What's up! It's episode 83 of Payne Points of Wealth and volatility is insane right now. We're teetering on a bear market, crypto markets have melted down. Meanwhile, all of those disruptive technology stocks are down 70-80%, and you've got more recession talk with every passing week as pessimism rules the day. What's really going on in the economy and in the stock market? We're gonna give you our view on how to play it. We've got the plan you just have to listen to it. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about all those burning questions you have right now. Questions that we get from our clients that are also applicable to you so that you can get the best plan for financial independence.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Has the FED done a good job? [3:09] Volatile markets make bad decisions seem rational [7:20] The Tipping Point [10:14] Why are stocks and bonds down at the same time? [10:47] Is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market? [13:04] What influence will change of the majority party have on the stock market? [15:38] What percentage should be in a conservative vehicle if I retire in a year? [17:21] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:36] Rationally irrational  The whole problem with these volatile markets is it feels so rational. It sounds rational to sit in something that doesn't go down until the volatility is over and then you can just kind of work your way back in. That sounds so rational but you know what? It's irrational. It means you have to make two perfect timing decisions. Just think about it guys, a week ago we had a market that was up 900 one day and down 1000 the next. Are you going to tell me that somebody is smart enough to time that perfectly? I don't think so.  This week on the tipping point: Conference call Q&A We did our conference call for clients recently (we will drop the link down below so you can check it out if you'd like) and we had a lot of questions come in. We have over a thousand clients and a lot of them had the same concerns so in this episode we will discuss some of the bigger concerns that they had that most of you probably have too. Here are some of the questions we got. The first question that came in was why are stocks and bonds both down right now at the same time in this crazy market? Should we maintain a 60% stock, 40% fixed income/bond ratio, or move to a 70/30 ratio or something else? The next question that came in was assuming a global recession is inevitable does it make sense for a retiree to sell stocks in advance of the train hitting the wall, in other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market? Another good question that came in on our conference call was as the midterm elections approach, what influence will the change of the majority party in the House and Senate have on the stock market?  Another question was at 64 years old and retiring in another year, what percentage of my portfolio should be in a very conservative vehicle?  If you’re curious about our take on any of these questions check out the episode! This week’s hidden facts of finance From 1965 to 2021 Berkshire Hathaway shares generated a compound annual return of 20.1% vs the S & P 500's 10.5% a year return. Some forecasters look for gold to reach $3000 an ounce in the next two years. …Baby, One More Time by Britney Spears has now sold 25 million copies around the world making it the biggest selling album ever recorded by a teenage girl. The Reddit crowd who jumped in when the lockdown began have now given back all their once tremendous gains. Resources & People Mentioned Check out the conference call we talked about here. See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 82 of Payne Points of Wealth. Another day and more of the same issues. Major volatility in the stock markets as interest rates continue to go higher. The FED continues to tighten monetary policy. In addition to that supply chains are still an issue as China is on some sort of lockdown. In addition to that, we still have war in Eastern Europe. What do you make of everything? More economists every day calling for a recession. We're gonna give you our view on exactly what's going on right now in the economy and what you should be doing with your investment portfolio. On the tipping point today, are you a do-it-yourself investor? We're going to talk about the pros and cons of running your money by yourself. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Is it for you? We're gonna get into it today.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Going into recession? [2:48] Bond fund news [5:01] The Tipping Point [8:46] Are you living in an echo chamber? [10:29] What if something happens to you as a DIYer [13:17] Having an accountability partner [16:06] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:59] Pent up demand is keeping the economy growing We have this pent-up demand of people who have been trying to buy homes but there's been a shortage. Prices are going up and housing is still strong and there are still a lot of potential buyers out there. People are still trying to buy cars. There are still vehicle shortages. Companies are trying to expand but they can't find the workers. This pent-up demand is going to continue to keep the economy growing in spite of this inflation. In spite of all the negativity that's out there right now.  When you're going into recession you're past pent-up demand. Right? You have demand actually starting to dial back. That's been the argument of all these economists that with inflation so high the consumer is just about to pull back. Well, we've been waiting for that be we are not seeing that. There's no consumer right now that's starting to pull back, no matter how high inflation is. This is more indicative of when you come out of a recession not when you are headed into one. This week on the tipping point: Are you a do-it-yourself investor? We have a very special guest on our show today financial advisor at Payne Capital Management Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria. We have been talking about the differences between investing on your own and using a financial professional. For this episode we thought we could discuss some of the pros and cons of running money on your own and whether it makes sense to make that transition from being a do-it-yourself investor to working with a financial professional.  Frankie calls it being a self-employed investor. She says there are definitely some benefits to both, but there are, more importantly, some heavy risks, especially with the self-employed investor. When you do things yourself, you start to live in an echo chamber and have an advisor you have that third party, someone to bounce those ideas off of. Check out the episode to determine if DIY’ing is best for you or if it’s time to hand things over to the pros! This week’s hidden facts of finance Is the U.S. dollar getting a little stretched?  Flexibility has become the top worker demand. In the U.S. 2 in 5 workers desire control over their own schedules and nearly half would be willing to accept a 5% or more pay cut to get it. Apple marched into 2022 as the first company to reach a $3 trillion market value making its market cap larger than all but 4 countries. Mariah Carey insured her legs and vocal cords for $35 million each totaling $70 million together. Resources & People Mentioned Meet Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 81 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a very special guest for you today, Mr. Charles Payne, from Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business. He is also the Founder and CEO of Wall Street Strategies, Inc., an independent stock market and equity research company. Charles talks about his life philosophy, his journey to success, and the state of Wall Street today.  We're also going to talk about all the volatility in the market. We've got a recession potentially on the horizon, negative GDP growth in the first quarter, and earnings coming in strong. What does it all mean? We're going to give you our viewpoint on the stock market and the economy. Don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Living two childhoods [1:57] The transition from the Air Force to Wall Street [7:17] What should you study today to prepare for a career on Wall Street? [14:08] Charles’ view on financial security [21:57] Back to our regularly scheduled program…Wall Street is a zoo! [27:48] Getting past the noise [31:55] Hidden Facts of Finance [36:06] Making Money with Charles Payne Charles’ childhood was his driving force behind wanting to be in the financial industry. He had two very different childhoods, he tells us about them in the episode so be sure to check it out. At 14 he told his mom he was going to work on Wall Street and at 17 she co-signed so that he could buy his first mutual fund. After four years in the Air Force Charles started his career on Wall Street at E. F. Hutton. His exceptional people skills seem to be a running theme found throughout his success. Charles loves what he does and can’t imagine retiring. You can find him weekdays on his show Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business.  2022…The year of going nowhere FAST! It seems like we're back to where we were in January. We had an all-time record high the first week of January, then we had a big correction. Rallied back up but now we're back down to where we were corrected. It seems like we're standing still, but meanwhile, lots of economic numbers are coming in. We just had a very negative GDP down 1.4%. I say negative when you say it in the context of what the last quarter was, which was up 6.9%. Meanwhile, earnings are good, unemployment numbers are dropping, and margins are improving.  We're going nowhere fast. There's been tons of volatility, but if you look at it over the last 10 months, unless you're talking about growth or disruptive technology, the market's been sideways. The hawks are getting more hawkish because the FED is tightening financial conditions. The bears are getting more bearish. Wall Street is a zoo! This week’s hidden facts of finance Computer-driven trading accounts for 65-70% of daily equity activity More than 4.3 billion people spend about four hours a day on mobile devices. Russia's economy is smaller than New York's and technologically way more backward. More than 70% of Americans don't know what an NFT is. However, 23% of millennials in the U.S. collect NFTs Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 80 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is now officially at a 40+ year high! The highest level since December of 1981! Are we finally there? Is the economy going to go off a cliff or is the fact that you couldn't get a ticket to Miami to go for the weekend say that the economy's in really good shape? We're gonna explain that for you today. We're going to talk about every stage of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80 and what you need to be thinking about right now to make sure you're going to be completely financially independent. We're going to give you our playbook so go check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Inflation hurts! How do you offset inflation? [1:56] What you DON’T want in your portfolio [3:55] With all this horrible news why is the market going up? [7:16] The Tipping Point [10:23] 20’s [10:51] 30’s [12:33] 40’s [14:33] 50’s [16:01] 60’s [18:03] Hidden Facts of Finance [22:06] This week on the tipping point: What you need to think of at each stage of your financial journey What should you be thinking about at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, maybe even 80, when it comes to your financial journey?  In your 20s: The best thing you can do in your 20s is to save every penny you can because compounding works best when you start early. The earlier you start the more money you'll make. Use a Roth account if you can so that your money grows tax-free for life.  In your 30s: This is the stage where you want to start to consolidate and bring everything together into what I would call a more concerted effort, as opposed to just having a hodgepodge of investments in different places. You should also start building an estate plan and your health savings plan.  In your 40s: When you get into your 40s, hopefully, you've listened to our advice and you have accumulated wealth, and you're at a point where you have to get serious about the savings, especially college funding. Do this with 529 plans.  In your 50s: This is when you realize that you may not be working with the right financial advisor. If you take a look at your financial plan and realize you don't have one but instead, you have a collection of investments that were either bought or sold to you in mutual funds, annuities, stocks, and bonds. Make sure that you make those course corrections before it's too late. You can also make catch-up contributions at this age. Start looking at long-term health care as well. In your 60s: This is when you decide when to retire, look at how much money you'll need in retirement, and how you'll draw on your portfolios to get it. This is where you have to get really strategic in your planning because now you're there. This week’s hidden facts of finance As of 2020, it's estimated that Americans saved over 60 million commute hours per day with remote work. The electronic system was 5% of the cost of a car in 1970, it's expected to be 50% by 2030. Monte Python And The Holy Grail's budget was 200,000 pounds and was raised by 10 investors contributing 20,000 each. Three of those investors were Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, and Genesis.  In 1994 Jeff Bezos famously spotted that the internet was growing at 2300% per year. That made him leave his high-paying private equity job to start Amazon. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Hey, what's up! Welcome to episode 79 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets are going crazy! They’re going up, they're going down, they're going sideways! There has been a lot of volatility going nowhere fast as interest rates continue to climb higher. On top of that, we've got two-thirds of economists talking about a potential recession. We're going to tell you what we think about a recession and what we think the economy is going to do over the next 12 months. On the Tipping Point, we'll talk about investing with your emotions. Are your emotions are holding you back from making good investment decisions? Listen now to hear our advice on how to fix that!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Are things worse than they’ve ever been? [1:19] One thing we see lacking in portfolios [5:20] The combination you want for a healthy economy [7:56] The Tipping Point [10:17] The biggest overweighting culprit [13:13]  When it’s appropriate to factor in emotions [15:42] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45] Do you have a pro-inflation portfolio? One thing we see lacking more than anything else when we look at portfolios right now is that most of them don't have what we would call a pro-inflation portfolio. There aren't enough inflation hedges in the portfolio. There are too many assets that are reliant on low-interest rates and low inflation. We're probably not going back to less than 2% inflation like we saw the last decade and interest rates aren't going back to under 1% anytime soon. It's like just not happening.  A lot of investors still want to hold onto what did well in the last 10 years. They're still on that growth trade. They still want to own all those large mega-cap stocks like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple. Those stocks could go up, it's possible, but if we learned any lesson from the great tech bubble back in the late 90s’-00s’ it’s that a lot of these big companies like Microsoft can have a whole decade where the revenue continues to go up, the company does well, but the stock does nothing. That's one of the risks you have with a lot of these hot names. It's not that they get crushed. It's just that they don't do anything.  This week on the tipping point: Bad emotional decisions There are two huge emotions in investing. Fear and greed! Any decision made on either one of them has always historically been wrong. When it comes to making decisions about investments, it's extremely emotional.  A lot of times when you make decisions, you think you're being logical but you're actually being emotional. When you act emotionally you end up making bad decisions about how to allocate your capital. So in this episode, we talk about some of the bad emotional decisions we can make and how to protect ourselves from...well...ourselves. Removing emotion will help you make good, pragmatic, long-term decisions to create wealth over time and reach financial independence. Go listen now to see if maybe you are allowing emotions to damage your portfolio, and what to do if you are! This week’s hidden facts of finance From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets appreciated more than 16% a year. Whereas commodities returned about 6% a year and the NASDAQ only returned 1.6% a year. Fast forward from 2010 to now, the NASDAQ has returned 17% a year and emerging markets have only returned 3% a year, and commodities -0.15% a year. How times change! Archeologists discovered prehistoric human remains, ceremonial artifacts, and possibly the footprint of an ancient dwelling on the site of a planned 75 story residential condo tower in Miami. Talk about holding back project deadlines! 55 years ago, the photo session for the Beetles. Sgt Pepper's album cover took place. It cost nearly 3000 pounds, which was a huge sum at the time when album covers typically cost around 50 pounds. Over the long term, history shows the stock market has returned about twice as much as residential real estate. The S&P 500 returned, 12.47% annually from 1972 to 2021 vs only 5.41% for residential housing. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 78 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have sparked a huge rebound over the course of the last couple of weeks. Ending the quarter, just down a little bit for the year. So what's the deal? Is this just a dead cat bounce? Markets are ready to fall off a cliff, we're going into recession because of high inflation, or is this beginning of a huge booming bull market as the economy chugs along? We're going to give you our thoughts on that, our viewpoint on where things are going today. And on the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those false notions that you have when it comes to your financial independence plan that you need to eradicate from your brain to make sure that you can be financially free. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Dead cat bounce? [1:09] What will the market do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? [3:52] Concerns about open-ended bond fund [6:07] The Tipping Point [8:45] The proverbial magic retirement number [10:13] You’ll spend less money in retirement [11:53] No need to plan [14:45] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:57] Are rate inversions an indicator of looming recession? What is the market going to do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? We're already starting to see some inversions in rates in that shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term rates. Every headline this week says that's a precursor to a recession.  It's a bunch of BS. It's a terrible indicator because there have been so many times that the curve was inverted and we didn't go into recession. But economists and the talking heads on TV love to talk about this. The other part you have to think about is that the government has manipulated the curve. They have this 900 trillion dollar balance sheet where they bought all these long-term bonds, which is keeping rates artificially low. Now it's getting a little wonky, but the point is, it's a BS indicator. They always roll it out every couple of years and it doesn't necessarily mean we're going into recession. In fact, it's been disproven over and over again many times.  This week on the tipping point: False beliefs Clients have a lot of big misconceptions or beliefs when it comes to what it means to be financially independent. Things like how much money you should have or you know what it should look like to be financially independent. We thought we could talk about some of those false beliefs that you have that are dangerous and are probably ruining your financial life.  It's as dangerous when you build a house without a foundation as it is to build a financial plan without a foundation of a plan. If you're just sitting there arbitrarily coming up with some number, the goal post will keep moving. Check out the Tipping Point segment in this episode to hear about the false beliefs we have come across over the years.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Southeast Asia is ditching pandemic restrictions at last! Promising an economic rebound for 650 million or so citizens. There are opportunities in Southeast Asia right now. The ProShares Ultra QQQs that's three times leverage on the NASDAQ is the most actively traded exchange-traded product this year.  Limited supply is helping home values. 2022 home price appreciation is estimated to hit 12%. Supply is a problem.  ESG ratings - don’t base your investment picks on a rating especially when Wall Street can charge you a higher percentage on products that they say are “ESG”  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 77 of Payne Points of Wealth and the market's finally finding some footing. We're getting some big up days. Is this just a bear market rally—a fake out—or is this the real deal? Are we're going to see all-time highs this year? We're going to talk about that along with the fact that we have interest rates...going up, oil prices...going up...inflation…going up! Are we going into a recession? So many economists are talking about it for 2023. We're going to tell you what we think you should be doing right now. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about those financial nuggets out there, those assets you forgot about long ago that you need to readdress to make sure your financial independence plan is in order. You don’t want to miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Interest rates up = stock prices up [1:11] What the market is starting to tell us [3:13] Meanwhile on the inflation front [6:29] The Tipping Point [9:16] Multiple 401Ks does not make you diversified [13:29] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:59] It’s not about what’s going on with inflation…today What’s happening with inflation today isn’t what the market is pricing today. What the market is going to start pricing in today is what inflation looks like in 12 or 24 months. The truth is, no matter what the media tells you, inflation is very likely going to be lower. That's what the market is starting to tell us right now. At this point, we’ve already gotten past the fact that the FED is going to raise interest rates. It's not going to be a surprise. They have pretty much telegraphed what this year looks like with interest rate hikes. There's nothing shocking about that. What you have to ask yourself as an investor is what will the world look like 12 to 24 months from now? What will the Payne's be saying on their podcast then? This week on the tipping point: Forgotten assets At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we do a lot of financial projections each year. We have three certified financial planners on our staff and we do everything from a planning-based approach. One of the parts of our process—which we think is very powerful— is a financial audit. We tally up everything you have and build a financial portal so that you can get a bird's eye view of everything you're holding. A lot of times people have assets they have totally forgotten about.  Rediscovering forgotten assets is way better than slipping on an old pair of jeans and finding $20 in the pocket!  A common forgotten asset we see, especially with millennials and even baby boomers, are old 401Ks from past jobs. A 401K is a great tool but it's a lousy place, a terrible platform, to invest your money. When you have multiple 401Ks in your portfolio you are paying multiple fees, have limited investment options, and you won’t be nearly as diversified as you think. Check out the episode to hear all the reasons we think this is a bad idea and what a better option is for that money.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Andy Warhol’s silkscreen portrait of Marilyn Monroe will be put for auction this Spring with an asking price of 200 million. That will be the highest asking price for any piece of art at auction in history. U.S. office occupancy is still just 40%, despite the phasing out of mask and vaccine mandates for 98% of the country. Happy 75th birthday to Elton John this month! With 300 million records sold, 59 billboard top 40 singles, nine #1 singles, seven #1 albums he is Billboard's greatest solo artist of all time. Foreign investors have dumped a record 6 billion Chinese shares in the first three months of 2022 due to fear of new coronavirus outbreaks and the risk that Western countries will sanction Beijing as it supports Russia's war in Ukraine. That might be the counter-trend. It might be time to buy Chinese stocks. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 76 of Payne Points of Wealth and we are wondering if every strategist and economist will be wrong. Probably! Today we're going to talk about what the sentiment is on Wall Street and what investors are thinking right now. Hint, hint...they're very negative on the economy and the stock market. We're going to give you our contrarian view of what we think is going to happen over the course of the next couple of months, especially with interest rates going up now that the FED is officially raising interest rates for the first time since 2018.  The conflict in Ukraine continues to go on.  We're going to unpack a lot for you today and talk about some old-school wisdom. Bob's going to go back to the 70s’ at Merrill Lynch (when he had long hair and listened to Led Zeppelin) and tell you exactly what you need to think about philosophically when it comes to the markets. Let's hop to it. We got a great show today.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Geopolitical conflict is not as damaging to the market as you’d think [1:23] We are in an economic boom [3:19] The psychological aspect of inflation [6:54] The Tipping Point [9:26] Markets return to the mean [10:31] The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom [13:31] Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve [16:19] Bull markets are much more fun than bear markets [18:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:58] Abundant Americas -vs- Negative Networks The one thing that we've been stating every week is that we're in an economic boom, no matter what those strategists and economic gurus tell you. At the end of the day, we have an abundance of jobs, and wages are going higher. People are NOT dialing back their spending. Even with oil prices skyrocketing it's not going to stop them from spending, especially now that the economy is full-blown reopened. No one cares about COVID anymore or at least not enough to stop them from living life. We've learned to live with it. These are all big, big drivers for economic growth. We should write an article every week, "If things are so good, why do I feel so awful?" Because after you look at the media or watch the news you're like, oh my gosh, things are so bad. But meanwhile, the US house's net worth is 150 trillion with a T. We're the wealthiest we've ever been in the history of the country.  This week on the tipping point: Bob Farrell’s rules of investing Here’s a list of Bob Farrell’s 10 rules that are still true today. Check out the episode to hear a breakdown of our favorite ones! Markets tend to return to the mean over time Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen Bull markets are more fun than bear markets This week’s hidden facts of finance John Templeton following Bob-isms he didn’t even know about! Ukraine raised 63 million in crypto donations and people were scammed out of just as much. How’s that for secure currency? The metal nickel spiked to 100,000 per metric ton on the London metal exchange The asset manager’s $140 billion Pimco Income Fund held $1.14 billion worth of Russian government international bonds as of the end of 2021.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 75 of Payne Points of Wealth and the war is intensifying in Ukraine. Interest rates are moving higher. Markets are all over the place. Volatility is insane right now. There are lots of questions about the economy, the price of commodities, the price of oil. Is it going to put us into a recession? We're hearing a lot of talk about that. We're going to give you our vantage point today. How to play it, how to invest your portfolio. We're also going to talk about how you set goals for your financial independence? What do you need to be thinking about psychologically and how to put that plan in place? How do you start to think about what goals are realistic and unrealistic? Listen and find out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Investing is so counterintuitive [2:38] The Tipping Point [8:26] What you can control [10:05] What’s your number? [12:29] Are your goals realistic? [13:43] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:18] Why is investing so difficult? Investing is so difficult because the market's always climbing this wall of worry. The headlines are NATO. The headlines are Ukraine. Headlines are inflation. Once everybody feels good about that, they're not going to wave a flag saying it's safe to invest because there will be new concerns. That's why it's so difficult to stay invested and to invest in the face of all this trouble.  We have an inflation number that's close to 8%. You can't sit in cash. I don't care what the conventional wisdom is. It's more critical than ever that you get a return on your money. For all the volatility right now, the question is always what market is getting hit? Not all markets are getting hit. Technology, growth, all of things we warned you about on this podcast are getting decimated right now. However, if you look at old school value stocks... Berkshire Hathaway is up this year, it's in positive return. Our value portfolios are barely down for the year and of course those commodities are finally going through the roof. What it comes down to is you've got to have a portfolio that addresses a lot of issues and cash just doesn't do that.  This week on the tipping point: Setting goals We spend a lot of time helping people with their goal setting. We also spend a lot of time thinking about how to help people articulate and envision what they want for their life and their financial independence. Today we will talk about psychology and what you want to think about when it comes to creating your own realistic and achievable financial goals. We will share the process that we use to help our clients come to the conclusion of what they want financially.  When it comes to pain points, this is absolutely the most important one there is, and that is achieving financial independence.  It's a very personal thing. It's something that you have to understand what it looks like for you. It's not a rule of thumb and it's not what your neighbor is doing. It's your unique financial independent picture. Do you know what it looks like? This week’s hidden facts of finance Russia is the world's third-largest producer of oil. Who’s #1? 35 years ago this month U2 released Joshua Tree Longest closing of Wall Street on record Who showed up 12 days late to the 1908 Olympics in London? Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 74 of Payne Points of Wealth, Russia is moving further into Ukraine and markets are going haywire. The volatility's extreme right now. We know the FED is raising interest rates next month but what does this mean right now? Is it time to go to cash or is it time to take advantage of the volatility to create your wealth long term? We're gonna break it down for you from our vantage point. We're also going to talk about annuities today. Annuities aren't bought they're sold. Is it a good investment or a bad investment to have in your portfolio for your path to financial independence? We'll give you our thoughts on that as well. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... It's the surprises that you don't anticipate that move everything [1:48] The tech wreck [5:03] Why we are so optimistic [7:11] The Tipping Point [9:27] To get something you have to give something [12:14] Annuities are horrible inflation hedges [15:24 Hidden Facts of Finance [19:40] Why we're so optimistic Look at what happened in New York this week. They said no more masks and no more Vax ID cards! You're allowed to live your life again. The economy is going to boom. People are flush with cash and they're tired of being stuck in. People are going to get back to traveling. The economy's going to keep booming. The supply chains will eventually become unclogged and what happens is the market looks forward.  When you look at prices going down right now, it's what I call price adjustment. It's a math problem. Interest rates are going to be higher, inflation's higher. You put that into the equation. You get a different answer. It's lower. But you know what we don't hear on the financial news at all? The PE ratio on the S&P 500 is very reasonable right now. NIt's a good time to be buying. Not panicking.  This week on the tipping point: Annuities We're going through a period now where it's very different, the last 40 years have been low inflation, actually a deflationary environment but now we're seeing inflation. Hopefully, we don't go back to the hyperinflation of the 70s. It was horrible, you can't imagine how bad it was, but we just had a 7.5% year over year rate on the CPI. That could see 8% on the next report and inflation is the biggest issue. It's the biggest risk every investor has in their portfolio right now. Annuities are horrible in terms of inflation hedges.  Once you get that fixed income and you give up your principle, you get the same amount every single year. Yet your cost of living is going up every year. That means the amount you're getting each month $5,000, $10,000, whatever, in tomorrow’s dollars it's like getting half because it doesn't adjust with inflation.  Meanwhile, a diversified portfolio with bonds, dividend-paying stocks, the cash flow over time is increasing exponentially to keep up with inflation. In fact, if you look at stock dividends, they've increased over the inflation rate since 1950. So annuities don't solve for the most important, most critical aspect of your financial independence plan and that is inflation. This week’s hidden facts of finance The 15 managers with the highest performing funds in 2021 raked in a collective 15.8 billion last year! The global value of crypto grew by nearly 1.5 trillion last year, compared with the S&P 500’s rise to nearly 9 trillion market value. 75% of 2020 SPACs traded at or below $10 25 years ago Bowie bonds were issued on the US Stock Exchange Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 73 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling, as we're recording this Russia is invading Ukraine. We've got financial conditions tightening as global banks around the world are raising interest rates. Is this the end? Are we going to a big, BIG bear market? Are we going into recession? Or is this the buying opportunity of a lifetime? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that. We're also going to tell you exactly what to do with your money.  On the tipping point today, we have a special guest, Frankie Lagrotteria, and we'll talk about almighty income. You need income for your financial independence plan but how do you create that income? How do you create an income plan where you don't run out of money? We're going to give you our playbook. Check it out!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the market? [1:08] The gift that keeps on giving [4:36] Living through the manias [8:15] The Tipping Point [10:52] The biggest challenge with creating income [12:58] Sweat equity vs passive income [14:23] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:25] Bear market or a correction The best thing in the world is that we live in the great old US-of-A! Look at the people in Ukraine being subjected to this aggression from Russia. As investors we have to look at what's going to happen to the markets as a result of this. History tells us that regional conflicts, unless they end up turning us into a world war, do not bring us to a bear market.  This is a correction, not a bear market. We didn't go to a bear market after Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Korea, or Vietnam. Only after World War II started. It is a regional conflict. If you look at the GDP of all of Russia, it's about the size of Texas and Ukraine is even smaller than that. At the end of the day, if you look at these geopolitical issues that we've had in the past, usually things work themselves out and eventually investors start looking at what's going on in the economy. And right now the economy is good! This week on the tipping point: Income One thing we've found at our firm Payne Capital Management, with the thousand or so relationships we have, is that one of the most critical components to your financial independence plan is income. You hear a lot of talk about income. How do you generate income? What's a good income? What's a bad income? How do you equate for inflation?  The cornerstone of any financial independence plan is that you're generating enough income that you can live on it. So in today's episode with special guest Frankie Lagrotteria we will do a deep dive today into understanding what kind of income you can produce on your portfolio to give yourself that freedom that we're all thinking about when we're investing our money. Check out the episode for all the tips! This week’s hidden facts of finance Fights to space booking now! Check it out here! New movies, Jack Ass & Scream, killing it at the box office!  Pink Floyd’s album Dark Side of the Moon has been on Billboard's Top 200 Album chart for 962 weeks! More than any other album ever! Did you know Google was not the original name for Google? Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 72 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have the three R's right now, 'Russian', 'Repricing', and 'Rates', you’ll want to listen to hear what that’s all about. The market isn't going anywhere fast as it's trying to find its footing. We're going to give you our outlook for what we think is going on right now and how you should position your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, I know you're not watching the Olympics—nobody's watching the Olympics, but we're gonna talk about the Financial Olympics to make sure that you can be financially independent. Go check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The 3 R’s [1:04] Investors fear uncertainty [5:51] The Tipping Point [9:26] Inflation marathon [10:47] Recession hurdles [11:29] Hidden fee toss [13:21] Portfolio balance beam [16:30] Synchronized planning [18:54] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:48] Value trumps growth in the current market Investors fear the uncertainty of what can happen in the future. They price in more of a pessimistic outlook and once that fear is realized, they say, "oh wait, that wasn't so bad. The economy's still booming. I'm still living my life. I'm still spending." So inflation is something that we're fearful of because it's skyrocketing right now. But remember the biggest cure for higher prices is higher prices.  The market isn't selling off. One specific market is selling off. It's those growth stocks and if you look at growth specifically right now, that's taking the brunt of any selling. Value stocks, any company that has pricing power in this new environment of higher prices where they can raise their prices and their customers are willing to pay those higher prices, their earnings look awesome! This week on the tipping point: Financial Planning Olympics Viewership for the Olympics is down big right now but I thought we could talk about something more exciting than the Winter Olympics and that's the Financial Planning Olympics and how we can equate the Olympics to some of the financial planning issues that we've come across in our firm. A lot of managing money or getting people to financial independence is similar to being in the Olympics.  When we think about the summer Olympics and running we think about the inflation marathon. That's the thing about inflation, it's like death by a thousand cuts. If you look at it historically every 20 years, your purchasing power is cut in half, every million dollars you have today is only worth half a million dollars over the next 20 years. That's very problematic when you're trying to be financially independent. Another event in the Financial Olympics is the recession hurdles. It's those blocks that the economy puts in your way, on the way to making your free financial goals. Things like recessions, bear markets, hyperinflation, all those things can disrupt your portfolio if you're not properly invested. Check out the episode to hear about some of the other Financial Planning Olympic events like Hidden fee toss, Portfolio balance beam, and Synchronized planning.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Median housing price between 2006 and 2021 35% of the stock bought by Robin hood users are concentrated in 10 companies compared with at least 24% by retail investors Queen’s greatest hits collection was so popular in the UK that one in every three British families now owns a copy Prosecutors charged a New York couple with conspiring to launder proceeds of 119,000 Bitcoin valued at 4.5 billion Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 71 Payne Points of Wealth and markets are trying to find their footing as unemployment is coming down. More people are getting jobs, labor participation rates are going up. The FED? We have no idea what the FED is going to do. They're keeping it a secret. All the while we're seeing wages go up, we're seeing productivity in the economy go up, and we're seeing pessimism amongst investors. What does it all mean? We're going to break it down for you today and we're going to talk about one of our favorite Americans Ben Franklin. A Great Philadelphian. What he said back in the day that you can apply to your finances to make sure you're on track for your plan for financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... How tough is the FED going to be on inflation? [1:07] The cure for higher prices is actually higher prices [3:31] One end of the Seasaw goes up, the other end goes down [5:54] The Tipping Point [9:20] A penny saved is a penny earned [12:18] He that lives upon hope will die fasting [14:30] There are no gains without pains [16:24] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:32] The cure for inflation The cure for higher prices is actually higher prices. Right now the consumer doesn't seem to care about price. You're paying $3.50 a gallon at the gas pump, depending on what state you live in, but it's not hurting demand. As a percentage of income, it's not as bad as it's been in the past. We still see that demand. But if prices keep spiraling higher, people are going to stop spending. If it gets too costly, they're going to tell you, they're going to let the retailers know, no more. Right now what I think you are going to see happen is you have inflation, especially price increases. Higher prices will take care of themselves. Inflation will take care of itself. And because we have productivity, this economy will continue to rock because companies are being very innovative.  This week on the tipping point: Ben Frankiln{isms} Investment in knowledge pays the best interest. Know what you own and why you own it. You should be able to explain each and every investment to your grandchild in less than five seconds. And if you can't, that means your portfolio is too complex and you better have a financial advisor you can trust. Another Benjamin Franklin quote is a penny saved is a penny earned. You can apply this to a lot of you that are looking to retire probably sooner than later. The best time the start investing and saving is when you start making any money at all, it doesn't matter what age you are. He that lives upon hope will die fasting. This goes to that whole mindset that hope is not a strategy. Basically, it means is that you don't want to just wish your portfolio to do well. You have to make good conscious decisions about how you're investing your money. Another great Ben Franklin expression is there are no gains without pains. You have to suffer some volatility, there's no reward without risk. This week’s hidden facts of finance Taylor swift has 8 different albums charting on the Billboard 200 album chart, a huge amount for any artist. but Prince holds the all-time record. Global oil demand is fully recovered, nearing a hundred million barrels per day. The probability of success when day trading is only slightly better than flipping a coin. Hackers targeted two firms that thousands of public companies use to make electronic filings with us securities and exchange commission. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 70 of Payne Points of Wealth. The year is starting off with lots of uncertainty about the Fed. What are they going to do with interest rates? You've got every firm out there predicting that it's going to be apocalypse now with interest rates being hiked seven, eight times, heck even nine times! Who knows! But what does that mean for the markets? Is the economy slowing? Is it slowing too much? Are we going to see that recession that we're hearing about every single week? We're going to tell you exactly what our playbook is to invest and what you should be thinking about, and how to allocate your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about a lot of things that we hear you say, (that you shouldn't be saying) when you're trying to be financially independent. We're going to point it out and get you on the right path to financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... No one wants to catch a falling knife [1:17] Short term volatility doesn't equal what's going on in the economy [5:24] The Tipping Point [9:07] It comes down to having the right financial advisor [12:22] If I just had a million dollars [15:23] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45] Keep your eye on the long term prize Keep in mind that correction is merely that, it's not a substantial change in the direction of the economy. We just had really good numbers come in from November and December in housing and retail sales. About 170 companies have reported earnings so far for the quarter and 77% have beat analysts' expectations. That GDP number came in a lot higher than anybody anticipated. So the economy is still very, very strong. Short-term volatility doesn't necessarily equal exactly what's going on in the economy. Keep your eye on the prize. Don't let all this noise get you out of your long-term portfolio.  This week on the tipping point: Phrases people say We probably look at over 50 portfolios a month. It's very typical to hear people say a lot of the same things. “When will I be in good enough financial shape to retire?” “Can I afford this?” “If I only had a million dollars I’d be able to retire comfortably.” Are these phrases right? Are they wrong? Part of it is probably that people just want to hear someone say that it looks okay because when it's just you, left to your own devices self-talk sometimes can you put us in a really negative place and we don't see the big picture.  People are afraid to sit down and do planning because they don't want to know that the answer is bad. More than not, even if you're not there yet and you can't be financially independent tomorrow if you just start you're going to get there sooner than you think.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The median home price in 1960 was $11,900. In 2021 the average new home price was $453,000!  The cost of acquiring the rights to use the Beatles music in the film Yesterday was around 10 million, 40% of the total movie cost. In 1932 wooden bills were temporarily made and used in Tenino, Washington because there was a major cash shortage at the time and wood was readily available. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 69 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are literally falling apart right now! Are we going into a bear market? Is this the end? There are a lot of economists calling for a recession.  We went through a period in the last couple of years where the hottest stocks in the market were something called pre-revenue companies. In other words, they weren't making any money, but they got all the money from newbie investors, investing in innovation and disruption. Well, we are seeing disruptive technology getting destroyed, whether it's Bitcoin, Peloton, or Tesla it’s getting destroyed. The lesson learned… invest in companies that make money and better yet pay dividends. Are you afraid of retirement? Do you think you can retire? Are you afraid that you can't be financially independent? What do you do with your money now? Should you be sitting in cash? We're going to address all of those issues in this episode! Check it out!  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The tale of two markets [2:05] Tightening and loosening conditions in overseas markets [6:53] The Tipping Point [11:07] Being bored in retirement [13:47] Lack of confidence in your ability to retire [17:43] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:49] Monday morning quarterbacks of the market It sounds so sexy, right? The market's selling off, you're getting to cash, you think you're being proactive and protecting yourself. Markets change on a dime. Markets can rebound very quickly too and if you're sitting in cash, you missed the boat. That's why timing the market, in general, is treacherous! It's the worst thing you can do.  Then there are these pundits on Wall Street, these economists, they were so rosy with their outlook coming into the beginning of the year. All of a sudden the market sells off over a two-week period and we're hearing we're going to a recession. We've been talking about how tech stocks make no money and they're gonna go down. They're always playing money morning quarterback. They don't say this stuff before it happens. They always tell you after it happens, which has no value. This week on the tipping point: Why do we say we don't want to retire when (maybe) we actually do? When doing financial planning for clients we have found that when we hear “I don’t want to retire” it doesn’t always mean clients don’t actually want to retire. Sometimes it means you love your job and don’t want to go from 100 to ZERO. Other times it means you don’t know if you can afford to retire. The fear of being without a paycheck is very real for many people. There are also a lot of things that can happen that can take the choice away. Our solution is to not talk about the “wanting” to retire but setting your financial independence date. That point when you can decide to do whatever you want and your paycheck doesn’t get a vote! The stress and anxiety of worrying about money leads to other health issues so knowing that you're financially independent, knowing that you don't need to work is also a huge benefit in the long run and will promote even more longevity.  This week’s hidden facts of finance China racked up a record $676 billion trade surplus for 2021, a 60% jump from the pre-pandemic year of 2019. The average number of books read per year is down to 12.6, a drop from 15.2 in 2016. 44 years ago the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack started a 24 week run at #1 then went on to sell over 30 million copies worldwide, making it the best-selling soundtrack of all time. Wage inflation is real! CEO of Goldman Sachs says he needed to boost pay by 4.4 billion or 33% to remain competitive. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Here it is, mid-January 2022 and we’re watching the markets sell off and interest rates skyrocket. The big question on everyone’s minds: Will inflation cool off the market and the economy? As a result, will we go into a recession because the FED is becoming too aggressive, too late? This episode is going to give you our take on the state of the economy, the markets, and our recommended investment strategies in light of what’s going on. And on our “Tipping Point” segment: We see lots of financial catastrophes in our line of work and we encourage you to ask this question, seriously: “Are you headed toward the rocks because you’re failing to plan appropriately?” We’ve got some important things for you to consider, so be sure you listen! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What a difference a year makes… the market is going down daily [1:22] The traditional hedge for inflation that truly works (it’s not Bitcoin) [5:09] The Tipping Point: Oversights that cause financial catastrophe [10:30] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22] The big correction never comes when people think it will None of what’s happening this year in terms of inflation and economic strength is much of a surprise. Growth is still going to be solid, unemployment is going down and wages are going up, so the overall economy looks pretty good. But the market hates uncertainty. The FED is letting everyone else leak information about what the FED is going to do, and not saying anything themselves. As a result, the market isn’t responding well. Bob’s advice is that you shouldn’t trust the FED to do what’s in your interest. You can learn a lot from history. For example, old-school stocks and commodities are great options. Learn how to understand what’s really going on behind the scenes (listening to this podcast will help) and what history tells us, resist the urge to panic and cause yourself more trouble, and stick to the fundamentals. This week on the tipping point: How Financial Catastrophe Occurs Much of the time financial catastrophe during retirement happens because of things that are overlooked by those trying to plan for their financial future. What sort of things are overlooked? INFLATION PLANNING: After doing thousands of financial plans for clients, with the average age of those clients being between 40 and 60 years old, so we have a couple of decades of inflation to figure in. At its long-term average, expenses double every 20 years. We see this missed quite often. ASSUMING EXPENSES WILL GO DOWN IN RETIREMENT: Many of our clients are not worried about the impact of inflation because they assume their living expenses will go down during retirement, Worse, they assume they will be able to cut back on what they spend. But most people don’t and healthcare costs can often cause expenses to stay the same or even go up. This is a big oversight. TAX PLANNING MISTAKES: The worst kind of “gifting” that you can do is when you gift Uncle Sam more than he’s owed through ignoring your tax situation. Every tax deferred investment you have (IRAs, 401k, etc.) is going to have a “Required Minimum Distribution” during your retirement years. If you don’t plan for that certainty, the income you receive from those RMDs could become a Weapon of Mass Destruction in your financial future because of how it impacts your tax liability through increased income. RETIRING TOO EARLY: Many retirees are forced to go back to work after they retire because they’ve underestimated the cost of living during retirement. But with a financial plan that includes wealth projections, you can plan for potential shortfalls. Many Advisors out there are winging it, not giving their clients the tools they need to accurately plan for their future. It’s terrible to get to 75 years old and have to go job-hunting. We have other tips to share with you on this episode, so be sure to listen. This could make the difference between a comfortable, appropriate retirement and one in which you struggle. This week’s hidden facts of finance A otherworldly jewel will be auctioned next month ($6.8m compared) TikTok influencers are making bank. Compared to CEOs, it’s unbelievable The global value of equities is $121 trillion Touring artists are making incredible revenue Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes TODAY’S GUEST: CFP Aaron Dessin — follow Aaron on LinkedIn Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 67 of Payne Points of Wealth, and the FED is going to release its triple threat as they taper their bond-buying. As they're going to start to unload their balance sheet and raise interest rates, maybe four times this year, it looks like the world has changed. What do you do now? We’ve got the market going up. We’ve got strategists telling you that we're going to get a big correction in the stock market. Are you going to get it? We'll unravel it for you, tell you exactly what we think about this year, and what you should do with your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to give you some of our more common sense, practical philosophies that you need to be applying to your financial plan right now. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Resigning to the fact that things are going to cost more [1:53] Dividend yields [5:58] The Tipping Point [9:32] Are you set up to weather the storm? [12:34] Hidden Facts of Finance [16:56] What year are we in? Inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years, oil is through the roof, we have a Jimmy Carter-like president in the White House, it’s like we’re in 1982! Here's the thing you have to remember, back in 1982 when we had this high inflation rate, inflation started to go up and we had the beginning of the greatest bull market in history, the S&P and the Dow. Let's say the Dow was at 800 it's now closing in on 36,000. Just keep that in mind, things looked really dire in 1982 and if you sat on the sidelines, you missed out on one heck of a move! This week on the tipping point: Underrated, simple philosophies you can use At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we have a mantra we have used for years: simplicity over complexity. We know we're in an industry that loves to sell products that are complicated, financial strategies that are high in fees that no one even understands that don't even end up working out that well. The number one rule we have with every portfolio, whether it's a 401k, IRA, joint account, you name it, we want every single investment in that portfolio to be liquid. So liquid that you can call any day and we can have all of your money in your checking account the next day.  Knowing what you own is as important as being able to access it! You have to put your portfolio into the stress test. It's not about when things are good. What you always have to think about is when things go bad, and they will, is am I set up to weather the storm. When the getting is good it’s hard to see those pitfalls. Check out the episode for more simple underrated philosophies you can use with your wealth plan.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The US suffered three periods of hyperinflation in the 20th century. One following each world war and then the great inflation in the 1970s. Evercore ISA calculates that the US M2 money supply has increased by an astounding 41% over the last two years. Warner Music just bought David Bowie's songbook for a reported $250 million. S&P 500's top 10 holdings represent nearly 1/3 of the index's return last year, even though the fund has 508 holdings. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

As the new year comes in, the economy is FULL of economic news you need to know. The Federal Reserve is more hawkish than ever with some unprecedented moves, tech stocks are being hit hard, interest rates are soaring, and oil prices are rising — all things that we predicted were going to happen to a large degree. How can you start the year off right with your financial plan? On this episode we’re going to tell you, including how to dig into your portfolio and assess how your biggest financial assets are likely being underutilized. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... There’s been a lot of volatility in the markets as the year’s begun [1:20] The Tipping Point: The right decisions for your biggest assets [10:35] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:35] As 2022 dawns our predictions are coming true What we expected has come to pass here at the beginning of the year: The FED is playing catch up. It’s been announced that the Federal Reserve will continue to taper off its bond purchases. It’s also been announced that interest rates will be going up. One last thing, the FED will begin taking money from the balance sheet to sell bonds. We saw all of this coming and told you about it in previous episodes. What we didn’t see is that the FED is doing all of this at the same time. The job market is a mess as well. Many people don’t want to get back to work after the pandemic because they are still living on the government handouts that were implemented. Others who are in the job market are demanding incredibly high wages. The bottom line is that dynamics we’ve seen this past year are changing going into the new year.  This week on the tipping point: What assets are you taking for granted?  As you look at your portfolio here at the beginning of the year, you should consider your biggest assets in terms of whether you’re using them most effectively. One example is your 401(k) — it’s typically one of the largest assets in an investor’s portfolio and is not managed effectively. On top of that, 401(k)s can be cumbersome to manage, don’t provide all the tools or stock choices you need, and can also be designed with blatant conflicts of interest in them as companies use them to promote their own stock. You must be very strategic with your 401(k). You should also consider whether your home (real estate) is doing everything it could for you, especially if you have two homes. Is it time to downsize or refinance that high-interest mortgage? It’s a seller’s market, so this could be the time. As well, look into the expenses required to maintain your home (or 2nd home). Could that money be put into better investments that can increase your cash flow or income? Don’t miss this episode! We cover a lot of items you don’t want to be in the dark about.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Florida’s population has mushroomed NFTs (Non Fungible Tokens) have become a head-scratching asset class Traditional carbon-based energy use is already at 2019 levels for the year The S&P has no “in-between” Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes ARK Innovation Fund Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

As we wrap up the year we’re seeing lot’s of interesting stuff… The FED Chairman is talking like a Dove but beginning to act like a Hawk. Is that a Dawk? Just watch, you’ll see that term springing up in common parlance and remember, you heard it here first! Inflation is running hot but it’s not going to stay that way. We’ll tell you why on this episode.  AND.. on this episode’s “Tipping Point” you’ll hear Bob and Chris explain which of my suggested “Financial Stocking Stuffers” go to those who are on the “naughty” list, and which go to those on the “nice” list.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... CPI and PPI both well above the estimates [1:22] Trends can turn quickly and badly [6:47] The Tipping Point: Year End Stocking Stuffers [8:09]] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:54] Inflation is high but is destined to drop This past year we’ve had lots of issues in the market but none as big as the supply chain. It’s been a mess all the way around. Some of it has to do with the semiconductor shortage, there’s also the labor shortage sparked by the government tax credits, etc. Those are driving inflation higher, but we have to remember… As time goes on, many of those problems will be fixed. One example: Intel is building TWO semiconductor plants in Alabama over the next year. They are not going to be caught dependent on foreign manufacturing again. We’ve also got a big problem in the labor market. There are more jobs than can be filled (greatest gap ever) and many who are employed are switching jobs to get a better wage. But in time, all of this will settle down and we are going to see how those with truly diversified portfolios are going to weather all the weirdness just fine. This week on the tipping point: Year-End Financial Stocking Stuffers Gifts for those on the “nice” list Fiduciary: Anytime a financial advisor is legally bound to work in your best interest as their client, it’s a winner. They won’t steer you wrong. Long term care insurance: The cost of medical care becomes higher as you age. Long term care insurance isn’t a bad idea, if you watch your premiums and run the numbers to ensure you’re still getting the best deal. Premiums can increase astronomically the longer you hold them. You must run the math to ensure it’s to your benefit. Gifts for those on the “naughty” list An annuity: Any so-called investment that comes from an insurance company is not to be trusted. Most of the time the fees are too high and what you receive is not comparable to what you pay. S&P 500: The S&P 500 is not what it used to be. Seven companies make up 25% of the index, which means you’re not getting true diversification if all you invest in is the S&P 500. And it’s a lot riskier than you think because you’re not getting full exposure to all 500 of the stocks.  High Yield Bonds: The main selling point is that these bonds pay a great rate of interest but because they are so risky, you may not get your money back. Think about it: companies that have to borrow at a high rate are unable to get financing at lower interest rates. That means they are risky.  Whole Life Insurance: Typically Whole Life works in reverse of what you really need. Don’t be fooled by the two-benefits-for-the-price-of-one sales pitch. This week’s hidden facts of finance 26% of U.S. investors have Crypto holdings 48 top execs have collected more than $200M each from stock sales 45 years ago this month, “Hotel California” was released (7th biggest selling album) Apple: 44 years to reach $1T 2 years later, $2T 15 months later, zeroing in on $3T  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes The Ark Investment ETF Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Is it possible we’re heading into the proverbial “Santa Claus” rally here at the end of the year? It’s crazy to consider given that we just experienced one of the biggest sell-offs in market history just last weekend. In this episode you’ll get all three of us weighing in on what’s going on as well as our thoughts about how Wall Street loves to gouge investors with fees of all kinds. We’ll educate you about how you can avoid as many of them as possible, so stick around and listen to this episode.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The markets are rebounding but the fundamentals remain the same [1:02] Unemployment is dropping, wages are going up, earnings are going up [3:53] What do most of us really care about when it comes to the market? [6:10] The Santa Claus rally is a real thing, let’s take advantage of it [8:03] The Tipping Point: Financial Services companies advise what benefits THEM [9:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [16:48] With last week’s drop, should you be hesitant about the current rebound? Lots of investors were shocked at the market drop last week and did what investors should never do… they moved their investments based on fear. But the reality is that your best bet is to BUY in times like that. You want to buy when prices are LOW and count on the rebound, which is what we’re seeing right now. We predict the rebound is going to continue, the so-called “Santa Claus” rally and beyond.  This week on the tipping point: Financial companies advise what benefits THEM The Financial Services industry is not a non-profit. Everyone working in the industry is being compensated (and should be), but you want to make sure that the people working with you are actually working FOR you. Are they recommending what will make them money, or what will make YOU money? There are many internal costs that never show up on your financial report or statement. It’s hard to weed them out of everything else to know what you’re really paying. You want to make sure your financial advisor is a fiduciary — a person who is obligated to work in your best interest, not theirs. And also, watch out for the annuities pitch and the structured product or structured note. You’ll be missing a lot of data you need in that pitch, so listen to get the insight you need to make the best decisions. This week’s hidden facts of finance Construction starts on new single-family housing will top $1M this year (and it’s not a bubble) The rally in industrial commodity prices is fizzling out (reflective of where inflation is going) COVID vaccination rates are higher in Brazil, the U.S. is in the middle of the pack The attack on Pearl Harbor instigated the Military-Industrial Complex Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

  Wow! Black Friday 2021 saw the worst stock sell-off ever! It came after the announcement of a new COVID variant that is supposedly sweeping the globe. But here are the facts most people don’t know about the stock market on Black Friday. It’s only open half of the day and computers are running the show based on algorithms. That means what you SEE happening in the market on that day isn’t a clear indication of what’s really happening. Everybody who knows what’s going on is out shopping and dealing with their turkey hangovers instead of working. We’ve got an assessment of the situation and some clear steps for you to take at year-end to move your wealth plan forward. It’s all on this episode. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What are we to think of the biggest sell-off ever, this past Black Friday? [0:58] Coronavirus announcements have had an impact, but not in a lasting way [4:44] Why it’s crazy to bet against economic growth right now [6:11] The Tipping Point: The pro moves you can use at year-end [9:12] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:44] The Black Friday sell-off was going to happen, with or without a new variant We’re all hearing that the announcement of the new COVID variant is what caused the sell-off on Black Friday, and sure, it has some influence on what happened. But in reality, here’s what history teaches us. Earnings seasons push a bull market forward and we were due for a pull-back anyway. When people are bullish the market tends to sell-off. But something else happens when people are bullish: the market goes up. The dynamics of our current economic situation haven’t changed, Our PMI numbers are good, consumer spending is good, and the economy appears to be going just as strong as it was before Black Friday. Betting against the market in a situation like this is not a good idea. People are going to figure out a way to thrive even when bad news comes. This week on the tipping point: End of the year wealth factors As the end of the year approaches there are a handful of things savvy investors do to save their hard-earned cash.  Harvest tax losses. Take profits if you are over-weighted in growth stocks. You can bank your losses against gains to save in capital gains taxes. Rebalancing your portfolio is important to do when the wind is at your back. Roth conversions are powerful for creating tax-free income. With 10 years of tax-free growth, you’ll break even on your money and everything that you earn on top of that goes into your pocket tax-free. Retirement accounts are a ticking time bomb. You have to pay taxes at age 72. If there’s a lot of money in those retirement accounts, that’s a lot of taxes. If you are in a low tax bracket now, pay the tax now on some of those retirement funds and put that money into a Roth to avoid higher taxes later. Take distributions from your retirement plan and give to the charities you care about directly from your IRA (up to $100,000). If you have appreciated stock, you can donate that to charity as well. If you are in a high-deductible health plan, look into health savings accounts. You can get triple tax-free benefits moving forward. This week’s hidden facts of finance Dec 2nd: the 20th anniversary of the Enron bankruptcy (the largest in history at the time) Only half of Americans have the funds to retire at 70 and maintain living standards Pfizer, Inc. was founded 172 years ago (a good example why you want to diversify) The world’s youngest billionaire lives in Germany Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

To quote Led Zeppelin,”The Song Remains the Same!” This great earnings season we’ve been experiencing continues, with companies experiencing their best performance in 7 years. In addition,the status quo is likely going to continue as we see Jerome Powell renominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman. That means interest rates are likely to increase next year. And that will have an opposite impact on the bond markets.  Going into the last month of the year, what does all this mean for your investments? We’ll break it down on this episode. And in this episode’s “Tipping Point” segment… you’ve been saving your money diligently, but what are you doing with it? We’re going to outline the things you might be doing wrong when it comes to your savings, so be sure to listen!  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Jerome Powell is renominated: a hawk or a dove… or maybe a turkey? [1:16] When the supply chain is repaired, inflation is going to go down [4:01] Is gold really an inflation hedge? No, but there are other great options like oil [7:55] The Tipping Point: Mistakes investors are making with their savings [11:59] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06] Inflation is increasing while yields are low… how does that work? The biggest math we’re seeing right now has to do with inflation. Inflation is running at 6% and yields are running at 1.7%. That can’t remain as it is. Interest rates are going to have to move higher, so we suspect there will be an increase in rates… so be careful with your bond portfolio because bond rates go down when interest rates go up. Historically, bond rates go up to keep pace with inflation but it’s trailing, so you need to be careful. In fact, Bob says the most important thing in your life as an investor is, “Don’t own a bond fund!” But that’s not the whole story… we’ve got more to say, so listen to get the full story.  This week on the tipping point: Mistakes you’re making with your savings Most of our clients and the people we talk to are diligent about saving, but are they doing the right things WITH that hard-earned money they’re stashing away? Not always. Here are the three biggest mistakes we see… Many savings plans include far too much cash. It’s a big problem because of inflation. Speculative investments are incredibly risky. Always have been, and always will be. Most people are not taking advantage of the tax benefits available to them. This week’s hidden facts of finance The National Retail Federation estimates a 9.5% increase in spending this Nov./Dec. Gold is only a reputation hedge reputationally, not statistically. Stocks deliver regardless of whether inflation is high or low (the real inflation hedge). Chinese personal wealth is leaping 77-fold to $120 Trillion. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Inflation is hitting 40 year highs and investors are aggressively jumping into the market to make up for what they’re losing. But is that the best approach? Other investors are keeping their powder dry by holding cash… but history has proven that holding cash is a losing proposition from the start. How can you hedge against inflation effectively? This episode is focused on answering that question, and not based on opinion, but on facts that have come to light through the course of history. Find out what your only real hedge against inflation is, on this episode. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... High inflation after a 40 year bull market… is this the new normal? [1:13] Why stocks, equities, and dividends are the only hedge against inflation [4:26] Diversification is the only way to succeed in long-term investing [8:19] The Tipping Point: Proactively protecting yourself against bubbles popping [10:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:29] Inflation like we’ve not seen for 40 years, and bullish investors respond After a season of all-time market highs we’re seeing inflation spike due to a number of factors. The response from investors is that everybody seems to be getting into the market, but is that wise? As Warren Buffet has been known to say, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” It could be time for investors to heed his advice. What is a good inflation hedge? Stocks, equities, and dividends, with statistics as proof that it’s the right approach. Listen to hear the facts.  This week on the tipping point: Proactively protect yourself against market bubbles There’s only one thing in the stock market that doesn’t change: investor behavior. It’s always the case that people think they can correctly guess when stocks are going to continue to rise and when they are going to fall. That’s one of the main reasons why people become indignant any time you suggest that their favorite investment is a bubble. The insist they will get out before it crashes, but as far as we can tell, there’s still no reliable way to know when that is going to be. Everyone is afraid of missing out, so they ride those bubbles much longer than they should, fail to diversify and invest wisely, and lose a ton when the bubble pops. Boring investments are the way to go, because over time your portfolio will consistently grow when you keep your portfolio in solid, proven stocks. This week’s hidden facts of finance Rivian is one of the bright so-called stars in the electric vehicle industry and its market cap is an unbelievable $140 billion. It makes no sense. Futures and options are proven ways to get burned for most investors. The dollar compared to the S&P 500: the dollar has no leg to stand on. Going to the mall is a thing again. Listen to hear all the details on these topics.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 60 of Payne Points of Wealth! Hard to believe we're 60 episodes in! We've got late nineties stock market fever. Literally, everything is going up right now. We've got a huge melt-up. It's starting to look a lot like the late nineties when those internet stocks were just rocking. We're going to tell you why we think this is a lot like the late nineties. We'll hit on what you have to be careful about because there are bubbles forming, what you need to avoid in your portfolio and inflation. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial sabotage. What are you doing right now that's sabotaging your path to financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Never seen a market like this [1:43] As good as it gets [5:25] The Tipping Point [9:50] Don’t allow your risk tolerance to fluctuate with how well your portfolio performs [12:11] Greed takes over fear [15:15] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:29] Could it get any better for the economy? Profits are extremely strong right now. Look at the third-quarter earnings, it's just been through the roof. Next quarter’s earnings are going to be good again too. We've got a hiring frenzy going on. Unemployment's coming down precipitously. We have all these people that have come off unemployment benefits getting back in the workforce and wages are going up. What's better than that. You're getting a raise at work, you have more money to spend and the fed isn't raising rates anytime soon, they're going to keep the party going. This is probably as good as it gets when it comes to the outlook for the economy. This week on the tipping point: Financial sabotage One thing that we've found managing all the accounts that we manage is a lot of times people put themselves in a position of financial sabotage. They make decisions that hurt them on their path to financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of the things that we find that people do that you need to avoid so you don't sabotage your financial life.  Don’t stalk your portfolio. Investing is hard, it's counterintuitive, when there's good news sometimes the market sells off. If there's bad news, the market goes up. It doesn't seem to make sense. If you're watching every day, checking your portfolio balance every day, it's a recipe for disaster. I can't tell you how many short-term focus investors have failed in the long run because they couldn't handle the pressure. Don’t allow your risk tolerance to fluctuate with how well your portfolio performs. The whole idea of diversification is that you're going to have something that's not working. If everything's working at the same time, then everything will also be NOT working at the same time. This week’s hidden facts of finance Cryptocurrency, an asset class (if we want to call it that) younger than the iPhone is closing in on $3 trillion in market cap. That’s equal to about a quarter of the world's mined gold or the entire money supply of the United Kingdom. That's insane.  The resulting labor crunch has boosted wages and emboldened workers to fight for a better deal. Work stoppages in 2021 have already surpassed last year's 10 and it may be the start of a trend reversal. Work stoppages numbered 145 in 1981 dropping to 5 in 2009, it looks like unions could be back.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up? It's episode 59 of Payne Points of Wealth and supply chains around the world are easing up. COVID cases globally are going down and profits are at an all-time record high as stock markets around the world are hitting all-time record highs. The question is, is it all going to fall off a cliff? Is this all too good to be true or is the economy going to continue chugging along? We'll look at some long-term tailwinds that could keep this economy moving into the roaring twenties along with your financial independence plan. We're also going to talk about those specific variables that you need to address in your financial life to make sure you're financially sound. You don't want to miss it. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A rockin’ market! [1:11] Everybody is doing well [3:36] Tailwinds for the economy [6:43] Don’t confuse brains in a bull market [9:03] The Tipping Point [11:07] Having a tax-efficient portfolio [13:21] How long do you expect to live? [16:11] How lucky do you feel? [18:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:23] Economic tailwinds There’s all this talk about how we're going to have a big burst of spending coming out of the pandemic and then it's just going to cool off again. Well, millennials are 25% of the population and are essentially going into their peak spending and earning years. Historically, the ages 45-55 tend to be when you spend the most money. You have household formation, kids, and more big-ticket items that you're buying. With the largest cohort of any population in America going right into that, it’s like the baby boomers back in the 80s', it’s going to lead to a lot of spending. Then you have this huge infrastructure bill coming down the line and when that passes that will be even more spending. Top all that off with the massive amount of inventories businesses are trying to build back up...doesn’t sound like a slowdown is anywhere in the near future. This week on the tipping point: Customizable variables When it comes to building financial plans for the families we manage here at PCM everyone's situation is a little bit different. So in this episode, we discussed some of the variables you need to customize for your unique plan.  When it comes to financial planning and your portfolio, sometimes we become more enamored with the value of the portfolio. Especially with our 360 portal where you can see how much you're worth. It's kind of fun as the market goes up to check and see how you did each day, week, or month—but it's not just about appreciation—you've got to have the income.  How much does your principal generate in income after taxes and inflation? It's so important to sit down with your advisor every year and look at what's important to you. What are your variables? What do you want to accomplish this year? Do you want to take a big trip? Do you want to give money to your grandchildren's education plans? Backing into those numbers is the most important thing to figure out how much income you're gonna need. Listen to the episode to find out which variables you should address. This week’s hidden facts of finance In the most recent quarter, Spain added 5.6 percentage points to its headline growth. French household spending jumped a whopping 21.5% annualized contributing to 10.5 percentage points to their growth rate. In fact, third-quarter growth results for the entire Eurozone outpaced the good old USA, well maybe not outpace as much as they're finally catching up because they're now playing out of the same playbook. They realize they've got to open their economies. It's not the end of the world. Spain, France, England, Germany, are all full of ordinary people, just like our country, and they want to get out and spend again. They want to live life! Europe is booming. The global economy is booming. We're seeing stocks go up all over the world so make sure you don't have all your money just in the S&P 500 because there are plenty of opportunities outside the US. Go global! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up it's episode 58 pain points of wealth and profits this earnings season are phenomenal! Companies are beating estimates by a landslide. It doesn't matter that supply chain issues or labor costs are going up. It's all inflationary. But guess what? These companies just keep raising prices on you and me, which is making their profits go through the roof. So what does this mean between now and the end of the year? As the market continues to go higher are we going to finally get that correction in stocks that big sell-off that Wall Street has been telling us about? We're going to give you our vantage point, exactly what you should be doing strategically between now and the end of the year. On the tipping point today we're going to drop some wisdom on you. When it comes to your financial independence plan, we're going to give you some insights that you can apply to your portfolio, your financial plan, to get you on track, to be financially independent. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... When’s the big drop coming? [1:24] Pipeline conspiracies? [3:41] The faults in being priced to perfection [6:49] The Tipping Point [10:39] Crisis is opportunity riding on a dangerous wind [11:15] A feather in the hand is better than a bird in the air [13:05] Accept something you cannot change and you'll feel better [14:43] A foolish man listens to his heart [16:33] Don't let statistics do a number on you [17:26] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:14] Pipeline conspiracies? It's amazing how the world changes, all of a sudden, how do we not have enough oil supply? The world's been awash in oil then all of a sudden it’s not?. I love a good conspiracy, and a lot of people are saying, or the “experts” are saying that the Biden administration is limiting production. I have a different theory on this. Perhaps there's just worldwide collusion going on. All the big energy companies are saying "You know what? We make a lot more money when oil is over $80 a barrel. Let’s just chill out on the production side of things. We will slow down on producing oil right now because when the price is at $30, that's terrible for profits." So I suspect there is big manipulation going on and I think it's all of these global oil companies who are very happy to slow down the production and keep those prices up! This week on the tipping point: Financial Fortune Cookies When you go to the Chinese restaurant nothing's better than getting that fortune cookie at the end and reading the wisdom within. Let’s open up your fortune cookie and apply it to your financial life and goals to be financially independent because there’s nothing funnier than getting a fortune cookie to help you run your portfolio! Crisis is opportunity riding on a dangerous wind. Sounds great but it reminds me of what Warren Buffet says, it is wise for investors to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. We're emotional human beings. It's so easy to panic when prices are going down or when you have that fear of missing out and overload your portfolio on what's going up the most. A feather in the hand is better than a bird in the air. I think the point is it's better to protect what you have than trying to reach for the stars and putting everything that you have at risk. Accept something you cannot change and you'll feel better. I think right now is a perfect example of that. We have so much uncertainty about our taxes going up. Are they going to pass another $2 trillion in stimulus? Is the dollar going to be worthless in a couple of years? Is inflation just going to destroy our purchasing power? Is the dollar going to be so weak that we can't afford anything? The list goes on and on. A foolish man listens to his heart. Don't use your gut feelings when it comes to investing. It's never right. This week’s hidden facts of finance Home prices are up a record 19.5% in the past year, according to Case Shiller data. However, home prices were removed from the official prices index, owing to political and statistical issues. If they were still included, inflation would be running at a 10% clip rivaling the early 80s'. It just goes to show you real estate is really inflated right now. Inflation is real and not transitory and if you've been listening to the Payne Points of Wealth Podcast you have known that for a year! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 57 of Payne Points of Wealth and the all-asset melt-up is upon us! Everything is going up right now. Oil prices are surging to all-time record highs every single day. Bitcoin, all-time record highs. Stocks, all-time record highs. What should you be doing right now? Is this a big bubble? Can it continue? We're gonna break down exactly what's going on in the market. We're also going to talk about your financial independence. Do you have a date when you want to be financially free or retired? We're going to show you exactly how to pick that date, how to build that plan, and get you on track for your financial independence plan.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Bad, bad, bad...BS! [1:05] Economics 101 [3:44] Bitcoin confusion [4:58] Stocks are backed by real assets [7:44] The Tipping Point [9:40] Pick a date vs picking an amount [11:06] It's not just accumulating wealth, it's investing that wealth properly [13:26] Following emotional market whims [16:09] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:58] Do you want to be punished at the pump or in your portfolio? A year, year and a half ago, we had a -$37 a barrel print on oil. Why? There was no demand! The economy was shut down globally because of the pandemic. Nobody needed oil. It was sitting out in tankers in the ocean with nowhere to go. Now it's $85 a barrel. Why? Because demand is strong. The economy's booming, not just here but globally. When the economy does well, oil usage goes up. When you have supply and demand the price goes up. Guess what goes up with oil? The stock market. You want oil to go up, not because you want to spend a lot of money at the gas pump, but because you want to see your portfolio go up. So let's go oil higher, higher, higher! This week on the tipping point: When is it safe to live off of your portfolio? Let's talk about retirement. In this day and age, it's different. If you love what you do, you'll never work a day in your life as somebody once said. We think it's more important to think about financial independence and having a big pile of go-to-hell money, where you can decide to do what you want to do every day. A lot of times we talk about wanting to have X amount of money at a certain date. Whether it's a million dollars or 3 million, whatever that arbitrary number is.  It's more important to pick that date because for everybody that pile of money will be different. Maybe you have a pension, or social security coming in, what if you have an inheritance, so it really just depends on you specifically. So first you've got to decide l when is that gonna be? Is that five years from now, 10 years from now? If you're a millennial, maybe you want to take a break from working for a couple of years to travel and then go back to work. We have to solve for all of these problems, but you have to begin with the end in mind and that's picking that date before you think about the pile of cash. This week’s hidden facts of finance When Robinhood last reported quarterly earnings, the trading platform said it had 22.5 million funded accounts. The vast majority of those are considered active. Up 130% from a year earlier, that's a lot of people getting into the stock market. A lot of people are investing in the stock market for the first time and like everyone who starts out as a newbie investor usually they pick some very speculative ideas and end up losing money. So Robinhood is probably pretty appropriately named, taking money from the poor and giving to the rich wall street executives who don't care about you. At some point, they'll learn and give us a call. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 56 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is upon us. For all intents and purposes, it should be a blowout again this quarter, company's profits should be through the roof. We have the banks reporting this week so far, JP Morgan's reported, BlackRock blew out the estimates. These are all good omens, but funny enough, investors are extremely bearish right now with plenty of cash on the sidelines, waiting for a correction. We're gonna address that today. We're gonna tell you what you should be doing with your money. How to play the next move in the market, how they'll play the rest of the year as inflation continues to kick in. Oil, it's over $80 a barrel! At a seven-year high! Folks. Inflation. Is. Real! It's here. We've been telling you about it. We're gonna talk about that. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about maybe you've done a great job saving for your financial independence plan, but what are you missing right now that you need to add into your plan to make sure that you're completely financially free. We're gonna break it down. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Everybody’s worried about…? [1:31] Is a melt-up coming? [3:07] A great example of how markets work [6:07] The Tipping Point [10:14] Too much risk is still risky[12:36] The ticking tax timebomb [15:56] It’s ok to live a little [17:22] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:57] A real-life example of how the markets work Here's a great example of how markets work. If you look at what we call the rotation trade—when growth stocks suddenly stop leading the market and value stocks pick up—all of a sudden financials, energy, these stocks are doing better. If you go back 12 months, you’d see that's when that transition started to happen. Long before anybody recognized it. Long before any advisors or strategists or economists called it. If you look back at the trailing 12-month numbers, energy is up almost 100% versus growth up just 20%. It's amazing how the markets are able to see these things months to a year ahead of time. This week on the tipping point: Covering your bases We've found that a lot of you that come to see us have done such a great job on the savings front. You've done a great job with your budget, you have minimal debt, you've learned to save, and you've built up a nice net worth. What we have found is that you don't always have all your bases covered. So, we thought we would talk about some of the problems you face, even if you're a diligent saver or if you have a sizable net worth at this point, that's getting you closer to that financial independence.  Number one on the list is having too much in cash!  When you're saving money, a lot of us think about saving money in cash. The problem with that is it's getting less than zero. If you think about your savings in terms of super savings, you want that money to work for you. Sitting in cash is like having a lot of employees that you pay, but none of them work. Check out the episode to hear what other bases you should be covering! This week’s hidden facts of finance This month the energy department released a study that says as much as 40% of US electricity could be produced by solar in 2035, 45% by 2050, but today solar only provides about 4% of overall energy. That's a gigantic leap, right? Renewables are the way of the future, but they're coming a lot later than everybody thinks. Today it costs more than a penny to make a penny. According to the US Mint, it costs them roughly 1.70 cents per coin. Warren Buffet, considered the world's most successful investor, made 99.6% of his 87.5 billion fortune after the age of 52. as much as 72 billion of his wealth came after he turned 65. He started investing at the tenure age of 11 and paid his first taxes at age of 13. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Welcome back! It's episode 55 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflationary pressure is mounting. We've literally had the 10-year treasury up above 1.5% as central banks around the world are starting to indicate that they're going to start to taper and potentially raise interest rates sometime next year. In addition to that, we've got oil prices surging around the world right now, a natural gas shortage in Europe, and costs are going up because oil literally runs everything. So what do you make of the current economic environment? Meanwhile, we still have fighting on Capitol Hill as they're looking to spend trillions and raise taxes. It's a tumultuous time but we're going to give you the game plan you need right now to succeed. On the Tipping Point today we'll talk about how your financial independence plan is like having a great flight plan to make sure you can create the most secure financial situation for yourself. Don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Where are the corrections happening? [1:27] Mutating economy [4:26] Where the economists always get it wrong [6:53] The Tipping Point [10:30] Being prepared for turbulence [15:40] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:12] A mutating economy bodes well for those in the ‘stuff’ making industry We talk about the fear of this virus mutating. Well, we mutate. The economy, the global economy, it all mutates. We've changed how we do things and the economies are booming as a result of mutating away from the way things used to be done. Now, there are some near-term problems like supply chain disruptions. But if you're making stuff right now, if you have stuff in your inventory, you can charge whatever you want for it. What a great place to be. Those in the stuff manufacturing business aren’t sitting at home twiddling their thumbs, they’re working 24/7 to get more stuff produced and manufactured so they can sell it! Meanwhile, all this has inflationary implications, but nothing like we had in the 70s’. We're going to have higher inflation, it will be a little stickier, but we will probably end up at 2.5-3%, nothing to be afraid of, but something you have got to hedge your portfolio for. This week on the tipping point: Financial flight plans Like anything in life, it's important to have a plan, especially when you're flying, you have to have a flight plan. Your flight plan will be dictated by what the weather's like, the winds, how many passengers you have, how much fuel you have to take. It's important before you take off to have a good idea of not only where you're going but how you intend to get there. That same principle applies to your investment portfolio. It's not about making the most money, it’s about getting to your destination as safely as possible.  The other thing about a flight plan is you're going to have turbulence along the way that comes out of the blue. That's what happens with the markets, like the pandemic, no one could have predicted it. It came out of the blue, the drop in the markets came out of nowhere. It's not how you react in the moment, it's about having that proactive plan ahead of time. You have to be prepared for turbulence in your portfolio. Most of you aren’t and you don’t even realize it. If the world falls apart tomorrow, you're not protected. That's why we always take your portfolio through that stress test.  Is your portfolio built and designed to get through that turbulence? This week’s hidden facts of finance The total value of US stocks is now over $51 trillion, a $16 trillion dollar rise from pre-pandemic values. To put that $16 trillion advance into perspective—it took over 200 years from the founding of the earliest US stock exchange in 1790 to the 2007-09 financial crisis for the stock market to create its first $16 trillion in value. Wow! So that's an amazing amount of money in the course of a very short period of time, during a pandemic and a global shutdown to boot! If there's any doubt as to where you should be investing your money, with a $16 trillion increase in just 18 months, sounds like the stock market is the place to be. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 54 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED finally admitted it! Inflation is not as transitory as they initially thought—as we've been telling on this podcast, week after week. Interest rates moved 20% last week and we're starting to see the bond market move...in the wrong direction! Supply chains around America are a mess right now! You can't hire enough truckers. You can't hire enough people to work at the ports. We're seeing a domino effect and huge delays on all products and services as they move slowly across the country. What does this mean for you? What does this mean for your portfolio? We're going to give you our view of exactly what's happening in the economy right now and what you need to be doing strategically. Money's moving out of tech stocks and into those old-school cyclical stocks that we love. In addition to that on the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your financial advisor. Are they really, really nice, but they don't give you good advice? We're going to tell you exactly how to handle that. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Supply chain problems causing trouble [1:32] Not just inflation on products [4:41] Shifting dynamics [7:49] The Tipping Point [10:54] Not having a full picture [13:02] Breaking things down so it’s understandable to you [15:41] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:37] What’s wreaking havoc on the economy but not the market? Companies can't find enough workers, even if the ports were open 24/7, there's not enough people to man them, there are ships sitting for weeks waiting to unload their cargo. When one part of the supply chain gets messed up, maybe a truck doesn't show up for a shipment on time, it just affects everything! It's just wreaking havoc on the entire economy right now. Inventory is running low, semiconductors are backlogged, steel and lumber are going up like crazy. People are building everywhere. Who knows what people will fill these homes with, maybe beach chairs and sleeping bags because you can't get any furniture or appliances.  With all of this going on, the market doesn't seem to care because here's the thing about the market... the market looks forward! All of this is priced in already. We are getting a little bit of corrective action, but that's primarily because the FED didn't say transitory last week, which means they are starting to believe—like we've been telling you—that inflation is going up. So interest rates are going up and hopefully, all of you listened because those bond funds are dropping like rocks! You have to get into fixed income, not bond funds.  This week on the tipping point: Nice advisors with bad service Do you have a nice advisor who isn’t doing such a nice job? People are hesitant to make a switch for a variety of reasons. It seems easier to stay with someone because you have already made a time investment there, or they have handled so-and-so’s finance for years so they must be doing something right, or you’ve already moved from one bad advisor to this new bad advisor and it just seems like they are all the same so why bother.  We are here to tell you there are good advisors!  Good advisors are going to break things down into a simple way for you to understand it. Everything we're doing here is not rocket science, if it feels like rocket science, you've got a problem. Not only should you be able to understand what's in your portfolio, you should also understand how it relates to you and the goals that you're trying to achieve. Don't go with an advisor where you get mystery investments. Check out the segment for more on what a good advisor looks like! This week’s hidden facts of finance There are 13 US corporate tax hikes on record going back to 1925, and in the ensuing 12 months, the S&P rose 9 times averaging 11.1%. On the personal income side, Congress has hiked the top bracket 14 times and the S&P rose in the next 12 months after 10 of them averaging a whopping 16.8%. Sounds like raising taxes is actually good for the market. Who would have thought?  One of the biggest fears that clients have right now is that a tax hike is going to have a negative impact on the market but based on these statistics it sounds like that's probably not going to be the reality. I think the bottom line is a bull market is going to be a bull market, regardless of short-term moves and taxes. As we've said, we know money's got to go somewhere, better be bullish than to be foolish! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It’s been a tumultuous week, with China Evergrande Group possibly going default on $300 BILLION of bonds. Is this going to be another Lehman event like the talking heads are saying? We also have the Delta variant rising around the world and impacting the decisions nations are making regarding their societies and economies… and in the U.S., the government wants to raise money by taxing you. There’s a lot going on and it has investors spooked. What should you do with your investments, if anything? And how should you handle the risks involved in a time like this? Don’t miss this episode, we’re gong to provide you our insights for handing the risks times like this bring. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A leveraged Chinese Real Estate Company is not going to be of much concern to us [1:25] Stay on the boat even in downturns could be ahead, here’s why...[6:20] The Tipping Point: Risk — How are you set up to handle risk? [9:05] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:40] Evergrande is huge in China but in the U.S. you don’t need to be concerned 100% of our clients never heard of this “Evergrande” outfit… that’s because we have no interest in ever getting involved in leveraged Chinese Real Estate companies. We’d be going from the Penthouse to the Basement if we did, and it’s just not what we do for our clients. The hype we’re seeing in the media is overblown and the correction that’s been forecast doesn’t appear to be happening as of this episode. Even if it did come about, corrections are almost always temporary. They are typically followed by a huge record high. Remember, it’s not rocket science, there are trillions of dollars out there driving the market higher. The real power is in having a diversified portfolio. This week on the tipping point: RISK and Risk Management One of the items we deal with day after day for our 2000 clients is risk. There are many types of risk to consider, including market risk. When markets go up and up and up… and honestly, that’s when you have the most amount of risk. But that’s not typically how people think about it. And on the converse, when the market is down is when you have the least amount of risk. So if everything in your portfolio is going up, that’s a bad sign. 1999 to 2000 is a great example, when the tech bubble was going up and up and up, and then the correction came hard. It took people 15 years to break even after that, so keep clear on your diversification objectives.  Another huge risk to consider is interest rate risk. It hasn’t been a huge risk lately because interest rates have been low, and when interest rates go up, bond funds go down. Even though bonds are touted as the most stable part of your portfolio, they can fluctuate in a time like this as much as 60%. That’s not stable at all. Listen to hear about the risk inflation and lifetime expectancy bring into the mix and more!  This week’s hidden facts of finance The American public debt is ¼ larger than the economy and it’s grown substantially. Fed assets have grown 11-fold as well. Corrections happen once every 17 months typically, but the only way to win is to be in. Don’t wait for the correction. AMC Theaters attendance topped pre-pandemic numbers for the corresponding days in 2019. Definitely, the economy is reopening and it’s just getting started. Listen to hear more of the hidden facts of finance that you commonly don’t hear and oftentimes, will shock you. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for On Spotifya complimentary financial review from the Paynes See the hype about the On SpotifyEvergrande default Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris On Spotifyhttp://PayneCM.com  Follow on On SpotifyTwitter Follow on On SpotifyFacebook Follow on On SpotifyLinkedIn Subscribe on On SpotifyYouTube Follow on On SpotifyInstagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On SpotifyOn Apple Podcasts, On On SpotifyGoogle Podcasts, On Spotify

Welcome back for episode 52 of Payne Points of Wealth. That’s one full year of musings from the Payne boys! We’re glad you’ve stuck around! Well, Labor Day is over and we are officially in the fall season! Cryptocurrency is apparently one of the primary currencies in El Salvador now. The world is getting crazy as always. We're starting to see a little bit of a slowdown in the economy. If you looked at the employment numbers that came out (while we're recording this), they came in weaker than expected. There's a lot of economists, a lot of strategists right now that believe we're going to an economic slowdown. We're going to give you the truth today. We're going to tell you what's really going on with the economy, and how to invest your money. On the tipping point today, we're going to play a little bit of financial jeopardy. We're going to talk about some financial terms you need to understand if you're going to get on your path to financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Does the market have to go down just because it’s September? [2:07] Big bubbles [5:20] The Tipping Point [9:03] What’s known for high fees, lack of liquidity, and misleading promises? [9:43] What requires an advisor to put a client's best interests first? [11:34] What phenomenon is eminent but no denying that it will be back eventually? [13:20] What forces retirees to drain their retirement accounts [15:38] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:56] The most powerful force of monetary and fiscal policy we've ever seen There's been $32 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus created since the pandemic started. $32 trillion! All the global GDP in the world, every year, is something like $93 trillion. Think about how supercharged the entire global economy is right now. It's basically on steroids. It's almost laughable that any economists or strategists would think we're going to get some sort of real sell-off because you're fighting the most powerful force of monetary and fiscal policy we've ever seen. Literally ever! That's why we're going to have big bubbles in certain areas of the economy. We have big bubbles going on right now. You just don't know when they're going to burst. This week on the tipping point: Financial Jeopardy In this episode, we play our own little game of Financial Jeopardy and talk about some critical financial terms that all our listeners really need to understand. In the spirit of Jeopardy, we're going to give you the answer and you're going to follow up with the question. Check out the episode to see if you got it right and to hear what the Payne men have to say about it. #1 It's known by many for its high fees, lack of liquidity, and misleading promises. This financial product gives the financial services world a bad name.  #2 This requires a financial advisor to put his client's best interests before his/her own. Unfortunately, not all financial professionals are governed by it. #3 This financial phenomenon is thought by some to the eminent and by others to be far off in the distance, but there's no denying that it will be back eventually. This week’s hidden facts of finance As of early August, global equity funds have seen 605 billion of inflows year to date. Now to put that in perspective, global equity funds have seen 727 billion of cumulated inflows over the last 25 years. Therefore in 2021 alone, there have been 40% higher inflows than the last 25 years combined. That's insane. If that's not a melt-up, I don't know what is. The US population increased 0.4% in 2020 to 329 million Americans marking the slowest growth rate since 1901. A falling birth rate and an aging population could portend major implications for our economy long term. You've got an aging population then fewer people going into the workforce means fewer taxes and more people for the government to have to support. Maybe people should probably start having more kids. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

This is episode 51 of Payne Points of Wealth. You can't stop this market. We can't stop this market. The market is literally at all-time record highs every single day. We've got some news from the FED signaling that they're not going to raise interest rates anytime soon. A very bullish time which means the world's going to stay washed in cash. The Delta variant of the coronavirus seems to be slowing down a little bit, as we're recording this. Giving us some light at the end of the tunnel with what's going on with the economy. We're going to talk about what we see, what's going on, and where you should invest your money. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about literally every age of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60. What you need to be thinking about at every stage of the journey to make sure you're going to be financially independent. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Record highs & a re-rotation [1:20] Pop quiz! What is the best performing asset class over a 100 year period? [3:31] The market isn’t in the now [5:54] The Tipping Point [11:11] When you’re in your 20’s [11:45] When you’re in your 30’s [13:58] When you’re in your 40’s [15:56] When you’re in your 50’s and beyond [17:41] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:18] This week on the tipping point: Investing over a lifetime Financial planning is a journey, not a destination. Here at Payne Capital Management, we've found that each age represents an important landmark as it relates to your financial independence. What should you be thinking about at those different stages of your financial journey? Here’s a quick look, but listen to the episode for a full breakdown! Your twenties are the hardest time to invest because you're trying to buy big things like a car or a house, and you're just starting out in your career. But, it's the best time to get into the habit of automating your savings. Small investments in your 20s will pay off BIGTIME down the road. In your 30s you typically start to create a little more wealth. You're a little further along in your career, money starts to get bigger, and the decisions you have to make get a bit more serious. You’ll want to have a plan not just for your creation of wealth, but also for the preservation of wealth. You should also create an estate plan, you want to have a will when you're in your 30s.  When you get into your 40s, the stakes only get higher. This is when you should start thinking about streamlining your finances. You may have a couple of 401k plans from different employers. Perhaps an advisor who's giving you advice on your IRAs, maybe a brokerage account with somebody else. Consolidating all those finances and getting a streamlined game plan is the key when you get into your 40s.  Your 50's are what we call the financial red zone. It's a time where you're able to maximize your contributions. Sometimes you can't do it when you're younger, so in your 50's, you want to make sure that you catch up with everything and that you're prepared for the day where you're not going to have that paycheck coming in. In your 60's you're retired or getting close. Your 401k or retirement plan is likely a huge part of your net worth. The nice thing is if you're 59-1/2, for a lot of plans, you can do an in-service distribution. You can roll the money out of the plan with no tax, put it into an individual retirement account for yourself, and invest in a more customized way. You'll also want to start looking into things like Roth conversions because at age 72 you have to start taking money out of those pre-tax accounts. This week’s hidden facts of finance If the US taxes all Americans at 100% there will still be an $8 trillion federal budget deficit. I think our deficit is a problem. What an inconvenient truth! If they confiscate all the billionaires' money today, we won't even meet the current spending proposals. That's very unfortunate when you run out of billionaires. If the billionaires don't have any money to pay the taxes, guess who they'll be coming for? Taxes are going higher. So do your tax planning this year. Don't wait.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 50 of Payne Points of Wealth, hard to believe we're 50 episodes in and we've been doing this podcast for a year. We thank you for your support. As always, there is a lot going on right now in the economy and the stock market. We have the Delta variants still running rampant around the world. Is it going to slow the economy down is the big question on the investor's mind? As we're recording this right now, the government's looking to pass trillions of dollars. What impact is that going to have on the economy? What impact does that have on you and how do you position yourself to win right now as the market continues to go higher? We're going to break it down for you. We have a special guest on the tipping point, Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations. She’s also the podcast host of Makers of the USA. She talks with business owners all across the country. She's going to give us the pulse on that so we can get a better idea of what's going on in the economy. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Never trust the consensus [1:30] Are we coming into a melt-up? [4:18] Which market are they talking about? [6:12] The only place there is no opportunity [8:35] The Tipping Point [10:52] What is a maker? [12:42] When unemployment benefits end will we see more job applicants? [15:24] Will small businesses keep struggling, retire, or sell out to large corps? [19:22] Hidden Facts of Finance [24:24] Never trust what every investor believes in unison In a year where volatility is basically non-existent. The market was actually down last week. Like 1%, if we can even call that down at all. That just seems to be the theme, there's no sell-off. One thing we've talked about a lot on this podcast is never trust the consensus. Never trust what every strategist and every investor believes in unison. I hear it over and over again that we're in the weakest part of the year, until Halloween, and that the market's probably going to sell 10-15%, the market needs to have a correction. When everybody's looking for the same thing, we know it doesn't happen and this market just won't let you in. There's a lot of people in cash sweating it out right now. This week on the tipping point: The pulse of America Our guest Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations is also the host of a really cool podcast, Makers of the USA. Basically, Kristan goes out and talks to a lot of business owners. American-made, niche type of companies. She explains that her definition of a maker is a broad term, you have your woodworkers, metal workers, folks that make products but she also considers a maker to be a musician, photographer, or videographer. The Payne point that has been such a challenge amongst these makers and their mom and pop shops is they have to utilize their personal assets or personal funds to stay afloat. And like many businesses they are having a hard time with the scarcity of materials and finding workers. Unlike big companies in this community, they find it scary to increase their product prices because they're afraid of losing customers. They don't want to miss out on the customers they already have because some sales are better than no sales. Check out the episode for the full scoop from Kristan Vermeulen! This week’s hidden facts of finance In June, the median home price was a record $363,000. Up 23% year over year. Better than the S&P 500! Unbelievable, with all this money a wash around the world, everything's being bid up, whether it's real estate, stocks, businesses, everything but gold actually. But it isn't better than the S&P because the S&P pays a dividend. Last I checked, every month I'm paying real estate taxes. I'm paying utility bills. A home's great, but it's a place to live. As an investment, I'll take the S&P 500 any day of the week. Resources & People Mentioned Kristan Vermeulen Knotical Public Relations and host of Makers of the USA Nick Rossi and his episode on Makers of the USA See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 49 of Payne Points of Wealth and the world is in flux. We've got the Delta variant of the Coronavirus raging, which is causing more lockdowns and disruptions in the economy. The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan, adding geopolitical risk to the global economy. In addition to that, we've got infighting on Capitol Hill. What else is new? They're looking to spend trillions of dollars. Are our taxes going to go through the roof? Is inflation just going to run wild? We're going to address that today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about financial disasters with your financial plan. What mistakes you don't want to make, that you need to avoid at all costs. Things we've seen over and over again that you need to avoid. We're going to break it down. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What our podcast & the market have in common [1:15] If everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity [4:34] The French market is kicking the NASDAQ’s butt! [7:39] The Tipping Point [10:08] Is your 401k run by a fiduciary? [12:13] Keeping your risk in check with a balanced portfolio [15:17] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:48] Where to place your concerns The market always climbs a wall of worry. There's always gotta be a headwind because if everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity. COVID of course is a risk right now, but we've already seen that movie, the market doesn't drop on the same news twice.  Meanwhile, you've got this infrastructure bill, which has gone from 3.5 trillion dollars down to a half-trillion dollars of new spending spread over 10 years. That's not even going to move the meter a little bit on the market, but we do have inflation. Inflation is something we should all be concerned about. This week on the tipping point: Financial disasters We’re blowing the whistle on the biggest scandal in the history of the financial market since the 1900s, the mutual fund industry. We all know from every study that's been done that no money manager can outperform their underlying index. So what do they do? They take money managers and sell mutual funds and they churn the account every year, charging you more, giving you a lower return, and having you pay more taxes. If that's not a scandal, I don't know what is. The other big issue we see right now, being in a big booming bull market is a lot of times the risk in your portfolio becomes outsized and you don't even know it. Because the market has gone up by 100% since last March when you were 50 or 60% in the market, but now you're 80, 90% in the market because there’s been so much growth. You've got to keep that risk in check. At some point, we will get a huge market sell-off or a crash and if you're not allocated correctly ahead of time, you're out of luck. Check on it right now, while things are going well, that's the time you have to make those decisions. This week’s hidden facts of finance In the 70s, the inflation of that decade was largely a result of the explosion in energy prices. That, to a major extent, reflected oil-producing countries refusing to be paid in the ever appreciating US dollar. Could it happen again? A lot of bad things happened in the seventies like bell-bottoms and leisure suits and Bob's got pictures to prove it, but there was definitely inflation. In fact, there was hyperinflation, but a lot of it had to do with lack of productivity growth. So it wasn't just the oil companies not producing enough oil. There were a lot of other things going on that led to hyperinflation, high-interest rates, and basically the biggest bull market in bonds. You may be hearing a lot of arguments that we're going into the 70s again with hyperinflation. We are going to see inflation but productivity, which is a big component of what's happening right now, is going through the roof. This is not like the 70s, that's a positive that says this economy is a lot different and a lot better than it was in the 1970s.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up it's episode 48 pain points of wealth. And as summer's rolling along here so is the economic data. We see unemployment down to 5.4% and the economy isn’t even fully reopened yet. It's a phenomenal number! We have the unemployment benefits dropping off in September, what's that going to mean for company profits and for the economy? And inflation, inflation numbers, still looking strong, no matter what the government tells you. We're going to talk about all that today. We’re also talking about the economic data, what you can expect from earnings this year, and what you should be doing with your money! On the tipping point, where we pinpoint the Payne point having the biggest impact on your wealth, we're going to give you our rules for investing. Rules that you can apply to your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence! Check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... More jobs than workers to fill them! [1:15] Bullishness is cooled off and a bull market doesn’t let you in [3:46] Higher stakes [6:28] The Tipping Point [9:08] The age old, excuse why we don't want to diversify [14:20] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42] Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. We recently had a client that had quite a bit of cash accumulated but didn't want us to invest it because they'd like to have some money on the sidelines in case this market pulls back. We had to explain that they're getting less than a 1% return in the money market. That they have no idea what's going to happen in the future. What if it never happens? Were they just going to let it sit on the sidelines forever?  That's the sentiment of not only our clients but a lot of the investing public. In a big booming bull market, the biggest problem is that it doesn't let you in. There are so many professional money managers, high net worth investors, and under-invested bears and bulls who are sitting on the sidelines waiting to get the dip that came last March. They're thinking they’re going to buy stocks when they're cheap because they missed the opportunity to get in when they should have.  That's why you always have to have a strategy. Always be fully invested. Always be invested based on your goals because the market doesn't accommodate. Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. And if you're not in, you are missing out! This week on the tipping point When it comes to the finances of the families we advise, we have some definitive rules that we apply to every financial plan that we work on. Let’s discuss one of the top principles that listeners can apply to their own financial planning and investing. That being, when it comes to investing, there's no reward without risk but if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. That's why we have bubbles. People would rather invest in something that's bubblicious that sounds so good, so sexy, so hot, how could you lose? There's tremendous risk in SPACs, crypto, and hedge funds! Anything that can go up big can go down big. Crypto is a great example of that. We've seen a wild roller coaster ride in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, it was only a few years ago in 2017 when it went down 82%. And you’d be foolish to think that any asset class that can go up hundreds of percent, can't go down 80, 90% as well and that it can't happen several times. The opposite is also true in types of investments where they guarantee a certain return. But the reality is that that return may not keep up with inflation. So you sacrifice longer-term returns for “safety”. This week’s hidden facts of finance With nearly 3/4 of US workers fully vaccinated, many companies are trying to get workers back in person. However, based on a recent survey, about 40% of employees say they'll resign if they have to go back into the office five days a week. I really find it surprising that companies are pushing for people to be back in the office because productivity has gone through the roof. That's a hidden fact of finance that clients I've shared that with are surprised to hear, that productivity actually went up. But think about it. You're not sitting in traffic waiting to get to the office. You're not in the airport, flying out to see a client. Eventually, we're going to do more face-to-face meetings, but I think we have this hybrid workspace going on forever. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 47 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's rinse, wash, repeat as earnings just keep coming in better and better as of this recording. Tech companies are coming out with earnings this week, and they're just blowing the doors off estimates. No surprises there. Meanwhile, this new variant of the COVID virus is running rampant around the globe. Is that going to slow economic growth? Is that going to be a problem for the stock market? And Bitcoin is having a revival. Is Bitcoin the currency of the future? Maybe it is now. We're going to break it all down for you. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about mindless diversification. What mindless ways do you diversify your money that is slowing progress to your goals? We're going to tell you exactly how to diversify your money. We've got a great show for you, check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A bull market waits for no one [1:17] Financial engineering [3:36] Negativity about good news [5:27] Supply & demand [8:31] The Tipping Point [10:55] You don’t want an all or none strategy [13:08] Overlap, a risk hot spot [16:57] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:43] What investing is NOT... You may think investing is about making money or outperforming. It's not. It's about getting that return on investment that you need to achieve to get to your goals. That's why we created the A to B approach and it's at point A where you build that foundation of passive income streams that you have to incorporate into your plan. Because you have to make the right decisions. You can make some really bad decisions on the most important income streams of your life, but do you want to? This week on the tipping point: Mindless Diversification One of the most critical aspects of anyone's financial plan is income. Not only do you have to have an income plan, but is your income diversified? As we know from the 2000 or so families that we manage at our firm mindless diversification is mindless. Not only is it mindless but when you have mindless diversification, it's a minefield. You may think you have a lot of different investments and that you actually have true diversification. However, as we know Wall Street loves to sell you what's working the best, in many different forms. You may own a growth fund over here and it has a different name on it than the other growth fund you own over there, but they are all the same. Or owning something like cryptocurrency and growth stocks, a lot of times, because they're working at the same time when the music stops, they're probably all going to stop working at the same time as well. And that's not true diversification. This week’s hidden facts of finance The housing market's fundamentals are strong from the explosion in births around 33 years ago, consumers born then are entering their peak years for starting families and buying homes. The current situation is nothing like the bubble of the 2000s when one person was buying four houses as speculation. There's a generation that's bigger and more impactful than the boomers. They're no longer on the couch in their parents' basement. They're buying homes. They're making big money.  One out of every three new clients that come through our door is a millennial. It's an ongoing bull market with the biggest generation, since Bob's favorite, the baby boomers. It also stands in complete contrast to all the videos out there talking about a big real estate crash coming. Based on that supply-demand demographics right now, we're probably not going to see some sort of housing crash. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 46 of Payne Points of Wealth and it was a crazy week on the street of dreams. We had a mini sell-off or mini correction on Monday as markets looked like they were ready to crash, but markets were marching higher by Tuesday. Earning seasons got off to an awesome start! Company’s earnings are blowing away estimates, Economic data keeps coming in stronger and stronger. Is the party going to continue? What's going to happen between now and the end of the year? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly what's going on right now. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial catastrophes. What could derail your entire financial plan? What do you need to be aware of to avoid any sort of disaster in your financial life? We're going to give you our blueprint for that. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Delta variant headlines driving the market [3:22] Expect unexpected booms [5:48] Everything is at a peak. Are stocks at a peak too? [7:47] The Tipping Point [11:03] Losing a spouse and access to your finances [11:59] Taking more risk than necessary [16:46] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:36] Valleys in the mountains Last time we recorded this podcast the market was at all-time record high. Here we are a week later recording the podcast and the market is at an all-time record high. What correction are you talking about?  It happened so quickly. We saw some sectors sell-off like 5%, energy was down big on Monday and you just thought, okay, here it comes. We're going to get that proverbial market correction, where markets are going to sell off between 10 and 15%. Gird your loins, as someone we know used to say, but it just didn't happen. The next day all of a sudden the market turned and it hasn't looked back.  A real-world example of this is a client called on Thursday in an absolute panic because they checked their account on Monday. How come the market's crashed? We're losing all of our money. Is this the end? And I said, did you look at your account today? They said, no, so I said look at it today and tell me what you see. They went and looked, whew, everything's back to normal. I said one cold day doesn't make a winter. This week on the tipping point: Financial catastrophes Not being involved in your finances can be a catastrophe. It seems like in every single relationship with two spouses involved, there's always one extremely interested spouse, the one who pays attention, and stays on top of everything. Then there's the spouse who isn’t, the one that doesn't care or doesn’t know. And that's a scary thing. We see this a lot. Suddenly, one spouse passes away, and the other spouse is grieving because they just lost the person they love more than anyone else in the world, and they also have to get on top of this financial mess. What we've found is there's no excuse, with all the technology we have, not to get financially organized. One of the things we use here at Payne Capital Management is our 360 Portal, which is an electronic catchall for all things financial. It's got a document storage vault. It goes so far as to allow you to add someone onto that account so they know where everything is if something were to happen to you. This week’s hidden facts of finance Domestic production of semiconductors has been declining for decades today. Only 12% of semiconductors are manufactured here in the good old USA. Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company alone makes up 56% of market share in certain global markets for advanced technologies. This is not the only thing that gets manufactured overseas. And that's why it's so important to not just be invested in the US but to also be invested overseas, especially in those emerging markets. The federal deficit is now 1.3 times the size of the GDP here in the US. That's the highest it's been since the end of World War II. Plus the US has about $20.5 trillion worth of accumulated debt. If rates rise by one percentage point, that's another $285 billion of interest expense for the US government annually. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 45 of Payne Points of Wealth. As I'm recording this right now, inflation numbers are through the roof! We’ve been warning you about it. Everyone's saying inflation has been transitory, but apparently not. Inflation numbers came in way higher than expected. We're in the midst of earning season. Companies are crushing their earnings right now. So that coupled with inflation, what does it mean for you? What does it mean for your portfolio? What's our view of the economy? We're going to break it down for you today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about your financial independence roadmap. How do you map out financial independence? We're going to give you our viewpoint—having been doing this for a collective 75 years—on how to get yourself in a position to be financially free. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The BIG news this week [1:18] Will earnings call surprises be about labor costs and shortages? [4:37] Is the market going to crash? [7:32] The Tipping Point [9:36] Is making money a goal? [10:32] Risk is the key, only take the risk that you need [13:21] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:44] What we expect to hear from earnings calls over the next couple of weeks We're in earnings season. It's no secret earnings are going to be absolutely phenomenal. Earnings are going to blow the doors off. We expect that to happen and of course, the markets are forward-looking so it's not exactly a surprise. What the surprises are going to be— when you hear these earnings calls over the course of the next couple of weeks— is how much are their labor costs are going up? How much of the raw material costs go up and how much of those costs are going to pass on to you and me, the consumer, I'm going to guess a lot of it is going to get passed on to us. And that is simply inflationary. This week on the tipping point: Preparing more effectively and minimize the hazards on your way to becoming financially independent Over the years we have found that becoming financially independent is a journey, not the destination. So join us in this episode to hear us discuss how to prepare more effectively and minimize the hazards along the way to becoming financially independent.  Financial planning is what it's about investing with the end in mind. You would think this is only for new investors or somebody who's got a little bit of money, but it applies to everybody.  When someone comes in with money and asks "How do I invest it?" We ask "What are your goals?" But “I want to make money” is not a goal. At the end of the day, what does that mean? There's nothing tangible about it. When you invest your money without any sort of purpose to it, it's hard to stick to a strategy. Why do you need your money to grow? So that you can retire or be financially independent?  Having enough money so that you don't have to work again (unless you want to) is definitely a goal to shoot for! Check out the episode for more! This week’s hidden facts of finance A randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money based on statistical evidence. In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy. That's why over the last 10 years, 85% of all large-cap fund managers have underperformed their underlying index and these are supposed to be the pros on Wall Street. I can't imagine that an individual investor would be all that successful trying to pick stocks if the fund managers can't even do it. All the odds and probabilities are against you yet we love to pick individual stocks. Why not just own an index and win? Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 44 of Payne Points of Wealth and we saw a market correction this past week or a little bit of a sell-off, but the major indices now sit at all-time highs again as I'm recording this. But the question is out there... is the market topping out? Are we starting to see a peak? Is the market ready to crash? Is this sugar high, those trillions of dollars, that the government's created finally coming to an end? We're going to break it down for you and give you our view of the rest of the year when it comes to the economy and the stock market. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about a covered call strategy. You may have heard about this. Is this a strategy you should be thinking about with your portfolio to build wealth? We're going to break down what a covered call strategy is and our thoughts on it. Is it appropriate, not appropriate? We’re going to tell you about our new cryptocurrency BobCoin! You need BobCoin in your portfolio and we're going to tell you why! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The correction… if you blinked you missed it [1:34] The Market is smarter than Wall Street [3:24] The biggest problem with DIY investors [6:14] Getting into the global market [8:13] The Tipping Point [12:01] BobCoin [16:23] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42] Venturing outside of the US market could pay big With treasury yields at 1.3%, it makes dividend yields — which are over 2% for a lot of US stocks — very attractive. But there are other places to be than in the US. It looks pretty good around the world right now. Biden came out and said he's going after big tech. We're seeing all these antitrust suits against big tech. Not to mention the valuation or how high the prices are on a lot of these big tech stocks and if you own the S&P 500, that's 22% in five companies, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. That's not diversification and the headwinds are there. They're real.  The US market isn't the only game in town! Europe looks freaking awesome right now. I never thought I would say that. But when you start looking at vaccination rates going up, dividend yields, cheaper stocks, there are so many reasons why you need to diversify your money right now. To make that a little bit more real, when you say cheaper, the S&P 500 trades at twenty and a half times its forward earnings right now. Europe on the other hand only trades at sixteen and a half times its forward earnings. I would say that's a huge discount. Buy low, sell high, that's the name of the game. This week on the tipping point: Covered Call Strategy This week on the tipping point we are discussing a listener question.  “I listen to your podcast every week and appreciate the way your team keeps me grounded. I was wondering what your thoughts are on a covered call strategy. I generally stay away from Reddit but my son sent this to me and I wonder why I never hear professional investors talk about such strategies. I'd really appreciate your thoughts on this.” The strategy in question is a covered call and we used to use them.  There are two components to a covered call strategy. You buy shares of any stock that's publicly traded. The other way to invest in that same stock is called an option. An option is a very speculative way to invest because it has a finite period of time to where it exists. So if you think about casino gambling, the stock is the house is the casino and the option is the better.  You have this contract and you're giving someone the right to buy your stock at a certain price — ideally, for more than you bought it — and they pay you a premium. Not only do you get the dividend on the stock, but you're getting this premium on top of that. Sounds sexy, right? You're getting all this income on your stock, it's a no-brainer. Why wouldn't everybody do this?  Most people who buy call options, lose all their money. Of course, that is until they don't. When they don't lose money, it means the market made a gigantic move and that's the problem with the strategy when the market moves big, like it had this last year, you end up having to sell out of the market and you don't get all of the return you deserve. Listen to the episode for the full story on this strategy.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The S&P 500 averages a whopping 21.8% in a newly elected Democrats inaugural year. If the past few weeks are any indication it's playing out perfectly again this year. Believe it or not the first year in a presidential cycle under a Democratic presidency, typically has at least a 20% return. You wouldn't think that because of what the administration has been proposing, higher taxes, more estate taxes, reducing wealth, and you'd think that would be counterintuitive to investing in the stock market. It turns out it's not the case. If that's the case, we have another 10% plus to go. Again, market melt-up. It's coming. You heard it here first! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 43 of Payne Points of Wealth and the major indices continue to March higher. Everything is focused on the fed right now. Are they going to raise interest rates? Are they going to do it next year? The year after? Is the economy getting too hot? Is it going to slow down? Are we just going to get one big burst of demand from people with their stimulus checks before everything slows down and the market crashes? Well, that's what's on investor's minds today. We're going to address all those issues. We're going to give you our playbook this week for how you have to think about the markets and the economy. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about all the biggest concerns our clients at Payne capital management have right now when it comes to their portfolio and financial plan so that you can address the same issues in yours. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The market is partying like it’s 1999 and the Fed is trying to take the punch bowl! [1:16] Let’s be real… what we know [3:25] Value stocks are where the money is right now [6:54] The Tipping Point [11:16] Should you be doing anything to lower your taxes? [16:40] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:26] Who cares if the Fed raises interest rates in two years! It doesn't matter what Jay Powell says or when they're going to raise interest rates, the market's going to determine it way before they do. And let's be real here, we have outrageously cheap money. We've got trillions of dollars that consumers are sitting on and we know consumers drive the US economy. It's all about spending money. We know wages are going up. We've got a labor shortage. We've been talking about this week after week. And at the end of the day, if you're an investor, it's all about earnings going up. And earnings continue to come in better and better. Companies are going to make a lot of money and prices are going up. What else do we need to know? It doesn't matter if the Fed's going to raise interest rates in two years. Who cares? It's not news. This week on the tipping point: Pressing financial issues people are facing One question we are getting from clients right now is, is my portfolio in a good position for inflation? What are we going to do if inflation goes to where it was back in the 1970s? It’s an issue that should be on everybody's mind. It’s been on Bob's mind since the day he started back in 1975. Inflation is real, even though it's hidden, it's insidious, it's hideous, but it's always there. It's constant. We're hearing all about what's going to happen with this coming inflation, but what about the inflation that's already here? We run financial plans for our clients every day and we do these wealth projections. We're showing that even at 2% inflation, the cost of living is going to double every 20 years and a lot of you aren't prepared for that.  The other question we're getting is, should we be doing anything to lower our taxes? How are we going to pay for all this stimulus and government spending? You don't need to be an economist to figure out that taxes are probably going up. Someone's going to pay for these trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects and all of the benefits that we've been giving out over the course of the last year. So the question is, how do you prepare for higher taxes? Give unto Caesar that of which is Caesar's, but don't give him any of yours. In other words, don't pay more taxes than you have to and there's a lot of things in your portfolio that you can do to reduce the amount of taxes you're paying. Things like owning exchange-traded funds or municipal bonds, for example. Check out the episode for more! This week’s hidden facts of finance In a recent research paper, under-performance at public retirement plans was mainly attributed to overpaying for alternative asset managers who could be replaced by cheap index funds, saving something like $70 billion a year. Here's a little hidden fact of finance... the markets are a zero-sum game so if somebody's winning, that means somebody's losing. Does it surprise you that public retirement plans are on the losing end? No shock here.  We all get offered all these alternative and brokerage products, hoping that we can gain the market. If I'm a $30 billion pension plan who has access to the best managers and they can't gain the market, what chance do you and I have? Low-cost indexes or the name of the game! I wish I could let every public retirement plan know my favorite Bob-ism and that's “Wall Street is full of ordinary people promising to give you extraordinary results.” Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 42 of Payne Points of Wealth and the Fed has come out and admitted that inflation might not be transitory. Just like we've been telling you week after week. They're looking to maybe raise interest rates sooner than expected. No kidding! However, in other news, the bond market interest rates actually went down. So what's the deal? Is inflation transitory? Is inflation here to stay? Are interest rates going higher, lower? We're going to break it down for you today on the show. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about pain points that you have when it comes to your finances. What's stopping you right now from getting on your path to financial independence. We're going to talk about the psychology of money and some of the things that you need to be dealing with when it comes to your finances to get over those mental hurdles. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Is this a breather for commodity prices and inflation or a new trend? [1:24] Thinking about the big picture [4:23] You heard it here first! [7:10] The Tipping Point [10:41] The fear of running out of money [11:14] Anxiety about taxes [15:03] Fearing an impending market crash [17:08] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:14] A breather for commodity prices and inflation or a trend? CPI, consumer price index, which is the measure of inflation was up 5% year over year in May. That's a huge number. We haven't seen inflation like that in literally decades. Prices are going up everywhere. As we were recording this oil was at $73 a barrel. Inflation's everywhere.  Meanwhile, lumber has dropped 45% since May. Copper futures are down now 12% from their record high and all of a sudden these commodity prices, which have been so strong are starting to weaken. So maybe it is transitory.  When it comes to markets, one of the dynamics that you have is that nothing goes in a straight line. Yes, commodity prices have come down but look at copper, for instance, it's still up 50% from a year ago, even though it's come down in the last couple of weeks. I mean, commodity prices are still way higher than they were. When you're thinking about your investment portfolio specifically, it's not about winning the battle. It's about winning the war. And the question is, is this just a breather for commodity prices and inflation? Or is this a new trend?  This week on the tipping point: Pain points holding you back from financial independence Everyone has a specific pain point. Something that’s holding you back when it comes to getting to that place of financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of those bigger pain points that we experience and how to get over them so we can ditch the anxiety when it comes to our money.  In the episode, we talk about the pains of taxes and market crashes but one of the biggest fears clients seem to have is running out of money. Especially when they are in the transitional phase of having an income to tapping into their wealth in the distribution years. Healthy fear is a good motivator but going overboard can suck the fun out of your life in the here and now. Check out the episode for tips on managing this balance! This week’s hidden facts of finance Despite a jump in taxes during World War II, total disposable personal income in 1944 was double what it was in 1940. America's gross domestic product tripled from 1940 to 1950 in dollar terms. The economy just boomed after the war. Just because taxes are going up doesn't mean that the economy is going to suffer or your personal income is going to suffer? So don't be afraid of taxes. You have to make money for the taxman to take money! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 41 Payne Points of Wealth. As always, a lot is going on right now. We're starting to see inflationary pressures cool off a little bit. Tech stocks on the move again. Is it time to adjust your portfolio? Is inflation really transitory? The Paynes are going to break down the three major forces that are driving everything economically right now, everything in your portfolio that you need to know about. And on the tipping point today, we're going to talk about doing research. There's a lot of good ways and bad ways you can educate yourself with all the information out there. We're going to show you how to dissect the information, pick out good information versus bad financial information. So you can make some better decisions. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Force #1: Labor shortage & irreversible wage increases [1:28] Force #2: The weaker dollar [4:28] Force #3: Supply chain pressure [8:00] The Tipping Point [12:07] Bad information from talking heads on tv [12:36] The most dangerous thing to your personal and financial health [15:01] A good investment strategy allows you to ignore the noise [18:38] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:08] A thank you from the Paynes [26:01] Labor inflation and weak dollars Business owners are complaining about things becoming more expensive and that they can't get anybody to work. And that people that are coming to work are demanding higher pay. That's the big underpinning issue here when you talk about inflationary pressure. Lumber costs are coming down now, but they just tripled, it's not going to triple again. The longer-term stickler when it comes to inflation is labor costs. When you have to pay your employees more, you can't just say, you know what, I know I gave you a raise, but now I'm going to lower your income. It's very hard to reverse that trend. The king dollar seems to have fallen off the throne. It's been going down now for almost 12 months. The dollar has been weak since last March when all the stimulus started. That's how it works, right? If the government keeps printing more money, it's called dilution. It's a simple concept where the more dollars you print, the less valuable they are. Last time I looked the government's looking to print another $6 trillion or so over the course of the next year. So that's very bad for the dollar.  The third leg of this stool is supply chain pressure. Check out the episode to hear more about that! This week on the tipping point: Good and bad ways to educate yourself about finances We all want to feel informed about our options when it comes to making decisions about our finances. So we thought we could discuss some of the good and bad ways we try to educate ourselves when it comes to our finances and the best way that we can inform ourselves to make sure we're always making the best decisions. Unfortunately, most of the bad financial information that our clients talk about comes from watching tv and the internet. A good investment strategy— like the ones we build— is built so that you can ignore all the noise. You have to build a strategy that drowns out all the current opinions because good investing is not about what's happened currently. It's what's going to transpire over the next couple of decades.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The total number of internet connections globally will increase from 0.76 billion today to 3.6 billion by 2025. Hyper-connectivity impacts other unstoppable trends, including the rise of Asia. Many millions of people in Asia will gain internet access for the first time transforming their consumer behavior. You've got one of the largest increasing populations in the world getting connected to the best shopping wall in the world. I think being an investment in emerging markets is going to help in the future here guys. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Welcome to episode 40 of Payne Points of Wealth! Major indices aren't going anywhere fast. If you look at the Dow and the S&P we're basically in the same place now as the last two months. The NASDAQ—big tech— has been in the same place since mid-January. When you start looking under the surface cryptocurrencies are getting rocked right now. That inflationary pressure we've been talking about, we're still seeing it in commodity prices. As we're recording this oil is going through the roof! This big rotation continues to happen. We're going to talk about strategically what you need to be doing and what to be thinking about with your portfolio. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those shiny objects in the financial world. The financial services industry loves to sell you things that you don't need. We're going to point them out and show you how to avoid all those shiny objects at all costs.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The greatest restructurer of all [1:50] Two common mistakes investors are making [5:41] Summer trends to consider [9:08] The Tipping Point [10:35] Cherry-picked past promising a perfect future [15:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:27] You haven’t missed the boat yet! A big trend to think about this summer is travel is definitely happening! Everyone I've talked to is going on a trip this summer. Either they're flying, going to be in their car, on their boats, everyone is moving around. Do you realize the amount of oil that's going to be used! And as we're recording this oil is at another recent high. All these trends are just going to continue to ramp up. Like they're not going to slow down. The most obvious thing happening in plain sight right now is the fact that all these cyclical stocks, these more boring companies that didn't do as well the last 10 years, are going to be up. This is going to last a long time so you've got to readjust your portfolio, you haven't missed the boat, yet.  This week on the tipping point: Shiny things to avoid Given a collection of around 75 years of experience and a high volume of portfolio reviews each month we’ve seen every strategy under the sun! So let’s talk about these offers or what we call shiny objects that a lot of financial services firms like to pitch and sell you. Because we do the analysis and we break these products down all the time we see a lot of buyer beware products. A lot of things that Wall Street is trying to sell you right now shockingly are not in your best interest. In our industry price compression is making everything is less expensive. Less expensive to trade and less expensive to invest in portfolios. That helps us as consumers and investors, but it really hurts Wall Street. They have to keep coming up with these new ideas— FYI, there are never any new ideas, just old ideas repackaged— and it comes wrapped in this shiny brochure. If you get that shiny brochure and you read all the way through it, like a textbook, and you get to the fine print at the end and there's one caviar, one thing that happens and the entire product blows up, you can bet that one thing will happen. Your shiny product will blow up and you’ll be left with nothing but ashed in your account. This week’s hidden facts of finance Conventional thinking is usually wrong. Remember how millennials weren't going to buy homes? Well, now home sales are at their highest levels since the housing bust. Remember how today's consumers valued experiences over things? Well, spending on recreational vehicles and goods such as televisions and boats is up 14%. Remember last March at the bottom of the pandemic when everybody said the market's going to take years to recover, we should get out now because it's not going to get better for a long time. Well, guess what? That didn't happen either. Isn't it amazing when people think in groups how wrong they are? The other thing was millennials will never use financial advisors but I think the fastest-growing segment of our client base is millennials. So much for Robo-advisors! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

HELLO Americans! It's episode 39 of Payne Points of Wealth and crypto is getting crushed! There's so much going on right now. Looks like we’re going to have a bonafide labor shortage going into the end of the year. We’ll hit on that great rotation we're talking about a week after week. Tech is bleeding money. We're seeing all those work from home stocks get destroyed. But commodity prices are going up. How do you make sense of any of this?  We're going to give you our playbook today and we'll discuss exactly how we see the next couple of months playing out. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about the right questions you need to be asking to make sure you're going to be on your way to financial independence. What are those questions you should be asking versus the questions you shouldn't be asking? Well, we're going to give you our playbook for that too. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Is crypto collapsing? [1:16] The masks are OFF! [3:01] Normalcy on steroids! [5:05] Shortages of labor and supplies [6:43] The Tipping Point [10:19] Question #1 [10:53] Question #2 [14:06] Question #3 [15:49] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:21] And the masks are off...FINALLY! As we're recording this, roughly a week ago, the CDC came out and said if you're vaccinated you don't have to wear a mask indoors or outdoors. It's crazy because Chris was in New York a week ago, it was cloudy and rainy, you know that April/May weather. Everyone's wearing a mask and people looked dour and sad. Then literally within two days the sun was shining and the CDC came out with the big announcement and it was almost like “Pandemic? What pandemic?” It was a complete 180° and it’s wonderful to see! This week on the tipping point: Asking the right questions Often one of the biggest mistakes people make is not asking the right questions when it comes to financial planning and trying to get on that path to financial independence. We thought we'd throw out some of the questions people ask and then reposition those questions so you're asking the right question. The most asked question is “How much money do I need to save in order to be financially independent?” A better question is “How much income will I need and how much will my savings give me?” In other words, how much income from the investments that your portfolio generates each year is going to help you sustain your lifestyle? Then we get “Should I get long-term care or just roll the dice?” The better question would be “What are all my options for covering long-term care expenses?” You know, there's not just one answer, or solution, to this complicated question. Another is “How can I get the highest possible return on my money?” It's not about the return on your money as much as the return of your money. So the real question is “How do I make sure my money gets returned to me?” Things are changing. You've got to ask the right questions. Now, more than ever, if you want to be financially independent you've got to start being proactive. Start making proactive decisions about your portfolio, reverse engineer to figure out what your goals are, then go back to the drawing board and building that perfect portfolio. That's going to get you to those goals. If you want to hear our answers to these questions check out the episode! This week’s hidden facts of finance Small businesses were hit hardest by the pandemic and are actually responsible for half of all US employment. So small businesses, like ours, employ half of Americans. Of course, this explains why we had the unemployment number go through the roof back in February-March because all of these businesses couldn't stay open. You had a pandemic, no fault of their own they lost everything. It was the saddest part of the pandemic besides losing lives of course. But here's the greatest thing about the US economy, our world works on one premise, find a need and fill it. There are going to be enormous needs and all these companies that are gone are going to be replaced by new companies. Because we are the greatest country in the world, the best in entrepreneurs and they're going to find those needs and they're going to fill them. Then unemployment's going to drop like a stone!  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 38 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is officially here! Not that you didn't know (and feel) that already but last week the official numbers came in and they were way higher than expected. Surprising the markets, surprising economists, but not surprising you and me. We knew the cost of everything was already going up. We know inflation is real. We know rotations going on. Companies can't hire fast enough. We've got a labor shortage. It's getting crazy out there!  On our tipping point segment today we are talking about what's going on with your retirement date, your date of financial independence. Are you planning for it? How do you plan for it? How do you get to a position where you have the freedom to do everything you want to do because you saved enough. You made that big pile of cash. You've invested it right. You grew it and now you have that date where you can live life the way you want to. We're going to tell you how. Check it out.    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Competing with unemployment [2:11] The oscillation between fear and greed [7:16] Ending trends [8:37] The Tipping Point [10:47] Playing “what if” with your financial independence date [14:07] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:15] Are labor shortages and wage inflation what’s coming next? We all know raw material costs are going up, that's been very obvious. We've talked about it week after week and now it’s showing up in the numbers. What's interesting is that there were very weak job numbers. Everyone thought they were going to create another million jobs last month but it was only around 266,000. Way less! Part of the problem is that people are getting so much more money in their unemployment stimulus checks at home that they don't want to go back to work. This puts pressure on companies to give bonuses. Like $50 just to show up to a fast-food interview or an $800 starting bonus from a convenience store because they need people that desperately. This is likely going to lead to wage inflation. What's crazy is that right now for a company to compete with unemployment, they'd have to exceed a $32,000 a year paycheck.  This week on the tipping point: Your date for financial independence One of the biggest problems we work to solve for the 2000 or so families we advise at Payne Capital Management is the date when it will be safe to be financially independent. Which in a way is all of our dreams, right? We use money so that we can have freedom down the line. That's just a great term. Financial independence. Sometimes people love what they do and they have worked hard to get where they are and to them, retirement just isn't’ something they ever want to do. So, why would you plan for retirement if you don’t have plans to actually retire? This is why we talk about financial independence. That point when you only work because you want to not because you have to. There is freedom in knowing that come injury, illness, or pandemic shutdown you will be ok, financially. You won’t be relying on a stimmy check to pay the bills. We help people find their way to this magic date. We advise them on how to get there. We talk about it in the episode so go check it out! This week’s hidden facts of finance Earlier this year on this podcast, we discussed how we were moving back from the virtual world to the real world. We discussed companies like Peloton, the proverbial work from home stock, since that time has lost 53% of its value and could continue to go lower. We're wondering if we could start up a service where we get companies to pay us not to mention how overvalued their stocks are so they can save the value of the company. What do you think guys? The US's physical infrastructure is ranked only 16th globally by the world economic forum. The proposed spending plan, which would be implemented over eight years would return government investment in the real economy to its highest level since the 1960s. That's great news because here in Philly we have potholes the size of Volkswagens! So a $3 trillion investment in our infrastructure will certainly make driving more pleasurable here in Philly. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up!! It's episode 37 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is upon us. Companies are blowing the doors off earnings. Tech stocks have put mind-blowing numbers up there on the earnings board. Yet tech stocks are doing nada! Meanwhile, commodity prices are going up. Real estate investment trusts are going up. Value stocks are going up. There's a lot going on in the market.  How do you play it? Is tech finally dead? Should you get out or move your money around? We're going to break it down for you today. And on our Tipping Point segment, we're going to talk about consolidation. Is your money everywhere? Is it a mess? Do you have a plan? We're going to show talk about what you should be doing to organize and get on track for financial independence.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... This could be the greatest recovery in the history of the country [1:17] Tech earnings are up but the stocks aren’t doing jack! [2:38] Pipelines and their commodities [4:35] Factoring in how high inflation can go [7:39] The Tipping Point [11:21] How consolidating to one advisor can save you big! [14:44] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:49] Positive surprises from boring companies When it comes to markets it's about what are the surprises in the positive? Big tech blowing up their earnings is not a surprise. We're buying more stuff online. We're advertising on Facebook. Duh! The one thing that no one's factoring in is how high inflation can go. Each week that we have an unexpected surprise and inflation goes up it positively affects the bottom line of a lot of companies we're talking about like Procter & Gamble, Caterpillar, and Bank of America. These boring old companies that no one wanted to own for the last decade. This week on the tipping point: Consolidating your financial life. If you think your advisor's working for free, you're paying more than anybody in the industry. They hide these charges but they are there! One thing that we despise more than anything is being overcharged and if you're overcharging yourself, well... shame on you.  Here’s the thing, if you give one advisor $500k and you give another advisor $200k and yet another $300k then each of these firms is treating you like a small account. But if you consolidate it you're entitled to a discount on all the money together. Other problems with spreading it out is that you end up having overlap in your portfolio and paying high fees on all your accounts because you're a little investor at each firm.  Recently we had a client that had millions of dollars and they were being overcharged so much that we figured we could save them 2% a year in fees, that was $80k a year in fees they could drop! Can you imagine what they were losing on the returns that $80k invested over time would have profited them? It doesn’t pay to “diversify” like this! This week’s hidden facts of finance The Census Bureau recently put out its first raw numbers and found that the U.S. population grew at its slowest rates since the great depression and that did not include the death toll from the pandemic. According to Warren Buffet, there were about 2000 companies that entered the auto business in the 1900s because investors and entrepreneurs expected the industry to have an amazing future. Like electric vehicles today. However, in 2009 there were only three carmakers left and two went bankrupt. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Hey, what's up! It's episode 36 of Payne Points of Wealth. We've got a special guest for you today, Kenny Polcari. He's Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors, Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth, and Managing Director at Campfire Capital. Most importantly, he was one of the most famous stock exchange traders going back to the ‘80s and no one gives you a better tour of the New York Stock Exchange than Kenny! We're going to talk with him about what's going on with inflation, the economy, and investing. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about bonds. Bonds are going down. Do you own bond funds? We're going to let some sunlight in and tell you exactly what you should be doing with bonds. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Is there more inflation coming than our Federal Reserve Chief is telling us? [1:40] Housing prices & interest rates [3:41] Ken’s thoughts on crypto [7:23] Why would we listen to a strategist? [12:26] The Tipping Point [15:32] How bonds work [17:18] The difference between an individual bond and a bond fund [18:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [22:16] Kenny Polcari’s thoughts on inflation Kenny and Ryan seem to agree that there's a lot more inflation coming our way than our Federal Reserve Chief is telling us.  Here are Kenny's thoughts on inflation right now "I've been saying it for a while and I've been writing about it my note and we've been talking about it on television, but you can feel it, right? If you live in this world, if you go out shopping, out to the stores, you can feel the price increases. You can see it. And so therefore I don't need the CPI or some government report telling me that there's no inflation when I go out there and I feel that there's plenty of inflation all around, right? I mean, everybody sees it. Everybody's talking about it but the government doesn't want to admit that we've got it. And so my sense is that it's building and it's building. And it's going to rear its ugly head. It's not going to be temporary and transitory the way that the fed keeps telling us it's going to be. I think we're going to see this spike in the next month or the month after. But then it's going to remain and that's going to change the whole story, the whole fed story, the CPI story, the inflation story, how hot is hot? Define hot? You and I can define it one way. The fed is going to define it a different way to fit their story, to fit their narrative. And that's going to be the part where I think the market's going to have a difficult time and investors are going to have to figure out what's the definition of hot to them. And then what's that mean to valuations?" This week on the tipping point: Bond Funds When you own bonds outright it's simple, you know who you're lending to, you know what they're going to pay you in interest to borrow your money, and you know the set date in the future that they're going to return your money. But when Wall Street packages these bonds into a bond fund it takes away the permanence and definition and that's the big problem with owning a bond fund. Not only does the permanency and definition go away but there's also the question of quality. A prime example is back in 2015, there were a lot of municipal bond funds that were being AAA-rated, meaning they're the highest possible credit rating, that still held Puerto Rican bonds and Puerto Rico defaulted on their debt, which means that the holders of those bonds lost their money. Bonds are good, bond funds...not so much. This week’s hidden facts of finance Exchange-traded funds took in a record $502 billion in investor cash last year. Traditional mutual funds on the other hand said goodbye to a record $289 billion. Exchange-traded funds are typically less expensive and more tax-efficient and as we say here at Payne Capital Management, any money saved in taxes and fees is just as green as money made in the market. Exchange-traded funds are new school and mutual funds are old school, you heard it here first.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect with Kenny Polcari His website On Twitter  On Linkedin On YouTube Kenny Polcari Financial Services Executive | Business Commentator | Speaker | Industry Advocate As the founder and Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors and a CNBC Market Analyst - I have dedicated my career to helping my clients and their families achieve their financial goals in life. As Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth I have a range of investment strategy responsibilities including U.S. market and economic analysis and client engagement. I am also a contributor to TDAmeritrade Internal Network and a keynote speaker at many industry and retail events. A 38 year member of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) I bring over 30 years of executive management experience in institutional equities and wealth management, and twenty-five years of stewardship in industry advocacy. I am on the board of the National Organization of Investment Professionals (NOIP), and the Headstrong Project, a nonprofit providing free treatment to 9/11 combat veterans suffering from PTS. Regularly quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplingers, MarketWatch, Thompson Reuters, TheStreet.com and others. Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify