Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast to discuss what the Israel-Hamas war could mean for the global economy, the impact on oil prices, and the rise of antisemitism on American college campuses.   This episode was recorded on October 19.  Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.  An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards 0:00 Welcome back to the show, Jim Rickards 1:20 The big picture, according to Rickards  2:16 Horror of October 7  8:27 Israel’s response in Gaza  10:30 Egypt, Jordan unwilling to take in Palestinians  12:16 Ground invasion and logistics  13:45 A much more brutal, drawn-out and violent result  15:20 What this could mean for investors  21:00 A financial war  26:00 Greatest threat to the dollar 28:00 Ineffectiveness of sanctions  34:00 Antisemitism on college campuses 

Darius Dale (@DariusDale42), founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, joins Julia La Roche on episode 112.  In this episode, Darius presented his proprietary 42 Macro Weather Model to share his economic and market outlook. Growth in the real economy is expected to decelerate over the next 12 months, while inflation is reaccelerating.  Darius’ model predicts below-normal returns for the stock and bond markets over the next three months. It also suggests above-normal returns for the U.S. dollar and below-normal returns for commodities and Bitcoin. A key takeaway is that with so many negative indicators, cash is currently the preferred asset.  Darius also discussed the likelihood of a recession, citing that the most probable window for its onset is Q4 of 2023 to Q1 of 2024. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links:  42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter https://twitter.com/DariusDale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Darius Dale to the show  1:15 Macro view using the 42 Macro Weather Model  6:50 Recession outlook  8:45 Indicators of a broader breakdown in the business cycle  13:00 Inflation was going to bottom at a level inconsistent with 2% mandate 14:30 Rethinking expectations for inflation target  20:30 Fed outlook  26:44 Higher for longer and the duration of how long  28:49 Why we could have a worse recession than investors are anticipating  29:48 Fed won’t be able to do large-scale asset purchase programs that we’re used to 30:35 Fourth Turning empirical analysis  33:55 Powell  35:50 Where are we within The Fourth Turning?  38:00 Parting thoughts 

David Hay, co-CIO at Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack, joins Julia La Roche on episode 111. In this episode, Hay makes a case that the odds of a recession are going up, not down, with each passing day.  The conversation dives into the bond market, exploring the shift to a secular bear market and the implications this holds for the broader financial ecosystem. Elsewhere, Hay shares where he’s allocated and why he’s mildly bullish on energy. He also points out we have a supply problem, and we’re likely to experience an acute and lasting oil shortage. Links:  Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble Evergreen Gavekal: https://evergreengavekal.com/about-us/ David Hay: https://evergreengavekal.com/team/david-hay/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps:  0:00 Welcome David Hay to the show  1:20 Macro view  2:50 Odds of a recession are going up with each passing day  4:17 Misleading data  6:30 Higher for longer’s impact on bankruptcies  7:40 GDI recession  10:45 Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco  12:29 Structural bond bear market  15:27 Supply and demand in bond market  17:44 Hedge funds buying USTs with leverage / the basis trade  19:40 T-bills  21:26 A ‘transitory’ bond rally  25:30 The country is circling the drain  28:00 Bondholders are going to be the sacrificial lambs  29:20 Where do you want to be allocated  31:40 We’re going to have an oil supply problem  33:00 Parting thoughts

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the blog Marc To Market, joins Julia La Roche on episode 110. Chandler, who has three decades of experience in capital markets and foreign exchange, argues that the dollar trending higher since the end of the Great Financial Crisis is coming to an end. "It seems to me in the stock market, you need a new opinion, like every week or every two weeks, but the currency markets just trend for a long time. And I think that the dollar's rally is, if it's not over yet, it's nearly over," Chandler said. As of late, the dollar has been strong, but that's likely due to the Fed being more aggressive in raising rates and the U.S. economy looking better than the rest of the world. The Fed's tightening is likely coming to an end, and the economy weakening is likely to bring the dollar's rally to an end. Links: Marc to Market: http://www.marctomarket.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/marcmakingsense Bannockburn Global Forex: https://www.bannockburnglobal.com/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Learn more: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome Marc Chandler to the show 1:20 Macro view and forex market 3:30 Dollar likely peaked already 6:50 What's lifted the dollar is coming to an end 7:30 Headwinds for US economy 11:30 Dollar is overvalued 15:00 Currency misalignment creating opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify more to Europe/Japan 18:20 Recession 20:30 Government spending/ deficit 22:30 Wholesale/retail price for money 24:36 Why not let the business cycle play out? 29:27 Minksy moment? 30:30 Debt is a problem, but not yet 36:40 Biggest risk for Marc 40:36 Thoughts on crypto

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 109. In this episode, DiMartino Booth argues that the U.S. economy would already be in recession if it weren't for the government's spending. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps:  00:00 - Welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show  1:06 - Macro outlook on the economy, discussion on job market and revisions 3:56 U.S. economy is clearly in a recession if it weren’t for government spending  6:30 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and the higher for longer regime 9:20 An about-face for equity investors   11:46 - Conundrum for RIAs 15:22 - Biggest risk is in middle portion of commercial real estate and corporate debt 17:30 - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a passive investing bubble?  18:27 - Discussion on Federal Reserve's zero bound interest rate policy 22:30 - Geopolitical risks following an attack in Israel 24:30 - US deficit at wartime levels, fiscal responsibility and potential long-term consequences 26:30 - Conclusion

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108. In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot. Links: Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show  1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit  2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon 3:34 Commercial real estate risk  4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income  5:30 Commercial, not consumer  6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing  9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed  11:24 Landlords are a small business  13:00 Silent crisis 14:50 Impact on banks  16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive  17:30 A strange economic cycle  19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market  20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade 21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks 22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?  23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers  27:00 Parting thoughts 

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, the founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of The Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — joins Julia La Roche on episode 107 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and the Federal Reserve.  In this episode, Sahm noted that the economy is potentially at an inflection point, and we’ll know soon if we’re getting a soft landing or are headed in a slow grind that could lead us over the edge and into recession. At the moment, she’s in the 50-50 baseline case when it comes to recession. To be sure, Sahm is concerned about the cooling in the labor market. She noted, "Once things get going in a bad direction, they keep going.”  Throughout her career, Sahm has worked at the Federal Reserve, the White House, ad has advised Congress. She’s the creator of the  Sahm Rule, a reliable indicator of a recession based on the unemployment rate. The rule was developed as a trigger for automatically sending out relief like stimulus checks in a recession, taking the politics out of it.  Links: Stay-At-Home-Macro: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com X: https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm/ 0:00 Welcome Claudia Sahm  0:44 Potentially an inflection point  2:07 Labor market  3:40 What’s weighing on consumers?  6:30 Long and variable lags  10:03 Has the Fed done too much?  11:50 Risk of doing too much is aligned with the risk of doing too little  14:58 Fed’s inflation fight  19:02 Assessment of the consumer today  23:09 Great Recession  25:54 Sahm Rule  31:17 Are we in a recession according to the Sahm Rule?  32.22 Labor  36:00 Risk of a recession? 40:05 50/50 case of a recession  42:56 Housing  47:22 A decade Federal Reserve  53:00 Storytelling is the most important part of the forecasting  57:00 Groupthink at the Fed  1:01:12 Parting thoughts 

