We are approaching final central bank decisions of 2024 with uncertainty about ultimate outcomes, but clear differences across jurisdictions on where economies are headed. In Canada, soft growth data has solidified our expectation for a second consecutive 50bp cut despite firmer inflation data last month, while US economic exceptionalism has markets pricing a material possibility of a skip on the 18th. Across the Atlantic, the ECB is debating between 25bp and 50bp, while the BoE looks set to pass at its final meeting of 2024. Meanwhile, FX and equity markets have been impacted by the central bank pricing volatility, incoming Trump administration and the threat of US tariffs.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

For macro and bond investors, 2024 has been challenging. Despite central banks cutting rates, bond yields have remained high, and country-specific macroeconomic factors have heavily influenced allocation strategies. Looking ahead to 2025, returns in global fixed income will largely depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's easing measures. Macro nuances are expected to continue playing a critical role in cross country performance.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistRobert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The ECB delivered another cut today and there is more to come, the BoC is primed to start cutting in 50bp increments and do a lot over the cycle, the Fed should cut further but only a little bit, and China has recently delivered a lot of stimulus. The RBNZ has recently cut 50bp and could follow up with materially more. But the outlier is the RBA who is sitting patiently and doesn’t appear ready to cut anytime soon. So while most centrals are moving in the same direction there is notable differences in the speed and magnitude of cuts across countries.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistAlvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs potential. The BoE and ECB seem set to take things slow, but a larger cut is a non-zero chance.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, these central banks look to be proceeding gradually along their respective cutting paths, but the possibility of larger cuts still loom should economic conditions start to deteriorate. Meanwhile, others are proving even more cautious, with the next cut from central banks such as the RBA and BoE even further afield.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There are nuances in every economic cycle but this one continues to feel different. Central banks are firmly in easing mode - the Fed will join the rate-cutting party in September. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts is the main topic for financial markets and is highly dependent on the assessment of the economic cycle. Listen to our macro and rates experts discuss the US, Canada, and European economies and central bank outlooks. Participants:Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We have seen very large market moves triggered by the US labour market report over the last few days that have also led to quite a few market participants changing their view on Fed rate cuts. We take a deeper dive into the data, highlight important questions that need answering and reiterate our rates call for the Fed and all other major central banks. We do not feel the need to make changes at this stage!Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have been pricing more rate cuts again on the back of somewhat weaker data releases, specifically in the US. Yet, central banks remain reticent in telegraphing rate cuts clearly. Can the latter change and make markets price in even more? Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Two G7 central banks have already cut – the ECB & BoC . Both should cut more as the year progresses while the BoE and Fed are likely to join the rate-cutting party later this year. At the other end of the spectrum is the RBA which is widely expected to keep the cash rate steady this year. Each country has its own nuances that will impact the timing and magnitude of policy changes, which we discuss in this podcast under the theme of green lights (i.e. what makes them move), yellow (what creates confusion or a pause), and red lights (what could stop them dead in their tracks). Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy AnalystCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The BOC and ECB both kicked off long-awaited cutting cycles last week with questions about the depth and duration of these cycles likely to drive markets from here. But in other regions the case for pulling forward cuts is still somewhat weak. Where other central banks remain on hold, the trading environment might remain relatively rangebound into this summer.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Two developed market central banks have already cut - Riksbank and SNB - and the BoC, ECB and BoE should follow suit over the next couple of months. But the higher for longer theme is dominating the US rates market. The divergence in macro and policy is the major theme in rates markets. The other important theme is that despite Fed cuts being priced out, risk assets continue to perform well with the S&P making new highs and credit spreads at cycle tights.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsLori Calvasina (Research),Head of U.S. Equity StrategyResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have been ultra-sensitive to data for some time now, going back to market pricing for hikes starting in late 2021. More recently, several strong US inflation prints have de-railed the potential for upcoming Fed cuts, while upside surprises have occurred in Canada, the UK and Australia in the recent weeks. Will these data points be determinant for upcoming central bank decisions? What important releases are to come?Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistMichael Reid (Desk Strategy), US EconomistCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX StrategistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The latest resilience in the US has kick started a debate about how much other regions that appear to not show the same kind of underlying strength can diverge from the Fed and cut rates regardless. We see the best chances of that happening in Canada, but also provide updated views on the BoE, ECB and RBA. Meanwhile, the gyrations in the JPY keep investors on their toes and we add our voice to the mix of what lies in store.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake/Izaac: FOMCElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are wavering as US economic data continues to come in hot. But that economic performance hasn’t necessarily been replicated in other regions. Will other major central banks feel pressure to keep in step with the Fed or start marching to the beat of their own drummers?Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The question on everyone’s mind is when central banks will start cutting rates. Over the past month, market pricing has progressively gravitated from a near certainty that the BoC and Fed would cut by June to now under a 50% chance. In the UK the pricing for a June cut is higher than a month ago but less than two weeks ago, while for the ECB the market has been resolute in pricing a June start date.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsLori Calvasina (Research),Head of U.S. Equity StrategyResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

While markets are parsing through central bank communication for the timing and pace of rate cuts, the future of central bank balance sheets is increasingly in focus as well. What will happen with quantitative tightening? And what will balance sheets look like in a future steady state?Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsRobert Thompson (Research), Australia Macro Rates StrategistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It appears that markets have retraced some of their expectations for central bank action much closer to where speakers are guiding investors - in other words, we are trading much closer to what most people would consider 'fair value'. We sense a long bias in the fixed income markets and the question whether this is a sign of things to come offers itself. Meanwhile, FX markets are trading sideways and question about what can break the lethargy should be asked.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyGordon Scott (Desk Strategy), Euro Area EconomistElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets came into 2024 pricing in aggressive central bank cutting cycles. But continued resilience in growth and labor market data, along with some recent wobbles in the downward march of inflation has markets (and policymakers) pumping the brakes.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyMichael Reid (Desk Strategy), US EconomistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The narrative from central banks has decidedly shifted from the risk of further tightening to signaling the next move will be lower. To paraphrase the message Powell gave us last week – we have confidence, and our confidence has increased that inflation will meet our objective, but we need more confidence before we start to cut. With central banks expecting a soft landing, they are gently easing into the easing cycle. When will central banks have enough confidence to pull the trigger & where will policy rates ultimately land?Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Focus continues on the timing and depth of central bank rate cuts as they try to engineer soft landings for economies across the globe. Central bank balance sheets and QT end timing in different jurisdictions have become increasingly topical as well. How do equity markets navigate this uncertain environment?Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy AnalystMichael Reid (Desk Strategy), US EconomistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bond markets and equity markets have rallied sharply at the tail end of 2023 essentially based on a ‘soft landing’ scenario that sees inflation back at target as early as Q2 2024 whilst growth is weakening but not descending into a fully-fledged recession. This allows global central to cut rates – according to current market pricing – as early as March/April and will see up to 150bp of rate cuts before the year is out from the Fed and ECB respectively with other central banks hard on their heels. That being said, early in 2024, most parts of financial markets struggled to continue where 2023 left off – and we think for good reasons. Incoming data was not as weak as some might have hoped for – particularly in Europe – central bank speakers have been rowing back some of the dovish rhetoric and the usual and fully expected bond supply wave seems to leave some footprints in markets nevertheless. 10y bond yields have risen some 25-30bp since the low just after Christmas and credit as well as equity markets have given back some gains already.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyGordon Scott (Desk Strategy), Euro Area EconomistJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyAndrea Marcheggiano (Desk Strategy), Director Capital Markets AdvisoryResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As 2023 comes to a close, we shift focus to what to expect in 2024, with year-ahead outlooks released for Europe, the US, and Canada last week. Will macro data show a clear direction towards reaching the 2% inflation target? How soon will central banks cut? These questions and more will be the focus of this edition.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSimon Deeley  (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistSantosh Sateesh  (Trading), Head of Credit Derivatives TradingResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The market environment over the last two weeks may be best described as chop. Yields have been bouncing around day-to-day but market narratives seem to be settling with year-end in sight.Participants:Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The trends in markets since June - higher yields, lower equities, wider credit spreads - pulled a sharp U-turn over the past week. Lower bond yields have provided the impetus for a decent equity and credit rally. Listen to hear about where bond yields are headed from here and what it means for the equity market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyMichael Reid (Desk Strategy), US EconomistLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Global yield curves have been moving higher and steeper despite new geopolitical risks and a dovish tilt in recent central bank rhetoric. Can bonds find some solid ground to stand on or do they still have further to fall?Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyGordon Scott (Desk Strategy), Euro Area EconomistRobert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bond markets keep pushing higher and curves steeper - but why? It appears that a combination of better than expected macro data and central banks communicating that rates will be held around present levels for longer than expected is leading to a repricing. The risk is that this not only continues but also takes hold of other markets, notably in the European time zone, where only a small amount of the rate cuts have been repriced as of yet. Positioning and developments in the Yen market are also making investors in Europe and the US jittery.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy AnalystSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistRobert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates StrategistAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The main story in financial markets is fixed income and the relentless surge in yields. We explore why yields have been rising and curves steepening, whether this trend can continue, or what are the necessary ingredients for a turnaround.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We have a number of central bank events on deck, with the ECB meeting this week, followed by the Fed and BoE next week. Overall, it seems like it’s coming up on closing time for global hiking cycles, but major central banks may be looking to get one last round of hiking in before the end.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Ouch! Bonds have been burned in low liquidity summer markets, adding to the pain (total return losses) of the past two years. The move in bond yields is not unjustified based on fundamentals (now) but the level seems unsustainably high for the future evolution of macro. But can bonds rally in the face of a positioning overhang?Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAlvin T. Tan  (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With key central bank meetings due over the coming weeks at the same time, as economic sentiment data is weakening, the question of 'How Long Will It Take?' until rate hikes feed through into the real economy has become more prominent again lately. Meanwhile, the very same question is also asked in China, with the opposite effect in mind. In this episode, we preview the upcoming rate decisions and add our thoughts on the 'how long' question.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSimon Deeley  (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistAlvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A number of global fixed-income markets have broken higher as central banks are still left to deal with tight labor markets and core inflation that is not falling fast enough for comfort. Can the sell-off continue, overcoming lingering fears of an economic slow-down or will yields quickly pull back down into old ranges?Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyMichael Reid (Desk Strategy), US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Groundhog Day was a film about the same day repeating itself over and over, which has some parallels to what is happening in markets - policy rates higher, curves flattening, equities unfazed, and USD-CNY marching higher. Will this cycle continue or be short-circuited? That probably depends on what market or country you are talking about.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAlvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Hiking cycles are extending or re-starting later in 2023 than many expected for the BoC and Fed, with the terminal points heavily dependent on the evolution of data in the near term. The BoE is similarly very data dependent, while the ECB looks set to extend its cycle further. Developed market economies have generally "outperformed" in the first half of the year, with expected weakness failing to materialize in hard data (so far).Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Debt ceiling negotiations turned out to be a lot less dramatic than many had anticipated – still to come are congressional votes – but once the smoke clears we’re left facing down the back half of the year with many of the questions investors had in January not much closer to being answered – it looks like we have seen peak headline inflation but core is proving to be stickier than many had anticipated. That has led to a reassessment of the policy outlook for the back half of the year – we discuss updated views on the Fed, BoE, ECB, BoC and RBA. The other side of the story is a buoyant equity market, seemingly impervious to hikes getting priced out. That may be puzzling or frustrating for macro investors but we discuss how the under-owned right tail in equities may signal more pain to come.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Debt limit talks are ongoing in Washington, with financial markets already jittery on US banking concerns amid restrictive policy stances across many developed markets. Recent ECB speakers have generally noted they expect further hikes, while the BoE left the door open in its data dependent stance. BoC communication over the last month has emphasized that another hike is very possible and any talk of cuts is premature. How close "to the limit" will central banks take policy?Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We have a number of major central banks meeting these next two weeks, including the RBA last night, the FOMC, ECB, later this week, and the BOE next week. While each of these institutions may be facing slightly different circumstances, it’s likely that all are nearing a decision point within the next meeting or two, where they have to decide whether to keep pushing against high inflation or trust that they have already delivered enough tightening to sustainably redirect inflation back to target levels. That debate may be framed by the tension between backward and forward looking frameworks. Or more specifically do you rely on backward looking data, which generally shows that inflation is still uncomfortably elevated and labor markets remain tight, or trust more forward looking, model driven forecasts that would suggest pent-up lagged effects and tightening in credit conditions due to banking stress, are already enough to pull inflation back to target?Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyGerard Cassidy (Research), Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank AnalystJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics)Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Rate volatility continues to be elevated, with policy rate expectations swinging around as determining the terminal rate and what happens afterwards is proving complicated. The unwinding of banking sector concerns accelerated into a more meaningful sell-off and rate hikes continued from most major central banks.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist, Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst, Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy) - Senior UK Economist, Alvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy) - Asia FX Strategist, Lori Calvasina (Research) - Head of US Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The last week felt much calmer than anything experienced since the SVB and CS induced turmoil over the prior weeks. Volatility is much reduced, credit spreads are tighter and primary markets are re-opening again. Can this last and what are the lingering implications for markets and the economy from the March volatility? Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySean Taor (Debt Capital Markets), Head of European DCM and SyndicateJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It might be an overly simplistic argument, but in hindsight it should not be surprising that aggressive Fed rate hikes broke something in financial markets. Policy actions to ring fence the problems have been fast and furious but can all the kings horses and all the king's men, put dislocated markets back together again?Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyNicola Dransfield (Desk Strategy), European financials credit strategistAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo TradingTom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As hockey and basketball enter the last weeks of the regular season, central banks themselves are approaching the end of their hiking cycles. There is significant divergence among global central banks, ranging from a conditional pause from the BoC in January (which we expect to be reiterated this week) to ongoing tightening messages from the ECB and the Fed.Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Are markets being fooled by lags? Not unusual for this point in the cycle, some data is coming stronger and some weaker. Recently the market has taken its cue from strong labor market data which might be a mistake. It has only been 6-8 months since large-scale rate hikes started and with monetary policy lags being anywhere from 12-24 months, there is a possibility that the bond market is underestimating the timing and magnitude of the growth downturn. But the patterns are not uniform across countries and this episode examines some of the nuances.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyRobert Hogue (Research), Assistant Chief EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US payroll report sent shock waves through the fixed income market. Market pricing shifted aggressively - terminal pricing is now the highest in the cycle and finally consistent with the FOMC dots. Contagion has also spread to other markets. What now? Can the Fed keep hiking, can the BoC stay on hold, how much further will the BoE, ECB, or RBA go? And what are the implications for equities and FX? This episode delves into these topics.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Recent months have seen widespread hikes across most G10 central banks, but the potential for divergence is high in the coming months as some central banks are approaching the end of their hiking cycle.Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives StrategySu-Lin (Research), Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship ManageRobert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

While upcoming policy increments and terminal values for various countries are highly debatable, Can't, Won't, Don't Stop seems like an appropriate characterization of current near term central bank policy. To reiterate our message from late last year - 2023 could turn out to be as challenging as 2022 but for different reasons. 2022 was how high policy rates would go. In 2023 market expectations should become fractured into the hike, hold, cut camps.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

BoC/Fed/BoE/ECB are all on tap over the coming week. How high rates will go, whether there will be a quick U-turn to rate cuts in 2023 and by how much, is a central theme for markets that will influence not only yield levels and curve shapes, but also important for FX and broader risk assets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

2022 was complicated, but it was dominated by a one-sided risk event - how high would rates go. 2023 should be even more complicated; policy scenarios could oscillate between various outcomes depending on the depth of the growth slowdown and inflation dynamics.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

All year market pricing for terminal rates in most countries has been a moving target and one directional - higher. Last week the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate hikes but a terminal value that was higher than their previous forecast. Where does this cycle end?Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Most central banks are at a maturing stage of the hiking cycle, putting terminal policy rates firmly in focus at upcoming meetings both sides of the Atlantic.Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A made in UK fiscal crisis has led to sharp rises in gilt yields, with the BoE's buyer of last resort interventions disappointing those expecting more QE-type operations. The yield rises have permeated to Treasuries and other developed markets, with important cross-asset implications.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn(Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsDaniel Rico (Desk Strategy), Latin America FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts