In this show, I talk with Professor Kevin Dowd. He is professor of finance and economics at Durham University and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He has written extensively on the history and theory of free banking, central banking, financial regulation, and monetary systems. His books include Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability, Laissez‐Faire Banking and Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. In this podcast we discuss: Was government intervention in 2020 the right thing to do? The capital problems of the banking and insurance sectors Why free banking (no/light regulation) works The problem with MMT Why debt levels matter How negative rates could hurt

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. I’m a big fan of the new HBO show Industry. It follows a group of young graduates competing for  permanent positions at fictional investment bank, Pierpoint & Co. It’s the most authentic depiction of a trading floor that I have seen on a TV show, so I had to get the creators of the show, Mickey Down and Konrad Kay, on to my podcast show. In this podcast we discuss: Their backgrounds working at investment banks Where they filmed the trading floor Why they avoided storylines like insider trading How they captured the details of sales/trading and M&A What the show tells us about young people today Will there be a season 2?

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman’s Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the National Counter Terrorism Council, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations. In this podcast we discuss: Yaneer’s January paper with Nassim Taleb and Joseph Norman on the coming COVID crisis Using complexity science to understand pandemics The importance of restricting travel and bringing cases to zero The mistake of countries that lift restrictions before zero cases Why the West managed COVID poorly compared to Asia and Africa The poor comparison to seasonal flu The economic benefits of aggressive action vs cost of soft lockdowns Why the vaccine doesn’t mean countries should lift restrictions How investors and the business community can help end the COVID crisis

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Dr. Dirk Willer. He’s a Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Fixed Income Strategy at Citigroup in NY. His research covers global emerging markets for FX, local rates, and credit. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the top team in the 2019 institutional investor survey for emerging markets strategy in FX and rates. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and at Swiss Bank as Russia strategist. He’s also recently published an excellent new book called “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner′s Guide”.  In this podcast we discuss: How markets treated the US election like an EM election Impact of Biden’s win on major EM Why EM does well with the vaccine breakthroughs Which EM will do best in post-COVID world Will EM inflation pick up? Can EM survive higher US rates? Is China a good long-term buy? Should we be worried about Brazil’s fiscal numbers? How much does EM depend on global factors? Trading rules for EM markets Books that influenced Dirk: Market Wizards, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. I had him as a guest in July when he argued that we could see a COVID vaccine around US election time. He was right and so I wanted to get his latest views. For background, Justin is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. Earlier this year, he published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and recently published in Foreign Affairs China’s global role in vaccine distribution. In this podcast we discuss: The significance of Pfizer’s 90% efficacy rate Vaccines from other pharma companies including from Russia & China The science of vaccines – B-cell and T-cell responses Fast tracking of vaccine approval by FDA Managing public opinion and anti-vaxxers Logistics of vaccine distribution When will we get to herd-immunity Remaining uncertainties around vaccines Mink factories and mutations Long COVID and athletes Which countries have secured vaccine supplies

The US election did not see the Democrat wave that many had expected, so I have US Presidential history expert of Cambridge University, Gary Gerstle, return to our podcast show. He gives his take on all things US elections and beyond. In this podcast we discuss: The parallel Presidencies of 1876 The current risks of unrest if the results are not certified soon What pollsters missed Were the Democrats too left or not left enough? How will Biden manage the left and a Republican Senate ahead of 2022 midterms The return of state rights over central government How a divided congress shifts power to the President and the Supreme Court The profound importance of the Republicans winning State legislatures Thoughts on a Georgia Senate run-off

Michael was Managing Director and Senior Research Advisor in Multi-Asset Strategies at BlackRock. Prior to that he was head of Currency and Fixed Income Research in the Global Market Strategies Group at BlackRock and Barclays Global Investors. Michael is currently Executive Director of the Master of Finance program and also serves as Executive Director of the Pacific Center for Asset Management at UC San Diego. He has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In this podcast we discuss: The difference between quantitative and fundamental investing How to systematically earn alpha in FX markets How to think about FX carry and momentum strategies Does flow data have any value? How the QE-era has fundamentally changed FX investing The importance of China and the Chinese yuan How to use machine learning for trading Why understanding transaction costs is critical How to benchmark the performance of currency managers Papers mentioned: Preserving Alpha: The Effect of Trade Size and Rebalancing Frequency on FX Strategy Returns and Active Currency Investing and Performance Benchmarks Books that influenced Michael: Active Portfolio Management and Autobiography of a Yogi

John Kay is one of the UK’s leading economists. His books on the tax system, corporate strategy and banking have been widely praised. He helped establish the Institute of Fiscal Studies, is a fellow at St. Johns College Oxford, and was the first dean of Oxford’s Saïd Business School. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of science for policymakers and why they do not use it more The problem with the focus on short-term earnings Why people are pro-social rather than individualistic Why the 1970s failed and later why neo-liberalism failed Why productivity could be under-estimated The problem with the rights movements The need for decentralization and disciplined pluralism How the EU helps the creation of smaller states Why regulation is helping big banks The importance for businesses not to obsess about profits Recent book that influenced John: The Secret of Our Success (Joseph Henrich)

Gary is Paul Mellon Professor of American History at Cambridge University. Before that, he was at Vanderbilt University where he was James G. Stahlman Professor of American History. He is a social and political historian of the twentieth century, with substantial interests in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He got his PhD from Harvard University. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. In this podcast we discuss: How Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy How Biden could continue Trump’s protectionist policies US climate-change related immigration challenges Historic parallels of protectionism and anti-immigration How Trump’s break from democratic norms is unprecedented How Trump differs from Richard Nixon and Andrew Jackson When was the last time the US was as polarised as today The challenges of a Biden administration

Corey recently wrote an excellent piece on market liquidity and I had to have him as a guest. For background, he is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, a quantitative tactical asset management firm. At Newfound, he is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. He holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. In this podcast we discuss: How central banks have pushed investors up the risk curve How central banks have introduced moral hazard to investors The importance of passive investing as marginal flow into assets The impact of passive on how trades are executed The procyclicality of HFT liquidity provision How dealers hedging magnifies volatility shifts The prevalence of volatility contingent strategies in markets When do liquidity cascades end How to position of liquidity cascades Books that influenced Corey: Fooled by Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Red-Blooded Risk (Aaron Brown)

Helen is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University. She has been at Cambridge since 1994, and is at present, Deputy Head of the School of the Humanities and Social Sciences. She is a regular panelist on the excellent podcast show Talking Politics. She has recently been focusing on the political economy of oil, Brexit and the euro zone crisis. In this podcast we discuss: The current state-of-play in Brexit talks How state aid issues have become more importance since COVID The purpose and implications of the Internal Market Bill Why the EU wants a deal Could Boris Johnson face a leadership challenge? How Scotland could get an independence vote The challenge for Labour around England and Scotland UK’s new flexible foreign policy balancing EU and US Should central banks target income inequality Books that influenced Helen: David Copperfield (Charles Dickens) and The Radetzky March (Joseph Roth)

Vitor was the Vice President of the ECB until a few years ago. And before that held numerous high-profile roles including being Portugal’s finance minister, the central bank governor of Portugal and negotiating the entry of Portugal into the EEC – the forerunner to the EU. Vitor is currently President of the Council of ISEG at the University of Lisbon and a Professor at the Navarra University in Madrid.. In this podcast we discuss: The evolution of monetary policy since the 1970s Is there a limit to the size of central bank’s balance sheet? How low inflation accelerated ECB QE Why central banks cannot control inflation perfectly Does the ECB target the euro Views on the Fed’s new average inflation target and whether ECB will follow Why QE and loose fiscal policy is not MMT Should central banks target income inequality How the ECB can support climate change policies Why fiscal policy is needed more than monetary policy And Twitter footnote: Europe’s two downside risks – delays in recovery fund disbursements and credit supply issues.

Charlie McElligott is the leading experts on all things positioning, flow, sentiment and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the impact of low real yields and “everything duration” trade How momentum and secular growth (tech) trades have converged Will value trades ever work? What indicators to use to identify sharp market reversals The importance of dealer gamma What happened during the summer melt-up in tech Views on recent market correction Favourite trades around US election Personal stuff: Charlie’s paleo approach and longevity supplements Books: Jon Krakauer’s “Into Thin Air”

Michael Pettis is someone who I have followed closely over my career and he is one of the most widely followed China experts in the investor community. He is currently based in Beijing and is Professor of Finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University and is the co-author of the recently published book “Trade Wars Are Class Wars”. In this podcast we discuss:  How economists don’t understand debt Understanding when high savings rates work for countries How advanced economies investment needs changed since 1970s How trade surplus countries like China and Germany suppress the household wages and income Why China’s high savings rates will now only lead to higher debt, rather than growth How Spanish workers are harder working than German workers How the US and UK are forced recipients of excess savings Why high debt levels lead to low rates The problem with official Chinese GDP data The importance of the US dollar as reserve currency Why the Chinese yuan will not collapse Recommended books: the works of Kindleberger, Adam Tooze’s The Deluge, Eichengreen’s Golden Fetters, Mark Nelson’s Jumping the Abyss: Marriner S. Eccles and the New Deal, 1933-1940

I’m always on the lookout for podcast guests with unconventional backgrounds, and on this episode, we have one such guest, Lyn Alden. Lyn has an academic background in engineering and currently works at an aviation simulation facility. But on top of her day job, she has developed a widely followed framework for investing in markets. Her approach is value with a global macro overlay and she’s been doing this research for over fifteen years. I learnt a lot in our conversation, and I’m sure you will too. In this podcast we discuss: The differences between today’s tech boom and the dot-com period How she is currently playing tech stocks Finding value in international stocks and in quality stocks Metrics to use for quality Underappreciated sectors like tobacco and energy Views on Tesla, Amazon and Apple Looking at equally-weighted vs market-cap weighted stock indices Bullish on China tech How to think about debt cycles and the special case of Japan Bullish views on gold and bitcoin Book that influenced her: Big Debt Crises

In this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve’s 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and a co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She’s a frequent consultant for the New York and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks. She is also the author of the textbook, Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance. In this podcast we discuss: Importance of the knowledge economy How alternatives to rational expectation models need to be used when dealing with tail events The critical role of the reactions and belief scarring from events like pandemics Why the long-term costs of COVID will be ten times larger than the current year costs How safe haven assets will be in even more demand, which will keep rates low The role of data accumulation in economies The limits of big data A book that influenced Laura: Guns, Germs and Steel

In this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy, and he has advised congressional staffers on policy. In this podcast we discuss: 1. What did the Fed do right and wrong in its COVID response 2. How the Fed is losing independence 3. The advantages of price level and average inflation rate targeting 4. Why nominal GDP/income targeting is the best approach 5. What has caused the 30y decline in US rates 6. How the Fed should be reformed 7. Books that influenced David: Secrets of the Temple and Less Than Zero

In this episode, I talk with Shahraab Ahmad. Shahraab was previously the Chief Investment Officer of the credit fund Decca Capital. Prior to launching the fund in 2015, he managed the Hutchin Hill Liquid Credit Strategy (2008-2013). From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Sailfish Capital, where he traded global relative value within credit, and prior to that, he was Co-Head of the HY Credit Trading Group at J.P. Morgan (1999-2004). In this podcast we discuss: The early years of CDS trading Transitioning from the sell-side to hedge funds How credit markets are less efficient today than in the past How the 2008 crisis compared to the 2001-2002 credit crisis The challenges of launching your own fund How he traded the COVID crisis Potential value in NY residential real estate The opportunities in Venezuelan bonds How to use SPACs to gain value How central bank QE could help hide corporate fraud The book that influenced his trading the most

In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He’s currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.”. He’s an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China”. In this podcast, we discuss: How poor public health investment has made the recession worse Implications of the US’s diminished role on the global stage Three reasons for the dollar’s coming decline The problem with the lack of US savings Why investment has been too low The problem with Trump’s China policy The need for Europe to stand up on the global stage Likely Biden policies if he wins Life after Wall Street

In this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative from 2017 to 2019. He has also held positions as IMF Mission Chief for Romania and Bulgaria, Division Chief of the IMF's Debt Policy Division, and Head of the IMF delegation to the Paris Club. His research has been published in top journals of the economics profession, including the Journal of Political Economy and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: 1. The state of Pakistan’s economy and financial markets before COVID hit 2. The reasons for and status of the IMF programme 3. How Pakistan’s markets behaved over COVID 4. The transition from a fixed FX regime to market-determined FX regime 5. The path of FX reserves 6. How the State Bank has shifted to an expected inflation target 7. COVID policies outside of cutting rates 8. Longer-term goals of boosting exports, financial inclusion and raising saving rates 9. How global institutions have responded to the COVID crisis versus GFC 10. The role of debt reduction rather than debt rescheduling for EM

In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss: Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution Why haven’t real wages risen? Are we mismeasuring growth, investment and productivity? Why inflation won’t rise meaningfully The pros and cons of MMT The surprisingly good EU budget/recovery fund Germany’s U-turn on frugality The transition challenges of Brexit China’s pressure cooker and India’s steady release Climate change – a 5-degree temperature increase changes everything

In this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discuss: The 1994 Mexico crisis and learning how to buy distressed assets The 1997-1998 Asia/Russia/LTCM crisis and the importance of correlations The problem with hedging and importance of thinking of gross positions How to think about the US factor when trading EM markets The three ingredients of EM crises Be careful of overweighting politics Decluttering the investment process COVID’s decoupling of markets and the economy Market risks still remain Which EM markets look good

In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies.  He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19.  In this podcast we discuss: Current vaccine trials Absence of COVID-19 reinfections Why is vaccine development faster than before Low mutability of COVID-19 Symptoms of COVID-19 Why are minority groups experiencing higher infection rates Why are elderly being affected the most Views on the Sweden approach Why is the US death rate not higher Policy recommendation

In this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before Congress on data security issues between the US and China. In this podcast we discuss: Why data flows matter Does the China government have access to all data in China How Chinese companies push back on data requests Are US tech firms helping the Chinese government? The right approach for the US dealing with China tech/data issues US companies need to manage US data better too EU is creating global standards EU is pushing back on US accessing European data Will US election impact US-China tech war?

This episode is sponsored by SGX – the largest Asian FX exchange. In this episode, I talk with Raghuram Rajan. He is currently Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. Before that, he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the IMF. He’s the author of several books – most recently, the excellent “The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets are leaving Communities Behind” in 2019. In this podcast we discuss: The sources of economic weakness around COVID The 5 steps policymakers need to take from relief to reform The fallacy of MMT and the absence of free lunches Debt levels matter - for every Japan, there is an Argentina Should international markets be liberalized? Dollar’s status as reserve currency China’s challenging growth prospects India’s wrong turn Rise of authoritarianism The failure to understand fall-out from international treaties What needs to be done to be optimistic about the future

In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world’s leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss: Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades The role of safe assets in this downtrend Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds Whether central banks have been captured by fiscal authorities Whether the Fed will move to yield curve control Whether Fed or BoE will move to negative rates US economic outlook How Brexit and COVID are impacting UK Germany vs rest in EU

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry How to design good trading models. Avoiding data mining Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded Why trend-following models have underperformed Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows Importance of reducing transaction costs Types of alternative data How to use news data The non-technical challenges of using alternative data Why Python is an important complement to Excel

In this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He’s written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers”. Here’s what we talk about: Defining uncertainty - difference between radical uncertainty and black swans Use of narratives to understand uncertainty Importance of resilience and preparedness Why central banks have done too much during COVID The importance of fiscal and other policies to deal with major economic challenges His view on negative rates Should central banks mandates be changed to target financial imbalances and inequality Could inflation head higher? Is climate change the only long-term risk to consider? How his work on radical uncertainty has changes his view of economics

In this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She’s an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She’s also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why a V-shaped recovery is likely 2. The panic pandemic 3. How productivity could jump after COVID 4. What could see inflation rise 5. How income inequality is distorting the economy 6. The coming backlash against monopolies 7. Why expansion of central bank balance sheets is not a problem 8. China’s new assertiveness 9. The possible demise of the Hong Kong Dollar 10. Germany saves Europe 11. View on equities You can find most of Dominique’s views on macrohive.com.

In this episode, I talk with Professor Alex Edmans from the London Business School. He’s one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value and profits. In fact, he’s just come out with a book on the subject called “Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit”. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Is a company’s sole purpose to deliver profits? 2. How markets do not correctly price in social value in the short-term 3. The problem with restrictions on executive pay 4. Could hedge fund activism be helpful? 5. How the management styles of Continental Europe compare to the Anglo-Saxon model 6. Creating the “growing the pie” mindset 7. How to define purpose and use it to run a business 8. Is the financial sector useful? 9. Is there a place for share buybacks? 10. Does ESG work? 11. How companies should deal with COVID 12. Time management tips 13. The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown.

In this episode, I talk with Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg. He is the Head of Asset Allocation at one the world’s largest asset managers, Legal and General. His fund is one of the fastest growing multi-asset funds and has been a top quartile performer over the last five years. In his own word, Emiel replaced rowing with French Fries, but has continued to instill the teamwork from his rowing team into his investment team. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why markets have recently rallied 2. The earnings challenge for equities and his preference for credit 3. The dominance of tech and tactical picks in equity laggards 4. The Thucydides trap for US-China and the risk of messy transitions between hegemons 5.How COVID could accelerate populism 6.The Dutch concerns around EU integration 7. Permanent scarring of the global economy from COVID 8. Re-opening approaches that minimize economic impact 9. Current favourite trade ideas 10. How to structure and manage teams for success 11. The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown You can follow Emiel’s and his team’s thoughts on the LGIM blog here.

In this episode, I talk with Alfonso Prat-Gay. He was Governor of the central bank of Argentina from 2002 to 2004 and later Argentina’s Finance Minister between 2015-2016. I had the pleasure of working under Alfonso during my J.P Morgan days in the late 1990s, and I hold him up to be one of my most influential mentors. We also have a scoop about Alfonso and the Bank of England. On the podcast, we cover a very wide range of topics including: 1. The pre-COVID global trends from the US’s incorrect policy mix to slowing Chinese growth 2.Why Latin America has struggled with growth for decades 3. Why COVID hurts the poor the most economically 4. How can emerging markets escape the middle-income trap 5. The challenges of being a policymaker in Latin America 6. The failure of the IMF 7. The lack of leadership in Latin America 8. The possibility of using QE by emerging markets 9. What the UK needs during Brexit 10. Argentina’s restructuring The podcast is longer than normal, but it’s well worth the listen.

In this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She’s a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis 2. Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation 3. Not putting too much weight on weak employment data 4. Why Euro-area break-up trades are not attractive 5. Her view on the dollar and euro 6. The prospects of inflation.

In this episode, I talk politics and markets with Bobby Vedral. He’s a top macro and political analyst who runs Macro Eagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council, which focuses on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs, where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The structural consequences of the COVID crisis 2. What the stress points are for the Euro-area and which countries are at the center of tensions 3. How the latest German constitutional court ruling could constrain the ECB 4. What’s going to happen with Brexit 5. The widening China/rest of the world political rift 6. Why Biden would likely beat Trump in elections and the importance of Biden’s VP pick 7. The problem with big tech’s monopoly 8. The future of climate change policy and ESG 9. The dramatic increase in risks of global political brinkmanship Bobby gives a very thoughtful and often different from consensus view on key political issues of the day, so make sure to listen to the whole episode. You can reach him at [email protected].

In this episode, I have a wide-ranging conversation with the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator, Martin Wolf. He brings a depth to any topic that is often lacking anywhere else. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The parallels of the COVID crisis with past crises such as the ones seen in the 1970s 2. The uniqueness of this crisis 3. How well policymakers have done so far 4. The role of international organisations and US hegemony 5. The challenge for EM countries 6. How China will be viewed after this crisis 7. What tensions will emerge in the EU 8. How the world will look differently after COVID

In this episode, I have a conversation with the super-smart and provocative thinker and investor, Alex Gurevich. In our wide-ranging chat, we discuss recent lessons learned, views on markets and risks to look out for. Specifically: 1. How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style. 2. How every crisis delivers something you’ve never seen before 3. Why crisis moments are when you should take most risk. 4. Why bonds can still be attractive even when yields are low 5. How keeping exposure to equities is still wise even if more declines are expected 6. Why Europe is a buy 7. How China has survived a major stress test 8. How to trade EM markets. 9. How supply chain failures are the biggest risk for the global economy.

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the top macro investors that I’ve come across, Jim Leitner. He has an impressive track-record, but more importantly, is very thoughtful and can go from talking about the nuts and bolts of options trading to how political regimes change. In the podcast, we talk about: How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style Whether options are over-priced The path of the dollar Which companies and sectors will succeed in the COVID world Which EM markets are most attractive How to play China most effectively Whether we should worry about central banks printing money Why macro hedge funds have underperformed in recent years

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of my favourite global economists, Phil Suttle. He’s got the credentials having worked at J.P. Morgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor, but it’s his analysis that stands out. In the podcast, we talk about: (1) How to forecast growth when economies lock-down. (2) Whether the policy responses so far will make a difference and how Asia is behaving differently. (3) The chances of a second-half recovery. (4) How the world will look after COVID. (5) How inflation could finally arise. (6) How the euro-area could finally meet its biggest challenge. We talk about this and much more. Make sure to subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify or wherever you go for your podcasts. 

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the leading experts on gold, John Butler. He has spent 25 years in the financial industry, worked at some of the top banks and has even written a book on gold (The Golden Revolution). In the podcast, we talk about: Valuation frameworks for gold The relationship between oil and real interest rates with gold The insurance properties of gold How gold behaves around regime changes in political and monetary systems Comparisons between gold and bitcoin Projections for gold in the next few years. It’s a great discussion, so please enjoy.