The state of Canada’s Condo Market
RE/MAX Canada has released its 2024 RE/MAX Canada Condominium Report.
In this video interview, Samantha Villiard, Regional Vice President, RE/MAX Canada, discusses the key findings from the report.
PRESS RELEASE
TORONTO, Oct. 9, 2024 /CNW/ — Despite fears of leaving money on the table, sellers have returned to housing markets across the country in large numbers as the promise of future interest rate cuts draw skittish buyers back into the fray, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Canada.
The 2024 RE/MAX Canada Condominium Report examined condominium activity between January – August 2024 in seven major markets across the country including Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, City of Calgary, Edmonton, Greater Toronto, Ottawa and Halifax Regional Municipality, and found that condo listings have soared in anticipation of increased demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025. Growth in inventory levels was highest in the Fraser Valley (58.7 per cent), followed by Greater Toronto (52.8 per cent), City of Calgary (52.4 per cent), Ottawa (44.5 per cent), Edmonton (17.7 per cent), Halifax Regional Municipality (8.1 per cent) and Vancouver (7.3 per cent). Values have held up surprisingly well given the influx of listings, with gains posted in Calgary (15 per cent), Edmonton (four per cent), Ottawa (2.3 per cent), Vancouver (1.9 per cent), Fraser Valley (1.9 per cent), and Halifax (1.2 per cent). Meanwhile in Greater Toronto, the average price fell two per cent short of year-ago. While sales were robust in Alberta thanks to in-migration from other parts of the country, Edmonton led the way in terms of percentage increase in the number of condos sold, up just close to 37 per cent from year-ago levels, marking the region’s best performance in the previous five-year period. This is followed by a more tempered Calgary market, which was up 2.6 per cent over 2023. Remaining markets saw home-buying activity soften in the condominium sector.
“High interest rates and stringent lending policies pummeled first-time buyers in recent years, preventing many from reaching their home-ownership goal, despite having to pay record high rental costs that mirrored mortgage payments,” says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. “The current lull is the calm before the storm. Come spring of 2025, pent-up demand is expected to fuel stronger market activity, particularly at entry-level price points, as both first-time buyers and investors once again vie for affordable condominium product.”
SOURCE: Greater Vancouver REALTORS, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, Calgary Real Estate Board, REALTORS Association of Edmonton, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Ottawa Real Estate Board, Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS. *Apartments Only **Estimated average price for Greater Vancouver
Edmonton and Calgary remain firmly entrenched in seller’s market territory, while conditions are more balanced in Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Ottawa and Halifax. These markets will likely transition in 2025. Toronto may be the last to emerge from more sluggish conditions, however, Alexander notes that it’s a market that has been known to turn quickly. Absorption rates will be a key indicator. Certainly, the market forces of supply and demand always prevail, so some neighbourhoods will fare better than others. Of note in Toronto, prices have likely bottomed out and that’s usually evidence that a turnaround is in sight.
The current uptick in inventory levels is drawing more traffic to listings, yet buyers remain somewhat skittish across the country. The first two Bank of Canada interest rate cuts did little to entice prospective homebuyers to engage in the market, given the degree of rate increases that took place. However, with further rate reductions expected and policy adjustments to address affordability and ease entry into the market, activity will likely start to climb, particularly among end users.
“Even in softer markets, hot pockets tend to emerge,” says Alexander. “In the condominium segment we’re seeing a diverse mix among the most in-demand areas, ranging from traditional blue-chip communities to gentrifying up-and-comers, as well as suburban hot spots. Condominiums in choice recreational areas were among the markets posting stronger sales activity—a trend that was also reflected in our single-detached housing report issued earlier this year.”
In each market, there are condominium pockets that defied overall trends. In the Greater Toronto Area, condominium sales were up by double digits in the first eight months of 2024 in midtown communities such as Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale, Forest Hill South (C03) where activity increased 25.3 per cent (114 condo sales in 2024 compared to 91 sales in 2023) and Bedford-Park-Nortown, Lawrence Park, and Forest Hill North (C04) rose 13.3 per cent (128/113). The west end’s High Park, South Parkdale, Swansea and Roncesvalles (W01) communities experienced a 15.7-per-cent upswing in units sold (206/178) while neighbouring W02 including High Park North, Junction, Lambton Baby Point, and Runnymede-Bloor West Village climbed 25.2 per cent (189/151). In the east end, the Beaches (E03) reported a 20.3-per-cent increase in sales activity.
In Greater Vancouver, an uptick in apartment sales was noted in suburban markets including Port Coquitlam where the number of units sold was up 11 per cent (263 in 2024 compared to 237 in 2023) while more moderate increases were posted in New Westminster (up 0.4 per cent) and recreational communities such as Whistler/Pemberton (up 3.3 per cent). In Fraser Valley, Mission was the sole market to experience an increase in apartment sales, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, up just over 74 per cent year-over-year (68 in 2024 compared to 39 in 2023). Strong sales were also reported in Calgary neighbourhoods such as Eau Claire (up 59.1 per cent) and Downtown East Village (up 17.3 per cent).
Meanwhile, RE/MAX found that investor activity has stalled in most markets. The slowdown has been most notable in Greater Toronto, where up to 30 per cent of investors have experienced negative cashflow on rental properties as mortgage carrying costs climbed, according to analytics by Urbanation and CIBC Economics. Investor confidence is expected to recover in the months ahead, as interest rates fall and return on investment (ROI) improves. Edmonton bucked the trend in investor pullback. With supply outpacing demand in Canada’s most affordable condominium market, savvy investors in Edmonton have been actively revitalizing tired condominium stock and subsequently renting it out for top dollar. Affordability has been a significant draw for out-of-province investors, particularly those from Ontario and British Columbia who are seeking opportunities further afield to bulk up their portfolios. Out-of-province developers and builders have been similarly motivated by Edmonton’s lower development costs and lack of red tape. Halifax to a lesser extent has drawn investor interest, with affordability, low vacancy rates and upward pressure on rents being the primary factor behind the city’s appeal.
“In many markets, end users are in the driver’s seat right now,” explains Alexander. “While investors are an important part of the purchaser pool, this point in time is a unique opportunity for aspiring condominium buyers who, for a short window of time, will likely see less competition from investors and a better supply of product. This is especially true in Toronto and Vancouver, where the impact of monetary policy has hit investor profit margins to a greater extent despite high rent and low vacancy rates. With values set to rise, this is arguably the most favourable climate condominiums buyers have seen in recent years.”
In the longer term, immigration to Canada and in-migration/out-migration from one province or region to another will continue to prop up demand for condominiums in the years to come, as condominiums now represent both a first step to home ownership, and increasingly—in Canada’s most expensive markets—the middle step as well. Although population numbers are forecast to contract in the short-term, overall growth will resume, with Statistics Canada’s projections falling just short of 44 million to as high as 49 million by 2035.
Increasing density and urbanization, along with continued population growth is expected to support the long-term outlook for condominium activity nationally. Canada’s urban population has been climbing consistently since the post-WWII period with an estimated 80 per cent of Canadians residing in urban centres. Downtowns are growing fast, and more rapidly than ever before.
“The housing mix is evolving very quickly as a result of densification and urbanization. Condominiums now represent the heart of our largest cities, and it is inevitable that further development will see condos become the driving force accounting for the lion’s share of sales in years to come,” says Alexander. “It’s a physical and cultural shift that Canadians are not only adjusting to but are embracing, as younger generations redefine urban neighbourhoods, sparking demand for vibrant and robust amenities, infusing new life in Canada’s urban cores in the process.”
Market by market overview
Greater Vancouver Area and Fraser Valley
Softer market conditions prevailed throughout much of the year in the Greater Vancouver Area and the Fraser Valley, with fewer sales of condominium apartments occurring across the board in 2024. In Greater Vancouver, year-to-date apartment sales between January and August were well off year-ago levels at 9,248, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors, down just over eight per cent from the same period in 2023. Neighbouring Fraser Valley reported just 3,130 apartments changing hands between January and August of this year, down 8.5 per cent from year-ago levels. Values continue to climb in the Fraser Valley, where the overall average price year-to-date for apartment units is up two per cent year-over year ($559,215/$548,658) according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, while Vancouver has edged up two per cent to $823,550 in 2024, compared to $807,085 in 2023.
Home-buying activity started with a bang in both Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley this year as the anticipation of interest rate cuts in April fuelled momentum. When it became evident that interest rates would hold steady until June or July, the wind was sucked from the market sails. Several areas in Greater Vancouver have reported an increase in year-to-date sales, including Port Coquitlam (263 sales in 2024 compared to 237 sales in 2023), New Westminster (546/544) and Whistler/Pemberton (186/180). Despite several interest rate cuts to date, however, buyers are still skittish, holding off on purchasing their home until rates decline further, while sellers are reluctant to list their homes for fear of leaving money on the table.
The catch-22 situation has been frustrating for buyers and sellers alike, but buyers who pull the trigger now on a purchase, may ultimately find themselves in a better position come spring. Selection is good with more than 2,100 apartments currently listed for sale in Greater Vancouver and another 2,080 available in the Fraser Valley, and buyers have the luxury of time to make thoughtful decisions. Come spring, the number of purchasers in the market is expected to increase, placing upward pressure on values.
Some of the most popular areas for condominium sales in Greater Vancouver in recent years are in East Vancouver. Its culturally diverse and artsy neighbourhoods, top-shelf restaurants and cafés, including Michelin Star Published on Main, as well as craft breweries and entertainment, have served to draw a younger demographic. False Creek, Mt. Pleasant, Kits Point, Fairview, Pt. Grey and Dunbar offer condo buyers a spectacular view of North Vancouver and the Burrard Inlet and easy access to the Skytrain, bike and walking paths, parks and recreational facilities. A one-bedroom apartment in an established building in Mt. Pleasant can be purchased for approximately $650,000, while newer product can be picked up for as low as $490,000 to a high of $928,000. Prices in nearby Kits trend higher with a one-bedroom hovering at $715,000 on average.
The lion’s share of apartment sales in both Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley are occurring under the $800,000 price point for a one-bedroom apartment, while a two-bedroom priced below $1 million will generate solid interest. The Valley tends to offer greater selection under the $800,000 price point, and typically has more appeal with first-time buyers.
As demand rises in tandem with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts, absorption levels should increase. Spring of 2025 is expected to be characterized by strong demand and dwindling supply, with modest increases in average price. Strong economic fundamentals going into the new year will support an increase in home-buying activity, with lower interest rates and longer amortization periods helping to draw first time buyers into the market once again.
City of Calgary
While interprovincial migration has slowed from year-ago levels, overall net migration to Alberta continues to climb, sparking demand in the province’s affordable real estate market. In Calgary, the sale of condominium apartments experienced a modest increase of almost three per cent in the first eight months of the year, with 5,722 units changing hands compared to 5,577 sales during the same period in 2023. Year-to-date average price has climbed 15 per cent year-over-year to just over $347,000, up from $301,868 in 2023, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board.
Growth has been noted in virtually all areas of the city, with the greatest percentage increases in sales occurring in Eau Claire (59.1 per cent), Killarney/Glengary (46.7 per cent), Garrison Woods (64.7 per cent) Garrison Green (23.5 per cent) and Currie Barracks (18.2 per cent). Most condominium apartment sales are occurring in the downtown district, where walkability plays a major role. Younger buyers tend to gravitate toward the core area, which allows residents to walk to work and amenities. Not surprisingly, the highest number of sales occurred in the Downtown East Village, where 129 units have been sold year to date, up from 110 sales one year ago. Significant gains have also been posted in average price, with Saddle Ridge experiencing an increase in values close to 36 per cent, rising to $317,997 in 2024, followed by Hillhurst, which increased 21.4 per cent to $423,873. Out of the 12 key Calgary markets analyzed by RE/MAX, seven posted double-digit gains in values.
Seller’s market conditions prevailed in the city throughout much of the year, with strong demand characterizing home-buying activity. Luxury apartment sales are on the upswing, with 49 apartments selling over $1 million so far this year compared to 41 during the same period in 2023, an increase of 19.5 per cent. Empty nesters, retirees and oil executives are behind the push for high-end units, most of which are in the downtown core offering spectacular views of both the Bow River and the mountains.
First-time buyers are most active in the suburbs, where they can get the best bang for their buck in communities such as McKenzie Town, Panorama Hills and Saddle Ridge. Apartment values in these areas average around $300,000, making them an attractive first step to home ownership, but also an affordable entry point for small investors.
After a heated spring market, inventory levels have improved substantially, with a relatively good selection of condominiums available for sale. Inventory levels hover at close to 1,500, up substantially from year-ago levels, with the sales-to-new listings ratio now sitting at 60 per cent. With interest rates trending lower, more buyers and a greater number of investors are expected to enter the market in the year ahead. Rather than waiting for next spring, when rates are lower but prices are higher, buyers may want to consider making a purchase today when supply is healthy and market conditions are less heated. Buying with a two-month closing could also capture the expected Bank of Canada rate cuts in October and December.
Edmonton
Home-buying activity in the Edmonton’s apartment segment exploded in 2024, with year-to-date sales almost 37 per cent ahead of year-ago levels. Affordability continues to be the catalyst for activity, with 3,351 units changing hands, up from 2,452 sales one year ago, making 2024 the best year for apartment sales in the past five years (for the January to August period). The average price of an apartment in Edmonton year-to-date is $200,951, up four per cent over year-ago levels, according to the Realtors Association of Edmonton, making Edmonton the lowest-priced major market in the country.
Immigration and in-migration have seriously contributed to the uptick in sales, with Edmonton reporting record population growth in 2023. Statistics Canada data for Alberta in the second quarter of 2024 show net interprovincial migration continues unabated, up almost 11 per cent, with 9,654 new residents coming from other Canadian centres – the majority hailing from Ontario and British Columbia. During the same period, immigration numbers remained relatively constant at 32,000. The sales-to-new-listings ratio now sits at 65 per cent—clear seller’s territory. Many condominiums are now moving in multiple offers.
The influx of newcomers has buoyed the city, with growth evident in neighbourhoods from the downtown core to the suburbs. Most are buying up properties, as opposed to renting, as they may have done in years past. Home ownership is more-easily attainable in Edmonton relative to other major cities, with the cost of a condominium apartment as low as $100,000. Newer condominiums are available for less than $300,000. Condominiums vary in shape and size in Edmonton, with row house condominiums featuring a backyard and a garage being a major attraction. Investors have also entered the picture, buying up older, tired condo units, fixing them up and renting them out for top dollar.
Lower development costs have also prompted an influx of out-of-province builders and developers who can quickly construct 20- and 30-floor high-rise towers or townhouse developments that fill the missing middle. Well-known builders in Ontario and British Columbia are moving into the Alberta market because of the lack of red tape. Several condominium buildings are currently underway, with many more in various stages of planning. With demand currently outpacing supply, the quicker these units come on stream, the better. By 2027, more balance market conditions are expected.
First-time buyers are also exceptionally active in the condo segment. Affordable price points and a notable lack of provincial and municipal land transfer taxes allow younger buyers to easily enter the market. Purchasers who are coming from other provinces quickly realize how far their dollar stretches in Edmonton, as the low cost of housing allows for more disposable income. Homeowners can pay their mortgage, go out for weekly dinners, and have an annual vacation, without too much stress.
Amenity-rich Oliver remains one of the most coveted hubs in Edmonton. West of 109th St. and the downtown core, the diverse neighbourhood offers a mix of new condominium development including walk ups, mid- and high-rise buildings, and peripheral spin off including retail shops, restaurants and entertainment, all within a short walk to the River Valley. Demand is especially high thanks to the walkability of the area and close proximity to the ICE District. Old Strathcona and Whyte Avenue are also sought-after. The trendy arts and cultural area boasts a mix of funky, bohemian-style and historic buildings, galleries, boutiques, shops, restaurants, cafes and a vibrant nightlife.
Edmonton’s housing market continues to be driven from the bottom up. Renters move into condo apartments, who move into condo row housing, who move into townhomes and eventually make their way to single-detached homes. The cycle is expected to be supported by a strong local and provincial economy heading into 2025 as monetary policy continues to ease, households and businesses increase spending, and oil prices climb.
Greater Toronto Area
Demand for condominium apartments and townhomes in the Greater Toronto Area has softened year-over-year, with sales off 2023 levels by eight per cent. Close to 16,800 condo apartments and townhomes changed hands between January and August 2024, down from 18,263 sales during the same period in 2023. Overall condominium values fell almost two per cent, with average price now sitting at $732,648 for apartments and townhomes, down from $747,039 during the same period in 2023, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
Two buyer pools are impacting the condominium market at present—investors and end users. The investment segment has stalled, as a growing number of condominium investors find themselves unable to cover their carrying costs when closing, despite a relatively strong rental market. In a July 2024 report, Urbanation and CIBC Economics examined the distribution of cash flow by dollar amount and found that 30 per cent of investors of new condos completed in 2023 were cash flow negative by $1,000 or more.
End users, especially those seeking larger one-bedroom-plus-den or two-bedroom units, are active in the condo market, particularly in the Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale (C03) and Bedford-Nortown, Lawrence Park and Forest Hill North (C04). Several new buildings in these areas have prompted a 25.3- and 13.3-per-cent uptick in sales activity respectively, while average price has edged slightly higher in Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale ($871,839 in 2024 compared to $863,681 in 2023).
Double-digit increases in year-to-date condominium sales in the 416 were also reported in west end communities such as High Park, South Parkdale, Swansea and Roncesvalles (up 15.7 per cent), High Park North, Junction, Lambton- Baby Point, and Runnymede-Bloor West Village (up 25.2 per cent); and in the east, the Beaches area (up 20.3 per cent). In the 905-area code, an uptick in condo activity was noted in Halton Hills (up 21.6 per cent) and Milton (up 13.3 per cent); and in Newmarket (up 30.6 per cent).
Close to 43 per cent of TRREB districts in the 416-area code reported modest gains in average price between January and August of 2024, led by the Annex, Yonge-St. Clair (C02), with a close to 14-per-cent increase in values. One in four markets in the 905-area code have posted gains in condominium values year-over-year.
Inventory levels continued to climb throughout much of the year as available resale units were joined by an influx of new completions on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Selection has vastly improved over year-ago levels, with over 8,300 apartment units actively listed for sale at the end of August, compared to 5,455 units during the same period in 2023. Almost 1,700 active listings were reported in the condo townhouse segment, up 53 per cent from the 1,110 posted in 2023. Pre-construction condominium assignments are still occurring as investors look to sell their units before registration, but the pace has subsided since 2023.
New completions have slowed in the second quarter of this year in Greater Toronto–Hamilton in large part due to the lack of investor interest, with starts off last year’s level by 67 per cent, according to Urbanation. Repercussions in the short-term will be negligible but the longer-term impact is expected to be substantial. Twenty-thousand new condominium units are planned for the GTA in 2025; 30,000 in 2026; and 40,000 in 2027. In 2028, the figure falls to 5,000 units. At that point, construction will heat up, but not fast enough to meet demand.
With a six-month supply of condominiums currently available for sale, the GTA market is heading into clear buyers’ territory. With values at or near bottom and Bank of Canada overnight rates trending lower, the fall market may represent the perfect storm for first-time buyers. As rates drop, more buyers are expected to enter the market in the months ahead. As absorption rates increase, the current oversupply will be diminished and demand will take flight, placing upward pressure on average prices once again.
Ottawa
Although downsizing empty nesters, retirees and first-time homebuyers fuelled steady demand for condominium apartments and walk-ups in Ottawa in 2024, the number of units sold between January and August fell short of year-ago levels. The Ottawa Real Estate Board reported just over 1,400 condominium apartments changed hands year to date, down less than one per cent from 2023. Meanwhile, values rose 2.3 per cent over last year, with average price rising to $447,042.
Affordability remains a major concern in Ottawa, despite changes to monetary policy in recent months. First-time buyers find themselves locked out of the freehold market, given high interest rates and stringent lending policies. Fixed mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks and are expected to continue to decline for the remainder of the year and into 2025, but potential buyers are still wary. Inventory levels have increased year over year as a result, with active listings in August hovering at 636, approximately 44.5 per cent ahead of 2023.
First-time buyers who choose to move forward with a purchase are typically looking for condominiums with low monthly maintenance fees and a parking spot priced from $500,000 to $550,000. The downtown core to Centretown and Dows Lake are popular destinations, given the proximity to the workplace, shops and restaurants. Those seeking to spend less could find a lower-priced unit in an older building for $350,000 but monthly condominium fees would be significantly higher. Suburban condominiums in areas such as Kanata, Barrhaven, and Orleans are also an option, priced from $375,000 to $400,000.
Tighter inventory levels exist in the luxury segment, where fewer condominium apartments are available over the $850,000 price point. Empty nesters and retirees are responsible for the lion’s share of activity in the top end of Ottawa’s condominium market. Westboro, the Golden Triangle, and Centretown, as well as neighbourhoods undergoing gentrification including The Glebe, Lansdowne, and Old Ottawa East, are most sought-after by buyers, many of whom are downsizing. Walkability is a major factor in these communities, with condominium apartments within walking distance to top restaurants and cafes, unique shops and picturesque walking paths.
As consumer confidence grows with each interest rate cut, more and more buyers should return to the market. Fourth-quarter sales are expected to be comparable to year-ago levels, but the outlook for spring of 2025 appears to be bright. Pent-up demand is building and those first into the market will reap the rewards.
Halifax Regional Municipality
After three consecutive interest rate cuts and the prospect of two more by year end, optimism is finally building in the Halifax Regional Municipality housing market. Average condominium values have edged ahead of year-ago levels in the first eight months of the year, now sitting at $484,491, up one per cent over the $479,558 reported during the same period in 2023. Condominium sales, however, declined year over year, with 510 properties changing hands between January and August, down close to seven per cent from last year’s levels, according to data compiled by the Nova Scotia Association of Realtors.
The trepidation that existed earlier in the year is subsiding and confidence is starting to grow as inflation is curtailed. The most competitive segment of the overall housing market remains under $600,000 in the Halifax area, with first-time buyers most active at this price point. Entry-level condominiums priced between $300,000 and $400,000 are most sought after, while semi-detached and townhomes tend to be the preferred choice over $400,000. At the top end of the market, condominium sales over $750,000 have experienced a modest uptick, with 35 properties sold so far this year, compared to 34 during the same period one year ago. Year-to-date average price in the top end of the market has softened from year-ago levels, sitting at almost $940,000, down from $957,300 during the same timeframe in 2023. Young professionals and retirees are largely behind the push for higher-end condominiums, with most sales occurring within the city’s downtown core.
Downward pressure on interest rates has prompted more sellers to list their condos in recent weeks, but there are no liquidation sales occurring. Inventory levels are up just over eight per cent from 2023. The vast majority of condominium apartments are found on the peninsula’s northeast quadrant, central and downtown cores. Some developments are situated on the waterfront in Dartmouth (near the ferry) and in Bedford, but supply is less plentiful in these areas.
Investors are also active in Halifax’s condominium market with an eye toward rental properties. Multi-unit housing remains exceptionally popular, with most investors interested in buildings with eight to 10 units. Four-plexes and duplexes are also an option, given the city’s low vacancy rates and upward pressure on rent.
In-migration and immigration have continued to play a role in the city’s growth, although the influx of newcomers has abated somewhat from peak levels. Positive international immigration, coupled with interprovincial migration, contributed to a net increase of 6,000 people in the second quarter of 2024. Major improvements are planned for the Dartmouth waterfront that will make it more pedestrian friendly in the coming years, including public spaces and cruise ships. The redevelopment hopes to mirror the success of Halifax’s vibrant waterfront area that continues to attract both visitors and residents to the area’s restaurants and cafes, outdoor kiosks, retail shops, playgrounds, museums, and the ferry terminal. With continuous investment and a bold new vision for the municipality, Halifax is expected to thrive in the years ahead, given the city’s affordable real estate and spectacular topography.
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