The Arizona governor is calling for new limits on construction in the Phoenix suburbs due to a dwindling supply of groundwater. Governor Katie Hobbs announced a pause on new subdivisions that don’t have a proven source of water. The policy comes after an analysis that says the supply of groundwater will fall short of demand over the next 100 years.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Growth Putting Pressure on Water Supply   Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the U.S. with more than 1.6-million people, but the entire metro area has closer to 5-million people. Those suburbs and outlying areas are also growing rapidly, and putting more and more pressure on groundwater supplies that do not replenish rapidly, especially during times of drought.   The city’s groundwater analysis involved tests on more than 40,000 wells, along with the testing of aquifers and streamflows. Those tests show that water levels will fall about 185 feet across the entire basin over the next century. Outlying areas that are closer to the mountains will see a bigger decline in those levels.   As reported by the Washington Post, the outflow of water is expected to exceed the inflow by a factor of 1.4 or 140%. The unmet demand would be about 4% or close to 5-million acre-feet of water over 100 years.    One acre foot is about 326,000 gallons. A typical home might use half- to one-acre foot per year. At one acre-foot per home, about 50,000 homes would run dry in the Phoenix area over that 100 year period. At a half-acre foot, it would be more like 100,000 homes. Those are very rough figures.   New Policy Requires Water Assurances   To address the issue, Governor Hobbs announced that any new development projects will have to have proven water supplies. And many Phoenix area cities already have them, such as Scottsdale, Mesa, Gilbert, and Goodyear. But more rural communities that rely on groundwater don’t have those assurances. Former Phoenix mayor Terry Goddard says: “You can’t build unless you know exactly where the water is coming from.”   Developments that have already been approved can still move forward, but those cities are also scrambling to be sure they have adequate water for the decades ahead. Places like the town of Queen Creek, east of Phoenix, is working on a way to import water and meet demands for mushrooming growth. According to the Post, the town is spending $27 million to buy Colorado River water from a farm elsewhere in Arizona.  It also made a deal for groundwater in another part of the state.   The town’s water resource director, Paul Gardner, says the town has about 10,000 lots ready to build, and water has been secured for those homes. But the city is working on ways to import water for other parts of the project, and while water importation will help solve the problem, Gardener also says the water price tag is rising.   One of several landowners involved with development projects expects the cost of water to add as much as $15,000 to $25,000 to each home. Dan Reeb told the Post: “Arizona has gotten very good at stamping out four-bed, two-and-a-half bath, three-car garage homes, and a great job to go with it.” But he says: “It’s not going to be as inexpensive and simple as it has been for the last 50 years of phenomenal growth.”   Massive Development Project on Hold   One massive development plan in Buckeye called Teravalis is now on hold. Plans call for some 100,000 homes on 37,000 acres for what would be the largest planned community in Arizona. But most of the property currently lacks the necessary water supply approvals.   Buckeye officials are working on a solution, and they insist that their water future is secure. A big part of their plan is an $80-million deal to purchase groundwater from another rural part of the state.    Each town, city and/or region is dealing with its own water supply problem, so there’s a difference in how well they are each solving this problem. While some cities have already invested a lot of money in their water supplies, newer communities that rely on groundwater are having to rethink their options.   In addition to informing residents about the water situation, Governor Hobbs is also offering assurances that the city won’t be running out of water anytime soon. She says: “We are not running out of water and we will not be running out of water. We have to close this gap and find efficiencies in our water use.”   Sharon Megdal of the Water Resources Research Center at the University of Arizona says it’s a matter of responsible growth. She says: “What these models are suggesting is that the patterns of growth may change.” She says: “It’s part of our reality check, an appropriate one, that we make sure the people buying these homes can be confident that the water is there.”   Groundwater as Key to the Future   An Arizona State University professor doesn’t feel that the issue is being addressed as a major priority. He told the Post: “I’m incredibly concerned. I don’t think that people, and this is everyone, the general public, but right up to our water managers and elected officials, really understand now that groundwater is the key to our future.” (2)   It’s a reality check for states and cities across the west, including those who draw water from the drought-stricken Colorado River. The Colorado River supplies drinking water to 40-million people along with hydroelectric power to millions. As the two states using the most water from the Colorado River, California and Arizona are part of a preliminary deal to conserve and reallocate water from the river. Nevada is also part of that preliminary deal, but the seven states drawing from the river also include Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico along with 30 Tribal Nations. (3)   Under that agreement, California, Arizona, and Nevada would conserve 3-million acre-feet of water over three years. That’s expected to be enough water savings to protect reservoirs through 2026 when the states and the federal government hope to come up with a more comprehensive plan on how the river water will be shared.   You can read more about this by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. And please subscribe to the podcast to keep up to date on stories that impact you, your family, and your future. You can also join RealWealth for free to learn how to create a future that will support you with real estate income.   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/01/phoenix-water-shortage-population-growth/   2 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/22/colorado-river-water-conservation-deal-states/?itid=ap_joshuapartlow   3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/22/colorado-river-water-conservation-deal-states/?itid=ap_joshuapartlow

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending June 3rd, 2023... a new surge in job openings and job creation, a big drop in investor activity, and a new legal battle over short-term rentals in New York City.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news and several reports on the strength of the job market. The government reports that companies created a whopping 339,000 new jobs in May. That’s a sign of strength for the job market, but the report also shows a surge in unemployment from 3.4% to 3.7%. That’s the highest jobless reading since October. Some economists see that as a potential warning sign.   But job market resilience is also showing up in a report on job openings which rose from a revised 9.7 million in March to a three-month high of 10.1 million in April. Wall Street Journal economists had forecast a drop in job openings to 9.5 million. (1)   Job openings increased the most for retail, health care, transportation, and warehousing. They were down for manufacturing, government, leisure and hospitality. When comparing job openings to the number of unemployed workers, they rose in April from 1.7 to 1.8 openings per person. The Fed would like to see those numbers at a pre-pandemic level of 1.2. (2)   The weekly unemployment report shows only a slight increase in claims. Applications were up 2,000 to 232,000. The takeaway from all this – the labor market is showing strength overall, with businesses hiring and no word of major layoffs. That’s not exactly what the Fed wants to see. It’s hoping for a weakening of the job market in its fight against inflation. (3)   Builders are among those contributing to job market strength. The Commerce Department reports that construction spending was up 1.2% in April. That’s much higher than a Wall Street forecast of .1%. The numbers break down to a .5% monthly increase for private residential construction but that includes a .8% decrease for single-family and a .6% increase for multi-family. The construction industry contributed 64,000 of those new jobs in May. (4)   Home prices are still moving higher. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index shows a .4% increase in March. The Southeast shows the strongest price growth, thanks to strong demand for housing and potential sellers who don’t want to list their homes right now. The 20-city index was up .5%. A few of the cities showing the strongest price growth were Tampa at 4.8%, Charlotte at 4.7%, and Atlanta at 4.5%. On the flip side, Seattle prices are down 12.4%. San Francisco prices have also fallen by almost as much at 11.2%. (5)   Consumers are showing more concern about the economy. The Conference Board says consumer confidence was down in May to a six-month low. (6)   Mortgage Rates   High mortgage rates are one of the things consumers are worried about. And they spiked a bit last week ahead of another potential rate hike by the Fed this month. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 22 basis points to 6.79%. The 15-year was up 21 points to 6.18%. (7)    In other news making headlines…   Record Slowdown for Investor Home Purchases   Many investors are sitting on the sidelines as interest rates rise and home values fall. Redfin says investor home purchases shrank almost 50% year-over-year in the first quarter. But investors are still accumulating a large share of homes, buying up 18% of homes that sold in the first quarter. That’s higher than pre-pandemic percentages, but down slightly from a peak of 20% last year. (8)   The Redfin analysis covers 40 of the most populated metros in the nation, and includes both institutional and individual investors. But one Redfin agent says there isn’t much activity from the Wall Street investors. The agent from Jacksonville, Florida, says: “Some smaller companies and mom-and-pop investors are still active in the market, but the big corporations aren’t buying anymore.”   Redfin expects to see investor activity slow further as interest rates rise. Of course, investors with cash aren’t feeling that kind of restraint.    Short-Term Rental War Heats Up in New York City   The battle over short-term rentals is escalating in New York City. Airbnb is suing the city for what it says is an “extreme and oppressive” law that the city plans to begin enforcing next month. It claims that the law is confusing and conflicts with Federal law that protects websites from liability for content posted by users. The New York Times also reports that three Airbnb hosts have filed similar lawsuits for a law that they say is too complicated.    The Big Apple is a huge market for Airbnb with more than 38,500 active listings and $85 million in revenue last year. The company argues that short-term rentals are important for tourism and for hosts who need extra income. The city says it is committed to preserving permanent housing as it deals with a lack of housing for residents.   Other cities have fought similar short-term rental battles including Santa Monica, Boston, and San Francisco. Airbnb worked out a deal in Santa Monica to be sure that listings are registered with the City, and according to the Times, Santa Monica is currently looking at ways to expand the number of legal Airbnb listings.   You can get more information on all these stories by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. I also encourage anyone who hasn’t subscribed to the podcast to please do so, and leave a review!    When you are at our website, you can become a member for free and have access to hundreds of webinars about real estate investing, and lots of information about single-family rental markets and how to build your own investment portfolio – even in a tough market like we’re seeing today!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-openings-rise-to-3-month-high-in-more-bad-news-for-the-fed-3b42f0a3?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-shows-big-339-000-gain-in-may-b90df90b   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-inch-up-to-232-000-but-no-sign-of-major-layoffs-907b8b8d   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-construction-spending-and-hiring-still-going-strong-3fbaa9f3?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-rise-squeezed-by-fewer-listings-case-shiller-index-finds-6ba5cf70?mod=mw_latestnews   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-slips-to-six-month-low-americans-gloomy-about-economy-6b20538e?mod=economy-politics   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q1-2023/   9 - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/nyregion/airbnb-sues-nyc-rentals.html

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 27th, 2023... you’ll get the latest reading on inflation, how much home prices have come down in a year, and the long-awaited opening of Amazon’s HQ2.    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. Minutes from the Fed’s May meeting offer a few insights. They reveal that several officials believe we may not need more rate hikes to get inflation back down to the 2% level. Forward guidance also indicates a pause in hikes at the June meeting, although some Fed officials say rate hikes have not been ruled out. (1) And, with the latest report on inflation, there’s new concern that the Fed could be inclined to hike rates again.    The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the April reading on the PCE index. It shows it going in the wrong direction ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. The index was up .4% and raises the annual rate from 4.2% to 4.4%. The core rate was also a disappointment. It eliminates prices for food and fuel, and was up .4% to an annual rate of 4.7%. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, so it will play an important role in their next rate hike decision. (2)   The Fed minutes also offer a recession forecast, predicting a mild recession in the fourth quarter of this year. A moderately priced recovery would follow with unemployment set to increase this year, and then peak next year. Those numbers would start coming down in 2025, according to Fed officials. But they also acknowledged that the impact of the tightening process would be lagging, and that close monitoring of incoming data is essential. (3)   Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester spoke out on Friday after the PCE was released, and said the data shows the Fed has “more work to do.” She believes that the central bank will need to rate rates again, while other Fed officials appear to be undecided. (4)   Jobless claims pulled back from the previous week, after a major crackdown on fraudulent claims in Massachusetts. The latest report shows 229,000 applications for benefits. That’s up 4,000 from the revised numbers for that surge in claims. As MarketWatch reports: “Jobless claims show little or no sign of rising U.S. layoffs since the early spring.” (5)   Consumer spending has kept a recession at bay, and April was no exception. Consumers shelled out .8% more money in April, which was double the amount that Wall Street Journal analysts had forecast. A lot of the money went toward new cars, but also for travel, recreation, and other services. As reported by MarketWatch, that’s a sign of confidence in the economy. (6)   Consumers also spent money buying new homes. New home sales were up 4.1% in April, according to the Commerce Department. That brings the annual rate up to 683,000 from a revised 656,000 in March. That number is seasonally adjusted, and reflects the “pace” of construction and how many homes would be built if that pace continued for the entire year. (7)   One thing driving consumers to new homes is the low inventory of existing for-sale homes. The National Association of Realtors reports that pending home sales were flat for the month of April thanks to a shortage of those homes, and high mortgage rates. (8)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates have continued to rise. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 18 basis points to 6.57%. The 15-year was up 22 points to 5.97%. (9) The Mortgage News Daily reports a higher average of 7.14% for the 30-year and 6.54% for the 15-year. (10)   In other news making headlines…   High Home Prices Slowly Deflating   Although home buyers are still struggling with affordability issues, home prices are deflating. Redfin reports that U.S. prices are down about 4.1% nationwide or close to $18,000 for the average home. That brings the median sale price down from $426,000 last year, to approximately $408,000 this year. (11)   But some markets are seeing steeper declines, mostly because prices went sky-high previously, especially during the pandemic. In Oakland, for example, prices have come down 16% or about $174,000 for a typical home. In Boise, Idaho, the average home costs about $80,000 less than it did at the same time last year. And some markets have actually seen prices rise over the past year. According to Redfin, Tampa home prices were up 5.0% in April compared to last year, selling for a median price of $420K. On average, homes in Tampa sell after 22 days on the market compared to 7 days last year.    Amazon HQ2 Is Now Open for Business!   It was five years ago that Amazon solicited bids from various cities as it searched for the perfect place to build a second headquarters. Well, the day has finally arrived that Amazon’s HQ2 has launched, and is welcoming its first employees.   The winning city was Arlington, Virginia which now has more than two million square feet of new Amazon office space. The company has been bringing employees into temporary office space and is now transferring them to the new complex. Amazon expects to have 8,000 people working there by this fall, with a total of 12,500 working there eventually.   Starting May 1st, Amazon required that employees work in offices at least three days a week. The new digs feature some amazing amenities however including two rooftop dog parks and a 2.5 acre park with another dog park. That’s because Amazon employees are allowed to bring their dogs to work! Not so for children, although Amazon helps employees find good childcare.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com and learn more about real estate investing.    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/several-fed-officials-said-more-rate-hikes-may-not-be-needed-and-other-key-takeaways-from-may-minutes-5b3ae0ab   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-prices-rise-sharply-pce-shows-in-sign-fight-vs-inflation-has-stalled-3214dfac   3 - https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/fomc-minutes-staff-predicts-recession.html#:~:text=May%2024%2C%202023-,FOMC%20Minutes%3A%20Staff%20Predicts%20Recession%20Starting%20in%20Q4%3B%20Future%20Monetary,May%202%2D3%2C%202023.   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mester-says-pce-shows-fed-has-more-work-to-do-on-interest-rates-60a1057c   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-register-a-low-229-000-in-late-may-after-fraudulent-filings-removed-49c20a31   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-spending-far-from-dead-americans-ring-up-cash-registers-in-april-4513ef3a   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-rise-4-1-in-april-as-buyers-contend-with-a-tough-resale-market-5d24e81b   8 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lack-of-homes-for-sale-stalls-sales-in-april-as-mortgage-rates-top-7-77b570f9   9 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   10 - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/   11 - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-median-home-price-is-nearly-%2418000-lower-than-a-year-ago 12 - https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/office/amazon-employees-start-working-in-new-hq2-buildings-119056

It’s another dose of bad news for office space providers. Researchers had previously estimated that remote work would take a 28% bite out of office values by 2029, but they apparently underestimated the impact. They are now predicting the decline will be closer to 44%. On the flip side of that coin, a drop in values will also make it easier for at least some of those buildings to be converted to badly needed housing, with the help of government incentives.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   As Bisnow reports, researchers had reported last year that office values would lose about $500 billion in value over ten years, from 2019 to 2029. Now those academic researchers from New York University and Columbia University are saying that office values have already surpassed that amount in just three years, from 2019 through last year. (1)   Half a Trillion Dollar Loss in Value   In New York City, values were down about $70 billion. In San Francisco, the loss in value was more like $33 billion. And in Charlotte, it was about $5 billion. Their research estimated a total of $506 billion, or more than half a trillion dollars, in lost value for the entire nation.   Researcher Arpit Gupta says of the update: “The primary reason for the change is that we now estimate a more persistent work from home regime than before.” He also says that researchers took into account work-from-home rates for various cities and says that New York was hit hard because of a high number of remote workers.   Lost Tax Revenue, Lifeless City Centers   Office owners aren’t the only ones grappling with this situation. Cities are also dealing with lost tax revenue and downtown corridors that appear lifeless as office space sits empty. Unfortunately, not all office space is suitable for a conversion, and conversions are expensive.   According to Josh Bernstien of Bernstein Management in the New York Times, just one in 20 office buildings in Washington, D.C. would be suitable for a conversion. And then the conversion might cost a whopping $400 to $500 a square foot. Bernstein says that it’s often the case that building from scratch would cost less. (2)   Most Office Space is Not Suitable for Conversion   The Times cited a Moody’s analysis that found only three percent of the buildings it tracked would be candidates for conversion because the median rent is so low. In New York, the median rent is just $55 a square foot. The analysis shows that only 36% of the office properties roughly match that value. And then on top of that, there’s the cost of the conversion which includes design issues. As the Times reports, offices may have columns that are 20 feet apart, huge open areas, and windows that don’t open.   But, there is a growing trend to turn at least some of the now empty office space into housing. And state and local governments are recognizing the need for incentives. (3)   States, Cities Incentivize Conversion Projects   California is one of them with a $400 million program. Chicago is another. It’s making almost $200 million available for developers in “tax increment financing” or TIFs. The Department of Transportation website describes a TIF as: “A value capture revenue tool.” It says: “The TIF creates funding for public or private projects by borrowing against the future increase in these property-tax revenues. The intent is for the improvement to enhance the value of existing properties and encourage new development in the district.” (4)   Bisnow reports that the opportunities exist for these so-called “Office-to-Resi” projects and that developers are showing interest, so long as there’s public money to subsidize them. A big decline in office values will also help make these conversions more affordable.   Researchers say the key takeaway from all of this is that: “Remote work is shaping up to massively disrupt the value of commercial office real estate in the short and medium term.”    For real estate investors, when one door shuts, another opens. And the trend to convert office space to residential units is an opportunity, especially when it comes with government incentives. You can read more about this by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. If you haven’t become a RealWealth member, hit the Join for Free button to learn more about real estate investing. It’s easy to sign up, and will just take a minute.   And please remember to subscribe to this podcast!    Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news/office/persistent-wfh-could-wipe-44-from-office-values-by-2029-119082   2 - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/business/what-would-it-take-to-turn-more-offices-into-housing.html​​   3 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/office/more-cities-are-giving-away-money-for-office-to-resi-projects-as-threat-of-obsolescence-grows-118474   4 - https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ipd/value_capture/defined/tax_increment_financing.aspx

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 20th, 2023... what the Fed Chief is saying about interest rates and potential rate cuts, how the FHFA is responding to a controversy over new rules for home loan fees, and why mall owners have become interested in pickleball.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and the Fed chief’s response to predictions about what the central bank plans to do next. Jerome Powell spoke out at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and said that Fed officials have made “no” decision yet on their next move. Many economists are expecting a pause in rate hikes, but the Fed is determined to bring inflation back down to the 2% level, no matter what. A decision would be made after the Federal Open Market Committee evaluates “all” the most recent data. (1)   Powell may have also dashed a few hopes for rate cuts later this year. He says: “The data has continued to support the FOMC’s view that bringing inflation down will take “some time” and that rate cuts simply are not part of the Fed’s current forecast. But he also says that interest rates are currently high enough to slow economic growth, and hopefully tamp down inflation without further credit tightening.   Meantime, the U.S. leading economic index, or LEI, shows a decline in April, for the 13th month in a row. The declines have pointed toward a potential recession, but so far, that hasn’t happened. The index was down .6% last month with eight of the ten economic indicators showing a decline. (2)   Initial jobless claims were down last week, thanks to an effort in Massachusetts to reduce fraudulent claims. They fell from 264,000 the previous week to 242,000 last week. Overall, they have been slowly rising since January. The number of continuing claims was also down by about 8,000 with about 1.8 million people collecting benefits. (3)   New home construction was higher in April, thanks to an outsized demand among consumers, despite high interest rates. The government says they rose 2.2% for the month with more activity in the Midwest and the West. That’s for both multi-family construction, which was up 5.2%, and single-family, which was up 1.6%. Building permits were down, however, by 1.5%. (4)   The home builders confidence index also reflected a positive outlook among builders. The National Association of Home Builders say the index was up five points to a central balance point of 50 in May. Anything above 50 is positive, and below 50, negative. The reading for May is the first time it’s been out of negative territory in almost a year. (5)   The latest report for existing home sales is for February, and according to the National Association of Realtors, it surged 14.5% as interest rates experienced a temporary dip. It was the biggest monthly increase since July of 2020 when sales skyrocketed 22.4%. NAR says that single-family sales are currently at their highest level since the association started tracking them in 1999. (6)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates are still moving sideways. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up just 4 basis points, to 6.39%. The 15-year was unchanged at 5.75%. (7)   In other news making headlines...   FHFA Rescinds New DTI Fee Structure   The FHFA is rethinking its controversial new up-front fee structure for single-family home loans which placed more importance on a borrower’s debt-to-income ratio than it did on credit score. The government finance agency has now rescinded the new fee structure for Fannie and Freddie loans, and is asking for input on the goals and policy priorities that the FHFA should pursue in regards to an upgrade of the pricing framework. (8)   When the FHFA announced the previously upgraded pricing structure, there was an outcry from real estate organizations, including the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, and others. It kinda blew up in the media, because it appeared to raise the fees for people with higher credit scores while lowering fees for low income borrowers, and gave the appearance of an unfair fee subsidy.    The FHFA denies that the fee structure was based on the idea of a subsidy. But it is now accepting feedback from the public on how to adjust the fee structure to better reflect loan risk in order to protect Fannie and Freddie against those risks, and without unnecessary expense for borrowers, especially those struggling with affordability issues.   Mall Owners Filling Empty Stores with Pickleball Courts!   Mall owners have a new strategy to fill vacant stores and attract more people. They are turning to the fast-growing sport of pickleball, and replacing shuttered stores like Bed, Bath, and Beyond with pickleball courts! (9)   The combination satisfies a need on both sides as consumers gravitate toward locations that offer fun, social experiences and not just a place to shop. Malls have already been incorporating things like theaters, arcades, and amusement parks into their shopping locations. So now, they are adding pickleball, and other experience-based activities like skydiving and virtual golf.   Pickleball is currently the nation’s fastest growing sport. As reported by CNN and the Sports & Fitness Industry Association, it’s up 159% over three years to 8.9 million players in 2022.   That’s it for this episode of the Real Estate News for Investors. Please check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. If you want to learn more about investing in real estate, be sure to hit the “Join for Free” button, and check out how RealWealth can help you create a cash-flowing real estate portfolio. And don’t forget to subscribe to our podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-says-progress-on-bringing-down-inflation-will-be-slow-452edc06?mod=mw_latestnews   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/slowing-u-s-economy-gets-closer-to-recession-leading-index-signals-bac107f3?mod=economic-report   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-to-242-000-as-massachusetts-battles-fraud-dc71930f?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-rise-2-2-in-april-3062a768?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-confidence-rises-for-fifth-consecutive-month-amid-ongoing-shortage-of-u-s-homes-for-sale-a41d33ba?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-sales-rise-for-the-first-time-in-13-months-surging-14-5-in-february-12603067   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.fhfa.gov//Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Requests-Input-on-the-Enterprises-Single-Family-Pricing-Framework.aspx   9 - https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/13/business/pickleball-malls-retail-bed-bath-beyond/index.html

A Senate hearing on recent bank failures turned into a prickly confrontation between bank executives and lawmakers. Former leadership for Silicon Valley, Signature, and First Republic Banks were hammered by lawmakers about why their banks collapsed. And there wasn’t a lot of agreement on the cause. Bank executives blamed the government and the media, while lawmakers blamed mismanagement and greed.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Silicon Valley Bank made the biggest splash as the first bank to fall with about $210 billion in assets. Signature bank had about $110 billion when it was seized by regulators. They were the third and fourth largest banks in the U.S. so their failures raised huge concerns about the impact on the entire financial system. First Republic went south and teetered for a few months after it lost billions in deposits, and was largely taken over by JPMorgan.   SVB CEO Blamed a Series of “Unprecedented Events”   In a joint session before the Senate Banking Committee, former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker pointed a finger at the federal government, saying the bank’s failure was the result of a series of “unprecedented events.” He testified that: “With near zero-percent interest rates and the largest government sponsored economic stimulus in history, more than $5 trillion in new deposits flooded into commercial banks. By the end of 2020, SBV had grown 63 percent over the prior year, and in 2021, SVB’s assets grew another 83 percent to $212 billion.” (1)   He also pointed out that during the pandemic, when inflation started to become an issue, the Federal Reserve insisted that inflation was “transitory” and that interest rates would remain low.   Massive Bank Run at SVB   The bank’s collapse largely happened after a decision to invest more than half of the bank’s loan portfolio into fixed-income Treasury securities, when interest rates were low. They are considered “low risk” but they are also impacted by interest rate hikes. When interest rates blew up to fight inflation, the value of SVB’s portfolio shrank and that forced the bank to sell at a $2 billion loss. When news spread about the bank’s situation, depositors became concerned about accessing their funds and the bank experienced a massive bank run.    Media Misconceptions   Becker also blamed the media for comparing the March 8th failure of Silvergate Bank to Silicon Valley Bank. He told lawmakers that the two banks had completely different business models, and said: “Rumors and misconceptions quickly spread online, culminating on March 9th with the first-ever social media bank run leading to more than $42 billion in deposits being withdrawn from SVB in 10 hours, or $1 million every second.”   Two More Dominoes to Fall   Former Signature Bank Chairman Scott Shay was miffed that his bank was seized by New York State regulators on March 12th. He insisted that the bank would have survived that bank run. He argued: “We were at all times solvent and well-capitalized, and even with the sale of our available-for-sale securities, we still would have remained well capitalized.”   Former First Republic CEO Mike Roffler also blamed social media and news stories for inciting panic among depositors along with technology that allows for fast-paced digital withdrawals. Roffler told lawmakers: “The contagion spread very quickly and panic is very hard to control.” (2)   Lawmakers Blame Mismanagement, Greed   But lawmakers also took the conversation in a different direction, criticizing bank leaders for millions of dollars in bonuses and personal stock sales ahead of the failures. Senator Sherrod Brown ripped into Becker saying: “Workers face consequences, executives ride off into the sunset. Only in corporate boardrooms can you run your business into the ground, take the whole economy along with you and come out ahead. We can’t let that happen again.”   Some lawmakers said that bank executives could have reduced the risk by hedging their portfolios, but that they, instead, placed profits ahead of safety. As explained in a Washington Post article, Silicon Valley Bank had financed short-term liabilities with long-term debt. It seemed like a no-brainer when interest rates were low, and to be fair, there was a lot of talk about interest rates remaining low for a very long time. But when the Fed started hiking rates, the value of those Treasurys went down. Lawmakers say the bank could have swapped those longer-term notes for one with shorter-terms that match the duration of the bank’s liabilities. But they say the banks didn’t do that because it would have been more expensive. (3)   Sharp Words from Some Senators   The session became downright nasty at times. Senator John Kenney of Louisiana had sharp words for what he called SVB’s “stupidity.” He told Becker: “You made a really stupid bet that went bad, didn’t ya? And the taxpayers of America had to pick up the tab for your stupidity, didn’t they?” (4)   He continued saying: “No, this wasn’t unprecedented. This was bone-deep, down-to-the-marrow stupid. You put all your eggs in one basket and unless you lived on the International Space Station you could see that interest rates were rising and that you weren’t hedged.”   Let’s hope we’ve seen the last of this kind of banking madness. You can read more about this by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com.    I always encourage listeners to hedge their own financial empire with real estate. You can learn how to invest in rental properties at RealWealth. Becoming a member is free and will give you access to all our educational material as well as our investor portal with valuable data on rental markets, sample properties, and help from our investment counselors who can answer your questions. Just hit the “Join for Free” button.   And please remember to subscribe to this podcast!    Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   If you’re a RealWealth member, just sign into the portal and look for DealCheck under the Resources tab. If you aren’t a member, it’s free and easy to sign up. And, please remember to subscribe to this podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy    Links:   1 - https://commercialobserver.com/2023/05/svb-signature-ceos-blame-federal-govt-media-bank-failures/   2 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/05/17/lawmaker-blasts-first-republic-chief-you-were-one-of-3-worst-run-banks-in-us/?sh=256ad3e18d07   3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/15/svb-s-fateful-mistake-could-be-lurking-in-your-401-k/0f139944-c31b-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html 4 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 13th, 2023... some good news about inflation, how a U.S. debt default might impact housing, and a new Gallup Poll on investor preferences.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with two inflation reports from this past week. The first was a report on the Consumer Price Index for April. The CPI shows a .4% rise in consumer prices which is a slight increase from the previous month, but it brought the annual rate below 5% for the first time in two years. It hit a high of 9.1% last summer, but is now down to 4.9%. The core rate, which omits food and fuel, was also down .4%, with an annual rate of 5.5%. Shelter prices rose the most, but those prices are slowing down. It’s interesting to note that the three-month annualized rate is now at 3.2%. (1)   Producer prices are also coming down. The Labor Department reported a .2% increase in the Producer Price Index for April, with an annual rate of 2.3%. The PPI’s core rate was also down .2% but the annual rate is a bit higher, at 3.4%. As MarketWatch reports: “Inflation is moderating at the consumer and producer levels. This is adding to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further at the next meeting in mid-June.” (2)   The Fed’s preferred report on inflation, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index or PCE, will play a big role in what the Fed does next. That’s coming out at the end of this month.   Weekly jobless claims were a surprise on the upside, with 240,000 people filing for benefits. They were 22,000 higher than they were for the previous week. Economists had only expected an increase of 3,000. That’s the highest number of claims since October of 2021. The numbers have been steadily rising since January, for a total of 1.81 million continuing claims. Higher numbers indicate a softening of the job market and slower wage growth which the Fed wants to see in its fight against inflation. (3)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates are still idling in the lower 6% range. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basis points to 6.35% this last week. The 15-year was down one point to 5.75%. (4) Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, says: “A recent sideways trend in mortgage rates is a welcome departure from the record increases of last year.” (5)   In other news making headlines…   Mortgage Rates Would Skyrocket if U.S. Defaults on Debt   As lawmakers haggle over the debt ceiling, there’s concern about what would happen if they don’t come to an agreement and the government defaults. According to Zillow, it would have a devastating impact on the housing market, with mortgage rates potentially rising to 8.4%. That would increase a typical mortgage payment by 22%. (6)   Zillow says if mortgage rates get to the 8% level, existing home sales could fall from April’s 4.3 million to around 3.3 million in September. That’s a 23% drop. Zillow’s senior economist, Jeff Tucker, acknowledges that a default is “unlikely” but if it did happen, he says it would send the housing market into a “deep freeze.”   It is hoped that President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy will hammer out a deal by June 1st. In a Bloomberg interview, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: “There is no satisfactory solution for the U.S. that’s good for the economy and financial markets other than Congress acting to raise the debt ceiling.”   Fed’s Rate Hikes Are Now Hurting the Housing Market   Housing economists are not happy about the latest rate hike. The Fed hiked short-term rates another quarter point to a range of 5 to 5.25%. The National Association of Realtors’ Lawrence Yun and the National Association of Home Builders’ Robert Dietz call it “disappointing.” They say the high rates are freezing loan activity and hurting the economy. (7)   They say that consumer prices have been coming down for months and the last rate hike wasn’t necessary. Yun says that: “Regional banks are an important source of loans – but they are frozen.” He says: “They are shuffling their balance sheets and figuring out what to do.”   Dietz says that higher rates are making it harder for developers to build homes, which are badly needed to boost inventory. He says: “We need to be building more than 1.1 million homes a year to haVe a meaningful impact on the lack of inventory.”    Real Estate Still a Top Investment Choice, but Lead is Shrinking   A recent Gallup poll shows that real estate is still a top investment choice, but the lead is shrinking. In 2022, 45% of the participants said that real estate is the best long-term investment. This year, that percentage shrank to just 34%. (8)   Many consumers have turned to gold, which has now taken second place and pushed stocks into third. Gold was favored by 26% this year, compared to 15% last year. Stocks dropped from 24% last year to 18% this year. Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds are up slightly but they are still in fourth place.    Gallup asked some of the participants about crypto, but that has lost its luster with the recent collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, and a decline in crypto prices, especially for bitcoin. Only 4% of Americans are choosing crypto. Last year, it was 8%.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links, and the “Join for Free” button to become a member of RealWealth. It’s free to join, and you’ll have full access to our website including our investor portal where you can check out various rental property markets and find out how to make real estate work for you in this tough environment.   And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-price-inflation-cools-to-lowest-rate-in-two-years-in-april-ef69d854?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-april-producer-prices-rise-2-3-over-past-year-smallest-increase-since-january-2021-8afa903e?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-hit-264-000-in-latest-week-highest-level-since-last-october-d63852a4?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   5 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-are-steadily-edging-downward   6 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/12/us-default-would-send-mortgage-rates-past-8/   7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/housing-economists-fed-policy-now-hurting-real-estate   8 - https://news.gallup.com/poll/505592/real-estate-lead-best-investment-shrinks-gold-rises.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 6th, 2023… why economists are expecting a rate hike pause, where homeowners are paying the most and the least for their mortgages, and new home search help from a chatbot!   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and the big news is, of course, the Fed’s rate hike. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee followed through on an expected quarter point hike to the overnight lending rate, which puts the target range between 5 and 5.25%. It was the 10th rate hike in a row and a unanimous decision among committee members, despite calls for a pause from some Congressional lawmakers. (1)   The Fed also appeared to suggest that it might now be time for a pause, by eliminating a sentence that says “some” additional rate hikes may be needed. Instead, the statement kind of hedged on the idea of rate hikes by saying that any further rate hikes would depend on “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affect economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” Economists are interpreting that to mean that the Fed is prepared to take a more “dovish” approach at its next policy meeting. As MarketWatch puts it, the Fed is “on hold.”    Fed Chief Jerome Powell also said in his press conference after the meeting that: “We are no longer saying we anticipate” rate hikes. He says: “We will be driven by incoming data, meeting by meeting.” (2)   Some economists say the Fed has already gone too far. Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, is one of them. He called last week’s rate hike “unnecessary and harmful.”   Yun says inflation has been coming down and will continue to do so. He says: “It will be even lower as the heavyweight component to inflation, which is rent, will inevitably slow down given the robust, 40-year high in construction of new apartment units.” He also says that many small banks are struggling right now. He says: “They are becoming zombie-like banks, unable to lend even to good businesses, as they are more concerned with balance sheet shuffling for survival.” (3)   Meanwhile, there are new signs that the job market is softening. Initial claims were up 13,000 to a total of 242,000. That’s up from about 200,000 in January. Continuing claims were down, however, by 38,000 to a total of 1.81 million. (4) The April jobs report also shows that the job market is still going strong. It shows that companies increased the number of available positions by 253,000. Wall Street economists had anticipated the addition of just 180,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.5% to 3.4%. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates dipped a little this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basic points to 6.39%. The 15-year was up five points to 5.76%. (6)   In other news making headlines…   The Average Monthly Mortgage Payment   The average monthly mortgage payment is now $2,317. Lending Tree’s latest study shows that the average U.S. home buyer needs a mortgage of $333,342 with the highest amounts needed in the District of Columbia, Washington State, and California. (7)   High priced states skew the averages however, so you need to look at the individual states to see how affordable they are. The three states with the lowest average mortgage amounts are West Virginia, Kentucky, and Michigan. In West Virginia, the average is just $1,700.   Homeownership Not a Priority Among Most Renters   A majority of renters don’t see homeownership in their future. Online brokerage Home Bay conducted a survey that shows about two-thirds say they have lost hope in owning a home, although half of the respondents said that homeownership is “very important.” Given their current situation, they’d prefer to spend their money on other things. The top three priorities are paying down debt, having a comfortable retirement, and owning a car. (8)   Among the renters who want to own a home, a third are willing to pay a high price to do that including many who said they’d skip meals or sell their plasma. Two thirds also said they would take on a second job.   Zillow, Redfin Launch ChatGPT Plugin   Searching for a home could get a little easier with the help of a chatbot. Both Zillow and Redfin announced that users will be able to get a ChatGPT plugin that will allow them to describe homes and have the chatbot show relevant listings. The OpenAI website says that only a small number of users have access to the plugins right now, but you can add your name to a waitlist. (9)   That’s it for this week’s News Brief. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth while you are at our website by hitting the “join for free” button. Membership gives you full access to our Investor Portal where you can see sample properties and connect with our network of real estate professionals, including our RealWealthinvestment counselors.   And please remember to subscribe to our podcast!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-we-learned-from-powells-press-conference-after-latest-fed-rate-hike-4863f055?mod=federal-reserve   3 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/yun-latest-fed-hike-unnecessary-and-harmful   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-13-000-to-242-000-and-show-hints-of-labor-market-softening-41d5e71b?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-up-0-3-in-march-546e0768?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/the-average-monthly-mortgage-payment-is-above-2300   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/04/renters-say-homeownership-is-hopeless-how-theyre-spending-instead.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate   ​​9 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/04/redfin-zillow-adopt-chatgpt-plugins/  

When it comes to renting a home, landlords may see many more applicants with pets than they do parents with children. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of households with pets is almost double the number of households with children. That’s a trend that impacts the rental market as well as the home buying market, as pet owners look for housing and neighborhoods that will accommodate the needs of their children, and their pets.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Census data shows that the number of families with kids under the age of 18 has been declining over the past 20 years. Last year, in 2022, just 40% of households had children. That’s down from 48% in 2002. A RisMedia article suggests two reasons for the decline: One, because birth rates have been shrinking over the last few decades, except for an increase in just the last year; And two, because baby boomers still comprise a large share of U.S. households, but at this point, with no kids.   Pet Households Rise and Kid Households Decline   As households with children have dwindled, those with pets have been rising. The American Pet Products Association says that, back in 1988, 56% of households had a pet which was most likely a dog or a cat. Today, about 70% of U.S. households have pets. Although the number has been steadily rising over the years, many people adopted pets during the pandemic and continue to lavish time and money on their pet companions.    The BLS American Time Survey shows that the share of Americans who spend daily time with their pets grew from about 13% in 2003 to almost 20% in 2021, with women spending more time on pets than the men. Americans are also spending more money on their pets. The American Pet Products Association says the expenditure has grown from about $53 billion in 2012 to $123 billion in 2021.   The Importance of Pets in Real Estate Decisions   With that kind of time and money being lavished on our pet companions, it’s not that surprising to think that pet owners will place great importance on the well-being of their pets in their home buying process or their rental decisions. According to the National Association of Realtors, almost one-third of unmarried homebuyers will consider their pet when they decide on a neighborhood. About 14% of married couples will factor that in.   When it comes to gender, 25% of single women want a pet-friendly neighborhood compared to 16% of men. Pet friendly neighborhoods are ones with a high walkability score, access to parks and recreation areas, and homes with bigger yards.   Renting to Tenants with Pets   As a landlord, it has become more important to accommodate pets, but you should also have clear, comprehensive rules written into the lease agreement. The California Apartment Association offers a Pet Addendum that can help landlords and property managers protect their property and the safety and cleanliness of their rental community in general.   Among the key components of the addendum is a requirement that renters get a landlord’s written consent before they bring a pet onto the premises. The addendum also requires detailed information about the pet including type, breed, name, sex, age, size, and a description or photograph. This can help with record-keeping. If there are local pet ordinances, the tenant should agree to comply with those. There should also be guidelines for the disposal of any pet waste on the rental property and the maintenance of litter boxes.   We’ll have a link to the addendum, and the data on households with children and pets in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. I also ask that listeners become RealWealth members to find out more about the creation of rental property income. It’s free to join at our website. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.rismedia.com/2023/05/08/stunning-stat-more-pets-than-kids-home/ 2 - https://caanet.org/allowing-a-pet-be-sure-to-use-caas-pet-addendum/

March wasn’t a great month for investor home sales. A new Redfin report shows that one in every seven homes sold by investors was sold at a loss. That’s 14% of investor sales or about triple the number from a year earlier, and the highest level of investor home sale losses since 2016. But there is a catch! These sales were mostly for investors who bought more recently and sold after a short length of time, such as flippers.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   The housing market has slowed dramatically as home prices and mortgage rates make it tough to buy, and in some areas and for some people, tough to invest. It’s important to remember that the report is based on national statistics, and that six in seven of those real estate investors made money on sales, although their gains may have been smaller.   Typical Gains for Investor Home Sales   Redfin says the typical investor who sold a home in March, sold it for about 46% more than they paid. That’s down from a little over 55% in March of last year. Profit will likely be less than that, because of other costs, like renovations.   Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari says: “You might wonder why investors don’t just wait to sell until the housing market bounces back. Many long-term investors who rent their properties are doing that, but many flippers–especially those who bought recently–can’t afford to.” She says: “Holding onto homes that aren’t producing income can be expensive because the owner is on the hook for property taxes, operating costs, and in many cases, mortgage payments.”   Phoenix Redfin agent Van Welborn says: “Home flippers aren’t reaping the gains they used to.”   Flippers More Likely to Report Losses   If you narrow the overall results of the Redfin study down to “just” flippers, Redfin says that one in five sold at a loss in March. Redfin defines a flipper as someone who bought and sold a home within a nine-month time frame.    Holding long-term will likely produce much better results, although the median U.S. asking rent has been slowing. It was down .4% year-over-year in March but that is also the first time it’s gone down in three years. Redfin agents say that Airbnb operators are also hurting in some markets, and have had to sell.   Flippers Lose More in Pandemic Boomtowns   Places where investors are more likely to sell at a loss are the pandemic boomtowns like Phoenix and Las Vegas. In Phoenix, 31% sold at a loss in March. In Las Vegas, that percentage was more like 28%.    The report says that many of the sellers are mom-and-pop investors who are worried about where the market is headed, possibly remembering what happened in 2008. But today’s housing market is nothing like it was in 2008, and real estate is still a solid investment over the long term. Many institutional investors see it that way. Instead of selling, many are holding on to their properties and waiting for buying opportunities.   My Formula for Real Estate Wealth Redfin says that 10% of the homes on the market right now are for sale by investors. That’s higher than at any time before or during the pandemic but down from a peak of 12.4% last year. My formula for real estate wealth is to buy wisely and hold on to your properties long-term, especially now when there’s such strong demand for single-family rentals.    At RealWealth we encourage the use of a platform called DealCheck for a thorough analysis of a deal before you close on it. DealCheck is a powerful property analysis platform that’s easy to use, and provides instant details on a property’s cash flow, cap rate, ROI, profit from a sale, acquisition cost, and other helpful information.   If you’re a RealWealth member, just sign into the portal and look for DealCheck under the Resources tab. If you aren’t a member, it’s free and easy to sign up. And, please remember to subscribe to this podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy    Links:   1 - https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowner-tenure-2022/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 29th, 2023... you’ll get mixed news on inflation, results for the first quarter GDP, and a rate hike in South America that you never want to see here!   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   Let’s begin our economic review with the latest inflation report. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index for March was released on Friday and showed a tiny .1% increase in overall inflation. That brought the yearly rate down from 5.1% in February to 4.2% in March – the lowest it’s been since May of last year. But unfortunately, the news wasn’t as good for the PCE’s core rate. When you omit prices for food and gas, the core rate rose .3%, and brought the annual rate down from 4.7% to 4.6%. As MarketWatch reports, the core rate hasn’t changed much for the last five months. (1)   The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and will be an important factor in determining whether to hike interest rates again this week. It’s generally believed that the central bank will hike rates another quarter point, but it’s a delicate situation because the economy is teetering on the brink of a recession. As Bill Adams of Comerica told MarketWatch: “The Fed is stuck between raising interest rates and likely pushing the economy into a recession… or pausing and risking that inflation accelerates in a few quarters if the economy regains momentum and sticky prices stay high.”   First quarter GDP is out. It shows the economy grew at a rate of 1.1%. That’s down from a GDP of 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending has been strong, but was offset by spending cautiousness among businesses. Home construction and sales are also a drag on the GDP, thanks to higher mortgage rates. But MarketWatch says the biggest impact on the GDP was a lack of inventory growth. Business inventories were down $138 Billion. If that had not been the case, and inventory growth remained flat, the GDP would have reportedly been much higher, at 3.4%. (2)   Jobless claims reversed course this last week and fell an unexpected 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000. Economists had expected them to rise slightly. The report shows that the job market is still strong, which feeds into the Fed’s concern about inflation. Continuing claims were also down 3,000 to 1.86 million. (3)   Housing demand and a lack of existing home inventory drove new home sales higher in March, despite high mortgage rates. The Commerce Department says they were up 9.6% for the month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000. The surge was mostly driven by new home sales in the Northeast. The median price for a home was $449,800. Chief Economist, Lisa Sturtevant, at Bright MLS, says that about one in three homes for sale are new builds. Historically, it’s more like one in 10. (4)   Although the sale of existing homes has been rising over the last several months, they fell in March. The National Association of Realtors says contract signings were down 5.2% for the month which is more than economists had predicted. NAR says about a third of the listings are seeing multiple bids, and 28% are selling for more than the asking price. (5)   The February report on home prices by Case Schiller shows the national index was up .2% for the month, and 2% for the year. That’s the smallest increase in home price growth since 2012. (6)   Mortgage Rates   NAR says that realtors are predicting that mortgage rates will hit 6% this year, and 5.6% next year. But they aren’t there yet. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was up 4 basis points this last week, to 6.43%. The 15-year was down 5 points to 5.71%. (7)   In other news making headlines…   Study: Home Demand Rises After Periods of High Inflation   The desire to own a home will likely increase thanks to inflation. The results of a new study by UC San Diego show that the inflation we’re seeing today will have a lasting impact on the housing market, with many people buying homes to protect themselves from future price growth. The study claims to be the first of its kind to show that personal experience with inflation will lead to home ownership. (8)   One of the study co-authors says: “We think one reason people choose to buy instead of rent is because they are worried about future inflation, which may drive up both rent and house prices.” She says: “Our paper suggests that cohorts living through the current inflationary period will have a higher demand for housing for years to come.”   Huge Rate Hike in Argentina as Inflation Soars   As the American consumer worries about inflation and another rate hike when the Fed meets this week, consider this:   The Argentina central bank just hiked short-term rates 300 basis points to an annual rate of 81%! That’s in response to surging inflation that hit 104% in March.   Argentine officials had hoped to cut rates this year after a difficult tightening cycle in 2022, but inflation has returned with a vengeance. Argentina has one of the world’s highest inflation rates right now. JP Morgan is predicting that Argentina’s inflation will hit 130% by the end of the year. (9)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth to learn more about real estate investing by hitting the “Join for Free” button. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-slows-again-pce-shows-2bc60ce7?mod=economy-politics   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-quarter-gdp-climbs-at-1-1-pace-a8fac9e6?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-in-latest-week-395a0675?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-surge-9-6-in-march-as-home-buyers-turn-to-builders-c384df9d?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-fall-for-the-first-time-since-november-d56869cd?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-prices-rise-for-first-time-in-8-months-case-shiller-says-62cb2876?mod=mw_latestnews   7 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-central-bank-hikes-interest-153626211.html   8 - https://today.ucsd.edu/story/living-through-high-inflation-increases-home-ownership   9 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-central-bank-hikes-interest-153626211.html

Fannie and Freddie are changing some rules that could make home loans more expensive for people with high credit scores, and less expensive for those at the low-end of that spectrum. Critics say the rules amount to an unfair subsidy for high-risk borrowers, but the GSE’s say it’s a misconception about what they are changing.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   You may have seen the headlines already. One says: “A Bigger Subsidy for Risky Mortgages.” Another says: “Upside Down Mortgage Policy.” Another says this new policy will “screw Up the Homebuying Market.”   The headlines refer to a new rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency regarding loan-level price adjustments or LLPAs for conventional loans. They officially kick in on May 1st, although some lenders have already been incorporating them into their fee structures.    What’s an LLPA?   If you have a mortgage that’s backed by Fannie or Freddie, you have paid or are paying this fee. LLPAS are fees that the government-sponsored enterprises charge when they buy loans from lenders. The fee is passed on to borrowers as a percentage of the loan and the amount is based on the borrower’s risk factors such as credit score and down payment. People with higher risk factors pay higher LLPAs, and they can be paid up front or with higher monthly mortgage payments.    Business Insider offers a few examples of how the new pricing structure will impact borrowers.    1 - Someone who might see an increase could have a credit score of 700 with a 20% down payment for a $300,000 loan. They would have previously paid 1.25% of that loan amount or $3,750. With the new fee structure, they’d pay 1.375% or $4,125, which is an increase of $375. (1)   2 - Someone who might see a decrease could have a credit score of 780 but a down payment of just 3%. Previously, they would have paid .75% on a $300,000 loan or $2,250. With the new rules, they’d pay .135% or $375. That’s a $1,875 reduction.   NAR, NAHB Opposed to the New Rule   The National Association of Realtors is among those criticizing the rule change. It is encouraging the FHFA to rescind the new rule especially given the affordability issues facing home buyers. It suggests instead that: “The GSEs could simply reduce the fees for (higher risk) borrowers and maintain the others at the same cost—especially given the sharp decline in affordability over the last year.” (2)   National Association of Home Builders CEO, Jerry Howard, told Newsweek: "In the short term, this may increase homeownership among the targeted group, but I'm afraid it could decrease homeownership among the middle class. I'm not sure that we're not robbing Peter to pay Paul here." (3)   FHFA Defends New Rules   FHFA Director Sandra Thompson issued a press release this week to “set the record straight.” She says: “Much of what has been reported advances a fundamental misunderstanding about the fees charged by the GSEs and why they were updated.” She says the pricing structure hadn’t been updated for many years, and the new pricing structure is the result of a 2021 review. (4)   The goal: “To maintain support for purchase borrowers limited by income or wealth, ensure a level playing field for large and small lenders, foster capital accumulation at the Enterprises, and achieve commercially viable returns on capital over time.”   The overhaul has been done in steps over the last 18 months, beginning with fee increases for loans on second homes, high balance loans, and cash-out refi’s. Then some fees were eliminated for first-time homebuyers with lower incomes but the means to meet their loan obligations. She says in her statement that this latest step is a recalibration of upfront tees that will make the housing finance system more resilient.   Among the misconceptions, she says:   1 - Stronger credit borrowers are not subsidizing weak credit borrowers. She claims that fees generally increase for lower credit scores, despite the down payment.   2 - She says the new fee structure does not raise the fees for all low-risk borrowers. She says many borrowers with high credit scores or high down payments will see no change in their fees or even a decrease.   3 - She says the old framework was not perfectly calibrated to risk. She says it was essentially outdated, and is now better aligned for the performance of a mortgage relative to its risk.   4 - The new rules do not encourage low-income borrowers to pay a lower down payment to benefit from lower fees because they will also have to pay mortgage insurance premiums.   5 - The elimination of upfront fees is not for people with lower credit scores but for borrowers with lower incomes, and she says they are essentially supported by the loan fees for second homes and cash-out refi’s (and not by good credit, high down payment borrowers).   6 - The changes are not intended to stimulate mortgage demand, but rather to advance the soundness and safety of the GSE’s.   The old and new fee structures are listed on the Fannie Mae website. You’ll find links to those tables in the show notes if you’d like to compare. (5) (6)   Impact on Real Estate Investors   So how does this impact real estate investors?   Shawn Huss of Warsaw Federal told RealWealth: “For investment lending, it has helped out in some situations with better pricing when you have a greater down payment or a two to four unit. For a multi-unit, Fannie used to charge 1.0 points in additional pricing. Now if an investor’s credit score is 780 or higher, it is only .375%. Another example is pricing used to be 2.125 points in pricing for 70% loan-to-value.  With the new pricing, at 70%, the pricing is better by .50 points which helps with lower rates.”   The new pricing structure only impacts conventional loans – not jumbo loans, FHA mortgages, or other non-conforming loans.   You’ll find links to the stories I mentioned at newsforinvestors.com including the charts from Fannie Mae where you can compare the two pricing structures.   And please, remember to hit the Join for Free button at RealWealth and subscribe to our podcast.   Thanks for listening, Kathy   Links:   1 - https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/biden-fhfa-new-mortgage-fee-structure-2023-4   2 - https://www.nar.realtor/washington-report/nar-advocates-for-fhfa-to-maintain-affordability-for-all-homebuyers   3 - https://www.newsweek.com/biden-raises-costs-homebuyers-good-credit-help-risky-borrowers-1795700   4 - https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Statement-from-FHFA-Director-Sandra-Thompson-on-Mortgage-Pricing.aspx   5 - https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/33201/display   6 - https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/9391/display

