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The Sound of Economics brings you insights, debates, and research-based discussions on economic policy in Europe and beyond.
The podcast is produced by Bruegel, an independent and non-doctrinal think tank based in Brussels. It seeks to contribute to European and global economic policy-making through open, fact-based, and policy-relevant research, analysis, and debate.
From support to recovery: national fiscal policy in the wake of COVID-19
Across the Atlantic, EU member states have been discussing a recovery plan since last spring, striking an agreement over the summer to create a €750 billion pandemic recovery fund. Hard-pressed EU capitals must now submit detailed plans to Brussels to unlock their share of the cash and begin rebooting their economies. One such country is Italy, where an ambitious once in a generation plan is being drawn up to spend €200 billion to relaunch an anemic economy. The hope is that by pushing through unpalatable reforms together with funds underwritten by 27 member states, that an economy that has not grown in real terms for over two decades can be jump started. Bruegel has been tracking the national recovery plans that states have been submitting to Brussels to unlock funds, and plans to release an overview soon.
Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel scholars Carlo Altomonte, Maria Demertzis and Zsolt Darvas to discuss economic stimulus and its implications.
For more details, please check our dataset on national fiscal response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus.
Bruegel will soon publish a new dataset on national recovery plans. Stay tuned!
38:1510/02/2021
The geopolitical repercussions of the European Green Deal
The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions and is likely to impact partner countries adversely. In the latest paper co-written by Bruegel and the European Council on Foreign Relations, the authors map out the geopolitical implications and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, co-authors Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel introduce their paper and give their insight on this issue.
Related content:
Leonard, M., J.Pisani-Ferry, J. Shapiro, S. Tagliapietra and G. Wolff (2021) ‘The geopolitics of the European Green Deal’, Policy Contribution 04/2021, Bruegel
Event, The geopolitics of the Green Deal
30:1403/02/2021
A rushed deal or a rush to judgement?
On 30 November 2020 after over 7 years of talks, the European Union and China concluded negotiations for a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI for short).
The agreement is intended to increase investment between the EU and China by establishing a legal framework and common rules on issues ranging from state-owned enterprises to subsidy transparency and rules against the forced transfer of technologies. The deal replaces more than two dozen bilateral investment treaties between the EU’s 27 member states and China, improving market access for European companies operating — or intending to operate — in China and ensuring a level playing field and reciprocity when they do.
Does the agreement actually live up to the above claims and seven years of expectation? To help us find out, in this episode of the Sound of Economics Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bert Hofman, the director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore and Bruegel’s China expert Alicia García-Herrero, for a in depth commentary and glance at what the detail of the deal means for Europe.
Relevant publications:
Demertzis, M. (2021) ‘An EU – China investment deal: a second look’ 19 January
García-Herrero, A. (2021) 'Europe’s disappointing investment deal with China' 4 January
36:2727/01/2021
Where did the vaccine strategy go wrong?
One year since the pandemic began, widespread vaccination has finally started. It would be a mistake however to say the end is in sight. Senior fellows Uri Dadush and J. Scott Marcus join Bruegel director Guntram Wolff to talk COVID-19 vaccine strategy, from testing and production to procurement and inoculation.
Relevant publications:
Dadush, U. (2021) ‘A matter of life and death: governments must speed up vaccination’ Bruegel Blog, 13 January
Marcus, J.S. (2021) ‘Has the European Union squandered its coronavirus vaccination opportunity?’ Bruegel Blog, 6 January
Demertzis, M. (2020) ‘Are we out of the woods yet?’ 14 December
33:1520/01/2021
Green transformation: a Polish perspective
Poland is sometimes characterised as the black sheep of EU climate policy: in 2019, more than 70 percent of the country’s electricity was generated by coal. In the meantime, it is closing down coal mines and discussing building a nuclear power plant in order to diversify its energy supplies. What is Poland’s climate policy and how is it evolving? Is the idea of Poland’s characterisation as a scapegoat of the failure of international climate ambitions misleading?
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Bruegel's Guntram Wolff and Georg Zachmann are joined by Michał Kurtyka, the Minister of Climate and Environment of Poland and former President of the COP24 in Katowice, considered by many as a climate champion in the country. They discuss current climate policy in Poland, the social impact of decarbonisation, how the EU’s recovery package can help smooth the climate transition, and the future of international climate diplomacy.
Research mentioned:
Bergamini, E. and G. Zachmann (2020) ‘Understanding the European Union’s regional potential in low-carbon technologies’, Working Paper 07/2020, Bruegel
Wolff, G. (2020) ‘Europe should promote a Climate Club after the US elections’
35:0813/01/2021
The year that tested us all
As the year draws to a close, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff to review this eventful year in economic policy and beyond. The guests also talk about a book that has marked them this year and finally, their hopes and wishes for the decade ahead.
