Ellen Correia Golay is an advisor in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the US Treasury market. She also helped lead an interagency working group report and a recent conference on the Treasury market. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these and other Treasury-related developments. Ellen and David also discuss her career journey and role at the New York Fed, the current and future challenges in the Treasury Market, necessary areas for reform, and more.   DISCLAIMER: Ellen Correia Golay’s views are her own, and they do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Ellen’s LinkedIn profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Enhancing the Resilience of the U.S. Treasury Market: 2024 Staff Progress Report* by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG)   *The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference* — An event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:09) – Ellen’s Career Journey and Role at the New York Fed   (00:17:13) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market   (00:20:38) – Current and Future Challenges in the Treasury Market   (00:29:54) – How Would Central Clearing Impact the Fed and the Treasury Market?   (00:31:47) – Explaining the Treasury Department Buyback Program   (00:36:12) – Commencement of Data Dissemination on Individual Nominal Coupon Treasury Transactions   (00:38:29) – Requiring the Reporting of Non-Centrally Cleared Bilateral Repos   (00:41:26) – The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference   (00:43:50) – Future Areas for Reform in the Treasury Market   (00:46:43) – Outro

Emil Verner is an associate professor of finance at MIT Sloan and is a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Emil has written widely on financial stability, banking panics, and credit booms, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these issues. Specifically, David and Emil also discuss the causes and policy implications of bank failures, the shortcomings of the Diamond-Dybvig model of bank runs, how financial crises spur the rise of populism, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Emil’s Twitter: @EmilVerner Emil’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Failing Banks* by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner   *Banking Crises Without Panics* by Matthew Baron, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong   *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debor Conflict, and Populism* by Gyozo Gyongyosi and Emil Verner   *Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit* by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber   *Going to Extremes: Politics After Financial Crises, 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:45) – Why Do We Care About Banking Panics and Financial Stability?   (00:05:42) – Breaking Down the Causes of Bank Failures and its Policy Implications   (00:13:38) – Exploring the Historical Banking Data   (00:15:59) – *Failing Banks*: Key Findings and Takeaways   (00:24:00) – *Banking Crises Without Panics*   (00:28:05) – Responding to the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Bank Runs   (00:33:29) – Applying the Bank Solvency Story to the Great Financial Crisis   (00:36:16) – The Impact of Credit Booms   (00:40:56) – What Are the Necessary Policy Prescriptions?   (00:43:08) – Why is Diamond-Dybvig So Popular?   (00:47:01) – *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Populism*   (00:52:55) – How Do We Stem the Tide of Populism in the Future?   (00:54:36) – Outro

Loretta Mester was president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from 2014 through June of 2024, and she is a 39-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Loretta is also currently an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time as Fed president and a recent paper she delivered on the Fed’s operating system. David and Loretta also discuss the ongoing battle against inflation, what to expect from the upcoming Fed framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Loretta’s Cleveland Fed profile Loretta’s Wharton profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Fed’s Ample Reserves Monetary Policy Operating Framework: It Isn’t as Simple as it Looks* – Remarks by Loretta Mester for the Panel on The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Evolution from Free Reserves to the Corridor and Floor Systems at the Shadow Open Market Committee 50th Anniversary Conference   *Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)* by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:18) – Loretta’s Career Path and Tenure at the Cleveland Fed   (00:10:42) – The Ongoing Battle Against Inflation   (00:17:53) – Evaluating FAIT and What to Expect from the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review   (00:26:03) – Corridor vs. Floor: The Evolution of the Fed’s Operating System and its Policy Implications   (00:41:31) – Estimating the Demand for Bank Reserves   (00:45:57) – Addressing Over-reliance on the Fed in the Interbank Market   (00:52:45) – Loretta’s Thoughts on Central Clearing and Increased Use of the Discount Window   (00:55:23) – Outro

Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution’s recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more.   DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Jon’s podcast: Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Jon’s Twitter: @Jon_Hartley_ Jon’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution   *The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle: Testing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Across Countries and Time* by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott   *Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification from U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements* by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon   *The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan   *The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-scale Historical Experiment* by Nuno Palma   *Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold* by Francois Velde   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Bumper   (00:00:41) – Intro   (00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee   (00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor?   (00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up?   (00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy   (00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter?   (00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth   (00:59:41) – Outro

Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Tara’s Twitter: @TaraSinc Tara’s website Tara’s GWU profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference   *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting   *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser   *The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn   *Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market* by Michael Kiley   *Did the Federal Reserve’s 2020 Policy Framework Limit Its Response to Inflation? Evidence and Implications for the Framework Review* by Christina Romer and David Romer   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department   (00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database   (00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data   (00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches*   (00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges   (00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch*   (00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed’s Framework   (00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed’s Broad and Inclusive Goal   (00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future?   (00:56:13) – Outro

Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Joseph’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joseph’s PIIE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?* by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard   *Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era* by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge   (00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge   (00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature   (00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies*   (00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War*   (00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting?   (00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP   (00:57:40) – Outro

Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Emilio’s Twitter: @ocampo_emilio Emilio’s Substack Emilio’s UCEMA profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo   *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky   *Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market is Thriving* by Ryan Dube   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation   (00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance   (00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie*   (00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina   (00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform   (00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases   (00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina   (00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward   (00:58:48) – Outro

Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jonathon’s Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon’s website Jonathon’s LSE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson   *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler   *Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star* by Macro Musings   *The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation* by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation   (00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs*   (00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications   (00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned?   (00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach*   (00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives   (00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation   (00:55:09) – Outro

Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Thomas’s website Thomas’s Twitter: @td_econ   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data* by Thomas Drechsel   *Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach* by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel   *Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence* by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers   *Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs* by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez   *Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Indentifcation with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung   *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence?   (00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance   (00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed   (00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results   (00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation   (00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results   (00:59:45) – Outro

Matthew Pines is the director of intelligence for SentinelOne Strategic Advisory Group and is a veteran of the national security world. Matthew is also the author of several papers on cryptocurrencies and their implications for national security, including a recent one titled, *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin,* and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these linkages. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, the problems with our current network approach to national security, how digital currency can enhance dollar dominance worldwide, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Matthew’s Twitter: @matthew_pines Matthew’s Bitcoin Policy Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin* by Matthew Pines   *National Security in the Digital Age: Bitcoin as a Tool for Modern Statecraft* by authors Matthew Pines, Ben Kincaid, Robert Malka, James McGinniss, Lee Bratcher, Pierre Rochard, Lindsey Daley, Gabriel Royal, Thomas Wood, Ian Gaines, and Kyle Schneps   *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* by Paul Tucker   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:35) – Matthew’s Journey into the National Security Space   (00:07:56) – Evaluating the Current Level of Defense Expenditures   (00:12:17) – An Executive Summary of *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin*   (00:16:11) – Problems with Our Current Network Approach to National Security   (00:26:24) – The Intersection of Monetary Policy and National Security   (00:29:55) – How Can Digital Currency Enhance Dollar Dominance Across the Globe?   (00:38:32) – Breaking Down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal and Its Implications   (00:48:13) – The National Defense Authorization Act and the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act: Basics and Implications   (00:57:29) – Outro

Travis Hill is the Vice Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about discount window and bank liquidity, receivership funding, and the tokenization of financial assets. Specifically, David and Travis also discuss the push for pre-positioning at the discount window, how the FDIC funds receiverships, the impact of tokenization on the future of banking, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Travis’s FDIC profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Reflections on Bank Regulatory and Resolution Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the American Enterprise Institute   *Banking’s Next Chapter? Remarks on Tokenization and Other Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the Mercatus Center   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:36) – The Unique Role of the FDIC and the Vice Chair   (00:10:58) – The Push for Pre-Positioning at the Discount Window   (00:20:19) – Addressing the Current Issues Relating to the Discount Window   (00:28:44) – How Does the FDIC Fund Receiverships?   (00:35:41) – Breaking Down the Federal Financing Bank   (00:40:10) – Discount Window Stigma and Uncollateralized Fed Funding   (00:45:44) – Tokenization and Its Impact on the Future of Banking and Cross-Border Payments   (00:54:40) – Outro

Catherine Pakaluk is an Associate Professor of Social Research and Economic Thought at the Bush School of Business at the Catholic University of America. Catherine is also the author of a new book titled, *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth,* and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Catherine and David also specifically discuss the facts of demographic decline, the women who are pushing back against this trend, its broader implications for the economy and society, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Catherine’s Twitter: @CRPakaluk Catherine’s website Catherine’s CUA profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth* by Catherine Pakaluk   *Why Americans Aren’t Having Babies* by Rachel Wolfe   *No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children* by Paul Morland   *Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage* by Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:16) – *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth*   (00:08:30) – The Facts of Demographic Decline   (00:12:48) – The Implications of Demographic Decline   (00:20:28) – Breaking Down the “Chain of Infinity”   (00:23:15) – The Forces Driving Demographic Decline   (00:32:18) – The Influence and Impact of Paul Ehrlich   (00:38:16) – The Motivation and Background for *Hannah’s Children*   (00:43:29) – Why Are Women Having Larger Families?   (00:52:18) – Exploring Pronatal Policy Recommendations   (00:57:03) – Outro

Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini   *Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson   *Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*   (00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others   (00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar   (00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?   (00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto   (00:49:19) – Outro

Carola Binder is an associate professor of civic leadership and economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and she is the author of a new book titled, *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy.* Carola is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about this book and some recent work she has done on the Fed’s framework review. David and Carola specifically discuss the history of inflation in the US, the advantages of adopting a nominal GDP targeting regime, what to expect from the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder   *Why Do We Dislike Inflation?* by Stefanie Stantcheva   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:42) – *Nominal GDP Targeting: Lessons from Recent History*   (00:12:18) – NGDP Level Targeting: Looking Through Supply Shocks and Policy Communication   (00:17:16) – *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy*   (00:21:44) – The History of Inflation and Deflation in the US   (00:30:30) – Key Lessons from the Revolutionary War and Civil War Periods   (00:35:37) – The Impact of Price Controls During World War II   (00:40:42) – The Emergence of Price Stability: From the Great Inflation Period to the Present   (00:46:24) – The Direction of the Fed’s Framework Review   (00:49:22) – Outro

Samim Ghamami is an economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where he has been working on reforming the US Treasury market, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these efforts. Samim and David also discuss the long run path of interest rates, the basics of the Treasury market, Samim’s outlook for Treasury market reform, and much more.   DISCLAIMER: Samim’s views are his own and do not represent those of his SEC colleagues, the commissioners, or the Chair.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Samim’s Twitter: @GhamamiSamim Samim’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:00:58) – Samim’s Journey to the SEC   (00:05:47) – Breaking Down the Size and Composition of the Treasury Market   (00:10:25) – Explaining the Long Run Path of Interest Rates   (00:18:48) – The Key Segments of the Treasury Market   (00:28:25) – Central Clearing as a Treasury Market Reform   (00:34:40) – Picking the Most Effective Treasury Market Reform   (00:37:39) – Samim’s Future Outlook for Other Treasury Market Reforms   (00:43:46) – Addressing Risk Concentration Concerns   (00:48:26) – Outro

Kyla Scanlon is the founder of Bread, a financial education company where she brings economics to a wide and often younger audience, and is also the author of the book, *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.* Kyla joins David on Macro Musings to talk about a wide range of economic issues, including the case nominal GDP targeting, the basics of the “Vibecession” and the vibe economy, how to further build American wealth, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Kyla’s Twitter: @kylascan Kyla’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work* by Kyla Scanlon   *Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:06) – Kyla’s Academic and Professional Path   (00:15:20) – Flipping the Macro Musings Script: David’s NGDP Targeting Pitch   (00:30:52) – Breaking Down the “Vibecession” and the Vibe Economy   (00:34:41) – The Housing Side of a Vibe Economy   (00:38:54) – The Path to Growing American Wealth   (00:41:40) – The Issue of Population Growth   (00:44:15) – Gen Z’s Interest in Macroeconomics   (00:47:52) – How Should We Think About Labor Market Indicators?   (00:50:51) – Outro

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is the Senior Vice President and the Senior Advisor to the President of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan. Sam is a longtime veteran of the Federal Reserve System and has also previously served at the Minneapolis and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. Sam joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Treasury market resiliency issues, the floor system, the Friedman Rule, bank deposits, the monetary policy implications of labor migration across the United States, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Sam’s Dallas Fed profile Sam’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Customer Settlement Risk Externality at US Securities Central Counterparties* by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability* by Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Joshua Younger   *Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration* by Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *Is a Treasury Central Clearing Mandate the Path to Increased Central Clearing?* by Marta Chaffee and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl   *The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing* by Michael Fleming and Frank Keane   *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule* - A speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the 2023 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:31) – Sam’s Wide-Ranging Career Path   (00:11:08) – The Customer Settlement Risk Externality   (00:14:30) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market   (00:18:38) – The Importance and Effectiveness of Central Clearing   (00:26:50) – The History and Role of FICC   (00:32:27) – All-to-all Trades as a Path to Reforming the Treasury Market   (00:36:52) – The Future Timeline for Central Clearing   (00:39:07) – *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule*   (00:46:52) – *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability*   (00:52:21) – The Importance of Labor Migration for Monetary Policy   (00:59:42) – Outro

Nicholas Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, a fellow at the Human Rights Foundation, and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Nick rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a new book he has authored titled, *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money.* Specifically, Nicholas and David discuss the history of CBDCs, their challenges and drawbacks, Nick’s recommendations for the future, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Nick’s Twitter: @EconWithNick Nick’s Cato profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money* by Nicholas Anthony   *Nicholas Anthony on the Current Prospects and Legislative Developments Surrounding CBDC* by Macro Musings   *Macroeconomic Modelling of CBDC: A Critical Review* by Ulrich Bindseil and Richard Senner   *Ulrich Bindseil on Central Bank Operating Systems* by Macro Musings   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:50) – The Future Prospects of CBDC: From Congress to the White House   (00:07:35) – The History of CBDCs   (00:11:19) – Breaking Down the Three Types of CBDCs   (00:17:22) – The Challenges and Drawbacks of CBDCs   (00:25:42) – The Buffer Between CBDCs and Privacy   (00:31:00) – Wholesale CBDCs, Real-time Payments, and Cross-border Payments   (00:41:06) – The Potential Destabilizing Effects of CBDCs   (00:46:12) – The Pros and Cons of a CBDC for the Fed   (00:53:23) – Responding to Pro-CBDC Arguments   (00:59:05) – Recommendations for the Future of CBDCs   (01:01:92) – Outro

James Bullard was the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 2008 to 2023, and he is currently the dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University. James is also a previous guest of the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, FAIT, and the upcoming Fed framework review. Specifically, James and David also discuss how to improve the FOMC’s economic reporting, the case for implementing nominal GDP targeting, the future of R-star, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   James’s St. Louis Fed bio James’s Purdue University profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *R-Star Wars: The Phantom Menace* - A presentation by James Bullard at the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference   *Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks* by Yan Bai, Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, and Kjetil Storesletten   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:10) – Defining the St. Louis Fed and Bullard’s Fed Tenure   (00:09:58) – Comparing FAIT and Nominal GDP Targeting   (00:15:55) – Assessing the Current FAIT Framework   (00:25:37) – Evaluating the Recent V-Shaped Recovery   (00:29:28) – What to Expect from the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:33:31) – Improving the FOMC’s Economic Reporting   (00:37:46) – The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting   (00:50:24) – The Future of R-Star   (00:53:52) – Outro

Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the tools of financial statecraft, how they have evolved over the years, and their implications for digital currencies moving forward. Specifically, David and Josh also discuss how financial statecraft would be applied to a possible conflict with China, the current state of the cross-border payments system, the future of wholesale CBDC in the US, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Josh’s Twitter: @joshualipsky Josh’s Atlantic Council profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Sanctioning China in a Taiwan Crisis: Scenarios and Risks* by Charlie Vest, Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchaud, Josh Lipsky, Kimberly Donovan, Charles Lichfield, and Niels Graham.   *The Geopolitical Imperative to Upgrade the Dollar* by Jordan Bleicher and Josh Lipsky   *Stablecoins and National Security: Learning the Lessons of Eurodollars* by Timothy Massad   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:02) – The Russia Sanctions as an Example of Financial Statecraft   (00:10:14) – The Financing of the Russia-Ukraine War   (00:14:08) – The Delicacy of Legal Precedents and the REPO Act   (00:19:10) – Breaking Down the Tools of Financial Statecraft   (00:22:08) – Applying Financial Statecraft to a Possible China Conflict   (00:28:52) – Cross-border Payments and the Global Status of the US Dollar   (00:34:05) – Breaking Down the Development and Geopolitical Importance of mBridge   (00:38:34) – The Future and Importance of Wholesale CBDC in the US   (00:43:28) – Private Sector Alternatives to CBDCs   (00:45:05) – Where is the CBDC Conversation Headed?   (00:49:25) – Closing Thoughts: The 80th Anniversary of Bretton Woods and the Future of Dollar Dominance   (00:52:48) – Outro

Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Steven rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the financial stability implications of the discount window. David and Steven also discuss the issues with FHLBs, how to fix the challenge of reporting requirements, restarting the term auction facility and committed liquidity facilities, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Steven’s Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Steven’s blog: Without Warning   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Domestic Liquidity Provision During Potential Crises* - a panel discussion featuring Steven Kelly, Bill Nelson, Susan McLaughlin, and Luc Laeven at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2024 Financial Markets Conference   *Weekly Fed Report Still Drives Discount Window Stigma* by Steven Kelly   *The New Bagehot Project* - an initiative by the Yale Program on Financial Stability   *Forward Guidance: Something Old and Something New: Two Potential, Beneficial Discount Window Facilities* by Bill Nelson   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:02) – The Yale Program on Financial Stability and Steven’s Role   (00:07:04) – Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework   (00:12:45) – Addressing Issues in the Discount Window   (00:21:37) – Responding to Criticism of Liquidity Regulations   (00:27:22) – Fixing the Challenge of Reporting Requirements   (00:33:29) – Restarting the Term Auction Facility and Committed Liquidity Facilities   (00:37:24) – Addressing the Issue with FHLBs   (00:45:26) – Additional Thoughts from the Atlanta Fed Conference Panel   (00:50:59) – Could Increased Use of the Discount Window Cause a Shift in the Fed’s Operating System?   (00:54:44) – Outro

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie’s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi Ernie’s Budget Lab profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi   *Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi   *The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers   *The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos   *Summers, Blanchard Say Waller’s ‘Soft-Landing’ Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:49) – Ernie’s Experience at the CEA   (00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy   (00:15:28) – Ernie’s Favorite Measures of the Labor Market   (00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures   (00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium   (00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege   (00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario   (00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario   (00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars   (00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars   (00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity   (00:58:22) – Outro

Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, but has also previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond from 1989 to 2017, serving as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also a returning guest to podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about Fed governance issues and the lessons learned from the recent inflation surge. Specifically, David and Jeffrey also discuss the issue of maximum employment, how the Fed could reform its governance structure, what the central bank should address during the next framework review, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jeffrey’s Mercatus profile Jeffrey’s website Jeffrey’s Richmond Fed archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Governance and Diversity at the Federal Reserve* by Jeffrey Lacker   *What Lessons Should the Federal Reserve Learn from the Recent Inflation Surge?* Presentation by Jeffrey Lacker at the 2024 UC San Diego Economics Roundtable Lecture Series   *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed’s Accountability to Congress* by Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner   *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes* by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran   *Don’t Audit the Fed, Restructure It* by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland   *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown   *Jim Hamilton on Econometrics, Energy Markets, and Low Interest Rates* by Macro Musings   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:35) – Jeffrey’s View on “Monetary Federalism”   (00:10:01) – Reducing the Number of Regional Fed Banks   (00:13:11) – Addressing Peter Conti-Brown’s Proposals for Fed Governance Reform   (00:18:23) – Addressing Andy Levin and Christina Skinner’s Proposals for Fed Governance Reform   (00:23:07) – Altering the Fed’s Responsibilities as a Bank Regulator   (00:29:21) – What Lessons Should the Federal Reserve Learn from the Recent Inflation Surge?   (00:36:14) – The Issue of Maximum Employment   (00:46:38) – Evaluating the Fed’s Response to the Recent Inflation Episode   (00:50:45) – What Should the Fed Be Addressing During the Next Framework Review?   (00:55:01) – Outro

Mickey Levy is Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia for Berenberg Capital Markets, a Wall Street veteran, and a longstanding member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. He and his co-author, Charles Plosser, also have a new paper out titled, *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot.* Mickey joins David on Macro Musings to discuss this paper and its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve framework review. David and Mickey also discuss the impact and importance of a flat Phillips curve, the Fed’s policy mistakes in the wake of its new flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework, recommendations for how the central bank should approach the next framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Mickey’s Twitter: @mickeylevy Mickey’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:50) – Mickey Levy’s Career Path and Takeaways from the Most Recent Hoover Monetary Policy Conference   (00:07:24) – What Shaped the First Framework Review?   (00:11:56) – The Fed’s Addition of “Symmetric” Inflation   (00:16:32) – Price Level Drift, Deflationary Fears, and Inflation Expectations at the Fed   (00:23:33) – The Impact and Importance of a Flat Phillips Curve   (00:27:34) – Breaking Down the Elements of FAIT and the Fed’s Policy Mistakes   (00:42:11) – Recommendations for the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review   (00:57:54) – Outro

Lars Christensen is a founding member of the market monetarist tradition, an entrepreneur in the AI space, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. Lars rejoins the podcast to talk about AI and its implications for the economy and for monetary policy. David and Lars also discuss the basics and implications of dynamic pricing, AI’s growing use within econometric analysis, how AI will impact the Fed and its policymaking, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Lars’s Twitter: @MaMoMVPY Lars’s blog   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *From Merchants to Quants: The Digital Revolution in Retail* by Lars Christensen   *Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:16) – Lars’s Move from Macro to AI   (00:08:02) – The Basics and Implications of Dynamic Pricing   (00:16:17) – Using AI for Econometric Analysis   (00:23:54) – The Implications of AI for the Economics Field   (00:35:45) – How Will AI Impact the Federal Reserve and its Policymaking   (00:38:55) – Deflation as a Response to an AI Driven Productivity Shock   (00:52:08) – Outro   Photo Credit: Nordnet Bank

Ryan Bourne is the R. Evan Scharf Chair for Public Understanding of Economic at the Cato Institute, and he is also the editor and contributor to a new book titled, *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy.* Ryan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book, and specifically, the history and functionality of rent and price controls, the basics of dynamic pricing, the root causes of inflation, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Ryan’s Twitter: @MrRBourne Ryan’s Cato profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Created Bad Policy* by Ryan Bourne et al.   *I, Pencil* by Leonard Read   *Forty Centuries of Wage and Prices Controls: How Not to Fight Inflation* by Robert Schuettinger and Eamonn Butler   *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:05) – The Background Motivation for “The War on Prices*   (00:06:32) – The Definition and Importance of Prices   (00:12:41) – The Parable of “I, Pencil”   (00:18:39) – Rationing on Quality or Quantity: Rent Control   (00:26:39) – The World War II Experience with Price Controls   (00:32:58) – Price and Wage Controls During the Nixon Administration   (00:35:48) – The Effects of a Minimum Wage   (00:38:38) – The Basics of Dynamic Pricing   (00:44:03) – Defining Inflation and Establishing its Sources   (00:56:08) – Was the Recent Inflation Surge Actually Optimal?   (00:59:51) – Outro

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss recent updates regarding Fed master accounts, the problematic aspects of the Fed’s balance sheet, why a second Trump term would threaten central bank independence, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   Caitlin Long’s tweet regarding the Fed’s special treatment for approving master accounts   *Public comments on the Proposed Guidelines for Evaluating Requests for Accounts and Services* by George Selgin   *Custodia Bank Inc v. Federal Reserve Board of Governors* Court documents from the Wyoming District Court   *Annual Report on Open Market Operations (2023)* by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York   *Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary   *Trump Advisers Discuss Penalties for Nations That Move Away From the Dollar* by Saleha Mohsin, Jennfier Jacobs, and Nancy Cook   *Hayek versus Keynes on How the Price Level Ought to Behave* by George Selgin   *The Menace of Fiscal QE* by George Selgin   *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings   Timestamps:   (00:01:36) – Intro   (00:06:26) – Updates on Fed Master Accounts and the Custodia Case   (00:17:57) – Problematic Aspects of the Fed’s Balance Sheet   (00:22:50) – The Importance of the Overnight Unsecured Interbank Lending Market   (00:34:26) – Responding to the Jared Bernstein Incident   (00:46:33) – Donald Trump, Central Bank Independence, and Dollar Dominance   (00:56:54) – Outro

Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed’s Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed’s recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed’s balance sheet runoff, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Roberto’s NY Fed profile Roberto’s Twitter: @R_Perli   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager   (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed’s Balance Sheet Activities   (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening   (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility   (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT   (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves   (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time   (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System   (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward   (00:49:44) – Outro

Mary Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and is also a 28-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. President Daly joins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about her non-linear career path to the world of monetary policy, the long-term economic impacts of AI, the future outlook for Fed policy and the Fed’s framework, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Mary’s Twitter: @MaryDalyEcon Mary’s San Francisco Fed profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:30) – Mary Daly’s Background   (00:06:09) – Recent Inflationary Trends and the Future of Fed Policy   (00:15:39) – The Trajectory of R-Star Over the Medium to Long-Run   (00:19:06) – The Long-Term Economic Impacts of AI   (00:29:51) – Expectations for the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:33:35) – Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting at the Fed   (00:36:58) – Fed Policymaking During an Election Year   (00:38:16) – Audience Q&A Period   (01:01:09) – Outro

Dan Katz and Stephen Miran are former senior advisors for the US Treasury Department and are currently adjunct fellows at the Manhattan Institute. Dan and Stephen have also written a new paper titled, *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes,* and they join Macro Musings to talk about this paper and the proposed reforms for the Federal Reserve outlined in it. Specifically, Dan, Steve, and David discuss the ever-expanding reach of the Fed, its role as debt manager and bank regulator, the current issue with the central bank’s personnel, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile   Dan’s Twitter: @DanielScottKatz Dan’s Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes* by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:20) – The Fed’s Issue of Picking Winners and Losers   (00:09:17) – The Fed’s Role as Bank Regulator   (00:12:53) – The Ever-Expanding Reach of the Fed   (00:17:50) – The Fed as a Debt Manager   (00:23:33) – What Should the Fed Do in a Zero Lower Bound Environment   (00:27:26) – Personnel is Policy: The Issue with Fed Personnel   (00:29:55) – Options for Personnel Reform at the Fed   (00:38:22) – Making the Fed President Selection Process More Robust   (00:47:28) – The Nature of Debate at the Fed   (00:50:53) – The Scope for Change at the Fed   (00:53:21) – Outro

Richard Clarida is a professor of economics at Columbia University, a managing director at PIMCO, and was most recently the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard rejoins David for this special bonus segment to talk about his interest in music and his first studio album, *Time No Changes.*   Richard’s Federal Reserve profile Richard’s PIMCO archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Time No Changes* by Richard Clarida   *Richard Clarida on FAIT, R-Star, and the Future of the Fed’s Framework* by Macro Musings

Richard Clarida is a well-known academic and policymaker who most recently was the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard is currently a professor of economics at Columbia university and is also a managing director at PIMCO. Richard joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his academic and policy work, as well as his outlook for FAIT, the Fed’s framework review, the future of R-Star, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Richard’s Federal Reserve profile Richard’s PIMCO archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy* by Richard Clarida and Mark Gertler   *The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler   *Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler   *Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:04) – Richard Clarida’s Background   (00:11:37) – Bridging the Gap Between Academic Economics and Real-World Markets   (00:21:50) – Richard’s Journey Through the Policy World   (00:36:29) – Constructing the Fed’s FAIT Framework   (00:40:53) – Evaluating the Results of the FAIT Framework   (00:54:17) – The Future of the Fed’s Framework   (00:57:08) – The Future of R-Star   (01:00:50) – Outro

Saleha Mohsin is a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News, where she covers policy, politics, and power in Washington, DC. Saleha is also the author of a new book titled, *Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order,* and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Specifically, David and Saleha also discuss the intelligence and enforcement tools of the US Treasury, the basics and importance of SWIFT, the effectiveness of US sanctions, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Saleha’s Twitter: @SalehaMohsin Saleha’s Bloomberg archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order* by Saleha Mohsin   *The Big Take* hosted by Saleha Mohsin   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:43) – The Weaponization of the Dollar on the Global Stage   (00:08:55) – The Intelligence and Enforcement Tools of the US Treasury Department   (00:13:10) – Breaking Down SWIFT and Its Importance   (00:18:27) – Sanctioning Russian Oligarchs   (00:22:42) – The Importance and Significance of Robert Rubin   (00:25:29) – The George W. Bush of the Treasury Department   (00:37:42) – Breaking Down the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action   (00:41:06) – The Trump Administration, China, and the Rise of Populism   (00:45:30) – Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Russia Sanctions   (00:51:18) – Threats to the US in the Future   (00:52:48) – Outro

Josh Hendrickson is the chair of the department of economics at the University of Mississippi and is the author of a new paper that looks at dollar dominance through the broad historical perspective of what is called the “Treasury Standard.” Josh is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about this paper and the Treasury Standard concept. David and Josh also discuss the state’s monopoly over money, the path to global dollar dominance, the path dependency of the dollar system, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Josh’s Twitter: @RebelEconProf Josh’s Ole Miss profile Josh’s joint Substack   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Treasury Standard: Causes and Consequences* by Joshua Hendrickson   *If Things Are So Great, Why Don’t People Think So?* by Josh Hendrickson   *The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly* by Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer, Karl Schulz, and Lawrence Summers   *On a Correct Measure of Inflation* by Armen Alchian and Benjamin Klein

