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FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities, and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.
The Intersection of AI and Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse
Artificial intelligence is reshaping the world of municipal bonds, with predictive analytics, data-driven decision-making and automated portfolio management just some of the ways the technology is transforming public finance. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano take a break from discussing the nuts and bolts of asset management and instead focus on the bits and bytes of how technology is applied to the municipal landscape. Joining us this month is Issac Kuofrom Parametric Portfolio Associates. Issac is a portfolio manager, technologist and painfully shy scratch golfer.
50:5620/11/2024
Beach Point’s Sauer on LMEs, Coops: State of Distressed Debt
Lenders must be “hyper-vigilant” at the whiff of a liability management exercise (LME), as cooperation agreements forged in response by the largest lenders often shut off membership once critical majorities are reached, according to Beach Point Capital’s senior vice president Jordan Sauer. Jordan shared with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel how his initial legal work at Wachtell Lipton with lender documentation served him well in identifying credit-agreement vulnerabilities and managing investments amid the jungle of LMEs and coop groups (6:20). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the implications of a historically low high yield spread for credit investors. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering Franchise Group, Hertz, Yellow, Spirit Airlines, J&J, Incora, and CommScope (1:06:30).
01:31:3314/11/2024
US vs. EU Credit Gaps On Election and Rate Cuts: Credit Crunch
With the US election having a clear result and credit markets enjoying a strong run this year, charting the course forward is a challenge. Will a Trump regime slow down Fed cuts and will the ECB continue on its previous easing course, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields cause more divergence in credit until 1H25? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and James Turner, Co-Head of EMEA fundamental fixed income at Blackrock, discuss the state of credit and gaps across the US and Europe.
They tackle relative value across credit in different currencies; junk and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the impact of elections across the US, UK and Europe.
55:5212/11/2024
Deficits, Regulations, and Taxes with Nathan Dean: Macro Matters
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut 25 bps in this election week, not a surprise, but Jerome Powell wasn’t as hawkish as might have been expected. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest-Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Senior Government Analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the implications of the recent election cycle for the US economy and Treasury markets. They discuss the current state of executive policy uncertainty, and potential outcomes of various campaign promises, though Dean doesn’t think the debt ceiling is going to be an issue for the next four years. They also touch on potential changes in tax policies, fiscal budgets, and financial regulations.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
37:3711/11/2024
Enjoy Dollar Bull US Narrative, With No Complacency: FX Moment
The cyclically-driven bullish dollar narrative got another boost last week, with President-elect Donald Trump's expected pro-growth stance implying a policy mix weighted more to fiscal stimulus and less to monetary steps, which would help the dollar. It's also better positioned if Trump pursues tariffs. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist, about how the economy, the Fed rate outlook and the fiscal trajectory could affect our dollar outlook.
Anna and Audrey touch on how US fiscal woes could impact dollar views via a worsening fiscal premium, though the dollar's role as the global reserve currency won't be challenged any time soon.
19:1309/11/2024
Unpacking Growth and Inflation Projections With the IMF: EM Lens
Geopolitical risk remains elevated, yet financial stability doesn’t appear to be a cause for concern as market practitioners turn their attention to year-end. Dr. Jason Wu, IMF assistant director of Monetary & Capital Markets, and Dr. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, join Damian Sassower, EM Lens podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the growth and inflation outlook for both advanced economies and emerging markets across the globe. Wu and Natalucci touch on issues ranging from central bank stimulus and US dollar debasement to term premia expansion and the evolution of private credit.
The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
34:1101/11/2024
UBS’ Sabatino on Fed Liquidity and SEC Regulation: Macro Matters
Cash is not on the sidelines. An investment in a money market fund is an actual investment, says Robert Sabatino, head of Global Liquidity Portfolio Management at UBS Asset Management. Sabatino is joined by host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rate strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rate strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss all things money markets. The trio examine shifts in the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s facilities and the money-fund industry, as well as how recent SEC regulatory changes have affected portfolio-management decisions. They also touch on drivers of volatility in the repo market, such as the growth of the Treasury market relative to intermediation capacity, as well as how money-fund assets may evolve as offering yields fall.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
29:0131/10/2024
Using Technology to Go Odd-Lot Hunting: Masters of the Muniverse
Investors have poured $13 billion into high-yield municipal bond funds in recent weeks, a move that underscores the need for credit analysis and active investing, says Alex Petrone, managing director and head of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk with Petrone about using technology to assist in credit research in the highly fragmented muni market, how quickly fixed income asset management is changing and what 2025 may bring.
43:2929/10/2024
Listen Now: Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence
Reports of active management's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Active continues to grow and evolve in ETFs while mutual funds prosper and define benefit plans. Bloomberg Intelligence strategy team uncover active opportunities and glean insights from active managers and those who cover the industry. Listen to Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence.
01:4527/10/2024
400 Capital’s Hentemann on Securitization Market: Credit Crunch
By engaging across multiple sectors of the structured product markets, 400 Capital Management has the flexibility to independently deal with the unique cycles and phases of the various asset classes. Founder and Managing Partner Chris Hentemann joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through the process of navigating through those cycles. The conversation touches upon asset class allocations, the risk-transfer market, joint venture benefits, the attraction of commercial real estate, and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.
57:5925/10/2024
Barings’ Ockerbloom Sees Opportunity in Real Estate: EM Lens
Real Estate remains highly localized, a feature which contributes to its noncorrelated and rate-sensitive nature, says Barings Head of US & European Real Estate John Ockerbloom. He joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s fixed income strategist, to discuss opportunities and risks facing real estate markets across the globe in this episode of BI’s FICC Focus podcast. Ockerbloom identifies opportunities in data centers, self-storage, health care and multiuse real estate. They also talk about what comes next for out-of-favor sectors such as office and retail.
16:4523/10/2024
Antares’ Mathew on Direct Lending’s Advantages: Credit Crunch
With plenty of private equity dry powder and a growing supply-demand imbalance, direct lending is well positioned to grow, according to Antares Capital Director of Asset Management, Vivek Mathew. Vivek joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on another special edition of Credit Crunch, recorded at the Greenwich Economic Forum. They discuss the benefits of being under the wing of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the refinancing cycle, Antares’ co-investment approach, secondary-market viability and more.
41:0921/10/2024
Active Muni ETFs Are a Brave New World: Masters of the Muniverse
The record growth in municipal bond ETFs, and more specifically actively managed muni ETFs, has led to more innovative alternative strategies. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management. They discuss Simplify’s ETF strategies and how option selling can improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.
48:3018/10/2024
Abrdn’s McCann on Fed Narratives and Fiscal Risks: Macro Matters
It does look like the Fed is nailing this soft landing, so we’re feeling quite positive around where we’re going, says James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at Abrdn. McCann joins host and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to unpack rapidly shifting economic narratives. The pair discuss changes in the the medium-term economic outlook, as well as recent developments regarding the state of labor markets and inflation. They also dive into the implications of strikes and hurricanes on near-term economic data, in addition to the balance of risks surrounding the upcoming US election cycle.
27:1717/10/2024
Polen Capital on Its Multiasset Solutions Outlook: Credit Crunch
Polen Capital, with deep roots in the world of growth equity investing, has expanded into the opportunistic high yield bond market, leveraging its acquisition of DDJ Capital in 2021. Polen CEO, Stan Moss, and Head of Credit, Dave Breazzano, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this special edition of Credit Crunch, live from the Greenwich Economic Forum. The conversation dives into the firm’s focus on growth, the benefits of a flexible high yield investment approach, leadership through uncertain times, the credit cycle and more.
34:0816/10/2024
High Yield 4Q Investor Survey, Europe vs. US View: Credit Crunch
High yield credit had a strong year (to date), as yields rallied and spreads followed, while defaults didn't blow up as feared. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 2.7% and the US at 1.2% but the share of stressed and distressed bonds has come down. Will 4Q sustain those gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q High Yield Survey, along with market outlook, with Peter Khan, Global High Yield Portfolio Manger at Fidelity Investments.
They discuss the BI 4Q investor survey report, which covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They discuss deeply how high yield prospects differ between Europe and the US.
43:2515/10/2024
Mercer’s Nuzum: Lean Into Emerging and Frontier Markets: EM Lens
Globalization has slowed, yet access to local markets is improving, and the EM asset class remains underrepresented in most global portfolios. In this episode of the EM Lens podcast, Rich Nuzum, executive director and global chief investment strategist at Mercer, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed-income strategist, to discuss the Mercer’s affinity for emerging market assets and their role within large institutional portfolios. Globalization has slowed, yet access to local markets is improving, and the EM asset class remains under-represented in most global portfolios. Nuzum and Sassower touch on supply chain diversification, demographics, total return expectations and terms of trade.
13:3714/10/2024
Nouriel Roubini on Policy Stimulus, Stagflation & Geopolitical Risk: FICC Focus Special
Despite the recent spike in volatility, investor sentiment is broadly positive, yet tail risks are emanating as we push into year-end. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, joins BI Chief Emerging Market Fixed Income StrategistDamian Sassower, to discuss policy stimulus, growth potential and inflationary price pressures across the globe. Roubini and Sassower touch on issues ranging from diminished US exceptionalism and extreme China pessimism to elevated Mideast tension and the accompanying passthrough to commodities.
18:1711/10/2024
Bloomberg Volatility Forum NYC 2024: All Options Considered
This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in NYC on October 1st. It starts with the opening speech by BI’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets, followed by the discussion from the first panel on the options market by Pierre De Saab, partner at Dominice, Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management, and Deniz Cicek, Portfolio Manager at Axonic Capital. The panel is hosted by Noel Hebert, Direction of FICC Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence.
01:00:5010/10/2024
BlackRock’s Lynam Constructive on Credit Outlook: Credit Crunch
Private credit markets have seen tremendous growth over the past decade, establishing themselves as viable sources of funding for companies across the rating spectrum. That growth may not slow down anytime soon, according to Amanda Lynam, head of Macro Credit Research at BlackRock. Lynam joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to walk through trends in the corporate-credit space. The discussion hits on how corporate credit spreads could tighten, the ebbs and flows of financing mix, the default cycle, regional relative value and much more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.
58:0807/10/2024
JFW’s Jon Weber on Post-Reorg Boards: State of Distressed Debt
“LMEs buy time for the sponsor, but I’m increasingly seeing that that’s all it really does.” Jon Weber, founder of JFW & Co., doesn’t mince words regarding the effectiveness of the popular restructuring strategy. Liability management exercises leave executives with a “sword of Damocles” over their heads, failing to really fix anything and with an aftermath that remains a management distraction, Weber told Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel, in October’s feature interview for the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Weber shared his perspectives, honed at Icahn Enterprises, Goldman Sachs and Elliott Management, on running effective boards and companies post-reorganization (6:30). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the complete dearth of distressed-debt inventory, as the distressed ratio plummeted to a 5.2% 28-month low in September. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering J&J’s latest Talc news, Hertz make-whole appeal, Audacy, Yellow, Tupperware, Telesat and what qualifies as a consensual release these days (59:00).
This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
01:24:2404/10/2024
State of US Systemic Risks with DiMartino Booth: Macro Matters
In the beige book, you see all 12 districts reporting declining spending in some way shape or form, and that’s unheard of: There is no such thing, and I think that is what got the attention of the Federal Reserve, says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for QI Research. In this edition of the Macro Matters podcast, Booth joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief North American rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss changes to the microstructure of the US Treasury market, as well as some of the largest systemic risks to financial markets. The duo also touch on potential Fed reforms and changes to bank-capital rules affecting market-making activity and liquidity in US Treasury markets.
25:5603/10/2024
China Stimulus No FX Game Changer After Cyclical Lift: FX Moment
China's recent monetary and fiscal stimulus announcements may bring near-term cyclical relief and add to the bullish case for yuan-proxy currencies like the Australian dollar and may help to contain euro downside amid underwhelming domestic news flow. Yet a longer-term, structural boost is debatable. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman's global head of market strategy, about how the recent measures from China could shape the dollar outlook later this year and into 2025.
Win and Audrey also touch on how China could affect the euro as Europe's economic news flow disappoints, plus the US economic outlook and how the US presidential election might drive the dollar view.
17:5501/10/2024
FS Investments’ Beckman on Opportunistic Credit: Credit Crunch
The corporate credit landscape could face uncertain times ahead, with upcoming elections, policy shifts and global conflicts. Andrew Beckman, Head of Global Credit at FS Investments, joins Credit Crunch’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the firm’s approach to investing across public and private markets. The conversation delves into current risk-reward levels, the credit-quality sweet spot, leveraging the broader FS infrastructure, creditor-on-creditor violence and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.
51:5227/09/2024
Rate Volatility and Central Banks: All Options Considered
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Chief UK Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.
17:3425/09/2024
Vontobel’s Jackson on Outlook for Global Fixed Income: EM Lens
Andrew Jackson, head of fixed income at Vontobel Asset Management, joins BI chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower, to discuss portfolio positioning and market expectations after the US Federal Reserve’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut. Despite the rise in volatility, investor sentiment toward emerging-market debt remains positive, yet tail risk remains elevated as 4Q approaches. Jackson and Sassower touch on issues ranging from new issuance and secondary-market liquidity to credit quality and default protection.
20:4424/09/2024
SVP’s Woltery on Opportunity in Europe: State of Distressed Debt
SVP operates as “one big virtual global office” built on three functional “pillars” — sourcing, dealmaking and its operating partners — according to HJ Woltery, the firm’s co-head of the European investment team. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel had an in-depth feature interview with Woltery on European distressed debt. They delved into SVP’s investment approach and how the restructuring landscape varies from the US and among European countries (7:15). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel discussed August’s telecom-led credit rally and what the start of rate cuts means for the corporate credit cycle. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two for a roundtable discussion covering Avon, Hertz’s make-whole decision, Gol airlines, TPG, Diamond Sports, Mallinckrodt, Yellow Corp. and the proliferation of cooperation agreements (1:02:25).
01:35:0020/09/2024
Unemployment at 5% May Escalate Fed’s Rate Cuts: Macro Matters
The new supercore CPI to watch is the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, given US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on monthly non-farm payroll gains, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong is joined by Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss key details and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 50-bp rate cut and accompanying policy announcement. The pair unpack the implications of changes in the Fed’s summary of economic projections as well as the outlook for the economy relative to current market pricing. They also discuss potential implications for monetary policy in the context of the upcoming presidential election.
23:0619/09/2024
The Future of Financial Research, With BI’s Dwyer: Macro Matters
With artificial intelligence tools, we think we can cover more, in more depth and with the same number of people, and we can be faster to market, says David Dwyer, director of global research at Bloomberg Intelligence. In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Dwyer joins host and BI chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the future of financial research within the context of rapid technological advancements. With BI celebrating its 15-year anniversary, the pair discuss the history of tech adoption and productivity gains within the financial-research sector, as well as how machine learning and AI tools will drive evolution in analysts’ workflows.
20:3716/09/2024
Solutions in a Changing Muni Landscape: Masters of the Muniverse
The performance of the broad muni index has been positive this year, while also notably falling short of the stronger showing by its fixed-income counterparts. However, the real winners can be found in the lower-rated muni credit rungs, with the Bloomberg Muni High Yield index leading the way. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by John Loffredo, vice chairman of MacKay Shields, to discuss the changing landscape of munis and how risk-managed relative-value approaches can help uncover opportunities.
40:3513/09/2024
Are Spreads Pricing Fed, ECB Cuts for Perfection?: Credit Crunch
Credit markets have had a strong year, a few blips notwithstanding. After the ECB cut rates twice, the BOE once and with the Fed about to embark on a long cutting cycle, are credit spreads too tight and priced for perfection? Is the rally in yields justified on expected rate cuts until 1H25? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Jamie Irvine, investment director at abdrn, discuss the state of credit across the US, UK, and Europe.
They tackle relative value across credit in different currencies; junk and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; and fundamental views. They also address the sterling credit market, and the impact of elections across the US, UK and Europe.
01:02:5312/09/2024
US Politics Could Soon Revive De-Dollarization Talk: FX Moment
The dollar's status as the ultimate global reserve currency is intact and the currency is still leading on the International Monetary System's key parameters. Yet geopolitics and China's efforts to push for internationalization of the yuan are keeping FX regionalization and de-dollarization topical. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, and BI chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu discuss how the looming US presidential election might affect de-dollarization.
Stephen and Audrey also touch on some key themes covered in their latest FX Deep Dive: ''De-Dollarization, FX Regionalization and the Yuan's Expansion'', including the role of gold as a factor in the de-dollarization debate. The deep dive can be found at BI CURR on the terminal.
16:3403/09/2024
VIX at 65, MOVE Above 100: All Options Considered
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu covers the VIX at 65 being due to market technicals and unreflective of fundamentals, as well as the support for rates volatility from uncertainty around the pace and extent that policy rates decline rather than the direction of travel, which is clear cut.
07:4930/08/2024
Schroders’ Graham Seeks Alpha in EM Corporate Credit: EM Lens
Emerging Market corporate and quasi-sovereign debt is outperforming the broader EM sovereign-credit complex, as the asset class returns to favor following years of below-average bond issuance. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Emerging Market Portfolio Manager at Schroders Autumn Graham joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower, chief EM credit strategist, to discuss the risk-return tradeoff in EM corporate credit. Graham and Sassower touch on issuer fundamentals, market depth, foreign positioning, geopolitical risk and the impact of deglobalization.
This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
27:5229/08/2024
Rethinking Macro Credit Patterns via BI STRTE: Credit Crunch
Macro credit trends tend to be based on more of a feel than precise numbers. In this latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Heema Patel, Senior Credit Strategy Associate at Bloomberg Intelligence, delve into proprietary research and data on BI STRTE to make macro credit very precise. Explore their novel spread-prediction model with market and macroeconomic drivers, insights on index metrics -- default rates, rating quality/drift and credit ratios. They also discuss if green bonds are trading at a premium or discount, a methodology contrasting with the conventional greenium calculations.
Lastly, they address the main derivative play in credit, the cash-CDS basis and gain perspective on current market patterns and uncover alpha-generating opportunities.
45:0827/08/2024
How Canada’s Economy, Rates Have Diverged From US: Macro Matters
The Canadian economy is rife with potholes that could potentially be hit by a policy mistake, says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey and senior associate rates strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the state of the country’s economy and rate markets. They talk about the key drivers, outlooks and possible risks across the short and medium term, as well as key differences in US and Canadian central-bank mandates and potential policy paths.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
24:4422/08/2024
Johnston on Credit-Research Data Tools: Masters of the Muniverse
As we edge closer to a US Federal Reserve rate decision and a presidential election, municipal credit will get more attention. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk to Jennifer Johnston, director of research, municipal bonds, at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. She discusses how technology enhances credit research and why tax policy, slowing tax collections, falling revenues and pressured hospital margins are among areas of concern in 2H and beyond.
51:4520/08/2024
SLR Cofounders on Specialty Financing Advantages: Credit Crunch
SLR Capital Partners has built expertise in corporate lending, asset-based financing, life-science credits and other segments over nearly two decades. The firm’s cofounders Michael Gross and Bruce Spohler join Bloomberg Intelligence credit analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to talk about how the firm thinks about underwriting risk across borrowers and the types of investment vehicles they’ve built out. The conversation hits on their principal investment approach, how they deal with problematic loans, the current regulatory environment and more.
56:4413/08/2024
Sprayregen on Restructuring Landscape: State of Distressed Debt
Don’t expect “gentlemanly” behavior from corporate boards under financial stress, says Hilco Global’s Vice Chairman James H. M. Sprayregen, as they should consider exercising all the rights available to them under credit agreements to maximize enterprise value. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku speak with Sprayregen, who founded Kirkland & Ellis’s restructuring practice more than three decades ago, in this episode of BI’s State of Distressed Debt podcast. They talk about those early days at K&E, his new role at Hilco Global, the jousting among lenders and debtors, the Supreme Court’s Purdue decision and his restructuring outlook (5:38). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discuss July’s sharply-tighter credit markets and what to make of early August’s wild swings as we head into credit’s toughest months. The podcast concludes with all three examining the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including SVB Financial, J&J, Ardagh, Incora, Diamond Sports, Yellow Corp. and Spirit Airlines (1:05:15).
01:25:0808/08/2024
BIoomberg Intelligence on the Great Dollar-Yen Unwind: FX Moment
The great dollar-yen unwind is under way, with the combined shift to much more dovish Fed-easing prospects and more hawkish BOJ expectations the perfect trigger to the unwind of the yen carry trade. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to BI's Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu about what is still a negative dollar-yen narrative, while acknowledging that the pace of the recent moves have been extreme and aren't likely to be sustained.
Stephen and Audrey also look at the implications of recent yen moves for yuan dynamics and revisit their BEER model, highlighting its useful reference at a time of extreme FX moves.
15:2306/08/2024
Future of Fed Policy Changes and Fiscal Scenarios: Macro Matters
The unemployment rate will surprise the Fed, rising to 4.5% at the end of this year, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the July FOMC meeting. The pair discuss Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at the meeting’s Q&A, and what that means for likely rate-policy outcomes. They also the examine potential implications of possible fiscal-policy changes to inflation, trade policy and real-economic activity.
22:4202/08/2024
Election Puts Muniland in Its Sights: Masters of the Muniverse
With US presidential election campaigns in full swing, we thought it prudent to revisit what this year could mean for the municipal bond market in terms of heightened risks -- and even some scenarios where it would benefit. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macroeconomic issues accompanying the election will remain a hurdle. To discuss possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Andrew Silverman and Nathan Dean from Bloomberg Intelligence.
48:3131/07/2024
Systematic Credit Growth Seen by Insight’s Benson: Credit Crunch
Increased electronification and the growing prevalence of portfolio trading are creating opportunities for systematic credit, which seeks to harness the explosion of data to create models and strategies, says Paul Benson, head of systematic fixed income at Insight Investment. Benson joins BI credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the history of the systematic approach, model dependency, excess liquidity premiums and identifying relative value. That and more in this latest episode of Credit Crunch. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.
01:05:5329/07/2024
Bonds Are Not Vegetables Says HSBC’s Steven Major: Macro Matters
Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and BI senior rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss some of the most controversial topics across global bond markets in this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast. The trio dive into the determinants of longer-run equilibrium interest rates and the relationship between supply and yields. They also touch on regulatory constraints on dealer-intermediation capabilities and relative value across global bond markets.
32:5427/07/2024
Fed Easing Cycles and Unsustainable Fiscal Policy: Macro Matters
The economy is firing on all cylinders and continues to show positive momentum, says Lara Rhame, chief US economist at FS Investments. Rhame joins Macro Matters co-host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss the major drivers of the US Treasury market. The trio examine how the Federal Reserve may respond to current and future economic conditions, and the impact of various outcomes across asset classes and the Treasury curve. They also discuss the likely path of fiscal policy and the potential implications of sustained deficit spending on longer-maturity Treasury performance.
24:0925/07/2024
Central Bank Reserves, Markets, Bitcoin: All Options Considered
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matt King, Founder of Satori Insights. They discuss the impact of central bank reserves on cross-asset markets.
16:1523/07/2024
Shorecliff’s Nachman on Launching, Running a Fund: Credit Crunch
Shorecliff Asset Management’s Grant Nachman talks about the intellectually-enriching challenges of launching a new firm in this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Crunch podcast. Grant joins BI’s chief US credit strategist Noel Hebert and his colleague Sam Geier to discuss Shorecliff’s full-cycle credit-investing strategy, the benefits of having a lean team, a bottom-up due-diligence process, the ideal size for the strategy and more.
01:03:0619/07/2024
HSBC’s Ulgen on Emerging-Market Fundamentals, Sentiment: EM Lens
Murat Ulgen, Global Head of EM Research at HSBC, and BI’s Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower discuss how US yields and the dollar have driven emerging-market risk premiums and how resilient the asset class has been to rates repricing throughout 1H. They note dispersion within the broader market, the role of carry and the drivers behind the sentiment change in specific geographies - notably a curtailed bullishness for Latin America, and a shift toward Central and Eastern Europe and Africa. Their conversation spans Turkey, South Africa, China (and its EM role) as well as frontier and distressed markets.
28:4317/07/2024
High Yield 3Q Investor Survey, View Ahead of Cuts: Credit Crunch
High yield corporate credit had a strong 1H, despite rates volatility, as spreads rallied and defaults stayed low. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.85% and the share of stressed and distressed bonds has come down, while it's higher in the US. Will 3Q sustain those gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 3Q High Yield Survey, along with market outlook, with Peter Aspbury, Head of European High Yield and PM at JP Morgan Asset Management.
They discuss the BI 3Q investor survey report, which covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They also discuss how high grade and leveraged loan prospects compare with junk.
01:06:2416/07/2024
Global Elections Permeate Sovereign Bond Markets: Macro Matters
US congressional partisanship is at it’s highest level ever and there’s no fiscal restraint on either side of the aisle, says Macro Matters host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rate strategist Ira Jersey. He joined BI’s chief European rate strategist Huw Worthington to discuss the implications of global elections across sovereign debt markets. The pair talk about recent volatility spurred by French and UK elections and their impact on relative value across markets. They also dissect the outcomes of the November US Presidential election and the implications of shifting trade and geopolitical stances on the economy.
Macro Matters is part of the BI FICC Focus pod cast series.
24:3511/07/2024