Another day, another couple trillion dollars in QE. Fed doing everything they can to prevent market forces from raising interest rates to a market clearing level. Sometimes stocks trade on peoples’ emotions and we’re seeing a lot of that now. Today marked the seventh consecutive day that the dow has moved by 1000 points. Markets surge on Trump’s promise of helicopter money and bailouts. Dollar rallies sharply on what may be a technical head-fake. Gold likely finding it’s bottom and set to go higher. Donald Trump is.a Socialist now and he’s trying to buy the election by bribing the electorate. Elizabeth Warren has some conditions. And while this podcast was being recorded, another bailout was announced!   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Fed finally did what I’ve been saying they would for years: cut rates to zero with the biggest point cut in history. Powell afraid to call it QE. There are no atheists in foxholes; there are no free-market capitalists in a recession. If we fought WWII with bailouts, like the way we’re fighting coronavirus, we’d be speaking German now. Waiting in line for food and toilet paper does not mean business is booming. Neither is having full hospitals. More records broken today as the Dow lost almost 3,000 points - the biggest single day point drop in history! Percentage-wise, it was the second biggest drop percentage in history, next to the stock market crash of 1987. For all the years of the Great Depression and WWII, the economy never saw a drop like this. The stock market has never lost this much value this quickly. The whole rest of the world is now tapping into their savings, but we have nothing left to rely on other than a printing press. Gold takes a hit as investors cover their losses, but still down only 2% on the year compared to the Dow down 32%. Gold is liquid, easy to sell, yet its barely down, even though so many people are desperate enough to sell it. Trump “pleasantly surprised” Powell followed his orders after having his job threatened. Oh, and banks no longer need reserves.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Dow up almost 2,000 points today; a record point gain, 10th biggest percentage gain, with most larger gains occurring during the bear market of the 1930s. We had a lot of stock market firsts this week and it was one of choppiest weeks on record. Trump announces beginning of national bailout including open-ended moratorium on student interest loans, allowing debtors put their loans into deferment indefinitely and never pay them again. Trump leaves door open to bailout any industry in the country. Lawsuits driving many shutdowns across the country. Gold’s recent late day buys a sign of illiquid investors trying to get in at lows.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Market reacted poorly to Trump’s Wednesday night coronavirus address. Today’s historic drop was the biggest since the 1987 crash. Fed’s cure will be worse than coronavirus and fatal for US economy. QE5 coming with more cheap money and artificially low interest rates. CNBC says this is nothing like 2008, but everything about it is like 2008. Jim Cramer proposes the US government suspend collecting taxes, increase all spending — and print all the money needed to pay for it. Short term noise and illiquidity affecting gold stock. Nothing is a safe-haven on a daily basis. Bond vigilantes are waking up and the bond market is starting to blow up. Bitcoin and crypto market crash. CNBC remains silent. The whole bitcoin narrative is blowing up.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Longest bull market in US history is officially over and it’s the fastest we’ve ever gone from record highs to a bear market. The same financial anchors who said not to worry about the banks in 2008 are saying the same thing now. Dollar gained on yesterday’s strength, but still in a downtrend. Gold prices acting very similar to 2008. Biden can’t lost and Trump can’t win. Kudlow saying the same nonsense he was saying as a cheerleader of the President’s economy, except now he’s actually a player in it. Inflation, even the way the government measures it, is breaking out of its slumber. Companies more afraid than ever of legal consequences.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Markets, bitcoin, and the dollar had a Reversal Tuesday fueled by Trump’s promise of massive artificial fiscal stimulus. Trump trying to buy a second term, but with democrats holding stimulus hostage, stimulus will come with socialist labor laws and Keynesian helicopter money. Betting markets see now see Trump as the underdog. Mandated paid sick leave will hurt employees. Bailouts for oil, airlines, hotels, and cruise ships are just another backdoor bailout for the banks. While all the safe-haven assets dropped today, bitcoin’s price rose along with the other risk assets. Bitcoin now trades highly correlated with the stock market. Joe Biden’s gender-based VP list is sexist. Bernie Sanders says America’s tax system should be more like Sweden, then admits he knows very little about it.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Oil war that began today will bankrupt many US companies. 60% of stocks in Russell 2000 are lower now than when Donald “the stock market president” Trump  took office. Financials continue to get clobbered and stimulus won’t help them this time. This time nobody will believe QE is temporary or interest rates will normalize. Australia looking to repeat the mistakes of others central banks. Gold broke $1700 today, but didn’t break out. All the babies were thrown out with all the bathwater, including gold mining stocks. Gold price much stronger during this crisis than in 2008. In contrast, the dollar is now falling against other currencies. Massive swings in the currency markets leaving the dollar crumbling against other major safe-haven currencies, unlike in 2008 when that crisis sent the dollar soaring. Gold has much less ground to recover now so if it reacts the way it did after the fed’s last bailout, it has a lot more upside ahead. Perfect conditions for a bitcoin rally, yet it’s collapsing as it fails to live up to hype and people realize it’s nothing more than digital risk. CNBC suddenly and conveniently seems to have forgotten the word “bitcoin.” Phenomenal opportunity now to dump bitcoin and buy gold before the bottom really drops out on bitcoin.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Week closes out with another big drop in the markets. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit new lows. Russell 2000 on-track to have lost value during Trump’s four years in office. Oil prices are plunging, which is bullish news for gold mining companies as their production costs decrease and gold prices increase. Fed’s balance sheet rose by a whole month's worth in one week and it looks like that trend will continue in the weeks to come. Fed’s crisis hasn’t even begun.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Another huge move down in the markets today. Heavy carnage in the banks as treasury yields plunge. Fed’s days of bubble blowing are over. Next dose of stimulus will be the overdose. Coronavirus may be the pin that pricks stock market, bond market, and bitcoin bubbles. More bad news expected as the only previously strong jobs market, travel and leisure, starts to suffer from coronavirus. Layoffs will trickle through the economy quickly.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

* More bearish technical signs in the market. Fed issues an historic 50-basis-point, inter-meeting, emergency rate cut. Investors are realizing Fed can’t cure the coronavirus or the markets with their rate cuts. * Fed’s rate cut is decisively bullish for gold and silver. As the market was tanking, gold had one of it’s best days in a while, signaling more strength ahead. * Who were Friday's gold sellers? * Better to have been early and right, than late and wrong. The Real Crash is coming. * Democrats would rather lose with Biden than risk winning with Sanders   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Bear markets have notoriously big rallies as they fall down the slope of hope. Today’s record breaking 1200 point rally in the Dow may be an example of that. Markets betting on a 50 basis point rate cut to interest rates and more quantitative easing. Part of the market rally likely also due to diminishing chance of a Bernie Sanders presidency. But Biden will also be bad for the markets and he has a greater chance of winning Nothing goes up in straight lines. Bull markets have notoriously big declines as they climb the wall of worry, which we may have seen on Friday. Gold stock positioned for record highs.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

* Dow down 404% with a record 1200 point drop. * Coronavirus damage to the market cannot be undone * Major discounts in the gold mining stocks * Coronavirus task force is more like a plunge protection team for the stock market * Fed’s bullets may no longer work against superman bubble * I have a PR problem in PR   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