Julia Coronado is the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a Wall Street research firm. Julia was also recently the president of the National Association of Business Economists, and she has served as an economist on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Julia is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and she rejoins the podcast to talk about the prospects of a productivity surge, the Fed’s journey to a soft landing, the state of the commercial real estate market, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Julia’s Twitter: @jc_econ Julia’s MacroPolicy Perspectives profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Isabel Schnabel is a Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the ECB and its new operational framework. Specifically, David and Isabel also discuss the structure, operations, and monetary policy instruments of the ECB, the history of its operating framework, the details surrounding its new regime, and more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Isabel’s Twitter: @Isabel_Schnabel Isabel’s ECB profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Eurosystem’s Operational Framework* - Speech by Isabel Schnabel at the Money Market Contact Group meeting   Slides for *The Eurosystem’s Operational Framework* by Isabel Schnabel   *Back to Normal?* Balance Sheet Size and Interest Rate Control* - Speech by Isabel Schnabel at an event organized by Columbia University and SGH Macro Advisors   Slides for *Back to Normal? Balance Sheet Size and Interest Rate Control* by Isabel Schnabel

Andy Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth University and a former senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Christina Parajon Skinner is a legal scholar at the University of Pennsylvania and formerly was legal counsel to the Bank of England. Andy and Christina have co-authored a new article titled, *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed’s Accountability to Congress,* and they rejoin David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Specifically, they discuss the Fed’s power under a constitutional authority, the three sources of Fed undersight, proposals for reform, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Andrew’s Twitter: @andrewtlevin Andrew’s Dartmouth profile   Christina’s Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina’s UPenn profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed’s Accountability to Congress* by Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner   *Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet* by Macro Musings

Anat Admati is a professor of finance and economics at Stanford University and is the coauthor of the 2013 book, *The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It.* Anat is also a returning guest to Macro Musings and she rejoins the podcast to talk about the 2024 expanded edition of the same book, as well as the most recent developments in banking. David and Anat also discuss the effectiveness of post-financial crisis regulations, the design and impact of Basel III Endgame, the fallout from the most recent regional banking crisis, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Anat’s Twitter: @anatadmati Anat’s Stanford profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It – New and Expanded Edition* by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig   *The Parade of Bankers’ New Clothes Continues: 34 Flawed Claims Debunked* by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig   *Anat Admati on Debt, Equity, and Financial Instability* by Macro Musings   *Anat Admati on the Perils of Corporate Debt and How COVID-19 Relief Efforts Have Gone Wrong* by Macro Musings   *Why the Innocent Plead Guilty and the Guilty Go Free: And Other Paradoxes of Our Broken Legal System* by Jed Rakoff

Steven Kamin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, was previously the director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board, and is a returning guest to the podcast. Mark Sobel is the US Chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, and he previously served at the US Department of the Treasury for nearly four decades, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Monetary and Financial Policy from 2000 to early 2015. Also, from 2015 through 2018, Mark served as a US representative at the IMF. Steven and Mark join Macro Musings to talk about dollar dominance and whether or not it is here to stay. Specifically, Steven and Mark also discuss current debates surrounding dollarization, the threat that China poses to dollar dominance, the weaponization of the dollar in the global economy, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Steven’s Twitter: @steven_kamin Steven’s AEI profile   Mark’s Twitter: @sobel_mark Mark’s CSIS profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Dollar Dominance is Here to Stay for the Foreseeable Future—the Real Issue for the Global Economy is How and Why* by Steven Kamin and Mark Sobel   *Steven Kamin on the Global Influence of Fed Policy and the U.S. Dollar* by Macro Musings   *US Sanctions Reinforce the Dollar’s Dominance* by Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber

Peter Williams is a managing director of macroeconomic research at 22V Research and was formerly at the IMF and the World Bank. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to provide a market perspective on interest rates, Treasury markets, and monetary policy. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the dos and don’ts of estimating term premiums, the importance and future of R-star, the usefulness of inflation expectations, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Peter's Twitter: @peterdwilliams Peter’s LinkedIn profile Peter’s 22V bio   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium* by Emanuel Kopp and Peter Williams   *Reading the Stars* by Peter Williams, Yasser Abdih, and Emanuel Kopp   *Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses* by Peter Williams

Bill Nelson is the chief economist and an executive vice president at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill previously was a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill also worked closely with the BIS working groups in the design of liquidity regulations. As a returning guest to Macro Musings, he rejoins David to talk about the recent proposals to improve the Fed’s lender of last resort role via the discount window, as well as recent developments related to the Fed’s balance sheet.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Bill’s BPI profile BPI’s Twitter: @bankpolicy   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Comment on the New G30 Report* by Bill Nelson   *Bank Failures and Contagion: Lenders of Last Resort, Liquidity, and Risk Management* by the Group of Thirty

Eric Leeper is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia, a former advisor to central banks around the world, and a distinguished visiting scholar at the Mercatus Center. Eric is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his work on the fiscal accounting of the COVID inflation surge. Specifically, David and Eric discuss fiscal dominance during the pandemic period, how the fiscal theory of the price level explains inflationary trends, the backward and forward-looking fiscal accounting exercises, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Eric’s Twitter: @EricMLeeper Eric’s UVA profile Eric’s Mercatus profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A Fiscal Accounting of COVID Inflation* by Eric Leeper and Joe Anderson   *Fiscal Dominance—What It Is and How It Threatens Inflation Control* by Eric Leeper   *Three World Wars: Fiscal-Monetary Consequences* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level With a Bubble* by Markus Brunnermeier, Sebastian Merkel, and Yuliy Sannikov   *George Hall on the History of the U.S. National Debt and Government Financing* by Macro Musings

Jeffrey Lacker is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its head from 2004 to 2017. Jeffrey is now a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center and is also a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a wide range of Fed governance issues, including the evolving nature of governance at the Fed, the increasing politicization of the central bank, its continuing relationship with Congress, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jeffrey’s Mercatus profile Jeffrey’s website Jeffrey’s Richmond Fed archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Governance and Diversity at the Federal Reserve* by Jeffrey Lacker   *Some Questions About the Fed’s Monetary Policy Operating Regime* by Jeffrey Lacker   *The Legacy of Bennett McCallum and Lessons for Monetary Policy Today* an event hosted by the Mercatus Center   *Ed Nelson on the Life, Work, and Legacy of Bennett McCallum* by Macro Musings   *What Can the Fed Do About the Deficit? Nothing* by Greg Ip

Mark Koyama is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and is a senior fellow with the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center. Mark is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his recent book that he co-authored with Jared Rubin titled, *How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth.* Specifically, David and Mark discuss the key drivers of long-run economic growth throughout history and what we might be able to expect in the future.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Mark’s Twitter: @MarkKoyama Mark’s GMU profile Mark’s Mercatus profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth* by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin

Gauti Eggertsson is a professor of economics at Brown University and is the author of several recent papers on the causes of the 2021-22 inflation surge and the lessons to be drawn from it for monetary policy going forward. Gauti is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the show to talk about these papers and their findings. Specifically, David and Gauti discuss the role of the Fed’s FAIT framework in the post-pandemic inflation surge, the return of the non-linear Phillips curve, the merits of nominal GDP targeting and average nominal output targeting, Gauti’s policy suggestions for the Fed, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Gauti’s Twitter: @GautiEggertsson Gauti’s website Gauti’s Brown University profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Donald Kohn   *It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve* by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson   *The Slanted-L Phillips Curve* by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson   *A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration* by Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva   *The Fed’s New Policy Framework: A Major Improvement but More Can Be Done* by Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva   *The Princeton School and the Zero Lower Bound* by Scott Sumner   *Temporary Price-Level Targeting: An Alternative Framework for Monetary Policy* by Ben Bernanke

Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. Jonathon joins Macro Musings to talk about Phillips curves, R-stars, and nominal wage rigidity. Specifically, Jonathon and David also discuss the how to view the recent inflation experience, how to measure the natural rate using natural experiments, the downward nature of wage rigidity, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jonathon’s Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon’s website Jonathon’s LSE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Natural Rate of Return on Capital: Replication Package* by Jonathon Hazell, Veronica Backer-Peral, and Atif Mian   *The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence From US States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson   *Measuring the Natural Rate Using Natural Experiments* by Veronica Backer-Peral, Jonathon Hazell, and Atif Mian   *Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires* by Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska   *National Wage Setting* by Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons, and Bledi Taska   *The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?* by Christopher Pissarides

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America, a think tank that promotes full employment in the American economy, and Preston Mui is also a senior economist at Employ America. Skanda and Preston join Macro Musings to talk about U.S. disinflation and the debates surrounding it, as well as what we can expect from Fed policy in 2024 and beyond, and finally, the Fed’s framework review that is set to begin later this year.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Skanda’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda’s Medium archive   Preston’s Twitter: @PrestonMui Preston’s Github profile   Skanda and Preston’s Employ America bios   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Ten Thoughts on the Tribal “Transitory” Debate as We Enter 2024* by Skanda Amarnath   *Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024* by Preston Mui and Skanda Amarnath   Jerome Powell’s Opening Remarks at Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy, a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conferences, hosted by the IMF

Claudio Borio is the head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS. Claudio is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank operating systems and the challenge of large balance sheets at central banks. David and Claudio also discuss the basics and uniqueness of the scarce reserve system, the arguments in favor of an abundant reserve system, the politics of large central bank balance sheets, the possibility of a tiered reserve system, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Claudio’s BIS profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio   *Why Central Banks Should (but Might Not) Keep the Market Flooded With Money* by Jon Sindreu   *Corridor, Floor, Other: Are Operating Frameworks Fit for the Future?* by Daniel Hinge