In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze market impacts of the developing Trump administration across various sectors.⏱️ Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Intro00:00:44 - World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis03:42 - US Gas Demand/Supply Overview04:40 - US Government Revenues and Expenses05:30 - UBER/DASH/ABNB/FIVE/HROW Analysis06:33 - Healthcare Sector (UNH/CVS/REGN/LLY)09:39 - Mining & Energy (FCX/ALB/CF/NEE)13:06 - Restaurant & Hospitality Stocks14:11 - Food & Beverage Sector15:19 - Pharmaceutical Companies16:20 - Industrial Equipment17:41 - Financial Sector Analysis20:58 - Natural Gas Companies21:27 - Oil Companies Review21:40 - Midstream Companies21:51 - Major Oil Companies22:06 - Retail Sector Analysis🔑 Key Topics:Impact of Iran sanctions on oil marketsHealthcare sector reforms and PBM regulationsElectric vehicle market outlookFinancial sector regulatory changesEnergy sector developments💡 Featured Companies:Healthcare: UnitedHealth, CVS, Regeneron, Eli LillyEnergy: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillipsTech: Uber, DoorDash, AirbnbRetail: Walmart, Target, Home Depot📝 Note: This episode contains investment analysis and market commentary. All discussions are for informational purposes only.#Trump2024, #EnergyPolicy, #HealthcareReform, #TechRegulation, #ChinaRelations, #IranSanctions, #UkraineNATO, #ElonMusk, #VivekRamaswamy, #GovernmentEfficiency$UNH $CVS $REGN $LLY $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $JPM $MS $GS $IBKR $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNGThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on healthcare, energy, and technology. They analyze key exhibits and dive into company-specific news and developments.[00:00:57] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Page 1) Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:02:10] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth.[00:04:32] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth.[00:08:41] Healthcare News: PFE, MRNA, LNTH, BNTX, VRTX (Page 15) Jason discusses the potential for changes to the ACA under Trump and the possibility of the FDA losing its food regulation responsibilities. Vertex's earnings and pipeline progress, particularly in type 1 diabetes, are highlighted, while Lantheus faces challenges with Pylarify sales growth.[00:21:15] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team explores the implications of a Trump presidency on the semiconductor industry, including the Taiwan-China dynamic and the potential for Intel to be merged with Qualcomm or Broadcom. They also discuss the importance of ASML's lithography machines and the challenges Intel faces in catching up to TSMC.[00:28:06] Big Tech and Regulations: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) Mike examines the potential impact of a Trump administration on big tech companies, noting the president's anti-big tech stance. The team also discusses the possibility of easier acquisitions and fewer regulations in the tech sector.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. #Subscribe for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:57] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discusses Israel's recent actions and their impact on oil facilities.Analysis of OPEC's plan to increase oil supply by one million barrels per day starting December.Suggestion to monitor oil company stocks for potential investment opportunities.[00:02:47] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of gas demand growth and LNG exports.Discussion on renewable energy's impact on gas demand for power generation.Projections for gas prices in 2024 and 2025.Mention of increased gas imports from Canada.[00:05:53] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Revenues and ExpensesReview of the U.S. government's cash flow and spending challenges.Analysis of major expense categories: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest, and defense.Discussion on the difficulty of reducing government spending by $2 trillion.Emphasis on the need to flatline spending and promote economic growth.[00:08:24] AI's Impact on the Election CycleJason notes that fears about AI-generated misinformation did not materialize significantly.Discussion on deep fakes and the role of tech companies in suppressing misinformation.Mike cautions that the election is not over yet.[00:09:20] Analyzing the Netflix FranchiseHunt challenges Mike and Jason to analyze Netflix's position in the streaming industry.Comparison between Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube.Jason predicts a potential duopoly between Netflix and YouTube.Mike discusses different content types and their value, such as live sports vs. reusable shows.Analysis of competitive dynamics and market strategies of streaming services.[00:16:42] Franchise Values of Google, Microsoft, and Their ChallengersHunt questions the strength of Google's search franchise amid AI advancements.Jason and Mike discuss Bing's market share and the potential for AI to disrupt traditional search.Conversation about OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Google's AI capabilities.Speculation on Meta's influence by giving away AI products.[00:23:54] Healthcare Update: Lilly Earnings and Vertex PharmaceuticalsHunt introduces the healthcare segment focusing on Eli Lilly and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.Jason explains Lilly's earnings miss due to compounding pharmacies affecting sales.Discussion on FDA regulations and the legal battle with compounding pharmacies.Update on Vertex's pain drug, market size, and potential to reduce opioid addiction.Mention of CVS considering a breakup and antitrust actions against PBMs (Pharmacy Benefit Managers).Brief discussion on UnitedHealth's financial performance.[00:31:13] Closing Remarks$NFLX $GOOGL $MSFT $SPOT $META $AMZN $LLY $VRTX $UNH $CVSThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives into the latest developments in AI, analyzing the competitive landscape and opportunities for major tech companies. They also discuss Spotify's business model and moat, and examine the unsustainable U.S. deficit and its potential economic ramifications.[00:34] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt provides an update on the oil market, noting that while the prospect of Israeli missiles directed at Iranian export facilities has supported prices, surplus capacity of around 4 million barrels is likely to keep prices in check. He also highlights the mature nature of oil demand in developed economies.[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt discusses the substantial revisions made to the natural gas page, with production remaining flat but Canadian imports increasing significantly. He expresses concern about the recent drop in gas prices and the surplus of gas in storage.[06:18] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt emphasizes the unsustainable nature of the U.S. deficit, with government borrowing nearly $2 trillion last year. He notes the recent rise in 10-year bond yields and the potential challenges in financing the deficit while the Fed reduces its balance sheet.[08:34] JPM / MS / GS / IBKR (Page 13) The hosts review the nine-month results for major banks, focusing on their free cash flow and valuations. They compare the performance and business models of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.[11:21] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The discussion turns to media and content companies, with a focus on Spotify's business model and potential expansion into video. Mike and Jason analyze Spotify's network effects, revenue drivers, and challenges in creator compensation.[16:52] AI Agents Hunt introduces the topic of AI agents and their potential impact on various companies. Jason and Mike discuss the development of specialized and generalized AI agents, the importance of reducing errors, and the likely timelines for consumer-facing AI products.[29:42] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The hosts return to discussing Meta's advancements in AI and its potential to increase free cash flow compared to Amazon and Google. They also touch upon Google's advantages in the Android ecosystem and the potential impact of AI agents on app store revenues.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Show NotesIn this episode of Telltales, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence delve into the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. Join them as they discuss the implications of Tesla's recent announcements, the groundbreaking Nobel Prize win by Google's DeepMind team, and the current state of global oil and gas markets.[00:52] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C)[05:27] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B)[09:03] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)[09:35] Google Engineers Win Nobel Peace Prize[23:35] MAG7 Risks: TESLATopics Covered:Energy Market UpdatesGlobal Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Surplus Challenges: Discussion on the current surplus of 4 million barrels per day and its impact on oil prices.Geopolitical Factors: Insights into agreements between Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S., and how Middle Eastern geopolitics affect oil markets.OPEC+ Strategies: Examination of OPEC+'s plan to incrementally increase oil supply starting in December.Price Predictions: Analysis suggesting oil prices may head lower, possibly into the low $60s by early next year.Production Dynamics: The role of non-OPEC production increases from regions like Guyana, Brazil, and West Texas.U.S. Natural Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B)Oversupply Issues: Overview of the current oversupply in the U.S. gas market and production curtailments by EQT and Chesapeake.Permian Basin Impact: Explanation of associated gas production from the Permian Basin contributing to increased supply.Demand Factors: Discussion on power generation demands, LNG export prospects, and their influence on future gas prices.Price Outlook: Expectations for sustained natural gas prices in the $3 range, with caution about potential market slides.U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)Deficit Concerns: Highlighting the nearly $2 trillion deficit and the lack of political discourse addressing it.Future Implications: The necessity for the next administration to tackle the deficit due to pressures from global capital markets.Healthcare NewsGoogle's DeepMind Engineers Win Nobel PrizeAlphaFold Breakthrough: Discussion on the Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded for the development of AlphaFold, an AI system that predicts protein structures.Impact on Drug Discovery: How AlphaFold accelerates preclinical research by enabling rapid protein design and structure prediction.Industry Implications: Potential for pharma companies to license AlphaFold technology, changing the landscape of drug development.Technical Insights: Comparison of traditional methods versus AI-driven protein folding predictions.Mag 7 Risks: TeslaTesla's RoboTaxi Announcement: Summary of Tesla's recent unveiling of the RoboTaxi and humanoid robots.Vision for the Future: Elon Musk's portrayal of transportation becoming seamless and less intrusive in daily life.Technical Analysis: Discussion on the lack of detailed specifications and what that means for the rollout.Competition Landscape: Comparison with Waymo's approach, including differences in technology like LiDAR versus camera-only systems.Regulatory Challenges: Exploration of the hurdles Tesla may face in getting RoboTaxi approved in various states.Valuation Considerations: Debate on how many cars Tesla needs to sell to justify current valuations, factoring in the potential of RoboTaxi services.Global Outlook: Speculation on whether autonomous vehicle technology will advance more rapidly in China due to regulatory environments.Key TakeawaysEnergy Markets: Both oil and natural gas markets are experiencing oversupply, which may lead to lower prices unless production adjusts.Healthcare Innovation: AI breakthroughs like AlphaFold are poised to revolutionize drug discovery and development.Autonomous Vehicles: Tesla's ambitious plans for RoboTaxi could transform transportation but face significant technical and regulatory challenges.Economic Concerns: The U.S. deficit remains a critical issue that requires attention from policymakers.Connect with UsWebsite: Visit telltales.us to access the Cash Flow Memo and stay updated on future episodes.Subscribe: Follow us on your favorite podcast platform and never miss an episode.Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us through our website or social media channels.Thank you for tuning in to this episode of Telltales. Join us next week as we continue to explore the intersections of energy, technology, and healthcare shaping our world today.TSLA 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ REGN 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ LYFT 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into analyzing Microsoft's competitive position and cash flow drivers as the computing world stands on the cusp of an artificial intelligence revolution. Will Microsoft's key profit engines in Office and Windows withstand the AI wave or will the tech giant face disruption?[00:01] Energy & Macro Overview (Exhibits A, B, C) Hunt notes the reduction in oil surplus capacity and the recent uptick in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. Natural gas prices have improved slightly but remain dependent on steady production and rising power demand. The US deficit came in lower than expected at $1.8T.[00:11] Commodity Check-In (Page 18) A look at how major commodity producers are faring - copper giant Freeport-McMoRan is holding steady with $3.7B in FCF while lithium leader Albemarle is struggling with nearly $2B in negative cash flow, despite both feeding into the EV and renewable energy transition.[00:16] Pfizer Under Pressure? (Page 15) With activist investor Starboard circling, the team debates whether Pfizer's challenges stem more from mismanaged expectations post-COVID or a thin pipeline and patent cliff issues that are spurring M&A across big pharma.[00:21] Microsoft: Mapping the Cash Flow (Page 1) Mike breaks down Microsoft's ~$70B in FCF: $40B+ from Office, $20B from Windows franchises, with the remainder from Azure cloud. Azure's 47% operating margins look rich, especially considering competition from Amazon, Google, and Oracle.[00:26] Windows and Office: Monopoly Profits (Page 1) Jason explains how Microsoft's dominance arose from the transition to personal computing, with Office's proprietary file formats creating a lock-in. Windows won on the desktop but lost in servers to Linux's superior reliability.[00:28] The AI Reckoning: Disruption or Sustaining Innovation? (Page 1) The team debates if the AI revolution, and Microsoft's bet on OpenAI, represents a sustaining innovation that will entrench incumbents or a disruptive threat. Will a new AI orchestration layer cement Microsoft's lead or will a paradigm shift in computing upset the old guard?The Telltales team tackles Microsoft's future in an AI-driven world. Will the tech titan's armor hold or will AI prove a disruptive force? Tune in next week as the crew shifts gears to discuss Tesla's RoboTaxi and the EV pioneer's place in an autonomous future.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the risks facing Meta (formerly Facebook, META 0.00%↑ ) as it navigates a shifting social media landscape and invests heavily in AI and the metaverse. They also discuss the latest healthcare news, including breakthroughs in treating diabetes and sickle cell disease.For earlier episodes in this series, check out:Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak? (e2438)Examining Amazon's AI Strategy and Risks (e2439)[00:28] Magnificent 7 Cashflow Risks part 3: Meta (p. 1) Jason and Mike examine the challenges Meta faces, including competition from TikTok for younger users, its aging user base, reliance on Apple's platform, and the uncertain payoff of its massive investments in the metaverse. [09:47] Meta's Disadvantaged Position vs. Apple (p. 4) Mike explains how Meta's shift to mobile left it more constrained by and vulnerable to Apple compared to the desktop era. If Apple starts taking a cut of ad revenue, it could severely impact Meta's cashflow. While Meta is investing heavily in AI and VR to win the next computing platform, Apple is well-positioned to swoop in later as they did with mobile.[20:01] OpenAI's Latest Financing and Executive Departures Mike discusses OpenAI's new funding round, conversion to a for-profit company, and the concerning departure of several key employees. However, the release of GPT-4 shows the company continuing to push AI capabilities forward. The hosts ponder if starting as a non-profit before flipping to for-profit is an optimal strategy.[25:37] Healthcare News Roundup Jason covers Lantheus’s out-licensing a cardiac imaging agent to GE Healthcare, a Congressional bill that could enable patenting of DNA, Pfizer pulling a sickle cell drug due to risks outweighing benefits, Humana losing Medicare Advantage bonus payments, the continuation of Vertex's pain medication trials, and a small but promising diabetes trial in China.The Telltales Podcast brings you unparalleled weekly insights into the world of investing and company analysis. Be sure to download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the financials being discussed. Join us again next Wednesday for another deep dive!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode of Telltales Podcast, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore the cash flow characteristics of companies across sectors like energy, technology, and healthcare. They also provide insights into US government finances, natural gas, and oil markets. Here’s a breakdown of the main topics discussed.[00:32] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply and Demand The hosts discuss how macroeconomic factors and geopolitical changes in Lebanon have temporarily impacted oil prices, leading to a welcome strengthening in oil prices. (Exhibit C: Oil)[01:04] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand and Supply The conversation shifts to natural gas pricing trends. The hosts explore how recent price increases in gas contracts for 2025 and 2026 signal better conditions in the natural gas market, despite short-term fluctuations. (Exhibit B: Natural Gas)[02:00] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses The hosts express concerns over the growing US deficit, despite rising revenues. They discuss how high interest payments and increased spending in social programs are causing fiscal challenges. (Exhibit A: US Gov. Finances)[05:15] Amazon’s Risks and Uncertainties The team dives into Amazon’s business model, analyzing the risks in its AWS and third-party logistics business. They also assess the impact of AI competition and consumer spending trends on Amazon’s future. (Memo: Page 1, Amazon)[16:12] Pharmacy Benefit Managers and Antitrust Scrutiny Jason discusses the FTC investigation into Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) and their use of rebates that push patients toward higher-cost drugs. The segment highlights how this affects drug pricing, particularly insulin. (Memo: Page 19, PBMs)[18:21] Eli Lilly’s Market Position and GLP-1 Competition Eli Lilly’s success with its weight loss and diabetes drugs is under the spotlight, though government price negotiations may soon pressure its GLP-1 drug prices. The team also discusses future competition in this drug category. (Memo: Page 19, Lilly)[20:11] Visa Antitrust Concerns Visa faces antitrust scrutiny. The team discusses potential impacts on their business models, ongoing lawsuits, and how these companies handle regulatory challenges. (Memo: Page 7, MA/V)[22:53] Nuclear Power and Tech Support for Clean Energy The hosts explore the role of nuclear power in meeting clean energy goals, particularly with tech companies like Apple backing it as a clean source. Regulatory hurdles remain a major challenge in expanding nuclear energy infrastructure. (Memo: Page 1, Microsoft & Nuclear)[24:55] Software Giants: Salesforce, Oracle, and AI GrowthSalesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake come under scrutiny for their ability to generate free cash flow. Oracle’s success in leveraging AI for database optimization is highlighted as a key growth area. (Memo: Page 2, CRM/NOW/ORCL)Join us next week as we continue to evaluate top companies based on their cash flow characteristics. Stay tuned for more insights into the energy and technology sectors, and don't forget to download the latest Cash Flow Memo for detailed data.AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ NOW 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into the risks and uncertainties facing Google and its parent company Alphabet as AI technologies like ChatGPT threaten to disrupt its long-standing search business model. Jason shares his concerns that Google could become the next Kodak if it fails to adapt to the AI-powered future of search.[00:08:17] Google's AI Search Dilemma (Page 1) Jason warns that Google's model of 10 blue links for search, which has been around for over 20 years, is vulnerable to disruption from large language models and AI-powered search interfaces being developed by Microsoft, OpenAI, and other well-funded startups. The key question is whether these new AI search technologies will upend Google's dominance.[00:14:59] The Future of Search & AI (Page 1) The hosts discuss the potential for AI search to be too computationally expensive, which could help Google maintain its low-cost advantage. However, Jason notes that hardware and software improvements are rapidly bringing down the cost of running AI inferences. Mike suggests that an AI orchestration layer running on devices could efficiently outsource queries to the most capable resources.[00:27:15] Healthcare Updates (Page 15) Jason shares updates on Lantheus' prostate cancer treatment data, which showed improvement but didn't outperform Novartis' Pluvicto. He also mentions Vertex's excitement about their pain program and the pending release of Biontech's melanoma study data.[00:29:49] Next Week Preview: Mag7 Risks Hunt teases that they will continue analyzing the potential weaknesses of another one of the "Magnificent 7" companies in next week's episode, but keeps the specific company a secret for now.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in the energy sector, Apple's lackluster iPhone 16 launch event, and exciting updates from biotech companies Vertex, BioNTech, and Harrow Health.[00:01:05] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt notes that oil is in decline, with China's demand forecast to be flat. Surplus capacity remains at 4M barrels, mostly controlled by the Saudis and Abu Dhabi. He advises waiting or buying half positions in upstream oil companies.[00:01:50] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Natural gas production continues to rise despite curtailments by major producers. LNG projects are delayed and futures prices remain low. The Permian basin is the largest growth area.[00:03:03] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses The US deficit is projected to be around $1.6 trillion in 2024. Spending cuts will need to be addressed by the next administration.[00:03:42] Energy Review (pages 9-12) Hunt goes through the energy pages, focusing on midstream and diversified oil & gas companies. He highlights Antero Resources and its midstream subsidiary as an interesting comparison. [00:09:41] Is 30x Free Cash Flow = Value? (page 1) The hosts discuss whether 30 times free cash flow is a reasonable valuation for high-quality companies in the current interest rate environment. They note the importance of confidence in future growth at higher multiples.[00:14:59] Apple iPhone 16 Launch - Underwhelming? (page 1) Jason and Mike debate the significance of Apple's underwhelming iPhone 16 launch. While new features were limited, Mike argues Apple is transitioning to a services-focused business model. Jason questions if Apple can compete as a software company against the likes of Google and Meta.[00:23:58] Healthcare News Roundup (pages 15, 19, 20) Jason provides updates on Vertex, Harrow Health, and BioNTech from recent healthcare conferences. Vertex's CEO referred to their diabetes treatment as a potential cure. Harrow's subsidiary Melt Pharmaceuticals could have a $100M business at launch. BioNTech is set to announce data from its oncology programs.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics this week, providing valuable insights for investors interested in energy, technology, and healthcare. Tune in for the full discussion and analysis.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the macro environment, including government finances and energy markets, and debates the investment merits of big tech stocks trading at 30-50x free cash flow. They also dive deep into NVIDIA's leading position in accelerated computing and the potential threats to its dominance.[00:00] Oil & Gas (Exhibits B & C): Hunt opens the discussion by examining the current state of oil and natural gas markets, noting the influence of factors like China's demand and U.S. production.[06:09] Exhibit A: US Gov't Revenues and ExpensesHunt analyzes the US government's financial situation, noting the challenges in raising additional revenue or cutting expenses meaningfully. He suggests that in the upcoming presidential debate, neither side will be able to make a strong case for fiscal improvement.[09:20] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA The team examines the high free cash flow multiples of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks and debates whether they represent good value in an environment of elevated interest rates, given their strong competitive positions and growth prospects.[12:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML Mike and Jason do a deep dive on NVIDIA, discussing why its 15-20 year lead in AI accelerators will be hard for competitors to close, even as generative AI could potentially help them develop rival software platforms faster. However, they believe NVIDIA's ecosystem advantage will be difficult to overcome.[20:30] Page 3: Nvidia's Competition The team considers potential threats to NVIDIA's dominance, including hyperscalers developing their own AI chips and AMD's efforts to catch up with its ROCm platform. However, they believe NVIDIA's software lead and incumbent position with developers give it a strong moat.[23:26] Pages 15 & 19: Healthcare News Jason provides updates on Vertex's regulatory issues in the UK, Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy business in Europe while expanding in the US, and the market opportunity for Lantheus' Alzheimer's diagnostic imaging agent.[25:35] Page 3: Nvidia Blackwell Delay The hosts discuss the implications of NVIDIA delaying its next-gen Blackwell chip by 2 months. They mostly see it as a minor issue and potentially a strategic move to optimize yields, especially since NVIDIA is still ahead of competitors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy markets, semiconductor stocks, and biotech. Key topics include Intel's decline due to strategic missteps, NVIDIA's AI leadership and competitive risks, and updates on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. deficit.[00:59] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt notes 4 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, mostly from Saudi Arabia and UAE. If this supply came online, oil prices could drop significantly. Easing of tensions in Ukraine and Middle East could be bearish for oil.[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices are falling as storage levels rise much faster than normal, with the November contract trading in low $2 range. Weather will be a key factor, but persistently low prices could be a risk, especially for Haynesville producers.[04:20] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)The U.S. deficit remains a long-term challenge with no easy solutions. [06:39] Energy Earnings Updates: 2024Q2 (Pages 9-12) Hunt reviews the latest results and outlook for Antero, EQT, Chesapeake, EOG, Magnolia, Permian Resources, Diamondback, Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, and the oil majors. [13:44] Intel's Journey to Irrelevance (Page 4) The team discusses how Intel went from being the dominant chipmaker to facing an existential crisis due to missing mobile and AI trends. With $15B of annual cash burn and $48B of debt, major restructuring may be needed. Meanwhile, NVIDIA has grown from $5B to $110B+ in revenue.[19:16] Nvidia's Risks (Page 4) While hyperscalers like Amazon and Google are developing their own AI chips for cost and performance reasons, they are likely to still rely heavily on NVIDIA GPUs. Energy availability is a potential risk. Mike & Jason published an article on Nvidia’s 5 risks which you can get from their website: www.topmarkcapital.com [24:54] PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX (Page 15) Jason provides an update on the latest in biotech, including Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy unit, viewing Lantheus' network as a strategic asset. BioNTech also announced promising early results for an mRNA lung cancer vaccine. Be sure to subscribe and leave a review - and don't forget to sign up for the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode, the Telltales Podcast team explores recent developments in healthcare, the importance of founder stories in investing, and potential economic risks on the horizon.[00:00:54] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C) The Iranian response to recent events in Tehran has been delayed indefinitely, potentially impacting oil prices. The team discusses the ongoing situation between Hamas and Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia and UAE's role in the oil market surplus.[02:29] US Gas Demand/Supply (Exhibit B) Concerns are raised about natural gas prices and consumption due to unseasonably warm weather in New York. The team suggests delaying discussion on energy companies to monitor price developments.[03:12] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A) The podcast highlights the growing deficit and potential risks associated with high government debt. They predict a possible financial event in the coming year that could impact the markets.[03:45] Financial Institutions Overview (Page 13) Discussion of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the addition of Interactive Brokers to their analysis. The team emphasizes the importance of overnight borrowing in the repo market and potential risks associated with it.[06:59] Jobs Data Revision The team analyzes the recent significant downward revision of job gains by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, comparing it to similar revisions during the 2009 financial crisis.[08:55] Telltales Founder Stories Gwendolyn and Holly share insights from their research on company founders, highlighting stories from NVIDIA, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, TSMC, and Interactive Brokers. The team emphasizes the importance of studying founders for investment decisions.[13:31] Healthcare Sector Analysis (Page 19) In-depth discussion of recent developments in the GLP-1 drug market, focusing on Eli Lilly's recent study results and FDA decisions. The team explores the potential impact on healthcare spending and competition in the market.[25:10] Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Diabetes Research (Page 15) The podcast concludes with a discussion of Vertex Pharmaceuticals' promising early-stage research on type 1 diabetes treatment and the company's unique approach to drug development.Don't forget to subscribe to our email list at telltales.us for weekly updates on cashflow analysis across various sectors!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we dive into the latest developments in technology, pharmaceuticals, and global markets, exploring the strategies of industry leaders and emerging trends.[00:01:18] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C) Oil consumption forecasts have been reduced due to slowdowns in China's economy, particularly in construction and infrastructure. The oil price remains stable due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may increase oil supply to the market.[03:16] US Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices hit unprecedented lows in August due to surplus supply. Expectations are for prices to rise to the $3 range as we enter the November contract trading period.[04:04] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A) The Treasury Department projects a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal 2024. Interest rates are discussed, with expectations that they will not return to post-2008 levels due to ongoing debt issuance needs.[09:39] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Page 15) The story of Vertex's founder, his mission to combat disease, and the company's journey from its inception to becoming a leader in cystic fibrosis treatment is explored. The importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and technological innovation in drug discovery is highlighted.[15:03] TSMC and BYD (Page 3) The similarities between TSMC and BYD are discussed, including their ability to leverage government support and their focus on cutting-edge technology and talent acquisition. The potential threat BYD poses to Tesla is briefly mentioned.[17:42] Retail Businesses (Page 8) Home Depot's results indicate a weak consumer market. The impact of interest rates on the home improvement sector is discussed.[18:31] Harrow Earnings Update (Page 20) Harrow reported strong earnings, exceeding sales expectations. The company's five-year plan and potential for continued growth in the ophthalmic pharmaceutical market are discussed.[20:34] Lantheus Earnings Recap (Page 15) Lantheus reported good results but also increased expenses, particularly in R&D and sales staff, in preparation for new drug launches.[21:50] Hyperscale Capex (Pages 1, 2, 3, 4) The continued high capital expenditure of large tech companies, particularly in AI and data centers, is discussed. The potential impact on Nvidia's future sales and profitability is explored.[27:10] Google's Antitrust Ruling (Page 1) The recent antitrust ruling against Google is discussed, including potential remedies and the impact on Google's agreement with Apple for default search engine status.[29:49] Google Pixel 9 Phone and Gemini Launch (Page 1) Google's announcement of their new Pixel phones and the Gemini AI product is covered, comparing it to Apple's upcoming offerings and discussing potential pricing strategies for AI features.In conclusion, this episode provides a comprehensive look at key developments across multiple industries, offering insights into market trends, technological advancements, and regulatory challenges facing major companies.$TSM $BYDDY $TSLA $VRTX $HD $LOW $HROW $LNTH $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AAPL $META $AMZN $ORCLThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore recent market events, discuss key companies across various sectors, and analyze their cash flow characteristics.[00:00:00] Introduction and Recent News (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential impact on Apple. The hosts briefly touch on oil and gas market conditions.[03:21] Natural Gas Market Update (Exhibit B)Hunt provides an overview of the current weak state of the natural gas market, with prices at historic lows and ample storage.[03:52] U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A)The hosts discuss the challenges facing the U.S. government's fiscal situation, including rising interest expenses and the need for spending cuts.[05:22] Healthcare Companies Update (Page 15)The team reviews recent developments for Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, noting positive outlooks for both companies.[07:23] Industrial and Manufacturing Sector (Page 14)Hunt analyzes the performance of Caterpillar, Deere, Generac, TransDigm, and Fastenal, highlighting their business models and cash flow characteristics.[10:36] Financial Institutions Overview (Page 13)The hosts discuss JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, examining their valuations and dividend policies.[12:13] Japanese Yen Carry Trade ExplanationHunt and the team provide a detailed explanation of the recent market dislocation caused by the unwinding of the yen carry trade.[17:31] Semiconductor Industry Deep Dive (Page 3)The hosts discuss NVIDIA's recent challenges and the overall state of the semiconductor industry, including Intel's struggles to remain competitive.[27:04] Tech Giants and Antitrust Concerns (Page 1)The episode concludes with a brief discussion of the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential implications for other tech giants.Don't forget to subscribe to our email list at telltales.us to receive our weekly cash flow memo, covering 80 companies, U.S. government finances, and the energy sector!