bellinger, Research Analyst present the Labor Day Weekend edition of the SWOT Podcast.
16:4602/09/2024
Time to cut? The Fed vs The Market
There's broad Fed agreement at the Jackson Hole meeting that it's time to cut, but the Fed and the market are on different pages.
18:5026/08/2024
Volatility produces a lot of opportunity
Inflation continues to abate while the labor market weakens. Opportunity exists through volatility while the threat remains for a Fed policy error.
07:5719/08/2024
Sometimes strengths can bleed over to weaknesses
Strength: inflation abation. Weakness: sales and earnings pressure. Opportunity: financials, dividend growers, and select growth stocks. Threat: a Fed delay.
09:3212/08/2024
"Trading last week looked...frightening"
Strength: bonds diversified stocks. Weakness: the labor market. Opportunity: selective stock selection. Threat: bad news is now bad news.
13:2905/08/2024
Consumers gonna consume
It's what they do best, consumers consuming---and that's our strength this week. China grasping at straws is a weakness but there is opportunity to ride the market emotional rollercoaster. For a threat, we ask 'has the damage been done'?
20:1829/07/2024
The danger of being too sure of the outcome
Strength: The Fed's tone is changingWeakness: Tech wreckOpportunity: Ride the rotationThreat: Snowballing negative sentiment
17:3222/07/2024
Beware the Red Queen
Strength: interest rate pressure might be subsiding. Weakness: risk to earnings forecasts. Opportunity: companies that disproportionately benefit from lower rates. Threat: a rotation away from market cap heavy names.
14:0415/07/2024
A political risk....but not THAT way
Modest progress toward inflation targets for strength but weakness with cracks in the credit armor. Opportunity exists with cheap protection but economic roadburn and politics are weaknesses.
17:0208/07/2024
A big week for data
Our strength is continued US exceptionalism while concentration risks in the economy present weakness. Opportunity exists by not extrapolating the downward trend in momentum towards something else while momentum crashes present a threat.
15:2201/07/2024
Will the Fed act properly?
Nvidia (and chips) are strong while consumers are feeling pinched. There is opportunity with the acceleration of earnings but a threat remains if the Fed acts too little, too late.
13:3424/06/2024
A little too cozy in the Magnificent Seven?
Back on track for inflation but lingering weakness in transportation names. Opportunity with quality growth (and AI has legs!) but complacency in the Magnificent Seven.
12:5917/06/2024
1st Tuesday November. A date with destiny?
Interest and dividends are helping retirees but higher rates may eventually bite. There are opportunities in infrastructure and utilities with AI but geopolitical risk is coming back.
16:4410/06/2024
Growth: Slowing to a crawl
Strength: Average stock is better than the index. Weakness: Auction anxiety is back. Opportunity: Oversold interest rate sensitives are good for a trade. Weakness: Growth cools faster than inflation.
14:0503/06/2024
NVIDIA kills it
NVIDIA is the coolest kid in the class but we're beginning to see a bifurcated economy. Opportunities exist by focusing on quality but a growth scare poses a threat.
12:2127/05/2024
DOW 40k!
A 40,000 DOW is a strength while there are more cracks in the consumer's facade. Why sell in May when you can just stay? And a no-landing but turbulence ahead appears as a threat.
23:2720/05/2024
Inflation. A messy sort of data.
Rising earnings expectations are a strength but is the labor market beginning to crack? An opportunity exists to rethink real assets but the threat of decelerating economic growth has arrived.
29:0313/05/2024
The Fed is navigating using a rearview mirror
A dovish tilt and buybacks are powering the market forward but there's weakness with cracks forming in the consumer facade. Market misconception is providing opportunities for outperformance while bad data and labor issues are a threat.
25:5306/05/2024
AI and earnings.
AI momentum continues while a bifurcated consumer is a weakness. AI requires real assets, that's an opportunity while sticky inflation remains a threat.
