On today's show we're talking about the dangerous updraft of rising market conditions. ----------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are looking at the auto industry for any clues that might predict future impact in the housing market. Whenever interest rates rise, we often see the impact in auto repossession six to eight months before we see foreclosures in the housing market. Foreclosures are a judicial process in most jurisdictions which involves a much longer process than an auto repossession. When researching this episode, I learned some pretty shocking statistics about the auto industry. --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today's show we are taking a look at what's happening to energy prices in Europe. We are very insulated in North America from the energy shock in Europe.  ------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Scott Saunders has been working on 1031 capital gains tax sheltering and is extremely active in influencing the legislative process. To connect with Scott or to learn more, visit 1031exchange.com host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Paul Moore is the head of Wellings Capital where the company has launched its sixth diversified fund. To learn more, visit wellingscapital.com/resources where you can download white papers covering the different asset classes covered by the Wellings Capital funds.  ---------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are taking a look at what is happening in global foreign exchange markets. It’s no secret that the US dollar has been very strong. This naturally has an impact on countries that have needs for foreign reserves. The strength of the US dollar makes the cost of imports denominated in US dollars more expensive. It makes exports denominated in US dollars more profitable for local manufacturers. A few weeks ago we reported on the problems in the European central bank and in the EU in general with sovereign debt starting to suffer a crisis of confidence. Central banks all over the world are known to intervene and inject liquidity when needed to solve problems for their domestic banks when they run short of reserves, and in some cases foreign reserves. But when central banks do intervene, like the Federal Reserve has been known to do, it sets off alarms through the global financial markets. Interventions are an indication of the central bank attempting to fix a problem that has already happened. They’re not being proactive, only reactive. Those transactions appear on the central bank’s balance sheet for all the world to see. There is an increasing trend among central banks to perform these interventions in a clandestine manner so as not to cause panic in the financial markets. That means performing the transactions off balance sheet. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Our book this month is "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. This is not a new book. It was first written in 1949 and has been on Warren Buffet's recommended reading list for much of the past decade. ------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are talking about how conditions are normalizing in the world of construction. After two years of absolute insanity in the world of construction, lead times and inventory seems to be much more sane. One of the contractors I spoke with today recently priced the wood framing for an apartment project at $20 per square foot on a turnkey basis. That’s inclusive of labor and materials. Earlier this summer, similar quotes were coming in at nearly double that amount or about $40 per square foot. Only a few weeks ago I was quoted 14 weeks for glass patio doors. Yesterday I was quoted 5-6 weeks lead time. I can tell you that we are approaching construction projects with a renewed sense of confidence. We are still shopping around for bargains. This is necessary at any point in the economic cycle. But it’s particularly important in today’s environment which has not fully normalized. But in all cases you need to make sure you are ordering products that meet your local building code. For example, some areas don’t allow the framelsss glass railings for balconies. Some products sold online for installation in the electrical system don’t meeting all of the specifications for the local electrical code. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are talking about the ways a city can block your project from coming to reality. Some people believe that once you have the correct zoning for your property, that’s all you need to submit your drawings to the building department for a building permit. It turns out there are several other conditions that need to be met in addition to the basic zoning. Parking ratios Traffic load Utilities load for water, sewer, electric, gas and internet School capacity Fire code and access You might have enough land to build your proposed building, and you might meet the zoning for your building. Of course you need to meet all the constraints for that particular building in terms of density, height, setbacks from the property line at the front yard, rear yard and side yards. But there is so much more. We see so many projects being held up by cities much to the frustration of property owners. This is where a comprehensive understanding of the complete set of engineering constraints is so important. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are talking about the impact of the macroeconomics environment on the world real estate investing so much of what is happening in the economy is being dominated by the macro economic environment. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Trevor Oldham is the owner of podcastingyou.com, a podcast booking service where aspiring guests can get exposure by being booked on podcasts. Trevor brings the experience of being a show host, a show producer, and a show editor. The breadth of experience in all these roles makes for a good agent, knowing how to provide value to both the guests and the show hosts. To connect and to learn more, visit podcastingyou.com/realestateespresso ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today's show we're taking a case study out of George's law school course on negotiation from when he was teaching at NYU. It's a case where he was negotiating on behalf of his client Sol Goldman with Bill Zeckendorf a well known and highly respected name in New York real estate. ------------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today and every day this week we are looking at some aspect of food security and the major shifts that are putting enormous strain on our global food supply. We are already experiencing acute shortages all over the world. On Monday’s show we talked about how dietary preferences have increased the demand for grain on a global basis as more and more people shift from plant based diets to consuming more animal protein. On Tuesday’s show we talk about how more and more farm land is being diverted from food production to growing for bio-fuels like Ethanol and biodiesel. On Wednesday’s show we talked about how energy markets are effecting the supply of fertilizer and how fertilizer use is down 5% so far this year which is expected to have an immediate 2% decrease in food yields. On Thursday’s show we talked about at what happens when there are food shortages. We start to see the rise of food nationalism. On today’s show we are looking what happens when you shift your food production from using synthetic fertilizer to organic. We are looking specifically at Sri Lanka and the major impact it had on their national economy. Don’t get me wrong. I love the idea of organic farming. I personally buy organically grown fruits and vegetables whenever I can. The shift started in Spring of 2021 when Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa put a ban on agrochemicals. His goal was an ambitious one: to transform Sri Lanka into the first nation with 100-percent organic agriculture. Less than a year later, the country is left in an economic and supply shortage crisis as a result. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce

Today and every day this week we are looking at some aspect of food security and the major shifts that are putting enormous strain on our global food supply. We are already experiencing acute shortages all over the world. If you like Chicken, then don’t try to order it in a restaurant in Singapore. If you like Dijon mustard, don’t try to order it in France. On Monday’s show we talked about how dietary preferences have increased the demand for grain on a global basis as more and more people shift from plant based diets to consuming more animal protein. On Tuesday’s show we talk about how more and more farm land is being diverted from food production to growing for bio-fuels like Ethanol and biodiesel. On Wednesday’s show we talked about how energy markets are effecting the supply of fertilizer and how fertilizer use is down 5% so far this year which is expected to have an immediate 2% decrease in food yields. On today’s show we are looking at what happens when there are food shortages. We start to see the rise of food nationalism. The last time we saw food nationalism on a large scale was in the 1970’s. It’s a phenomenon that has historical precedence. Today we already have about 20% of the world’s food supply under some kind of export restriction. There are numerous examples. Some countries produce far more than they need domestically to serve their population. Other countries have very little in the way of domestic production of certain foods and rely almost entirely on imports for their daily food. A case in point is Malaysia which has halted its chicken exports in an effort to safeguard its domestic supply, which leaves people in Singapore struggling to find chicken as authorities suggest the public opt for frozen poultry alternatives. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today and every day this week we are looking at some aspect of food security and the major shifts that are putting enormous strain on our global food supply. We are already experiencing acute shortages all over the world. If you like Chicken, then don’t try to order it in a restaurant in Singapore. If you like Dijon mustard, don’t try to order it in France. On Monday’s show we talked about how dietary preferences have increased the demand for grain on a global basis as more and more people shift from plant based diets to consuming more animal protein. On Tuesday’s show we talk about how more and more farm land is being diverted from food production to growing for bio-fuels like Ethanol and biodiesel. On today’s show we talked about how energy markets are affecting the supply of fertilizer and how fertilizer use is down 5% so far this year which is expected to have an immediate 2% decrease in global food yields. That decrease in yield is in addition to the other factors that are already putting pressure on food supply. So we have not one, not two, but three factors negatively affecting our food supply. As we will learn on Thursday’s show, there’s more. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today and every day this week we are looking at some aspect of food security and the major shifts that are putting enormous strain on our global food supply. We are already experiencing acute shortages all over the world. If you like Chicken, then don’t try to order it in a restaurant in Singapore. If you like Dijon mustard, don’t try to order it in France. On Monday’s show we talked about how dietary preferences have increased the demand for grain on a global basis as more and more people shift from plant based diets to consuming more animal protein. Over the past 30 years, the carbon neutral movement has been pushing the oil industry to an increasing proportion of bio fuels. Every year, US farmers plant around 140,000 square miles of corn, 30% of which is used to produce ethanol. Between 1978 and 2018, the ethanol industry received a variety of subsidies totaling $86 billion dollars, more than both the solar and wind industry combined. Despite all this government support, ethanol is often a money losing proposition for farmers. It is also one of the least efficient ways to generate energy. If you covered an acre of land with solar panels instead of growing corn, you would win by a landslide. An acre of Solar panels produce 70 times more energy than an acre of ethanol from corn. But solar panels don’t need to occupy prime agricultural land. You can put solar panels in the desert where lettuce and tomatoes and wheat doesn’t grow. Sadly we’ve created a situation where we have taken prime agricultural land and donated it to the oil industry instead of using it to grow food.

