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Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.
Saule Omarova on Emergency Fiscal Facilities and the Missing Architecture of Government Finance
Saule Omarova is a professor of law and the director of the Jack Clarke Program on the Law and Regulation of Financial Institutions and Markets at Cornell University. Saule joins Macro Musings to talk about the prospects of an emergency fiscal facility, as well as a broader vision for a National Investment Authority. Specifically, Saule and David discuss the need for a third public finance agency, what the mandate of such an authority would be, and how the agency would be structured and held accountable. Saule also answers common objections to her vision such as the potential institutional redundancies, as well as how to prevent cronyism and excessive politicization. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Saule’s Twitter: @STOmarova Saule’s Cornell profile: https://www.lawschool.cornell.edu/faculty/bio_saule_omarova.cfm Related Links: *Data For Progress: A National Investment Authority* https://www.dataforprogress.org/a-national-investment-authority *Why We Need a National Investment Authority* by Saule Omarova https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3566462 *The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy* by Saule Omarova https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3715735 *What Kind of Finance Should There Be?* by Saule Omarova https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3544103 *White Paper: A National Investment Authority* by Saule Omarova and Robert C. Hockett https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3125533 *The Money Problem* by Morgan Ricks https://www.amazon.com/Money-Problem-Rethinking-Financial-Regulation/dp/022633032X David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
58:1708/03/2021
Pat Parkinson on the 2020 Treasury Market Meltdown and How to Avoid a Potential Sequel
Pat Parkinson is a senior fellow at the Bank Policy Institute and a 30-year veteran of the Federal Reserve system, where he served as director of the Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation. During that time, he was also a member of the Basel Committee on Banking and advised Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Tim Geithner on financial market issues. Pat joins Macro Musings to discuss the treasury market meltdown in March 2020, as well as what we can do moving forward to avoid this issue from happening again. Specifically, David and Pat outline the implementation of a standing repo facility, changes to the supplemental leverage ratio, expanded central clearing, and increased data collection as possible solutions to this problem. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Pat’s BPI profile: https://bpi.com/people/pat-parkinson/ Related Links: *Enhancing Liquidity of the U.S. Treasury Market Under Stress* by Nellie Liang and Pat Parkinson https://www.brookings.edu/research/enhancing-liquidity-of-the-u-s-treasury-market-under-stress/ *US Treasuries: The Lessons from March’s Market Meltdown* by Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth https://www.ft.com/content/ea6f3104-eeec-466a-a082-76ae78d430fd David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
56:3801/03/2021
Kathy Bostjancic on Priorities for the Fed in 2021 and Beyond
Kathy Bostjancic is the chief US financial economist at Oxford Economics and joins Macro Musings to discuss the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy in 2021 as well as in financial markets. Specifically, David and Kathy discuss the prospects for Fed policy and personnel under the Biden Administration, immediate concerns facing the Fed as the COVID pandemic continues into 2021, what steps the Fed can take to make their new AIT framework credible, how large scale asset purchases have impacted asset prices and the real economy, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Kathy’s Twitter: @BostjancicKathy Kathy’s Oxford Economics profile: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/about-us/staff/267824/kathy-bostjancic David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
48:4822/02/2021
Ricardo Reis on Central Bank Swap Lines, Fiscal Sustainability, and Outlooks for Inflation
Ricardo Reis is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a returning guest to the podcast. Ricardo rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank swap lines, the importance of fiscal sustainability, and the outlook for inflation in advanced economies. David and Ricardo also discuss safe asset alternatives, and how to think about inflation, debt, and deficits in a more nuanced way. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Ricardo’s Twitter: @R2Rsquared Ricardo’s LSE profile: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/ Related Links: *Central Bank Swap Lines* by Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis https://voxeu.org/article/central-bank-swap-lines *Central Bank Swap Lines During the Covid-19 Pandemic* by Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/20-covicbswaps.pdf *The Constraint on Public Debt When r https://iepecdg.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/mpkrg-201112.pdf *Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment* by Jens Hilscher, Alon Raviv, and Ricardo Reis https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20339/w20339.pdf *The New Global Financial Safety Net: Struggling for Coherent Governance in a Multipolar System* by Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2946452 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:01:3715/02/2021
Robert Kaplan on the Fed’s New Framework, Inflation, and the Post-COVID Economy
Robert Kaplan is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Previously, he was a professor and Associate Dean at Harvard Business School, and prior to that was a Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs. Robert is a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's new framework, inflation, interest rates and more. Specifically, David and Robert talk about COVID’s impact on FOMC operations, how demographic trends are impacting productivity, the Fed’s expanding balance sheet, its average inflation targeting framework, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Robert’s Twitter: @RobSKaplan Robert’s Dallas Fed profile: https://www.dallasfed.org/en/fed/bios/kaplan.aspx David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
41:0108/02/2021
Daniel Griswold on US Demographic Decline and the Case for Expanding Immigration
Daniel Griswold is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center and a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration policy. Dan is also a returning guest is to the podcast, and joins Macro Musings to talk about immigration policy and the outlook for trade policy with the new Biden Administration. Specifically, David and Dan discuss the major demographic decline in the US, and how greater levels of immigration and can solve many of America’s economic concerns. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Dan’s Twitter: @danielgriswold Dan’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/daniel-griswold Related Links: *More Immigration Needed to Offset COVID-19 and America’s Demographic Decline* by Daniel Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/publications/trade-and-immigration/more-immigration-needed-offset-covid-19-and-america%E2%80%99s-demographic *Half a Million Fewer Children? The Coming COVID Baby Bust* by Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/ *World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights* by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division at the United Nations https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf *The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050* by Joel Kotkin https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/298866/the-next-hundred-million-by-joel-kotkin/9781101195703 *Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories from 2017 to 2100: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study* by Stein Emil Vollset et al. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext *Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy* by Douglas Irwin https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
49:3501/02/2021
Sam Bell on Fed Policy, Personnel, and Politics in 2021
Sam Bell is the policy director of Employ America, a think tank dedicated to having the economy run at full employment levels. Sam is also known on FOMC Twitter as an influencer when it comes to nominations for the Board of Governors. Sam returns to Macro Musings to talk about what 2021 likely has in store for the Fed. Specifically, Sam and David discuss Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s vision for temporary price level targeting, the prospects of Jay Powell and Lael Brainard (and others) for the next Fed chair, the significance of Janet Yellen’s treasury secretary appointment, and the political pressures facing the Fed in 2021. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Sam’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell About Employ America: https://employamerica.org/about/ Related Links: *Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pandp.20191082 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
50:4425/01/2021
Caleb Watney on *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* and How to Boost Economic Growth
Caleb Watney is the director of innovation policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) and he joins Macro Musings to talk about his recent piece, *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* and the reasons why we should all be techno-optimists. Specifically, David and Caleb discuss greater skilled immigration, further government R&D spending, innovative energy solutions, and more as ways to help repair an economy plagued by secular stagnation. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Caleb’s Twitter: @calebwatney Caleb’s PPI profile: https://www.progressivepolicy.org/people/caleb-watney/ Related Links: *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* Caleb Watney https://www.agglomerations.tech/cracks-in-the-great-stagnation/ *The Egghead Gap* by Caleb Watney https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-egghead-gap *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338 *Is the Rate of Scientific Progress Slowing Down?* by Tyler Cowen and Ben Southwood https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cEBsj18Y4NnVx5Qdu43cKEHMaVBODTTyfHBa8GIRSec/edit *The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies* by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w25148.pdf David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
55:4918/01/2021
Scott Sumner on the Princeton School of Macroeconomics and Overcoming Inflationary Fears
Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center and a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins the podcast today to talk about his ongoing work on the Princeton School of Macroeconomics as well as his thoughts on monetary policy in 2021. Specifically, David and Scott discuss the economic contributions of various different Princeton economists as well as how the central bank can overcome inflationary fears and establish further institutional credibility. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Scott’s automated Twitter: @MoneyIllusion Scott’s blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/ Scott’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner Related Links: *It’s Baaack: Japan’s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap* by Paul Krugman, Kathryn Dominguez, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/its-baaack-japans-slump-and-the-return-of-the-liquidity-trap/ *Great Expectations and the End of the Depression* by Gauti Eggertsson https://www.jstor.org/stable/29730131?seq=1 *The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Michael Woodford https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/the-zero-bound-on-interest-rates-and-optimal-monetary-policy/ *Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound* by Michael Woodford https://kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf *Bernanke’s No-arbitrage Argument Revisited: Can Open Market Operations in Real Assets Eliminate the Liquidity Trap?* By Gauti Eggertsson and Kevin Proulx https://www.nber.org/papers/w22243 *Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?* by Ben Bernanke https://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf *Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting* by Lars Svensson and Michael Woodford https://www.nber.org/papers/w9747 *Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others* by Lars Svensson https://www.nber.org/papers/w10195 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
59:0311/01/2021
Josh Galper on Dealing with Climate Risk and Its Potential Impact on US Financial Markets
Josh Galper is the managing principal at Finadium, an independent consultancy in capital markets, and is deep in the trenches of the money markets, as well as the financial regulatory space. As a returning guest to the podcast, Josh rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the big changes we might see in financial regulation, especially as it relates to climate issues under the new Biden administration. David and Josh also discuss the prospects of negative interest rates in the US, the influence of the Financial Stability Board, and how to deal with Treasury and repo market stress in the future. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Josh’s Twitter: @Finadium Josh’s Finadium profile: https://finadium.com/josh-galper-mba/ Related Links: *Fed Joins Central Bankers Backing Paris Climate Goals* by Martin Arnold https://www.ft.com/content/008a12d2-7736-4db0-af9c-e063a0bcdd7a *Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System* by the Climate Market Risk Subcommittee, Mark Risk Advisory Committee of the CFTC https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/9-9-20%20Report%20of%20the%20Subcommittee%20on%20Climate-Related%20Market%20Risk%20-%20Managing%20Climate%20Risk%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Financial%20System%20for%20posting.pdf *Fixing Financial Data to Assess Systemic Risk* by Greg Feldberg https://www.brookings.edu/research/fixing-financial-data-to-assess-systemic-risk/ David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
52:3004/01/2021
Macro Musings Producer Special – Recapping 2020 and Looking Ahead to the Future
As a tumultuous, virus-stricken 2020 comes to an end, David is joined by Macro Musings producer Marc Dupont to discuss the highlights of the show throughout the past year. Specifically, they talk about the big macroeconomic themes and takeaways from the last 12 months, which guests and topics were most popular among listeners, what 2020 may have in store for monetary policy, and more. A special thank you to all of the Macro Musings listeners around the globe who continue to tune in to the show week in and week out, especially during these tough and uncertain times. Stay tuned for more exciting content as we turn a new page in 2021. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Marc’s Twitter: @marc_c_dupont Related Links: Top 10 Macro Musings Episodes in 2020: Adam Tooze on Dollar Dominance, the Eurozone, and the Future of Global Finance - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/adam-tooze-on-dollar-dominance-the-eurozone-and-the-future-of-global-finance Jim Tankersley on the State of the Middle Class and How to Boost Economic Growth - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-tankersley-on-the-state-of-the-middle-class-and-how-to-boost-economic-growth Eric Sims on New Keynesian Modelling and the Future of Macroeconomics in a Low Interest Rate Environment - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/eric-sims-on-new-keynesian-modelling-and-the-future-of-macroeconomics-in-a-low-interest-rate-environment Paul Schmelzing on the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline of Global Real Interest Rates - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/paul-schmelzing-on-the-suprasecular-decline-of-global-real-interest-rates Nathan Tankus on Public Finance in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Consolidated Budget Balance View and Its Implications for Policy - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/nathan-tankus-on-public-finance-in-the-covid-19-crisis-a-consolidated-budget-balance-view-and-its-implications-for-policy Brad Setser on Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage and COVID-19’s Implications for Worldwide Trade Imbalances - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/brad-setser-on-addressing-the-global-dollar-shortage-and-covid-19s-implications-for-worldwide-trade-imbalances Matthew Klein on Global Trade, Inequality, and International Conflict - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/matthew-klein-on-global-trade-wealth-inequality-and-international-conflict Jim Bianco on Policy Responses to the Coronavirus: Details, Implications, and Concerns Moving Forward - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-bianco-on-policy-responses-to-the-coronavirus-details-implications-and-concerns-moving-forward Jon Sindreu on Global Financial Flows and the Balance of Trade - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jon-sindreu-on-global-financial-flows-and-the-balance-of-trade Scott Sumner on How Central Banks Should Respond to the Coronavirus Threat - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/scott-sumner-on-how-central-banks-should-respond-to-the-coronavirus-threat
41:1928/12/2020
Jeanna Smialek on the Year-End Review of 2020 Financial Markets, the Fed, and US Monetary Policy
Jeanna Smialek covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for The New York Times, and joins Macro Musings to recap and summarize the highs and lows of US monetary policy during 2020. Specifically, David and Jeanna discuss the recent histories of Federal Reserve rate hikes and the persistence of low inflation, the nascent optimism about the economy at the start of 2020, the Fed’s policy response to COVID, and what lessons the Fed will be taking into the future. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jeanna’s Twitter: @jeannasmialek Jeanna’s New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/jeanna-smialek Related Links: *Janet Yellen's Lift Off (CMFA Working Paper No. 001)* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2020/12/04/janet-yellens-lift-off-cmfa-working-paper-no-001/ *Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants* by Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-11.pdf David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
53:5821/12/2020
Ethan Ilzetzki on Exchange Rate Volatility, the ECB’s Strategy Review, and the Future of the Euro
Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research affiliate with the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he re-joins Macro Musings to talk about the European Central Bank’s big strategy review, the future of the Euro, and whether change is afoot in our international monetary system. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Ethan’s Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan’s website: https://www.ilzetzki.com/ Related Links: *Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w26760 *Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/will-the-secular-decline-in-exchange-rate-and-inflation-volatility-survive-covid-19/ Centre for Macroeconomics Panel of Experts Surveys: https://cfmsurvey.org/surveys Register for the AEA’s 2021 Virtual Annual Meeting: https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/ *Ethan Ilzetzki on the US Dollar as an Anchor Currency* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/56-ethan-ilzetzki-on-the-us-dollar-as-an-anchor-currency David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
52:5314/12/2020
Governor Benjamin Diokno on BSP Policy and the Philippine Economy
Governor Benjamin Diokno is the current head of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, or BSP, which is the central bank of the Republic of the Philippines. The Governor joins David on Macro Musings to shed light on the art and science of central banking from an emerging market perspective, as seen through the experience in the Philippines. Specifically, Governor Diokno and David discuss the structure, mandate, and operating system of the BSP, how the BSP has managed to avoid the zero lower bound, the prospects of a Philippine central bank digital currency, and how a flexible exchange rate has helped the BSP hedge against dollar volatility. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Gov. Diokno’s Twitter: @GovBenDiokno Gov. Diokno’s World Bank profile: https://live.worldbank.org/experts/benjamin-e-diokno Related Links: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/Default.aspx David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
27:3707/12/2020
Sam Hammond and Brink Lindsey on *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy*
Sam Hammond is the director of poverty and welfare policy at the Niskanen Center and Brink Lindsey is vice president and director of the Open Society Project at the Niskanen Center. Both are returning guests to the podcast, and they join David again on Macro Musings to talk about their new pro-growth report titled, *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy.* Specifically, they detail a number of different policies the US government could adopt to achieve faster and fairer economic growth, including social insurance modernization, child allowances, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/samuel-hammond/ Brink’s Twitter: @lindsey_brink Brink’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/brink-lindsey/ Related Links: *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy* by Brink Lindsey and Sam Hammond https://www.niskanencenter.org/faster-growth-fairer-growth-policies-for-a-high-road-high-performance-economy/ *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf *How Asia Works* by Joe Studwell https://groveatlantic.com/book/how-asia-works/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
59:2430/11/2020
Bilal Hafeez on Inflation, Innovation, and Economic Recovery after COVID-19
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Founder of Macro Hive and previously worked at JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Nomura. Bilal joins Macro Musings to discuss recent economic developments and the outlook for inflation after the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, Bilal and David discuss the prospects for a K-shaped US recovery, COVID-19’s impact on the Eurozone and the UK, how the launch of the EU’s recovery fund has fared, and how the pandemic has impacted the outlook for the services sector, inflation, and the US dollar. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bilal’s Macro Hive profile: https://macrohive.com/researcher/bilal-hafeez/ Bilal’s website: http://bilalhafeez.com/ Bilal’s Twitter: @bilalhafeez123 Related Links: *The True Economic Consequences of the COVID Peace* by Bilal Hafeez https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/the-true-economic-consequences-of-the-covid-peace *EU Enjoys ‘Outrageous Demand’ for First Covid-related Bond* by Tommy Stubbington https://www.ft.com/content/e3553b68-22c8-487c-a7c0-7e1c6dc0ec4b David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
54:1123/11/2020
Adam Ozimek on the Past, Present, and Future of Remote Work in the Face of COVID-19
Adam Ozimek is the chief economist for Upwork, a global remote freelancing platform, and a returning guest to the podcast. Adam rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the lasting impacts of the pandemic on businesses; specifically its influence on remote work. David and Adam also discuss the results of the payment protection program, why the prime age employment to population ratio should become the most important employment measure, the economic geography of remote work, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Adam’s Twitter: @ModeledBehavior Adam’s website: https://adamozimek.com/ Related Links: *The Future of Remote Work*by Adam Ozimek https://www.upwork.com/press/releases/the-future-of-remote-work *COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data* by Erik Byrnjolfsson, John Horton, Adam Ozimek, Daniel Rock, Garima Sharma, and Hong-Yi TuYe https://www.nber.org/papers/w27344 *Where Remote Work Saves Commuters Most* by Adam Ozimek https://www.upwork.com/press/releases/where-remote-work-saves-commuters-most *When Work Goes Remote* by Adam Ozimek https://www.upwork.com/research/when-work-goes-remote *How Many Jobs can be Done at Home?* by Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf *How Many U.S. Jobs Might be Offshorable?* by Alan Blinder https://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/workingpapers/142blinder.pdf David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
51:4116/11/2020
Alan Cole on Monetary Policy for a Post-COVID Economy
Alan Cole is a senior economist at the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Alan joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work with the JEC and his thoughts on the economy. Specifically, Alan and David discuss the high savings rate during the COVID-19 crisis, the track record of US monetary policy from the 2008 financial crisis to the 2020 COVID-19 crisis, why the Fed’s commitment to average inflation targeting is an incremental step toward level targeting, and suggestions for the Fed moving forward. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Alan’s Twitter: @AlanMCole Related Links: The JEC’s Social Capital Project: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/socialcapitalproject *Saving and COVID-19* by Alan Cole https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/analysis?ID=754B52C6-04CD-458B-8755-98D1219398F1 *Stable Monetary Policy to Connect More Americans to Work* by Alan Cole https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/analysis?ID=051267FC-0147-4E31-BE80-946E0543AF82 *Bullard May Be More Right Than Wrong* by Tim Duy https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/09/28/bullard-may-be-more-right-than-wrong/ *The Fed’s Mistake* by Adam Ozimek and Michael Ferlez https://www.economy.com/home/products/samples/2018-11-20-Feds-Mistake.pdf David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
50:3709/11/2020
David French on Political Polarization in America and Its Impact on the 2020 Elections
David French is a senior editor of The Dispatch and has written widely on American politics. David has a new book out on the polarization in the United States titled, *Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore our Nation.* He joins Macro Musings for another special presidential election episode to discuss this book as well as what political polarization means for the election, this country, and the economy. Specifically, both Davids talk about the political geography of polarization, the national red state versus blue state dynamics, and how instituting more federalism might be the solution. Transcript for the episode can be found here. David French’s Twitter: @DavidAFrench David French’s Dispatch archive: https://thedispatch.com/people/5849328-david-french Related Links: *Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore our Nation* by David French https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250201973 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
58:1702/11/2020
Michael Strain on the Differing Economic Policies of Trump vs. Biden
Michael Strain is the Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and a previous guest of the show. Michael joins Macro Musings for a special presidential election episode to discuss President Trump's economic record and what a Biden presidency might mean for the economy compared to a second term for President Trump. Specifically, David and Michael discuss the presidential candidates’ past records and campaign goals for trade, taxes, regulations, immigration, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Michael’s Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael’s AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/profile/michael-r-strain/ Related Links: The Mercatus Center’s RegData databse: https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulation/regdata *The triumph of the Trump tax cuts* by Joshua McCabe https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/522813-the-triumph-of-the-trump-tax-cuts David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
38:1229/10/2020
Matt Yglesias on *One Billion Americans*: New Ideas to Revitalize the American Economy
Matt Yglesias is the co-founder of Vox, a senior correspondent who focuses on politics and economic policy, and a returning guest to the podcast. Matt once again joins Macro Musings to discuss his new book, *One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger.* Specifically, David and Matt talk about how to reinvigorate the economy; through enacting better housing and transportation policies, dramatically increasing immigration, reviving America’s forgotten cities, and more. Finally, they also discuss the Fed’s new average inflation targeting regime, and what kind of direction the Fed will take over the new few years. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Matt’s Twitter: @mattyglesias Matt’s Vox profile: https://www.vox.com/authors/matthew-yglesias Matt’s podcast: https://www.vox.com/the-weeds Related Links: *One Billion Americans: The Case For Thinking Bigger* by Matt Yglesias https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/636499/one-billion-americans-by-matthew-yglesias/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:01:0426/10/2020
Shruti Rajagopalan on the Past, Present, and Future of the Indian Economy
Shruti Rajagopalan is a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center where she leads the programs Indian Political Economy Research and the Emergent Ventures India. Shruti joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the past, present and future of the Indian economy. Specifically, Shruti and David discuss India’s mid-20th century experiment with socialism, subsequent reforms from 1980 through the 2000s, and how further reforms to manufacturing and to land and labor markets can accelerate its economic development. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Shruti’s Twitter: @srajagopalan Shruti’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/shruti-rajagopalan Shruti’s podcast, *Ideas of India*: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/https://www.mercatus.org/tags/ideas-india Related Links: *India Grows at Night* by Gurcharan Das https://www.amazon.com/India-Grows-At-Night-Liberal/dp/0670084700 *In India, Don’t Hate the Matchmaker* by Shruti Rajagopalan https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-02/netflix-s-indian-matchmaking-is-only-too-accurate *It’s Chiefly Rent Seekers Who Oppose Our Farm Reforms* by Shruti Rajagopalan https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/it-s-chiefly-rent-seekers-who-oppose-our-farm-reforms-11601304066126.html David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:06:4119/10/2020
Roberto Perli on Average Inflation Targeting and Improving the Fed’s Framework
Roberto Perli is a partner and the head of global policy at Cornerstone Macro and is formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Roberto joins Macro Musings to discuss the Fed’s new average inflation targeting framework and what it means for monetary policy, markets, and the economy going forward. Specifically, David and Roberto also discuss the current vague nature of FOMC forward guidance, the challenges and credibility concerns of AIT, and how to further improve the Fed’s framework in the future. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Roberto’s Twitter: @R_Perli Roberto’s Cornerstone Macro profile: https://www.cornerstonemacro.com/people/ Related Links: FOMC September meeting press release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200916a.htm *Temporary Price-level Targeting: An Alternative Framework for Monetary Policy* by Ben Bernanke https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/10/12/temporary-price-level-targeting-an-alternative-framework-for-monetary-policy/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
52:5412/10/2020
Megan Greene and Eric Lonergan on Dual Interest Rates and the Prospects of Average Inflation Targeting
Megan Greene is a global economist and Senior Fellow at Harvard University School, and Eric Lonergan is an economist and macro fund manager at M&G Investments. Both Megan and Eric are returning guests of the show, and they re-join Macro Musings to discuss dual interest rates and the potential power it brings to central banks. Specifically, they discuss the current constraints on central banks’ toolkit, how the example of the ECB targeting TLTRO’s illustrates the potential of dual interest rates, why the concern over fiscal versus monetary policy is misunderstood, and whether the Fed’s new average inflation targeting mandate can be successfully implemented. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Megan’s Twitter: @economistmeg Megan’s website: https://economistmeg.com/about/ Megan’s Financial Times archive: https://www.ft.com/megan-greene Eric’s Twitter: @ericlonners Eric’s blog: https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/ Eric’s M&G Investments profile: https://www.mandg.co.uk/investor/fund-managers/eric-lonergan/ Related Links: *Dual Interest Rates Give Central Banks Limitless Firepower* by Eric Lonergan and Megan Greene https://voxeu.org/article/dual-interest-rates-give-central-banks-limitless-fire-power *A Misplaced Faith in the Power of Central Banks* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-misplaced-faith-in-the-power-of-central-banks-11583256163 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
57:5805/10/2020
Thorvald Grung Moe on the Life of Marriner Eccles and His Lasting Macroeconomic Legacy
Thorvald Grung Moe is a 30 year veteran is of the Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, and has also worked in the Norwegian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, and the IMF. Thorvald joins Macro Musings to talk about Marriner Eccles and a paper he has written on him title, *Marriner Eccles in the 1950 Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bankers.* David and Thorvald specifically discuss Eccles’ views on countercyclical monetary policy and government finance, his role in reforming and centralizing the Fed, and the many other lessons that can be learned from his life, particularly in the realm of macroeconomics. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Thorvald’s Twitter: @finstab Thorvald’s Levy Economics Institute profile: http://www.levyinstitute.org/scholars/thorvald-grung-moe Related Links: *Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury – Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence* by Thorvald Grung Moe http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_747.pdf David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:02:1228/09/2020
Carolyn Sissoko on the Collateral Supply Effect and Other Concerns in the Money Market
Carolyn Sissoko is an associate professor of economics at the University of the West of England, and she has written widely on shadow banking, money markets, and the plumbing of the financial system. Carolyn joins Macro Musings to talk about the evolution of money markets over the past few decades, and its implication for both monetary and fiscal policy. Specifically, David and Carolyn discuss the collateral supply effect, the consequences of moving from LIBOR to SOFR, and solutions to other money market concerns. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Carolyn’s Twitter: @csissoko Carolyn’s UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko Related Links: *The Collateral Supply Effect on Central Bank Policy* by Carolyn Sissoko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3545546 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:01:4421/09/2020
Robin Harding on Abenomics and the ‘Japanification’ of Monetary Policy
Robin Harding is the Tokyo Bureau chief for the Financial Times. Until 2015, he was based in Washington D.C., covering the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the IMF for the Financial Times. Robin Macro Musings to talk about the Japanese economy, Abenomics, and the evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies over the past decade. Specifically, Robin and David discuss what the Bank of Japan’s point inflation target has in common with the Fed’s average inflation target, how the Bank of Japan found itself on the frontlines of innovation in monetary policy, and what the legacy of Abenomics portends for the future of monetary policy. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Robin’s Twitter: @RobinBHarding Robin’s Financial Times profile: https://www.ft.com/robin-harding Related Links: *Six Abenomics Lessons for a World Struggling with ‘Japanification’* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/9f4b1656-95a2-41e0-9c86-70f5b063796d *Abe’s Tenure Marked by Trade Successes and Thwarted Ambitions* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/125378c8-073c-41b6-9aef-42b985c24784 *Leave Public Debt Worries for Another Day* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/691cb9f4-b53d-4429-bba4-03ca623c0077 *Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound* by Michael Woodford https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
53:2314/09/2020
George Selgin on Average Inflation Targeting and *The Menace of Fiscal QE*
George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins again to talk about his views on the Fed’s new framework and his recent book titled, *The Menace of Fiscal QE.* Specifically, David and George discuss the Fed’s quantitative easing evolution, and how the move to a floor system helped pave the way for fiscal QE to become a more popular policy in the present. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin Related Links: *The Menace of Fiscal QE* by George Selgin https://www.cato.org/books/menace-fiscal-qe *Mission Creep at the Fed* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/mission-creep-at-the-fed-11598461446 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:05:0907/09/2020
BONUS: Employ America’s Webcast Panel on the Federal Reserve’s Updated Framework and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
Macro Musings is back with another bonus episode, as Sam Bell and Skanda Amarnath (Employ America) are joined by Julia Coronado (Macro Policy Perspectives) and David Beckworth (Macro Musings) to talk through the announcement of the Fed’s framework transition towards average inflation targeting. Specifically, this panel of guests discuss the implications of moving to an average inflation targeting regime, whether the shift may cause credibility problems for the central bank, how to continue to improve the Fed’s toolkit, and more. Special thanks to the Employ America team for allowing us to use their webcast audio for this special Macro Musings bonus content. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Employ America’s Twitter: @employamerica Employ America’s website: https://employamerica.org/ Sam Bell’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda Amarnath’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Julia’s Twitter: @jc_econ Julia’s Macro Policy Perspectives profile: https://www.macropolicyperspectives.com/team Related Links: *A New Way to Manage Inflation* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/new-way-manage-inflation *By Doubling Down On Inflation Targeting, the Fed Is At Risk of Forgetting Lessons from 2008 & 2011* by Skanda Amarnath https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/by-doubling-down-on-inflation-targeting-the-fed-is-at-risk-of-forgetting-lessons-from-2008-2011-f877f78acba2 *Securing Macroeconomic and Monetary Stability with a Federal Reserve–Backed Digital Currency* by Julia Coronado and Simon Potter https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/pb20-4.pdf David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
58:4002/09/2020
Scott Lincicome on the China Shock, Trade Policy, and US Labor Markets
Scott Lincicome is a senior fellow in Economic Studies at Cato Institute where he writes on international and domestic economic issues, including international trade, industrial policy and manufacturing and global supply chains. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to discuss what we've learned so far about the so-called China shock and where we are today in the trade war. Specifically, David and Scott discuss the historical rise of Chinese exports, its impact on US labor markets, how certain policies make it harder for US workers to adjust, and whether the Trump administration marks a genuine regime shift in international trade. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Scott’s Twitter: @scottlincicome Scott’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome Related Links: *Testing the ‘China Shock’: Was Normalizing Trade with China a Mistake?”*by Scott Lincicome https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/testing-china-shock-was-normalizing-trade-china-mistake#:~:text=However%2C%20champions%20of%20the%20emerging,with%20China%20for%20particular%20scorn.&text=It%20finds%20that%20PNTR%20and,that%20PNTR%20critics%20now%20repeat. *Clashing over Commerce* by Douglas Irwin https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html *Audaciously Hopeful: How President Obama Can Help Restore the Pro‐Trade Consensus* by Dan Ikenson and Scott Lincicome https://www.cato.org/publications/trade-policy-analysis/audaciously-hopeful-how-president-obama-can-help-restore-protrade-consensus *The 'China Shock', Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis* by Robert Feenstra and Akira Sasahara https://www.nber.org/papers/w24022 *Executive Incentives, Import Restrictions, and Competition* by Brian Blank https://www.mercatus.org/publications/trade-and-immigration/executive-incentives-import-restrictions-and-competition David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:01:3531/08/2020
Jim Tankersley on the State of the Middle Class and How to Boost Economic Growth
Jim Tankersley is a tax and economics reporter for the New York Times and has written a new book on the middle class titled, *The Riches of This Land: The Untold, True Story of the American Middle Class.* Jim joins Macro Musings to talk about this book, and the state of the middle class in the US. David and Jim also discuss the history and golden era of the middle class as well as the steps policymakers can take to ensure we return to a path of robust economic growth. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jim’s Twitter: @jimtankersley Jim’s New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/jim-tankersley Related Links: *The Riches of This Land: The Untold, True Story of the American Middle Class* by Jim Tankersley https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/jim-tankersley/the-riches-of-this-land/9781541767836/ *The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth* by Chang-Tai Hsieh, Erik Hurst, Charles Jones, and Peter Klenow https://www.nber.org/papers/w18693 *Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash* by J. Lawrence Broz, Jeffry Freiden, and Stephen Weymouth https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3501263 *Testing the ‘China Shock’: Was Normalizing Trade with China a Mistake?* by Scott Lincicome https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/testing-china-shock-was-normalizing-trade-china-mistake *The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade* by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson https://economics.mit.edu/files/12751 *The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream* by Tyler Cowen https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250108708 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:04:3424/08/2020
Vincent Grossmann-Wirth on the ECB in a Post-COVID Economy
Vincent Grossmann-Wirth is the Deputy Head of Monetary Policy Implementation Division at the Banque de France. Vincent joins Macro Musings to discuss the European Central Bank’s response to the COVID-19 crisis and what may lie ahead for the central bank. Specifically, Vincent and David discuss how the ECB’s structure and operating system compares to the US Federal Reserve System, the various dimensions of the ECB’s response to COVID-19, and what the ECB’s review of its operating framework portends for the future of monetary policy. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Vincent’s Twitter: @VinceGW Vincent’s Banque de France profile: https://www.banque-france.fr/en/economics/economists-and-researchers/vincent-grossmann-wirth Related Links: *Monetary policy measures taken by the Eurosystem in response to COVID-19* by Vincent Grossmann-Wirth https://blocnotesdeleco.banque-france.fr/en/blog-entry/monetary-policy-measures-taken-eurosystem-response-covid-19 *What Monetary Policy Operational Frameworks in the New Financial Environment? A Comparison of the US Fed and the Eurosystem Perspectives, 2007–2019* by Vincent Grossmann-Wirth https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/ijpoec/v48y2019i4p336-352.html David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
59:4217/08/2020
David Schleicher on the Municipal Trilemma and its Implications for the Current Crisis
David Schleicher is a professor at Yale Law School, and as a returning guest to Macro Musings, he joins to talk about the historical role that the federal government has played in responding to state and local budget crises, including the municipal trllemma it faces. This trilemma says the federal government can only avoid two of the three following harms: (1) moral hazard for state budgets; (2) worsening recessions; (3) reducing future state and local infrastructure investment. Specifically, they discuss this trilemma as well as its implications for the COVID-19 crisis. Transcript for the episode can be found here. David’s Twitter: @ProfSchleich David’s Yale profile: https://law.yale.edu/david-n-schleicher Related Links: *Stuck! The Law and Economics of Residential Stagnation* by David Schleicher https://www.yalelawjournal.org/article/stuck-the-law-and-economics-of-residential-stagnation *Hands On! Part I: The Trilemma Facing the Federal Government During State and Local Budget Crises* by David Schleicher https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3649278 *David Schleicher on Local and State Regulation and Declining Mobility* by Macro Musings https://macromusings.libsyn.com/58-david-schleicher-on-local-and-state-regulation-and-declining-mobility *The Future of Remote Work* by Adam Ozimek https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3638597 *States Continue to Face Large Shortfalls Due to COVID-19 Effects* by Elizabeth McNichol and Michael Leachman https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/states-continue-to-face-large-shortfalls-due-to-covid-19-effects David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:04:3910/08/2020
Jon Sindreu on Global Financial Flows and the Balance of Trade
Jon Sindreu is a reporter for the Wall Street Journal where he covers financial markets and the global transportation industry for the Heard on the Street column. Jon joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the role of global financial flows in driving global trade patterns. Specifically, Jon and David discuss the Bernanke view, loanable funds view, and money view of global financial system, as well as the implications for policy. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jon’s Twitter: @jonsindreu Jon’s Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jon-sindreu?mod=rsswn Related Links: *Trade Wars Are Class Wars* by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300244175/trade-wars-are-class-wars *Wages of Destruction* by Adam Tooze https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/295490/the-wages-of-destruction-by-adam-tooze/ *Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market* by Zhimin Li, Leslie Sheng Shen, and Calvin Zhang https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/capital-flows-asset-prices-and-the-real-economy-a-china-shock-in-the-us-real-estate-market.htm David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
01:03:1203/08/2020
David Beckworth on Nominal GDP Targeting in the Wake of the COVID-19 Crisis
In this special Macro Musings episode, David is back in the spotlight, as he is interviewed by Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, as a guest on her *Stay-at-Home Macro Podcast*. David and Claudia discuss nominal GDP targeting at length, as they dive into what it is, why it’s important, and how it could be implemented in the wake of COVID-19. They also talk about the communication problems related to introducing NGDP targeting as well as David’s proposal for reforming the Fed’s current policies. Special thank you to Claudia for letting us air this episode as a part of the Macro Musings catalog! Transcript for the episode can be found here. David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/david-beckworth Claudia’s Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia’s Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth.org/people/claudia-sahm/ Related Links: Link to the original podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rHBQ-o8vDA Homepage for Claudia’s podcast: http://macromomblog.com/sahmpodcast/ *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/facts-fears-and-functionality-ngdp-level-targeting *Measuring Monetary Policy: the NGDP Gap* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/measuring-monetary-policy-ngdp-gap *COVID-19 Pandemic, Direct Cash Transfers, and the Federal Reserve* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/covid-19-policy-brief-series/covid-19-pandemic-direct-cash-transfers-and-federal *NGDP Targeting and the Public* by Carola Binder https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/spring/summer-2020/ngdp-targeting-public
44:3327/07/2020
Bill Nelson on the Fed’s Policy Tools in the Post-COVID Economy
Bill Nelson is a Chief Economist and Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute, and formerly a Deputy Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill also worked closely with the Bank for International Settlements on liquidity regulations. Bill is a previous guest of Macro Musings, and he returns to the podcast to discuss the Fed’s increasing role in credit policy, the prospects for yield curve control and negative interest rates, and why makeup policy would be uniquely suited to the challenges presently facing the economy. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bill’s SIFMA profile: https://www.sifma.org/people/bill-nelson/ Bill’s BPI archive: https://bpi.com/tag/bill-nelson/ Bill’s American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618 Related Links: *Live Live Jay Powell, the New Monarch of the Bond Market* by Robin Wigglesworth https://www.ft.com/content/5db9d0f1-3742-49f0-a6cd-16c471875b5e *Federal Reserve’s “Strategies for Targeting Interest Rates Out the Yield Curve”* prepared by David Bowman, Christopher Erceg, and Mike Leahy, with contributions from William English, Edward Nelson, David Reifschneider, Nathan Sheets, and David Wilcox of Board staff and Brian Sack, Spence Hilton, Allan Malz, Frank Keane, Matt Raskin, Julie Remache, Josh Frost, Nate Wuerffel, Angela O’Connor and Richard Dzina of FRBNY staff https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20101013memo08.pdf David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
59:1820/07/2020
Jens Van’t Klooster on ECB Bond Purchasing and the Myth of Central Bank Neutrality
Jens Van’t Klooster is a postdoctoral fellow at KU Leuven and is also a member of the research group, A New Normative Framework for Financial Debt at the University of Amsterdam. Jens has recently coauthored an article titled *The Myth of Market Neutrality: A Comparative Study of the European Central Bank’s and Swiss National Bank’s Corporate Security Purchases.* He joins Macro Musings to talk about this article and some of his other work on central bank purchases and what it may mean for the Fed’s purchase of corporate bonds. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jens’s Twitter: @jvklooster Jens’s website: https://jensvantklooster.com/ Related Links: *The Myth of Market Neutrality: A Comparative Study of the European Central Bank’s and Swiss National Bank’s Corporate Security Purchases* by Jens Van’t Klooster and Clement Fontan https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2019.1657077 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:00:0913/07/2020
Matthew Klein on Global Trade, Inequality, and International Conflict
Matthew Klein is an economics commentator at Barron’s and is the author of a new book with Michael Pettis titled, *Trade Wars are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace.* Matthew is a returning guest to Macro Musings and he joins once again to talk about his book and the domestic roots of international trade conflicts – in the past as well as today. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the history of how industrialized strategies, in countries such as China, have set the stage for trade conflicts in the present day. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Matthew’s Twitter: @M_C_Klein Matthew’s Barron’s profile: https://www.barrons.com/authors/8566 Related Links: *Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace* by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300244175/trade-wars-are-class-wars *The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy* by Michael Pettis https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691158686/the-great-rebalancing *The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan* by Sebastian Mallaby https://www.cfr.org/book/man-who-knew *Imperialism: A Study* by John Hobson https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/hobson-imperialism-a-study *Communist China’s Capitalism: The Highest Stage of Capitalist Imperialism* by Kenneth Austin https://www.worldeconomics.com/Journal/ViewArticle.aspx?AID=455 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:04:0806/07/2020
Stephen Kirchner on Australian Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Stephen Kirchner is a program director for trade and investment at the United States Center at the University of Sydney, and he was written widely on financial markets and economy policy in Australia. Stephen joins Macro Musings to talk about the journey of monetary policy in Australia that has transpired throughout the last few decades. Specifically, David and Stephen discuss the structure of the Reserve Bank of the Australia, the history of its inflation target, how Australia was able to avoid the worst of the Great Recession, and the actions they have taken to in response to the COVID crisis. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Stephen’s Twitter: @insteconomics Stephen’s US Studies Center profile: https://www.ussc.edu.au/people/stephen-kirchner Stephen’s Substack page: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/ Related Links: *Money Too Tight to Mention: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Mandate and Low Inflation* by Stephen Kirchner http://www.institutional-economics.com/images/uploads/EAP.pdf *Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning against the Wind* by Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip https://rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/2019-05.html *Twenty-five Years of Inflation Targeting in Australia: Are There Better Alternatives for the Next 25 Years?* by Warwick McKibbin and Augustus Panton https://www.brookings.edu/research/twenty-five-years-of-inflation-targeting-in-australia-are-there-better-alternatives-for-the-next-25-years/ *The RBA Needs a New Post-virus Monetary Policy Game* by Richard Holden, Warwick McKibbin, and John Quiggin https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-rba-needs-a-new-post-virus-monetary-policy-game-20200505-p54ptw David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:00:1229/06/2020
Daniela Gabor on Financial Globalization, Capital Controls, and the Critical Macrofinance Framework
Daniela Gabor is a professor of economics and macrofinance at the University of West England at Bristol, where she works on shadow banking, capital markets, and transnational banking. Daniela is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she has a new paper out on the burgeoning field of critical macrofinance and how it sheds light on the past great financial crisis (2007-2009) and the present COVID-19 crisis. She re-joins Macro Musings to discuss this paper and how it can offer important insight into the current global economic environment. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Daniela’s Twitter: @DanielaGabor Daniela’s UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/DanielaGabor Related Links: *Critical Macro-Finance: A Theoretical Lens* by Daniela Gabor http://financeandsociety.ed.ac.uk/article/view/4408 *The Role of Time-Critical Liquidity in Financial Markets* by David Marshall and Robert Steigerwald https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2013/2q-marshall-steigerwald *The Growth of Financial Banking* by Anna Youngman https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/251239?mobileUi=0& *Daniela Gabor on Safe Assets and Shadow Banking* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/103-daniela-gabor-on-safe-assets-and-shadow-banking David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:04:1322/06/2020
Darrell Duffie on Treasury Markets and the Post-COVID Path to Financial Stability
Darrell Duffie is a professor of finance at Stanford University, and he joins Macro Musings to discuss the treasury market problems that emerged in March 2020 and what can be done to avoid them in the future. Specifically, Darrell and David lay out the current state of financial markets, the ability of treasury markets, as currently designed, to handle demand shocks, and how central banking reforms can better ensure financial stability in the future. Register here for the Cato Institute/Mercatus Center Webinar Series - *A Fed for Next Time: Ideas for a Crisis‐Ready Central Bank*: https://www.cato.org/events/fed-next-time-ideas-crisis-ready-central-bank Transcript for the episode can be found here. Darrell’s Twitter: @DuffieDarrell Darrell’s website: https://www.darrellduffie.com/ Darrell’s Stanford profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/darrell-duffie Related Links: Bonus segment with Darrell: https://youtu.be/0Y3MTjgbP74 *Pass-through Efficiency in the Fed’s New Monetary Policy Setting* by Darrell Duffie and Arvind Krishnamurthy https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/passthrough-efficiency-feds-new-monetary-policy-setting *The Failure Mechanics of Dealer Banks* by Darrell Duffie https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.24.1.51 *Still the World’s Safe Haven? Redesigning the U.S. Treasury Market after the COVID-19 Crisis* by Darrell Duffie https://www.brookings.edu/research/still-the-worlds-safe-haven/ David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
52:4215/06/2020
Peter Stella on the Fed’s Off-Balance Sheet Transactions and Public Financing of the COVID-19 Crisis
Peter Stella is a former IMF official, where he led the Central Banking and Monetary and Foreign Exchange divisions, and he now hosts a webpage titled *Central Bank Archeology*. Peter is also a former guest of Macro Musings, and rejoins to talk about the COVID-19 crisis, central bank balance sheets, and more. David and Peter also discuss the dangers and challenges of the Fed’s off-balance sheet transactions, how the government should approach crisis financing, and who should be managing the country’s public debt. The transcript for the episode can be found here. Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s Voxeu profile: https://voxeu.org/users/peterstella0 Peter’s Research Gate archive: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Stella Related Links: Peter's *Central Bank Archaeology* website: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ *Macro Musings: Peter Stella on Debt, Safe Assets, and Central Bank Operations* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/144-peter-stella-on-debt-safe-assets-and-central-bank-operations David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:02:4408/06/2020
Adam Tooze on Dollar Dominance, the Eurozone, and the Future of Global Finance
Adam Tooze is a professor of history at Columbia University, and is the author of many books, including his popular account of the 2007-2009 crisis, titled Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crisis Changed the World. Adam joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the COVID-19 crisis, the Eurozone, and the future of central banking. Specifically, Adam and David break down recent events and risks in the global financial system, the future of the dollar as reserve currency, and the implications of the recent German-Franco debt deal for the Eurozone. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Adam’s Twitter: @adam_tooze Adam’s Columbia profile: https://history.columbia.edu/faculty/adam-tooze/ Adam’s website: https://adamtooze.com/ Related Links: *How Coronavirus Almost Brought Down the Global Financial System* by Adam Tooze https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system) *The Death of the Central Bank Myth* by Adam Tooze https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/13/european-central-bank-myth-monetary-policy-german-court-ruling/ *Still the World's Safe Haven?* by Darrell Duffie https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WP62_Duffie_updated.pdf *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w23134 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:00:4401/06/2020
Alp Simsek on a Risk-Centric View of Demand, Recession, and Speculation
Alp Simsek is an associate professor of economics at MIT, and joins Macro Musings to talk about the link between financial markets, uncertainty and the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, David and Alp discuss the dual absorption problem within financial markets, how supply shocks and demand shocks have inescapably become interwoven phenomenon, and why we should look to using macroprudential policy in the future. The transcript for the episode can be found here. Alp’s Twitter: @alpsimsek_econ Alp’s MIT profile: https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/asimsek Related Links: Bonus segment with Alp: https://youtu.be/eoGxYcWmH9E *A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation* by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek https://www.nber.org/papers/w23614 *A Model of Asset Price Spirals and Aggregate Demand Amplification of a ‘COVID-19’ Shock* by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek https://www.nber.org/papers/w27044 *Prudential Monetary Policy* by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek https://www.nber.org/papers/w25977 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
59:4827/05/2020
Thomas Hoenig on Bank Capitalization and Fed Policy after COVID-19
Thomas Hoenig is a former vice chair of the FDIC, former president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, and is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Tom’s research has focused on the long-term impact of the politicization of financial services, as well as the effects of government grant privileges on market performance. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to talk about COVID-19, the Fed's response to its economic impact, and the current state of banking in the United States. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Thomas’s Twitter: @tom_hoenig Thomas’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/thomas-hoenig Related Links: Bonus segment with Thomas: https://youtu.be/CrA1WRtu0jc David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
55:5625/05/2020
Scott Sumner on the Government’s Response to COVID-19 and the Future of Level Targeting
Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Professor Emeritus of economics at Bentley University, and a research fellow at the Independent Institute. As a returning guest to the podcast, Scott joins Macro Musings to give his latest thoughts on the COVID-19 crisis and its implications for monetary policy. Specifically, David and Scott discuss how the Fed can conduct more aggressive monetary policy, what a level targeting regime should look like in the future, and the current progression toward negative interest rates. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Scott’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner Scott’s blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/ Related Links: Scott's bonus segment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8DXU_1oIsg&feature=youtu.be *Reforming the Fed’s Toolkit and Quantitative Easing Practices: A Plan to Achieve Level Targeting* by Scott Sumner and Patrick Horan https://www.mercatus.org/publications/covid-19-policy-brief-series/reforming-feds-toolkit-and-quantitative-easing-practices *Negative Interest Rates and Negative IOER* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/negative-interest-rates-and-negative-ioer/ David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
50:2820/05/2020
Lev Menand on the Fed’s Lending Facilities and the Legal Concerns Surrounding Them
Lev Menand is a legal scholar at Columbia Law School and has previously worked for the New York Fed, the US Treasury Department, and the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC). Lev Joins Macro Musings to talk about his new paper, *Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed’s Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules that Govern Them*. Specifically, David and Lev discuss opening up public Fed bank accounts, the importance of liquidity and credit facilities, and how Congress is using the CARES Act to skirt the Fed’s current legal mandates. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Lev’s Twitter: @LevMenand Lev’s Columbia Law profile: https://www.law.columbia.edu/faculty/lev-menand Related Links: Bonus segment with Lev: https://youtu.be/N9qndjjju9A *Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed’s Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules That Govern Them* by Lev Menand https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3602740 *FedAccounts* by Morgan Ricks, John Crawford, and Lev Menand https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3192162 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
01:03:3918/05/2020
Martin Hellwig on the Recent German Constitutional Court Ruling and Its Potential Eurozone Implications
Martin Hellwig is the director of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the Eurozone and the implications of the recent German Constitutional Court (GCC) ruling for the future of the monetary union. David and Martin specifically discuss the background of the perceived Eurozone crisis, the power struggle between the GCC and the European Court of Justice, and how this case may lead to a total breakdown of the Eurozone. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Martin’s MPI profile: https://www.coll.mpg.de/martin-hellwig Related Links: Bonus segment with Martin: https://youtu.be/1POrO_8VcM0 *The Leverage Ratchet Effect* by Anat Admati, Peter DeMarzo, Martin Hellwig and Paul Pfleiderer https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/working-papers/leverage-ratchet-effect *German Court Has Set a Bomb Under the EU Legal Order* by Martin Sandbu https://www.ft.com/content/79484c01-b66b-4f81-bdc6-fd4def940821 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
43:1813/05/2020
Nathan Tankus on Public Finance in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Consolidated Budget Balance View and its Implications for Policy
Nathan Tankus is the director of research at the Modern Money Network, and a research fellow at the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity. Nathan is also the author of a number of articles on the Fed's recent activity at his Substack page titled “Notes on the Crises.” Nathan joins Macro Musings to talk about the post-Keynesian view of money, central bank independence, and the consolidated view of public finance, as well as evaluate the policy responses by the Fed and Congress to COVID-19. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Nathan’s Twitter: @NathanTankus Nathan’s Substack page: https://nathantankus.substack.com/ Related Links: Bonus segment with Nathan: https://youtu.be/VPl0LYgttYI *Monetary, Credit, and Fiscal Policies: A Collection of Statements Submitted to the Subcommittee on Monetary, Credit, and Fiscal Policies by Government Officials, Bankers, Economists, and Others (specifically a comment made by Albert G. Hart) by the Joint Committee on the Economic Report https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/congressional/1949jec_mcfpstate.pdf#page=332 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
53:3511/05/2020
Anat Admati on the Perils of Corporate Debt and How COVID-19 Relief Efforts Have Gone Wrong
Anat Admati is a professor of finance and economics at Stanford University, and is well-known for her work on leveraging debt in our financial system and how it makes our economy more susceptible to shocks. She’s also a co-author of the popular book, *The Banker’s New Clothes: What Went Wrong with Banking and What to Do About It*. Anat joins Macro Musings again to talk about the COVID-19 crisis from the debt perspective, how the Fed and Congress have responded so far, and how their relief efforts should have been focused differently. The transcript for the episode can be found here. Anat’s Twitter: @anatadmati Anat’s website: https://admati.people.stanford.edu/ Related Links: Bonus segment with Anat: https://youtu.be/4xHmmgoURqg *The Banker’s New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It* by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691162386/the-bankers-new-clothes *The Leverage Ratchet Effect* by Anat Admati, Peter DeMarzo, Martin Hellwig, and Paul Pfleiderer https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12588 *Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts* by Oscar Jorda, Mortiz Schularick, and Alan Taylor https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-23.pdf *Coronavirus Crisis Lays Bare the Risks of Financial Leverage, Again” by Martin Wolf https://www.ft.com/content/098dcd60-8880-11ea-a01c-a28a3e3fbd33 *House of Debt: How They (And You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again* by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo20832545.html *Collateral Frameworks: The Open Secret of Central Banks* by Kjell Nyborg https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/collateral-frameworks/DE8BACD87F364A66DD496F601BE92FE7 *Bankruptcy for Banks: A Sound Concept That Needs Fine-Tuning* by Mark Roe and David Skeel https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/dealbook/bankruptcy-for-banks-a-sound-concept-that-needs-fine-tuning.html David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
43:4306/05/2020