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Victor Menasce
Welcome to The Real Estate Espresso Podcast, your morning shot of what's new in the world of real estate investing. Join investor, syndicator, developer, and author Victor J. Menasce as he shares his daily real estate investment outlook. Our weekday episodes deliver 5 minutes of high-energy, high-impact content to fuel your success. Plus, don't miss our weekend editions featuring exclusive interviews with renowned guests such as Robert Kiyosaki, Robert Helms, Peter Schiff, and more.
East Coast Investing with Gabriel Lajeunesse
Gabriel Lajeunesse is a wealth advisor with UBS and is based in Burlington Vermont. On today's show we are talking about investing in the current market conditions. To connect with Gabriel, you can find him on LinkedIn and on Twitter.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gclajeunesse/
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
14:2115/10/2023
Accounting with Cherry Chan
On today's show, our guest is a full fledged CPA who specializes in Tax and real estate investors
To connect with Cherry, visit realestatetaxtips.ca
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Host" Victor Menasce
11:3714/10/2023
Selling Your Design To Decision Makers
On today’s show we are talking about the marketing of new development projects to city officials. It’s difficult to know what is the best way to communicate with bureaucrats and politicians who have a say in determining whether your proposed project is going to be approved or not.
Cities have well defined templates for submission and they try as much as possible to make all applications look the same by sharing the same format.
When you talk to city officials, they will often offer guidance on what is required to get a project approved.
Zoning codes define things like the building envelope, the height, the setbacks from the property line, parking ratios, density, and so on. But the politicians who ultimately approve the project are going to answer to the local residents who will be forever angry that a politician approved an ugly building.
But what constitutes and ugly building?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1813/10/2023
AMA - Inflating Away The Debt
Today's question comes from John who writes:
"You have answered a question for me in the past and is was well received for me.
Next question is I have heard a few different people say that back in the 80s, the debt was inflated away. I only know how to pay down debt. I don’t understand how debt can become inflated away? "
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:3012/10/2023
AMA - Outdoor Storage
This question comes from Sam who writes:
I have 7 acres near a major boat ramp North of Houston that I am looking to develop.
The area has grown 4.11% per year for the last 2 years according to the Census. With a major development up the road I expect this trend to continue. I am having trouble finding info on income growth do you have any input on where to find this data?
Do you have a Development Pro-Forma that I could look at? I don't know what I don't know and would love to learn for your experience/mistakes. The land does not have many trees, ground is relatively flat and the lot will be crushed concrete.
-Are Contractor Garages a good option to add to a storage facility/what is the typical square footage per capita needed?
-With Shipping Containers are you able to refinance the property once it's almost full or is it best to sell and buy something with Real Property?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1311/10/2023
Fannie Mae Offers 5% Downpayments on Multi Family Properties
On today’s show we are talking about a new program being offered by Fannie Mae that theoretically should make real estate more accessible than ever.
Starting the weekend after November 18, 2023, Fannie Mae will allow 5% down payments for owner-occupied 2-, 3-, and 4-unit homes.
We don’t know exactly what the underwriting rules will be. The announcement was buried deep in the Desktop Underwriter and Desktop Originator Release Notes dated October 4. The version 11.1 release of the software will be rolled out on November 18. This software is used by loan originators who work with Fannie Mae to determine whether a borrower will qualify for a Fannie Mae Loan.
As real estate investors in the commercial space, we are familiar with underwriting requirements. In particular, a property must generate enough income to more than cover the debt. The Fannie Mae announcement makes no mention of a debt coverage constraint. They typically use the debt to income ratio as a proxy for affordability.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:3310/10/2023
Why The US Needs Inflation
On today’s show, we’re talking about why the United States needs inflation. In order to understand us we need to go back to the. Following World War II.
From 1945 until 1951 US government Debt went went from 110% of GDP to 50% of GDP. How did they do it? In 1945 US government debt as at an all time high as a result of the second world war. All wars are inflationary and WW2 was no exception.
There was a massive liquidation of government debt. Real interest rates went to -13%. Inflation was running hot after WW2 peaking at 19% in 1947, but Fed rates were kept low around 2% from the period of 1945 until 1951. After Pearl Harbor the Fed capped the rate at 2.5 from 1943 until 1951. This was a wartime decision. The Fed was not allowed to operate independently during those years.
It is was trick issue. You can fool the world once. Those who bought those 30 year bonds were virtually wiped out by the time 1980 rolled around. The government made every single interest payment, but the debt got inflated away.
Fast forward to 2023. The treasury needs to roll 5T in debt next year, plus whatever they issue in new debt. It’s unclear who will buy all of that paper. The US cannot afford its own debt.
The only way this is solved is with negative real interest rates
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Host: Victor Menasce
05:5309/10/2023
Atlanta MultiFamily Apartments with Daniel Angel
Daniel Angel is based in Atlanta where he invests in multi-family apartments. On today's show we are talking about the state of the market and navigating the headwinds that we are all experiencing. To connect with David and to learn more, visit apexinvesting.us.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
10:0008/10/2023
Affordable Housing with Peter Neill and Ron Lockhart
Peter Neill and Ron Lockhart are based in Philadelphia where they redevelop blighted properties into affordable housing in Philly, Baltimore and New Jersey. On today's show we talking about how their investment model is extremely resilient even in today's high interest rate environment. To connect and to learn more, visit gsprei.com
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
16:4107/10/2023
Danger - Be Careful Out There
On today’s show we are exploring the limits that could trigger the next major breakage in the economy. I believe that the conditions are consistent with those that led up to the black Monday stock market crash in 1987. I remember that day very well. I was in my fifth year running my family’s investment portfolio and I was in my early 20’s. What’s different then is that the US had a debt about 30% of GDP and an annual deficit running about 2% of GDP. Today, the US has a debt of 130% of GDP and a deficit of about 8% of GDP.
There are stark differences, and some similarities.
I believe that the first dominos fell earlier this year in March. But it didn’t create a huge domino effect cascading throughout the system. Part of the reason for that is that the US had stopped issuing new treasuries. If you remember, the US had exhausted its debt ceiling and was spending down the balance of the Treasury General Account.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:0106/10/2023
Ranch Land For Sale
More farmland is now hitting the market as a large percentage of America’s farmland is owned by people aged 75 or older. Forbes Magazine recently published an article about this phenomenon. We have experienced this first hand. Last year, our team acquired the last remaining piece of the Norris Ranch. At one time, the Norris Ranch was more than 20,000 acres called T Cross Ranch. On today's show we are digging deeper into this growing opportunity.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1505/10/2023
Market Sentiment Surveys
On today’s show we are going to look at some soft data. A few days ago we explored the difference between hard data and soft data when it comes to economic indicators. Hard data includes things like the unemployment rate, the CPI, GDP, GDI and so on.
Soft data consists of market sentiment information. On today’s show we are looking at the market data produced by research firm Pulsenomics. The company was in the headlines yesterday with an announcement of a Partnership between Pulsenomics and Fannie Mae to Produce Home Price Expectations Survey
The company has been conducting home surveys for years. They publish the widely read U.S. Housing Confidence Survey every quarter.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:4004/10/2023
Keeping Your Contractor In Line
On today’s show we are talking about the elements of negotiating a construction contract, specifically using the industry standard AIA contract forms.
I’ve heard a number of people insist on using the industry standard AIA contracts. These industry standard contracts are supposed to be a fair contract that is not one-sided favouring neither the owner nor the general contractor.
I compare the AIA contract to the standard real estate board purchase and sale agreement template. Nobody would ever use the standard real estate board contracts without alteration. They are, after all, just a blank template.
The benefit and the problem with these templates is that they are very easy to customize. Unless you are familiar with the contract in detail, it’s going to take a lot of work to close down all of the potential landmines that exist in these standard contracts.
It starts with having a clear understanding of what your goals are as a property owner.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:1003/10/2023
Economic Distinctions
On today show, we are going to look at two different words that are used to describe macro economic factors, and in each case we’re going to look at an important distinction in the nature of these anomic indicators. We’re going to start by looking at economic data generally. Economic data breaks down into two major categories. There is what is called soft data and hard data. hard data consist of the consumer price index, gross domestic product, gross, domestic income, the producer, price index, the unemployment rate, and labor, force, participation, there’s a long list of data, that is compiled and reported by the Bureau of Labour Statistics in United States, Statistics Canada in Canada, and Eurostat in Europe.
These numbers tend to be lagging indicator’s.
In addition to the hard data, there is a rich array of soft data about the economy. These are things like indices of consumer confidence the purchasing manager index. These numerous measures communicate the sentiment of consumers and business owners about how they feel in the current market conditions in addition to their outlook for the coming months. These are, however, just opinions. They are surveys. Opinions are influenced by factual information to be sure. but opinions are also influenced by other factors. The second reason why consumer confidence might provide useful early information is if consumers’ responses to the survey questions provide good forecasts of future economic activity. This would occur if consumer confidence has a causal influence on economic activity, but this influence takes several months before it is fully realized.
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Host: Victor Menasce
05:2102/10/2023
BOM - Buy Back Your Time by Dan Martell
On the first day of each month we review the book of the month. Our book this month is "Buy Back Your Time" by Dan Martell. In the book, he offers a refreshing perspective on time management and productivity, focusing not just on doing more but on reclaiming our most valuable asset – time itself.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1301/10/2023
Multi Family Lessons with Chris Balzaretti
Chris Balzaretti is based in NY and invests both in NY and Texas. On today's show we are talking about the lessons from Texas investments made during the past few years. To connect with Chris and to learn more, you can email [email protected]
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
17:4230/09/2023
The Commodity Super Cycle
On today’s show we are talking about the commodities super cycle. We often hear those words, but what do they actually mean? What does this mean for real estate investors?
I’ve witnessed the shocking price increase of copper wire. Six gauge wire is used in high load applications like stoves and clothes dryers, AC units, hot tubs and EV chargers. I’m seeing that wire pricing at over $5 per linear foot. That’s much higher than I ever remember. As we transition to using more electricity and away from gas based appliances, the demand for copper is going up.
But the biggest issue is that the mines needed to produce these minerals take years to bring online. There is the entire regulatory process to get a mine approved which takes years. Then you need to make the capital investment and then develop the mine into a producing going concern.
The cost structure that was in place the day the mine was conceived will always be dramatically different from the cost structure when the mine actually hits production. For example, the cost of a lithium mine in Canada is now forecast to be 38% higher than estimated just 18 months ago. Lithium is the key ingredient in Li=ion batteries which make up the majority of high performance batteries. It’s possible that new battery technologies will reduce our dependence on Lithium in favour of cheaper minerals like Sodium. But for now, we’re stuck with Lithium and copper. We don’t have a replacement for copper.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
04:5729/09/2023
The Wage Price Spiral
The United Auto Workers didn’t get the memo. Jerome Powell wants to stamp out any possibility of a wage price spiral.
The auto industry is in the middle of an escalating strike as the United Auto Workers are fighting for a catch up on the concessions delivered when all of the major US auto makers were on the verge of bankruptcy in the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis.
But the United Auto workers are demanding a 40% increase in wages over a three year period. The question is, do you think that workers all across North America are looking to the resolution of the strike with the Detroit auto makers? I don’t believe that the workers will get a 40% increase in their contract. I expect they will come closer to 25%. But even that is going to fuel a demand for higher pay across all of manufacturing.
There is no question that wages have not kept pace with inflation. That means reduced purchasing power at the cash register for employees in nearly all sectors of the economy.
What does this all mean?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:2728/09/2023
Is Insurance Changing Design Choices?
On today show we’re taking a look at how insurance is affecting choices in design.
Why are some insurers are exiting geographic areas entirely. What does this mean for owners of real estate in those locations? Insurance is both optional and essential depending on your circumstances. If you were ultra wealthy, then you can self in sure. However, For the rest of us and for anyone who borrows funds from a bank insurance is not optional. So what happens if you reside in California and your insurer decides to exclude California from its product offerings? What do you do if you reside in Florida and now your insurance company has removed Florida from its list of offerings? Does that mean the risk of living in Florida is simply too high? Should everybody just leave? Why don’t we empty out the state of California. The risk of wildfires is simply too high for people to live there, not to mention the risk of earthquakes. There is considerable precedent for governments to step in and provide insurance solutions. When private businesses decide that insurance is no longer profitable. There are simply some risks for which there is no insurance at all. For example, you will not find an insurance policy that will cover you for the risk of a landslide anywhere in the United States, that is simply not an insurable risk. If you happen to live in California, and other parts of the country that have experienced landslides.
There are very few insurance companies offering flood insurance. When you buy flood insurance in the US, this policy is typically underwritten by the Federal Government and administered through your insurance broker.
Would you spend extra in construction if you knew it would reduce your insurance cost?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:0427/09/2023
Rising 10 Year US Treasury Yields
Real estate investors generally don’t care about short-term interest rates. The short term rates affect the cost of capital for bridge financing where those loans are indexed to the secure overnight funds rate. Short term debt can be replaced with permanent financing. I really painful increase in borrowing costs is tied to long-term interest rates.
We have experienced an inverted yield curve for much of the past two years.
This past week, yields on the 10 year Treasury hit 4.5%, a 16 year high. When you read the mainstream media, it’s as if the pricing for the 10 year Treasury is linked to inflation expectations and to some forecast of the Fed’s higher for longer narrative.
The question is why have the yields on US government debt increased in particular over the last 60 days? The United States has issued $1 trillion of new debt over the last three months. They have literally flooded the market. When you flood the market with any commodity, prices will fall which means yields will rise.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:4626/09/2023
The Ant And The Grasshopper
Aesops Fables are classics credited to Aesop, a slave in ancient Greece. The stories date back to a time between 620 and 540 BCE with each story containing a life lesson.
We are starting today’s episode with a fable called "The Ant and the Grasshopper.”
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1925/09/2023
Macro Economics With Josh Lessard
Josh Lessard is the research engine behind George Gammon and the Rebel Capitalist Show. On today's show we are talking about Josh's journey to becoming a central figure in the Rebel Capitalist team when he was just emerging from high school. To learn more from Josh, check out the Rebel Capitalist show on Youtube.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
13:2524/09/2023
Asset Protection with Scott Smith
Scott Smith is based in Austin Texas where his law practice specializes in asset protection and insurance litigation. On today's show we are talking about structures to protect assets and create resilience from the many threats to your wealth. To connect and to learn more, visit royallegalsolutions.com
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
14:5423/09/2023
AMA - Who Are Your Mentors?
Robert asks - “Most successful people have mentors. Who are your mentors?”
This is such a great question. In fact I’m struck by the fact that in five and a half years producing a daily show, this topic has not come up before now.
I’ve had a number of mentors over the years. They date back to my days when I was in the tech industry.
I believe it is so important to have people to learn from in your life. Overwhelmingly, the people I look to for guidance are much older, and I have a few who are younger. For example, I have a mentor who is 21 years of age. More on that later.
Before I answer who my mentors are, I think it’s important to define what we mean by a mentor. Mentors are those who provide you guidance
06:1922/09/2023
What The Fed Didn't Say
On today’s show we are examining the latest Federal Reserve announcement and trying to make sense out of it for real estate investors.
We’re looking at what was said, the underlying assumptions, and what the likely decision points will be.
When asked if a soft landing was now a baseline expectation, Powell said “No, No” he wouldn't go that far. At this point he was off script. A soft landing is his hope, but not his base case. So he was clearly acknowledging that a soft landing is unlikely.
So here is my interpretation of what was said in totality. There are clear contradictions. The economic forecast says soft landing, and Powell was clear that he doesn’t believe the soft landing as the most likely outcome. He used the word “carefully” on numerous occasions to describe the Fed’s stance. He said that word more than I’ve heard him use it before. To me, that signals a recognition that conditions could change that would warrant a change in policy.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1921/09/2023
The Evolution of Working From Home
On today’s show we are looking at a new report on The Evolution of Work from Home published by three authors: Jose Maria Barrero, from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Nicholas Bloom University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Hoover Institution & Steven J. Davis from Stanford University
This 29 page paper has been in circulation since July as a working paper and was finally published yesterday by the Bureau of Economic Research.
This piece of research shows us how work from home has changed not just since the pandemic, but over a longer time period. Working from home has been rising in the United States for many decades, driven by the continuing improvements in technology that enables remote working.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:4420/09/2023
New Development in Spokane
On today's show we are talking about a new development project in Spokane. We believe it's important to design products that are differentiated in the market. We will be hosting a webinar on September 19 and would invite you to attend. To register for the webinar, click on the link below. If you can't attend at the specific time, we will send you a recording of the webinar.
https://event.webinarjam.com/register/11/8y93rf9
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
03:1619/09/2023
Tofu Dregs
On today’s show we are talking about buildings that are built so fast that they cannot possibly be structurally sound.
Guess what? They’re not.
These buildings have been called Tofu Dreg buildings.
It’s not unusual in China to see 30 story buildings being erected in a fraction of the time we see in North America. Sometimes in only a couple of months. That’s incredibly fast. These buildings are clearly visible during construction. There is a concrete slab being poured on top of a grid of concrete columns. Many of them don’t have proper shear walls.
Observing virtually anything in China is very impressive. They throw armies of people at solving virtually any problem. I’ve witnessed this first hand on visits to China. Many of the projects are built by very low paid migrant workers.
The problem with using this approach in construction is that these buildings are structurally unsound. Concrete requires time to cure and harden. Concrete buildings have forces to contend with apart from just gravity. The lateral loads on a building due to the wind can cause them to collapse like a house of cards.
The number of high rise building failures in China is alarming. We are talking about buildings that are less than 20 years old. These buildings should not be failing, not even after 50 or 100 years.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:2218/09/2023
New Development with Kent Ritter
Kent Ritter is based in Indianapolis where he has built a portfolio of multifamily apartments. His firm Hudson investing is undertaking its first development project in a suburb or Indianapolis and on today's show we are talking about the transition to new development and some of the nuances of making that shift. You can connect with Kent at kentritter.com
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
14:2217/09/2023
Industrial Investing with Ben Fraser
Ben Fraser is based in Kansas City and is involved in multiple asset classes. On today's show we're talking about industrial and understanding some of the nuances of that segment. To connect with Ben and to learn more, visit aspenfunds.us
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
12:3816/09/2023
The Banking Secret Is Out
On today’s show we are looking at a headline article in the WSJ.
The topic is banking. Think about it. Every bank’s risk management department would have stress tested the existing loan portfolio. They would have looked at the maturity dates of each loan, and forecast what would happen to those loans if they were refinanced at today’s rates.
We have not seen a massive wave of defaults yet. Yes, a few hotels have fallen over, and a bunch of corporate debt has caused bankruptcies. Trucking company “Yellow” is a great example of a company that fell into a debt trap. The SF Hilton is another.
By and large the banks are still showing strong balance sheets. But the signs are clear that they are not writing new loans. They want to write new loans. That’s how banks make money. They just can’t.
That’s why Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase was quoted as saying “All loans are bad”. This is not an issue of a few mid-sized banks. This is every single bank. We had more than a decade of low interest rates being “normalized”. Doubling and in some cases tripling the cost of capital in less than a year is inflicting massive pain across the entire debt based economy.
The Wall Street Journal article totally misses the essence of problem. The article is shrouded in sanitized language.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:2015/09/2023
Small Condos Are Not Selling
On today’s show, we are talking about some of the dynamics that are showing up in the small investor segment of the real estate market. We are starting to see anecdotal boots on the ground evidence of properties being offered for sale that in my opinion are experiencing negative cash flow. In many major cities a small but significant percentage of condominiums, between 20-25% of new construction condos are owned by smaller individual investors who in turn put these properties into the rental market. Overwhelmingly these smaller condo units are investor owned. You often see the smaller lower cost units in condo buildings being purchased by investors, typically in preconstruction, prior to the building even breaking ground. In my home city these smaller units were really designed to maximize the revenue per square foot. These are small units! Many are between 400SF-500SF. These studio apartments are often very difficult to furnish.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:2414/09/2023
Exempt Securities Primer
On today's show we are going to talk about the world of exempt market securities. But before we do, then let me make it clear. I am not a lawyer, nor am I a securities lawyer. The purpose of today’s show is not to provide legal advice, but merely to arm you with perhaps enough knowledge to ask questions of your legal advisory team.
The reason we are even covering this today is because I get frequent questions from both newer and seasoned investors on the various types of securities offerings, and why one might be different than another.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:5113/09/2023
Secular Versus Cyclical
On today’s show we are talking about the difference between two types of inflation. Economists have terminology for inflation that is used to describe the nature of the inflation.
The first is cyclical inflation. This type of inflation is caused by a short term economic disruption, for example a supply shock. Once that supply shortage is resolved, prices tend to normalize and the inflation essentially disappears. Some economists use the term transitory to describe a cyclical inflation.
The second type of inflation is called secular. This is a deeper and more systemic type of inflation that tends to persist because it is being driven by multiple factors including the so-called wage price spiral.
Once you have secular inflation, it is much more difficult to eliminate from the economy.
It appears as though we have a cyclical inflation happening right now. The supply shock that occurred during the pandemic has subsided. Inventories are bloated and prices are falling as suppliers compete more aggressively for customer’s business.
Secular inflation is when inflation expectations become anchored. The factors influencing inflation become systemic and entrenched.
On today’s show I’m going to make a case that even though we are in a disinflationary period, and parts of the world are experiencing deflation, the disinflation we are experiencing is a result of a cyclical downturn against the backdrop of a longer secular cycle.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:5912/09/2023
Is This A Healthy Housing Market?
On today's show we’re taking a look at the big picture of the housing market in both the United States and Canada and asking the simple question. Is this a healthy housing market? If so, then why and if not, why not?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:1911/09/2023
Ross Hamilton
Ross Hamilton is the founder of Connected Investor, which was sold to First American Title a little over a year ago. On today's show we are talking about some of the technology innovations that are coming to the world of real estate transactions. To connect with Ross, you can email him directly at [email protected]. His charity is savinghomes.org which is doing amazing work to help people out of distress situations.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
17:3010/09/2023
Distressed Notes with Scott Carson
Scott Carson is based in Austin Texas where he specializes in purchasing and repairing distressed loans from banks and commercial lenders. Scott is a real experr in the field and he shares some insights as to what is happening in the market today. To learn more or to connect with Scott, visit weclosenotes.com or talkwithscottcarson.com.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
12:4609/09/2023
The Tail Wagging The Dog
With tax deadlines coming up and only a few months remaining in the year, we are getting a lot of tax related questions at our development company Y Street Capital. These questions are often coming from prospective investors who are looking at our investment offerings.
As always, we don’t offer tax advice. Most importantly, we advise our investors to never let the tax tail wag the investment dog. What that means is that we believe investors should make investments in sound investments first and foremost. If there is a tax benefit on top of the sound investment, then that’s the icing on the cake. But if the focus is entirely on the tax, then the investor runs the risk of putting icing on a mud pie. We don’t want that.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:0208/09/2023
AMA - Is Canada's Real Estate Heading For Trouble?
Today's question comes from David who writes:
Thank you for all the education you provide daily! It’s clear and concise and relevant and much appreciated.
In talking with a Canadian associate this weekend I was informed that Canada doesn’t offer 30 year fixed financing like in the States. I never knew this!
In talking with another Canadian today we were discussing that in his lifetime there hasn’t been such a quick and continuous rise of interest rates. This appears to be new territory for Canada.
With the housing stats discussed, time on market increasing, and quantity of houses on the market decreasing, this is confusing. I understand why time on market would be increasing but can’t get my head around why quantity of housing on market is decreasing.
Wouldn’t folks with a mortgage rate that is potentially resetting in the near future be in a position of having to get rid of these mortgages whose monthly payment is about to reset significantly higher?
Seems like a big onslaught of distressed property is headed down the pike in Canada.
What other factors do you see at play here that help to make sense of what appears to be conflicting numbers of time on market vs. quantity of houses on market.
05:4007/09/2023
Thinking Two Moves Ahead
On today’s show, we are putting some of the global financial risks on your radar that is not getting any air play in the news. If you have been a listener to this podcast for a while, it should be clear that we are in the throes of a global economic downturn. However, the manifestation of that is not identical on every single continent. There are three different predominant themes in the economy in North America, Europe, and Asia.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:2506/09/2023
AMA - Build To Rent
This question comes from Ravi who writes:
I have been a long time listener of your prodcast. In fact I won a signed book a few years ago. I have a lot of respect for you and was hoping to get your opinion regarding the build to rent investment thesis. I have considered investing through a company called Southern Impression homes. I was not sure if you had any experience with them. They build single family, duplexes, and quads in the Florida area and also manage them. The concept seems compelling and appears that private equity companies are now involved. Perhaps, my question may have broad interest for your listeners. Once again thank you all of your great work.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:1804/09/2023
AMA - Enforcing Developer Commitments
Today is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything)
Jay writes:
I recently bought a lot in a subdivision. Where do I find out what the developer has agreed to do exactly for the infrastructure? I already discovered a public access walk path that is graveled and the plot said it’s supposed to be paved. Where can I go to get details of what is supposed to have been done to the infrastructure including promised amenities?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:3404/09/2023
Student Loan Distress with Angie Stauffer
Angie Stauffer is based in Gilbert Arizona where she is a senior executive with YRefy. The company helps student loan borrowers in distress with loan modifications. These loans cannot be forgiven through personal bankruptcy. By lowering the interest rate and extending the amortization period, the company gives the borrower a realistic and affordable plan for repayment of the loan. To learn more, visit investyrefy.com or reach out to Angie at [email protected]
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
08:2403/09/2023
Robby Butler
Robby Butler recently joined our real estate development team. On today's show you're going to get a chance to meet him for the first time. You can reach him directly at [email protected]
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
11:3702/09/2023
BOM - Building an Elite Organization by Don Wenner
In his book "Building an Elite Organization", Don Wenner, the CEO of DLP Real Estate Capital, documents some of the principles that he has used to grow his company and has earned the honor of being on the Inc 5000 fastest growing company list for 8 years consecutively. Many of the ideas in the book are echo’s from other works. Jim Collins, the author of Good to Great is quoted frequently throughout the book. I met the author at an institutional investment conference. His company is well along the path of growth that our own organization shares. For that reason, I felt that it makes sense to learn from those who have paved the road before you. The folks at DLP also use ideas from the book “Traction” by Gino Wickman. We have reviewed that book on this show in the past. We too use the systems from Traction in our company. I consumed the book almost like a practical users’ guide to these other books that I have previously read and implemented in our business. What I learned from this book is that our implementation of these systems has flaws. I already knew that our implementation had flaws, but I didn’t necessarily know what the flaws were.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:2501/09/2023
AMA - Cost Seg Study
Today is another AMA episide (Ask Me Anything). Michael writes:
"Hey Victor, I have been investing in multifamily properties for over a decade, mostly in smaller deals but a few in the $1M to $2M range. I've been encouraged to do cost seg studies many times over the years and cannot get the math to pencil out. As an actuary by trade, I have a high degree of confidence in my analysis, but am wondering if I'm missing something or if this works in some cases. Have you had any deals where completing a study made sense? If so, can you explain why it made sense?"
05:3931/08/2023
AMA - How Are Guests Selected For The Podcast?
Today's question comes from Robert who askes:
What is your criteria for selecting guests who appear on the weekend edition? How do you vet podcast guests for your show?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
06:0530/08/2023
Under Cloudy Skies
On today’s show we are talking about what is happening in the economy. There is a narrative of bumpy landing, to a soft landing, and now more recently, no landing. It seems as if the market is convinced that the US economy is strong and is going to emerge from this deceleration into recovery. The stock market is booming which quite frankly is delusional optimism.
We have seen a rapid increase in long term interest rates
for both the 10 year and the 30 year US Treasury. The question is “Why”?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
05:2129/08/2023
AMA - Loan Denial From Regional Bank
Today's question comes from Tracy who writes:
I am a developer/builder in Eastern Washington State. I have been
in talks for months with a regional bank for a new apartment building. We have satisfied all the preliminary requirements to be pre-approved. Recently, we went for final loan approval for the project and the bank came back with the determination that they did not have the liquidity to fund the 7.5M loan and they could not find another bank that was willing to participate in the deal.
I am not completely surprised by this given the information you have imparted in your hugely informational podcast. However, I have several commercial loans with this bank, and it made me start thinking that I should probably check the health of the bank so I could determine if there is additional risk to my portfolio.
So, my question is: What information should I gather and how do I gather it, to determine the stability of a bank?
A secondary question is if a bank fails what happens to those that have debt with that bank? Everyone talks about the deposits, but how does a
bank failure affect those who have loans in place with the failing bank?
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
04:5128/08/2023
Urban Townhouses with Scott Choppin
Scott Choppin is based in Southern California. His company specializes in purpose built urban townhouses for rent. On today's show we are talking about the challenges and merits of building in California.
He publishes a weekly article on Substack called "The Real Signal". You can also connect with Scott on Twitter @ScottChoppin.
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Host: Victor Menasce
email: [email protected]
10:3127/08/2023