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Julius Baer
Moving Markets is a daily market news briefing from Julius Baer. Our experts discuss the latest market developments and put the headlines in perspective to set you up for the coming day. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
Fed indicates rate hike pace may slow, but likely to peak higher
US Federal Reserve policymakers suggest that interest rates may peak higher than anticipated, foreseeing a modestly higher path for policy compared with its stance in September. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls for robust pragmatism towards China, referring to the country as a systemic threat. And Damien Ng, Next Generation Research Analyst, talks to us about developments in the global immunotherapy industry and opportunities it presents for investors.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:03 The power of cancer immunotherapy by Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)06:03 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:5729/11/2022
Oil tumbles to its lowest since December
Protests are spreading across China over harsh anti-virus curbs. In the UK, meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing pushback from his ruling Conservatives as they try to force the government to drop a ban on new onshore wind farms. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, gives an update on the latest market moves, and Mark Mathews, Head of Research APAC, supplies more insights on the current situation in China.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)03:03 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)04:40 China by Mark Matthews (Head of Research APAC)11:05 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
11:5628/11/2022
Black Friday starts today, while Beijing goes on lockdown again
The US equity markets were closed yesterday for Thanksgiving and are only open in the morning session today. Yet, people across the US will be shopping around the clock as it is Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, while parts of Beijing are back in lockdown again due to the country’s Covid policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the recent weakness in the USD. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, takes a closer look at the continuing fallout from the crypto exchange FTX, but also highlights some positive trends. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:38 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)06:41 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:31 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
10:3325/11/2022
The US Federal Reserve hinted at a moderate pace of interest rate hikes
The US Federal Reserve signalled that it is leaning towards downshifting to a 50 basis points rate hike in December. In Asia, meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party indicated further monetary stimulus, including a likely cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update copper and metals, and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis provides insights on the latest Investment Committee meeting. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:52 Copper & metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)05:59 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)07:52 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
08:5024/11/2022
Domino effect feared as crypto contagion intensifies
Credit Suisse is cutting at least a third of its investment banking workforce in China as part of the bank’s cost-cutting plans. And the ongoing crypto crisis shows no signs of abating, with fears of contagion continuing to spread throughout the crypto world. Dario Messi, Investment Research, talks about US fixed income and his view on the rising risk of a recession. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:20 US fixed income - Positioning for rising recession risk by Dario Messi (Investment Research Analyst)06:51 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
07:5023/11/2022
Stocks mixed as China’s Covid infections climb to a near record
The sentiment is fragile in Asia after China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record. It is said local authorities may possibly re-introduce strict measures, despite the new directives from authorities over a week ago, that marked an easing in the official zero-Covid playbook. Guy Bettschart, Equity Analyst, shares insights on our longstanding Overweight call on Healthcare equities. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)03:00 Healthcare equities by Guy Bettschart (Equities Research)05:26 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
06:2322/11/2022
China’s Covid worries drag markets down
Markets are mostly down today after China reported its first Covid deaths in almost six months, sparking fears of new lockdown measures in the country. This week is traditionally quiet due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, but there will be a focus on the FOMC minutes which are released on Wednesday as these may offer some new insights. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about what the charts are telling us.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)02:56 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)03:58 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:5221/11/2022
Equity markets take a breather after James Bullard’s speech
The St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, suggested in a speech yesterday that policymakers should raise interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25% - this likely contributed to all the major markets in the US ending the day in the red yesterday, and all except the DAX following suit in Europe. In the UK, Jeremy Hunt announced the Autumn Statement, and in Japan, core inflation for October reached a 40-year high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, updates us on currencies. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)02:53 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)05:54 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head FX&PM Solutions Geneva)07:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
08:5618/11/2022
Markets rattled by single stock news
Both the US and Asian stock markets were upended by micro news overnight. In the US, it was Target that rattled investors by announcing that sales were down as shoppers grappled with higher inflation heading into a peak shopping season. US retail sales data however painted a different picture coming in 0.3% higher than expected in October. In Asia, an announcement from Tencent that it will divest USD 20 billion in Meituan shares caused markets to sell off. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, updates us on his expectations for the energy markets, whilst Nicolas Jordan updates us on the CIO view. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)02:52 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Macro & Next Generation Research)05:55 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
10:1217/11/2022
US equities rise, but geopolitical concerns resurface again
A softer than expected increase in US producer price prices for October gave US equities another boost. However, geopolitical concerns are weighing on sentiment this morning after a missile is reported to have struck land in Poland near the Ukraine border. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research speaks about the broadening opportunity set in fixed income following the rise in real bond yields this year.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:00 New fixed-income strategy calls by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:45 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
08:1716/11/2022
US/China leaders meet again
At the G-20 summit in Bali, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met face-to-face for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The meeting ran about three hours, and showed signs of reduced US-China tensions. David Meier, Economics Research, gives an update on the EUR/USD currency pair, and why we believe the dollar has likely peaked. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)03:20 FX update (EURUSD) by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)06:14 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
07:0815/11/2022
China is making fresh attempts to boost its ailing economy
Asian equities advanced to their highest level in two months on the back of China’s policy shifts on Zero Covid and the property sector. Democrats will keep control of the US Senate after its candidate for the US Senate for the State of Nevada is all but certain to have won the contest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a look at market dynamics after the strong moves last week, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives his insights on the latest developments in China.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)03:35 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)05:23 China – double pivot by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)11:05 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
12:0314/11/2022
Lower than expected US inflation and a subtle shift in China’s zero-Covid policy fire up markets
Equities rallied, the USD fell, and bond yields plunged following a report that US inflation rose less than expected in October. This morning, a subtle shift in China’s zero-Covid policy towards more targeted and scientific implementation is adding fuel to Asian equities. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about gold, which has rallied sharply from mid-week lows. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, provides a comprehensive sector-by-sector overview of this year’s Q3 earnings releases.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:07 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)06:41 Earning season update by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)13:36 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
14:3511/11/2022
Investors waiting for consumer price data today
While the race for the US Senate is still open and it may be days or even weeks before the results are final, US President Joe Biden said that the Democrats had exceeded expectations and that he intends to run for a second term. Today, all eyes are on the latest consumer price data from the US, which will offer some clues on the path of future Fed tightening. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains what has been happening in the crypto world this week and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis reports on the latest decisions from our Investment Committee.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:59 Digital Assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)07:25 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:57 Dividends from a portfolio context by Arian Osmani (Traditional Fund Specialist)12:45 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
13:4210/11/2022
US Midterm results and upcoming inflation numbers in the spotlight
While all eyes are on the results of the US Midterm elections rolling-in, it could still take a while until final results are declared. Markets will soon focus on tomorrow’s US inflation figures, which are expected to drop slightly. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Research, shares his take aways on the Midterms and their impact on markets, and Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about the strong moves in FX and metals markets.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)03:47 US Midterm results – initial assessment on market impact by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)06:12 FX/commodities update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)09:58 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
10:0509/11/2022
Markets brace ahead of potential gridlock in US midterms
Former US President Donald Trump plans to make a “big announcement” next week, indicating that he intends to run for President in 2024. China is experiencing an increase in coronavirus infections, reporting 7,323 new local Covid-19 cases, as it staunchly defends its zero-Covid policy. And David Meier, Senior Economist, gives us a preview of what we can expect from today’s eagerly awaited US midterm elections.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:28 US Midterms preview by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)06:53 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
07:4908/11/2022
China signals no change in its zero-Covid stance
Whilst speculation mounted about China’s re-opening story, Chinese officials vowed over the weekend to remain “unswervingly” strict in Beijing’s approach to stamping out the coronavirus. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update on markets from a technical perspective. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights on China’s potential easing of the zero-Covid stance and how it might impact the country’s long-term economic outlook.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)03:23 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:17 China – loosening of Covid restrictions? By Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)10:49 Closing remark by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
11:4407/11/2022
US interest rates are moving higher, so are China stocks this week
US market sentiment was subdued following the big Fed-day on Wednesday, while the Bank of England delivered its largest rate hike in 33 years. China shares are on course for their best week since 2015 on continued speculation that the nation will start relaxing its zero-Covid policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, takes a closer look at what drives currency markets this week with a special focus on today’s employment report. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, compares bitcoin (miners) with gold (miners) and shows the differences, but also highlights similarities. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:33 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 07:28 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head FX&PM Solutions Geneva)10:18 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
11:1804/11/2022
BoE expected to follow the Fed with jumbo rate hike
Yesterday evening saw all eyes once again on the US Federal Reserve, when it announced its fourth consecutive rate hike of 0.75%. Today is the Bank of England’s turn, and it is expected to follow suit. We hear from David Meier, Senior Economist, with his thoughts on the outcome of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, from Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, on precious metals, and from Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, with an update on the latest Investment Committee discussions.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:11 FOMC meeting by David Meier (Economic Research)06:48 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:36 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)13:11 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
14:0303/11/2022
Don’t expect any miracles from the Fed
In China, equity markets rallied as investors there entertained the prospect that the zero-Covid policy might be dropped but at the same time the area around Foxconn Technology’s group has been put into a 7-day lockdown, which will drastically curtail shipments in and out of the world’s largest iPhone factory. US equity markets fell yesterday, the dollar faltered and 2-year Treasury yields rose – all in anticipation of another 75 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later on today. Dario Messi joins us from Fixed Income Research to share his thoughts on what to expect from the Fed (there’s a clue in the title).00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)04:27 Fed preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
08:2302/11/2022
Markets taking a breather before Fed-Day on Wednesday; Asia pushes higher
US markets took a breather yesterday, after a couple of strong trading days last week. While today’s trading action will be overshadowed by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision tomorrow, Asian stock markets are rallying on speculation to an end of the Covid-Zero policy in China. Nenad Dinic, from our Research’s Equity Strategy team, shares his thoughts on the outcome of the Brazilian Presidential elections and what that means for financial markets going forward.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:28 Brazilian elections by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)09:52 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
10:5201/11/2022
US stocks rise for the second consecutive week
US equity markets all made solid gains on Friday and 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose for the first time in four days. Wheat futures have surged today after Russia has withdrawn from the Black Sea corridor agreement and in Brazil’s presidential election, the left-wing former president Lula da Silva has beaten the far-right incumbent Bolsonaro. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)04:25 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
08:1031/10/2022
Top-down macro and bottom-up company results are moving markets today
Shares are falling in Asia after disappointing results from US tech giants Meta and Alphabet, while the Bank of Japan does not move an inch on its ultra-low interest rate policy. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, notes that the ECB is clearly focused on the inflation battle, but he explains why we have a below consensus view on future interest rate hikes. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, sees digital assets moving from crypto crisis to crypto calm, but it’s too early to argue for a rapid rebound as bottom-up crypto-specific factors have not turned favourable (yet).00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:14 ECB interest rate decision by David Meier (Macro and Next Generation Research)07:44 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)11:24 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
12:2128/10/2022
Credit Suisse reports Q3 loss of 4 billion Swiss francs
Credit Suisse posted a disastrous loss of CHF 4 bn in its Q3 results, hugely below the average estimate of CHF 413m. The disappointing results come as the bank is preparing a sweeping restructuring overhaul and is said to be in advanced talks with a group including heavyweights Apollo and Pimco, who are interested in buying the bank’s securitised products business. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives an update on energy, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, provides an update from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:00 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro and Next Generation Research)06:25 Latest CIO views by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:11 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
09:4327/10/2022
Chinese central bank seeks to bolster investor confidence
Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extended their rebound from their historic rout earlier this week, as authorities sought to bolster investor confidence in one of the worst-performing markets this year. Rishi Sunak is under criticism for reappointing a number of scandal-plagued former ministers to senior government positions. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, gives an earnings season update.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:44 Earnings season update by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equities Research)06:24 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
07:2226/10/2022
Xi Jinping and Rishi Sunak … in with the old, in with the new
US stock markets rallied yesterday but Asian markets couldn’t quite make their minds up, underscoring investor nervousness following China’s twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress and the announcement that President Xi Jinping remains in power. Rishi Sunak will become the UK’s new prime minister after meeting with the King today. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on what Mr Sunak’s government needs to do now and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong provides his insights into what to expect from China’s ‘new’ cabinet.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:23 UK politics by David Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)07:16 Chinese National People’s Congress by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)12:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
13:3725/10/2022
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index spirals
After the end of the party Congress in China, big falls in Hong Kong stocks and mainland China markets today have seen the Hang Seng index drop to its lowest levels since April 2009. There have been big swings in the yen amid signs of another intervention from the Japanese authorities. And after Boris Johnson withdraws from the Conservative party leadership race in the UK, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt are left to battle it out, with Sunak the current frontrunner. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)04:02 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
07:5524/10/2022
US equity markets fail to extend an early rally – and end the day near lows
Traders were probably less surprised about Liz Truss’s political exit than herself. However, this morning, it is economic data, which weigh on the British pound. Yields in the US are back at levels last seen during the financial crisis and European yields are expected to catch up. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his views on the latest moves in FX and metals markets.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)04:32 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)07:08 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
08:0921/10/2022
Equity market rally stalls and US Treasury yields surge
The equity market rally seen earlier in the week stalled yesterday and 2 and 10-year US Treasury yields climbed 13 basis points amid fears of a global slowdown. The Japanese Yen is inching towards the psychological barrier of 150 relative to the US dollar, so investors are watching closely for further intervention to support the currency. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:49 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)06:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
07:4620/10/2022
Strong earnings boost stocks
Earnings reports in the US fuelled the rally overnight but the story was more mixed in Asian trading. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy explains why he favours software in the IT space, and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research joins us to reveal whether or not emerging market bond yields are just too attractive to ignore.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:36 Our focus in the IT space by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)05:39 Emerging markets bond yields: too attractive to ignore? By Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
09:4519/10/2022
Will the global rally continue today?
The global stock market started the week with a big rally, which saw the Nasdaq Composite Index rise 3.4%. Reasons for the rally were the solid earnings reports so far that offer a largely rosy view of the US consumer, as well as the news that Jeremy Hunt, the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, will reverse nearly all announced tax cuts and wind back energy subsidies. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, provides us with an update on China’s green ambitions.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:53 Update on China’s green ambitions by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)09:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
09:5418/10/2022
China's Communist Party signalled no change in direction
At the 20th national party congress, President Xi Jinping indicated no change in course for the two major risk factors weighing on the Chinese economy. Liz Truss is fighting for her premiership this week, when financial markets will render a new verdict on her economic reset. Mensur Pocinsi, head of Technical Analysis, gives a technical update and Ronny Kaufmann from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis gives an IC meeting update.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:47 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)05:31 IC meeting by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 10:36 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
11:3417/10/2022
A rather unexpected market rally
Following the higher-than-expected US inflation figures, US stocks initially plunged but then rallied, which improved the overall risk appetite and boosted other equity markets around the world. Now investors are turning their attention to the earnings season with the big US banks being the first to report their Q3 results today. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his take on the US inflation data, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, takes a closer look at currencies and metals.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:46 US inflation and impact on the Fed’s tightening path by David Kohl (Chief Economist)08:12 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)11:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
11:5414/10/2022
Today, it’s US inflation day
The S&P 500 is at its lowest level since November 2020; the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting show that it is committed to raising rates to restrictive levels; and Germany reported that inflation rose 10% in the 12-months ending September. This sets the stage for the all-important US inflation report due out later today, which is likely to drive market action today, and maybe even in the weeks to come. Roberto Cominotto, Equities Research, speaks on why he thinks European automobile stocks are worth taking a closer look at now, even if there are concerns about a recession looming around the corner.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:10 Automobile stocks by Roberto Cominotto (Investment Research Analyst)06:05 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
07:0613/10/2022
Bank of England sticks to its guns whilst markets wait for earnings to kick off
Stock markets continue to suffer in the face of inflation and recession risks but the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen insists that the US economy is doing “very well”. The Bank of England publicly said it would buy more bonds but only until Friday. Privately, however, it’s reported that they will extend the deadline. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy shares his thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and suggests that the focus should be on Q4 and 2023 guidance.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)04:03 Earnings season by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)06:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
07:3312/10/2022
Markets remain fragile before US inflation prints – semiconductor sector under pressure
Despite a slight change of tone coming from the Federal Reserve, US bond markets remain under pressure and yields have climbed further over the past hours. The US administration’s decision to curb China’s access to US semiconductor technology weighed heavily on the sector worldwide. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his views on the latest US labor report and Sophie Altermatt from Macro and Next Generation Research talks about what to expect from the upcoming National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)04:20 US labour market update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)08:00 China party congress by Sophie Altermatt (Investment Research Analyst)11:32 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
12:3211/10/2022
United States imposed new restrictions on China
Chinese semiconductor stocks are falling after the United States imposed new restrictions on China's access to American technology. Liz Truss is preparing for battle with her ruling Conservative Party in a bid to quash any attempt at rebellion just one month into her UK premiership. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, gives a technical update.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:48 Chart insights by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)05:21 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
06:2110/10/2022
A more orderly week – but US payroll data have the potential to stir it up
A drumbeat of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept stocks on the back foot, after a strong rally earlier this week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his latest insights on the markets. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on digital assets with a focus on the city of Lugano embracing tokens as a form of payment.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)03:25 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)05:25 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:24 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
09:2007/10/2022
Risk-on rules the markets
Despite higher-than-expected US PMI services readings, stocks managed to claw back almost all of the losses through the trading session yesterday. The OPEC+’s announcement of a massive oil production cut provided tailwinds for oil and gas shares. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on the latest moves in silver.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)03:56 Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)06:39 Investment Committee Update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:54 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
11:3206/10/2022
Stock markets rally and Musk makes his move
Stock markets rallied in the US and those parts of Asia that were open overnight, as a weakening in the most recent US job openings data prompted some investors to consider whether the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Amidst this, Elon Musk went back to the SEC to say that he will buy Twitter at the agreed price after all. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, shares his thoughts on the current bond market moves and warns that volatility is the only constant.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)04:12 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:34 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
08:0405/10/2022
Markets rebound amid greater optimism
Following the worst September in two decades, markets are rebounding. Oil is surging on indications that the OPEC+ alliance is considering cutting production by over 1 million barrels a day to help prop up plunging prices. David Meier, Senior Economist, shares his latest insights on the UK macroeconomic situation.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:13 Update on UK macro policy by David Meier (Senior Economist)08:26 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
08:5804/10/2022
S&P 500 is down three quarters in a row
US and European inflation data released on Friday surprised to the upside and Nike shares fell the most in 20 years. Oil is back up as there are reports that OPEC+ countries will cut oil production by one million barrels. The pound is up as the UK government will not cut its top income tax rate. And Brazil is off to a run-off election to be held on 30 October. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis, speaks about the volatility across financial assets and the bearish tone with US equities breaking through June lows. 00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:31 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)07:20 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
07:5203/10/2022
Markets down on Federal Reserve news and the great pound rebound
Stocks ended the day another leg lower yesterday after US Federal Reserve speakers reiterated their strong will to raise rates further, despite increasing volatility on financial markets and clear signs of slowing growth. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his views on currencies and metals markets, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a clear view on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and the latest developments in the field.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)03:24 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)05:48 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:58 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
09:3430/09/2022
BOE triggers a global rally in government debt
The Bank of England’s intervention to buy an unlimited amount of long-dated bonds triggered record gains for government debt. Stocks in the US also posted their best day since early August. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his latest insights on the energy markets. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives an update on the latest CIO views. 00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)03:29 Energy markets/Nord Stream by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)07:01 IC Strategy update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:51 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
11:2429/09/2022
Stock markets decline as US treasury yields and the US dollar soar
Global stock markets continue to sell off whilst the US dollar strengthens further and US Treasury yields hit new highs. The IMF has called the UK’s proposed tax cuts excessive and suggested that they re-evaluate them. The European Commission President says that the Nord Stream leaks are an act of sabotage. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his thoughts on the current bond market moves with a specific focus on Switzerland.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)04:04 Swiss franc rates by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)08:09 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
08:4528/09/2022
Markets jittery following rollercoaster ride for the pound
Markets jittery following rollercoaster ride for the pound The UK government's pledge to continue with more tax cuts caused the pound to plunge nearly 5% to a historic low yesterday. And there is growing speculation among investors that the pound could soon fall to parity with the US dollar or even beyond. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, provides his analysis on the outcome of the Italian general election and David Meier, Senior Economist, gives an update on the drop in the British pound.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:28 Italian elections by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)08:41 Sterling’s drop by David Meier (Senior Economist)13:32 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
14:0227/09/2022
The pound plunges almost 5% to a record low overnight
The UK government's pledge to continue with more tax cuts has caused the pound to plunge nearly 5% to a historic low. Giorgia Meloni, who earned a resounding victory in the Italian election held on Sunday, is poised to become the nation's first female prime minister. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, gives a technical update and Tim Gagie our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva provides a currencies and metals update.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)03:15 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:16 Currencies and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)09:18 Closing remarks by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)
09:5226/09/2022
Central banks continue to hike rates, apart from the Bank of Japan
Equity markets across the US and Europe ended the day in the red yesterday. Central Bank meetings continued: the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and then announced they were intervening in an attempt to stop the slide of the yen; the Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and the Bank of England all announced rate hikes. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, also shares his latest thoughts on digital assets.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)04:11 Digital Assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)07:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
08:1023/09/2022
The Fed delivered the clearest signal yet
The US Federal Reserve is willing to tolerate a recession as a necessary trade-off for regaining control over inflation. The US central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row, leaving the Federal Funds Rate between 3% and 3.25%. It also forecast a further tightening of 1.25 percentage points by the end of the year. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his view on gold and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office provides an update on this week’s Investment Committee meeting.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:34 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)05:09 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)08:55 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
09:3022/09/2022
It’s (nearly) all about the Fed
US and Asian equity markets are lower and US Treasury yields remain at mutli-year highs ahead of the rate decision of the US Federal Reserve this evening. Market expectations are for a third consecutive 75 basis point hike. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, fills us in on bond markets movements as well as expectations not only for the Fed announcement today but also what the Swiss National Bank may deliver tomorrow.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:03 Central banks and fixed income by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:29 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
07:5921/09/2022