Dr. Harald Malmgren and Nicholas Glinsman, co-founders and partners of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, join Julia La Roche on episode 106 for a deep discussion on macro, geopolitics, politics, and the implications for financial markets. Links: Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/ “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf 0:00 Welcome Harald and Nicholas to the show  1:00 Harald Malmgren’s macro view  2:20 Huge debt situation worldwide, and growing U.S. budget deficit  3:30 Strong dollar, lots of disruption  4:55 U.S. Treasury Market is the ‘ultimate wrecking ball’  8:00 Malmgren-Glinsman’s call on China  10:00 Problems for the Treasury Market  11:19 Looking 3-months, 6-months, and a year out  15:00 10-year Treasury likely going north of 5  20:25 Implications of higher rates  24:19 Negative economic outlook doesn’t mean rates will come down 26:43 Stagflation/ where to invest in a stagflationary environment  37:20 Is it realistic to get back to a 2% inflation target?  42:00 When are we going to trim this fiscal monster?  43:30 The big risk today - the fiscal imbalance  49:00 Biden  53:58 Leadership  56:00 Message for Millennials  1:01:30 Hal Malmgren on political teamwork across parties  1:04:22 Parting thoughts 

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105. In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff. As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.   Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com. 0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show  0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research  2:23 Macro view today 4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down  6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy  8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy 11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year  14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%? 16:06 Higher for longer  18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months 20:00 Consumer  22:25 Markets  25:08 Bond market  32:00 Stock market  36:40 Opportunities in the market  39:15 Traditional 60/40  41:30 Parting thoughts 

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees just under $6 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 104 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion.  In this episode, Zook shares that he still sees stagflation ahead. In this environment, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets, particularly in energy and real estate. Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber. 0:00 Welcome Christopher Zook to the show 1:07 Macro view today  2:50 The Fed likely to maintain credibility  4:08 Inflation and stagflation  5:40 Stagflation impact on stocks and bonds  8:30 Entering into a lost decade  11:44 Passive investing v. Active investing  16:20 Dichotomy in the market  19:00 Fiscal picture in the US 22:19 Betting against subprime  22:53 Concern about the consumers’ spending habits 25:27 Investment opportunities  28:52 Commercial real estate  34:27 Energy

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential.  Links:  Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X? Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/ RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/ A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins  1:16 Macro view  2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt 5:00 Housing market at a stalemate  6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling”  8:50 Valuations  10:45 Purpose of raising rates  13:12 Only way out is a reckoning  13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing?  15:45 Bullish long-term  17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime  20:12 Burn The Boats book  25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back  31:09 Career  35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are  38:30 Opening up 41:30 Most important skills of a founder  42:45 Rex Ryan  46:15 Best part of the book 48:40 Parting thoughts 

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more. https://www.dayoneventures.com/ 0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show 1:08 Venture capital landscape today 2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage 4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom 7:45 Robotics 9:25 Correction for generative AI companies? 11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos 14:00 Valuations 19:00 Investment activity 20:50 Vetting companies 26:48 Public relations to venture capital 31:35 When to get a PR agency? 36:12 Changing media landscape 40:00 Exits 45:35 Meeting founders through social 48:40 Starting a VC fund

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101. 0:00 Welcome Larry to the show 1:00 Macro picture  2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising 3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation  5:32 Stagflation  9:20 One-year breakevens  10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI 14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market  18:40 Indexing creating a bubble  23:15 Regional bank risks  27:25 Buy into capitulation selling  29:17 Economic picture today  34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade 37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)  39:34 Zombies  42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value 47:00 Shift to stagflation 50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman (@BillAckman), CEO of Pershing Square Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 100 for an exclusive and wide-ranging conversation. In this episode, Ackman revisits the various eras of his investing career, from his first stock purchase as a Harvard Business School student to his bet against MBIA and his activist stake in Wendy’s. He also discusses his transition to a “quieter” phase of activist investing and his foray into tech investing with the recent addition of Google's parent company, Alphabet. Along the way, Ackman shares lessons and insights on a range of topics, including raising capital in the face of rejection, learning from mistakes, and the importance of optimism and free speech. Ackman also provides an update on the macroeconomic outlook, shares his thoughts on the 2024 presidential election, discusses the recent regional banking crisis, and more. 0:00 Welcome Bill Ackman to the show  0:25 A ‘self study’ in investing  1:30 The first stock Ackman purchased  4:00 Raising capital like ‘blind dating’  5:45 Willingness to go against ‘the system’  8:30 Origins of Ackman’s persistence  9:20 Incentives drive human behavior 11:30 Learning from mistakes/failure  12:50 Optimism  15:05 Why Ackman/Pershing Square survived the challenging years   17:50 Codifying the eight principles in stone  19:30 Three eras of Pershing Square 26:30 Rise of passive/indexing 31:10 Twitter/ free speech  34:10 Macro assessment  35:30 Longer-term risks to the economy  37:45 2024 election  39:40 Would Ackman ever run for office?  41:10 Regional banks  43:00 Buying Google/ impact of AI  48:06 $600 million to philanthropy  50:30 Parenting 

Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession. Links: https://www.axoniccap.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/ 0:00 Intro 0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp 2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession 4:19 American consumer 5:31 Equity markets 8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing 15:43 Vulnerabilities 18:08 Zombie companies 22:37 Fed outlook 26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation 27:50 Long and variable lags question

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 98, featuring a discussion on the macro environment. Rule, who has 50 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He's long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic. 0:00 Intro 0:59 Macro picture 2:30 Arithmetic of the deterioration in purchasing power 4:10 Rich Men North of Richmond 5:20 Rule’s savings losing purchasing power at about 7% compounded 7:00 Severe but survivable 10:45 What is the fair value of gold? 12:50 No one size fits all for how to own gold 15:20 Arithmetic around long bonds is lousy 19:40 Underlying economy has been amazingly strong 22:47 A richer world is good for everyone 23:40 Future for younger generations

Legendary trader Peter Borish, president of the Computer Trading Corporation, joins Julia La Roche on episode 97. In this episode, Peter shares his macro outlook, and why we’re in the early stages of a longer term rising rate cycle. He also revisits his time working with Paul Tudor Jones at Tudor Investment Corp, the 1987 stock market crash and its aftermath, and some of the lessons and principles he’s learned over the years.  Links:  https://twitter.com/pborish https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-borish-bb54119/ 00:00 Intro 0:43 Macro view  2:30 This really isn’t the 70s  4:55 More like post WWII  7:14 Tax rate 8:42 Debt 11:38 Implications of higher rates 13:50 We’ll see wages go up more 14:53 S&P likely to move down from here  16:10 Difference between cautious/bearish  17:15 Concern is making policy mistakes  18:30 More on the markets  21:03 Risk management  23:10 Learning from mistakes  25:00 You have to trade your own personality  27:30 Advice for young people  29:50 1987 Crash  35:00 Robin Hood Foundation 38:00 Assessment of New York City today  40:30 Return to office  42:00 Brady Commission  44:40 Paul Tudor Jones  48:30 Parting thoughts 

Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 96 to discuss what's happening in the bond market. Howell recently shared a piece on his Substack, "It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous." Read the piece here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-bonds-not-banks-that-look-dangerous Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro 1:02 Macro view today 2:26 Why is the bond market so important 6:40 Pressures in the bond market 10:15 Term premia 14:43 BRIC economies’ gold-backed currency 16:16 Who is going to want to buy the Treasuries? 19:00 Bond market is distorted 22:50 US dollar 27:30 Liquidity

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 95 to discuss her newest bestseller, "You Will Own Nothing."  Links:  You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth 0:00 Intro  1:00 World War F  4:19 Writing for the underdog  7:50 Social credit  13:50 Useful idiots  19:45 Cancel culture  21:55 ESG  27:00 Elon Musk  29:50 Housing  35:20 More institutions buying homes  39:30 Macro picture  44:40 What can the individual do to reclaim the ‘American Dream’? 

Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 94 to break down markets and the opportunities he sees in this current environment. Todd has been a CNBC contributor since 2010 and continues to provide actionable, insightful, and light-hearted commentary for CNBC.  He is known for blending technical and fundamental analysis to interpret the ever-changing market landscape to produce specific trading and investment ideas for CNBC viewers and his clients. Currently, he is one of the only CNBC contributors who manages his actual investment account live with full transparency on the ‘TradingNation’ web show.  He has appeared on various shows such as CNBC Fast Money Halftime show, Fast Money, Squawk Box, Power Lunch, Squawk Alley, Squawk on the Street, Money in Motion, and the CNBC Stock Draft. He started his career as a professional proprietary trader of NYSE listed stocks in San Diego, California in 2001, then moved to Connors Capital, A CTA and hedge fund in 2004, and then back east on Wall St with Forex.com / Gain Capital.  In that dual role, Todd wrote the widely followed Strategy of the Day research report, while trading for the parent company’s hedge fund GAIN capital during the 2008 financial crisis. Todd successfully guided his readers through that wild market time building enough of a following to launch his own research business TradingAnalysis.com in 2010. Since 2010, TradingAnalysis has grown to serve clients in over 100 countries as Todd and his team guide their clients through the markets by trading their actual live portfolios showing the good, bad, and the ugly. He is gearing up to launch his own wealth management business in 2021. Todd attended St Lawrence University while majoring in economics and competing on their Division I alpine ski racing team. He transferred out to focus on business at University at Albany, earning a Bachelors of Economics, where he continued his ski racing career. Follow Todd on Twitter @toddgordonTA 0:00 Intro 1:16 Macro setup today 2:25 New age of investing 4:30 Soundbites and hot takes 6:00 Bullish? 8:18 Interpretation of the yield curve 12:35 Disinflationary environments and stocks 15:07 Tech boom 20:00 Rally is broader than you think 23:07 Relationship between US yields and value/growth rotation 27:23 Stocks in a rising rate environment 31:07 What have the bears gotten wrong? 33:54 Elliott Wave, explained 38:05 Dow to double in the next five years? 41:00 Made a mistake from being too bearish? 42:30 Parting thoughts 46:35 Active v. passive

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93.  Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. Links:  Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734 0:00 Intro 1:21 Generational Theory  5:00 Generations arrive in patterns  8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime 11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997  13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts  15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic  16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning  20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy  21:18 Generational archetypes  27:43 Millennials as the “Hero”  33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s  39:00 An internal or external conflict?  44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning  49:00 Relationships  50:28 What keeps Neil up at night?  53:00 Optimistic about the future 

Milton Berg, CFA, the CEO and Director of Research of MB Advisors (https://miltonberg.com), joins Julia La Roche on episode 92 for a deep dive into his technical analysis and macro. Berg focuses on "Turning Point Analysis,” where he looks for turning point ends of trends. In this episode, Berg shared reasons for why he sees strong evidence that this market won't do well and the bull market may be ending and heading toward a significant correction. 0:00 Intro 0:37 Long-term big picture 6:27 Short-term big picture 8:54 Turning points in the market  11:00 No evidence of momentum. It’s an emotional feeling 21:30 Accelerations 27:02 Bank stocks and the bear market  35:40 Why he’s short right now  37:38 Gap down and gap up, explained  47:00 Price target for the S&P 500 50:00 Worried about dissing capitalism 

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy. Links:  The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/ Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/ 0:00 Intro / Background 2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making 3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong 4:30 The role of confidence  6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework  10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level  13:00 Executives discussing AI  14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant  15:35 The K-shaped recovery  17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower  18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences  20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today  24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election  28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?  31:00 Millennials’ sentiment  33:00 Real life moves us around  35:00 Music and the mood  38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon  39:30 Peak confidence?  40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven  41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”  44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme 47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”  50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”  53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession  55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator  

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 90 to share his macro outlook, his views on the U.S. dollar, and his latest venture — Market Reader — a startup providing real-time explanations of market movement for investors and advisors. Links Twitter: https://twitter.com/jnordvig Substack: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ Market Reader: https://marketreader.com/ Exante Data: https://www.exantedata.com/ 0:00 Intro 0:55 Macro picture 1:57 A turning point in inflation 4:10 Evidence of an inflection point 7:35 Market 8:30 Don’t see evidence of a dramatic tip in the economy 10:00 Housing not crashing 12:40 A brief history of dollar hatred 19:00 Impact of weakening dollar on investments 20:25 Artificial Intelligence and building Market Reader 24:33 Started Market Reader pre ChatGPT 26:55 AI and the macro outlook 28:48 Two trends that are worrisome 31:40 Will Fed policy have to consider AI? 33:43 No cuts any time soon 35:13 Positives of AI for a researcher 37:50 Impact of AI on certain finance jobs 42:00 Founding a startup 45:00 Market Reader examples 48:49 How Market Reader has helped Jens' productivity 51:20 Study 52:52 Parting thoughts

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@BiancoResearch), the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche again for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment. In this episode, Bianco shares why he thinks we've seen a bottoming in inflation and that it will start to creep back up. He also explained why he doesn't see the Fed pivoting because the inflation rate is likely to be problematic. Elsewhere, Bianco explains why he's not necessarily in the recession camp. 0:00 Intro  1:00 Macro view  4:20 That’s not “TINA”  6:35 Unusual market performance this year  10:29 Thoughts on passive investing 14:00 On AI: Overhype the short-term, underestimate the long-term  18:00 Impact of AI on finance 25:05 Might not be in the recession camp  29:40 Did something already break?  32:34 Sticky inflation  36:00 Labor market is very different from what anyone thinks it is right now  43:00 Impact on cities, commercial real estate, public transportation  51:33 Regional bank risk  55:15 Energy  1:01:00 Parting thoughts 

