Shannon O'Neil is the vice president, deputy director of studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on global trade, supply chains, Mexico, Latin America, and democracy.  Did globalisation increase that much in the past?  Japan’s important role  Why South America didn’t regionalise 

David Rubenstein is Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group – one of the largest private equity firms in the world. Prior to forming Carlyle in 1987, David practiced law in Washington, D.C. with Shaw, Pittman, Potts & Trowbridge LLP (now Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP). From 1977 to 1981, Mr. Rubenstein was Deputy Assistant to the US President for Domestic Policy.  Among other philanthropic endeavours, David is Chairman of the Boards of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Economic Club of Washington, and the University of Chicago. David also serves as a Fellow of the Harvard Corporation and as Chairman of the Harvard Global Advisory Council and the Madison Council of the Library of Congress. David is a magna cum laude graduate of Duke University, where he was elected Phi Beta Kappa. Following Duke, David graduated from the University of Chicago Law School, where he was an editor of the Law Review. This week's podcast covers how private equity has evolved, common patterns of star investors, why social class matters for investors, and much more.

Fred Thiel is the CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings – one of the largest bitcoin mining companies in North America. Prior to this, Fred co-founded Sprocket, a blockchain and cryptocurrency technology and financial services company that focused on creating a single aggregated global trading marketplace. Before that, Fred served as CEO of Local Corporation, a Nasdaq-listed leader in online local search and digital media. Outside of these roles, Fred has founded and run numerous tech companies both in hardware and software. This week's podcast covers attempts at building a crypto exchange, how mining helps move to renewable energy, thoughts on FTX, and much more.

Gerard is a senior fellow with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He joined CSIS after nearly 11 years in the U.S. intelligence community. From 2018 to 2021, DiPippo was a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council, where he led the intelligence community’s economic analysis of East Asia. He also was a senior economic analyst at the CIA focused on East Asia, South Asia, and global economic issues. In this podcast, we discuss working at the CIA, structural pressures vs zero-COVID policy, how China sees the Russia-Ukraine war, and much more.

Victoria is Professor of Finance and Head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. She is also the faculty chair of the Global Initiative for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a member of the Model Validation Council at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Victoria co-heads Harvard Business School’s Private Capital Initiative and Private Equity and Venture Capital (PEVC) executive education program. She is a co-author of Patient Capital: The Challenges and Promises of Long-Term Investing and Private Equity: A Case Book. In this podcast, we discuss characteristics of long-term investing, private equity, private debt, venture capital, types of investors in these asset market, and much more.

Igor founded Alphidence Capital in 2020 and holds the positions of CEO and CIO. The fund is unusual in that it focuses on systematic macro investing. Previously Igor was the CIO for ADG Capital Management LLP from 2013 to 2019. Prior to that he spent 9 years at IPM Informed Portfolio Management AB where he was a Partner and Head of Portfolio Management and Research. Igor graduated from Leningrad Polytechnic Institute in 1986 where he obtained a Master’s degree in Computer Science. In this podcast we discuss how to model central bank reaction functions, use of valuation models, how to manage risk, and much more.

Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University). He has previously served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He’s the author of many books including his latest: Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future And How To Survive Them. In this podcast we discuss the implications of high debt levels, which balance sheets look worrisome, chances of World War and much more.

The Doomberg team are energy gurus amongst other things. They are the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and C-suite executives. Its principals have decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity and finance.

Robert is a systematic futures trader, writer, and researcher. He is the author of several books on systematic trading including ‘Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems’ and the upcoming ‘Advanced Futures Trading Strategies’. Before becoming independent, Robert worked for AHL, one of the leading systematic hedge funds, which is part of the Man Group. He was responsible for the creation of AHL's fundamental global macro strategy, and then managed the funds multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio. In this podcast, we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, how to avoid overfitting and better back-tests, which frequency of trading works best, and much more.

Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).

Randy is co-head of senior lending and oversees senior lending origination and capital markets for Churchill Asset Management, which has $40bn of committed capital. Randy is widely credited with developing loan syndications for middle market companies. Prior to joining the firm, Randy served as a senior managing director and head of capital markets and indirect origination at Churchill Financial. Before that, he worked as managing director and head of leveraged finance syndication for BNP Paribas. He spent 15 years at JP Morgan Chase in corporate banking and loan syndications, where he originated, structured and syndicated leveraged loans. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Evolution of private credit markets. 2) Comparison to high-yield bonds and syndicated loans. 3) Why banks want to off-load loans. 4) Types of loans that make up private credit. 5) How buyers of private credit monitor loans. 6) Typical size of loans. 7) How to protect against recession risks. 8) How Fed hikes have affected private credit. 9) Role of private equity. 10) Are private markets a bubble? 11)Books that Randy mentioned: The Waste Land (TS Eliot), Eliot After The Waste Land (Crawford) , O Jerusalem! (Collins).

Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.

Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He contributes regularly to media outlets, such as Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Al-Monitor, and think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Middle East Institute. In this podcast we discuss: 1) What was behind Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive win. 2) Why the Russian army is weaker than expected. 3) Why the counter-offensive started in September. 4) How the West is supporting Ukraine. 5) How internal dissent within the West could reduce support. 6) Whether Russia has any gas leverage left with Europe. 7) Status of the new war front between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 8) Whether Putin’s popularity suffered. 9) How the main players around Putin are faring. 10) Whether Ukraine aims to recapture the Donbas and Crimea. 11) Whether there are peace talks. 12) Points of escalation from Russia. 12) Lessons from Russia-Chechnya wars.

Artem has over 10 years of finance experience in food, agriculture, and farmland. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School, and a BA and MA in Economics from the Higher School of Economics. Prior to founding FarmTogether, Artem was employee #1 and CFO/VP of Operations at Full Harvest Technologies, a now post-Series A B2B platform for​ buying and selling​ produce. He previously worked at Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Sprott Resource Holdings, E&Y and PwC. In this podcast we discuss types of investable farmland, whether farmland provides an inflation hedge, leverage levels in farmland, and much more. 

Karl is Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and Mentor at Creative Destruction Labs (Said Business School, University of Oxford). He began his career at JPMorgan trading fixed income. In 1996, Karl oversaw Banco Santander's Global Asset-Liability activities in Madrid. In 2001, he returned to London as Global Head of FX for HSBC Asset Management. From 2003, he held Senior Portfolio Manager roles at Brevan Howard, UBS O'Connor, Deutsche Bank's Cross Asset Trading group. In 2012 he joined Barclays Bank Treasury in London as Head of Euro Liquidity Management. In 2017 he joined LPP, Local Pensions Partnership, where he managed the Fixed Income portfolio. In 2018, he was a Participant at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Karl holds two degrees; Physics from Imperial College, London and Molecular Biophysics from University College, University of Oxford. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Capital-ism vs income-ism. 2) The demographic problem. 3) Importance of the scientific method. 4) The end of mean reversion. 5) Investment uncertainty vs risk. 6) The risk of correlation changes. 7) How today’s crises are different to GFC. 8) A coming asset crisis. 9) Phase transitions. 10) Central bank, real economy and political regime changes. 11) What the performance of the 60:40 portfolio tells us. 12) Solving for lower future market returns. 13) Demographic – climate change – machine learning shocks. 14) The failure of factor investing. 15) Have a plan A, B and C. 16) Career risk. 17) Books mentioned: The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon), The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat (Sacks)

James Fok is a veteran financial and strategic advisor to corporations and governments. He served as a senior executive at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) from 2012 until 2021. While there, he played a major role in a number of landmark financial markets initiatives, including the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme (2014), Bond Connect (2017) and the Hong Kong market's Listing Reforms (2018). Prior to HKEX, Fok worked as an investment banker in both Europe and Asia, specialising in the financial services sector. James is the author of the recently published book: Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets (2021). In this podcast we discuss: 1) The impact of the global financial crisis on the US and China. 2) How US-China relations have shifted since the Second World War. 3) China’s demographic challenge. 4) China dynastic history and what it tells us about China. 5) The need for China capital market reforms. 6) Reliance of China on the US dollar financial system. 7) The impact of Russia sanctions. 8) Costs to the US of dollar dominance. 9) Why Cold War analogies are incorrect. 10) How China’s reliance on food and energy imports affects its view on US containment policies. 11) Potential reforms to reduce US-China tensions. 12) The role of HK as a bridge between East and West. 13) Books that influenced James: The Quiet American (Greene) and Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Vogel).