On today’s show and every day this week we are talking about food. You might be wondering what food and real estate have to do with each other. Hopefully by the end of the week, I’ll connect the dots for you in what is an extremely important topic. Successful investing, just like in team sports requires a strong offence. But equally important and far less exciting is a strong defence. That conservative defensive posture requires an understanding of the risks. We are hearing about how the war in the Ukraine is leading to food shortages all over the world. But I’m here to tell you that the seeds of food shortages have been building long before the war in the Ukraine. In fact, the conditions have been building for many years. On today’s show and all of this week we are going to look at different aspects of why we have food shortages. If you go back to the 1980’s, our global population has been growing at about 1.5% per year. Our demand for agricultural grains has also been growing at about 1.5% per year roughly in line with global population growth. But since 2000, the global demand for grain has been growing at about 2.5% per year, faster than the population is growing. So the question is why? Are we all just eating more? Are we all just going to get fat? It turns out that in poor countries where per capita GDP is around $500 per year, the population largely subsists on a starch based diet consisting of rice and wheat based foods. But in the most developed countries, we find that diet is largely based on animal protein. When all of a sudden, instead of $500 per capita GDP, you're up at $2,000 per capita GDP and then a $5,000 per capita GDP, you begin to actually want to consume a lot more animal protein. There are only a few countries that have managed to break above the $2,000 per capita GDP. The good news is that we have made dramatic steps to erase poverty in a number of countries. Raising animal protein requires much more resources than growing plant based food. Cows for example consume 70% of the intake by foraging on grass that would not be suitable for human consumption. The remainder consists of grains. It takes 2.5 times the weight in grain to raise a single amount of meat. So as people in developing countries change their dietary preference to consuming more meat, the demand for grain is rising faster than the population. -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Jonathan Cattani got his start as a stock broker in Salt Lake City. That lead to eventually reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad and pivoting into the world of real estate investing. On today's show we're talking about how to talk to investors in today's environment given all of the uncertainty that has been injected into the environment since the end of the first quarter. To connect with Jonathan, visit investwithcattani.com ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Jorge Newbery is based in Chicago Illinois where he runs a series of businesses connected with distressed loans. You can connect with Jorge and learn more about their platform at prereo.com ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about what’s happening in the RV industry. We’ve seen white hot demand for RVs over the past two years. The requirement to social distance and limit contact to those in your immediate household during the pandemic made camping vacations an ideal choice for many families. The industry has struggled to keep pace with demand during the pandemic. The combination of material shortages and labor shortages has left many manufacturers unable to keep up with demand. Some customers were left waiting for more than a year to take delivery of their new RV. So why are we talking about RV’s on a real estate podcast? If you buy an RV, chances are you’re going to need a place to store it. It won’t fit in your driveway, and even if it did, then your home owners association or your local bylaw probably has a restriction on keeping large vehicles in your driveway. If you’re in the storage business, then boat and RV storage is probably a component of your business. -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today show we were talking about whether we are about to experience another repeat of the 2010 and 2012 sovereign debt crisis having a ripple effect through global financial markets. There are clues of an impending crisis when you listen to the words of Christine Lagarde head of the European central bank. This next crisis will also precipitate a change in foreign exchange markets. When countries experience a crisis of confidence, the release valve is the value of the currency in international markets. Some currencies are free floating. Some currencies are pegged to specific assets. Still others are pegged to other currencies. For example, we have 66 countries pegging their currencies to the US dollar. There are 25 countries pegged to the Euro. This is designed to stabilize exchange rates between trading partners. We have some very powerful lessons in the 2008 financial crisis. But we are doomed to repeat those lessons if we don’t actually pay attention to what those lessons have to teach us and look at the root causes of what precipitated the financial crisis back in 2008. Many people think that you thousand and eight was only about subprime mortgages. But there had to have been much more to 2008 than just subprime mortgages. Why were banks in Ireland failing? Europe is a funny collection of individual countries each being held together for a common monetary and economic system. But each of these countries are not created equal. It makes sense if you look through out history that bonds issued by one country are not necessarily of the same credit quality as the bonds issued in another country. We often hear about the north south divide in Europe. Italian credit is not of the same quality as German credit. Yet somehow we see that a very large percentage of the collateral being used in the repo market at the European central bank is comprised of Italian sovereign debt. In recent months this has peaked at 45% of all repo transactions. Christine Lagarde recently went on record stating that she has anti-fragmentation tools at her disposal and she intends to use them. At the same time the head of Germany’s going to spank, the German central bank has publicly stated that he is not on board with the use of the anti-fragmentation tools. -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about conservation easements. These are a poorly understood and rarely used asset type. My friend Tom Wheelwright is fond of saying that the tax code should be viewed as a series of incentives. The portion of that tax code that extracts money from business, employees and the population at large can be described in a very small number of pages. The thousands of other pages enshrined in the legislation can be thought of as a series of incentives. Conservation easements are one such incentive. The idea is that governments like to see land protected in its natural form. This can sometimes be done through zoning. But zoning is not perpetual, and zoning can be changed. If you truly want to preserve land for ecological purposes in perpetuity, then you need a land use mechanism that is even stronger than zoning. Enter the conservation easement. With a conservation easement, land is donated in perpetuity to conservation through a land trust. --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today show we are looking at whether the most recent economic figures are an indication of a trend, or a false flag? We are going to be looking at the inflation metrics and looking at the constituent elements to determine whether inflation has peaked. Will the Fed succeed in breaking the back of inflation or is inflation systemic at this point? Finally we are going to look at Europe and ask whether we are experiencing a global phenomenon and can the USA separate itself from the rest of the world in this regard? The latest inflation numbers suggest that inflation in the US cooled from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July according to the latest statistics from the commerce department. There are two variables that the government will be able to influence. The first is energy prices. The second is cooling the real estate market which accounts for a 40% weighting of the consumer price index. It’s been said that you can print money, but you can’t print food and you can’t print oil. Or can you? ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today is a part 2 response to last Friday’s AMA episode. Last Friday Joseph from Boulder Colorado asked a question about systems and software for his company that almost accidentally got into the excavation business. For a complete context, you may want to listen to that episode first before listening to this one. I was thinking some more about your question related to how you got into the excavation business. This episode is a bonus. It’s not answering your question at all, but is the result of thinking about how a simple business like excavation could become a sought after service, rather than just a low value subcontract. Joseph, if you want to be in the excavation business, I would recommend that you consider having a differentiated offering. There is a concept in business called intentional congruence. Intentional congruence means offering products and services that are clearly distinct, but actually go together. It’s like cereal and milk, hamburgers and buns, popcorn and butter. People who do excavation are merely digging holes. Digging holes is a commodity. Commodities are interchangeable and the winning bid always goes to the lowest bidder. That’s the preverbal race to the bottom. You calculate the machine time and multiply by the hourly rate. But you want your offering to be differentiated in the market. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Mark Pattison is based in San Diego where he is engaged in development projects and a growing portfolio of multi-family apartments. On today's show we're talking about opportunity zones that can be a diamond in the rough.  Mark also hosts a podcast called the "Mark Pattison Show" which can be found on Youtube. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Brett is based in Sacramento California where he helps investors nationwide with tax deferral strategies using the Deferred Sales Trust. To connect with Brett or to learn more, visit capitalgainstaxsolutions.com ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Joseph in Boulder Colorado writes: Thank you for all you do.  Your podcast is a real treat and we get so much from it. At the beginning of the year, I wrote you an AMA about how to best serve our community, as an investor, after the devastating fires near Boulder Colorado. The advice you gave in that podcast really spark my efforts towards helping the most amount of people and becoming a solution for the bigger problem.  Instead of worrying about the market and rents etc.  I decided to go out and create a private fire cleanup company using excavation equipment my partner and I had. From this, we helped clean over 65 home lots and made a direct impact on getting our neighborhood back on its feet. Now that the fire cleanup efforts are over, this company, created basically from thin air is in a unique position to transition into digging and building foundations for the residential builders in the area. Out of this sad event we are experiencing massive growth and booking several foundations already.  My question is as we are growing our organizational capacity is being strained, what kinds of software do you as a developer use to keep it all together? Particularly, around CRM, Project Management, Vendor and Supply Management, and Scheduling. Our current systems are clunky and often leave us wanting more integration and streamlining. Thanks again for your advice and how much you put out for the real estate investment community. ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are talking about the most recent employment report that was published on Friday of last week. You’ve no doubt heard the saying that you can use statistics selectively to make just about any argument. On today’s show we are going to take a more wholistic view of the US employment report and hopefully construct a more complete view of what we think is happening. Is the government lying? No, I don’t think so. But the conclusions being drawn are definitely the result of spin being put on the numbers. In the July report it was reported that the economy added 528,000 job and 372,000 jobs in June. These are impressive numbers. The White House proudly claimed that all of the job losses from the pandemic had been officially erased from history. The unemployment rate was down to 3.5% and the economy is strong. It turns out that the Bureau of Labor and Statistics actually publishes two different employment survey reports at the same time and they have significantly different methodologies and therefore different results. --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about one of the patterns that has emerged with new home buyers. The typical scenario with a new home or condo purchase involves signing a purchase agreement, several months, sometimes a year in advance of the actual delivery date of the finished product. There are a number of real estate closings scheduled for August and September this year when the actual agreement was made in the fall of last year. In some cases, the agreement was signed over a year ago. So fast forward to today. Interest rates have increased. Appraisers are taking a much more conservative approach on the valuation under direction of the lenders. When they got to the closing and many buyers did not have a rate lock on their financing. They also didn’t have a bank appraisal to accompany the loan request at the time of purchase. While the borrower may have qualified with the bank when they signed the deal, they didn’t have a commitment letter from the lender with which to close the deal. ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about the new Inflation Reduction Act just passed by the US Senate and sent to the Congress for a vote. Anytime a piece of legislation comprising nearly $1/2T of new spending is tabled, I think it is worth spending at least five minutes on a podcast to analyze it. The first thing you notice when you read the 755 page document, is that it has almost nothing to do with inflation. In fact, out of the 755 pages, the word inflation only appears 35 times in the entire document. ------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today's show we're talking about the steps and implications of China's rise to commercial dominance and the possibility of international transactions being subject to Chinese central government oversight. -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Kim is one of the principals at Iron Peak Properties where they specialize in multi-tenant industrial buildings. This is a narrow segment of the industrial space and one that offers strong resilience against economic cycles. To connect with  Kim and to learn more visist ironpeakproperties.com.  ---------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Dave Dubeau is a real estate investor who also owns a boutique digital marketing agency. He has two different podcasts aimed at two different audiences. He uses a podcast to maintain a conversation with his clients and prospective clients.  His latest podcast is focused on training aspiring capital raisers in real estate how to raise funds. To connect with Dave visit raisecapital101show.com. -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about who will want to sell in today’s environment. There are a lot of mixed signals happening in the market. There are those who are acting as if nothing has changed in the last 120 days. On the other hand, there are those who absolutely know something has changed. We have entered into a completely different set of market conditions in the past 90 days. Interest rates have gone up and the cost of debt service has increased by nearly 40% in a very short time period. I’m going to propose a thesis that is going to continue to keep inventories low in the coming year. ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today’s question comes from Cody who asks: I've assembled several adjacent acres consisting of multiple property types in a prime area. What's your experience in this? Is it better to develop the land complete and sell lots / pads or sell the assembled package to a developer? I have more land banking experience than land developing experience, but how hard can it be and is it worth it? This is a great question. I’m going to answer your question with a series of questions. It’s the answer to those questions that will ultimately help answer your question. -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about a different form of counter party risk. When we speak about counter party risk, we are usually having a discussion about the balance sheet. One person’s asset is another person’s liability. The quality of the asset is strictly linked to the ability to service the liability. But there is a second form of counter party risk that is not often talked about in the same terms. This form of counter party risk applies to the income statement. One person’s income is another person’s expense. If one party can’t afford to pay the expenses, then then the second party’s income is at risk. This leads to the question of which assets have the greatest income risk in this stagflation environment. On today’s show I’m going out on a limb to talk about three different asset types that I believe are most at risk in the current market conditions. -------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today's show we're talking about the mixed signals we're getting from energy markets. The narrative in the mainstream media concerning energy is outright misleading. It's a political narrative that is disconnected from the facts and the true supply / demand situation in the market. Since the economy is tied to energy, you need to pay very close attention to energy markets. 

In their book, William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict its future. Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras—or "turnings"—that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today's show George Ross and I are talking about negotiating in today's turbulent environment. He brings a perspective that few others have after many decades in real estate and having lived through numerous market cycles.  --------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today's show is a live talk on how to prepare for the upcoming downturn.  --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about the mental game of handling sticker shock. It doesn’t matter how often I remind myself that a high quote from a subcontractor is nothing more than a high quote. I still experience an emotional reaction. It takes some time to work through all of the second guessing that happens when you experience sticker shock. Am I out of touch? Is my budget at risk? Did I make a budgeting mistake? All of those self doubts are normal. Dealing with the uncertainty can be stressful and anxiety provoking. Do I work through the budgeting problem, or share it as a risk with the project stakeholders? Through the process of value engineering, you will discover the true cost of the most efficient solution. These high quotes happen with alarming regularity. I’m not talking about the quote that is 5-10% higher than expected. I’m talking quotes that are 70%-100% higher than expected. ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

I listened to Jerome Powell’s entire remarks yesterday after the end of the two FOMC meetings which ended on Wednesday. Chairman Powell said some things in his press conference that were astounding. But the most stunning statement from Jerome Powell was the flat statement the he does not believe the US is in a recession. The official GDP numbers for the second quarter will be released today. We don’t know what those number will be. But J Powell also went on to say that GDP numbers are complex and they take a long time to get right because the US economy is so huge. They have a history of being revised a lot, and therefore we should take the initial numbers announced today with a grain of salt. To help us all make sense out of this complexity, the White House put out a new blog post a week ago. The timing was excellent. It was entitled: “How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession?” Let's look deeper at what they're trying to say. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

The Wall Street Journal published an article this week in collaboration with realtor.com where they ranked 300 communities across the United States based on a set of criteria. The purpose of the ranking is somehow tied to their prediction of those communities offering the best rate of return on investment using a set of criteria that they applied to their methodology. The Wall Street Journal is widely read, and I have no doubt that this piece is going to be widely referenced by other reporter and perhaps your own investors as well. On today’s show we’re going to take a deep look at this report so that you are able to answer questions about the report. To identify the top emerging housing markets, The Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com reviewed data for the 300 most populous core-based statistical areas, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau. The overall methodology explores two main areas: real-estate markets (50%) and economic health (50%). Those two areas comprise eight key indicators and the Wall Street Journal applied a weighting to each of the 8 indicators to come up with a metric and therefore a ranking. We're looking at whether this ranking makes any sense.  ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about factors that could signal global instability and a crisis of confidence in our financial system. What happens if the Fed was to loosen monetary policy before actually beating inflation? This is a realistic scenario that many investors have been predicting. The hope of many investors, those who are addicted to the loose monetary policy of the last decade, is that we return to the way things were. Asset bubbles feel good on the way up, and they feel terrible on the way down. The past decade has represented a market distortion that has been promoted by central banks in Europe, the US, Canada, Japan. The list goes on and on. If the central bankers decide to pivot and lower interest rates, the likelihood is that investors in the bond market will not accept to lower interest rates. You see interest rates are based on one principal factor and that is risk. When the market yields on Turkish sovereign debt are higher than, say, German sovereign debt, it’s a reflection of the higher risk associated with Turkish government debt than German debt. When the yield on Netflix bonds are higher than the yield for IBM bonds it’s a reflection that the market perceives higher risk with Netflix than IBM. The bond market ultimately determines the yields in the market. If the Fed was to slow down their rate of interest rate increases before actually beating inflation, the bond market is likely to respond with a loss of confidence in the Fed. ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about emotional investing. We are emotional creatures who often make emotional decisions. The old adage is to buy low and sell high. But left to our own emotional devices unchecked, humans are inclined to buy high and sell low. Humans are motivated by both fear and greed when it comes to investing. These two emotions are naturally designed to protect us in the wild. But these two emotions are rather ineffective in protecting us against what happens in the market. If you look at the statistics of what is actually happening in the market, the majority of investors buy high and sell low. It doesn’t matter what the asset. It takes discipline to be counter cyclical. --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today’s show is not what I was expecting to publish today. I’m here in the heart of Rome Italy. I’m one block from piazza del Popolo with its ancient Egyptian obelisk at the center of public square. It’s two blocks from Villa Borghese the gardens that were transformed by Cardinal Borghese in 1605 from a vineyard into a 200 acre park. The Spanish steps lead up to the entrance of the park. I came to visit my aunt of 97 years of age whose health was failing. She didn’t have a specific life threatening ailment. But she was simply getting old and the body’s systems were not working like they used to. The last family members to see my aunt were myself and her granddaughter. Nobody else got to see her in her final days. We grabbed a few slices of take-out pizza on Friday and ate in her formal dining room while she slept. That formal dining room was host to so many dinner parties over the years. Family dinners around the holidays, Friday night dinners with friends, dinners with some of Rome’s most notable people. Those slices of pizza seemed insignificant at the time. In the scheme of things, those slices of pizza are still insignificant. Any significance to be attached to them are purely a story that I’m fabricating on my own. Those slices of pizza will hold a special place in my memory forever, or for however long I have left on this planet. I’m walking around her apartment. I sat down at the keys of her Steinway Grand Piano which she loved to play. I made a video recording of the last time she played the piano about six months ago. Even then, I had no idea of the significance of that recording. Today will only happen once. So make sure to take the time and do what’s most important. Take care of your health, hug your loved ones and tell them how important that are to you. ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Garrett Moore is the founder and CEO of Agorus in San Diego where they have developed new technology to focus on new home design integration and new home construction automation. Today's show addresses the obstacles and the opportunities to improving the efficiency of the home construction process. To connect with Garrett and to learn more visit agorus.com -------------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are talking about managing projects. In particular, there is a disease in project management which I call one week itis. This is where a project is delayed by one week every week. Today’s show is a cautionary tale in which I’m going to describe a project management failure that happened in our company. Now we did correct it, but not nearly fast enough for my liking. I’m sharing this failure so that you can learn from our mistake and hopefully you don’t repeat the same mistake. It happens that in some cases a project manager takes a high initiative role in managing a project. That’s often what you want as long as they are doing a good job of communicating what is happening in the project. But we had a situation recently when the project manager was in fact using that posture to protect their ego. In truth, we don’t fully know why they were acting this way. Here is the story. --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]