I had questions. A lot of them. So I sat down with someone who might have answers - Mary Daly, President and CEO of the San Francisco Fed. She's one of the people actually making the decisions that affect your money. Five big things I wanted to understand: Why everything still feels so expensive What's really happening with jobs Why Wall Street and Main Street feel like different planets How the Fed makes these massive decisions Whether they can actually fix this00:00 Intro02:10 Some History07:30 Price Stability 10:33 The Fed Test11:05 The Price Problem18:47 The Labor Market22:52 The Path ForwardSourceshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laSqNpmCeQk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxTnOWDw31shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL-OaWx9LrMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLyh5fSTLLwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7nj2X-yl_U&t=12shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVDE5Q74EhM&t=253shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=512mhHUoJgkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jheesQ8ot3ghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b03af6b670https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTivWJvGYtIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuNCfkDtPNk📚 Want to learn more? Check out:Newsletter: kyla.substack.comBook: "In This Economy?"Podcast: Let's Appreciate🔗 Follow for daily economic insights:TikTok: @kylascanInstagram: @kylascanLinkedIn: @kylascanDISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax).  The owner of this content is not an investment advisor.  Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes.  Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability.  The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release.  The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy.  The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

Donald Trump’s election has ben elected the 47th president of the United States. Here's what it means and what could happen next.Newsletter: https://kyla.substack.com/p/how-trump-won-what-happens-next-andSourceshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkrNsNDaXS8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4t0S9zZn2QQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kBiyueN-l4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgUD03R50oc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTxECVof1GYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpG0PBsuLjU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwzHi5C6y2Ehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3ptpdZwNb0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3ErLnADwX4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q29HmHSgfk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcHCpyfMavAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFw--KOUtCEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-PmFUV-dtwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJOMfH08waIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF-I9I1k9J0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkyPPEqjHdchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d3wzom0RNwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4jWMKC4nZwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaWihejcGcMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb28kAavh0Mhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Xa9T2OMzmw00:00 Intro01:17 Why Did DJT Win?01:57 The Role of the Manosphere03:59 No One Wants to be an Incumbent04:41 Economic Disconnect05:42 Inflation07:42 Inequality11:18 Structural Affordability12:41 The Information Problem15:32 Institutional Credibility19:08 The Disconnect20:40 Policy and Person21:55 Biden Retrospective27:43 How to Fix It29:35 Trump's Agenda31:20 Tariffs38:21 The Market40:34 What is Happening45:13 The Path ForwardDISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax).  The owner of this content is not an investment advisor.  Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes.  Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability.  The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release.  The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy.  The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

I follow the outline of the CRFB here. In this episode, we break down the economic policy proposals of two major candidates: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. We analyze their plans on taxes, healthcare, education, housing, and more, providing insights into how each policy could impact the economy. We draw from multiple sources, including CRFB and Budget Model, to offer an objective comparison. Key topics discussed include tax cuts, social spending, border security, tariffs, and long-term economic stability. Find out which candidate's policies could be better for the U.S. economy and why.Sourceshttps://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-planshttps://itep.org/kamala-harris-donald-trump-tax-plans/https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/trump-campaign-policy-proposals-2024https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/harris-campaign-policy-proposals-2024https://youtu.be/qdgIP6IjHdk?si=XARLjRYCIHlCuEBf https://youtu.be/AnO-QPn5v58?si=OweXWRAE-GHnYS_u https://youtu.be/oxufaMb37SE?si=dCavn3EYGDtDG11phttps://youtu.be/2ec4Oa2L1fo?si=zDmAaeT560GXKP4l https://youtu.be/8GH-zVMGuWw?si=BeSHFAqOmoXeO6q3 https://youtu.be/MVph94jk8ZM?si=M8FVXFUKJ0mpoHaE https://youtu.be/oc_voADxXFE?si=bdGnL9vegml5WrVe https://youtu.be/Fv03JJ_GaIQ?si=hb8USPAaYFvhxm7z https://youtu.be/uAyo4sywXG8?si=fd2ORSf1bOjCcY6c https://youtu.be/UWgndJn1jUI?si=QC1ZD35jymumlz09 https://youtu.be/Mt-y2_Q1EkU?si=6Gd7lZfptxVRRaey https://youtu.be/KxYdVTETwu4?si=RjMyUrocIWhiKZDf https://youtu.be/btB3ghpu5RI?si=h7Hd0F2-MHokjOsB https://youtu.be/_-eHOSq3oqI?si=Jp4SQIThvAJfFNFl https://youtu.be/pPlhS22BG9k?si=atlv3nR_zYr4ih6G https://youtu.be/KmQLhtlHO1o?si=_bY4IAclwOoFQXFS 

Massive Longshoremen Strike: Implications for US Economy, Jobs, and AutomationThe international longshoremen's association has initiated a large-scale strike on the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, risking substantial economic activity and millions of jobs. In this episode, we discuss the demands of the 45,000 striking dock workers, the potential economic impact (up to $4 billion loss per day), and the broader consequences for the US economy amid the upcoming election, holiday season, and global tensions. Key points include the dock workers' push for higher wages and a ban on automation, the response from the United States Maritime Alliance, the Biden administration's stance, and the strike's potential to fuel inflation. Additionally, we explore the historical context of automation resistance and the need for future labor retraining programs. 00:00 ILA Strike01:10 What is a longshoremen?03:13 usmx04:37 Automation07:21 monetary policy08:56 role of luddite10:29 openai11:48 Worker support

The dating apps are under a lot of pressure. Falling revenues, people not wanting to pay, and Gen Z seemingly uninterested have led to collapsing stocks and circling activist investors. Their only path forward is monetization - but what does that mean for the demographic crisis?00:00 Introduction: The Pressure on Dating Apps00:11 The Monetization Dilemma00:23 The Online Dating Landscape02:18 The Rise of Match Group04:15 The Big Three: Tinder, Hinge, and Bumble06:15 The Financial Struggles of Dating Apps07:15 User Dissatisfaction and Declining Interest15:06 The Demographic Crisis19:58 Possible Solutions and Future Outlook20:49 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsVideos used in this video  • Hinge's Makeover: The New Era For Dat...  https://archive.org/details/CyberDat   • This company owns almost EVERY DATING...    • Tinder CEO on why the firm is launchi...    • Hinge CEO responds to accusations the...    • How Dating Apps Make Money and Why It...    • Dating app stocks: Grindr has prosper...    • Time to swipe right on dating app sto...    • Scott Galloway: The Real DANGER Of Da...&...

We talk a lot about building more housing, but we do not talk enough about the risk of home insurance. We have massively underpriced risk in many parts of the economy. This leads to things like financial nihilism and distrust, which is why we see a world divided - partially because the risk models are all wrong.00:00 Introduction to Kamala Harris's Economic Proposals00:09 Detailed Housing Policies01:14 Supply and Demand in Housing01:37 The Broader Impact of Housing Shortages02:29 The Complexity of Housing as an Asset03:18 Challenges in Home Building03:47 The Home Insurance Crisis08:53 Economic and Financial Implications09:44 Regulatory Issues and Underinsurance11:09 Reinsurance and Secondary Perils13:03 Future Paths and Solutions14:55 Updating Risk Models for the Future17:44 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode, we explore pressing economic questions with Jared Bernstein, Chair of President Biden's Council of Economic Advisors, and Daniel from the National Economic Council. Topics covered include the current state of inflation, the labor market, and the housing market. Key discussions focus on understanding inflation indicators like CPI and PPI, the impact of government policies on housing and rental affordability, and the role of fiscal and monetary policy in addressing economic challenges. The episode also delves into broader economic issues such as child care, eldercare, wealth inequality, and trade policy. Through these conversations, the episode emphasizes the importance of having concrete policy solutions to improve the economy and help the average consumer.00:00 Intro01:20 Inflation05:35 Labor Market11:33 Housing23:29 Conclusion

Survey: https://forms.gle/BD7tPEhDr7tqMws8ABook: https://www.amazon.com/This-Economy-Money-Markets-Really-ebook/dp/B0C4J8YH41/

An interview with Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, on economic data and where he thinks the Fed might be going next. 

Interview with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo on Innovative Housing PoliciesIn this episode, I interview Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo to discuss the recent policies passed by the Treasury to address the housing shortage in the U.S. The conversation highlights Minneapolis' groundbreaking zoning reforms and explores new federal initiatives aimed at making housing more accessible and affordable. Topics include zoning laws, interest rate predictability for builders, and the importance of integrating housing with public transit.00:00 Introduction and Welcome00:05 Interview with Deputy Secretary of the Treasury00:12 The Housing Shortage in America01:30 Minneapolis: A Case Study in Housing Reform04:17 Treasury's New Housing Efforts05:16 Challenges and Solutions in Housing Finance08:27 Integration of Housing and Public Transit09:18 Conclusion and Final Thoughts11:36 Closing Remarks and Call to Action

Inflation!Preorder here: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/ Signed copy here: https://www.boulderbookstore.net/book/9780593727874Giveaway here: https://www.goodreads.com/giveaway/show/388728-in-this-economy-how-money-markets-really-work

A version of this research first appeared in the TLDR podcastPreorder here: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/ Signed copy here: https://www.boulderbookstore.net/book/9780593727874Giveaway here: https://www.goodreads.com/giveaway/show/388728-in-this-economy-how-money-markets-really-work

https://kyla.substack.com/p/when-you-destroy-the-tools-of-creativity

An interview with Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Wally Adeyemo, about how we fix the housing crisis. Blog: https://kyla.substack.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan?Twitter: https://twitter.com/kylascan Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/?h... All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please send me an email, [email protected]: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax).  The owner of this content is not an investment advisor.  Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes.  Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability.  The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release.  The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy.  The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

https://kyla.substack.com/p/why-we-dont-trust-each-other-anymore

Is Wall Street actually buying up all the housing... or is something far worse going on?Featuring interviews with Ro Khanna, the U.S. Representative for California's 17th District, Rick Palacios Jr, the Director of Research at John Burns Research and Consulting, and several beavers.Follow Rick: https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJrFollow Ro Khanna: https://twitter.com/RoKhanna--All articles and works cited here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_AB46PlhICTFcb9BriET7kPlHs6Uqw_vdFncZ-kaAMI/edit?usp=sharingSign up for Public here: https://public.com/kyla--0:00 - 00:51 - Intro00:51 - 01:59 - Housing Market Overview01:59 - 06:26 - What exactly is 'wall street'?06:26 - 12:02 - Housing Crisis12:02 - 16:44 - Fixing Crisis16:44 - 18:22 - Community, General Kyla Monologue--All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me. DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax).  The owner of this content is not an investment advisor.  Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes.  Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability.  The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release.  The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy.  The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

Full article: https://kyla.substack.com/p/2024-outlook-rate-cuts-and-the-influencer

Fed action, uncertainty, and a rant about my favorite book

https://www.dictionary.com/e/pop-culture/vibecession/

All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me.DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax).  The owner of this content is not an investment advisor.  Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes.  Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability.  The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release.  The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy.  The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

One thing I’ve been trying to square lately is online discourse and real world action.I spend a lot of time on this topic (like a lot of time) and it’s because I think it’s important. A lot of people will shrug off how people feel because people are people, and it’s volatile and prone to change, but there is always something within the weeds of these whispers that can be informative to thinking about change.The economy is weird right now. We all know this. We all feel this.Political Narratives and Economic PoliciesWe are about to go into an election year, there was a debate last night, some key gubernatorial races this week (go Kentucky!!!) and of course, political sentiment is going to shape economic sentiment - and divide. I was fortunate enough to interview David Dayen of the American Prospect this week, and he said -Republicans are going to focus on inflation, even if the inflation statistics are pretty moderate at that time… They think it's a winning issue. The Democrats are going to focus on the fact that over 10 million [jobs] have been created under Biden's presidency. That the unemployment rate is at historic lows that the gap between the black and white unemployment rate is at historic lows… There is a problem with touting the economy too much when people's circumstances don't feel like that they're in the same place. I don't know if I would say demeaning, but it seems like it sort of erases people's experience to a certain degree.And people CARE about inflation. They feel like their experience has been erased.Full article: https://kyla.substack.com/p/how-socia...Blog: https://kyla.substack.com All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me.DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax).  The owner of this content is not an investment advisor.  Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes.  Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability.  The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release.  The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy.  The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-tiktok-girl-is-right-modernity

Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee's Stance: The Federal Open Market Committee, led by Jerome Powell, is indicating a pause in interest rate hikes, highlighting a need for caution and careful consideration of "highly elevated" geopolitical risks and other uncertainties. There's potential for a move in December or later, but conditions need to be met based on comprehensive incoming data, the evolving outlook, and risk assessment. Despite the higher long-term yields, Powell suggests less need for the Fed to hike rates. Reasons for the rise in yields include government budget deficits on an unsustainable trajectory. Bond Markets: Bond markets are currently leading to tighter financial conditions, partly due to positive views on the U.S. economy's strength, not just expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Powell emphasizes the importance of understanding the reasons behind bond yield fluctuations; this understanding affects the central bank's actions. Rising borrowing costs may be influenced by U.S. growth expectations and concerns over significant federal deficits. Debt and Deficit Concerns: Current federal deficits, particularly during a period of full employment, are unprecedented. While the unsustainable nature is agreed upon, there's debate over when it becomes problematic. The term premium, which represents the extra yield investors require for investing in longer-term assets, might be increasing. Foreign economic growth, especially China's, is slowing down, impacting the bond market. Aging populations in developed countries suggest more debt issuance in the future. Historical Perspective: This could be a new normal JPM Podcast: https://atanyrate.podbean.com/e/us-fi... WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-b... Notes: https://kylascan.notion.site/What-is-... Blog: https://kyla.substack.com Linkedin:   / kylascanlon   TikTok:   / kylascan   Twitter:   / kylascan   Instagram:   / kylascan   All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me. DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

Blog: https://kyla.substack.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan? Twitter: https://twitter.com/kylascan Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/?h... All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me. DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

Special thanks to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs

https://kyla.substack.com/p/lessons-from-biking-245-miles-across

Last month, large stoppages from strikes resulted in 4.1 million missed days of work, according to the Labor Department. That preliminary estimate was the biggest monthly total since August 2000. - In the United States, the labor movement and the occurrence of strikes really began in the late 19th century. This was aa time of rapid industrialization (one could draw parallels to AI), horrendous working conditions, and negligible workers' rights. - One of the earliest and most notable strikes was the Great Railroad Strike of 1877, precipitated by wage cuts and poor working conditions, which saw massive and widespread worker revolts which eventually led to federal intervention. Notes: https://kylascan.notion.site/Writer-s... Blog: https://kyla.substack.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan? Twitter: https://twitter.com/kylascan Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/?h... All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me. DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

In a world where childcare is increasingly becoming an essential aspect of everyday life, it's crucial to take a moment to reflect on some startling statistics that highlight the challenges faced by working families across the United States. In this video, we'll delve into the eye-opening facts and figures that shed light on the state of childcare in America, as well as the impending crisis that could leave millions without the support they need. Notes: https://kylascan.notion.site/Childcar... Blog: https://kyla.substack.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan? Twitter: https://twitter.com/kylascan Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/?h... All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me. DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

https://kyla.substack.com/p/fragmentation-polarization-and-the

what are bonds + how to buy them Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.

https://kylascan.notion.site/The-Century-of-the-Self-44c40659d49949849e00ca690fd8429e?pvs=4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ3RzGoQC4s https://subpixel.space/entries/life-after-lifestyle/

It isn't. But they need to make some decisions. Full notes: https://kylascan.notion.site/China-87c9812eddf74ad7b2da7e215c6e48ed?pvs=4 Blog: https://kyla.substack.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan? Twitter: https://twitter.com/kylascan Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/?h... All materials in these videos are used for educational purposes and fall within the guidelines of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. If you are or represent the copyright owner of materials used in this video and have a problem with the use of said material, please contact me. DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Discussion of any securities, trading, or markets is incidental and solely for entertainment purposes. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of the date of its initial release. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to, this video.

https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-real-ownership-economy?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

https://kyla.substack.com/p/why-do-people-think-the-economy-is

That meant despite the 2011 S&P downgrade, the US was still a AAA country. But now with the downgrade today, it is no longer the case. expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. only limited progress in tackling medium-term challenges related to rising social security and Medicare costs due to an aging population. Over the next decade, higher interest rates and the rising debt stock will increase the interest service burden, while an aging population and rising healthcare costs will raise spending on the elderly absent fiscal policy reforms. interest payment/GDP is a more appropriate metric to look at finances worse in 1992. It's worsened recently but nowhere near 1992. Fitch's downgrade  is dubious but it should serve as a reminder to the US a high and growing general government debt burden The US Treasury boosted the size of its quarterly sale of longer-term debt for the first time in over 2 1/2 years, testing dealers’ appetites amid an increase in government borrowing needs so alarming it helped spur Fitch Ratings to cut the US sovereign rating from AAA. The Treasury said it will sell $103 billion of longer-term securities at its so-called quarterly refunding auctions next week, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries. That’s up from a $96 billion total last time, and slightly larger than most dealers had expected. Part of that deterioration is thanks to higher interest the Treasury now pays on its debt. The Treasury has also said its tax receipts have been weaker than expected. And in the meantime, the Federal Reserve’s continuing runoff of its holdings of Treasuries, of up to $60 billion a month, requires the government to sell more to the public.  the erosion of governance relative to 'AA' and 'AAA' rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions. here has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to the downgrade, calling it “arbitrary” and “outdated.” FITCH DIRECTOR SAYS   DEBT CEILING SUSPENSION, OR A VERY HIGH BORROWING  LIMIT, COMBINED WITH DEBT TO GDP STABILIZATION, COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE The bond market shrugged off the downgrade. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed in the London session, while the equivalent rate on German securities fell modestly. Risk-sensitive assets took a hit, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index tumbling the most in a month and US futures pointing to losses at the open. The thing about a nation's credit downgrade is that it generally feeds through models to all banks and corporate borrowers too as a proxy for political risk. This downgrade directly questions the fiscal and governance competence of the USA. It will have a wider impact eventually. The move by Fitch now gives the US two AA+ ratings. That could raise a problem for funds or index trackers with a AAA-only mandate, opening up the possibility of forced sales for compliance reasons. The group of countries that still get top marks on their credit worthiness is a declining bunch. Australia, Germany, Singapore, and Switzerland still have the top ratings from all three firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Fitch also rates Canada at AA+. China, the world’s second-biggest economy after the US, has an A+ score from the firm, three notches lower. The sovereign’s rating can act as a ceiling on how high a company in that country is assessed but not in all cases. The number of companies with a AAA level ratings from any of the big three assessors is a dwindling cohort, but it includes household names such as Microsoft Corp. and Johnson & Johnson.

full notes: https://kylascan.notion.site/How-Taylor-Swift-Saved-the-Economy-335ad7b136c04d9ba7f34c22634b99e9?pvs=4

https://kyla.substack.com/p/is-the-vibecession-over

notes: https://kylascan.notion.site/Week-of-July-17-d8ecc17affaa4a74b18c4d1318f59f65?pvs=4

https://kyla.substack.com/p/gen-z-and-financial-nihilism

Expanding upon and discussing my Fast Company article https://www.fastcompany.com/90911399/kyla-scanlon-on-why-gen-z-is-redefining-the-concept-of-job-satisfaction

https://kyla.substack.com/p/we-dont-need-to-destroy-the-economy

https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-economic-perception-model

Full notes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h... 

https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-nostalgia-cycle-loop

https://kyla.substack.com/p/preserving-optionality-and-other

https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-time-premium