US stock market pounded again for the 6th day in a row. Two back to back days with markets down 3%. The only time it’s ever happened three days in a row was during the great depression. Gold living up to its role as a store of value. Bitcoin fails the test as a reserve currency. Bitcoin pumpers forced to admit it is not digital gold. It’s digital risk. Democrat candidates pander against each other.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

* All major indexes down and looking weak. * Bubble is looking for a pin and coronavirus might be it. * Dumb money is piling into treasuries. Safe-haven money is moving to gold.  * CNBC still obsessed with bitcoin. Remains silent on record breaking gold prices. * Warren Buffet thinks Bitcoin is garbage and it’s going to $0. * Baby Boomers sowed the winds for socialism. * If you thought Obama was bad with executive orders, just wait for a President Sanders. * The markets will drop by 50% under President Sanders. * More people will die from the Sanders virus than coronavirus.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

* Significant moves in the bond market today. * Coronavirus is inflationary. * US has never been less credit-worthy than it is right now. * US treasuries have the lowest yields in history and are GUARANTEED TO LOSE money. * Bond market is now undisputedly a bubble, but CNBC spins a different view. * I won a bet. * Perspective is everything when it comes to an investment strategy.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Liz Claman has a new podcast called “Everyone Talks to Liz Claman.” It’s a great show and I was on it earlier this week where I talked about growing up, some personal stories, and things you haven’t heard me talk about in other interviews. I highly encourage you to check out the episode here. Coronavirus continues to help the dollar, but is helping gold even more. Gold’s bull market continues upward as more countries see their currencies lose record value to gold. Citibank calls for $2k gold within 1-2 years. CNBC dismisses the call as an unimpressive 25% gain and pumps bitcoin instead. Gold may be the best hedge against the stock market. Gold ETFs have accumulated a record amount of gold in storage. Gold is up 60% in the past 4 years. Get your gold and silver BEFORE the big moves start happening. * The best way to own physical gold is by purchasing it from SchiffGold. * The best way to own gold jewelry is by purchasing from Menet jewelry. If you bought some when I first promoted it, you could trade it in for MORE gold than you originally purchased. * If you want to see more of a return on gold’s climb, buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX)   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Coronavirus may be worse than anyone thought, but why aren’t the markets worried? Gold mining stocks looking positive again. Underlying weakness in the dollar being revealed in gold. Obama and Trump are fighting over a booming economy that doesn’t exist. 1/3rd of Americans run out of money between paychecks. Over 25% of households spend half or more of their income on rent. Delinquencies on auto-loans are higher now than they were at the worst part of the great recession. Bernie Sanders has an advantage over Michael Bloomberg. Art Laffer cheerleads Trump on Fox Business. Trump nominates ass-kissing liar to the Fed.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Nobody seems to be talking about the downward revisions in the jobs reports, particularly for 2018. Trump’s celebrated jobs numbers have been revised down 370k jobs for that year. Obama’s weak jobs record is better than Trump’s. A lot more jobs were created in the last 3 years of Obama’s presidency than the last 3 years of Trump’s. Deficits are exploding through the roof. Trump is setting records in government debt, but thanks to Trump and the Republicans, no one cares about the deficits anymore. Gold hit a record high in terms of the Euro, which means people who are bearish on the Euro are turning to gold as a safe-haven. Stock market doesn’t seem to be worried about the possibility of a President Bernie Sanders. Maybe they want more QE and negative interest rates? Bernie Sanders can out-promise Trump and people are underestimating the power of all that free money. Sean Hannity’s fake outrage is not a good look. Owning a home does not make you wealthy. Bitcoin may be rising now, but it’s still not gold.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The impeachment trial of Donald Trump ends no real surprise, he was acquitted. The whole thing came down along party lines and was all calculated political theater and posturing for the 2020 election. But the real theater was during Trump’s State of the Union last night. Trump pitched socialist policies and touted his fake Chinese trade deal. He spoke to Congress for 90 minutes and not once mentioned the national debt. Since Trump took office, trade deficits have increased and manufacturing jobs have decreased. More women are forced to join the workforce due to economic circumstances at home. If the economy were as good as Trump claims, he’d be calling on congress to cut spending or balance the budget or reduce the size of budget deficits. If you can’t tackle the debt when the economy is in the greatest boom in the history of the world, when can you tackle it? Trump apparently can’t find one program or agency to cut spending on. Instead he just bragged about all the social programs and weapons he was spending money on, not to mention Space Force! Trump is playing a massive PR game right now. Rush Limbaugh has cancer. Liberals are sick. Pete Budajudge wins the Iowa Caucus disaster. Sanders wants to give new “Rights” to the disabled. Markets have recouped from their recent “coronavirus sell-off.” Ford Motor Company earnings disappoint investors. GM is still trading where it was 7 years ago. Tesla is a bubble in itself.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

“So goes January, so goes the year.” If the old adage is true, this could mean the longest bull market in history is coming to an end. And from a political perspective, it couldn’t come at a worse time. Another adage in investing is “buy the rumor sell the fact.” I mentioned in a recent podcast that investors would soon be selling the facts behind Trump’s trade deal. Well, it didn’t take very long for the markets to find a reason to sell. The markets were clobbered today and contrary to what the media says, the coronavirus is not the reason. It’s just an excuse and if they didn’t have the coronavirus, they’d find something else to blame. A lot of the stocks going down are retailers and have nothing to do with coronavirus. If the coronavirus passes and this slump in the market doesn’t, reasons for optimism will start fade fast. 2019 numbers show only 2.3% GDP growth. Could 3 rate cuts and a return to QE possibly be the reason? Joe Biden gave Bernie Sanders a bone by claiming he’s not a real Democrat. Voters are sick of party insiders and this will backfire on Biden the way it did on the Republican candidates when they accused Trump of not being a real Republican. Nobody would invent keto ice cream in a Socialist economy. Gold stocks continue to be undervalued. This is a gift horse and you don’t want to look it in the mouth. Gold is up again. If gold is this strong with the headwind of a strengthening dollar, just imagine the strength it will have with the tailwind of a falling dollar.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Weak days for the stock market Friday and Monday will likely be blamed on the coronavirus. The real virus to be concerned about is Bernie Sanders as he infects more voters with his rapidly spreading burn. Bernie Sanders was on Phil Donahue in 1981 when it made news that a Vermont town elected a Socialist mayor. Phil Donahue asks if he believed in competition. Bernie Sanders said no. He said he believes in cooperation, a.k.a. Socialism/Marxism/Communism. Bernie has certainly been very consistent. He’s been saying the same things the past 30-40 years, but he’s been wrong the whole time. He never grew up, became wise, or developed intellectually. He’s Peter Pan except he can’t fly. The stock market has barely started to react to the possibility of a Sanders president and that possibility may be becoming a probability. And if not Sanders 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in a good position for 2024 Frustrated father questions Elizabeth Warren about her student loan policies and she laughs in his face. Gold is up better than 4% for the year and there are more reasons to be bullish on gold stocks.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