21:2229/04/2024
EPISODE 100! "It feels worse than it's been" (the week, not the podcasts)
Global growth is better than expected but higher mortgage rates are dampening housing. There's opportunity as April showers bring May flowers but the threat grows that the Fed may not even cut rates.
25:4522/04/2024
King Dollar. Still the safe haven.
The dollar is still king while that hot CPI print is a weakness. Opportunity exists in corporate bonds for income, but the unknown unknowns are a threat.
23:2315/04/2024
Gold shines
Gold is at a 5000 year high while retail is on sale. Active management offers an opportunity across the board but inflationary tailwinds intensify.
21:1708/04/2024
The return of supply chain issues?
Firmness in treasury yields but non AI sales projects face an elongated sales cycle. There are opportunities as the overall market broadens but deficits are keeping rates elevated.
17:5201/04/2024
Mojo and Stagflation
Manufacturing mojo is coming back while pricing power to margin pressure is a weakness. Opportunities exist in credit while stagflation narratives pose a threat.
23:1425/03/2024
We've identified that huge sucking sound
Manufacturing might be finding a footing in the US while inflation remains a weakness. Cross-country divergences create opportunities while threat is the giant sucking sound of liquidity.
22:0918/03/2024
"...this is a time most reminiscent of 1998."
The economy is strong and the market is pushing while the US dollar's potential is weakening. There's opportunity to slowly and proactively move money into longer dated bonds while a threat of euphoria is beginning.
20:0611/03/2024
Rates and inflation remain sticky
Markets don't do much in election years until the outcome is clear.
16:5204/03/2024
Virtuous cycle to vicious cycle?
This week's strengths are the news highs while Fed pushback continues and so does the rise in yields. There is opportunity in the virtuous cycle but commercial real estate is a threat.
25:3326/02/2024
Kudos to the Fed's messaging
Kudos to the Fed's messaging but hot inflation and cold spending is a threat. One man's garbage is another man's treasure (and opportunity) but watch out for the threat of value traps.
22:3519/02/2024
My oh my. That AI!
Trees are growing to the sky while interest rate exposed securities continue to lag. There are opportunities as bad breadth improves but uncertainty remains a threat.
21:3912/02/2024
Eyes on the Fed
We're in a good place but there are still signs of stress with some regional banks. Simple opportunities exist by maintaining a balanced portfolio. The Middle East is becoming a threat.
23:3605/02/2024
Sticking the soft landing?
Almost perfect economic data meets hypersensitive areas in the market. Even with a pullback, there are relative value opportunities while a breaking bad forecast includes the market pricing in aggressive rate cuts.
20:0729/01/2024
Opportunity and Threats as equals?
The economic damage has been contained but weakness appears while wrestling with the Fed's communication. Opportunity exists with the Fed NOT tanking the economy--but a threat remains if the Fed DOES wind up tanking the economy.
21:4622/01/2024
The 'AI Chaser'
The mega map momentum runs into a small cap and earnings retreat. Broadening use of AI is an opportunity while persistent inflation and rise energy costs pose a threat.
15:3415/01/2024
Did the market get ahead of itself?
The good jobs report might be solidifying the soft landing scenario but a cyclical strength isn't great. Do pullbacks equal opportunity? A threat could emerge when the market doesn't get what it wants.
26:5108/01/2024
2023 in review, 2024 straight ahead.
Momentum continued but China and the Credit Crunch were a drag. Opportunity exists for active managers while the Fed being slow to react to deteriorating conditions is a threat.
25:0101/01/2024
The Christmas Episode
Santa Claus came for small caps but the dollar has been dashing downward. Stock pickers need to do some homework but will it be a blue Christmas for bonds?
18:2425/12/2023
The transition from pause to cut can be bumpy
Interest rate sensitive assets are a strength while the Magnificent 7 might be going from magnificent to middling. There is opportunity in the catch-up trade but transitions can be hard.
17:0218/12/2023