Dr. Edward I. Altman, Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, New York University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 88 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle and the global phenomenon of zombie companies. Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management. Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis. Links:  Where We Are In The Credit Cycle: https://creditorcoalition.org/special-feature-professor-ed-altman-on-where-we-are-in-the-credit-cycle/ Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/ Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/ NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman 0:00 Intro  0:49 Where are we in the credit cycle?  2:43 5 indicators (Default Rates; Recovery Rates, Required Rates of Return; Distressed Ratio; and Liquidity)  10:00 Is the market underestimating the near-term risk of defaults? 15:50 We’ve reached an inflection point  18:00 Historical default rates, benign credit cycles, and recession periods in the US 22:00 Warning of a great credit bubble in 2007  25:15 Why have defaults been so low?  28:20 Scenario of 10% default rates in credit markets? 33:30 Zombies and the Z-Score 39:40 Zombieism globally has increased from 1.5% to about 7%  44:00 Implications of keeping zombie companies alive  48:30 Why does the US have so many zombie companies?  50:00 Triple Cs risk of default  53:48 Bankruptcy v. Bailout 1:01:00 Bankruptcy reforms and impact on zombies  1:04:25 Zombies only increased slightly during Covid  1:06:30 What are people asking Dr. Altman on his lecture tour?  1:08:36 Starting a fintech called Wiser Funding  1:12:08 Parting thoughts 

Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture. Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future. 0:00 Intro 1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy  2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession  4:33 The magnificent seven  6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months  7:10 Inflation  9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing  10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now  12:30 Opportunities, energy sector  15:30 Thoughts on AI   17:50 Themes  18:40 The end of globalization  22:11 Labor market  24:17 Hard or soft landing  26:00 Regional banks  27:48 Energy sector 32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities)  37:24 TINA  40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100 42:00 Career in financial markets 

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry (@Hendry_Hugh) joins Julia La Roche again for an unfiltered conversation on macro, markets, Bitcoin, the Fed, and more.  Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks. These days, Hendry is a luxury hotelier on St. Barts, where he spends his time surfing and still thinking about macro. He also hosts a weekly podcast called "Acid Capitalist" and shares his views on Instagram, Twitter, and Substack. 0:00 Intro 1:18 Macro picture, ‘my imagination is as dark as it was in 2007’ 5:00 “I’m fearful”, already in recession as we speak  8:18 Want to own equities right now  12:30 Bitcoin  15:00 Sitting with cash, waiting to buy  17:58 Been in a depression since 2008  22:30 Banking sector  27:30 Eurodollar system  32:00 Entrepreneurial dream has been replaced  34:50 Inflation Reduction Act is actually smart  38:00 A recession of a similar magnitude to 2008-2009  42:47 The five who know  45:30 Music and charts  47:30 Twitter 49:23 Parting thoughts 

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, geopolitics, and the rising threat of China.  0:00 Intro  0:35 ‘Out of body experience’ meeting with former central bankers, academics 3:30 Fed is ‘completely out of touch with reality’  5:30 This has nothing to do with the Phillips Curve  6:58 Chain-weighting inflation  9:57 Frictions in society  12:15 Heading toward a recession  14:15 Commercial real estate  19:22 Yellen’s trip to China 26:00 Wall Street greed  21:03 Is the business community waking up?  26:20 Exposure to China 28:00 Risk of invading Taiwan  30:00 Talk about what Xi Jinping says  34:00 Should be ringing alarm bells about China  38:00 Need peace through strength  41:00 Economic War Department is needed 44:00 We sit at a hinge in history right now 

Michael Green (@profplum99), Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 84 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market. In this episode, Mike Green breaks down some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they lead to the current market phenomena. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder. Follow Mike on Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ 0:18 When are we going to see a recession?  1:06 In the recession camp  2:40 Labor is bifurcated  4:55 Student loan debt  8:00 Implications of AI  13:55 Markets and the implications of passive investment strategies  18:10 Creating an asset bubble  21:57 What happens when the selling starts?  24:00 Driving a car uphill with no brakes  28:20 Growth of passive  33:58 Inelasticity of the markets  36:20 The Fed  42:22 Operating off fantastically outdated theories  45:00 Downside of these strategies  49:30 Narratives in the markets  54:00 Parting thoughts

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb), the author of “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile," joins episode 83 of The Julia La Roche show alongside veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott), author of “Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions In the New Age of Crisis.”  “Chaos Kings,” which features Taleb, recounts the story of Universa Investments, a Miami-based investment firm specializing in risk mitigation, deploying a tail-risk hedging strategy to limit losses from an outsized market event, like a Black Swan. Taleb is the Distinguished Scientific Advisor at Universa. Led by Mark Spitznagel, Universa is among the best-performing investment managers of the last 15 years, reaping massive gains from market crashes. During the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Universa delivered a stunning 4,000% return during the first quarter when markets sharply sold off. The firm has posted a 15-year average annual return on capital north of 100%. 0:00 Show open 1:00 Chaos Kings story  6:40 A problem with infrequent but large losses   9:45 Precautionary Principle  12:29 Tail risk hedging  15:30 Flaws of modern finance  17:17 Mark Spitznagel learning to “love to lose”  19:00 Fragilities, hidden risks, big picture macro environment  23:43 Addressing misconceptions around Black Swans  25:30 Optionality  30:16 Experience and execution of the strategy  31:49 Black Swans v. Dragon Kings  34:30 Predicting an event is one thing; benefitting is another thing 36:00 Sornette’s Dragon Kings  38:50 Universa’s 4,000% gain  41:45 Getting to know Nassim Taleb  46:01 Rethinking investing  49:01 New age of crisis  54:40 Parting thoughts 

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian), Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 83 to discuss his forecast for the market and economy. Hunter, who’s been in markets for 50 years, is calling for the end of a 41-year bull market. He expects the market will continue to melt up, forecasting the S&P peak at 6,000 to 7,000 before a global bust.  He’s also bullish on gold, calling for $3,000 by the end of the year. He also made a case for why gold could soar to $20,000 in the decade's second half.  0:00 Intro  0:40 Becoming a contrarian  2:40 Macro view  5:18 Stock market is one of the best leading indicators  8:40 What is the market forecasting?  11:22 Another melt up in the market  16:39 Calling for the end of a 41-year bull market 18:24 Economic and market cycles  20:17 Global bust forecast for 2024 23:05 Forecasting S&P peaking at 6,000-7,000, before 80% drop 29:00 Deflation 34:30 Bullish gold, calling for gold $3,000 this year, $20,000 second half of the decade 41:00 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar  44:00 Treasuries  47:00 The debt is ‘a giant Ponzi scheme’ 49:20 Challenge to the thesis  52:30 Parting thoughts  

Steve H. Hanke (@Steve_Hanke), professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. Two years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. Hanke thinks the inflation story is over, and a recession is likely on the way.  Read “Did Lockdowns Work?” Here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Perspectives-_1_Did-lockdowns-work__June_web.pdf The Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Score: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com/ 0:00 Open 0:47 Money supply drives the economy 3:00 Inflation story is basically over  4:49 Economic picture around the world  5:25 Inflation is a local problem 7:02 The Fed has been a complete disaster  12:13 One-to-one linkage in change in money supply and inflation  13:00 Path to becoming a Monetarist  15:00 Why doesn’t the Fed pay attention to the quantity theory of money  18:24 Recession  20:47 Preparing for a recession  22:18 Long-term bullish on gold  27:29 Covid lockdowns biggest policy mistake in modern times

Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country. Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/ Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf 0:00 Show open 1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman 1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds 2:28 Harald Malmgren  5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade  6:25 Assessment of macro environment  7:24 The Fed  9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate  15:00 Liquidity 18:00 Liquidity impact 23:30 China  25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model  29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China  34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country  37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult  43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China  46:40 China Is The Next Japan  51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade”  55:30 EV cars 58:00 Parting thoughts

Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund), the CEO of Puerto Rico-based wealth management firm Santiago Capital and the creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, returns to the podcast for episode 79. Brent, who believes we’re heading for a currency crisis, is the creator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, a framework he developed to explain how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out. He explained how the world was flooded with liquidity thanks to extraordinary monetary policies following the Global Financial Crisis. The Dollar Milkshake is a simplified way to demonstrate how capital — all of the liquidity that makes up the “milkshake” — would flee the rest of the world and get sucked up by the U.S. Dollar (the straw) and U.S.-based markets creating a myriad of problems globally.   During this conversation, Brent explains his Dollar Milkshake Theory and what’s changed since publicly sharing his thesis five years ago. Brent weighed in on the de-dollarization narrative and why he expects the U.S. dollar to go higher. He also made a case for investing in gold.  0:00 Show Open  1:22 Welcome Brent Johnson  2:04 Macro framework  2:57 Heading toward a sovereign debt and currency crisis  4:04 Rate hikes will likely pinch economy in back half of the year 4:50 The Dollar Milkshake Theory, explained  6:52 Why we’ll likely see easy money again 7:45 “This is not a story that ends well”   10:00 Has the Dollar Milkshake Theory changed in 5 years? 13:42 Last year solidified our thesis  17:37 Catalysts for a higher dollar 19:19 Credit crunch  21:43 Geopolitical concerns  22:40 De-dollarization  29:49 A blowback from rate hikes?  35:00 Headlines don’t match reality  37:33 Debt ceiling short-term and long-term implications  44:14 Why is the Fed continuing to hike?  48:20 Why the Fed will pivot  50:05 Regional banks  52:52 Owning physical gold as an insurance policy  55:05 Cash for optionality  56:56 Camino de Santiago  1:01:01 Parting thoughts 

Zurich-based author and investor Guy Spier (@GSpier), the founder and CEO of Aquamarine Capital, joins Julia La Roche one episode 78. In 2008, Guy and his friend Monish Pabrai bid just over $650,000 for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. That meal with the Oracle of Omaha was a transformative experience for Guy, which he wrote about in his book, “The Education of a Value Investor,” which has sold more than 40,000 copies and has also been translated into Hebrew, German, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Mandarin and Spanish. Guy completed his MBA at the Harvard Business School, class of 1993, and holds a First Class degree in PPE (Politics, Philosophy, and Economics) from Oxford University, where he studied at Brasenose College with British Prime Minister David Cameron. After completing his MBA, Guy started the Aquamarine Fund, an investment vehicle inspired by the original 1950s Buffett partnerships and run with a close replication of the original Buffett partnership rules. The focus is on investing for long-term capital appreciation and capital preservation by running a portfolio of equity investments with the goal of acquiring companies with outstanding long-term economics at a reasonable price and where there is a sufficient margin of safety between the company’s market price and its intrinsic value. Typical investors include high net-worth individuals, family offices, and private banks. 0:00 Show open 1:50 Welcome, Guy Spier 3:00 Started as a Gordon Gekko wannabe, found a ‘lifeline’ through Buffett 6:13 Reading about Warren Buffett 9:47 The pilgrimage to Omaha 11:00 Power of sending thank-you notes 17:00 Handwritten notes from Buffett 18:09 Bidding on lunch with Buffett 22:30 Lunch with Buffett was “transformational.” 27:44 The inner scorecard 30:00 Deep fear ahead of meeting Buffett 34:06 How much does the macro matter? 37:28 Siren songs of the hyped stocks 40:25 Writing with William Green 44:26 Why he changed his mind about not talking to company management 49:20 New investment process checklist items 54:15 Debt 57:10 Buffett spends time thinking about the downside 1:01:20 Content diet for investing 1:08:40 Surrounding yourself with a mastermind group

Harold Bradley, a long-time investment manager and chief investment officer, joins Julia La Roche on episode 77 to discuss why Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have distorted the role of equities markets in capital formation while posing systemic risks. Bradley has broad and deep experience in mutual funds, foundations and endowments, exchanges, and private equity partnerships, including venture capital and hedge funds. His experience also encompasses investments in farmland, metals and mining, futures and options, and a track record of successful engagement with venture-backed technology and FinTech companies, including W.R. Hambrecht's OpenIPO, Euronet Worldwide, StarMine Corp (sold to Reuters) and Archipelago, LLC (IPO). In 1982, Bradley introduced first of a kind cash-settled stock index futures contract in the Value Line Composite Index while at the Kansas City Board Trade before purchasing a membership and trading for five years on the floor. In 1988, he was hired at Twentieth Century, now American Century, as the first equity trader, and built a globally recognized trading operation over the next ten years. He was the lead portfolio manager of small-cap growth funds from 2003 to 2007. He was later appointed Chief Investment Officer of aggressive growth strategies before being named President of American Century Ventures in 1999, which invested $63 million in businesses likely to disrupt the mutual fund industry. From 2003 to 2007, he managed American Century Tomorrow and a team of software engineers and developers who used artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, inference engines, and pattern recognition to develop manager compliance systems and quantitative investment strategies for American Century growth mutual funds managing $10B. The American Century trading desk received global recognition as an innovator of electronic trading techniques and protocols, including the Financial Information Exchange (FIX) Protocol steering committee that created open source standards for order, trade and settlement instructions between investment firms, brokers and exchanges in global equities and foreign exchange trading. Throughout his career, Bradley delivered Congressional testimony on stock market regulation, electronic trading, soft dollars, decimalization of stock prices, and ETFs. As Chief Investment Officer of the Kauffman Foundation from 2007 to 2012, he co-authored a vital research paper with Robert Litan highlighting risks to market stability from lax regulation of ETFs. He also co-authored widely-cited papers on subpar venture capital fund returns, with recommended best practices. He's been interviewed by CNBC, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Read Harold Bradley's October 2011 testimony on ETFs here: https://www.etf.com/docs/Bradley_Testimony_10-19-11_SII.pdf 0:00 Open 1:21 Harold Bradley 2:15 Accidental investor 3:00 Agricultural commodities reporter 5:43 A major structural shift 6:45 Pace of change 7:50 Wheat pit to stocks 10:29 1987 crash 13:04 Black Monday blamed on portfolio insurance. ETFs 'a form of portfolio insurance' 13:45 20 Building trading operation 16:30 Electronic trading 21:15 Fees 22:40 Flawed system was a bug, not a feature 23:01 Soft dollars 28:59 Testified before Congress six times 30:10 Risk in ETFs 32:00 Drawback to mutual funds 35:12 Why did ETFs start 38:22 Decimalization 40:30 How D.C. works 43:00 ETFs are presented as a passive investment, but they're not 48:30 KRE 53:29 ETFs have instant liquidity, but the component securities within an ETF aren't immediately liquid 57:00 Gold/silver ETFs 1:00:45 Margin lending 1:03:18 How are ETFs distorting markets and the systemic risk they pose 1:06:00 Undermining price discovery 1:10:38 Bubbles 1:11:50 AI next ETF craze 1:13:00 Punishing good management 1:17:00 Investing today 1:20:00 Investing challenges 1:22:54 Why market won't go down? 1:27:00 Fragile markets 1:28:00 ETF risk likely won't go away 1:34:00 Markets today

Herb Greenberg (@HerbGreenberg) is the editor of the Empire Financial Daily e-letter, Herb Greenberg's QUANT-X System, and Empire Real Wealth. Previously, he was the co-founder of Pacific Square Research and Greenberg Meritz Research & Analytics – both independent, short-biased investment research firms. Greenberg spent more than 40 years as a financial journalist at some of the country's leading newspapers, websites, and broadcast media, where he covered almost every industry. He served as senior stocks commentator at CNBC and was a financial correspondent at the Chicago Tribune. He also spent 10 years as the daily business columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle, during which time he started his five-year run as Fortune's monthly Against the Grain columnist and was the morning business reporter for San Francisco's KRON-TV. When the Internet and online media were still emerging, Greenberg was one of the first mainstream journalists to make the shift online, when he became senior columnist at TheStreet. He later shifted to the same role at MarketWatch. When Dow Jones bought out MarketWatch, he added a weekend investor column for the Wall Street Journal to the mix. Earlier in his career, Greenberg was a reporter at Crain's Chicago Business and a business reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He also spent a year as an analyst at a risk arbitrage firm. Greenberg holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Miami and completed the Herbert J. Davenport Fellowship at the University of Missouri. 0:00 Show Open 1:54 Welcome Herb Greenberg 2:40 Wanted to be a radio disc jockey, turned out to be a business journalist 4:06 Getting hooked on reporting  5:40 Path to the University of Miami  6:00 Late bloomer in journalism career  9:00 From Miami to St. Paul 10:25 Herb’s big break at Crain’s (the “bootcamp” of his career) 14:00 ‘Golden era’ of business journalism  15:08 Herb wrote the ‘original Business Insider’ column 18:08 The story Herb never talks about  22:00 State of business journalism today  24:44 Stories  27:14 Assessment of the markets and the economy  28:44 Paying the price for ridiculously low rates  30:00 Discrepancy between what’s real and the data  31:16 Markets are messy  32:55 Wish I had been more aggressive in funding 401k and IRA 34:55 Best question anyone has ever asked me  37:57 Family office analysts are happier than hedge fund analysts  42:00 Red flags  46:00 Silicon Valley Bank, regional bank failures 49:00 The ETF Monster https://www.cnbc.com/2010/09/13/man-vs-machine-the-etf-monster.html 51:30 Blaming the short-seller narrative  53:10 Concept of avoiding loss 53:50 ChatGPT is the ‘new weather’ on earnings calls 58:00 Longevity 

Mike Maloney (@mike_maloney), author of Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver and founder and CEO of GoldSilver.com, joins Julia La Roche on episode 75 to discuss his newest book and latest warning that an economic storm is coming that will dwarf the 2008 global financial crisis and why we could see the unleashing of a massive bull market in gold and silver. You can buy Mike’s newest book, The Great Gold And Silver Rush Of The 21st Century here: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Gold-Silver-Rush-Century/dp/B0BP3HW5HJ You can read Chapters 3 and 4 of The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st here: ⁠https://ggsr21.com/online-chapters/⁠ You can buy Mike's first book Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver here: https://www.amazon.com/Guide-Investing-Gold-Silver-Financial/dp/1937832740/ 0:00 Show open 1:30 Welcome Mike Maloney 2:56 Mike says the new book is not easy to find on Amazon 4:00 Macro picture today — the world is drowning in debt 5:59 ‘An evil monetary system’ 7:20 ‘You have been monetized’ 13:00 When we used gold  14:29 Modern monetary system based on ‘fraud, theft, and enslavement,’ says Mike Maloney  17:00 ‘Unless it stores value, it’s not money. Period.’  17:15 Money v. Currency  22:12 A monetary system that’s ‘an illusion'  24:00 ‘On a path toward an implosion’  26:00 CBDCs  27:58 Central Banks buying gold  28:47 China and gold  33:00 A bigger financial crisis than 2008?  35:00 ‘The Almost Everything Bubble’ and ‘The Bernanke Bust’  39:00 Open Market explained  48:33 Warping the economy  50:35 Interest in gold and silver  53:00 US dollar  54:00 Trapped in an ultra-complex system  56:26 Taxpayer takes a loss  59:00 Benefits of owning precious metals during a meltdown  1:02:50 Gold and silver could soar 

Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 74 for a deep dive into macro, the regional banking crisis, inflation dynamics, and more. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues. Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions. Bob holds a BA in History and Science from Harvard. 0:00 Intro 1:43 Welcome Bob Elliott  2:27 Macro picture  3:30 Many people haven’t experienced a typical macro cycle in their careers 4:48 Income-led cycle, not a credit-led cycle  6:33 Areas that aren’t sensitive to rise in rates 9:33 Banking crisis  9:54 Not like 2008 13:30 Not a credit problem. It’s a policy problem.  16:00 The bank run issue  19:00 We’ve entered a point in the crisis where the ineffective policy framework is creating the instability  20:10 Bank runs are self-reinforcing  21:00 Speculators creating sizable moves in banking stocks  23:00 Best way to deal with banking crisis  25:35 Impact from the Fed’s policies  29:18 Commercial real estate risk  32:55 Globalization  36:16 Disconnect between the market and the Fed  38:42 Higher for longer most probable  40:20 Paths that align with the bond market pricing  42:30 Likelihood of getting back to the 2% inflation target  44:32 Inflation entrenchment  46:20 Risk Fed faces with inflation  47:46 Wage inflation  48:50 Raising prices and not seeing demand destruction  51:33 Teaching macro 

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 73 to discuss the failure of First Republic Bank, the Federal Reserve’s role in the spate of bank failures, and why we should expect more failures ahead.  In this episode, Whalen outlines why thee will be a repricing across the banking industries as banks have to raise deposit rates to get closer to T-bills, but many banks can’t do that. As a result, he expects that the Fed will have to drop rates before the end of the year or risk more bank failures.  0:00 Intro  1:41 Welcoming Chris Whalen  2:22 The false narrative around First Republic’s failure  3:14 The Fed panicked and started excessive open market intervention in 2019 4:09 Outliers in banking are the ones going down  5:02 It’s just like the 1980s  5:48 If banks don’t reprice, they’re not going to make it 6:20 The Fed likely didn’t recognize this existential risk  7:00 Fed buying MBS was a terrible mistake  7:47 Monetary policy is implemented in the bond market  8:11 Why was the Fed buying MBS? It’s dangerous. 10:19 Not surprised by bank failures 11:45 Most banks are insolvent  12:45 Weaker banks will get picked on, but larger banks could go down 13:36 Bank of the Ozarks successfully raised more deposits  14:00 Powell will have to drop rates before end of the year or we’ll have more bank failures  16:38 Not a failure of supervision  17:24 Where is the blame placed?  18:50 All banks are going to be vulnerable  19:50 Net Interest Margin is going to get squeezed  20:45 How many more bank failures can Powell and Yellen survive?  22:41 Different from 2008?  24:00 Impact or rate hikes  25:11 Fed raised too far, too fast, and left the banks with big losses 26:40 Commercial real estate risk  29:33 Powell could lose control of the situation if he doesn’t talk to Congress and the public about the situation 

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees around $5 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 72 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion.  In this episode, Zook shares that a recession is coming, and it’s “going to be deeper and probably longer than people think.” He adds that we’ll have a “manufactured recession,” where inflation is running so hot that the Federal Reserve has to raise rates fast to slow down inflation, forcing the economy into a recession. Moreover, he points out that markets believe the Fed will start cutting rates by the end of the year, something Zook does not expect to happen.   In these types of environments, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets or persistent assets that perform well, even if his hypothesis is found to be true.  Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber. 0:00 Intro 2:12 Welcoming Christopher Zook to the show 2:50 Beginnings in investing  3:43 Trading commodities to pay for college 4:40 Reading about traders  5:55 Managing risk extremely carefully  7:20 Starting own firm  8:20 Managing money at age 22  8:50 Set goal to start firm in 10 years  9:50 Tony Robbins  10:40 The bigger the way, the bigger the try  14:00 Zook’s “why”  16:20 CAZ Investments structure and focus  18:36 Thematic approach  20:30 Betting against subprime housing  25:00 Macro outlook 25:12 Meme stock bubble  26:23 It takes longer than people think to reconcile dislocations  27:07 We haven’t seen true dislocation yet  27:40 Recession is coming and it will be deeper and longer than people think  28:08 A manufactured recession  29:00 I’ll be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year 30:06 More of a 2-3 year recession  31:00 Disconnect between the Fed and the market  33:20 Be greedy when others are fearful  33:54 Stagflation  34:34 Worst economic regime for financial assets  38:13 Opportunities  40:20 Themes right now  41:09 Cord-cutting  41:40 Opportunity in sports teams, media rights 43:55 Themes that exist in real estate today  45:40 Stress from higher rates will force refinancing  46:45 Why we haven’t seen panic selling yet  47:45 Every sector of real estate will be stressed  50:40 U.S. Dollar outlook  53:39 U.S. debt levels are terrifying  56:29 Growth of private assets  57:04 Opportunity in GP stakes 

Omeed Malik (@RealOmeedMalik), founder and CEO of Farvahar Partners, a boutique merchant bank and broker/dealer which invests partner capital into growth businesses and acts as a liquidity provider of private placements on behalf of companies and institutional investors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 71 to share what he sees as an emerging parallel economy in the U.S. that’s in stark contrast to ESG. Omeed is the chairman and CEO of a SPAC called Colombier Acquisition Corp. that is taking PublicSq., a marketplace for “pro-America business and consumers,” public later this year. He also started a fund called 1789 Capital to provide “venture and growth capital to companies building the next era of American prosperity.”  Prior to starting his own firm, Omeed was a Managing Director and the Global Head of the Hedge Fund Advisory Business at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Omeed was also the founder and head of the Emerging Manager Program within the Global Equities business. In this capacity, Omeed was charged with selecting both established and new hedge funds for the firm to partner with and oversaw the allocation of financing/prime brokerage, capital strategy, business consulting and talent introduction resources. Before joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Omeed was a Senior Vice President at MF Global, where he helped reorganize the firm’s distribution platform globally and developed execution and clearing relationships with institutional clients. An experienced financial services professional and securities attorney, Omeed was a corporate lawyer at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP working on transactional matters in the capital markets, corporate governance, private equity and bankruptcy fields. Omeed has also worked in the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Omeed received a JD, with Honors, from Emory Law School (where he serves on the Advisory Board) and a BA in Philosophy and Political Science, Cum Laude, from Colgate University. He holds Series 7, 63, 3, 79, and 24 registrations.  Omeed is a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Centennial Society Member of the Economic Club of New York and a Chairman’s Circle Member of the Milken Institute. Omeed is a Contributing Editor and minority owner of The Daily Caller. 0:00 Intro 2:06 Welcoming Omeed Malik 2:50 From D.C. to corporate law to Wall Street 3:30 Started as a speechwriter in D.C.  4:11 Working for Jon Corzine at MF Global 5:12 Launching Farvahar in 2018, advising founders 5:38 New opportunity in a new economy called the “patriot economy”  6:33 D.C. is a place where you get a lot of power, but not money 7:20 The country has changed 8:05 No longer identifying as a Democrat 8:33 2016 election of Trump 9:12 Rise of China  11:33 Leaving the Democratic Party  14:15 Tulsi Gabbard  16:22 China is the most significant geopolitical threat in my lifetime  20:16 ‘Red America’ is a huge TAM  21:02 ESG is a marketing scam  23:00 ESG backlash  26:20 Opportunity for a parallel economy focused on ‘EIG’ (Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Growth) 28:30 A $7T opportunity  33:00 A bifurcated economy  34:30 Taking PublicSq. public via SPAC 35:00 Bud Light Dylan Mulvaney backlash led to spike in search for alternative beer 36:30 Scratching the surface of the opportunity  38:40 Changes on a personal level 40:00 TikTok a ‘Trojan Horse’ in a modern-day Opium War  41:00 Evisceration of the middle class 42:00 Ceding liberty when you work for a large corporation  44:41 Need to reevaluate the relationship between the U.S. and China  51:27 Optimistic for the future of the U.S. 53:00 Big Tech’s “Devil’s bargain”  55:00 Impact on relationships 

