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Sharkey, Howes and Javer
Inside the Economy with SHJ
Inside the Economy: U.S. Economy & the Stock Market
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the U.S. economy and the stock market. With the most recent year over year inflation number coming in lower than expected, what does that mean for the U.S. economy moving forward and will inflation continue to soften as we move into 2023? The stock market has shown some life over the past 2 weeks, but how do the Mid Term elections and a strong dollar fit into the equation? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil hits $88 a barrel
Unemployment ticks up slightly
New mortgage rates above 7
11:5216/11/2022
Inside the Economy: Consumer, Corporate and Government Wallets
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at U.S. consumer, corporate and government data. Consumers have more in their checking and savings then they did pre pandemic. Inflation seems to be impacting some ways in which we spend but the aggregate remains up. Corporate profit margins remain elevated. Will the estimates continue to trend up into 2023? Tune in to learn more!
Key Takeaways:
2-year treasury yield is above 4%
30-year mortgages are above 7%
The federal deficit contracts from 2020 and 2021
11:2302/11/2022
Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve & Housing
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve & housing. With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in early November, the economy and the consumer are waiting to see where interest rates go. Will it be enough to dampen inflation as we move closer to 2023? The housing market continues to soften with mortgage rates above 7% and new loan applications at pre-pandemic lows. Why have prices remained steady and what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil is back above $85 per barrel
Jobless claims remain at lows
Outstanding consumer credit is on the rise
Manufacturing remains strong
12:5419/10/2022
Inside the Economy: The Next Phase in the Inflation Struggle
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a thorough look at the data. Treasury yields have continued to rise as the Federal Reserve maintains their mandate to break inflation and stabilize prices. The consumer is still spending, and the job market continues to remain strong. Where will the cost of money be at the end of the year? Tune in to learn more!
Key Takeaways:
2-year treasury yield is above 4%
30-year mortgages are closing in on 7%
Oil continues to decline, down almost 40% YTD
14:0105/10/2022
Inside the Economy: The Consumer & U.S. Economy
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil drops below $90
30-year mortgage rates above 6%
Natural gas prices continue to rise
Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows
10:5421/09/2022
Inside the Economy: Jobs & Housing
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and housing. Layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at low levels, along with increases in the labor participation rate. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have jumped as we continue to see mortgage rates increase and home prices adjust down, but how is this different from what we saw in 2008? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Jobless claims hold steady
Corporate profit margins on solid footing
Mortgages approaching 6%
Consumer spending starting to slow
08:4608/09/2022
Inside the Economy: Inflation & Housing
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation & housing. The Consumer Price Index shows us that inflation may have hit its peak, but goods and services spending remain strong and the Fed continues to show its willingness to raise rates to try to tame inflation. The supply of homes in the U.S. has risen as new loan applications fall with the increase in mortgage rates, but what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
US industrial production continues to rise
Used car market weakens
Oil hovering around $90
Mortgage rates back up above 5%
09:4924/08/2022
Inside the Economy: Consumer Debt & Real Estate
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt & real estate. Consumer debt continues to rise alongside a decline in the personal saving rate to pre-pandemic levels. Home prices have started to come down as mortgage rates rise above 5%, but what does this mean for new home buyers and the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
S&P 500 estimated earnings remain strong
Unemployment numbers shift lower
Oil back down to $90
Major indices trend up in July
00:1210/08/2022
Inside the Economy: Interest rates & Housing
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will dive a little deeper into June’s headline vs core inflation numbers. As oil drops below $100/barrel, will that signal the peak of inflation? In the housing market, loan applications decline to a level we haven’t seen in over two decades. Where will mortgage rates end up? Tune in to learn more!
Key Takeaways:
10-year treasury yield is around 2.9%
30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
Jobless claims tick up
13:1827/07/2022
Inside the Economy: Consumer Prices & Recession
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer prices and potential recession. As inflation continues to remain high, we are seeing increased gas & food prices but also lower logistics costs & home prices. What does that mean for our wallets in the coming months? There has been talk of recession, but what does that mean for the consumer and are there any surprises in the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
S&P 500 forecasted earnings remain strong
Oil back below $100
S. Dollar continues to strengthen
New U.S. manufacturing construction hits new highs
12:3913/07/2022
Inside the Economy: The Housing Market & Inflation
This week on “Inside the Economy”, all eyes continue to be on inflation as well as mortgage rates. We’ve seen energy, metals and other commodities trend lower, which should create some relief in the overall inflation numbers. As the Fed continues to raise short term rates, mortgage rates continue to climb. This is creating some softness in home prices and new homes being built. Will this impact the rental market? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways:
Oil falls off highs, down to $104 per barrel
30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
The 10-year treasury yield is above 3%
10:3429/06/2022
Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending & Housing
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and housing. With credit card spending on the rise and savings rates moving down, how long will this strong consumer spending last? Net home sales have seen a national pullback, and with mortgage rates in the high 5% range, where do we think the housing market is going? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings ratio adjusts down to 16
Oil above $120
Core inflation sitting at 6%
Unemployment rate of 3.6%
04:5715/06/2022
Inside the Economy: Inflation & Global Food Supply
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a full economic agenda including inflation, the stock market and news on global food supplies. Job openings continue to rise, and data suggest people 65 and older haven’t returned to the workforce since April 2020. Will we see this change due to higher gas and food prices? The stock market continues to experience volatility and how bad is the water crisis in the middle east? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways:
Oil remains above $100 per barrel
30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
The 10-year treasury yield falls to 2.85%
11:5218/05/2022
Inside the Economy: This is not the Recession
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the latest reports and economic data. First quarter GDP numbers surprised to the down side and reported as -1.4% year over year. The contraction in GDP largely was due to the trade imbalance and less government spending. Will we see more negative GDP numbers in Q2? We also look at rising yields and mortgage rates. Will the Federal Reserve aggressively continue their rate hike campaign and what does that mean for the global economy? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways:
Oil remains above $100 per barrel
30 year mortgage rates climb above 5%
The 10 year treasury yield reaches 3%.
10:2004/05/2022
Inside the Economy: Employment/Inflation
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Employment and Inflation. We are currently seeing elevated costs of employment, along with low jobless claims, but what does that mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to remain at elevated levels, but will the Federal Reserve raising interest rates help to bring it back down? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil above $100
Natural gas prices increase
30-year mortgage rates up to 5%
2021 average tax returns see a boost
12:0220/04/2022
Inside the Economy: Consumer Savings & Corporate Profits
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the consumer and corporate profits. The labor force participation rate is climbing and has almost returned to pre-pandemic lows. Mortgage rates are rising, up almost to 5% on a 30-year fixed. Will this impact household spending? How about savings? Corporate profit margins turned in another good quarter. Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil stays around $100 per barrel
Mortgage payment to income ratio climbs
Major indices have started to rebound from recent lows.
10:3306/04/2022
Inside the Economy: Cost of Money & Energy
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve and energy prices. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, how will that effect inflation and where do we think interest rates will be by the end of the year? Energy prices are sitting at elevated levels, but how long will this persist and what does supply look like going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil stays above $100
Equity markets rebound on earnings outlook
30-year mortgage rates up to 4%
Retail sales up 8% from pre pandemic levels
Unemployment under 4%
10:0323/03/2022
Inside the Economy: Ukraine
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the tragedy in Ukraine and the economic impacts it may have on a global scale. Oil prices have been rapidly increasing, will this continue? Is the real estate market a bubble or far from it? In other news, legal immigration gets back on trend after the pandemic. Tune in to learn why this is a good thing and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil climbs above $120 per barrel
30-year mortgage rates slide to 3.76
Russia holds very little U.S. Treasury securities
12:0908/03/2022
Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve and Spending
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the expected Fed rate hikes and spending within the economy. There is a lot of discussion on the potential for the Fed to begin raising rates starting in March 2022, but how much will they hike and what does that mean for the economy and the stock market? We are continuing to see all-time highs in retail sales. At what point does the supply finally catch up to the demand? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Mortgage rates cross over 4%
Core inflation comes in at 6% (YOY)
10 Year Treasury rises above 2%
U.S. petroleum consumption continues to decline
11:1722/02/2022
Inside the Economy: Job Market & Cost of Money
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the continuing shifts in the labor market as well as the expected Fed rate hikes. Total job openings remain higher than the unemployment levels. Employment costs continue to creep up year over year. This will probably continue as companies try to fill the gap. The first report for Q4 GDP comes in around 6.9%. What do we expect for 2022? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil climbs above $90 a barrel
Mortgage rates continue to rise
Time it takes to ship cargo remains near record highs.
