UBS On-Air: Market Moves all Episodes with AI Transcript

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior

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Washington Weekly Podcast: Post-debate polling, China legislation, Government funding

We begin by updating on the second assassination attempt of former President Trump, and where that investigation stands. We also discuss where negotiations stand as it relates a government funding bill, bipartisan legislative initiatives aimed at China, along with a look at the polls a week out from the recent Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

13:1316/09/2024

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - The most important question

The big event this week is the anticipated commencement of Fed rate cuts. Joining us to discuss outcome expectations, potential market response, and why focusing on the size of the cuts is not the most important issue, is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

19:2616/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rate cuts are coming'

Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. A rate cut is clearly expected (and long overdue), as inflation pressures continue to fade in the US. However, a rate cut of more than 25bps seems unlikely—while the Fed is late in cutting rates, a larger move might be taken as a sign of panic. Higher frequency cuts rather than larger cuts seem most likely.

02:0616/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The US and China – different consumers'

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

02:1713/09/2024

UBS ElectionWatch 2024: After the debate - Reaction and implications

The team discusses takeaways from the first presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, CIO’s latest views on the state of the race, and investment implications. Featured speakers are Jason Chandler, Head of GWM Americas, Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, and John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy.

38:1012/09/2024

Macro Monthly Podcast with UBS Asset Management

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

14:2212/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Real world spending power and soft landings'

The European Central Bank is expected to ease rates a quarter point today, as it continues its policy of following inflation lower. Seen over a proper time frame this is not properly a stimulus, as it is more focused on stabilizing real rates. Lagarde’s press conference will hopefully signal a steady pace of rate cuts to come.

02:2512/09/2024

Top of the Morning: Energy Transition(s)

Our conversation revisits the progress of energy transitions across the globe, as growing global energy demand and regional geopolitics are making transitions more complex. We also spend time highlighting the technological innovations at work, along with review how to invest in these energy transitions. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

18:0911/09/2024

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 12)

This week on the Viewpoints podcast, Burkhard returns following a late-summer hiatus to bring us up to speed on how the global market and macro landscapes have evolved over the past month, and what to look out for in the months ahead. We also spend time discussing how investors should factor politics into investment decision making, along with take reading on the health of economies across the globe.

11:2311/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Politics, and prices'

The market consequences of the US presidential debate rested on whether it changed probabilities around the election, and whether more substantial policy insights were offered. On the former, betting markets and the media suggest US Vice President Harris “won”—although debate victory does not always translate into electoral victory. On the latter, this was a debate of social media memes more than in-depth policy analysis.

02:3611/09/2024

CIO House View Monthly Livestream (Sep)

Hear insights from David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities, CIO Americas, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and Municipal Securities, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

36:3110/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Shouting matches'

The only scheduled US presidential debate is after US markets have closed today. This is near enough to the election for investors to care. Investors’ focus is whether the debate influences election probabilities, and if the candidates offer new policy insights.

02:2510/09/2024

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Back to school

The Snapshot is back in session with a busy stretch of weeks ahead - Jason reflects on the current state of the US economy and recent market performance, along with previews upcoming inflation data, and next week’s FOMC meeting. We also touch on the prospects for a recession in the US, along with review CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

17:3109/09/2024

Top of the Morning: August Jobs Report, and the week ahead

The latest employment report is in - Brian stops by to provide thoughts around the health of the US labor market, and what this latest data means for the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

11:1006/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The employment roulette wheel'

Just one month ago, markets were panicked by the release of an unreliable labor market signal, distorted by seasonal peculiarities. Now, once again, it is time for the US employment report. The unreliability adds unpredictability to the numbers, but the expectation is for a lower unemployment rate as temporarily unemployed auto-sector workers return to work.

05:1106/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Constraining capital'

The Washington Post reports that US President Biden will prevent Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security grounds. There will probably be a legal challenge to this, as national security might be hard to justify. Economic nationalism, however, is not just about trade in goods—it also often covers capital flows. Interestingly, economic nationalism goes both ways on capital flows: “how dare foreigners buy our assets?” for inflows; and “why are you not investing at home?” for outflows.

