Hey, pull up a chair.It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy.
And I don't blame him for sticking with his daughter, but his daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb. She's a radical war hawk.Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrel shooting at her.Okay.Let's see how she feels about it.
You know, when the guns are trained on her face.
Well, that was a little look and do Donald Trump's dream journey.
Seriously.Talking about Liz Cheney.The thing that struck me, first of all, when I saw that you guys was here's a guy whose dad set it up so that he could dodge the draft and not go to Vietnam.And he's,
talking like, you know, he's Mr. Courageous, Captain Courageous, and he's running down Liz Cheney.But the bigger thing is, what the hell is he talking about?
I mean, using that language, which you should know is going to be whatever context it's used in, it is not going to be received well at this point in the campaign.I think this reflects
Part of what this week has been about, Trump continues to step all over his own message.
Yeah, that's all he seems to be able to do.I mean, Trump, it was revealing, like a lot of these Trump unhinged moments are, because Donald Trump is a candy-ass draft dodger who likes to talk like a tough guy thug.He's fundamentally a fraud.
That's what I meant, but I didn't say it quite as directly as you. That's what we have Murphy for.
Yeah, that's me, that's me.And it was repulsive.In the moment, we have a specter of political violence everywhere, including a bullet that nicked his ear.
You would think his calculus would include, boy, I'm on the national spotlight, I wanna be head of state, and, you know, you'd think he would have a filter, but he doesn't.
He's driven totally by his greed and his id and his insecurity. You wouldn't, you wouldn't, you wouldn't think he would have a filter at all because we have watched him for the last 10 years and we don't think he has a filter.
The ugly stuff is spraying out now.
That, I mean, more than usual.I have to say though, just, just to be like, be even more direct about this.It's appalling.It's like repulsive.And it is, to Mike's point, it is him projecting his violent fantasies onto a woman he hates.
And I actually, if you were thinking he was rational, a rational candidate, he'd be like, Hey, here's a, not a great idea.
Let's get up in the closing days of the campaign and talk about a violent fantasy by which a woman, who I clearly have animosity for, gets shot in the face.
There's no context in which that's gonna be, well, he was talking about, he was just calling her a chicken hawk or whatever.Obviously, it's bad in terms of the message flow, but it actually tells you everything you need to know about what Trump is.
It's reflecting MRI of the soul, David, MRI of the soul.
Yeah, I was about to go there, too.Exactly.You got it right, Axelrod.I know you patented that thing and it's on t-shirts all over the country, but this is the moment, this week.
We'll let people know where they can get them, but... Yeah, we're seeing what Trump really is under pressure. So, this week, Trump did that.
I was in the studio when his transition director, Howard Ludnick, gets into a debate with Caitlin Collins about vaccines and vaccine safety, as he talks about the role that Robert Kennedy would play on health.
And by the way, listen to this clip here from RFK himself, affirming the fact that he's going to play a big role on health.
The key that I think, you know, that President Trump has promised me is control of the public health agencies, which are HHS and its sub-agencies, CDC, FDA, NIH, and a few others, and then also the USDA,
Which is which you know is key to making America healthy because we've got to get off of.
uh seed oils and we've got to get off of so you know the question is who's going to cure him and when you get around to what he'll destroy he's got another brain another brain worm apparently yeah uh and then you had uh speaker johnson i don't have that's uh that uh bite but talking about uh you know radically changing obamacare
I mean, I guess my point is, this is not the way Trump's campaign wants him to close.This is not the close that they want.And does it matter?
Well, that's a great question.I mean, they made the devil's deal.So, you know, when Faust comes back and says, boy, I really wish the details were better, I don't have any sympathy.
It's true that's La Cervita and Wiles are sitting in a bunker somewhere with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver, just, you know, staring and thinking of the campaign that could have been the last two weeks.But as you say, they're still in the hunt.
because the powerful force under Trump, which is throw the bums out, inflation, hurt me, is really powerful.So maybe the Trump campaign, all the technical stuff we like to obsess about and care about, isn't as important.
Well, let me just suggest two things.One, unlike the Liz Cheney comment, The RFK thing, at least I understand it in a strategic sense.
If you look at the numbers in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Kennedy's name is still on the ballot, it looks like it's actually hurting Trump a little bit there because there are these RFK voters who, because they sued to try to get his name off the ballot, they failed.
That's a point in each one of those states.And so here he is, doing this wildly recklessly responsible thing and threatening us that he's going to turn over public health to a lunatic.But I understand why he's doing that.
He's trying to basically say to Bobby Kennedy voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, you'll get Bobby Kennedy on the issues you want if you vote for me.
And then there's the other strategic rationale for the larger... I'm not saying it's... People are telling me, I'm sure people are telling me he's got a problem with that.So he's trying to be nice.
Do you think Bobby R.F.K is going to actually get that job?Is that promise worth the paper it's written on?If I were R.F.K, I wouldn't assume that I was going to be actually getting what I was promised.
But the other question, and I ask you two guys this, right?In the end, I have this feeling we're going to look at this election and it's going to be it's the girls versus boys election.
And if there's anything that gives Democrats hope right now, and should, is that the gender gap on the early vote, which is a bad predictor, but it's huge.
It's 55 to 45 across the battleground states, and they are freaking out about not getting these guys to turn out.
And a lot of this just seems to me, like the Liz Cheney thing, the RFK thing, all of this stuff just seems to be, he's trying to whip up what he imagines is the thing that will get dudes to go and vote for him.
I'm not saying that's the correct calculus, but that seems what he's trying to do.There's leading hard into the list.Cheney fantasy is, you know, a call of duty fantasy.Try to get a bunch of guys to show up.
The question I have about that, John, is you pursue that strategy at what cost?And who, you know, you're also, there are women, Republican women, independent women, and you can drive them the other way.
One of the things about the, you know, I think that Harris's caution has plagued her in this campaign, but it's an asset in the closing days of the campaign because she's sticking to her message.
And his incaution is part of his authenticity, but I think it's hurting him in this campaign because he can't stick to his message.
I do, too.Yeah, look, there's a big opportunity cost to being Donald Trump in this election.Totally.Because he can't.If he was doing four years ago, you were better off and he was campaigning with a milk carton, he'd be doing a lot better off.
You're right.The total frame now is boys versus girls.And the subtext to that, at least among kind of the elite as well, more girls vote than boys, so she's going to win.And that might be right.
On the other hand, I would encourage people to spend a little more time on the north side of Detroit.There are some ladies in Macomb County that Trump looked like Pericles, the thoughtful statesman.So, you know, it's blurrier than that.
I do think you're right about, for once, her caution just to pound her stuff.And she's got her stuff down pretty good now.You know, I watched a couple of her rallies in the last 72 hours.The gift she's got, that caution gives her,
is even when something dumb happens like Biden doing garbage, which we should talk about, but go ahead.Yeah.Yeah.
But 24 hours later, Vance will come out and say, yeah, they're all trans because they want to get into Cornell or Trump will go threaten.It will go do a creepy Liz Cheney nine barrels dream journal thing, and they take it back to the crazy.
So that is a huge gift.Now they're out of time.The opportunity cost has been huge to Trump.
And Mike, to just let me just quickly say, having spent some time, as you guys both know, in Michigan last weekend, you know, you look at those states, those blue wall states, which I think we probably all agree is probably the likeliest way she wins still.
This gender dynamic, you know, some people you would know, Mike, in Michigan are like, Trump is the factor that has turned the women of Michigan, and in some respects also in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, it's radicalized women.
And you look at the results of the elections in 18, 20, and 22 through Michigan.And again, to a lesser extent in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.He has built an anti-Trump majority.He's radicalized women.
I have guys our age saying to me, my wife and daughter don't care about politics, but Donald Trump has turned them into the most reliable voters on earth.
And I think that's a huge dynamic to your point, David, about what it's costing him in this gender dynamic thing. you know, is, is powerful and really powerful in those states.
Can I just, uh, to that end, let me, uh, I don't, I think this must be a digital ad.
I don't think they're using it broadly, but let's look at this, uh, ad that they're running, uh, or that they released at least that speaks to this issue of are there hidden, are there hidden Harris votes among Republican women, perhaps non-college white women.
So let's take a look at this.
Your turn, honey.In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want.And no one will ever know.Did you make the right choice?
Remember, what happens in the booth stays in the booth.Vote Harris Walls.
Just to describe it for our audio-only people, and it's another good reason to check us out on YouTube, you see two couples walk into a voting center, and they both have asshole Trump husbands.
And in a classic bit of kind of lefty overkill, hey, we're putting an American flag hat on one of the women.Get it?She must be a Republican.
So anyway, the two women go in the booth after the jerk husband and say, all right, little lady, you know what to do, burp. And then they lock eyes over it, and they, of course, vote for Harris.
I think that psychology is out there happening on its own.I think the ad is a little bit clumsy.
I'm not asking about the ad.I'm asking about the phenomenon.
Do you think it's real?Yeah, it's there.I think it's real, and I think they're – and you've seen it in the messaging.
You know, the Michelle Obama speech that I saw in Kalamazoo, which encapsulated the two key, I would strike me as two of the key dynamics here, which is that phenomenon, not just the hidden vote phenomenon, but the, you know, pushing up the numbers with white suburban.
basically independent Republican leaning women and white college men, white college educated men, where she seems to be overperforming who are, you know, her, the Michelle message, which was driven almost totally on women's health at male voters, but male college educated voters.
And there, I mean, again, if she wins the election in those States, that's going to be the thing that's going to have brought her across.
I mean, the only question I had about that was, can you shame those guys into,
Well, I don't think it's shaming, as Murphy's pointed out a lot of times.There are a lot of college educated white men who see the self-interest in being in favor of women's reproductive rights.No, no, no, I understand.
But in any case, yeah, because, you know, like there was a huge outpouring of early vote among Republican women in the suburbs of Atlanta, for example.You were assuming that they're voting for Trump because they're Republicans.But is that the case?
I think that's one of the great mysteries of this campaign.
Oh, I think it'll underperform. We're going to know with all the, you know, the exits and it's kind of the new exits because it's based so much on polling people who just voted by mail are going to be interesting.
But do I think it'll be, you know, it is a sideshow to the larger boy versus girl election thing, which I think is a little too easy and a little too neat.But yeah, I think you will find college-educated white Republican women.
are going to overwhelmingly vote for Trump, but not at historical norms for them.You will look at places like Kent County in Michigan, where K-Zoo, the college town where she went, Kalamazoo.We Michiganders call it K-Zoo because it's hard to spell.
It looks like L.A.there.It doesn't look like Michigan.
But believe me, my Michigan blood courses through my veins.Why do I have ebpolitics.org over my shoulder trying to help save the American damn auto industry?Anyway, I'll allow that too.I call that Hacks Fluid.It helps bring the thoughts forward.
At the edges, that's going to make a difference in some of these key places.
I think if you kind of follow where there is a big chunk of those kind of voters, it's kind of a crescent from Scottsdale, where you often work undercover among the hours, up through Nevada, and then right across the industrial Midwest.
It's going to be a factor in Wisconsin, the Philly suburbs.You know, that vote is in all the places we care about.Go ahead, John.
Just one last quick thing, which is to say that brings us back to the Liz Cheney thing we started the show with, which is that's what the Liz Cheney strategy obviously has been all about.
But I'll say also, you know, Harris is going to church tomorrow morning, Sunday morning in Detroit, and then going out to East Lansing, just to stick with Michigan for a second.
And the other factor here is she's in Detroit, she's doing all these big cities to try to make sure the black vote turns out.And the numbers in Detroit right now, there's been this indicator.
Democrats basically win that state when you get the turnout in Detroit over 50%. The folks in Detroit are now saying they think they could have turnout in Detroit at 54, 53% right now.And that's another factor here that plays into this.
It's this weird combo of white suburban voters, some of them Republican, with trying to get the right level of black turnout in these big cities.
And if you can put that together the right way, again, it's super close, but that's how you win those states.
Those are two prongs of what we should be looking at.The third is this big mystery as to whether there is this hidden Trump voters, like there have been in the last two elections, who are going to defy polling, come out in larger numbers.
Now, this has become a huge debate in the polling world. You know, I think there's some merit to this.I think pollsters are tired of being called dumb shits every election cycle.So they are.So they are.You know, it's not untoward.
They are playing with their weightings to try and make sure that they get Trump voters in there who they're overestimate.
And they could overestimate them.
And also, there's the cultural factor of all this stuff.Just to give you a bigger migraine, you know, when you see the ads with the jerk Trump husband, kind of simplistically, and the smart wives, and why do they marry these guys?
But, you know, how's the guy flying a lathe in St.Clair County, Michigan, thinking about that?Oh, I'm a jerk because I don't really think we ought to have a left-wing president from Oakland, California. who screwed up immigration.
So, you know, politics is like all equations, every reaction has a counter-reaction.
And, you know, some of this stuff, because somebody was writing about the Milwaukee rally, oh, smart political strategy, you got to turn out African-American vote in Milwaukee, so we have the all-black rally.
Yeah, but then we're sending, you know, a message that in our tribal society can activate other people to say, oh, I don't know, is that all she's about? So, you know, it's tricky.And the truth is, polling's over now.Now we have to vote.Thank God.
Can I just say something?This is apropos to nothing, but, I mean, I... Then say it.
Talk about a tease.Say it.Talk about a tease.
Talk about undersell.I'm tired of segues, okay?I'm just gonna go for it.It's like Trump does that.Trump is making three stops in North Carolina this weekend.Amazing.The Harris campaign had
They reduced their buy to almost nothing at the beginning of the week.They just threw a million and a half on TV in North Carolina.I don't know what it means, but obviously, they both think that something is going on there.So, I don't know.
But, boy, bad sign, though.I don't like campaigns where Don Knotts is at the wheel.Cut all the TV, double the TV, yikes.
Well, maybe, maybe.I think you shift in a presidential race.You do shift things around for a final weekend.Go ahead, John.
Let me just say to the pollsters of America, if you're frustrated with being called dumb shits over and over again, You should talk to some of us, cause we've got a lot of coping strategies for that, that we've worked out over the years.
When you guys were still in short pants.
Um, yeah, we almost called this podcast.Dumb shits on tap.I thought the logo would be hard to design.Murphy's too fragile.Murphy's ego was too fragile.
I couldn't take it.That's right.
But talk about Don Knotts at the wheel, though, Mike.
It's like, you've got Trump, you know, in one track is, hey, let's go to New York, New Mexico, and Virginia, and New Mexico, and Virginia, and like, let's do a bunch of states that I don't have any chance of winning.There's no management.
Trump does what he wants. And then on the next track, it's, hey, let's do three stops in North Carolina because we think our polling is weakening there.
It's like his decision, the charity, the charitable interpretation is that they are, they are trying to, they think they can make a play in those States.I don't think they can.
So I think the real explanation is largely that it's virgin territory where he can get crowds that he's not getting.
Yeah.I've seen the act and. Warren.And he'll get national media either way, and it's a nationalized campaign.Of course, how he gets it is not necessarily the best for him.
Well, there could be something else happening.I'll do the narcotics section of the pod here for our Democrat listeners who are all on the verge of a nervous breakdown over this thing. I did a tweet about this on Friday, kind of the scorecard.
If you look at vibes, it's going her way because she's having an okay week other than the garbage thing Biden gave her.And he's not doing it.We talked about this.
And I do want to play the crazy meltdown over the microphone because that's another MRI of the soul. So, the vibes are going her way, I think.And if he's got...if he does have a ceiling, he's sure bolting it down this week by reminding everybody why.
So, they could be saying some hippity-hoppity stuff in their southern states, in Arizona, in Georgia, which is also black turnout function, and North Carolina, and they might be prying his Don Nazi...
orange claws off the wheel to know you don't get to indulge yourself every day and go to New Mexico and New York.We need you in North Carolina because they're freaking out.I mean, there could be a final move happening here.
And if there is one, you can argue it's to him because of her weaknesses and the big need to fire him and the inflation and all that.But it could be going to her, too.
Just to finish this one point, the Madison Square Garden rally, which I think a lot of us, you know, there's, well, he just wants to play the garden or, you know, who knows what.
Call it by its real name, Madison Avenue, Madison Square Garden on the Rhine.
Yes, you now get, if you're a Hacks on Tap listener, you heard Mike and Murphy, they make that joke in the last episode.And in this one, it's a good joke though, so we come back to it.It's classic.
But it turned out to be seven hour, like the Woodstock of hate.
Yes, but more importantly, if someone somewhere did this data analysis, it actually broke through in a way that very little does at this point.
The amount of the search traffic coming out of that thing on the comedian's name, that guy Hinchcliffe, if you call him a comedian, but the guy who made the Puerto Rico joke, just spiked like crazy.How much of Trump's craziness ever break through?
A lot of times it doesn't because everyone just sort of, oh, it's Trump.He's always fucking nuts.That thing
To closing badly, that rally did actually break through in the kind of national consciousness, not just cable coverage, but people going to them.
Well, the echo in Latino pop culture too, Bad Bunny, all that.
One guy it broke through with is the president.Yes.So as Kamala Harris was giving her closing argument outside the White House, He was inside the White House doing a small Zoom with a group of Hispanic supporters, and this is part of what he said.
The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.His demonization of Latinaism is unconscionable, and it's un-American.It's totally contrary to everything we've done.
so this uh this this basically she was outside saying i am not going to demonize my opponents i'm not going to uh treat them as enemies i'm going to give them a seat at the table uh and um he and he's doing something else i don't know i'm not going to
I don't know what to say about it, other than he basically, the effect of it was for the next 24 hours, he was half the story.And anything where he pushes into the race is not helpful.
But she did use it as an opportunity, let's listen to this, to do what she's had a hard time doing, which is separate herself a little.
First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me be clear.I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for.I believe that the work that I do is about representing all the people, whether they support me or not.
And as president of the United States, I will be a president for all Americans, whether you vote for me or not.
So I think that was probably good that, I mean, it was necessary.
It was also good that she did it.Good in a bad thing, you know.Yeah.It's the right move, but Biden put it back on that, and then Trump got to almost die getting into a garbage truck, to quote Tim Walz, who got off a pretty good line.
and got a good sound bite of his own that might have traveled farther than hers.You know, they've kind of hit Walsh after the bait.I think that was a mistake.Let him be Tim.He got off.
Did you see, did you watch that?Them trying to stuff Trump into the garbage truck?Incredible.
It was like he had to get hoisted into the garbage truck.And then he got in there and he looked like Ralph Cramden to me.You're the only guy Murphy who will understand the reference, but Ralph Cramden and the Honeymooners.
I know that reference, too.I'm a Ralph Cramden guy.
Oh, okay, good.Well, I didn't give you the cultural awareness credit that I should have given you.
The scary part was when 12 alert secret servicemen tried to wrestle the threatening garbage truck to the ground.They turned off the camera.But Walt said the right line.Trump looked terrible.And that bite got elevated, too.
But still, they would have been rather talking Trump's Bund rally for another day or two. And then thank God for J.D.Vance, who decided to weigh in with the Ivy Trans thing to push it back on Trump crazy.
I don't have that.I don't have that said tape from the Joe Rogan show.But J.D.Vance suggested that young men were having were transitioning in order to improve their chances to get into young middle class white men to get into Ivy League schools.
Listeners who don't know what was the wall's line, Mike?
Well, there's this funny bit of tape of Trump trying to lurch into a garbage truck.And it was a fair fight between Trump and the garbage truck for about eight seconds.And it's pretty funny.
And Walsh was in front of a crowd somewhere, and he said he damn near killed himself trying to get into a garbage truck.And their big laugh.And, of course, that made it irresistible to play it one more time on cable.
Because a lot of what we're doing now, it's basketball.Grab the ball.And Walsh managed to grab it for a few hours. You know, the Trump people are very good at getting the ball stolen from them through their own incompetence.And they did it yet again.
And in the waning hours, it's gold.
Can we spend a few minutes looking at some ads?I've got a bunch of ads that I think reflect the message that the campaigns would like to close on.
Allow me to make just one comment on the last thing that Mike said, which is, if you guys saw that video of Trump trying to get in that truck, He reached out for the candle and he couldn't quite get it.His right leg kind of buckled backwards.
There's some video that people put together on the internet of various events where Trump seems to have some kind of a motor thing going on with his right leg where he kind of drags his right leg behind him in a pretty dramatic way.
I'm only raising it just because
If that video had been shown of either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, you would have had days of cable coverage about I still am amazed at how Trump gets away with these things that are either signs of mental, emotional or physical decline that people don't jump on.
Because that video, it's not just the like. he's heavy and he had a hard time getting up into the cab.He looks like he was drunk.He kind of like, he reached out for the handle and then kind of fell away from it.
And I just amazed that the double standard, I, some of these double standard arguments I think are bullshit, but this particular one, the fact that Trump's decline is under covered, I think is a genuine, is a genuine thing.
And I don't know how much he gets away with anyway.
All right, Dr. Heilman, let's move on to these… Dr. Heilman Let's… Genie ought to do a thing, spryly jumping in and out of five garbage trucks tomorrow, challenge him to a garbage truck off, or meet him in Wyoming with one rifle each and lock him in a 20-acre place, and, you know, I think it would be more than a fair fight.
But let's look at ads.It's showtime.
Dr. Heilman So here's a spot that I think the campaign would like Trump to close on
Kamala backed Biden on everything.She was the deciding vote for his disastrous economic agenda.They raised taxes on the middle class, and prices soared.
Kamala was in charge of his open border policies, giving welfare to illegals while Americans struggle, and their weakness invited wars.Now Kamala wants to double down on failure.It's time to turn the page on Joe and Kamala's failed agenda.
President Trump fights for you.His strength kept us safe.Trump cut taxes for families.Prices were lower and the border secure.Now President Trump can do it again.
And we are going to launch a new golden age of American success for the citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed.
Remember, Kamala broke it.President Trump will fix it.
All right, we'll leave the fact-checking to the fact-checkers.
They just had mini-strokes watching that.But yes, it's exactly the argument.He ought to be pounding.He'd be doing better.
Can I ask you two ad makers something while we prepare?I don't know if you have another ad to play, David, but we have a few.
I know you guys, people in the ad business, people who make ads for political candidates, they like to see a lot of spending at all times is good spending.
But I believe I've learned over the years, I believe I've learned from both of you two over many years that the time when paid media matters least or the circumstance, is in the closing days of a presidential campaign.
Were the two well-defined candidates, like, do these matter, I guess?
Or is this about your defense?Well, I thought this was your way of saying you don't want to look at any more ads.
No, I love looking at ads.I think it's fun, but I just want to know if it's going to move any votes.
Well, I think the question, it's not going to move many votes.It doesn't move people who are just checking in.Does it help clarify?
I mean, really, when you're in a campaign, I think Murphy would agree, it's a battle of definition and you want to kind of, you want to
You want to guide people in how they are thinking about the race, what the choice is about going into the polling place.So I think it's useful, but yes, I think this is why him not delivering the message is so damaging.
In a close race, you can't prove it doesn't do anything good, and it's all they can do.I mean, think about you're sitting there in Trump headquarters.
You get a call from the road, oh, President Trump just ate a bar of soap, and now the plane is heading to Salt Lake City.He wants to do a rally there. You're like, oh, I can't control the lunatic on the plane.Thank God he's not going to Philly again.
I know what I can do.I can throw these ads on there.And so you do it because it's all you got.And they're the right ads for them.I mean, I think it was a little overstuffed.I can get into critiques.But fundamentally, it's the argument.So why not?
You know, you're thinking, well, if we lose by eight votes, we have the money.It's not my money.Spend it.And I might even make a little on it.So spend it.
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So let me run a couple on the Harris side, and I think these two encompass a lot of what her closing argument is about.
Donald Trump has always wanted unchecked power.
I have the right to do whatever I want as president.
And with Project 2025, he'll get it.No guardrails.This time, he will eliminate protections for pre-existing conditions, and he'll cut Social Security and Medicare to give more tax cuts to billionaires.
Donald Trump is more unhinged and unstable than ever.If we give him total power, he'll put everything at risk.
I'm Kamala Harris, and I approve this message.
That was not the spot actually that I meant to run, but since I did run it, I'll do the ones I wanted to run after this.That was a spot from the campaign.I don't like that spot.
Yeah, I don't like it either.Meh.First of all, if you're doing the risk spot, Donald Trump, day one, Obamacare, gone.30% tariff on everything with big, strong graphics, bang.At 30% on everything you buy, clothes, baby toys, gone, gone, gone.
Donald Trump, gone.Craig's in the White House, a country in chaos.Risk abroad, you know, Shoji.Bang, bang, bang, hit him over the head with scary shit that happens on day one.Donald Trump has an enemies list.
I have a plan for the middle class, just punchy and tight.
Well, let me run an ad that their super PAC did that I think is more akin to what I think I would be doing on that score.
second term, but no plan to punish corporations who rip you off.Trump is running to get revenge for himself.Kamala is running to get results for you.Her plans?
Cut middle class taxes and price gouging, protect Medicare and Social Security, and make life more affordable.
I will always put the middle class and working families first.
Trump fights for Trump.Kamala fights for you.FFPAC is responsible for the content of this ad.
Boy, it's the first future forward spot I've really liked.You know, a lot of other stuff I haven't.But that's great.
I think that spot is a great closing spot.Because, again, if you think of these spots as a way to frame the final decision, and it's perfectly suited for this moment because Trump is spewing all over his political enemies right now. Yeah.
So Heilman, you're quiet over there.
Uh, well, no, I was just thinking about, well, first of all, I think, I think that's a good spot.Second of all, I was thinking about the various future forward spots.
And I think David, at one point you sent one that we didn't play the last episode, which had like a blue collar worker, um, who was basically talking about who braised the Elon question and was like sort of being very kind of like,
Actually, let's do it.We have it here.
They've done some good ads at the end on some of the populist economic stuff that I think have been strong.
I'm a steel worker.I grew up right here on the little family farm.Trump was here campaigning with Elon Musk.Now, there's a prime example of who he keeps close.Donald Trump cares about his billionaire friends.
He's just going to turn around and give them more tax breaks.McConnell and Harris is fighting for the working class. She'll make billionaires pay their fair share.That way, working people get a fair shot.
Elon Musk is voting for his money, and I'm voting for mine.And I'm voting for Kamala Harris.
FFPAC is responsible for the content of this ad.
Yeah, punchy copy land at the end, my money is.Punchy copy, right?I don't like it as much as the other one, but it's punchy, and the guy is good, which is the key to a spot like that.
The one thing I would say, just as a technical matter, Murphy, since we're geeking out, I don't like giving, I don't like turning This guy's very, very good.I think the line at the end, which I'm told he ad-libbed, it was great.
I don't like giving people copy and treating them like actors and making, you know, because it sounds like copy.Yeah, there's some chunky reading there.
Yeah, but I think the guy was gold.They might have been able to get more out of him, but still solid, I think.The other ad far superior to me, but yeah.
The future forward guys have basically been very focused on the economic issues.And I think that has been helpful.That has been helpful to her.
But there's one more spot I want to play, which is the one I meant to start with, which I think is also very, very important to Harris.
Even punishment for abortion, yes or no?There has to be some form of punishment.For the woman?
Yeah.And the punishment is real.Women denied care, unable to get pregnant again, traumatized, scarred for life.Young women who didn't need to die.Now one in three women live under a Trump abortion ban.And if he's elected, everyone will.
There has to be some form of punishment.I'm Kamala Harris, and I approve this message.
Creatively, I think less would have been a little more.
I'm not asking you to critique this, but you're like a focus group now.I mean, I know, I know.Focus groups, they say, oh, I think they should know.
I'm just about the message.OK, I think the message was one click overwrought because it's so powerful you don't need to scream it in all caps quite as much.
But an abortion spot about Trump ban and with the great bite they have of Trump punishing women, yeah, gold.
Yeah.Heilman, I think that, you know, we can sort of quibble about the execution, but I think that's a pretty powerful spot.
I think everything that—and the thing, what you've noticed, at least I have in the last week, is that that is a place where A lot of powerful voices are out in the free media ecosystem highlighting this issue.And I keep coming back to it again.
I think, you know, in the end, if Harris wins, it's going to be the combination of Trump and Dobbs and driving, you know, through the roof female turnout.That's going to be the story of the election.If she wins, that's what she's going to win.
On the back of it, I think everything that amplifies that message in paid and earned media is good for them.And you see it on late night.You see it on late night.You see it in the podcast world.You see it in every media channel right now.
A lot of very strong surrogates and a lot of very powerful women's stories, individual stories of things that have happened to women on this front.
They're all, I think, helpful, you know, because that's the biggest, to me, the biggest overriding dynamic of the election.
Wouldn't it be ironic if Justice Alito ended up being the most valuable player for Democrats in 2024, as he was in 22?Yes, Atlantis.Totally.Atlantis.So one last thing I wanted to raise with you guys that I've been obsessing about
or at least the things that it's something I've been obsessing about that I can talk about on a podcast.But this is what Elon Musk is doing in Pennsylvania.You know, it's we didn't talk about this last time, did we?
No, he is, you know, he has approached the problem of Pennsylvania like an engineer.Yes.And he came up with a scheme, and the scheme is pretty ingenious.
This is the million-dollar payola thing.
Yeah, which is, you know, he's paying people a hundred dollars to sign a petition that says you support the, you know, free speech and the Second Amendment. So, it is like a Rorschach test for Trump voters.
You have to be a registered voter to get the 100.
Then they can cross-match that with people who have voted and people who haven't voted, and they can identify irregular voters who may or may not come out, and they can concentrate their organizing on those people.
And to juice the thing, he's giving people $47 if they refer anybody. And he is having a lottery where you can win a million dollars if you... In fact, I think we ought to sign the damn petition.
I was going to say, how do I sign up for this?I've seen this before.It's pretty clever.
In Eastern Europe, where an oligarch who committed suicide by shooting himself seven times with a little help from Putin, who had escaped Russia and wanted to kind of meddle in the elections, in the state-owned betting parlors there, you could bet on the election.
So he took millions of dollars, manipulated the odds, so the party he wanted to win paid eight to one. if you put 20 kazookus down on it.It was kind of a clever idea.
And I've done mall campaigns where just thinking aloud, we asked the lawyers, hey, can we give everybody who lives and votes here a $500 gift certificate for the new mall?
So this is kind of a pure capitalist way to do it, but it's gross, particularly in this level of the campaign.
Yeah, I'm not judging the ethics or morality of it.I'm just, this is tax on top.I'm just talking about the pure efficacy of it.And I think it's pretty smart in a race that's very marginal.
Yeah, it might do a little.Except for the fact that, you know, and this is from my, again, from this trip to Michigan, where you talk to the people who are doing the ground game for Harris there, and they are like,
The Obama ground game was state-of-the-art in 8 and 12 and you know that was someone's compared it They said that was like a really really great typewriter compared to this like quantum computer They built for the for the ground game in Michigan and in Pennsylvania in Wisconsin this time around and Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk who got Basically got outsourced the the ground right in those blue wall states by Trump to their super PACs
Yes, those on the ground in those states, the Harris Field people are like, this is a joke.
They may know how to build electric cars and they may know how to put a rocket in space, but they have no idea how to lead the kinds of, as you guys both know,
The volunteers and the field teams have to be motivated by something that is mission driven, not just money driven.
And those, I think, again, in a really close race, that's where that stuff can make a difference of a point or a half a point that could push her over the line.
And I think that will be a big mistake on Trump's part, on the Trump campaign's part, in deciding to outsource all that shit to super PACs.
Yes, we've talked about this before.
Because some of the consultants are just saying it's people.But the Dems will be better at it in the places where ground game can help.
I just had somebody text me from South Las Vegas, huge line, early voting, all Trump signs, can't see any Harris stuff.Ground game, what ground game?People tend to organize where they're already winning really well.
You know, college tones, but it drives up net turnout.Everybody you create who may not vote, it goes to the big score in a statewide race.
Just let me say two things to what Heilman said.One is, I talked to folks in Pennsylvania who think that that can produce tens of thousands of additional voters for...I'm talking about Democrats.
who've told me that they think it could produce tens of thousands of additional votes that Trump otherwise wouldn't get.It being Elon's gambit, what you're saying.Elon's gambit.That's true.That may be true.
What you're saying is also true, which is, I think that the thing that may win this election is that the ground game
in the three northern states, touching the Great Lakes, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, is going to be meaningful and advantageous.
I would add Nevada too, Clark County in particular, but also Wausau.Totally. same argument.
Let us conclude in this mini-podcast where we've concluded every other podcast, which is to say, who the hell knows?Who the hell knows?
Yeah, exactly.We're going to start getting drunk in two hours and wake us up. You'll see Axelrod on CNN.I'm going to be of Brian Williams on Amazon.Heilman is going to be on the Colossus known as NBC, MSNBC.
So you'll watch us just like you freak out in real time, depending on what America decides to do.But we're not doing a mailbag on this special jittery Saturday, but we do have... This mini episode has already gone 50 minutes.
By the way, Mike, it's very presumptuous of you to assume that we're not already drunk.
Well, we broke our rule for this one because we wanted to remember what the election was.Yeah, I'm up early, exactly, because you guys are already having lunch.I want to end with some beautiful audio.
The Milwaukee meltdown, where going back to violence after he was done with Cheney, he decided the poor kid backstage is the problem.Let's hear what happens when Donald Trump has a microphone that makes him mad.
Uh-huh.You got to be kidding.Do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage?You want to see me?I don't mind if they want to come up a little forward at something, but it's a pretty stupid situation.But that's okay.
I get so angry, I'm up here seething.I'm seething.I'm working my ass off with this stupid mic. I'm blowing out my left arm, and now I'm going to blow out my right arm, and I'm blowing out my damn throat, too, because he's stupid people.
I'll make you a deal.Pretend you're listening to it perfectly, and I'll come back and do another one, okay, with a decent...
There's a guy who doesn't look like he's terribly confident.
No, he's cracking up the MRI.We're finding a lot of rods and problems in his head here.
Well, we'll see if enough voters read the scan because, you know, Kamala Harris has faced a lot of headwinds in this race.I mean, some, you know, have to do with with her, but mostly
They have to do with people's attitude about the direction of the country, the economy, and Biden.And the fact that she's in a position to maybe win this race is pretty remarkable in some ways.
I will just say to David's point, very quickly, just to put a cap on this.I think if she loses, if Kamala Harris loses this election,
There's going to be blame to go around and people will blame a lot of people, but from the largest perspective, the idea that a sitting vice president could be could be made the nominee of the party in August of the election year.
and told you have 90 days to introduce yourself to the country and take out Donald Trump.The degree of difficulty there is so high when you're the vice president to a president with a 39%, 40% approval rating and on the wrong track at like 70.
That's like the fact that she's competitive in this race is a miracle.It's a miracle that she's done.
Don't create on a curve.She's got democracy in her hand.Step up and win.If she loses, it's on her. Hey, I'm not saying she's performed perfectly.
I'm not saying she performed perfectly, Mike, but think about that.No, no, no.It's a legit point.I agree.It's tough.
That's a hard road out.The stakes are high enough that sometimes the answers don't screw up.
Well, I think there's no doubt about that.As the great Vince Lombardi said, winning isn't winning isn't the isn't the only what did he say?Winning isn't everything.It's the only thing.It's the only thing.Yeah.Only thing.
So, in this case, in this case, yes, and you know, but we'll see what we're going to know soon.
But we should get, we're going to get together again on Monday to evaluate what happened over the weekend and take one last look at the thing and see if we're clear on what might happen.
My guess is we won't be, but it'll be fun to chew on it.I am hoping today I'm going to see the spot I'd be doing on the Internet.
They're two days late, but get a garbage truck, get an actor with a good rubber face playing the driver and intercut it with the footage.
So he's got his red hat and he's watching this red wig bouncing under the window and, you know, and let him tell the story of his face.And then, of course, the hat comes off and just a slow turn. But onward, gentlemen.Don't forget to vote, America.
Yeah.Yeah, please.All right, guys.We'll see you Monday.
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