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:56 - Market Update: Oil and Natural Gas• Oil pricing weakening; 4.4 million barrels of excess production capacity not being produced• Saudi Arabia and UAE may increase production in fall, causing near-month prices to drop• Natural gas trading very low due to oversupply; prices expected to improve in winter00:03:10 - U.S. Political Landscape and Budget• Discussion of Vice President Harris• Speculation on expiring Trump tax cuts and their impact on income tax revenue00:04:20 - Company Analysis: Retail and Transportation• 5 Below facing challenges with CEO departure• Uber's future uncertain with AI and Robotaxi developments• FedEx and UPS competing against Amazon's logistics• Nike struggling but maintains strong balance sheet• Costco performing well but expensive at 50x free cashflow00:11:39 - Restaurant and Beverage Stocks• McDonald's and Starbucks struggling with same-store sales growth• Chipotle rebounding strongly after E. coli issues• Detailed discussion on Celsius Holdings' growth challenges and market position00:15:03 - Healthcare Sector Update• Vertex Pharmaceuticals' VX548 non-opioid pain treatment submission accepted by FDA• PDUFA date set for January 30, 2025• Discussion on effectiveness compared to opioids and market potential00:16:20 - Tech Sector: Microsoft Earnings and AI Developments• Microsoft's earnings meet expectations but fall short of some predictions• AI Copilot sales lower than expected due to capacity constraints• Plans for increased capital expenditure to support AI infrastructure00:20:39 - AI in Finance: JPMorgan's Language Model• JPMorgan developing its own AI language model for internal use• Discussion on potential use of NVIDIA servers and open-source models like Meta's Llama00:24:58 - Future of Search and AI• Speculation on how search might evolve in the next 2-3 years• Potential shift towards chat interfaces and cited references• Challenges with data sources and closed social networks00:29:06 - Apple's AI Strategy and Future of Mobile• Apple's delayed AI capabilities for iPhone 16 Pro• Potential impact on Apple's business model, particularly Google revenue sharing• Discussion on conflicts between app developers and AI assistants00:31:42 - Conclusion and Next Week's TopicsFIVE 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ FCX 0.00%↑ ALB 0.00%↑ CF 0.00%↑ NEE 0.00%↑ FDX 0.00%↑ UPS 0.00%↑ NKE 0.00%↑ COST 0.00%↑ MCD 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ CMG 0.00%↑ CELH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction00:46 - Oil Market UpdateDiscussion of 2025 oil supply and demand projectionsEstimated 104.5 million barrels per day of supply and demandBreakdown of crude oil vs other liquids in production figuresSaudi Arabia and UAE holding back 3.5 million barrels of surplus productionCaution advised on investing in oil producers currently03:00 - Natural Gas MarketCurrent low prices for natural gas Storage levels 500 BCF above 5-year averagePotential for price improvement later in the yearAdvice to wait before investing in natural gas producers05:00 - U.S. Government Cash Flow StatementAnalysis of CBO forecasts and estimatesCurrent deficit running at about $1.5 trillion in full employment economyChallenges in reducing spending or increasing revenueDiscussion of potential impacts on corporate taxes, tariffs, and individual taxesConcerns about long-term deficit sustainability10:44 - Healthcare Sector UpdateProjection of 8% increase in medical costs for next yearGovernment actions against Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs)UnitedHealth Group earnings growth driven by PBM business (OptumRx)12:25 - CrowdStrike Software Issue ExplanationDetailed breakdown of the cybersecurity software update that caused widespread crashesImpact on various industries including airlines and banksTechnical explanation of the bug and its effectsDiscussion of potential fallout for CrowdStrike and cybersecurity industry19:48 - Tesla AnalysisReview of Tesla's recent financial resultsDiscussion of Tesla's various business segments: automotive, autopilot/robotaxi, humanoid robotsValuation considerations for Tesla stockUpcoming robotaxi event on October 10thAnalysis of Tesla's automotive business value and potentialConsideration of geopolitical factors affecting factory locations29:40 - NVIDIA and Tech SpendingBrief discussion on NVIDIA's chip sales and marginsGoogle/Alphabet's continued heavy CapEx programImplications for NVIDIA's future sales and market reaction31:26 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction02:24 - Natural Gas Market UpdateToo much gas in storage causing low near-month pricesWarm weather across US impacting demandPower prices held down by cheap gas pricesChicago City Gate price unusually close to Henry Hub04:01 - US Government FinancesReview of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts/estimatesDiscussion of accuracy issues with CBO numbersGoal to reduce "all other" spending category to improve debt-to-GDP ratio07:03 - Healthcare Companies ReviewAddition of Harrow Health to watchlistHarrow's growth plans and potential upside discussedEli Lilly's strong performance in pharmaceutical sectorVertex Pharmaceuticals licensing deal for gene therapy researchLantheus Holdings positive developments:CMS draft guidance on radio diagnostics billingAcquisition of new Alzheimer's diagnostic technology18:18 - Semiconductor Industry UpdatesASML criticized for sending equipment to ChinaPotential impact of sanctions on ASML's businessDiscussion of Taiwan's importance in semiconductor manufacturingTrump's comments on Taiwan's strategic importance23:46 - Cybersecurity and Cloud ComputingSnowflake's reputation impacted by customer data breachesGoogle's plans to acquire cloud security startupImplications for cloud market competition27:06 - Tesla and Electric VehiclesDelay of Tesla's robotaxi reveal to OctoberSpeculation on design changes for Model 2/robotaxi platform28:11 - Tech Giants and Clean EnergyMicrosoft-Occidental carbon credit offset dealTech companies reassessing carbon offset strategiesChallenges of powering data centers with clean energy31:14 - AI Impact on Software CompaniesDiscussion of how AI is affecting various software providersServiceNow's AI integration for customer service highlighted32:56 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:48 - Energy Market UpdateReview of OPEC and IEA supply/demand numbers for 2024Discussion of Saudi Arabia and UAE's production capacity and disciplineNatural gas prices and production updatesLNG export facilities and delays (Freeport, Golden Pass)06:02 - Healthcare Sector DiscussionFTC's 70-page report criticizing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)Top 3 PBMs control 80% of prescription flow in USPotential regulatory risks for UnitedHealth, CVS, and CignaVertex and Lantheus UpdatesLantheus: Positive CMS guidance on reimbursement for radio diagnostic testsVertex: Brief mention of preclinical data on potential sickle cell treatmentNew Healthcare Company Spotlight: HarrowSpecializes in ophthalmic care and anestheticsCEO background and capital allocation strategyInnovative approach to R&D through spinoffs (Eaton, Melt, Surface Ophthalmics)22:03 - AI and Tech DiscussionOpenAI, Microsoft, and AppleApple dropping observer status on OpenAI boardSpeculation on potential IPO for OpenAIMicrosoft's investment and revenue rights in OpenAIXAI and Competition in AIDiscussion of Elon Musk's XAI catching up to OpenAI and GoogleImportance of data access and compute power in AI developmentPotential for new AI techniques beyond large language models29:13 - Electric Vehicle Industry UpdatesTesla's new Full Self-Driving software integrating highway and street modelsBYD setting up factory in Turkey to avoid tariffsChinese EV manufacturers' expansion into Europe and potential US entry31:21 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:10 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateDiscussion of OPEC and IEA reports on oil production and demand growth forecastsAnalysis of differences between OPEC and IEA projectionsNear-term natural gas prices weak due to recent heat wave not significantly impacting power pricesMarcellus producers EQT and Chesapeake curtailed production, now back online00:03:30 - U.S. Government Spending and DeficitPoor performance by Joe Biden in recent debate sparks speculation about his candidacyDiscussion of $1.6 trillion overspending forecast for 2024 fiscal yearConcerns about U.S. dollar's position as world reserve currency due to continued deficitsDifficulty in curtailing deficits highlightedFor an in depth perspective on Trump, see the All-In podcast interview and followup.00:07:15 - Interest Rates and Federal Reserve PolicyAnalysis of potential long-term interest rates in relation to inflationDiscussion of quantitative easing and tightening by the Federal ReserveCritique of Federal Reserve's decision to slow balance sheet reduction00:12:54 - Healthcare Sector UpdateFocus on weight loss medicines and patent expirations (e.g. Semaglutide patent expiring March 2026)Competitive landscape for GLP-1 drugs and potential new compounds in developmentDiscussion of Lantheus' PET imaging product for tau protein tangles in Alzheimer's research00:21:54 - Tech Sector News: Apple and AIApple's potential board seat on OpenAI and implications for MicrosoftSpeculation on Apple's AI strategy and integration into iPhonesDiscussion of power requirements and CO2 emissions from data centers running AI models00:27:56 - Oakcliff Sailing UpdateBrief interlude with update from Jenny Duclay at Oakcliff Sailing00:30:15 - Nvidia and GPU AvailabilityAnalysis of A100 and H100 GPU availability in data centersDiscussion of investment payback period for GPUs (approximately 1 year)Continued strong demand for GPUs in data centers00:32:14 - Energy Infrastructure and Data CentersImpact of heat waves on power demand and natural gas pricesChallenges in approving new data centers due to power requirementsPotential for citizen pushback against rising electricity prices due to data center demand00:34:18 - Tesla Production UpdateQ2 vehicle production numbers lower year-over-year but higher than analyst expectationsStrong performance in Chinese production and deliveriesDiscussion of competitive landscape for EVs and potential growth rate00:35:09 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:55 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateOPEC+ meeting impact on oil prices: WTI dropped from $80 to $74, now back to $80Geopolitical risk premium due to Gaza conflict and potential Israel-Hezbollah tensionsNatural gas prices remain low despite heat waveGas production running at 100 bcf/day, down from 104 bcf/day in NovemberNew pipeline from West Texas to Gulf Coast opening in August05:38 - US Government FinancesNeither presidential candidate likely to address need for increased taxes or reduced spendingSocial Security and Medicare trust funds projected to run low in 4-5 yearsBreakdown of federal revenue sources: individual income tax, corporate tax, payroll taxesChallenges in raising additional revenue or cutting major spending categories09:12 - Healthcare Sector UpdateVertex Pharmaceuticals' promising phase 1/2 results for type 1 diabetes treatment11 of 12 patients insulin-independent at 90 days, 3 patients still independent at 1 yearEli Lilly seeking FDA approval for GLP-1 drug to treat sleep apneaGLP-1 drugs on FDA shortage list, allowing compounding pharmacies to produce versionsHims & Hers Health to offer compounded semaglutide, stock rallied on news15:39 - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Deep DiveStrategy of targeting undertreated diseases with smaller patient populationsContinuous improvement in cystic fibrosis treatmentsPipeline includes treatments for kidney disease, pain, and type 1 diabetesNon-opioid pain medication in phase 3 trials with potential for nerve pain treatmentAcquisition strategy combining technologies (e.g. stem cells and encapsulation for diabetes)21:15 - Tesla and EV Market AnalysisBreaking down Tesla's valuation between automotive business and other venturesMorgan Stanley price target of $310/share, only $105 attributed to automotiveOther potential value drivers: full self-driving/robotaxi service, humanoid robotsChallenges in EV market: higher interest rates, increased competitionComparison to Apple's ecosystem and customer loyaltyChinese competition in low-cost EV production29:21 - Wrap-up and Next Week's PreviewThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:00:00] Intro[00:00:49] Exhibit C - Oil Demand and Supply[00:02:11] Exhibit B - Natural Gas Production[00:03:42] Exhibit A - Government Deficit[00:04:55] Apple's AI Approach: The discussion turns to Apple's measured approach to AI, focusing on developing a small on-device model and leveraging the platform to bring in external models like OpenAI. Mike believes this demonstrates Apple's strengths in secure and sensitive handling of personal data. The OpenAI partnership is likely a freemium model where Apple takes a revenue share of premium subscriptions. This could become a meaningful part of Apple's services business.