Option Block 501: More Drama in FIT, VIX and GLD
Trading Block: Options market sees 50% chance of massive S&P plunge. Stocks may have rebounded from their recent lows, but the option market still implies a big chance that stocks plummet anew before the year is out. Earnings today after the bell: Fitbit, Inc., ATM Straddle: $2.90 - 18.3%, calls 2/1 over puts; stock nearly hit $52 last summer: Now a pale shadow of what it used to be. Earnings today before the bell: Dean Foods. Odd Block: Puts trade in Zoetis Inc. (ZTS), puts trade in Rio Tinto PLC (RIO), and puts trade in Prospect Captial Corp (PSEC). Strategy Block: Tosaw dicusses ways to construct a wheel trade. Listener Questions: Listener questions and comments Question from Alex - Thanks Mark for the funny intro of me and featuring my question. I felt honored to get my simple question dissected so well. I loved it! You started the discussion with "there are not that many scenarios to short long term puts as a way to enter into equity unless there is some extreme volatility distortion where the 1 year put is extremely bid from a volatility perspective". My follow up question is then: Does the 1 year LNKD Implied Volatility not qualify as a such "extreme volatility scenario distortion". Check attached screenshot from OptionXpress below. The highlighted region is when I shorted the 25 Delta Put and ATM Implied Vol is at its highest ever. Definitely I would suggest a boot camp on commission fees and slippage costs and why even with those it is still better to do shorter term vs longer term dark side trades. Cheers, Alex Putting it concisely: Vega, Theta, low commissions and slippage costs are working for me in this one. Around the Block: Earnings! Tuesday - Home Depot, Avis Budget Group, Caesars Entertainment, Coca Cola, Dreamworks, Macys, Office Depot Wednesday - Target, Salesforce.com Thursday - Best Buy, Sears, Anheuser- Busch, Gap, Gogo Inc., Herbalife, Kohls, Marriott Vacations Worldwide, SeaWorld Entertainment, Starwood Property Trust, Weight Watchers Friday - JC Penney Company, Hilton Worldwide It is fairly a heavy week as far as economic reports go including GDP and Consumer Sentiment. The market looks to keep the bullish rally going. Feb 23: Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales Feb 24: New Home Sales Feb 25: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims Feb 26: GDP, Consumer Sentiment