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Nathaniel Whittemore
A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.
Was the Jumbo Rate Cut "Normalization" or Signs of Trouble Ahead?
The rate cutting cycle has finally arrived and Powell et al went for 50bps. In today's episode, NLW explores how much the decision was about rate normalization vs. brewing economic weakness
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14:5120/09/2024
Genius or Grifter: World Liberty Financial
Earlier this week, the crypto world got more direct information about the new DeFi platform backed by the Trumps, World Liberty Financial. NLW brings the highlights of the Twitter Spaces plus the community's reaction. Plus more pressure on Gensler around Airdrops.
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11:2819/09/2024
SEC Backs Off But Gaslights on "Crypto Asset Securities" Terminology
After being roundly spanked by a federal judge around their use of the term "crypto asset security," the SEC has apologized, but said they never meant the term to actually suggest that tokens themselves were securities. Plus an update on the basis point bets for the FOMC on Wednesday.
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13:1318/09/2024
Why Data Needs Decentralization
A reading and discussion inspired by https://blockworks.co/news/decentralization-for-data-security
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10:0117/09/2024
What the CPI Says About The Fed's Next Moves
Everyone in markets is confused about everything it seems. NLW explains the latest CPI numbers; what they mean for the upcoming FOMC meeting; and what it means for Bitcoin.
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13:0413/09/2024
What Happened in the First Ever Congressional DeFi Hearing
The House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on DeFi -- the first ever full Congressional hearing dedicated to the topic. Unsurprisingly and unfortunately, it was a highly partisan affair.
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12:1612/09/2024
The Story in the Latest Bitcoin Price Action
NLW explores what recent price action in crypto suggests about the state of markets.
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14:5611/09/2024
Recession or Soft Landing?
With a Fed rates cut all but assured, the question has shifted to whether it will be a 25bps or 50bps cut. Alongside that speculation is a competition for narrative interpretation. Soft-landing on the one hand, recession on the other.
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14:1410/09/2024
Crypto's Pervasive Quiet Quitting
A reading and discussion inspired by Ikigai's Travis Kling https://x.com/Travis_Kling/status/1830981118566244633
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13:0207/09/2024
Uniswap Settles with CFTC
Another day, another crypto settlement with the US government that seems designed to be about setting precedent for other enforcement cases more than actually protecting anyone.
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13:2306/09/2024
The SEC's Vicious "Qualified Custodian" Trap
What the Galois Capital settlement with the SEC means for crypto. Spoiler alert: it's not good.
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12:3705/09/2024
What September Has In Store For Bitcoin
September. On the one hand investors start coming back from the summer. On the other, it tends not to be a great month for markets. That's especially true in crypto, where September tends to be one of Bitcoin's worst months. With no strong narrative in sight, is history doomed to repeat?
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14:5504/09/2024
Bitcoin as a DeFi Platform
A reading and discussion inspired by https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-powerful-defi-potential
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07:2502/09/2024
Crypto and the Fight for Freedom
NLW and Scott Melker count down the five most important stories of the week.
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25:5731/08/2024
Is This the SEC's Most Brazen Crypto Attack Yet?
What's next, Pokemon and Magic the Gathering as securities? NLW covers the SEC sending a Wells Notice to Open Sea claiming NFTs are securities.
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14:2330/08/2024
The State Department's Unconscionable Abandonment of an American Citizen
NLW catches up on the latest on Binance exec Tigran Gambaryan's wrongful detention in Nigeria, where he's effectively being held hostage in an attempt to extract ransom from Binance.
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09:3429/08/2024
What We Learned (If Anything) From Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
NLW breaks down the Fed Chair's big moment at the end of last week. It's clear that the way is paved for the first cut of the cycle in September -- but could a jumbo 50bps cut be in the cards?
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11:5528/08/2024
Just How Big a Deal is the Arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov?
Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested over the weekend. NLW breaks down the news, possible interpretations, and the implications for free speech, technology and more.
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16:0127/08/2024
Jobs Revision Clears the Way for Fed Cuts
NLW catches up on the latest little hints of a Harris/Dem pivot on crypto, and also discusses the latest macro developments. TL;DR all systems go for the cutting cycle to begin in September.
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13:4523/08/2024
The Most Important Stories in Crypto You Probably Missed Recently
NLW covers the latest in Mt. Gox distributions, a DAO voting on an SEC settlement and much more.
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14:2021/08/2024
What the Gensler Treasury Secretary Rumors Say About Crypto's Current Mindset
Recently, a very loosely sourced article claimed that VP Harris was likely to name Gary Gensler as Treasury Secretary. NLW breaks down the news and what it's spreading suggests about the current psychology of the crypto space.
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11:1721/08/2024
Crypto Advocate Howard Lutnick to Head Trump Transition Team
Earlier this year, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick made news when he began discussing his company's relationship with Tether around their Treasury holdings. Now, he's back in the news as the co-chair of the Trump transition team.
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14:3520/08/2024
Crypto's Critics Seem to Be Getting Nervous
NLW notes that crypto critics have increased the rate at which their published op-eds -- perhaps a sign of the industry's rapid mainstreaming?
Featuring a reading and discussion of:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/opinion/crypto-trump.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/09/opinion/crypto-2024-election.html
https://bettermarkets.org/newsroom/ft-op-ed-kamala-harris-should-not-cave-to-overtures-from-the-crypto-crowd/
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17:4918/08/2024
What the Crypto Town Hall Told Us About the Democrat Pivot
A recent crypto themed town hall was meant to assure crypto democrats that a future potential Harris administration wouldn't be as hostile as the Biden White House to the industry. Did it succeed?
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12:2416/08/2024
VP Harris' Likely Economic Appointments Seem to Spell Doom for Crypto
As hopefully as many crypto dems have been about the potential for a reset relationship between Democrats and the industry, recent reports around likely economic appointments in a Harris administration have struck a dagger through that hope.
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14:0815/08/2024
Poll Numbers Show What Dems Really Think of Crypto
...and it's better than you might imagine. Plus more in the Coinbase vs. SEC saga.
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13:4314/08/2024
The SEC Goes After Crypto VCs
Thought Gary was done with crypto? Think again. A group of crypto VCs are in the SEC's crosshairs. Plus, the controversy around wBTC.
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13:4714/08/2024
The Great American Bitcoin Mining Plan
A reading and discussion inspired by https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/08/02/make-america-mine-again-how-donald-trumps-plan-for-us-bitcoin-dominance-could-trigger-a-new-digital-gold-rush/
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12:0812/08/2024
The Ripple-SEC Case is Finally Over
...and in the eyes of Ripple Labs and the crypto industry, it was a big win. NLW explains how it ended.
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12:5409/08/2024
What the Walz VP Pick Says About the Dem Approach to Crypto
Kamala Harris has chosen her VP candidate: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. NLW explores Walz history (or lack thereof) with crypto. Plus a continued update on the market meltdown.
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13:3408/08/2024
What Was That -- A Market Crash for Ants?
Wait, is that it? After all that fuss and bluster Monday didn't turn out nearly as bad as many had predicted. What's more, for once, no one blamed Bitcoin (even though it heralded the violent down move to come). NLW finishes off coverage of the recent market movements.
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12:3907/08/2024
What Drove the Market Crash
The market hemorrhaged on Monday, and it was preceded by a big move down in Bitcoin and crypto. NLW explains the most likely causes, including the Japanese Yen Carry trade unwind, the jobs report, and more.
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12:4406/08/2024
Powell Signals Rate Cuts Finally Coming in September
At yesterday's FOMC, the Fed held rates steady but Powell signaled a September cut to come. Still he left himself characteristic wiggle room. NLW covers it all on this macro focused episode.
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14:5201/08/2024
The Debate Around the Bitcoin Reserve
NLW catches up on the debate around a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, plus looks at the indictment of Nader al-Naji.
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13:3401/08/2024
Is the US Preparing to Sell Silk Road BTC?
Just days after Former President Trump pledges not to sell seized Bitcoin, the US government has around $2B worth of BTC on the move. Is it just custodial reshuffling or the prelude to a sale? And most of all, is it politically motivated?
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12:5931/07/2024
The Political Class Bends the Knee to Bitcoin
NLW covers speeches from President Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cynthia Lummis, Wiley Nickel and more from the Bitcoin Conference.
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15:1330/07/2024
Senator Bill Hagerty on the Stakes of the Election for Bitcoin
A reading and discussion inspired by https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/the-future-of-bitcoin-in-america-will-be-decided-at-the-ballot-box
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10:5826/07/2024
The Worst Day in Stonks Since 2024
NLW goes macro and looks at the fluttering in markets plus a variety of other signals which suggest rougher times on the horizon.
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17:1726/07/2024
ETH's Successful First Day ETF Launch
NLW covers day one of trading of the Ethereum Spot ETFs. Plus, no Kamala for The Bitcoin Conference.
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12:5625/07/2024
Ethereum ETFs Go Live!
NLW covers the first day of trading of the Ethereum Spot ETFs. Will they live up to expectations? Will they restart the bull market? Plus, Swan shifts plans.
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12:3924/07/2024
Does Biden Dropping Out Change Anything for Bitcoin?
President Biden announced via a letter shared to Twitter that he was officially leaving the presidential race. He also announced that he was endorsing his VP Kamala Harris to be the Democrat nominee. On this episode, NLW looks at the implications for crypto space, as well as providing a bit of a preview of the Bitcoin Conference coming up this week.
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12:4522/07/2024
Vitalik on Crypto Single Issue Voting
A reading and discussion inspired by https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/07/17/procrypto.html
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17:5122/07/2024
Should Bitcoiners Trust Politicians?
NLW and Scott Melker count down the five most important stories in crypto this week, with a special emphasis on the question that guided community discussion these week: how much should we trust these new political allies of ours.
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29:3020/07/2024
Mt. Gox Distribution Begins and Honeybadger Don't Care
After a decade of FUD, Mt. Gox bankruptcy distributions have finally begun. And yet, Bitcoin doesn't appear to be as scared of the reality of a distribution as the threat of it, at BTC hits a 6-week high.
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13:0618/07/2024
Republican VP Nominee on Bitcoin, Crypto and Gensler
NLW covers the crypto opinions (and disclosed BTC holdings) of new Republican VP nominee JD Vance. Plus BlackRock's Larry Fink has become Bitcoin's most effective promoter.
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12:3617/07/2024
The SEC Backs Off Another Crypto Enforcement Action
The SEC has dropped it's three year investigation into the Stacks ecosystem. It's a good outcome -- but at an absurd cost that simply shows how moribund and counterproductive the SEC's regulation by enforcement strategy has been.
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14:5816/07/2024
The Theory and Practice of Bitcoin Politics
In this LRS, NLW reads two op-eds about Bitcoin in politics. The first is about why Bitcoin doesn't care about politicians. The second is about how bitcoin could actually be used in the political process.
Read:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/liberty-doesnt-ask-for-permission
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/bitcoin-as-a-notarization-layer-for-political-agreements
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15:2815/07/2024
Trump Speaking At Bitcoin Conference
As pro-crypto Democrats tried to get more alignment and consideration between the Biden Administration and the crypto industry, Former President Trump announced that he will be speaking at the Bitcoin conference in a couple weeks. NLW provides the latest in crypto politics.
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14:1111/07/2024
Powell Inches Towards Rate Cuts
NLW does a macro roundup, including recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the possibility of increased unemployment and the need to move towards rate cuts. Plus a check in on politics in France, the UK and Argentina.
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18:1311/07/2024
For the First Time Ever, Crypto is an Official Part of a Major Political Party Platform
The GOP officially released their platform this week and crypto made the cut. NLW shares community reactions to the concise but frankly pretty encouraging section on cryptocurrency. A right to mine? A right to self-custody? Boy, how the times have changed.
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12:2810/07/2024