[00:09:52] Microsoft vs Apple AI Strategies: Microsoft is taking an enterprise approach, integrating Copilot across its software suite. OpenAI's business through the Apple channel will likely be more consumer-driven. The cost of inference on newer AI models is substantially higher than older ones, but will decrease with new NVIDIA hardware generations.[00:11:49] Monetizing AI: OpenAI's monetization paths include consumer and enterprise offerings and APIs for other companies to integrate AI capabilities. Many software companies are exploring AI enhancements for their products, such as generating email responses in sales or chatbots for customer support.[00:14:03] OpenAI's Future: Jason believes Microsoft will likely acquire OpenAI at some point. Google's response to Apple's AI moves and the potential impact on search is discussed. Technology often sees mainstream adoption after Apple integrates it into their products.[00:16:55] Oracle's AI Infrastructure Play: Oracle is building a massive data center entirely populated with NVIDIA chips for AI training, with half the capacity pre-sold to Microsoft. This may be to support the increased compute needs from the Apple-OpenAI deal. Larry Ellison is inserting Oracle into the AI supply chain by securing preferential access to NVIDIA chips and providing GPU compute to hyperscalers. Data center capacity, rather than GPUs themselves, may become the choke point.[00:19:16] Crypto Miners and Power Infrastructure: The discussion briefly touches on how crypto miners with existing power interconnects could be acquired for their infrastructure to support AI data centers, as getting power from utilities to new facilities can take years.[00:20:29] Oakcliff Sailing Sponsorship Message: A brief sponsorship message from Oakcliff Sailing, featuring testimonials from sailors David Hervey and Kate Mattiello about their training experiences and Olympic aspirations.[00:21:04] Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake: Jason mentions a hack related to Snowflake customer datasets, potentially due to a compromised sales engineer account without proper multi-factor authentication. This could slow down Snowflake's sales process if it leads to more stringent security requirements when engaging customers.[00:25:41] Healthcare News - Celsius, Eli Lilly, Vertex: In healthcare, Celsius' growth was reported as slowing based on Nielsen data, but this may be due to data gathering changes. Eli Lilly announced positive trial results for an Alzheimer's treatment, more effective than the current standard but still with a low bar. Vertex has started submitting data to the FDA for their pain medicine, with potential approval by end of year.[00:29:05] NVIDIA News: NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang made a high-profile visit to Taiwan, and the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split, possibly positioning for inclusion in the Dow Jones index. TSMC's monthly reports show steady improvements.[00:30:58] Streaming and Sports Content: The hosts plan to discuss streaming and sports content rights in the next episode, with the NBA parceling out their events to likely partners Comcast and Disney.[00:32:14] Closing Remarks This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:02 - OPEC+ Meeting and Oil PricesDiscussion on the recent OPEC+ meeting in Riyadh and its impact on oil prices.Analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategy to phase in withheld production and its implications for global oil markets.00:05:39 - U.S. Government FinancesExamination of U.S. government spending, interest rates, and the budget deficit.Discussion on the need for bipartisan efforts to reduce spending.00:06:00 - Software Companies and AIImpact of AI and large language models on software companies like ServiceNow, Snowflake, and Oracle.Challenges in justifying increased IT budgets for AI integration.00:11:31 - NVIDIA's Market PositionAnalysis of NVIDIA's growth and its dominance in the GPU market.Discussion on the potential for GPUs to replace CPUs and the implications for software providers.00:18:32 - Semiconductor IndustryExamination of the semiconductor industry's supply chain and the role of companies like ASML.Discussion on the challenges faced by Chinese fabs and the impact of government incentives.00:20:22 - NVIDIA's Financial PerformanceDetailed analysis of NVIDIA's revenue growth and free cash flow.Discussion on the sustainability of NVIDIA's market position and future growth prospects.00:23:44 - Data Center MarketAnalysis of the data center market and NVIDIA's role in it.Discussion on the potential for NVIDIA to increase its market share in data center CapEx.00:26:08 - Healthcare NewsBrief discussion on the FDA's draft guidance on regulation of platform technologies and its implications for the healthcare industry.00:28:14 - ConclusionThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:31] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandDiscussion: Analysis of the current oil price, risk premiums, and surplus capacity.Key Points:Risk premiums influenced by geopolitical tensions in Gaza, the Middle East, and Ukraine.Surplus capacity and its impact on future oil prices.[00:02:57] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyDiscussion: Examination of the natural gas market, including oversupply and production adjustments.Key Points:Dry gas production forecasts and curtailments.Impact of new pipelines from the Permian to the Gulf Coast.Volatility in the power and gas markets due to reliance on renewable energy sources.[00:04:14] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesDiscussion: The US deficit, its impact on the dollar, and potential diversification of global central bank reserves.Key Points:Challenges in reducing the deficit to $1.5 trillion.Potential shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.Federal Reserve's policy rate and its implications for the economy.[00:07:50] Energy Industry Consolidations: Conoco to Acquire Marathon OilDiscussion: The logic behind mergers in the oil industry.Key Points:Conoco's acquisition of Marathon Oil.The necessity for upstream companies to increase production or merge.[00:08:37] How to Build a Large Language ModelDiscussion: The process of building large language models (LLMs) and the importance of data sources.Key Points:Historical data sources like Encyclopedia Britannica and scientific journals.The role of modern data sources like Reddit, Twitter, and Wikipedia.Challenges in sourcing data for LLMs in a closed web environment.[00:13:43] How Big is Google's Advantage in Source Data?Discussion: Google's advantage in LLMs due to its extensive search database.Key Points:Google's infrastructure for crawling and indexing the internet.Comparison with other data sources like Twitter.[00:16:34] How LLMs are Challenging Mainstream MediaDiscussion: The impact of LLMs on traditional news media and paywalls.Key Points:Potential decline in revenue for newspapers due to AI-generated news.Legal challenges and the future of paywalls.[00:19:39] How is Pharmaceutical Research Approaching AI?Discussion: The use of AI in pharmaceutical research and data security.Key Points:Outsourcing data aggregation and software solutions.The role of cloud providers in securing healthcare data.[00:24:01] Apple's Choice Between OpenAI and GoogleDiscussion: Apple's potential partnerships with OpenAI and Google for AI integration.Key Points:The strategic importance of data sources.The implications of Apple's choice on its ecosystem and user experience.[00:26:39] If Apple is Slow to Add AI Features, Will Samsung/Android Capture More High-End Market Share?Discussion: The competition between Apple and Samsung in the high-end smartphone market.Key Points:User loyalty to the Apple ecosystem.The impact of AI capabilities.[00:30:10] Nvidia's Epic Cashflow RunDiscussion: Nvidia's financial performance and market dominance.Key Points:Nvidia's growth in revenue and free cash flow.The company's market value compared to other tech giants.The role of Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML in Nvidia's success.[00:33:28] ConclusionSummary: Wrap-up of the episode and a preview of the next discussion on Nvidia's latest earnings.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to the Telltales Podcast, where we delve into the pivotal role of cashflow in investing. Hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, this episode covers a wide range of topics from global oil supply and demand to the latest in tech and healthcare. Below are the detailed summaries of each chapter discussed in this episode.[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:13] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandMiddle East Update: Helicopter crash in Iran killing the president and foreign minister, potential impact on elections.Gaza Conflict: Israel's military actions in Gaza and potential impacts on oil risk premiums.Ukraine War: Russian advances in Northeast Ukraine and its implications for oil prices.Risk Premium: Discussion on the risk premium in oil prices and factors that could influence it.[00:04:00] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyNatural Gas Trends: Improvement in natural gas prices and future projections.LNG Demand: Stability in LNG demand and its impact on supply and demand balance.Futures Market: Explanation of contango and backwardation in the oil market.[00:07:43] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesDeficit Update: Challenges in calculating the deficit due to loan forgiveness.Spending Trends: Analysis of US government spending from 2019 to 2023, including COVID-19 impacts.Future Projections: Potential spending cuts and their implications for future budgets.[00:09:43] Nvidia Earnings Day & Cashflow RisksNvidia's Growth: Discussion on Nvidia's market position and future growth prospects.Tech Spending: Analysis of tech companies' CapEx budgets and their impact on Nvidia.AI Data Centers: Sovereign data centers and their influence on Nvidia's business.[00:11:53] Can the West Prevent China from Running TSMC?Taiwan Semiconductor: Potential scenarios if China takes control of TSMC.ASML's Role: Discussion on the feasibility of disabling TSMC's equipment remotely.[00:13:02] Are AMD and Intel Left Behind?Market Risks: Challenges faced by AMD and Intel in the evolving tech landscape.Microsoft's Shift: Impact of Microsoft's move to ARM processors on AMD and Intel.[00:17:05] Meta Q1 Earnings Reaction & Outlook[00:19:24] Oracle Cerner and Oracle Cloud PlatformOracle's Strategy: Evaluation of Oracle's acquisition of Cerner and its position in the cloud market.Cloud Competition: Comparison with other cloud providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.[00:26:46] Healthcare Updates: Google Alphafold 3, VRTX & Drug DevelopmentAlphaFold 3: Overview of Google's AlphaFold 3 and its implications for drug development.Future of Medicine: Potential for AI to accelerate preclinical research and reduce costs.[00:29:13] Conclusion**Disclaimer:** The views expressed on this podcast are the hosts' alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any security. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.Thank you for tuning in to the Telltales Podcast. Don't forget to subscribe and join our email list for more insights on cashflow and investing. Stay tuned for our next episode!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, aka Mr. Cashflow, delve into the crucial role of cashflow in investing, particularly focusing on the oil supply and demand dynamics, the energy sector, and the implications of geopolitical events on market risk. They also discuss U.S. government finances, investment strategies, and the tech landscape, including the competitive developments between OpenAI and Google, Apple's potential moves in AI, and the evolving digital payment ecosystem. Corporate finance strategies, market predictions, and the increasing influence of high-speed internet options like Starlink are also covered. The conversation wraps up with speculation on the future of mobile communication and the role of screens, signaling a shift towards more audio-based and AI-enhanced interfaces. This comprehensive discussion provides insights into current economic indicators, investment considerations, technological advancements, and the ongoing transformations in the business landscape.00:59 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND04:11 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY05:07 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES05:38 Page 1: Open AI & Google competing for Apple business?11:46 Is Meta a contender for the Apple deal?13:22 Page 5: Comcast to offer streaming bundle14:58 Page 4: Comcast v. Disney Streaming Bundles15:54 Page 3: Intel Debt Stacking Up17:25 Page 3: TSMC April Sales Report19:01 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL22:39 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT27:00 Page 1: Elon Musk & Tesla News32:44 Page 1: Are screens going the way of the dodo?This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to the "Telltales Podcast," where we delve into the intricacies of cashflow and its critical role in driving the economy and investment performance. Join hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and our co-host Hunt Lawrence, as we explore various facets of financial insights and market dynamics. Below, find detailed summaries of the main topics discussed in each chapter of this episode:---[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:51] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandAnalysis of the current oil market with a focus on surplus capacity and demand growth.Impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices, including situations in Gaza, Ukraine, and the Middle East.Recommendations for oil investors based on the expected changes in the risk premium.