It’s Episode 134 and we're seeing positive signs in the latest jobs report, inflation numbers, and earnings estimates.  On the Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about short-term decision-making, and how it can be extremely detrimental to your long-term financial goals. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth. 

It’s Episode 133 and Fed Chair Jay Powell has spoken. He says inflation is still too high and they’re prepared to raise interest rates further. Is this economy ready to fall off a cliff? Are they going to keep raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions? Well, we’re going to give you our two cents. On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about concentrated stock risk, the perils of owning individual stocks, and why it may derail your entire financial life. Our colleague and certified financial planner, Aaron Dessen joins us.

It’s Episode 132 and economic data is really good, and from our perspective, it’s good news. We’re going to tell you why we like the economy right now. We’re going to talk about the market action. The market’s been selling off as we’re getting to the dog days of summer here. On The Tipping Point, we will talk about your financial planning for the fall. Summer’s coming to an end. Things are getting real. Are you financially fit to get ready for the rest of the year?

It's Episode 131 and we have a very special guest on the show to speak about the labor market. Everyone knows the labor market's been hot and will continue to be. We have Eric Sigurdson on today. He co-leads the Chief Information Officers Practice at Russell Reynolds Associates. He has spent the last 30 years recruiting and placing senior execs in the IT space and is really on the pulse of what's happening in the job market, the tech market specifically. On The Tipping Point, we're going to talk about some of our true and tried investment philosophies that you can apply to your financial freedom independence plan.

It's episode 130, Payne Points of Wealth, and the rally continues to broaden. We're seeing energy stocks, financial stocks, small-cap stocks, and emerging markets, really starting to move as tech has started to slow down and cool off a little bit. Is this a real rotation in the market? Do you need to reposition your portfolio? And on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about your financial health, how it's very similar to your physical health, and the kind of checkups you need to make sure you're on your path to financial independence.  

It’s Episode 129 and markets continue to chug along. The Dow having its best streak since 1987 as money continues to pile into this market. Economic data still coming in well, pretty good. Inflation numbers continue to come down. The Fed could be done with its interest rate policy. They may stop raising interest rates. We’re going to give you our viewpoint. On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about cash management. Interest rates have gone up a lot. Are you making the right decisions with your money right now?

It’s Episode 128 and earnings season is upon us. Bank stocks came out with better-than-expected earnings which is good for stock prices. Tech stocks are still melting up. Is this melt-up going to continue? Can this rally sustain itself throughout the rest of the year? How should you position your portfolio? We're going to answer all those questions. And the economy, everyone's talking about it from hard landing to soft landing. Remarkable. They must have been listening to our podcast because we've talked about a soft landing for a long time. We're going to get into the weeds when it comes to the economy, what you should be thinking about right now. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the cookie-cutter approach. Wall Street loves to sell you a cookie-cutter financial plan. Do you have one? How do you fix it so you're ready for your financial independence? 

It’s Episode 127 and the economic data just keeps coming in better than better. We literally had inflation dropping faster than anyone anticipated. Bank earnings came in better than expected. The numbers look good. Employment is strong. This week we have our colleague and Certified Financial Planner™, Courtney Garcia, We’re going to talk about what pitfalls may lie ahead in the economy, what you have to watch out for, and the mistakes you might be making that you need to adjust given where the economy is. On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about paralysis by analysis. There are a lot of things stopping you from making the right financial decisions on your path to financial independence.

It's Episode 126 and the concentration of stocks in the S&P 500 continues to climb. In fact, 7 stocks account for 27% of the index. Which begs the question, how diversified are you if you own the S&P 500? We're going to talk about that today. We're going to talk about this fantastic economy that just won't fall off a cliff no matter what they tell you. We're going to talk about some of the economic data that's come out, and what it means for the rest of the year. On The Tipping Point, we have a very special guest, our colleague Frankie Lagrotteria. We're going to discuss a lot of different questions you may have right now about how your investment portfolio is positioned. We have some pro tips.

It’s Episode 125 and Apple now is at $3 trillion. As the stock market continues to heat up, economic data continue to come in better than expected. The Roaring Twenties, we’ve been talking about, they’re here. So we’re going to talk about the momentum the market has, what we see in the economy like we do every week, and some of the bigger signals that things are going to get even better than they are today. On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about cyber fraud. We’ve got our friend Keith Tessler telling you how you protect yourself against one of the biggest issues in America today, money being stolen from your account. And we have our colleague Frankie Lagrotteria on the show.

It’s Episode 124 and disbelief is the mother of all bull markets. We hit a recent high this past week in the S&P 500, piercing above where the index was last August on a lot of really good news. Inflation coming down a lot over the course of the last couple of months. We see the Fed making a decision to pause on interest rates. China is stimulating its economy as it’s been slightly slower than was expected on the reopening. So a lot going on, a lot of questions about what’s going to happen for the rest of the year. Is it highly likely we’re going to go into recession, not going into recession? And does this bull market have legs? On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about the long game. When you’re investing your money, trying to get financially independent, you got to think long term, not short term.

It’s Episode 123 and we are in a classic bull market. The market’s been climbing the wall of worry all the way since October. Meanwhile, the Fed finally skips, pauses, stops raising interest rates. I’m not sure if they’ll raise again, but we know inflation continues to come down, dropping like a rock. Meanwhile, wages continue to stay strong as unemployment stays at record lows. Folks, this doesn’t look like a recession. We’ve got two special guests today. We have our colleague, certified financial planner at Payne Capital Management, and contributor on CNBC, Courtney Garcia. And we’ve got Steve Forbes today talking about his life, his view of the markets and the economy.

It's Episode 122 and it's official, we're in a new booming bull market. The S&P 500 is up over 20% since last October as the economy continues to improve. Inflation coming down. The job market remains strong yet wages are growing at a slower pace. It's almost like a Goldilocks scenario – we will give you our 2 cents. We're past the debt ceiling now we're looking into the future. Bob and I are going to read the tea leaves and tell you exactly what we think is going to happen in the economy. On The Tipping Point, we're going to talk about those gray areas that you have to make decisions on when it comes to your financial independence and you've got to make the right decision. We're going to help you make the right decision.

It’s Episode 121 and the economy continues to remain strong. The jobs market continues to surprise everyone with a hot jobs number. This past week and inflation continues to come down. Every naysayer out there is still skeptical of what kind of condition the economy is in. You know how we feel. We’re optimistic, but we’re going to talk about it today. On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about picking your financial independence date. When can you stop working, and live off your portfolio? What do you need to be thinking about? Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth. 

It’s Episode 120 and the pessimism party continues despite the fact the news just keeps coming in better than expected. Unemployment is at a 53-year low. Right now, we’ve got inflation continuing to come down and earnings better than expected. Could be a Goldilocks economy. But Wall Street doesn’t want you to think that. We’re going to get into it today. On The Tipping Point, we’ve got a great guest today with Ryan’s friend Carrie Kerpen. She’s an entrepreneur who sold her business. We’re going to get really deep on the psychology of money.

It’s Episode 119 and economic growth continues, much to the chagrin of many Wall Street strategists. The economy continued to grow in the first quarter. Earnings season is upon us and earnings have been pretty good. Technology has been leading the way. Markets are going higher and the French stock market is leading all markets. So it’s crazy out there. We’re going to break it down for you today. On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about variables that you need to factor in when it comes to you becoming financially independent.

It’s Episode 118 and inflation is coming down. We had the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) come down more than expected last week. Meanwhile, the labor market remains hot. Our vantage point of a soft landing is becoming more real by the moment. Recessionary fears are continuing to dwindle as investors are starting to put money back in the market.

We have a very special edition today. We have one of our favorite Wall Street strategists, Ed Yardeni, who has a research firm that we follow very, very closely. We're going to talk about Ed's viewpoint on the economy and the markets. Ed is one of the few optimists on Wall Street, there are not many of them. We are so happy to have him on the show. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.

The market continues to go higher, despite a banking crisis. Interest rates are starting to come down. Things don’t seem as dire as once thought. We’ll give you our thoughts on what we see right now with the ten-year treasury at 3.5%. Markets inching higher throughout the year. What’s next in the economy? In the market? You’ll get our 2 cents. On the Tipping Point, we have a very special guest and friend Chad Madden, an entrepreneur who had a liquidity event. He’s going to talk about the psychology of money, the thoughts, and the processes he went through to have that liquidity event. Things will be helpful for you with your journey to financial independence.

The Fed put is back, Uncle Jay Powell’s got your back. Every bank in the country, every deposit, is basically backed by the Fed, stabilizing the entire financial system. Is this just a band-aid to put on a bigger problem with the banking system? We’re going to talk about exactly where we see the banking system, and where we see the economy right now. Does this mean we’re going into recession or will the Fed start taking the foot off the pedal, stop raising interest rates and give us that soft landing we’ve been talking about? On the Tipping Point, we will talk about reallocating your portfolio. Is it time to reevaluate your investment strategy?

We’ve seen some bank failures over the course of the last week and there are questions about systemic risk throughout the entire system. The Fed continues to be hawkish on interest rates. Is this the beginning of something bigger? A big economic downfall that we all need to prepare for? We are going to give you our thoughts on what we think is going to transpire, and how to position your portfolio. On the Tipping Point, today, we’re going to talk about SECURE Act 2.0. There are huge tax benefits available to you that you might not know about. We’re going to give you the rundown to make sure that you’re on your path to financial independence.

