Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Bill Scapell, Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities, Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the case for seeking opportunity outside of the US, this despite resilient economic conditions and performance in risk assets YTD. We identify what to watch out for during the second-half of 2023, including the factors that could disrupt economic and market conditions. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The data calendar is relatively uninspiring. There is the debt ceiling farce in the US, but this is almost never worth commenting on. The Federal Reserve did reveal itself to be significantly divided over the direction of policy in its minutes. Fed Governor Waller was also playing verbal hopscotch and talking about skips, rather than pauses. It is times like these that strong leadership and a clearly articulated economic philosophy really add value. Never mind.

Our conversation identifies some strategies to help answer that very question. We also cover what’s top of mind for retirees and ‘soon-to-be’ retirees, and how the macroeconomic environment is altering spending, investing, and saving patterns. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Matt Sommer, Head of Specialist Consulting Group, Janus Henderson Investors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK April consumer price inflation fell (as expected) but by a little less than expected. Further up the supply chain, producer prices fell (as expected) but by more than expected. Food price inflation barely moved, which is likely to keep the focus on profit-led inflation pressures. Recent price discounts were too late to affect this data release.

Our conversation brings you up to speed on where negotiations currently stand, including a look at potential areas of compromise. We also outline CIO’s base case scenario and speak to the investment implications. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s central bank speak confirmed whatever you thought about central bank policy before the cacophony of comment. The ECB speakers behaved like they were on autopilot because they are (unfortunately) automatically raising rates. The Federal Reserve hawks were hawkish, the doves were dovish, and those in the middle were even handed.

Our conversation walks you through the June UBS House View Investment Strategy Guide, along with outlines why the odds of the secular bull case scenario playing out are on the rise (and the investment implications to be mindful of). Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

No fewer than 11 global central bankers are jostling for attention from the world’s media today. The message from all this central bank babble is likely to be confusion. We are close to monetary policy turning points, in the middle of structural upheaval, with data which is less reliable. In such circumstances, there is a risk that gut instinct and pre-conceived ideas play as much of a role as analysis when it comes to policy comments.

The drone of central bank speak dominates the calendar again. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but markets are unlikely to care. Federal Reserve President Williams is another matter—Williams represents a voice of intellectual economic leadership at the Fed.

Our conversation covers the latest on where debt-ceiling negotiations stand and what to expect in the coming days and weeks. We also preview the G-7 meeting as part of President Biden’s visit to Asia, and provide some highlights from OpenAI CEO’s testimony to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The calendar is crowded with a pontification of central banks. Central bank speak these days tends to confirm investors’ pre-existing prejudices. The world is becoming increasingly complex and data is increasingly unreliable. Certainty, even economists’ certainty, has necessarily declined. However Twitter wants everything expressed as an absolute in a soundbite. This allows investors to select the quotes that fit their view of the world.

Our conversation spotlights opportunities across the emerging markets, particularly for those with a longer-term horizon. We update on some regulatory developments as it relates to automobile emissions across the EU and US. We also touch on what’s on the minds of shareholders with highlights from the 2023 proxy season and discuss ways to drive change through investing. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Geeta Aiyer, Founder and President of Boston Common Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japanese first quarter growth was stronger. Better consumer durable goods demand was part of this, where Japan is an outlier amongst developed economies. Having been the last major economy to reopen from the pandemic, the post-pandemic consumer patterns were delayed in Japan. Exports of goods were not so robust, suggesting international consumers continue to pivot from goods towards services.

As debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington DC continue, we break down the latest developments and highlight the implications to the municipal bond market. We also highlight some muni-related portfolio themes to consider. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US retail sales give a glimpse into the hedonism of the US household. This is April data—too soon for consumers to feel any consequences from banking system volatility. Any credit tightening hurts consumers when they try to increase their credit card limits, not when they are spending the limits they already have. Industrial production is also due, but globally the US matters more as a consumer than a producer.

As we begin another week with markets trading in a tight range (which we explain why), we take inventory of the risk factors in focus and how they rank (such as the debt-ceiling and the prospects for a recession). We also break down how you should consider positioning your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class, including within private markets. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates, CMBS, and the macro environment. Featured are Armen Panossian, Head of Performing Credit with Oaktree Capital Management, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a fair amount of central bank noise on the calendar today. Federal Reserve President Bostic seems to be grabbing for any available media microphone, as part of a financial market conference. The Fed speakers today are unlikely to offer much new insight to investors. The Bank of England’s chief economist is also speaking, and that may be of more interest in the wake of recently revised economic forecasts.

A monthly checkup with top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, sharing their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Our conversation breaks downs where we stand today on negotiations surrounding the US debt-ceiling, including what’s at stake, what’s being debated and the implications of an extension. We also provide an update on the US southern boarder in the wake of Title 42 coming to an end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK profit-led inflation is coming under political scrutiny—Parliament is to investigate the influence of food producers and supermarkets on food price inflation. Profit-led inflation tends to occur at the end of supply chains, when companies with strong brands get consumers to accept price increases by disguising margin expansion with a convincing story. Consumer outrage (and associated political focus) is one way to combat this.

US consumer price inflation data was generally as expected. This is the point. Inflation is more predictable. Predictability hints that profit-led inflation may be starting to turn as the unusual nature of profit-led inflation is what is hard to predict.

Learn about the latest debt ceiling conversations being had in Washington D.C., along with a timely update on the latest inflation data. Featured speakers are John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy, Brian Rose, Senior Economist, CIO Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas.

Our conversation touches on the implications of the banking crisis to asset class performance and flows, plus a look at some portfolio themes to consider, an updated new issuance forecast for 2023 and more. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US April consumer price inflation is expected to show relative stability in the year-over-year rates. Today’s data could be seen as good or bad by markets, depending on why consumer prices worry investors.

China reported strong export values and falling import values in April. Beijing certainly focused on getting stronger exports reported at the end of the first quarter (and first quarter GDP growth was boosted by reported export numbers). While it is difficult to marry up one country’s export data with another country’s import data, it is quite difficult to see where the reported exports are going. Slowing demand for goods does suggest that global trade volumes are likely to decline as a share of the world economy.

In the wake of the Fed’s policy decision, the April employment report and the bulk of 1Q23 corporate earnings reporting, we examine what this all means for the investment outlook from here and how to position your portfolio accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Learn about the latest developments and market implications from Brad Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, and Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The US Senior Loan Officer survey summarizes the attitude of US banks to lending. While this is just survey evidence, it is conducted by the Federal Reserve as the regulator of banks. As such the responses are more likely to be taken seriously and filled in objectively, than is the case with other surveys. This data matters because lending standards were already tightening, and the recent banking turmoil raises the risk that this tightening accelerates.

We recap the week that was, including reflections on the latest employment data and the Fed’s policy decision. We also analyze the health of the US labor market, and the potential course for monetary policy from here, including how the Fed is currently thinking about inflation. We close by previewing some points of interest in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our featured CIO analysts, Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income CIO Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities CIO Americas, will break down our latest views on the economy and markets. Featured topics will include the Fed rate announcement, debt ceiling, and more.

There is something faintly absurd about trying to sum up something like a complex labor market in a single word. “Tight” or “loose” does not really do justice to the US labor market, which simultaneously has very low unemployment and very low real wage growth. This has been an exceptional period with very high labor market churn.

Dr. Jason Hsu is the Founder, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Rayliant, and recently returned from a trip to mainland China. Jason shares his takeaways, experiences and speaks to considerations when it comes to investing in China, including how to approach and the risks to be mindful of. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25 percentage points (pps). Fed Chair Powell signalled the end of the “hike, hike, hike” policy. Powell suggested wages were not the primary driver of inflation. Economics considers returns to land, labor, and capital—which for inflation means commodity inflation, wage inflation, and profit growth. Commodities are a disinflation force, while Powell does not think inflation is due to wages. What does that leave?

Our conversation outlines how and why to incorporate geographical diversification into an investment portfolio, including a look at the investment case for emerging market equities and bonds. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates a final time. Arguably this has been the most poorly managed tightening cycle since Fed Chair Burns in the 1970s. What went wrong?

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates, CMBS, and the macro environment. Featured are Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We take a trip around the globe and dive into macro and geopolitical developments across developed and emerging markets, including a macro outlook for the US, global trade relations with China, the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war across Europe, political shifts across Latin America and more. Featured is Chi Amaechi, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Much of the world enjoyed the May day holiday weekend, relaxing (or, if French, protesting). The US had a banking problem and another act in the debt ceiling farce. First Republic Bank was taken over. The ongoing concern is that banking problems cause banks to engage in the equivalent of precautionary savings—increasing liquidity “just in case.” There are reasons to hope this effect will be limited.

As we begin a new month and await a key policy decision by the Fed this week, we review CIO’s expectations and explore the implications of a pause in rate hiking to financial markets. We also preview what will be a busy week for data releases (including Q1 earnings) and discuss how investors should think about positioning their portfolios for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation examines the macroeconomic environment in the wake of the banking crisis and how conditions might evolve over the course of 2023, including the path forward for monetary policy. We also discuss the investment implications of recent developments and how to consider positioning your portfolio. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office and Joe Zidle, Chief Investment Strategist for the Private Wealth Solutions Group, Blackstone. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US March income and consumption data is due. Excitement is reduced by yesterday’s first quarter GDP data, which reminded investors (again) never to short the hedonism of the US consumer. Today’s data should show slower consumer activity, and falling real spending will reflect the consequences of two years of falling real incomes.

Hear insights from Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, and Davide Serra, Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments.

The US will deliver an ill-educated guess at how fast the US economy grew in the first quarter, with the first estimate of GDP. This number will be revised for years to come, and may well end up having little resemblance to today’s release. None of this will stop the breathless sensationalism of media reporting, nor politicians spinning the data right round (like a record).

Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues around the world discuss why we prefer bonds to equities, and today’s investment outlook.

Hear perspective on recent performance drivers, investor sentiment, a performance outlook and positioning. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Mike Rabuffo, Principal and Municipal Bond Client Portfolio Manager with GW&K Investment Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The profit-led inflation story has been fuelled by corporate results showing profit-led inflation. As these stories move from the financial press to social media, companies must weigh whether short-term margin expansion compensates for the risk of customer resentment at paying higher prices.