[00:02:59] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of the U.S. gas market, highlighting the discrepancies between supply and demand.Discussion on the price necessary to overcome the decline curve and add significant supply.Advice for gas company investors in light of current market conditions.[00:05:21] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesPredictions on U.S. tax changes depending on the upcoming presidential election outcomes.Strategies for investors to cope with potential tax increases by investing in long-term holdings.[00:07:57] The Impact of Political Events on InvestmentsReflections on the presidential election's influence on market stability and investment strategies.Commentary on how U.S. governance might be perceived post-election.[00:08:52] Tesla and Artificial IntelligenceDiscussion on Tesla's role in advancing artificial intelligence and its implications for investors.Analysis of Tesla's data utilization from vehicle operations and its potential market impact.[00:16:36] Free Cash Flow Analysis Across Big Tech CompaniesComparative analysis of free cash flow among leading tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.Future projections for Tesla's financial growth and its comparison with other major companies.[00:22:34] Apple’s AI ChallengeThe hosts discuss whether or not Apple is behind on AI[00:28:25] Closing Remarks---Thank you for tuning into the "Telltale Podcast." For more insights and detailed analyses, subscribe to our channel and join our email list at telltales.usThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESWelcome to another episode of Telltales. Join our hosts, Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti, as they discuss cashflow and its pivotal role in investing. Here’s a breakdown of what we covered in this episode:[00:00:34] Meet Mike & Jason in Omaha at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual MeetingDiscussion on the upcoming Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha.Networking opportunities at the event.[00:01:40] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMANDAnalysis of the global oil supply with a focus on surplus capacity held off by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.Impact of reduced Russian oil production due to ongoing conflicts.Implications on oil prices if withheld supplies were released.[00:02:24] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLYExamination of U.S. natural gas supply and demand.Discussion on production curtailment by major producers in the Marcellus Shale.Insights into the natural gas market dynamics and pricing.[00:03:49] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSESOverview of U.S. government revenues and expenses.Discussion on the recent foreign aid package and its impact on the federal budget.Concerns about the lack of financial offsets in government spending.[00:04:34] Exhibit A: TaxesDebate on the feasibility and constitutionality of a proposed wealth tax.Potential implications of tax changes on investment and economic growth.[00:05:51] Exhibit A: Federal Funds Rate Held SteadyCommentary on the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate.Discussion on real interest rates and their impact on the economy and investments.[00:11:07] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLAEarnings updates and significant news from major tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.Strategic movements within these companies and their market implications.[00:11:20] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ - Tesla's China StrategyDiscussion on Tesla's data management strategy in China.Comparison with TikTok's data handling and implications for user privacy and corporate strategy.[00:13:31] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ , AAPL 0.00%↑ - Consumer Preferences in ChinaAnalysis of consumer behavior in China, particularly regarding domestic vs. foreign brands.Impact on companies like Tesla and Apple.[00:14:49] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ Reduces Supercharger Station Growth and Cuts StaffTesla's strategic decision to reduce growth in supercharger stations.Discussion on the economic and strategic factors leading to this decision.[00:20:23] Page 1: Is Google falling behind OpenAI?Exploration of Google's position in AI development compared to OpenAI.Discussion on strategic decisions in technology and AI by major corporations.[00:21:54] Page 1: GOOG 0.00%↑ - Will Android Steal Marketshare from Apple?Predictions and analysis on the potential market shifts between Android and Apple devices.Impact of AI features on consumer preferences and market dynamics.[00:24:09] Page 1: AAPL 0.00%↑ - When is WWDC?Announcement of the upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and expectations.[00:24:26] Page 1: AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ Cloud Growth on backs of NVDA 0.00%↑ Discussion on the growth of cloud services at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, facilitated by NVIDIA technology.Insights into the financial and strategic impacts of these developments.[00:27:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASMLDetailed analysis of NVIDIA's financial performance and market position.Comparison with other major tech firms like AMD, Intel, TSMC, and ASML.[00:31:19] Page 15: PFE 0.00%↑ turning things around?Examination of Pfizer's recent financial performance and strategic directions.Discussion on the broader pharmaceutical industry and market trends.Thank you for tuning into "Telltales"! Don’t forget to subscribe!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES00:01:05 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND: Discussion on recent geopolitical events affecting oil prices and their impact on global oil supply and demand.00:04:03 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY: Analysis of the U.S. natural gas market, including production rates and future demand projections.00:07:16 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES: Discussion on U.S. government spending, revenue trends, and fiscal policies.00:08:33 Page 1: TSLA - Earnings Review & FSD 12: Overview of Tesla's earnings, Full Self-Driving technology, and market implications.00:15:49 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Full Self Driving Revenue Model: Discussion on Tesla's Full Self-Driving revenue model and pricing strategies.00:17:12 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Datacenter: Insights into Tesla's data center strategy and its potential impacts on business efficiency.00:18:43 Page 1: Will Tesla license FSD to other auto manufacturers?: Discussion on the potential for Tesla to license its Full Self-Driving technology to other manufacturers.00:20:45 Page 1: Tesla FSD Gross Margin: Analysis of the financial implications of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology on its business model.00:22:50 Page 15: Vertex's Promising Pipeline ($VRTX): Discussion on Vertex Pharmaceutical's pipeline and strategic initiatives.00:26:52 TSLA 0.00%↑ vs VRTX 0.00%↑ - who could double first?: Comparative analysis of Tesla and Vertex Pharmaceutical's market potential and growth prospects.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesThis episode of Telltales covers several key topics related to investing, energy markets, and the pharmaceutical industry. Here's a summary of the main discussions with timestamps for the chapters:[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMANDThe hosts discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and how the withdrawal of Israeli troops could impact oil prices. Hunt mentions that with Russian oil production down by at least 1 million barrels per day due to the Ukraine conflict, and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE holding back supply, the oil market remains vulnerable to supply shocks, keeping prices elevated in the mid-$80s range. [00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLYThe conversation shifts to the natural gas market, where prices have been holding up well. Hunt highlights the potential for increased power demand from data centers, especially those with GPUs, which could drive natural gas consumption higher, supporting prices. He also notes the supply discipline from major producers like EQT, which has curtailed production to balance the market. [00:05:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSESThe hosts analyze the macroeconomic environment, discussing the impact of higher inflation, continued government deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hunt raises concerns about the potential effect of higher interest rates on stock market valuations, as was observed in 2022 when valuations of high-growth companies declined significantly. [1][00:08:15] Page 1: Higher For Longer impact on TeslaThe discussion turns to Tesla, with the hosts debating the company's valuation in the context of higher interest rates. [00:16:27] Page 13: JPM/MS/GSHunt analyzes the financial performance and valuations of major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. He highlights their ability to generate consistent free cash flow, buy back shares, and pay dividends, which has resulted in attractive returns for long term holders of the stocks.[00:22:44] Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTXThe hosts discuss the challenges faced by large pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer in replacing revenue from expiring patents and developing new blockbuster drugs. They also compare the prospects of Moderna and BioNTech, the companies behind the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and their efforts to develop personalized cancer vaccines and other therapies. Jason and Mike share their perspectives on which company might be better positioned for success in this area. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:39 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND 00:03:08 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY 00:05:25 Exhibit A: US GOVT REVENUES AND EXPENSES 00:06:43 China Risk Discussion 00:07:33 Page 20: UBER / DASH / ABNB / FIVE / ETSY 00:08:24 Page 19: UNH / CVS / REGN / BIIB / LLY 00:09:12 Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE 00:10:26 Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST 00:11:23 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT 00:12:36 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX 00:13:30 Page 14: CAT / DE / GNRC / TDG / FAST 00:15:07 Page 13: JPM / MS / GS 00:15:41 Page 12: AR / EQT / CHK / AM 00:16:13 Page 11: EOG / MGY / PR / FANG 00:16:38 Page 10: KMI / EPD / ET / WES 00:16:44 Page 9: XOM / CVX / COP / OXY / LNG 00:17:37 Page 8: WMT / TGT / LOW / HD / KMX 00:18:28 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL 00:18:51 Page 6: T / VZ / TMUS 00:19:16 Page 5: CHTR / CMCSA 00:19:23 Page 4: NFLX / DIS / META 00:20:49 Page 3: NVDA / AMD / INTC / TSMC / ASML 00:24:40 Page 2: MSFT / CRM / SNOW / ORCL 00:24:59 Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA 00:29:33 Page 1: Discussion on whether Tesla could trade down to $100/share valuation. $UBER $DASH $ABNB $FIVE $ETSY $UNH $CVS $REGN $BIIB $LLY $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $CAT $DE $GNRC $TDG $FAST $JPM $MS $GS $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNG $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $MA $V $PYPL $T $VZ $TMUS $CHTR $CMCSA $NFLX $DIS $META $NVDA $AMD $INTC $TSMC $ASML $MSFT $CRM $SNOW $ORCL $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $TSLAThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The episode covers a range of topics around geopolitics, macroeconomics, antitrust regulation of big tech companies, the energy sector, and the healthcare industry. Significant time is spent analyzing the Microsoft antitrust case, potential partnership between Apple and Google on AI, China's push for domestic chip production, and a DoJ investigation into UnitedHealthcare.[00:00:38] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand- Ukraine drones damaging Russian refineries, reducing Russian oil production- Potential for Saudi Arabia to increase production by 3 million barrels per day- Threat from Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi/UAE oil facilities[00:02:35] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply - Lower US gas production forecasts for 2024- Impact of new pipeline opening in August on Waha gas prices- Increasing power demand from LNG exports and data centers- Climate activists opposing fossil fuels and carbon capture[00:05:13] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses- House Republicans passing spending bills, curtailing spending- Hopes for reduced deficit of $1.4 trillion in 2024/2025[00:06:18] Views on Data Center Power Demand- Potential for higher than forecast power demand from data centers- Debate on whether power should come from natural gas or nuclear[00:09:57] Page 1: Microsoft's DoJ Antitrust Settlement and Lost Decade- Discussing Microsoft's 2001 antitrust settlement with DoJ[1]- Oversight into Microsoft's software development slowed innovation- Impact on company's stock performance from 2001-2011[00:16:28] If Apple partners with Google on AI- Apple's alternatives if they want to use a large language model- Preference for running AI models locally vs in the cloud[00:20:38] Impact of China's move away from Intel/AMD CPUs- Implications for chip companies as China favors domestic sources[00:22:35] Is the EU better at policing big tech?- Comparing EU's antitrust approach vs US DoJ/FTC for big tech[00:26:35] Page 19: UNH/CVS/REGN/BIIB/LLY - DoJ investigation into UnitedHealthcare's practices with Optum- UnitedHealthcare hack impacting healthcare providers- Comparing UnitedHealthcare's performance to CVS HealthThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes [00:00:00] Introduction [00:01:02] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Discussion of rising oil prices due to drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential threats from Houthi rebels in Yemen Analysis of global oil supply numbers for 2023, highlighting oversupply situation if Saudi Arabia increases production Potential for downside in oil prices if Saudi Arabia raises output to 11 million barrels per day [00:03:29] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Analysis of US natural gas production running at 102-104 bcf/d currently vs forecast of 104 bcf/d for 2024 Factors like shut-ins impacting production Increasing power demand for natural gas, driven by intermittent wind/solar sources Forecast showing tight supply/demand balance in 2025 [00:06:19] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Discussion of proposed Biden administration budget with higher spending Analysis of deficit trends, with hopes of stabilizing around $1.4 trillion and gradual reduction Factors like curtailed spending, defense budget, and interest payments impacting deficit [00:10:07] Apple + Google AI Deal? Speculation on Apple using Google's Gemini language model for Siri assistant Potential licensing deal between Apple and Google for Gemini Monetization challenges for AI models like Gemini [00:13:44] Microsoft Acquihires Inflection AI Analysis of Microsoft's acquisition of Inflection AI, founded by former DeepMind employee Potential reasons like access to talent, hardware, and reducing reliance on OpenAI [00:16:40] Google Gemini's Impressive Context Window Discussion of Gemini's ability to process up to 1 million tokens (words) for context Advantages of larger context windows for summarization tasks [00:19:19] Nvidia's New AI Hardware Announcements Details on Nvidia's new GPU chips with 2.5x faster performance and optimizations for large language models Importance of Nvidia's NVLink networking technology for connecting multiple GPUs [00:21:57] Lantheus Update Brief update on Lantheus, a radiopharmaceutical company Acquisition of another radiopharmaceutical company in the industry Positive outlook on Lantheus' prostate cancer diagnostic Pylerify and future therapeutics [00:25:44] Vertex Update Update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and their non-opioid pain medication pipeline Increasing state laws requiring opioid consultation before prescribing Vertex's strong cash flows from cystic fibrosis treatments [00:27:04] Biontech Earnings Discussion of BioNTech's disappointing COVID-19 vaccine sales Analysis of BioNTech's pipeline, including mRNA cancer vaccines and acquired antibody treatments Concerns about BioNTech's strategy for reinvesting cash flowsThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00 Introduction This week’s episode draws fascinating parallels between investing in the energy and biotech sectors. 00:02:25 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND If you look at supply of oil, there's clearly 3-4 million barrels a day too much supply capacity, mostly with Saudi Arabia, to meet demand. The question is, what price of oil would cause supply to come down so that it was within demand? The answer is quite a lot lower. If Saudi Arabia decided to produce the additional 3 million barrels, oil prices could drop at least 20% to below $60 per barrel. 00:05:31 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Moving to exhibit B on gas pricing, production has flattened out in the 102-103 range. The storage change, the difference between demand and supply, was impossibly high at 23. The total surplus was 3 billion a day over 365 days, which is a trillion a year. The total amount of gas storage is only 3.8 trillion. Later this year, there will likely be forced well shut-ins, especially in the Marcellus region. You could see some impossibly low gas prices, which will make headlines, with gas prices received in the Marcellus potentially under $1. 00:07:14 Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES The Biden administration has come out with their budget, which is a political document. We cannot run a $1.5 trillion deficit indefinitely. The interest bill is now more than what we spend for defense, which is not sustainable. However, this is an election year, and the Biden administration has added $500 billion more spending than last year. Congress will never go along with it all, but it shows how irresponsible elected politicians can be when facing an election. 00:08:16 Energy Company Analysis Given the potential for a downdraft in oil prices and the storage build-up leading to potential involuntary shut-ins or very low prices, the hosts quickly cover the energy companies. The gas companies on page 12 (Antero, EQT, Chesapeake) are all behaving well, able to keep production flat or inclined a bit while spending about half their EBITDA. The oil companies on page 11 (EOG, Magnolia, Permian, Diamond Back) are doing fine at $75 oil, showing the same pattern of keeping production flat or inclined while spending about half their EBITDA on CapEx. The midstream companies on page 10 (Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, Western Midstream) won't be too affected by commodity price swings, as they have pretty predictable cash flows, but their debt levels are fairly high. The integrated companies on page 9 (Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, Occidental, Cheniere) are really good companies that can hold production flat and generate significant free cash flow, trading around 10x free cash flow. 00:10:49 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX Shifting to healthcare, the hosts' two favorite names are Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceutical. BioNTech is a sentimental favorite due to the virtuous Turkish couple that founded it. Both BioNTech and Moderna piled up a lot of cash from their COVID vaccines, but they don't have ongoing cash flows to fund their R&D like Vertex and Lantheus do. The hosts have more confidence in companies financing research out of free cash flow. 00:12:22 Comparing Biotech and Energy Investing There are surprising similarities between biotech and energy investing. A blockbuster drug platform is akin to having a large oil or gas reserve that can be tapped for years. But getting there requires early success and skillful capital allocation, just like in energy. Vertex has done an amazing job out-innovating itself in treating cystic fibrosis, similar to an energy company replacing reserves. Their "drug platform" treating this disease is a huge reserve they can tap for years to come. 00:18:16 Vertex's Advantages Over Moderna and BioNTech While Moderna and BioNTech had tremendous COVID-related cash flows, that has largely dried up, whereas Vertex is able to fund R&D from ongoing free cash flow. Vertex spends $3.1B on R&D compared to Moderna's $4B, but Moderna will likely burn through cash quickly unless they have a new hit drug soon. BioNTech is a bit more cash-efficient with partnerships on pipeline products. 00:27:28 Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing 00:28:31 Challenges of In Vivo vs Ex Vivo Gene Editing The hosts discuss the challenges and timelines of in vivo gene editing (directly in the body) vs ex vivo (outside the body). With in vivo, you can't test for off-target edits that could potentially cause cancers or other side effects. So the clinical trials will need to be very long to observe cancer rates over time. Most companies working on this are still in early stage trials. So in vivo gene editing treatments have a low probability of reaching the market in the next 3-5 years due to the complicated trial design and potential for concerning side effects. Ex vivo approaches are further along.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:00:00] IntroMike set the stage for an episode packed with energy, tech, biotech analysis and a special guest from the OakCliff Sailing Center.[00:01:14] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discussed Saudi Arabia's potential to unleash 3 million barrels per day of held-back oil production to flex on cheating OPEC nations. A simple move with profound market implications.[00:01:58] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Warm weather had depressed natural gas prices lately. But the team saw prices firming if production is curtailed. [00:03:06] Exhibit A: US Gov't Revenues and ExpensesProgress inched forward on the U.S. budget process. The government machine lurched onward. [00:03:38] Page 1: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLADissecting tech titan free cash flows revealed insights: Amazon's logistics build-out, Google's bloated hiring, Tesla's software potential. Following the money trail leads to understanding.[00:13:23] Oakcliff Sailing Update Dawn Riley inspired with tales of Oakcliff alumni sailing victories worldwide. The lure of the open water summons all.[00:14:57] Investing in Healthcare & BiotechMike and Jason outlined their approach to biotech at Top Mark Capital: growing free cash flows, moats, innovating in stagnant sectors, funding R&D internally. A straightforward but potent strategy for asymmetric returns.[00:16:43] Page 15: PFE/MRNA/LNTH/BNTX/VRTXVertex exemplified the ideal - spending half its cash flow on R&D for a new non-opioid pain drug, its cystic fibrosis franchise providing a strong moat.[00:21:02] Page 19: UNH/CVS/REGN/BIIB/LLY Larger biotechs like Lilly were assessed, but smaller innovators offered more potential upside per the team's criteria. Risk and opportunity in equilibrium.[00:23:10] What is RNA?Jason eloquently explained RNA technology's role in COVID vaccines and vast future cancer treatment potential. Knowledge is indispensable.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:00:00] Intro[00:01:44] World Oil Supply and Demand:Hunt provides an update on the oil market, cautioning about the potential impact of increased production from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.[00:02:12] U.S. Gas Demand and Supply:Discussion on the natural gas oversupply and the potential for wells in the Marcellus to be shut in due to low gas prices.[00:03:52] U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses:The hosts explore the financial challenges facing the U.S. government, including the risk of a shutdown and the need for a budget resolution.[00:04:24] AI Market Update:A deep dive into the market for general AI and large language models, with a focus on the role of hyperscalers and the sustainability of the AI market's growth.[00:06:14] Klarna Replaces 700 Staff with AI & Saves $40 Million/Year:Jason shares the news of Klarna's use of OpenAI's virtual assistants to replace customer service representatives, saving the company $40 million annually.[00:09:18] Meta's GPU Monetization Strategy:The hosts examine how Meta (Facebook) is using AI algorithms for ad tracking to maintain ad revenue in the face of Apple's privacy changes.[00:12:41] The Gemini Blunder:A critical look at Google's rebranding of its AI model to Gemini, the model's biases, and the impact on user trust and Google's reputation.[00:21:08] AI in Healthcare: Lilly Doubles IT Budget on Internal AI Demand:Discussion on the pharmaceutical industry's investment in AI, with Lilly doubling its IT budget to meet the demand for AI tools.[00:27:31] The Importance of AI for Talent Retention:The hosts conclude with the idea that businesses may need to invest in AI and provide access to dedicated servers with GPUs to attract and retain top talent.[00:33:21] Disclaimer:The episode wraps up with a disclaimer, reminding listeners that the podcast is for informational purposes only and not to be taken as investment advice.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Join Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti as they delve into the latest trends in the energy sector, government fiscal policies, and a special focus on Nvidia's remarkable earnings. This episode also explores the competitive dynamics within the AI chip industry, highlighted by the emergence of startups like Groq.Show Notes & Timestamps:[00:00:00] Intro/Outro: Introduction to Telltales, an investing podcast that covers geopolitics, macroeconomics, energy, and technology. Reminder of the informational purpose of the podcast.[00:00:38] World Oil Supply/Demand: Discussion on the current state of oil demand, particularly in China, and the role of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi in managing oil supply.[00:01:02] US Gas Demand/Supply: Examination of the natural gas market, highlighting the supply problem and its impact on prices.[00:02:18] US Government Revenues and Expenses: Insights into the political landscape affecting government spending and the implications for the energy sector.[00:03:24] Energy Earnings Roundup: Analysis of earnings from various energy companies, including gas and oil producers.[00:05:32] Oil Companies - EOG/MGY/PR/FANG: Overview of the performance and strategic moves of key oil companies.[00:09:11] Midstream Companies - KMI/EPD/ET/WES: Evaluation of midstream companies, their valuation, and debt challenges.[00:09:57] Major Oil and Gas Players - XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG: Discussion on the prospects and performance of major oil and gas companies.[00:11:47] Nvidia Earnings: Deep dive into Nvidia's earnings, its valuation surpassing Amazon and Alphabet, and the sales growth driving its market capitalization.[00:14:19] Competitive Landscape of AI Chips: Exploration of the AI chip market, focusing on startups like Groq challenging Nvidia's dominance.[00:29:54] Closing Remarks: Recap of the episode's key points and a reminder of the informational purpose of the podcast.#InvestingPodcast #EnergyMarkets #OilSupplyDemand #NaturalGas #GovernmentSpending #EnergyEarnings #MidstreamCompanies #OilGasIndustry #NvidiaEarnings #TechInvestments #MarketTrends2024 #ValueInvesting #StockMarketInsights #OilAndGasMarket #TechGiantsValuation #AIInnovation #FinancialAnalysis #InvestmentStrategies #EconomicOutlook #CorporateEarningsThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In the latest episode of Telltales, the investing podcast hosted by Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti, a rich array of topics were explored with their usual blend of insight and wit. Here's a taste of what went down:The trio kicked off with a deep dive into the oil markets, highlighting the delicate balance between supply and demand. They pointed out the Saudi's production cuts and pondered over the potential ripple effects of increased production from other major players like Russia and the U.S.Switching gears, the conversation moved to the U.S. natural gas market. They discussed the impact of recent cold snaps on prices and production levels, and debated the Biden administration's stance on the future of LNG facilities, hinting at the broader implications for the energy sector.The discussion took a turn towards government fiscal policies, scrutinizing the U.S. government's revenue and expenses. The hosts analyzed the deficit trends and the challenging road ahead in managing national debt, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach in these uncertain times.In a vibrant segment, the hosts dissected the media and tech giants - Netflix, Disney, Amazon, and Meta. They chewed over each company's strategic moves, market positions, and the evolving landscape of content consumption and production. The potential for partnerships and the future of streaming services led to intriguing predictions and insights.Telecom was next on the docket, with a focus on the major U.S. carriers. The conversation revolved around the capex strategies, the 5G rollout, and the ambitious leaps towards space-based networks, highlighting the innovative, yet competitive nature of the industry.The semiconductor sector wasn't left out. The hosts discussed recent earnings updates from industry behemoths, touching on the significance of AI in driving future sales and the strategic implications of the global chip shortage.In an unexpected twist, the episode also covered groundbreaking developments in biotech, spotlighting a gene therapy that's making waves in treating genetic hearing loss in children - a testament to the breathtaking pace of innovation in the field.Wrapping up, the episode couldn't avoid the gravitational pull of politics. The hosts deliberated over the potential investment implications of a Trump vs. Biden rematch, offering a nuanced view on how political landscapes can influence market dynamics.From oil barrels to gene editing, from silicon chips to the corridors of power, Telltales once again delivered a whirlwind tour of the investing landscape, all while keeping it light, informative, and utterly engaging. Tune in, stay sharp, and as always, make your investment moves with wisdom and wit!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to Episode 2403 of the Telltales Podcast, your essential guide to the world of energy, technology, and market trends. In this episode, we dive deep into the dynamics of the energy sector, compare it with tech industry giants, and explore the intriguing potential of AI in various sectors. Here's a breakdown of what we cover: 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:25 Disclaimer and Information Notice 00:00:42 Exhibit C: World Oil Supply / Demand 00:02:18 Exhibit B: US Gas Demand / Supply 00:02:49 Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses 00:04:06 Page 9: Energy Majors (XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG) 00:05:35 Page 10: Midstream (KMI / EPD / ET / WES) 00:06:19 Page 11: Oil Companies (EOG / MGY / PR / FANG) 00:07:27 Page 12: Gas Companies (AR / EQT / CHK / AM) 00:08:47 Page 11: Oil Companies (EOG / MGY / PR / FANG) - Part 2 00:09:03 Page 10: Midstream (KMI / EPD / ET / WES) - Part 2 00:09:28 Page 9: Energy Majors (XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG) - Part 2 00:09:50 Energy Valuations (Pg 9-12) vs Tech (Pg 1-4) - A comparative analysis highlighting the valuation disparities between energy companies and tech giants, offering insights into market perceptions and investment trends. 00:11:26 Sponsor Section - Top Mark Capital 00:11:51 Page 3: Can NVIDIA Sustain Its Current Run Rate Free Cash Flow? - An in-depth discussion on NVIDIA's financials, the sustainability of its cash flow, market risks, and growth projections. 00:16:36 Page 2: How Many Customers Does Microsoft Need to Sell Copilot To? - Analysis of Microsoft's Copilot product, its market impact, customer acquisition targets, and its overall contribution to Microsoft's valuation. 00:17:36 Will AI Copilots Be Good Enough? And What We Learned From CES! - A conversation on the potential and current limitations of AI copilots, enriched with insights and key takeaways from the recent CES event. 00:23:36 Page 1: Will Apple Need a ChatGPT or Rabbit Like Capability? - Exploration of the need for advanced AI capabilities in Apple's product line, the competitive landscape, and the implications for the tech giant. 00:25:13 The Implications of Generative AI on Healthcare & Drug Discovery - A thought-provoking segment discussing how generative AI is reshaping healthcare and drug discovery, highlighting potential breakthroughs and challenges. 00:27:52 Wrap-up and Next Episode Preview: Healthcare Focus 00:28:07 Legal Disclaimer and Non-liability StatementThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of Telltales, the hosts (Jason Wallace, Hunt Lawrence and Mike Nicoletti) go through a 20-page memo and pick one stock from each page that they think will have the highest free cash flow growth in 2024. Check out telltales.us for more Sections and Stocks Discussed: 0:00:31 Exhibit C - Oil and gas pricing updates 0:01:54 Exhibit B - Natural gas supply and demand 0:02:03 Exhibit A - Government funding negotiations 0:02:19 Cashflow Pick'em - Choosing cash flow winners 0:03:07 Page 20 - Ridesharing and e-commerce picks 0:04:20 Page 19 - Healthcare and pharma faceoff 0:05:17 Page 18 - Commodity and chemical companies 0:06:54 Page 17 - Shipping and retailers compete 0:07:40 Page 16 - Restaurant industry showdown 0:08:57 Page 15 - Pharma and imaging matchup 0:10:17 Page 14 - Industrials and manufacturing picks 0:10:47 Page 13 - Battle of the investment banks 0:11:32 Page 12 - Natural gas stocks debate 0:12:05 Page 11 - Oil production all-stars 0:12:51 Page 10 - Midstream pipeline operators 0:13:31 Page 9 - Integrated oil supermajors 0:15:06 Page 8 - Retail industry heavyweights 0:16:18 Page 7 - Payments processors face-off 0:17:40 Pages 5 & 6 - Telecom and cable giants 0:19:19 Page 4 - Video streaming platforms 0:20:30 Page 3 - Semiconductor tech companies 0:22:00 Page 2 - Enterprise software standouts 0:23:33 Page 1 - Big tech trilogyThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:00 Introduction:Welcome to Telltales, an investing podcast hosted by Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti. Each week we discuss topics ranging from geopolitics and macroeconomics to energy and technology. Stay tuned as we explore the intricacies of global markets and investments.00:00:34 World Oil Supply and Demand:Dive into the dynamics of the world oil supply and demand, exploring geopolitical impacts, trade disruptions, and market oversupply.00:01:30 US Gas Demand and Supply:Discussing the shifts in US gas demand and supply, including analysis on price trends, production insights, and future predictions.00:03:41 Government Spending Overview:An examination of U.S. government revenues and expenses, understanding the implications of fiscal policies and spending trends.00:04:25 Amazon Enters the Car Business:Exploring Amazon's venture into the automotive industry and its potential impacts on traditional dealers, manufacturers, and the broader market.00:10:47 The Future of Datacenter Spending - On Prem vs Off Prem:Discussing evolving trends in datacenter spending, focusing on the debate between on-premises and off-premises solutions.00:16:50 Healthcare Innovations and Investments:Spotlighting major players in the healthcare sector like BioNTech, Moderna, Pfizer, and others, analyzing financials and future outlooks.00:19:46 BioNTech vs Moderna:Comparing and contrasting the strategies and outlooks of BioNTech and Moderna in the rapidly evolving healthcare landscape.00:22:23 Vertex Update:Providing updates on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, discussing their financial health, research innovations, and market position.00:25:46 Bristol Myers Squibb Acquires Ryzen Biopharma:Discussing the recent M&A activity with Bristol Myers Squibb's acquisition of Ryzen Biopharma and its implications for the industry.00:28:09 Conclusion:Wrapping up the episode with final thoughts and a reminder for listeners to tune in again next week for more insights.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com