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Nathaniel Whittemore
A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.
Will DAOs Break the Power of Venture Capitalists?
In addition to the deep dive into distributed autonomous organizations, or DAOs, and their future in venture capital, today’s “The Brief” covers:
Bitcoin futures trading approved for some Bank of America clients
Stablecoin discussions entering the upper echelons of U.S. government
The bubble continuing to inflate as markets roll over historical indicators
SushiSwap, the decentralized exchange based on Uniswap, is proposing to sell a portion of its treasury to venture firms as part of a broader diversification plan. The community finds itself torn in half over the announcement, with some advocating for the benefits of seasoned expertise and others vehemently denying the need for institutional investors.
SushiSwap’s “VC-versus-community” debate provides a case study on the growing world and strength of DAOs. VCs have previously held the essentially sole power over the fate of startups, but in the case of SushiSwap, they are now forced to be in open negotiation with the community.
This power shift presents a window into the vitality of DAOs, stemming from their democratic and global nature, dynamism and anonymity. Will DAOs succeed as the internet native form of organization?
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17:0120/07/2021
Why Governments Should Invest in Bitcoin Infrastructure
This week’s “Long Reads Sunday” is a reading of “Bitcoin: An Orange New Deal” by Andrew Bailey and Bradley Rettler.
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13:2918/07/2021
Paraguay's Leaked Crypto Law: Depressing Dud or Too Early to Tell?
On this edition of the “Weekly Recap,” NLW covers:
The latest in Binance’s global regulatory troubles
Leaked crypto legislation from Paraguay
Capital Group’s big bet on MicroStrategy
The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority slated to spend £11M on an anti-crypto campaign for young people
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10:2317/07/2021
Square Sets Out to Bring DeFi to Bitcoin
Square has announced a new initiative, titled “TBD,” that CEO Jack Dorsey describes as “focused on building an open developer platform with the sole goal of making it easy to create non-custodial, permissionless and decentralized financial services.” Dorsey intends the platform to be developed completely transparently: “open road map, open development and open source.”
In this episode, NLW puts the new initiative in the context of Square’s long-term relationship with Bitcoin, explains why it’s different from the company’s Square Crypto efforts and analyzes how different parts of the community are reacting to the news.
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13:5217/07/2021
BlackRock CEO Seeing No Demand for Crypto
On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW addresses recent shifts in institutional and regulatory discussions on crypto, including:
How BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees the state of crypto
ShapeShift’s final structural shift
Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s stance against stablecoins
A dissenting letter from two SEC commissioners
BlackRock made headlines when it entered the crypto market because it viewed bitcoin as a hedge play that could no longer be ignored. Now, this investment management company finds itself in a changed landscape as bitcoin prices have fallen from all-time highs. How has CEO Larry Fink’s view of crypto changed with this new price point?
ShapeShift, a global digital asset trading platform, was created with a vision of minimizing user-collected data. That vision was tarnished in 2018 when the platform began requiring basic information, resulting in a 95% loss of its user base. ShapeShift’s tumultuous history has added another chapter today with the announcement that it is converting to a decentralized autonomous organization, or DAO, owned by the users. Is this one step in a greater trend of fundamentally shedding corporate organizational power structures?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell countered Vice Chairman Randal Quarles’ pro-stablecoin stance in a recent testimony before Congress. While Quarles asserted successful stablecoins would make a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) redundant, Powell offered the opposite opinion: “You wouldn’t need stablecoins, you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies if you had a digital U.S. currency.” Whose stance will win in the growing stablecoin versus CBDC debate?
Two members of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a letter of dissent following a SEC enforcement action against U.K. company Coinschedule for anti-touting provisions. The letter expressed the members’ disappointment at the lack of regulatory clarification following the Coinschedule opportunity and an overarching distaste at a lack of transparency surrounding crypto guidance. Will more members follow in their footsteps and push for a clearer SEC stance?
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14:2916/07/2021
Federal Reserve Vice Chair: ‘We Do Not Need to Fear Stablecoins’
On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW analyzes a stablecoin-focused speech from Randal Quarles, vice chair of the Federal Reserve, starting with a primer on developing trends related to the topic, including:
CBDC discussion, investigation and development across global powers
The ability of stablecoins to make a U.S. CBDC redundant
The conversation around central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is growing louder. In China, the digital yuan continues to roll out through lottery tests and, more recently, for use in the Beijing subway. Today, the European Central Bank announced a new two-year “investigation” period during which the ECB will prepare for a larger digital euro design phase with user consultation, regulatory discussions and market analysis.
Still, NLW argues that we can’t view the rise of public CBDC discussions in the absence of the growing adoption of private stablecoins. While these private, fiat-pegged stablecoins seem increasingly in the regulatory crosshairs, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles recently argued the U.S. central bank and policy makers shouldn’t fear them – and that, indeed, when regulated properly, stablecoins might make the need for a CBDC redundant.
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19:3415/07/2021
While Others Warn of Market Bubble, Bitcoin Bull Bill Miller Doesn't Think So
On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW analyzes value investor turned bitcoin bull Bill Miller’s contrarian take on a possible upcoming market bubble. Miller’s background lies in traditional markets, with a massive portion of his portfolio grounded in strategically held Amazon shares. That, in addition to his relatively early bitcoin investments, provides him with an insider perspective from an external base understanding of markets. While other top investors predict an “epic” market crash, Miller remains unconcerned.
Today on the brief, NLW covers the most recent crypto market news, including:
New CPI releases fanning the inflation debate fire
Crypto volatility spillover risks to traditional markets
Square’s forthcoming hardware wallet
Newly released Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers fuel an ongoing, contentious debate around inflation. While the Federal Reserve sticks to its “transitory” assessment, others are not so sure. How will the numbers change as base effects no longer become a valid explanation?
As institutional investors fill the crypto space, a “spillover” system risk concern becomes increasingly relevant. Is spillover just another piece of FUD, or is it an inevitable reality as traditional and crypto markets become more entwined?
Square’s teasing of a hardware wallet project is materializing. CEO Jack Dorsey tweeted no less than 12 guiding principles for the project, and the project lead more recently announced the company’s dedication to make “bitcoin custody more mainstream.” Although no exact timeline for release exists, Square’s project is an exciting step towards easier entry to bitcoin mobile and self-custody use.
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17:2114/07/2021
Bitcoin Leads to Hyperinflation? Meet the Strangest FUD Yet
In this episode, NLW focuses on:
Inflation measures, impacts and who’s to blame
News out of Paraguay concerning pro-bitcoin legislation
A recent “Wall Street Journal” survey of economists revealed they expect higher inflation rates to persist for years to come. “Money Week” ran an op-ed playing on the increased attention on inflation where they pin bitcoin as an unused hoard of productive wealth and a reason for inflation. Is bitcoin really to blame for expectations of continuing inflation?
El Salvador’s influence continues to permeate other nations hoping to make similar advances in crypto. On Wednesday, July 14, a Paraguayan “Bitcoin Bill” is expected to be introduced. Though the exact contents of the bill are not yet known, Paraguay would be the next country setting a positive stance towards crypto.
Lastly, NLW covers more in bitcoin and crypto news. What does Grayscale’s move to make its Large Cap Fund a Securities and Exchange Commission reporting company mean? Also, can China’s post-COVID economic recovery be an indicator for what will happen in the rest of the world?
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12:3613/07/2021
The Progressive Case for Bitcoin
On this edition of “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads an excerpt from Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s questions to SEC Chairman Gensler about crypto and crypto exchanges. NLW then reads an essay responding to Warren’s recent discussions of the topic from Murtaza Hussain called “Elizabeth Warren’s Bitcoin Blind Spot.”
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12:4111/07/2021
Can a New Wave of Crypto IPOs Rekindle Wall Street Excitement?
On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at how Wall Street momentum in crypto rose last year only to fade this year. With Circle coming to markets via a SPAC merger and Robinhood going public, is there a chance those events will bring some renewed excitement?
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14:0210/07/2021
As Biden Targets Big Tech, a Reminder That Decentralized Technologies Are Anti-Monopolist
On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW analyzes President Joe Biden’s “Factsheet: Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy,” including:
The shift in public sentiment against Big Tech
The order’s implications to the tech and finance sectors
Crypto’s decentralized nature as intrinsically anti-monopolist
For a period of time, tech companies enjoyed the highest public opinion among large corporations. However, the rise of ad-focused platforms and the advent of social media (with all its demons) encouraged increased scrutiny. Privacy concerns only add to the distaste toward companies including Amazon, Google, and Facebook.
With public opinion souring, governments are similarly implementing various regulation schemes as they become wary of the threat of monopolization. Take Europe, for example, which created the General Data Protection Regulation system, and China’s more aggressive actions against social media. The U.S. has dabbled in tightening its reins on big tech with an assortment of antitrust lawsuits, but President Biden’s recent executive order takes the mentality to a new level.
The public mindset and regulatory shift places crypto as the potential solution to concerns of monopolization. Crypto’s decentralization – its lack of CEOs and corporate power structures – make it an attractive path away from monopolies in the American economy.
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18:3210/07/2021
Are GBTC Unwinds Bullish or Bearish for Bitcoin?
NLW explores the debate surrounding the GBTC unlock’s bearish or bullish nature on this episode of “The Breakdown,” including:
Historical impacts of market structure on prices
GBTC’s influence on markets as its premium attracted investors
Analysis of the GBTC unlock bearish vs. bullish debate
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, GBTC is an investment vehicle that allows institutional and public market investors to invest in bitcoin without purchasing the cryptocurrency directly.
While many GBTC investors were simply looking for public market exposure to bitcoin, many firms also took a more strategic approach to capture the neutral arbitrage trade of GBTC shares trading at a premium to the native asset value (NAV) of bitcoin. The demand for public market vehicles coupled with a lack of other alternatives placed GBTC at a desirable premium.
The GBTC NAV trade was a significant source of buying pressure through the back half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, but when the premium turned to a discount (thanks to a variety of factors, including competition from other bitcoin proxies in the public markets), that source of buying pressure dried up.
When an investor buys into GBTC, their shares are locked up for six months. More than 100,000 bitcoin worth of shares are expected to be released throughout July. The looming flood of shares into secondary markets has sparked a debate on whether the unlock will be bearish or bullish for the spot price of bitcoin.
Featuring commentary from Lyn Alden, Loomdart, Willy Woo and more.
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22:0909/07/2021
De-Globalization vs. De-Nationification: Which Trend Wins?
Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW explores what he calls “the shifting tectonic plates of the global social order.” On one side, he argues, are the forces of de-globalization, with nations turning inward and focusing on economic sovereignty. Part of that is states exerting more control over corporations and Big Tech. On the other is a process of de-nationification, where powers previously reserved for states – such as printing money – are increasingly in the hands of new internet-based networks and corporations. This shapes the larger context of crypto disruption and puts a lens on understanding the growing regulatory debate.
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13:1508/07/2021
Will Bitcoin or Russia Be Blamed for the Latest Ransomware Attacks?
On this extended-brief style episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW discusses recent news, FUD and policy in the world of crypto, including:
The ransomware group behind the Colonial Pipeline attack strikes again
An increasing list of regulatory actions against Binance
The China crackdown on crypto trading
The attack against Colonial Pipeline pushed ransomware fears to a new level. REvil, the same group behind the Colonial attack, stuck once again. Kaseya, a company providing network-management services, was the most recent victim. With one million machines infected, the media and regulators look for an easy target to blame for the increase in ransomware attacks. Who will take the fall: Russia or Bitcoin?
Binance continues to fall under increased regulatory scrutiny. Barclays Bank, one of the U.K.’s biggest, has stopped card payments to Binance. At the same time, Thailand filed a criminal complaint against the company, and the Cayman Islands said Binance would not be allowed to do business there. Though Binance is the current target, do these actions suggest a shift in sentiment from banks and regulators on crypto?
China’s crackdown on crypto continues, this time with an emphasis on trading. The business administration department of the People's Bank of China and the Beijing Financial Supervision and Administration bureau issued yet another warning about crypto trading. This warning was joined by an enforcement action against Beijing Qudao Cultural Development Limited, as well as Didi, a popular ride hailing app. Is China banning itself from crypto?
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11:5107/07/2021
The State of Institutional Adoption of DeFi, Feat. Circle’s Jeremy Allaire
This conversation was originally released as a sponsored content webinar from Circle and CoinDesk. NLW decided to release it on his podcast of his own volition and was not paid to do so. The conversation covers why institutions are becoming interested in DeFi, which institutions are starting to participate and what barriers remain.
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43:5506/07/2021
Declaring Independence and Freedom From Bitcoin FUD
On this holiday edition of “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads Jeff Dorman’s “Debunking 10 Digital Asset Bear Market Theses.”
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11:2804/07/2021
Are We On the Verge of a New Regulatory Era in Crypto?
On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at:
Why this week’s congressional hearing suggests elected officials are taking crypto more seriously
A slate of CBDC news from around the world
The beginning of a new macro narrative for Ethereum and DeFi
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08:4803/07/2021
Network Undergoes Biggest Difficulty Adjustment Ever; BMC Says 67.6% of North American Bitcoin Mining Is Sustainable
Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW looks at the latest in the highly dynamic, fast-evolving world of bitcoin mining, including:
China’s mining ban and the “Great Western Hashrate Migration”
Bitcoin’s built-in hashrate fluctuation mitigation, the “difficulty adjustment”
The Bitcoin Mining Council’s newest sustainable mining figures
China’s expansive mining ban, including regions with hydroelectric power, forced China-based miners to liquidate some of their crypto in preparation for a move elsewhere. Where will hashrate move next? Will miners join U.S. crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Texas and Kentucky, or will they stay close to home in bordering countries like Kazakhstan and Russia?
The ban induced a massive reduction of hash power on the network. Luckily, Satoshi prepared for such a circumstance and built in a concept of “difficulty adjustment” into Bitcoin’s protocols, which allows for fluctuation in the composition of miners. The adjustment expected to be made tonight will be the highest adjustment ever made on the network.
Lastly, NLW addresses a report released by the Bitcoin Mining Council on sustainable energy disclosures. This report’s feature number, 56% of mining electricity mix is sustainable in Q2 2021, has some groups excited while others remain skeptical of the validity of the report. As NLW argues, “Some data is better than no data.”
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11:0903/07/2021
George Soros and Steve Cohen Go In on Bitcoin; Here’s Why That Might Not Be a Good Thing
In this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW discusses a fresh wave of investors and their potential disruptions to markets, including:
Two new major hedge funds, Point72 and Soros Fund
Inevitable short-term investors as part of market maturation
Troublesome possibility of regulation forming around institutional trading habits
In early 2020, institutional investors flowed into the crypto space nonstop, including hedge funds, corporate treasuries and insurance companies. This new type of investor changed the space, with surging and plunging prices following news of investors coming and going. Then the flood stopped as the always-controversial Elon Musk’s Tesla balked at bitcoin’s energy consumption and walked back accepting the top cryptocurrency in exchange for the company’s trendy vehicles.
In the last quarter, institutional investors have been stepping back into crypto. Point72, Steve Cohen’s company, stated it would be “remiss to ignore a now $2 trillion cryptocurrency market” and is looking to hire a “Head of Cryptocurrencies.” Besides Point72, internal management at George Soros’ Soros Fund has given the “greenlight to actively trade bitcoin.”
Are these two hedge funds just the tip of the iceberg for a resurgence in institutional investment? How will this new mass of money impact markets and regulation?
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12:3102/07/2021
A "Crypto Frenzy"? Today's Congressional Hearing Puts Bitcoin and DeFi in the Hot Seat
An interview with a congressman followed by a congressional hearing on crypto signal policymakers are moving to the next phase of talks about regulating crypto.
Troubling comments in Congressman Bill Foster’s interview with Axios
Upcoming committee hearing titled ominously “America on ‘FIRE:’ Will the Crypto Frenzy Lead to Financial Independence and Early Retirement or Financial Ruin?”
Foster has historically been a champion of the crypto market: He is a co-chairman of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus and was previously supportive of the future of crypto. However, in his recent Axios interview, his tone flipped, as he went as far as to suggest the need for a “cryptographic backdoor” to allow the court the ability to view or even reverse transactions. Is Foster’s new viewpoint indicative of a greater shift in policymakers’ attitude toward crypto regulation?
Today’s House Committee on Financial Services hearing with a particularly colorful title is yet another signal for an upcoming regulatory push in crypto. The hearing’s agenda includes a discussion of bad actors on decentralized currency exchanges, or DEX, including a reference to Mark Cuban’s recent loss of money in a DeFi “rug pull.” With an expert witness lineup, including Jim Cramer of “Mad Money,” Alexis Goldstein of the Open Markets Institute and Peter Van Valkenburgh of CoinCenter, there is quite a mixed set of viewpoints on the current state and future of crypto.
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19:4601/07/2021
How the Macro Landscape Is Shaping Bitcoin Markets
Highlights from today’s Breakdown:
The latest legal challenges around the Bitcoin white paper
A barrage of institutional bitcoin news
What the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs has to do with the crypto markets
For those worried there was a loss of momentum around institutions entering bitcoin, fear not. Cathie Wood’s ARK is joining forces with 21 Shares to become the latest to apply to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley has bought more than 28,000 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
More broadly, markets have been buoyant over the last few weeks, closing at new all-time highs on Monday. This is finding its way into crypto markets, which reflects how increasingly intermingled traditional investors are becoming with crypto investors.
Could a new COVID-19 variant negatively impact the economy’s overall momentum? If it did, what would the likely impact on bitcoin and other cryptos be?
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10:5130/06/2021
The Real Story of the UK Binance Ban
Today on the Brief:
Indian investment in crypto soars
The first Mexican bank to accept bitcoin?
Tether FUD from the FED?
In our main discussion, NLW looks at recent regulatory action from the U.K., Canada and Japan. He argues that we’re entering a new phase of global regulation, where we’re likely to see a particular focus on leverage and derivatives.
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12:0229/06/2021
The Great Western Hashrate Migration Is Real
On this week’s “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads Nic Carter’s latest essay for CoinDesk “Go West, Bitcoin! Unpacking the Great Hashrate Migration.”
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10:5027/06/2021
Even in an Off Week, Bitcoin Had Quietly Massive Institutional Adoption News
On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at:
Two more massive fundraises
A set of positive regulatory news
A new partnership that will bring bitcoin directly to bank accounts and credit unions around America
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07:5426/06/2021
Elon Shitposting While El Salvador's President Addressed the Nation About Bitcoin Is Peak 2021
Last night was one for the history books. As Elon Musk was making weird, stupid jokes about bitcoiners, the president of El Salvador was live on YouTube discussing what amounts to a $117 million BTC airdrop to citizens as a part of the recently passed law making bitcoin legal tender in the Central American nation.
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11:1726/06/2021
John McAfee and the End of Crypto’s Gonzo Era
The passing of an icon in crypto necessitates reflection. John McAfee was at times reviled, and at the same time, deadly serious and a prophet, sometimes a clown. The many facets to his personality mirror the roller-coaster history of crypto, a Wild West of finance in its earliest days.
Join NLW in this episode of “The Breakdown” for a journey first through the winding history of McAfee, followed by a narrative tour of the many flashpoints in the “gonzo” era of early crypto.
Full transcript: https://www.coindesk.com/podcasts/coindesk-podcast-network/john-mcafee-end-crypto-gonzo-era
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15:2225/06/2021
Bear Market? Not According to These Monster Funding Rounds
Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW looks at the contrast between growing bear market sentiment versus a sustained set of high-profile eight and nine figure financing rounds across multiple dimensions of the crypto market. Specifically, he looks at funding deals in NFTs, DeFi and institutional bitcoin, arguing that even if we do head into a bear market, that capital is likely to mean a return to bull more quickly.
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14:0324/06/2021
Lyn Alden on Bitcoin, Inflation and the Potential Coming Energy Shock
Lyn Alden, investment researcher and strategist with a keen eye on both crypto and traditional markets, joins NLW on today’s “The Breakdown.” Listen for a conversation about the state of the market and projections for the future including:
Inflation: base effects and transitory in nature or here to stay?
Foreign debt markets tapering off
The Lightning Network and predictions for the success of El Salvador
Inflation at a high number, 5%, leaves investors and market observers jumpy. On top of that, many have a hard time believing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s narrative for inflation as outlined in the recent FOMC meeting. How is this inflation different from previous spikes?
