Equity markets have suffered steep losses in recent hours on the back of better-than-expected private employment data - today's official US non-farm payrolls report for June is likely to shed further light on the resilience of the US economy. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on how these figures could impact currencies and metals. And Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia, talks about where he sees the best investment opportunities in Asian equity markets at the moment.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)06:54 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:32 Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023 deep-dive – Asian Equities by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Asia Research)18:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The Fed minutes released yesterday revealed some disagreement among committee members regarding the future path of interest-rate policy. After their June ‘pause’ it seems that members do expect to resume hiking rates but perhaps at a slower pace. US and Asian markets closed lower, with Asian stocks also impacted by the recent disappointing data from China. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, updates us on events in the oil markets, whilst Nicolas Jordan fills us in on our CIO’s current thinking.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:09 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:05 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

China’s services sector activity is seeing a deceleration in its growth rate, as some firms reported softer than expected market demand, denting investor sentiment ahead of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China. And we hear from Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who shares with us his outlook for developed market equities in the second half of 2023.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:39 Mid-Year Market Outlook - Developed-Market Equity Strategy by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)10:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep interest rates on hold. China has decided to restrict exports of critical minerals and electric vehicle manufacturers had one of their best days yesterday after Tesla and BYD reported strong Q2 electric vehicle sales figures. Manuel Villegas of the Next Generation Research team provides an insight into the latest news regarding Bitcoin ETFs.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:51 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)05:30 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The Nasdaq 100 index had its best first half-year ever, up 39%, as the emergence of the artificial intelligence product cycle drove these and other major US equities higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield came within striking distance of 4.0% last week, and strong electric vehicle sales and talk of the first approval of a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF are also in focus this Monday morning. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis research, points out that equities are not only strong on their own, but also relative to gold and bonds.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:53 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US Treasury yields rose yesterday on better-than-expected economic data, but stocks continued to climb the wall of worry. The all-important US PCE deflator figures for May will decide the fate of the markets on the last trading day of the half year. And there is a lot going on in the currency markets these days - hear what our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, Tim Gagie, has to say about the latest moves.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:41 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)14:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

At the ECB forum in Sintra, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey all said that they still have some way to go in raising interest rates to fight inflation. The 23 largest US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test. And both the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan are in focus as authorities worry about the weakness of their currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, says silver continues to move in gold’s slipstream.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:12 Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

A raft of strong data underscores the resilience of the US’s economy in the face of stickier-than-expected inflation. Investors will closely be watching the ECB forum today, when top central bankers will speak on a policy panel to discuss how to combat unrelenting inflation. And we hear from Roman Frey, Head of Fixed Income Investment Management, who shares with us why now is such a good time to consider fixed income.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:34 Implementing Market Outlook Fixed Income strategy by Roman Frey (Head of Fixed Income Investment Management)11:01 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stock markets didn’t have the best start to the week as tech stocks led indices lower. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer, falling more than 1%. But this bad start to the week needs to be put into context: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track to finish June more than 3% higher, while the Dow Jones is currently set for a monthly gain of nearly 2.5%. As rates starts to bite and their impact is felt, Dario Messi highlights which segments of the bond market should be in investors’ focus as we head into the second half of the year.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:57 Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023 deep-dive – Fixed income by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)08:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Markets are eerily calm this morning following the dramatic end to an armed uprising in Russia. This week marks the last week of trading for the first half of the year, so the first conclusions will be drawn with regard to market performance this year. The headlines this week are likely to include the ECB’s Bank Forum in Sintra, the release of the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator), and the US bank stress tests. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to explain the technical patterns in precious metals.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Asian equities and European stock futures are in a sea of red this Friday morning as major developed market central banks go on inflation alert. However, artificial intelligence (AI) stocks continue to shine. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is falling again as traders look ahead to possible intervention to support the currency. In today's podcast, David Meier, Senior Economist, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, give their views on a range of currencies – from the British pound to the Turkish lira and the Brazilian real, to name but a few.00:14 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:56 UK Update by David A. Meier (Senior Economist)13:44 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)18:31 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Stock markets are lower for the third day in a row as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message on monetary policy, and data points to slower growth ahead. And European natural gas prices are on the rise again - listen to Norbert Rücker, our Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, to find out whether he thinks Europe is once again on the brink of an energy crisis.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:52 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:47 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)10:09 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)13:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equity markets struggle ahead of US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual report to Congress today, when he is expected to reinforce the message that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on why investors should not be chasing the rally in high yield bonds. And Adrienne Järsvall, Head of Fund Advisors, shares with us why now is a good time to consider alternative investments.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:53 Don’t chase the high yield bond rally by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)08:16 Reasons to consider alternative investments now by Adrienne Järsvall (Head of Fund Advisors)11:35 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

European markets fell at the start of the new trading week with investors nervous about the economic outlook. US markets were shut for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight as investors digested China’s central bank decision to cut its one-year and five-year loan prime rate. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping yesterday, with both sides pledging to stabilise their relationship. Hannah Wise joins the podcast today with details of what to expect when she hosts Christian Gattiker and David Kohl in the mid-year markets outlook webcast, which takes place at 10.00 CEST on the 27th of June.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:25 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:33 US growth and inflation by Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)05:30 Preview of Mid-Year Market Outlook webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of Video Channels)08:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The main story this morning is the visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which has shown the first tentative signs of progress. However, Asian equities are still lower today as investors reset their expectations for further stimulus from China. Despite a generally quiet morning, the week ahead will be busy for investors with a total of 12 central banks due to announce their latest decisions and on the macroeconomic front, we will receive a number of leading indicators (flash Purchasing Managers’ indices).00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

After a flurry of interest rate decisions by major central banks, global equities are mostly higher and the USD is mostly weaker - although it is rising against the JPY as the Bank of Japan remains on its lonely monetary policy island. The rally in US equities appears to be broadening, while Chinese equities are rallying on stimulus hopes. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses currency positioning as the USD has continued to weaken against most currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that simply stopping rate hikes is not enough for gold to shine again.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:41 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:07,5 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)14:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged yesterday and sees two small hikes by the end of 2023, as it deals with a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his thoughts on how the Fed will move from here, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides an update from our CIO’s Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:45 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:30 Comments on Fed meeting by David Kohl (Chief Economist)10:10 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The stock market rally extended yesterday after US inflation figures reassured investors. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but much of the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the press conference. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, expects some words of caution. 00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:35 Bond markets ahead of central bank decisions by Dario Messi (Fixed Income research)10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Apple closed at an all-time high and the S&P 500 index ended the day above 4325 points its intra-day high from last August and so a key level for technical analysts – the focus is now on today’s US inflation release. China’s central bank in a surprise move lowered its short-term policy rate today amidst faltering growth figures – the big question is now if more stimulus is to come out of the world’s second largest economy. Manuel Villegas Next Generation Research notes that investors in crypto should expect confusion and volatility ahead as the US regulatory environment remains treacherous. 00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:36 Crypto assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

This week is a busy one with central banks around the world expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, including the US, Eurozone, Japan and China. There will also be a raft of macroeconomic data for investors to digest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to talk more about the VIX index hitting a new 3-year low and equity markets hitting a 52-week high.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)08:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The S&P 500 index in the US entered bull market territory yesterday, up 20% since its October 2022 low, on optimism that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the time being. In contrast, a rate hike in Switzerland on 22nd June appears to be a done deal, setting the Swiss franc up for a rally, especially against the US dollar, as Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, explains. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)04:49 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)08:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The Bank of Canada joined the Reserve Bank of Australia by resuming rate hikes yesterday. Following the surprise 25-basis-point hike, US Treasury bonds sold off.  India’s government bonds also sold off despite the central bank there not hiking rates, but the Sensex stock index is heading towards record highs. Japan’s government bond yields also rose following news that Japan’s economy grew an annualised 2.7% in Q1 this year, higher than the expected 1.9%. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the show to update us on the iron ore market, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides the latest thoughts from our Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:34 Iron ore update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)06:43 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:18 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Straight after the Chinese authorities asked the country’s largest banks to lower their deposit rates, China’s trade data disappointed, with both imports and exports falling. But at least there is some positive geopolitical news as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to visit China. Meanwhile, US equities enjoyed some support yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in 2023. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins today’s episode to explain why we still love IT stocks.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:24 Why we still love IT stocks by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)07:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has sued cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for US securities violations. Our Chief Economist David Kohl talks about the risk of a recession in the US, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the digital assets space. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:42 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:48 What’s the chance of a US recession? by David Kohl (Chief Economist)11:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)15:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US equities gained on Friday on the back of the deal to raise the debt ceiling and a mixed bag of economic reports that suggested the Federal Reserve would hold off on raising interest rates at its June meeting. Saudi Arabia said it would cut oil production by an additional 1 million barrels per day after the OPEC+ meeting, while Turkey has a new market-friendly finance minister. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, points out that the outperformance of US equities has continued and become more broad-based.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:24 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Although this week's employment data was generally stronger and US manufacturing remains under pressure, equities and bonds broadly rallied yesterday as the outlook for central banks pausing on interest rate hikes brightened. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about how this could affect the US dollar, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a guess as to which digital assets will dominate going forward. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:03 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:02 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)14:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The US House of Representatives passed a bill late yesterday to suspend the USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling. The bill will now pass to the Senate just days before Monday’s US default deadline. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on oil, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, shares the latest thoughts of our CIO’s Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:05 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)08:22 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

China's economic recovery weakened in May as manufacturing activity slumped, prompting investors to sell stocks and call for more stimulus to boost growth. UK business confidence fell for the first time in three months as faster-than-expected inflation figures weighed on firms' sentiment about the economy. Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research provides insight into our views on both Greek and other eurozone sovereign bonds.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:00 Greek bonds back in favour by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Futures markets have reacted with cautious optimism to the fact that President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement on a deal to raise the US debt ceiling this weekend. Nevertheless, they now face the challenge of getting the bill passed by the House of Representatives before 5th June. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Markus Allenspach, examines the deal and its economic consequences on today’s show.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:43 US debt ceiling update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The tech sector rallied strongly yesterday, while other sectors and the broader market were flat to slightly lower. This followed the upbeat outlook on AI-related demand from the US chip developer Nvidia. Meanwhile, negotiations over the US debt ceiling increase are heating up as time is running out for politicians to find a solution. And Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about where he sees opportunities in currencies and metals. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:36 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)07:01 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US ratings agency Fitch put the United States’ AAA bond rating on negative watch yesterday, saying that the debt ceiling negotiations have raised the risks that the government could miss payments on some of its obligations. The impact was felt by the major US indices which all closed lower, but Nvidia’s surprisingly good results did provide a boost to Nasdaq futures later. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, joins us to provide an update on the natural gas market, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office gives us some insights into the latest thinking of our Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:51 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:30 Natural gas update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:12 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equity markets suffer losses after continued US debt-ceiling negotiations ended without a deal yesterday. This increases the likelihood that the House and the Senate will both have to vote on a deal next week to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt obligations. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his insights into the eurozone’s latest flash purchasing managers' index data and what this means for the growth outlook.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:46 European PMIs and growth outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)10:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The US debt ceiling negotiations are still stealing the spotlight and while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and US President Joe Biden had a “productive” meeting yesterday, they have not yet reached an agreement. Markus Allenspach, our Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to explain whether he thinks a deal will be reached in time and why no-one can nail down an ‘X-date’ for when the US will actually run out of money. Hannah Wise, Business Journalist, shares how listeners can join our Beyond Markets webcast on Thursday about how to generate income in uncertain times. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:54 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:48 Update  on US debt ceiling talks by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)9:28 Details for Forthcoming Income Generation Webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of video channels)12:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The S&P 500 is at its highest level this year and the German DAX index is at an all-time high. This week, the US debt ceiling, US & eurozone interest rates, and US-China tensions are likely to be in focus. China has announced that it will ban some sales of chips from the US semiconductor company Micron Technology, even as President Biden said he expected ties with China to improve very shortly. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research, points out that there have been strong moves in the Nasdaq 100 index and the Nikkei 225 index.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:03 Technical analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)09:05 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The S&P 500 Index is trading at its highest level in 9 months and US Treasuries are falling as the likelihood of an end to the US debt ceiling impasse has increased in recent hours. This has implications for the US dollar and metals, as Tim Gagie, our Head of FX and PM solutions in Geneva, points out. And Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the latest action in crypto-land.00:14 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)06:29 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:33 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)14:39 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The S&P 500 closed down 0.6% yesterday. Comments from Federal Reserve officials on whether further interest rate hikes will be necessary in light of strong economic data releases, and the ongoing uncertainty over the debt ceiling drove equities lower. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides our view on the ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations, noting that we are working on the assumption that a last-minute deal will be reached. Richard Tang, Equity Research Asia, talks about the renewed interest in Japanese equities after Warren Buffett increased his stake in five trading companies and where Julius Baer sees the sweet spot in the Japanese equity market.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:32 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:20 Update on US debt ceiling by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:05 Japan – reopening and reform by Richard Tang (Equity Research Asia)16:34 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the US government will default on its payments by 1 June unless the debt ceiling is raised, putting pressure on Congressional Republicans and the White House to reach a deal. Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research, shares her insights into the Turkish elections and the market impact, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on the copper market.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:48 Turkish elections and market impact by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)07:19 Copper market update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:03 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stocks barely moved on Friday. President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and other congressional leaders are planning to meet on Tuesday to discuss budget negotiations in order to avoid a US government default. In the Turkish presidential election, President Erdogan failed to win a majority of the votes, leaving him with 49.3% of the votes and his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45%. Mensur Pocinci our Head of Technical Analysis provides a technical update on Chinese financial markets following the steep decline in Chinese interest rates.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:14 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

From concerns about US regional banks to the US debt-ceiling debate, the Bank of England’s interest rate hike and the raft of news from tech companies, there are plenty of headlines for investors to absorb. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, joins today’s episode to shed some light on the latest developments in currencies and metals markets, and Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategist, is here to provide an update on the earnings season.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:55 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)09:56 Earnings season update by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategist)13:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Both the US and China have announced CPI inflation data in the last 24 hours and the headline numbers showed inflation moderating. The market reaction was muted with tech stocks being the main beneficiaries; the US dollar weakened, and US Treasuries rallied. Traders are now focused on whether a solution to the US debt default possibility can be found before 1st June. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the hydrogen market, and from the CIO office, Nicolas Jordan gives us an insight into what’s currently top-of-mind for the investment committee. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:38 Hydrogen by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:45 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)12:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans have made little tangible progress in averting a first-ever US debt default, but promised negotiations that would open the door to a possible deal. Meanwhile, the ECB has to do more to bring inflation back to its 2% target, even as it waits to see the full impact of the measures taken so far. Fixed income analyst, Dario Messi provides an update on the high-yield view, and Roger Degen from the Equity Research team provides the latest news on US regional banks.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:17 Fixed Income strategy update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research Analyst)09:11 Latest on US regional banks by Roger Degen (Equity Research Analyst)14:09 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US equities ended the day little changed on Monday, despite the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Survey showing tightening credit conditions for both households and firms, as well as declining collateral values. In a sign of confidence in Apple, the company was able to tap the bond market with a bond that matures only in 2053. All eyes are now on tomorrow's US inflation report. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, discusses the rise of meme coins and what market participants should make of them.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:54 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:23 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The trading week has started on a positive note with Asia Pacific stocks trading higher on improved sentiment after a solid US labour market report and the overall better than expected earnings season. US government yields are up on the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, but our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, still believes that the overall direction of US yields is down.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:53 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:10 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)08:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)We would love to receive your feedback! Please leave us a review and star rating wherever you listen to the show. 

As if investors didn't already have enough to digest this week, with interest rate hikes from the major central banks and the ongoing earnings season, there was a fresh sell-off in US regional banks which only added to events. However, investors seemed to quickly regain their composure and this volatility just highlights the fragility of the market. With oil suffering some declines this week, Norbert Ruecker, our Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, joins today’s episode to share his view on the commodity. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:58 Update on oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)08:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The US central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range as forecast. In his statement following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave hints that the Fed could now be set to pause its current hiking cycle. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on the outlook for the US dollar, and Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts of our CIO. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:33 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)09:42 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)14:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate to 5.25% today. However, with markets pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year, all eyes will be on the Fed's statement and Jerome Powell's press conference. Yesterday's sell-off in US regional banks and the ongoing debt ceiling debate will make his comments all the more important. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, notes that US Q1 earnings are coming in better than expected, but the market reaction has been muted – one big exception: large-cap communications stocks, a sector he recently put on Overweight.00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)00:54 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:51 Earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)10:11 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

Central bank rate hike decisions are in the spotlight this week, but equity market sentiment has picked up somewhat in recent days. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his thoughts on what the markets want to hear from central banks and why the risk of a US recession has increased. And Next Generation Research's Manuel Villegas explains why he believes that regulatory action in the crypto space is set to increase.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:38 Comments on latest US data by David Kohl (Chief Economist)11:06 Digital Assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Analyst)14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

While there are fresh jitters in the banking sector, tech stocks are lifting the broader market. Meanwhile, investors are digesting yesterday’s US GDP data while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s favourite inflation gauge – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator due out later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show to give his views on how central banks are impacting FX markets and he reveals which currencies looks like good value at the moment.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)01:09 Markets wrap-up by  Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:28 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)