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Speedwell Research, LLC
Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.
Article. How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. This weeks article is How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/how-pies-proofs-and-punch-cards-hold -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Intro (0:46) –Memo Reading Starts (19:56) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
20:3029/12/2023
Article. Understanding Modularity: How Apple, Bloomberg, and Amazon Kept Strategic Coherency
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. This weeks article is Understanding Modularity: How Apple, Bloomberg, and Amazon Kept Strategic Coherency Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/understanding-modularity-how-apple -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Intro (0:49) –Memo Reading Starts (16:56) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
17:3322/12/2023
Company. Floor & Decor: The Costco of Flooring
In this podcast on Floor & Decor, Speedwell Research covers everything from its founding as a single store in Atlanta, Georgia to becoming the leading hard surface flooring specialty chain retailer. We draw on Speedwell Research’s 57 page research report to teach not just about the flooring industry and Floor & Decor’s interlocking business model, but also about competitive dynamics and how to think about store level unit economics. We hope you enjoy! (Please note that for the first few minutes of the recording, occasionally the sound quality declines. It improves thereafter.) -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (1:51) Background (4:48) CEO Tom Taylor (6:21) Industry (15:26) Floor & Decor Model (24:33) TAM Breakdown and Commercial Business (28:35) Pro Business (33:15) Competitive Landscape and Main Competition (59:10) Four Wall Store Model, Mature Margins (1:11:49) Long-Term Store Target (1:24:45) What Can Go Wrong, Risks -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase Speedwell's FND Report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/08/floor-decor-deep-dive/ Become a full Speedwell Research Member here: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Articles Mentioned Speedwell’s Memo Introducing the Piton Idea: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that Speedwell’s Memo on Home Depot’s Valuation in 1999: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/priced-to-outperform-perfection-the Floor & Decor 2022 Earnings Recap: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2022-earnings-recap Floor & Decor 2H23 Earnings Recap: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2q2023 Business Breakdowns Floor & Decor Podcast: https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/29086328/cohen-floor-decor-raising-the-floor?tab=transcript Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in FND. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in FND. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
01:28:5720/12/2023
Article. Walker & Dunlop Business History
In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our 63 page Walker & Dunlop Report. If you prefer to read instead of listening to this article, you can find access to it below. This weeks article is from the business history section of our Walker & Dunlop report. Article Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/speedwellsnippets/p/walker-and-dunlop-business-history?r=3jwcb&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Intro (2:02) –Article Reading Starts (21:55) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Purchase Walker & Dunlop Single Report: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
23:2315/12/2023
Article. The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space
In this episode of The Synopsis we introduce a new episode format called, “Articles”. As the name suggests, this episode will be a reading of a memo written by Speedwell Research. If you prefer to read instead of listening to the memos, you can find access to the article below. On this first Articles episode, we are reading our business philosophy piece introducing the concept of the Piton and the Piton Network. This weeks article is The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Intro (0:47) –Memo Reading Starts (18:30) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
19:4108/12/2023
Company. Dream Finders Homes: A Better Business Model for the Homebuilding Industry
In this episode of The Synopsis we cover capital-light homebuilder, Dream Finders Homes. We dovetail into the homebuilding industry, the macro supply/ demand environment, as well as detail Dream Finders Homes business model and how it differs from peer NVR. This podcast is informed by Speedwell Research’s new short format reports, called “Exploratory Reports”. We released the first Exploratory Report on Dream Finders Homes for free (link below). Dream Finders Homes Report Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/dream-finders-home-exploratory-report -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) - Intro, What is an Exploratory Research Piece? (2:37) - Macro Backdrop, Housing Supply/ Demand Factors (10:51) - Homebuilding as a Business (13:57) - Dream Finders Homes History and Background (19:17) - ROIC, Financial Performance, (22:36) - Capital-light Model vs Traditional (27:14) - Original Capital-light Homebuilder, NVR and how NVR differs from DFH (34:08) - Competitive Factors, How do Homebuilders Differentiate? (37:18) - Risks and Concerns (42:36) - Closing Thoughts (44:33) - Conclusion -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Piece Introducing the The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6 Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Purchase a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, no contributors to the podcast had a position in DFH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on did not have a position in DFH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
44:4427/11/2023
Company. Etsy: Building an Internet Marketplace in the Shadows of eBay and Amazon
In this episode of The Synopsis, we cover everything from Etsy’s founding history and early strategic errors to how Josh Silverman quickly reaccelerated growth and improved profitability after several years of sagging performance. We dovetail into what makes the platform unique and how Etsy has been able to succeed where both eBay and Amazon failed. We draw on Speedwell’s 79 page report to teach not just about Etsy, but also help investors learn about how great CEOs run a business. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (0:54) Founding History (3:01) Where the Name “Etsy” Comes From (6:45) Issues with Founder Robert Kalin (10:45) New CEO, The Chad Dickerson Era (14:02) Foolish Endeavors (19:48) Turning Around Etsy, Josh Silverman Appointed CEO (25:29) Identifying Where Etsy Can Improve, Initiatives to Improve the Buyer Experience (35:40) Etsy Advertising, A Fumble Recovered (41:16) How Etsy Makes Money (44:41) Covid Ecommerce Boom, 2021 Bull Market, Metric Distortions (51:09) Changing Buyer Behavior, Improving Frequency (59:21) International Opportunity (1:03:03) Capital Allocation, Acquisitions (1:12:07) ROIC (1:14:22) Competition, Take-Rates (1:26:56) Pre-Mortem -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase Speedwell's full 79 page ETSY research report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/09/28/etsy-deep-dive/ Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in ETSY. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in ETSY. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
01:31:0423/10/2023
Dialogue. The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences—The Other Side of The Consumer Value Prop
This week on The Synopsis, we introduce our Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences framework in a new episode format. The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences is a helpful idea for investors and entrepreneurs to better understand the market, their products, and competitors’ offerings. You can check out our original writing introducing the idea here. This show is the first of our “Dialogue” format, which will be episodes focused on business frameworks or other investing ideas. We will return with a Deep Dive on a specific company next time. We hope you enjoy! -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro, New Show Concept (1:37) Explaining the Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences (7:26) Product Market Fit Through a Different Lens, Where the Jobs Framework Fits In (11:34) Chipotle versus Taco Bell Example (14:38) Etsy’s Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences (16:43) Cash Flow Durability, Consumer Surplus as Churn Mitigation (21:23) Brands, See’s Candy, Fulfilling Psychological Needs (24:51) Real World Applications of the Framework, Chipotle Again, Retail Apparel Companies (29:17) More Examples, Amazon, Fine Dishware, Temu, Shein, Depop, Facebook Marketplace (32:50) Sustainability as a Potential Preference, Tesla, Patagonia, Allbirds (36:15) Summarizing Key Aspects of the Framework and When to Implement -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ Our first Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/18/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-the-other-side-of-the-consumer-value-prop/ Our second Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/02/04/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-two-ends-of-the-strategy-spectrum/ Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
40:2302/10/2023
Company. Copart: Building a Deep Moat Business from Junkyards and Wrecked Cars
In this podcast on Copart, Speedwell Research covers everything from Founder Willis Johnson’s early business career to the industry dynamics, and how Copart became the global, salvage marketplace auction leader. Investors can learn a lot from Willis Johnson’s early business intuition and movement from the lowest wrung of the salvage vehicle value chain as a liquidator to ultimately a critical service provider for insurance companies. We draw on Speedwell’s 85 page report, released in May 2023, to teach not just about Copart’s business, strategy, and formidable competitive advantages, but also to parse out cultural factors that distinguish truly great companies. We hope you enjoy! (Please note that about 1/3rd into the podcast, the sound quality periodically declines. It then improves towards the last 1/3rd of the podcast. We apologize for this and have identified the issue for future recordings.) -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (2:19) Willis Johnson Background History and Early Career (9:19) BTS Auctions: The Beginnings of Copart (14:12) Changing the Business Model to Align Incentives (17:57) How Jay Adair was Introduced to Copart (18:40) Copart’s Early Expansion (24:09) Experimenting with Internet Auctions in the 90’s (29:43) CAT Events and Copart's Ethics (38:33) Industry Overview (50:23) IAA History, IPO, Private Buyout, Merging with KAR, Spin-off, and Ritchie Bros Acquisition (1:07:26) Copart vs IAA, Competitive and Cultural Differences, Market Share (1:24:06) Financials (1:27:12) Capital Allocation, Growth Assumptions (1:30:58) ROIC and variations compared to IAA (1:34:00) International, Details on How the German Market is Different, Barriers to International Growth (1:45:27) Other Business Initiatives (1:51:22) Growth Expectations and the Reverse DCF (1:53:40) Risks, Autonomous Vehicles -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase Speedwell's full ~22,000 word CPRT report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/ Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in CPRT. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CPRT. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
01:57:2805/09/2023
Company. RH: From Near Bankruptcy to Multi-Billion Dollar Luxury Retailer
In this podcast on RH, Speedwell Research covers everything from Restoration Hardware’s beginnings as just a catalog in a personal living room to massive multi-story Galleries with restaurants that generate >$10mn. Investors can learn much from the early business failings, as well as the incredible turnaround and business transformation Gary Friedman led. We draw on Speedwell’s 86 page research report, released in March 2023, to teach you not just about RH, but also about novel customer acquisition strategies, the dangers of promotions, how to build a coherent consumer value prop, and show how changing a business’s strategy requires reworking every element of the company. Enjoy! -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (1:31) Early Founding History, Novel Customer Acquisition Strategy (5:48) First IPO in 1998 (8:23) Restoration Hardware Model Starts to Break (9:29) Gary Friedman Background and Takeover of Restoration Hardware (14:43) Initial Business Changes Friedman Makes (18:32) Second IPO in 2012, Starting to Envision a Luxury Retailer (24:27) Ascent of Luxury Mountain, The Mega Gallery Strategy (26:43) Solving a Key Business Shortcoming, The King Midas Problem, What Meituan has in Common with RH (32:26) Source Book Strategy and When Mailing a 540 Page Catalog Makes Sense (35:12) Growing Pain Period, Reworking Key Elements of the Business (45:13) RH Membership and the Problems with Promotions (52:07) What Job RH Does, The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preference (54:35) The Value Capture Index and How to Assess Retailer’s Pricing Strategies, Competition, Disadvantages of Ecommerce (1:06:03) ROIC and Margins, Reverse DCF, Revenue Build (1:14:50) RH Brand Extensions, Private Jets and Yacht, Guesthouse (1:20:45) Acquisitions, Waterworks, Apple vs LVMH Model (1:26:05) What Could the Business Look Like in 10 Years? (1:27:46) Pre-Mortem -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase Speedwell's full ~21,000 word RH report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/03/22/rh-deep-dive/ Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ Free Piece on The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6 More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in RH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in RH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
01:29:0507/08/2023
Company. Meta Platforms: From Dorm Room to Global Dominance
In this inaugural podcast, Speedwell Research goes into details on their ~170 page, January 2023 report on Meta Platforms ($META). We cover a list of questions including 1) how resilient are social networks and why did Friendster and MySpace disapear? 2) how does ad tech work and did Apple's policies permanently impair Meta? 3) what "job" does Facebook and Instagram do? 4) is the metaverse a dealbreaker for investors? 5) and much more. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (3:09) History: Six Degrees, Friendster, MySpace, and early Facebook (28:32) Jobs to Be Done: What consumer needs does Facebook serve and the degradation of the network (44:57) Meta's ability to spin up new apps, failed apps, Threads, how sticky are network effects, Tencent's QQ (59:04) Monetization formula, advertising history, and primer on the digital ad ecosystem (1:19:25) Apple Privacy Changes, ATT, IDFA, Return on Ad Spend, auction dynamics (1:38:48) Can Meta recover from their data loss? Inverting the question with the reverse DCF to see implied growth. (1:43:47) WhatsApp, IRR Math (1:47:23) Metaverse Spend, Financial Returns, Strategy (1:53:36) Year of Efficiency -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase Speedwell's full ~47,000 word Meta report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/ Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a postion in Meta. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Meta. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
01:56:4724/07/2023