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Morgan Stanley
Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Sheets: The Case for Optimism in the Near Term
Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although their base case for continued market strength is measured, there is an argument to be made for a bull case forecast.
02:5307/08/2020
Mike Wilson: Who’s Driving The Growth in U.S. Money Supply?
Growth in money supply is one of the most powerful indicators for rising inflation—and it's currently rising at record levels. How should investors position portfolios?
03:5103/08/2020
Andrew Sheets: A Refreshing Pause for Markets?
With the precipitous drop in U.S. GDP and the effects of monetary and fiscal interventions, the rest of third quarter may be a moment for investors to take a breather.
03:2231/07/2020
Michael Zezas: Considering a Potential U.S.-China Decoupling
As tensions between the U.S. and China tick higher, investors are weighing the chances of a potential U.S.-China economic decoupling—and what it might look like.
02:4629/07/2020
Special Episode: Investment Themes for a Post-COVID World
The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and macro trends will likely affect investing fundamentals for years to come. Our experts weigh in on several high-level themes for investors.
10:2828/07/2020
Mike Wilson: Have Stocks “Pulled Forward” Too Much?
Some U.S. stocks have reaped the benefits of a pull forward in demand thanks to effects of the pandemic. But with valuations rich, is a correction now ahead?
04:1927/07/2020
Special Episode, Part 2: COVID-19 - How Close Are We to a Vaccine?
In the second of a special two-part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about market response to new data in the race for a vaccine.
08:1224/07/2020
Special Episode: COVID-19 - Preparing for Fall's Second Wave
In the first of a special two part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about new case projections ahead of fall and flu season.
08:3923/07/2020
Michael Zezas: States Look to D.C. to Fill Budget Holes
Local and state governments across the U.S. are eagerly watching whether a new round of stimulus will help them address budget shortfalls. Will Congress deliver?
02:1722/07/2020
Mike Wilson: Adapting to The Ninth Wonder of the World
Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson explains.
04:1720/07/2020
Andrew Sheets: Bracing for Challenges Ahead
While July contains a number of potentially positive market events, August and September could present a number of potentially problematic ones.
03:0717/07/2020
Michael Zezas: Coronavirus - Why Another Stimulus Deal is Likely
Could a new $1 trillion stimulus deal make its way through the halls of Congress before the summer recess? Why the likelihood of a deal is increasing.
02:3315/07/2020
Mike Wilson: U.S. Markets Weigh Optimism; Uncertainty
U.S. equities—tech stocks in particular—have powered higher since March lows, but investors are still parsing Q2 earnings, a coming election and rising COVID-19 cases.
04:0213/07/2020
Andrew Sheets: Pressure Testing the “Overoptimistic Markets” Argument
The sharp rebound in stock and corporate bond markets has made some question if markets are a bit too upbeat about a speedy recovery. There’s just one problem with this view.
03:1510/07/2020
Michael Zezas: How Should Investors Ride a Potential “Blue Wave”?
Although the U.S. election is anything but predictable four months away, investors may still want to consider how markets would react to a Democrat sweep.
02:3708/07/2020
Mike Wilson: Is Inflation Healthy for an Economy?
While excessive inflation can be disruptive, such as in the 1970’s, a deflationary mindset can often be more destructive—and difficult to reverse. What current inflation trends mean for investors.
04:0706/07/2020
Andrew Sheets: The Legacy of Alexander Hamilton
Although Alexander Hamilton couldn’t have foreseen the current health crisis facing the U.S., his ideas remain relevant—and key to the recovery—more than 200 years later.
03:1202/07/2020
Mike Wilson: Two Key Points about a U.S. Recovery
Although a worrying trend in new U.S. COIVD-19 cases has some investors understandably bearish, they may be overlooking two key points about earnings and sentiment.
02:5629/06/2020
Special Episode, Part 2: Europe Navigates the Coronavirus
Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic—both in managing the outbreak and in policy response—has been strong. Here’s what it means for asset classes in the region.
07:3126/06/2020
Special Episode: “Reopening” at the Tipping Point
How should investors think about the recovery as the U.S. balances reopening with concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections?
09:4725/06/2020
Michael Zezas: Is Multipolarity the New Megatrend?
How should investors view a world where there may be room for more than one norm when it comes the balance of power among economies and commerce?
02:4624/06/2020
Mike Wilson: Investor Reactions to a More Constructive Outlook
Many investors are still looking at the current recession as an anomaly rather than as the end of a cycle. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains the implications.
03:5922/06/2020
Andrew Sheets: Is This Recession Actually… Normal?
While the macro events of the last few months are certainly extreme by the standards of history, the current business cycle may be more normal than is appreciated.
03:3619/06/2020
Michael Zezas: Another Round of U.S. Pandemic Relief?
Two common doubts about another round of fiscal stimulus center on the politics of passage and election year strategy. Here’s why Congress could agree on a package.
02:1017/06/2020
Mike Wilson: The Highs and Lows of New Bull Markets
Equity markets became a bit frothy during early June as optimism over a recovery took hold. So while a correction may be afoot, it isn’t atypical for a young bull market.
04:1415/06/2020
Special Episode: Europe’s Moment of Solidarity
The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political and economic unity.
11:5712/06/2020
Michael Zezas: Unpacking the Politics of Deficits
Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a plus for the economy.
03:3010/06/2020
Andrew Sheets: A Significant Moment for the Eurozone
Over the last decade, global investors have been lukewarm toward European assets, but three encouraging developments may be set to change that investing narrative.
03:1709/06/2020
Mike Wilson: Rates Play Catch-Up, Again
Depressed 10-year Treasury yields and a strong dollar have tempered the bullish outlook for U.S. equities. But a shift in both suggests a V-shape recovery could be more likely.
04:4208/06/2020
Andrew Sheets: What Do Markets Reward? Progress.
Why are markets climbing despite a pandemic and this week’s demonstrations across the U.S.? The answer may lie with how markets view progress.
03:3005/06/2020
Special Episode: The Race to a Vaccine
Large cap biotech analyst Matthew Harrison talks with Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets to discuss the latest timeline for a coronavirus vaccine, hurdles to success and possible market reactions.
10:4004/06/2020
Mike Wilson: Welcome to Early Cycle?
Although market volatility continues to decrease, the volatility of popular momentum strategies is increasing—which suggests a coming rotation to early cycle stocks.
03:2301/06/2020
Andrew Sheets: Does COVID-19 Change the Investing Playbook?
Although the impact of the coronavirus on markets, economies and jobs is truly unprecedented, it doesn’t mean investing precedents don’t still apply.
03:1729/05/2020
Michael Zezas: Could Cash-Strapped States Bank on Online Gaming?
As U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, could some look to online gaming to fill budget gaps?
01:4627/05/2020
Mike Wilson: 3 Reasons Why a 2020 Recovery May Be Different
Although the coronavirus recession shares traits with the 2008 financial crisis and other recessions, the rate and sustainability of a recovery could be quite different this cycle.
03:2126/05/2020
Special Episode: All Hail the U.S. Consumer
Will pent-up demand from U.S. consumers help drive a recovery from the coronavirus recession? A special conversation with our Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Economist.
06:4722/05/2020
Andrew Sheets: The Case for the Return of Inflation
Why would inflation rise since the current recession means an acute shortage of demand for goods and services? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.
03:0421/05/2020
Michael Zezas: The Mechanics of Fiscal Stimulus
Congress is weighing another round of fiscal stimulus, possibly by July. But the dynamics of passage in an election year could mean a narrow window to take action.
02:0920/05/2020
Mike Wilson: Financial Repression Is Alive and Well
Current stock market price patterns look surprisingly similar to 2009 and the global financial crisis. The big difference for investors may be the knock-on effect of low interest rates.
04:0418/05/2020
Andrew Sheets: Are Negative Interest Rates Coming to the U.S. and UK?
As markets have begun to price expectations for negative rates in Britain and the U.S., Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets breaks down the potential impact on consumers, savers and economic growth.
03:1415/05/2020
Special Episode: Lessons and Limits of China’s Recovery
What China’s rebound from COVID-19 can—and can’t—tell us about the path, speed and pitfalls of economic reopening for other countries. Chief China Economist Robin Xing and Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets look at the data, lessons so far, and how the country has had to modify its crisis playbook.
09:5814/05/2020
Michael Zezas: COVID-19 Sparks Renewed U.S.-China Trade Tensions
Can the Phase One trade deal détente stand, or will the U.S. and China return to a cycle of escalating tariffs that may impact prospects of a rebound in economic growth? Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy, takes a closer look.
02:4013/05/2020
Mike Wilson: U is for Unicorn
Amid investor speculation about the shape of a recovery, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson urges a standard recession playbook.
03:4811/05/2020
Special Episode, Part 2: Markets Eye Climbing Government Deficits
How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the debate.
09:3808/05/2020
Special Episode: Recovering from the Stimulus
How can we best coordinate policy to support a timely recovery and what lessons can we learn from the past? Chief Global Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discuss the policy path back from the global economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
08:0207/05/2020
Michael Zezas: Fixing a Hole (in State Budgets)
The hole in U.S. state budgets caused by coronavirus-driven revenue shortfalls will likely affect more than just muni bond investors. Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas explains.
01:5106/05/2020
Mike Wilson: A Pause that Refreshes
As the rally in U.S. equities takes a break, investors may want to position for "early cycle." And that means re-thinking portfolios just as downbeat economic and earnings data arrives.
03:3804/05/2020
Andrew Sheets: The Disconnect Between Economies and Markets
Why did April’s stock market gains seem oddly disconnected from recent poor economic data? Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets has the answer.
03:3101/05/2020
Matthew Hornbach: A Change of Fortune for the U.S. Dollar?
Consensus on the dollar has been bearish for years, only to be proven wrong time after time. But Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach says the mechanics of supply and demand could change that outcome.
04:0830/04/2020
Michael Zezas: Could U.S. State Governments Go Bankrupt?
As Congress debates aid for state governments, for investors, the principal concern is that a lack of additional federal aid might further depress state spending and drag on economic growth.
02:4929/04/2020