Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Fixed Income team, breaks down the post-election market reaction, including the fade in risk rallies and why tariffs—now dubbed the “Trump Tax”—are here to stay.

Brian Svendahl, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Fixed Income team, breaks down the big news of the year: Donald Trump’s return to office. With his return, expect potential changes in U.S. tax policies, federal regulations, tariffs, and immigration – each adding pressure to inflation and impacting bond markets. Will higher inflation, increased debt issuance, and the influence of “bond vigilantes” drive rates up further? Listen to get Brian’s insights on how these developments could shape the fixed income landscape.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, steps away from election chatter to dive into the latest economic data. With a major miss on October’s payrolls, resilient Q3 GDP, and rising Core PCE, the numbers suggest a complex path ahead. Will the Fed cut rates to support a softening labor market?

Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, breaks down what fixed income investors should consider with just a week to go until the U.S. presidential election. The race is neck and neck, with battleground state polling indicating it could go either way. Our guidance? Hold steady and await the outcome.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Fixed Income team, shares his insights on how upcoming U.S. elections will likely shape the medium-term outlook for fixed income markets. With key data releases on the horizon—such as consumer sentiment, PMI, home sales, PCE, and GDP—the markets could see some movement.

Mark Shohet, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, provides insights on the ongoing dynamics in the financial markets and explains why maintaining exposure to floating rate assets in a diversified portfolio can be a prudent move given the uncertain rate environment.

Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, dives into why calls for aggressive rate cuts in the U.S. have diminished and how the strong jobs report validated our stance of a more measured approach. But it’s the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election that is of key importance to fixed income markets, and positioning matters more than ever.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses the upcoming election and the potential impact on fixed income markets.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines how the market is absorbing last week’s rate cut, what ways the US elections could influence monetary easing, and the potential impact widespread tariffs could have on inflation.

The September high yield new issue calendar has been active. Peter Keenan, Senior High Yield Trader on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses what events have influenced the timing of all these new issues, the performance of lesser-known issuers vs. well-known issuers, and why new issue activities give us an opportunity to engage with issuer management teams.

There may be a sense of déjà vu among investors as September’s soft markets mirror the start of last month, notes Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team. Although market direction remains data dependent, rate cuts are a forgone conclusion. And despite any market volatility from events like tonight’s Presidential debate, the path of rates will likely remain lower.

The time has come. With inflation under control, Jerome Powell signaled rate cuts are on the way, leading to markets rallying. The question now turns to how much and when. Eric Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines this question and the Fed’s new enemy: the labor market.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses how the high yield bond market has returned to its previous levels after the recent volatility.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines how the market recovered from an extremely volatile week and shares how we took advantage of that volatility to readjust our portfolios before markets calmed down.

Everyone. Remain. Calm. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, discusses why the market may be overreacting to the most recent labor market data in this episode of The Weekly Fix.

In today's Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses our expectations around the upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting rate cut likelihood, and shares our observances around recent market activity.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, tunes out the political noise and focuses on the future of the market in this episode of The Weekly Fix.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses what the recent inflation measures and the attack on former President Trump mean for markets.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses the current state of the markets at the half-way point of 2024, and reflects on the changes and consistencies in the market since last year.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Ajeet Atwal, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines the supply and demand factors that are driving the ongoing strength of the leveraged loan market in the U.S. Lower Credit Quality Securities. CLO portfolios and interest could be deemed by rating agencies to have substantial vulnerability to default in payment of interest and/or principal. Other securities could have the lowest quality ratings or be unrated, have been downgraded or have been placed on “credit watch” for future downgrades. Lower rated and unrated securities can have large uncertainties or major risk exposures to adverse conditions and can be considered to be speculative. Generally, such securities offer a higher return potential than higher rated securities but involve greater volatility of price and greater risk of loss of income and principal. The market values of portfolios or interests in CLOs also tend to be more sensitive to changes in market or economic conditions than other securities. The value of the leveraged loans underlying a CLO can also be affected by changes in the market’s perception of the entity issuing or guaranteeing them, or by changes in government regulations and tax policies.Leverage Risk. Leverage can result from certain transactions, borrowing and reverse repurchase agreements and derivatives. Leverage can exaggerate the effect of a change in the value of the portfolio’s securities, causing the portfolio to be more volatile than if leverage was not used. Losses incurred on leveraged investments will increase in direct proportion to the degree of leverage employed. CLO portfolios and investors also incur interest expense on borrowings used to leverage its positions. The use of leverage also can result in the forced liquidation of positions (which could otherwise have been profitable) as a result of margin or collateral calls. For CLO portfolios and investors, to the extent the Adviser can adjust leverage levels, the Adviser could increase (or decrease) leverage at times when it is not advantageous to do so and, as a result, the value of certain securities issued by the CLO could decrease.

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses why slowing inflation may lead the way to rate cuts later this year and into 2025.     Current projections are for one rate cut expected this year and four in 2025.Before rate cuts commence, incoming data needs to further validate recent easing of inflationary pressures.Looking at the fixed income universe, we continue to like the front-end of the Treasury curve.

On today’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses how each data release has been causing volatile price movements in fixed income markets. And he notes that this price movement opens opportunities to adjust portfolio strategy tactically.

In today’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, reviews the “haves” and the “have-nots” in today’s high-yield market and explains why investors should find the right balance between safe, income-generating bonds and investments in unloved areas of the market.

In this week’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional PortfolioManager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses how risk assets andrates were bolstered by the latest release of inflation data.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses how disappointing CPI data have pushed yields higher so far this year, while lack of new supply has squeezed the market.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses how different data readings over the past week moved markets, as investors seek clues to future Fed moves.

In the latest episode of The Weekly Fix, hear from Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, on why this week’s FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed on hold, and what investors can expect if the April CPI Core released mid-month lets us down again and the “higher for longer” narrative takes hold.

Corporate earnings may be in focus this week, but macro questions continue to weigh on bond markets. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, shares his insights in this episode of The Weekly Fix.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager, discusses how the reality of the data shows there is no evidence that the US economy needs lower rates any time soon.

Have prospects for strong fixed income returns this year been diminished by robust U.S economic data? Listen in as Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay Head of U.S. Fixed Income, discusses why this week’s release of CPI data will give us insight into the future decision making of the Fed.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team discusses how the strong but not too strong economic conditions have led to a positive environment for fixed income markets.Key points:Broadly speaking, the underlying technicals are very positive for corporate credit.Idiosyncratic risk in a few areas of the market have generated volatility.We experienced a higher default rate in March, but our view is that defaults will remain benign this year & trend upward next year. 

BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager Stephen Fitzsimmons discusses how investors are eagerly buying up new debt issuance.  While many investors appreciated the dovish commentary last week, not all data are cooperating.   The past months have certainly been a sustained busy period for the new issue market.Strong investor demand has helped drive credit spreads tighter.Chairman Powell was decidedly dovish at the FOMC last week… driving yields lower.The economic calendar is full this week and investors markets are bracing for the latest inflation measures.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team discusses how investors were largely disappointed with the recent CPI reading, what we’re looking for in some key economic data releases this week, and how it might affect our positioning. CPI came in hotter than market participants hoped and this drove yields higher across the US Treasury curve.The shape of the yield curve indicates that markets expect an economic slowdown, which is not our imminent base-case.Economic data in the US is doing little to show signs of slowing.We continue to expect that rate cuts will likely be later and potentially fewer than others may be pricing in.

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses why investors will have to wait for additional evidence regarding a moderating inflation trend before the Fed acts to cut rates.  Strong growth, labor markets and inflation running hot are not a combination desired by the Fed.In terms of jobs, growth remained robust, but we’ve added fewer jobs than expected.Inflation remains sticky, with February readings staying higher, following up January’s strong data.We do expect a slowdown to manifest itself and that should help inflation to moderate.

BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager Tim Leary discusses the factors that have led to higher yields this year and why we’re looking for the market to keep grinding.Key points:Spreads may be tighter, but yields are higher on the year.This may peak investor interest and we have seen high fund flows.This is likely a function of the market coming back towards the Fed’s path. 

BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager discusses what we’re looking for in some key economic data releases this week and how it might affect our positioning.  It’s a busy week on the economic calendar.Signs that the economy is doing better than expected may push rate cuts out further in the future.We’re paying special attention to the release of the Producer Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to gauge lingering inflation.

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses how investors are dealing with recent trouble spots within the US commercial real estate issues and how we’re dealing with the turbulence.  In our judgement, US commercial real estate (CRE) will be a source of negative headlines in 2024. Several banks across the globe with significant US CRE exposure have reported increased provisioning.Larger banks (>$150B in assets) have been quick to address the deterioration with collateral revaluations and establishing loss reserves where appropriate.Periods of dislocation are ripe with opportunities, however careful credit selection is of paramount importance.

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses how investors are dealing with strong macro-economic data and heavy treasury issuance.The US economy continues to turn out strong results.It remains to be seen if softer data paves the way for rate cuts later in the year.The market continues to adjust its view on the timing and extent of rate cuts.

Stephen Fitzsimmons discusses how the comments coming out of FOMC meeting this week may well provide insight into the future direction of markets.Bond issuance is on a record setting pace in January.Compelling total return opportunities exist in fixed income.Although the market was early to rally as hard as it did in the end of 2023, the directionality of the rally is the correct one.  We look to the Fed meeting this week to provide market insight.

Summary: BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager Tim Leary explains why bond markets remainhealthy following the retrenchment. Bond markets have given back the sharp gains achieved at the end of 2023.Technicals are quite strong and the market remains liquid and healthy.On the floating rate side of the coin, leveraged loan activity is robust.

In this week’s episode, hear Andrzej Skiba explain how expectations need to be reset after the rally to end 2023, but that opportunities abound.    Summary points:The sharp market rally has investors rethinking future return expectations. Significant rate cuts are priced in. When assessing market projections for early rate cuts, we see room for disappointment. On average, Investment Grade, High Yield and MBS spreads look uninspiring. We see plenty of opportunities to generate alpha in attractively-priced opportunities and dislocated idiosyncratic credit stories. 

In this week’s episode, hear Brandon Swensen recount the events that have made 2023 a very exciting year for investors.  Summary points:The year began against a backdrop of a resilient US economy but one saddled with high inflation.2023 has included volatility from monetary policy, fiscal policy, domestic politics, geopolitics, and company specific events.Markets have rallied into the end of the year, supported by dovish Fed language and the increased chances of a soft economic landing.We believe that going into 2024 there is plenty of potential for volatility to re-emerge, but our base-case is for gradually falling inflation and rate cuts. 

Summary:This will be a busy week in the market as investors lookto digest key data readings on key measures. BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager Stephen Fitzsimmons outlines thesignificance of the news and our expectations.Key points:·        Upcoming data releases will provide furtherclarity to investors.·        We’ll see information on small businessoptimism, retail sales, industrial production. News on inflation and the Fed rate decision will be particularlyinsightful.·        Wethink that the market’s enthusiasm for rate cuts next year is over-blown,leaving room for disappointment.

Summary: The BlueBay US Fixed Income team is seeing strong demand in the secondary market for new corporate bond issuance.  Investors seem enticed by the high current coupons, the strong macro-economic background and the prospect of future rate cuts, explains Stephen Fitzsimmons.Key points-High current coupons and levels of carry on high quality corporate debt are enticing to investors.  Recent positive developments on the US macroeconomic front are driving demand.  The market is also supported by the expectation of rate cuts next year, but there are risks to that projection.

Summary: Senior Portfolio Manager Tim Leary discusses how we’ve entered a quiet period for the markets as new issuance is low and there is little for companies to refinance. The key is to remain focused on the bigger picture.Key points:We’ve entered a quiet time on the market calendar.There’s little new issuance or refinancing going on.We’re focused on the bigger picture of disinflation, healthy fundamentals and strong technicals.We are happy to let elevated interest income do its job.

Stephen Fitzsimmons discusses how the market was caught flat-footed by last week’s CPI data that was below expectations and markets rallied as a result.  Inflation data was announced as having been below expectations across the board.Meanwhile, retail sales showed material signs of cooling.  Interest rates and stocks rallied hard.·        There are significant reasons why we believebullishness in fixed income is still warranted.

Senior portfolio Manager Tim Leary discusses why public investment grade and high yield is attractive once again.It’s time to give public large, liquid, publicly traded corporate bonds a closer look in this low default environment.Yields are up, inflation has retreated, and the Fed is nearly done raising rates.You haven’t missed your opportunity to profit from the current environment.

In this week’s episode, hear Andrzej Skiba describe how a few economic data points and softer language from Chair Powell helped move yields back closer to 4.5%.Concerns about over supply and peak rates have receded. We would argue that risks are balanced.While the Fed may decide to raise rates again in December, we do see evidence of a slowdown.