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 22nd, 2023… we have two new forecasts on whether we’ll see a recession this year, some good news about the cost of construction materials, and a report that shows how much wealthier you are if you own instead of rent.    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with a look at economic news from the past week. There are a few new reports predicting that we’ll have a “mild” recession in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s leading economic indicator index, or LEI, was down for a 12th month in a row in March. It fell 1.2%, which is the biggest decline in the last three years, according to MarketWatch. The index is a compilation of 10 indicators. One Conference Board manager says: “Economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the U.S. economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.” (1)   Fannie Mae economists are also predicting a recession later this year. The GSE’s Economic and Strategic Research Group says the economy is “running out of steam.” Although the economy got off to a strong start this year, the ESR group expects to see an economic contraction during the second half of 2023. Fannie Mae’s chief economist Doug Duncan, says: “The economic slowdown has resumed – whether the end result is a modest recession or simply a soft landing remains unanswered.” He attributes much of his optimism to the strength of the housing market, saying: “The greater-than-expected resilience of the housing sector to the affordability pressures of higher home prices and mortgage rates is central to our expectation that the recession will be modest.” (2)   The Labor Department reported another weekly increase in jobless applications, which are now at their highest level since the end of 2021. Initial claims were up another 5,000 to a total of 245,000. That’s still an historically low number. Continuing claims also jumped a bit. They were up 61,000 to a total of 1.87 million. (3)   Housing starts were down .8% in March, to a rate of 1.52 million. The drop is mostly due to a slowdown in condo construction which fell 6.7%. Starts for single-family homes offset that a bit with an increase of 2.7%. Permits for single-family homes were also higher, by 4.1% while permits for multi-family buildings were down almost 25%. The pullback in apartment construction follows a red-hot building streak over the last several months. (4)    Builders are feeling more confident about the market as demand grows for new homes. The National Association of Home Builders says its monthly confidence index was up one point to 45 in April. It’s the fourth month that the index has gone higher, and it’s now the strongest it’s been since September of last year. Demand is strong because the inventory for existing homes is so low. (5)   Meantime, existing home sales were down 2.4% in March, to an annual rate of 4.44 million. Compared with March of last year, they are down 22%. Prices are also falling which means that current homeowners would lose some of their equity if they sold now. The National Association of Realtors says that prices were down 1% in March, which is the biggest monthly drop in a decade. That’s a national number. A recent report from Black Knight says that prices are falling in the West but rising in the East. Prices are falling the most in cities that experienced a pandemic housing market boom. (6) (7)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates started rising again this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 12 basis points to 3.69%. The 15-year was up 22 points to 5.76%. (8)   In other news making headlines…   Prices Dipping for Construction Materials    Prices for construction materials are finally coming back to earth. According to an analysis by the Associated Builders and Contractors group, they are lower today than they were a year ago. It’s the first year-over-year decrease we’ve seen in more than 18 months. Construction Dive says that building costs are still almost 40% higher than they were right before the pandemic struck. (9)   Costs for some individual construction materials remain high, however. Bisnow reports that concrete is up 14.5% from a year ago. Construction machinery and equipment is also about 12% higher. Prices are also fluctuating a lot from month to month. Chief Economist Ken Simonson for the Association General Contractors of America told Construction Dive that: “Contractors remain wary about committing to projects” because of the price volatility.   Some contractors are also putting the brakes on hiring. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 50% drop in construction job openings at the start of this year.   Homeowner vs. Renter Wealth Report   Many homeowners are becoming much wealthier than renters, thanks to an increase in their home equity. A study by the National Association of Realtors shows that over the last decade, homeowners became more than 40 times wealthier than the average renter because of that equity. (10)   The average gain since 2012 is about $99,000 for low income homeowners, about $122,000 for middle-income homeowners, and about $150,000 for upper-income homeowners.    That’s it for our latest economic and housing market updates. Please check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to click on the Join for Free button at our website for information about real estate investing, and don’t forget to subscribe to this podcast, if you haven’t already!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-economy-is-headed-toward-recession-leading-index-keeps-signaling-afe5f314?mod=economy-politics   2​​ - https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/fannies-latest-forecast-maintains-modest-recession-still-in-play/   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-to-245-000-and-signal-rising-layoffs-5409f9d7?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-decline-in-march-as-apartment-construction-cools-717828a7?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-confidence-rises-for-fourth-consecutive-month-amid-low-number-of-resale-listings-d377885e?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-prices-fall-nearly-1-in-march-biggest-drop-in-a-decade-910e9be5?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-price-regional-breakdown-mortgage-housing/   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/construction-development/construction-material-costs-lower-than-a-year-ago-still-39-higher-than-pre-pandemic-118528   10 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/study-homeowner-wealth-is-40-times-higher-than-renters

Fannie and Freddie have a growing blacklist for certain properties that they won’t lend to, but it’s not public and it could surprise you when you’re trying to close on a deal. The Los Angeles Daily News first reported on this, saying the government-sponsored enterprises are placing condos, associations, and co-ops on the list for a variety of reasons, including deferred maintenance. (1)   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   The president of Philadelphia-based condo and co-op lending service provider CondoTek told the Daily News that the blacklist has now grown to more than 1,400 properties. Orest Tomaselli says just 16 months ago, there were only 900 properties on the list.   New Tighter Standards After Condo Collapse   Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tightened their standards after the collapse of Champlain Towers South in Surfside, Florida. The catastrophic failure of the 12-story condo building resulted in the deaths of 98 people and $1B in property losses.    HOAs started seeing a new questionnaire months later at the beginning of last year. According to the Daily News, Fannie and Freddie are using data from this questionnaire to determine whether a property has deferred maintenance, structural issues, or a lack of funds or insurance to cover needed upgrades or repairs.   Concerns That Questionnaire Creates Liability   The questionnaire has been controversial. Other than questions regarding maintenance and upkeep, they also include questions that could presume future liability for any deficiencies – questions like: “Is the HOA or Cooperative Corporation aware of any deficiencies related to the safety, soundness, structural integrity, or habitability of the project’s buildings?”   The Orange County Register reported on a survey by the Community Associations Institute that shows 89% of the participants felt they might be held liable in the future because of questions they didn’t know how to answer. Almost as many also feared liability exposure because they refused to answer those questions. (2)   News reports say that some condo associations and property management companies feel the questionnaires are “draconian” and have chosen instead to boycott Fannie/Freddie loans.   Questionnaire Alternative Not Well Received   The mortgage giants are offering an alternative although that hasn’t gotten a great reception either. Instead of the questionnaire, the underwriter can provide reviews of board minutes from HOA meetings, engineering inspections, and local government inspections. Lenders weren’t thrilled with that option because it could expose the lender to future liability issues.    Mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson says in the Orange County Register article, that 50% of the loans that his shop runs through Fannie and Freddie require a limited review and a shorter list of HOA questions. A Freddie Mac spokesperson says that: “Freddie Mac’s requirements are designed to help ensure residential buildings with aging infrastructure are safe for their residents and the condos and co-ops needing critical repairs have a plan to do so.”   Safety is of utmost importance, but with affordable housing in short supply, the questionnaire and the blacklist add two more obstacles for homebuyers looking for a lower price tag.   Secret Blacklist for Lenders & Servicers   As for the blacklist, it’s reportedly available to lenders and servicers, but not the property owners or the public in general which includes potential buyers. That means buyers counting on a loan from Fannie or Freddie might not find out until the last minute.   Tomaselli says: “It’s a crapshoot. The only way for you to find out if a project is on that list is if you apply for a mortgage and the lender runs that project to see if it’s unavailable. And only then, typically, is the buyer informed.” Buyers must then turn to riskier, more expensive mortgages to complete their transaction.    You’ll find links to articles about the blacklist and the HOA questionnaire at newsforinvestors.com. As always, I ask that you join RealWealth for free to learn more about real estate, and subscribe to this podcast! We’d also appreciate a review on whatever podcast platform you are using.   Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/secret-blacklist-of-condos-co-ops-means-some-buyers-ineligible-for-fannie-freddie-financing-118544   2 - https://www.ocregister.com/2022/02/24/condo-questionnaire-causing-some-boards-to-boycott-fannie-freddie-financing/

Is climate change creating a real estate bubble we shouldn’t ignore? And who’s going to get hurt if that bubble bursts? Yale’s Climate Connections newsletter just reported on a study that claims there’s a massive bubble forming because property values don’t include climate risks like flooding and wildfires. The 2023 Nature Climate Change study also suggests six ways to reduce this risk and potentially keep this bubble from bursting. (1)   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Although climate change skeptics may feel we are experiencing normal weather patterns, many people are concerned that severe weather events are increasing in number and intensity. We’ve been seeing increased storm-related flooding in some areas and more drought-related wildfires in others. Some inland areas are also dealing with water scarcity and extreme heat while coastal areas are faced with the threat of rising sea levels.   The “Brittleness Bubble”   The Yale newsletter cited climate futurist Alex Steffen for his definition of the so-called “Brittleness Bubble.” Steffen says: “As awareness of risk grows, the financial value of risky places drops. Where meeting that risk is more expensive than decision-makers think a place is worth, it simply won’t be defended. It will be abandoned.” He says: “That will then create more problems. Bonds for big projects, loans and mortgages, business investment, insurance, talented workers – all will grow more scarce. Then, values will crash.”   Overvaluation of Homes   The Nature Climate Change study pegged the overvaluation of U.S. homes in flood zones at around $200 billion, but a study done last year by consulting firm Milliman had a much higher number. In the Milliman study, researchers calculated the overvaluation at more like $500 billion.   These figures apply to flood risk, and don’t account for the impact of other weather-related risks like wildfires. California is suffering the impact of highly destructive wildfires that have been increasing in number and intensity. And that’s pushing up insurance rates, making it unaffordable for many people to rebuild or buy homes in high-risk areas. The Southwest has also been dealing with a long-time drought although recent winter rains have helped to replenish reservoirs. But water scarcity and extreme heat are a growing problem in many areas.   Reducing the Risk   The report goes on to list six ways to help prevent this bubble from bursting, which I will briefly share with you.   1 - The first is to require sellers to fully disclose flood risks. The study says that, in general, properties that are highly overvalued are in coastal counties which often don’t require flood-risk disclosures. Some property listing websites will show you this info however, such as Redfin and Realtor.com. Floodfactor.com also provides property-specific risk ratings.   2 - The second suggestion is to raise awareness about climate change which might lead to policy changes about development in risky areas. This will likely happen as more people suffer the impact and media attention grows.    3 - Third on the list of suggestions is to charge market-based insurance rates instead of subsidized rates provided by the National Flood Insurance Program. The NFIP has issued new risk ratings called Risk Rating 2.0. That has brought insurance costs closer to what they need to be, but it’s a slow-going process because there are yearly rate-hike caps.   4 - The fourth suggestion is to reduce federal subsidies for properties in risky areas.  These subsidies come in the form of supplemental disaster relief with no requirements for long-term flood-risk strategies. The study authors say it’s a complex issue that will take a lot of effort to tackle because there isn’t much political support or funding to get this done.   5 - Fifth on the list of actions to address the so-called climate change housing bubble is a revamping of FEMA and the creation of a National Disaster Safety Board. The report says that FEMA is “underfunded, understaffed, and has minimal authority to do what it needs to do.” A National Disaster Safety Board could help implement policy changes.   6 - Last but not least, the report suggests that we should work toward a retreat policy that would help people move from areas that have suffered multiple climate-related disasters. The strategy would be to provide affordable housing for these people which may sound like a “big ask” at a time when the nation is suffering from a huge lack of affordable housing.   When Will the Bubble Burst?   So when will all this become critical?   The Yale article cites a NOAA prediction, that the average sea level rise by 2050 will be 10 to 14 inches for the East Coast, 14 to 18 inches for the Gulf Coast, and four to eight inches for the West Coast. It says a “rapid rise” will happen after that and claims that we’ll see a rise of four to seven feet by 2100 as compared to the year 2000.   The study can’t predict when we might see a sudden disruption because so much depends on politics, the economy, and basic human behavior. It says we might see a period of increased risk in the mid-2030s because of a “wobble in the moon’s orbit.” It’s something that happens every 18.6 years and usually causes unusually high tides along the Southern and Western coastlines.   If you own property in a high risk area, this topic is something that may command more of your attention. And if you’re looking to buy a new property, be sure to check on the climate risks and factor that into your decision. As I mentioned, Redfin and Realtor.com both provide environmental risk factors on their property listing pages. You can also find more detailed information at floodfactor.com.   If you want to read more about this study, you’ll find a link to the Yale article at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth for free if you’d like more information on how to navigate the housing market right now and find rental property that makes sense for your portfolio. And please remember to subscribe to the podcast and leave us a review!   Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy   Links:   1 - https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/04/bubble-trouble-climate-change-is-creating-a-huge-and-growing-u-s-real-estate-bubble/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 15th, 2023… we have two inflation reports, the minutes of the last Fed meeting, and the results of a survey on an acceptable mortgage rate.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. The government released two reports on inflation that show prices are rising more slowly, but that inflation is still too high. The Consumer Price Index or CPI shows a small .1% increase in March, mostly due to lower food and gas prices. Energy prices were down 3.5% while groceries fell .3% including an 11% tumble for egg prices. Grocery prices are still 8.4% higher year-over-year, but those declines helped slow the yearly rate from 6% to 5%, which is the lowest we’ve seen since May of 2021. (1)   The news isn’t quite as good for the core rate, which strips out food and gas. That was up .4% and “raised” the annual rate from 5.5% to 5.6%. The increase was partly caused by a 2.7% increase in shelter prices, although rents and home price growth are slowing.    The Producer Price Index or PPI for March was also released, and shows a big drop in wholesale prices. That typically means we’ll see retail prices coming down in the coming months. The data shows a .5% monthly decline which brings the yearly rate down from 4.9% to 2.7%. That’s the lowest it’s been since January of 2021. The core rate shows a slight increase of .1%. That also reduced the annual rate from 4.5% to 3.6%. (2)   Meantime, the Federal Reserve released minutes from the meeting in February which resulted in a quarter-point rate hike. The notes show that Fed officials are very concerned about rate hike stress on the banking system, and are now admitting that we’ll likely see at least a “mild” recession later this year. They raised the Federal Funds rate nine times in a row to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the last meeting. They believe that inflation is still much too high and that further rate hikes may be needed, but they will be looking closely at the incoming economic data ahead of their meeting in May. (3)   U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke out at the end of the week, saying that banks are being more cautious, and that if they tighten their lending standards further, there may be no need for further rate hikes. She said that would serve as a “substitute for further interest rate hikes that the Fed needs to make.” (4)   Consumers are spending less, which is another sign that the economy is softening. Retail sales have declined four out of the last five months, and were down 1% in March. As reported by MarketWatch: “Retail sales haven’t fallen off a cliff, but they also aren’t rising rapidly like they did in 2021 and early 2022.” (5)   Jobless applications are slowly rising. There were 239,000 initial claims for the previous week, which is an increase of 11,000. That’s not much of a blow to the job market, but it does show that layoffs are slowly rising. Most of the unemployment applications were filed in California where big tech companies are handing out pink slips. Continuing claims are still very low at 1.81 million. (6)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates held steady for the most part. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was down just one basis point to 6.27%. The 15-year was also down one point to 5.54%. (7)   In other news making headlines...   Mortgage Rate “Tipping Point”   The National Association of Realtors is predicting they will fall below 6% by the end of the year. NAR economist Nadia Evangelou says: “If rates drop to 6%, 3.1 million more households will be able to afford to buy the median-priced home compared to the beginning of the year.”   A survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows the “sweet spot” for most homebuyers is lower than 6%. 71% of the participants taking that survey said they won’t accept anything higher than 5.5%. (8)   Sharp Drop in Single-Family Permits   There’s been a steep drop in the number of building permits pulled for single-family homes. The National Association of Home Buliders says the they are down more than 34% year-over-year with the sharpest decrease in the West followed by the South and the Midwest. They are down about 44%, 33%, and 31% respectively. The Northeast had the smallest drop of 23%. (9)   Multifamily permits are up slightly for the nation with a year-over-year rate of just over 8%. There’s been a steep drop in the Northeast for apartments while they have surged to almost 32% in the South.   Texas had the highest number of single-family permits, but those have dropped more than 40% in the last 12 months. Florida and North Carolina have also experienced big declines of just over 31% and 22% respectively.   That’s it for today. You’ll find more on all these topics by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also learn more about how demand is growing for single-family rentals at our website and where it makes sense to buy them. Hit the “Join for Free” button to become a member with access to all parts of our website. And  please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-prices-rise-more-slowly-cpi-shows-but-inflation-still-stubbornly-high-74611cd9   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-posts-biggest-drop-in-3-years-ppi-shows-3fc04750?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-at-march-meeting-were-keenly-worried-about-impact-of-bank-stress-on-economy-26f2d36d?mod=mw_latestnews   4 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/15/yellen-says-us-banks-may-tighten-lending-and-negate-need-for-more-fed-rate-hikes.html   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-tumble-in-march-in-a-sign-of-softening-u-s-economy-b9d35c44?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-to-239-000-and-point-to-rising-layoffs-5f07ceb5?mod=economy-politics   ​​7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-move-closer-to-sweet-spot-for-buyers   9 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/04/steep-year-over-year-decline-for-single-family-permits-in-february-2023/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 8th, 2023... reports show a slowly weakening job market, what could be a great year for single-family rentals, and a list of the top metros for home value growth and stability.    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. Although the job market remains strong, the latest reports show it is softening. For the week of March 25th, jobless claims hit 228,000. It’s the ninth week in a row that they’ve topped 200,000. They had bottomed out last fall when they dropped to a 53-year low of 182,000. They continued around the 200,000 level for several months and have been slowly rising since February. Government revisions also show that claims during the first part of the year were higher than previously reported. MarketWatch economists say that’s probably due to corporate layoffs that are just now showing up in the jobless data. (1)   Job openings are also declining. They fell to a 21-month low in February, which is another sign that the job market is softening. Listings dropped from 10.6 million in January to 9.9 million in February. Openings are now down to about 1.7 openings for each unemployed worker. They were at 1.9 openings or each unemployed worker previously. Bill Adams of Comerica told MarketWatch: “The labor market is still very hot but the big drop in job openings is a sign the labor market is cooling in general.” (2)   A third report on job growth shows that U.S. companies added 236,000 new jobs in March. That’s a sign of strength and resiliency, and probably not what the Fed would like to hear. Those new jobs helped lower the unemployment rate from 3.6% to 3.5%. Wage growth was slower however. It’s come down from 4.6% in February to 4.2% in March. (3)   A report on construction spending shows it was down slightly in February. The Commerce Department says it fell .1% to $1.844 trillion. Single-family construction spending was down 1.8% while multi-family spending was up 1.4%. Year-over-year, multifamily is up 22.2%. Single-family is up 21.4%. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates dipped slightly this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 4 basis points to 6.28%. The 15-year was down 8 points to 5.64%. (5)   In other news making headlines…   Single-Family Rental Market Remains Strong   Some parts of the housing market may be in for a rough ride this year, but the single-family rental market isn’t one of them. A new report from Attom projected single-family rental yields for 212 counties with a population of at least 100,000. Rental yields are calculated by dividing the annualized gross rent by the purchase price. According to Attom, rentals in those 212 counties will see a 7.5% yield this year. That’s up from 6.7% last year. (6)   Attom says that SFR rents are growing in over 90 of the counties analyzed, so those counties will be the most desirable. Three of the top five counties for the biggest upside in rent yields are in Florida including counties for Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach. California’s Orange and Santa Clara counties are the other two. There’s a lot of data in this report so it’s worth digging deeper if you’re deciding where to buy a rental property this year. You’ll find a link to the report in the show notes.   Texas Shows Strength for Overall Housing Market   Another report on the U.S. housing market lists the top 20 cities for growth and stability, and 12 of them are in Texas. The Smart Asset study compared home value data for 400 metros between 1998 and 2022. It then calculated the growth rate from that data. (7)   The Austin, Texas, area was In the number one spot for growth and stability followed by Midland, Texas, in the Western part of the state. Boulder and Fort Collins, Colorado, took the third and fourth spots. The Kennewick-Richland part of Washington State was fifth. Rapid City South Dakota took the sixth position. Then it’s back to Texas with the Odessa area in West Texas as seventh and the Dallas area as eighth. San Antonio was in the ninth spot, and Houston right after that. Texas also dominated the next ten top cities as well with six more metros showing the strongest growth and stability.   The report also shows the worst cities for growth and stability with Flint Michigan topping that list. I won’t list those cities, but you’ll find a link to the report in the show notes.   Will Commercial Real Estate Go Belly Up?   While there has been a lot of concern that commercial real estate is going to implode because of maturing debt and the inability to refinance at high interest rate, CNBC published a story with the title: “The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen.” This story argues that only a quarter of office-building loans will need to be refinanced in the next year.  A quarter of office-buildings? That sounds like a LOT to me.  CNBC also reports that industrial, retail, and hotels are on solid ground. (8) Kevin Fagan of Moody’s Analytics says: “There likely will be issues but it’s more of a typical down cycle.” Whether it's a typical down cycle or a rare one, losing money is never good for investors and is usually a result of aggressive underwriting in a bull market. According to The RealDeal, distress has started to rear its ugly head in the Houston market. Arbor Realty Trust just foreclosed last week on four low-income multifamily properties in Houston, valued at $229 million. The portfolio includes Heights at Post Oak, Redford Apartments, Reserve at Westwood and Timber Ridge Apartments, all of which were purchased between August 2021 and April 2022. (10) The RealDeal says Arbor’s foreclosure is "indicative of the current state of the market, where higher interest rates, regional banking turmoil, and slowing rent growth continue to negatively impact multifamily operators. Investors decreased their purchase of apartment buildings by about $40 billion in the first quarter of 2023, representing a 74% decline in sales from the first quarter of last year, according to CoStar Group.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. As always, I ask that you sign up as a RealWealth member. It’s free and will give you complete access to our market data and resources. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-top-200-000-after-changes-to-formula-for-seasonal-adjustments-877bfe37?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-openings-in-the-u-s-fall-to-21-month-low-of-9-9-million-cd1fc5ee?mod=home-page   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-shows-236-000-increase-in-employment-in-march-9656b5fc   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-falls-in-february-90188a02?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/attom-2023-single-family-rental-market-report/   7 - https://smartasset.com/data-studies/best-housing-markets-for-growth-and-stability-2023   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/09/the-coming-commercial-real-estate-crash-that-may-never-happen.html 10 - https://therealdeal.com/texas/houston/2023/04/10/arbor-realty-forecloses-on-229-million-multifamily-portfolio-in-houston/?fbclid=IwAR3yZwTh9jylfQsZQp4HjpOLNPqSE_BiXjlQSGWkE6T42lyeTN3WawP1ZMc

Commercial real estate is feeling the impact of high interest rates, slower rent growth, and the banking turmoil, but is that asset class really set to implode? Many of the headlines you see today would lead you to believe that that’s going to happen but some real estate insiders say: “Not so fast. We could be in for a buying opportunity.”   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   First, let’s take a look at what’s happening with apartment sales. Commercial real estate data company CoStar just released a preliminary report on first quarter sales that shows a 74% year-over-year drop. That’s the biggest slowdown since 2012 except for the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic shut down the economy. From the start of the year to March 17th, sales were around $10.6 trillion. If the quarter finished with another $2.8 billion in sales, the total would be equal to the second quarter of 2020. (1)   Apartment Sale Slowdowns   In 2020, apartment sales fell because of the pandemic. Now, sales are slowing down because the Fed has been pushing up interest rates to fight inflation and investors can’t make the numbers work. Alex Horn of CoStar News says: “The value of multifamily assets across the United States has started to decline” over the last six months. And he expects valuations to fall further.    As dour as that sounds, CoStar reports that multifamily sales are doing better than other kinds of commercial real estate, such as office and industrial. CoStar’s Jay Lybik says that multifamily is “still the preferred sector to invest in.” But this kind of data is looking at a “national” snapshot, which doesn’t say much about the submarkets, and places where things aren’t quite so bad.   The Basic Tenets of Real Estate    Eric Brody of ANAX Ventures is one of those optimists. ANAX is a real estate developer and lender that provides funding to distressed real estate projects. Brody spoke with Benzinga about the current situation and said: “What are the basic tenets of real estate? Location, location, location and hyper-local markets. Now you have the mainstream media making projections based on a macro scale.” He says that the media should be asking about what asset class in which market and how they structured the deal. (2)   He also objects to stories about a big slowdown in construction that’s impacting values. According to Brody, you don’t count a half built building as worth only half of it’s value. He says the values are still there and there’s “a lot of stuff under construction right now.”   Maturing Debt Creates Investor Opportunities   In December, he forecast big buying opportunities in commercial real estate because of all the debt that’s maturing. He told GlobeSt.com that a report by Newmark shows “over $1 trillion in loans are coming due in the next two years, and due to rising interest rates, it is expected that repayment conditions will become more challenging, with bridge financing, office, and retail loans being the most at risk.” He said: “In addition to the rising rates because of increased construction costs, rent growth, and political headwinds, real estate will need an infusion of capital to either refinance assets at a lower rate, pay down existing debt, or complete current projects.” (3)   But what does that mean for investors with capital? Brody told Benzinga that this creates an opportunistic environment for investors with cash on hand. He says: “It’s an incredible moment in time if you have the capital and the expertise.”   That’s it for a more positive view of the commercial real estate market. You’ll find links to the stories I mentioned at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth for free while you are there, if you haven’t already done so. As a member, you have full access to our website, with data on individual rental markets, sample properties, and experienced investment counselors who can answer questions for qualified investors.   If you haven’t subscribed to the podcast, please do so! And leave us a review!   Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy   Links:   1 - https://www.costar.com/article/2111442536/us-apartment-sales-on-pace-for-the-slowest-quarter-in-more-than-a-decade   2 - https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/23/04/31659957/is-commercial-real-estate-dead-dying-or-just-the-subject-of-media-clickbait   3 - https://www.globest.com/2022/12/19/will-investment-sales-recover-in-2023/

Demand for badly needed housing has triggered another ban on single-family zoning. Lawmakers in Arlington County, Virginia, approved a controversial plan to eliminate single-family exclusivity, and allow as many as six homes on one property. The decision came after a contentious three-year debate, and is part of a growing trend to dismantle the long-standing concept for single-family communities.    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   The policy was unanimously approved by a five-member county board after a battle that included a so-called “Missing Middle Housing Study.” The missing middle is a phrase that refers to housing that falls between apartments and single-family homes. It covers several kinds of housing including townhomes, duplexes, and triplexes with more space than apartments. It could also include backyard cottages or in-law units which are more officially known as accessory dwelling units or ADUs.   Divisive Debate Over Single-Family Zoning Ban   As reported by the Washington Post, some Arlington County residents supported the idea, saying a ban on exclusive single-family neighborhoods would increase affordable housing options and diversify their communities. Other residents argued that it would lead to overcrowding, lower property values, and the destruction of their lifestyle and neighborhoods. (1)   Arlington County is a desirable part of the greater Washington, D.C. metro with a growing population and a growing demand for more housing. The county’s board chair, Christian Dorsey, said the ban will help the county address population growth, and move past the “discriminatory noise” within zoning rules.   He says: “Growth and change are not good or bad, they just are.” And, he says: “It’s our responsibility to make sure we accommodate that – to make sure that it works well for as many people as it possibly can.”   New Rules Among the Most Permissive in the Country   The new rules are some of the most permissive in the country. Contractors will be allowed to put up to five or six homes on lots that range in size from 6 to 7,000 square feet. Smaller lots will have a limit of 4 units. Height, lot coverage, floor area, and setbacks will remain the same.    According to Wikipedia, single-family zoning has been around since 1916, and began in the Elmwood neighborhood of Berkeley, California. The story goes that a real estate developer in the Elmwood district pushed for single-family zoning rules to prevent a dance company owned by a Black resident from moving into homes that he was trying to sell. He apparently pushed for single-family zoning with the help of other developers who were also trying to keep certain groups of people out of the neighborhood.   Growing Opposition to Single-Family Zoning   More than one hundred years later, the concept is now wavering under the weight of the housing crisis, and the idea of banning this kind of exclusive zoning is gaining momentum across the country. According to BisNow, at least three states and eight municipalities have passed bans on single-family-only zoning.   The city of Minneapolis was the first to implement a ban in 2018. The state of Oregon followed in 2019. Several cities in California banned that kind of zoning, but state lawmakers approved a bill in 2019 called Senate Bill 9. That legislation makes it legal to have two units on a single-family property, and in some cases, four units.   The state of Maine adopted a ban last year. The Washington State House of Representatives just recently passed a bill that would ban single-family zoning statewide, but it still needs approval from the state senate and the governor. (2)   The policy in Arlington, Virginia, goes into effect on July 1st and will be phased in over five years. During those first five years, only 58 permits a year will be approved. The cap will be lifted in 2028.   This kind of ban opens up opportunities for homeowners to be coincidental landlords if they build additional housing on their properties, and rent them out. You’ll find links to the Washington Post story in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com.   Please remember to join RealWealth by clicking on the “join for free” button. As a member, you’ll have greater access to investing opportunities in desirable rental markets across the country. That includes our investor portal, our market data, and our experienced investment counselors. You can also find out more about our spring real estate tours in metros that are popular among single-family rental investors, and our mastermind events to help get you on the path to long-term wealth.   If you haven’t subscribed to the podcast, please do so! And leave us a review!   Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy Show Notes link:  https://www.newsforinvestors.com   Join link: https://join.realwealth.com/?utm_content=Real%20Estate%20News%20Podcast&utm_campaign=Join%20for%20Free&utm_term=Description%20Text%20Link   Subscribe link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-estate-news-real-estate-investing-podcast/id1079952715   Links:   1 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/22/arlington-missing-middle-vote-zoning/   2 -  https://www.housingwire.com/articles/wa-house-passes-bill-that-would-ban-single-family-zoning/  

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 1st, 2023… new PCE numbers show inflation is weakening, where investors are reaping the biggest returns for single-family rentals, and how much apartment renters are saving if they don’t buy.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and a favorable report on inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report on the February Personal Consumption Index, or PCE, and it shows a mild .3% increase. That’s down from a .6% increase in January, and suggests that the Fed may be getting the upper hand on high prices. With this report, the yearly rate dropped from 5.3% to 5%, which is the lowest it’s been in more than a year and a half. (1)   Senior Federal Reserve officials are suggesting that another quarter point rate hike is still needed, before they call for a pause. That would be decided at the Fed’s next meeting in May as Fed officials also weigh the risk of further interest rate hikes on the banking system.   The government revised their Q4 GDP for a third time. It was initially 2.9%. Last month, it was lowered to 2.7%. The government is now saying it was 2.6%. As MarketWatch reported, the GDP was reduced because data shows weaker consumer spending, and a decline in corporate profits. (2)   The weekly jobless report shows 198,000 people applied for benefits. That’s a three-week high, but it’s still a very low number and indicates that the labor market remains strong in the face of high-interest rates and a potential recession. (3)   Reports on housing include the latest Case-Shiller home price report. The national index fell .2% in January, while the 20-city index was down .4%. Year-over-year home prices are still 2.5% higher, but that’s down from 4.6% last month. (4)   Home buyers seem to be warming up to the idea of higher mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors reports that pending sales were up for a third month in a row. They rose .8% in February. That’s after a huge 8.1% surge in January. If you compare the numbers to one year ago, they are down 21.1%. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates didn’t move much in the last week, but they remain at a lower level than recent highs. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down one point to 6.32%, which is essentially the same as the previous week. The 15-year dropped 12 points to 5.56%. (6)   In other news making headlines…   More Sellers Sitting on the Sidelines   While it seems the spring buying season is producing a surge in buyers, and mortgage rates have come down slightly, sellers are still in a wait-and-see mode. Realtor.com says that new listings fell again in March, and are down 20% compared to a year ago. The active inventory is about 60% higher year-over-year, but that’s because homes are taking longer to sell.   Realtor.com says that homes are now sitting on the market for an average of 54 days. That’s up from an average of 36 days last spring. Chief economist, Danielle Hale, says shoppers are very sensitive to mortgage rates and they “only jump back in the market when rates dip.” She says rates will play a big role in whether the housing market “bumps along or picks up speed this year.”   Best Counties for Single-Family Rentals   If you’re trying to decide where you might get the best returns for a single-family rental, real estate data firm ATTOM just issued its Q1 2023 Single-Family Rental Market report. ATTOM analyzed 212 U.S. counties with a population of at least 100,000.    The report shows the overall single-family rental yield increasing from last year in 91% of those counties. It was 6.7% last year, and rises to 7.5% this year. Rents are rising faster than home prices in many counties. CEO, Rob Barber says: “Rents for single-family homes are growing while prices have flattened out, which has helped boost yields for landlords for the first time in at least several years.”   Three of the top five counties for rental returns are in Florida, including River County, Florida, in the Sebastian-Vero Beach area; Collier County, Florida, in the Naples area; and Charlotte County, Florida, in the Punta Gorda area. A few other counties with high rental yields include Chicago’s Cook County, Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, and West Palm Beach’s Palm Beach County.    Looking at the top 50 counties for rental returns: 29 are in the South, 13 are in the Midwest, eight are in the Northeast, and none are in the West.   Big Savings for Apartment Renters   The savings gap is growing for people who rent an apartment instead of buying a home. The National Multifamily Housing Council says it’s now more than $1,000 dollars more expensive per month to buy a home than it is to rent an apartment – $1,176 to be exact. That’s the widest gap in 15 years. (9)   Apartment rent growth has been slowing. It was only up 2.6% in March and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. Vacancies are also returning to normal levels. They are currently at 6.6%. That’s up from 6.4% in February. (10)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You’ll also find market data at our website, along with investing education and opportunities. You need to become a member to access some of our information, but it’s free to join and will only take a few minutes.    We also ask that our listeners subscribe to the podcast, if you haven’t done so already. And if you have a minute, please leave us a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-softens-in-february-pce-finds-785c116e?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-gdp-in-fourth-quarter-trimmed-again-to-2-6-on-weaker-consumer-spending-663e9a5b?mod=search_headline   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-to-three-week-high-of-198-000-but-layoffs-still-extremely-low-3efde979?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-price-rises-slow-again-in-january-with-western-markets-leading-declines-2ea97cfb?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-pending-home-sales-rise-for-the-third-month-in-a-row-in-february-18c2a392?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/more-home-sellers-are-sitting-out-of-the-spring-housing-market.html   8 - https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/attom-2023-single-family-rental-market-report/   9 - https://www.globest.com/2023/03/31/renting-an-apartment-is-now-1175-cheaper-per-month-than-owning-a-home/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/rent-growth-drops-to-pre-covid-levels.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 25th, 2023... the Fed’s latest rate hike, the impact of high rates on banks, and the top states for tenant migrations.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. The Federal Reserve hiked the short-term rate once again by a quarter point. The benchmark rate is now 4.75% to 5%. There had been speculation that we’d see a half point rate hike because inflation hasn’t been coming down fast enough, but the failure of Silicon Valley Bank forced the central bank to be more cautious. (1)   Fed Chief Jerome Powell said he was surprised at how quickly Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and even admitted that committee members considered a pause in rate hikes. Federal Reserve data shows that almost $100 billion were pulled from accounts during the week that ended March 15th. Most of that money came from small banks, while larger banks saw more of an inflow.   Although depositors have been yanking money from smaller banks, Powell says the deposit drain from small banks has slowed down and the U.S. banking system is “sound and resilient.” He says the Fed set up a powerful backstop for banks, allowing them to tap into an emergency loan program. (2)   It’s important to remember that FDIC-insured banks will guarantee deposits up to $250,000 and $500,000 for couples. If you have more than those amounts, you can protect yourself by keeping the maximum-insured amounts at different banks.   Moving on to the job market… The weekly unemployment report shows another drop in claims for new benefits. Those applications declined to a three-week low of 191,000. That indicates that companies are not laying off employees in any great numbers, and that higher interest rates have “not” hit the job market, yet. (3)   New home sales are up for a third month in a row, thanks to a dip in mortgage rates. They rose 1.1% to an annual rate of 640,000 in February. (4) And for the first time in 13 months, existing home sales were higher. According to the National Association of Realtors, they surged 14.5% last month to an annual rate of 4.58 million. NAR says the sale of single-family homes is the highest ever since the association began tracking those sales in 1999. As reported by MarketWatch, there’s clearly a pent-up demand for homes as the spring home-buying season gets underway. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates slid closer to the 6% level this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 18 basis points to 6.42%. The 15-year dropped 22 points to 5.68%. (6)   In other news making headlines...   Small Bank Impact on Real Estate   Pressure on small banks could make it harder to get a real estate loan. According to Goldman Sachs, there are about 4,800 small and mid-sized banks in the U.S. and they are often the go-to lenders for real estate loans, including a high percentage of construction loans. These smaller banks are responsible for 67% of commercial real estate loans and 37% of all residential real estate loans. (7)   As reported by Axios, small banks had already started tightening their lending standards by the end of last year, but now economists are expecting more tightening. CoStar says about 40% of loan officers had tightened their lending standards for commercial real estate loans by Q4 of last year. Only about 5% said they were doing that in Q4 of 2021.   Commercial real estate could face the biggest impact as property owners deal with low-interest loans that are maturing, and a whole lot of half-empty office space. Those loans will need to be renegotiated at higher rates, making it tough on property owners and their lenders loans become unaffordable.   Study: 190 Small Banks Could Collapse   One study projects the failure of 190 smaller banks if depositors decide to withdraw even half their uninsured amounts. The study was done by social Science Research Network and published in USA Today. (8)   The report did not list the at-risk banks but described them as smaller banks with a total of $300 million in FDIC-insured deposits. They are at risk because the value of long-term investments, like government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, has gone down. Economists say if those values decline further, more of those smaller banks could be at risk. Spring Tenant Migration   It isn’t just the beginning of the spring home-buying season. Real estate insiders are expecting a huge number of renter migrations as well, and many of those renters are looking for homes in new cities. A study by Apartment List shows that 40% of tenants searched in a new metro last year, while 27% searched in a new state… and that many are considering long distance moves. (9)   Apartment List says those long-distance moves tend to be more common among high-income renters, and that many of them are coming from California and New York. Those two states each lost about a half a million residents from 2020 to 2022. Top destinations for ex-Californians are Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Washington, and Florida, while New Yorkers are heading for Florida, California, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com, and make sure you hit the “Join for Free” button for complete access to our market data and resources for real estate investing opportunities.   It’s also important to subscribe to our podcast, and we’d love a review if you haven’t left one yet!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-interest-rates-again-pencils-in-only-one-more-increase-ac42c84e?mod=the-fed   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/24/100-billion-pulled-from-banks-but-system-called-sound-and-resilient.html   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-dip-to-3-week-low-of-191-000-labor-market-still-very-strong-fd75abd1?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-rise-for-the-fifth-consecutive-month-a8de7116?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-sales-rise-for-the-first-time-in-13-months-surging-14-5-in-february-12603067   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/small-bank-struggles-could-hit-the-real-estate-market-hard   8 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/186-smaller-banks-risk-of-collapse-mark-to-market-assets-118152   9 -  https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-renter-migration-report-2023?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandmkt&utm_content=apartment-list-renter-migration-report-2023&sr_share=linkedin

The Fed followed through on another rate hike despite the banking turmoil. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee raised the Federal Funds rate another quarter point on March 22nd. That brings the short term rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Fed Chief Jerome Powell said the collapse of two banks, and the near-collapse of a third, did force Fed officials to consider a pause in rate hikes. But he says they were persuaded to hike rates again because of stubbornly high inflation and a strong job market with strong wage growth. But Powell offered assurances that the central bank is prepared to protect the banking system. He also still believes there’s a path to a soft landing. (1)   Powell says he expects the need for one more rate hike this year, while seven of the 18 Fed officials are forecasting two hikes. If the short-term rate is raised another quarter point, the end range would be 5% to 5.25%.    Fed Sees Higher End-of-the-Year PCE Percentage   The Fed previously thought Personal Consumption Expenditure index, or PCE, would end the year at 3.1%. It’s now projecting a higher 3.3%, which is moving in the wrong direction from the central bank’s 2% target.    In the meantime, the Fed also needs to make sure the financial system remains stable. There’s fear that nervous depositors could pull more money out of regional banks, which are already under stress. Federal regulators took control of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and are making sure depositors get all their money back despite the FDIC limit of $250,000. The Fed also worked with the FDIC, and the U.S. Treasury in the creation of a fund for banks that need to borrow money to cover deposits. As reported by Bisnow, banks withdrew a total of $300 billion during the first week.   Government Prepared to Prop Up Small Banks   Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also says the government is prepared to protect small banks from failures, but much of this stability depends on the confidence of depositors. Archie brown of Cincinnati-based First Financial Bank told Bisnow: “The main thing is to make sure that the Fed is instilling confidence in the deposit base. As long as we do that, I think everything else will manage itself.”   The San Francisco-based First Republic had teetered toward failure with a $70 billion run on deposits, which is about half of its total. The bank received an infusion of cash from eleven large banks and the federal government to keep it from toppling. But the experts are still worried about smaller regional banks which is where a lot of commercial real estate investors get their loans. According to an article in Axios, small and mid-sized banks hold 67% of commercial real estate loans, and 37% of residential real estate loans. (3)   Small Banks Could Reduce Real Estate Exposure   Brad Kraus of the CRE financial consulting first Ascension said in an email to Bisnow: “If banks do end up struggling, the first thing we see here on the front lines is a reduction in their real estate exposure.” He said: “If things get worse, they simply start quoting rates which guarantee profitability, thus effectively pricing themselves out of the market.” (4)   Higher rates will push commercial real estate values lower. Keiran says: “Those looking to sell anytime soon, especially those owners that are facing loan maturities, will have to offer their deals at higher cap rates to attract buyers.” According to the Wall Street Journal, as much as $270 billion in commercial mortgages will mature this year.    As these loans mature Keiran expects to see a “major value adjustment” for commercial properties especially if we sink into a recession. Banks are also likely to cut back on lending as a way to preserve capital, especially if they expect the Fed to keep hiking rates.   That’s it for now. You’ll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com Please remember to join RealWealth. It’s free to join and gives you an all-area pass to our website. That includes our investor portal, our market data, and our experienced investment counselors. You can also find out more about our mastermind events, and our real estate tours in markets that are popular among single-family rental investors.   Please remember to subscribe to the podcast, and leave us a review!   Thanks for listening, Kathy Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/live-updates-fed-rate-march.html   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-interest-rates-again-pencils-in-only-one-more-increase-ac42c84e?mod=home-page   3 - https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/small-bank-struggles-could-hit-the-real-estate-market-har https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/business/svb-signature-commercial-real-estate.html   4 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/banking-crisis-will-have-profound-effect-on-regional-bank-cre-lending-118190

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 18th, 2023… the latest reports on inflation, why homebuilders blame the media for skittish homebuyers, and what international buyers think about the U.S. real estate market.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with the latest economic news from this past week, and what a week it’s been. The banking crisis continues to underscore the impact that interest rate hikes can have on the economy. Economists are now predicting that the Fed may only raise rates a quarter point when it meets in the coming week, instead of the previously anticipated half point rate hike. (1)   The latest inflation reports are also encouraging. The Consumer Price Index was up .4% in February. That’s after a .5% increase in January. The lower rate of inflation brings the annual rate down to 6% from 6.4%, which is still high, but receding. The CPI’s core rate was a bit higher. It was up .5% on a monthly basis with an annual rate that is now at 5.5%. The core rate doesn’t include prices for food or gas. (2)   The Producer Price Index was also down an unexpected .1% in February. Economists had expected a .3% gain. The decrease brought the annual rate down to 4.6% which is substantially below the January reading of 5.7%. Most of the decline was due to a steep drop in egg prices. They came down more than 36%. The Fed will be paying attention to both those reports at the upcoming meeting, along with the risk to banks that rate hikes are causing. (3)   The job market continues to show strength. Jobless claims tumbled to 192,000 last week. That’s down from 212,000 the week before. The report suggests that companies are not laying off many workers, despite the tough economy. (4)   The government also reported good news about home construction. Housing starts were up almost 10% in February. Economists had estimated a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million, but the report shows 1.45 million. It’s the first time in six months that new home construction is higher. Building permit applications also surged higher by almost 14% indicating more new homes are in the pipeline. They are now up to 1.52 million, while economists had forecast 1.34 million. (5)   Builders are also showing more confidence. The National Association of Home Builders reports that its home-builder confidence index is up for a third month in a row. The reading is now up to 44 which is still below the midway point of 50. It was at 79 last year at this time. The NAHB says that home buyers are still wrestling with high prices and a tight inventory while builders are dealing with tight credit and a dwindling number of buildable lots. (6)   Mortgage Rates   After several weeks of slowly rising mortgage rates, they reversed course after the bank failures. That’s due to investors shifting money to safer assets such as Treasury notes and bonds. When that happens, Treasury yields fall along with mortgage rates which tend to follow those yields. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 13 basis points to 6.6%. The 15-year was down 5 points to 5.9%. (7)   In other news making headlines…   Homebuilders Blame the Media for Buyer Fears   Homebuilders are blaming the media for headlines that are scaring off home buyers. The NAHB says that almost 80% of home builders believe this. Last year, it was only 55%.   The issue is that most reports about the real estate market provide information on the entire U.S. But the nation is made up of hundreds of smaller real estate markets, and while some are seeing a pullback, others are doing quite well. Also, many buyers may not understand that a recent dip in home sales is part of a return to normal after a pandemic-related home-buying frenzy while interest rates were still super low.   Last November, a Lending Tree survey showed that 41% of consumers believed we’re headed for a housing market crash within the next year. While many consumers are worried about a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash, economists have offered many reasons why that won’t happen in today’s environment.    Chief economist for Nest Seekers International, Erin Sykes, says: “We’re now in a more balanced, health housing market.” And that’s the headline she’d like home buyers to pay attention to.   Foreign Buyers Rank U.S. Housing Market as “Excellent”   International buyers have a much healthier opinion about the U.S. housing market than domestic buyers. According to a survey by Global Luxury Coldwell Banker Real Estate, 80% of the participants call U.S. real estate a “safe investment.” The majority also rank U.S. real estate as either excellent or good. Contrast that with the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index which shows 79% of consumers saying it’s a bad time to buy a home.    Liz Gehringer of Coldwell Banker Affiliate Business says for the international buyer, the dream of homeownership is alive and well, although she says that international buyers also tend to buy in cash. She says: “Affluent buyers are flocking to diverse U.S. locations to enhance their portfolio diversification, with many opportunities for growth, investment and building long-term wealth.”   The top international buyers are coming from China, Canada, India, and Mexico. Most are buying properties in Florida, California, and Texas.    That’s it for today. You can find out how to diversify your portfolio by joining RealWealth at newsforinvestors.com. It’s free to join, and free to access all our data and resources. You can check the show notes for links and please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/fed-poised-to-approve-quarter-point-rate-hike-next-week-despite-market-turmoil.html   ​​2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cpi-shows-slightly-cooler-u-s-inflation-but-pressure-still-on-fed-to-raise-rates-fe88e2f5?mod=economic-report   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/ppi-february-2023-.html   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-tumble-to-192-000-and-show-no-sign-of-rising-layoffs-a2a78aa2?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-rise-by-9-8-in-february-led-by-a-surge-in-apartment-construction-aa4d395c?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-builder-confidence-rises-for-third-consecutive-month-despite-high-mortgage-rates-and-construction-costs-fa26d3a?mod=home-page   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/is-the-media-keeping-home-buyers-in-a-state-of-fear   9 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/rich-foreign-buyers-call-u-s-housing-market-excellent

Just out, the Consumer Price Index for February and it shows that inflation cooled slightly for the month. Government figures show it rose .4% which brings the annual inflation rate down to 6%. It was 6.4% last month.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   The report on the CPI also shows a .5% rise in the core rate of inflation, which omits volatile pricing for food and energy. That’s slightly higher than a .4% estimate for the core rate, but the annual core rate of 5.5% was inline with expectations.    Economists Expect Soften Fed Policy   Overall, inflation went down in February, but likely not enough to prevent another rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets next week. Economists expect the banking turmoil to soften the Fed’s stance however.   The head of Evercore ISI’s global policy and central bank strategy, Krishna Guha, told CNBC: “While only moderately higher than consensus, in the pre-SVB crisis world this may well have pushed the Fed to hike 50 basis points at its March meeting next week. It is a sign of how much things have changed in the very near term that 50 basis points is almost certainly off the table for March.”   Economists started predicting a 50 basis point rate hike after hawkish comments by Fed Chief Jerome Powell when he testified before two congressional committees. During two days of testimony, Powell said that interest rates will probably be “higher than previously anticipated.”    After the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks, economists now expect the Fed to back off a bit, but not completely. Jeffrey Roach, who’s the chief U.S. economist at LPL Financial told CNBC: “Even amid current banking scares, the Fed will still prioritize price stability over growth and likely hike rates by .25% at the upcoming meeting.   Inflation Rate Varies from Sector to Sector   When you break the report down into sectors, you see that lower energy prices helped bring the overall rate down. Energy prices were down .6% in February, to an annual rate of 5.2%. Food prices were up .4% although egg prices tumbled. They were down 6.7% but are still up 55.4% on a year-over-year  basis.   Shelter costs were .8% higher which brought the annual rise in shelter prices to 8.1%. Shelter costs make up about one third of the CPI, but fed officials expect those costs, including rent growth, to slow down throughout the year.   As Bright MLS chief economist, Lisa Sturtevant, told CNBC: “Housing costs are a key driver of the inflation figures, but they are also a lagging indicator. It typically takes six months for new rent data to be reflected in the CPI.” She says the fact that the data is six months old means that inflation levels are not accurately reflecting current rates of inflation.    Moody’s: Six Banks at Higher Risk of Failure   Fed officials will be taking this report into consideration at their meeting, along with other newly released economic data and the risk to the banking system. Moody’s released a list of six banks that it considered at higher risk of failure because of the current economic environment. Those banks include: First Republic Bank, Zions, Western Alliance, Comerica, UMB Financial and Intrust Financial. (2)   Economist Gus Faucher of PNC Financial Services told MarketWatch: “What was a tricky task for the Fed, raising rates by enough to cool off inflation, but not by too much as to push the economy into recession, has gotten even more difficult with the recent bank failures.” (3)   Check the show notes at newsforinvestors.com for links to our sources. I also encourage you to join RealWealth for free. When you become a member, you have access to more than just the Learning Center. You’ll be able to log in to the Investor Portal where you’ll find data on some of the best rental markets in the country, along with sample properties for sale to investors. Members also have access to our experienced investment counselors, and our list of property teams and other real estate professionals that can help put you on the path to financial freedom.   Thanks for listening, Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/cpi-inflation-february-2023-.html   2 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/investing/moodys-us-banks-downgrade/   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cpi-shows-slightly-cooler-u-s-inflation-but-pressure-still-on-fed-to-raise-rates-fe88e2f5

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 11th, 2023 and beyond… the collapse of three banks in one week, how this might change the Fed’s decision on a rate hike, and a new attempt to kill the 1031 exchange.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin the latest economic reports and the failure of a huge bank in Silicon Valley. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank happened in just 48 hours, after a $42 billion bank run. It’s now the second biggest bank collapse in U.S. history after the collapse of Washington Mutual in 2008.    The crisis began when the bank said it needed to raise $2.25 billion to shore up its balance sheet, but that spooked investors which include some of the biggest tech companies and venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. Withdrawals happened so rapidly that the company was forced to sell all of its available-for-sale bonds at a $1.8 billion loss. At the end of the two-day run, the bank had a negative cash balance of $958 million. (1)   Fintech investor Ryan Falvey of Restive Ventures told CNBC: “This was a hysteria-induced bank run caused by venture capitalists. This is going to go down as one of the ultimate cases of an industry cutting its nose off to spite its face.”   The root cause of the collapse goes deeper however, into the lap of the Federal Reserve and its fight against inflation. As the Fed hiked rates, many of the startups withdrew funds to keep their businesses afloat. That led to a funding shortfall at the bank, and the need to sell those bonds at a loss.    The government is trying to prevent further damage to the economy by taking control of SVB and promising to make good on all deposits including deposits worth more than the FDIC-insured $250,000 maximum. The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and FDIC said in a joint statement: “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.” (2)   Regulators are also dealing with two other bank failures. They have taken control of crypto-friendly Signature, which has a sizable commercial real estate loan portfolio. They are also promising that customers will have full access to their deposits, beyond the $250,000 FDIC insured amount. (3) It’s a different story for crypto-friendly Silvergate which has also failed. That bank started to go downhill after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX last year. At this point, the bank has now announced that is will shut down and liquidate assets to meet its obligations with depositors. (4)   Economists say the banking failures point to what some now expect to be a “hard landing” for the economy, or at least harder than the wished-for “soft landing.” While they were recently forecasting as much as a half point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting, there’s now talk that the Fed will have to back off. CNBC reports that the probability of a quarter point rate hike rose above 70% at one point last Friday. But the Fed will also be considering new economic data including a report on February’s Consumer Price Index. (5)   Moving on to the job market. Initial claims for unemployment jumped to 211,000 last week. That’s the highest since Christmas, but most of those lay-offs were in New York, so they may not indicate a national increase. Meanwhile, continuing claims were up 69,000 to a total of 1.72 million. (6)   As for job growth, the government says that companies created a robust 311,000 new jobs in February. That’s less than the 500,000 jobs created in January, but more than Wall Street analysts had forecasted. The unemployment rate did rise slightly to 3.6% and job openings have come down somewhat, to 10.8 million. In December, there were 11.2 million open positions and a record 12 million earlier in 2022. (7) (8)   Mortgage Rates   Checking in on mortgage rates… Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 8 basis points this last week, to 6.73%. The 15-year was up 6 points to 5.95%. (9)   In other news making headlines…   Another Whack at the 1031 Exchange   President Biden is taking another whack at the 1031 exchange. His budget proposal suggests that by eliminating 1031s, the government would collect an additional $19 billion. The 1031 gives real estate investors a way to transfer equity from one investment property to another similar property without triggering a taxable event. But it would only defer the tax obligation, not eliminate it. (10)   The White House is calling it a “sweetheart deal” for real estate investors, but it’s also a shot in the arm for the economy, when investors can reinvest without taking an immediate tax hit. Let’s say you own a property that has increased in value, and you’d like to sell that property so you can buy a similar property elsewhere. If you have a huge tax bill, you wouldn’t have enough money to do that, which might discourage you from selling in the first place. The 1031 allows for movement within the real estate industry, and a tax bill that comes due when the investor eventually sells without reinvesting.    Biden’s budget proposal also seeks to eliminate the carried-interest tax break. It says the loophole allows “wealthy investment managers to pay a 20% rate on the pay they receive for managing fund assets, instead of the 37% rate that comparable wage earners pay.” And that by closing this loophole, the government would save $6 billion dollars.    That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   If you’d like to learn more about how to invest in real estate and the benefits of a 1031 exchange, go to newsforinvestors.com. You can join RealWealth for free and have access to our Learning Center and our Investor Portal. That’s at newsforinvestors.com.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-how-it-happened.html   2 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulators-close-new-yorks-signature-bank-citing-systemic-risk.html   4 - https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/03/10/how-silvergates-crypto-collapse-differed-from-silicon-valley-banks-no-us-government-bailout/   5 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/just-like-that-market-pricing-swings-back-to-quarter-point-fed-rate-hike.html   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-jump-to-211-000-and-hit-highest-level-since-christmas-6911db39?mod=home-page   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-shows-strong-311-000-gain-in-february-puts-pressure-on-fed-for-bigger-rate-hike-1e45fe1e?mod=home-page   8 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-drop-to-10-8-million-but-they-are-still-too-high-for-the-fed-1111e9ea?mod=economic-report   9 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   10 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/biden-budget-proposes-end-to-1031-exchanges-118036

The Fed may have a difficult time determining its progress against inflation later this year, as the two biggest inflation indicators contradict each other. The Federal Reserve prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures index or PCE as a basis for its 2% inflation target. But due to the differences between the PCE and the Consumer Price Index or CPI, they might reverse their roles and cause confusion.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please don’t forget to subscribe to our podcast, and leave us a five-star review if you like what you hear!   The CPI is more closely watched by average Americans, and it’s been the one to show the highest level of inflation. But according to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal, as inflation subsides, it could drop below the PCE, making it difficult for the Fed to explain rate hikes based on the PCE. (1)   Difference Between the CPI and the PCE Indexes   Economists are betting that the CPI will fall to 2.6% in October while the PCE will drop to about 2.8%. Barclays inflation expert, Michael Pond, says: “That will leave market participants looking at low inflation while the Fed looks at a measure that tells them they need to continue to be quite hawkish.”    The two indexes perform differently because they place different amounts of emphasis on various components of the economy. For example, housing makes up 33% of the CPI which is more than twice the size of the housing component in the PCE. Shelter inflation is rising about 8% per year right now in both indexes, so the strength in housing in pushing the CPI higher. As the Journal reports, it contributed 2.5 percentage points to the CPI’s January reading of 6.4% while it only contributed 1.2 percentage points to the PCE’s January report.   Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina expected CPI shelter inflation to fall from 8.1% in March to 5.5% in December. If that happens it will weigh more heavily on the CPI, bringing the total amount of inflation down by a larger percentage than the PCE.    Economists also believe that medical care costs will play a role in this disconnect between the CPI and PCE. Those costs are expected to rise this year. They make up 16% of the PCE and just under 7% of the CPI. If they do go higher, that will put more pressure on the PCE than it does on the CPI.    There’s also concern that energy costs will help invert these two indicators because they make up 6.9% of the CPI and just 4% of the PCE. If energy costs keep falling, that will exert more deflationary pressure on the CPI.    CPI Could Drop Lower than the PCE   City economist Veronica Clark told the Journal that a combination of the factors could bring the CPI down to 3.2% by June while the PCE is closer to 3.6%. She expects the gap to be even bigger for core inflation. She says: “For the Fed, the message could be kind of tricky. They target PCE, technically, so as long as the PCE remains high, they can’t declare victory.”    You’ll find a link to the Wall Street Journal article in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. We also invite you to become a RealWealth member. It’s free and will give you full access to all our real estate data and resources, including property tours in several markets over the next few months. You’ll find information on those tours inside the Realty Portal on our website. I would also like to remind everyone to please subscribe to the podcast if you haven’t done so already and leave a review!   Thanks for listening, Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 -  https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-might-be-winning-inflation-fight-depending-on-index-used-56d3e31b?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 4th, 2023... the Fed Chief's testimony before Congress for the current week along with a forecast on home prices and what national rent growth is doing for single family homes and multi-families.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell about the central bank's fight against inflation. He spoke before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee on March 7th and 8th. Bloomberg reports that he softened his tone slightly on the second day, saying that Fed officials will wait for new data on Jobs and inflation before they decide on the size of a rate hike when they meet later this month. He did say the rates will likely go higher than previously anticipated, but that depends on the new data and whether it indicates that the economy is still running hot. (1)   Recent economic data shows strong job growth and inflation that seems to be ticking higher, instead of lower. But the Fed will be getting February reports on jobs, inflation, and retail sales before the Fed’s next meeting on March 21st and 22nd. Those reports will have a strong influence on the central bank’s next move. Short-term rates are currently running between 4.5% and 4.75%. The Fed has penciled in a target range of 5% to 5.25%.    The weekly jobless report shows that initial unemployment claims were down again, for the seventh week in a row. They’ve been holding steady below 200,000, which is near a historic low. Last week, there were 192,000 new claims. Continuing claims also dropped. They were down 5,000 to 1.66 million. (2)   Pending home sales bumped higher in January. The National Association of Realtors says that contract signings for existing homes rose 8.1%. That’s a big bump, and the highest since June of 2020. That follows a pull-back in home sales as mortgage rates pushed higher, and then came back down slightly. Unfortunately, they have been rising again so we may see a new lull in home sales. NAR expects an 11.1% drop in existing-home sales for 2023. (3)   Construction spending was down slightly in January. The government says it dropped .1%. Spending is up overall, at 5.7% for the past year. As for single-family construction, it was down 1.7% in January. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates continue to move higher, as I mentioned. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 15 basis points this last week, to 6.65%. The 15-year was up 13 points to 5.89%. (5) The Mortgage News Daily has the average pegged at 7.1% for the 30-year. The Daily’s COO, Matthew Graham says: “Rates continue to move at the suggestion of economic data, and the data hasn’t been friendly. This is scary considering this week’s data is insignificant compared to several upcoming reports.” (6)   In other news making headlines…   Lower Home Prices in the Coming Months?   As mortgage rates hover in the 7% range, home prices will likely head lower in the coming months. According to Redfin, the typical U.S. home sold for just over $350,000 in February. That’s down .6% from the previous year, and the first time prices have fallen since February 2012. But that’s not making homes more affordable. The typical mortgage payment has hit a record high of $2,520. (7)   Redfin’s Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr says: “Mortgage rates rising to the 7% range was the straw that broke the camel’s back, dampening home buying demand and leading to sellers asking less for their homes.” He expects prices to come down a bit more in the months ahead, but he says: “First-time buyers hoping to score a major deal this year are likely out of luck… because so few homeowners are listing their homes for sale.”   When it comes to affordability, Redfin says that just 1 in 5 home listings were affordable last year. That’s down from 2 in 5 in 2021. (8)   National Rent Growth Rebound   Multi-family rent growth did a u-turn in February, with the first positive number in several months. Apartmentlist.com reports that after months of decline, it was up by .3% in February to a year-over-year increase of 3%. The research team says it’s following a seasonal trend and shows that rental demand is rebounding. (9)   Single-family rent growth dropped by about 50% in December, but the latest report from CoreLogic shows that that annual rate is 6.4%. The report says that the average rent for a detached rental home had gone up about $300 a month over the past two years. And that markets in Florida, including Orlando and Miami have posted the highest gains. (10)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. If you’re interested in learning more about real estate investing, please click on the Learn tab. When you become a member, you’ll have full access to the site. That includes our market data, property teams, investment counselors, and a list of property tours that RealWealth is offering over the next few months.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/powell-says-no-decision-made-on-speeding-up-pace-of-rate-hikes#xj4y7vzkg   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-again-and-stay-below-200-000-for-seventh-week-in-a-row-523a6d27?mod=home-page   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-rise-8-1-in-january-largest-increase-since-june-2020-1896d2d7?mod=search_headline   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-construction-spending-falls-slightly-in-january-87b95bce?mod=mw_latestnews   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html   7 - https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sale-prices-fall-first-time/   8 - https://www.redfin.com/news/share-of-homes-affordable-2022/   9 - https://rentalhousingjournal.com/national-rent-growth-turns-positive-in-february/?utm_source=Master+Vendors&utm_campaign=88767b9e22-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_01_02_51&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-88767b9e22-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D   10 - https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogic-us-annual-rent-price-growth-dropped-by-nearly-half-in-december/

Home values have been coming down since they peaked in June of last year. A Redfin report shows the U.S. total went as high as $47.7 trillion before it dropped to $45.3 trillion in December. That’s a 4.9% decline and the largest June-to-December percentage drop since 2008. The report also shows that home values in some markets are holding up well, with double-digit year-over-year gains.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please don’t forget to subscribe to our podcast, and leave us a five-star review if you like what you hear!   According to Redfin, December year-over-year home values were still 6.5% higher nationally, but that’s the smallest year-over-year increase since August of 2020. The analysis included data on 99 million U.S. residential properties in the top 100 metros for population. (1)   Fight Against Inflation Impacting Home Values   Property values started declining after what seemed like an unstoppable run-up in home values. Inflation really took off after all the government stimulus during the pandemic, and now the Fed is trying to slow things down with rate hikes. Although the higher short-term rates are not directly connected to mortgage rates, they do have an impact. And when mortgage rates rise, home prices fall.   The median U.S. home price hit a peak of $433,133 in May, and then dropped 11.5% to $383,249 in January. While that was happening, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.08% last November and has come down closer to the 6% level since then, but it’s still more than two times what it was for years before that.   On the bright side, people who bought homes before or during the pandemic are still seeing gains. Redfin’s Chen Zhao says: “The total value of U.S. homes remains roughly $13 trillion higher than it was in February 2020, the month before the coronavirusvwas declared a pandemic.”   Florida Home Value Holding Up Well   But one of the more interesting results of this analysis – it shows that home values in Florida and other Southeast metros are not only holding up well, but rising in many areas.   Redfin says the total value of homes in Miami were up 19.7% year-over-year in December. That’s a huge annual increase.   North Port-Sarasota was second on the list of rising Florida home values with a 17.8% year-over-year increase. Knoxville, Tennessee, was next with a 17.7% increase. Charleston, South Carolina, follows with a 17.4% increase. And then we’re back to Florida, where Lakeland was up 16.9%. When you look at the top ten metros for home value appreciation, six of them were in Florida, including Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tampa.    Palm Beach Redfin agent, Elena Fleck, says: “Florida’s housing market is being sustained by folks moving in from the North and as of recently, the West Coast.” She says that “people are pouring in from New Jersey and New York” thanks to Florida’s affordability and the fact that Florida has no income tax.   Suburbs Are Doing Better than the Cities   The report also shows that home values are doing better in the suburbs than they are in the cities. That’s the result of the remote worker exodus that continues although many companies are demanding that employees spend at least some time in the office.   The housing market that lost the highest percentage value in this recent decline is the San Francisco Bay Area. You might also expect to see declines In markets where there’s a high risk of flooding or heat, but they’ve done better than other areas. Redfin says that suggests that climate dangers are not yet priced into home values.   You’ll find a link to the Redfin report in the show notes for this episode at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth at our website. It’s free and easy to join for access to all our data on strong rental property markets. If you’d like to see some of these properties in person, please check out our tour page. We have several tours lined up over the next few months.   As always, I ask everyone to please subscribe to our podcast, and follow me on instagram @kathyfettke.    Thanks for listening! I’m Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-loses-value-2023/

I n this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 25th, 2023... the latest disappointing report on inflation, a Q4 report on investor home-buying activity, and a new prediction for institutional ownership of single-family rentals.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week and a report that inflation remains stubbornly high. According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures index or PCE, the cost of goods and services rose .6% in January. That’s the largest increase since last summer, and raises the annual rate from 5.3% to 5.4%. The core rate, which excludes food and fuel, was also up .6% and raises the annual core rate of inflation from 4.6% to 4.7%. The disappointing results follow two other hot inflation reports for January. It’s not clear if this is just a blip in the battle against inflation or a change of course, but it does suggest that the Federal Reserve may keep its foot on the rate hike gas pedal. (1)   The next meeting of the Federal Reserve Board is March 21st and 22nd, so a lot can happen between now and then. Fed officials raised the rate a quarter point during their February meeting to a range of 4.5 to 4.75%. The minutes show there’s unanimous support for continued rate hikes although some Fed officials believe the economic risks have become more balanced and not just focused on inflation. A few members suggested the need for a half point rate hike to speed up the Fed’s inflation-reducing strategy but it wasn’t written into the minutes as an effort supported by all members. (2) (3)   Several of the regional Fed Presidents also spoke out last week, including Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester. She said last Friday that interest rates may need to move higher to curb inflation but she’s still optimistic that it can be done without triggering a recession. (4)   And it’s “so far so good” for the job market. U.S. jobless claims were lower last week by about 3,000 to a total of 192,000. That’s below the forecast and a sign of strength for the job market. (5)   On to the housing market…   New home sales were up 7.2% in January thanks to strong sales in the South. They were up 17.1% in the Southern region and down everywhere else. The Northeast had the biggest drop of 19.4%. U.S. year-over-year sales are still down 19.4%. (6)   Existing home sales were also higher in the South and the West, but they were down overall by .7%. As reported by MarketWatch, the amount of sales activity was the lowest since October of 2010. Year-over-year, they were down 36.9%. (7)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates floated higher last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was up 18 basis points to 6.5%. The 15-year was up 25 points to 5.76%. Freddie also said that as average rates rise, there may be a big difference in rates from lender to lender so it’s best to shop around. (8)   In other news making headlines…   Real Estate Investor Activity Down Almost 50% in Q4   It isn’t just retail home buyers who are sitting on the housing market sidelines. Many investors are too. A new Redfin report shows that investor home purchases were down 46% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, but the share of homes bought by investors is about the same. It slid from 19% to 18% for the year. (9)   Redfin says that investors had piled into the market in 2021 because of low mortgage rates and high demand for housing. But many are now waiting for rates and prices to come down. Florida agent Elena Fleck says: “A lot of investors are on hold because they still see home prices declining.” She says: “The investors who are in the market are selective and aggressive. Many of them are only offering around 60% of the asking price since it’s so difficult to make a profit when flipping homes right now.”   Investor activity varies from market to market. The report says investors activity is down the most in pandemic boomtowns like Phoenix and Las Vegas. But there are many markets where the investor share of purchased homes is higher, including Miami, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Charlotte.    Will Institutional Investors Own 40% of Single-Family Rentals by 2030?   The institutional ownership of single-family rentals could mushroom over the next several years. According to an analysis by MetLife Investment Management, their share was about 5% early last year, and by 2030, it could be more than 40%. That’s about 7.6 million homes controlled by rental portfolio giants like Tricon Residential, Progress Residential, American Homes 4 Rent, and Invitation Homes. (10)   Representative Ro Khanna from California authored the “Stop Wall Street Landlords Act of 2022.” If it passes, it would provide disincentives for institutional investors such as an excise tax on the sale or transfer of a single-family home that’s equal to the price of the home. It would also eliminate deductions for mortgage interest, insurance, and depreciation. (11)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links, and join RealWealth if you’d like to know where it still makes sense to invest in single-family rentals. We’re offering several market tours over the next few months. You can join RealWealth and check out the tours at newsforinvestors.com.   And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-jumps-in-early-2023-pce-shows-and-stays-stubbornly-high-e406552a?mod=economy-politics   2 - ​​https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-some-officials-thought-easier-financial-conditions-could-mean-tighter-monetary-policy-bf431e25?mod=federal-reserve   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/22/fed-minutes-february-2023-minutes-show-fed-members-resolved-to-keep-fighting-inflation.html   4 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/feds-mester-says-she-has-hope-that-inflation-can-be-brought-down-without-a-recession.html   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-stay-firmly-below-200-000-for-6th-straight-week-2ccc7a46?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=home-page   6 - ​​https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-rise-by-7-2-despite-weakness-in-the-broader-sector-13f6dde4?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-12th-straight-month-in-january-lowest-since-2010-17a703ba?mod=economic-report   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2022/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/how-wall-street-bought-single-family-homes-and-put-them-up-for-rent.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate   11 - https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/9246?s=1&r=2

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 18th, 2023... a double dose of inflation data, why investors might save the day for the housing market, and what remote workers are worried about this winter.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. The government released “two” inflation reports, that show we’re not making as much progress as we’d like in taming those high prices. The Consumer Price Index or CPI shows that the cost of living was up .5% in January, with a slight drop in the annual rate from 6.5% to 6.4%. The core rate, which omits food and gas, was also higher than expected at .4% for January and an annual rate of 5.6%.   Most of the increase was due to higher housing costs and gas prices, and was higher than Wall Street economists expected. Rents were up .7% in January while the yearly cost for shelter jumped to a new peak of 7.9%. Housing is the single largest CPI category, but it’s also a lagging indicator by about six months. (1)   The latest Producer Price Index or PPI was also released and shows a .7% jump for January. Economists had expected about half that much. The annual rate is down from 6.5% to 6% however, but both reports show that inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. (2)   Meanwhile the job market is showing stubborn resilience against the Fed’s effort to slow the economy. Initial jobless claims were still below 200,000 for a fifth week in a row. Ongoing claims rose slightly to 1.7 million. Both readings are still low, although the continuing claims have been rising gradually since last spring. (3)   Housing starts were down again, thanks to builder concern about a lull in buying activity. The Commerce Department says they were down a seasonally adjusted 4.5% in January to 1.31 million. As MarketWatch reports, construction is now at its lowest level since June of 2020 with the annual rate of housing starts off by 27.3%. But, builders are becoming more confident about an increase in sales, with signs that they plan to increase production in the coming months. (4)   The National Association of Homebuilders says the home-builder confidence index is now up to 42. It’s still below the breakeven point of 50 but it’s an 11 point jump from December. (5)    Mortgage Rates   The rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage didn’t move much this past week. Freddie Mac says the average was up two basis points to 6.32%. But the 15-year was up a quarter of a point, to 5.51%. (6)   In other news making headlines…   Will Investors Prevent a Housing Market Crash?   A billionaire real estate fund manager is speculating that investors will prevent a housing market crash. The rapid rise in home prices combined with higher interest rates have sidelined a lot of buyers, and there’s speculation that we’ll end up seeing a housing market crash. But Grant Cardone told Benzinga that “investors will re-enter the market before it starts teetering toward a crash. He apparently plans to be one of those investors. (7)   He said in a statement: “Investors will step in to pick up single-family homes at lower prices with less competition. That being said, there will be no housing crash. Investors, like myself, will save the day and step in to buy the home.”   Strong Year Expected for Build-to-Rent SFRs   A new analysis of Census Bureau data shows the market share of build-to-rent homes is growing, and the trend is expected to continue. The National Association of Home Builders reports a 6% increase in build-to-rent starts during the fourth quarter of last year. That’s about 17,000 homes, with a yearly total of about 69,000. Compared to 2021, that’s a 33% increase. (8)   The numbers only include homes that were specifically built for renting, and not for homes that were sold to another party for rental purposes. Based on industry surveys, the NAHB estimates that the build-to-rent market share is higher by another 5% or more if you include those homes.    Remote Work Getting Too Expensive for Some Workers   While many remote workers love the freedom to work from home or wherever, the winter months have apparently been a wake-up call for some. Remaining at thome means higher heating bills, and with the rising cost of energy, that’s turning into a big expense for some people. (9)   Internet provider Sky Connect conducted a survey among 1,000 remote workers and found that 87% are worried about their energy bills. Many said they have been forced to find another place to set up shop, like a local cafe. The only downside is that internet service may not be as reliable.   The upside is the support of local businesses, and the need for those businesses to provide the kind of working environment that will keep those remote workers happy when they are not working from home.    That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to join our network of investors at newsforinvestors.com, and subscribe to our podcast. Our podcast team would also greatly appreciate a review.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cpi-shows-u-s-inflation-still-sticky-e08c9671?mod=economic-report   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-surges-in-early-2023-ppi-shows-2efefb24?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-stay-below-200-000-for-fifth-straight-week-labor-market-still-hot-b7f7aa9e?mod=economy-politic   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-fall-by-4-5-in-january-to-the-lowest-level-since-june-2020-3aebe306?mod=search_headline   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-investors-will-save-us-housing-market-from-crash-2023-2   7 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/02/single-family-built-for-rent-growth-strong-in-2022/   8 - https://fortune.com/2023/02/16/remote-workers-wfh-expensive-utility-costs-sky-connect/

Population growth, job growth, and infrastructure growth are some of the essential ingredients for a healthy real estate market. They all feed into housing demand, and should be important considerations for determining where to buy rental property. A recent NAR report on population growth puts Florida and Texas at the very top of a national list for population growth in 2022.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   “Where People Moved in 2022”   The National Association of Realtors published an article called “Where People Moved in 2022.” It is based on data from the Census Bureau data on net migration for each state. Not only did Florida have the highest number of newcomers at 318,855 people, it also had the highest percentage of population growth at 1.9%.   Other states with impressive statistics include Texas, which was second on the list for the highest number of new residents. The data shows 230,961 people moved to Texas, but the percentage of new residents was a little lower than Florida at 1.6%. Idaho and South Carolina were higher than Texas when you look at the growth percentage. Those figures were 1.8 and 1.7% respectively.   Other states near the top of the list include North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Nevada. The list ranks all 50 states so you can see for yourself where each state stands for in-migration and out-migration.   California was at the very bottom of the list with the loss of 343,230 residents. That lowers the population by -.3%. New York wasn’t much better with the loss of almost 300,000 people and a population decline of -.9%.   Why Investors Love Florida & Texas   Getting back to places like Florida and Texas, they are both in the Sun Belt region which attracts a lot of people. They are still more affordable than many markets around the country, and both have experienced a robust job recovery after the pandemic.   At RealWealth, we've been strong advocates of both the Florida and Texas markets, for cash flow and growth. To help investors get to know the areas, we have set up property tours through out the next few months. Starting with Dallas on February 25th and 26th, Orlando on March 4th, Southwest Florida on March 18th, Tampa on March 25th, Charlotte, North Carolina on April 1st, Indianapolis on April 15th, Jacksonville, and Florida on April 22nd. I will personally be attending the Tampa tour on March 25th, so I hope to see you there! You can see the list and get all the details at realwealth.com/tours/. You need to be a RealWealth member to sign up for the tours, but it’s free to join at newsforinvestors.com.   As always, I ask everyone to please subscribe to our podcast, and follow me on instagram @kathyfettke.    Thanks for listening! I’m Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/where-people-moved-in-2022

A debate over the definition of an accredited investor is underway ahead of an SEC meeting that could make it tougher to quality. The SEC Chairman is reportedly in favor of making the definition more restrictive, and that’s raising concerns among lawmakers, financial scholars and business startups who feel that opportunities for investing should be expanded, not diminished. (1)   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   What is an Accredited Investor?   If you’ve been wanting to invest in a private placement, such as an apartment or storage syndication, but haven’t yet met the requirements of an accredited investor, you may be feeling the frustration. The SEC requires an individual to earn at least $200,000 a year as an individual, $300,000 a year as a couple, or a networth of $1,000,000 or more which excludes the value of a primary residence.   Accredited vs. Sophisticated   The SEC does allow a small number of non-accredited investors in certain private placements - 35 to be exact. And though they may not be accredited, they do have to be "sophisticated."  Investopedia defines a sophisticated investor as someone “with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial and business matters to make them capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the prospective investment.” (2)(3) That knowledge or experience would need to be obvious to the private placement sponsor or syndicator. That could include an employee with knowledge about investing opportunities, risks, and the deal itself.   The sophisticated investor designation is allowed in a 506(b) offering under Regulation D - but again only 35 "sophisticated" investors are allowed, and they must have a pre-existing relationship with the sponsor. The Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, or JOBS Act, of 2012 allowed investors with no prior existing relationship to participate in a private placements for the first time through a new category called 506(c). This allows syndicators and fund managers to market their offerings to the public, but does not allow non-accredited sophisticated investors. Only accredited investors are allowed in a private placement that advertises publicly.   Support for Less Restrictive Definition   At a House hearing on what the SEC is currently planning to do, Committee Chairwoman Rep. Ann Wagner said: “It is no secret that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s agenda includes sweeping new regulations in our private markets that would create barriers for investors and entrepreneurs to participate in those markets.”   An article in The DI Wire says notes on the SEC’s agenda show that Gensler plans to change “the accredited investor definition by increasing the annual income and net worth thresholds.” The SEC began soliciting public comments on potential changes last year to “update the rules” and “more effectively promote investor protection.” (4)   Representative Brad Sherman that the current definition doesn’t make sense and needs reform. He says: “That doesn’t mean it should be more restrictive or less restrictive than what we have now, but it should be different.”   Is the Current Accredited Investor Definition Unfair?   Director of Financial Regulation Studies at the Cato Institute, Jennifer Schulp, was more critical. She testified that the accredited investor definition is “unfair” and objected to the idea that the SEC decides “who gets to invest where: public markets for most, but public and private markets for those it judges to be worthy.”   She says: “Such paternalism – limiting how people can invest their money – is objectionable in itself. The SEC should not be charged with protecting individuals from their choices to take certain kinds of financial risk.” She highlighted the fact that in 2010, the SEC “shrank” the pool of accredited investors by adding a clause to the Dodd-Frank Act that excludes the value of a person’s primary home.   Proposed Certification Exam   Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Rep. Patrick McHenry, had introduced the Equal Opportunity for All Investors Act. It calls for the SEC to offer an accredited investor certification exam for people with investment knowledge and experience. He said during the hearing that he looks forward to moving ahead with legislative proposals that would improve the accredited investor definition. (5)   Meantime, the SEC rulemaking session is scheduled for April.   You can read more about the evolution of this issue by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. If you’d like to learn more about the private placement deals that we offer at RealWealth, please go to GrowDevelopments.com. We are currently offering a North Dallas Rental Fund for people who want to leave the landlording and property management to someone else, but would like the financial benefits of owning rental property. However, this deal is only available to accredited investors who fit the current definition. Please hit the join button at the RealWealth home page for access to all our news and data on the U.S. real estate market. And don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast and follow me on instagram @kathyfettke for real estate market updates and commentary.   Thanks for listening!    Links:   1 - https://thediwire.com/house-hearing-debates-changes-to-the-secs-definition-of-accredited-investor/   2 - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sophisticatedinvestor.asp   3 - https://thediwire.com/sec-expands-definition-of-accredited-investor/   4 - https://thediwire.com/sec-signals-changes-to-accredited-investor-definition/   5 - https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/02/08/lawmakers-grapple-with-accredited-investor-definition/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 11th, 2023... What’s ahead for single-family rentals and build-to-rent homes, along with a look at why Los Angeles landlords may be fuming right now, over a new law.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell, about last week’s surprisingly strong January jobs report. He said of the report: “It was certainly stronger than anyone I know expected.” (1) The blowout report surpassed expectations with 517,000 new jobs, and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.4%. (2)    With 5 million more jobs than there are workers to fill them, Powell is concerned that competition for workers will lead to continued inflationary wage growth. He says the “disinflationary” process has begun, and expects to see significant declines in inflation this year, but expects it will take more rate hikes, and all of next year to get inflation back to the 2% level, especially with such a strong job market. Powell says: “If we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more.”   On the positive side of the jobs report are comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook who believes the Fed’s rate hikes “can be accomplished without a large increase in unemployment.” And that raises hope for a “soft landing.” (3)   There’s still talk that the federal funds rate will peak at 5% to 5.25%. We are currently in  the 4.5% to 4.75% range. New York Fed Chief John Williams is among those who see 5% as a peak short-term rate, although he reiterated during an interview with the Wall Street Journal that there is still much work to be done.   As for the weekly jobless report, initial claims were 13,000 higher than the week before, but they are still near pandemic lows. The total was 196,000. Continuing claims were up 38,000 to a total of 1.69 million. There has been a gradual increase in those continuing claims which may indicate that it’s taking longer for people to find new jobs. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates ticked up slightly. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3 basis points higher at 6.12%. The 15-year was 11 points higher at 5.25%. (5)   In other news making headlines…   Single-Family Rentals Forecast   A new analysis by Green Street says that single-family rentals will be “well-positioned” for the next five years. GlobeSt.com reported on the analysis by John Pawlowski who says that single-family rentals will benefit from strong demographics, affordable price points, and limited single-family construction. Pawlowski also expects SFR communities to benefit from the 35 to 44-year old age group which is expected to grow at double the rate of other age groups.  He says that many of these communities are in the Southeast, either existing, planned, or under construction. (6)   The Green Street report also describes this asset class as “resilient” with a “firm floor” for rents and values. The fact that renting has become more affordable than owning contributes to this outlook. But he does warn about headwinds. He says expects higher operating costs to continue without much relief in sight. That includes costs for repairs, maintenance, and property taxes. There are also political risks ahead for this asset class, due to potential regulation that mainly targets institutional investors.   Strong Year for Build-to-Rent    New build-to-rent homes are also expected to do well this year. Brad Hunter of Hunter Housing Economics told GlobeSt.com that he expects to see another “up” year with somewhat slower leasing activity. But he sees this as a temporary lull with flat rent growth for the next few quarters. He says: “By this Fall, we’ll see rent growth come back again, and probably fairly strongly.” He’s predicting rent growth of 5 to 6% by 2025 or even sometime next year. (7)   A limited supply of new single-family homes will push demand higher for renters, especially among Millennials with growing families. He says the spotlight is on the Southeast with “continued strong demand and solid performance in BTR, even during 2023, but at an even greater level from 2024 to 2028.” And he says that “Florida is going to be one of the strongest markets… but Georgia and the Carolinas will also see a lot of strong performance.”   LA Landlords Hit with New Renter Protection Law   Los Angeles is adding another financial burden to the business of being a landlord. The city council approved a new law that would force landlords to pay relocation costs, if they hike rents more than 10%. Relocation costs would be three times the fair market rent, plus another $1,400 in moving expenses. (8)   This is just the final part of a tenant protections package that the council put together after Covid emergency measures expired. The new ordinance would apply to tenants in newer homes who are not already covered by existing rent control laws. There are 84,000 of those homes in L.A., all built after 2008.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. Please remember to hit the join button to become a RealWealth member. It’s free to join, and free to access the data on our site. We just held an all-day virtual live event with property teams from markets across the country. We’ll be uploading videos to our website from that event for people who missed it. And don’t forget to subscribe to our podcast, and follow me on Instagram for market updates @kathyfettke.    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-strong-jobs-report-shows-fed-needs-to-keep-raising-rates-but-he-expects-significant-declines-in-inflation-rate-in-2023-11675794928?mod=federal-reserve   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-adds-517-000-new-jobs-in-january-in-sign-labor-market-still-strong-11675431419?mod=home-page   3 - https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-cook-january-job-gains-increase-hopes-soft-landing-2023-02-08/   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-13-000-to-196-000-still-near-pandemic-era-low-11675949780   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 -  https://www.globest.com/2023/02/06/sfr-is-well-positioned-even-as-headwinds-persist/   7 - https://www.globest.com/2023/02/08/2023-will-be-another-strong-year-for-btr-despite-slowing-rent-growth/   8 - https://www.dailybreeze.com/2023/02/07/new-law-in-la-landlords-must-pay-relocation-costs-if-they-raise-rents-too-high/

Tension between the U.S. and China has spilled into the U.S. real estate market, with specific concern about the ownership of American farmland. There’s new legislation by two House members that would prohibit the purchase of farmland by Chinese citizens. There’s also an increasing number of states that are approving or considering similar limits or bans, including one that’s creating a lot of controversy right now in Texas.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   As a headline in Fortune warns: “Forget the Chinese balloon – selling farmland to foreign nationals is the real worry.” You’ve probably been following the balloon incident. It was first spotted by a cattle rancher in Washington state, although defense officials said the next day that they were tracking what they suspected was a Chinese spy balloon. (1)   Chinese Surveillance Balloon Shot Down   U.S. officials allowed it to float all the way across the U.S. before it was shot down with a missile off the coast of South Carolina. They reportedly felt it wasn’t a threat as it made its way over the American heartland, but they also wanted to prevent injuries as the mammoth balloon and its equipment fell to earth.   Officials say the balloon created a huge debris field from what they are estimating was a 200 foot tall balloon carrying surveillance equipment. One article by CBS News described the equipment as the size of two or three school buses. The article cites intelligence officials who believe the balloon was operated by the People’s Liberation Army which is the main military arm of the Chinese Communist Party. (2) China initially claimed the balloon was being used to monitor the weather and accused the U.S. of overreacting to its presence.   Bill to Ban China-Owned Farmland   Legislation that would ban the purchase of farmland by individuals or entities linked to the Chinese government was introduced shortly after this incident. It’s called: “Prohibition of Agricultural Land for the People’s Republic of China Act,” introduced by Congresswoman Cathy McMorris and Congressman Dan Newhouse, both Republicans from Washington state.   McMorris said on her website: “Agriculture is Eastern Washington’s number one industry. We simply cannot allow companies from China to lock down our resources and undermine our farmers and ranchers’ ability to feed the world.” She says: “Prohibiting the Chinese Communist Party from purchasing farmland in the United States is a no-brainer.” (3)   McMorris says that six states have already enacted laws prohibiting the foreign ownership of farmland, including Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Oklahoma. The New York Times reports that 11 states are considering legislation restricting the ownership of farmland or real estate in general by foreign entities. That information comes from the National Conference of State Legislatures. (4)   Texas Proposal to Ban China-Owned Real Estate   Texas is one of the states wrestling with that issue right now. The proposed legislation would expand on a bill passed a few years ago called the Lone Star Infrastructure Protection Act. That bill was a response to the purchase of 140,000 acres by a Chinese billionaire to build a wind farm close to a U.S. Air Force Base. There was concern that the turbines could be used to spy on U.S. military operations, or that the generation of electricity of the wind farm could be withheld and then used for ransom at some point. (5)   Now, with the balloon issue making headlines, a Texas state senator is proposing an expanded version of that law that would ban the purchase of land, homes or any kind of real estate by any Chinese company or individual. The issue is generating controversy because the legislation also targets people who are simply Chinese immigrants.   Texas Governor Greg Abbott reportedly plans to sign the bill if it passes. It would “not” impact any Chinese immigrants who already own property.   There have been protests by people who say the bill is discriminatory. The American Civil Liberties Union and legal scholars are tracking it, and many don’t believe it will hold up, legally. One University of Texas law professor says the bill would “raise a host of constitutional issues.”   Protecting the Future of U.S. Farmland   As for how much farmland is already owned by Chinese entities, government data shows that ownership has been growing slowly over recent years. At the end of 2020, Chinese owners controlled about 350,000 acres of farmland, which isn’t a huge amount. It’s only about 1% of the 3% of farmland owned by all foreign entities and individuals. (6)   The big concern is how to safeguard our farmland for the future. If the House bill becomes law, it would prohibit “the purchase of public or private agricultural real estate located in the United States by nationals of the People’s Republic of China.” (7)   You can read more about this issue by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. Please hit the join link for up-to-date news and data on the U.S. real estate market. It’s free to join, and takes less than a minute. And don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast and follow me on instagram @kathyfettke for real estate market updates and commentary.   Thanks for listening! I’m Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://fortune.com/2023/02/08/forget-chinese-balloonselling-farmland-to-foreigners-concerns-us-lawmakers/   2 - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-shot-down-over-atlantic-taller-than-statue-of-liberty/   3 - https://mcmorris.house.gov/posts/mcmorris-rodgers-newhouse-introduce-bill-to-block-china-from-purchasing-american-farmland   4 - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/us/texas-china-ownership-real-estate-ban.html   5 - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9885259/Secretive-Chinese-billionaire-buys-140-000-acres-Texas-wind-farm-blocked-governor.html   6 -  https://www.fsa.usda.gov/Assets/USDA-FSA-Public/usdafiles/EPAS/PDF/2020_afida_annual_report.pdf   7 - https://newhouse.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/newhouse.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2.2.2023-china-act.pdf

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 4th, 2023... another Fed rate hike with an encouraging forecast for the coming months, what Elon Musk is doing with Lennar in Texas, and why real estate agents are embracing an artificial intelligence chatbot called ChatGPT.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from the past week. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee hiked short-term rates by another quarter point, as expected. That raises the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.5 to 4.75%. It’s the highest it’s been since October of 2007, and will likely go higher before the Federal Reserve is convinced that inflation is subsiding. During a news conference, Fed Chief Jerome Powell said: “While recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.” (1)   Economists are generally seeing at least one or two more quarter point hikes with the possibility of rate cuts after that. The weekly CNBC Fed Survey shows that 82% of participating economists are forecasting another quarter point hike in March as “baked in” with the possibility of a policy reversal after that, and rate cuts later this year. Only 51% are expecting a recession. That’s down from 60% in recent surveys, but normal projections for a recession are more like 20%. (2)   Jobless claims dipped again, despite recent layoff announcements. The government says there were 186,000 weekly unemployment applications which is down from 195,000 for the previous week. Ongoing claims were also down about 11,000 to a total of 1.66 million. According to MarketWatch, there has been a gradual increase of continuing claims since last spring which suggests that it’s taking longer for people to find new jobs, but the job market remains tight. (3)   The latest report on job creation shows that companies added 517,000 new jobs to the market in January while the unemployment rate went from 3.5% to 3.4%. That’s the lowest it’s been since 1969, and reflects the strength of the job market. Economist Sal Guatieri from BMO Capital Markets says of the report: “It raises serious doubts about the economy slipping into recession and the Fed ending its tightening cycle this spring.” (4)   Home price growth has slowed for a fifth month in a row. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national index shows that it fell a seasonally adjusted .6% in November to an annual rate of 9.2%. The 20-city index was down .5% to an annual rate of 8.6%. Of those 20 cities, Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta topped the list for largest year-over-year gains, although prices are also lower in these cities. The only city with a decline in home price growth was Detroit but only by .1%. (5)   The amount of money spent on construction was down in December. The Commerce Department says it fell a seasonally adjusted .4% to $1.81 trillion. Wall Street economists had expected a flat reading. Single-family construction was down 2.3%. (6)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates dropped a bit closer to the 5% range. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 4 basis points to 6.09% while the 15-year fell three points, to 5.14%. According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year rate has already dipped below that 6% threshold to 5.99%. The big dip came right after Fed Chief Powell softened his language about inflation after last week’s meeting and rate hike. Freddie says the lower rates will make it possible for as many as three million more people to qualify for a loan. (7) (8)   In other news making headlines…   Elon Musk Partners with Lennar in Texas   Elon Musk is expanding his footprint in Texas with a community of about 100 workforce homes. He’s teaming up with Lennar to build the homes in the Pflugerville area, north of Austin, where the Boring Company is headquartered.   The development is being affectionately called “Project Amazing” with some Musk-inspired street names that include: Boring Bulevard, Cutterhead Xing, Porpoise Place and Waterjet Way. (9)   Real Estate Industry Embraces ChatGPT   Real estate agents are embracing the artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT. Business Insider says realtors are using it for emails, property listings, social media posts, and newsletters.   According to Iowa real estate agent JJ Johannes: “It’s not perfect but it’s a great starting point.” He says the chatbot uses all the lingo you’d expect to see in a listing like “open floor plan” and “recently updated.” You can also add to the listing after it’s written if you think that details were left out.   Miami broker Andres Asion offered another example, he was unsuccessful at getting a developer to correct a problem with some windows until he asked ChatGPT to write the email as a legal issue. He says the developer showed up at the owner’s home shortly after that email was sent.   The artificial intelligence chatbot was introduced to the public just a few months ago. It is currently free to use, but some people are saying they’d gladly pay 100 to $200 a month for access.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com, and join RealWealth for more information about real estate investing. It’s free to join and get access to all our data including our virtual live event on February 11th. It’s called “Why You Should Invest in Real Estate in 2023” and features 11 property teams and 1 commercial broker. Once you sign up as a member, it takes about two seconds to register for the event at our website.   And don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast if you haven’t already, and leave us a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed-rate-decision-february-2023-quarter-point-hike.html   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/why-the-case-is-growing-for-a-fed-rate-cut-before-year-end.html   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-drop-to-nine-month-low-of-183-000-11675345085?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-adds-517-000-new-jobs-in-january-in-sign-labor-market-still-strong-11675431419?mod=home-page   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-prices-fall-for-5th-straight-month-in-november-case-shiller-index-shows-11675174667?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-construction-spending-falls-in-december-11675264823?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/mortgage-rates-five-percent-range-first-time-september.html   9 - https://therealdeal.com/texas/2023/01/30/elon-musk-lennar-plan-workforce-housing-near-boring-co/   10 - https://www.businessinsider.com/realtors-using-ai-chatgpt-to-write-property-listings-emails-2023-1

The Biden Administration launched a broad-based effort by federal agencies to “improve the quality of life for renters.” The announcement comes at a time when 40% of renters are struggling to keep up with their rent payments, but raises questions about how to make housing affordable in a way that is fair for both renters and landlords. (1)   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   U.S. Rent Growth   Rents have been soaring across the country, as housing demand continues to outpace supply, but it has also been slowing down as the Federal Reserve works to slow inflation with rate hikes. According to Zillow, typical U.S. asking rents are $1,981, which represents a yearly growth rate of 7.4%. That’s down from a peak of 17.1% last February. (2)   Rents and rent growth vary wildly from market to market. In Miami, year-over-year rent growth is 11.7% while Las Vegas is showing a negative .9% increase. A few other examples include Cincinnati with a rent growth rate of 10.2% and Indianapolis, at 9.6%.   Federal Renter Protection Effort   Getting back to the renter protection announcement, let’s look at some of the top calls to action:   1 - The Federal Trade Commission or FTC and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will be investigating ways that tenants are being unfairly prevented from getting into housing or removed from housing they already have. Some of the practices they will be investigating include the use of background checks, tenant screening algorithms, adverse action notices for rejecting applicants, and information on an applicant’s source of income.    2 - Those two agencies will also issue guidance for the credit reporting process, and coordinate enforcement efforts to ensure the accuracy of the information. They will also hold background check companies accountable if they engage in unfair procedures.   3 - The Federal Housing Finance Agency or FHFA will be involved with renter protections that include limits on excessive rent increases. The agency describes it as a public process that prioritizes transparency with updates, including one within the first six months. The FHFA will also encourage affordability for the multifamily market with affordability requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans.   4 - The Department of Justice is expected to issue guidance on the prevention of anti-competitive information sharing in the rental market.   5 - The Department of Housing and Urban Development or HUD will work on new rules that require at least 30 days notice before a lease is terminated for a public housing tenant who stopped paying rent.   6 - The Biden Administration plans to hold quarterly meetings with tenants and tenant advocates to make sure their voices are heard.   Blueprint for Renters Bill of Rights   All this is part of the so-called “Blueprint for a Renters Bill of Rights. The guiding principles include:   1 - Safe, Quality, Accessible, and Affordable Housing 2 - Clear and Fair Leases 3 - Education, Enforcement, and Enhancement of Renter Rights 4. - The Right to Organize   Housing Providers Involvement   Several housing provider groups are also participating in this effort.   The National Association of Realtors or NAR and its affiliate, The Institute of Real Estate Management, have made a commitment to promote resident-centered property management practices. That might include the use of alternative credit scores for applicants who don’t have much of a credit history or the sharing of information with an applicant about Housing Choice Vouchers or rental assistance programs.   The National Apartment Association and the National Multifamily Association have also made commitments to promote resident-centered management practices. That might include help for tenants who want to improve their credit scores by reporting positive rent payments to credit bureaus.   While those agencies are promising those contributions, they are also speaking out against rent control. As mentioned in a Bigger Pockets blog: “Numerous studies have found that the long-term effects of rent control hurt the people these policies intend to help.” (3)   Why Rent Control Fails   There are studies by the Brookings Institution and Stanford that show rent control may provide short-term relief for renters but decrease housing affordability over the long-term. That’s because landlords get out of the business, which reduces the amount of available housing, increases demand, and leads to higher rents.   The National Apartment Association says that rent control discourages the creation of affordable rental housing including new construction and rental housing renovations. The National Bureau of Economic Research says that rent control keeps smaller families from downsizing and opening up rental space for new larger households.   There are several detailed well-informed arguments against rent control, but at the heart of the issue is what is truly happening with rent inflation. Currently, rent growth is coming down. Yes, it is still growing year-over-year, and yes, a large chunk of the renter population is rent-burdened. That calls for a solution, but rent control is only a short-term solution. And it’s very difficult to get rid of it once it’s in place.    According to Bigger Pockets, the National Multifamily Housing Council would like to see direct subsidies to low-income renters and builders who create affordable housing. Many housing industry insiders also say that rental housing policy should be regulated at the state and local level.   Why Federal Rental Policy is a Bad Idea   In a CNN article, NAR’s Kenny Parcell warns of the negative impact of federal policies saying they can “potentially drive housing providers out of the market” and make housing more expensive over the long-term. He also says: “Expanding the federal government’s role in rental policy also places an even greater undue burden on mom-and-pop providers.” (4)   NAR said high rents are the result of a supply and demand imbalance, and that more affordable housing is needed to keep rents from rising like they have been. The NAA’s Bob Pinnegar says: ““For months the National Apartment Association worked with the White House in good faith.” He says: “We stand by our commitment to promote industry resident services and practices, (but we are opposed) to expanded federal involvement in the landlord and tenant relationship. Complex housing policy is a state and local issue and the best solutions utilize carrots over sticks.”   That’s it for today.   If you’d like to learn more about landlord tenant relationships and property management, you’ll find several articles at newsforinvestors.com under the Learning tab. While you are there, please click the Join for Free button for complete access to all our data.    Please remember to subscribe to our podcast, and follow me on instagram @kathyfettke for real estate market updates and commentary.   Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/25/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-protect-renters-and-promote-rental-affordability/   2 - https://www.zillow.com/research/december-2022-rental-report-31992/   3 - https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/biden-announces-renter-bill-of-rights?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Newsletter%20%7C%2001/29/23%20Control%20(Free)   4 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/25/homes/biden-tenant-protection-renters/index.html

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 28th, 2023... what’s happening with inflation, a new surge in foreclosures, and the affordability of renting versus buying.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. The latest report on the cost of goods and services shows that inflation is cooling off. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and it shows a tiny .1% increase for December. That reduces the annual rate from 5.5% to 5%. When you eliminate the cost of food and gas, the monthly increase was .3% with an annual rate that’s down from 4.7% to 4.4%. PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures. (1)   We also have a new report on the GDP. The government reports that the Gross Domestic Product grew at a solid 2.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. That’s after a reading of 3.2% in the third quarter, and two negative quarters in the beginning of 2022. Economists generally believe that we’ll see slower economic growth in 2023 due to the Fed’s rate hikes. The rate hikes are meant to slow the economy and help bring inflation back down to the 2% level. (2)   The National Association of Home Builders reported on the housing share of the GDP which is lower than normal due to the constrained housing market conditions. The NAHB explains the two housing market components that contribute to the GDP as the residential fixed investment or RFI which includes home building and remodeling. The second component covers housing services like rent, utilities, and the cost that owners would have to pay to rent their own homes. For the fourth quarter the RFI was 4% of the economy while housing services accounted for 11.9%. That’s a total of 15.9% of the GDP. Historically, the total is 17 or 18% of the GDP with an average of 5% for the RFI and 12 to 13% for housing services. (3)   Weekly jobless claims are down again, to their lowest level since April. Weekly initial claims dropped another 6,000 to a total of 186,000. Ongoing claims were up 20,000 to a total of 1.68 million. Several companies have announced layoffs but that hasn’t had an obvious impact yet on jobless claims. (4)   New home sales were slightly higher in December. The Commerce Department says they were up 2.3% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 616,000. Year-over-year, they are down 26.6%. That hit a peak of 1.04 million in August of 2020. (5)    Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates were down a little more last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was down 2 basis points to 6.13%. 15 year loans were down 11 points to 5.17%. (6)   In other news making headlines...   Foreclosure Rate Doubles   Foreclosure rates are rising once again, but have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. ATTOM Data says they more than doubled in 2022 compared to 2021, with a 115% increase. In 2022, there were foreclosure filings on .23% of all housing units. In 2021, foreclosure filings accounted for just .11% Back in 2019, before the pandemic, they accounted for .36% of all properties. (7)   ATTOM’s Rick Sharga says: “Government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures.”   States with the highest number of foreclosure starts last year include California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. Foreclosures hit a peak at the height of the housing crisis in 2009 and 2010. Back then, almost 2-and-a-quarter percent of all homes went into foreclosure.   Renting Now Cheaper than Owning in Most Areas   Research from ATTOM Data also shows that renting is now more affordable than owning in 95% of the places where most people live. That’s a complete reversal from last year when it was more affordable to own your own home in 60% of the markets that were analyzed. (8)   Rick Sharga commented on the change in affordability saying “What a difference a year makes.” The study was based on the average three-bedroom rent compared to owning a similar sized home.   The only place where it was more affordable to buy than to rent was in Cook County near Chicago. Homeowners in that area typically pay 40% of their paycheck for housing while renters pay 38%.   If you’d like to learn more about investing in today’s rental housing market, check out our virtual live event on February 11th. It’s an all-day event featuring ten property teams in 11 markets and one commercial broker. You can find out more by joining RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com and registering for the event. If you miss it, we will have some of the sessions available on the RealWealth website for a replay. But if you want to see all of it, you’ll need to attend.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-rate-slows-again-to-15-month-low-pce-shows-11674826498?mod=economy-politics   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-nasdaq-set-to-lead-after-tesla-results-impress/card/u-s-gdp-grew-faster-than-expected-in-final-quarter-of-2023-but-don-t-expect-a-repeat-SXstKUC8fTFH4HHAkr3h   3 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/housing-share-of-gdp-lower-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022/   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-since-april-11674740614?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-since-april-11674740614?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/   8 - https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/where-most-people-live-renting-is-now-more-affordable-than-owning

It’s a worst-case scenario for homeowners in a suburb of Scottsdale, Arizona. Due to drought conditions in the Southwest, the water supply for Rio Verde Foothills has been shut off. Residents have been left scrambling for water. They have filed a lawsuit, but the bigger question is whether the building boom can continue in Arizona. Land has been inexpensive in Arizona but without enough water, is land really that cheap?   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Scottsdale supplied Rio Verde Foothills with water for decades, since it sprouted into existence in the 1970’s. It’s an unincorporated part of Maricopa county with about 600 homes and about 1,000 residents. The water was trucked in, but with a decades-long drought and a shrinking supply of water from the Colorado River, Scottsdale says it needs to conserve water for its own residents and can no longer deliver water to Rio Verde.    It’s not just a wake-up call for the residents of Rio Verde, but for residents across Arizona and the western part of the U.S. where drought conditions are ongoing. In a Time article on the water crisis, the author poses the question: “In an era where climate change is shrinking the water supply, should the desert state (of Arizona) keep building homes that depend on water from elsewhere?”   It’s a question with significant repercussions at a time when the state is enthusiastically welcoming new residents and encouraging growth. Arizona’s population has skyrocketed over the last 50 years and is currently at about 7.35 million residents. Census Bureau data shows that Arizona’s population surged 1.3% from July 2021 to July of last year. That represents more than 94,000 people coming into the state and puts Arizona in fifth place for U.S. population growth. The only states with more growth were Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Texas. (2)   Census Data also shows that Maricopa county, where Phoenix, Scottsdale and Rio Verde are all located, is the eighth fastest growing county in the country. Time also reports that it isn’t just more and more people but water thirsty companies, like data centers, which are expanding into the area and impacting the precious water supply.    Some say that the water supply can no longer support the growth boom, and that’s a concept that developers and builders are wrestling with. Arizona’s governor, Katie Hobbs released a report that shows a huge water deficit in an area west of Phoenix in the White Tank Mountains where developers want to build. According to Time, these are homes that would house about 800,000 people. But Arizona is now reporting to the local media that developers will have to find their own water supplies or some other solution, before they can build.   Since the state’s supply of water from the Colorado River is already spoken for, they won’t be getting it from there. If they can’t get enough from the ground, they may have to truck it in, which didn’t work very well for the residents in Rio Verde. Other ideas have included a pipeline from some distant water saturated area, or from a desalination plant that’s yet to be built in Mexico’s Sea of Cortez.   With drought and climate change issues intensifying, these kinds of ideas are coming to the forefront. Developers see the water pipeline idea as a way to create a stable source of water that will sustain growth for years to come. And maybe that’s what the Southwest real estate industry needs. But Time reports there’s also the unmentionable idea that growth cannot continue as it has been, and the pipeline/desalinization idea is  the only inevitable solution. It comes with several drawbacks however.   First, the process involves wastewater that would probably be dumped back into the Sea of Cortez and potentially harm sea life. The pipeline would also cut through Organ Pipe National Monument in Arizona, and across land in Mexican territory, which might not sit well with various groups of people. Desalination is also very energy intensive and could generate a lot of greenhouse gas emissions.   Cary Meiser of the Yuma Audubon Society says: “We as Arizonans can’t just keep taking water from somewhere else without considering how it impacts the people and places we’re taking it from.”   On top of those drawbacks, the desalination isn’t cheap and is sure to increase the cost of water for customers. Time reports that cities and states typically pay about $50 to $150 for one acre-foot of water, which is about what a family of three in Phoenix would use in a year. The cost of desalination would add about two- to three-thousand dollars onto that price for the same quantity of water.   If water gets that expensive, it’s sure to impact Arizona’s real estate industry. Properties with a secure source of water will suddenly be more valuable, while others lose value. Banks may also be more willing to make loans to properties with stable, less expensive water.    Currently, the Colorado River supplies water to about 40 million people in seven states and Mexico including Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming. The wet winter has raised some amount of hope for a snow melt in the Rockies that will replenish the Colorado River, but as NPR reports, the winter is far from over, and conditions could change. (3)   For people in Rio Verde, there are back-up sources that are being used to truck in some amount of water. But transporting the water involves longer distances, and therefore more expense. The New York Times says that water bills have jumped from around $220 a month to $660 a month and it’s unclear how long this back-up arrangement may last. (4)   Some people have resorted to hauling their own water. They put the water into large containers in the back of their pick-up trucks. It consumes an additional 10 hours a week just to get water. The Times reports that experts don’t think Arizona will suffer big water cuts in the near future, but Governor Hobbs is promising to upgrade current groundwater rules. The update would reportedly address a long-standing rule that allows developers to build five or fewer homes without proof of a 100-year water supply. The Rio Verde developers apparently skirted the rule by dividing the project into groups of five homes or less.   Many people are drawn to Arizona because of inexpensive land prices and the beauty of the desert, but University of Arizona professor of human and environmental geography, Margaret Wilder, hopes the people of Arizona will realize the risks of unregulated expansion. She told Time: “I’m not an advocate of pulling up the bridge behind us, but we need to slow this train down.”   As for the Rio Verde lawsuit against the City of Scottsdale, an Arizona superior court judge denied a temporary stay. The court commented that “the court cannot and should not make water police decisions in lieu of the appropriate authorities.” The lawsuit will continue from there with additional arguments. (5)   If you’d like to learn more about the process of buying real estate in markets that make sense, with a good water supply, check out the Learning Center at our RealWealth website. You can join for free at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to subscribe to our podcast, and follow me on instagram @kathyfettke for real estate market updates and commentary.   Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://time.com/6248517/arizona-growing-population-drought-housing/   2 - https://www.abc15.com/news/business/census-finds-arizona-to-be-a-top-5-state-for-in-migration   3 - https://www.npr.org/2023/01/22/1150197343/why-heavy-winter-rain-and-snow-wont-be-enough-to-pull-the-west-out-of-a-megadrou   4 - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/us/arizona-water-rio-verde-scottsdale.html 5 - https://www.azfamily.com/2023/01/23/judge-sides-with-city-scottsdale-lawsuit-rio-verde-foothills-water-loss/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 21st, 2023... why mortgage rates are looking more attractive, the new office space investing opportunity, and a new home design trend called “Barkitecture” that makes pets a priority.    Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week and more evidence that prices are coming back down to earth. The government reports that wholesale prices were .5% lower in December. It was the biggest drop in the Producer Price Index since April of 2020 when the economy shut down because of Covid. The monthly decline brings the annual rate of wholesale price inflation down from 7.2% to 6.2%. (1)   The Federal Reserve will be analyzing the latest reports on inflation ahead of a rate hike decision on February 1st. The Federal Funds rate is currently within the range of 4.25 and 4.50%. Now that inflation is receding, several Fed officials have spoken out, saying they are still determined to “stay the course” but are considering a smaller quarter-point rate hike. They will also have access to the latest report on the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, or PCE, right before that meeting, which could help sway their opinion. The PCE is their preferred inflation gauge because it goes beyond household expenses and accounts for changes in consumer behavior as prices rise. (2)   Although several big tech companies are announcing layoffs, jobless claims remain low. The Labor Department reports just 190,000 initial applications for unemployment last week. That’s down from 205,000 the week before. (3) It indicates that the job market is still strong, but then newly announced layoffs won’t be reflected in the unemployment numbers just yet. Among the companies announcing a substantial number of layoffs  are Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Carvana, Coinbase, Lyft, Facebook parent Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, Salesforce, Snapchat parent Snap, payment processor Stripe, Twitter and Wayfair. (4)   In the latest housing market news, housing starts were a mixed bag for residential construction. The Commerce Department reports that, overall, housing starts fell a seasonally adjusted 1.4% to 1.38 million. That includes an 18.9% decline in multi-family starts and an 11.3% increase in single-family starts. The Northeast has the biggest surge in single-family starts at 96.9%! When it comes to permits, they were down 6.5% for single-family homes and up 7.1% for multi-families. (5)   Builders are feeling more confident about the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders says the monthly builder confidence index was up four points in January to 35. That’s far lower than it was a year ago, at 83, but the NAHB says that builders are seeing a “light at the end of the tunnel” as mortgage rates recede and demand increases. NAHB chairman, Jerry Konter says: “The rise in builder sentiment means that cycle lows for permits and starts are likely near, and a rebound for home building could be underway later in 2023.” (6)   Existing home sales continue on a downward trend. The National Association of Realtors reports a 1.5% drop to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million homes in December. It’s the 11th month of declining sales and the lowest level of sales activity since November of 2010. Year-over-year, existing home sales are down 34%. High home prices and mortgage rates have scared a lot of buyers away, but there’s also a huge lack of inventory, in part, because potential buyers are postponing their plans to sell. (7)    Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates are declining and getting closer to the 6% level. In the last week, Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 18 basis points to 6.15%. The 15-year was down 24 points to 5.28%. Freddie says: “Declining rates are providing a much-needed boost to the housing market, but the supply of homes remains a persistent concern.” (8)   Some builders are also providing a bigger incentive with mortgage rates as low as 3%. They prefer to pay points to lower a customer’s mortgage rate than lower the price of the home, because that could impact the value of other homes that are already sold. (9)   In other news making headlines…   Bargain Hunters Buying Office Space   Office space is on sale right now, and some brave investors are pouncing on the opportunity. Bisnow reports that investors are getting creative about what they’ll do with this office space. While some believe the office market will return, others are buying up high-quality properties at firesale prices with plans to convert them into something else.  like apartments or condos or something other than office space. (10)   Tom Davenport of Colliers says: “There are a lot of small investment funds that have been waiting for this day.”   New Home Design Trend: “Barkitecture”   Pets are becoming a top priority when it comes to home design. Realtor.com reports on a new architectural trend called “Barkitecture” that includes pet-friendly features like a securely fenced yard with a dog run or something called a “catio.” Other popular features include a dog wash station in the mudroom, built-in food and watering stations, a pet playroom or “lounge,” and custom-made furniture to accommodate both humans and pets. (11)   Realtor.com did a survey in 2020 on the importance of pet features in homes. 43% of the participants said they’d be willing to move for a home that was more accommodating to their pets.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links and remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also become a member of RealWealth at newsforinvestors.com. Membership is free and gives you additional access to our own real estate investing data. There’s no obligation and never any pressure. We are happy to answer questions and help you invest, if and when you are ready!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-prices-drop-at-end-of-2022-in-another-sign-of-slowing-inflation-11674049079?mod=economic-report   2 - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/business/economy/fed-rates-williams.html   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-to-four-month-low-of-190-000-11674135327?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tech-layoffs-sector-google-recession-2022-01-20/   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-fell-in-2022-as-the-nation-builds-fewer-homes-11674136334?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-builder-confidence-bounces-back-breaking-a-12-month-losing-streak-11674054281?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-eleventh-straight-month-in-december-11674227078?mod=economic-report   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-home-builders-are-offering-mortgage-rates-as-low-as-3-heres-how-and-why-theyre-doing-it-11674145343?mod=ANLink   10 - https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/capital-markets/office-buyers-contrarian-investing-117231   11 -  ​​https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/home-and-design/barkitecture-makes-your-pets-the-king-of-the-castle

The Fed’s relentless effort to stomp out inflation is having a huge impact on one of the nation’s biggest builders. KB Homes reported a homebuyer cancellation rate of 68% in December. And the “housing market reset” isn’t over yet. Although the latest inflation reports show that inflation is subsiding, the cost of a home is still too high for many buyers.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Inflation is Slowly Decreasing   A report on the Consumer Price Index shows a decline of .1% in December with an annual rate of 6.5%. (1) It’s the lowest rate of inflation we’ve seen in more than a year, and a big drop from a peak of 9.1% last summer. Lower oil prices accounted for most of the latest decline.   When you remove prices for fuel and food, the monthly core rate of inflation was .3% with an annual rate of 5.7%. According to MarketWatch, there were few negatives in the CPI report, although the cost of housing is still rising. The report shows the annual cost of shelter at a 40-year high of 7.5%. And those high prices are scaring a lot of potential buyers.   Surge in Contract Cancellation Rates   For KB Home, the Q4 cancellation rate of 68% was almost double what it was in the third quarter. And much more than that compared to a year earlier when it was just 13%.   The last time the cancellation rate was anywhere near that level was at the beginning of the pandemic, but even then it was around 40%. A Fortune article says that, historically, the cancellation rate for builders has only gone as high as 47%. (2)   The data varies from builder to builder and metro to metro. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the Southwest and Texas experienced high cancellation rates of 45% and 39% respectively. Zonda’s chief economist Ali Wolf tweeted recently that the cancellation rate in Phoenix hit 70%.   Based on data from John Burns, the nationwide contract cancellation rate was 25.6% in October. That’s up from 7.9% in October of last year.    “Conditions Remain Challenging”   KB Home said in a statement: “Current conditions remain challenging. High mortgage rates and persistent inflation, together with an uncertain economy, have made homebuyers more cautious since the middle of last year.” That’s putting affordability out of reach for many people. Others may be hoping that home prices will go lower in the months to come.    For many buyers, it’s not a choice to cancel. They may have signed a contract and paid their deposit before the home was built, and then with construction delays, and a steady increase in mortgage rates, are finding out they no longer qualify for a loan.  Unfortunately, for some, that means the loss of an earnest money deposit, although a survey of 100 builders by John Burns indicates that most builders will return that deposit.   For buyers who don’t get their money back, there’s not much they can do about it. Florida attorney Craig Rothburd says: “Everything in these agreements is drafted in favor of the developer.” That includes a warning that they could lose their deposit if they back out.   Housing Market “Reset” Continues   The situation has left home builders with a lot of inventory, and a lot of strategizing to reduce that inventory. Many are helping buyers by offering mortgage rate buydowns instead of price cuts. KB Home says it is very cautious about price cuts because it doesn’t want to spook buyers who are already under contract. If they think there’s a cheaper option, it could lead to more cancellations.    The Federal Reserve sees the current housing market situation as a “reset” to bring demand in line with supply, along with lower home prices. Higher mortgage rates typically push home prices lower, which has started to happen, but home prices are still too high for many homebuyers. And lower-priced homes are in short supply.   A return to lower mortgage rates could help but with the current fight against inflation, they are expected to remain in the 6% range for this year. The increase has added about a $1,000 to a typical monthly mortgage payment. According to The National Association of Homebuilders, the monthly payment on a $450,000 new home rose from $1,925 at the beginning of 2022 to $2,923 for the same home by the end of the year. (4)    New Home Affordability Weakens   That has substantially reduced the number of households that can afford to buy a median-priced new home. NAHB drew a comparison. It says that a mortgage rate of 3.22% is affordable for 34% of U.S. households. When that rate goes up to 6.42%, which is about where it is now, just 22.3% of households can afford that home. And, when the mortgage rate goes above 7% like it did in October, only 20.3% of households earn enough to qualify for a loan. At that level, you’d need an income of almost $150,000.    Always keep in mind that reports like these are averaging the results for the nation as a whole. Sub-markets will vary, and many of them are still affordable. If you want to learn more about some of those more affordable markets, please visit newsforinvestors.com. You’ll find data on some of the strongest rental and growth markets across the nation. You’ll also have access to experienced brokers and property managers in those markets. It’s free to join and free to access all that information.   Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-softens-at-the-end-of-2022-and-clears-path-for-slower-fed-rate-hikes-11673530439?mod=newsviewer_click   2 - https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/fed-housing-market-reset-homebuilder-cancellation-rate-spike-kb-home/   3 - https://www.businessinsider.com/homebuyer-lose-cash-and-homes-as-mortgage-rates-soar-2022-12   4 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/how-many-households-are-priced-out-by-higher-mortgage-rates-in-2022/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 14th, 2023… the good news about inflation, a few new potentially hot real estate markets, and the recent surge in U.S. population growth.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and good news about inflation. For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, consumer prices were down. The Labor Department reports that the Consumer Price Index fell .1% in December. The decline brings the annual rate of inflation down from 7.1% to 6.5%. It was up as high as 9.1% last summer. The core rate of inflation is considered a more accurate gauge of inflation because it eliminates food and gas prices which can be volatile. That rate was down .3% to a core rate of 5.7%. (1)   The December reading is proof that inflation is subsiding, and is giving economists hope that the Federal Reserve will back off on the rate hike gas pedal. Senior economist Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research says: “It’s time for the Fed to declare victory and stop the rate hikes!”   But in general, economists don’t think that will happen. Instead, they are predicting the Fed will go easy on the rate hikes with a quarter point hike at their meeting on February 1st, and possibly another quarter point hike in March. That would bring the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. What happens next might be too far off to predict, but economists at the CME Group are forecasting a pause followed by a half point rate cut later this year. (2)   The job market continues to show strength. New claims for unemployment benefits were down last week to 205,000. That’s a 1,000 claim drop from the week before. Wall Street economists had expected a 10,000 claim increase. There were also 63,000 fewer continuing claims for a total of 1.63 million people collecting unemployment benefits. (3)   Consumers are feeling much more confident about the economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped from 59.7 to 64.6 in December. That’s still far from a peak of 88.3 in April of 2021, but it’s a big improvement over recent levels. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates swung lower last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was down 15 basis points to 6.33%. The 15-year was down 21 points to 5.52%. (5) And they could be heading lower. Economist Nadia Evangelou of the National Association of Realtors believes the 30-year will dip below 6% in the near future, and will likely stabilize in the 5% range for the rest of the year. (6)   In other news making headlines…   Rent Growth Is Slowing Down   Renters are expected to gain some bargaining power in 2023 as rent growth slows, and the vacancy rate rises. According to ApartmentList, the national median rent growth was 3.8% last year, and it’s  expected to slow further this year. The report shows that 90 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw an end-of-the-year decline for apartment rents with a vacancy rate of 5.9%. (7)   But not all markets are created equal. The Sun Belt markets have experienced phenomenal growth over the past few years. According to some analysts, they may have hit a growth peak, with cities like Tampa and Tucson gaining almost 40% in rent growth. Although demand is still driving those markets, Apartment List expects more affordable cities in the Midwest to attract attention this year. It says that during the last six months, the top three cities for growth were the Midwestern cities of Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Oklahoma City.   North Texas Popularity   Universal Studios is also recognizing North Texas as a strong growth market, with the announcement of a new theme park. It plans on building a 97-acre theme park in Frisco, Texas, where the population has almost doubled from 117,000 in 2010 to more than 200,000 in 2020. Frisco Mayor Jeff Cheney said in a statement: “Frisco is one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. and has been recognized as a great place to plant professional roots and raise a family.” (8)   Frisco is part of an area north of Dallas that is attracting technology companies, including several large chip-making facilities. That’s creating tens of thousands of jobs, and a strong demand for housing. This is why we started our Texas Single Family Rental Fund – to help investors capitalize on the growth in this area. If you want to find out more about that, go to GrowDevelopments.com.   Post-Pandemic Baby Boom   U.S. population growth rebounded during the last two years. According to Census Bureau data, it hit an historically low birth rate of .16% between 2020 and 2021. And then it went into overdrive, and jumped to .38% from 2021 to 2022. That growth spurt added about 1.25 million people to the population roster for a total of 333 million.    Florida was the fastest growing state with a growth rate of 1.91%. It also had the second largest numerical increase of 416,000. Texas was first on that list with about 470,000 more people. Both Texas and California have the largest populations in the nation with more than 30 million people each.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com to learn more about how you can build generational wealth with real estate.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.     Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-softens-at-the-end-of-2022-and-clears-path-for-slower-fed-rate-hikes-11673530439?mod=economic-report   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/time-for-the-fed-to-declare-victory-on-inflation-not-yet.html   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-show-no-spike-in-layoffs-11673531088?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-sentiment-jumps-to-nine-month-high-as-high-inflation-ebbs-11673622868?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/economist-mortgage-rates-will-dip-below-6-soon   7 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/multifamily/rental-rates-cooling-in-2023-the-midwest-surprises-117053   8 - https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/commercial-real-estate/a-universal-studios-theme-park-is-headed-for-north-texas-117148   9 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/u-s-population-growth-rate-rebounds-in-2022/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 7th, 2023... home loan rates are hitting home prices, rent growth slows on apartments and single-family rentals, and lumber prices have returned to pre-pandemic levels.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve officials are seeing a long-term need for higher interest rates, according to the minutes of their last meeting. They raised the short-term rate by a half point at that meeting to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. That’s after four three-quarter point rate hikes during past meetings. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari sees the federal funds rate going as high as 5.4%, or higher if inflation doesn’t settle back down. Their preferred inflation gauge showed a core rate of 4.7% in November, which is well above their target rate of 2%. (1)   At this point, the economy remains strong with a Q4 GDP of 3.9% and a job market that is running hotter than the Fed would like to see. Last week, unemployment applications fell to a 3-½ month low of 204,000. As reported by MarketWatch, jobless claims were down in 30 of the 53 states and U.S. territories. Continuing claims were also lower by 24,000 to a total of 1.69 million. This kind of data shows that the economy continues to grow as the Fed raises rates to slow the economy and tamp down inflation. (2)   The latest report on job growth shows that U.S. companies added 223,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate dipped from 3.6% to 3.5%. That’s more proof of economic growth, but the report also shows that wage growth is slowing down. As MarketWatch reports, hourly wage growth was only up .3% in December to an annual rate of 4.6%. That’s down from 4.8% last month. (3)   The latest report on job openings shows that they decreased slightly from October to November, to a total of 10.5 million. It also shows that workers are quitting in high numbers. Both are signs of a strong job market. (4)   We have a bit of housing market news. The National Association of Home Builders released its construction spending report for November which shows a .2% increase. That’s higher than a forecast by Wall Street analysts who expected a .4% drop. Private residential construction was down half a point while private non-residential spending was up almost two points. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage applications were down last week, as rates moved higher. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 6 basis points to 6.48%. The 15-year was up 5 points to 5.73%. (6)   It’s been a roller coaster ride for mortgage rates. Rates were subsiding at the beginning of December, but they surged again during the second half of the month. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage application volume was down 13.2% during the last two weeks of the year. For refinancing loans, there was a bigger drop of 16.3%. (7)   In other news making headlines...   High Loan Rates Hit Home Prices   Higher mortgage rates are taking a bite out of home price growth. According to CoreLogic data, annual home price growth dropped below 10% for the first time in almost two years. It was down 8.6% and is now 2.5% lower than it was last spring and falling. Analysts expect to see “negative” home price growth sometime this spring, before it bounces back into the 2 to 3% range, next fall. (8)   The Sun Belt states are showing the highest home price growth, with Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia leading that list. Washington, D.C. is at the bottom, with a current year-over-year reading of 1.2%.   Rent Growth Declines Faster than Normal   Rent growth is also slowing down. Apartment List’s National Rent Report shows that apartment rent growth was down in December, for a fourth month in a row to an annual rate of 3.8%. That’s a far cry from the 17.6% rate of growth in 2021. (9)   Single-family rent growth is showing more strength. According to data from CoreLogic, single-family rents are still growing at an annual rate of 8.8%. That’s the lowest rate of appreciation we’ve seen in more than a year, but it’s also about three times higher than it was before the pandemic.   Lumber Prices Come Back to Earth   Lumber prices have finally come back down to earth. According to industry experts, they are now around $375 for 1,000 board feet of framing lumber. That’s cheaper than pre-pandemic levels of around $400, and much less than a pandemic peak of $1,733. (10)   Lumber prices are usually the highest in April and May so some of the price drop is due to the season. But the experts are not expecting to see another huge run-up in prices next Spring.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can find out more about real estate investing as a member of RealWealth. It’s free to join at newsforinvestors.com.    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/fed-minutes-december-2022-.html   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-to-3-1-2-month-low-of-204-000-in-sign-labor-market-still-too-hot-for-the-fed-11672926160?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-adds-223-000-jobs-in-december-and-jobless-rate-matches-55-year-low-of-3-5-11673012538?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-stay-high-at-10-5-million-and-show-labor-market-still-very-strong-11672845265?mod=mw_latestnews   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-rises-by-0-2-in-november-11672758912?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/mortgage-demand-plunges-interest-rates-rise.html   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/home-price-gains-weaken-november.html   9 -  https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/rents-continue-to-decline-more-than   10 - https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/update-framing-lumber-prices-down-67.html

The commercial real estate market is in for a rough ride this year. Many mortgages become due in 2023, and refinancing could be impossible for some property owners because of high interest rates. That situation is expected to shake things up a bit, and lead to more defaults, subleasing, and vacancies. As a MarketWatch headline suggests: “The party is over in commercial real estate.” (1)   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Lenders say there’s an estimated $450 billion worth of commercial real estate loans coming due within the next four years. Property owners will be forced to refinance at much higher interest rates, for properties that may have also lost value. It’s a double whammy that could result in property sales and/or bankruptcies.   Higher Rates & Lower Valuations   And that’s not including a decline in lease renewals, which is already happening. You may have seen headlines about some of the big tech companies cutting down on their square footage – companies like Amazon, Meta, and Salesforce.   According to Western Asset Management’s Greg Handler: “You had all these large tech companies signing big new leases, which was getting the market comfortable with the idea that the office sector was going to recover over the long term.” But with many companies retreating, Handler says there are big questions as to “who is going to pick up the extra square feet, and at what price.”   As MarketWatch reports: “Landlords tend to default when debt comes due and financing dries up, a situation that can be exacerbated when a property’s cash flows or valuation falls.” Bank of America’s Alan Todd says of the situation: “If you’re in a property where valuations are lower (and) your rate is significantly higher, how are you doing to refinance successfully?”   CRE Price Growth Slows, but Positive   Commercial property prices haven't dropped significantly yet. One index mentioned in the MarketWatch article says they are still up 7.3% for the year, and 123.5% from 10 years ago. But Todd at BofA thinks they could be headed lower by as much as 20 to 30%. He says: “You’re talking about a secular, not cyclical, change for certain property types, whether those are regional malls or some of the lower quality offices. Some of those could be fairly problematic.”   Steve Madura of Illinois’ Hilco Real Estate offered a much bleaker forecast for commercial real estate in a Bisnow article. His company specializes in distressed assets, and he says the need for companies to repay or refinance mortgages will lead to a so-called “reckoning” that will (quote) “dwarf the 2008 financial collapse.” (2)   Madura is calling the mix of high interest rates and a frozen capital market a “distress bubble.” He says distress is happening sooner than expected, and the impact could ripple through the market. As more and more borrowers face the need for refinancing, we may see more of them heading for the exit.    Distress Creates Investing Opportunities   Of course, that kind of distress creates investing opportunities, but Madura sees it as potentially too much of a good thing. He says: “There are huge rows of office buildings in Chicago with 50% vacancy rates. Do you want to convert that many office buildings to residential? That only goes so far.”   That doesn’t mean commercial investors should ignore office space. Real estate strategist Andy Graiser says that some investors believe they should wait for a better deal later this year, but he says it might be wise to grab a deal now if it’s a good property, and the numbers make sense.  He says: “The demand is out there.”    Oxford Economics expects somewhat of a downturn. Its research shows a (negative) -2.2% total return for commercial real estate in 2023. In 2022, that figure was a (positive) 4.2%. The retail and hotel sectors are expected to be the only ones that will end the year with a positive total of 1.8% and 1.2% respectively. A decline of 5% is expected for residential property. (3)   Reshuffling of Real Estate Fortunes   Although real estate experts anticipate another difficult year for commercial properties, they are also seeing the beginning of a reshuffling of real estate fortunes. Bei Capital founder Collin Lau told Bisnow that he expects interest rates to peak, plateau, or potentially decline in the first quarter.  He says: “As interest rates start to normalize, that will bring investors back to the market.” The Bisnow article goes into more depth on the topic. You can reference that article and the others mentioned int this podcast in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. Our plan at Real Wealth is to wait until commercial property values find their floor, as we believe values are still uncertain and in some cases, a free fall. We expect to be more active in underwriting commercial property sometime in mid to late 2023. Meantime, we are focused on acquiring single-family homes in both cash flow and growth markets. With interest rates up, fewer people can afford to buy a home but still want to live in one. The demand for renters is strong, yet competition among buyers is low. Sellers are discounting prices and even paying points to buy down the rates, increasing cash flows. This is also why we are focused on building our single-family rental fund, that has an 8% target return with very conservative underwriting. You can find out more at GrowDevelopments.com.  And if you want to build your rental portfolio, visit newsforinvestors.com where you will get data on the strongest rental and growth markets nationwide, along with referrals to experienced brokers and property managers in those markets that come highly recommended by RealWealth's over 66,000 members.    Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-party-is-over-in-commercial-real-estate-heres-what-to-expect-in-2023-11671711842   2 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/top-talent/distressed-asset-specialists-see-deals-in-reckoning-that-dwarfs-08-collapse-116944?utm_source=outbound_pub_58&utm_campaign=outbound_issue_63533&utm_content=link&utm_medium=email   3 - https://www.bisnow.com/london/news/capital-markets/youre-probably-going-to-lose-money-in-2023-but-theres-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-116993

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 31, 2022... we say goodbye to a difficult year for real estate and hello to a new year that’s filled with opportunity. You’ll also hear about changes to retirement account rules, what happened to builder confidence in 2022, and what one institutional investor thinks of single-family rentals.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week that includes significant changes to how taxpayers save for retirement. The changes are part of the SECURE ACT 2.0 which was written into the $1.7 trillion federal spending plan just approved by Congress and President Joe Biden. Some of the more than 90 changes will take effect right away, while others will be implemented in later years.   One of the biggest changes is an increase in the age that triggers mandatory minimum distributions, or RMDs, from tax-deferred accounts. Starting January 1st of this year, the age rises from 72 years old to 73 years old. It rises again in 2033 to 75 years old. The new rules also reduce the penalty for failing to take the required RMDs from 50% to 25% or 10% if the situation is corrected in a “timely manner.” Those changes are effective immediately.   There are also changes to early withdrawal rules that will go into effect next year. They currently allow 401k withdrawals before the age of 59-and-a-half for an “immediate and heavy” financial need, but there’s a 10% tax penalty along with income tax on withdrawals. Under the new rules, taxpayers can withdraw up to $1,000 a year and self-certify that it’s for a personal or family emergency. Plus, there will be no penalty for the early withdrawal.   Under the new rules, employers will be required to automatically enroll employees in 401k or 403b plans. That will take effect in 2025. There are also changes to the amount that workers are allowed to contribute which take effect immediately. Contributions will start with a minimum of 3% to a maximum of 10%. From there, they will rise 1% each year until they reach a range of 10% to 15%. This is supposed to help people save more for retirement.   There are many other changes. You’ll find a link in the show notes to a nasdaq.com article that covers the more significant ones. (1)   Back to economic news and the latest unemployment report. Initial claims were 9,000 applications higher last week to a level of 225,000. Continuing claims were up 41,000 to 1.71 million. That’s the highest level since last February and shows signs of a cooler job market, but the data is not an indication of major layoffs. Economists do expect the job market to soften more if the Fed continues to increase short-term interest rates. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in November. The Fed is expecting it to rise to 4.6% over the course of this year. (2)   Pending home sales are down again. The National Association of Realtors say they fell 4% in November to their lowest level since April of 2020. The year-over-year rate shows a decline of 37.8%. Potential sellers are putting off plans to list their homes, thanks to high prices for new homes and the high price of a mortgage. (3)   Those high prices are coming down a bit, however. The Case-Shiller national index shows that October home prices were down .3%. The 20-city index was down .5% with a year-over-year reading that dipped below 10%. That index is now at an annual home price growth rate of 8.6%. A different report on home prices from the Federal Housing Finance Agency shows that home prices were flat in October. The agency reports an annual increase of 9.8%. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Although mortgage rates have been coming down, Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 15 basis points last week to an average rate of 6.42%. The average 15-year is currently at 5.68%. (5)   In other news making headlines…   2022 Decline in Builder Confidence   The National Association of Home Builders is highlighting stories that have attracted the most reader attention, and one of them is the housing market turning point that happened in April of last year. That’s when the NAHB’s Housing Market Index confirmed that higher home prices, construction costs and interest rates were making homes less affordable and builders less confident about selling them. (6)   This NAHB’s monthly confidence level ended the year with a reading of just 31 in December. That’s down from 84 in December of 2021. Anything below 50 is considered negative. The current reading is the lowest it’s been since the middle of 2012. There is some upside to this story. Builders say that lower mortgage rates and slower price growth is luring buyers back to the market.   Investors Prep for 2023 SFR Demand   The single-family rental space is attracting another big player. Global commercial real estate firm Newmark is formalizing its Single Family Rental group. The press release says that the group will focus on investment sales, joint-venture equity placement and finance.   Newmark’s Jeff Day says of the plan: “With Newmark’s significant presence in the multifamily and alternative real estate sectors, and a growing institutional interest in the SFR space, formalizing this practice was a logical next step.” Newman says its SFR group has already participated in transactions worth more than $15 billion. The press release commented about strong demand among renters for detached homes and an expectation that that will continue in the coming years.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can find out about the mom-and-pop version of single-family rental investing at our RealWealth website. You can sign up for free at newsforinvestors.com, and have access to our educational materials, our data, our experienced investment counselors, and our curated list of real estate professionals.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/these-are-the-biggest-changes-to-retirement-plans-under-secure-act-2.0   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-move-higher-in-latest-week-11672321106?mod=economic-report   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-pending-home-sales-fall-4-in-november-to-the-lowest-level-since-april-2020-11672239997?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-price-growth-falls-in-october-as-market-feels-effect-of-high-mortgage-rates-11672149882?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2022/12/top-posts-of-2022-housing-market-at-inflection-point-as-builder-confidence-continues-to-fall/   7 - https://www.nmrk.com/insights/press-releases/newmark-introduces-national-single-family-rental-group

California is eliminating a substantial subsidy for people who add solar panels to their homes and businesses. The new policy will reduce the amount of money that utilities are required to pay to homeowners who pump surplus electricity back into the grid. There’s now concern that the decision will hurt the solar industry in California, and potentially other states that may follow California’s lead. State regulators say the old policy is outdated, and the new one paves the way to the future.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   The five-member California Public Utilities Commission voted unanimously in favor of the proposal. They say it will promote grid reliability and distribute the cost of maintaining the grid more equitably, while incentivizing the use of rooftop solar with battery storage. CPUC Commissioner Clifford Rechtschaffen says: “The decision strikes the right balance between many competing priorities and advances our overarching goals of ensuring California meets its climate and clean energy goals equitable.” (1)   New Policy Reduces Solar Incentives   There are currently 1.5 million homes, businesses, and other utility customers with rooftop solar. They will see no changes under the updated policy. CPUC officials call it the modernized version of the Net Metering Energy solar tariff or NEM. The original Net Metering rules were adopted way back in 1995. But starting next April, the new policy will go into effect and reduce the amount that utilities pay solar customers for excess electricity by as much as 75%.   Commissioners say the lower rates reflect the true value of solar electricity which is produced during the day when electricity is cheaper. Electricity becomes more expensive in the evening when the sun isn’t shining and people come home and turn on their appliances. They say the cost of electricity in the evening can be 20 times what it is during the day, and puts tremendous strain on the grid.   Debate Over the Impact of the New Policy   The debate over the change to the solar cost structure has played out for a couple of years. Solar advocates say the new policy will discourage many people from installing solar because it will be that much more expensive. Woody Hastings at “The Climate Center” says: “California needs more solar power, not less.”    Executive Director of California Solar & Storage Association, Bernadette Del Chiaro, says: “For the solar industry, it will result in business closures and the loss of green jobs. For middle class and working class neighborhoods… it puts clean energy further out of reach.” (2)   Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie released a report earlier this year that says the changes will lead to a 50% reduction in California’s solar market by 2024. They could also impact California's transition to 100% renewable energy by 2045. (3)   On the other hand, the group Affordable Clean Energy for All, which is funded by California utilities, says that the current system is outdated, and that millions of non-solar customers are paying an unfair amount for grid maintenance. Advocates for low-income families who can’t afford solar also say it’s time that solar customers pay their fair share for their use of the grid.    State officials at the public advocate’s office put a positive spin on the new policy. They say it shows that California has succeeded in its goal to expand the use of solar power. Matt Baker says: “We have outgrown the subsidies for a solar-only system and now it’s time to pivot to solar plus storage.”    CPUC Encourages Solar Plus Battery Storage   The new policy encourages the installation of a battery to store extra power so grid energy isn’t needed when the sun goes down. That could help reduce the strain on the grid during peak hours, especially during hot summer afternoons and evenings when people turn up their air conditioners.   Battery storage will also allow solar customers with extra energy to pump solar power into the grid when rates are higher, increasing the value of the electricity they produce. The CPUC says there will be a big difference between peak and off-peak rates.    The policy also raises the maximum size allowed for a rooftop solar system to 150% of a customer’s energy use. With an oversized system, there would be more potential for excess energy production in the near term. Over the long term, a larger system will accommodate the expanded use of solar for electric vehicles and other appliances.   Customers with battery storage can also earn energy credits. Low-income families and disadvantaged communities that install solar with a storage system would qualify for an even larger share of those credits.   New Policy Energy Savings   The CPUC says the average residential solar customer will save about $100 a month under the new rules, and about $136 a month with a battery storage system. They say the savings will make it possible to pay off a new system in just 9 years or less.   The new policy is also a better deal than one the CPUC had previously introduced. That policy offered a lower amount for excess energy rates, and also imposed new monthly fees for rooftop solar customers.    But the best deal is for existing customers. Like Proposition 13 did many years ago to lock in lower property tax rates for homeowners, those with solar systems in place right now, don’t have anything to worry about. There will be no changes to the way they are compensated for surplus energy. That also applies to people in the process of getting their system installed by the April deadline. If that's you, check for details on submitting a net metering interconnection application to your power company, which is reportedly the way you lock in the old net metering policy.   For new customers, solar power will get a little more expensive, but according to the CPUC, will still save you money.   Check for links to stories about this decision in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth for free while you are there for access to all our real estate news and educational material on real estate investing. Please remember to subscribe to our podcast and leave a review!   Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/news-and-updates/all-news/cpuc-modernizes-solar-tariff-to-support-reliability-and-decarbonization   2 - https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/12/california-solar-rules-overhauled/   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/california-lowers-solar-energy-incentives-for-homeowners.html

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 24th, 2022... we have the latest report on inflation, a surge in all-cash home purchasing deals, and the results of a survey on real estate as a wealth builder.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and a new report that shows inflation is cooling off. The Commerce Department says the Personal Consumption Expenditure index shows that prices rose just .1% in November. That brings the annual rate of inflation down from 6.1% to 5.5%. The core rate, which eliminates food and gas prices, was up .2% with an annual rate that dropped from 5% to 4.7%. The PCE index is the gauge preferred by the central bank because it takes into account changes in consumer behavior to compensate for high prices. (1)   Some economists believe that the good news on inflation will soften the Fed’s plan to continue with rate hikes. Fundstrat equity strategist Tom Lee is predicting a “massive collapse” in inflation. As reported by CNBC, Lee believes that inflation is currently operating near the Fed’s long-term goal of 2%, and that could prompt the Fed to slam on the brakes when it comes to rate hikes. (2)   The job market is still fending off the impact of a slowing economy. Initial claims were only slightly higher last week, to a total of 216,000. That’s only 2,000 claims higher than the week before. The number of continuing claims was unchanged at 1.67 million. (3)   November was a good month for new home sales. They were up 5.8% compared to October. Year-over-year, they’re still down 15.3%. Analysts say that November sales rose despite high mortgage rates thanks to builder incentives such as mortgage rate buy-downs and home price reductions. (4)   New home construction was down in November, along with housing permits and builder sentiment. The Commerce Department reports that housing starts were down .5% following a 2.1% drop in October. Starts were down much more which means fewer new homes in the pipeline. They were down 11.2% in November. For single-family homes, housing starts were down 4.1% and permits were down 7.1%. For multi-family buildings of four or more units, starts were “up” 4.8% but permits fell 17.9%. (5)   Builder sentiment fell again in December as it has done for every other month this year. But as MarketWatch reports, builders see a silver lining. They’ve had a tough time finding buyers, but mortgage rates have been coming down from the 7% level, and buyers are trickling back into the market. Builders are also offering incentives, as I mentioned, to sweeten the deal. (6)   Existing home sales continue to slump. They were down in November for the 10th month in a row. The National Association of Realtors reports a 7.7% decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. Existing-home sales have now dropped almost 37% since March. The last time they were this low was in May of 2020. Before that, it was November of 2010. (7)   Mortgage Rates   The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to slowly deflate. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate was down another 4 basis points last week, to 6.27%. The 15-year mortgage went in the opposite direction. It was up 15 basis points to 5.69%. (8)   In other news making headlines…   New High for All-Cash Purchases   High interest rates are turning more affluent home buyers into all-cash buyers. Redfin says the all-cash deals have gone up from 24.7% last October to 31.9% this last October. (9)   Redfin analyzed 39 of the largest U.S. metros for this data. Most of the all-cash deals happened in Florida with Jacksonville topping the list at 50%. Other top metros for cash sales were West Palm Beach, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Atlanta. The lowest number of all-cash offers happened along the West Coast where home prices are more expensive.   Real Estate as a Wealth Builder   A new CNBC survey shows that real estate is the most popular way to build wealth, but that many Americans are not acting on those beliefs. According to the survey, 23% of Americans believe that investing in real estate is the best way to create wealth, but only 12% of them purchased real estate in 2022. Instead, 27% of the people who responded put money into the stock market.   Financial experts say that the cost of real estate is what keeps many Americans from doing what they believe is best. Real estate can be a more secure investment over the long-term, but it also requires a bigger initial investment.   If you’d like to learn more about how you build wealth with real estate, please join RealWealth. It’s free to join at newsforinvestors.com and learn more about how to pay for your real estate investments. You’ll also find links to other topics mentioned in the show notes of this episode.   Please remember to subscribe to our podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening, and Happy Holidays!   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/high-u-s-inflation-is-on-the-wane-pce-price-gauge-shows-11671802664?mod=economy-politics   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/fundstrats-tom-lee-says-the-fed-could-pause-hiking-soon-sparking-rally.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-inch-up-to-216-000-but-offers-little-sign-of-labor-market-weakness-11671716394?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-rose-in-november-by-5-8-11671808949   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-building-permits-fall-11-2-in-november-while-housing-starts-only-dip-slightly-11671544599?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-sentiment-drops-fell-every-single-month-in-2022-builders-say-theres-a-silver-lining-11671462193   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-10th-straight-month-in-n   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.redfin.com/news/all-cash-home-purchases-fha-loans-october-2022/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/americans-say-real-estate-is-best-way-to-build-wealth.html

Rent growth has been slowing down in step with the economy, but it’s still running hotter than it was before the pandemic. And that’s expected to encourage more jurisdictions to consider and or pass rent control legislation. Even Florida is turning towards rent control as an answer for high rents.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   As Bisnow reports, rents remain “painfully high” for many Americans, despite slower rent growth for both single-family and multi-family rentals. (1) Year-over-year single-family rent growth hit a high of 13.9% in April of last year, but has been slowing down for the last five months. It’s still in the double digits, but is now 10.2%. Florida metros have seen the highest SFR rent growth with Miami and Orlando at the top of that list. (2)   It’s a similar situation for apartments but rent growth has come down further. Annual rent growth hit a record high of 17.6% in 2021. It’s now down to 4.6% year-over-year, although that’s still a healthy gain for landlords. (3)   Rent Growth vs. Wage Growth   Because rent growth has outpaced income, many households are finding it more difficult to pay their rent. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, more than 19 million renter households paid more than 30% of their income on housing from 2017 to 2021. That’s defined as “cost-burdened” by the Department of Housing and Urban Development.    Housing costs vary from market to market, but the National Multifamily Housing Council, which advocates “against” rent control, has identified a number of markets that could become rent control battlegrounds in the coming year. These markets are identified in the NMHC’s 2023 Rent Control Outlook report. (4)   Four Rent Control Risk Levels   The report separates the potential for rent control activity into four categories. Tier one includes states where “active state or local legislation action is expected.” Those states include: Colorado, Illinois, Florida (which has been notoriously opposed to rent control), Maryland Massachusetts, Nevada, and Washington State.   Tier two includes states where the potential for state or local legislative activity is “elevated.” Those states include Connecticut, Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, and Rhode Island. Tier three includes states where rent control activity is expected, but will probably not get approved. Those states include Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. The last category is where rent control expansion is an ongoing threat. California and New York are among those states, of course, along with Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Oregon.   Rent Control Minefield for Investors   Rent control can be a minefield for investors, especially if they purchased a property under one set of rules, and then the rules change. It costs money to run a rental business, and when rents are controlled, rent revenues suffer. Investors may be less likely to put money into rentals, which could impact repairs on existing rentals and/or reduce the overall supply and make it harder for renters to find housing.   A cap on rents could also reduce the value of the property. Bisnow cites a study published in October by Duke Financial Economics Center. It found that property values declined 6% in St. Paul, Minnesota during the first three months after rent control was implemented last year. That’s for all rental and non-rental properties. For rental properties alone, values were down an additional 6% to a total of 12% due to lower future rents. The report says that lost property value essentially transferred that value from the owners to the renters.   White House Silent on Presidential Executive Order   While the NMHC anticipates activity at the local and state levels, some rent control advocates are floating the idea of an executive order by President Joe Biden that would impose some sort of rent control. So far, the White House has been silent on that matter. It did enact a housing plan in May that would “ease the burden of housing costs” but that plan did not include rent control. It just offered general policy proposals that include zoning reforms, new kinds of financing, and federal dollars for affordable housing.   As what might be seen as a follow-up to this, a coalition of more than 2,500 nonprofits and public agencies wrote a letter to Congress asking for affordable housing legislation. The letter is addressed as a “Call to Invest in Our Neighborhoods” or ACTION. Specific requests in the letter call for a 50% expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit  and a lower Private Activity Bond financing threshold of 25%. It is currently at 50%.   According to a Realtor.com survey, 70% of landlords said in October that they plan to raise their rents over the next year. That is down from about 72% last spring.   You’ll find links to the reports I mentioned in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth for free while you are there for access to all our real estate news, educational material, and data on individual markets. Please remember to subscribe to our podcast and leave a review!   Thanks for listening!   LInks:   1 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/multifamily/as-rents-spiked-this-year-so-did-the-push-for-rent-control-116806   2 - https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogicannual-single-family-rent-growth-decelerates-for-fifth-consecutive-month-and-seasonal-patterns-return/   3 - https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data   4 - https://www.nmhc.org/news/nmhc-news/2022/2023-rent-control-outlook/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 17th, 2022... the Fed’s latest rate hike, a 2023 top market forecast, and where you can “live like a hobbit” on Airbnb.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. As I mentioned in an update a few days ago, the Fed hiked short-term rates once again. This time, it was a half point increase. The previous four increases were three quarters of a point. That brings the federal-funds rate up to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed’s effort to stop inflation is expected to go as high as 5.25%. Several Fed officials expect rates to go even higher. Fed Chief Jerome Powell says of the need for more rate hikes: “We’re going into next year with higher inflation than we thought.” This is expected to increase the risk of a recession. (1)   The Fed’s decision on rates came a day after the latest report on consumer prices. The Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index or CPI only rose .1% in November. That brings the annual rate of inflation down from 7.7% in October to 7.1% in November. When you omit prices for food and fuel, the core rate was up .2% to an annual rate of 6%. Digging in a little deeper, you’ll see that some price categories are still seeing high inflation, such as rents. They were up .8% in November. The good news is that prices are not rising as fast as they were, but the Fed doesn’t expect to get inflation down to pre-Covid levels of 2% until 2024 or 2025. (2)   CoreLogic released its latest report on home price growth, which shows that annual gains are down to 10.1%. That’s the slowest annual gain since early 2021, although some metros are still seeing a high rate of growth. The states of Florida, South Carolina, Georgia and North Carolina are seeing the biggest home price gains right now. The city of Miami is at the top of the metro list with an annual gain of 22.6%. Tampa is a close second at 20%. (3)   The job market is holding up. As MarketWatch reports: “Layoffs have increased, but job losses remain small.” Initial claims were 20,000 lower last week to an 11-week low of 211,000. They’ve slowly risen from a 54-year low of 166,000 last spring. Continuing claims are also slowly rising. They were up by 1,000 last week, to 1.67 million. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates have been coming down a bit as the rate of inflation weakens. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is down 2 basis points to 6.31%. The 15-year is down 13 points to 5.54%. It’s not enough to boost demand however. Freddie says it remains “very weak.” (5)   In other news making headlines…   Where Are the Hot 2023 Housing Markets?   Realtor.com came out with a top ten list of housing markets for 2023, and it looks like the South to Southeast part of the country will be in the lead. Atlanta is at the top of the list. As the so-called “New York of the South, it has the highest potential for growth, according to the National Association of Realtors. It is also more affordable compared to similar cities. NAR says that 20% of Atlanta renters can afford to buy a median-priced home. That’s higher than the national average. (6)   Raleigh, North Carolina is second on the list, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth, which is one of our preferred markets for single-family rentals. We also like Huntsville, Alabama; Jacksonville, Florida; and San Antonio, Texas which are 7th, 8th, and 9th on the list. We’ll have a link to the complete list in the show notes.   The City where Building Permits Take Almost 2 Years!   If you’ve ever had to wait weeks or even months for a building permit, you probably weren’t trying to build something in San Francisco. The Chronicle did a little research on permit-approval time and found that the typical waiting period was 627 days, or very close to “two years”! And that doesn’t include the time it might take to deal with an earlier planning approval stage which can take up to a year or more.   According to Corey Smith of the Housing Action Coalition: “It just proves what we know: that San Francisco doesn’t prioritize building new housing.” The report comes in the midst of a state review for the city’s permitting process. The city’s Department of Building Inspection also responded to the report saying that it is currently making changes that will speed up the process, but it won’t be known for some time as to how much. (7)   The Airbnb That Lets You “Live Like a Hobbit”!   Airbnb is offering a unique stay at the original “Hobbiton” in New Zealand. That’s where filming took place for “The Hobbit” and “Lord of the Rings.” It’s been open for tours for years, but the owner of the property is opening it up for 3-night stays next March to celebrate the 10th anniversary of “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.” Guests will be accommodated in one of 44 hobbit holes and experience life in The Shire. You must be at least 18 years of age, with a verified Airbnb profile, and lots of positive reviews to stay overnight. We’ll have a link to that information and our other stories in the show notes.   That’s it for today. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! It’s also free to join RealWealth if you haven’t done so already. We offer hundreds of articles, webinars, and podcasts on real estate investing. As a member, you’ll also have access to our Investor Portal with data on specific markets, our experienced investment counselors, and our curated list of real estate professionals that can help you build a rental housing portfolio.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Show Notes link:  https://www.newsforinvestors.com   Join link: https://join.realwealth.com/?utm_content=Real%20Estate%20News%20Podcast&utm_campaign=Join%20for%20Free&utm_term=Description%20Text%20Link   Subscribe link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-estate-news-real-estate-investing-podcast/id1079952715   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-interest-rate-by-half-percentage-point-benchmark-rate-seen-topping-out-at-5-25-11671044699?mod=mw_latestnews   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-cpi-inflation-report-11670937380?mod=mw_latestnews   3 - https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/corelogic-home-price-growth-drops-near-single-digits-in-october   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-to-11-week-low-of-211-000-in-early-december-11671111658?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/10-housing-markets-expected-to-lead-the-nation-in-2023   7 - https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/housing-permits-san-francisco-17652633.php   8 - https://news.airbnb.com/hobbiton/