09:3008/02/2022
Inside the Economy: Economy & The FED
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED meeting and the economy. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, what comments do we expect to see on inflation and interest rates, and how will that effect markets? The economy continues to move along nicely as we saw all-time highs in holiday sales and household spending continuing to rise, but where do supply chain issues, wages, and inflation factor into this story? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Equity markets turn down to start 2022
Crude Oil up past $85
Increase in mortgage rates
Inflation continuous to sit at elevated levels
09:3526/01/2022
Inside the Economy: All Eyes on the Consumer
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and the continuing expansion of the economy. With retail sales at all-time highs, credit card delinquencies at record lows, and savings accounts at peak levels, the US consumer has all the power in this economy. The question is, how long will these levels persist and will the consumer start to spend more of their hard-earned savings? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Equity markets fell to start 2022
Crude Oil rises to almost $80
US becomes top exporter of Liquid Natural Gas
Unemployment numbers fall under 4%
09:0812/01/2022
Inside the Economy: Inflation & Government Spending
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and government spending. We continue to see inflation at elevated levels, but with low wage growth, a strong dollar, and core services inflation sitting around 4%, where do we see inflation going in the future? State and Local Governments are seeing an uptick in revenues as they continue to get some help at the Federal level. But once the Covid Federal support for the consumer goes away, how much will they be on the hook for? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
S&P 500 Price/Earnings leveling off
Crude Oil continuing to stay around $70
Jobless Claims continue to decrease
10:3215/12/2021
Inside the Economy: Jobs & Savings
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a few different topics. Jobless claims are trending down and permanent job loss from 2020 has recovered quicker than in 2008 and 2001. Some countries have tapped into strategic oil reserves and the recent price decline reflects the impact of extra supply in the market. Estate Tax revenue has been cut in half since 2017. How will the government look to increase future revenue? Tune in to find out!
Key Takeaways:
Savings rate have reversed to pre-pandemic levels
10-year treasury is starting to tick up
M2 Money Supply continues to grow
08:2501/12/2021
Inside the Economy: Employment, Inflation & Recovery
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss numerous topics. Jobless claims continue to drop, trending towards pre-pandemic lows. Inflation numbers continue to make headlines. Is inflation coming from the push or pull side? What’s the difference? Revenue of the largest U.S. companies continues to trend upwards. How has the recovery been overseas? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
30-year mortgage rates slightly drop below 3%
Employment growth has favored higher educated workers
Oil inventories and demand are trending towards pre pandemic levels
11:1817/11/2021
Inside the Economy: The FED & Consumer is King
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED and the consumer. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, we are seeing the market has already reacted to the potential of raising of rates in the somewhat near future. But with the yield curve already flattening and mortgage rates rising, what do we anticipate from the FED over the next 12 months? The consumer is still King as we see consumer spending continuing to rise into the holidays, delinquency rates in single family homes moving down, home sales increasing, and unemployment numbers getting back to pre-covid levels. Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Projected US GDP comes in at 2.0 YOY for the 3rd Quarter 2021
Wages and salaries continue to increase at a steady pace
Crude Oil up to $83 due to tight supply
S&P 500 companies with record high profitability
12:1603/11/2021
Inside the Economy: The Individual Consumer & Continued Recovery
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the individual consumer and the ongoing recovery. We are continuing to see personal income rise, along with disposable income going to debt payments at all-time lows. Will this continue as we head into the winter months and 2022? We are seeing the fastest recovery in permanent job losses when compared to the last 2 recessions, continued housing price growth, and solid YTD returns in the equity markets. Why are there so many “We are Hiring” signs still on every block? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
US GDP comes in at 6.7 YOY for the 2nd Quarter 2021
Crude Oil prices hit $80
Unemployment numbers continue to come down
14:4419/10/2021
Inside the Economy: Holiday Spending & Economic Updates
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we gear up to follow and monitor holiday sales. Will this be a record year for sales? The stock market has seen some recent volatility due to a variety of headlines including corporate earnings revisions. Is this pull back healthy for the stock market long term? What is the annual wage of Chinese factory workers and what is the significance? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
30 year mortgages rise to around 3%
Household cash and cash-equivalents continue to climb
Grain prices begin to pull back
14:2206/10/2021
Inside the Economy: Inflation & Recovery
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Inflation and the continued economic recovery. With inflation on everyone’s mind, we discuss where it sits currently, why it’s hanging around 3.6, and what makes us think those levels won’t be here to stay. In regards to the continued economic recovery, we are seeing continued strength in equity markets, increasing rent prices in both apartment and single-family homes, and jobless claims continuing to decrease. Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
The yield curve flattens a touch over the past week
Crude Oil prices stay above 70
Steady increases in both Employee Compensation and Gov’t Social Benefits
11:5622/09/2021
Inside the Economy: Inflation Trends
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to analyze inflation. What are some of the key inflation indicators like money supply and the velocity of money telling us? In other topics, corporate revenues continue to climb. What does this mean for the equity markets? With so many people behind on rent, what will happen to the debt? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
30 year mortgages stay steady just below 3%
Texas is by far the biggest oil producer in the U.S.
Chinese stocks are at a 2005 low relative to U.S. Stocks
10:2525/08/2021
Inside the Economy: Recovery & Consumer Behavior
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the global recovery and consumer behavior. We are seeing the global economy get back on track with a rise in corporate profits, continued low unemployment numbers, and State Revenues recovering to pre-Covid levels. With the Delta Variant becoming more prevalent across the globe, will we see this pattern continue through the end of the year? Consumer behavior is also beginning to turn up as we see increased spending volumes, low average loan balances, and core inflation remaining elevated in the short term. Be sure to tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
2nd Quarter GDP comes in around 6.5%
Gas and oil markets begin to stabilize
Inventories remain at all-time lows due to supply issues
Corporate profit margins continue to recover
09:3910/08/2021
Inside the Economy: Housing & Spending
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a closer look at recent consumer spending trends. Spending has started to stabilize. What are consumers doing with their money? In other news, forbearance and eviction protection is coming to an end this week. Will it be extended? All eyes continue to be on the Federal Reserve. What will their next actions be? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
30 year mortgages continue to drop
The 2020 recession was shortest on record
Drought in the western states continue to pose problems
13:0427/07/2021
Inside the Economy: Inflation & Job Outlook
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and the jobs outlook. Core inflation has continued to rise, reaching about 3.4% YOY. Spending has remained muted, savings rates are at all-time highs, food and gas prices have risen, but with the Federal Reserve’s target still at 2%, where will inflation be at the end of the year? Job growth is rebounding faster than any other recession Post WWII, but when will we see full employment? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Personal savings rates continue to sit at all-time highs
Medium home prices remain high with low market supply
Low yields continue in investment-grade corporate bonds
2021 1st Quarter GDP estimate comes in at 6.4%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and the jobs outlook. Core inflation has continued to rise, reaching about 3.4% YOY. Spending has remained muted, savings rates are at all-time highs, food and gas prices have risen, but with the Federal Reserve’s target still at 2%, where will inflation be at the end of the year? Job growth is rebounding faster than any other recession Post WWII, but when will we see full employment? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Personal savings rates continue to sit at all-time highs
Medium home prices remain high with low market supply
Low yields continue in investment-grade corporate bonds
2021 1st Quarter GDP estimate comes in at 6.4%
10:0529/06/2021
Inside the Economy: Is Inflation Transitory or Here to Stay?
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a deeper look at inflation. With core inflation rising to 3.8%, is this price inflation in the market a long-term trend or transitory? Unemployment numbers continue to shrink as unemployment benefits lessen and folks get back to work. U.S. imports begin to increase again as demand for cars and other goods skyrocket. TSA Checkpoint travel numbers have drastically increased, showing that Americans are ready for a summer vacation. There is a major drought out West, which states and industries have been affected the most? Tune in to hear about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Unemployment numbers have dropped to 5.8% as unemployment benefits decrease
Corporate pensions are almost 100% funded, the first time since 2008
The U.S. Stock market continues to climb, showing drastic improvements since June 2020
TSA Traveler Throughput breached 2 million travelers in one day last week, the first time since March 2020
Arizona manufacturing, California farmland and the almond industry may have a difficult 2021 due to a Western drought
12:4916/06/2021
Inside the Economy: Inflation Outlook and Spending
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will address inflation and consumer spending. Core inflation year over year jumped in April. The Federal Reserve’s target is still 2%, where will it be at the end of the year? Spending is back to where it was, however, most consumers are still sitting on a lot of cash. Will this keep inflation at bay? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil is little changed despite the cybersecurity issue on east coast
30 year mortgages continue to steady
Hourly wages pick up as service industry reopens
The U.S. dollar is still the world reserve currency, by a lot
10:0818/05/2021
Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and Inflation
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the increase in consumer spending and the uptick in inflation. Inflation has seen a small increase, mainly driven from the current energy sector. There has been an increase in consumer spending, with the fastest pace of consumer spending on record this past March. The question is, will it continue and where is the money coming from? Personal savings has continued to grow to all-time highs as people continue to wait to spend money on travel, entertainment, etc. Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways:
U.S. Retail Sales rise at second fastest pace on record
Headline CPI grows higher, driven by energy, yet remains below 2%
Personal savings continue to grow to all-time highs
Earnings and profits drive stock market higher
12:5104/05/2021
Inside the Economy: Increased Inflation and the Housing Market
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recent change in inflation and the current housing market. There has been a boost in headline inflation, driven by rising fuel prices and increased travel. Is this trend here to stay or is it a temporary reaction? Personal savings grew over the last year, but consumers are looking to make up for lost time with increased spending in 2021. Low housing inventory is driving up prices, but which sector of the housing market has the lowest supply? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Retail Sales hit a new high after a year of increased savings
Headline CPI grows higher, driven by fuel prices, while Core CPI stays under 2%
Gasoline supply returns to pre-pandemic levels as travel improves
Sparce inventory in low-income housing has driven up prices, while interest rates remain low
State and local tax revenue continued to grow in 2020, despite the pandemic
09:2620/04/2021
Inside the Economy: The Plan for Spending and Excessive Savings
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the future of individual and government spending. Personal income has seen a boost in the last year, thanks to unemployment benefits and government stimulus. President Biden has released details for a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Where does he plan to spend the most money? Which tech giant has added over half a million jobs in the last year? Tune in to hear about all of this and more!
Key Takeaways:
GDP numbers continue to slowly increase
Biden’s Infrastructure plan includes spending $620 billion on transportation, with a large allotment to electric vehicles
Corporate profits continue to grow
In the last year, Amazon hired more employees than 136 other top companies combined
Corporate taxes are relatively low, but most likely will see an increase
10:0106/04/2021
Inside the Economy: Interest Rates and the Inflation Boogeyman
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current interest rate environment and fears of inflation. The 10 year treasury has continued to rise forcing bond prices lower. Where will the 10 year yield end up? Fears around inflation may be outweighing reality. The yield curve is steepening, but what does that mean? Will the new administration be able to close the funding gap? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil prices remain steady
Unemployment continues to trend in the right direction
The housing market is still robust
New business applications are on the rise
10:1223/03/2021
Inside the Economy: Debt Absorption and Rising Rates
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the nation’s debt levels and the direction of interest rates. The recent movement in Congress on another stimulus package will add another $1.9 trillion to the nation’s debt. Are these debt levels sustainable? What’s the impact of the debt and will it be manageable when interest rates rise? The stock market has experienced recent volatility, specifically in the tech sector. Where will the index be at the end of 2021? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways:
Current stimulus package is around 9% of GDP
Personal Income continues to rise due to stimulus checks
Oil prices reach mid $60s
Unemployment continues to decline
08:5609/03/2021
Inside the Economy: Inflation Status and the Bond Market
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the state of inflation and the future of the bond market. The yield curve continues to normalize as long-term interest rates slowly creep up. Overall inflation has stayed low, but there are sectors that have seen major price inflation. We are still in the midst of a bull market; how do the last 11 months compare to previous bull markets? Investment-grade bonds were a place of comfort during a volatile year, but has that changed in 2021? Tune in to learn more!
Key Take-aways:
Textbooks and college tuition led price inflation from 1996-2006
As industrial and manufacturing production return to pre-pandemic levels, so does U.S. imports and exports
The current bull market is up 75% from the low in March, the second largest bull market return
Leveraged loans and high-yield debt start the year off strong
Paying off all student debt would cost $1.5 trillion
13:4723/02/2021
Inside the Economy: The U.S. Consumer and Interest Rates
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recovery of consumer spending. Since the start of the pandemic, consumer spending is trending up and credit card balances are trending down. Will this continue in 2021 and what impact will it have on GDP? The Federal Reserve expects to keep rates low for at least 12-18 months. As the Fed continues to buy debt, what will that do to the yield curve and treasury markets? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways:
Oil prices are steadily increasing.
Fourth quarter GDP estimates are around 4%, we expect it to be revised higher.
30-year mortgages are still under 3%.
Unemployment steadily declines.
11:2910/02/2021
Inside the Economy: Where the Money is Spent and Saved
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine where U.S. citizens and the government are spending money. As the end of year numbers start to roll in, it looks like consumers did not hold back when it came to holiday spending. Part of that spending included an increase in imported goods, but one import is being left behind as the U.S. produces more stateside. Many public companies are sitting on a plethora of cash, but what about Americans and non-profits? The value of real estate continues to increase, but are the trends far off from what we have seen historically? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways:
We are importing more goods than ever, but less petroleum
Americans still have trillions of dollars sitting in savings accounts
Household asset values continue to climb, a lot in thanks to real estate values
Manufacturing has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels
The U.S. dollar is at its lowest point since 2018
11:5427/01/2021
Inside the Economy: Economic Data for the New Year
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the start of 2021 in terms of economic data. Unemployment holds steady around 6.7%. Manufacturing data continues to expand and improve. Oil prices break $50 to start the year. What impacts will Saudi Arabia and Russia have on the oil markets in 2021? Government debt continues to pile up. What are the risks and is it a problem? State revenues are looking better than projected. Will there be another stimulus? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways:
Annual Hiring is picking up
Oil prices break $50
The Federal Deficit continues to climb
Inflation is still muted, but treasury yields are creeping higher.
12:5312/01/2021
Inside the Economy: Overdue Rent and the First Wave of Debt
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the increasing amount of overdue rent and the current global debt situation. Over 11 million people have fallen behind on rent as the economy is still coping with the pandemic. There is a trend of Americans increasingly tapping into their home equity, is this a result of COVID-19, high home values, or low interest rates? In uncertain times, investors tend to collect cash, how have bank assets changed in the last 12 months? Debt accumulation has increased substantially compared to past years. Which countries have been acquiring the most debt in 2020? Tune in to hear about all this and more!
Key Take-aways:
11.4 million people currently owe on average $6,000 in back rent
Home equity withdrawals have hit the highest rate in 12 years
Community banks’ assets grew 11% and commercial banks’ grew almost 15% this year
Global manufacturing is picking up
Canada, Japan, United States and China have seen the largest increase in total debt this year
09:5215/12/2020
Inside the Economy: The Shift from Saving the Economy to Bettering it
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the path to recovery for the U.S. economy. The U.S. has been in damage control since COVID-19 shut down the economy earlier this year. As gross domestic product (GDP) numbers bounce back, the focus turns to those who are struggling to make rent and mortgage payments. How will the next stimulus package support those in fragile living situations? Third quarter consumer spending has boosted corporate profits, pushing the U.S. stocks higher. The corporate credit structure in China is a cause for concern, here’s what we are keeping an eye on. Tune in to learn more!
Key Take-aways:
Third quarter GDP estimates up a positive 33.1% for the quarter, while interest rates slip slightly
Americans are late to pay their rent and mortgages, with households in states like Kansas, Nevada and Wyoming being hit the hardest
Consumer spending boosts corporate profits by 27.1%
The U.S. dollar continues to decline
China’s corporate bonds are seeing a drop in price and increase in defaults
10:1401/12/2020
Inside the Economy: Consumers & Markets
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at data points on one of the most important pieces of the economy, the consumer. Retail sales continue to recover and climb higher with home fitness equipment and food delivery leading the charge. Will this trend continue with the rise in COVID cases across the U.S.? In the stock market, major indices continue to reach all time highs as volatility deflates. How will the stock market perform into 2021? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways:
Unemployment is down slightly
Core inflation is still mute.
Junk bond yields, reach lows not seen since 2014
The financial stress index has come back down to “normal” levels
Stock market indices continue to rise
07:5417/11/2020
Inside the Economy: Holiday Spending and State budgets
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look at consumer spending. Consumers are shifting dollars from restaurants and travel to household items, gifts and workout equipment. This is evident by Amazon beating their earnings estimates for the quarter. An underwhelming part of the economy is state budgets. The pandemic has left states in deficits because of the loss of tax revenue. What will they do to recover? Will the Federal Reserve step in and help? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways:
Consumers continue to spend more as the holidays approach
Inflation is still below 2%
Crude Oil is still below $40
Unemployment data remains high and we expect it to level off
The stock market indices experienced volatility in the days leading up to the election
11:5803/11/2020
Inside the Economy: An Improving Economy amongst COVID-19
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the improving job market and current debt trends during the coronavirus pandemic. Unemployment rates continue to improve as people get back to work and stop collecting unemployment benefits. A combination of spending less and uncertainty surrounding the future has Americans paying down debt. Where are debt delinquencies increasing and where are they decreasing? Many U.S. citizens are sitting on additional cash, but how much cash is currently sitting in the U.S. banking system? Corporations continue to issue new bonds as money remains “cheap” due to low interest rates. Tune in to hear about all of this and more!
Key Takeaways:
Unemployment rates and outstanding benefit claims continue to decrease
Unemployment benefits made-up over 30% of U.S. personal income, but has declined
Outstanding consumer debt has reduced as Americans pay off loans
There is currently over $12 trillion in cash sitting in American’s savings accounts
Gross corporate bond issuance in 2020 has exceeded years past
12:5723/09/2020
Inside the Economy: Unemployment, Foreclosures and COVID 19
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the employment trends. Unemployment remains high, however new jobs are being created in specific sectors. On a positive note, retail spending at non store retailers have increased year over year. Will this trend continue? The extra $600 per month of Federal unemployment has stopped and to no surprise, mortgage delinquencies are on the rise. We also look at remittances to Mexico, the dollar and gold prices. Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways:
Unemployment remains high overall, but in pockets of the job market hiring is robust
Retail spending continues to trend upwards
Foreclosures and evictions are starting to increase
Workers in the US are sending more money back to Mexico to support families
Less oil transactions and international tourism are a few factors contributing to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices
12:1725/08/2020