The foreign sector has historically been a large buyer of Treasurys in structural trade deficits. In 2013, China stepped away from this practice and started investing in its own infrastructure and in other regions across the world. Even if other countries continue to invest in U.S. assets, it is increasingly in hard assets like stocks or real estate. Will the dollar weaken as the Fed is forced to be the primary buyer of U.S. Treasurys?
El Salvador’s commitment to bitcoin as legal tender is one thing, but what will the reality of this new currency look like? Bitcoin’s Lightning Network provides easy access and transaction speeds, so long as enough of the general population has access to smartphones.
Lastly, with the public’s attention captured by the current inflationary moment, what market features are getting underreported? Tune in to hear Alden’s perspective on what will have an unexpected impact in the upcoming cycles, including the potential for a significant energy shock in the years to come.
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54:4123/06/2021
The De-Chinafication of Bitcoin
On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW takes a look at the most recent crypto news before taking a deeper dive into the latest step in the de-Chinafication of bitcoin.
MicroStrategy going “all-in” on bitcoin
Michael Burry’s warnings on Twitter of the “Mother of All Crashes”
The “dot plot shock” and post-FOMC meeting confusion
Accelerating China mining ban
While in this in-between state, post-COVID and pre-monetary policy tapering, institutional investors find themselves on diverging and opposing paths. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy has gone “all in,” while at the same time investor Michael Burry took to Twitter with warnings of an upcoming “Mother of All Crashes.” Confusion following the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting only adds to the contention between investors with contrasting visions for the near future of crypto.
The Central Bank of China has convened a meeting with the major banks to reiterate and tighten previous policies on the prevention of virtual currency transactions in bank accounts. Is this restriction on crypto transactions yet another indication that China is taking a more aggressive stance against bitcoin?
More to this point, Sichuan became the most recent province to crack down on crypto mining. Sichuan, primarily mining with hydropower, seems to diminish previous ban reasoning citing environmental concerns. How far will China go to remove itself from bitcoin, and what does that mean for its citizens and the crypto space as a whole?
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12:5022/06/2021
Does a Law From the Civil War Make Stablecoins Illegal?
On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads “How the Civil War Shapes the Future of Stablecoins” by Franklin Noll, and discusses the recent debates around stablecoins and CBDCs.
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11:4420/06/2021
What Are the Prospects for a Bitcoin Standard in Africa?
This week on “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap” NLW covers:
More institutional bitcoin news, including a new Morgan Stanley fund from NYDIG and FS Investments and a Goldman Sachs trading partnership with Galaxy Digital
A resurgence of “crypto is for criminals” FUD plus new China miner shutdowns in Sichuan
The latest debates around El Salvador’s bitcoin law
Rumblings of bitcoin in Nigeria, CFA countries and Ethiopia
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12:2019/06/2021
The Shorter Cycle Theory With Larry Cermak
The idea of a multiyear supercycle is fading as shorter cycles take their place. In this episode, NLW and guest Larry Cermak, director of research at The Block, discuss the transformation of the supercycle timeline as the crypto space evolves. The discussion includes:
An analysis of the macro-narrative and the current “wait-and-see” mode
Shorter cycles taking hold as the crypto space matures
The larger institutional narrative promised a bevy of substantial allocators to contribute to the market. That narrative, however, has weakened over time as the promise falls short. Add on the uncertainty from China’s partial ban on mining and Tesla’s environmental concerns, and the narrative continues to lose momentum. What narrative will take over next? When will this “wait-and-see” mode end?
Historically, crypto was perceived to fall into semi-stable cycles. For a couple of years, prices would rise, and for the next two or three years after, prices crash. However, with longer-term investors and a broader focus on usability over speculation, is there now a foundation for a more stable market with shorter cycles?
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34:0519/06/2021
From a $1T Asset to a $100T Network: Everything We Learned About the Bitcoin Mining Council From Michael Saylor's Twitter Spaces
On today’s episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW first follows up on yesterday’s episode about the FOMC meeting and a potential future shift in Fed policy. As many expected, the Fed kept its short-term policy the same, but revised forward its estimates for when it will begin rate hikes to 2023.
The main discussion focuses on the latest from the Bitcoin Mining Council. Yesterday, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor hosted a 90-minute discussion via Twitter spaces that featured many pointed questions. NLW argues that what’s clear from the session is Saylor is focused on scaling bitcoin from a $1 trillion asset to a $100 trillion network and fighting anything that stands in the way.
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16:0418/06/2021
Will the Fed Shift Policy Due to Increasing Inflation?
On today’s episode, NLW looks at the Federal Open Markets Committee briefing coming up this afternoon and discusses what it might signal in terms of future monetary policy. The discussion includes:
How the Great Financial Crisis inspired “the largest monetary policy experiment in history”
2013’s “Taper Tantrum”
The return to GFC era policies during COVID-19
The insurgency of meme traders
Why inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy
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13:4117/06/2021
Will a US Digital Dollar Protect Privacy?
The question of digital currencies is a question of power. On today’s episode, NLW explores that power in multiple dimensions: between states, between states and companies and within states with regard to their citizens.
NLW looks at recent regulatory announcements, including:
The SEC leaving crypto off its regulatory priorities list
A House hearing on the digital dollar
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17:2116/06/2021
'Bat-Shit Crazy’ Paul Tudor Jones on the Fed, Inflation and Why He Recommends 5% in Bitcoin
Just when it seemed like the “Economic Empowerment” narrative coming out of El Salvador was poised to overtake the inflation/digital gold narrative, one of that viewpoint’s strongest advocates was back on CNBC today. Hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones discussed why he doesn’t think inflation is transitory, why he recommends 5% in bitcoin and why the outcomes in the market will be based largely on what the Fed does next.
Also on this episode:
Elon Musk says Tesla will accept BTC as payment again once renewable mining hits 50%
Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy sell $500 million in bonds to buy more BTC
More shockwaves from El Salvador’s landmark bitcoin law
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11:0215/06/2021
Is Bitcoin a Trojan Horse for Freedom?
This week’s “Long Reads Sunday” presents a reading of Human Rights Foundation CSO Alex Gladstein’s piece “Bitcoin Is a Trojan Horse for Freedom.” NLW contextualizes the piece with this week’s landmark legislation out of El Salvador and the concerns some international observers have about that country’s president.
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15:4713/06/2021
Bitcoin Is Economic Empowerment
On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at:
Why the El Salvador news didn’t (immediately) impact bitcoin’s price
How narratives set the tone for new entrants to the bitcoin market
How the digital gold/inflation narrative relates to the economic empowerment narrative
The bitcoin game theory for small nations to invest in bitcoin
How this could impact ESG critiques
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16:0712/06/2021
An Interview With Bitcoin Beach, the Community That Inspired El Salvador to Adopt the Bitcoin Standard
On today’s episode, NLW is joined by Mike Peterson, director of Bitcoin Beach. Bitcoin Beach is a community project in El Salvador that has spent the last two years helping individuals and companies integrate bitcoin into their daily lives and long-term habits. President Nayib Bukele cited Bitcoin Beach in inspiring El Salvador’s bitcoin legal tender law.
In this interview, NLW and Mike discuss:
How he came to reside in El Salvador
How the bitcoin community project started
What drove community adoption at the beginning
How remittances and COVID-19 solidified the value of BTC to the community
How bitcoin has changed how people think about investing
How international bitcoiners such as Miles Suter and Jack Mallers got to know the project
Where the project stands today (complete with 22 different community initiatives)
How bitcoiners can get involved
Find our guest online:Twitter: @BitcoinbeachWeb: www.bitcoinbeach.com
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42:4912/06/2021
The Empire Strikes Back: Inflation Hits 5% While Elizabeth Warren Goes After Bitcoin
In a week so filled with the optimism coming out of El Salvador, of course there had to be another side of the story.
On today’s episode, NLW looks at three examples of the existing power structure fighting back against the rise of crypto:
China shutting down mining in two provinces and apparent censorship of exchange-related terms on Baidu and Weibo
A CFTC commissioner’s extremely negative comments on decentralized finance
Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s full-throated assault on bitcoin from yesterday’s Senate Banking Committee hearing
Is bitcoin devolving to just another partisan issue?
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12:3211/06/2021
El Salvador Made Bitcoin Legal Tender As President Bukele Casually Chatted on Twitter Spaces
Last night, El Salvador voted to pass the bill making Bitcoin legal tender. As representatives debated the bill, the President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele and his brother and campaign manager Karim Bukele surprise-joined a Twitter Space hosted by Nic Carter, where the president would spend about an hour answering questions.
In today’s episode, NLW breaks down:
The substance of the bill
Specific elements of the plan from the Spaces chat - including Volcano mining and the Bitcoin cost of foreign residency
The historical significance of the moment for Bitcoin, media, El Salvador and more
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19:0210/06/2021
Biden’s Top Antitrust Adviser Is a Bitcoin Millionaire
On today’s episode, NLW looks at a grab bag of recent news:
El Salvador’s bitcoin announcement makes waves as politicians from six more Central and South American countries change their profiles to laser eyes
Donald Trump resurfaces to rip bitcoin again
No, the FBI didn’t break bitcoin
Why Tim Wu’s bitcoin holdings are intellectually consistent with his antitrust stance
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11:4109/06/2021
El Salvador to Become the First Bitcoin Country: Just How Big a Deal Is This?
On Saturday, the Bitcoin 2021 organizers teased that one of the biggest announcements in bitcoin’s history was coming.
That announcement ended up being from El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, who shared that he was advancing a bill to make bitcoin legal tender in the country.
Since then there has been a huge amount of debate and discussion about the implications and the significance of the move. In this episode, NLW breaks down the story from multiple angles.
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25:2508/06/2021
What a New Era of Big Government Could Mean for Bitcoin
A reading of David Z. Morris’ piece for CoinDesk “Has COVID-19 Made Biden’s Big Spending the New Normal?”.
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12:2306/06/2021
Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over?
Today on “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap” NLW looks at a growing number of predictions of a new “crypto winter” as well as some reviews of how companies and DAOs are preparing for that possibility. He shares poll results from whether Bitcoin Twitter thinks this bull market is over and discusses how the macro landscape may be playing into it.
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09:1805/06/2021
Who Matters More to Bitcoin: Whales or Plebs?
Today on the Brief:
May’s middling jobs report
A ransomware update
Square building a bitcoin hardware wallet
Our main discussion looks at the various constituencies within bitcoin and asks who has what type of power to shape the network. Specifically, NLW homes in on recent price action and the divergent actions of large holders and small holders over the month of May.
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14:2505/06/2021
Chinese State Media Indicates China Is NOT Banning Crypto Trading
Today’s episode looks at crypto in geopolitical context, focusing on:
A follow-up on the ransomware surge, with experts suggesting that it’s not about crypto payments but about the “ransomware-as-a-service” distribution model
A look at why a Russian opposition leader is moving his supporters to crypto fundraising exclusively
A review of a series of reports from Chinese state-owned media that, while trying to convince citizens to stay away, nevertheless reinforce they still have agency to own and trade crypto
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10:2804/06/2021
Ransomware Is The Next Big Bitcoin FUD
Today on the Brief:
China’s next digital yuan trial
More Bitcoin ETF delays
Standard Chartered to open crypto prime brokerage
Our main discussion focuses on the rise of ransomware. NLW examines:
The real reasons ransomware is on the rise
The factors beyond crypto payments that contribute to ransomware
Why some are using ransomware as justification for crypto bans
Why crypto bans would be painfully ineffective at stopping ransomware
Why the Biden Administration’s response to ransomware should give the crypto industry cause for optimism
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14:2203/06/2021
More Crypto Regulation Is Likely Coming, but Bans Are Not
Today’s episode includes a quick update on Marathon’s bitcoin mining about-face. Our main discussion focuses on the changing shape of crypto regulatory discussion in the U.S. While more regulation appears to be on the horizon, that regulation likely reduces the chance of more extreme actions.
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14:4702/06/2021
Revisiting Paul Tudor Jones’ ‘Great Monetary Inflation’ Thesis
A year ago this month, legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones released a paper about the “Great Monetary Inflation.” It set the entire narrative backdrop for the institutional move into bitcoin, and also revealed PTJ as a bitcoiner. This is a replay of NLW’s original episode breaking down why the paper mattered.
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27:1131/05/2021