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Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.
Nicolas Cachanosky on Dollarization in Argentina
Nicolas Cachanosky is an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at El Paso, and he, along with Emilio Ocampo, are the authors of a recent book titled, *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina.* Nicolas joins Macro Musings to talk about the potential dollarization of Argentina, including what it would require and mean for the country. Specifically, David and Nicolas also discuss Argentina’s hyperinflationary experience, the three necessary steps for dollarization, the differences between dollarization and currency boards, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Nicolas’s Substack: Economic Order Nicolas’s Twitter: @n_cachanosky Nicolas’s website Nicolas’s UTEP profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Nicolas Cachanosky and Emilio Ocampo *How to Dollarize Argentina* by Nicolas Cachanosky *Pro Dollarization* by John Cochrane *Argentina Dollarization Is Medium-Term Goal, Caputo Tells Bankers* by Ignacio Olivera Doll
01:02:4918/12/2023
Charlie Evans on the Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Monetary Policy
Charles Evans was a 31-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System, serving as a researcher, vice president, and, ultimately, president and CEO of the Chicago Fed from 2007 to 2023. Charles joins Macro Musings to talk about his past and ongoing work on US monetary policy. Specifically, Charles and David discuss his work as a regional bank president and a member of the FOMC, the creation and adoption of the Evans rule, the current path of R-Star, the future of the Fed’s framework, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Charles’s Chicago Fed profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Implications for the Federal Reserve’s MP Framework in the Future* by Charles Evans
01:03:0111/12/2023
Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger on Geoeconomics and its Policy Implications
Matteo Maggiori is a professor of finance at Stanford University and a returning guest to the podcast, and Jesse Schreger is an associate professor of economics at Columbia University. Matteo and Jesse, along with Christopher Clayton, have recently authored a paper titled, *A Framework for Geoeconomics,* and they join David on Macro Musings to discuss it. Specifically, Matteo, Jesse, and David also discuss the basics, core concepts, and real world examples of geoeconomics, the key elements of a global hegemon, the future of the discipline, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Matteo’s Twitter: @m_maggiori Matteo’s Stanford profile Matteo’s website Jesse’s Twitter: @JSchreger Jesse’s Columbia profile Jesse’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *A Framework for Geoeconomics* by Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger *My Economic Statecraft Syllabus* by Daniel Drezner *A Model of the International Monetary System* by Emmanuel Farhi and Matteo Maggiori *National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade* by Albert Hirschman *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar* by Daniel McDowell
01:02:2704/12/2023
Matthew Raskin on Treasury Market Stability, Interest Rates, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Matthew Raskin is the US head of rates research at Deutsche Bank and was formerly a senior staff member of the Federal Reserve System. Matthew joins David on Macro Musings to talk about interest rates, QE, QT, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. David and Matthew also discuss the inside story behind the Fed’s shift in operating system, Matthew’s framework for long-term interest rates, how to improve the liquidity and stability of the Treasury market, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Matthew’s LinkedIn profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases* by Joseph Gagnon, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache, and Brian Sack
51:1827/11/2023
David Papell on the History, Motivations, and Current Applications of Monetary Policy Rules
David Papell is a professor of economics at the University of Houston and has published widely on monetary policy rules. David joins Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper, *Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the COVID-19 Recession,* as well as the origins, past uses, and current applications of monetary policy rules. Transcript for this week’s episode. David’s Twitter: @DavidPapell David’s University of Houston portal David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Fed Approaches the End of the Rate Hiking Cycle* by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan *Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the COVID-19 Recession* by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan *Policy Rule Legislation in Practice* by Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, David Papell, and Ruxandra Prodan *Policy Rules and Economic Performance* by Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, David Papell, and Ruxandra Prodan
54:3320/11/2023
Rachel Siegel on the Fed, Commercial Real Estate, and the Economics of the 2024 Election
Rachel Siegel is a reporter for the Washington Post, where she covers the Federal Reserve and also reports on the domestic economy more broadly. Rachel joins Macro Musings to talk about the current Fed beat as well as her work on other economic issues, including how the Fed deals with physical cash, the precarious state of the commercial real estate market, the potential issues facing voters heading into the 2024 election, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Rachel’s Twitter: @rachsieg Rachels Washington Post profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Two Blocks from the Federal Reserve, a Growing Encampment of the Homeless Grips the Economy’s Most Powerful Person* by Rachel Siegel *The High-tech, Super-secure Government Warehouse Where Old Cash Dies* by Rachel Siegel, Joy Sharon Yi, Hannah Yoon, and Emily Wright *How the ‘Urban Doom Loop’ Could Pose the Next Economic Threat* by Rachel Siegel *Austin’s Office Market is Exploding. But No One is Moving in* by Rachel Siegel *Remote Work Guru Nick Bloom Thinks We’ll Never Go Back to the Office Full-time – But ‘Maintaining Discipline is Important’* by Geoff Colvin
58:0513/11/2023
Will Bateman on the History and Evolving Nature of the Fiscal Fed
Will Bateman is an associate professor and associate dean of research at the Australian National University College of Law. Will has recently authored a paper titled, *The Fiscal Fed,* which takes a close look at the Fed’s fiscal functions during the two World Wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Will joins Macro Musings to talk about this paper, the origins and evolution of the Fed, the implications for policymakers, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Will’s ANU profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Fiscal Fed* by Will Bateman *The Law of Monetary Finance Under Conventional Monetary Policy* by Will Bateman
01:00:0906/11/2023
PJ Glandon on the State of Macroeconomics: Research and Pedagogy
PJ Glandon is an associate professor of economics at Kenyon College, where he also serves as chair of the economics department. PJ joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent co-authored article, *Macroeconomics Research: Present and Past.* David and PJ also more broadly discuss the state of macroeconomics as a discipline, both in terms of research and pedagogy. Transcript for this week’s episode. PJ’s Twitter: @pjglandon PJ’s Kenyon profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Macroeconomics Research, Present and Past* by PJ Glandon, Ken Kuttner, Sandeep Mazumder, and Caleb Stroup *Let’s Close the Gap: Updating the Textbook Treatment of Monetary Policy* by Jane Ihrig and Scott Wolla
52:4730/10/2023
Ed Nelson on the Life, Work, and Legacy of Bennett McCallum
Ed Nelson is a senior advisor in the Monetary Affairs Division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ed has also previously been a professor of economics at the University of Sydney and has worked at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as well as the Bank of England. Most importantly, however, Ed was also a former student of, and co-author with, the late Bennett McCallum, and he rejoins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about Bennett McCallum’s life, his work, and his legacy within the field of monetary economics. Check out the entirety of the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Transcript for this week’s episode. Ed’s website Ed’s Federal Reserve profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!
41:4723/10/2023
Sam Hammond on AI, Techno-Feudalism, and the Future of the State
Sam Hammond is a senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation and is non-resident fellow at the Niskanen Institute. Sam is also a previous guest of the show, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about artificial intelligence and the future of the state. Specifically, David and Sam discuss the current AI environment, how private AI may replace functions of the state, key moments in the techno-feudalistic future of AI, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s FAI profile Sam’s blog David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *AI and Leviathan: The Institutional Economics of an Intelligence Explosion* by Sam Hammond *AI and Leviathan: Preparing for Regime Change* by Sam Hammond *AI and Leviathan: A Timeline of Our Techno-Feudalist Future* by Sam Hammond *Attention is All You Need* by Ashish Vaswani et al.
55:4016/10/2023
Marc Goldwein on the US Government Budget: Structure, Challenges, and Reform Strategies
Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget. Marc joins Macro Musings to talk about the US government budget, its structure, its challenges, and its long-term trajectories. David and Marc also discuss the basics of government shutdowns and the budgetary process, how the most recent inflationary episode unfolded, how to fix the US budget over the long run, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Last chance to register for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Marc’s CRFB profile Marc’s Twitter: @MarcGoldwein David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Government Shutdowns Q&A: Everything You Should Know* by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget *Retirees Face a $17,400 Cut if Social Security Isn’t Saved* by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget *Amid GOP Confusion, U.S. Braces for ‘First-ever Shutdown About Nothing’* by Jeff Stein
53:3709/10/2023
Lev Menand and Josh Younger on *Money and the Public Debt: Treasury Market Liquidity as a Legal Phenomenon*
Lev Menand is an associate professor of law at Columbia University and Josh Younger is a senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a lecturer at Columbia Law School. Lev and Josh also recently co-authored a paper titled, *Money and the Public Debt: Treasury Market Liquidity as a Legal Phenomenon.* They are also returning guests to Macro Musings, and rejoin the podcast to talk about this paper and its implications for the Treasury market. Lev, Josh, and David also discuss the transition from bank to market financing, whether an increasing level of debt is leading to more instability, the impact of recent regulations on the primary dealer system, how to restore the balance between public debt and money creation, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Josh’s Columbia Law profile Lev’s Columbia Law profile Lev’s Twitter: @LevMenand David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Money and the Public Debt: Treasury Market Liquidity as a Legal Phenomenon* by Lev Menand and Josh Younger *The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis* by Lev Menand
01:01:4402/10/2023
Thomas Hoenig on Public Debt Sustainability and the Current State of the US Banking System
Thomas Hoenig is a distinguished senior fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, where he focuses on the long-term impacts of the politicization of financial services as well as the effects of government-granted privileges and market performance. He was formerly the vice chair of the FDIC from 2012 to 2018 and the 20 years prior to that, he was president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Tom is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins to talk about the Treasury market, public debt sustainability issues, and the state of banking in the United States. David and Tom also discuss the history of Tom’s influence on the Jackson Hole Conference, the growing size of the US current account deficit, the Fed’s role as the primary Treasury market backstop, the dangers of risk-weighted capital regulation, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Thomas’s Twitter: @tom_hoenig Thomas’s Mercatus profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Housing IS the Business Cycle* by Edward Leamer *Understanding the Greenspan Standard* by Alan Blinder and Ricardo Reis *Living with High Public Debt* by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen *Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?* by Raghuram Rajan *Resilience Redux in the US Treasury Market* by Darrell Duffie *Meet the Man Making Big Banks Tremble* by Jeanna Smialek and Emily Flitter
59:2125/09/2023
Robert McCauley on Bond Market Crises and the International Lender of Last Resort
Robert McCauley is a senior fellow at the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, an Associate Member of the Faculty of History at the University of Oxford, and was formerly at the Bank of International Settlements for 25 years and the New York Federal Reserve Bank for 14 years. Robert is also a returning guest to the show, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his recent article titled, *Bond Market Crisis and the International Lender of Last Resort* David and Robert also discuss the basics of a bond market run, the policy reaction and implications of the 2020 “Dash for Cash”, the possible concerns with corporate bond facilities, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Robert’s Boston University profile Robert’s BIS archive David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Bond Market Crises and the International Lender of Last Resort* by Robert McCauley *Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 8th Edition* by Robert Aliber, Charles Kindleberger and Robert McCauley *Robert McCauley on the Global Domain of the Dollar and Threats to its Dominance* by the Macro Musings Podcast
01:11:3718/09/2023
Joe Gagnon on Inflation Progress and the Path Ahead: Breaking Down Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joe is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Specifically, Joe and David talk about the future direction of r star, what current inflationary trends mean for the Phillips curve, the Fed’s commitment to a two percent inflation target, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Joe’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joe’s PIIE profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World* by Joe Gagnon, Kristin Forbes, and Christopher Collins *Fed Chair Powell’s Message in Jackson Hole: Two Means Two* by David Wilcox *Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over* by Nick Timiraos
58:4011/09/2023
Nicholas Anthony on the Current Prospects and Legislative Developments Surrounding CBDC
Nicholas Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and works on issues relating to financial privacy, cryptocurrencies, and the use of money in society. Nicholas joins Macro Musings to talk about central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the recent developments surrounding CBDCs at the Fed and in Congress. Specifically, David and Nicholas discuss the arguments for and against CBDCs, the preemptive, behavioral, and punitive applications of these currencies, who would benefit from the development of CBDCs, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Nicholas’s Twitter @EconWithNick Nicholas’s Cato Institute profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Central Bank Digital Currency: Assessing the Risks and Dispelling the Myths* by Nicholas Anthony and Norbert Michel *CBDC Legislation Recap* by Nicholas Anthony *House Hearing and FOIA Reveals Fed’s Stance on CBDC* by Nicholas Anthony *The Fed’s Questionable CBDC Campaign* by Nicholas Anthony *Who Really Benefits from CBDCs? It’s Not the Public* by Nicholas Anthony and Norbert Michel *Questions of CBDC Cronyism Emerge as Fed Launches Pilot* by Nicholas Anthony *Nigerians’ Rejection of Their CBDC is a Cautionary Tale for Other Countries* by Nicholas Anthony *Nigeria’s CBDC Was Not Chosen. It Was Forced* by Nicholas Anthony *The Risks of CBDCs: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Shouldn’t Be Adopted* by Norbert Michel and Nicholas Anthony *The Digital Euro: A Solution Seeking a Problem?* by Martin Arnold and Sam Fleming
58:2804/09/2023
John Coates on *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything*
John Coates is a professor of law and economics and the deputy dean of the Harvard Law School. John is also the author of a new book titled, *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything,* and he joins Macro Musings to talk about it. David and John also discuss the basics and beginnings of index funds, how they may undermine capitalism, the issues with private equity, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. John’s Harvard Law School profile John’s publications archive David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything* by John Coates *House Republicans Probe BlackRock, Vanguard on Their ESG Policies* by Steven Dennis *BlackRock Offers a Vote to Retail Investors in its Biggest ETF* by Brooke Masters
01:01:5428/08/2023
Zac Gross on the Past, Present, and Future of Australian Monetary Policy
Zac Gross is a senior lecturer at Monash University and was formerly an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Zac joins Macro Musings to talk about the Australian central bank and the recent review of its framework. Specifically, David and Zac also break down Australian monetary policy over the past few decades, the RBA’s yield curve control experiment, the future of its operating system, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Zac’s Twitter: @ZacGross Zac’s website Zac’s Substack David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty-First Century* By Isaac Gross and Andrew Leigh *An RBA Fit for the Future* by Gordon de Brouwer, Renee Fry-McKibbin, and Carolyn Wilkins
57:0821/08/2023
Larry White on Gold, Fiat, and Bitcoin: Determining the Ideal Monetary Standard
Larry White is a professor of economics at George Mason University and is the author of a new book titled, *Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin?* Larry is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to discuss this book and the comparison among those monetary standards. David and Larry specifically discuss the bottom-up vs. top-down theories of money, the basics and functionality of a gold, bitcoin, and fiat standards, the future of money, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Larry’s Twitter: @lawrencehwhite1 Larry’s Mercatus profile Larry’s GMU profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin?* by Lawrence White *Larry White on Stablecoins, Money Market Funds, and the History of Free Banking* by Macro Musings
01:05:1414/08/2023
Ricardo Reis on the Macroeconomics of Financial Crises and the Recent Inflation Surge
Ricardo Reis is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is the co-author of a new book titled, *A Crash Course on Crises: Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-ups, Collapses, and Recoveries.* Ricardo is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book as well as his overall assessment of the inflation surge of the past few years. David and Ricardo specifically discuss what constitutes a bubble, the Eurozone crisis as a story of capital inflows and misallocation, shadow banking and systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis, Ricardo’s view of the Phillips curve, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Ricardo’s Twitter: @R2Rsquared Ricardo’s LSE profile Ricardo’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! *A Crash Course on Crises: Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-Ups, Collapses, and Recoveries* by Ricardo Reis and Markus Brunnermeier *Ricardo Reis on Central Bank Swap Lines, Fiscal Sustainability, and Outlooks for Inflation* by Macro Musings
01:01:4107/08/2023
Macro Lit Review 4: Highlights from Mid-2023 with George Selgin
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and financial policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss the history and present developments surrounding FedNow, the future of real-time payments, how to revise the Fed’s operating system, whether the Fed is currently delivering on a soft landing, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George Cato Institute profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio *Opening a Federal Reserve Account* by Julie Hill *From Cannabis to Crypto: Federal Reserve Discretion in Payments* by Julie Hill *Fiscal Arithmetic and the Global Inflation Outlook* by Peder Beck-Friis and Richard Clarida
58:0631/07/2023
Bryan Cutsinger and Louis Rouanet on the Politics and Dynamics of Hyperinflation in Revolutionary France
Bryan Cutsinger is an assistant professor of economics at Angelo State University and Louis Rouanet is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas, El Paso. Bryan and Louis join Macro Musings to talk about the French Revolution, France’s public finances, its bout with hyperinflation, and finally, the implications of this experience for macroeconomic theory today. Specifically, David, Bryan and Louis also discuss the creation and widespread dissemination of assignats, the emergence guillotine-backed currency in France, the state vs. market theories of money, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Bryan’s Twitter: @BryanPCutsinger Bryan’s website Bryan’s ASU profile Louis’s Twitter: @LouisROUANET Louis’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Assignats or Death: The Politics and Dynamics of Hyperinflation in Revolutionary France* by Bryan Cutsinger, Louis Rouanet, and Joshua Ingber *Macroeconomics Features of the French Revolution* by Thomas Sargent and Francois Velde
54:4724/07/2023
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde on Demographic Trends, Recent Macroeconomic Developments, and AI’s Implications for Economic Growth
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde is a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania and is the co-director of the Business, Economic, and Financial History Project at the Wharton School of Business. Jesus is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about recent macroeconomic developments, the demographic issues facing the world, and AI’s implications for economic growth. Specifically, David and Jesus also discuss whether we needed the fiscal and monetary stimulus of 2021, the European inflation story, South Korea as a case study for global demographic trends, how quantum computing will may impact macroeconomics in the future, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Jesus’s UPenn profile Jesus’s NBER archive David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Demographic Future of Humanity: The Trends* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde *The Demographic Future of Humanity: Economic Challenge* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde *The Demographic Future of Humanity: Social Change* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde *Dynamic Programming on a Quantum Annealer: Solving the RBC Model* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Isaiah Hull
57:1117/07/2023
Chris Conlon on the Post-COVID Inflation Surge and the Greedflation Narrative
Chris Conlon is an associate professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business where he focuses on industrial organization economics and econometrics. Chris joins David on Macro Musings to help shed light on the 2021-2023 inflation surge from the perspective of an IO economist. Specifically, David and Chris discuss the great markup debate within IO economics, the shaky foundation of greedflation, the cost anticipation story of higher prices, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Chris’s Twitter: @conlon_chris Chris’s website Chris’s NYU profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Rising Markups, Rising Prices?* by Chris Conlon, Nathan Miller, Tsolmon Otgon, and Yi Yao Chris’s Twitter thread on the recent inflationary episode *The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomics Implications* by Jan De Loecker, Jan Eeckhout, and Gabriel Unger *How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?* by Andrew Glover, Jose Mustre-del-Rio, Alice von Ende-Becker
59:3810/07/2023
Tim Lee on the Present and Future of AI and its Implications for Policy
Tim Lee is an independent journalist who formerly worked for the Washington Post, Vox, and Ars Technica, where he covered tech policy, blockchain issues, the future of transportation, and the economy. Tim currently produces the newsletter, Understanding AI, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. He rejoins the podcast to talk about AI, automation, and its implications for the macroeconomy and policy. Specifically, David and Tim also discuss the singularism vs physicalism debate, the possible threats posed by AI, how the regulatory landscape will be affected by AI, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Tim’s Twitter: @binarybits Tim’s newsletter: Understanding AI David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The AI Safety Debate is Focusing on the Wrong Threats* by Tim Lee *Congress Shouldn’t Rush Into Regulating AI* by Tim Lee *The Death of Self-Driving Cars is Greatly Exaggerated* by Tim Lee *I Ordered Robot Takeout on Two Campuses with Wildly Different Results* by Tim Lee *Why I’m Not Worried About AI Causing Mass Unemployment* by Tim Lee *US Air Force Says it Did Not Run Simulation in Which AI Drone ‘Killed its Operator’* by Tom Vanden Brook and Kim Hjelmgaard *Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity* by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson
55:1903/07/2023
Steven Kamin on the Global Influence of Fed Policy and the U.S. Dollar
Steven Kamin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and previously was the director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. Steve joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the US dollar and its implications for policy and the economy. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the effects of Fed policy on emerging markets, the factors that are driving a higher global equilibrium real interest rate, how to reconcile the domestic and international impacts of Fed policy, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Steven’s Twitter: @steven_kamin Steven’s AEI profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Will the Strong Dollar Trigger a Global Recession?* by Steven Kamin *How Do Rising US Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends* by Steven Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich *Are Higher US Interest Rates Always Bad News for Emerging Markets?* by Steven Kamin, Jasper Hoek, and Emre Yoldas
56:3526/06/2023
Chris Hughes on the Legacy of Arthur Burns and its Implications for Macro Policy Today
Chris Hughes is a senior fellow at the Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy at The New School, and he is also the co-founder of the Economic Security Project and a senior advisor at the Roosevelt Institute. Previously, he was also the publisher of The New Republic and is a co-founder of Facebook. Chris joins Macro Musings to talk about his work on Arthur Burns’ tenure as Fed Chair and the lessons we can learn from it as applied to today’s inflation experience. Specifically, David and Chris also discuss Arthur Burns’ view of the economy and inflation, how his perspective on business psychology impacted these views, Burns’ view of fiscal and industrial policy as a tool for combating inflation, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Chris’s Twitter: @chrishughes Chris’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Rethinking Arthur Bruns, the “Worst” Fed Chair in History* by Chris Hughes *Digital Dollars: Critical Design Choices and Effects of a Central Bank Digital Currency* by Chris Hughes
54:2719/06/2023
Peter Stella on the Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Intervention
Peter Stella is the former head of the IMF’s Central Banking Division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral, and central bank operations. He now hosts the website, Central Banking Archaeology and continues to consult with the IMF on central bank balance sheet issues. Peter is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the quasi-fiscal implications of central bank crisis intervention over the past few years. David and Peter also discuss the losses on the Fed’s balance sheet, using market value versus the par value of debt, the Fed’s debt management issues with mortgage backed securities, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies* by Peter Stella, John Hooley, and Claney Lattie *Do Central Banks Need Capital?* by Peter Stella *Exiting Well* by Peter Stella
50:1912/06/2023
Christina Skinner on Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money
Christina Skinner is a legal scholar at the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania and was formerly legal counsel to the Bank of England. Christina is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank digital currency and its legal implications for the state, individuals, and the Fed itself. David and Christina also discuss recent developments in CBDC policy rhetoric, the privacy issues surrounding CBDC, the potential interest bearing nature of CBDC, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode Christina’s Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina’s Wharton profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money* by Christina Parajon Skinner *A New Coin of the Realm? Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money* by Christina Parajon Skinner
01:00:1005/06/2023
Gianluca Benigno on the Basics and Policy Functionality of R** and the Dollar’s Imperial Circle
Gianluca Benigno is a professor of economics at the University of Lausanne and was formerly a senior staffer and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, an economist at the Bank of England, and worked at the London School of Economics. Gianluca joins Macro Musings to talk about financial conditions in r**, his work on *The Dollar’s Imperial Circle,* and more. David and Gianluca also discuss the importance of liquidity in a New Keynesian framework, the origins and purpose of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the “Global Financial Resource Curse,” and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode Gianluca’s Twitter: @BenignoGianluca Gianluca’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Dollar’s Imperial Circle* by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Serra Pelin, and Jon Turek *The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R*** by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto *Interest, Reserves, and Prices* by Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo Benigno *The Financial Resource Curse* by Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro *The Global Financial Resource Curse* by Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro and Martin Wolf
49:0029/05/2023
Dan McDowell on *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar*
Dan McDowell is an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, and he is the author of a new book titled, *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar.* Dan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book and the prospects for de-dollarization around the world. David and Dan also discuss the mechanics and effectiveness of financial sanctions, the renminbi as a rival to the dollar, Russia and Turkey as case studies, and more. Transcript for this week’s episode Dan’s Twitter: @daniel_mcdowell Dan’s website Dan’s Syracuse University profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar* by Dan McDowell *What’s Driving Dollar Doomsaying?* by Paul Krugman *Renminbi’s Share of Trade Finance Doubles Since Start of Ukraine War* by Hudson Lockett and Cheng Leng
55:1422/05/2023
Jeanna Smialek on *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis*
Jeanna Smialek is a reporter who covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for the New York Times, and is the author of a new book titled, *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On a New Age of Crisis.* Jeanna is also a returning guest to Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about her book and its implications for the future of the Federal Reserve system. David and Jeanna also discuss the credit allocation vs. liquidity support debate, the Fed’s definition of price stability, the Bank Term Funding Program, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode Jeanna’s Twitter: @jeannasmialek Jeanna’s New York Times profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis* by Jeanna Smialek
51:2015/05/2023
Nathan Tankus on the Future of MMT and How to Avoid U.S. Debt Default
Nathan Tankus is a popular writer for a newsletter titled, *Notes on the Crises* and is the research director of the Modern Money Network. Nathan is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about modern monetary theory and the debt ceiling. Specifically, David and Nathan discuss the future of MMT, the case for minting the trillion dollar coin, the prospects of issuing Federal Reserve securities, the history of the Fed’s operating procedures, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s episode Nathan’s Twitter: @NathanTankus Nathan’s Substack, Notes on the Crises Nathan’s Modern Money Network profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The New Monetary Policy: Reimagining Demand Management and Price Stability in the 21st Century* by Nathan Tankus *Federal Reserve Issued Securities: Not Such A Crazy Idea After All* by Nathan Tankus *The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Operating Procedures Have Come Full Circle: What Does That Mean for the Post-SVB FOMC Meeting?* by Nathan Tankus *An MMT Response on What Causes Inflation* by Nathan Tankus, Rohan Grey, and Scott Fulwiler *Issues Raised by the Credit Crunch and Global Recession* by Janet Yellen
01:08:2108/05/2023
Brian Sack on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and How to Improve the Floor Operating System
Brian Sack was recently the Director of Global Economics at the D.E. Shaw Group, and prior to that, he was the manager of the System Open Market Account or SOMA and the head of the Markets Group at the New York Federal Reserve bank, where he managed the Fed’s balance sheet. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the central bank’s balance sheet, its operating system, and his work at the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Specifically, David and Brian discuss the current state of the Fed’s balance sheet, Brian’s theory of QE, how to improve the effectiveness of the floor system, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Brian’s LinkedIn profile Brian’s Google Scholar archive David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Monetary Policy with Abundant Liquidity: A New Operating Framework for the Federal Reserve* by Joseph Gagnon and Brian Sack *Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Lower Bound: An Empirical Assessment* by Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack
47:3301/05/2023
Mark Calabria on *Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted*
Mark Calabria was the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and prior to that, he was formerly a chief economist for Vice President Mike Pence. Mark is also a previous guest of Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book titled, Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted. Specifically, David and Mark discuss Mark’s time as the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the relief programs his agency ushered through during the peak of the COVID crisis, the history and handling of Fannie and Freddie, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Mark’s Twitter: @MarkCalabria Mark’s Cato Institute profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted* by Mark Calabria
55:2024/04/2023
BONUS: George Hall on Financing World War II and Managing Post-War Debt
George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University, and was formerly an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, George rejoins the podcast to talk about how the US handled the surge in debt resulting from World War II, how COVID changed government financing, his thoughts on the debt ceiling crisis, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George’s Twitter: @George_J_Hall George’s Brandeis profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Brief History of US Debt Limits Before 1939* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent *Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent *Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent
19:1519/04/2023
George Hall on the History of the U.S. National Debt and Government Financing
George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University, and was formerly an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. George has written widely on the history of U.S. public finance, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the history of the U.S. national debt, including the most recent surge resulting from the pandemic. David and George also discuss how a government goes about funding itself, two different models of expenditure financing, the Revolutionary War and Civil War as case studies, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George’s Twitter: @George_J_Hall George’s Brandeis profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent *Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent *Three World Wars: Fiscal-monetary Consequences* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent
49:5517/04/2023
Bill Nelson on the Fed’s Discount Window Lending, the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, and the Shifting Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Bill Nelson is a chief economist and executive vice president of the Bank Policy Institute and was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and is a previous guest of the podcast. Bill rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the Fed’s balance sheet, and in particular, the impact that the Fed’s response to the recent banking turmoil has had on its size, as well as the role being played by the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility. David and Bill also discuss the changes in collateral treatment brought about by the banking crisis, the invocation of 13(3) for the Bank Term Funding Program, the recent volume of discount window lending, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bill’s BPI profile BPI’s Twitter: @bankpolicy David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Why is the Federal Reserve Abetting a Drain of Deposits from Banks?* by Bill Nelson and Greg Baer *I Don’t Know Why She Swallowed a Fly* by Bill Nelson *The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Bill Nelson and Andy Levin
54:1210/04/2023
Kate Judge and Peter Conti-Brown on the Lessons Learned from the 2023 Banking Panic
Kate Judge is a professor of law at Columbia Law School and the editor of the Journal of Financial Regulation, and Peter Conti-Brown is an associate professor of financial regulation and the co-director of the Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation at the University of Pennsylvania. Both are also returning guests to the podcast, and they rejoin Macro Musings to talk about the banking panic of 2023 and the lessons learned so far. Specifically, Kate, Peter, and David discuss how the scene was set for this recent banking crisis, the quality of the policy response, how to reform the banking system moving forward, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Kate’s Twitter: @ProfKateJudge Kate’s Columbia Law profile Peter’s Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter’s UPenn profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Towards an Administrative Law of Central Banking* by Peter Conti-Brown, Yair Listokin, and Nicholas Parrillo *Money Market Funds Swell by More Than $286bn Amid Deposit Flight* by Brooke Masters, Marriet Clarfelt, and Kate Duguid *’The Fed Has Mishandled This About 7 Different Ways’: SVB Rescue Sparks Backlash* by Victoria Guida *Scrap the Bank Deposit Insurance Limit* by Lev Menand and Morgan Ricks
56:5703/04/2023
Brian Riedl on the Current and Future Outlook for US Public Finance and Budget Reform
Brian Riedl is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute where he focuses on budget, tax, and economic policy issues. Previously, he worked for six years as chief economist for Senator Rob Portman of Ohio and as staff director of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth. He also served as director of budget and spending for Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign and was the lead architect of the 10-year deficit reduction plan for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the outlook of US public finance and the tough choices ahead. Specifically, David and Brian also discuss the surging US debt to GDP ratio, the shortfalls of Republican and Democratic plans for budget reform, Brian’s preferable policy path forward, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Brian’s Twitter: @Brian_Riedl Brian’s Manhattan Institute profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Biden’s Promises on Social Security and Medicare Have No Basis in Reality* by Brian Riedl *Biden Is Set to Detail Nearly $3 Trillion in Measures to Reduce Deficits* by Jim Tankersley
53:2627/03/2023
Steven Kelly on the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse and Its Implications for Financial Policy
Steven Kelly is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is a previous guest of the podcast. Steven rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the recent bank collapses at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature, the government response, and what this means for financial stability policy in the present and future. David and Steven also discuss the role that interest rate risk and macro policy played in SVB’s failure, the debate over the systemic nature of this crisis, the implementation and use of the Bank Term Funding Program, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Steven’s Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Steven’s Substack: Without Warning David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: Steven Kelly Twitter thread on SVB Daniela Gabor Twitter thread on SVB *Was This a Bailout? Skeptics Descend on Silicon Valley Bank Response* by Jeanna Smialek and Alan Rappeport *Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?* by Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru
52:2320/03/2023
Derek Tang on the Present and Future Landscape for Fed Policy and Politics
Derek Tang is the CEO and co-founder of LH Meyer, and is part of the research team based in Washington, D.C. where he forecasts Fed policy developments, provides bespoke policy analysis to institutional investors, and also closely monitors and forecasts the Fed’s balance sheet. Derek joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Fed policy, Fed politics, and what to expect in 2023 and 2024. Specifically, David and Derek discuss numerous personnel changes at the Fed, the future of the central bank’s balance sheet, the upcoming Congressional agenda for the Fed, what the next framework review has in store, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Derek’s Twitter: @macroderek Derek’s LH Meyer bio David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment* by Janice Eberly, James Stock, and Jonathan Wright *The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson
52:0313/03/2023
Joey Politano on Fed Policy, Inflation, and the Current State of the US Economy
Joey Politano is an economist and commentator who writes regularly on his Substack newsletter titled, Apricitas Economics. Joey is also a previous guest of the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the state of the US economy, inflation, Fed policy, and much more. Specifically, David and Joey discuss the results of the Fed’s ongoing rate hikes, the narrative that higher rates may lead to higher inflation, conducting monetary policy in a supply constrained economy, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Joey’s Twitter: @JosephPolitano Joey’s Substack: Apricitas Economics David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *America’s 2022 Slowdown* by Joey Politano *The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought* by Joey Politano
53:1006/03/2023
Peter Conti-Brown on the Legal and Regulatory Issues Facing the Fed and Financial Markets
Peter Conti-Brown is an associate professor of financial regulation and legal studies at the University of Pennsylvania and is a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Peter is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and rejoins the podcast to talk about some of the big legal and regulatory issues facing the financial and monetary policy space today. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the debt ceiling crisis, Fed master accounts, the current state of cryptocurrency, the implications of the Federal Reserve Accountability Act, and the most significant court cases facing the central bank today. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Peter’s Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter’s UPenn profile The Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *The Contingent Origins of Financial Legislation* by Peter Conti-Brown and Brian Feinstein *Let Crypto Burn* by Stephen Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz *Mint the Coin? Buy Back Bonds? 7 ‘Gimmicks’ for Dodging the Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein Peter Conti-Brown’s Bonus Segment with David Beckworth
52:3127/02/2023
David Wilcox on the Debt Ceiling Crisis and the Crippling Costs of Default
