Today in the podcast, our takeaways from our review of the 2Q22 stock-level holdings of more than 300 hedge funds based on the 13f’s that were recently released. Three big things you need to know: First, the performance of the most popular S&P 500 stocks in hedge funds has started to weaken after initially showing some signs of stabilization in late 2Q – a potentially negative signal for the broader market in the near-term. Second, hedge funds began 3Q22 with overweights to cyclicals and commodities that were at post GFC highs, overweights to defensives that were below peak, and underweights in secular growth – something that tells us the longer-term opportunity remains in the Growth trade. Third, the performance of the most popular Russell 2000 stocks in hedge funds has started to stabilize – an admittedly conflicting, positive signal for stocks.

Today in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting things we saw last week in terms of insightful charts and questions plus the high-frequency sentiment, economic, and political indicators we track. Three big things you need to know: First, our chart of the week highlights how the S&P 500 has been able to establish major bottoms in past periods of extreme stress before EPS forecasts were fully cut. Second, our question of the week addresses investor concerns that valuations no longer look appealing for the stock market following the big summer rally. Our work indicates that S&P 500 valuations are above average but below recent major peaks, while Small Caps still look attractively valued, telling us valuation pressures are not sufficient to call an end to the summer rebound just yet. Third, what jumps out most in our sentiment work is that Nasdaq futures are starting to look overbought in the weekly CFTC data for asset managers, a negative data point for the market, but that positioning in S&P 500, R2000, and Dow contracts are still in the early days of their recoveries, a positive signal.

Today in the podcast, a few thoughts on the composition of the snap back in stocks, where the earnings band-aid may have been ripped off within Small Cap, and the thing that caught our eye in our sentiment indicators. Three big things you need to know: First, low quality has started to work within Large Cap, something that’s frustrating investors, but began for Small Cap in June and typically happens after stocks have found their mid recession bottom. Second, we’ve been getting asked by Small Cap investors about where earnings sentiment has been most depressed within the Russell 2000 – similar to Large Cap it’s a number of key consumer/Tech/cyclical groups. Third, what jumped out most in terms of our sentiment indicators last week is that consumers of all political affiliations are feeling a little bit better in August, helping consumer sentiment stabilize a bit in the University of Michigan survey.

Today in the podcast, we highlight the most interesting chart we saw last week, the most interesting question we got last week, and some noteworthy shifts we’re seeing in some of the high frequency indicators that we track. Three big things you need to know: First, the most interesting chart we saw last week highlights how recession talk among S&P 500 companies is back to 2020 highs. Second, the most interesting question we got last week was on the 1% stock buyback tax in the Inflation Reduction Act. Third, our sentiment indicators, which have been a contrarian buy signal for stocks, are showing some signs of healing which is a positive for the stock market, but some of our political polling indicators are starting to shift in a way that’s unfriendly for stocks and are telling us that we need to keep a close eye on the midterms.

Today in the podcast, our takeaways on 2Q-2022 reporting season, with more than half of S&P results in. The big things you need to know: First, 2H22 and 2023 forecasts have started to come down, but perhaps not enough. Second, within the S&P 500 sector standouts so far include Energy, REITs and Utilities along with Tech. Third, Small Caps are the star of the show so far.

Today in the podcast, we update our outlook for the S&P 500 and several key positioning trades. The big things you need to know: First, we’ve made another cut to our YE 2022 S&P 500 price target to 4,200 from 4,700 and have lowered our S&P 500 EPS forecasts to $214 for 2022 and $212 for 2023. Second, looking into the back half of the year, the midterm election could be a positive catalyst for stocks and help stocks find a bottom, if one hasn’t been established already. (3) In terms of positioning, we continue to prefer US equities over non-US equities and Growth over Value. Meanwhile, our conviction level on Small Caps has strengthened and we are now going overweight Small Cap.

Today in the podcast, an update on our latest RBC equity analyst outlook survey, which we just completed, plus an update on our own latest US equity strategy sector views. Three big things you need to know: First, in our latest analyst survey, our US industry analysts were most constructive on Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Tech, and least constructive on Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Materials. Second, in terms of sectors that we like from a strategy angle, we remain overweight Tech and Financials, and we upgraded Energy and Health Care to overweight from market weight. Third, on the other end of the spectrum, we lowered Consumer Staples to underweight from market weight and upgraded REITs from underweight to market weight. We remain underweight Communication Services.

In this week’s RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist, guest hosts to discuss his latest views on the natural gas markets.Today in our 6:15 minute podcast, we discuss the factors impacting US natural gas prices this year and beyond. Natural gas prices generally are attracting far more attention amid headlines of energy prices broadly, inflation worries and economic concerns, and even energy crises that have in many ways held outsized interest in the market. While global gas prices remain on another level, US gas prices also reached very high levels earlier this year, and even after some recent developments, they still remain quite elevated.We cover three main themes in this episode. First, geopolitical premiums are now present in US natural gas markets in a way they were not before. We draw on both an analysis we did earlier this summer as well as some learnings after an explosion that shut down a major US facility early last month. This leads us to our second point - our view for the remainder of this year. We think gas prices should average north of $6/MMBtu in the US, a view that previously was our high scenario, and now looks like the more probable one for the remainder of the year. Third, in all of our scenarios US gas prices fall next year. While we are by no means returning to the lower-for-longer price environment many had gotten used to, we do expect lower gas prices in 2023 as production comes online and there is less structural growth on the other side of the balance y/y, albeit with the caveat that geopolitics are here to stay for US natural gas.

In this week’s RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, Michael Tran, Commodity and Digital Intelligence Strategist, guest hosts to discuss his latest views on the global oil market dynamic.Today in our 11:30 minute podcast, we discuss the recent oil price volatility and explore the dynamic between the push and pull between the looming threat of a recession which is being stacked up against the strongest fundamental oil market set up in decades, or maybe even ever.Three things to know: First, given the recent price rout, the financial oil market is dislocating dramatically from an extremely tight spot physical market. Near record Atlantic Basin physical pricing differentials, the Saudi hike to Official Selling Prices (OSPs) and the CPC pipeline outage are indicative that the steadfast physical market is telling a diametrically opposed story to the plunging paper market. The physical market is pricing in scarcity while the financial market is pricing in recession.Second, despite the recent plunge in oil prices, term structure remains relatively intact, surprisingly. This means that the term portion of the curve is also retracing significantly lower. Unless the recession is deep and protracted, we believe that the dated calendar strips are largely undervalued. However, the near term recessionary risks must be respected. In a recessionary scenario in which demand is impacted at a similar rate as previous downturns, we could see a scenario in which spot prices retreat into the mid $70/bbl range in the back half of this year. Now, we only place a 15% probability to such an outcome, but we have all been doing this long enough to know that oil price moves can be swift, violent and unforgiving, in both directions. The bullish conviction is high, but sentiment is soft among the commodity trading community.Third, while the debate regarding the health of the consumer remains an open ended question, large scale demand destruction is rare. Over the past 30 years leading into the pandemic, there were 39 individual months in which retail gasoline prices increased by more than 30%, YoY. Of those instances, we have seen gasoline demand fall by 2% or more on only 12 of those occasions. And five of those instances took place during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. In short, protracted demand destruction events have historically been rare, absent a recession. That said, the strength of the US dollar means that oil priced in local currencies is still punching in either at or near all-time record highs for many regions across the globe.

Today in the podcast, our thoughts on a few additional questions that we’ve been getting from equity investors in our recent travels across the US, a topic we also explored in our last podcast. Three big (new) things you need to know: First, equity investors have been asking us whether inflation has been good for stocks and earnings. We think that it has, and view moderating inflation as more of a headwind in the outlook for stocks than many investors may realize. Second, a number have asked our opinion on the low quality trade. We’ve reminded investors that low quality tends to outperform after the stock market has found its mid-recession bottom. We’d expect the same this time around for a short period of time. Third, a number have asked if we could dig deeper on our sector recession playbook analysis, and we’ve replicated it for the 24 industry groups. Areas that tend to outperform during recessions as well as the broader market drawdown and rebound phases include Commercial & Professional Services, Consumer Services, Materials, Retailing, and Transportation.

This week in the podcast, highlights from our conversations with institutional equity investors last week, plus updates on the valuation and sentiment indicators we’re watching. Five big things you need to know: First, we’ve outlined two possible recession paths for S&P 500 EPS which suggest a valuation case for the S&P 500 can be made today on next year P/E if the recession is short-lived or at 3,200 on current year EPS. Second, as investors seek out clues on what’s been de-risked, we’ve been highlighting why the risk/reward for Small Caps has improved and note that Russell 2000 valuations returned to levels that often mark the low last week. Third, on sectors, we’ve also been highlighting how defensive sectors have been close to peak valuation vs. Secular Growth and Cyclicals, how Energy’s strong move up in early 2022 is out of sync with the typical recession drawdown, and how declines in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services are already baking in recession to a significant degree. Fourth, the midterm elections are starting to emerge as a potential positive catalyst for US equities later this year in the eyes of some investors. Fifth, institutional investor sentiment appeared to get closer to a bottom last week.

This week in the podcast, some quick thoughts on US equities in the aftermath of Friday’s hot CPI print and subsequent sell-off. Three big things you need to know: First, the recent rise in long-run inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggests that Value oriented sectors may continue to lead for a bit longer. Second, our look back at the historical playbook for US equities around recessions provides some insight into how low the S&P 500 could go. Third, our weekly sentiment indicators continue to highlight the deeply negative views that already pervade the investment community.

This week in the podcast, we’re updating our outlook on the broader US equity market. Three big things you need to know: First, we have trimmed our S&P 500 year-end 2022 price target to 4700 from 4860. This is a housekeeping move. We are continuing to bake in a slower economic growth backdrop in 2022-2023 as opposed to a recession. Second, we continue to be more intrigued with Growth over Value going forward as most of our indicators look better for Growth or are fading for Value. Third, we recommend removing underweights on Small Cap and moving back to neutral vs. Large Cap, as Small Cap looks intriguing or better on our positioning/sentiment, valuation, and earnings work. The better risk/reward for Small Cap is something that reinforces our view that equity markets generally can move higher through year end.

This week in the podcast, we dig into Consumer Staples, the third best performing sector in the S&P 500 so far in 2022. The big thing you need to know: We are sticking with a market weight stance on the sector. The tailwinds that have boosted sector performance so far this year (a favorable macro backdrop for defensives, rising recession fears, strong money flows, and a higher quality profile than other defensives) may continue to support leadership in the sector in the near term. But our list of concerns on the sector is growing, and includes extremely problematic valuations, crowded positioning, earnings revisions risk, a weaker ESG profile, and a cautious outlook from our analyst team. On a 6-12 month view, we think staying neutral makes the most sense and we’re reluctant to chase.

In this week’s podcast, we run through our takeaways from the first quarter 13fs of more than 300 of the biggest US-based hedge funds, which came out last week. Three big things you need to know: First, our review of the performance trends and relative valuations of the most popular S&P 500 stocks in hedge funds suggests to us that the pandemic froth is out of these names, an important milestone, but on the valuation side there may still be some room to fall. Second, we are keeping a close eye on the performance trends of the most popular hedge fund stocks relative to the broader market as another gauge of institutional investor sentiment. Third, in terms of sector positioning, what jumps out to us the most is that while hedge fund positioning in Consumer Staples remained underweight relative to the Russell 3000 as 1Q22 came to an end, the underweight has narrowed and is back to its 3Q16 high, which we view as another cautious data point on the sector.

This week in the podcast, ourlatest thoughts on economic expectations, sentiment, and valuations. The bigthings you need to know: First, the S&P 500 is still trading as though it’sexperiencing a growth scare, a framework that has been pointing to downside inthe S&P 500 to ~3,850. Current trends in economic forecasts continue tosupport the idea that this is the right way to think about how far stocksshould fall. Second, institutional investor sentiment has made significantprogress catching down to retail investor sentiment, with overall US equityfutures positioning among asset managers now below 2020 & Great FinancialCrisis lows, and getting close to 2011 and 2015/2016 lows – something thatmakes the case for a bottoming in stocks relatively soon if recession fears canbe kept at bay. Third, while valuations aren’t yet a reason to buy US equitieson their own, they are no longer a problem for the market as a whole.

This week in the podcast we tackle the topic of investor sentiment, which has been back in focus given the S&P 500’s recent decline. The big things you need to know: First, the 13.9% drawdown in place at Friday’s close is near the range of prior growth scares, but our growth scare framework points to possible downside in the S&P 500 to 3,850 even with no recession if the Friday low doesn’t hold. Second, net bullishness on the AAII retail investor survey broke to a new post-Financial Crisis low last week, a contrarian buy signal for stocks on a 12-month forward basis. Third, positioning among asset managers in US equity futures hasn’t been quite as extreme, which suggests that institutional investor sentiment still needs to catch down to retail investors. Fourth, other widely watched fear gauges, the VIX and equity put/call ratio have moved up, another longer-term contrarian buy signal for stocks, but don’t look extreme yet. Overall, we think the data continues to paint a picture of extreme fear and a contrarian opportunity for longer-term investors, even though there is scope for further movement/more downside in the very near term on some gauges.

Four big things you need to know: (1) First, we’ve trimmed our year-end 2022 S&P 500 price target from 5,050 to 4,860. The recent move up in bond yields was the biggest contributor to the downward revision to our forecast. (2) Second, we think US equities are likely to keep benefiting from safe haven status for a bit longer. (3) Third, we continue to be more intrigued with Growth than Value going forward, though we’d be highly selective in our Growth exposure. (4) Fourth, while Small Caps are looking interesting again on valuation and positioning, we remain concerned that fundamentals will stay challenging for Small Caps given the downshift in economic expectations towards slower growth.

Today in the podcast, our thoughts on the 1Q22 reporting season, which kicks off this week in earnest with Financials. The big things you need to know: First, full-year S&P 500 EPS forecasts on the sell-side for 2022 and 2023 have moved up $5-6 since January, but underlying expectations regarding the path of profitability are likely more conservative than this stat suggests. Second, forward-looking expectations are being propped up by a few sectors, including Energy and Tech. Third, our quantitative transcript review highlights the extent to which demand, inflation, price hikes, labor, the Fed, and Russia/Ukraine have been in focus in recent company commentary, and we expect these issues will remain key themes in 1Q22 earnings calls. Fourth, in our manual review of earnings call transcripts, one thing that’s really jumped out to us has been commentary on the consumer, which we think reflects a shift from goods to services spending and overall resilience.

Today in the podcast, we run through the results of our quarter investor survey, which we conducted from March 28th to 31st of 106 institutional equity investors. The big things you need to know: First, stock market bulls nearly vanished in our 1Q22 survey. Second, valuations, margins, the Fed, gas prices & Russia/Ukraine are weighing heavily on investors, but on Russia/Ukraine some of the more dire outcomes aren’t seen as probable, and opinions on recession are split helping explain why us equities have been rebounding. Third, we saw a cautious bent to positioning views. Fourth, the survey results reinforce our belief that the US equity market has already baked in a lot of bad news, at least in part, but that the onset of a recession or major broadening out/worsening of the Russia/Ukraine war are key downside risks to monitor.

Today in the podcast, we’re focusing on the results of our quarterly RBC analyst survey, which we conducted in late March and helps us incorporate the bottom-up views of RBC’s team of equity analysts into our top-down strategy sector recommendations. Five big things you need to know: First, outlooks among our analysts for performance over the next 6-12 months continue to tilt positive. Second, on performance over the next 6-12 months, our analysts remained highly constructive on Financials, Health Care, and Technology, but enthusiasm on Energy faded. Third, on issues other than performance, Health Care and Utilities generally rank well relative to other sectors. Fourth, as for what’s keeping our analysts up at night, many mentioned demand related issues in their discussions of key upside and downside risks. Fifth, triggered by our survey results, as well as our desire to reduce exposure to Value, we are lowering our recommendation on Energy from overweight to market weight.

This week in the podcast, guest host Sara Mahaffy, RBC’s ESG Strategist, runs through the team’s latest work on ESG flows. Inflows into US listed ESG ETF’s have been relatively strong so far in early March, and we’ve seen relative performance trends for ESG darlings stabilize. Clean energy flows have also bounced back in March.

This week in the podcast, we run through a few new thoughts on Russia /Ukraine from a US equity market perspective. Three big things you need to know: First, the big, obvious risks to our call on the S&P 500 are the possibility that the war will turn into a prolonged conflict involving NATO or the possibility that the US will slip into recession. We took a look at the historical playbook for stocks during WW2 and past recessions as a starting point for how to think about possible downside levels in the index should either of these risks materialize. Second, we are starting to see some shifts in momentum in political polling data back in Biden and the Democrats’ favor, which are worth keeping a close eye on given the mid term elections coming up in November. Third, public company commentary on the Russia/Ukraine crisis has surged and while most companies have said direct exposure is minimal, the broader conversation reflects a significant degree of uncertainty surrounding the impact of the event – reinforcing to us that the stock market either needs more time to digest what’s happening or an outright de-escalation of the conflict in order to stabilize.

In this week’s podcast, we run through the takeaways from our latest Macroscope report, our big monthly chart book in which we update our thoughts on the US equity market outlook from both a top-down and bottom-up perspective. We know all eyes are focused on Russia and Ukraine, but we thought it's important to pause and reflect on where things are at this particular moment in time. Three big things you need to know: First, we continue to see a path for the S&P 500 to our 2022 year-end price target of 5,050, but remain mindful of risks to our view. Second, we’re getting closer to an inflection back to Growth leadership. Third, Small Cap outperformance vs. Large Cap since early February seems deserved, but we suspect that it will be short-lived.

This week in the podcast, our latest thoughts on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from a US equity market perspective. Three big things you need to know: (1) First, while the duration of growth scares in the S&P 500 since the Financial Crisis has varied, recoveries tend to be quick and powerful. (2) Second, individual investor sentiment took another hit last week and remains below pandemic lows - a contrarian buy signal for stocks. (3) Third, while stocks have fallen a bit more than we expected to start the year and we are mindful of risks to our view, we are sticking with our 5,050 year-end S&P 500 price target for 2022.

This week in the podcast, we run through our thoughts on what a Russian invasion of Ukraine might mean for US equity markets going forward. Three big things you need to know: First, US public companies haven’t been talking much about geopolitics or Russia/Ukraine recently, but the level of conversation is starting to pick up. Second, RBC’s US equity analysts see the potential for slowing growth/recession in Europe, higher energy prices, and potential impacts on supply chains as the most relevant challenges for their industries if a Russian invasion of Ukraine occurs. Third, we continue to believe that geopolitical risk emanating from Russia/Ukraine is not priced into the US equity market, should conditions worsen, and will be a key issue to watch in the weeks and months ahead.

This week in the podcast, we run through our latest thoughts on earnings, sentiment, trends in high frequency indicators, and Russia. Five big things you need to know: First, with 4Q21 reporting season starting to wind down, the earnings outlook remains stable. Second, in terms of the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions, Value and Cyclicals continue to outshine Defensives and Secular Growth. Third, retail investor sentiment has started to stabilize on the AAII survey and positioning in Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures also suggests both Growth and Small Caps are oversold. Fourth, high frequency indicators are still recovering for the most part, casting doubt on recession fears. And fifth, while we continue believe the Fed is mostly priced in to the S&P 500, a Russian invasion of Ukraine may not be and currently presents one of the key risks to the stock market.

This week in the podcast, we run through our main takeaways on 4Q21 reporting season, with just over half of S&P 500 results in. The big things you need to know: First, the earnings resiliency we discussed in our last Spotlight solidified over the past week, supporting the stock market. Second, early sector standouts include Tech, Energy, and Health Care. Third, our quantitative transcript review suggests confidence has slipped a little, along with demand and margin views. Fourth, our manual review of earnings calls transcripts has kept us vigilant on the consumer, but not panicked.

This week in the podcast, we run through five good things we’re seeing in the data right now for the broader US equity market right now. First, bottom-up 2022 and 2023 EPS forecasts have been holding steady. Second, the contraction in the S&P 500 forward P/E is in line with past Fed tightening periods. Third, the valuation gap between the most expensive and least expensive stocks is getting close to pre-pandemic levels. Fourth, retail investor sentiment is back to pandemic lows. Fifth and finally, Small Cap futures positioning is on the cusp of net short territory, and isn’t too far above where it bottomed in March 2020.

In this episode, we run through early takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings reporting season, a few new thoughts on the Growth/Value rotation, and an update on investor sentiment. Four big things you need to know: First, performance has been poor, with 63% of S&P 500 companies falling significantly post results and companies missing on revenues getting hit hardest. Second, our transcript review suggests that labor is emerging as the new hottest topic, and that omicron disruption may have been greater than anticipated. Third, our valuation work suggests that progress has been made on the Growth rotation, but that it still has room to go. Fourth, retail investor sentiment is close to pandemic lows, a positive for stocks on a 12-month view.

In this edition of the podcast, we discuss the biggest takeaways from the publication of Macroscope, our big monthly chartbook digging into the US equity market from top to bottom, looking at everything from the S&P 500 to style to sectors to industries to factors and Small Caps. Two big things you need to know. First, we’re sticking with our 5,050 forecasts for the S&P 500 at year-end 2022, a tougher year but one that ultimately sees modest gains. Second, while we still like Value and Cyclicals in early 2022, we’ve lost faith in Small Caps’ ability to see an early year outperformance trade and dig into the reasons why.

In this edition of the podcast, we review our latest thoughts on the fierce rotation we’re seeing from Growth to Value and Cyclicals so far in 2022. Two big things you need to know: (1) We think it’s premature to declare the rotation out of Secular Growth into Value and Cyclicals over yet. (2) We’ve continued to get questions about what to own in a rising rate environment – our answer is pretty simple – sell what’s expensive (a list still dominated by Tech) and buy what’s cheap (a list still full of commodities and Financials).

This week in the podcast, we run through the results of our quarterly RBC US equity analyst survey, which we conducted in late December 2021. The big things you need to know: First, our analysts’ outlooks for performance over the next 6–12 months remain optimistic, boosted by constructive views on fundamentals, valuations, cash deployment, and margins. Second, across all questions, our analysts tilt positive on Energy, Financials, Materials, and Information Technology, along with Utilities and Health Care. Third, key issues in focus for our analysts are demand, COVID, inflation, regulation, labor, supply chains, and pricing power. What jumped out the most on hot topics is that our analysts generally see their companies as able to manage through the major challenges ahead, including Omicron.

This week in the podcast, we’re running through the results of our December US equity investor survey, conducted December 16th through 21st. Three big things you need to know: First, half of investors are optimistic on stock market performance over the next 6-12 months, supported by constructive views on the economy and cash deployment, but weighed down by concerns about valuations, policy and margins. Second, in terms of hot topics, monetary policy and inflation top the list of issues keeping investors up at night. Third, in terms of positioning, High Quality, US, and Large Caps, were the most popular choices for outperformance over the next 6-12 months, as the popularity of Value, Cyclicals, Financials and Energy faded.

This week in the podcast, we recap some of the conversations we’ve been having with investors in December about our 2022 forecasts. Two big things you need to know: First, investors have been keen to discuss the downside risks to the stock market. While we’re still constructive on 2022, and are still looking for 5,050 on the S&P 500, we outline five things we’re concerned about regarding the broader market, which could generate volatility during the year, particularly early on. Second, as we’ve discussed our view that Value, Cyclicals, and Small Cap will lead early in the year while Growth, Secular and Large Cap will lead late in the year, the investors we’ve been speaking with have wanted to explore what our thoughts are on the timing and triggers of that mid-year leadership shift.

This week in the podcast, we review the results of our November 29th investor survey on views regarding the omicron variant. The big things you need to know: (1) “Neutral/don’t know” was the most popular response to our question on the general outlook for Omicron with more than one-third of respondents, but nearly half put themselves into the optimistic or very optimistic camp. (2) Roughly half saw no impact on the path of tapering, while views on the impact of the path of hikes were split between those who said hikes will be delayed and those who said there’s no impact. (3) Roughly half said they are not doing anything with regard to portfolio positioning until they have more information. (4) Vaccine efficacy and severity of disease were the biggest questions on investors’ minds.

This week in the podcast, we review our latest thoughts on the broader US equity market outlook. The big things you need to know: First, last week we moved our 2022 S&P 500 target up by ~3% to 5,050 from 4,900, adjusting our forecast for the bigger than expected move we’ve seen in the index as 2021 starts to wind down and the latest updates in our models. We continue to see 2022 as a solid year for the US equity market, but with more moderate gains than we’ve experienced in 2021. Second, we highlight how inflation has helped prop up US equity positioning, making it tough to be too bearish on US equities in the wake of last week’s higher than expected CPI print. Third, we discuss the breakout that Small Caps are attempting in November, and reiterate our view that Small Caps and Value are likely to see another burst of out performance between now and mid 2022.

This week in the podcast, we review our latest thoughts on the US equity market’s recent resiliency. The big things you need to know: First, US equities tend to outperform bonds when the Fed is hiking rates, providing one longer-term reason for US equity market resiliency as the timing of Fed rate hikes remains in focus. Second, negative real yields, which are close to their lowest levels post Financial Crisis, also remain supportive of US equity markets for now. Third, last month’s peak in freight rates helped to put in what has been, at least for the moment, a bottom in the S&P 500 and the cyclical trade as investors have been inclined to latch onto glimmers of hope on the supply chain problem.

This week in the podcast, we review our latest thoughts on investor sentiment and 3Q21 earnings season. The big things you need to know: First, in terms of investor sentiment, optimism continued to build among individual investors last week, while institutional investor positioning stabilized. Second, reporting season stayed “good enough” for the stock market to keep moving up last week. Strong beat rates and company commentary that emphasized the strength of underlying demand and the ability of many (though not all) companies to manage through inflation and supply chain pressures allowed the S&P 500 to make a new high, even though the few companies that did miss lagged sharply.

This week in the podcast, we revisit our work on investor and earnings sentiment, which we’ve been watching closely post Labor Day, offer a few thoughts on earnings season which officially got underway last week, and offer some new thoughts on supply chains. Four big things you need to know: First, individual investor sentiment may be starting to recover, after turning deeply bearish last month. Second, earnings sentiment has continued to deteriorate for the S&P 500, but may soon bottom in Industrials and Materials, supporting the idea that much of the pain from supply chain pressures may already be baked into those sectors. Third, 3Q21 reporting season is off to a good enough start in terms of the stats, and the commentary from companies has also continued to emphasize strong underlying demand. Fourth, we see other glimmers of hope – in data – on supply chains beyond the recent decline in freight costs that has captured investors' attention.

This week in the podcast, we runthrough the results of our latest quarterly RBC analyst survey, in which wepoll the firm’s equity analysts on the outlooks for the industries they cover.The big things you need to know: First, outlooks for performance over the next6-12 months remain optimistic, driven by constructive views on fundamentals,valuations, and cash deployment. Second, our analysts tilt most positive onFinancials, Energy, Information Technology, Utilities, and Health Care, andleast positive on REITs and Industrials. Third, policy outlooks generallyremain cool, though it’s worth noting most see higher corporate taxes as amoderate problem for earnings and performance as opposed to a major one.Fourth, while margin expectations have eased only a handful of our analystsconsider supply chains to be a major problem for the industries they cover.

In this episode, we’re continuing to explore the state of investor sentiment by digging into the results of our late September US equity investor survey. Four big things you need to know: First, pessimists on the overall US equity market continued to rise, but remained below past highs. Second, the deterioration in the overall stock market outlook occurred alongside persistent valuation concerns, and deteriorating margin expectations, as well as slipping optimism on cash deployment and the economy. Third, on the hot topics in the market, investors are most concerned about China, geopolitical risk, and monetary policy. Fourth, investors are still leaning into select parts of the reflation trade.

This week in the podcast, we discuss the latest developments in investor and earnings sentiment, which we’ve been keeping a close eye on this month, as well as a few thoughts on the rotation out of growth we’ve been seeing this week.Three big things you need to know.  First, institutional investor positioning has finally taken a hit.  Second, earnings sentiment has continued to deteriorate, driven by cyclicals and supply chain concerns, but so far the damage has been concentrated in a few sectors. Third, we think there’s more to the rotation out of Growth this week than higher bond yields, but regardless this rotation has become another catalyst for downside in the US equity market in the near-term. Our bottom line, as we think across all of these issues, is that the volatility we’ve been in as regards to the broader US equity market likely isn’t done yet.

This week in the podcast, we tackle three topics: investor sentiment, earnings sentiment, and supply chains.Three big things you need to know: (1) First, individual investor sentiment has fallen so hard recently, it may soon send a contrarian buy signal. (2) Second, earnings sentiment has started to deteriorate, led by Cyclicals, but Secular Growth has stayed resilient. (3) Third, we highlight what we’re watching on supply chains -- specifically, the rate of change in freight costs, global COVID trends, and regional Fed surveys -- where we are seeing some faint glimmers of hope.

In this episode, we update our thoughts on the broader US equity market outlook. Three big things you need to know: (1) First, we are lifting our 2021 EPS forecast and price target by ~4%, and lifting our 2022 EPS forecast by ~3%, while also introducing our S&P 500 price target for 2022 which calls for a 9% annual gain. (2) Second, we continue to see risk of a pullback in the S&P 500 before year-end, but view it as a buying opportunity. (3) Third, one key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market – and our call – is the possibility that S&P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022.

This week in the podcast, guesthost Sara Mahaffy, RBC’s ESG Strategist, runs through the team’s latest work onsustainable fund flows, ESG themes in focus, and trends in new sustainable fundlaunches.

This week in the podcast, we provide an end of summerupdate on our earnings transcript review and the high frequency economic,sentiment, and virus indicators that we track. We also offer a few thoughts onwhat tapering means for US equity markets. Three big things you need to know:(1) Last week’s earnings calls provided an important reminder about thestrength of the consumer. (2) The reflation trades remain tethered to COVIDtrends. (3) We think equity investors have already priced in tapering to asignificant degree, given the underperformance of Value and Small Cap that wesaw earlier this summer.

In this week’s podcast, we take a closer look at the recent impact of the COVID backdrop on the US equity market. The three big things you need to know: (1) First, COVID has taken up more airtime on earnings calls in August, and the tone on the variant has been fairly mixed. (2) Second, we’re seeing more pronounced signs of stress in the high-frequency indicators that we track. (3) Third, for the most part, the US equity market has remained forward-looking, focusing not on the impacts of the latest surge but rather on the continuation of the recovery thereafter.