While I was at VRIC, Trump was in Davos touting to other world leaders the “unmatched” period of prosperity America is experiencing, thanks to him. Trump claims that nobody benefits more from his presidency than the middle class. In reality, the only people benefitting are the asset owners - the 1%. There are more women than men in the workforce for the first time ever. Housing prices and household income are at all-time highs. Trump spins these as signs of a healthy economy, but the opposite is true. This period of prosperity America is going through is a figment of Trump’s imagination, but the Republican party and Wall St aren’t questioning it. On CNBC, Trump tells Joe Kernen that he still doesn’t know who’s buying these negative yielding bonds. He admits to having no intentions of paying off the national debt or cutting government spending. Trump pretends we can pay for it all with the bubble that he thinks is an economic “boom.” Trump and the Fed are proving there is no exit strategy for these inflationary policies. Tesla stock, the most heavily shorted stock has skyrocketed, putting shorts through the grinder. Sanders passes Biden to #1 in the Democratic presidential polls. Democrats are worried because Sanders will actually try the socialist policies that they know won’t work. It’s not common a Democratic presidential candidate has principles. Unfortunately, this time those principles are socialism. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and the people who vote for Sanders are going to be feeling the burn worse than anyone. If you thought socialism was scary, AOC has gone full blown communist. She says inventors, business owners, and entrepreneurs are stealing off the backs of the workers and the workers should organize and steal those businesses back. AOC and Bernie are reactions to Trump and when this economy finally blows up on Trump’s watch, it’s going to pave the way for a socialist (or worse) president of the United States of America. And there may not be any coming back from that. Also, I lost all my bitcoin. They’re gone.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Dow Jones closed above 29,000 today for the first time ever. Part of the impotence of this rally has been anticipation of the trade deal with China, but the majority of the rally is due to the policies of the Fed as it quietly returns to quantitative easing. The so-called good news of the trade deal is in the past and traders who were buying the rumors may start selling off on the facts. Especially since the facts of the trade deal didn’t even live up to the rumors. The trade deal is a big fat disappointment that didn’t live up to Trump’s hype. It’s not even a real deal; it’s written as a bunch of suggestions that either party can back-out of at any time. The deal is a double-win for China. It supposedly commits China to buying more food and energy from the U.S., but China ends up getting the commodities they need with an easy way to unload their U.S. treasuries before they collapse. The Fed will have to buy more treasuries and print more money, to keep interest rates from going up. Gold market stronger now after the trade deal signed. Gold’s technicals haven’t looked like this since 2000 when the dot com bubble burst and gold’s bear market ended. Americans don’t see the gold bull market that foreigners do because gold has made a new high in every currency except the U.S. dollar and is outperforming foreign stock markets, but not the U.S. stock market. Fed released a weak jobs report with a big loss of 12,000 manufacturing jobs. Americans are working less hours and getting paid less for the hours they work. Bloomberg wins the democratic debates by not showing up. Democratic presidential candidates are right about healthcare costs being too high, but they’re wrong about the reasons and solutions.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are less diffused than everyone seems as the propaganda strengthens on both sides of the political theater. NASDAQ, Dow, S&P hit new record highs. Trump is eager for Dow to hit 30k so he can tweet up a storm claiming credit. Risk premiums for crude and gold are still there although gold mining stocks got obliterated as war became less imminent. Investors were spooked as gold dropped from $1610 to $1540 in a 24 hour period. Despite gold mining stocks getting crushed, gold itself is up 2% for the year. This presents an even better buy for gold stocks as they catch up to gold’s $1550 support. People are underestimating the popularity of socialism in America and investors are underestimating the possibility of a Bernie Sanders win. A lawsuit tries to postpone California’s new law aimed at the gig economy. Lawmakers say it’s to protect independent contractors, but it’s the independent contractors filing the lawsuit.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

We had a break-through in gold, which I predicted could happen. That means there’s a very good chance gold is done going down. All signs point to a big bull market in gold and the window of opportunity to get in on it may be closing rapidly. While recording this podcast, reports of a U.S. airbase in Iraq under attack from Iranian missiles launched gold above $1,600. It’s amazing how little people understand about how well gold mining stocks are performing. While the S&P has returned 72% over the past 4 years, GDX has returned 125% over the same period. Over the past 5 quarters, S&P is up 12% while GDX is up 58%. You won’t hear any of that on CNBC. I think the best way to gain exposure to gold mining stocks is to buy the Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX), managed by the expert, Adrian Day. Morning Star gave the Euro Pacific Gold Fund 5 stars and it’s been the number 1 performing gold fund from 2013 to 2018. The fund is also rated to have above average returns and below average risks, making it one of the smartest investments you can make right now. Videos to watch: Peter Schiff at Occupy Wall Street "I am the 1%. Let's Talk" Democrats: Let’s Ban Profits 2006 Mortgage Bankers Speech Walmart Shoppers Support Everyday High Wages Is a College Degree Worth the Cost? You Decide Peter Schiff Argues Against 3 Typical Liberals (my last appearance on CNN) Mr. Schiff Goes to Washington (first Congressional testimony) Mr. Schiff Returns to Washington (second Congressional testimony) Peter Schiff Stand-up Comedy . Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Markets off to a volatile start for the new year. U.S. assassinates an Iranian military general driving up safe haven investments like oil, gold, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Treasury market. Gold outshines them all. But is the world safer or more dangerous than ever? Bitcoin touted as the best performing asset of the decade. But it’s not that simple. CNBC thinks the hardest job for the Fed is creating inflation. The biggest problem is really their inability to stop inflation. The monetary spigots are flowing heavy and they’re going to flow even heavier leading up to the election. It’s a dangerous time for markets with the coming election. There was a time when America would never vote in socialism, but that’s no longer the case. This election may bring in one of the largest single day stock market drops in history.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Second to Last Trading of the Decade... All of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the second to last trading day of this year in the red. Although, it's not just the second to last trading day of the year, it is the second to last trading day of the decade. Technically speaking, I know the next decade doesn't really start until January 1, 2021, but practically speaking, it's going to be the 20's. So, to me, that's a new decade. Closing With a Gain of About 30% in the S&P So let's just say tomorrow is the last trading day of the decade.  And even if we get another decline tomorrow, I don't know what's going to happen - maybe we'll get a bounce, but I doubt it will be significant enough to turn the tide on this bull market or this bubble - bear market rally - whatever you want to call it - but it looks like we're going to close the year with a gain of about 30% in the S&P 5000. Not our Strongest Year in Recent Memory That's going to put the market with its best annual increase since 2013 - which, of course is not that long ago. So we did have a rise in 2013 when Obama was President, where the S&P had a year that was as good as this year, with Donald Trump as President. So clearly, it's not simply a case that we have Trump as President and that's why we have such a strong market. We've  had plenty of years where the market was this strong and Trump wasn't President. In fact, Barack Obama was President.  One of the reasons that the market was so strong this year is because it finished last year so weak.  I think the 4th quarter of last year we were down 13 - 14% - but it was a very big decline which would have been much much bigger but for that record surge the day after Christmas.  Remember that Boxing Day - I think the Dow was up about 1,000 points.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Liz Claman, Gene Epstein, Jim Grant, Peter Schiff, David Tice, Tom Woods at the NYC Premier of Jimmy Morrison's "The Bubble" Order The Bubble here November Personal Income and Spending Positive On Friday, all of the major U.S. stock market indexes finished the day and the week positive, in record territory. The only index not in record territory (but it did make a new 52-week high) is the Russell 2000. The supposed catalyst for Friday's optimism was a better than expected report on Personal Income & Spending for November. They were looking for personal spending to rise by .3% following the prior month's flat number.  They actually revised that one up to +.1%, and the November number came out at +.5%, so incomes rising.  Spending came in and met expectations of +.4%, so apparently the savings rate ticked up a bit. But this was better than expected. I think that caused some optimism on Wall Street. Kansas City Manufacturing Index Disappoints But the markets likely would have gone up, anyway, even if that number disappointed. We did get weak data from manufacturing.  Kansas City manufacturing number came out for November.  It was supposed to be weak at a -3%, but it was even weaker at -8%. That is the lowest level for this index in 4 years. . In fact, we've had 6 consecutive monthly declines in the Kansas City Manufacturing Index, and that really is par for the course. We get stronger economic data when it comes to people spending money but we have weaker data when it comes to generating real production, real wealth, goods production manufacturing - all that data comes out weaker than expected. U.S. Steel Lays off 1,500 Workers in Michigan In fact, we got news on Friday that U.S. is going to be laying off more than 1500 workers in the state of Michigan. Of course, this flies in the face of the fantasy that is being promoted by Donald Trump that the steel industry is back - the steel industry is booming. He's been talking a lot since he's been elected about the steel industry, in particular, about how he saved it, and how it's great. But here we are, laying off workers, shutting down production facilities.  This is a sign that reality is in direct contradiction to President Trump's fantasy.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Narrative of Racism So I decided to record a special edition of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, and it's very important topic, and I also wanted to include some video. It's not directly related to the economy or the markets, but really, indirectly, it is, because this nation is being pushed to the left by a lot of false narratives.  One of them, being racism, particularly when it comes to the issues of wealth disparity and trying to blame the difference in wealth between African Americans and the general population, and the reason for this is because of a pervasive and systemic racism, and that the only way that African Americans can succeed is if we elect a bunch of socialists who will enact laws to save them from racism and to re-distribute the wealth. Media Remains Steadfast as Evidence Contradicts And part of that narrative really was advanced back in 2012 with the Trayvon Martin incident with George Zimmerman and people who were listening to the Peter Schiff Show back in 2012, I really covered this topic pretty extensively. I was one of the earliest defenders of Zimmerman, and the reason I did that is because, as the evidence was coming out, it was completely contradicting the false narrative that was being pushed by the Martin family, by the media.  Yet the media remains steadfast in their opinion, even though they had all this evidence that contradicted it. New Information Brought to Light Well, the reason that I've resurrected this topic is that now George Zimmerman is in the news again, he has filed a $100 million lawsuit against the Trayvon Martin family, the mom and dad, the lawyers, prosecutors, and the media is again pushing the same false narrative.  They are writing all sorts of articles really vilifying Zimmerman all over again: "How dare this guy file this lawsuit!  Hasn't he done enough damage? He murdered a child and now he is suing the parents of the victim - all this terrible coverage.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

U.S. China Trade Deal Rumors are True The U.S. stock market continues to add to its gains; the Dow Jones is up another 100 points today - a new record high: 28,235.89. We were up better than 200 points at one point in the day, but all the indexes are hitting new 52-week, or record highs.  Basically, we continue to bask in the light of the U.S. China Trade Deal that on Friday, we finally got news that the rumors of a trade deal were actually true. There actually is a trade deal because the Chinese have agreed, or admitted that they, too have come to some type of understanding with the United States on a Phase 1 Deal. Lost in Translation? Of course, we don't actually have the phase 1 deal yet because nothing is actually official; nothing has been signed. In fact, both sides seem to have different versions over what they have agreed to; so maybe some of the stuff has been "lost in translation".  We'll have to see if they can actually put something in writing where both sides will agree. A Truce in the Trade War But one thing we know is that whatever is involved in this deal - this is not the resolution. This is not a trade deal; this isn't even the end of the trade war. I would say it's probably a truce. It's not an outright surrender, although that's probably coming eventually, but it's really a truce in the trade war, and a de-escalation of arms. One of the things that the U.S. is supposedly committed to is rolling back the tariffs. Not only calling off new tariffs that were supposed to take effect over the weekend, but eliminating or reducing the tariffs that are already in place. But as far as a comprehensive deal that actually delivers the type of structural change that President Trump promised; nobody thinks that any of that stuff is involved in this deal at all.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Fed: Interest Rates on Pause Today the Federal Reserve had its last official meeting of the year. And, as was widely expected, the Federal Reserve was unanimous in their decision not to cut interest rates. They didn't even consider hiking interest rates, but they decided not to cut them any further for now. So, they're on a pause.  The short-term rates are now 1.5%. The target is 1.5% to  1.75%, and the idea is that the Fed is going to remain there for some time.  Now, I don't really think it is going to be that long before they cut rates. Fed Will be back to Rate Cutting Soon I was on Fox Business earlier today with Liz Claman, and Liz asked me when I thought they were going to cut rates in 2020. I said, I don't know the exact meeting,  that they're going to choose to do it.  I think a lot of it depends on what's happening with the stock market. As soon as the stock market starts to sell off, if that's what happens, I think that could motivate the Fed for the next rate cut. And maybe, if we get enough bad economic data, the Fed might move for that reason. But whatever the reason is going to be, whatever the excuse they're going to make up, the Fed is not done cutting. I don't think they will pause until 2021 or later, as a lot of people seem to believe.  I think the Fed is going to be back in the rate cutting business much sooner than that. The November deficit: $2o9 Billion Of course, the quantitative easing business - that's not going to stop. They're going to continue to expand their balance sheet and print money so that they can prop up the bond market and prop up the stock market and prop up the government.  So that is going to continue.  In fact, we got the official budget deficit released, I guess at about the same time as we got the Fed decision.  The November deficit: $2o9 billion.  We've not got two months into this quarter and the deficits are running much higher than they were earlier, so even though the economy is supposedly getting better, the deficits are getting bigger.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The Trayvon Hoax: Unmasking The Witness Fraud That Divided America Jeantel's Lies: Prosecution's Star Witness in George Zimmerman Trial Commits Perjury Special Podcast about a Hoax I wanted to to take some time and record a special podcast today, really having nothing to do with the markets and the economy and just focus on a topic that I haven't discussed in quite some time. I do believe that the politics surrounding this event are relevant to the economy, and to the markets, although, because really has set in motion political winds that are blowing the country in a direction that is very detrimental to the U.S. economy and to the markets. Circumstances Surrounding the Death of Trayvon Martin I think it was 2012 when the Trayvon Martin story really took off in the U.S. If you remember, George Zimmerman is the person killed Trayvon Martin and, initially, everybody was quick to believe the completely ridiculous-sounding story that was being perpetrated by the Martin family and their attorney, as to what happened, and the circumstances surrounding the death of Trayvon Martin. Who is the Racist? I was one of the earlier who came out and I was defending George Zimmerman.  I took a lot of heat back then, initially, because people were saying, "Hey, it's racist for me to be defending George Zimmerman. But the reality was, I thought it was racist for the people to have believed the complete nonsense - a ridiculous story about what happened. It made a lot more sense to me, just judging by the facts, not looking at the races of the individuals or any of that, just judging by the facts - George Zimmerman's version of events made sense. Plausible vs. Implausible The other version made no sense at all.  I think it was the racists who were so quick to dismiss George Zimmerman's version, which made sense, was supported by all the evidence and the other witness testimony that came out - rather than simply believing the parents of Trayvon Martin or their lawyer.  Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Schiffbooks.com Letusdissagree.com Mene.com Dow Up From Last Week's Trade Deal Woes The Dow Jones closed out the week with 3 plus days in a row, culminating in today's 337 point jump, back above 28,000 - the Dow settling in at 28,015.06.  Remember, when I recorded my podcast on Tuesday, we had just finished 3 consecutive down days in a row, and that's been reversed.  The catalyst for the decline, prior to my last podcast was negative news on trade.  In particular, the news that Donald Trump, at a press conference, let the cat out of the bag and said, "As far as I'm concerned, it would be better if we waited until after the election to have a trade deal with China. And, of course, the markets were expecting a trade deal any day and all of a sudden Trump is saying, "Hey, I think it's better to wait until after the election." - which is a year from now. Of course, it's not a lock that Trump is going to win a second term. Nonetheless, that was a negative for the market. Positive Trade News Equals New Dow Highs Well, what happened, was, on Monday morning, pretty much before they even rang the bell, the White House was already doing damage control and walking that back because all of a sudden I started reading these headlines, "White House Says Trade Talks Going Well". Of course, that means nothing. But you have a lot of traders now who are keying in on these press releases. As soon as they see any positive news, they just buy. As long as positive trade news makes the market go up, whenever they see the positive trade news, they're going to buy. Will We Ever Have a Fact to Sell On? The reason that all of this news makes people want to buy stocks is because everybody believes that when we do get a deal, the stock market's going to soar. So everybody wants to be in so they can sell that rally. Of course, I've been saying since the beginning that I think it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", which is why we're probably never going to have a fact to sell.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

What Phase One? When the Phase One trade deal was first announced, it was October 11, I think was the date. And before that date, nobody ever heard, "Phase One". It was always, "trade deal, trade deal".  There was never any talk of Phase One.  Then all of a sudden Trump comes out and says, "We've completed Phase One! The Phase One deal is done. We have concluded negotiations, we have come to a deal. We have this great Phase One deal; it's already done. It's in the bag. We've agreed to it in principle, all we need is the formalities of putting it on paper. We're going to have a big signing ceremony, and it's all going to be done." Oh, and by the way, Trump said, "This is the greatest deal ever for American farmers. They have never had a deal this great; go out and buy some more tractors; I don't even know if we can fill this order, it's so big - it's the biggest order in the history of agriculture!"  It's a good thing farmers didn't go out and buy new equipment based on Trump's phony promises. Sending the Dow Up - Buy the Rumor! But in any event Marc Faber asked Wilbur Ross, "Do you regret this?" Do you think Trump should not have come out and said this?" And he said, "No, we don't regret it."  Of course, why should he regret it? The Dow rose by 1600 points following that comment! That comment sparked all sorts of more comments; the deal is imminent any day, any week or they're going to sign it here... "Buy the rumor, buy the rumor, buy the rumor!" And they pushed the market.  The Dow went through 28,000 on all that B.S. So why should Wilbur Ross regret that, when the comments worked? Bidding the Spoos Higher I said a long, time ago: "Trump is not talking to the Chinese. He's not negotiating, because if he was, he's the worst negotiator ever. He ought to read, "The Art of the Deal". What he is saying makes no sense, if you're trying to negotiate. The only way Trump's statements make any sense is if they're really designed to boost the stock market. He's not talking to the Chinese; he's talking to the algo's. He's talking to the traders. He's trying to bid the spoos higher.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Recorded November 26, 2019 The Radical Solution Should Be Free Market Capitalism The problem is, this coming crisis is going to be so bad, it's going to be so much worse than 2008 and you know it's all going to be blamed on capitalism. It's all going to be the left saying "We told you so!" "We cut taxes for the rich, we deregulated. Trump inherited a great economy from Obama and everything he inherited he squandered it with tax cuts for the rich." And things are going to be very tough. People will demand radical solutions. I wish the radical solution could be Free Market Capitalism, because we haven't had that in a long time - but everybody's convinced that that's all we've had. Even the people who supposedly defend capitalism think that it needs a makeover, that it needs to be re-done for the modern era. Get Government Out and Market Forces Back In We don't need to re-do capitalism. We just NEED capitalism. What we have to do is get all the socialism out of capitalism. It's giving it a bad name. We need to get government out of all this stuff so that market forces can get back in. How Old Is Too Young to Vote? I want to finish up the podcast talking about voting. So I read this article about a town, Brookline, that had approved a measure to lower the voting age down to 16. That's part of the Democrat platform. In addition to doing away with the Electoral College and making D.C. and Puerto Rico states, they want to lower the voting age to 16. I don't blame the Democrats for wanting the 16-year-olds to vote; almost all of them are going to vote Democrat, because, they're only 16 - what do you expect? In fact, the Democrats want 14-year-olds - 10-year-olds, 5-year-olds! The younger the better! Directly Pandering to Children for Votes They're not old enough to know any better. It's so much easier to fool these people.  But I can just imagine elections where the politicians have to directly pander to children in order to get their votes. Raise the Voting Age So I tweeted that this is a step in the wrong direction. We shouldn't be lowering the voting age, we should be increasing the voting age. The response was, "Oh, my God!  How could you want to do that?".  We've talked about that on this podcast before. The voting age up until the 26th Amendment in the early 7o's was 21.  The idea was, if you're old enough to fight for your country you're old enough to vote. No. That makes as much sense as saying that if you're too old to fight, you're too old to vote.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