David Wilcox is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and is the Director of Economic Research at Bloomberg Economics. Previously, David served for many years on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, as deputy director from 2001 to 2011 and as director from 2011 to 2018 of the Division of Research and Statistics. In the latter role, he functioned as the chief economist of the division, a senior advisor to three successive chairs of the board, and the division leader for strategic direction as well as chief manager. David joins Macro Musings to talk about a recent article he wrote titled, *The Cost of the US Going Over the Fiscal Cliff is Trauma, Then Unending Pain.* David and David also discuss the debt ceiling issue more broadly, including the severity and timing of a technical default, the two big economic shocks that would result from a default, the possible solutions to pursue in the face of the this debacle, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. David Wilcox’s Twitter: @D_W_Wilcox David Wilcox’s PIIE profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *The Cost of US Going Over Fiscal Cliff Is Trauma Then Unending Pain* by David Wilcox *Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates* by Olivier Blanchard *Mint the Coin? Buy Back Bonds? 7 ‘Gimmicks’ for Dodging the Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein
51:5820/02/2023
Julie Hill on the History and Recent Developments of Fed Master Accounts
Julie Hill is a professor of law at the University of Alabama’s School of Law and she specializes in the study of the regulation of financial institutions. Julie also has a new paper out titled, *Opening a Federal Reserve Account,* and she joins Macro Musings to talk about the history and recent developments surrounding Fed master accounts. David and Julie also discuss the legal basis for these accounts and the numerous case studies surrounding them, including the Narrow Bank, Reserve Trust, Custodia, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Julie’s Twitter: @ProfJulieHill Julie’s Alabama Law profile David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Opening a Federal Reserve Account* by Julie Hill
01:00:1213/02/2023
Macro Lit Review 3: Highlights from Early 2023 with George Selgin
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss new narratives around shadow banking and the financial crisis, the fiscal cost of large central bank balance sheets, the return of secular stagnation, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *A Monetary Policy Primer: Parts 1-12* by George Selgin *Why Shadow Banking Didn’t Cause the Financial Crisis* by Norbert Michel *The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson *The Monetary Executive* by Christina Parajon Skinner *Secular Stagnation is Not Over* by Olivier Blanchard *The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model* by Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman *Brazil and Argentina to Start Preparations for a Common Currency* by Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott *Floor Systems for Implementing Monetary Policy: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic* by Aleksander Berentsen, Christopher Waller, and Alessandro Marchesiani *Fallen Heroes: Central Banks Face Credibility Crisis as Losses Pile Up* by Johanna Treeck *SNB Will Shrink Balance Sheet After Record Loss, Citigroup Says* by Bastian Benrath *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings
49:3206/02/2023
Michael Strain on Averting the Looming Debt Ceiling Disaster
Michael Strain is the Director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. Michael rejoins the podcast to talk about the looming debt ceiling crisis and his recent article on the issue titled, *Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster.* David and Michael specifically discuss the background, history and recent events leading up to the current crisis, how to impose fiscal discipline in a low interest rate world, solutions the US government could pursue, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Michael’s Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael’s website Michael’s AEI profile David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Averting a Debt-Ceiling Disaster* by Michael Strain *House Republicans Prepare Emergency Plan for Breaching Debt Limit* by Jeff Stein, Leigh Ann Caldwell, and Theodoric Meyer *Extraordinary Measures* by the Bipartisan Policy Center
47:5030/01/2023
John Roberts on Macroeconomic Modeling at the Fed, Makeup Policy, and the Future of FAIT
John Roberts is a 36-year veteran of the Federal Reserve Board and mostly recently was the Deputy Associate Director in the Division of Research and Statistics, overseeing the board’s domestic macroeconomic modeling efforts. From 2017-2019, John also served as a special advisor to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, where his responsibilities includes preparation of speeches, providing advice on monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and regulatory attending FOMC meetings. John joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, macroeconomic modeling at the institution, his work on the zero lower bound, and current Fed policy. Specifically, David and John also discuss the art of interpreting the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, the future of modeling for policymakers at the Fed, the state of FAIT at the central bank, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. John’s blog John’s paper archive David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World* by Michael Kiley and John Roberts *Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts *Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Eric Sims, Jing Cynthia Wu, & Ji Zhang
55:3723/01/2023
Paul Tucker on *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order*
Paul Tucker is a 33-year veteran of the Bank of England, where among other positions, he served as both a member and deputy governor of the Monetary Policy Committee. Currently, Paul is a research fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard. He is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his new book, *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World.* Specifically, David and Paul also discuss China’s push for reserve currency status, how to sell international legitimacy to the general public, the geopolitical advantage of trade deals, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Paul’s Harvard profile Paul’s website David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* by Paul Tucker *Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State* by Paul Tucker *Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy Implementation, and the Public Finances* by Paul Tucker *Biden Needs Allies to Keep China and Russia in Check. Here’s How to Do it.* by Sebastian Mallaby
58:1316/01/2023