Duke finance professor Cam Harvey, the father of the yield curve as a prescient predictor of future recession, weighs in on what the curve is saying about recession in the coming year.  You will be surprised.  Mark and Cris were.Full episode transcript hereFor more on Cam Harvey, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Bill Spriggs, Chief Economist of AFL-CIO, joins the podcast and shares his views that we need to be patient on inflation, it's not the result of an overly tight labor market but to temporary forces, and thus does not require aggressive Fed rate hikes. He also dissects President Biden's industrial policy.Full episode transcript hereFor more on Bill Spriggs, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark, Cris, and Marisa answer questions from their recent U.S. Economic Outlook webinar where they discussed that the economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat, but the Moody's Analytics baseline forecast-the most-likely outlook-holds that the economy will avoid a downturn.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Colleague, Bernard Yaros joins the podcast to help unpack the January CPI Report (which just happened to be released on Valentine's Day) and discuss their biggest inflation concerns, including Marisa's shockingly high gas bill. Bernard gives a rundown of the U.S. Treasury outlook with regards to the debt limit.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Chris Herbert, Managing Director at Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the housing market, from the current housing recession to the outlook for homeownership.Go Eagles!Full Episode TranscriptFor more on Chris Herbert, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight 

Colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast for another round of Job's Friday. The group dissects the January report, which included a shockingly large increase in jobs and a 53-year low unemployment rate. Everyone's probability of recession in the next 12-18 months appear to be trending downward. Including Cris!Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark and Cris welcome Matthew Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, and colleague Gaurav Ganguly, to discuss climate change and Matthew's optimistic view on adaptation to global temperature rise.Full Episode TranscriptFor more from Matthew Kahn follow him on twitter: @mattkahn1966Recommended Reads:Adapting to Climate ChangeClimate Change AdaptationClimatopolisWhat will Climate Change Cost YouClimatopolis RevisitedFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight 

The Q4 GDP Report has been released and Mark, Cris, and Marisa analyze the weirdness surrounding the data. Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, joins the podcast to give a European perspective and Mark continues his domination in the statistics game.Full episode transcriptTo learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

We welcome Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School to discuss what could potentially be a catastrophic default of the national debt. We'll get into President Biden's economic policies, inflation, and recession over the next 12-18 months. Jason came to play with some humor, positivity, and a great stat.Full episode transcriptTo learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark, Cris, and Marisa are joined by David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings, to dissect the CPI report, and discuss Fed policy, prospects for recession, and the looming threat of a debt limit breach.Full episode transcript.Come join us at the Moody’s Analytics Summit, March 5th-7th at the Phoenician in Scottsdale Arizona.To learn more & register, click here:  Moody's Analytics Summit 2023. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

It's job's Friday and Mark argues the labor market is cooling off according to script. Colleagues Dante DeAntonio and Marisa DiNatale provide the details. And Cris fine-tunes his definition of the best way to describe the economy's performance in the year ahead - "Slowcession".Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

To kick off the new year, Mark, Cris, and Marisa share their U.S. economic outlooks for 2023. Which sectors are at risk? Will the Fed tip us in? We discuss the full gamut and introduce a new segment where we take listeners' questions.Full Episode TranscriptMark's Slowcession paper.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Colleague, Scott Hoyt, joins to discuss where the American consumer stands and how that differs by income group. A shrinking savings rate and sputtering retail sales won't break the American consumer or Mark's good mood. The group differs on the odds of recession, but is in agreement a slowcession is underway. Happy Holidays to all our listeners.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Greg Jensen, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Bridgewater Associates, Mark and the team this week. We get into the causes and outlook for inflation and prospects for the economy and financial markets. Greg shares his dark forecast with the group.Full Episode TranscriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Justin Wolfers, Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan, joins the podcast to discuss inflation, monetary policy, and prospects for recession next year. Are we being too pessimistic when so much is going well with the U.S. economy? Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark and Cris welcome back colleague, Dante DeAntonio of Moody's Analytics, to analyze the November U.S. Employment Report. Is the jobs market moderating? Depends who you ask.Full episode transcript.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab and Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at EIG, discuss the state of remote work and the economic implications.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab and Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at EIG, join the podcast to provide a labor market outlook.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark, Cris, and Marisa discuss the yield curve and give their latest recession odds. They also welcome back colleagues, Gaurav Ganguly, Chris Lafakis, and Bernard Yaros of Moody's Analytics, to examine the challenges of climate change and the impact on the U.S. economy.Full episode transcriptMark, Chris, and Bernard's paper, The Macroeconomic Cost of Climate InactionFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark and Cris break down the October CPI Report and the latest on inflation. Colleagues, Dan White and Emily Mandel of Moody's Analytics, join the podcast to give a rundown of the midterm election results and the economic implications.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark and the team dissect October's employment report, the Fed's most recent rate hike, and what it all means for the prospects for a recession in the coming year. Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Mark Obrinsky, Chief Economist for the National Multifamily Housing Council, joins the podcast and gives a detailed housing outlook. Topics include rent growth, housing shortage, and the impact of inflation on the housing market. Mark and Cris also welcome Marisa DiNatale as the new co-host of Inside Economics.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight 

On Ryan's final episode of Inside Economics, John Leer, Chief Economist of Morning Consult, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the economy, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and the potential early signs of a wage-price spiral. Full episode transcript.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Aaron Klein, Miriam K. Carliner Chair and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss stress points in the global financial system, the conditions for a financial crisis, and whether central banks are going to break something. Full episode transcript.Follow  @aarondklein on twitterFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight. 

Colleague Marisa DiNatale, Director Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark and Cris to breakdown the September Consumer Price Index Report. They also discuss the impact of inflation on energy prices, food prices, the housing market, and wage growth.Full episode transcript.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight. 

Colleague Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics joins the podcast to analyze the September U.S. Employment Report and OPEC's announcement to cut oil production. Everyone gives their latest odds of a recession and how soon that could happen. Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris breakdown this week's key economic data and developments in financial markets. They also go through the economic impact of Hurricane Ian and the policy errors that are unfolding in the U.K. and ironically where Mark records the podcast from.Full episode transcript.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome colleague Dan White of Moody's Analytics and Bill Glasgall, Senior Director, Public Finance at the Volcker Alliance, to discuss state and local government finances and whether it will be a tailwind or drag on the broader economy.Full Episode transcript.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.William Glasgall is senior director, public finance at the Volcker Alliance, a New York-based nonprofit organization where he has supervised the publication of numerous working papers and studies, including four Truth and Integrity in State Budgeting reports. He is also the creator of the Special Briefing webcast series and podcast, co-produced with the University of Pennsylvania Institute for Urban Research, where he is a fellow.Be sure to check out Volcker Alliance’s new podcast “Special Briefing” hosted by William Glasgall available here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts,

Mark, Cris, and Ryan sit down for their first in-person podcast to discuss their recession odds over the next 6,12, or 18 months. They list out both contributing and mitigating risk factors and the market signals to watch to understand where the economy is headed.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.Watch the video of the in-person episode.

Janice Stanton, Executive Managing Director at Cushman and Wakefield and Victor Calanog, head of CRE at Moody's Analytics join the podcast to share their views in Commercial Real Estate and how it impacts the U.S. economy. Mark, Cris, and Ryan discuss recent developments in financial markets and the latest decision by the Fed. Full episode transcriptMore Info on Janice Stanton:Ms. Stanton is an Executive Managing Director in the Capital Markets group at C&W. She is responsible for advising global investors on the real estate investment markets. Ms. Stanton has more than 25 years of industry experience in real estate investment research and analytics, finance, and pension fund management.More info on Victor Calanog:Dr. Calanog is the Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He and his team of economists and analysts are responsible for the firm’s commercial real estate market forecasting, valuation, and portfolio analytics services. For more on the long-term impacts to the built environment if remote and hybrid work models continue, check out the Future of Work research hub.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Nick Bunker, Research Director of Indeed, joins the podcast to share his views on the the U.S. labor market, including unemployment, job openings, quits, and remote work. Nick stumps Mark, Cris, and Ryan in the statistics game. Full transcriptFollow Nick Bunker on twitter @Nick_Bunker. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Doug Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum, joins the podcast to provide his take on the U.S. economy, inflation, employment, and GDP. The big topic fiscal policy while everyone provides their odds of a recession.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Two colleagues and regulars on Inside Economics, Marisa DiNatale and Dante DeAntonio, join Mark, Cris, and Ryan to breakdown the August U.S. Employment Report and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Due to a bad wifi connection, Mark is forced to participate all episode by cell phone.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight. 

In this bonus episode Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss all aspects of stagflation, including the definition, the causes, and what they're watching to assess the risk of this scenario.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark and Cris welcome back Wayne Best, Chief Economist of Visa, to give the latest American Consumer outlook, including the topics of excess savings, spending behavior and categories, credit trends, and interest rates. They also discuss President Biden's student loan proposal.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark and Cris welcome Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Senior Resident Fellow for the Climate and Energy program at Third Way, to discuss her views on climate risk in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and her outlook on the vehicle industry.Full TranscriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris kick off this episode by discussing inflation and the latest CPI Report. For the second part, they welcome John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to give a detailed U.S. housing market outlook, that includes the topics of mortgage rates, the potential threat of a housing crash, and the affordable housing shortage.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan and Cris welcome colleagues, Marisa DiNatale and Dante DeAntonio, to dig deep into the July U.S. employment report. They also discuss what the new data tells us about a recession, productivity and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark and Cris welcome Alan Blinder, Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University, to discuss the prospects for recession, inflation, monetary policy and financial conditions.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome colleague, Scott Hoyt, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, to dissect the state of American consumers and how they are the firewall to avoiding a U.S. recession.Full Episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan and Cris are joined by a bevy of colleagues to dig deeper into the June Consumer Price Index report and the sources of inflation, including energy, vehicles, food and shelter. Full Episode TranscriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-at-Home Macro Consulting, joins Mark and Ryan to discuss the June employment report. They also talk about inflation, monetary policy, and the odds of a recession.Full episode transcript.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, joins the podcast to examine the economic state of Europe and if they are headed into a recession. The gang also discusses the latest GDP release, recession odds, and beer of choice. Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Julia Coronado, President and Founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins the podcast to discuss whether we can talk ourselves into a recession, the mixed messages on consumer sentiment and what the odds a downturn are. She also crushes the statistics game. Full Episode TranscriptFor more from Julia Coronado, follow her @jc_econFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Anna Stansbury, assistant professor of work and organization studies at the MIT Sloan School of Management, joins the podcast to discuss the lack of diversity in the economics profession. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting is debated and the discussion goes off the music sheet!?! (Zandism)Full Episode TranscriptFor more from Anna Stansbury, follow her @annastansbury Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Sheila Bair, Member of Banking Advisory Group and former Chair of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, joins the podcast to discuss the policy response to the Great Recession, concerns about today's U.S. economy, including student debt. Student Loan Debt CalculatorFor more from Sheila Bair follow her @SheilaBair2013Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris work overtime on a Saturday to break down the Consumer Price Index Report.Full episode transcriptFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight. 

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the May U.S. Employment Report. They also debate whether the economy is strong or weak and if it's possible we can talk ourselves into a recession.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis on LinkedIn for additional insight.