Long-time macro investor Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, returns to the pod for episode 70 and a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, the economy, the banking crisis, problems plaguing commercial real estate, the U.S. Dollar, gold and more. In this episode, Merk points out how the economy is a mess. He also explains that those in the “soft landing” camp are ignoring “the big elephant in the room,” which is the bank balance sheets exposed to interest rate risk and commercial real estate. He later adds that the Fed’s actions are converting an acute problem into a chronic problem, where banks with holes in their balance sheets will lend less, which is a headwind to growth.  Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. 0:00 Intro 1:50 Welcome Axel Merk 2:22 Background in macro 3:32 Deep dives into central banks  4:00 The Fed is higher for longer  4:53 Big elephant in the room are the banks  6:02 Banking crisis is still here 8:40 Banking system limping along  10:38 Policymakers will bend the rules  11:29 People will invest based on next bailout as opposed to fundamentals  13:00 Commercial real estate  15:22 How to fix banks  20:07 Moral hazard?  21:30 Banking is risky  23:22 SVB depositors 29:00 Converting acute problems into chronic problems 30:00 Inflation 34:00 Stagflation a longer more persistent issue 48:00 Dedollarization  51:47 Risk of people moving out of the dollar is more than theoretical  56:41 Debt ceiling fight  1:01:01 Capitalism 

Joseph Wang (@fedguy12), the CIO of Monetary Macro and a former senior trader on the Open Markets Desk, joins Julia La Roche on episode 69 for a wide-ranging conversation on the monetary system, macro economy, and recent banking panic.  Wang is also the author of Central Banking 101, which is now an Amazon best-seller, and operates Fedguy.com, a blog on developments in the financial markets. During this episode, Wang said it’s almost inevitable that the U.S. will have a decade of persistently high inflation. He also mentioned that this trend is difficult to combat and is driven mainly by the culture and politics of the era. According to Wang, we are in the early stages of the inflationary cycle. 0:00 Introduction 1:40 Welcoming Joseph Wang on the show 2:11 From practicing law to trading on the Open Markets Desk 3:20 Practicing law is boring 4:02 Graduating in 2008  5:38 Open Markets Desk at the Fed  7:02 Central Banking 101  8:26 Misconceptions around the monetary system  10:50 Disconnect between school and real-life in macro 11:58 Commercial banks create money out of thin air  13:49 Eurodollar system  16:42 Eurodollar futures market  19:08 Market is fighting the Fed  20:17 Eurodollar banking  21:33 De-dollarization 24:00 There aren’t a lot of good alternatives to the U.S. Dollar 25:00 What it takes to be a reserve currency  25:45 Weaponization of the U.S. Dollar  26:58 Bitcoin  28:06 Will the U.S. Dollar lose its reserve status in our lifetime?  28:47 Implications of the U.S. dollar losing its global reserve status  30:33 Inflation will be a lot higher than we are used to  31:08 Big driver of inflation is the culture and politics of the era 34:27 Macro outlook  35:46 Demographic changes 39:48 Banking crisis is over  44:42 Intervention during the banking crisis  49:19 Is banking safer for depositors?  50:15 Fed is in inflation-fighting mode  53:38 Parting thoughts

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins Julia La Roche on episode 68 to discuss where we are in the changing world order, the macroeconomic outlook, and the rising tensions between the U.S. and China. Dalio revisited his thesis from his best-selling book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail." The investor outlined three significant forces, including enormous debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the U.S., due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.) and the existing world order. Dalio points out that the last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. 0:00 Intro 1:52 Introducing Ray 2:14 Macro picture 2:56 3 big forces shaping the world 5:14 2 other big influences 7:20 Tracking the typical cycle 7:50 We're in stage 5 when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict 10:20 U.S. and China approaching greater risk of War 11:02 Debt problem 12:57 If you mark-to-market bonds at existing rates, you have a lot of financially hurt entities worldwide 13:35 Silicon Valley Bank is a 'canary in the coal mine' 18:00 Political internal fighting 19:45 Emergence of populism 21:41 The cycle in the U.S. since 1945 23:45 Over-indebtedness and increasing wealth gaps 25:38 Spend more than we earn, in debt, and large wealth, opportunity, and values gaps 28:01 Can we avoid the decline? 28:41 If Ray Dalio were president… 30:16 If you worry, you don't have to worry. 31:22 U.S.-China relationship 35:00 The redline 36:40 Brinksmanship 37:15 Risk of investing or doing business in China 40:00 World order breakdown 41:33 The bifurcation 43:00 'I know I'm scaring people…' 44:40 The biggest risk on Ray's mind 45:54 'One thing Democrats and Republicans are united on is anti-China.' 49:30 U.S. Treasuries 51:42 Portfolio construction 54:24 Diversify internationally 55:58 Status of the U.S. dollar, de-dollarization story 57:57 Bitcoin views today 1:01:01 Bridgewater, after stepping down 1:03:57 Parting thoughts

Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. He is a regular contributor to Real Clear Markets and a columnist for the Epoch Times and is active on Twitter as well as He has been a guest on countless programs, including MacroVoices, and Real Vision, for his insights into the Eurodollar system, LIBOR and repo/securities lending markets., etc. During episode 67, Jeff explains that since late last year, markets have been "screaming bloody murder" in a way that hasn't been since 2007. According to Jeff, markets are hedged for a 2008-style scenario. 0:00 Introduction 1:53 Welcome Jeff Snider 2:40 Macro picture is “all sorts of ugly” 3:29 Economy in 2021 was an “artificial high” 4:00 Not just about macro, also about monetary system too 4:40 Still in the beginning stages 5:11 The economy is looking worse in short to intermediate-term outlook 6:00 Base case is mass layoffs 6:33 A false sense of confidence about the unemployment rate 9:48 Unemployment 11:43 The market is screaming bloody murder 12:48 A 2008-style scenario 14:40 Something wrong in the global system 17:30 How’d we get here? 18:20 Misconceptions around money printing and interest rates 19:45 Suffering from a lack of credit growth 22:06 The Eurodollar story 26:00 The Fed doesn’t print money 27:50 Distortions in the economy 29:00 Fed is ‘smoke and mirrors’ 33:00 What is money? 34:34 Banking crisis 36:23 Monetary system has become incredibly fragile 37:33 Fragility of the monetary system 38:07 A shortage of good quality collateral 43:00 Treasury Bills 46:00 De-dollarization story 49:00 Shortage of dollars 49:37 The Eurodollar system will be replaced at some point 53:00 The shadow money system 55:00 Eurodollar system is a black hole 58:00 Digital currencies 1:01:37 What keeps Jeff up at night?

Bethany McLean (@bethanymac12), author and journalist, joins Julia La Roche on episode 66 to revisit some notorious corporate failures and discuss fraud. Bethany is the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron and All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis. She has also written two mini books, Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the US Mortgage Giants and Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. She also serves on the board of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago. She's a 1992 graduate of Williams College. 0:00 Background and path to journalism  1:47 Goldman Sachs to fact-checking at Fortune  4:15 Writing about investing  5:45 Another side to stories  6:37 Enron  9:20 Reporting the Enron story  14:45 Lessons from Enron  15:20 Do you own homework  18:00 Emotion in business  20:00 Short-selling  23:11 Do your own homework  24:19 Valeant stock battle  26:10 Legal fraud  30:38 A thin line between a fraudster and a visionary  33:15 World of business is crazier than ever before  37:45 Golden age of fraud?  41:03 Venture capital and private equity’s reliance on low-interest rates  43:43 A different environment  44:44 Curiosity covering corporate failures  47:00 Can greed be eliminated?  48:48 Banking crisis  49:55 State of journalism