The third halving event in Bitcoin’s history is approaching. A halving in Bitcoin is when the number of new bitcoin created roughly every ten minutes is cut in half. This change in the Bitcoin issuance rate is scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks (around every four years).After hitting a 2020 high of over $10K in mid-February, the bitcoin price was lower than $5K a month later. Since then its been an uphill climb, the price of bitcoin has recovered somewhat to around $7.8K. Since ‘Black Thursday’ (March 12), bitcoin prices have gained 103% since then rising from $3.8K to $7.8K per bitcoin. MinersHash Rate increasing 12 Days out…Miners, miners, miners…we have to remember the halving cleanses the removal of inefficient miners. We have to understand why this is important and related to bitcoin price. First the bitcoin rewards get allocated to the very efficient miners — the people that have deployed correctly relative to low [cost] electricity. Ultimately we want bitcoin in the hands of these types of miners because they do not have to sell as much bitcoin. Most if not all miners will operate at a loss after the halving, which creates even more sell pressure because everything they are mining is going to get sold. The very efficient miners have better margins, they don’t have to sell as much bitcoin, because they have prepared for this adjustment. This could take 2-4 months for inefficient miners to get removed from the network. The question to ask is. “Have the miners priced in the halving?” This is the most important question when predicating price going into the halving. Which is also related to the downward bitcoin price movement?Currency WarsMoney Printer go burrrr…Adjusting the money supply in line with demand is one of the primary functions of FED and central banks. The most important rule of the game is to avoid a deflationary environment, most people expect tomorrow’s dollar to be very stable. We know Fiat currencies tend to be inflationary by their nature. The importance of dynamic money supply was learned the hard way in 1929 when the FED failed to tackle a deflationary dollar. As the dollar deflated, the purchasing power of each dollar increased. People chose to save rather than spend. The velocity of money dropped, the economy contracted and the worst recession of the century followed.It is safe to acknowledge that fiat currencies are great for day-to-day transactions for now. They are fine for short term savings for now. They are convenient for rainy-day funds…not anymore they have become terrible as savings instruments.Remember Bitcoin is not a fiat currency and it is certainly not responsible for keeping liquidity within an economy. Bitcoin is a disinflationary asset with a fixed and transparent supply schedule. Don’t save in fiat. Save in Bitcoin.Bullish Factors going into the halving The drop…to 6 bitcoin is far more vital this halving than most people understand.Consensus 2020, Ethereal 2020, Virtual Blockchain Week.More Stimulus Checks? Possibly and if so more will enter Bitcoin.Unforeseen Major FinTech Announcements.Buy-side pressure overtakes Sell-side pressure.Bearish Factors going into the halvingCovid-19, Lock-down.Massive layoffs, Unemployment, No excess fiat.Signs of a Great Depression in play?The unexpectedness of 2020? We do not know what is around the corner economically especially this year.BitcoinWe need to discuss PlanB because he is releasing a variation on the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. This new model, known as the “S2FX”, model. PlanB’s S2FX model combines the valuation of Bitcoin with assets such as gold and silver.PlanB has come to the conclusion that bitcoin as an asset is going through a series of “phase transitions”. These BTC narratives seem very continuous in the S2FX chart. However, if we combine the narratives with financial milestones (S2FX and price data), they look very much like phases with more abrupt transitions:“Proof of concept” -> after Bitcoin white paper“Payments” -> after USD parity (1BTC = $1)“E-Gold” -> after 1st halving, almost gold parity (1BTC = 1 ounce of gold)“Financial asset” -> after 2nd halving ($1Billion transactions per day milestone, legal clarity in Japan and Australia, futures markets at CME and Bakkt)This following S2FX chart shows that each new phase for Bitcoin brings a substantial uptick in bitcoin valuation with it. With a traditional S2F, PlanB previously said bitcoin was on course for a $100K valuation.But now according to PlanB, the S2FX model forecasts that the average bitcoin price in 2020 to 2024 will be $288,000. This is in stark contrast to the current bitcoin price of $7.7K but is coming from one of the most important macro investors in this space.2012 HalvingThe 2012 block halving was the first halving and happened on November 28th, 2012.New BTC Per Block Before: 50 BTC per blockNew BTC Per Block After: 25 BTC per blockPrice on Halving Day: $12.35Price 150 Days Later: $127.002016 HalvingThe second halving occurred on July 9th, 2016.New BTC Per Block Before: 25 BTC per blockNew BTC Per Block After: 12.5 BTC per blockPrice on Halving Day: $650.63Price 150 Days Later: $758.81The “Willy Woo” Litecoin ScenarioLTC underwent its own halving event on the 5th of August 2019. As a result, the price of Litecoin peaked around 22nd June 2019, at a value of $146. Immediately after that, Litecoin underwent a 6-month correction that saw the value of LTC drop to $35 before a relief rally early this year to a value of $84 around mid-February.Bitcoin this month, has a death cross on the daily chart. Further using the Litecoin model before the LTC halving, we can conclude that BTC experienced its own local top before halving around $10.5K in mid-February 2020.If we follow the Litecoin pattern from 2019, bitcoin might experience a 6-month bearish environment until mid-August. Further using the LTC top of $146 and bottom of $35 in December 2019 to create a bearish predictive ratio (146/35), estimate that bitcoin should find a bottom around the $2.5K area using the top of $10.5K. My Perspective on the 3rd Halving…50% - Likely Scenario 1Pump into the halving from now into May 12-16 we get back to $12K - $13K bitcoin. We then dump and fall back down to the $7.8K - $9.2K range as miners adjust to price post halving. Expect a huge surge in demand for bitcoin & ethereum over the next few weeks as Bitcoin’s inflation slows down with the block halving going down to 6. This plays a far bigger impact this time around then previous halvings. We are in one of the most important halvings for Bitcoin.Governments continue to inflate currencies to mitigate the economic impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic. As a greater amount of fiat money chases a limited amount of goods and services, a significant increase in inflation is inevitable, which will cause prudent investors to turn to bitcoin as a safe haven to preserve their purchasing power.This idea that bitcoin will pump and alts won't keep up for a while and then BOOM alts have their run as bitcoin starts a larger consolidation.On both prior halving occasions, bitcoin surged to a new all-time high within 12 months..keep that in mind. From a fundamental standpoint, it will take time to see the actual ‘real’ effects in the bitcoin & crypto markets.Post 2020 Halving…Libra LaunchBakkt Phase 2 Roll-outEthereum 2.0 LaunchCBDC’s release to the publicChina Digital Yuan Release

The People’s Bank of China is poised to become the first major central bank to issue a digital version of its currency, the yuan, seeking to keep up with -- and control of -- a rapidly digitizing economy. PBoC’s official website, the word “Bitcoin” is not mentioned even once, although China is one of the top players in the crypto industry. The principles and technologies on the basis of which it is planned to create a state digital currency are also not explained. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, though, dealing in the digital yuan won’t have any presumption of total anonymity, and its value will be as stable as the physical yuan.The What…The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has spoken about its commitment towards creating a digital version of the yuan.According to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) deputy director Mu Changchun, head of the institution’s digital currency research institute, it will provide no scope for speculating on its value and it will not have the backing of a basket of currencies.Mu recently  said that China’s new national digital currency would operate on a two-tier system, with the PBoC on top, and commercial banks allowed on the second tier of the centralized system.Mu made it clear that China is not launching a war on cash by introducing its own digital currency. Rather, Beijing intends for the new currency to complement the paper yuan.The How…In 2013 China invoked a prohibition of financial institutions from handling bitcoin transactions.In 2014 China creates a special group for cryptocurrency research.In 2015 China begins active studying of cryptocurrency-related regulatory experience from other countries.In 2016 China first official announcement that it will create a national cryptocurrency.In 2017 China creates a research institute setup to further facilitate the development of its national cryptocurrency. They also ban local cryptocurrency exchanges.In 2019 PBoC moves forward with the creation of its national cryptocurrency on the heels of Libra, currency wars, trading disagreements with U.S. sanctions.In 2020 - March The Bank of China was alleged to have completed the development of the currency’s basic functions and to have already moved on to drafting laws for its implementation. Screenshots of a purported pilot version of a wallet app for China’s forthcoming digital yuan are circulating on social media. According to Ling Zhang, the app is available for download in four cities selected for the initial trial — Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiongan. She highlights the inclusion of Xiongan, a new metropolis located on the outskirts of Beijing, which has been the site of a so-dubbed “smart city brain project.” The Xiongan New Area will have enhanced intelligent infrastructure that spans satellite information services, sensor recognition, a 5G network, super-computing and big data facilities. The city has already attracted the country's tech giants Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com and Baidu, with President Xi Jinping visiting on more than one occasion. PBoC digital currency is likely to be tested in these four regions that these locations were likely chosen because they are considered “tier 1 or 2” cities and “are home to tech talent,” especially Shenzhen, deemed the Silicon Valley of China.BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.In 2020 - April China appears to have been accelerating the development of the digital yuan, according to the BIS Bulletin (shown above) notwithstanding the COVID-19 crisis. China is reportedly working with private industry to accelerate the roll-out of its central bank-backed digital currency. According to several international reports several Chinese tech giants, including Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei, as well as China Merchants Bank, have been working with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to issue an official digital yuan.Insiders tell the Global Times that Alipay, the financial arm of Chinese e-commerce and cloud computing giant Alibaba, has filed five patents from January through March that are linked to the development of China’s digital yuan. Most transactions in China are already conducted digitally using WeChat pay or Alipay. Insiders say that the central bank is now drafting legislation for the roll-out following several patents covering a spate of technological challenges, including issuance, anonymous trading support, anti-money laundering, transaction history and digital wallets that will be used to store the currency.The PBoC has not yet issued an exact launch date for its digital yuan.In 2020 - May According to the official letter obtained by the reporter of Science and Technology Board Daily, Suzhou Xiangcheng District will be an important pilot area for the Digital Yuan. They are cooperating with the central bank and the four state-owned banks of China Construction Industry and Agriculture to promote the pilot work of its digital currency. The official letter requires that the enterprises and institutions and various management committees in each district of Xiangcheng District sign a digital currency distribution agreement with the wage distribution bank, install a digital wallet for all staff (except retirees), and include transportation subsidies in the monthly salary. The signing of this issuance agreement, and the installation of digital wallets will need to be complete by the end of May, and the completion of the issuance will occur in June. 50% will be issued through Digital Yuan. The dates for the tests or the actual launch have not been confirmed by the PBoC yet but there are chances it might occur during the Winter Olympics of 2022. China has reiterated that the blockchain tests will not have any impact on mainstream markets either.The Why…In July of 2019, Wang Xin, director of the PBoC Research Bureau, said that, with the development of the Libra cryptocurrency project, the People’s Bank of China should accelerate the growth of its own digital currency, which it has been working on over the past few years. “If [Libra] is widely used for payments — cross-border payments in particular — would it be able to function like money and accordingly have a large influence on monetary policy, financial stability, and the international monetary system?”In particular, China is concerned about which currencies Libra will be tied to and what role the U.S. dollar will play in this project. Wang said:“If the digital currency is closely associated with the US dollar, it could create a scenario under which sovereign currencies would coexist with US dollar-centric digital currencies. But there would be in essence one boss, that is the US dollar and the United States. If so, it would bring a series of economic, financial and even international political consequences.”According to Chinese authorities they need to strengthen the national currency and consider the Hong Kong model to create a digital renminbi, which involves issuing money through commercial enterprises under the supervision of the central bank. As the virus has spread and citizens have been placed under lock down, paper notes have followed. Banknotes have been disinfected with ultraviolet light and high-temperature ovens in China, and placed in a 14 day quarantine period in places as far afield as Hungary and the U.S. If this trend continues and prompts widespread distaste for physical cash, the credit card industry is likely to benefit, along with payme...

What a Digital Dollar looks like…We are on the cusp of a new monetary era. Central bankers around the world are increasingly worried that privately controlled digital currencies will relegate them to the sidelines of monetary affairs. To avoid this fate, central banks have been studying, and in some cases actively pursuing, issuing digital currencies of their own: so-called central bank digital currency (CBDC). Today’s tech giants have the scale and consumer reach, not to mention the incentive, to create their own digital moneys that threaten to compete with or even displace the public moneys that central banks issue and manage. The Peoples Bank of China is reportedly poised to launch its CBDC as soon as this year. If it succeeds, other major central banks are sure to follow. The stakes are especially high for the United States because a successful digital currency—whether controlled by a private company or by China—could imperil the U.S. dollar’s status as the dominant global currency, a source of “exorbitant privilege” for Americans.Congress should authorize the Federal Reserve to implement a broadly accessible, U.S. dollar-based CBDC by giving the general public—individuals, businesses, and institutions—the option to hold accounts at the central bank, which we call FedAccounts. FedAccounts would offer all the functionality of ordinary bank accounts with the exception of overdraft coverage. They would also have all the special features that banks currently enjoy on their central bank accounts, as well as some additional, complementary features. The FedAccount program would put government-issued digital or “account” money on par with government-issued physical currency, transforming digital dollars into a resource that anyone can use. The technology behind the digital dollar would be HyperLedger DLT, being designed to be fungible, meaning regardless of what central bank might end up minting its currency using the technology, every token will have the same value as the underlying asset, regardless of whether the token had been previously used for some nefarious purpose and will comply with the ERC-1155 token standard.When it comes to money and payments, integration and interoperability are demonstrably better than fragmentation and balkanization. On top of that, distributed ledger technology, however ingenious its conception, remains extremely slow and inefficient compared to centralized ledger systems. For central banks, these cryptocurrency design features are a needless distraction. The FedAccount system would be seamlessly interoperable with the existing system of money and payments and would rely on low-cost, reliable systems and technologies that the Federal Reserve has used successfully for decades. It would not charge interchange fees on debit card transactions, FedAccounts would reduce or eliminate an implicit tax on retailers and consumers. The Digital Dollar effects on BitcoinImportant to keep in mind. Bitcoin has the lead and will continue to have the lead in the digital currency space. The creation of the Digital Dollar at its core and infrastructure level isn’t really a challenge for Bitcoin. Bitcoin wins hands down.China’s digital yuan has been in the works since 2014. The launch date, however, still remains unknown but is expected later this year. Industry insiders told The Global Times that China should accelerate the launch of its digital currency amid the coronavirus pandemic and economic slowdown. This will be Bitcoin first major test.People’s Bank of China Digital Yuan, United States of America Digital Dollar, Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Currency Wars are upon us.What happens to cash when the digital dollar is created, does it become worthless. Will we continue on using the same fiat money system that hyper inflates the digital dollar as well. Currency devaluation, or debasement, has always been synonymous with inflation, where the amount of money in circulation relative to economic activity increases. When the Federal Reserve System started creating hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air, they called it ‘quantitative easing’ of the money supply. When that didn’t work, they created more money and called it ‘QE2’, instead of saying: ‘We are going to print more dollars — and hope it works this time.’” Now they are calling this QE infinity. Does the Fed introduce a new currency and if so do we lose all value in our current USD.Worse case scenario a new FedCoin currency is created including the wiping out of previous USD debt. Digital FedCoin becomes the world reserve currency backed by gold and/or a basket of other currencies, still highly centralized and highly controlled. However to make social and economic choices regarding this, the FED implements governance in a two tier token system that is well coordinated with other central banks holding the vast majority of wealth very similar to MakerDAO…while the smaller stable FedCoin token is distributed to everyone else all while keeping the programmable money aspect in tact. This pulls the rug under bitcoin. They then take additional steps to make it extremely difficult to receive and/or send and/or store legally if not held in a digital online/offline wallet not tied to a digital identity or an exchange. This creates a secondary market in the Bitcoin, Crypto industry and an onslaught of privacy coins become the standard and/or Bitcoin forks implementing a privacy component to its protocol. Best case scenario old cash currency is still used, currency wars continue, hyper inflation increases and most people make the move to bitcoin and becomes the world reserve currency.Citation: Ricks, Morgan and Crawford, John and Menand, Lev, Digital Dollars (February 1, 2020). Vanderbilt Law Research Paper 18-33; UC Hastings Research Paper No. 287; George Washington Law Review, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3192162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3192162

The Rundown - Digital DollarPeople’s Bank of China Digital Yuan USD Held World WideHow many Satoshi’s are there in 21 Million? 2,100,000,000,000,000After bitcoin becomes too expensive for the average person to deal with it in whole bitcoins (already the case for some people), we will begin dealing, speaking, and thinking in smaller units like millibitcoin and microbitcoin, but the most elemental bitcoin unit is the satoshi.How many satoshis are there (or at maximum)? This many:2,100,000,000,000,000Which is found by multiplying the maximum 21 million bitcoin by the number of satoshis per bitcoin, which is 100 million.How do you pronounce that huge number? Like this:"Two quadrillion one hundred trillion."5 Good MinutesQE InfinityThe United States Federal Reserve has suggested it could print unlimited money. Here's what that means for Bitcoin. Traditional markets are in dire straits. The S&P 500 has dropped to levels not seen since 2017, and the Dow Jones has fallen to levels not seen since 2016. In response, the Fed is doing all it can to try to stop the carnage, promising $1 trillion in daily repo operations (loans to banks) and further quantitative easing—putting more money into the system. The Hard TruthWhat I think is really going on…Fed Enlists BlackRock In Its Massive Debt-Buying ProgramsThe Federal Reserve tapped BlackRock Inc. to shepherd several debt-buying programs on behalf of the U.S. central bank as it works to revive an economy reeling from the spread of coronavirus.BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, will serve as an investment adviser and manage assets for three separate programs, the New York Fed said Tuesday. Those include two new facilities the central bank announced Monday to provide liquidity to corporate borrowers, as well as purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities.The Fed’s move to tap BlackRock carries echoes of the last U.S. financial crisis. In the fallout from the 2008 meltdown and its subsequent bailouts, the central bank turned to the asset manager to run portfolios of mortgage assets from Bear Stearns Cos. and insurer American International Group Inc.

First we need to acknowledge that Bitcoin wasn't sold because it stopped working or because it was 51% attacked. It hasn't lost its market share either in speculative interest. People are still purchasing Bitcoin at its current price of $5K. Soon USD will be pumping again especially when lower interest rates and more stimulus kick-in this week from the FED. But make no mistake this is an orchestrated crash of all markets. The stops in supply chain and industries is creating this Recession possibly turning into a Depression especially with all the panic and hysteria going on in the mainstream news.So what happened…It just happened to be caught in a temporary selling frenzy that affected other assets as well. This is the both positive and negative affects of institutional investors entering the industry. Thus, the recent selling is really not due to any breakdown in Bitcoin fundamentals. When this ordeal is finally over, we can expect Bitcoin to get back to where it was before along with equities. But of course, due to Stock to Flow Bitcoin will continue climbing with greater impetus than equities over the longer term.Coin Analysis: BitcoinWhat are the ramifications of the crash…Bitcoin & Crypto industry is going to go through a world of hurt. Look for Project layoffs soon to occur, mass liquidation of alt-coins is imminent. Now is not a time to buy alts for speculation. Also expect some companies in the industry not to make it out alive. Further drops in price will likely occur in the Bitcoin market pre and post halvening.Will need to watch the Miners the next few weeks as hash rates continue to increase and the price of Bitcoin drops. Profitable mining becomes a major problem very soon at these levels.$4800 becomes the key resistance level…heres why.If we break $4800 the next free fall is to $2800. This is still a possibility. The Energy Value model states that if all miners were to stop mining Bitcoin tomorrow, the power input would be zero and Bitcoin would be worthless. The power required to fuel Bitcoin mining is driven by two parts, the hash rate to solve the SHA-256 algorithm and the energy efficiency of the mining hardware itself. In its early years, Bitcoin was mined on very electrically inefficient CPUs and GPUs.The current era ASICs have energy efficiencies over 100,000 times greater than the average Bitcoin mining hardware of 2009. This means that a higher relative portion of the average miner’s electrical bill today is efficiently converted into hashing power.To estimate a historic profile of Bitcoin mining hardware Energy Efficiency, the efficiency rates for 150 Bitcoin hardware models from Cambridge (ASICs only), BitcoinWiki (FPGAs) and Bitcoin.it (ASICs, CPUs and GPUs) were collated. All ASICs, FPGAs and Intel, AMD and Nvidia hardware were considered where Energy Efficiency (J/GH) was provided and where an estimated hardware release date was found. Common models were grouped and the average energy efficiency for that model calculated on an equal weight basis.The daily energy efficiency of the Bitcoin network was then calculated as the equally weighted average of all hardware which was within 2 years of its release for CPUs/GPUs/FPGAs and within 1.5 years of its release for ASICs. This difference in depreciable lifespan was chosen because:The hardware within model groups for CPUs and GPUs generally span several yearsBitcoin mining was generally less competitive in its early yearsOther research also suggests a 1.5 year depreciation lifespan is typical for ASICs in more recent yearsFinally, a 1 month moving average of Energy Efficiency was calculated to allow for the phase-in and phase-out of model types.In reality, some hardware models had wider usage and some longer lifespans. However, at risk of increasing the historical error in the Energy Value model and in attempt to produce an unbiased outcome, no other hardware exclusion logic, data cleansing or data manipulation was conducted.Investors and speculators threw in the towel well before Bitcoin Miners in all of Bitcoins three major price crashes of over 80% this past decade. In 2011, 2014 & 2018. Hash rates declined following price declines…will that happen again in 2020? Future Predictions:What to expect next…I think, short-term, definitely Bitcoin is going to go down all the data is pointing in this direction. People need to withdraw that money. Also as the market trades down, people get more fearful and they'll be selling more Bitcoin and move it over to fiat to withdraw. In plain speak its a domino effect. Retail investors get more fearful and then as Bitcoin falls in value, people will wonder if Bitcoin is or isn't a store of value. Which continues to more and more selling. Rinse and Repeat. Possibly lets play this out…Everything right now in the Bitcoin & Crypto media is negative, “The Death of Bitcoin” headlines have been replaced with “Bitcoin is not a Store of Value?” when $1K drops do not happen in a week but in a day, and finally when the market has already dropped between 25–80% since the all-time high, intrinsic value and other key metrics can the fog lights through the heavy storm.The Bitcoin hash rate is the only one metric we have. It is relatively smooth compared to price and offers clarity on the Bitcoin market.According to Hash rate we are falling if this continues…expect further trend downwards in price.Key Take Aways:25% Chance. We might have just hit the reset button on Bitcoin & Crypto. Meaning this is 2010 all over again.Fed will lower interest rates in March. Fed's next monetary policy meeting is on March 18. Will be looking at Bitcoin closely this week.The health of the mining network is intrinsically linked to Bitcoin’s value. We must hold $4800.We need to watch Miners and what they do. Can they remain profitable will be crucial. Key level to watch is $2800.Next few weeks will be absolutely critical to the Bitcoin & Crypto industry going into the halvening.

An Analysis on BitcoinAbove is Bitcoin's current 2018-2020 and former 2014-2016 bull run cycle before the two Halving events (2nd and 3rd). The main goal is to now determine Pre-Pump Halving price and what levels we will be at around at the Halving and after.Listen to the previous Thriller Insider for some more clarity on the Current Bull Cycle Lets look at the numbers and 57.13% Bitcoin Theory…Bitcoin always peaks at 57.13% higher than its last high in the same bull run give or take (+/- 5%).Looking just at the current first half of this bull run, the first peak was $5,642; increase that by 57.13% and you get $8,865 (actual was $9,008), increase that by 57.13% and you get $13,930 (actual was $13,796), increase that by 57.13% and you get $21,888.You can also confirm this theory from the last bull run. The first peak was at $314. If you apply 57.13% increase progressively, you get:Projected Price using 57.13% Theory: $495 - $778 - $1,223 - $1,922 - $3,020 - $4,746 - $7,458 - $11,719 - $18,414.Actual Price: $495 - $778 - $1,191 - $1,873 - $3,000 - $4,974 - $7,776 - $11,517 - $18,353.The last bull run one was an anomaly at $20,089. Thinking this was just a pop off the top because of rush of the retail market buying in after $18,353.Applying the 57.13% Bitcoin Theory to the rest of this run are as follows give or take (+/- 5%): Projected: $21,888 - $34,393 - $54,042 - $84,916 - $133,429 $209,657 - $329,434. But of course we may not make it through all those stages because buying will exhaust at some point (important to keep that in mind.)Using the 57.13% Bitcoin Theory my safest guess would be the following give or take (+/- 5%): $21,888 by December 2020 $34,393 by February 2021 $54,042 by May 2021 $84,916 by August 2021$133,429 by October - December 2021.This will go right inline with our previous research that Bitcoin will be jumping & dropping 10K levels after the halving. 

🚀The Golden Bull Cycle Repeats…Trading Shot has calculated the remaining days of the current Bull Cycle. 🤓We are in based on the Top, Bottom and Halving of each Cycle. These parameters are effectively used to distinguish the Bull from the Bear Cycles. Tops are obviously where the Bull phase ends and Bear starts, while the Bottoms are where the Bear phase ends and the Bull starts.The 51%-49% Ratio and the importance of the HalvingThe focus of this study is the Bull Cycle. As you see on the chart there is a striking similarity on each Cycle. The phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically we can claim that the Halving seems to be the middle of each Bull Cycle.So where are we now?Based on the above ratio and with the 3rd Halving scheduled on May 12th, 2020, we can calculate that the first phase (51%) of the current Bull Cycle will last around 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018). The 49% which based on the previous two cycles has been the second phase should therefore last around 505 days, placing the Top of the current Bull Cycle in early October 2021! This means that there are around 600 days of Bull Cycle left!!Of course there are and will be several other parameters that can influence the cycle (we saw that on the April-June 2019 parabolic explosion) but this is a good (and so far very accurate) pattern that long term Bitcoin investors can follow. It certainly answers the question "is it too late to buy?" though!10K Moves in Single Day….This one is for the believers. Not for the average person who said in 2010 "Bitcoin is at $0.05 it can't make a $1 move in a single day, are you crazy?" or in 2011 " Bitcoin at $2 and you think it can move $100 in ONE day??" or in 2015 "We are now at $200, which is 1000 below the $1200 All Time High and you are telling ME that Bitcoin can move $1000 in ONE day??". Or even those who will now rush to say "A $10000 single day move?? You must be nuts, do you now how high the market cap would be??".Do you guys see the pattern? Denial denial and denial since Day 1. So if you are this type of person (who obviously has uncanny skills at missing lifetime opportunities) you can skip this idea and move on to the next one.The previous movesNow what do we know about the previous single day moves of $1, $10, $100 and $1000 that have taken place thus far?The first +$1 move in a single day was in April 30, 2011 when Bitcoin rose from $2.75 to 4.05 (approximately). This was made on the High before the top of the Bull Cycle.The first +$10 move in a single day was in June 11, 2011 when Bitcoin declined from $23.90 to 13.25 (approximately). This was made at the Top of the Bull Cycle.The first +$100 move in a single day was in April 10, 2013 when Bitcoin declined from $270 to 120 (approximately). This was made on the High before the top of the Bull Cycle.The first +$1000 move in a single day was in November 29, 2017 when Bitcoin declined from $11400 to 9100 (approximately). This was made at the Top of the Bull Cycle.From the above info we realize that Bitcoin tends to make its first single day moves of such magnitude in declines.Also notice how the $1000 - $10000 zone didn't have a +$1000 move in a single day and interrupted the streak of the zones below which all gave a first day of X move.See also how every X move is made either on the last High before the top of the Bull Cycle or on (near) the Top of the Bull Cycle itself. Never in any other point of the Cycle. This is normal as such historic (at the time) moves tend to be created on large volume when the public in either in excessive euphoria or fear. Also notice how each X move takes turns between the High before and the Top of the Bull Cycle.So when will we see the $10000 move in one single day?Based on the above since the last move ($1000) was made at the Top of the (previous) Bull Cycle and since the moves take turns, the next turn is for a last High before the top of the Bull Cycle. Based however on Bitcoin's Historic Parabolic Growth Channel, this puts the $10000 move marginally below the 100000. Why is this a problem? Because there have never been two X moves within the same zone and the 10000 - 100000 zone already gave us the $1000 move. Can this be because the 1000 - 10000 missed that move, and was postponed a channel later? Maybe. But still it is more logical (and safer to assume) that then $10000 move in one single day will be made on the next zone (100000 - 1000000), which puts it however at (or near) the Top of the Bull Cycle (which breaks the sequence of turns).

The RundownDigital Industrial RevolutionIt is starting to look like China is going full blockchain with plans to issue a central bank stablecoin, presumably to regain power from which controls the vast majority of payments in the country.They’re going so far as to remove articles that say blockchain tech is a scam. Freedom of speech so being a luxury in China.Like Russia before them, they too now claim they want to be at the forefront of blockchain implementations, with it unclear whether they can and/or what effect this might have.Russia, The Big Error of HistoryRussia’s president Vladimir Putin has gone so far as to even ordered the central bank to step down when the latter hinted at a dislike towards this space.That they want to orchestrate a drive towards blockchain integration is clear, but whether they can is a different matter.China, The Open Markets DilemmaA a simple trajectory of the blockchain starts in London, then USA, Russia, France , Venezuela and Iran on one hand, Saudis on the other, and now to China.China has many very smart men and women who enjoyed and still enjoy fairly close relations or at least have interactions with western talent.The problem is China’s firewall, which in this case is an almost physical firewall in that they have banned crypto exchanges, and thus any western interest in the country where the crypto or blockchain aspects are concerned.It’s unlikely they’d be able to lead. It is perhaps even impossible realistically thinking because China might have surface knowledge but not the deep knowhow that comes from being at the forefront of the computer revolution during a period ranging from the 70s to the 90s when the latter went mainstream, and then at the forefront of the internet age thereafter.Bitcoin Jumps 12% as China’s Xi Embraces Blockchain, Boosting Crypto SentimentBitcoin prices are rebounding from a five-month low touched earlier this week.Chinese President Xi Jinping said his country should seize opportunities afforded by blockchain, the technology that underpins bitcoin.Despite China’s ban on cryptocurrency exchanges in 2017, the comments from the leader of the world’s second-largest economy could boost sentiment toward digital assets in general, providing a positive market backdrop for bitcoin, says eToro’s Mati Greenspan.Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, said the country needs to “seize the opportunity” afforded by blockchain technology.Speaking as part of the 18th collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on Thursday in Beijing, Xi said blockchain technology has a wide array of applications within China, listing topics ranging from financing businesses to mass transit and poverty alleviation.“We must take the blockchain as an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies,” Xi told committee members.“[We must] clarify the main direction, increase investment, focus on a number of key core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.”United States, The ComplacentThe United States has one very big problem. It is ruled by bankers. That’s a generalization and perhaps not a fully correct statement, but that banks have immense influence is far too clear.Banks of course are not a monolithic entity. In addition, there’s a generational divide. The older generation which thinks this blockchain stuff is complete nonsense, and the younger one that sees the need to adapt.This generational transition of power has just begun, but the older generation is in many respects doing much to slow down innovation and in the case of Libra they’re thinking of stopping it entirely.The other big transition in the United States is a very slow but noticeable change in power balances between the techies riding the wave of the digital revolution, and the old finance.Plenty of the latter will adapt, but their instinct naturally has been to slow down digitally native finance.We pass no judgment on whether these are right decisions or not, at least not in this editorial, as going a bit slowly may well be to the benefit of all in the United States for now.Yet just how slowly, can be very crucial because that would give China a window of opportunity in what American historians would probably call the great mistake if it came to pass.5 Good MinutesBakkt to Launch Crypto ‘Consumer App’In a blog post, Bakkt chief product officer Mike Blandina wrote that the company was working on developing an app to let consumers use digital assets when purchasing goods from merchants.“We’ll be launching a consumer app to make it easy for consumers to discover and unlock the value of digital assets, as well as ways in which they can transact or track them. Merchants gain access to a broader set of customers with expanded spending power,” Blandina wrote.He hinted that the app might support more than just bitcoin, which is currently the only digital asset Bakkt and its parent company Intercontinental Exchange provide futures contracts for.“A key feature of the model we’ve designed is to support a superset of digital assets, including cryptocurrencies as seamlessly as investors transact in stocks in a retail brokerage account,” he wrote. “Our vision is to provide a consumer platform for managing a digital asset portfolio, whether they wish to store, transact, trade or transfer their assets.”The Hard TruthBinance charged Blockstack $250,000 prior to listing Stacks. Yes another Binance Story.Binance charged Blockstack $250,000 to list StacksBlockstack says it was a “long term payment” not a “listing fee”Several 20-year plus exchange veterans tell The Block that’s likely a bunch of malarkey 

What is an inverted yield curve?To understand what an inverted yield curve is, you must first understand one of the most basic financial asset classes out there: Bonds.A bond is like an IOU given to you by a bank. When you lend the bank money, it’ll give you back that same amount at a later time along with a fixed amount of interest.For example, if you bought a two-year bond for $100 with a 2% annual return on it, that means you’ll get $104.04 back after two years (this accounts for compounding).Yes, that’s a low return rate. However, bonds have a number of benefits that justify the small rate of return:They’re an extremely stable investment. This is especially true when it comes to government bonds. The only way you can lose your money with them is if the government defaulted on its loans — which the U.S. government has never done.They’re guaranteed to have a return. This means that you’ll know exactly how much you’re getting on your ROI when you purchase a bond.Longer investments yield higher returns. The longer you’re willing to wait on your bond typically means that you’re going to have higher return rates. I say typically because there are exceptions to this (Hint: It has to do with what we’re talking about right now).And when people refer to inverted yield curves, they’re typically referring to the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, or bonds guaranteed to investors by the U.S. government.The Fed Is Going to Buy Bonds Again. It’s Not a Stimulus Effort.The Federal Reserve will resume the expansion of its balance sheet soon. Just don’t call it quantitative easing.Following a sudden rise in overnight bank funding costs in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the central bank will begin increasing its securities holdings to “maintain an appropriate level of reserves.” This should be viewed as a technical adjustment and different from the large-scale asset purchases the central bank undertook to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis, he said in a speech to the National Association of Business Economists in Denver, according to the text.This move would be in keeping with the Fed’s “ample reserve” operating policy established in the wake of the financial crisis, in which the central bank controlled the federal-funds rate—its primary policy target—by establishing the interest it pays on bank reserves. Before the financial crisis, the Fed would control the fed-funds rate through open-market operations—the purchases and sales of securities—to maintain a scarcity of reserves.Some market observers are calling the Federal Reserve’s recent commitment to buy billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury bills QE4—the start of a fourth round of so-called quantitative easing meant to boost a flagging economy. The underlying problem was a systemic shortage of money. Fed officials wrongly believed the banking system was flush with more reserves than it needed. In reality, the system was operating on a knife edge where small changes in the quantity of reserves generated large changes in price. Inverted Yield Curve Suggesting Recession Around The Corner?If we look at the data past yield curve inversions in the US. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield (10Y2Y) going back to 1976.Notice that before almost every recession, the yield curve inverted and then steepened.And how often did the yield curve invert and no recession followed within two years of the first inversion? Zero.

The RundownThe 18 Millionth BitcoinThe countdown begins to the 18 millionth Bitcoin (BTC) that was expected to be mined early Friday morning.The most popular cryptocurrency currently has 18,000,137.5 Bitcoin in existence. At a rate of 1,800 BTC mined daily.After this, there are just three million left to be mined from a total of 21 million Bitcoin. Notably, it is said that about 14 to 19 percent of BTC is gone or lost forever. There are also stolen coins, and some hundred thousand stashed away by Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous person believed to have created Bitcoin.Bitcoin HalvingIn May 2020, the scheduled "Bitcoin halving" will take place wherein the reward for Bitcoin miners for solving a block that connects transactions will be down to 6.25 from 12.5 Bitcoins.  Then, there will be about 376,562.5 left to mine when the next halving occurs, which is due every four years. The code in BTC is designed in such a way that limits the production of the cryptocurrency homologizing it to gold, which opposes how the fiat money is easily printed.5 Good MinutesFATF Joins BIS in Calling Stablecoins “Global Risk”Stablecoins pose a money laundering and terrorist financing risk to the world, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) said Friday.In documents released after its latest meeting, the intergovernmental organization referred to cryptocurrencies as a “major strategic initiative,” and said cryptos whose values are pegged to fiat currencies could have a particularly big impact.Some 800 representatives from 205 jurisdictions met from Oct. 16 to Oct. 18 to discuss various issues under the jurisdiction of FATF, led this year by Xiangmin Liu of China, according to the publication. Crypto-related concerns were front and center.While the document addressed cryptocurrencies broadly, it singled out stablecoins on multiple occasions, writing:“Emerging assets such as so-called global ‘stablecoins’, and their proposed global networks and platforms, could potentially cause a shift in the virtual asset ecosystem and have implications for the money laundering and terrorist financing risks. There are two concerns: mass-market adoption of virtual assets and person-to-person transfers, without the need for a regulated intermediary. Together these changes could have serious consequences for our ability to detect and prevent money laundering and terrorist financing.”A second document, titled “Money laundering risks from ‘stablecoins’ and other emerging assets,” said the FATF will continue to examine the characteristics and perceived risks of stablecoins and may even clarify or update its virtual currency guidance to better address this class of cryptocurrency.“The FATF will continue to ensure its standards remain relevant and responsive and it will report to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in 2020 on the risks from global ‘stablecoins’ and other emerging assets,” the second document read.The FATF’s warning followed a report from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies and the and Bank of International Settlements (BIS) calling stablecoins a growing threat to monetary policy, financial stability and competition.The Hard TruthCircle to Spin Out PoloniexCrypto exchange Poloniex is spinning out from its parent firm Circle, the companies announced Friday.According to a pair of blog posts, Poloniex will now become Polo Digital Assets, Ltd., an “independent international company” backed by an unnamed Asian investment firm. The trading platform will not serve U.S. customers after this year.In Friday’s blog post, Circle co-founders Jeremy Allaire and Sean Neville wrote:“It is bittersweet for Circle to see this incredible product and business spin out on its own … We’ve made enormous progress with Poloniex, including massive infrastructure improvements, adding more fiat options with USDC integration, launching best in class native apps for traders, and building global operations capabilities that can deliver excellent customer service.”

The RundownOne of Germany’s biggest bank predicts bitcoin will reach $90,000 due to the halvening based on a stock to flow model that measures the hardness of a money. “The stock-to-flow approach originating in commodity-market analysis serves to quantify the ‘hardness’ of an asset. Applied to Bitcoin, an unusually strong correlation emerges between the market value of this cryptocurrency and the ratio between existing stockpiles of Bitcoin (‘stock’) and new supply (‘flow’),” they say.“Satoshi’s ‘stroke of genius’ was to decouple supply from price and from mining efforts (in Bitcoin’s case: computing power). It is worth noting that this ‘difficulty adjustment’ was absent in the case of all Bitcoin’s predecessors, e.g. Bit Gold…Historically, the Bitcoin Halving has proven to be an important catalyst that propels Bitcoin into a new Bull Market.In fact, Bitcoin tends to begin its new bull trend at least a year before its Halving.Bitcoin Halving #1 — November 2012Bitcoin Halving #2 — July 2016Bitcoin Halving #3 — May 20201. Bitcoin has rallied 12,000%-13,300% in each of its Halvings to dateThe first Bitcoin Halving spurred 13,378% growth in Bitcoin’s price whereas the second Bitcoin Halving spurred a 12,160% rally.A 12,160% rally from Bitcoin’s mid-December 2018 bear market bottom of $3,150 would result in a ~$385,000 Bitcoin.By the same token a 13,378% rally would lead to a ~$425,000 Bitcoin.A $385,000 Bitcoin is very interesting because that would mean that Bitcoin’s Market Cap (i.e. $189 billion as of this writing) will have eclipsed the current Market Cap of Gold (i.e. $7.8 trillion).Bitcoin Halvings #1 and #2 — A Detailed BreakdownA new Market Cycle high tends to be made just before the Halving but it doesn’t eclipse the old All-Time HighSince mid-December 2018, Bitcoin rallied over 340% which closely resembles the 383% rally that Bitcoin experienced leading up to its second Halving.If Bitcoin were to rally 383% like it did prior to Halving #2, it would reach a new Market Cycle high of ~$15,000 which is higher than the current Market Cycle local top of $13,900 as of this writing.This turn of events would satisfy the historical tendencies of setting a new Market Cycle prior to the Halving but not a new All-Time High.This in turn would also satisfy another key tendency: if Bitcoin rallies less pre-Halving, it will rally more post-Halving (and for a longer period of time).Should this tendency play out once again, this would mean that Bitcoin would have a higher likelihood of rallying over 13,000% compared to the 12,000% rally from Halving #2.On the other hand however, if Bitcoin were to rally similarly to its 663% uptrend prior to Halving #1, that would mean that Bitcoin would reach a price point of almost $24,000 prior to Halving #3.Of course, this would lead to a new All-Time High prior to the third Halving which is something that goes against the aforementioned historical tendency.It is for this reason that Bitcoin’s price action may continue to closely resemble its price action prior to Halving #2.Should this be the case, it would take Bitcoin a longer time to manage its typical post-Halving growth (after all, it took Bitcoin over 500 days post-Halving #2 to manage an over 12,000% rally to new ATHs).If Bitcoin’s post-Halving #3 growth resembles Bitcoin’s post-Halving #2 growth, then Bitcoin may see a new All-Time High over 500 days after the Halving (i.e. by Quarter 4, 2021).3. After a new Market Cycle high is set, a retrace will occur prior to the HalvingA retrace may very well occur prior to the Halving which would figure as a financial opportunity for both traders and investors alike.4. New All-Time High in Bitcoin’s price will occur after the HalvingHistorically, Bitcoin has set a new All-Time High after every Halving.Whatever All-Time High price Bitcoin reaches, this new record is most likely to take place many months after the Halving.Make sure to check Rekt Capital on Medium for more info just like this.5 Good MinutesWhere is Bitcoin Price Heading?The Hard TruthPaypal Exits Libra – Mastercard and Visa May FollowThe Libra Association’s head of policy and communications, Dante Disparte, reportedly told media outlet the Verge:This journey to build a generational payment network like the Libra project is not an easy path. We recognize that change is hard, and that each organization that started this journey will have to make its own assessment of risks and rewards of being committed to seeing through the change that Libra promises.The representative went on to affirm that the upcoming Libra council meeting is still set for October 14 in Geneva.

The United States is currently experiencing one of the longest periods of economic expansion in its history. However, the expansion has not reached all households and many are struggling to cover the costs of basic emergencies. At the same time, economic growth appears to be slowing, and there are warning signs that a recession is possible in the near future. While downturns are difficult to predict, policymakers have a responsibility both to assess whether the country is prepared for the next recession and to implement approaches to protect Americans from the worst outcomes. Although the economy has been growing since 2009, even those who have benefited from this growth are still feeling the effects of the Great Recession. While recessions are harmful in a variety of ways—most significantly because people lose their jobs—they also leave a permanent mark on people’s consciousness. For some, there is the pain of being forced to take a lower-level job. For others, jobs are not even available.Several generations have been adversely and permanently affected by the Great Recession. Millennials, many of whom had only recently entered the labor market at the time of the recession, have altered their behavior because of the downturn, delaying big purchases such as houses. Baby Boomers with nest eggs wrapped up in the stock market saw their savings nearly wiped out. Homeowners of all ages were and continue to be profoundly affected.Definition of Monetary Policy 3Though most of us haven’t seen it in our lifetimes, it has existed in other lifetimes and other places. MP3 is a continuum of coordinated monetary and fiscal policies that vary who gets the money (private sector versus public sector) and how directly that printed money is provided (directly providing “helicopter money” to spenders versus more indirect means of financing spending). The following diagram maps many of the possible types of MP3 onto that continuum. In general, the more direct policies would be more effective, but also more politically difficult to do. And some of the least direct policies (or variants of them) have recently been used, but not at the scale that would likely be needed in the next significant downturn.

The Real Story Of The Repo Market Meltdown, And What It Means For Bitcoin:Last week the financial system ran out of cash. It was a modern version of a bank run, and it’s not over yet. Stepping back, it reveals two big things about financial markets: first, US Treasuries are not truly “risk-free” assets, as most consider them to be, and second, big banks are significantly under-capitalized. The event doesn’t mean another financial meltdown is necessarily imminent—just that the risk of one is heightened—since the brush fire can be doused either by the Fed, or by the banks raising more equity capital. However, it provides a “teachable moment” regarding systemic fragility and anti-fragility. What’s Happening, In Plain English?Somebody—probably a big bank—needs cash so badly that it has been willing to pay a shockingly high cost to obtain it. That’s the layman’s explanation of what’s happening. Interest rates have betrayed common sense—interest rates in the repo market should be lower than rates in unsecured markets, for example, because repos are secured by assets and thus supposedly lower-risk. But repo rates spiked way above unsecured lending rates last week, even for “risk-free” collateral such as US Treasuries. But US Treasuries are not risk-free. Far from it. (By this, I’m not referring to the US potentially defaulting on its debt obligations. Rather, I’m referring to the practice in the repo market that allows more people to believe they own US Treasuries than actually do. It’s called “rehypothecation.”) Why was someone willing to borrow cash at a 10% interest rate last Tuesday, in exchange for pledging US Treasury collateral that yields only 2% or less? That trade lost someone a whopping 8% (annualized) overnight, but presumably the trade allowed the bank to stay in business for another day. As risk premiums go, 8% is shockingly high—for a supposedly risk-free asset!At a systemic level, the traditional financial system is as fragile as Bitcoin is anti-fragile.An anti-fragile system is one that becomes stronger and more resilient as a result of shocks, not weaker. This describes Bitcoin, whose network security grows as the system’s processing power grows. Here I distinguish between price volatility and systemic volatility. Bitcoin’s price is highly volatile, but as a system it is more stable. In stark contrast to the traditional financial system, Bitcoin is not a debt-based system that periodically experiences bank run-like instability. In this regard, Bitcoin is an insurance policy against financial market instability. Bitcoin is no one’s IOU. It has no lender of last resort because it doesn’t need one. For me, Bitcoin is empowering because it provides a choice to opt out of the traditional financial system. In light of the traditional financial system’s instability, despite all of Bitcoin’s drawbacks, I find that a powerful concept.Coin Analysis: Bitcoin

US: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell SpeechJerome Powell isn't sounding too dovish, once again saying the economy is performing well and is in a "good place." The Federal Reserve chair described today's employment report for August, where payroll growth slowed, as consistent with a strong labor market. Powell also said the consumer sector remains strong but that manufacturing is moving sideways to down. And the chair did cite risks to the outlook, including slowing global growth and low inflation. He said trade uncertainty is hampering business investment which has been a focal point for the Fed this year and was cited as a major factor in its July decision to cut rates for the first time this cycle. Whether the Fed cuts rates again at the FOMC later this month is less than certain, though Powell did say that the Fed is watching risks carefully and will act as appropriate. On the question of a possible recession, Powell said the Fed is not expecting nor forecasting one. Digital Economy Report 2019The rapid spread of digital technologies is transforming many economic and social activities. However, widening digital divides threaten to leave developing countries, and especially least developed countries, even further behind. A smart embrace of new technologies, enhanced partnerships and greater intellectual leadership are needed to redefine digital development strategies and the future contours of globalization. This first edition of the Digital Economy Report – previously known as the Information Economy Report − examines the implications of the emerging digital economy for developing countries in terms of value creation and capture. It highlights the two main drivers of value creation in the digital era − digital data and platformization – and explores how current trends of wealth concentration could be replaced by trajectories leading to more equitable sharing of the gains from digitalization. A and China leading the worldThe report highlighted the dominance of the two superpowers, saying that the US and China accounted for “75 percent of all patents related to blockchain technologies, 50 percent of global spending on the “Internet of Things” (IoT), and more than 75 percent of the world market for public cloud computing.”Not only that, but the two nations hold 90 percent of the market capitalization value of the world’s 70 largest digital platform companies. This is due to the major internet companies, like Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook heralding from the US and Tencent as well as Alibaba from China. The aggressive expansion of these companies is no doubt a deciding factor in the dominance of the US and China. In terms of digital currencies, Facebook is the most notable in its currency move. Most of these companies have looked towards blockchain too, like Alibaba and Baidu. Bitcoin Trading at Record Inverse Correlation With YuanBloomberg has reported that the 30-day inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the yuan has reached a record low, implying that the trade war has forced Chinese investors to adopt BTC.

Car discusses the latest BlackRock Investment Institute MACRO AND MARKET PERSPECTIVES for AUGUST 2019 Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordinationhttps://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-macro-perspectives-august-2019.pdfHe specifically dives into the the portion of the report where they discuss Monetary Financing. They also mention Cryptocurrencies as not playing a role in the next downturn.For example, policy innovations in the next downturn will likely need to take inequality more directly into account to be politically palatable. Not all asset purchase programs are born equal when it comes to their impact on inequality. Policy responses that put money more directly in the hands of citizens might be more attractive. The rise of central bank-issued electronic money (not cryptocurrencies) might achieve these objectives in ways that were not previously possible. But this is also a slippery slope. A drift away from central bank independence – where the overall monetary policy stance is dominated by short-term political considerations – could quickly open the door to uncontrolled fiscal spending. The risk is real. This slippery slope leads to arguments that monetary policy can finance fiscal deficits – and that there is only a tenuous link between inflation and money-financed deficits, as some proponents “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) claim. The key is that coordination does not require giving up central bank independence. Instead, policy frameworks need to evolve to acknowledge that it is not the response itself that needs to be independent. The policy response in times of crisis will have to involve elements of both fiscal and monetary policy. But the contribution of monetary and fiscal authorities to the response can still be cleanly separated. The approach described on the next page provides a concrete example of how this can be done. He also discusses the Big Four – a group of huge financial holding companies that control many sectors of the economy in the US and abroad. BlackRock being one of them. Other members of the Big Four also include: the Vanguard Group; State Street Corporation; and FMR Corporation (Fidelity). FMR Corporation as you know is extremely bullish on Bitcoin. 

Today we are talking Bitcoin and the Next Recession. This is not to scare you but to give you different scenarios on what could occur during the next global financial crisis like in 2008 (type level financial crisis.)Go back and listen to Thriller Coin Talk: The End of Central Banking where I discusses why the world’s monetary system is being destroyed.  Well according to Barron’s The chatter surrounding the timing of the next recession is only getting louder, with two-thirds of economists now predicting that we will see some sort of economic downturn by the end of 2020. As we prepare for what many consider to be the inevitable, I’m frequently asked by investors and colleagues: “How will a future recession impact the cryptocurrency industry?”  This new, decentralized asset class was born at the tail end of the housing crisis, and has yet to experience the full force of a recession or even lengthy bear market. What I can say with certainty, however, is that few industries will have more to learn and more to teach: because not all 2,000 cryptocurrencies are alike and, as such, not all 2,000 cryptocurrencies will respond the same way to market pressure. I think we have to look at some key factors by zooming out. 1st) I think, short-term, definitely Bitcoin is going to go down. People need to withdraw that money. Also as the market trades down, people get more fearful and they'll be selling more Bitcoin and move it over to fiat to withdraw. In plain speak its a domino effect. Retail investors get more fearful and then as Bitcoin falls in value, people will wonder if Bitcoin is or isn't a store of value. Which continues to more and more selling. Rinse and Repeat.2nd) Today is a Trial Run of sorts, it truly is…which is good (I promise keep reading.) Because it will really depend on how big this next global recession will be and how the Bitcoin market will react. Which today was a precursor, a sort of announcement to the world, “Hey look were heading towards a global recession.” Starting this morning…BTC began to fall sharply from $10,862 to as low as $9,888 before traders bought the price back up above $10,000. It marks the worst single-day loss since July 16, approximately 30 days ago.3rd) Pay attention to Miners and what they do. Mining will be incredibly interesting to watch and how that impacts the Bitcoin/crypto ecosystem. We need a set of miners that are able to operate at lower costs and what happens when other miners are unable to mine in this global recession? Does that increases the chances of a 51% attack? Which could lead to another major drop in price and sentiment. 4th) What happens to exchanges? Think about it…suddenly there's a major global recession and retail investors and holders of last resort are pulling money and everyone's pulling money…at the same time from multiple exchanges? Do we really know what the deposit ratio is for Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase? Do they know? What happens if everyone suddenly pulls at the same time from some of the biggest exchanges? Can we cover it all? Will we be paid in Tether or USDC?5th) Finally Bitcoin needs this challenge. Yes that’s right I said it. We need this challenge. Bitcoin / Crypto as an industry needs to survive this next recession, this is not being talked about in the industry and is not really being considered, we need to have these conversations now…to prepare.Show Note Promises:The packet of slides sent to clients early this week, from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. technical analyst Sheba Jafari. Interesting, she brightly predicated last years fall under 5K in February. To view the full document check out the link below. https://www.scribd.com/document/421604963/Goldman-Sachs-slide-deck#download&from_embed 

By October 2019, the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to decide whether to approve two bitcoin ETF applications. Filed by Bitwise Asset Management and VanEck, these ETFs would give investors a simpler way to gain exposure to bitcoin cryptocurrency. Approval doesn’t mean immediate launch—that could take time. But if approved and launched, should you invest in it?How big can the ETF market become?In 2017 was a record year for the global ETF market. Assets invested in ETFs and other exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached a new all-time high of $4.8 Trillion. “So far, assets in global ETFs have doubled every five years,” says Bryon Lake, head of international ETFs at JP Morgan Asset Management. “So can we reach $10 Trillion in assets in 2022, compared to the current $5trn? It’s a stretch but it’s entirely possible.”The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission again delayed a decision on approving three Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, dealing another blow to those in the cryptocurrencies community holding on to the belief that a favorable decision was imminent. The regulator postponed until October a ruling on whether listing rules can change to allow the two funds to start trading. Decisions for both the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust, which wants to track the 10 largest digital tokens, and the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust.

The term “Black Swan Event” describes certain events in history so profoundly unexpected and massive in scale, that they fundamentally changed the course of history. There are good Black Swans and bad Black swan. One black swan event was perhaps the genesis of bitcoin’s birth: The subprime mortgage crisis which almost brought down the entire banking industry. Economic storm clouds have long been gathering on the horizon, and lightning struck this week with the Dow erasing two months of gains, and the Chinese yuan falling to a level not seen since 2008. With Bitcoin surging, is the digital currency turning into a safe-haven asset?Bitcoin is now the 11th largest money in the world, and it obtained this with only a nine-page paper created anonymously fueled by a grassroots movement. Millions of people have chosen a bank with no CEO, office or marketing department and it should absolutely blow your mind and scare you at the same time.

The last three or four decades have seen a remarkable evolution in the institutions that comprise the modern monetary system. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is a wakeup call that we need a similar evolution in the analytical apparatus and theories that we use to understand that system. Three features of the new system are central. Most important, the intertwining of previously separate capital markets and money markets has produced a system with new dynamics as well as new vulnerabilities. The financial crisis revealed those vulnerabilities for all to see. New York Fed President John Williams, among others, has made the case that the Fed has limited medicine in the medicine cabinet to aid the economy and that it’s better to administer the pills at the first signs of trouble rather than waiting for full-blown illness when there might not be enough medicine left to make a difference. Interest rates are very low by historical standards. For example, the benchmark rate was over 5 percent before the Fed started reducing it in 2007. Now the benchmark rate is half that amount, meaning there will be less stimulus this time around from cutting rates. America enjoys a unique position of power over the world’s financial system thanks to the supremacy of the US dollar. But several of the nation’s adversaries appear to think they’ve found a clever way around this decades-old setup: cryptocurrency. This is because an interest rate cut reduces the yield on a currency. Further, the liquidity added to the economy via rate cuts often leads to inflation and loss of purchasing power of the currency. Put simply, falling interest rates mean fewer reasons to hold U.S. dollars, as pointed out by Alan Silbert, executive managing director at INX Trading Platform. Silbert believes the Fed will deliver more rate cuts in the near future. The Fed has cut rates less than 12 months away from bitcoin’s mining reward halving – a process aimed at curbing inflation by reducing reward for mining on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years. Essentially, BTC’s monetary policy is on a preset path – its supply is halved every four years. The monetary policy divergence would widen further if the Fed embarks on a full-blown easing cycle, as anticipated by Silbert. That would further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as store of value and may bolster the bull market.Sources: Travis Kling, Perry G Mehrlinghttps://www.coursera.org/learn/money-banking

Car discusses bullish scenarios for Bitcoin in 2019. The halving is in 314 days. Bitcoin's inflation rate will be cut to 1.8%. Why is that important? It will be lower than central banks target of 2% inflation. In 2012 when Bitcoin halved the price was $12.50. In 2016 it was $650, up 50x over 4 years. If Bitcoin appreciates 50x again, at the 2020 halving the price will be $32,000 per Bitcoin. If it does it again for 2024 the price will be 1.6 million a coin. In 2019 most Bitcoin OG’s report, the geopolitical risks that weighed on global economic growth in the second half of 2018 would likely carry through to 2019. That uncertainty would be a boom for Bitcoin prices, as institutional investor demand is expected to increase Bitcoin's effective and increasing hedging role.

Car deep dives to find key discoveries into why Bakkt and ErisX are massive factors at play for later this year. The fact remains ErisX and Bakkt both want to launch bitcoin futures, but the two firms are taking different approaches to the market according to their executives. Until now both firms have been waiting for the regulatory green light. According to a statement from the company, ErisX just obtained a derivatives clearing organization license (DCO) this week, allowing the exchange's upcoming clearinghouse to clear digital asset futures contracts.