What a Shocker The phase one trade deal is not going to happen this year. What a shocker. If you remember, when Trump first surprised everybody and talked about a phase 1 deal. If you remember, it was never phases; it was one big comprehensive Deal. In fact early on, and I've said this before, the President scoffed at the idea that we would negotiate in stages. "That wasn't going to work, It's all or nothing, we need to get the big comprehensive deal. " Then all of a sudden he announces this phase 1 deal, and he say it's going to be the greatest deal, it's going to be great for farmers, the Chinese are going to buy 50 billion dollars worth of food; American farmers better buy some more equipment; we don't even know if they can fill this order, it's the biggest order anyone has ever had; it's the greatest achievement in the history of achievements - all this was supposedly a done deal. And then nothing happened. Phase One China Trade Deal Of course, Kudlow and other White House people would come out and,"Oh, the phase 1 deal is almost here - but now Reuters is saying it's not going to happen this year. Now, it's probably not going to happen next year either, I mean, maybe, because phase 1 - there's hardly anything involved in it, at least the way it is going to end up being. How About Phase 1a? But what I think the President should probably do is forget about phase 1. How about phase 1a? Let's break down phase 1 into a, b and c.  Let's at least do phase 1a.  First we could tease 1a, and then when we get phase 1a, if we ever get phase 1a well then we've got phase 1b to talk about! Surrender without Admitting Defeat Of course, none of this is going to matter, because none of the real stuff is going to be included in any of these phases. Whether it's 1,2,a,b…  Whatever it is, this is all a way for the President to try to save face and surrender in the trade war without actually admitting defeat.    Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Markets Making More Milestones The Dow continued its weekly winning streak with another milestone, closing above 28,000 for the first time: 28,004.89 to be exact.  That's a gain of 222.93.  Now, I'm sure everybody is getting their "Dow 30,000!" hats ready, because obviously that's not too far off, now from 28,000.  But it's not just the Dow that is setting records and crossing milestones. The NASDAQ - another record high today - up 61.81, closing at 8,540.83.  That's the first time the NASDAQ has been above 8,500.  The S&P also making new highs, up 23.83 - 3120.46 is the close. This is the first time the S&P has been above 3100. Russell 2000 Sitting Out the Party The only major index really not enjoying the party, although it was up again today is the Russell 2000, still not quite near an all-time record high.  That index is at 1,596.  Again, the Russell is the one that most reflects the domestic economy, and it is the domestic economy that is in a lot of trouble. In fact, the Dow rose today, despite more weak economic data that was released during the day. Industrial Production: Weak Probably the weakest data point of them all was on industrial production. It was supposed to drop again after falling .4% in September, and they did revise the September drop to -.3% from -.4%.  But instead of a .4 drop in October, which was the consensus forecast, we dropped by .8.  So twice as large a decline. In fact, I think you have to go back to March of 2009 to see a larger decline than that in industrial production.  Capacity Utilization really contracted as well, from 77.5; it went all the way down to 76.7. Halfway to Recession And we also got more weak news on business inventories, which were revised lower.  And I think that, and industrial production and some other weak data points that had come out caused the Atlanta Fed to reduce its forecast for Q4 GDP all the way down to .3%. It was at 1%, and now it's at .3% which is close to zero. And in fact, it's very likely that we could end up with a negative print for Q4 GDP, which means we're halfway to recession.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Why is Michael Bloomberg Actively Preparing to Enter the 2020 Presidential Race? I want to talk a little bit about Michael Bloomberg, entering the primary - and the reason that I think Michael Bloomberg is in. Bloomberg is now a Democrat, but he was a Republican.  He served as mayor of New York as a Republican for 2 terms. Then, I think he served a third term as an independent. But he was a Republican and now he's a Democrat. The reality is, he is a very middle of the road guy. He's a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. But conservative Democrats have not place in the modern Democrat party.  I think Bloomberg's motivation to throw his hat in the ring is the diminishing prospects of Joe Biden. Initially, everybody thought, "OK, Joe Biden's the guy." I think Michael Bloomberg was fine with a President Biden because it represented a continuation of the status quo and the status quo has been very good to Michael Bloomberg, do why wouldn't he want to continue that status quo? Socialists are Frankenstein's Monster Consuming the Democratic Party But with the rise of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and the increasing likelihood that Warren could actually be the next President, I think that scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg and I think it also scares the hell out of Mike Bloomberg's rich friends who are also Democrats. This is an example of Frankenstein and the monster. Baron Von Frankenstein created a monster and then Frankenstein's monster turned on its creator. And I think that's what these limousine liberals have done with the Democrat party. They have created this monster and now the monster is about to consume them. Rich Democrats Would Rather Re-Elect Trump Than Support Warren or Sanders I think what wealthy liberals are afraid to admit is, as much as they claim they don't like Donald Trump (and some of them don't like Donald Trump) they dislike Warren even more. A lot of these rich Democrats would rather see Trump re-elected than have Warren or Sanders elected. Now they don't want to come out and admit that, but they don't want to support a socialist. They're not that crazy - but they don't want the rest of the crazies in the Democratic party to know that.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Better Luck Next Fall I just got back yesterday from the New Orleans Investment Conference, and I actually came to Connecticut for a few days; I really wanted to experience some of the fall foliage.  It's normally at its peak in the beginning of November. But, unfortunately we had a big storm here - a lot of rain, a lot of wind, and it knocked most of the leaves off of the trees.  So you know what they say about the best laid plans… hopefully I'll have better luck next fall. Stock Market High on Trade Rumors But as the leaves have been falling from the trees, stocks have been going the other direction.  Yesterday, all of the major stock market indexes hit new record highs. I think the catalyst, again, were rumors about a potential phase 1 trade deal. Of course, it really is ridiculous now.  What rallies the market is not the rumor of an actual trade deal but the rumors of a phony trade deal - a phase 1 deal which really isn't a deal at all. In fact, to the extent that anybody is even celebrating phase 1, what they really celebrating is that the trade war is over. That Donald Trump has basically surrendered without admitting that he has surrendered.  In fact a lot of the talk about what the Chinese even need to get the phase 1 deal is for all of the tariffs to be removed. Not just cancelling the future tariffs, but to take away all the tariffs that are already there, which, of course would be a relief for the American consumer, who, contrary to Donald Trump's claim, they're the ones who pay the tax - not the Chinese. Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact… Again? But, basically, what the markets would really be celebrating, is if we went back to where we were before the trade war ever began. Of course, this is not a victory for the president if all the markets could hope for, is a return to the status quo, but again, once we get that deal - if we get that deal, it should be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact", especially since the fact is not going to live up to the height of the rumor.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

New Highs in the Headlines We had record high closes today in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite; the Dow Jones not quite a new record but still up better than 300 points: 301.13 to be precise. Of course, all of the headlines, and President Trump - they're going to be claiming that the reason that we had these surging stock prices is because we had a stronger than expected jobs report.  We got the October nonfarm payroll that came out this morning and it was better than was expected. You had Larry Kudlow out there talking about how this is a fantastic jobs report.  It basically shows how we have this great economy; the greatest economy in the history of America, and that's the reason that the stock market is making record highs, because we have this great economy. Economic Data was a Mixed Bag Well, first of all, the jobs report is really not that great.  Sure, it was stronger than expected, but that's not why the stock market went up today. We had other economic data that came out that was weaker than expected, so it was an overall mixed bag. In fact, the Atlanta Fed came out today and downwardly revised their forecast for Q4 GDP from 1.5% down to 1.1%, and I think the New York Fed is actually below 1% in its forecast for fourth quarter GDP. So hardly the strongest economy in history, yet the markets and President Trump are certainly celebrating like the economy is strong. Nonfarm Payroll up from an Upwardly Revised Previous Month But let me get to the tale of the tape first in the jobs report, because we were looking for a weak number. So the bar was pretty low. The consensus was for 90,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and one of the reasons was because of the striking GM workers, so they were going to be subtracted from the numbers.  So that was already baked into the cake. We ended up getting 128,000 jobs, so nicely above those diminished expectations.  But probably more significantly, they went back and upwardly revised the number they told us for the prior month, which was originally reported at +136,000.  Now the government claims it was +180,000.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The Fed Slashes Interest Rates for 3rd Time As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today.  This is the third rate cut of this cycle.  We're now down to 1.5%. But of course, what everybody has to remember is a year ago, when the Fed was hiking interest rates, the forecast from the Fed was that they were going to continue to hike rates.  They were supposed to have another 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019.  And, of course, a year ago, as the Fed was hiking rates, they were still shrinking their balance sheet and they were going to continue to shrink it. They were talking about auto-pilot. They were going to continue to do $50 billion/month of quantitative tightening.  And they said this with a straight face.  And everybody believed them. Not a Surprise to Me Of course, everybody except me and maybe a few other people out there in the financial media. But I was telling anybody who would listen - which was not that many people in the mainstream, but certainly the people who listen to my podcasts, that none of this was going to happen. I said that the Fed was going to have to stop hiking rates, and that they would be cutting rates in 2019, and that not only were they going to stop quantitative tightening, that they were going to have to go back to quantitative easing. And that's exactly where we are. A Distinction without a Difference Although, Jerome Powell went out of his way - I think the first thing that he said when he made his prepared remarks - was to reassure everybody that what the Fed was doing now, with its repo program was not quantitative easing. He drew a distinction between what the Fed was doing when it was doing QE and what it is doing now when it is not doing QE.  The main distinction had to do with the maturities of the debt that the Fed was buying.  He said that when they were doing QE, they were buying longer term government bonds, but that now, they're buying shorter term government bonds and so therefore it's not QE. But this is really a distinction without a difference.          Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

I am Back! I am back! I know a lot of people have been upset that I haven't been able to do a podcast in almost 2 weeks. The reason I've been absent… I just haven't been feeling well.  I've been coughing a lot and and haven't been up for doing a podcast - I'm doing one today, though.  I'm still a little bit sick… but I figure it's been long enough, so I have to talk a little bit about what's on my mind. Dollar Index Trending Lower First of all, there hasn't been that much activity, I guess, in the markets over this time period. The U.S. dollar has generally been weaker.  It has been trending down.  It hasn't really broken down yet, but it is going lower.  In fact, the dollar index closed today near 97.69. so that is lower than it had been.  Remember, a few weeks ago, the dollar index was above 99. So the dollar is trending lower. Interest Rates Up - Bond Prices Down Interest rates are actually moving higher.  Bond prices are going down.  The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury now is at 2.26, and I think this is significant because it really shows the problems that are building in the economy because the dollar is weakening and interest rates are rising. That is going to mean higher consumer prices, it's going to mean higher borrowing costs; now of course, the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to artificially suppress interest rates. One of the stories that I've read several times over the last couple of weeks is how the Federal Reserve is having to do more repurchase agreements; having to increase the size of the amount of Treasuries they're buying in the market. I didn't see that in today's balance sheet numbers; the balance sheet was up only about 2 billion over the prior week.  But I have a feeling that the number is going to be much, much higher than that when we get it a week from today.        Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances: The Dallas Money Show October 13-14 and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4 Dow jumps 300 points U.S. stocks finished out the week on a strong note; in fact we broke a 3-week losing streak. This was the first time in 4 weeks that the major averages finished higher on the week. When I recorded my podcast earlier in the week, the week was off to a rough start. But we had a turnaround.  In fact, today the Dow Jones was up 319 points on the day - about a 1.2% gain. The NASDAQ was up even more; 106 points, that's 1.34%.  The Russell 2000, even better, up 1.8%.  The Dow Transports were the stars of the day.  They were up 2.23% - 224 points.  Look at stocks like Apple, rising almost 3% to a new all-time record high. Rumors and News Driving the Market There was a lot of news driving the market today. Initially, we got rumors of some type of Brexit deal that potentially was imminent. Of course, there have been all sorts of rumors that have never panned out regarding a Brexit deal. But this morning, there was a rumor that really was causing a lot of buying in the European markets and that spilled over into the U.S. futures, which helped the U.S. market.  And of course there was a lot of brewing optimism over some kind of impending trade deal with China, although that news didn't come out until very close to the close. U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbs to 3-Month High in October But, earlier in the day, we got the Consumer Sentiment number for October, and the markets are already higher by the time we got this release, which comes out at 10am; the market opens at 9:30. The prior month was 93.2, and the consensus was for a slight drop in consumer sentiment to 92.  After all, there are a lot of reasons for consumers to be less optimistic now than they were back then. But the consumer… surprise - ended up being more optimistic. The number came out at 96 and that sent the price of stocks much higher.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances: The Dallas Money Show October 13-14 and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4 Another Weak Day in the Equity Market We had another weak day in the equity market, so the 4th quarter is starting off on a particularly sour note. The Dow, down 314 points today. Technically speaking, closing right near the lows: down 1.2%. NASDAQ had a much worse day, down 132 points - that's 1.67%.  Russell 2000, similarly beat up: 1.7%, down 25 points.  The Transports really took it on the chin. They down 1.85%. 185 points down on the Transports. The money losing stocks, the recent IPO's continue to get beat up. The real debacle du jour was Smile Direct. That one was down another 15% today: down $2 - it closed at $11.34 right off the new low of $11.20.  Remember, this stock came public less than 2 weeks ago and it was $23 a share.  The highest it actually traded was $21.10. Now we're down better than 50% from the IPO. Fed: QE but not QE But I really don't want to spend a lot of time talking about the markets today.  In fact, I only want to talk about one thing, and that's the Fed and the return to Quantitative Easing . I wasn't even going to do a podcast today; Yom Kippur starts in a couple of hours so I was just going to skip it. In fact, I wasn't even going to do one tomorrow - I was probably going to wait until Thursday. But then I was watching this press conference with Jerome Powell where basically the Fed came out and said they were doing QE, except they said they weren't doing QE. "Increasing Securities Holdings to Maintain an Appropriate Level of Reserves" There's an old saying: "Never believe something until it's been officially denied. Jerome Powell went out of his way today in his statement and in the Q and A that followed to emphatically say that the Fed is not doing QE. This is an exact quote from Powell: "This is not QE.  In no sense is this QE."  Except, in every sense it's QE, because it's exactly QE.  There's also an old saying," If it walks like a duck, it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it's a duck." Well, this looks like QE, it smells like QE, it quacks like QE, it walks like it… it is QE! What is the difference between QE and what the Fed is now doing? I wish someone would really ask that question.  In his prepared remarks, this is what Powell said: “As we indicated in our March statement on balance sheet normalization, at some point, we will begin increasing our securities holdings to maintain an appropriate level of reserves,” he said. “That time is now upon us.” Already? In March they said that "at some point"?  Did anybody back then think "some point" meant "NOW"?Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances: The Dallas Money Show October 13-14 and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4 The Weakest First Two Days of Any Quarter Since 2008 Before I get into what happened with today's nonfarm payroll number and the 372.68 rally in the Dow that it helped spark, I want to back and talk about what happened on Wednesday and Thursday, which were the 2 days following my Tuesday podcast, from the first day of the 4th quarter of the year. On Wednesday, the market sold off sharply, in fact at one point we were down better than 600 points on the day. We managed to close down just under 500 - 494 points.  At that point, the first 2 days of the 4th quarter of 2019 were the weakest first 2 days of any quarter - not just a 4th quarter - but of any quarter going all the way back to 2008, which was the year the market imploded because of the '08 financial crisis. Weakness in Private Sector Jobs One of the data points that came out on Wednesday that may have been a contributing factor - but probably not - was the ADP employment number, which is an early look at the official numbers that came out today.  This is just the private sector, which is certainly weaker than the government sector, and I'm going to get into that when I discuss today's numbers later in the podcast. But, the estimate was for 152,000 jobs created in the private sector and we only got 135,000.  But, not only that, there was a downward revision to the prior month, from 195,000 to 157,000.  So, this was additional evidence of economic weakness that was weighing on the market. IPO's Cancelled Due to Insufficient Investor Demand Also, again we had the follow over from what I had pointed out on my podcast not only on Tuesday, but on Friday the prior week regarding the weakness in the newly publicly traded companies - money losing companies - the fact that some of these companies had to cancel their IPO's due to insufficient investor demand. All of that was weighing on the market and helped produce that sharp decline. ISM Non-Manufacturing Down A Lot - Not Just a Little Bit And when we got into the market on Thursday, the market had opened initially a little bit higher.  But then as soon as we got the ISM non-manufacturing number (remember, we had gotten a very weak manufacturing number and was part of the reason we had the big decline earlier in the weak) but now we got the ISM non-manufacturing number and this number was forecast to come in at 55.5.  This would have been a reduction in the 56.4 that we had for August.  But instead of going down a little bit, the number went down a lot - all the way down to 52.6.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances: The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5 The Dallas Money Show October 13-14 and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4 First Day of Q4 2019 Today was the first trading day of the 4th quarter of 2019.  And if today's action was a harbinger of things to come, it is going to be one difficult quarter for the bulls on Wall Street. In fact, when they rang the opening bell this morning, everybody was happy, the stock market was up, the dollar was up, gold was down again.  In fact, gold has had a pretty big correction since my last podcast. When You Live in Glass White Houses… Yesterday, gold saw a $25 decline; again, with a stronger dollar and a stronger stock market.  For some reason, I think investors were a little bit more optimistic over the last few days after my last podcast Donald Trump talked about - or there were some rumors that he was thinking about maybe de-listing Chinese companies from U.S exchanges, making it illegal or something for Americans to invest in China - which I thought was a very dangerous road for the President to go down. Remember, when you live in glass White Houses, you don't want to throw stones. Chinese Still Big U.S. Investors The United States benefits from a lot of direct investment from overseas, particularly China.  Chinese invest a lot in U.S. businesses; they're big buyers of U.S real estate, and, of course, they're still big holders of U.S. Treasuries. If the United States says, "Well, Americans can't invest in China." what happens if the Chinese return the favor?  I think we have a lot more to lose than they do. I think the following day or maybe over the weekend the President kind of backtracked away from that trial balloon and they said, "No, we're not considering that." So probably that was good news and a relief for the market that that wasn't going to happen.  Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Check out my podcast, "What it Means to be an American", Episode 265 Earthquake Hits Puerto Rico Last night, I was lying in bed, I wasn't asleep yet; I just finished watching television; my wife and I were still awake, and next thing we know, the house starts shaking. And it kept on shaking.  I couldn't believe I was in an earthquake. This was a decent-sized earthquake - it was over 6.0 on the Richter scale. The earthquake occurred in the ocean, but not too far from Puerto Rico.  I think it rattled a lot of the islands here in the Caribbean. I haven't felt an earthquake since I lived in California. To be honest, I never even considered earthquakes here in Puerto Rico.  I knew about hurricanes, but I really didn't think we would be hit by an earthquake - and we did.  Fortunately, it didn't do any actual damage; in fact, I don't think anything in Puerto Rico was damaged.  Of course, the big risk when you get earthquakes in the ocean is tsunamis - but that didn't happen.  In the meantime, I've got a tropical storm overhead as I am recording this podcast.  Tropical Storm Karen has arrived in Puerto Rico later than expected.  It was supposed to come this morning but it didn't get here until this afternoon, although "Karen" doesn't sound particularly menacing, and it's living up to its name. It's really just a little rain, not too much wind; so that's not bad. Disaster in the Cryptocurrency Markets The real disaster is not here in Puerto Rico with earthquakes and tropical storms; it's the disaster that is unfolding in the cryptocurrency markets.  We are seeing some real carnage - a real bloodbath over there. I think this is just getting started, because we've finally really broken down on the Bitcoin chart, although the biggest declines today are in the alt coins. Bitcoin is down about 13% right now. But this about the high that Bitcoin is been in the last half hour. We're trading up around $8500.  We did get as low as $8000; I think we maybe ticked below it briefly.  That means from the nearly $14000 high that's a better than 40% drop in the price of Bitcoin from that peak, which, by any definition constitutes a bear market.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Don’t miss my upcoming appearances: The Las Vegas Trading Conference, Oct. 4-5 The Dallas Money Show October 13-14 and the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4 These two videos were referenced in today's podcast: How government programs drive up college tuitions Is a college degree worth the cost? You decide Fed Proving Me Right As I surmised, when I recorded my podcast on Wednesday, it seems pretty clear that the Federal Reserve has already returned to quantitative easing.  And that didn't take long, because they just ended QT (quantitative tightening) and they've already begun QE. - Although, the Fed is not going to admit that that's what they're doing. Apart from proving me right, which was one of my forecasts from the very beginning, even before the Fed was talking about ending QE, I said they could never end it before they even started it. Monetary Roach Motel I had forecast what the Fed was going to do before they did it. And when they announced quantitative easing, not only did I say it was a mistake, but I said the Fed was checking us into a monetary roach motel from which we could never check out.  It was the delusion that we could check out - the Fed was able to convince the markets that it was a temporary policy and that they would only be doing it in an emergency, then they would unwind the policy and shrink their balance sheet and the market believed them. QE Plus Zero Interest Rates Equals Bigger Problem I didn't believe them, and I was warning everybody that the Fed was either lying or didn't know what they were talking about or foolish, but the markets bought into this nonsense.  So, clearly, if the Fed were going to go back to quantitative easing, they would basically be admitting that the policy was a failure. Because the policy was intended to be temporary, not permanent. If they have to do it again, then it proves that it wasn't temporary.  Again, what I said, by doing quantitative easing in conjunction with lowering interest rates to zero, they were simply taking a debt problem and making it much bigger by encouraging even more debt. So once you load up with debt, once you encourage everybody to lever up, then you can't pull the rug out from under them.Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy