Putin erróneamente creyó que podría abrirse paso a través de una Blitzkrieg hasta Kyiv, y que las tropas rusas serían recibidas como libertadores. Occidente ahora también cree, erróneamente, que puede sobrevivir a la determinación rusa en un tema central de seguridad en su “extranjero cercano”. Todas las naciones tienen intereses, capacidades, y limitaciones.

Putin erroneously believed that he could blitzkrieg his way to Kyiv and that Russian troops would be welcomed as liberators. The West now too mistakenly believes that they can outlast Russia’s determination on a core security issue in its near abroad. All nations have interests, capabilities, and constraints.

Mientras los mercados lidiaban con la guerra en Ucrania y la postura cada vez más agresiva de los bancos centrales, el segundo trimestre del año resultó ser tan volátil y angustiante para los inversionistas como el primero. Dos de los principales índices accionarios, el MSCI All World Country Index y el S&P 500 entraron brevemente en terreno bajista, registrando pérdidas de -22.5% y -23% a mediados de junio, antes de exhibir pequeños rallies en la segunda mitad del mes...

As markets grappled with the ongoing war in Ukraine and increasingly hawkish global central banks, the second quarter of the year proved no less volatile and nerve-wracking for investors than the first. Two of the most universally watched global equity indices, the MSCI All Country World Index and the S&P 500, briefly fell into bear market territory, posting losses of -22.5% and -23% in the middle of June before staging mini rallies in the second half of the month...

Repercussions of food inflation in Latin America

Repercusiones de la inflación de alimentos en América Latina

Navegando la volatilidad del mercado

Navigating Market Volatility.

El mundo ha cambiado dramáticamente desde la última vez que nos reunimos. Nuestras proyecciones también se han alterado como respuesta a este cambiante panorama, que ha llegado antes de lo que esperábamos. Si la invasión rusa a Ucrania se siente muy acelerada luego de la pandemia, es porque así lo es. Esto está en línea con ocasiones anteriores, ya que las crisis tienden a generar más disten- siones cada vez que los sistemas complejos se enfrentan a nuevos equilibrios.

The world has changed dramatically since we last convened. Our projections have similarly been altered in response to this shifting global landscape, which has arrived sooner than we expected. If the Russian invasion of Ukraine feels to have come quickly on the heels of the Covid pandemic, it seems this way because it has. This is in line with historical precedent as crises tend to beget further dislocations whenever complex systems stumble unto new equilibria.

Ahmed Riesgo, as Insigneo’s CIO, oversees all the company’s research and investment functions. This includes investment strategy, devising and implementing the firm’s global market views and asset allocation, communicating them to its clients and the public, and managing the firm’s model portfolios.

Join our #QuarterlyConferenceCall on the outlook for the global economy and markets. We will address our outlook for the first quarter of 2022 for global assets, #LatinAmerica, and tackle big themes like #Balancedportfolios #China and #BigTech in the #US and #China.

Únase a nuestra #QuarterlyConferenceCall sobre las perspectivas de la economía y los mercados mundiales. Abordaremos nuestra perspectiva para el primer trimestre de 2022 para los activos globales, #AméricaLatina, y abordaremos grandes temas como #CarterasEquilibradas #China y #BigTech en los #EEUU y #China.

Market Commentary - November 2021

Comentarios de Mercado - Noviembre 2021: de LATAM y los efectos de la inflacion transitoria.

Escuche nuestra llamada trimestral (cuarto trimestre): Ahmed Riesgo, director de inversiones de Insigneo, comparte las perspectivas de la economía y los mercados mundiales. Abordamos nuestra perspectiva para el último trimestre de 2021 para los activos globales, América Latina, y grandes temas como las monedas de reserva y las grandes tecnologías en los EE. UU. Y China.

Listen in on our Quarterly Call (Q4) - Ahmed Riesgo, Chief Investment Officer at Insigneo shares the outlook for the global economy and markets. We address our outlook for the last quarter of 2021 for global assets, Latin America, and tackle big themes like reserve currencies and Big Tech in the US and China.

Lately, the political cliché of Afghanistan being the “graveyard of empires” has been thrown around quite wantonly. The political enemies of President Biden – both foreign and domestic – have alluded to the failed British excursions during the mid- and late-Nineteenth century, and the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 as historical precursors to this century’s failed American vicennium intervention. But as with all historical analogies, the devil is in the details rather than the trope.

Últimamente, el cliché político de que Afganistán sea el “cementerio de los imperios” se ha difundido de manera bastante desenfrenada. Los enemigos políticos del presidente Biden – tanto en el ámbito internacional como en el local – han aludido a las expediciones británicas durante la mitad y el final del siglo XIX, así como la salida de la Unión Soviética en 1989 como precursores históricos de la fallida intervención estadounidense de los primeros veinte años de este siglo. Pero como ocurre con todas las analogías históricas, el problema está en los detalles más que en los símbolos.

La respuesta es, depende". Es un mercado híbrido que exhibe características EM y DM. Al modelar las acciones, las acciones chinas se comportan mucho más como los mercados emergentes, especialmente en los casos en que las decisiones políticas importan más que los fundamentos de la empresa o la industria ... Escuche este episodio para obtener más información.

Insigneo Monthly Commentary - August - English The answer is “it depends”. It is a hybrid market exhibiting both EM and DM characteristics. When modeling equities, Chinese stocks behave much more like emerging markets, especially in cases where policy decisions matter more than company or industry fundamentals... Listen to this episode to find out more.

A submarine’s military effectiveness has always depended on its ability to remain submerged and undetected. Surprisingly, the earliest vessels operated blindly under the sea, and until the twentieth century the only way for one to see was by surfacing. Of course, this revealed the submarine’s location to nearby vessels and conceded its invisibility. Since 1903, however, naval submarines have used a tubular optical instrument known as a periscope to get a look at their surroundings. To do so, they would ascend to approximately 60 feet below the surface, deploy their periscope, assess the field of view, and then quickly descend beyond the reach of surface vessels. While at periscope depth, the submarine surrendered some maneuverability and tactical ability for the sea level surface information. This was a well understood trade-off.

Given that current and forward EPS estimates were cratering in 2020 due to the pandemic and subse-quent shutdowns, there is little doubt that much of the S&P 500’s rapid ascent last year was due to an expanding multiple. The US 10-year touched a cyclical and all-time low of 0.50% back in August. The equity risk premium, which refers to the excess return that investing in stocks provides over the risk-free rate, made equities very attractive because sovereign bonds were so unattractive. In other words, it was not so much that equities were cheap, it was that the alternatives were very expensive. Indeed, the world looked quite grim during the depths of the pandemic.