There’s a tug-of-war going on in the economy right now. Inflation is stubborn. Not coming down as quickly as expected. Yet the job market remains hot as people are spending money at unexpectedly high rates. So what does this mean? We’ve got consumer spending, yet inflation is still high. Is that the recipe for disaster? Well, we’re going to tell you, we think today on the show. On the Tipping Point today, we’re going to talk about questions you need to be asking yourself to make sure you’re on your path to financial independence

We’re in the midst of earnings season and 70% of companies have beat expectations, and that seems to be the theme this year. Whatever the economists and strategists told you was going to happen is not happening. Things are better than expected, just like we told you on this podcast. We’re going to tell you why everything is going better in the economy than everyone anticipated. On the Tipping Point with Aaron Dessen, CFP® we’re talking about what you need to be doing right now with your money. Also, we go over reasons why some investors choose to DIY their financial plan rather than have a professional financial adviser.   #recession

It’s episode 111 and the news continues to get better as we move into February. The Federal Reserve sounds like it might actually be open to a pivot sometime this year. Their hawkish policy looks like it may be over as inflation continues to come down. Interest rates continue to fall and earnings season hasn’t been amazing but hasn’t been that bad either. So questions about a recession are still a big question mark. Well, we’re going to talk about that today. We’re going to talk about questions you need to be asking yourself right now to make sure that you’re on your path to financial independence. Don’t fight the Fed? Or, forget the Fed. This week Jerome Powell raised interest rates. He didn’t decrease interest rates. He didn’t pivot. The Fed increased interest rates and the market didn’t fight the Fed and it went up 5%.  Don’t fight the Fed? Here’s a new term – forget the Fed. The Bond Market seems to be forgetting the Fed The Fed keeps raising interest rates, but longer-term rates are falling.  Markets are forward-looking. They’re not concerned about what’s happening right now and what the bond market’s been telling us for months is don’t believe the Fed. The Fed keeps saying that they’re going to keep rates higher for longer, yet longer-term interest rates kept going down. And as we like to say, the bond market’s a lot smarter than the Federal Reserve. ”The bond market's a lot smarter than the Federal Reserve.   Ryan Payne Huge bounce in disruptive technologies Tesla’s up big and Bitcoin keeps moving higher in the short term. Is this the real deal? Are we going back to big tech names like Bitcoin and Tesla, or is this just a dead cat bounce? The Fed has flooded the market with liquidity In the past, we’ve had the Federal Reserve flooding the market with liquidity. Interest rates were at zero. That’s when you get rapid speculation where people invest in things like pet rocks and cryptocurrencies and disruptive, innovative technology without any earnings. I’ve seen this movie before. Blue chip, good-quality companies are the place to be. ”Don't be fooled. Don't buy pet rocks and don't buy innovative technology.   Bob Payne When we look at new portfolios we see most are underweighted to the global markets. That’s where the best opportunities are going to be in the next 5 to 10 years. If you’re going to buy tech, buy some tech around the world because if you look at other stock markets, they’re just so cheap relative to the U.S. ”Look at like Amazon, it still trades at 50 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, you can buy the Chinese version Alibaba, it only trades for 14 times forward earnings.   Ryan Payne The Tipping Point: Basic Planning Questions To Ask Yourself Question #1 Will I really spend less later in life? Payne Point: In our experience after seeing thousands of portfolios, the answer is absolutely not. When you factor in inflation and health care costs, you will likely spend more. It’s something you want to account for in your projections when doing your financial plan. ”The biggest fear anyone has is running out of money in retirement.   Bob Payne Question #2 How are you going to fill in your income gap in retirement, after your paycheck stops? Payne Point: You need a diversified portfolio that will generate a steady income. For a lot of the new clients that we brought on in the last year or so, the biggest issue was they didn’t realize that they were overweighted to technology and a lot of these disruptive mega-cap growth stocks. And then when the shoe dropped we saw portfolios down 30 – 40% last year. But the problem is you only realize it last year when the market was going down. And it’s just so critical to manage that risk. ”Cash-flow is king when you're in retirement.   Bob Payne Question #3 Are my finances organized in one place? Payne Point: Generally, most people do not have their financial information in one place. Keeping all of your account information such as passwords, wills, RMD information, and tax returns organized in one location, like our e-money portal, will make managing a more effective and efficient portfolio easier – for you and for your heirs. ”I have 150 clients and every year a handful end up with a 401k they forgot about or an IRA they had in some firm.. they always find some account they forgot about.   Chris Payne Question #4 What would my tax picture look like in retirement? Payne Point: The more you project out into the future, the more proactive moves you can make when it comes to taxes.  For example, small tweaks you can make to your portfolio with taxes, whether it’s converting money to a Roth IRA before you have to take money out of your IRA – when the government forces you to do it. And turning that into tax-free income over your life and then your heirs can inherit that money tax-free. Hidden Facts of Finance  Since 1970, there have been 20 government shutdowns related to the debt ceiling, and they always have been sorted out. Over the past decade, the median net worth of the top ten billionaires has nearly tripled from 39 billion to 115 billion. In fact, the first billionaire to pass the $100 billion threshold was Jeff Bezos in 2018 when he took the top. Jimi Hendrix was billed as the overall headliner at Woodstock in 1969 and commanded the highest paycheck of all the performers. Hendrix was paid $18,000 for his appearance at Woodstock, which was the equivalent of making $125,000 today.

It’s episode 110 and the economic data continue to come in strong. GDP growth for the 4th quarter was better than expected. We’re seeing earnings growth relatively strong for the 4th quarter and guidance is not falling off a cliff. The data is coming in much better than what’s been anticipated on Wall Street and the market is following suit. We’re in a bull market. Prices are going higher. But is this a fakeout? Do you need to get to the sidelines right now? Is the economy ready to fall off a cliff? Or is this the real deal? Contrarian Costanza In one episode of Seinfeld, George figured that every decision in his life he made was wrong. He decided I’m going to do the opposite. I’m going to become the contrarian Costanza. So the George Costanza strategy is to do the opposite of what you think you should do. Or what the experts are telling you to do. In terms of the market, it worked out pretty well following that strategy over the last couple of months. Conventional wisdom turns out to be excessive pessimism Conventional wisdom over the last year was the Federal Reserve is going to have to get so aggressive, they are going to have to kneecap the economy and bring it down. It turns out that was more like excessive pessimism. The Payne view is always a bit contrarian. Last year is a perfect example. We had every strategist, and every economist extremely negative on the economy, extremely negative on the market. But if you’re diversified, last year you were down around 10%. It’s not that big a deal. And meanwhile, now markets are off to the races. And if you were sitting in cash, you try to time it. You’ve put yourself in a bad position now. ”If you were diversified last year you were down around 10%. It's not that big a deal. And meanwhile, now markets are off to the races.   Ryan Payne Germany is another example. Germany was the poster child of the worst place to be last year. They had an energy crisis because Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet Germany is up 40% since September. How can that possibly be? You have to be able to have the fortitude to invest when things are down and when the optimism is not there. Most of us project the future based on our most recent experience. And as you know, the year went by, the news got more down, and the market got more volatile. Anticipation is mitigation. Corporate CEOs last year were worried about a slowdown, just like everyone else. So what do they do? They got proactive very, very quickly. They start to rewrite their business in anticipation of things slowing down. So all this proactive activity is happening to make sure that their balance sheets stay in check. And that’s why you always see the surprises in the positive because that anticipation is already happening as we’re worrying about things, people are actually taking action. As the talking heads are telling us that the economy is slowing they’re starting to reduce their earnings estimates. So when the estimates are met with the actual earnings, the market’s not surprised by that. Bear market illusion. To some, it seems these bear markets last longer in their mind than they actually do. They do things like lock themselves into a 4% CD. Well, the market’s up 6% now, and you have to wait a whole 12 months to get that 4%. And you’ve missed that move in the market. So it’s amazing how quickly times can change and markets can change. Emerging markets are up 10% as we’re recording this. You don’t get that return back. You’re not going to make any money unless you’re invested in the market. ”Your boat's not going to go anywhere unless your sails are up.   Chris Payne $5 trillion sitting in money market funds earning 4%.  But what happens when you don’t get 4%? And that 4% is over 12 month period. You’ve already missed the one-month period where you’d have a 50% better return. Think of the FOMO as the market rallies. With 5 trillion sitting in cash, while you’re starting to see markets catch a fire. All these private equity firms sitting with all this cash and these big banks that have to put the money to work, or it goes back to their investors and they want to put it to work. Company buybacks. Chevron just raised its dividend. They announced a $75 billion buyback. Exxon came out with a similar buyback. So there’s there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. And, the question is, where is that money going to go in the future? And the pressure, from professional money managers, from institutions, from hedge funds, and from individuals, it’s just going to continue. ”Markets operate by discounting the current environment and looking to the future.   Bob Payne The Tipping Point: Lessons you can learn from last year Lesson #1 Inflation and Your Financial Plan Payne Point: inflation is real and you’ve got to account for it in your financial plan It’s been in the headlines for the last year because especially since the Federal Reserve completely dropped the ball in not recognizing that inflation wasn’t transitory initially. We’re dealing with 40-year high inflation than we’ve had to deal with in 40 years. During the 40-year period, we still had inflation at 2%.  That still means a huge cost of living increase over your lifetime. Long-range planning should include inflation. Inflation is insidious, it’s hidden, but it’s real. A good rule of thumb we always use is you’re going to have to double what you need to live on every 20 years. And most of us will be retired for up to 30 years plus. So you really have to account for your expenses doubling in retirement. And most of us don’t do those calculations. ”A good rule of thumb we always use is you're going to have to double what you need to live on every 20 years.   Ryan Payne Lesson #2 Not knowing how much risk you have in your portfolio Payne Point: Many were overweighted in Tech. For a lot of the new clients that we brought on in the last year or so, the biggest issue was they didn’t realize that they were overweighted to technology, they were overweighted to a lot of these disruptive mega-cap growth stocks. And then when the shoe dropped we saw portfolios down 30 – 40% last year. But the problem is you only realize it last year when the market was going down. And it’s just so critical to manage that risk. ”Risk is only seen in hindsight.   Bob Payne You have to expect the unexpected. You can’t have foresight for black swan events and unexpected market sell-offs. Look what happened in 2020 when we had the pandemic collapse – 35% in two days. ”Ignorance isn't bliss. Hope is not a tactic. You should have your portfolio thoroughly evaluated to make sure that you're covering all your asset classes and not just investing in one thing.   Chris Payne Hidden Facts of Finance  While the S&P 500 price declined by 19.78% in 2022, S&P dividends went up by 10.82% in 2022. The increase was higher than inflation and since 1926, dividends have contributed approximately 32% of the total return of the S&P 500. While capital appreciation contributed to 68% all the way through 2021. Canadian Labor shortages are so severe that the government has announced plans to admit nearly 1.4 million immigrants over the next three years. Ken Griffin, Citadel hedge fund cranked out a record 16 billion in profit for clients last year, topping John Paulson’s bet against the subprime mortgages in 2007 that was described as the greatest trade ever. The top 20 hedge funds collectively generated 22.4 billion in profit after fees.

It’s episode 109, the first podcast of the year and there is a lot going on right now. Europe, emerging markets going through the roof. Interest rates dropping like a rock. Yet the Fed says they’re going to keep rates higher for longer. Who’s right? The bond market or the Fed? Every economist telling you we’re still going into recession. Yet employment is strong. Inflation is coming down. Well, we’re going to give you our 2 cents on everything today, give you a blueprint for how to look at the economy, and how to look at the stock market this year. And we got tons of questions from you, the listener over this holiday season. We’re going to answer your questions today to make sure you’re on your path to financial independence. Don’t fight the Fed? Or, don’t trust the Fed. The oldest adage on Wall Street is don’t fight the Fed. But it seems like everything they say the opposite is of what’s happening or they’ve done the opposite. Or, they don’t always follow through on what they say they’re going to do.  The Fed has been reactionary In the face of good economic data, the Fed says we’re going to raise rates and keep rates higher for longer. Analysts and strategists are believing it is gospel. A year ago they didn’t believe anything the Fed said. ”I’m not listening to the Fed. I'm listening to the bond market. Bob Payne Prices have been dropping. Oil, copper, and corn prices have come down a lot. Inflation is dropping. And we somehow believe that the Fed isn’t going to capitulate and lower rates? Look at the markets, it’s the difference between reality and expectation. That’s where prices are. And misery loves company. So when you have 60% of the economists predicting a recession, it’s comfortable to be there. You don’t want to be the outlier. It’s not just the Fed. The strategists and analysts talking about recession. I think we’re being a little harsh to the Fed. They’re not the only ones. They’re in good company. Let’s talk about the strategists, the analysts, and the economists that have said that we’re going into recession. But what does the data say?  Positive signs for the economy. We’ve got a strong labor market. We have inflation coming down, Wages are staying strong. But it is remarkable with all the economic data being relatively strong, professionals and experts are coming to the same conclusion…Recession. The experts were wrong about Europe. Look at the best-performing part of the portfolio year to date. And the last six months happen to be in Europe and emerging markets. 70% of the markets around the world outperformed the U.S.  We’ve heard the conventional wisdom, “Oh, don’t put your money in Europe, don’t put it in China. China is never going to come out of lockdown.” The experts were wrong about China. The second-largest economy in the world, and they’re never going to come out of lockdown. They are coming out of lockdown and it’s very good for the global economy. Who would have thought that? And if you read the news last year, nobody was talking about that.

It’s episode 108, the last episode of the year. And let’s face it, everything’s interesting. Into the end of the year. Markets are extremely volatile. They’re not letting up. We have the most volatility since 2008. Are we going to a recession next year? The debate continues as Labor continues to be strong. The Fed keeps talking tough when it comes to Fed policy. The big question is what are earnings going to look like next year? We’re going to about positioning your portfolio for the new year ahead. On the tipping point today, we’re going to talk about what financial products would you want in your stocking this Christmas and what financial products you definitely want to do without.

It’s episode 107 of Payne Points of Wealth and economic data continues to come in relatively strong. Meanwhile, inflation is starting to plummet, whether it's oil prices, lumber costs, supply chains easing. We're starting to see some relief within the economy. Is this a good thing? Is this a bad thing or is this just a fake out? As Wall Street continues to tell us the economy is about to fall off a cliff? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about your EGO and why it's ruining your financial independence plan. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Mortgage rates are coming down [1:28] The Dow Jones did 20% over two months [2:05] They keep saying it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to have a recession [2:24] The banks are making a huge profit on your cash right now [3:50] Investor sentiment is really negative right now [5:45] Latin America is hot, the 14% for the year. [6:50] The Tipping Points [11:50] No one can beat the market. [12:40] Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40] This week on the tipping point: Your ego is ruining your financial independence plan. And I would say that one of the biggest mistakes investors make when you're trying to plan for your financial independence is you let your ego get in the way. And nothing makes for a worse financial plan than letting your ego dictate a lot of your financial decisions. There's never been a company or an individual that's been able to consistently outperform the market. But what do people do? They've got to try and prove that because "My ego says I can do it. I'm going to go out there and underperform, even lose money trying." This week’s hidden facts of finance A recent survey shows 84% of companies are planning to hire in 2023. Random length lumber for January delivery settled at $423.80 per 1000 board feet on November 29. That's down 63% for the year. In 1976, the Eagles released Hotel California selling 32 million copies worldwide, making it the sixth best-selling album of all time.   See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris paynecm.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 106 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy is looking a-okay! We've got the market rebounding into the end of the year. We've got wages going up, unemployment still low, and inflation is coming down. Are those economists and strategists on Wall Street actually, right? Are we going to fall off a cliff? Are we going to recession? Well, we're going to give you our viewpoint on that. We'll also give you our 2 cents on exactly where the economy's going. On the Tipping Point, we've got a special guest, Anthony O'Neill, a debt specialist. He's going to talk about money, his life, and relationship to money. It's a great show! Check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Missed opportunity in the international markets [2:01] Spending is still strong [7:18] The Tipping Point [9:14] Anthony’s background with money [10:19] The lack of financial education [15:09] Anthony’s mindset when it comes to wealth building [19:31] If you're throwing a Hail Mary pass you might be in trouble. [25:37] Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40] It's hard to be an investor You go back to 2008 when we started Payne Capital Management, we believed it was one of the greatest bull markets in history. We were right on the doorstep of it. Everybody was pretty negative, especially in the US market. Now it's going full circle. Now everybody's positive in the US market and negative in the international markets. They don't see the opportunity. But it's smacking you right in the face.  Who doesn't know that Taiwan could be invaded by China, who doesn't know that the US dollar is hurting non-US assets, and who doesn't know that there's an energy crisis in Europe? Meanwhile, most of the world doesn't know right now that in the UK, the British stock market, the Footsie, is outperforming the S&P, the DOW, and the Nasdaq. It's wild to think that England has gone positive for the year because when you look at the headlines their political system is a mess and they've got higher inflation than we do. But if we all know it then it's already priced into the market. It's kind of like this, it doesn't look good in Europe. Yeah, we know. But the market's already accounted for that.  This week on the tipping point: Anthony O’Neal dept specialist You'll need to check out the episode to hear all the wisdom dropped by Anthony O’Neal but here's a little teaser… "I believe that if you aim at nothing you'll hit that all the time. I believe that the caliber of your future will be determined by the caliber of goals and decisions that you make today. If you want your future to be bright, if you want your future to be wealthy, solid, fruitful, and joyful then you have to make fruitful and joyful goals and decisions today. It's important.  When I branched out on my own about two years ago, I said, "Where am I going? What do I want to accomplish?" My very first thought is I want to be intentional, I want to be impactful, and I want to be influential. Those three things will then produce income. So that's the main thing, are my goals intentional? Are my goals, if I accomplish them, will they be impactful to others? Will it be influential? And if the answer is yes to all three of those, then income will come. You can't anywhere without goals or without a vision. Really more so vision than goals when you think about it. Because goals mean that once you hit that goal, that comes to a stop. So I love goals but also, personally, I want a vision that is ongoing that is never going to stop. I'm going to keep going as long as I'm living on this earth." This week’s hidden facts of finance Apple has outperformed its peers by a wide margin this year. Apple is now worth more than Microsoft and META put together combined. There have been around 33,000 tech layoffs since the beginning of November. However, the economy generated something like 261,000 jobs in October and 200,000 in November. Simple math, more jobs are being created than are being lost. This doesn't sound very recessionary. 10,000 baby boomers reach age 65 every day according to the US Census Bureau. And by 2030, all baby boomers will be at least 65. The Boomer labor force has been declining by 2.2 million on average each year since 2010 or about 5,900 people daily are leaving the workforce. We think this is a problem. The US just passed 1 trillion music streams this year. The first time that milestone had been reached in a single year. That's about 960,000 years of streaming music so far in 2022. Resources & People Mentioned Anthony O’Neal debt specialist See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 105 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy continues to chug along. We had retail spending up even with record-high inflation. We're starting to see on the ground floor inflation coming down, and unemployment is still strong, yet every economist and strategist still say we're going to fall off a cliff. We're going to address that today. We've seen a huge rally in the global markets over the course of the last couple of weeks, specifically internationally. Should you be playing that in your portfolio? Well, we're gonna break it down for you. Check it out.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Are we going to see a healthy end-of-the-year rally? [1:04] The market is smarter than everybody! [4:52] The ‘Yeah…but’ market [7:29] The Tipping Point [11:59] Paying down debt [14:55] Do you readjust your portfolio? [16:04] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:58] Emerging markets are trending! Right now we're talking about how we don't know what's going to happen next, we don't know what's going on. But one thing I do know is what we don't expect is what's going to happen. We've seen this with what I call the pandemic hangover trade. We've seen disruptive technology, and it's still getting slaughtered here, even as markets are recovering, and I think one of the most obvious trends in the world is emerging markets. You look at the emerging markets right now, they've been growing faster than the US in terms of profits growth since like 1995, yet their stock market is in the same place it was in 2007. So there are a lot of places you can be allocating your capital right now that are dirt cheap that are poised to rise in the future. This week on the tipping point: When to take action and when not to When it comes to financial planning, sometimes it's good to take action, but other times it's better to maybe just hold back and let things play out. So let's talk about when you should be taking action and when you should not take action when it comes to your financial independence plan. A point of confusion, when it comes to action or no action, is eliminating debt. It's actually a trickier conversation than it used to be because at the beginning of this year your mortgage would typically be your largest debt and you were getting a 2-3% rate depending on how long you're going out. Now you're paying like 6-7% and it really becomes a portfolio decision and with rates so much higher right now, I would say unless you're locked into a lower rate it might be better to start paying off debt and as opposed to mortgaging, maybe just paying out right if you have cash because that's a real hard spread to get over the long term if you're starting to borrow at like 6-7%.  Another big This week’s hidden facts of finance India will have the highest growth rate of all countries over the next 10 years, there are also opportunities in parts of the Middle East, and North Africa, although capital markets in these places are still very early in development, you gotta have some money around the world. What do FTX, Vroom, Draft Kings, and Coinbase all have in common besides the fact they're down 62 to 98% so far this year? They all spent $6.5 million per 30 seconds for Super Bowl ads just less than a year ago. Since the inception date of 8/1/2001 CNBC's Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio returned a cumulative 210%. Compare that to the S&P 500's 398%, nearly 50% better. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 103 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED just doesn't want us to have a good time. J Powell, again, talking extremely hawkish in its comments as we're recording this. However, we've got a hot job market, unemployment is still staying extremely low, close to a 50-year low. We just keep adding jobs and wages continue to go up as this economy is still on solid footing. Should we be rooting for a bad economy or rooting for a good economy? Well, we're going to give you our view. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about end-of-the-year tax and financial moves you can make to make sure you're on solid footing.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The little boy who cries wolf [1:10] Why stock equities are the ultimate hedge against inflation [4:41] Time in the market not timing the market [7:23] The Tipping Point [11:30] Hidden Facts of Finance [30:31] Getting paid to wait It's time in the markets, not timing the market. Let's just take the Federal Reserve's conference call the other day, in the course of a half hour the market went up 400 points from what was perceived as dovish comments then closed 500 points down. That's virtually a thousand-point swing, a thousand points in a period of two hours! You're gonna invest in that mess? The whole idea is that this short-term volatility tells you nothing. Trying to game it or time it is so futile, it's ridiculous. Meanwhile, when you have a diversified portfolio, you're making money every day. Your dividends accrue, your interest is accrued, you earn it, it's yours, and you get paid to wait!  This week on the tipping point: Pro Tips for Tax Optimization  It's the end of the year. It's coming up on tax time so this is the time to really look at your portfolio. We thought it would be a good time to talk about some of the pro moves that we use with our clients at our boutique firm Payne Capital Management, some of the strategies we use at the end of the year that our listeners can apply to their portfolio to optimize their portfolio for their financial independence.  One of the things that we like to do towards the end of the year, especially with a volatile year as we've had, are tax swaps. Over time investments will have a lot of embedded unrealized capital gains so whenever we can do some tax loss harvesting it saves folks a lot of money on the back end. This may be the biggest year ever for tax loss harvesting.  A few other tax strategies that are great at the end of the year that no one looks at are Roth conversions, charitable contributions from retirement accounts, and making sure that you're maxing out your retirement plan contribution. This week’s hidden facts of finance Alibaba holding group, a data-driven colossus in retail, logistics, lending, and more has generated 89 billion in free cash flow over the past five years. The equivalent in the US would be Amazon which has only generated 75 billion over the last five years. Yet, its shares are lower than their debut price back in 2014. Alibaba's market value of $168 billion is just a sliver of Amazon's trillion dollars. There might be some opportunity in China Since March gold has slid 18.3%, far worse than global stocks which are only down 8%. Gold isn't a hedge, not against inflation, stock weakness, or even war. It's a commodity. Americans average financial assets amounted to 155,000 back in 2008. At the end of 2021 just last year, assets climbed to $349,000 on average, an increase of 125%. It's not only Americans who can look back on a long decade of rich monetary blessings, even around the world people are getting richer. 56 years after its original release the Beetles Revolver, which is one of the greatest albums of all time, could be at #1 on the Billboard 200 album charts again thanks to the new stereo remix of the album.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 102 of Payne Points of Wealth and tech is dead! Our prophecy has come true. We've warned you about tech for a long time. Meanwhile, markets are rallying hard here and the economy is actually growing despite what all those economists have been telling you. Is this just a big fake-out? Is this a bear market rally? Are we going into a big recession next year? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that today. We're going to tell you exactly how to play all the market moves and how to look at the economy right now correctly. We're also going to talk about financial planning, physical training, and what they have in common. We've got a great show. Check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Economists are so sus! [1:06] Is the S&P overweighted in tech? [4:01] You make the most $$ in a bear market [7:12] The Tipping Point [12:08] There is no wisdom on the internet [13:11] Help to do the right thing when it feels wrong [16:03] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:52] Are you missing a rally because you’re overweight in mega-cap tech stocks? If you look at the S&P 500, it accounts for something like 25% but the entire weighting is only in six or seven stocks. That's the problem, the S&P is so grossly overweight in tech that you're not benefiting from this rally. What blew our minds looking at the numbers this past week is that old-school boring value stocks like JP Morgan, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are only down 5%, but tech growth stocks are down 30%. That's a 25% spread!  This tells you that right now it's not about being in or out of the market, it's about having the right portfolio. If you're diversified you're not down that much this year and that's the whole point. You have to spread your risk out. The overall market is telling us that some parts of the economy aren't doing great like tech, but some parts of the economy are doing really, really well. It's like we are experiencing rolling recessions, not an all-or-none proposition. This week on the tipping point: Financial Fitness Trainers There are a lot of principles that we can apply from the fitness world to your retirement or financial independence plan. What we've learned in our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, is that our role as financial advisors is a lot like being a personal financial trainer. The similarities are remarkable. You definitely work out better when you have a personal trainer. You get in shape faster and you have less injury because they get you to focus on every part of your body. They don't limit you to what you would limit yourself to. That's what happens when you're investing. "Well, I'm not gonna invest in that area because I lost money there once." or "I'm a brave investor, I'm going to roll the dice and go a hundred percent in crypto or the arc fund." You make a lot of mistakes because you don't know what you don't know.  This week’s hidden facts of finance John Deere and Company has 50 autonomous tractors in its global testing fleet but intends to ramp up commercial production next year. Money funds are now paying a lot more than bank savings accounts, which yield an average of 1.09% according to bankrate.com. Fidelity's tax-exempt money market fund may be the best bet if you're in a high tax bracket, it pays 1.75%, which is the equivalent of getting 3.43% if you're in a high tax bracket. That's not bad for money just sitting in cash. Renewable energy could account for 60% of power generation in Western Europe and 35% in the US by the year 2030. Up from 35% and 23% today, respectively. Ironically, high fossil fuel prices are the biggest reason that energy producers have the ability to fund the energy transition to cleaner alternatives. Schwab generated 132 million off money market funds in the third quarter up from 29 million a year ago when the company had to issue waivers to compensate for ultra-low money market yields. It's incredible how much yields have gone up in the last couple of months. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 101 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is not so bad. Bank earnings looking relatively strong. Everything's still in the backdrop of what is the FED going to do. Are they going to keep raising interest rates? Are they going to pause? Are they going to start lowering interest rates? Nobody really knows. Meanwhile, the market's like a rollercoaster ride up one day and down the next. It can't really find any footing and uncertainty is high. Russia is still in invasion of Ukraine. Sounds like Xi Jinping is the ultimate ruler forever of China. It's a crazy world. We're going to give you our thoughts on exactly what's going on in the economy, what's going on in the stock market, the ying and yangs, everyday moves, and how to play it. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about how every investor on Wall Street gets treated the same. No matter how much money you have, it's bad. We're going to explain why. Check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What’s going on in the mind of J. Powell? [1:24] Bad is good and good is bad [4:21] You gotta be in to win [8:22] The Tipping Point [12:57] The dirty secret of our industry [14:19] The sexiest investments [17:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [22:35] Nobody can predict what's unknowable We're at a point in the market where good news is bad news and bad news is good news and then there's a little mixed bag of both. You have a GDP number coming out this week and some economists say it may be very, very strong. They've been a little weaker than they were last quarter, but they're still positive. Then you get these rip-your-face-off rallies from companies when they come in with really decent earnings. Lamb research came in the other day with decent earnings, really good earnings stock going from 300 to 370 in one week. The same thing happened with Lockheed Martin.  The problem with trying to time the market is that you can get on the sidelines and wait for the good news, but the good news happens, you can't get back in. So it's one of these cases where we're in a corrective phase of the market and it's going to stay a corrective phase until the FED stops. That may very well be happening right now but nobody can predict what's unknowable.  This week on the tipping point: Wall Street treats every investor the same We've been looking at a lot of cases over the course of the last couple weeks at our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, and we see every strategy under the sun. As we analyze portfolios, we look at all the underlying investments and the thing that blows my mind is it doesn't matter if you have $10 million or $10,000 Wall Street treats you the same. They sell you the same high-cost tax-inefficient products. It doesn't even matter how much money you have. It's kind of criminal and it's important as you build your net worth to make sure you're not constantly being treated like a retail investor. It all comes down to the fiduciary rule. When President Obama proposed the fiduciary rule for the financial services industry, it was amazing. Banks, Wall Street firms, and insurance companies all fought it because they don't want to act in the investor's best interest, they wanna act in a shareholder's best interest. If you're ever going to invest with a wirehouse or a bank and insurance company, it's better to buy their stock because they're working in the best interest of the shareholder.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter for $54.20 a share is at a price that is double the current valuation of Twitter's main rivals Meta and Snap. In line with Meta and Snap Musk should be paying more like $24 per share for Twitter. No wonder why he fought so hard to get out of this deal. The current rise in mortgage rates has real consequences. The $1,900 a month payment on a $450,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 3% can only support now a $300,000 loan at six and a half percent interest rates. The only two bands that have surpassed the $2 billion sales mark for concert ticket sales in their history are the Rolling Stones and U2. Stock prices aren't great at predicting recessions. The market provided a 1 month advance notice for the 2001 recession. It was 3 months late in its warning of the 1973 recession and 8 months late in the 2008 recession. False warnings came in 1962, 1977, and 1987. Sounds like the market's not really great at predicting economic downfall. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up? It's episode 100 of Payne Points of Wealth. It's hard to believe it's been two years already! We've got unemployment still at the lowest levels in 50 years. We've got wages going up, and we've got an employment market that just won't cool off. What's the FED going to do? Will they finally pivot or are they ready to take this economy off a cliff? Are we going to a deep recession depression? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly how to play the economy, play the strong dollar, play the higher interest rates, play the conflict in Russia. There are so many issues, I can't name them all. On the Tipping Point we're going to talk about financial planning red flags. You're on your path to financial independence so what red flags do you need to avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to reach your goals?  >>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE

What's up? It's episode 99 of Payne Points of Wealth and there is no good news. Inflation is not coming down as quickly as expected. The FED continues to talk tough and interest rates are skyrocketing. There is a threat of nuclear war in Eastern Europe. As usual, we're going to break it down for you today and talk about our views on where everything is going. Are we going to have this huge recession that we're hearing about week after week? On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about roulette, chess, and poker and what they have to do with your financial life. Go have a listen! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... If it weren’t for mistakes the FED wouldn’t make any decisions [1:03] Only things going up are yields and inflation [3:51] Having a Revenge of the Nerds portfolio [6:55] The Tipping Point [10:40] To pay taxes or not to pay? [13:55] Playing stock picking roulette [17:27] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:58] Finally seeing real, positive, yields! The only thing going up this year has been inflation and short-term money market yields. As financial advisors and planners, we're in a position where we have portfolios that we can actually sink our teeth into.  You have forward earnings at about 16 times, which means stocks are valued where they are in the average PE ratio. You have bond yields that are significant, where there’s a decent return in our intermediate bond portfolio and there's great opportunity. We were more concerned in January when we saw interest rates at zero than we are today. Now we know we can generate the income, generate the total return, that we need to help all of our clients overcome unexpected inflation and taxes to achieve their financial goals. We don't wanna have a portfolio that's cool. We want to have a portfolio that's like the revenge of the nerds, and that is the kind of market we have now! Yes, having bonds that come due, how boring. I love it! Having dividend stocks that increase their dividend every year. How boring. I love it! That's where we have to be. The key is you have to take action. If you have losses, do some tax swaps because you want to put money in the loss bank. We are taught as children to put money in the piggy bank, put some money in the loss bank, there will be gains in the future. This week on the tipping point: Chess, poker, or roulette? Today we compare some different strategies that we see deployed in the financial world to chess, poker, and roulette. Rollette is basically luck and how the dice roll. If it's chess, it's a real strategy. And poker we'd say is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of strategy.  The first strategy that we see deployed a lot in our industry is market timing. Another strategy that we see is deciding how much money to convert from an IRA to a Roth IRA where the money is tax-free for the rest of your life. The other one that comes up, especially when we're doing our annual reviews, is deciding on when to retire. What's the date in the future that you're going to definitively say, okay, I'm done, I'm going to live off my portfolio. The last strategy we compare is going to be picking stocks. Which of these strategies is comparable to which game? Check out the episode to find out! This week’s hidden facts of finance At some point in late 2022, the 8 billionth human being will enter the world ushering in a new milestone for humanity. In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion people. 12% of bosses surveyed by Microsoft say workers are just as productive working remotely compared to 87% of workers who argue they are more productive. Sounds like bosses want you back in the office. The original handwritten lyrics for David Bowie's Starman have been sold to an unidentified Aussie bidder at auction for $224,000. That's a lot of money for a bunch of lyrics written on a piece of paper.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up? It's episode 98 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's officially apocalypse now! The FED will not relent with interest rates. They're going to be more hawkish than ever. It seems like bad news comes on the installment plan, Putin is looking to double down on his war in Ukraine. Is this the end? Is everything going to fall off a cliff? We're going to give you our view today, we're going to tell you exactly what we think you should be doing right now with your money to make sure that you're in the best position given so much uncertainty. You, awesome podcast listeners, have been asking a lot of questions so on the Tipping Point we are going to answer some of those. You can't miss episode 98.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The stock market isn’t a video game [1:08] Two things you can never discount [4:18] Being properly prepared for a difficult year [8:12] The Tipping Point [10:20] Having ETFs in a taxable account [11:31] The problem with a total market ETF [15:03] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37] The death of the consumer is greatly exaggerated There are two things that get discounted way too much when it comes to being an investor.  First is American business. Even this year, as we've seen supply chains that are a mess, inflation's been a mess but companies have been able to navigate it relatively well. We've seen more surprises in the positive, not the negative, when it comes to things like earnings.  The second thing that you can't discount is the American's ability to spend. I don't care what anybody says, if you look at retail sales last month, even with 8% inflation, retail sales were up. People were still spending and not just on necessities. They were going to restaurants, they were buying clothes. The bottom line is the death of the consumer is always greatly exaggerated. This week on the tipping point: Listener Q&A Our industry tends to come with plenty of cookie-cutter advice so we get a lot of questions because our expertise lies in the planning component of managing wealth. At PCM we focus on customized financial planning. Well, we have a new place where you can submit your questions and we'll answer them here right on the show. Head over to bebullish.com and ask us anything you'd like to hear us talk about on the show. Today we are answering two questions that have to do with ETFs. The first is from John asking if we recommend ETFs or exchange-traded funds with an expense of 0.25% or even 0.39%? The second question is from Brian who asks if the S&P is so highly weighted with FANG stocks, what's another good total market ETF to invest in during a period of rising rates? Listen now to hear our answers to these great questions! This week’s hidden facts of finance Since 1926 the S&P 500 was positive 71 of those 96 years. On a probability basis, the market goes up 74% of the time. That's pretty good odds. According to bank rate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a poultry 0.13%. Ouch. Meanwhile, one-year treasury bond pays over 4%. Pink Floyd's, The Dark Side Of The Moon, hit number one on the Billboard Album Chart for exactly one week in 1973. It has since gone on to sell 45 million copies and has spent 960 weeks on the charts. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 97 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are melting down. The fear is real, but could this fear go from fear to FOMO? We're going to discuss exactly what's going on. As we're recording this FedEx saw its stock drop 20%, and the CEO thinks that the world is going into a global recession. We might have a different point of view. We'll talk about that. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about some of the most significant strategy mistakes that Wall Street loves to push on you that you should avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What side of the rip of your face rally will you be on? [1:25] Is it light at the end of the tunnel or a train? [3:52] Time to load up on the municipal bond market [8:15] The Tipping Point [11:21] Are you taking actions that you'll regret forever? [14:09] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:53] Betting on a sure thing? Is it time to load up on the municipal bond market? The way these governments keep spending money on state, local, and federal levels it's only a matter of time before they try to jack up our tax rates again. We've got to look at the advantages of tax-free income.  First of all, you want to be certain that you have a portfolio with permits and definitions. We want to know what we're making and when our money comes due. But when you look at the equivalent yield of a tax-free bond right now, in some cases, depending on your state income tax, you're getting anywhere from a 5 - 8% return. How much return do you need to achieve all your lifetime goals? If you can do it with more certainty, why not?  This week on the tipping point: Strategy mistakes During times when it's very volatile and uncertain in the markets, like right now, there are a lot of strategies that Wall Street loves to sell you. We know from experience that they just don't work. We can't time the market and a lot of people tend to project the future based on their most recent experience. When there are all-time record highs, like the markets just had this past January, nobody wants to panic out. You only want to panic or time the market when the market's are down and you feel like it will only continue to get worse.  The problem is you end up taking actions that you'll regret forever. You wouldn't believe how many folks out there have liquidated their portfolio and gone into something like an annuity. We've been analyzing more annuities the past three months than ever. It's kind of like going back into the arms of an ex, it feels comfortable, it feels good, but the reality is you broke up for a reason. You're not going to get what you're looking for from the relationship! This week’s hidden facts of finance Wedbush Securities estimates that there are now a billion iPhones worldwide, 240 million of which are at least 3-1/2 years old. This may explain why Apple earnings are expected to continue creeping higher by single-digit percentages in the years ahead. We think of meme stocks as something unique, but the 1960s were called the Go-go 60s' for a reason. The Nifty 50, the glamor stocks, the concept stocks, the conglomerates, and the gunslinger fund managers who touted them were rock stars. When the Nifty 50 expired in the early 70s' they had sky-high valuations that rival anything we've seen today with Xerox trading at 49 times forward earnings, Avon at 65 times forward earnings, and Polaroid at 90 times forward earnings. History may not repeat, but markets are made up of people and they certainly do. Dividends have accounted for 40% of stock market returns since 1930 and 54% during decades when inflation has been high like today. When inflation has been high, the stocks that have increased their dividends the most have outperformed the overall market. Dividend payments help make the stock market returns less volatile. The average German household is paying nearly 13 times more for power than in January of 2020, or about $38,000 versus $3000. Wow. That's a huge jump in energy prices. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 96 of Payne Points of Wealth! Fool me once J. Powell, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you. The FED continues to talk tough when it comes to raising interest rates to combat inflation. Yet only a year ago, they said there was no reason to raise interest rates at all. Should you trust the FED? Is anything they're saying right now making sense? Should you believe it? Are we going into recession? Is inflation actually coming down? Well, we're gonna give you our viewpoint on what we think is happening right now in the economy, and what you need to be doing with your portfolio. We're also going to talk about unhealthy financial foods. The financial services industry loves to sell you lots of products that you probably don't need in your portfolio. We're gonna break that down for you. Check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... No one can know what’s unknowable [1:14] Energy’s impact on inflation [4:49] A huge % of your return comes from dividends [7:02] The Tipping Point [11:33] Added sugar [14:51] Trans fats [17:23] Personal trainer vs DIY [19:44] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:35] Negativity = Opportunity One thing we know for sure is that there's extreme pessimism out there right now. The negativity is so thick you can cut it with a knife. More than one client called this week and said Michael Burry, that guy from The Big Short, he's negative now, he's bearish and calling for a big bubble burst. Well, we get these guys through every cycle. Every cycle you have somebody who made a correct call or a lucky guess and they never have a second one. Better to be right once than never? We used to have magazine covers that would tell us how things are going. Back in the 70s' Businessweek was famous for its headline, The Death of Equities. They wrote an article in 1979 saying stocks would never go up again. That was the biggest bottom of Bob's career and the best buying opportunity he's ever seen in his life. You have the same type of situation right now.  This week on the tipping point: Unhealthy Financial Food In the financial world, there's a lot of fluff or, products and services you probably want to avoid at all costs. So I thought we could use the analogy of unhealthy financial food and talk about how there are unhealthy financial products that our listeners need to avoid at all costs.  