02:1705/09/2024

Washington Weekly Podcast: Legislative agenda, Decision 2024 update

As Congress returns from summer recess, and the race for the White House heats up, Shane drops by to outline legislative priorities over the next few weeks, along with updates as to where polling for the White House and key Congressional races currently stands. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

12:3504/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Don’t blame the ISM'

Equity markets had one of their funny turns yesterday. Some commentators, searching for scapegoats, want to blame the US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll. This seems unfair, as the ISM sentiment poll does not know what it is doing. Despite sentiment signaling five months of contraction, US manufacturing output is above where it was at the start of the year.

02:2104/09/2024

Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Patiently awaiting the US elections

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Alejo stops by the studio to outline the implications of different outcome scenarios to emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

14:1703/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More economic nationalism'

Following Canada’s decision to dramatically tax Canadian consumers of electric vehicles made in China, China has launched anti-dumping investigations into Canadian exports. “Dumping” is the deliberate sale of exports at below market price. It is not a common occurrence, but it is a convenient way of pursuing economic nationalism (per US and EU accusations of dumping against China).

02:0503/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The ongoing rise of prejudice politics'

In Germany, the far-right AfD won the largest share of the vote in Thuringia’s state elections. That and high support levels for the AfD and the far-left BSW in eastern Germany remind investors that prejudice politics is widespread and persistent. Industrial revolutions create insecurity about jobs, income, and social status. The causes are complex, but people crave simplicity. Blaming a scapegoat (scapegoat economics) offers simplicity, and encourages prejudice politics.

02:1502/09/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation data'

Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).

02:3930/08/2024

CIO Global Livestream - After the correction

In this global CIO livestream, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and his colleagues from around the world will delve into the recent market volatility and subsequent corrections. They discuss the implications of these changes and share their investment outlook for the months ahead.

31:4829/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The (dis) inflation cycle starts again'

The cycle of European consumer price inflation data is about to start again (in reality, this is pretty much a perpetual cycle). The Spanish and German preliminary August numbers are due today. Both are expected to show a fairly sizable decline. That means, of course, that real interest rates are rising. The ECB should continue to chase inflation down, not to offer policy stimulus but to maintain policy stability.

01:4829/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Micro and macro'

There is little macroeconomic data today. Asian markets have been moved by corporate news, with micro evidence of additional weakness from China’s consumers. At a time of structural change, the assumptions behind macroeconomic data can become further and further removed from reality. Corporate data should be more precise, but listed companies are relatively unimportant in most economies.

01:4928/08/2024

ElectionWatch: ‘After the convention’ - DNC edition

We weigh in on the state of the race and investment implications following the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Featured are Tom McLoughlin, Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

33:3327/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The disappearance of dumping'

The rise of economic nationalism has encouraged a rise in accusations of export “dumping” (selling at a loss in foreign markets)—and China has been specifically accused of this. China’s official industrial profit growth data, if accurate, argues against general export dumping. Profits growth accelerated in July, and with domestic demand lackluster some of this must be due to exports. Accelerating profit growth is not compatible with dumping.

02:2427/08/2024

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Jackson Hole & UBS House View

As we begin a new trading week, investors do so with further clarity around the course for monetary policy, namely the prospects for rate cuts in the months ahead. Jason will spend some time reflecting on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, along with outline the updated allocation preferences per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

17:4726/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Central bankers speaking, everywhere'

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke to the Japanese Diet, and was inclined to be somewhat hawkish. There was an acknowledgement of the instability of financial markets, which is hardly surprising in the wake of recent volatility—including suggestions that BoJ action may have contributed to it. The yen strengthened modestly in the aftermath.

02:0323/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy works with a lag'

The Federal Reserve minutes make it clear that rate cuts are coming (some wanted to cut in July). The Fed is late, and is now going to have to scramble after the decline in inflation, in an undignified manner. Policy operates with a lag, so the economic benefit of these cuts will take some time to come through (policy lags are why “data dependency” is so dangerous). The Jackson Hole summer camp for central bankers gets underway, and between marshmallow roasting and campfire songs there is a chance for some interest economic papers.

02:0822/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Getting it wrong'

The US will be revising last year’s non-farm payrolls data. Markets have a heightened interest in the labor market, and these revisions are likely to be negative. However, this does not change anything about the economy. Making payrolls marginally less inaccurate is about spin, not substance. Consumers have been spending this year based on the labor market they experience, not the labour market that was reported.

02:1421/08/2024

Around the Horn: Monthly Fixed Income Roundtable with UBS Asset Management

Tune in monthly to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. We hear candidly from them on their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

21:1520/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political theater, economic muttering'

US politicians are politicking. At the margin, Vice President Harris’s endorsement of the proposed increase in US corporate tax rates might seem to be market relevant. However, listed companies are not always that sensitive to headline corporate tax rates. Otherwise, this is still mainly political theater (obviously, were Taylor Swift to do an impromptu concert in Chicago, the theater would become serious).

01:4620/08/2024

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Mo’ Momentum Markets

Jason explains why financial markets have become more prone to rollercoaster swings that result in positive momentum and sharp reversals. We also preview this week’s Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and what markets will be looking for in Fed Chair Powell’s speech, along with review CIO’s current guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

17:0019/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More politics. More policy.'

The data calendar today is so quiet even ECB President Lagarde does not appear to be speaking. The lack of economic data to guide investors might be troubling—but recent market swings were not based on rational economic analysis.

02:0519/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politicization of inflation'

The US middle-income consumer is doing just fine, with yesterday’s retail sales data showing little fear of unemployment and a willingness to indulge in the national pastime of spending money. Today’s Michigan consumer sentiment data will tell us about the extraordinary degree of US political partisanship, not about what consumers are feeling.

02:0816/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'From inflation to labor markets'

US July consumer price inflation data continued recent trends. Most sectors of the US economy have deflation somewhere (furniture prices seem to be plunging in California. Clothing prices are falling in New York). Fictional prices for housing are propping up the inflation data—which means middle income homeowners have more spending power than consumer price numbers imply.

02:3515/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation and what it means'

The publication of US consumer price inflation forces economists to become used car salespeople and real estate fantasists. Part of the disinflationary trends come from used cars (which most US households will not buy this year) and the fictional owners’ equivalent rent (which no one pays). Disinflation in these categories does not improve the spending power of most consumers.

02:2714/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Real real rates'

US July producer price data are due. Producer prices better represent corporate pricing power than consumer prices. (Consumer prices are a combination of the pricing power of retailers, and the power of imagination in devising owners’ equivalent rent.) This means the real fed funds rate is around 3% for companies—an unnecessarily restrictive rate.

02:0013/08/2024

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot: The calm - that refreshes?

Jason explains last week’s market evolution, and what this week might deliver for the markets as we anticipate key economic readings on consumer spending trends and the inflationary environment. Jason also outlines CIO’s medium-term market outlook, and views when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

14:4012/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation anticipation'

At the risk of tempting fate, financial markets seem to have got the past week’s hysteria out of their systems and are prepared to go back to looking to economists for guidance. Unfortunately, there is relatively little economic news today—although inflation data is likely to be significant this week.

01:5712/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Missing demand'

China’s July consumer price inflation rose a little more than expected, but this was not a signal of better demand. Excluding food prices inflation moderated, suggesting broader demand remains anemic. Food price inflation was supported by supply constraints for fresh vegetables and pork, and this sort of inflation signals potential damage to consumer spending rather than being a response to better demand.

02:3109/08/2024

Top of the Morning: Navigating market volatility in Asia

Following a period of volatility across Asian equity markets, notably Japan, and within the technology sector, Xingchen stops by the studio to explain the drivers, share an outlook, along with guidance when it comes to positioning within the region. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

10:3908/08/2024

How should I be positioned? with Jeffrey Sherman (DoubleLine) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

In the wake of the recent episode of global market volatility, Jeffrey rejoins Jason on the podcast to exchange views on the volatility drivers, an outlook for the markets, the health of the US economy, and the direction of monetary policy. Plus, we spend time sharing thoughts when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager with DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

36:3008/08/2024

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US employment data you can count'

There is an eerie calm over the economic calendar. Weekly US initial jobless claims data may get more attention than normal. This is not survey evidence (people have to do something to make a claim), but it is also not comprehensive as unemployed new entrants to the workforce are not captured. The state breakdown may offer some helpful insights into the effects of Hurricane Beryl on Texas (and through that, national employment data).

02:0208/08/2024

CIO First Take: September FOMC meeting

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The damage of data dependency'

Top of the Morning: Should you harvest capital gains at today’s rate?

Top of the Morning: Election 2024 - Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Hedonism day'