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The Bahnsen Group
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday, April 20
We cover the market, the latest in health data, plenty on housing prices, the PPP Part Two stimulus program, and oil prices - plus more
Links mentioned in this episode:
CovidAndMarkets.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
08:4820/04/2020
New Normal and Old Normal
The week went essentially much as I expected in the markets – the health data continues to point towards marked improvement, but not quite yet a full re-opening; markets did not continue the violent rally of last week, but had some modest volatility both up and down; and the economic data from March was awful, with all eyes and ears focused on where we go from here.
On the week, as of press time, the market is down a tiny bit on the week, but that comes with some decent sized up days and down days along the way (down 300, up 600, down 300, up 700).
I am very excited about this week’s Dividend Cafe, and hope you will see why when you read it.
• Is life about to change forever and ever?
• Is a “new normal” coming, and what does it mean?
• Will the next 12 months be a bear market or a bull market (from here)?
• What really happened in March at the points of maximum market distress?
• Long-term ramifications of this COVID-19 experience
• And so much more
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. I promise it will be a refreshing commentary on markets and the economy for investors who deserve better than the sensationalistic or self-serving garbage often posing as commentary.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
27:2517/04/2020
Dividend Cafe - Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday, April 16
The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
15:4616/04/2020
A Good Friday Indeed
The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number).
No, we do not know what equities will do next week, but we do know that the Federal Reserve gave markets a lot of news this week, and that will be the primary focus of the Dividend Cafe. But if you want to understand what it all means for the economy at-large, for housing, for bond investors, and for those just sort of wondering when our country is going to re-open, we invite you to jump into this week's very special Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
22:3610/04/2020
Markets Look Forward
As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type).
Note the theme? A “flat” week in markets, but with huge volatility day by day by day.
Why did markets go up 500 points the day the worst jobless claims data in history came out? Why did markets not tank on the news of the worst unemployment data in ten years? Because markets do not go down on news they already knew was coming. Period. I am confused by media and financial professionals who do not seem to understand this, but I take seriously my obligation to help you, readers of Dividend Cafe, understand this.
Because markets are “discounting mechanisms,” pricing in today what they believe about tomorrow, “good news” cannot make markets rally unless it was not already expected, and “bad news” cannot make markets drop unless it, too, was not expected.
And if you know someone who has not known that in the midst of this national shutdown, that jobs data was not atrociously bad, I really don’t know what to say. The key, my friends, is where we go from here, and that itself is riddled with uncertainty. So let’s unpack as much uncertainty as we can, and jump into a fruitful and useful Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
26:0403/04/2020
Miles and Miles To Go Before I Sleep
As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring.
This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra reading time this weekend) attempts to combine a lot of investment application, macroeconomic commentary, and basic financial wisdom, into one trip to the Dividend Cafe. Jump on in.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
00:0027/03/2020
Fiscal Stimulus Bazooka Has Now Gone Nuclear
The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka."
Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more practical guidance on surviving the bear market we are presently enduring.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
12:5823/03/2020
The Realities of the Market Moves that Matter
There is a Friday Dividend Cafe coming – I do not know when – where the basic tone will be celebratory, and the underlying emotion will be relief. Some lift in equities, some normalization in credit, and some feeling that the worst is all behind us – that Dividend Cafe is coming. Will it be next week or months down the line? I do not know. But I look forward to writing it, and I imagine many of you look forward to reading it.
This week is not that week, and I believe this week’s Dividend Cafe does as much to make sense of everything going on and where we are headed than anything I have written so far. I also do believe the national call we hosted on Tuesday remains current in explaining our outlook.
In the meantime, the country as a whole, not just investors, remain in a period of uncertainty and challenge. And out of this uncertainty and challenge, I believe will come much better days. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
11:5520/03/2020
National Conference Call Replay - Covid 19 and Market Lows
Join TBG Chief Investment Officer for a National Conference Call where he delves deep into the reasoning behind the massive moves in the markets over the last three weeks. Share it with your friends!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
01:08:0917/03/2020
TBG INVESTMENT COMMITTEE CORONAVIRUS UPDATE – WEEK OF MARCH 16, 2020
If one looks at the rapidity with which this market has sold off, the levels to which it has sold off, and the stressors that currently exist in our financial system and society at large, there is surely a lot of anxiety and uncertainty that permeates. This special Dividend Cafe will get into a handful of things that just simply must be said, offers a podcast from our Investment Committee, and addresses a lot of what is going on in the world that may help explain this crazy mess. Please, if you have time, join us in the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
37:1016/03/2020
Could It Be the Bottom?
It is so hard to stick to my normal Dividend Cafe format these days (not that anyone
cares). I am trying to write two per week, and the markets are changing minutes
after certain segments get written (or more challenging, the news itself alters or
stories take on different shapes). On two days this week (Monday and Thursday)
the violence of the market drops required additional email communications. Clients
receive their special bulletin specific to portfolio holdings on Wednesday, as well.
The state of affairs now makes the exact timing and precision of these
communications difficult. We hope you understand.
I set it up that way because there are things in flux right now as I type that by the
time I submit to my team may change, and by the time you read this may change
again. I apologize for that. But that is the state of affairs in which we find ourselves.
My feeling is that the market this week went through a Black Monday type day
(October 1987). On that fateful day we dropped 22.6% in one day (and it did
rebound 6% the next day). This week, going into Friday morning the market is down
18% in four days (and as I sit here in type from a Starbucks on 47th Street at
5:30am eastern, the market looks set to open up 5%). So while the violence was
four days, not one, and 23% is a lot more than 18%, there is still the same feeling of
shock and horror and the rapidity with which this all happened.
I am dedicating this week’s Dividend Cafe to what happened this week, what has to
happen from here for markets to (a) normalize, (b) begin recovery, and (c) finish
recovery. It is a long one, but hopefully easy to read and useful to your
understanding and thinking about this crisis.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
27:5413/03/2020
Dividend Cafe - Special Midweek Edition - Live from Washington D.C.
*Please go to dividendcafe.com to read this important post**
I wrote an awful lot of stuff over the weekend for this special mid-week Dividend Cafe. I wrote about the bizarre reality that with three days last week that the market was down nearly 1,000 points (Friday's was intra-day, but it did come back at the end of the day), the market was actually up 450 points last week. I wrote about various peripheral economic and market realities that I thought useful in the fuller context of the current state of affairs. And then Monday happened, and I have spent the 3 am - 6 am hours of Tuesday morning re-writing the entire thing.
I hesitate to even mention that as I type, the market futures are pointing to a 650+ point jump in the market (it had been a lot more). First of all, that is just a small part of yesterday's collapse, and secondly, by the time I am done typing this paragraph, let alone by the time you are done reading it, the possibility of reversal or adjustment is extremely high. These are the times in which we find ourselves.
You should have received my bulletin last night on the 11th worst market day in history that was Monday (and the worst day since the financial crisis). I stand behind every word written yesterday afternoon and will be reiterating much of it in this Dividend Cafe. But I really want to dive deeper into the oil saga playing out with Saudi and Russia, and I really want to unpack more of the economic ramifications of the present hysteria. That is what this Dividend Cafe will be devoted to - a bit more meat on the bone, none of which is meant to take away from the fundamental behavioral lessons I am desperately trying to reaffirm in all communications right now.
So jump on into this special Dividend Cafe
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
03:2810/03/2020
A Rollercoaster is Better Than A Slide
It's FRIDAY, MARCH 6 - The markets were down over 800 points early but right at this moment are down 650 points. I have no doubt markets will move from here, and I have no idea which direction. Big moves, in either direction, are the daily expectation right now.
This week’s Dividend Cafe offers as much information, guidance, and reality as we are able to muster.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
23:3806/03/2020
TBG Investment Committee - The Week of March 2, 2020
Our Investment Committee's weekly podcast today basically delves into all things market correction, market snap-back rally, coronavirus, and the political landscape shift of the weekend. An important listen in these volatile times.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
49:5103/03/2020
A Wicked Week It Was
The market ended the month of February with a level of pain in the markets not seen since December of 2018 (fourteen months ago). As of press time Friday morning we have experienced sell-offs every day this week, creating the worst week for markets since the financial crisis. The details are unpacked in the Dividend Cafe … The level of sell-off in the market is discussed but so are a variety of circumstances around it that very much warrant additional analysis. I made the decision this Friday morning to ditch literally pages of commentary and analysis I wrote over the last few days and just write afresh straight from the heart on all that is going on. Please click through and read.
This is not a Dividend Cafe to miss.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
00:0028/02/2020
TBG INVESTMENT COMMITTEE CORONAVIRUS UPDATE – WEEK OF FEBRUARY 24, 2020
The ongoing spread of coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding such pushed markets down a thousand points on the Dow (as of press time), and brought the ten-year bond yield to very near an all-time low. This 3%+ drop in stocks brings the equity market to where it was at the beginning of the year. Bond values continue to surge, offsetting much of the equity value drop for diversified investors.
In this special edition podcast our Investment Committee unpacks what is happening, why, what it means, what it doesn’t mean, and what we are doing (and not doing) about it. We also reiterate our theme of illiquidity-investments for 2020, and shout from the mountaintops the message that we are owners of business, not speculators in the stock market.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
44:2424/02/2020
A Short Market Week But Not a Boring One!
We have the whole week unpacked in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and ample commentary on the Fed, earnings, politics and more.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
11:0421/02/2020
Looking Beyond One Week
We cover the market action of the week (at least up until press time) this week. And yes, there are plenty of thoughts and ideas around the present investment environment ... But I also think you will find this week's Dividend Cafe to feature some longer-term reflections on the economy, on long-term challenges that drive so much economic behavior.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
18:0414/02/2020
A Resilient Investor vs. A Resilient Market
Sometimes it is important to remember that “volatile” is not a synonym for “negative.” Volatility refers to “up and down” movement – directionless – choppy – uncertain.
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we do all we need to do to understand the current market volatility, to consider the right portfolio approach to all present state of affairs, and of course to break down one of the most significant political weeks in recent times.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
16:3607/02/2020
TBG Investment Committee Outlook - Week of February 3, 2020
Topics discussed:
The market has gotten a bit exciting, and this week's special edition Dividend Cafe podcast explores why. We look into what it means, what is causing it, what investors have gotten right, and where we go next.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
40:1504/02/2020
The Volatility Virus and Cure
Topics discussed:
On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest …
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
23:5831/01/2020
AUDIO VERSION: YEAR AHEAD/YEAR BEHIND - Our 2020 Perspective
This is the AUDIO VERSION of Year Ahead/Year Behind annual report read by David L. Bahnsen, Founder, Chief Investment Officer, Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group.
Topics discussed:
This paper is a must read or listen for clients of The Bahnsen Group, as we unpack 2019 in review, evaluate what we were saying a year ago versus how things played out, and most importantly, do a deep dive on what we expect in 2020. A new decade is underway, and this piece provides actionable perspective on what investors ought to be thinking and doing in this pivotal time.
Click on the link below to download the written piece so you can access the charts and listen to every word of what has been an annual tradition of The Bahnsen Group.
Links mentioned in this episode:
https://thebahnsengroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2020-year-ahead-published.pdf
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
01:08:5531/01/2020
TBG Investment Committee Outlook - Week of January 27, 2020
Topics discussed:
The market dropped 450 points today as fears and uncertainties around the Chinese coronavirus make their way through the markets. In this special edition podcast with our whole investment committee we make the case for “don’t just do something, stand there” as the right investor response to the present news. We appeal to history, market realities, health epidemic precedents, and basic trade economics to make the case for avoiding panic, and letting an unresolved problem get resolved. Please give it a listen, and please reach out with any questions you may have.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
33:1927/01/2020
Politics Played A Role in Portfolios
Topics discussed:
Markets re-opened Tuesday this week after the MLK holiday on Monday, and experienced some modest moves to the downside on the week as of Thursday's press time ... But in a shortened market week where the big political news (impeachment hearings) are completely ignored by markets, and where there is no notable macroeconomic news or Federal Reserve announcements to process, it gives us a great opportunity to catch up on other topics not given enough attention in the Dividend Cafe.
We'll talk shale this week, viral fears in China, why a high bond supply does the opposite to interest rates that most people expect, and we spend a lot of time in Politics & Money ...
So jump on into the Dividend Cafe. It's a good one.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
19:3524/01/2020
TBG Investment Committee Outlook -Week of January 20, 2020
Topics discussed:
We are too early into earnings season to have much to say and the impeachment/political 'stuff' is enough to exhaust anyone. But 'global macroeconomics' - this is the stuff that gets us out of bed in the morning. And that's what we did this morning - we got out of bed and we talked global macro for you all. This is a not-to-be-missed Dividend Cafe podcast from our whole investment committee ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
57:0021/01/2020
TBG Investment Committee Outlook - Week of January 13, 2020
Topics discussed:
Managing Director, Partner Deiya Pernas and Director of Equity Research discuss the TBG client portfolio construction and infrastructure, equity and market hightlights of the week.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
27:1317/01/2020
Phase One, An Election Battle, and Earnings Galore
As of press time Thursday it has been another strong week in markets, with the formal signing of the phase one-U.S/China trade deal, a strong start to earnings season, and the continued general feeling that this is a good market in a good economy. Of course, life is never that simple, and markets are really never that simple, so we have a lot more to say about everything.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
18:2317/01/2020
National Resilience Extends to Markets
Topics discussed:
We have a full Dividend Cafe to bring you today. The news cycle did not slow down for the new year, and indeed, we have already opened the year with a slew of geopolitical events that add drama to capital markets.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
25:4910/01/2020
TBG Investment Committee Talks The Year Behind and The Year Ahead
Topics discussed:
But first, I would direct you all to the annual white paper I do every year recapping the year behind us and offering our perspective on the year in front of us - Year Ahead/Year Behind. I believe you will find it to be an informative and useful tool in understanding the recent past and considering the immediate future. Share with any you would like.
Links mentioned in this episode:
A Year Ahead/A Year Behind
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
00:0009/01/2020
A Present Under Every Investor's Tree
Consider this week’s Dividend Cafe an early Christmas present, not just because of Brexit and the phase one China trade deal and, of course, a 2019 in risk assets that has been one for the ages … but mostly because this is essentially a double issue Dividend Cafe with ample coverage on all the things you should be caring about right now as an investor. Because there will not be a Dividend Cafe next week we doubled up for you this week, so take a break from wrapping presents, grab a coffee (or egg nog), and jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
25:0920/12/2019
TBG Investment Committee Talks Trump, Tariffs, Taxes, and Brexit
Topics discussed:
On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest …
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
01:02:1516/12/2019
Tweeting The Market Higher
Topics discussed:
The markets ripped higher and I will unpack more details when you click into this week's Dividend Cafe ...
Since the market’s massive rally last Friday after mind-numbing good jobs numbers the market had barely budged this week. The Democrats in the House filed articles of impeachment against the President this week. The Fed stood still on interest rates. And the British voters headed to the polls to elect their Prime Minister. It wasn’t a boring week in the world, just in the market (until Thursday morning).
So this week we’ll dive into the jobs data, the strength of the economy, the vulnerabilities in the economy, the pending tariff deadline, and all sorts of big things. It’s a whopper of info, so let’s get caffeinated in the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
00:0013/12/2019
The Ups and Downs of the Market This Week
Topics discussed:
Welcome to the final month of 2019! I. Love. December. I love it no matter what the market does. I love it no matter what the news cycle is doing. It is just a wonderful time of year, and I have done my best to bring in this special month with a special Dividend Cafe - covering all the ups and downs in the market this week, really meaty stuff on the trade war, the most important thing I could ever say about "perma-bears," the timely reality under-pinning dividend growth, and a really crucial economic lesson. I think this is the best Dividend Cafe of the year (okay, maybe I say that too much), but jump on in and let's get in the December spirit ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
23:1806/12/2019
Happy Thanksgiving! - 2019
Thanksgiving is the one week of the year, where we bypass market commentary and economic analysis in the Dividend Café. It serves as a logical week to take a break from the Fed, global GDP growth, the trade war, earnings, and market valuations. And affirmatively, we should be doing a Thanksgiving edition of Dividend Café every week, because that is how much gratitude we have at The Bahnsen Group.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
12:3127/11/2019
Mayor Pete and Your Portfolio - TBG Investment Committee
In this week’s special Dividend Cafe podcast and video, The Bahnsen Group’s Investment Committee dives into the economic policy platform of surging Democratic nominee, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Some refreshers on dividend taxation are in order, and so much more. A pre-Thanksgiving special edition!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
53:5925/11/2019
Did Someone Say Trade Deal?
Topics discussed:
As of press time mid-day on Thursday, the market was down about 250 points on the week, which is not noteworthy in that 250 points is nothing, especially divided by 28,000, and especially because it is three or four days of action. I only mention it because (a) Some of you are getting bored by the low volatility market of the last few weeks and this makes it sound like markets moved, and (b) Some of the chatter behind the couple points we moved are interesting.
But I am not going to pretend that there is much substance behind a 250 point move; markets can move 250 points on a sneeze! What I will do this week is provide some history, provide some economics, and provide some perspective – because frankly, I don’t think there are a lot of other places to get it right now!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
13:5822/11/2019
The Worldview of Emerging Markets
Topics discussed:
We have spent way too much time talking about the trade war, tariffs, the Fed, and Trump this year, and not nearly enough time talking about sustainable growth in the emerging markets. Our Investment Committee thoroughly unpacks what we believe to be one of the more intriguing parts of our investing worldview at The Bahnsen Group in this extensive and thought-provoking discussion.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
52:0819/11/2019
There's Reason for an Optimistic Outlook
Topics discussed:
Greetings from New York City where I actually spent a day in Connecticut this week with clients and another day in Boston with clients and investment banks. I am en route back to California as this is being delivered to you, where I will immediately experience a 50-degree bump in weather from departure city to arrival city.
Markets had no such weather volatility this week as things were reasonably tame yet again (at least as of press time). This has thus far been a very flat week in markets both from start to finish but also intra-day as well. I think the reason for that is examined in a clear and understandable way in this week's Dividend Cafe.
But I strive to do a lot more in the Dividend Cafe this week than just look at the week that was in markets ... We look at the full scope of the China trade status, going into 2020, we look at the cash on the sidelines of the American economy, and we look at where growth can be expected to be for years to come (this is my favorite section of the Dividend Cafe this week!). I even offer a periodic reminder on the realities of gold investing, and of course, offer the normal mix of politics and money. Click on in, check it out, and welcome to the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
24:0715/11/2019
All-Time Highs and Trading Away the Tariffs
Topics discussed:
I am quite happy to say that this week's market saw several new all-time highs reached (Dow and S&P 500) - more on that in the Dividend Cafe - but additionally happy to say that the reason for such was largely centered around pretty significant movement in the China trade talks ... So we unpack at great length this week all going on with the trade talks, and we also cover the math of "all-time highs." We also get to discuss manufacturing, the crazy IPO market, the reason people like the stock market right now (us too!), and so much more. This is a weekly Dividend Cafe I am proud of - click on in ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
14:3508/11/2019
New York Annual Due Diligence Takeaways
Topics discussed:
Our 14th annual New York due diligence trip featuring 20+ meetings with top portfolio managers, economic strategists, and alternatives partners was a whirlwind, and in this special podcast, we invite you into the key takeaways for us on this significant trip.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
00:0005/11/2019
The Fed Delivers as Promised
Topics discussed:
And just like that, we find ourselves in the month of November, a stunningly quick completion of the first ten months of the year. This means that we are now officially in the holiday season, that the Presidential election is only one year away, and that end of the year portfolio re-positionings are on the top of everyone's mind (okay, not everyone's, but at least ours).
This week's market produced all-time highs in the S&P 500, and this week's Dividend Cafe looks at why that is, how painfully unintelligent it is to think that "an all-time high" is something to be afraid of, and why the Fed did what they did this week. There is plenty to chew on, so please do grab a coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
00:0001/11/2019
Politics, Policy, and your Portfolio
Topics discussed:
Greetings from New York City where we are approaching the end of an intense week of meetings, discussions, debates, analysis, and soon, decisions. It has been invigorating and we still have a couple of days of meetings to go, so a more comprehensive download will linger for another week. But in the meantime, this week's Dividend Cafe will recap the week in markets, offer an update on the Fed, explore the latest on NAFTA 2.0, seek to scare you a bit, and seek to encourage you a bit. There is also yet another pretty comprehensive analysis of the political landscape and what it means to markets right now. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and let's explore the latest and greatest in the world of investing.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
14:2025/10/2019
An Economic Lesson For The Short Term with Long Term Implications
Topics discussed:
Greetings from the financial capital of the world that is New York City where I have officially begun my annual "due diligence" week, and where another week in the markets deserves comprehensive analysis. We focus our efforts this week on what was done and not done in the "pre-written, phase one" trade deal, but we also delve into Brexit, the yield curve, Elizabeth Warren proposals, and even the lottery this week. But one thing I ask this week - persevere through all the weekly commentary to get to the "economic lesson" of the week. It is the subject most near and dear to my heart this week, and hopefully will be well worth the listen. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
18:5118/10/2019
The Financial Implications of Winning or Losing the Trade War
Topics discussed:
The market loved the word Friday that the trade war talks did not blow up, and that they, in fact, have created the possibility of a reasonably positive “phase one” deal. The issues around the trade war and their impact on the economy, the market, and the political atmosphere, are all so significant, they warranted a SPECIAL podcast discussion with our investment committee. So listen or view below as you wish, and reach out with any questions! This is a very comprehensive discussion of the whole matter, and you deserve to have the misinformation made right.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
53:2516/10/2019
High Drama as Trade Talks Continue
Topics discussed:
Some day-to-day volatility in the market unsurprisingly surfaced in markets this week as we were down 100, down 300, then up 200 the first three days of the week, all around various chitter-chatter as to where China-trade talks were or were expected to be or were rumored to go or whatever ... This is a frustrating Dividend Cafe to send because I have no choice in terms of the timeline but to submit it before we have gotten real reports on how the trade talks have gone Thursday, and yet you will be receiving this Friday and of course by now there may very well be some updated report as to how the status of such talks. Of course, by early next week, I will provide an interim Dividend Cafe to give an update on the state of affairs ...
The trade talks are the largest macro issue to watch right now, as once again the futures market has all but fully priced in another Fed quarter-point rate cut (at the October FOMC meeting at the end of the month). But markets are likely to respond to earnings results as the new season kicks off this coming week. Expectations are again reduced so how companies report revenue and profit results from the quarter that just was, and what sort of guidance they offer about expected results in the quarters ahead, are very likely to move the needle (in the overall market level, and of course in individual company results).
This week's Dividend Cafe is really focused on the economy, the Fed, politics, and earnings. We look at a preview of earnings season, the idea of a QE4 coming, a deeper dive on economic indicators, and of course, Politics and Money. Grab your coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
19:2011/10/2019
Earnings Season Expectations
Topics discussed:
As hard as it may be to focus on anything other than political drama and the China trade war, we actually have an earnings season starting next week. Listen in or watch as our Investment Committee dives into all our expectations and thoughts of the earnings season that is about to begin, and what it means for investors.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
55:2709/10/2019
It's the Economy, Stupid
Topics discussed:
As of press time the market was down significantly on the week, down approximately 800 points on the Dow since Tuesday morning. Believe it or not, Tuesday/Wednesday were the first back-to-back days of down over 1% (each day) in the S&P 500 all year. We need to look at what the issues are in the market, what to expect as we get into the fourth quarter, and look at the variety of issues that actually matter right now in markets and the world economy. From manufacturing to impeachment and lots of politics, we have it all in this week's Dividend Cafe.
This Week's Market Drop
Manufacturing and Services Sector Data
The Trade War's Effect on the Economy
Markets and Impeachment
Europe is a Debacle
Politics and Markets
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
18:0104/10/2019
How Investors Should be Thinking about Politics and their Portfolios - TBG Investment Committee
Topics discussed:
What does history tell us about political ramifications to one’s portfolio decision-making? What are the four categories we look at when evaluating political relevance to market action? And what ought investors do in these highly complicated times? This latest podcast/vidcast from our investment committee provides a quality perspective on how to think about the present environment, and will leave you with actionable takeaways on what should be done, and just as importantly, what should not be.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
43:4701/10/2019
The Most Political Dividend Cafe Ever
Topics discussed:
With the trade war still front and center in the global economy, earning season three weeks away, and continued questions about the Fed’s plans floating around, why did all market conversations seem to slip into the background this week? Oh yes, the perpetual reality show that is Washington D.C. took over the news this week, and it has led to maybe the most political Dividend Café of recent memory. Now fear not, there is ample coverage of U.S. economic health, monetary policy, and the investment issues near and dear to your heart, but some extensive political-economic commentary is warranted this week. So jump on into the Dividend Café, and we’ll do our best to offend no one, or everyone.
Mandatory Fed Discussion
An economic reality check
Summary of the economic outlook
Are households vulnerable to equity prices?
Small-cap warning
Big word jargon to describe Fed failures
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
25:4527/09/2019
Index Funds as Weapons of Mass Destruction
Topics discussed:
Our investment committee creates this podcast for you to tackle a variety of issues pertinent to investors. The mass increase in the popularity of index funds is the latest topic, only we don’t do it with the dryness and academic focus many advisors may pour on this topic. Rather, we delve into the subject of index funds with a view towards what matters to investors, where risks may actually exist, and what we believe can be done about it. This is worth your time to listen to or view!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
57:4025/09/2019