Talk about empty calories, I was doing a proposal for a client and he brought a proposal that he'd received from one of the big banks. The proposal was 75 pages long. After going through it, I could only find about three pages worth of good information. The rest was just legalese and a bunch of what we call industry jargon. What you see in the financial services industry are these fancy products that add on all these bells and whistles. We know that a lot of annuities out there are guilty of this. A lot of these structured products are where you only get limited downside but you get X amount of the upside. They sound sexy. They sound like really good common sense products but when you start looking under the hood at how they work, you're not getting a good deal. It's actually bad for your financial life.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Annual global sales of industrial robots and factory automation are forecasted to more than double by 2027. Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clearly out. Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clear! While equities are still holding up relative to bonds, there have been no monthly flows into stocks over the past half year. Bonds hate inflation, equities hate recession and risk sentiment right now is appalling. Resources & People Mentioned Michael Burry article Death of Equities See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 95 of Payne Points of Wealth and FED chairman J. Powell has ruined everything! Just two weeks ago before recording this podcast, J Powell came out and basically said that the FED was going to continue to be hawkish with their monetary policy, and markets sold off precipitously. Is this the end? Is the punch bowl going away? Is the economy ruined? Well, we're going to talk about that on our podcast today, we're going to give you our viewpoint. And we're going to talk about critical questions you need to ask yourself if you're putting together your financial independence plan. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... How a great portfolio is like a great rental property? [2:22] Bulls or bears…it depends on the wind [4:43] Don’t double down on tech [6:58] The Tipping Point [11:56] Do people really spend less when they retire? [13:08] How will you fill the income gap? [15:43] Do you know what you own and how are your finances organized? [19:11] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:07] Keep your portfolio because the rents are going up! That eight-minute speech that J Powell gave certainly sent our clients into a tailspin. I was talking to a client last week and he asked if this was time to sell out of his portfolio. Of course not! The value of your house probably went down 10-15% in the last few months, are you selling that? Of course, the answer's no.  Owning a great portfolio is a lot like owning a rental property. With the dividends and interest, it pays you're going to collect rent until the market goes back up. Under our e-money portal, you can even pull in the value of your real estate from Zillow, so it's updated in real-time.  One client I spoke with has a lot of rental properties. He said that they were at all-time record highs and now they're down like 15% in some cases. I said well, why don't you panic out and sell? He said, why would I do that? I'm still collecting my rent and guess what I'm going to do next year? Raise it.  That's kind of how it works with the stock market. Stocks pay dividends. We just had global dividends hit an all-time record high at $545 billion. Think about that. We have increased dividends to the highest level ever and they're going to go up again next year!  This week on the tipping point: Critical questions We thought today we could talk about certain questions that you really want to ask yourself to make sure that you're on track to what we call that proverbial financial independence. We covered some critical questions that everyone needs to answer to make sure that they're on their path. Will you really spend less in retirement? SPOILER ALERT...Probably not! Where will your income come from and how will you get it? Do you know what you own and more importantly WHY you own it? How are your finances organized? Can you generate enough returns that it keeps abreast of inflation? If you haven’t asked yourself these questions in a while (or ever) then this is an episode you will want to listen to! Go check it out ASAP! This week’s hidden facts of finance Small investors matter for Tesla. About 46% of shares available for trading are held by non-institutional investors. The comparable number for Google is only 15%. Small investors basically drive that stock. American airlines group is planning to buy up to 20 supersonic jets to speed up air travel. Boom Supersonic is developing an airplane called Overture, which is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers. American Airlines said that supersonic flights from Los Angeles to Honolulu would take only three hours or as little as half the time of a standard jet. A high-tech portrait of Warren Buffet topped $75,000 in bidding. It shows a grid of letters over an image of the investor that lights up to spell out several of his famous quotes. Proceeds from the eBay auction, which concluded on Buffet's 92nd birthday, will go to one of his favorite charities Girls Inc. of Omaha. HBO's House of Dragons, the prequel of Game of Thrones racked up 10 million viewers on its debut, a record for the network. Demand was so great that thousands of US online viewers experienced crashes. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 94 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a special and very different episode for you today. We have a good friend Rich Antoniello, on the podcast. He's the former CEO and founder of Complex Media, a company that recently merged with BuzzFeed. Rich talks about the entrepreneurship journey, how he came from humble beginnings back in Brooklyn, and how that impacted his view of finances. He also talks about the state of the financial services industry in general. It's a great interview, Rich is a really charismatic guy, and he's got a pretty cool take on things. We think you're going like it. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Rich roots from humble beginnings [1:04] Having the guts to leave the guiled cage [8:36] The psychology of money [15:04] Sold not bought [25:00] What is the 3.0 version of what the market has become? [32:24] The impact of music [42:51] What was it like for Rich growing up in Brooklyn? Rich says it's not just the location, but you have to think about the cultural and familial side. Both of his parents were immigrants. His mom was one of 9 and his dad was one of 8. So literally big families, both Depression kids, and education wasn’t big on either side. Then you layer on the neighborhood. It's a beautiful place to live if you want to grow up around neighbors and neighborhoods where it's basically extended family. The trade-off was that you lived a very small life because your exposure was so narrow. There were a lot of cops, a lot of firemen, and union jobs. His dad was a UPS delivery guy. The aperture of what you're knowledgeable about and what you see is limited. There were very few executives and very few financial guys. Rich's exposure to business was trying read a Wall Street Journal which was not something readily available. But he thinks it was a great thing in that he learned foundational values. You couldn't operate within that world in any other way. These were good people, but the view of ambition and even understanding what a floor in a ceiling would be like from a career perspective was just nowhere. And he couldn't Google it back then either. The library had a whole bunch of old biographies. It was great to be able to go read about Rockefeller, but it wasn't exactly what Rich would call inspirational from the standpoint of understanding what a blueprint or a track would be from a realistic perspective for somebody like him.  Rich’s mind on money Obviously, Rich's financial circumstances have changed drastically from his humble roots in Brooklyn. But how has that changed his perception of money and how is it the same just because of his upbringing? The way we're brought up does color the way that we view our financial situation, financial security, and a lot of the decisions we make around money.  Rich explains how his perception has changed entirely but his behaviors have not come all the way along. He's massively aggressive and understands so much more and can see the things, but there's that little voice in the back of his head that always pulls him back from being as aggressive at the edge as he'd like to be. Check out the episode to hear him go deeper on this. Where is finance fundamentals 101 Rich thinks the lack of foundational, honest, educational, finance 101 is unbelievable. People don't like talking about it, but when somebody tries to sell them something they feel more comfortable going to Google than they do talking to somebody. They are looking for it, but nobody is offering that. We should all have had this type of education foundationally. Ideally, it happens at a family level, but most families don't have it to give. Rich says his own father couldn't help him think about the way his life has unfolded. That's not a knock on him, he just had no exposure, education, or the wherewithal to even think about any of those things. Why don't the leading platforms, especially the leading media platforms, provide that baseline level of understanding so that when you do talk about meme stocks and short squeezes you're not getting caught up in the hoopla but you're educated enough to look at that and fundamentally understand?  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we've heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we've seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We've never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that's what we are seeing today, employment going down. We're seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We're going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The surprises always come in the positive [2:42] This time next year [6:06] History teaches us everything [9:01] The Tipping Point [12:26] Begin with the end in mind [13:50] Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06] The Market is always right! Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that's growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month's readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it's time to start thinking about all the positive news that's going to be coming out going forward.  That's where markets trade, right? It's that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That's what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it's not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we're recording this, is only around 2.8%. That's not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market's always forward-looking. The market's always right. If the market's going up, the market's telling you that inflation is coming down, it's moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we've been hearing.  This week on the tipping point: Financial jigsaw puzzle We look at probably 50 portfolios a month so we know what all the strategies out there on Wall Street look like and we've found that most of you don't really have a financial independence plan. We want to talk about how having a jigsaw puzzle is comparable to building the right financial independence plan. You can create financial security, eventually, live off your assets, and depend on what you've saved over the years. If somebody throws away the cover of the box, you have no idea what that picture is supposed to look like, and trying to put those pieces together is near impossible. Unfortunately, that's how a lot of people do their financial planning. We think the reason a lot of people avoid putting together a financial plan is that they have a collection of investments, accounts every which way, and they just don't know how to go about it. It can be pretty overwhelming for people. That's why you need to have the cover of the box (a plan), to get a view of what you're doing. We need to begin with the end in mind. How much money are you going to need to live on? Just going through that whole exercise is so therapeutic and it puts everything into focus. This week’s hidden facts of finance It's hard to overstate the importance of Taiwan to the US and the global tech landscape. Most of the advanced chips required from military defense systems and corporate computing services are made in Taiwan. Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing to put that in perspective South Korea is number two with just 8%.  Cell phones are making their way into younger hands. Last year, 43% of 8 to 12-year-olds had their own handsets. That's up from 24% in 2015. Do you remember the $6 million man? Well the $6 million dollar man toy from 1977, because of inflation today, would be called the $24 million man. Monaco has been crowned the most expensive city in the world to buy property. A million dollars only buys you 157 square feet of prime property. That's expensive! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 92 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have finally rallied! Economic data, well… still not great. Earnings…not bad. But pay attention because the forward-looking markets are telling you about the future. We're going to explain why the market went up even in the light of huge inflation and geopolitical issues. Today on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about what Wall Street loves to sell you, the products, and the schemes that you need to avoid to make sure you're on your path to financial independence.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Embrace the gloom [1:05] You can’t be all or none [3:58] Never a bad time to be in the market [7:00] The Tipping Point [10:47] Question to ask yourself if the yield sounds too good to be true [12:32] The 2 out of 3 rule  Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06] There is NEVER a bad time to be in the market! Jerome Powell has done a great job. As we've said, week after week, he's had his foot on the break, not trying to kill the economy just trying to slow it down. Not every company came out with spectacular earnings, even though 70% of the companies that have reported have shown positive on their earnings. But remember they're ratcheting those earnings down a little bit since we've had all these negative headwinds to contend with.  We can't declare victory just yet, we still have inflation and a FED that's behind a curve. There is a chance that rates could go higher. That's why you have to be an investor and you have to make moves in this market. You can't be all or none because if you're sitting on the sidelines right now and you got out of the market, even if you just got out in January, you're wondering now what do I do as you're still making nothing on your cash! This week on the tipping point: Preposterous Products In our collective 75 years in the financial services industry at our firm PCM, we analyzed close to like 50 portfolios a month. We know what everyone is doing out there and we find it shocking that in our industry a lot of the products that are sold are great for the firm that sold them and great for the commission to the broker that sold them but they're not necessarily the best place for you to put your money. There is a lot of buyer beware action out there. Here are a few of the top products to look out for: Anything with a fancy, shiny sales brochure or proposal. If it’s got really great graphics and high falutin terms while making promises of fantastic returns there is probably a trap in the fine print.  Another investment that gets sold, not bought, on Wall Street are insurance products like annuities. They give you a guaranteed income for life, protect your principle, and all this stuff sounds really good. Ask about the return over the last 10 years and see if you get a real answer.  Check out the episode to hear us explain why! This week’s hidden facts of finance More than half of generation Z adults between 18 and 25 are already investors with 26% invested in individual stocks. This would make them more financially active than any previous generation at their age. Bill Gates, the largest private owner of US farmland, said on social media that he is going to be investing in more farmland. Microsoft to micro-greens and it's reported that he's making almost 700 million a year on the rents on these farms. Median home prices in the US went from $275,000 to $400,000 in three years. That's more than a 15% compounded annual growth rate in just three years. New York rents set records last quarter. In much of Manhattan and Brooklyn median asking prices jumped 40% or more from 2021. In Manhattan, the biggest rise was in the area covering Soho, Little Italy, and Nolita. The median rent is up 51% at $4,825. It's painful here in the village.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 91 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're getting mixed emotions from the economy in the stock market as we're in the midst of earning season. Surprise, surprise earnings are not looking as bad as Wall Street is wanting you to believe. We're going to break it down and give you our view on what's going on with earnings right now. What we see right now with the economy, the labor market, inflationary pressure, everything everyone's talking about, we're going to give you the Payne view.  On the Tipping Point, we have guest Aaron Dessen, a Certified Financial Planner™ at Payne Capital Management, and we're going to give you a financial independence pop quiz! Can you answer these questions? Are you on your path to financial independence or do you need some help? You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Could the lows be behind us already? [2:32] What the FED is doing is working [5:55] What happened the last time we saw high bond allocations [8:21] The Tipping Point [12:43] Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle? [13:50] What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio? [16:12] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22] Are the lows already behind us? Jeremy Siegel is a great economist and a professor of finance at Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a big fan of Jerome Powell and the federal reserve and has been rooting them on to raise interest rates. He believes that they will hike 75 bits next week. Jeremy also thinks that they're going to start paying attention to the slowdown in the economy and the lows could absolutely be behind us already. Now he doesn't KNOW, but again, he's a smart man and he knows that J Powell is looking at all the indicators. Who knows, we might have seen peak inflation.  It was indicative last week when we had really good earnings on a Tuesday and markets went up over 700 points in one day! It's just a reminder the market action can change on a dime. Your bigger risk here is that we get good news and suddenly you get a huge melt-up in the market. This is why you don't market time because when that happens if you're not already invested, you miss the boat. This week on the tipping point: Can you answer these questions? The first question we usually ask people who walk into our firm is “Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle?” In our experience, most people really have no idea. It's not that hard to figure out. You’ll need to know what your take-home income is and then we can figure out what your rate of savings is and kind of back into it from there. When we get to that number most people are pretty surprised.  This leads to the question “What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio?” What is it that takes people from feeling completely blind about what they’re doing to feeling comfortable and confident that they have a plan in place so they can sleep at night? The only way to figure that out is by doing a comprehensive financial plan. This brings us right back to the need to have an answer for question number one. This week’s hidden facts of finance When it comes to food inflation margin experienced the largest percentage price increase. The spread is 34.5% more expensive than it was last June and its price leaped up 7% from May to June alone.  About 60% of working Americans say that the definition of what's considered "professional" has changed since the start of the pandemic. Keeping a conservative appearance seems to be losing popularity.  An NFT (non-fungible token) by Digital artist Pak, a pseudonymous artist (or artist collective), called The Merge is the most expensive NFT ever sold. It sold for 91.8 million. Cassettes are back! In the US sales have seen sharp gains in recent years. The format nearly doubled from 173,000 units sold in 2020 to 343,000 units sold last year and are already at 215,000 units sold in 2022, on pace to make it another record year. I don't get it.  Resources & People Mentioned Aaron Dessen works closely with clients providing personalized service and advice, focusing on goals-based investing and comprehensive financial planning for individuals, families, and businesses. See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 90 of Payne Points of Wealth! Who once said there ain't no time for the summertime blues? Well, guess what? The stock market didn't get the memo, we're still seeing tremendous volatility in stocks right now. Earnings season is upon us and it could be the most critical earning season of the year and give us a preview into what's going to happen in the economy the rest of the year. Of course, we're going to give you our thoughts today on how you should position your portfolio right now to protect yourself but grow your money. On the Tipping Point, we're going to give you some practical tips and steps to ensure you're going to be financially independent.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Businesses are showing no signs of recession but banks are prepping [1:07] Uncertainty is high. Are we going over a cliff? [4:19] How can low markets be in the best interest of your portfolio? [6:17] The Tipping Point [8:55] Are you taking the appropriate amount of risk? [10:30] Looking under the hood to find out what risk you’re really taking [13:33] Having a holistic plan [15:44] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:39] Perhaps this is in my best interest An upset client called worried about what's going on with the world and she was concerned about her portfolio. This is normal and something we hear often. She asked if we thought it would be a good time for her to go to cash? Of course, our answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT! We informed her that that would hurt her entire plan.  She wanted to know why. We went on to explain that more than half of her returns come just from those interest and dividends and that she needed to remember that we're reinvesting that at low, low prices. She then says, so this actually could be a good thing for me? We couldn't congratulate that client more. She's absolutely right and there’s nothing better than the feeling you get when a client gets it! This week on the tipping point: Are you taking the appropriate risk? We have found that the biggest question we get from people who come to us whether they're referred or they come knocking on our door, is "Am I taking enough risk to achieve my goals, or am I taking more risk than necessary?" And what we've found with most investors is they take way more risk than necessary, especially when they're within three years of achieving their retirement goals. The problem is you don't realize you're taking that risk until the market goes down.  How would you even know the risk you're taking if you have multiple accounts? You'd probably think you were diversified because you have different accounts. The problem is when you look under the hood and you look at all those accounts together, a lot of that money is all concentrated in the same place and you probably don't even know it. You're thinking I have lots of accounts, lots of different investments. I'm probably diversified and you're wrong. You're not diversified. You know, it really pays to know how all your money is allocated together.  This week’s hidden facts of finance During the 12 US recessions since WWII the median decline in dividends paid by S&P 500 companies was just 1% in 5 of those recessions, 1949, 74, 80, 81, and 90 there was absolutely no decline. Even in the sharpest and deepest recession in modern history, S&P dividends only fell by 3%. Dividends are a great inflation hedge.  During the Great Inflation from 1968 to 1983, the consumer price index surged 186% or 7.3% annually over 15 years. Exacerbated by two oil crises that also slowed the economy and increased unemployment. This painful condition was dubbed stagflation.  A one-bedroom apartment in New York City has been leased for $5,000 a month. That 600 square feet. Whoever said New York city was dead was clearly wrong.  The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF has dropped 24% in 2022, worse than the S&P's 18% decline as this recording. Momentum is among the worst performing factors this year trailing only growth. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 89 of Payne Points of Wealth. Recession, no recession? I know you're tired of talking about it. We’re tired of talking about it. The media can't stop talking about it. Well, we're going to give you our views today. The employment numbers were hot last week, red hot, we've got over 11 million jobs available in this country and only 5 million people looking. We're suspicious about this recession and we'll talk about why in this episode. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the hard truths of financial independence that you're going to have to grapple with, that you will have to deal with if you want to be financially free. Check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The most highly anticipated recession in history [1:05] Is it a recession or a slow down? [4:26] The Tipping Point [8:27] How we know when someone has a bad investment strategy [10:10] Now is the time to be proactive [13:17] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03] The problem with the media The problem with the media is that you get this barrage of negative news and it discounts the fact that there are a lot of positives out there. Look at earnings, we've got earning seasons upon us, and for all intent and purposes, it's probably going to be pretty good. You're going to have some revisions downward for some companies, but for the most part, the projections looking out for the rest of the year should be pretty solid.  We've got earnings growth, loan employment, and Americans sitting on their highest net worth ever, meanwhile, all we can hear about is how we're having this slowdown, how we're about to fall off a cliff. It just doesn't jive, with what it actually happening right now in the economy. And I think many people will regret it later, not taking advantage of the uncertainty right now. This uncertainty is your best friend as an investor and when you look back, these are always your best opportunities.  This week on the tipping point: No way around uncertainty When we're helping people achieve their path to financial independence, there's no way to get around uncertainty. We wish we could make it so easy and all the variables could just be taken out of the equation but part of financial independence and part of financial freedom is you have to become somewhat comfortable with the fact that things are always a little uncertain. That's why it's so critical to have a process-driven strategy when investing your money versus an event-driven strategy. The market is counterintuitive, if you depend on what the Federal Reserve is going to do next the market has already anticipated that. You're going to have a hard time making investment decisions based on reacting all the time to what's going on. If you're process driven, it gives you the ability to be unemotional and to be a little more pragmatic when it comes to strategy.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Hendrik Bessembinder performed a study on every stock on the New York stock exchange in NASDAQ, going back to 1926. He found that 86 stocks accounted for roughly half of the market's total return over 90 years! The age of peak TV is ending a TV director who made 4 million a year now gets 750,000 a year. TV budgets have dropped more than 30%. Top Gun is making 2022 a top year for both Tom Cruise and Paramount pictures. Top Gun Maverick passed 1 billion in global ticket sales making it the highest-grossing film ever for Tom Cruise and the biggest movie for the studio since Transformers Age of Extinction in 2014. Bridgewater's flagship hedge fund gained 32% for the first half of the year in their firm's Pure Alpha II fund, which is pretty impressive. The fund has returned 11.4% annualized since its inception in 1991, which is really not that impressive when you consider you could have just bought the S&P 500, which returned 10.6% since 1991. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 88 of Payne Points of Wealth, and we’ve finished the year's first half. It's been the worst start of a year for the S&P 500 since 1970 as markets are down nearly 20%. In the meantime, inflation remains high. The Fed is going to continue to tighten its monetary policy. What does this all mean for the second half of the year? Well, the answer may surprise you and we're going to break it down for you today. On the Tipping Point today, since we're just passing the 4th of July weekend, we're going to talk about financial independence. What do you need to be independent of to be financially independent? We're going to talk about how to give you your path to financial freedom the right way. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The downside of cooling off the economy [1:25] Don’t wait for opportunity to be gone [3:56] Picking on Wall Street [7:42] The Tipping Point [10:07] Scared money never wins [14:06] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:50] Look for the positives among the negative news The financial media grabs onto every negative headline. They take everything that's bad and exacerbated by making it sound even worse. China, for example, is coming out of its COVID shutdown instead of focusing on the fact that it's going to help the supply chain disruptions which will help the global economy they look for ways to scare people. Saying things like that demand will push oil to $200 a barrel.  They take every bit of news and they spin it negatively and of course, when your portfolio's down, your statement's down, you tend to start to view those headlines with a little more attention than you normally would. It forces you to think negatively and that's where you must be careful. You have to remember the values are better now than they were in the last six months. You have bond yields that are attractive. There's a lot of opportunity being created but the news media wants you to think that it will never get better.  This week on the tipping point: What do you want to be free FROM? We just celebrated the 4th of July and in the spirit of the independence weekend, let's talk about financial freedom and what we want to be free FROM to indeed be financially independent. One of the biggest things we want to be independent of is the government. You want to maximize your Social Security from them but you want to pay the least amount of tax possible. It blows our minds at how many tax inefficient portfolios we review almost daily. Within the confines of the law, there are so many little tweaks you can make to your portfolio. It's always little tweaks and not big sweeping changes that have a dramatic impact on your portfolio.  Independence from family is another thing we want to celebrate on the 4th of July. Not that you don't want your kids around, but you don't want to be sleeping on your kid's couch in your golden years. So you want to be certain that you have a plan in place that accounts not just for the income you need, but for the inflation that we're seeing in this current economy.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Paul McCartney's total reported career growth has now surpassed the billion dollar mark making him one of 11 artists to surpass the mark in box scores 30+ year history. TikTok has surged to a billion plus global users. It raked in almost 4 billion last year in 2021, mostly from ads, and has projected to hit 12 billion this year.  It's been a dreadful first half of the year for speculative grade debt bond funds, AKA junk bonds. With the popular iShares iBoxx high yield corporate bond exchange traded funds suffering and negative. Total 13% negative return this year through June 22nd. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 87 of Payne Points of Wealth and the S & P 500 has had the worst start of the year since 1970 and there's a lot to be concerned about. We've got war in Eastern Europe, we've got interest rates going up, we have inflation at the highest it’s been in literally 40 years. In addition to that, we have China in somewhat of a lockdown. We've got commodity prices starting to come down. What does it all mean? Well, we're going to break it down today. We're going to tell you exactly what we think about the economy, the market. Markets are down over 20% so we're going to talk about a bear market survival guide. Do you have what it takes to survive this bear market? Listen and find out!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Clarity is not a friend of the investor [1:43] The Fed is doing a good job [4:11] When you make the big money in your portfolio [7:17] The Tipping Point [9:14] How quickly can you turn your investments to cash? [11:57] Avoid the sexy pitch [14:11] Are you obsessed with dividend-yielding stock? [16:11] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:27] You can't get good prices with good news The only thing certain about this market is uncertainty. We have recession fears, inflation, hysteria, interest rate concerns, and a federal reserve that told us that the inflation rate was transitory. Now they're telling us we'll tell you when it's done going up and we'll be able to give you a nice soft landing. Sounds like we're gonna have a real bumpy landing! The point is when you get markets that go down this quickly and this hard, generally, there's a snap-back rally at some point, and you don't want to be on the sidelines when that happens. The way that markets work, and we talk about this a lot, they're forward-looking. The market will most likely recover way before the news gets better. A popular mentality is "Let me just wait and see. Are we in a recession yet? Let's get some clarity." Well, clarity is not your friend when it comes to investing. When the uncertainty is high and we have no idea what's going to happen, that's when you get the best pricing. You can't get good prices with good news. So this bad news is a huge advantage, as you're trying to allocate capital right now, you've gotta embrace the uncertainty. This week on the tipping point: Bear market survival guide While it may feel prudent to take action during a bear market decline and sell out of your portfolio in our experience, the long-term results can be disastrous. Selling when prices are down will lead to permanent losses and then you miss the inevitable big recovery rally, which typically comes out of nowhere. Therefore, keeping your head during these extreme periods of volatility is critical to achieving your long-term financial goals. I thought we could discuss our firm's bear market survival guide.  The number one thing you should always do is reassess your portfolio allocation, especially when you're in volatile times. We tend to let our winners run and ignore our losers so over time you get out of balance. If you're not constantly rebalancing your portfolio with cash flow or with some type of systematic rebalancing annually, you're most likely out of whack right now and the market is not very forgiving guys. It reminds you when you're outta whack. This week’s hidden facts of finance US Federal regulators say 46,000 people have reported losing $1 billion in the Crypto Market in scams since January of this past year. The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022. The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022. Thanks to the Stranger Things series on Netflix, Kate Bush has broken three UK chart records with the resurgence of "Running Up That Hill" which last peaked on the charts at #3 in 1985!  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 86 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling. We're in an official bear market now in the S & P 500. NASDAQ is down over 30%. The headlines get direr by the day. War continues in Eastern Europe. And Bitcoin, we warned you about Bitcoin, is melting down. Well, we're gonna break it all down for you today. We have a special guest on the show today, Lee Robinson, co-founder, and CIO of Altana Wealth, an asset management firm running all different hedge fund strategies. He predicted the credit crisis between 2007 and 2009. He's seen a lot of bull and bubble bursts, written a great book called "The Gathering Storm", has a BA in mathematics from Cambridge University, and he is a good friend of Ryan's. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Lee’s outlook on the current economic market [1:23] There’s neven been an empire that hasn’t failed [5:00] One piece of advice as an investor [10:01] The Tipping Point [11:20] The 80% lie [11:49] The income for life guarantee [14:19] If it ain’t broke don’t fix it [18:04] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:26] Advice from Lee Robinson In this episode, we talked with Lee Robinson. We asked him if he could share only one piece of advice, something that he's learned over the years that he could impart on the rest of us, what would it be? This is what he has to say. "I think the biggest mistake that I see in finance is that people cannot work from forward back to the present. They get panicked, they see a company that has a profit warning because it couldn't satisfy an order. Well, those orders are still going to come, it's still a good business. So there's a lot of short-term emotion and not enough rational thought about long-term. And I think if you're investing, I'm not talking about trading. Traders are different people. They can buy high and sell higher. They can sell low and it goes lower. But as an investor—trust, try, and think forward. When you're in a pandemic and Carnival is not allowed to do any cruises, does that mean that cruising is over forever and that business is worth zero? Probably not. So I do think sometimes investors need to think I am investing for the long run. What does this business look like in the long run? And then think, well, is it too expensive today, rather than thinking I'm buying it today can it go up tomorrow? So I think investing is something people don't understand. They confuse it with trading. This week on the tipping point: Financial untruths For anyone who's getting close to being financially independent or going into retirement, there is this myth that you only need 80% of what you need when you're working when you're retired.  We know that's just not true. Not only do you spend a hundred percent of what you spend today, in the first few years of retirement, you're not going to work anymore but you are going traveling, you're spending more time with your kids and your grandkids you’ll probably spend close to 120%. That's why it's so critical to have a strategy where you're updating your financial plan on a systematic basis. Our e-money portal because it updates everything in real time so it's easy for us to do a planning session if someone decides to take a longer vacation, buy This week’s hidden facts of finance A group led by Walmart heir Robert Walton agreed to buy the Denver Broncos for 4.65 billion, a record in US pro sports. Apple generates more revenue than any other American company. This year, the total should be around 400 billion. To boost revenue by 10% Apple needs to find 40 billion in additional sales. Growth becomes harder the bigger you become. Worker swipe-ins at office buildings were recently in the 30 to 40% range in major markets, such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It was above 50% in the sunbelt markets like Dallas and Houston. People are not back to the office in droves yet. US inflation is 48th highest on the list of 111 countries. Last year we were ranked 28th out of 116. countries. Inflation is a global phenomenon, not a US phenomenon.  Resources & People Mentioned Special guest Lee Robinson from Altana Wealth See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify