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Terry Ryder & Tim Graham
Prepare to embark on an exciting journey into the realm of hot property markets with Terry Ryder and Tim Graham! Terry & Tim from Hotspotting, are dedicated to providing the most accurate and unbiased research to help investors make informed decisions on where to buy. The Hotspotting Podcast brings you the latest data, trends, and market statistics, along with in-depth discussions on growth areas and the larger factors impacting Australia's property landscape.
Terry & Tim regularly feature special guests from around Australia to share their industry insights and expertise to help investors cut through the noise.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or a first-time buyer, this show is a must-listen for anyone looking to build their knowledge and make smarter investment choices. Terry Ryder, with over 35 years of experience as a specialist researcher and writer in residential property, offers expert insights that are completely independent and free from outside influences. Tim Graham has been a buyers agent and mortgage broker for over 13 years along with working in real estate all over the world.
Join us on the Hotspotting Podcast and discover the hottest opportunities in the Australian property market today!
How Service Stations Can Fuel Your Investment Portfolio
Great property investments can be defined in different ways. Here’s a definition that will resonate with many investors:- A long-term lease to an international tenant, a high net rental yield and potential for capital growth from a property that occupies a large block in a high-profile location. It’s credentials like those that make service station properties so highly sought by investors who understand the fundamental benefits of commercial property. Real Estate Investing for reliable Income + Capital Growth Residential v Commercial property – Pro’s and Con’s Accessible Commercial Property Investing – Syndicated Ownership Amplify Fuel & Convenience Trust The future of Fuel & Convenience Centres (Service Stations) Rossi says service station properties are among the most compelling for multiple reasons, which include … Long leases to international brands (including Caltex, BP and Coles Express). Locked-in rental increases Goodwill and geographic necessity High barriers to entry Steve Palise, a member of Hotspotting’s Panel of Partners, says notwithstanding the gradual rise of electric cars, petrol stations will still be in huge demand until 2040-2050 especially highway sites and in country areas. “Trucking and logistics technology is not there yet so major arterial roads will still require petrol stations even longer than this,” he says. “Over time there will be a phase of converting petrol stations to a blend of food, entertainment, customer experience, co-working, and fitness.” To connect with Peter, you can reach out by emailing him at [email protected] To connect with Steve, please visit https://www.paliseproperty.com/
57:4631/07/2024
Vacancies Set To Remain Low For Years
There really is no realistic prospect of rental vacancies rising significantly any time soon, which is grim news for tenants in most parts of Australia. Vacancy rates continue to be close to those historic lows that have become the norm in the past couple of years and I can’t see any way they will improve in the foreseeable future. The politicians who have created this unprecedented shortage of rental properties are clueless about how to fix their mess – and most of their actions which impact on the situation make it worse, not better. The latest data on vacancies nationwide – from one of the key sources, SQM Research - has the national vacancy rate at 1.3% in June, the same as it was a year ago. We still have capital cities with vacancy rates well below 1%, including Adelaide, Perth and Darwin. That June vacancy rate was slightly up on the rate for May, but that’s attributed to seasonal factors. Here’s what Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research and one of Australia’s most experienced and respected research analysts, says about the current situation and about the future of vacancy rates: “Based on history, we have now reached the peak in rental vacancy rates for Winter. It is likely that, vacancy rates will now begin to tighten again and keep tightening until November. “So far this year, we have recorded very similar vacancy rates compared to the same period in 2023. “Overall, the national rental market remains in severe shortage and barring some exceptions, is not expected to materially soften out of the rental crisis for some years.” So what does this mean for residential rents? Well, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to continue rising at 10% or more per year. While vacancies are set to remain dangerously low for some time, there is a ceiling beyond which rents can’t rise because to the capacity of tenants to pay. Louis Christopher says: “Much of the structural rental shortage has now been priced into the rental market and so I do believe the days of 10-20% plus annual rental increases have come to an end.” I agree. Tenants, who tend to have lower incomes, have had years of rising rents and they can’t keep paying more and more in rent, in times when they’re also paying more for food, electricity, petrol and other essentials. But the situation of ongoing ultra-low vacancies does mean that rents won’t fall. They will remain at the current high levels for the foreseeable future.
03:2922/07/2024
Shortage Crisis To Drag On
There will continue to be upward pressure on prices and rents for the foreseeable future, with no end in sight for the imbalance between supply and demand in residential property markets across Australia. National valuation firm Herron Todd White reports that, nationally, home prices have increased for 17 consecutive months and the median home price is now $784,000. According to Oxford Economics, the nation’s housing supply and affordability crisis is likely to deepen and will remain a “chronic” issue for years to come. Oxford Economics is predicting we will fall well short of the Federal Government’s ambitious plan to build 1.2 million new homes over the next five years. A new report from the firm, Building in Australia, forecasts just 960,000 new homes will be built between now and 2029, well short of the 1.2 million target in the government’s National Housing Accord. The figures underline industry fears that it will struggle to keep up with an ongoing population rise fuelled by a wave of new migrants – and also not helped by labour shortages, dysfunctional planning systems and high construction costs. The report author Timothy Herbert, Oxford Economics head of property and building, says while new housing construction could well reach record levels by the end of the decade, it wouldn’t be enough to keep up with demand. Herbert says: “While industry capacity is showing signs of improvement in some areas, labour shortages remain that will place a speed limit on the early to mid stages of the recovery.” But he also says: “We will continue to experience a dwelling stock deficiency, but activity will inevitably recover in the residential sector. All build forms will contribute, driving total dwelling commencements to a new record level by the end of the decade. “Attached dwellings are forecast to join the upswing from FY2026 with support from falling interest rates, the upward rebasing of rents, co-ordinated social housing investment, and planning tweaks in key markets. Build-to-rent development has risen to around one-fifth of apartment starts and is expected to grow this share a little further through the late decade.” This report adds to the views of many others that the Federal Government’s stated goals for housing construction were never realistic and had no chance of being achieved – and therefore the shortage would not be adequately addressed, keeping pressure on prices and rents. The Housing Industry Association earlier this month warned the government would fall short of its housing targets by 64,000 properties in the first year alone. To reach the 1.2 million target by the end of June 2029, an average of 240,000 homes need to be built each year, a level that has never been achieved in the nation’s history. Only 963,000 new homes were completed over the past five years despite the pandemic HomeBuilder stimulus, which sent building levels to record highs. The HIA is calling for tax relief, planning reforms and incentives to attract more workers to the industry in order to avoid what it predicts will be a 180,000-home shortfall over the next five years. And the Government-appointed independent advisory body - the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council - has also shot down the government’s targets, estimating a homes shortfall of almost 300,000. It suggests the private market will only be able to supply 903,000 new homes to 2029.
04:4622/07/2024
Biggest Growth In 3 Years
Real estate consumers tend to place their attention on the markets receiving the most media headlines, which primarily are the ones that have shown the biggest growth in the past month or the latest quarter or year. But that is not the best measure of which locations have been showing the best growth. To get a better picture of locations that out-perform, you need to look at longer time frames, such as the past THREE years, not the past week or the past month as media tends to do. News media continues to obsess over the Perth market where prices currently are rising the fastest and they tend to imply that this boom will keep on rolling for years to come. It won’t. Perth has already had a couple of years of major price growth and there are already signs that the market has peaked. One of the things that would be more useful is for the media to take a broader focus of price performance, to give consumers a more enlightened picture of where the best growth has been. For example, where in Australia have we seen the biggest growth over the past three years? It would no doubt surprise many to learn that there are a dozen regional centres across Australia which have had considerably higher growth since 2021 than Perth – and most of the other capital cities as well. Research published by one of Australia’s best real estate analysts, Simon Pressley of Propertyology, shows that the best performers on capital growth over the past three years have been regional cities - and that the best of the capital cities has not been Perth, but Adelaide. So which location has recorded the highest growth in median house prices in the past three years? According to Propertyology, the answer is Bundaberg in Regional Queensland, where the median price has risen 63% in three years. Close behind comes Wagga Wagga in NSW, which has grown 56%. Then we have little-known Gympie near the Sunshine Coast, up 51%, alongside Hervey Bay a little further north in Queensland, which also increased 51%. In fifth place we have the first of the capital cities, Adelaide, which is up 50% on the pricing levels of 2021. Next, in order, we have the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Mandurah in WA, Rockhampton in Queensland, Tamworth in NSW, the Gold Coast in Queensland and Albury-Wodonga at the NSW-Victoria border. In 12th place, up 40% over three years, is Perth. Now, I’m happy to report that every one of those out-performing locations across the nation have featured strongly in our hotspots reports over the past 3-4 years. And we featured them BEFORE that big period of three-year growth started. In the 2020 editions of our National Top 10 Best Buys report, the Sunshine Coast was our top pick – and went on to be a national leader on price growth over three years. In the 2021 editions of Best Buys, Bundaberg, Tamworth, Albury-Wodonga, Wagga Wagga and the Gold Coast, as well as key locations in Adelaide and Perth, all featured in our national top 10 lists – BEFORE the three years of growth happened. And remember that, back in 2020 and early 2021, economists and the media generally were telling us that prices were going to crash everywhere. We simply did NOT agree – and we got it right. This speaks to the essence of intelligent investing – accessing good research reports that tell you where the highest growth will happen BEFORE it happens. NOT diving into markets where the media says prices have grown the most in the past year. That is the essence of BAD investing.
04:3322/07/2024
How To Create A 6 figure Passive Income Safely Webinar Replay
It’s the dream for many Australians: an annual income above $100,000 without working. It sounds too good to be true, but with sensible – and safe – investment strategies it’s possible. And it can be done in less than 10 years. Investment expert Danny Buxton says investors can steadily build a portfolio of six properties and give themselves multiple options to create a six-figure passive income. He has done it himself and clients of his business Triple Zero have achieved it. “There are different ways you can do it,” Buxton says. “We do it with new-build properties. The key to success is having the right team of experts around you.” Join him and Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder at a special webinar event that was held on Wednesday 17 July to find out how to make this elevated version of The Great Australian Dream a reality. Buxton will demonstrate how it works by presenting four real-life case studies. Anyone who thinks about early retirement and a comfortable lifestyle without going into the office every day needs to register for this life-changing webinar. Hosted by: Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting with special guest Danny Buxton, CEO of Triplezero Property Group www.triplezeroproperty.com.au [email protected]
59:1917/07/2024
True Cost of Housing Taxes, Fees and Charges
For a long time I have argued that housing is expensive in Australia because politicians have made it so – AND keep making decisions that add to the cost. The value of all residential real estate in this country is under-pinned by the cost of creating new dwellings – and those costs keep rising, way beyond the rate of inflation. One of the biggest elements in the cost of new homes is the taxation component. The research shows that a massive share of the cost of creating a new dwelling in Australia is taxes, fees and charges at all three levels of government. The Federal Government, the various state governments and local government authorities all use residential real estate as a cash cow – in other words, they milk it for revenue. Over the past 5-10 years, there have been a number of research reports which quantified how much of the cost of new dwellings comprises government imposts. Some of that research has come from the building industry and some have been independent research reports by credible organisations. And they have all arrived at similar conclusions: that somewhere between 30% and 50% of the cost of a new home in Australia is taxes, fees and charges at the three levels of government. Why is it 30% to 50%? Because the percentage differs depending on location. And now that reality has been confirmed by a new research report by the Property Council of Australia in Queensland – which has found that one third of the cost of new homes and apartments in that state is made up of government charges. The report says: “The Queensland Government’s promise of delivering ‘a home for every Queenslander’ cannot be fulfilled under the current tax model.” The ‘Stacked Against Us’ research report shows that government taxes, fees and charges make up 32 per cent of the total cost of a new house and land package in Queensland and 33.3 per cent of a new apartment. For a $730,000 mortgage, that equates to $233,440 in taxes, fees and charges. The report says: “The impact of these tax settings is seeing Queenslanders spend the first nine years of a 30-year mortgage package paying off prohibitive taxes, fees and charges – plus interest.” And the report also says: “Queensland is in the grips of a housing affordability crisis. A key reason why houses aren’t affordable is the increasing burden of taxes and regulatory costs in the development of new houses and apartments. “Taxes on new homes are a double whammy – they increase costs (and therefore sale price) of new builds, in turn increasing the costs of buying or renting established homes.” The report points out that, over the past three years, the Queensland Government has experienced a $3.5 billion in windfall transfer duty receipts alone - representing a 29 per cent increase in receipts above the forecast level. The situation in Queensland is being replicated across Australia. It’s worse in New South Wales. In Sydney, the taxation component of a new dwelling on a block of land can be as high as 50%. It’s becoming diabolically bad in Victoria, which has by far the highest taxes on residential real estate of anywhere in the nation. The message to politicians is clear: if you really want to create affordable housing, as you say you do, stop treating the process of creating new homes for Australian families as a cash cow.
04:2317/07/2024
Drop in Listings of Homes for Sale
Economists don’t understand residential real estate very well and they’re scratching their collective heads over why prices keep rising when interest rates are high. Here’s a couple of simple things to help them out: one is that, historically, there’s no evidence that rising interest rates lead to falling property prices. There’s nothing unusual about what’s currently happening in Australian property markets. But the key factor is that we have very high demand for real estate, fuelled by record population growth, at a time of incredibly low supply. The rental shortage is well documented. But another statistic that depicts under-supply is the incredibly low level of listings in many parts of the nation. The number of homes for sale is at dramatically low levels. In June, the number of national residential property listings decreased by 8.3% compared to May. Part of that was a 13% decline in the number of new listings of homes for sale, according to SQM Research. Notably, all major cities experienced a decrease in their listings in June. Adelaide recorded the largest monthly decrease in total listings, falling by over 15%. Melbourne and Perth followed, both recording decreases of 12%. Perth recorded the largest annual decrease of 32%, while Adelaide, Brisbane and Darwin also had big falls in the number of homes for sale. The data on listings correlates generally with the results we are seeing with prices. The cities with the biggest declines in the number of properties for sale – Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane – are the ones with the major escalation in prices. Cities where listings remain higher than a year ago – like Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart – are the weakest performers on price growth recently. In Melbourne, for example, listings are 12% higher than a year ago. It illustrates, yet again, that we don’t have a single property market in Australia, but lots of local markets doing different things. And it also shows that supply and demand factors will override other issues, such as high interest rates. A new factor now coming into the equation is the Federal Government’s tax cuts, which are likely to add to demand and put further upward pressure on prices by increasing borrowing capacity. According to an analysis done by Shore Financial, borrowing capacity would increase by 4% for those with an income of $90,000 and 5% or more for those with an income of $100,000 or more. According to Mortgage Choice, the borrowing capacity of a buyer with a $100,000 income could increase by about $25,000 while someone earning $150,000 could borrow about $37,000 more. In the meantime, the capacity of Australians to cut through all the barriers and buy real estate is shown in the lending figures – including the rise in the size of the average loan, which now sits at $625,000. Sally Tindall, research director at comparison website, RateCity.com.au., says this: “Over the last two years, buyers have seen their maximum borrowing capacity plummet, in some cases by hundreds of thousands of dollars, as a result of the RBA hikes, and yet the average new loan size has hit a new record high. Tindall says: “It’s astounding to think owner-occupiers are, on average, taking out larger loans than ever before, despite the fact the cash rate is sitting at a 12-year-high.” Maybe it’s not so astounding, given that demand from owner-occupiers and from investors remains high and supply continues to be low, putting further upward pressure on prices.
04:4517/07/2024
Brisbane and Queensland
Brisbane and Queensland increasingly are emerging as the property market destination with leading metrics pointing to out-performance in real estate. A couple of months ago Hotspotting published its annual report with Australia’s largest comparison website Canstar - the one we call Rising Stars – which analyses the capital city and state regional markets across Australia and ranks them for future growth prospects based on five key metrics. And the leading market jurisdiction to emerge from that process was Queensland, including both Brisbane and Regional Queensland. The Sunshine State has also, more recently, achieved nation-leading status in the latest population data published by the ABS. Finance data also confirms an increase in loans to both owner-occupiers and investors, with the average loan size in Queensland at an all-time high. In the Rising Stars report each year, we use five key metrics to rank the 14 major market jurisdictions in the nation - the eight capital cities and six state regional markets. The report with Canstar ranks the 14 market jurisdictions from 1 to 14 on their prospects for growth in the coming year. The 2024 edition of Rising Stars ranked Brisbane No.1 - the market with the best prospects to provide growth in the next year or so. And the No.1 regional market in the nation, using this methodology, was Queensland. Brisbane was a standout on all the five metrics we used to arrive at our ratings - sales activity trends, recent price movements, vacancy rates, rental growth trends and infrastructure spending. Regional Queensland ranked in the top 4 nationally on three of the five metrics and it also produced solid ratings on the others. The trend we call The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is still pumping, with large numbers of people relocating from the biggest cities to regional areas in pursuit of a different lifestyle at cheaper prices. The latest data and analysis from a range of sources, including the ABS, Regional Australia Institute and real estate data company CoreLogic, confirms that this remains a major demographic force, with significant consequences for real estate. And Queensland is the national leader in this category, gaining the most of any state or territory from internal migration in 2023 – that’s people moving from one part of Australia to another. The only other state or territory to achieve a net gain in its population from internal migration was WA. All others were net losers – which means many Australians are relocating and most of them are going to Queensland for its climate, lifestyle and relevant affordability for homes. This is being reflected in the price data. According to PropTrack, Brisbane unit prices have increased 17% in the year ending 30 June, while Regional Queensland rose 12% - while for houses, Brisbane rose 14% and Regional Queensland 11%. This ranks both Brisbane and Regional Queensland among the best in the nation on capital growth – and the key factor is that all the indicators suggest that the out-performance of Queensland markets, generally speaking, is set to continue.
04:0417/07/2024
Household Wealth
The latest government data shows that household wealth in Australia continues to rise and residential property is the main reason for that. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics has shown that the wealth of Australian households has risen for a sixth consecutive quarter, with residential land and house prices the largest contributor. The ABS figures indicate that household wealth on average increased 2.7 per cent in the March Quarter. In raw numbers, our collective wealth increased by $431 billion - to reach over $16 trillion. Those numbers are probably meaningless to most people – but the total wealth of Australian households is now 10 per cent higher than it was a year ago. Residential land and dwellings were the largest contributors to quarterly growth in household wealth. And the ABS figures show that, overall, residential property accounts for two-thirds of our wealth. Dr Mish Tan, who is the ABS head of finance statistics, says that “Rising asset values continue to drive growth in household wealth, with house prices continuing to increase.” Other ABS data shows ongoing growth in loans for the purchase of residential real estate. And the growth in lending to buy property is occurring both for owner-occupiers, including first-home buyers, and for investors. The figures emphasise just how important residential property is in the economic life of the nation and how the ongoing growth in property values underpins the financial fortunes of most Australian households.
02:3308/07/2024
Cheapies with Prospects
Investors come to property markets in many different shapes and sizes, but our observation is that most are seeking a level of affordability. The official data shows that most Australians seeking to buy investment properties are not wealthy, with most having incomes below $100,000, and most have just one property or are buying a rental property for the first time. This dictates, for many, a purchase somewhere in the range from $400,000 to $600,000. Fortunately, there continue to be options in regional Australia where buyers can access houses in this price range in locations which have good prospects for future capital growth. Our day-to-day research shows that investors can buy in regional areas at affordable prices, achieve above-average rental yields and look forward to good price growth. That old attitude that you have to make a choice between strong capital growth or high rental yields is one of the great misconceptions of residential real estate. If you choose your location well, you can have a good combination of both. Those seeking to buy in that price range between $400,000 to $600,000 can still find possibilities for houses in the cheaper areas of some of our capital cities – and, increasingly, investors who are aware of the current trends can find good options in the market for units and townhouses. In cities like Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne, you can buy units in inner-city areas in that affordable price range. The rise and rise of apartments and townhouses as the dwelling of choice for many important cohorts has meant that attached dwellings are increasingly challenging detached dwellings on capital growth, while providing cheaper buy-in prices and higher rental yields. So, how can you find out more about the possibilities? By reading our new Cheapies with Prospects reports. We have two editions of the Cheapies reports – the city edition and the regional edition – and in these reports the key criteria are that the locations have affordable options and the credentials for capital growth. The new editions are available now and provide clues to the places you can look to find that precious combination of affordability, good rental yields and potential for growth.
03:0908/07/2024
The Current Lending Landscape with Lucky Velasquez - Webinar Replay
Unlock the Secrets to Securing the Best Loans in Today’s Market! Whether you are an investor, real estate professional, financial planner, buyer’s agent, or investment advisor looking to navigate the complexities of the current lending landscape? Join us for an exclusive webinar that will equip you with the knowledge and tools to secure the best loan products and deals available today. Hosted by: Tim Graham, General Manager of Hotspotting with special guest Lucky Velasquez, CEO of financebetter Webinar Highlights: Shopping for Policy vs. Rates: Learn how to prioritise policies over just rates to maximise your loan benefits. Understanding General Policies: Get a comprehensive overview of the key policies shaping the lending market. Best P&I and I/O Rates: Discover the most competitive Principal and Interest and Interest Only rates available. Cash Outs: Identify which lenders are currently hesitant and which ones are more flexible with cashouts. Self-Employed & SMSF Loans: Find out the best loan options for self-employed individuals and SMSF's, from major banks to mid-tier lenders. Private Lending: Explore lending options that focus on security rather than income. 100% Lending with Majors: Learn about the opportunities for 100% lending with major banks. To connect with Lucky and his team, please visit www.financebetter.com.au
58:5705/07/2024
It's Not All About FHBs
The unfortunate reality is that the core problems afflicting housing markets don’t get fixed because politicians don’t understand the problems AND they’re unwilling to consult with the people who do. If a state government gets the message that’s there’s a serious rental shortage, the only response will be to announce they’re going to build a million new dwellings over the next 10 or 20 years – which doesn’t address the core issue at all and is unlikely to ever be delivered anyway. Politicians are incapable of coming up with anything else as a response to an immediate and pressing issue. If a state government gets the message that housing affordability is a big issue, the only response will be to announce grants or stamp duty concessions for first-home buyers. This, too, does not address the core issue – the high cost of housing in Australia and in particular the ridiculously high cost of building new dwellings – but it’s all they have in their kit bag of ideas. And this speaks to one of the core issues for the dwelling industry – politicians appear to believe that the only people in society who deserve any consideration or assistance are first-home buyers. And that’s reflected in the state and territory budgets delivered recently: a number of governments have announced measures to assist first-home buyers. Tasmania has decided that first-home buyers will pay no stamp duty on a home costing less than $750,000. South Australia has announced a similar measure, while Queensland says it will provide stamp duty discounts for first-home buyers paying less than $700,000 for a home. From the viewpoint of first-home buyers, that’s better than nothing but it doesn’t address the very high cost of dwellings or the shortages that are causing prices and rents to rise. And it doesn’t help anyone other than first-timers. What about other real estate consumers? What about second-time buyers? What about downsizers? What about investors who supply 90% of the homes that people rent, where there’s a chronic ongoing shortage. Consider second-time buyers. They might be a young couple who bought a small apartment as an affordable first dwelling. But now they’re starting a family and need to upgrade to a larger home. There is no assistance and no concessions for them. The costs of selling and buying elsewhere are huge, with stamp duty a massive impost. Politicians have often made statements urging older Australians to downsize – to sell the family home now that the kids are adults and have moved on, and make those family homes available to young buyers. Apart from the daunting prospect of moving house, the big issue that stops many people from downsizing is the hideous cost of selling their home and buying elsewhere. Based on the national median price for a house, the total costs of relocation can be around $100,000 – with a huge chunk of that being stamp duty on the purchase of the next home. But most state and territories don’t recognise this reality. Tasmania is an exception. It has a 50% stamp duty concession for pensioners downsizing. If politicians were genuine and fully understood the issue, stamp duty would be abolished for downsizers. And then we have investors, that cohort that politicians and journalists like to vilify and demonise – and misrepresent as greedy rich bastards ripping off the system. The reality is that the typical investor buyer is young, earning less than $100,000 and is buying for the first time or owns one other property. Landlords are in short supply and people need to be encouraged and incentivised to buy properties and make them available for long-term rental. Right now, there are no incentives to take on that very big risk and burden in the hope of making gains in the future. There are many, many disincentives, including land tax, capital gains tax, onerous state laws favouring tenants - and escalating costs, including interest rates, insurance premiums, council rates and maintenance costs. These people need and deserve financial incentives – and, given that investors usually pay more in stamp duty than home buyers, it would be both wise and fair to provide stamp duty concessions or exemptions to investors to encourage more rental supply. But don’t hold your breath. The thought would never occur to politicians, who appear to believe that the only cohort in the community that warrants assistance with the high cost of dwellings is first-time home buyers.
05:2302/07/2024
Latest Population Data
One of the core reasons the national shortage of dwellings is so serious is that it coincides with a record increase in the nation’s population. The latest data shows that Australia’s population grew 651,000 in 2023, the highest number in the nation’s history. 84% of that growth was attributed to overseas migration. Now, the record level of population growth last year did NOT cause the shortage of dwellings including the under-supply of rental homes. The seeds of the shortage were sewn years earlier by bad government policy and have been exacerbated by bad governance every year since. But that very high level of population growth has made a serious problem more dire. Australia now has a population of 27 million, up 2.5% in 2023. All states and territories recorded population growth during last year, although many of them were net losers of population to interstate migration. It was overseas migration and natural increase that allowed the weakest jurisdictions to record increases, despite losing population from people leaving to live elsewhere in Australia. New South Wales, the most populous state, did not record the biggest rise in numbers - Victoria added more to its population (186,491) than NSW did (185,459) both in raw numbers and in percentage terms. Queensland also had a big rise, adding 141,378 people - because it had by far the largest net gain from interstate migration. Notably, every state and territory was a net loser through interstate migration EXCEPT Queensland and Western Australia - which means lots of people are relocating and most of them are moving to Queensland or to WA. WA in fact recorded the biggest population increase in percentage terms last year, rising 3.31%, followed by Victoria (up 2.78%) and Queensland (2.62%) The places with the weakest growth were Tasmania and the Northern Territory, which both were net losers to internal migration but gained a little from overseas migration. NSW made the biggest gains from overseas migrations but was the biggest net loser from internal migration. So, what does all that mean for real estate? Based on the population trends, where would you be buying real estate? Based on these numbers, you would be focusing on Queensland and Victoria, as well as WA - although we continue to urge caution on the frenzied Perth market. And where would you be avoiding? Tasmania and the Northern Territory, which both have weak economies and negative population figures. But it pays to keep in mind that there is data to consider OTHER THAN population trends.
03:3902/07/2024
Government Makes Key Issues Worse
The most concerning thing about the unprecedented shortages which afflict Australian real estate markets is not that they are driving up rents and prices across the nation. Alarming though that is for tenants and for first-home-buyers, the truly concerning thing is the myriad ways in which our elected representatives keep making those problems much, much worse. Every time a state or territory government passes legislation or announces a policy move or hands down a budget which impacts on the rental shortage and housing affordability issue, they make it worse – not better. This is the unsung scandal of Australian politics – that, at a time when the cost of living is such a big issue for so many people, the biggest single cost in the budget of most households (the cost of accommodation) keeps getting worse because our politicians keep making decisions that make it more and more costly. In recent weeks we’ve witnessed the delivery of the Federal Budget and state and territory Budgets– and there’s not a single measure in any of those budgets which deals with the high cost of building and buying houses, or with the chronic shortage of rental properties which is causing residential rents to rise and rise. But there are numerous measures in those state and federal budgets which, directly and indirectly, make those core housing issues worse. And the big-spending pre-election vote-buying handouts in some of those budgets have added fuel to inflation which is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer. If Australia had a news media worthy of its place in society, there would be headlines screaming about this every day. What we do have, every day, is articles and commentary reminding us that there’s a shortage, items on the plight of tenants and on the lack of affordability in real estate – but there is little or no coverage of the steady flow of measures from politicians which continue to make all the problems worse. And there has been little or no commentary on the reality that none of the budgets handed down in recent weeks contain any measures to directly address the shortage of homes available for rental. Some state budgets have policies to build more social housing over the next 4-5 years, but nothing to address the immediate shortage of tenancies. There has not been a single measure to provide encouragement or incentives to the people who provide over 90% of the homes people rent – private mum-and-dad investors. What there has been, notably in the state budgets from the governments of New South Wales and Victoria, and in other policies they have announced, is a series of measures which increase the costs on the people who provide the product that’s in short supply, particularly with new or increased taxes. The industry has sought to warn governments that measures like these will likely worsen the dire shortage situation by forcing investor owners to sell up – or further worsen the plight of tenants by forcing landlords to increase rents. Investors owners have experienced massive increases in their costs recently, with higher interest rates, higher council rates, higher insurance premiums, higher maintenance costs – and, in the case of Victoria and NSW, major hikes in land tax and other taxes. This has meant that rental properties that previously paid their own way are now in a serious loss situation. This forces owners to either sell or increase the price of the product they provide, which is a home for rent. Victoria has exacerbated the problems in that state by introducing new requirements on the standard on the dwellings which will force owners to spend between $5,000 and $10,000 on upgrades. This will tip many owners over the edge and force them the sell – and their tenants will lose their homes. This is already happening. A new report has found that over 3,000 investors sold their Melbourne properties in May alone – and, across Victoria, almost 4,000 rental properties are listed for sale, according to Suburbtrends. Given the strong anti-investor stance of the Victoria state government, the properties being sold are unlikely to be bought by investors, so they will be lost from the pool of rental properties – and vacancy rates will continue to fall, which puts further upward pressure on rents. One of Australia’s most respected property analysts, Simon Pressley of Propertyology, has said his business will not recommend Victoria to investors until there was a change in attitude from the state government. The firm is instead steering would-be investors to specific locations in other states. He has warned that the lack of new investment in Victoria had made the situation for tenants “ugly”. But it’s not only Victoria. It’s also happening in New South Wales, with thousands of investor-owned properties currently listed for sale. The state budget in NSW includes significant increases in land tax – and, according to multi-award-winning buyers ‘agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer, the changes will cause more investors to sell in NSW and will also prompt intending buyers to avoid NSW. The NSW state budget also imposes a major Emergency Services Levy burden on property owners - and increases taxes on foreign investors, which will also have the impact of reducing rental supply. The Property Council said the NSW budget bombshell “beggars belief”. The Council’s NSW executive director Katie Stevenson says: “It’s a massive cost for property owners facing a once-in-a-generation housing supply and affordability crisis.” The Australian’s wealth editor James Kirby commented that Sydney’s “prime position as the nation’s hottest property investment market is now in jeopardy”, with investors likely to be driven away from the city. The national president of PIPA, Nicola McDougall, said about NSW: “This has come out of nowhere. It’s going to drive rents higher and it’s going to force investors to sell up, just like it has in Melbourne – I really wonder: does the NSW Government understand this?” And my answer would be: No, they really haven’t got a clue. Or, if they do understand, they don’t care about the plight of the one-third of households in NSW who rent their accommodation. In Queensland, where the State Government faces an upcoming election, the State Budget has thrown lots of electioneering cash at Queensland families to help them pay increasingly high electricity bills and for car registration fees, and there was a renters relief package – but there was nothing to increase the supply of rental properties and reduce the cost of building new homes. The Queensland Budget stated the ridiculous objective of building a million new homes by the year 2046 – ridiculous because it’s based on the current government remaining in power for the next 22 years, when the polls suggest they won’t survive in government beyond the state election in October this year. And, like other states, Queensland has slugged foreign investors with higher taxes – which will have the impact of further reducing rental supply and preventing the construction of major apartment buildings. And so the process continues. The rental shortage has been created from years of politicians discouraging, demonising and disincentivising investors – and they continue to make the situation worse for tenants with ongoing measures which punish investors and exacerbate the shortage. The high cost of building new homes, whether they be houses or townhouses or apartments, has been largely, though not entirely, caused by imposts from various levels of government, including local councils, but in particular by state governments. They keep changing the guidelines in ways that add to those costs and they keep slugging builders and developers with taxes, fees and charges – as well as mind-numbing bureaucratic delays which also add to the costs in times of high interest rates. The result is that the standard house-and-land package is so costly as to be increasingly unaffordable for young buyers – and they keep adding more and more layers of cost, including the new construction code which adds up to $40,000 to the cost of building your standard brick and tile house. As a society, we should be outraged by this. Our elected representatives have made housing increasingly unaffordable, both for purchase and for rental, and each passing month they make it worse, while blaming others for the problems.
09:3501/07/2024
Rising Prices Not "Weird"
According to our national newspaper, The Australian, the fact that property prices have continued to rise in spite of higher interest rates is, and I quote, “weird” – and apparently the people described by the newspaper as “experts” are scratching their heads about it. The article that contained this nonsense was just another plank in the ever-growing pile of misinformation about real estate issues perpetrated by economists and journalists who don’t allow their ignorance of property issues to prevent them from commenting about them. Journalist Anthony Keane is the personal finance editor at The Australian. And given that he has a fancy title and he works for this major standard-bearer Newscorp publication, the national newspaper, we the readers are entitled to expect him to know something about the subjects on which he pontificates. Sadly, he does not. In claiming that it’s unusual, indeed “weird”, for prices to rise when interest rates have increased, he is demonstrating that he’s not a student of history and he doesn’t waste any time on research before banging away on his computer keyboard. He simply regurgitates the outpourings of economists who subscribe to the kindergarten analysis view that falling interest rates mean property prices rise and rising interest rates mean property prices fall. That pretty much sums up the views of senior economists working for the big four banks and others like them. They continue to believe that interest rate trends dictate everything in real estate, although there is a mountain of evidence that confirms this is not the case – notably in the past 18 months. Many of Australia’s most spectacular property booms have occurred during times of high and and rising interest rates, including in the late 1980s and the early years of this century, when mortgage rates were higher than now and rising, but market activity and prices kept on increasing. Last year, we had the RBA continuing to lift the official interest rate – we saw a total of 13 monthly rises by the time they paused – and yet we had substantial price growth nationally, including boom-level price increases in several of our capital cities and also in several regional markets. According to Anthony Keane, this represents what he calls “a new world of weirdness”. The reality is that it’s not weird, it’s quite normal. And the people who are apparently “scratching their heads” about it are not experts. If they had expertise, they would understand the dynamics in real estate markets and be unsurprised at the price outcomes. People who are really bad at predicting housing markets and price outcomes, like the big bank economists, would rather claim the market is wrong than admit that they are. The past 18 months in real estate has not been an aberration or a unprecedented maverick event – it’s simply another demonstration of the reality that interest rate events are NOT the prime influence on trends in real estate. Right now there are far more powerful forces in play, including the imbalance between supply and demand. So, is this (as suggested by The Australian) a new world of weirdness? No, it’s not, it’s simply business as usual in property markets across Australia, in which interest rates are a factor but not a particularly powerful force – in times when the biggest influence is the shortage of everything important in real estate at times of high demand, causing prices, rents and yields to rise in good locations. Far from this being a case of “weird is the new normal”, normal continues to be normal.
04:3425/06/2024
EOFY Special: Save Big on Real Estate Insights & Memberships
The new 2025 Financial Year is upon us and, as we do every year, we are making special offers to real estate consumers and to our business customers. One of the key factors for success for real estate investors is basing decisions on quality research. As we launch into the new financial year, it’s crucial to have the best information at your fingertips. To help set up investors with a suite of reports that cover all the key bases, we’ve put together a bundle of reports that nominate great locational options for capital growth, for rental yields and positive cashflow, as well as our Australian Property Guide that provides information about the key rules and costs like stamp duty in each state and territory. So this special bundle provides the new edition of National Top 10 Best Buys, as well as National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots report and the Australian Property Guide at a price that saves you $248 if you bought each of those three reports separately. Having these three reports gives you a major head start on the competition for the best places to buy in Australia in FY2025. For real estate professionals we have two key membership products, Property Pro and Enterprise. These provide a range of features, including access to our new one-stop-shop research portal, all our hotspots reports and a range of other key benefits. Our EOFY special deals provide a saving of $1,500 for the Property Pro membership and an annual saving of $3,000 for the Enterprise membership. Overall, it’s a package of special deals that has something for everyone, whether you’re an investor who wants to buy, an investor who plans to sell or a real estate professional with a business seeking to provide the best advice to customers. And if you want to take advantage of these offers, you need to take action this week – as the special deals expire on June 30.
02:5325/06/2024
Research Beats Hype
The most successful property investors have some features in common - and making decisions based on genuine research is one of the key ones. But those people are relatively rare. My observation of the behaviour of investors over four decades shows that more people make investment decisions based on media soundbites than on real research. And, as we embark on a new financial year with all kinds of competing forces in play in real estate, it’s more important than ever that real estate consumers base their decisions on research, rather than media frenzy and herd mentality. Far too many people are leaping recklessly into the Perth property market because mainstream media keeps telling them that prices are booming and will keep on doing so, backed by commentary from real estate people who have a vested interest in prolonging the boom. At Hotspotting, we think this media soundbite approach is fraught with peril and that many of the people diving into the Perth market - grabbing anything that’s for sale and paying more than the asking price, without regard for the quality or location of the property - will regret their decisions made in haste without proper due diligence. It’s a reflection of those views that our new edition of the National Top 10 Best Buys report does not include any locations in Perth. Based on detailed research, we think this market has peaked (after three years of major price growth) and will not be the national leader on capital growth in FY2025, as some are predicting – or hoping. We think there are other, better places for people to be putting their money – safer, less volatile, less heated markets with good potential for capital growth. Well-researched investors buy in areas with growth credentials BEFORE prices escalate. Our choices for good locations to buy in FY2025 are based on research-based knowledge of the key trends driving demand in the best locations across Australia. We’re not focused on short-term sugar-hit gains; we’re focused on places we think will do well in the medium to long term. We base our choices on economic factors, demographic trends and on the locations of influence from big infrastructure developments. At Hotspotting, we are constantly on the look-out for evidence of change in property market trends and individual locations. Places that have been weak performers on capital growth in the past can become the leaders of the future because something major has changed in that market – often caused by the development of major new infrastructure. Sometimes it’s a significant demographic shift – such as the trend that has seen large numbers of people leaving the biggest cities and moving to smaller cities or to regional areas, in search of a different and more affordable lifestyle, enabled by technology. In the past 12 months we have observed a surge in demand for units and townhouses by a range of buyer cohorts, for a host of different reasons – and this is changing one of the dominant paradigms of real estate: that houses outperform units on capital growth. We have also seen he re-emergence of markets that had exceptional price growth from 2020 to 2022, have had 18 months of correction or flatlining and now are starting to grow again. We call them “the second wind markets”. Real estate is dynamic, with change as a constant: if you read the new edition of our National Top 10 Best Buys report, you will know about all the key trends that matter in the new 2024-25 financial year.
04:5125/06/2024
Depreciation Impact
The report we call The Pulse provides critical intelligence for property investors because it shows how you can get both a high rental yield and excellent capital growth if you choose your location well. Recent editions of The Pulse have featured locations where rents have grown 10-15-20% in a year, but so have property values – providing the ultimate win-win-win situation for property investors. Hotspotting produces this report in association with leading national experts on property depreciation, Washington Brown – who provide additional key elements to the data in this report. The figures from Washington Brown show that intelligent application of depreciation tax benefits can create a significant increase in the rental yield of your property. It depends on a number of factors, including the tax bracket you are in, but typical depreciation benefits for an investment property can lift a 6.3% gross rental yield to 6.75%. A 6.4% yield can improve to 6.8% or 6.9%. Tyron Hyde, the CEO of Washington Brown says that “Depreciation is the secret sauce when it comes to property investing - and can turn a good, positively geared property into an even greater property! “Better yet, depreciation can turn a negatively geared property into a positively geared scenario.” Tyron Hyde reminds us that property investors are able to claim the wear and tear of a property against their taxable income, which should be factored into the yield of a property. Depreciation is a non-cash deduction, which means, unlike all other expenses on your property, you don’t have to pay for it. The depreciation amount you can claim is built into your property when you buy it; you just need a Quantity Surveyor like Washington Brown to calculate the number. So, if you get a copy of The Pulse, you can learn a number of key things for property investors: 50 locations which are affordable, where you get above average rental yields, and which have good potential for capital growth – and the important data from Washington Brown which shows how depreciation benefits can turn a good rental yield into a great rental yield.
03:1720/06/2024
Victoria Gets Worse
Victoria has become the state that property investors don’t want to know about, because its politicians at both state and local level appear to have declared open season on investors. The State Government in Victoria has a budget deficit problem and has made the decision that many politicians in Australia make, which is to resort to the housing market as their favourite cash cow. They can’t slug home-owners or first-home buyers with new or higher taxes because that’s politically unpalatable – but investor owners are relatively few in number so they can attack them with less damage politically. It will result in fewer investors, therefore fewer rental properties, and therefore higher rents for tenants, but hopefully (in the minds of the state politicians) tenants will blame their landlords rather than the government. So the State Government in Victoria has smashed owners of investment properties in the state with big increases in existing taxes – notably land tax – and with the introduction of new taxes. It’s almost as if they see investors as a criminal class and they all need to be punished. If that isn’t enough, now the State Government has announced it will mandate the upgrade of a range of components inside rental homes This would force landlords to install insulation, draught-proofing, cooling and heating systems and new shower heads – and the estimates for the cost impact of that range from $5,000 to $10,000. Consumers Affairs Minister Gabrielle Williams, displaying the out-of-touch divorced-from-reality quality so common among politicians, says this is a relatively small cost for property owners to wear and won’t be a problem for anyone. But for typical owners, an additional cost of $5,000 or $10,000 on top of huge increases in interest rates, insurance, maintenance costs and government taxes including land tax and council rates, this is a killer blow. There is already an exodus of investors from Victoria because of the recent tax increases and this new imposition of enforced upgrades will compel many more to sell up and leave the state. Veteran property commentator Jonathan Chancellor has described the Victorian State Government measures as “a lesson in what not to do” in the face of a rental shortage crisis. He said that the state bureaucracy had admitted that Melbourne’s rental supply may contract as a result – keeping in mind that it’s already alarmingly low. But it doesn’t end with this appalling state government. Local councils have already joined the increasingly popular political sport of demonising and punishing investors. The Merri-bek Council, or elements of it, want to take the assault on property investors to a new level. The plan is to double council rates on investment properties and reduce rates for everyone else. They say that, if it forces investors to sell and their properties are bought by owner-occupiers, that’s a great thing. In fact, according to the policy stated by the proponent, Cr James Conlan, that’s the main objective. The logic, if you can call it that, is that it will make homes available for purchase by first-home buyers. But most suburbs in this LGA have median house prices well above $1 million. The three Brunswick suburbs are all around $1.3 million. How many first-home buyers in Melbourne can pay over $1 million as their first foray into the property market. It’s simply not going to happen. But, beyond that, where will the tenants of these properties go? Who will provide the rental properties if the local council forces all investor owners to sell, which appears to be the ultimate objective of this appalling proposal. Vacancy rates in the postcodes of Merri-bek LGA are well below the already-low Melbourne average – many of them have vacancy rates around 0.5%, which is at crisis levels. Looking more broadly across the state, the number of homes occupied by renters in Victoria has fallen by 10,400 in just three months and 15,600 in a year. Government agency Homes Victoria’s most recent rental report, from the March quarter, reveals that the number of new lettings has dropped 12% in a year. The rental supply fall has coincided with a shortage of new homes being built, because of labour and supply constraints. It also coincides with an increase in land taxes paid by landlords and follows 13 interest rate rises since 2022. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released earlier this month revealed that housing loans taken out by investors in Victoria were well below the national average amid an exodus of investors from the property market. Ultimately, in the end, who are the biggest losers? Well, it’s the people who rent their homes. There is going to be considerably fewer of them in Melbourne and other parts of Victoria and there will continue to be upward pressure on rents. Unless, of course, someone is silly enough to implement a rental cap, which will cause even more investors to sell and create an even bigger rental shortage. A rental cap is no use to you if you can’t find a place to rent at any price, because nothing is available.
06:3520/06/2024
Affordability Deception
There are many so-called research reports in Australia which do a very poor job of providing useful, accurate, credible information to consumers – but the worst of the worst is a report called Demographia which pops up once every year to misinform Australians about affordability. This report, which is a shameless propaganda exercise by a developer lobby group, sets out to portray Australia as a place where no one – and I do mean no one – can afford to buy real estate. The lobby group is apparently trying to convince governments across Australia that the development industry is over-regulated and that this over-regulation is causing unaffordable housing everywhere – and I do mean everywhere – in Australia. This ridiculous report has been claiming for 20 years that the whole nation of Australian is unaffordable. And the latest edition of the report claims that significant chunks of Australia are and I quote, “impossibly unaffordable”. Now, think about it for a moment. If this was true, no one could afford to buy homes in Australia at all. Because, essentially, that’s what they’re claiming - that no one can afford to buy real estate. Clearly, that’s a ridiculous and preposterous claim because all over Australia there is a high level of sales activity and prices continue to rise in most locations. The latest official lending figures show that loans to owner-occupiers, to first-home buyers and to investors have all risen substantially in the past 12 months. There is high demand for homes and for investment properties and the high level of sales is causing prices to rise in most locations. Now, none of that would be possible if the Demographia report was credible and accurate – because it says the whole country is unaffordable. Indeed, it says our major cities are the most unaffordable in the world. But here’s the thing – the report doesn’t cover the world. It only compares Australia will a tiny proportion of the nations on the planet. There are over 200 countries in the world – and how many are included in this report? Just seven. Australia and six others. And yet it maintains that it can justify the claim that Australian cities are the most unaffordable in the world. Now, if common sense prevailed, you and I wouldn’t even be aware that this report exists because it’s so implausible and lacking in any merit whatsoever. But we DO know about it because news media in Australia doesn’t care about ethics or accuracy or fairness or credibility. Journalists, sadly, care only about the headline and don’t care that the information on which the headline is based is patently, blatantly and obviously false. Michael Bleby, who apparently is the Deputy Property Editor for the Australian Financial Review, was happy to report that Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide are all “impossibly unaffordable” and ran the headline “Impossibly unaffordable housing a social risk”. Bleby stated that Sydney is the world’s second-least affordable city for housing, based on the content of the Demographia report. Now, I’m assuming that Bleby has seen the report, because it would unprofessional and unethical in the extreme to make such claims without looking at the evidence. So I can only conclude that he doesn’t care too much about the substance of what he is writing, so long as it generates clickbait. News Corp journalist Aidan Devine put his name to an article that stated that three of our capital cities were ranked in the top 10 most unaffordable housing markets in the world – and then claimed that Australia was the least affordable housing market in the English-speaking world. So these journalists and others were happy to make these outrageous claims despite what the facts show us. I’ve read half a dozen different articles on this and only one of them mentioned, briefly, the small number of countries in the report. In Sydney, claimed by the report to be “impossibly unaffordable”, there were 73,290 homes sold to buyers in the past year. And the median house price rose 8.2% in the past 12 months, according to CoreLogic. In Melbourne, also claimed to “impossibly unaffordable”, 86,200 homes changed hands in 12 months, with house prices rising 2%. And in Adelaide, which is actually one of our most affordable capital cities - but also dubbed “impossibly unaffordable” by this shameless document - over 20,000 houses and apartments were purchased by buyers who were apparently unaware that the homes they were buying were utterly unattainable. And Adelaide house prices rose 14.3% in the past year, according to CoreLogic. So, if they were impossibly unaffordable before, they must be catastrophically unreachable now, after a further 14% increase in prices overall. Clearly the report on which all that media hot air is based is laughably and demonstrably rubbish. But you can sure that this time next year it will pop up again and come up with new sensationalist claims that aren’t supported by any scientific evidence – and our hopelessly shabby news media will be happy to publish it, because they don’t give a toss about providing you with real information and useful data.
06:4320/06/2024
No Money Down Investing with Lucky Velasquez
In this episode of "No Money Down: Smart Property Investment," Tim Graham is joined by Lucky Velasquez, the founder of FinanceBetter, to discuss innovative strategies for property investment with minimal initial capital outlay. Lucky shares his extensive experience in helping clients navigate financial hurdles and maximise their investment potential without the need for large upfront deposits. Key Topics Covered: Introduction to No Money Down Investing: What it means to invest with little to no initial capital. Common misconceptions about no-money-down strategies. Creative Financing Solutions: Alternative financing options and how they can be leveraged. Examples of successful no-money-down deals and the creative methods used to structure them. Risks and Rewards: Analysing the potential risks and rewards of no-money-down investments. How to mitigate risks through thorough research and due diligence. Market Insights and Trends: Current trends in the Australian property market. How economic conditions are shaping investment opportunities. Case Studies and Real-life Examples: Detailed case studies from Lucky's clients who have successfully implemented no-money-down strategies. Lessons learned and actionable tips for aspiring investors. To get in contact with Lucky, please visit www.financebetter.com.au
39:4314/06/2024
Interviews with the 1% - Melinda Jennison
Are you ready to take your investment journey to the next level? Look no further, because we have exciting news to share with you! We are thrilled to announce our new Hotspotting pre-recorded interviews with some of the top 1% of Australian investors who own 5 or more properties. As you may know, in the 2020-2021 financial year, only 0.87% of investors in Australia owned 5 or more investment properties. But what do these successful investors know that the majority don't? We have sat down with a number of them to get exclusive insights into their strategies, tips, and personal journeys. Our pre-recorded interviews bring you valuable knowledge and advice from Australian property experts who walk the walk and practice what they preach. Learn from their mistakes, successes, and unique perspectives on property investment. These interviews are a must-watch for anyone looking to build a successful investment portfolio and achieve financial freedom. With over 71% of investors owning only one investment property, we understand the challenges and uncertainties that come with growing your portfolio. That's why we have curated a series of interviews that exclusively feature investors with multiple properties. They represent the top 1% of Australian investors and have achieved remarkable success in their investment journey. Our pre-recorded interviews are available for you to watch at your convenience, so you can take in all the knowledge and insights at your own pace. Hear firsthand how they navigate the ever-changing property market and make profitable investment decisions. You'll be able to walk away with practical tips and strategies that you can implement in your own investment journey. About Melinda Jennison From a very young age Melinda developed an interest in real estate because her parents were property investors, so she learnt a lot from the conversations that they often had growing up. Melinda says she has been fortunate to have never rented, but instead bought her first home in Brisbane at the age of 18. This was the beginning of her own property journey. Melinda came from a research background, having completed a PhD in 2001. Instead of staying in academia she moved into real estate, with involvement in the building and construction industry and property development. Now as a buyers advocate and QPIA®, Melinda uses the skills she has acquired over the years to make evidence based property decisions, to accurately interpret data and translate that in an easy way for clients to understand, and analyse all sorts of property deals for herself and others. In September 2023, Melinda’s outstanding expertise in the property sector was recognised when she was elected President of the Real Estate Buyers Agents’ Association (REBAA). You can find out more about Melinda and Streamline Property Buyers by visiting https://streamlineproperty.com.au/
28:5011/06/2024
NSW Investor Boom
The latest lending data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics finds that loans to investors in New South Wales in April represented a 44% increase on the same time last year. That’s a major jump in buyer demand, but it does not surprise the team at Hotspotting, particularly after the analysis we have done on market trends for the Winter edition of The Price Predictor. Our research shows there is heightened buyer activity in selected locations, both in Sydney and in Regional NSW. The Price Predictor Index finds that some of the nation’s regional areas are the leading markets in the nation, including the Wollongong/Shoalhaven region in NSW. In the Winter edition of the PPI, we have nominated the Shoalhaven LGA as the strongest market among the nation’s municipalities, while the City of Wollongong also makes our National Top 10. The Price Predictor Index for several years has charted the trend we call The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle and our latest analysis suggests the demographic drift from the biggest capital cities is still pumping strongly. In some cases, the NSW regional markets of note are what we call “second-wind markets” -locations across Australia which were at the peak of their up-cycles in 2021 and then subsided in 2022 and 2023 – but are now showing signs of embarking on the next up-cycle, with improved activity late in 2023 and early in 2024. A prime example is Byron Bay which previously had a boom which, in reality, overshot true value – with property values doubling in two years. The median house price peaked at $3.5 million in mid-2022, but dropped markedly since to as low as $2.4 million. Now we see evidence in the sales data of a pickup in activity and also the first signs of prices recovering. The strong Albury-Wodonga regional city at the NSW-Victoria border was a boom market until mid-2022 – and now, after a flat period, is showing early signs of revival. The suburb of Albury is one of our National Top 50 Supercharged Suburbs in the Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index. Other standout locations include Newcastle and nearby areas such as Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens. Mid-coast centres like Forster and Taree are also travelling well. In Sydney, the top end is undoubtedly leading the Sydney market while the cheaper areas are struggling to maintain their previously high sales levels. Locations where houses sell for multiple millions of dollars are the strongest clusters for buyer activity, in a Greater Sydney market where sales levels have moderated a little but continue to be solid. Our analysis reveals three stand-out clusters of suburbs where sales activity is most vibrant, all of them at the upper end of the market – the municipalities of Woollahra, Waverley and Bayside. Within these LGAs, suburbs classified as rising markets include Bondi, Darling Point and Paddington. Inner-city areas which have been boosted by strong demand for apartments in the past year or so – Sydney City and the Inner West LGA - continue to generate good buyer demand. Rising suburbs in the City of Sydney include Surry Hills and Woolloomooloo, while Chippendale stands out for its consistency of performance. At the opposite end of the market spectrum, outer ring areas including the municipalities of Blacktown, Hills Shire and Penrith have lost momentum and have significant numbers of suburbs classified as declining markets. This is part of a notable trend nationwide which finds that new development areas are among the struggling markets with sales activity falling. The problems within the housing construction sector are well-documented, with building companies going broke amid rapidly rising costs and shortages of tradespeople and materials. We note that sales levels in the City of Blacktown, which has been a star performer in Sydney in recent years, have faded notably. It’s noteworthy that many of the declining suburbs have median house prices well above $1 million and no longer provide relative affordability, including Rouse Hill, The Ponds and Schofields. In The Hills Shire, an even more expensive market in the far north-west, sales activity generally has dropped notably and half its suburbs are now rated as declining markets. They include a number of suburbs which all have median house prices above $1.7 million and in some cases above $2 million. Listings of homes for sale have been trending upwards in the Hills District recently, so low sales volumes cannot be attributed to a shortage of properties. But beyond that hiccup in the outer Sydney market, New South Wales broadly presents as a place that is attracting strong buyer demand, both in Sydney and in regional markets, with an uplift in investor activity a key factor.
06:0910/06/2024
Why Builders Aren't Building
Home builders and property developers make their money creating new dwellings for Australian households. If they get it right, they can make lots of money doing what they do. When they decide NOT to do what they do, you have to ask why. Why are the builders of major projects of housing or apartments walking away from their plans? Why are big companies who have spent years and millions of dollars planning a major project making the decision not to build it? We’ve seen many instances recently. An example is the decision by AVJennings to abandon a major housing development near Caboolture in the outer northern suburbs of Greater Brisbane. This project would have added 3,500 new homes to a market where there is a desperate shortage. Brisbane is a market with high demand and a serious shortage of homes. Why would a big developer with a proven track record and the capacity to deliver these kinds of projects make the very big decision to walk away from the project? All that time and money wasted. The answer is: it’s simply not viable. AVJennings said massive cost escalations – including the infrastructure charges and delays in getting approvals imposed by local councils – meant the project was no longer viable. I have had discussions recently with developers who say that the cost of creating big residential projects is so high, it’s not economically and financially feasible. They would have to place such a high price on the end product that few households would be able to afford to buy the homes. A number of developers have spoken out about the impact that the cost impositions of local councils have on making projects difficult or unviable. Orchard Property Group managing director Brent Hailey says the major infrastructure costs imposed on them make it too expensive for them to build homes. Hailey said that, for example, developers in that Caboolture West precinct that AV Jennings has rejected had to pay for council infrastructure charges and also state government charges because it’s in a Priority Development Area. Hailey says: “We’re at this point now in SEQ where unless the solutions are put in place quickly, there’s going to be a rapid decline in affordability, forced by supply not meeting demand.” He says: “The problem facing developers is the cost of delivering the infrastructure and the balance between fully servicing those costs and trying to get an affordable home. There’s the normal council charges and the Priority Development Area (PDA) charges. During Covid-19 costs went through the roof, so now infrastructure is costing a lot more.” Here’s another issue which is preventing the creation of affordable homes in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s pledge to build 40,000 affordable homes through the Government’s $10bn housing fund will struggle to deliver any houses at all in Labor’s first term of office because only a handful of builders in Australia are eligible to participate in the program. Rules written into the Housing Australia Future Fund legislation require builders contracted to work on new social and affordable homes under the scheme to be accredited for working on government-funded projects. However, of the more than 400,000 construction companies registered in Australia, only around 500 are accredited by the Federal Safety Commissioner under the Work Health and Safety Scheme for eligibility to bid for head contracts funded directly or indirectly by the government. There are few if any residential builders accredited under the scheme in Tasmania and only a limited number in regional Australia. The industry claims the limitation threatens to severely hamper or stall Housing Australia’s ability to deliver its target of 40,000 social and affordable homes. This comes at a time when the new construction code being imposed by governments is adding $30,000 to $40,000 to the already-high cost of building new homes in Australia. These are just the latest events adding to a substantial list of situations which create the inevitable conclusion that we have a serious housing shortage in Australia, and very expensive new homes in this country, because of the short-sighted policies of politicians at all levels of government.
05:1410/06/2024
Investor Lending
Home loans to property investors jumped for a third-straight month in April, rising at a faster pace than loans to owner-occupiers. The value of new loans to investors rose 5.6% to $10.9 billion in April, to be up 36% compared with a year ago, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Part of that increase, according to the ABS, is an increase in the size of the average loan. The average size of an investor loan for the purchase of an existing home grew almost 10% since April 2023, from $592,000 to $648,000. The strongest markets were New South Wales (where investor lending increased 44%) and Queensland (where investor lending climbed about 46%). The higher rate of investor activity comes at a time when rents continue to rise, underpinned by very low vacancy rates, to compensate (partly, at least) for higher interest rates, as well as higher council rates, higher insurance costs and higher maintenance costs. Figures from property consultancy CoreLogic earlier this month showed rents recorded an annual rise of 9% in Sydney and 10% in Melbourne – which means rents in the two big cities are rising faster than prices at the moment. The rate of price growth is higher in smaller capital cities like Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, but rental increases are as high, or close to being as high, as the rise in sales prices in those cities. CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless says: “For most investors, higher yields will be welcome considering variable interest rates for investor loans are averaging 6.7%. “Given the high cost of debt, a large portion of leveraged investors are probably recording a cash flow loss despite the substantial rise in rental income.” The increased activity from investors is welcome, after a period of being well below historical averages – which, in simple terms, is why we have a rental shortage, given that investors provide over 90% of the homes rented by tenants in this country. The rise in buying activity by investors confirms the anecdotal evidence we have seen at Hotspotting. Right from the start of 2024, we have observed that many investors started this year with intent – and are taking action. This is desperately needed across Australia, as it’s the only way that the chronic shortage of rental homes will be improved.
03:1710/06/2024
Australia's Top Growth Suburbs Revealed!
Where’s the strongest suburb for future price growth in Australia? What’s the most consistent location for sales activity in the nation and therefore likely to deliver superior price growth? And what’s the absolute worst place to buy real estate right now? The answers to all those questions and a whole lot more are revealed in the new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index. Now, we publish a lot of great reports with unique insights into property markets across Australia - but this is undoubtedly our best report. The thing that’s so special about this report is that we do something that no one else does in Australian real estate - we chart trends with sales activity and use that to predict likely future movements in prices. We apply a rating to every suburb and town in the nation - whether the market is rising, or recovering, or fading, or declining. Our analysis of this data allows us to pinpoint the locations with the strongest trends in real estate across Australia - the ones most likely to deliver superior price growth. We also identify the places to avoid, the ones where market trends are negative. We pinpoint the best clusters of growth suburbs in the nation - the local government areas where suburbs collectively have the most positive trends with buyer demand. We also identify the winners and losers among the big market jurisdictions - the eight capital cities and six state regional markets. It’s fair to say that many of the findings will surprise a lot of people. There is so much priceless market intel in this one report - so, if you buy just one research report this year, this is the one to get - the new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index.
02:3205/06/2024
Price Predictor Index Winter Edition is Out Now!
I’m about to tell you what’s going to happen with property prices this year and I’m going to tell you why. The information real estate buyers MOST want to know is where to buy for superior capital growth, both in the short term and the long term. The problem for investors is that the research companies and the media don’t tell us that. They tell us what’s recently happened with property prices. They inform us about the past. And while that may be interesting, it doesn’t provide us with the really key information: what will happen with prices in the future. That’s where Hotspotting comes in. Our proven methodology has a track record of predicting the future successfully and often. And one of our core techniques is used to create the best of our stable of reports: The Price Predictor Index. The underlying principle is really simple but wonderfully effective. We don’t spend our time charting price movements - we devote our resources to following what’s happening with sales volumes - the number of sales in each location and whether they’re rising, flatlining or falling. History tells us that sales activity is a forward indicator of what will happen with prices. And the new Winter edition of the report provides important clues about which markets are rising and which ones are falling. Here are some of the key pieces of market intelligence that our new analysis provides:- The Perth boom has likely peaked and we urge caution for the many investors diving into this market after three years of big price growth. Melbourne prices will perform a lot better in 2024 than they did in the past two years. Some of the regional markets have stepped up as likely national leaders on price growth in the next 12 months. They include places like the Wollongong region, including in particular the Shoalhaven LGA; Gladstone in Central Queensland; and Albury-Wodonga at the Victoria-NSW border. Smaller capital cities which have been weak lately are showing solid signs of recovery and will do better in the next year, including Canberra and Darwin. Some of the iconic markets which had spectacular booms up to 2022 and have been in a correction phase since then, are now showing signs of moving into their next up-cycle. They include Byron Bay, the Sunshine Coast and the Mornington Peninsula. Other former boom markets that look to be heading into another period of growth include Albury-Wodonga, Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, Hervey Bay in Queensland and Launceston in Tasmania. Apartment markets in good locations in our biggest cities continue to attract buyers in large numbers with improved capital growth performance - Sydney City and the Inner West nearby are among the stand-outs. The Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index has other priceless intel - including the National Top 50 Supercharged Suburbs list, the 50 most consistent growth markets in the nation, the 10 leading local government areas in Australia and the 50 worst declining markets, the ones to avoid. From these lists, we nominate the No.1 best supercharged suburb, the nation’s most consistent location which is delivering big price growth - and the worst place to buy right now. And, if you want to know what they are, you’ll need to get a copy of the report.
04:3005/06/2024
From Beginner to Pro: Mastering the Art of Commercial Property Investment
Are you ready to elevate your property investment game? Join us for an exclusive webinar titled: "From Beginner to Pro: Mastering the Art of Commercial Property Investment." This insightful session is designed to equip you with the knowledge and strategies needed to thrive in the commercial property market. About the Webinar Hosted by Tim Graham, General Manager of Hotspotting.com.au, and featuring guest speaker Steve Palise, owner of Palise Property, this webinar will delve into the intricacies of commercial property investment. The author of 2 books and creator of The Commercial Property Institute, Steve, who retired before the age of 30 thanks to his impressive property portfolio, now dedicates his expertise to helping others achieve financial freedom. His analytical approach, rooted in his background as a chartered mechanical and structural design engineer, provides a unique and practical perspective on property investment. Key Topics Covered What is Commercial Property? Understanding the basics and significance of commercial property. Difference Between Residential and Commercial Property Key distinctions and their implications for investors. Myths of Commercial Property Debunking common misconceptions and myths. Benefits of Commercial Property Exploring the advantages and financial potential of commercial investments. Risks of Commercial Property Identifying potential risks and how to mitigate them. When is Commercial Property Right for You? Assessing if and when commercial property aligns with your investment goals. To take advantage of Steve's amazing offer of enrolling in The Commercial Property Institute's online course for FREE for a short-time only (usually $4,997), visit www.commercialpropertyinstitute.com.au and use the code word HOTSPOTTING
48:2805/06/2024
Population Hotspots
It’s important for property investors to understand the difference between a population and home building hotspot – and what we at Hotspotting would define as a property growth hotspot. There are those who believe that the best philosophy in selecting good places to buy real estate is to follow the population growth – and buy in the locations where population is growing the most or the fastest. This, we believe, is a very poor strategy. Very often, the locations that have the highest population growth rates do so simply because they’re locations on the fringe of a major city where there’s land available for building new housing estates – and naturally the population will grow there, often from a very low base. And sometimes the growth in prices in these kinds of locations is subdued because there are large quantities of new housing supply being created – i.e. there’s an absence of shortage. By contrast, some of the best capital growth is often achieved in locations where there is little or no population growth – because they’re established suburbs with no large vacant areas for new homes to be built. The only way the population can grow in such places is by increased density – for example, houses are knocked down and replaced by apartment buildings. Recently the Housing Industry Association published its latest hotspots report – and their definition of a hotspot is very different to ours. The HIA report seeks to identify the areas where the greatest amount of new population and new home construction is occurring. Media reported on this with headlines such as: “Population Boom Creates Hotspots”. A typical article said: “Surging population growth is creating housing hotspots in the suburban outskirts of Australia’s major capital cities. “The annual Housing Industry Association Population and Residential Building Hotspots Report says the northwest Sydney suburbs of Box Hill and Nelson are Australia’s biggest hotspots for construction, followed by Fraser Rise and Plumpton in Melbourne’s west.” Now, this is a perfectly valid report for the HIA to produce, because it speaks to the primary activity of its members, the important business of creating new dwellings – something the nation needs, because there’s a serious shortage. The HIA definition of a hotspot is “areas where population growth eclipses the national rate of 2.4% and building work is worth more than $200 million”. But it’s important to understand that such places are not necessarily good places to invest. The Hotspotting definition of a hotspot is a place where there are underlying economic factors likely to create superior capital growth in the medium to long term. Our EMPERICAL formula for selecting the locations likely to become capital growth hotspots includes the strength and depth of the economy, the size of the population (but not how much it is growing), the existing infrastructure and amenities, investment in new infrastructure and a number of other features. Locations that satisfy the various criteria in our EMPERICAL formula are far more likely to deliver superior capital growth than city fringe locations where the population is growing fast through new housing estates.
03:0205/06/2024
Relentless Podcast: Season 5, Episode 9 - Feat. Tim Graham
A podcast by people who make a difference, with people who are the difference. Listen to how incredible people live life on their terms. Chris Christofi, entrepreneur, is the brain-child behind this brilliant podcast. He talks to multiple World Champions, CEOs of major property development companies, brand innovators and unexpected entrepreneurs about their journey listening to their mindset, their gratitude and their unceasing intensity to get to the top. Chris pays it forward unveiling the secrets to their success to ensure listeners learn from the best. If you want to level up your inner game, watch Relentless on YouTube or listen wherever you listen to your podcasts. About This Episode From humble beginnings growing up in a country pub, it was a fateful meeting between Tim and our very own Chris Christofi that set Tim on a whole new path. From travelling all around the world selling real estate, to becoming the COO of Reventon, and finally the General Manager of Hotspotting with Terry Ryder, it's been a meteoric rise for this kid from the country. A long-time friend of the Reventon business, Tim sat down with Chris to talk about his journey, gaining the respect of clients and the challenges of selling real estate in 18 different countries.
31:5529/05/2024
Learn The EMPIRICAL Formula Webinar Replay
Join Terry Ryder & Tim Graham as they reveal the powerful EMPIRICAL Formula used to identify the Top 50 Suburbs for above-average rental yields and outstanding capital growth. Discover how our formula has consistently delivered remarkable results, with some areas experiencing up to 30% growth in the past year. Webinar Highlights: The EMPIRICAL Formula: Learn the methodology behind selecting top-performing suburbs. Proven Results: See the impressive outcomes from following our tips, including double-digit capital growth in the latest quarter alone. Top 50 Suburbs: Discover locations with high rental yields (5-8%) and property appreciation rates (10-15%). Case Studies: Explore success stories like Orelia in Perth (17.9% increase in three months), East Mackay in Queensland, and Kingston in southern Brisbane. Exceptional Performance: Uncover 11 suburbs with over 20% growth in the past year. Regional Standout: Dalby, Queensland, with a 24% increase in rental yields and a 15% rise in property valuations in the last 12 months. Ideal for: Serious Property Investors Real Estate Professionals Mortgage Brokers Financial Planners Buyers Agents Investment Advisors For more information on our Hotspotting reports please visit www.hotspotting.com.au/reports And for more information on memberships visit www.hotspotting.com.au/memberships
01:01:2528/05/2024
Statistical Deception
The misuse of price statistics represents a clear and present danger for real estate consumers trying to make choices about where to buy. The much-quoted adage about lies, damned lies and statistics applies very aptly to median prices for locations across Australia. While this data can be useful to buyers and sellers, if used intelligently, way too often it’s misused and abused in news media in ways that misinform and mislead consumers. One of the most common misuses of median price data occurs when media outlets publish lists of the locations which, allegedly, have had the biggest growth in property values in a recent time period. Journalists love these lists, usually spat out of the computer database of a research organisation which craves free publicity and doesn’t care too much about the accuracy or authenticity of the figures. One of the problems is that journalists often confuse a 10% rise in the median house price with a 10% rise in the location’s property values. Often it’s not the same thing at all, because median prices are very rubbery figures. Here are a few facts about median prices you need to know about:- If you do a computer search on the median price for any suburb or town in Australia, you might get answers from seven or eight different sources and they will be all different. If you ask how much the median house price has grown, or fallen, in the past 12 months, you again will often get seven or eight different answers. Median prices are notoriously and dangerously unreliable if the sales sample is small. If, for example, there have been only nine or ten sales in a suburb or town in the past year, then the median price will be meaningless, and the increase or decrease will be unreliable, because that’s a very small sales sample. At Hotspotting, we disregard median price data for a location if there are fewer than 30 sales in a year. So recently, a recent media headline shouted very loudly about a New South Wales location where “property values” had risen 150% in the past five years – including 8.2% in the past 12 months, according to CoreLogic – which is one of those research organisations which loves free publicity and doesn’t always scrutinise the data that achieves it. The reality is that the location in question, Catherine Hill Bay in the Lake Macquarie area, is a very small village with very few sales – and the figures on its median house price cannot be treated as gospel. According to the article, the median house price was $1.43 million, according to CoreLogic, up 8.2% in 12 months and 151% in five years. But if you check out the latest figures on yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, the median house price is $1.56 million, up 5.7% in the past 12 months – and has grown at a rate of 25% per year over the past 10 years – which means property values are doubling every three years. If that was true, this insignificant location would be the outstanding real estate performer in the nation, if not the world. But PropTrack’s latest information says the median house price is $1.6 million, up 10% in the past 12 months. But with little increase in the past two years. But here’s the thing. How many house sales in Catherine Hill Bay in the past year? Just 10. Which means the median house price data is rubbish. If you look at the PropTrack graph for the change in its median house price over the past five years, the figures jump all over the place – because there are so few sales. The message is: if you torture statistics enough, they’ll tell you anything you want to hear. But smart investors will not base a big purchase decision on this kind of data.
04:4427/05/2024
Unlock Australia's Best Positive Cashflow Investments
It’s a common myth that an investment property can’t have both strong rental yields and capital growth. Our data shows us time and time again that BOTH outcomes are possible, and no report illustrates it better than ‘The National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots Report’. Investing in real estate is all about timing and choosing the right locations that promise substantial returns. Our latest edition of the National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots report reveals the insights you need to make informed decisions and maximise your investment potential. Our Previous Scorecard Our tips from last year had some remarkable growth in both property values and rental yields in these suburbs, reinforcing their attractiveness as investment destinations. Here's a glimpse of the standout performers: Armadale (W.A.): 12-month Capital Growth: 31.30% Rental Growth: 28.20% Withers (W.A.): 12-month Property Growth: 30.70% 12-month Rental Growth: 12.50% Elizabeth Downs (S.A.): 12-month Property Growth: 23.50% 12-month Rental Growth: 16.70% Orelia (W.A.): 12-month Property Growth: 25.70% 12-month Rental Growth: 14.90% Berserker (QLD): 12-month Property Growth: 16.70% 12-month Rental Growth: 7.50% Grab your copy today https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/national-top-10-positive-cashflow-hotspots/
01:0023/05/2024
House Cost Rising
I have often commented that every time politicians make changes that impact the cost of housing, they make it worse, never better. And it’s happening again. Changes to the National Construction Code came into effect in Victoria and Queensland on the first of May. And this is expected to add up to $40,000 to the cost of building a new home - through, among other things, the Code’s new energy efficiency standards. HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon said this caused a spike in new home sales before the changes came into effect – and there will a slump in coming months – as home buyers rushed to sign a contract for the construction of their new home before the end of April. Reardon says New South Wales experienced the same phenomenon in September last year when the state introduced its latest energy efficiency standards, adding significantly to the cost of a new home. Reardon says: “Additional regulatory costs, such as the Code changes, are one of the causes of the nation’s acute shortage of housing. The changes are intended to achieve energy efficiency and accessibility outcomes, but they also force people out of homeownership and the rental market. “Ongoing changes to building codes will continue inflating the costs of construction with the next phase of building regulations now open for public consultation. “If ever there was a good time to stop inflating the cost of home building, this must be it. “Lowering the cost of delivering new homes to market is essential to achieving the Federal Government’s target of 1.2 million new homes over the next five years, and improving housing affordability across the country.” Developers have warned that additional infrastructure charges will work against government plans to unlock more newly built homes and will make property more unaffordable for buyers. AV Jennings chief executive Phil Kearns said about $200,000 of the cost of a new home is tied up in fees and charges across all three levels of government. Kearns said: “It’s substantial - and now the National Construction Code will add around another $30,000 to $40,000 worth of cost for mum and dad to put up with. We have this government working against itself in trying to create more affordable housing.” A report by Savills for the Property Council of Australia found planned increases in the next 24 months to two recent infrastructure charges in Sydney — the new Sydney Water Development Servicing Plan and Housing and Productivity Contribution charges — could jeopardise the delivery of almost 190,000 homes in the city’s west. Modelling in the report found a typical 250-unit apartment development, and a 115-lot greenfield development would no longer be financially feasible - and will be significantly less feasible in 2026 under planned increases. In NSW, there are currently 15 separate levies and taxes on new housing. The report found that in Western Parkland City – which covers from Wollondilly and Campbelltown to Blue Mountains and the Hawkesbury — 33 per cent of new home costs will be government fees by 2026. In the Central River City region, spanning the Hills Shire, Blacktown and Bankstown, the figure was 26 per cent. Kearns said there is also the continued challenge to secure skilled labour on-site, which continues to exacerbate delivery costs. He said the labour skill shortages, the tax situation, and the difficulty in getting approvals through, are preventing homes from being built. He said: “Blocks keep getting put in our way.” Meanwhile, Reserve Bank chief economist Sarah Hunter has warned there is no “quick fix” for Australia’s housing market woes, as developers defer projects due to high costs - sending dwelling approvals per capita to decade lows. The severe undersupply of homes means house prices and rents will continue to rise as the market fails to keep pace with strong demand for space fuelled by high migration and more people working from home. Dr Hunter says: “Demand pressure, and so upward pressure on rents and prices, will remain until new supply comes online.” She says that, usually, rising prices and rents trigger a surge in new housing supply as investors and developers see opportunity to profit from new builds. But Dr Hunter says a “perfect storm” of constraints has prevented the construction industry from responding to the current housing shortage. In the current circumstances, many projects are simply not viable. What it all means is that the shortage will continue for years to come – and the cost of buying or renting homes will continue to rise.
06:0120/05/2024
Budget Hopeless
The Federal Government’s latest Budget will go down in history as the “band-aid budget”. Rather than fix fundamental problems and deal with core issues, the Federal Treasurer has thrown cash in various directions, in what looks very much like an election Budget. They haven’t provided solutions to any of the core problems in the housing industry, particularly the rental shortage. There are broken limbs everywhere in the industry - and in other parts of the national body - and the Federal Government has applied band-aids to a few of them. It’s the same in other areas. Rather than pull the necessary levers to bring down power prices, as they promised repeatedly to do at the last election, they are throwing cash at everyone to help with their next power bills. It’s another band-aid. It doesn’t reduce power prices which are a key component of inflation and a serious problem for many businesses. It’s simply a short-term, short-sighted, vote-buying measure that doesn’t address the core problem. But, at Hotspotting, our key focus is on the very important issues in the housing market, particularly the rental shortage and the high costs of buying homes. The Federal Budget repeated the previously announced ambition of building 1.2 million new homes over five years, but did not nothing to address the current rental shortage, nor to deal with housing affordability – something politicians often talk about, but continually make worse with their policies and decisions. The Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia (REBAA for short) summed it up when it commented: “The Federal Budget featured plenty of promises to somehow improve housing supply over the long-term, but failed to recognise one of the most simple ways to remedy the rental crisis.” They were referring to the reality that mum-and-dad investors provide over 90% of the homes that people rent in Australia and they need to be encouraged and incentivised to solve the dire shortage of rental properties – at a time when all the costs of owning real estate have risen. REBAA President Melinda Jennison said the Federal Government had again refused to accept the fundamental role that property investors have long played in the provision of rental housing in this country. “Again, we have been presented with a variety of measures to supposedly boost housing supply at a time when building approvals and completions are at decade-lows,” Jennison said. “For decades, property investors have shouldered the burden of providing rental supply for successive governments. However, it's evident that this is no longer the situation. The rental crisis is the end result of this changing dynamic. “The volume of investors currently active in the market is well below where it needs to be to significantly improve rental supply, but the Federal Government still won’t do anything to encourage more investors into the market.” I agree with Jennison when she says that it's surprising that the budget has provided incentives to foreign investors to purchase established Build to Rent developments, but no incentives have been offered to the resident investors who provide homes for millions of renters throughout our country. Aidan Collyer of Collyer Property Investments said the move for foreign investment tax breaks “will price young people who want to invest out of the market”. “This is already an incredibly competitive market, Labor is allowing international investors to make a quick buck at the expense of the great Australian dream,” he said. Elsewhere there have been plenty of critics of the Budget’s response to the nation’s housing crisis – or the lack of it. The Daily Telegraph reported widespread criticism of the Budget’s failure to “shift the dial” on the housing shortage. It said the Albanese government’s much-championed $6 billion pledge to address the housing crisis has fallen flat with the bulk of the money going towards infrastructure and not actual homes. Almost $2 billion has been channelled into a rental assistance scheme, the same amount has been given to charities to build 40,000 social and affordable homes, while more than $1 billion to help states and territories with the construction of roads, sewers, energy and community infrastructure. Despite the cost of building a new house rising more than 50% in the past three years, the Budget did not include assistance to help homebuyers with the cost of buying a property. Everybody’s Home, a national campaign seeking to fix the crisis, said the budget failed to tackle rising housing costs. It said: “The government’s ‘new’ funding for social housing is a repackaging of existing initiatives, offering loans instead of providing real funding, and the continuation of a funding agreement with the states and territories - something the Commonwealth routinely renews for other essential services like education and health.” Everybody’s Home said the increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance would provide some short-term relief, but was not a lasting fix. And that is the failing of this Budget – it provides short-term relief on a number of issues, but does not provide any lasting solutions. The West Australian newspaper commented that the increases to the Commonwealth Rental Assistance scheme contributes only a pittance to housing costs, with the weekly boost enough to buy only two cups of coffee. The Budget offers a maximum of $12.50 per week to recipients of the assistance scheme, according to analysis by CoreLogic. CoreLogic economist Eliza Owen echoed the comments of many others when she said the Budget missed an opportunity. Yes, indeed, this band-aid Budget is a massive, missed opportunity. It could have provided real and lasting solutions to the rental shortage, to housing affordability and to many other core problems for Australian households – but it failed to do so.
06:3720/05/2024
7 Lessons from the $26Bn Man - With Tyron Hyde
Catch the replay of our latest webinar hosted by Tim Graham, General Manager of Hotspotting, featuring Tyron Hyde, the visionary founder of Washington Brown and a master of property depreciation. Dive into the invaluable insights of "7 Lessons from the $26B Man," a presentation inspired by the legendary real estate mogul Harry Triguboff. In this compelling session, you'll explore the powerful strategies that fuelled Harry Triguboff's ascent to billionaire status, with a focus on the transformative impact of compounding in real estate investment. Discover practical advice and nuanced strategies that every property investor should consider: The Power of Compounding: Learn how small, consistent investments can grow over time and how to leverage this in the property market for significant returns. The 1% Rule: Uncover minor adjustments you can make that yield substantial improvements in investment outcomes. Whether it's negotiating a slightly better interest rate or enhancing property features to boost rental appeal, these small changes can dramatically increase your portfolio's value. Annual Reviews: Understand the importance of reviewing your home loan rate annually to ensure you're getting the best possible deal. We'll also discuss the benefits of cross-checking comparable rental prices to maximize your income. For more information on Washington Brown or to connect with Tyron Hyde, please visit www.washingtonbrown.com.au You can also subscribe to Tyron's Ten with Ty podcast here: https://www.washingtonbrown.com.au/podcasts/
55:2715/05/2024
Carrot or The Stick?
In this podcast episode, we dive into the two different approaches that state governments in Australia are taking to address the issue of rental shortage in the housing market. On one hand, Western Australia (WA) has adopted the carrot approach, offering incentives and encouragement to investors to increase the supply of rental properties. On the other hand, Victoria has decided to take the stick approach, punishing investors with new and higher taxes if they do not comply with the government's desires. The WA government has implemented several measures to encourage investors to bring new supply to the rental market. This includes offering cash incentives to property owners who convert their short-term rental properties, such as Airbnb, into long-term rentals for permanent tenants. They have also relaxed regulations around building granny flats, providing interest-free loans to help builders complete unfinished properties, and offering cash incentives to owners of vacant homes to make them available for long-term rent. In contrast, the Victorian government has scrapped the Victorian Home Buyer program, which was aimed at helping young people get into home ownership. They have instead turned to new and higher taxes on property investors to generate revenue and alleviate the state's debt. However, this approach may further exacerbate the rental shortage in Victoria. It is clear that the WA government's approach is more constructive and will bring new supply to the market, while the Victorian approach may have negative consequences. The WA government has also allocated significant funding towards social and affordable housing initiatives to not only increase supply but also support those in need. So, why are property investors now more likely to buy in Perth and key WA regional markets, while selling in Victoria? The difference lies in the government's actions – WA is encouraging investors, while Victoria is discouraging them. This highlights the importance of government policies and their impact on the housing market. In conclusion, governments have two options when it comes to creating significant change – the carrot approach or the stick approach. In this case, the WA government's carrot approach seems to be more effective in addressing the rental shortage issue, while the Victorian government's stick approach may have negative consequences. Time will tell which approach will yield better results, but it is clear that incentives and encouragement go a long way in creating change.
04:3913/05/2024
Leading the Way in Property Management: Corinne Bohan From Image Property
🌟 Leading the Way in Property Management: Corinne Bohan from the award winning Image Property 🌟 Join us on the latest episode of the Hotspotting podcast, where we sit down with Corinne Bohan, the trailblazing Managing Director of Image Property—Australia’s #1 Property Management Company for four consecutive years according to the RateMyAgent Awards. Dive deep into the world of elite property management with insights from a leader managing over 5,000 properties. 🏡 What Sets Image Property Apart? Corinne shares the secrets behind Image Property's success, focusing on their process-driven approach that handles everything from proactive maintenance to strategic tenant selection. Discover how their emphasis on exceptional client service, combined with rigorous staff training programs, leads to exceptional customer experiences and high retention rates. 🚀 Insider Insights on Overcoming Industry Challenges From navigating low vacancy rates to maximising returns, Corinne discusses how Image Property's dedication to sustainable rental incomes and a detail-oriented management strategy has carved a unique niche in the market. Learn about their innovative solutions and the critical role of problem-solving and project management in their growth trajectory. 🌐 Expansion and Impact Hear about Image Property's recent expansion into new markets like the Gold Coast, and get a peek into the future with discussions on major commercial projects impacting the real estate landscape. 🔑 Why Listen? Whether you're a landlord looking to optimise your property investment or a property management professional aiming to elevate your operational strategies, this episode offers invaluable perspectives from one of the industry’s best. You can watch the full episode on Youtube too, and make sure to follow Hotspotting for more expert takes on the real estate market's hottest topics! 🎙️ Watch on YouTube - https://youtu.be/ryYhJEBjx_4 To learn more about Image Property or to connect with Corinne Bohan please visit www.imageproperty.com.au
25:2909/05/2024
The Pulse Report Highlights
Australia has some outstanding markets which are performing on every metric, including price growth, rental growth, low vacancies and high yields. And many of these places on not what you might expect. Every quarter, Hotspotting publishes a report we call The Pulse, to identify 50 locations across Australia which deliver rental yields well above the average to investors. The primary parameter of our national Top 50 list is to identify good markets with high rental yields, but our criteria also includes prospects for capital gains – and this report features locations which perform outstandingly well on price growth. To provide an example of the possibilities, consider the regional town of Murray Bridge in South Australia. In Murray Bridge, house rents have risen 27% in the past year, with the vacancy rate dropping further in the latest quarter to just 0.4% and the median rental yield growing from 5.4% to 5.5%. The median house price has grown 22% to $415,000 in the past year. In Geraldton in WA, the median house price rose 11.6% to $355,000 in the past quarter, but the median rental yield remained well above average at 6.7%, following a 23% annual rise in house rents, with vacancies low at 0.8%. This report also highlights some of the nation’s promising unit markets, in recognition of the rising trend of more and more buyers opting for apartments and townhouses – and attached dwellings now out-performing on price growth. In Bowen Hills in inner-city Brisbane, the vacancy rate is 1.2% and the median unit rent has risen 15% in the past 12 months, with the median rental yield increasing from 6.2% to 6.6% in the past three months. In that quarter, the median unit price has increased 7.1% from $425,000 to $455,000. There are many other examples of this kind of outstanding performance on both rents and capital gains – all identified in the new quarterly edition of The Pulse.
03:0307/05/2024
The Pulse Report is Out Now!
If investors had followed our tips, three months ago, in a special report we call The Pulse, they could have achieved double-digit capital growth - in the latest quarter alone - and up to 30% in the past year. The primary parameter of our national Top 50 list of locations in The Pulse is to identify good markets with high rental yields. But our criteria also includes prospects for capital gains – and this report features locations which perform outstandingly well on price growth. If you have an initial rental yield of 6% or 7% and your property’s value is growing 10% or 15% (or more) per year, you’re a happy investor. Several of the locations on our Top 50 list have recorded capital growth above 10% in the latest quarter alone, headed by the Perth suburb of Orelia which increased 18% in three months. All of the 50 locations on our Top 50 three months recorded capital growth over the latest quarter, except one – and most experienced median price growth above 5% in the quarter, including nine locations which rose more than 10% in three months. In the case of Orelia, this means $70,000 in capital growth in just three months, while the Perth suburb of Hillman also rose $70,000. If you had bought a house at the median price in East Mackay, Queensland, your property’s value would have risen $50,000 in three months. A $490,000 purchase in the southern Brisbane suburb of Kingston three months ago would now be worth $535,000, up $45,000 in the latest quarter. In annual growth terms, 11 of our suburbs have risen by more than 20% in the past year. This report demonstrates that it is possible to achieve an investment property that ticks every box for the owner: high capital growth and above-average rental yields in affordable locations with ultra-low vacancies and rent rising more than 10% per year. Among the most outstanding performers identified by this report are locations where property values have risen notably, but rental yields have increased because there has been an exceptional increase in rents. One of the stand-out markets highlighted by this report is the Queensland town of Dalby, the key regional centre for the Western Downs region west of Brisbane. With vacancies near zero, rents have risen 24% in the past 12 months, with the median rental yield increasing from 6.6% to 7.2% in the past three months. Property values have also soared, with the median house price up 15% to $350,000. That is the kind of performance that is possible if you get the quarterly editions of the special report we call The Pulse.
03:4307/05/2024
Latest Price Data
The latest price data from two of the biggest sources of real estate information shows a resurgence in the regional areas, in competition with the capital cities. The background to this is that the combined regions have outperformed on capital growth since Covid, with regional areas generally out-performing the big cities in the past four years. But in the past 12 months, the tables have turned somewhat, with the cities overtaking the regions on growth in median prices, led by Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. Now, we’ve seen another twist, with the latest statistics from both PropTrack and CoreLogic indicating that the combined regions have had a resurgence since the start of 2024. Let’s look at the PropTrack numbers first. PropTrack figures indicate that the Combined Regions had 0.3% growth in the home price index in April, compared to 0.21% in the Capital Cities. The highest growth for April was in Perth, followed by Adelaide, but with the regional areas of NSW, Queensland and WA also exceeding the national average growth figure. In annual terms, the cities are ahead, up 7.2% compared to 5.1% in the regions. Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane have all had exceptional growth, but the regional markets in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have all increased by more than 10% in the past 12 months. The under-achievers in the past 12 months have been Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin, as well as Regional Victoria and Regional Tasmania. We really do have multi-speed markets, which is the norm in Australia at any point in time. But since the Covid era started, the regions have been the overall stars, with home prices rising 55% in four years, compared to 36% by the capital cities. In that four-year period, the biggest increase had been by Regional Queensland, up 68%, with Regional South Australia close behind with a 67% increase. Next is Adelaide, followed by Brisbane and Perth. Three other regional markets grew more than 50% in four years – NSW, WA and Tasmania. CoreLogic has different numbers from PropTrack, which also is normal, but the market patterns are similar. The CoreLogic figures show that in the past 12 months, the cities are ahead with house prices rising 10.3%, while the combined regions have risen 6.3%. But more recently, the regions have excelled. In April, house prices in the regions increased 0.8%, compared to 0.5% in the capital cities – with the regional markets in Queensland, South Australia and WA all rising more than 1%. But the single biggest increase was Perth, up 2%, while Adelaide increased 1.2%. In the latest quarter, the regions are up 2.1%, compared to 1.7% in the cities, with the regional markets of WA, South Australia and Queensland again leading the way – but again with Perth recording the biggest individual increase. In the year to date, the first four months of 2024, the combined regions have grown 2.6% compared to 2.2% by the combined capital cities. It’s a similar scenario with the unit markets. In the year to date, the combined regions have growth 2.8% against 1.7% in the capital cities – and in the unit markets, the regions are also ahead in the past 12 months, up 7.2% compared to 6.7% in the cities. In the cities, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have all excelled on unit price growth, but Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra have been weak and dragged down the capital city average. In the regions, Queensland is the leader and South Australia, WA and NSW have all performed solidly. The overall message in the data is that affordability is the key factor. Whichever way you look at the price data, the outstanding performers have not been expensive cities like Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra - but smaller cities like Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane, and the affordable regional markets.
05:0607/05/2024
Unaffordable Twaddle
The silliest people skulking around the edges of the property industry are the shallow attention-seekers who pump out nonsense reports claiming that no one can afford to buy property – not because it’s true or useful, but simply to drum up some free publicity for the business who is the source of the misinformation. The shallowness and pointlessness of these reports is demonstrated by the results being seen in property markets, which emphatically contradict the notion that most people can’t buy homes because they’re unaffordable to the vast majority. We are constantly inundated with reports claiming young Australians are priced out of the property market and doomed to a life-time of renting – but the latest official data shows there has been a 13% annual increase in the number of loans to first-home buyers. The attention-seeking report writers claim no one can afford to buy, but first-timers are out there buying homes in rising numbers. Beyond the apparently dire plight of young buyers, there are growing instances of reports saying most households are priced out of the market, not just the first-timers, and that our real estate is unaffordable to the vast majority of people. And yet, in stark contrast to those claims, our markets are extremely busy with buyers in all price ranges - and prices continue to rise steadily. Here’s the thing: if you want to achieve cheap and easy publicity for yourself or your business, the fast-track is to publish alleged research on housing affordability – and to guarantee maximum coverage, your so-called report needs to conclude that it’s a dire situation and hardly anyone can afford to buy homes. Media loves that story line and will publish it every time, despite the fact that they ran the same or a similar story last week, and the week before, and the week before that. Apparently journalists believe we all have an insatiable appetite for lies about housing affordability. The sad reality is that it’s really easy to pump out a report with negative findings - because the report writer gets to decide their own definitions of affordable and unaffordable. It’s completely random and arbitrary – but the creators of these shallow documents pretending to be research can rest easy in the knowledge that no journalist will ever challenge them on their definitions and parameters, nor ever question their findings. They’ll go for the easy option of the cheap headline, every single time. Recently one of the big four banks produced a particularly scurrilous and worthless press release, pretending to be serious research, which found that only 13% of homes in Australia are affordable for buyers. Now, if that was true, property markets across the nation would be largely dormant. There would be few sales occurring and prices would be falling in most markets. Of course, the opposite is happening. Current sales levels across Australia are 24% higher than the same time last year and prices are rising in most markets across Australia. How can these two contradictory things be happening? It’s because the report in question is shallow nonsense. And we shouldn’t be surprised that a major bank would produce a dishonest document to generate publicity – we all know from the royal commission and from our own personal experiences that the big banks are very comfortable with being unethical in the pursuit of profits. So we’re not surprised to see National Australia Bank producing a headline-grabbing report that was based on the principle that you should never let the facts get in the way of a cheap headline. When you’re a big four bank using the media, the truth is always optional – and indeed usually rather inconvenient. So, here’s what the NAB report claimed – and, to their credit, they managed to keep a straight face while talking about it. They said that just 13% of the homes that are for sale in Australia are affordable to the average household. Presumably that means that 87% of the homes for sale across the nation won’t sell because they’re beyond the financial reach of most of us. How did they manage to come up with this implausible scenario, which is contradicted by what’s happening the market every single day? By deciding, in the interests of a screaming headline, that if you have to spend more than 25% of household income on servicing the mortgage, then it’s unaffordable. Who says that this is the definition of unaffordable? Well, the National Australia Bank, because if they’d used a realistic benchmark that’s in line with the reality of most households with mortgages, they would NOT have been able to claim that most homes are unaffordable and they wouldn’t have got any publicity. If NAB was right, of course, and spending more than a quarter of the household income on the mortgage WAS unaffordable, then mortgage delinquency rates in Australia would be sky-high. But they’re not. The mortgage delinquency rate in Australia, according to S&Ps, is just 1.4%. Yes, slightly more than 1% of people with mortgages are behind on their payments. Which means over 98% of home-owners are paying their mortgage on time, which means they’re finding it affordable, even though some might be finding it difficult. But according to the NAB report, that cannot be true, because 87% of homes, and the loans needed to buy them, are unaffordable – according to them. Sadly, this is just another case of economists demanding that property markets behave the way they think they should, rather than observing the way markets are actually behaving, and trying to understand why.
06:1102/05/2024
Negative Gearing
It’s remarkable how many politicians think that the solution to every problem that afflicts the housing market is to scrap negative gearing and make other changes to drum investors out of existence. Want to fix the rental shortage? Scrap negative gearing. Make housing more affordable? Scrap negative gearing. Facilitate the construction of a million new homes in Australia? Scrap negative gearing. The illogic of these attitudes – and the way they run counter to the truth – is quite remarkable. And, while it’s become quite common for politicians and others to recommend the end to negative gearing tax benefits, none of those advocates have been able to explain how that measure would lift rental supply or improve housing affordability. When asked for numbers, they don’t have any. Those who hold to the view that massively punishing property investors will solve all the ills in the housing industry should ask themselves a few basic questions. Why is it that Australia abolished negative gearing in the 1980s but within two years had reinstated it? Why is that New Zealand, in similar fashion, banned negative gearing three years ago and is now in the process of bringing it back in? And why is it Ireland, that ended negative gearing some years ago as well as increasing taxes on investors, now has a rental shortage catastrophe far worse than Australia has now? History shows that every time a nation decides to scapegoat and punish property investors, rather than implement real solutions to housing problems, they end with a situation far worse than they started with. NZ did it, partly based on the theory that deterring investors would put a lid on property prices and make homes more affordable. But NZ house prices soared, because it was home buyers pushing up prices, not investors. Rents also rose sharply in NZ, because many investors dropped out of the market, causing a serious rental shortage. So it’s alarming to see politicians seeking attention – and I have to say it’s usually minor parties like the Greens or independents who are grandstanding – constantly declaring that anti-investor policies will fix all the housing problems. The latest “look at me” politician to do this is the loud and bogan independent Jacqui Lambie. I’ve been observing Jacquie Lambie for a long time – let’s face it, she loves the limelight - and she has always struck me as someone who desperately needs counselling – constantly angry, always bombastically shouting about something or at someone - and desperately unable to articulate a coherent sentence, so it’s always difficult to understand why she’s so worked up. So it really shouldn’t surprise me that she called a press conference recently to declare that if we wipe out negative gearing it’ll fix the rental shortage. But was unable to explain exactly how that would work. Because it wouldn’t work. It would achieve the opposite. She also claims it would cause house prices to drop – which perpetuates the myth that somehow negatively-geared investors are the reason prices rise in Australia. My estimate is that less than 20% of buyers in the market are negatively-geared investors. What we’re being asked to accept is that this small minority of buyers somehow overpowers the 80% plus of buyers who are home buyers or investors not claiming negative-gearing tax benefits, such as myself. The largest and most powerful cohort in the market at any point in time, including right now, are home buyers other than first-home buyers. They are older, with higher incomes, they have equity in their existing homes, and they have considerable borrowing power – far more so than first-home buyers OR investors. The politicians who are most vocal about squashing investors are the Greens, who would, if they had the chance, cap rents, scrap negative gearing, increase capital gains tax and impose other taxes on investors. To get an impression of the impact that would have on the Australian rental market, if it ever happened, we can observe the situation in Ireland, which implemented very similar policies some years ago. Today Ireland has a rental shortage catastrophe, far worse that the crisis in Australia. Among the various reports and analysis I found on the Ireland market situation, were these comments: “Ireland has been grappling with a severe housing crisis for over a decade, characterized by a shortage of affordable and suitable homes, rising housing costs and rents, and increasing homelessness. This crisis has had a profound impact on individuals, families, and the country's economy as a whole.” And here’s another comment on the situation in that country: “Ireland's rental market is a daunting place for households in 2024 and with demand far outweighing supply, finding somewhere to live has become increasingly difficult if not impossible. One of the biggest reasons why Ireland is facing a housing crisis is due to lower investment by developers and landlords.” Well, if you’re going to impose policies that squash the people who supply the product that’s in short supply, what do you expect?! In Australia, an open house for a vacant rental home will commonly attract 15 or 20 people wanting to rent it. In Ireland, the queue at a rental open house stretches out the door and down the street, literally for hundreds of metres. Those are the consequences Australia faces if it ever implements the policies advocated by Jacqui Lambie – or the even more extreme ideas advocated by the Greens. Let’s face it, this is nothing more than the politics of envy. Rantings from people with no vision or intelligence or expertise, just a nagging feeling that someone is better off than they are, so they need to be stopped. And to hell with the consequences.
06:4102/05/2024
Financial Freedom Starts at Home: Pay Off Your Mortgage In Record Time
Tune in to the latest episode of the Hotspotting Podcast with your host Tim Graham who sits down with special guest Scott Parry, founder of Crown Money. In this informative and eye-opening webinar, Scott shares his journey from starting out as a young mortgage broker to founding Crown Money, a company focused on helping people achieve their financial goals and becoming debt-free. Crown Money clients on on average pay off their mortgages within 12 years, and Scott is calling a client every 23 days to congratulate them on being debt free! The episode dives deep into the topic of mortgages and how it can either be a tool for achieving financial freedom or a trap that keeps people in debt. Scott discusses the common mistakes people make when taking out a mortgage and shares valuable tips on how to master your mortgage for a debt-free future. With his years of experience and a passion for helping people achieve their financial goals, Scott shares valuable insights on how to pay off your home faster and become financially free. Don't miss this insightful conversation that will change the way you think about mortgages and take a step towards achieving true financial freedom. To catch the full webinar, you can watch it on YouTube here. To learn more about Crown Money Management, please visit https://crownmoneymanagement.com.au/ 1300 882 981 Finance Tracking software: https://myprosperity.com.au/accounts/account/register?cobrand=crownmoney Book a meeting with Scott https://meetings.hubspot.com/scottparry/video-meeting?uuid=d3a46d42-93bd-461a-a9aa-c857222678cb
49:0102/05/2024
State of the States
One of the fundamentals of understanding real estate dynamics is remembering that real estate markets are local in nature – and they are influenced by the local economy in which they sit, far more than by national factors. Although economists and journalists often refer to “the Australian property market” and predict what will happen with “Australian property prices”, the reality is that there is no such entity as the Australian property market. Take a look at the price growth results among the eight capital cities for last year and you will note that some had boom growth, some had moderate growth, some stagnated and a few had falling prices. All those different scenarios occurred within just the eight cities. There were similar variations occurring throughout all the regional markets. All those places sat within the same national economy, all had the same situation with interest rates and all were operating under the one Federal Government. Why, then, did we have all those different outcomes? Because real estate markets are very LOCAL in nature. The greatest influence on them is the local economy. For that reason, at Hotspotting we are always keenly interested in a quarterly report published by CommSec, called the State of the States report. This report uses a series of different metrics to rank the eight state and territory economies. And I have found, over many years, that there is a correlation between the strength of the state or territory economies and the performance of the capital city property markets. The past two quarterly editions of the State of The States report have ranked South Australia as the No.1 ranked economy in the nation, a finding that would surprise many people. In the latest edition, South Australia was ranked No.1 on four different indicators. But it doesn’t surprise the team at Hotspotting because we are very aware that the economy of Adelaide and South Australia is pumping strongly, helped by its status as the high tech innovation capital of the nation and the leading state for alternative energy developments. Coinciding with the rise and rise of the South Australian economy has been the rise and rise of the Adelaide property market. In 2023, Adelaide was the No.1 or the No.2 market in Australia for house price growth (depending on whose statistics you believe), in competition with Perth. PropTrack’s data showing the leading suburbs and towns in Australia for price growth in the four years since Covid arrived, finds that the top 5 suburbs in the nation for price growth performance were ALL affordable suburbs in affordable Adelaide. In the latest edition of The State of the States, the No.2 ranked economy was Perth - and again, there’s a clear correlation between that reality and the performance of Perth as one of the leading boom property markets in the nation. Melbourne and Victoria rank No.3 on economic performance and this is one of several reasons why we believe that this market is poised for price growth in 2024, coupled also with very strong population data and a recent uplift in sales activity. Consistently at the bottom of the CommSec report rankings is the Northern Territory, with its biggest weakness in the latest quarterly edition being housing finance – and it does not surprise us that Darwin has the weakest house price performance of all the capital cities in the past 12 months. Other economies with lukewarm economic performance are Tasmania and the ACT – and this corresponds with the poor price performance of the Hobart and Canberra housing markets in the past year. So this report, freely able to anyone who is interested, is one that’s worth following – because, read in conjunction with other data, it can provide clues about where prices are likely to rise in the near future.
04:3402/05/2024
Interviews with the 1% - Kate Hill
Are you ready to take your investment journey to the next level? Look no further, because we have exciting news to share with you! We are thrilled to announce our new Hotspotting pre-recorded interviews with some of the top 1% of Australian investors who own 5 or more properties. As you may know, in the 2020-2021 financial year, only 0.87% of investors in Australia owned 5 or more investment properties. But what do these successful investors know that the majority don't? We have sat down with a number of them to get exclusive insights into their strategies, tips, and personal journeys. Our pre-recorded interviews bring you valuable knowledge and advice from Australian property experts who walk the walk and practice what they preach. Learn from their mistakes, successes, and unique perspectives on property investment. These interviews are a must-watch for anyone looking to build a successful investment portfolio and achieve financial freedom. With over 71% of investors owning only one investment property, we understand the challenges and uncertainties that come with growing your portfolio. That's why we have curated a series of interviews that exclusively feature investors with multiple properties. They represent the top 1% of Australian investors and have achieved remarkable success in their investment journey. Our pre-recorded interviews are available for you to watch at your convenience, so you can take in all the knowledge and insights at your own pace. Hear firsthand how they navigate the ever-changing property market and make profitable investment decisions. You'll be able to walk away with practical tips and strategies that you can implement in your own investment journey. About Kate Hill Kate is an avid property investor with many years of firsthand experience buying and researching real estate. She founded Adviseable after many years as a Property Coach and Mentor. An accomplished Property Investment Adviser, Kate has facilitated hundreds of successful property investment purchases and has been named among the top 2 Your Investment Property magazine’s Advisers of the Year in Australia. She has also featured prolifically in the national media, commenting on TV, the press, radio and podcasts. Kate is the co-author of the book The Female Investor: Building Wealth Security and Freedom Through Property Kate’s success as an adviser can be attributed to her keen sense of matching property with buyers, her knack for identifying outstanding property investment opportunities, and her tenacious negotiation skills. It’s these qualities that enable our clients to feel comfortable throughout the purchase process knowing that she’s in their corner. Kate has a significant and growing property investment portfolio herself, and her personal philosophy is simple; “focus on results, and always buy property with maximum growth potential”. When she’s not immersed in research material in an effort to uncover the latest property investment hot-spots, Kate enjoys competing in ocean swim events, long-distance running, cinema or relaxing with a good book. www.adviseable.com.au
25:1826/04/2024
Divorce and Dollars: Managing Real Estate and Relationships with Sallyanne Hartnell
Join us on this enlightening episode of the Hotspotting podcast, where host Tim Graham welcomes Sallyanne Hartnell from Reflect Coaching. An award-nominated Relationship and Divorce Coach and podcast host of "Reflect, Reclaim & Liberate," Sallyanne is on a mission to transform the divorce experience, helping couples reorganise their lives and family dynamics post-separation with dignity and less drama. In this episode, Sallyanne sheds light on why she might be the professional "no one wants, but many need." We explore the intriguing intersection of divorce and real estate, discussing how the division of significant assets like property can be navigated smoothly during these challenging times. Sallyanne shares her insights on the trends in divorce rates, including a spike observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and offers expert advice on managing property settlements distinctively from the divorce proceedings. Moreover, Sallyanne provides invaluable guidance on co-parenting and maintaining healthy family relationships post-divorce. Whether you're facing the possibility of a separation or seeking to understand the complexities surrounding divorce and asset division, this episode offers crucial perspectives that touch both the heart and the pocket. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of how to approach one of life's most difficult transitions with clarity and confidence, ensuring you protect both your emotional well-being and financial security. If you would like to connect with Sallyanne, you can reach her at www.reflectcoaching.com.au
27:3425/04/2024
Melbourne Property Growth
There are numerous reasons why we think Melbourne and Victoria is worthy of consideration by property investors, notwithstanding the concerted efforts by the state government and some local councils to force investors to sell up and get as far away from Victoria as possible. Melbourne and Victoria are underpinned by one of the nation’s strongest state economies, according to CommSec’s State of the States report, and there has been a notable uplift in sales activity since the start of 2024, pointing to elevated price growth as the year unfolds. But perhaps the most compelling evidence, pointing to growing strength in the Melbourne market in particular, is the latest population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The ABS figures describing population growth in 2023 are largely dominated by Melbourne. While the annual growth rate for Australia was 2.4%, Melbourne rose 3.3% - which was the highest in the nation except for Perth. The National Top 10 list for the fastest growing local government areas in Australia – that’s the percentage growth rate for the year - included three Melbourne LGAs, with the City of Melbourne the No.1 fastest growing municipality in the nation. The Nearby City of Yarra and the City of Melton in the western suburbs also made the top 10 national list. In terms of LGAs with the largest growth, the actual number of new people added to the population, four of the national Top 10 were in Melbourne – the City of Melbourne and three outer-ring growth areas, the municipalities of Wyndham, Casey and Melton. At a suburb level, most of Australia’s fastest growing suburbs are in the Greater Melbourne area. That includes the nation’s fastest growing suburb, Rockbank in the western suburbs of Melbourne. Of the top 12 fastest growing suburbs in Australia, 9 are in Greater Melbourne. And of the nation’s top 30 fastest growing suburbs, 16 are in Greater Melbourne. Now, to be clear, we’re not suggesting that population growth is the over-riding factor in choosing where to buy real estate. It’s one of many factors to take into account. But, considered alongside all the other factors, it’s a pretty strong endorsement of Melbourne’s prospects – it’s a tale of growth and the remarkable thing is, Melbourne hasn’t delivered any major price growth recently. That, I believe, will emerge later in 2024 and beyond.
03:2123/04/2024
First-Home Buyers vs. Investors in the Property Market
Media loves the storyline that first-home buyers are competing with wealthy investors for properties – and losing because investors apparently have a huge advantage. Like so much that’s written and spoken in news media about the housing market, it’s a work of fiction. The polar opposite is, in fact, the truth. The biggest competition for first-home buyers in the market is not investors, but home buyers other than first-time buyers. The largest cohort in the market, at any point in time, is home buyers who already own a home, have equity in that home and are upgrading – or, in some cases, down-sizing. These are buyers who are older, with equity, higher incomes and borrowing power – and they can easily over-power a young novice in the market. The biggest problem for first-home buyers is not investors, it’s the incredibly high costs of getting into the market because of the policies, decisions and actions by politicians and bureaucrats. Just take a look at the cost of a house-and-land package anywhere in Australia. Given that the cost of constructing the average brick-and-tile house is now close to half a million dollars, not including the land cost, it’s hard to find a new home in a housing estate for under $700,000. It’s considerably more in the biggest cities. The greatest lie of all is that investors have a big advantage over first-home buyers in the market. Presumably media says that because of their persistent misunderstanding about negative gearing. The reality is quite the opposite. If it comes down to a competition between a first-home buyer and an investor, the first-home buyer has several big factors in their favour. First-home buyers have high levels of government assistance, whereas investors do not. Quite the opposite, investors increasingly face major impediments from government. First-home buyers are granted stamp duty concessions, so they have to pay little or nothing compared to the massive tax imposed on investor buyers. Investors are slugged with much higher interest rates by lenders, so that if you have a first-home buyer and an investor of similar ages and incomes, the first-home buyer has considerably greater borrowing power and therefore has a competitive advantage over the investor who earns the same income. Keep in mind that, according to the latest research data, most investors are young, on average incomes and need to buy as affordably as possible, which means they cannot pay high prices for properties in competition with other buyers. Investors have several other disadvantages compared to home buyers. As well as paying higher interest rates, they pay higher council rates and they pay higher rates of insurance. And they have to pay taxes that home buyers do NOT have to pay, including land tax and capital gains tax. The only potential positive on the investor side of the equation is negative gearing, which in some cases, but certainly NOT ALL, may reduce the amount of tax the investor pays – but that does nothing to increase the investor’s borrowing capacity or ability to pay a high price for a property. The whole narrative around first-home buyers being priced out of the market by so-called wealthy investors is a lie. And indeed, the latest official data on lending to buy property shows that there has been a 13% increase in first-home buyer activity this year, compared to the same time last year.
04:1423/04/2024
Location Reports: Your Real Estate Game-Changer!
If you want to sell real estate, very often the greatest selling point is the location. If the location has … a strong diverse economy creating jobs, a steadily growing population with strong increases projected well into the future, good existing amenities and a significant spend on new infrastructure … then it has many of the credentials for capital growth. The problem for many real estate professionals - in taking advantage of growth factors like that in their location- is accessing all the key information, analysing it and then presenting it in a way that’s easily accessible to potential customers. Many people in the industry just don’t have the time or the resources to do all that. That’s where Hotspotting’s unique custom reports service comes in. It saves you time and it projects your business as professional, informed and successful. The Hotspotting team can create location reports on individual suburbs, clusters of suburbs, local government areas, towns and regional cities, and on major capital cities. The reports are provided with the client’s branding and location details, as well as (if you choose) the Hotspotting brand to provide the assurance and credibility of an independent third-party research source. This is a custom report service you cannot get anywhere else. Our customers love it. One of them says ... “Hotspotting was a pleasure to deal with when arranging my Custom Report. As a buyer’s agent for many years, I was astounded by how much effort and research goes into their reports. Their communication was great and I am extremely happy with the final result.” And another of our regular customers commented … "The research provided by hotspotting.com.au has been an integral part of our success and the growth of our business. The ability to access independent research reports on the locations we believe are best for our clients, with our branding, has made it easier to show our customers the merits of the places we think have the strongest growth credentials." We love to get feedback like that, because we regard our custom reports as one of our most important product services.If you would to find out more our Hotspotting’s exclusive custom reports service, contact me on [email protected] or go to the hotspotting.com.au website and select “products” on the menu at the top and then “custom reports”.
03:1723/04/2024