Events mentioned:
Monetary policy after the pandemic, with Janet Yellen
Together for Europe’s recovery and for a better, more sovereign Europe, with Olaf Scholz
The green deal: Europe’s growth strategy, with Frans Timmermans
Books mentioned:
Zuboff, S. (2019) The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power, PublicAffairs, New York.
Carreyrou, J. (2018) Bad blood: Secrets and Liies in a Silicon Valley Startup, Knopf, New York.
Aral, S. (2020) The Hype Machine: How Social Media Disrupts Our Elections, Our economy, And Our Health–And How We Must Adapt ,New York Currency, New York.
Bratton, B. H. (2016) The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty ,MIT Press, Massachusetts.
44:4921/12/2020
The new EU digital regulations: Explained
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Maria Demertzis, J. Scott Marcus, Georgios Petroupolos, and Mario Mariniello, Bruegel experts on digital policy to delve into the latest EU digital regulations: the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. What is the Commission proposing? What connections do these two bills have, and what policy and market implication do they have?
01:09:0016/12/2020
The geopolitics of money
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Paola Subacchi, Professor of international economics and chair of the advisory board of the Global Policy Institute at Queen Mary University of London, and Bruegel senior scholars Alicia García-Herrero and Michael Leigh join Giuseppe Porcaro for an age old discussion but with a twist.
They try to understand the geopolitical role of money, in other words, currencies and capital flows. While unconstrained capital flows cause afflictions of the global economy, the current debate on currencies is in fact driven by politics rather than economics, as Alicia argued in an opinion piece recently: Politics, not economics, demands a strengthened international role for the euro. What would the next US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen do on the dollar?
29:5809/12/2020
The political economy of climate transition
Climate transition is hotly debated in EU circles as it impacts all areas of policy: from the ambitious climate targets set by the President of the European Commission with the European Green Deal, to the discussions of the next budget of the Union and the recovery plan from the current pandemic.
The topic is especially important for 2021 with a new US administration more likely to engage on climate change, a commitment for carbon neutrality in 40 years by China and the delayed COP26 under the leadership (or not) of the United Kingdom. Any European debate is certain to have an important impact on a regional and national level, but will also influence the global trajectory of climate policy.
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels, Piotr Arak, Director of the Polish Economic Institute from Warsaw and Simone Tagliapietra, research fellow at Bruegel (joining from Italy) for a conversation on the political economy of the climate transition as covering the European Green deal, the concept of “green industrial policy”, and distributional challenges of decarbonisation.
43:0702/12/2020
Steering the boat towards an unknown destination
The economy of the euro area is forecast to contract by 8.7% in 2020 but grow by 6.1% in 2021. The drop in GDP in 2009, the worst year of the financial crisis, was just over 5%. There is no doubt that the drop we face today is much more significant, although it is expected to be short-lived with a sharp bounce back. However, all EU countries are currently going through a second COVID-19 wave exponentially worse than the first in terms of number of infections, albeit with fewer deaths (so far). Who knows what the real hit to the economy will be, and indeed how long it will be before we can resume normality?
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis, and Nicola Viegi, Professor of Monetary Economics at the University of Pretoria, who is based in South Africa. They will explore the theme of uncertainty, highlighted by the pandemic, and how to plan policy interventions, especially monetary policy, in this climate of uncertainty.
Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez, Bruegel research analyst have recently published a paper for the European Parliament on the topic, looking at the challenges faced by the European Central Bank: ‘Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay’: https://www.bruegel.org/2020/11/monetary-policy-in-the-time-of-covid-19-or-how-uncertainty-is-here-to-stay/
31:4625/11/2020
Sizing up the world's largest trade deal
On November 15 2020, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), creating the world’s largest free-trade bloc in terms of gross domestic product.
Bruegel fellows from around the world - Uri Dadush, based in Washington DC; Alicia Garcia-Herrero based in Hong Kong and Suman Bery based in India, bring their knowledge and geopolitical expertise to a heated discussion on this deal, hosted by director Guntram Wolff. What is the RCEP really about? Who will benefit? Why did India withdraw from negotiations on the deal? What implications will it have for Europe and the United States? And more importantly, what should they do?
38:4418/11/2020
The big brother is back?
Following Biden's victory in the US presidential election, what will the transatlantic relationship look like? Would it be a big relief, or nothing much will change? And will we see a shift from ‘America first’ to ‘buy American’?
This week Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Esther de Lange MEP, Vice Chair of the European People's Party Group, to talk us through what this all means for Europe, and more importantly for its place in the world. What next for European strategic autonomy? How will this affect climate policies? How can EU level the playing field while not getting squeezed by the US and China?
With Mrs de Lange’s experience within the Delegation for relations with the People's Republic of China, we also discuss that, as the US is trying to decouple economically with China, what would be the right strategy for Europe?
31:3013/11/2020
A European common tax space
Taxation is one of the few areas of financial policy which the general public has great interest in, as it affects their everyday life directly. But when we talk about it on a European level, it has much to do with tax distortion and competition in the single market.
In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Sven Giegold MEP from the European Green Party. Giegold envisions a European common tax space, where minimum tax rates will be applied on a European level. They also discuss tax reporting regulations for large corporations, VAT reform, and how the Commission, European Financial Intelligence Unit and potentially a European financial police force can target money laundering and financial crime.
29:4103/11/2020
A tale of two presidencies
Born and bred in the United States, Bruegel scholars Rebecca Christie and J. Scott Marcus are joined by director Guntram Wolff, on a special edition of The Sound of Economics, to talk about the upcoming US election, the implications it will have for American and European Economic policies, as well as the impact on future transatlantic relations.
Rebecca and Scott will walk us through the most crucial domestic topics, from voter suppression to shrinking republican demographic, from the covid-19 pandemic to US healthcare system. On international issues, they look at the approaches the two administrations will likely take on climate, trade, data privacy, as well as financial regulations. While a Biden presidency might be the hope to reinitiate sensible discussions and restore alliance and partnerships, a Trump administration will very much likely continue its path on isolationism.
Find out more from Bruegel scholars for the upcoming US election:
The future of EU-US trade relations after the US election
What should Europe expect from American trade policy after the election?
Trump’s International Economic Legacy
33:2628/10/2020
Demography and globalisation: reversing trends
In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we invite Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan to talk about their most recent book: 'The Great Demographic Reversal’. They argue that trends in demography and globalisation, especially the stunning rise of China combining both, have greatly weakened labour bargaining power and led to subsequent disinflation, inequality and falling interest rates. But just as these demographic and globalisation trends are now reversing, labour bargaining power will rise again, bringing with it more inflation, less inequality and rising interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic will only accelerate this reversal.
Bruegel scholars Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff join the authors for a conversation on ageing societies, waning inequality, as well as an inflation revival.
33:4721/10/2020
The future of EU-UK relations (again!)
On 15-16 October the European Council will take stock of the implementation of the withdrawal agreement and review the state of the negotiations on the future EU-UK partnership. Leaders will discuss preparatory work for all scenarios after 1 January 2021. The timetable is very tight, with October seen as the last deadline for reaching an agreement that could then be ratified in time for entry into force by the end of the current transition period.
In this live recording session of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel’s scholars took a step back and provided the background, as well as outline the key issues at stake necessary to follow the discussions at the Council and understand the ongoing negotiations. We also engaged in an informed debate with the audience on the post-Brexit scenarios.
The podcast host, Giuseppe Porcaro, was joined by Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Guntram Wolff.
To read more about Bruegel's research on Brexit, please check: https://www.bruegel.org/tag/brexit/.
56:1813/10/2020
Without good governance EU recovery could fail
The European Union recovery fund could greatly increase the stability of the bloc and its monetary union. But the fund needs clearer objectives, sustainable growth criteria and close monitoring so that spending achieves its goals and is free of corruption. In finalising the fund, the EU should take the time to design a strong governance mechanism.
In this episode, Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, is joined by MEP Luis Garicano, vice president of Renew Europe, who is also an economist and was heavily involved in the discussion on Next Generation EU, the new recovery instrument that the EU proposed for the Recovery and Resilience Facility. On this topic, they discuss the key concerns on how to ensure EU-borrowed money will be well-spent by the member states. MEP Garicano shares his insights from the Parliament of where this debate currently stands.
Read the Opinion of Guntram wolff on the topic:
https://www.bruegel.org/2020/09/without-good-governance-the-eu-borrowing-mechanism-to-boost-the-recovery-could-fail/
23:5107/10/2020
The Future of Globalisation
In this episode, we propose a full lecture about the future of globalisation by Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy, at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, of Harvard University.
Rodrik argues that the model of hyper globalization we have been pursuing is unsustainable and that we have an opportunity to embark on a sounder, healthier globalisation. And he outlines his views on what such a globalisation might look like.
The Lecture took place during the Bruegel Annual Meetings and it was followed by a lively discussion between Dani Rodrik and André Sapir, who is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel, which we have recorded and included in this podcast.
01:01:2730/09/2020
Global Energy Fundamentals
As we move away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy solutions, the complexity of the global energy system has increased. With his new book published by Cambridge University Press, Global Energy Fundamentals, Simone Tagliapietra cuts through this complexity with a multidisciplinary perspective of the system, which encompasses economics, geopolitics, and basic technology.
In this episode of The Sound of Economics Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, discusses with the author the current status and future prospects of the global energy system.
33:0223/09/2020
The State of the Union going forward
On 16 September 2020 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, delivered her first State of the Union address before the European Parliament. In addition to looking back at the past year, she presented the priorities for the year ahead, focusing on initiatives such as the European Green Deal and the Digital Strategy.
A conversation between:
Giuseppe Porcaro, Head of Outreach and Governance, Bruegel
Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Fellow, Bruegel
André Sapir, Senior Fellow
Guntram B. Wolff, Director
57:3016/09/2020
For a better, more sovereign Europe
This is part of a special feature of the Sound of Economics reporting highlights from Bruegel Annual Meetings, which happened between 1 and 3 September 2020.
Usually physically gathering hundreds of people in Brussels every year, the Annual Meetings are the flagship event of Bruegel. This year, due to the pandemic, we held the event entirely online.
For this episode of the Sound of Economics we report the full speech delivered on 3 September by the Minister of Finance of Germany, Olaf Scholz, touching upon the key issues Europe is facing for its economic recovery and its own sovereignty in a complex global setting.
After the speech you will be able to follow as well a lively conversation Between the Minister, Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, and Maria Demertzis.
more information about Bruegel Annual Meetings on www.bam.bruegel.org
52:4009/09/2020
REOPENING EUROPE - Reopening Future?
This is the last episode of the summer feature of the Sound of Economics recorded as part of the Reopening Europe project.
Between the 12th and the 27th of June, we traveled over 2700 kilometres through the Netherlands, Germany, France, Austria, Slovenia and Italy to collect voices from the ground during the weeks when the borders were reopening after the COVID-19 spring lockdown.
Since the start of summer, the pandemic has continued to ravage the globe, and in Europe we are currently seeing a resurgence of infections. The next few months continue to be uncertain in terms of medical and economic consequences.
Given this context, the Reopening Europe project assumes additional layers: documenting the seemingly ephemeral moment of the summer reopenings, and reflecting about the hopes and wishes of Europeans at a unique moment.
That is why, in this concluding episode of this feature, we reflect about the future. Not as an escapist wishful thinking, but as an attempt to start re-imagining a society, an economy and politics cohabiting with the virus and eventually overcoming it.
For this reflection Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel’s senior scholar Alicia Garcia Herrero and Rutger Sjögrim, the architect that built the space ship featured in the movie Aniara (2018), and member of the Secretary studio in Stockholm.
43:4219/08/2020
REOPENING EUROPE - Reopening Common Good?
On the fourth episode of this summer series of The Sound of Economics, recorded on the road as part of the Reopening Europe project, we talk with Antje von Dewitz, CEO of the outdoor equipment company- Vaude. We met her on June 17th in Tettnang, near Lake Konstanz, on the German/Swiss border, where her family company is located.
The Reopening Europe team was the first external visitor’s group to be admitted at the company headquarters after lockdown. Antje told Giuseppe about the effect of COVID-19 on her company, on retailers and consumer behaviour, and she told us of her vision for a post-pandemic economy which should work for the common good.
44:0912/08/2020
REOPENING EUROPE - Reopening Tourism?
The OECD has estimated that COVID-19 will cause a 60% decline in international tourism in 2020. This could rise to 80% if recovery is delayed until December.
During their trip, the Reopening Europe team noticed the direct impact of the lockdown on cities such as Strasbourg or Salzburg, which were practically devoid of the usual tourist crowds.
In this latest installment of our summer series on Reopening Europe's trip across Europe at a unique moment, Giuseppe is in conversation with Ivo Tarantino, Head of Public Affairs & Media Relations at Altroconsumo, the largest independent and non-party political consumers’ organisation in Italy.
They hear contributions from-
Leone, a Gondolier in Venice;
Nives Monda, restaurant owner in the historic centre of Naples;
Emilio Casalini, journalist and writer;
Elvio De Monte, architect in Venice;
Jeannette Neumann, Bloomberg correspondent in Madrid.
33:4705/08/2020
REOPENING EUROPE - Reopening Borders?
In June 2020, as Europe reopened after lockdown, we crossed ten national borders. We listened to diverse citizens, from passers-by to politicians, business people to artists, recording, documenting, and publishing stories.
In this second episode of Reopening Europe, we unpack some reflections about borders and the pandemic which we have collected along our journey.
Giuseppe Porcaro is joined in by Martina Tazzioli, Lecturer in Politics and Technology at Goldsmith University, London. Her work is characterised by an interdisciplinary approach to political theory, migration and border studies and political geography. Recently, she has investigated the technologisation of the borders and how technologies constitute a battlefield for migrants, states and non-state actors.
They hear contributions from-
Felies Zomerplaag, a high school student in Meerssen, a few kilometres from the Belgian/Dutch Border;
Djuna Bernard, Member of the Luxembourgish Parliament;
Stephan Halbach, the CEO and owner of Klenke, a printing workshop in Dortmund, Germany;
Klemen Miklavič, mayor of Nova Gorica, on the Slovene/Italian border;
Jean Baptiste Couzin, the head of cross-border cooperation, in the Grand-est Region;
Michael Leigh, senior fellow Bruegel;
Ugo Rossi, Associate professor of Economic and Political Geography, Gran Sasso Science Institute;
Jeannette Neumann, Bloomberg correspondent, Madrid
34:4429/07/2020
REOPENING EUROPE - Reopening Governance?
This is a summer feature of the Sound of Economics in cooperation with the Reopening Europe project.
In June 2020, as Europe exited the COVID-19 Lockdown, we traveled more than 2700 kilometres through the Netherlands, Germany, France, Austria, Slovenia and Italy to collect voices from the ground as the borders were reopening.
In this introductory episode, Giuseppe Porcaro chats with Michael Leigh. Their conversation was recorded in Florence on the 23rd of June. Michael is a Bruegel Senior Fellow and also Academic Director of the Masters in European Public Policy at the John Hopkins University in Bologna.
Michael told him about his experience locally in Bologna and they discussed the impact of the pandemic on various levels of government and the future of Europe.
Giuseppe gave Michael some insight about the journey and reveals which border was the only one on the trip where the crew were asked to produce papers.
31:0323/07/2020
The benefits of the single market - the case of last enlargement
As the Brexit negotiations are entering their final straight line, the question of trade agreements is heating up. Economists talk about the “cost of non Europe”. How much each country has gained from belonging to the EU’s single market? How much would it have missed out on if it didn’t belong to the single market?
In this week’s episode, we will look at the economic impact of the EU's last enlargement and ask who benefited the most: the old 15 or the new 13 members?
26:4115/07/2020
S6: Apps without borders? How COVID-19 apps show the limits of the EU digital single market
In their toolkit against a pandemic that knows no borders, several EU countries have bet on new technology from our era of globalisation: digital contact tracing COVID-19 apps.
But the way they've been rolled out illustrate troublesome limits to the EU digital single market.
25:0709/07/2020
S6: Financial fragility after #COVID19
In this episode we discuss financial fragility in European households in the time of COVID-19.
Before the pandemic hit, a substantial share of households reported that they would be unable to handle a financial emergency. In some EU countries, many had savings equivalent to just a few weeks of basic consumption.
Giuseppe is joined by Maria Demertzis, deputy director at Bruegel, and Anna Maria Lusardi, Academic Director of the George Washington University Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center who have authored a paper published by Bruegel on the topic
What did they find out, about how households finances have been impacted by the pandemic so far?
Episode's guests:
Maria Demertzis, Deputy Director, Bruegel
Anna Maria Lusardi, Academic Director of the George Washington University Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center
Hosted by:
Giuseppe Porcaro, head of outreach and governance at Bruegel
28:5702/07/2020
S6: Redefining Europe’s role after the Covid-19 Pandemic
In a special live edition podcast of an event we organised recently with EU3D, we discuss how the current situation brought upon by the pandemic could shift the ‘Conference on the Future of Europe’ debate, whether EU treaty changes are back on on the agenda and what this would imply for the relation of the EU with its closely affiliated non-members.
Guntram Wolff is joined by Gabriele Bischoff, Member of the European Parliament, John Erik Fossum, Professor at the ARENA Centre for European Studies, University of Oslo and EU3D coordinator Kalypso Nicolaïdis.
01:05:2725/06/2020
S6: One rule to ring them all? Europe's financial markets after Brexit
The response to COVID crisis necessitates a lot of cash. So will the upcoming green transition.
But with Brexit, Europe lost its easy and practical access to the world’s largest financial market. So is today the right time to create a European capital markets union, with only one rule to ring them all; one rule to bind all 27 capital markets in the EU?
26:3219/06/2020
S6: Reopening: Europe
Since the end of May and throughout the month of June, many European Countries have lifted or loosened the lockdown measures set in place to fight the spread of the virus.
One of the last measures still in place is the closure of international borders, which to some extent brought back to the memory a closed Europe, and border checkpoints, which many of our listeners that born after 1989 probably bene experienced, at least on the scale we have had.
As this is somewhat an atypical and historical moment, we are going to embark in a peculiar journey, starting on Friday 12 June. Bruegel is supporting a project driving across 7 Countries and more that 2.500 kilometres to collect facts about how the border closure affected the economy and society, take a “temperature reading” of the perceptions of people, and make an analysis out of it.
It is an exciting endeavour that sees Bruegel on the road, after these months of lockdown and countless zoom livestreams. It will provide a snapshot of the impact on the ground also of the European policies which we are more of a commonplace in our studies and in this podcast.
You will be able to follow us on the road on the Bruegel channels, as well as the project website www.reopeningeurope.com
This episode provides a background overview of the impact of the reopening on European value chains, future of work, and innovation.
Guests
Scott Marcus, senior fellow, Bruegel
Niclas Poiters, research fellow, Bruegel
Reinhilde Veugelers, senior scholar, Bruegel
Host
Giuseppe Porcaro, head of outreach and governance, Bruegel
33:2511/06/2020
S6: Will COVID-19 boost the euro as a global currency?
The euro is, by definition an international currency. However, since being established in the late 90s the single currency has always been somewhat less than the sum of it's parts and has yet to challenge the US dollar for global dominance. Its international status declined with the euro crisis of 2008.
Could the reform of the institutional setup of the monetary union that many are arguing for in the wake of the covid-19 crisis boost the euro's status as a global currency?
Episode guests:
Guntram Wolff, Bruegel Director
Alicia Garcia Herrero, senior fellow at Bruegel
Grégory Claeys, senior fellow at Bruegel
Hosted by:
Giuseppe Porcaro, head of outreach and governance at Bruegel
25:1405/06/2020
COVID-19’s shock for emerging economies
The pandemic is hurting emerging economies in at least three ways: by locking down their populations, damaging their export earnings and deterring foreign capital. Even if the pandemic will fade in the second half of the year, gdp in developing countries, measured at purchasing-power parity, will be 6.6% smaller in 2020 than the IMF had forecast in October.
In this episode we dig into the topic and sketch the possible tools that emerging economies can use to face the liquidity crisis. The conversation presents the analysis of the authors of a Bruegel Policy Contribution the topic.
Episode's guests:
Alicia Garcia Herrero, senior fellow at Bruegel
Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute for International Finance
Hosted by:
Giuseppe Porcaro, head of outreach and governance at Bruegel
35:2929/05/2020
China’s financial system: opening up and system risk
China’s financial sector has grown massively in size and has become systemically important. In addition, it has also become much more complex with increasing systemic risk.
The cyclical -beyond the structural – deceleration that the Chinese economy is undergoing is one of the key risks that the Chinese financial system is facing. At the same time, China has decided to open up its financial sector to foreign competition. What can foreign banks expect to find? Should they grab this opportunity? Giuseppe Pocarro is joined by independent economist Gary Liu and Bruegel Senior Fellow, Alicia García-Herrero.
39:4122/05/2020
Singapore's experience in dealing with COVID-19
Faced with the COVID-19 outbreak, governments have needed to act swiftly to combat the virus. Many countries currently have lockdown or measures alike in place. Yet, different countries approach the crisis in a noticeably different way.
Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Singapore, join this live podcast recording and explain Singapore’s approach and the various measures taken in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
45:2319/05/2020
Rebooting Europe: a framework for post COVID-19 economic recovery
COVID-19 has triggered a severe recession and policymakers in European Union countries are providing generous, largely indiscriminate, support to companies. As the recession gets deeper, a more comprehensive strategy is needed. This should be based on four principles: viability of supported entities, fairness, achieving societal goals, and giving society a share in future profits. The effort should be structured around equity and recovery funds with borrowing at EU level.
In this episode we discuss the proposal for a recovery plan outlined in a recent paper by Julia Anderson, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff which can be read here https://www.bruegel.org/2020/05/rebooting-europe-a-framework-for-a-post-covid-19-economic-recovery/
Participating to this episode:
Maria Demertzis, Deputy Director, Bruegel
Giuseppe Porcaro, Head of Outreach and Governance, Bruegel
Simone Tagliapietra, Research Fellow, Bruegel
Guntram Wolff, Director, Bruegel
56:3115/05/2020
S6: China’s economy after COVID-19
The first country to be hit by the current pandemic, China has been at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19. What have been its impacts on the Chinese economy? What does it represent, more broadly, to the global economy? Are global supply chains really starting to be put into question? Today, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Alicia García-Herrero and Yiping Huang, Professor of Economics and Finance at the Peking University.
This podcast is a member of the Europod network.
01:00:2206/05/2020
S6: An analysis of the German Constitutional Court ruling on the ECB QE programme
The German Constitutional called today on the ECB to justify its bond-buying program. What does today's ruling of the German Constitutional Court mean for the ECB's QE program? Could such a decision open a precedent when it comes to contesting EU law? Today, Giuseppe Porcaro and Guntram Wolff are joined by Franz Mayer, chair of Public Law at the University of Belefield, to analyse the German Constitutional Court's ruling.
This podcast is a member of the Europod network.
50:1405/05/2020
S6: The impact of Covid-19 on emerging markets with Barry Eichengreen
Without a robust healthcare system and lack of medical equipment, emerging market economies are vulnerable to the current COVID-19 pandemic. How can developed countries help tackle the issue? Is international cooperation more needed than ever? This week, Giuseppe Porcaro and Guntram Wolff are joined by Barry Eichengreen to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on emerging markets.
47:3829/04/2020
S6: Post-Council commentary
On April 23, EU leaders met virtually to try to come to an agreement for a common European response to the COVID-19 pandemic. What were the measures taken? Will they be sufficient? Did Europe come together for a coordinated response to the crisis? Or did the meeting further highlight the cracks between member states? This week, Guntram Wolff and Giuseppe Porcaro are joined by Maria Demertzis and André Sapir to comment on the EU Council meeting.
This podcast is a member of the Europod network.
54:2424/04/2020
Exiting the great lockdown?
In this episode of The Sound of Economics Live, we discuss European coordination, national responses, and local effects in moving on the next phase of containment of the COVID-19 pandemic
Maria Demertzis, Deputy Director
Thomas Hale, Associate Professor in Global Public Policy, Blavatnik School of Government; Fellow of St Antony's College, University of Oxford
Jean Pisani-Ferry, Senior Fellow
Giuseppe Porcaro, Head of Outreach and Governance
Additional speakers to be confirmed
52:1017/04/2020
S6: Did the Eurogroup save the day?
After its longest meeting ever, the Eurogroup reached an agreement yesterday evening. What does the agreement say? What does it mean in terms of the emergency reaction to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic? What does it mean, more broadly, for the future of Europe? This week, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff to discuss whether the Eurogroup can save the day.
This podcast is a member of the Europod network.
The podcast started by the participants giving their view on the deal that was closed last night by the Eurogroup. Guntram Wolff noted that is was good to have a deal, even if it is small in his view. André Sapir also expressed reserved satisfaction for the deal. He was however not surprised, as more could only come from the heads of state and that it is part of the Eurogroup’s habits to increase firepower over time. Maria Demertzis found it is surprising that the longest ever Eurogroup meeting led to such a small result and though this was a bad signal. She did agree with her co-panellists that some agreement was better than no agreement in this case.
Jumping into the debate, the panellists were asked to reflect on what the measures meant in more detail. André Sapir started by mentioning that of the €540 billion announced, about half (€240 billion) would be provided by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), each Member State would have access to a credit line equivalent to 2% of their GDP. He added that it was clear however that not all Member States would use the ESM credit line making the €240 billion a maximum rather than the actual amount deployed. Guntram Wolff agreed with this and noted that the ESM was after all a stopgap in case borrowing from the markets became less accessible for a certain country. He added that the ESM package also reflected a movement towards a larger role for fiscal policy in the Euro Zone which was positive. In addition, he noted that it was still the ECB, which through its interventions, is keeping the yields of countries like Italy down and allows them to implement ambitious economic support packages. On the same line, Maria Demertzis agreed and stated that while countries like the Netherlands and Germany do not need ESM credit lines, even countries such as Italy or Span might not use them, as they do not which to be subjected to the conditionality that is attached to it.
Afterwards, the panel went on to discuss the other measures that were part of the package agreed upon by the Eurogroup. Maria Demertzis expressed her satisfaction about the common unemployment insurance, temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE), which putting aside its relatively small size, is a step in the right direction. Indeed, it provides an automatic stabilizer and could set a good precedent. André Sapir expressed more reservation about whether SURE would one day become a permanent tool, given that its temporary nature is clear in the text. Guntram Wolff agreed that SURE was a good tool as it operates through credit guarantees and through the Commission’s budget. This means that money could be better directed at countries that need it the most.
The panellists followingly discussed issues related to the Italian economy and whether this would lead to debt sustainability issues. Guntram Wolff mentioned that the economic downturn in Italy is likely to be huge, not so much because it was badly affected by the pandemic, but because tourism represents a large share of its economy. He did not think, however, that Italian debt would become unsustainable, at least not as long as yields remained low thanks to the ECB. He therefore argued that Italy should have a large economic support programme. Maria Demertzis was less convinced that Italy did not run any debt sustainability risks due to the current crisis. She noted that while yields mattered, the stock of debt and economic growth were also key determinants of debt sustainability. While the ECB would have to roll over Italian debt indefinitely and probably further expand its Italian debt holdings, low growth could still lead to a bad equilibrium. She called for a deeper reflection into options to monetize debt in order to keep it sustainable. Guntram Wolff agreed and added that the real limits were political and legal in this discussion.
The panellists were asked to conclude with some final thoughts. André Sapir noted that it was important to keep in mind the needs of non-Euro Zone EU Member States, even if they appeared less affect by the pandemic for the moment. Maria focused on a quote from the final text of the agreement that she was positive about: “a response commensurate with the size of crisis”. She explained that it was reflective of the new awareness of the Eurogroup about the urgency of the situation. Guntram Wolff concluded with two final remarks. First, that one should not only look at the size of the Eurogroup’s package but rather at the size of fiscal support at a national level. Second, although the idea of a federal Europe seems desirable it remains distant, but it is in the interest of all Eurozone countries to help struggling neighbours and this should be reflected by the politics as well.
53:1210/04/2020
S6: Mythbusters: debunking economic myths
Economics seems to be full of myths that are hard to debunk. Will robots take our jobs? Are trade deficits bad? Is China such a big economy simply because of the size of its population? This week, Nicholas Barrett, Maria Demertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jímenez and Niclas Poitiers put on the detective cap and become Bruegel's own economic mythbusters.
Disclaimer: this podcast was recorded on the 3rd of March 2020, before the COVID-19 lockdown was put in place in Europe and the US. Hence, some parts of it are no longer applicable.
This podcast is a member of the Europod network.
27:3303/04/2020
S6: The macroeconomic policy response to the COVID-19 crisis
From the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to "coronabonds", the EU seems to be struggling to find an appropriate mechanism to tackle the economic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic. What is really the best option? And how do we ensure that, once the pandemic is over, we return to sustainable debt levels and competitive economies? This week, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Lucrezia Reichlin, professor of Economics at the London Business School, Grégory Claeys and Guntram Wolff to discuss the macroeconomic policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.
This podcast is a member of the EuroPod network.
50:4131/03/2020
S6: Banks and loan losses in the pandemic turmoil
The current pandemic is shaking the financial system. How can banks react ? Is a consolidation of the financial system in Europe needed in order to respond to this crisis ? Will our economies suffer from this pandemic as much as they did in 2008 ? This week, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined live by Guntram Wolff and Nicolas Véron to discuss banks and loan losses in the pandemic turmoil.
This podcast is a member of the EuroPod network.
54:3625/03/2020
S6: How can the EU prevent our economies from shutting down?
From flights cancelled and restaurants closed to companies either slowing or stopping their production, COVID-19 is shutting our economies down. How can the EU reboot them? What should be our fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic? Will our economic system ever be the same once everything is over? This week, Guntram Wolff is joined by Jean Pisani-Ferry and Maria Demertzis to discuss the EU's response to the coronavirus.
This podcast is a member of the EuroPod network.
Disclaimer: due to the current circumstances, this episode was recorded remotely. Therefore, the sound quality isn't the same as in our previous episodes.
32:0318/03/2020
S6: Where are the women in economics?
The field of economics, like many others, seems to be biased towards men. How are women disadvantaged? Makfire Alija and Katja Knezevic join Nicholas Barrett and Niclas Poitiers to discuss the systematic hurdles.
31:4608/03/2020
S6: Coronavirus: the economic prognosis
The coronavirus is going to hit the global economy hard, but how hard? What can policymakers plan for the months ahead? Nicholas Barrett asks Guntram Wolff and Maria Demertzis about economic symptoms and treatments
27:0006/03/2020
S6: The European Green Deal rules
When it comes to global carbon emission is a tax the best form of defence? To make the European Green Deal work, the EU is considering a levy on carbon-intensive goods manufactured beyond its borders. But will a carbon border tax spawn a massive bureaucracy and lead to accusations of protectionism? To find out, Nicholas Barrett talked to Georg Zachmann and Ben McWilliams from Bruegel and Gabriel Felbermayr, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy
22:0005/03/2020