Cameron Crise is a macro strategist at Bloomberg, where he writes the Macro Man column and posts on the Markets Live blog. Previously, he was a global macro portfolio manager at Graham Capital in Connecticut and Nylon Capital in London. Earlier in his career, he was a currency portfolio manager and economist for several European asset management firms and held a variety of foreign exchange roles at UBS. He is a graduate of Duke University with a degree in public policy studies and history. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Lessons from working at hedge funds. 2) Where are we in the US growth cycle? 3) Inflation path. 4) How high will the Fed hike? 5) Will bond yields reach new highs? 6) The problem with the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) programme. 7) Overnight moves in stock markets. 8) Chances of deeper equity correction. 9) Chances of larger financial crisis. 10) Thoughts on China and Europe. 11) Equity earnings. 12) Books mentioned: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), Market Wizards (Schwager) , Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Kindleberger) and Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor).

Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Why understanding perception, judgment and decision making matters. 2) How your unconscious affects your decision making. 3) The particular challenge of trading and investing in markets. 4) The role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them. 5) Differences between emotions and impulse. 6) Understanding conviction levels. 7) Using intuition over impulse. 8) How to incorporate emotions into your dataset. 9) Traits of successful traders. 10) How to set up a hedge fund. 11) Books that influenced Denise: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).

Diego is Managing Partner at $1.8b Quadriga Asset Managers. Prior to joining Quadriga in Madrid in 2017, Diego worked in London, New York, and Singapore for two decades and held senior leadership roles across macro commodity markets at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, BlueCrest Capital, Dymon Asia, and Old Mutual Global Investors. Diego is best-selling co-author of ‘The Energy World is Flat’ (Wiley, 2014) and author of ‘The Anti-Bubbles’ (BEP, 2017).  Diego has a MS Mineral Economics from Colorado School of Mines, MS Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, and MS Mining and Petroleum Engineering by the Madrid Polytechnic School of Mines. In this podcast we discuss the definition of an ‘anti-bubble’, why inflation is higher than you think, the right asset allocation for stagflation, and much more.

Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at  One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss: 1) The short-, medium- and long-term drivers of inflation. 2) Why near-term inflation could still rise even with growing recession fears. 3) Why changes in interest rates could matter more than the levels of interest rates. 4) How housing affects inflation. 5) Are there parallels to the 1970s? 6) Why inflation volatility matters. 7) Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? 8) Why the TIPs market may not give an accurate measure of long-term inflation. 9) The income potential of TIPs bonds. 10) The case of low inflation in Japan. 11) Books mentioned: Slouching Toward Utopia (DeLong), The Dawn of Everything (Graeber, Wengrow), Amusing Ourselves to Death (Postman).

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Former Prime Minister Abe’s legacy in Japan. 2) The long-term impact of COVID on the global economy. 3) The demise of capitalism. 4) Why nominal GDP targeting is better than inflation targeting. 5) Measuring financial stress and why it is rising. 6) Which other countries are ‘Japanising’. 7) The current state of Japanese growth. 8) How high can Japanese inflation go? 9) Will the BoJ exit yield curve control (YCC)? 10) Is a weak yen a problem for Japan? 11) What drives Japanese bond yields. 12) Books that influenced Matsuoka-San: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn).

Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss: 1) Increased volatility in the business cycle. 2) How close are we to market crunch point. 3) Three most likely scenarios for the Fed, inflation, and recession. 4) Main street vs Wall Street liquidity. 5) How to understand money supply (M2). 6) How will bonds and equities perform? 7) Which EM markets will perform or not? 8) What typically happens to EM during recessions. 9) The chances of a China stimulus.

This episode is sponsored by Amber Group Marion is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in London and a lecturer at Harvard University. She has extensive private sector, public policy, and monetary policy experience, including at the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Luxembourg Central Bank, and Barclays. She received first prize from the American Society of Actuaries, Revue Banque nominated her as a rising star in finance, and Business Insider named her a cryptocurrency mastermind. Laboure holds a bachelor’s degree from Université Paris Dauphine, a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a Doctorate of Philosophy from the Ecole normale supérieure in Paris. On this podcast we discussed: 1) Experience of working for the European Commission. 2) How fintech is impacting developing countries. 3) The financial challenges of millennials. 4) The problem of financial literacy amongst retail investors. 5) Why are crypto markets so volatile. 6) The impact of central bank liquidity on crypto. 7) Crypto: payment vs digital gold. 8) The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 9) Will CBDC displace banks? 10) Can crypto displace the fiat financial system? 11) Books that influenced Marion: The Curse of Cash (Rogoff), The End of Alchemy (King).

Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018. Before joining Pictet, Raymond was head of dollar and euro credit investments at Swiss Re Asset Management. Before that, he worked for Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit. He has traded credit across all major geographies and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging Markets in 1997. Raymond holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Master's in Contemporary Theology in the Catholic Tradition from Heythrop College, University of London. On this podcast we discussed: 1) Why investing globally gives you an edge. 2) The importance of trading across the capital structure of companies. 3) Why price matters. 4) Making illiquidity your friend. 5) What investors are currently missing – the credit cycle. 6) How to manage an investment team. 7) Nurture vs narcissism. 8) What to look for in new hires. 9) The importance of managing the exit process well. 10) When trading, knowing when to cut. 11) Understanding that it’s easier to buy and harder to sell. 12) Books that influenced Ray: Brave New World (Huxley), Liar’s Poker (Lewis), The New Encyclopedia of Modern Bodybuilding (Schwarzenegger).

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:   1) How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print. 2) Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy. 3) Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely. 4) Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth. 5) Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy. 6) What investors should look out for. 7) Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal. 8) Whether the US will go into recession in 2023  You can follow Dominque’s work here     

Thorsten spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. He was also head of equity derivatives at Panmure Gordan and Head of Trading Warrants and Structured Products at WestLB. Currently, he educates and lectures on derivative markets. On this podcast we discussed a simple explanation of options, how to understand volatility, and how to trade VIX. He also gave his views on skew and the volatility smile, how to manage your options position, understanding the greeks – delta, gamma, theta, and the different players in the options market. Finally, on a more personal note, Thorsten shared the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefvre), and Atlas Shrugged (Rand).

Stéphane is CEO and Co-Founder of FRNT Financial – a crypto-focused investment bank. He began his capital markets career working in the Equity Products group on the trading floor at BMO Capital Markets (BMO) in 2010 as a Cash Equity Sales Trader. He eventually transitioned into BMO’s hedge fund sales trading group and added coverage of equity options and equity swaps. In 2018, Stéphane left BMO to start FRNT Financial. In August 2019, Stéphane was elected Chairman of the Canadian Security Traders Association (CSTA) following a term as Vice Chairman. On this podcast we discussed use cases for crypto, why the differences between Ethereum and bitcoin are exaggerated, what to look out for when investing in crypto, and much more.

Jay spent 40 years in international finance, including at Elliot Management and Lehmans. His primary focus was on distressed EM sovereign debt. He was central to the historic 15-year fight to recover billions of dollars in defaulted Argentine debt. That campaign, which included the court-approved seizure of an Argentinian Navy ship in Ghana with 200 people aboard in 2012, reached a successful conclusion in 2016. The Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement was worth $2.4 billion, a gain of roughly 10 to 15 times the original investment. The Financial Times said the settlement ‘is seen as one of the greatest hedge fund trades’ in history. Jay has now switched to writing with his debut novel, about dark money and global politics, Undermoney. On this podcast we discussed how to sue a country, how countries like Russia evade sanctions, how illicit money is moved through central banks, and much more.

Mike is the Chief Executive Officer of ReSolve Global Asset Management. He has over 29 years of experience in investment management and is responsible for investment decisions, coaching, and strategic leadership. He has co-authored the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times – and Bad. Before his investment career, Mike played professional football. In this podcast, we discussed how to invest in different stages of the business cycle, whether valuations matter, the benefits of machine learning and much more. 

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Tymofiy Mylovanov is the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky and former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. He is currently focused on humanitarian work for Ukraine. In the podcast, we talk about the real reason for Russia’s invasion, the three levers of economic power Russia has over the world, the state of the Russian army compared to Soviet times, and much more.

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about why recession risks are overstated, whether real earnings will increase, energy investment and higher inventories as the new normal, and so much more. 

John is a commodity guru amongst other things. He has 25 years of experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation, and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been ranked the #1 Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012), and The Golden Revolution, Revisited In this podcast we discuss why the inflation pressures will remain, why the dollar is vulnerable, risks of escalating global conflicts, and much more. 

Dan Zwirn is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors LP. Arena is a $3.4 billion global investment firm focusing on special situations asset and credit investments in corporates, real estate, structured finance, and corporate securities.  Before founding Arena in 2015, between 2009 and 2015, Dan founded and/or led several specialty finance enterprises including Applied Data Finance (a consumer finance company), North Mill Capital (an asset-based lender), and Lantern Endowment Partners (an investment fund). In 2001, while a founder of the Special Opportunities Group at Highbridge Capital Management, Dan, along with Highbridge, co-founded D.B. Zwirn & Co., a global special situations firm, which grew into a $6 billion enterprise. In this podcast we discuss, the problem with niche investors, why global bottom-up investing works, the big risks for the next 12 months, and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests – an investment firm that focuses on the publicly traded oil and gas sector. He has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. Josh became Chairman of the Board of RMP Energy in 2017. After refreshing the board and management team and rebranding the company (Iron Bridge Resources), it was bought out at a 78% premium in 2018.  Before this, Josh was a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms, and then an investment analyst at a private equity fund. Josh worked as an energy investment analyst for a multi-billion-dollar, single family office. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the energy sector, the cost of drilling, impact of ESG on the energy sector, and why oil input isn’t higher. He also discussed the structural supply issues for the energy sector, the investment needs to maintain supply, the regulatory pressures on supply, if the Middle East can step up supply, and the best to get exposure to energy. On a more personal note he also revealed the books that influenced him the most: The First Billion Is the Hardest (Pickens) and Fooling Some of the People All of the Time (Einhorn).

Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss: Why understanding perception, judgment and decision-making matters, how your unconscious affects your decision making, the particular challenge of trading and investing in markets, the role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them, and the difference between emotions and impulse. She further discussed how to understand conviction levels, using intuition over impulse, how to incorporate emotions into your dataset, traits of successful traders, and how to set up a hedge fund. On the more personal side she revealed the books that influenced her the most: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: Why Powell and the Fed reacted late to inflation, comparison to Volker period, if the Fed has a framework, and how strong the Fed Board is. She further discussed why the US labour market is weaker than most think, why structural inflation is still low, why the US will enter a recession, unintended consequences of Russia-Ukraine War, and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He’s worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy started his career at Salomon Brothers. He is the founder of Damped Spring Advisors. In this podcast we discuss: What Andy learned from Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, setting up all-weather portfolios, the problem with bonds, and how to outperform the market. Andy further talked about using flow and position data and macro news, the impact of mortgage convexity hedging on bonds, what is next for the Fed, and whether equities are overvalued. Finally, he discussed his views on inflation, his favourite trades, and the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities (Fabozzi), Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (Hull), Principles: Life and Work (Dalio) and Liar’s Poker (Lewis). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com.  

Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss: Why Timothy has been expecting a larger conflict since 2015, western exposure to Russia and ESG, Putin’s motivations, and why NATO expansion is not the core issue. He also talked about the scale of the sanctions, chances of regime change in Russia, why the conflict won’t end soon, how China fits into the picture, and why this is a globally systemic event.

Jurrien is the director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. Fidelity is the one of the largest asset managers in the world. He is part of Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation group, where he specialises in asset allocation and global macro strategy. He has held various other roles at Fidelity, including director of market research and technical research analyst. He also co-managed Fidelity Global Strategies Fund from 2007 to 2014. Before joining Fidelity in 1995, Jurrien was a vice president in the Fixed Income group at ABN AMRO Capital markets in New York. He has been in the financial industry since 1985. In this podcast we discuss: How the Russia/Ukraine conflict will impact markets, the importance of energy prices, whether non-US stocks can outperform, and current parallels to the late 1960s. Jurrien also discussed the case for S&P500 at 8000, why the 1970s parallels could be overstated, how to fit crypto into your portfolio, and the difference between bitcoin and the rest. Finally, Jurrien revealed the books that influenced him the most: Going to Pieces Without Falling Apart (Epstein) and The Art of Loving (Fromm). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. John is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. His new book is The Voltage Effect: How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale. He has worked with firms such as Lyft, Uber, Citadel and several non-profits. His academic research includes more than 200 peer-reviewed journal articles and several published books. John was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2011 and a fellow of the Econometric Society in 2015. He is a current editor of the Journal of Political Economy. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of field experiments and scaling in economics, what John learned at Uber, and the optimal way to get tips. He also discussed how to avoid false positives, thinking about spillovers and network effects, avoiding the cost trap, and how to incentivize scaling. On a more personal side, John revealed the books that influenced him the most: Wealth of Nations (Smith), The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Smith), Anna Karenina (Tolstoy), Principles of Economics (Marshall), Economics (Samuelson), Elementary Principles of Economics (Fisher).

Greg is a Special Writer at The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine. The book has been optioned by HBO for a series from Academy Award winning director Adam McKay. Greg is also the author of the bestseller: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. In this podcast we discuss: Why Big Pharma did not develop the COVID vaccine, how the vaccine was developed so quickly, key players in vaccine development, and what mRNA and adenovirus vaccines are. Greg also gave his views on the outlook of vaccine breakthroughs for other diseases, what made Jim Simons the top investor of all-time, and the importance of culture. On a personal note, Greg shared the books that influenced him most: Den of Thieves (Stewart) , Liar’s Poker (Lewis), Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough) and Indecent Exposure (McClintick).

Tania Reif is Founder and CIO of Senda Digital Assets. Prior to her cryptocurrency focus she built her investment pedigree at top macro hedge-funds including Soros Fund Management, Laurion Capital, Citadel and Alphadyne Asset Management. She was profiled in the 50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds 2017 survey by The Hedge Fund Journal. Her career spans public policy beginnings at the International Monetary Fund and experience in the banking industry at Citgroup’s Economic and Market Analysis team. She holds a PhD in Economics with Distinction from Columbia University where she earned the Jagdish Bhagwati International Economics Award for her work in currency dynamics. In this podcast we discuss: Lessons learned from macro investing, why you should leave macro for crypto, what drives crypto prices, and understanding the unique aspects of crypto. She also talks about crypto valuations, what the crypto market cap tells us, where yields come from in DeFi, the future of the metaverse, and lessons in launching a crypto fund.

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights & actionable investment ideas. Previously, he was the head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio for a large European bank. In this podcast we discuss: How money is created, where the credit cycle is right now, why the European growth cycle looks better than the US, and ECB hikes. On trades, Alf discussed long EUR/USD and long NASDAQ/short Russell trades and how asset swap trades work. We also talked about Draghi and Italian risks, China’s credit cycle turn, and long China real estate trade. Finally, Alf revealed his favourite trade - US 2s10s flatteners, and the books that influenced him the most: Pragmatic Capitalism (Roche),  Inside the House of Money (Drobny) and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics (Koo).

Adam is a Managing Director and Global Head of G10 FX Options Trading at Goldman Sachs. Prior to this, he was an FX Volatility Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and he has worked as a vanilla and exotic FX options trader at Barclays Investment Bank in London. He is the author of Foreign Exchange: Practical Asset Pricing and Macroeconomic Theory (forthcoming, 2022), and Volatility: Practical Options Theory (2018). Adam holds a PhD in financial mathematics and economics from Imperial College London, an MSc in applied mathematics from Oxford University, and an MSci, and BA in physics from Cambridge University. In this podcast we discuss: Why investors and traders need to understand finance theory, risk premia strategies, and understanding risk premium through umbrellas and rainy weather. We also covered the common risk premia strategies in FX markets, where currency volatility comes from, options markets, rules of thumb for trading options, and when to use options. Finally, on the more personal side, Adam revealed the books that have influenced him the most: Asset Pricing (Cochrane) and End of Alchemy (King).

Shahin Vallée is head of the Geo-Economics Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Before the German Council, Shahin was a senior economist for Soros Fund Management, and also served as a personal advisor to George Soros. Prior to that, he was the economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron at the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance, where he focused on European economic affairs. Between 2012 and 2014, Shahin was the economic advisor to President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy. In this podcast we discuss: How Europe fits into the US-China conflict Europe’s nuclear energy dilemma Russia/Ukraine risks Chances of Euro break-up If the EU fiscal policy changed after COVID Whether the ECB will hike in 2022 Whether Macron wins the French elections in April Germany in a post-Merkel world Books that influenced Shahin: Lords of Finance (Ahamed) and The Alchemy Of Finance (Soros)

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. Prior to forming Morgan Creek in 2004, Mark was President, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of UNC Management Company, the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, from 1998 to 2004. Until 1998, Mark was the Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office where he joined as the Assistant Investment Officer in October of 1993. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of the asset allocation decision rather than trading The investment value of ownership The problem with the 60:40 model The coming debt default How to manage risk Innovation as an asset class Understanding the crypto revolution How to pick the right crypto markets and avoid Ponzi schemes Favourite coins/tokens Favourite equity sectors and bonds for 2022 Learning from star investors Books that influenced Mark: The Alchemist (Coelho) and The Tao Jones Averages (Goodspeed)

Mark Stanwyck is the Co-Founder of Avalaunch - the first protocol, exclusively for the Avalanche ecosystem, to offer projects a platform for decentralized fundraising. Rick Seeger is the Co-Founder of Oh! Finance - an optimized yield-generation protocol. In this podcast we discuss: Comparison of layer one protocols from Ethereum to Avalanche Use cases in crypto How GameFi works How traditional gaming companies respond to GameFi Ways in which DeFi offers high yields What the criteria are to determine the risk of DeFi yields Whether Coinbase and other centralised exchanges impact DeFi How fundraising works in crypto Comparisons of VC vs decentralised user-driven fundraising Books that influenced Mark and Rick: The History of Money (Weatherford) and The Compound Effect (Hardy)

Ari Paul is co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital. BlockTower is a crypto and blockchain investment firm, applying professional trading, investing and portfolio management to this digital asset class. It is funded by well-known investors such as A16z and Union Square Ventures. Before BlockTower, Ari was a portfolio manager for the University of Chicago's $8 billion endowment, and a derivatives market maker and proprietary trader for Susquehanna International Group (SIG). In this podcast we discuss: How to value bitcoin Understanding drivers of crypto markets What flows have driven crypto in recent years? Business for exchanges like UniSwap The real benefit of crypto is co-ordination power Trends in layer one protocols like Ethereum and Solana Will switch to Proof of Stake make a difference? What stage of hype cycle are Metaverse and DeFi tokens? Risk is about sizing positions Books/articles that influenced Ari: Money, blockchains, and social scalability (Nick Szabo), Shelling Out: The Origin Of Money (Szabo), Debt: The First 5000 Years (Graeber)