There is more than one way to measure expected inflation. But which methods are most reliable, and how well did they predict the upward trend in European inflation from 2021 onwards? Ricardo Reis talks to Tim Phillips.

How does the rate of tax that firms pay relate to their carbon emissions? If firms that pay less emit more, then taxation may be delivering a subsidy on pollution. If those that pay less emit less, then taxation may also be helping to protect the environment. Luigi Iovino and Julien Sauvagnat of Bocconi University tell Tim Phillips whether browner firms pay more or less tax – and why.

Stress testing can potentially capture the impact of climate change on the health of the financial system. But Dirk Schoenmaker tells Tim Phillips that, in their current form, these exercises underestimate the impact of changes in our climate.

When Thomas Hobbes published Leviathan in the 17th century, he argued that the state has absolute authority over its citizens. The principal that the state’s monopoly of institutionalised violence keeps the peace is now widely accepted – but is this true, or is it the checks and balances on that power prevent conflict? Gerard Roland talks to Tim Phillips.

Bonus episode: At the American Economic Association’s annual meeting 2023 in New Orleans, CEPR got the chance to ask Larry Summers three big questions about the global economy in 2023 and beyond. 

What have we learned about how to create, manufacture, and distribute a new vaccine? Can countries cooperate to create a responsive and resilient supply chain if history repeats itself, and should the WTO have a role? Chad Bown talks to Tim Phillips.

Every CEO, investor, and NGO needs an ESG strategy, and they need it now.  But is that urgency making smart people ignore established insights from decades of economic research? Alex Edmans has identified 10 ways in which conventional ESG wisdom might be misguided, and he tells Tim Phillips what they are.

We’ve reached a moment at which large language models like ChatGPT have clearly become useful, but for what exactly? Anton Korinek has discovered at least 25 ways in which economics researchers can use them today. He explains to Tim Phillips about how they are already making our research more efficient.

Firms have discovered that global value chains are not as resilient as we assumed. They are reorganising these value chains and re-evaluating their approach to globalisation – but are the solutions they are considering worse than the problems themselves? Tim Phillips talks to Beata Javorcik, EBRD chief economist.

What motivates CEOs? Do they want to be fabulously rich or are they looking for a fair reward for their achievements? And, if fairness really does matter to them, how do you structure their contracts? Pierre Chaigneau talks to Tim Phillips about how to keep your CEO without rewarding failure.

We know that national stereotypes influence all sorts of personal decisions, but could they determine whether one country’s banks hold another country’s sovereign debt? Amazingly, Orkun Saka tells Tim Phillips, the answer might actually be yes.

Russia’s war on Ukraine hasn’t just destroyed buildings and lives, it has put thousands of people out of work and denied thousands more an education. After the war, how can Ukraine rebuild its labour market? Tito Boeri tells Tim Phillips about how other countries and Ukrainian refugees can help to build back better.

Did slaveholding accelerate the industrial revolution in Britain? This controversial theory was first argued by Eric Williams almost 80 years ago but has lacked strong supporting evidence – until now. Stephan Heblich and Joachim Voth talk to Tim Phillips.

Credit cards that offer cashback or rewards are increasingly popular. Are you doing better or worse as a result? And how big is the financial difference between all the winners and losers? Andrea Presbitero knows and the amount, he tells Tim Phillips, is bigger than you think.

Can we explain what happened to inflation in the US in 2022, and what will happen next? Larry Ball and Daniel Leigh tell Tim Phillips why it stayed high and when it may fall.

Germany’s NetzDG Law has given social media companies the responsibility for removing toxic content from their platforms. Can a law to mandate content moderation curb hate speech and, if it does, does that have an impact in the offline world? Carlo Schwarz talks to Tim Phillips.

In the industrial age many new empires quickly rose and eventually fell. Kerem Cosar and Roberto Bonfatti tell Tim Phillips how important shifting patterns of trade have been in this process. 

What is the net benefit of phasing out coal and replacing it with renewables? $85 trillion, according to a new calculation. Alissa Kleinnijenhuis and Patrick Bolton tell Tim Phillips how they estimated this extraordinary number, how the benefit can be realised – and whether the negotiations at COP27 will get us there.

How does a bilateral trade agreement affect the amount of competition in both countries? New data casts doubt on the conclusions that trade economists have drawn in the past, Meredith Crowley tells Tim Phillips.

Ricardo Reis tells Tim Phillips why many advanced economies ended up with inflation levels that we haven’t seen for a generation. Did policymakers make mistakes, or do we need to change the entire policy framework?

Mitigating and adapting to climate change is economically rational. But it is also expensive, it’s not clear how the cost should be financed, or which countries or actors assume the burden. The 25th Geneva Report from CEPR investigates these questions. Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Ugo Panizza tell Tim Phillips about the report’s conclusions.

Whether it’s a return of Covid-19 or another epidemic, we now know much more about the best policies to protect economies while limiting the spread of infection from place to place. Flavio Toxvaerd tells Tim Phillips about new research on what will work next time.

Heat stress from climate change affects the economy, so does it change the cost of issuing debt or the return on equities? Viral Acharya has investigated how this climate risk is priced, and he tells Tim Phillips how it raises the cost of borrowing most for the places and firms that can least afford it.

We know that millions of people get their news from social media, but does Twitter influence what traditional news outlets report as well? Julia Cagé tells Tim Phillips about a new study of 2 billion tweets.

When a man is violent to a woman at work, is the outcome different compared to when a man is the victim? A new study reaches some disturbing conclusions. Abi Adams-Prassl talks to Tim Phillips.

We need a financial system, but does that mean we must also have regular financial crises? Regulation and risk management attempt to eliminate them, but does the cost and effort simply deliver what Jon Danielsson, in his new book, calls The Illusion of Control? He tells Tim Phillips that systemic risk is higher now than it was in 2008.

If we are less equal, is that good or bad news for economic growth? Reto Foellmi reviewed the research, and he has some answers for Tim Phillips. 

The problem of fake firms that issue fake receipts so that clients can claim fraudulent tax deductions is widespread but hard to stop, and it’s costing governments everywhere billions in lost revenues. Dave Donaldson and Dina Pomeranz talk to Tim Phillips about how the tax authority in Ecuador recouped lost revenues.

As intelligent autonomous machines become better at doing all our jobs, will there be enough work and income to go around? If only some of us work, who will that be, and what happens to the rest of us? Anton Korinek talks to Tim Phillips.

During the Covid-19 pandemic governments had to take unpopular measures to restrict our freedoms, and we had to choose whether we did what we were told. Were governments in countries with free media more likely to act – and were their citizens more likely to comply? Tim Besley and Sacha Dray talk to Tim Phillips about their new research.

When pension giant ABP faced protests about its fossil fuel investment strategy, did it choose to exert pressure on oil companies or divest from them? Jeff Wurgler and Dirk Schoenmaker talk to Tim Phillips about how the finance sector can accelerate a green transition.

Opposition to a carbon tax was at the root of the gilets jaunes protests in France. Did the protestors think the tax wouldn’t work, or that it wasn’t fair, or that they would personally lose out? Adrien Fabre talks to Tim Phillips about the link between tax and trust in government.

When aid donors are distracted by domestic concerns, do aid recipients take advantage to suppress political opposition? Data from Africa suggest that they do, Dominic Rohner tells Tim Phillips. Photo: Alisdare Hickson.

Global real rates are stuck at a low level, and until recently policy rates everywhere were effectively zero. Can we use historical data to explain why this happened, and to predict whether we will be back at the ZLB when inflation falls? Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Ricardo Reis talk to Tim Phillips.

The Covid crisis inspired extraordinary innovation. Carsten Fink and Reinhilde Veugelers are two of the editors of a new ebook from CEPR called Resilience and Ingenuity that examines how countries, organisations and industries were able to innovate. Tim Phillips asks them what worked, what didn’t, and whether we can keep up the pace of new ideas. 

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: Across Europe and beyond, populist movements have recently flourished. What does history teach us about the economic impact of populism – and is our taste for populists a bug or a feature of democracy? Tim Phillips talks to Moritz Schularick and Massimo Morelli.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: In his resignation speech this week, Boris Johnson said that "we need to keep levelling up, to keep unleashing the potential of every part of the United Kingdom". But are Europe's policies to "level up" left-behind places working? Henry Overman tells Tim Phillips why regional disparities are so persistent.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: Researchers and policymakers need data, but in Europe they often cannot access the right data at the right time. Filippo di Mauro and Ugo Panizza invite Tim Phillips for coffee to explain how these problems hold back research and decision-making – and suggest what can be done to close the economic data gap.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: Supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 has fed inflation and hobbled stimulus policies. Sebnem Kalemli Özcan tells Tim Phillips about the only solution to this economic long Covid.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022:  Sanctions against Russia have sent the price of oil and gas rocketing – triggering more, not less, fossil fuel extraction, and some giant projects that have been called “carbon bombs”. Mar Réguant and Rick van der Ploeg tell Tim Phillips that these bombs will explode the climate commitments agreed in Paris in 2015.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: What are the consequences of an extended period of above-target inflation for the euro area? Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Giancarlo Corsetti discuss policy options with Tim Phillips.

The latest CEPR ebook investigates the impact of Brexit so far on the economies of the UK and EU. Tim Phillips talks to three of the authors: Jonathan Portes, Thomas Sampson and Sarah Hall.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: What are the long-term consequences of the conflict in Ukraine for the EU? Lucrezia Reichlin and Philippe Martin discuss the impact of the war on trade, energy security, fiscal policy, and green transition with Tim Phillips.

Recorded live at CEPR Paris Symposium 2022: Thomas Piketty’s short new book promises A brief history of equality. He tells Tim Phillips about why institutions are precarious, why policymakers should consider the consequences for inequality before they intervene – but also why we should be optimistic about the long-term trends in equality.

We know women are under-represented in economics. But if male economists are more comfortable expressing a strong opinion, does this increase the perceived imbalance? Sarah Smith tells Tim Phillips about new research into the difference between male and female voices in economics.

How hard will sanctions on Russia bite? Anna Pestova and Mikhail Mamonov tell Tim Phillips about the depth of the economic hardship that the Russian people will suffer in 2022.

Alex Edmans asked this question in his keynote at the Financial Management Association Annual Meeting and offered some provocative answers. He tells Tim Phillips about passion, luck, originality, and the value of teaching.

This week António Guterres, secretary-general of the UN, warned that the war in Ukraine would tip tens of millions into food insecurity. Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers tell Tim Phillips about who suffers and how much from food price inflation.

If you're going to drop lots of money from a helicopter, what will happen to the economy? When would it make a difference, and to who? Helicopter money is increasingly being taken seriously as policy. Ricardo Reis tells Tim Phillips whether helicopter money really can solve our economic problems.