In this week's episode we are joined by Alan Brochstein of 420investor (https://marketfy.com/product/420investor/) and New Cannabis Ventures (https://www.newcannabisventures.com/). Alan (aka "The Maven") is one of the leading providers of original thought and analysis in the cannabis space. He runs 3 cannabis-only model portfolios on 420i and he joins us to talk about his investing philosophy as well as how things are changing since he started in 2014. Topics Covered: - Intro to Alan, 420i and New Cannabis Ventures - The Three Waves of Cannabis Investing since 2012 First Wave - Total Speculation & Garbage Companies - Late 2012 to Early 2016 Second Wave - Canadian Legalization Wave - 2016 to early 2020 Third Wave - US MSO Fundamentals & Potential Legalization - Mid 2020 to ? - How Alan called a Cannabis Bull Market in May 2020 - "This Time is Different" for Cannabis Companies - The one time Alan moved to all cash in his model portfolio - "How the Market works" with a live example - Technical vs Fundamental Investing (or Momentum vs Value) - Mistakes Made & Timing the Market - The new MSOS ETF by AdvisorShares  - How will this NASDAQ listed ETF affect weed stocks? - How Investors may be able to "Front-run" the MSOS ETF - Investing for the 2020 Election - Risks and Catalysts - Inefficiencies in Cannabis presents great opportunity for Investors - The Big 4 MSOs Potentially Evolving to the Top 10 - The Most Common Mistake Investors Make - Is a Mass Extinction Event still in the works? Thanks to Alan - this is an insight packed episode!

In this episode we do a 2020 update to our "How to Invest in Weed Stocks" episode from 2019. A lot has changed in the year since and it's important to upgrade your game accordingly! We discuss how things have changed and the mindset you should have going forward. In this episode: 1. Understanding Risk in Cannabis Investing 2. What you should learn about  3. Advantages of learning 4. Understanding the cannabis business 5.  Deciding to Invest - Questions to answer before Pulling the Trigger 6. Trading vs Investing in Cannabis

In this week's episode we answer questions regarding the amazing performance of the large MSOs: - Are US MSOs better than the Canadian LPs?  - Why are they out performing? - Why the US is a better place for the cannabis sector - What makes a market successful for cannabis companies (Canada, California, Oregon vs Illinois, Florida & NJ) - Canopy vs GTI vs Trulieve - Are the US companies over priced? - Are the Canadian names priced for value? - The power of the NASDAQ listing - A word of caution on chasing momentum

In this market update we revisit our concerns from the March COVID episode and the January Mass Extinction Event episode. We cover feeling bullish on cannabis (and why) as well as understanding why weed stocks are so hot (and if it makes any sense).

In this week's episode we are excited about acceleration of future legalization of cannabis in the US and we discuss trading and investing strategies for cannabis stocks. 1) Biden - Sanders Task Force Plan - How real is this? How does it play into the coming Democratic National Convention? - Social Justice reform, Police reform and change all accelerate cannabis legalization - DNC provides an opportunity for democrats to discuss ending the war on drugs  CAUTION - legalization hype is building quickly but actual legalization takes years to pass and implement 2) Investment Strategies for Legalization Hype Many different ways to play this with various risk/reward - which makes the most sense? a) "The Big 4" - GTI, Trulieve, Cresco & Curaleaf - obvious candidates as retail comes in b) Ancillary & US-Listed Companies - IIPR, Greenlane & GrowGen c) Tertiary Plays - Canadian LPs, Foreign Companies, Low Cost Countries Remember: Hype is not rational - capital will flow regardless of valuations US Legalization hype will make Canadian hype look like "a drop in the bucket" 3) Institutional Capital Flowing into US Cannabis - How will it play out? - When should investors get in? When to get out? - What are the best risk/reward strategies?

This episode we explore: Is Cannabis investing or Gambling? Whats the difference? Why does it matter? Examining your own behavior and changing it

We're finally back in the studio! This week we look forward at the various ways the US could legalize cannabis 1) Why You Should Care about US Legalization - US is the crown jewel of the international market - Over $12B USD in state-legal sales in 2019 (vs $1.2B CAD for Canada) - Huge capital available once NASDAQ & NYSE listings are available - US has higher prices, limited licenses and far less government regulation for cannabis 2)  How will US Legalization Go Down? - Likely to be a phased approached as opposed to one big legalization Several possibilities for how it can be done: a) Decriminalization b) De-scheduling or Re-scheduling (may come under FDA regulation) c) SAFE Act - access to banking and lending d) STATES Act - allows state law to be compliant with federal law e) Full Legalization - federally mandates legalization across entire country 3) What is the Biden Plan? Will it actually happen? - Biden Plan is a marketing document designed to excite the base - We need to see Biden mention the plan or champion it before believing it - Biden Plan involves medical legalization + STATES Act 4) How Will Legalization Change the Industry? - Effect on industry will depend on the type of legalization - SAFE vs STATES vs Full Federal Legalization - Being on US Exchanges will be the biggest catalyst 5) Will cannabis be allowed to cross state lines? 6) How to Invest around Legalization

Market Update: COVID risk is growing rapidly but Cannabis is looking good - Broader market remains buoyed by Fed Support but valuations are stretched - COVID is accelerating across US and is a massive threat with exponential growth - Lack of political will to close down economy again; somehow wearing a mask has become a political issue - Relation to cannabis: do you look at the stats or listen to the pundits? Cannabis - Has performed very well in pandemic; strong sales; essential status - Cannabis is perfect for a COVID / isolated world - Long term: accelerates opportunity for legalization and reforms - RISK: stimulus still flowing, things can slide backwards (Ontario pulling back delivery and curbside) o Nevada can be soft ;  But updates from AYR Q2 are encouraging o Many lower quality companies on the edge - Diving deeper into AYR Strategies (CSE: AYR) - Sentiment: Investors are upset and can easily dump despite good results (eg. LHS) - Separation of winners and losers but many retail investors don’t really care (gamble vs investing)

In this episode we dive into Medipharm Lab's Q1 2020 results which greatly disappointed the market - What's going on  with LABS? Why did it have such a drop off in revenue? - How does it compare to Valens? - Examining their recent $37M financing (good and bad) - How the slow 2.0 rollout is hurting the extraction industry - Why 2019 was such a good year for LABS - will it recover? - How will the extraction landscape look in the next 1-3 years?

In this episode we discuss strategies for taking advantage of the current bull market the Fed has created - The realization that the Fed will actively try to prevent the market from falling to prevent fear from dominating the market (as shown on Mon) - The market is likely to remain distorted which creates opportunities for investors - How do we play this bull market while being cautious about the disconnect between prices and fundamentals? - Debating investing in legacy business like Airlines and Theatres STRATEGY - PATIENCE! Keep your powder dry as it takes time for the market to re-adjust - Thinking of investing like private placements with the ability to hold for 1-3 years if prices tanks - Buying top tier companies like Green Thumb (GTI) with the understanding it may take a while to grow into the value - Deploying cash selectively in overlooked names with good risk/reward - How? Looking for small cap cannabis companies which have good fundamentals but have lagged in share price - Liberty Health (LHS) as an example - Comparing Canada to the US LOOKOUT - Don't chase high prices on low volume - Emotional investors are back! Watch out for them

In this episode we talk about the unbridled optimism in the general equity markets and how that flows into cannabis.  - SPY is 7-10% HIGHER than it was 1 year ago - Market effectively pricing in V shaped recovery - Does this make sense? Should investors be buying? - The importance of a margin of safety in investing - How cannabis has been buoyed by the broader markets - The "Big 4" MSO: GTI, TRUL, Curaleaf & Cresco - Potential risks being overlooked by the market

In this episode we delve into understanding the disconnect between real life and the stock market. Why is the S&P above 3,000 when the economy is frozen? Why are cannabis stocks on an absolute tear? Does this make any sense? What can we learn from this disconnect and how does it influence our investing philosophy? Two Key Principles: 1. Anything can happen in markets 2. Nobody knows what will happen next

After a strong week for cannabis stocks we delve into the reasons for optimism for cannabis investors. 1. Strong Results Prove out the Investment Thesis      a. GTI posting 25% EBITDA on $100M USD of revenue      b. TRUL likely to post 50%+ EBITDA on similar revenue 2. New Markets set to Open      a. NJ (9M) and AZ (7M) both on the 2020 ballot       b. NJ could cause domino effect with PA (13M), NY (20M) 3. COVID-19 Proving Sales are “sticky”      a. Cannabis being recession proof / resistant; defensive sector 4. Canada Getting Better      a. 2.0 rollout and Ontario retail expansion      b. ACB and Canopy improving (not out of the woods yet) 5. Wildcard – SAFE Act & Legalization / Election Talk      a. Possibility to get SAFE through senate with COVID bill      b. Potential election talk related to cannabis legalization

In this episode we examine the key take aways from Berkshire's 2020 Annual General Meeting (AGM).  Why did Buffett sell his entire airline holdings (~$6.5B) at a loss? What can we learn from the legendary investor with regards to his view on the current market? We also discuss how we look at investing from a long and short term lens. Can we really be long term investors in this space? Are we better off taking short term profits? When does it make sense to "sell it all" and move to the sidelines?

In this episode we touch on the recent developments in the general markets and cannabis stocks.  The market has rallied considerably in the last few weeks to within 15% of it's pre-COVID all-time highs. Does that make sense? Why is it reacting this way? And what's with the recent cannabis rally? We go through what we think is happening and why you should exercise caution before chasing the dragon. 

Happy 4/20! In this episode we take a step back and review how much the cannabis industry has advanced in the last year. 1. From Boom to Bust - how the capital markets overshot and are now correcting 2. Milestones - major progress has been made in the last year 3. Is it a good time to invest in cannabis? Positives and negatives

Is the S&P 500 overvalued or cheap? That depends on what you think the "new normal" will be. In this episode we discuss how the economy may look very different post-COVID and how long it could take to recover: The strong market rally - what are investors thinking? 3 reasons why the future normal could be very dissapointing 1) Record high unemployment - 16M+ new claims in the last 3 weeks (staggering) 2) Decreased consumer spending as confidence falls off a cliff 3) Longer term structural issues - what does "opening up" look like? CANNABIS: - Bad news for Harvest (HARV) and Ianthus (IAN) - Good news on Illinois numbers ($188M USD for Q1 Sales) - Aurora (ACB) 12:1 stock split and new ATM facility - what this means - IIPR Short Report - more on this next episode

In this episode we dissect the recent market rally and urge caution that there is much more pain to come - How Deep will COVID go? How long will the lockdown last? - Is it time for investors to be fearful or be greedy? - Reasons why the market is underpricing future risk - Buy/Sell/Hold - what makes sense? - How Alternative Investments fare when the general market corrects - How fundamentals and valuation may change even after COVID passes - Concerns and things to watch in cannabis - Examining Medipharm Lab's Q4 results - Village Farms BRUTAL Q4 Financials - Exercising caution on HEXO

In this episode we delve deeper into the market mayhem that has happened over the last 10 days - things have changed for investors. - How long will the COVID shutdown last? - How deep will this go? How bad will it get? - How should investors change the way they look at the markets (broader markets vs cannabis) - The worst is yet to come - our thesis on how the next few months could play out - Why we are selling and raising cash in anticipation of what's next - Buckle up! Be ready for a longer shutdown than you might think - How cannabis is behaving so far and what to keep an eye on going forward - What will be the best investing opportunities in the coming weeks PS - please excuse the audio quality; we are recording remotely on our phones!

In this episode we do a 180 on coronavirus and admit how we underestimated the virus and its potential to completely turn our economy and life upside down. We dig into how markets are reacting, how bad it is going to get and how this will ultimately affect broader markets and of course, cannabis investing. - We were 110% wrong - here's what we underestimated - The Shutdown: stopping the virus means pausing our economy and way of life - Mass extinction event now applies to many small business outside of cannabis - How bad is this? How long will it last? - Predictions: How will government support business and households? - Is this a 30 day event? Or a 6 month event? What happens if it goes longer than we think? - How will cannabis behave in a shutdown? Will consumers buy online? - Weed Stocks in a corona era - how will they behave? Who will win? - Should investors open their wallets or proceed with caution

In this episode we explore the irrationality and panic which has pummeled stock markets and absolutely brutalized cannabis markets.  We also something of a market update where we discuss news on Canopy, Cresco, Village Farms and the Florida Market. - What happens when there is a panic and a "rush to the exits" - What we are seeing in the market today - Does the market know more than you?  - Don't expect the market to act rationally in the short-medium term (eg. VFF settlement) - Several overhangs which will create drag for cannabis investors - Canopy shutting down 2 BC greenhouses - Cresco President abruptly "resigns" (bad sign!) - How bad were Tilray Earnings (hint: really really bad) - Florida House looking to cap THC at 10% for under 21 patients - 2 questions to ask yourself before investing in cannabis today

In this episode we talk about the recent pummeling the cannabis markets (along with the broader markets) have taken due to Coronavirus fears. How does this relate to our on-going thesis of a 2008-style cannabis liquidity crisis? What are we buying right now? - What is going on? How Corona is affecting broader markets - Are the fears overblown? What potential risks are there? - How does Corona affect the Cannabis Markets? - What quality names are we buying at "deep value"

In this episode we emphasize the importance of digging into a company's financials for yourself to see if any warning signs are present. It is CRITICAL you are looking at a company's financials (sedar.com)  - How we realized there was a "mass extinction" event coming - Why we sounded the alarm bells 30 days ago - Learning from the companies who went broke: DYME as a case study Warning Signs: 1. Cash balance rapidly declining  2. Large losses on income statement (and the importance of gross margins) 3. Cash Flow Statement vs Income Statement (why this matters) 4. "Circle The Drain" Financing - equity or debt raises at smaller amounts and worse terms 5. Lawsuits - Company gets into more lawsuits and disputes as they can't afford to pay their bills Bonus - Importance of receivables and taxes payable **Important - take a holistic view of the company. Having one of these items present is not nearly as having several red flags

In this episode we go over mistakes we made in our cannabis investing decisions and how we've improved our game since. This is especially important as we are seeing investors repeating the same mistakes. - Where did we go wrong? The importance of humility and continual learning - Checking your ego at the door on the way up - Investors are not learning - same mistakes are being repeated - Deals "priced to perfection" - investors not getting paid appropriately for uncertainty - Relying on headlines and "experts" for information (which is inherently biased) - Getting information from online echo chambers of cheerleaders (weak surface level due diligence) - Not actively seeking out negative or contrary opinions - Investing on hype and potential rather than fundamental prospects Forward Looking: What if Bernie Sanders wins the election? Discussing federal legality

Hello CIN listeners! In this episode we talk about Aurora and other companies who have cut jobs. How do we right the ship? How do we fix the existing mess that we are seeing?

Although we continue to warn investors for the fallout about to occur we also want to explain why we are still actively investing in the cannabis space. In this episode we discuss the major factors which will drive the sector longer-term: 1. Canada - 2.0 Product Ramp & Ontario Retail Stores (~500 expected by end of 2021) 2. New Markets - International (Mexico, Israel, EU) + US (New Jersey, New York, Arizona and more) These two points alone will potentially bring billions of dollars of sales online in the next 2 years! 3. Rise of CBD and other Compounds (CBN, CBG, and more to come) 4. Potential for Bio Synthetic Cannabinoids  It's important to keep a longer-term focus as it takes time to build real businesses and have new programs roll-out. 

In this fun episode we talk about what we've seen in Toronto for Cannabis 2.0 Products. Some topics we cover: - The Rollout of 2.0 Products - Types of products we've seen - Which products are selling the best - Concerns for the future - Some of the best products we've seen so far

In this week's episode we digest our warning from last week and discuss some issues which have come to the surface. Many of these are warning lights flashing for weed investors to exercise caution: - How we got here: people are not paying attention - BMO issues an optimistic Price Target on Canopy for $40 CAD. Why this matters (and why they're wrong) - Discussing Medipharm's $9.8M CAD statement of claim against HEXO  - Are we wrong? Is the negativity in the space already "priced in"? - Where are we now: Hot Air Balloon Metaphor - Should companies just stay private instead? - Promo companies not promoting - what that means - Long-term bullish: Why the winning companies will benefit from all this

In this episode we discuss several types of bias we see in ourselves and other cannabis investors. The ultimate goal is to understand patterns of thought and adjusting to make better investing decisions. - Understanding your own bias from your investing background - Dissociating your political opinions from business reality - Avoiding group think and online echo chambers - Be careful of confirmation bias and avoiding negative information

In this episode we lay out a serious warning to our network about the potential for an impending capital & liquidity crisis for the cannabis sector in 2020.  Companies are rapidly burning cash and financing is very tough to secure. Many companies (especially smaller ones) are running out of runway faster than you might think. Why is no one talking about it? - What is going on? - Fundamentals vs Capital Markets - How bad is it? (hint: pretty damn bad) - Predicting what happens next - How to protect yourself as an investor - Survivors will be long term winners - Medium-Long term very bullish on the cannabis space but have to pick your spots accordingly - What to look for in all of your holdings to evaluate your own risk - Are we wrong? Thoughts on things we may have missed **Do you agree or disagree? We'd love to hear your thoughts - [email protected]

In this episode we make some predictions for what is to come in 2020 for cannabis investing. In this episode: 1. "The Great Divide" - Winners & Losers Emerge - Mentality will shift: sector will stop moving as one and winners will emerge - Shifting from ETF mentality to stock picking (from passive to active) - Example: Trulieve should separate from the pack given their isolation in Florida and strong financial performance - Losers will lose HARD while winners will distinguish themselves 2. Predicting Sales for Canada in 2020 - The $3B sales bet...under or over? - Major catalyst for 2020 sales with Cannabis 2.0 and Ontario store increases - Will be a slow rollout for both, so the ramp will be gradual - Many unknowns still to be seen (like how Beverages sell) - Still a short list of winners in Canada who will be in a better position in 2021 3. The US & Canada - The Separation Begins - US will begin to outperform Canada  - Illinois and Michigan will prove to be very strong markets with a strong ramp in 2020 but will really shine in 2021 - Data and results will drive investors to invest in the US in 2020 - 280E Taxation remains the biggest issue US operators will face - Big States which may go Rec: Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Arizona (I mentioned Florida but their initiative is now dead) - New Jersey seems the most likely and represents a very lucrative market ("Florida 2.0") - Mexico story looks promising, Europe story is less attractive  - CORRECTION: MediPharm did NOT get their EU GMP certification yet, they got their Australian GMP 4. Rough Patch Ahead - Be Careful! - Capital crunch has turned into a capital crisis - very difficult to raise funds - Very few companies have gone under despite being very close to it - Circle the Drain Financing: Desperate companies will take crappy deals to try to save the ship - Some companies will turn it around, others won't - Bankruptcies will cause a domino effect and pull many others down with it - Ramp up of sales in Canada will be slow and won't be fully realized until H2 2021 - The general cannabis market will get punished as this occurs - There is no bottom for crappy companies! Some will go to zero! Especially those low on cash and burning fast - The companies who survive will come out stronger and better positioned 5. M&A From Unlikely Sources - Companies will look to merge to survive...but cash is king! - Potential for non-cannabis companies with cash on balance sheet combining with struggling cannabis companies 6. Up & Downs Continue - Things will not go straight up or down. Volatility will continue - FOMO is dead. Be patient, be picky and take profits! - No federal legalization in US in 2020 but 2-3 major states to go rec QUESTION: What are your predictions? Email us!

Happy New Year! In this market update we cover the good and bad for the start of 2020! - 2020 will be a year of Strong Catalysts driven by Fundamental Growth - There will also be significant headwinds to navigate Illinois Goes Full Rec: - Banner first day with $3.3M USD sales + $2.2M on 2nd day - $11M USD of sales in 5 days (with customers paying $20 USD/gram of flower) - Illinois will be a great market in 2020 and 2021, with a strong sales ramp and limited licenses Ontario Retail: - 45 dispensaries to open in Ontario Q1-Q2 (licenses were granted last year) - 160 new retail licenses in 2020 in Ontario (~225 granted by end of 2020 and ~475 by end of 2021) - This will greatly help ramp Canadian sales in 2020 and 2021 Cannabis 2.0 Launches in Canada: - 2.0 products shipping this week to retail and online next week (in Ontario) - These High Margin products will greatly drive sales for the entire industry - Very limited supply of products initially with many more to roll out over next 6 months - Will be similar to flower – under supply then over supply - We debate the strict marketing rules and how fast companies should be moving Vaping Bans: Quebec banning vapes and raising age to 21 Alberta delaying vapes until spring (at least) US News: - Debt Deals for Curaleaf ($275M USD) + Harvest ($73M USD) Curaleaf - $275M USD debt deals // Harvest - $90M USD debt deal - Trulieve Short Report Florida – Rec vote not looking good, suing for more time (flower got approved by lawsuit) See full Florida point-by-point rebuttal here: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

If you are not changing the way you invest going into 2020 you are in trouble! In this end of the year episode we recap the top 5 lessons learned for Cannabis Investing.  #1 - No Excuses, Play Like A Champion - Every investor is the CEO of their own account - Take full responsibility for your own results and learn from your mistakes - "It's not your fault but it is your problem" #2 - LEARN LEARN LEARN & Pay Attention - The importance of investing time and energy into learning this space - Continually evolving your thinking in this fast moving environment - Building a network of trustworthy investors to bounce ideas off of #3 -  Investing vs Trading in Cannabis - Shifting away from the negative stigma of Trading - Learning what can affect short term movements of a stock - Marrying the best of both worlds to find the strategy that works best for you #4 - Read Data NOT Headlines - Importance of reading past the headlines - Acknowledge your weaknesses and improve upon them - especially if they are financial related - Future will be financial and results based - make sure you are analyzing for yourself! - Good data is like a crystal ball - Beware paid and biased information sources (including investment banks) #5 - Quality over Quantity - Shifting from a broad portfolio of shiny companies to a consolidated list of winners - Willing to make lower profits in favour of lower risk - Getting paid for taking risk on earlier stage names - Running sensitivity on valuations to see what the margin for error is CLOSING - NOMO FOMO - This business is extremely capital intensive, even the best companies will need to keep raising - Investors will have chances to buy into these companies along the way as equity raises will be needed - Keep evolving your mindset into 2020 and beyond! Please note: This episode was recorded before the Trulieve short report came out. Our detailed breakdown of the Trulieve report here:   https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x  Next Episode: Top Predictions for 2020

In this episode we talk about how we kick the tires on potential private investments. - How we evaluate potential private deals - Mentality behind venture investing - Potential Red Flags & Deal Killers - Personal Frameworks for Evaluating Private Deals Next Week: Stay tuned for fresh episodes on 2020 predictions and top picks!

In this episode we explore 4 common overhangs which can weigh on Cannabis Stocks. Most of these things are unique to small cap and venture investing. - Overhang: Factor which negatively impacts a stock (typically short to medium term) - How this helps answer "Is This the Right Time to Buy"? 1. Cap Table / Share Structure - Understanding the importance of the cap table - Why previous rounds of financing matter and the "Game Theory" involved - How warrants and cheap paper can drag on a stock 2. Share Unlocks - Unlocks can create a huge overhang, real or perceived - How Mergers & Acquisitions create large unlocks - Resource for US MSO unlocks: https://www.statesidecannabisinvestors.com/calendar 3. Timing - Examining two low volume seasons: Summer & Tax-Loss Period - Debating if timing matters for fundamental investors 4. Capital Raises  - Why capital raises drop the share price - Why capital raising is actually not a bad thing in the long-run - What to look out for (straight equity vs debt vs warrant coverage) - How to Predict a Future Capital Raise **Note: Episode was recorded prior to MedMen/Pharmacann being called off (but the concept still applies)

In this episode we examine an article titled "The Cannabis Bubble has Burst". Were we in a bubble? What is a bubble? What does this mean for cannabis investors? - The definition of an investment bubble (valuations vs fundamentals) - Why it's so difficult to identify a bubble - The 5 Stages of a Bubble: Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, Selling & Panic 1. Displacement: How it starts 2. Boom: Quick money being made and momentum builds 3. Euphoria: FOMO is king and the investment goes mainstream 4. Selling: Sophisticated Capital exits  5. Panic: The Sell-Off deepends and the bubble bursts - Mistaking luck and risk-taking behaviour for genius - Is Cannabis A Bubble? Why or Why Not? - How US Operators will drive fundamental value over time - How strong operators will dominate the market in a capital crunch

In this episode we dive into the world of Sale Leaseback transactions. We are seeing this pop up more and more as the capital crunch gets worse. - What are Sale Leasebacks? - How do they work? - What's special about Cannabis related Leasebacks? - Why are we hearing so much about these kind of deals? - Who is Innovative Industrial REIT (IIPR) and how important are they to the industry? - Would Manish buy IIPR or another Cannabis REIT today? Why or Why Not?

What happens next for Cannabis stocks? Will the market bounce back to new highs or is there more pain in sight? - Short Term Trading vs Long Term Investing - Yes and No: Why some companies will surge and some will fail - Sector wide sell-off hurts everyone - Winners starting to bounce back and differentiate themselves - Why many companies will fail going forward - How did we get here? Pre Legalization hype based investing - Old Method: Using "Funded Capacity" and Lofty Projections - Today: Matured to Show Me instead of Tell  - Examining Revenue vs Margins vs Earnings vs Cashflow - Using Origin House as an example - selling off companies that don't smell like Winners - Balancing Revenue Growth with Burning Cash - How do we find winners? What to look for (cash, margins, earning potential, market, business type) - Cash and Cashflow and Capital Markets are KING - How to Play the Volatility in the Sector (trading vs investing) - Future Catalysts and Landmines

In this episode we explore the pains and issues Canada is having. What are the core problems? What are the solutions? Will these problems be solved? When? - Forecasting the Canadian Weed Stocks going forward (how to play the volatility) - The Good News: Many of the problems are fixable and will eventually be solved - The Bad News: We are 12-24 months away from any earnings relief. Many companies won't survive - Explaining today's issues in terms of Supply & Demand - Companies are missing revenue guidance (HEXO, OGI, Canopy, etc) - Large build-up of inventory in the system (exploring the numbers) - 3 Core Problems: Retail, Marketing and Distribution Retail: Ontario is far lagging behind and needs 20x the retail stores - Why this problem might get solved and how long it will take - Why private owned retail is SO important  Marketing: Why the strict rules are hurting the system - Why retail can help solve this problem Distribution: Government playing middle-man causing huge issues - This may change in Ontario but unlikely to in Quebec Picking Winners: What to look for in companies that can weather the storm Conclusion: How investors should act going forward knowing what is coming next

In this episode we explore Maneesh's thesis that Florida is the best cannabis market we've seen so far. Here's why: - The 3 levels of cannabis legality - which is the best for investors? - Why is every big company focusing on Florida? Profitability - Trulieve leads the industry in EBITDA margins and Earnings - What makes Florida such a profitable market? - Overview of Florida's rules and set-up - Vertical Integration: Forcing full Seed to Sale - Cultivation > Extraction > Processing > Distribution > Retail - Barriers to Entry - the impact of strict Vertical Integration - Why it is harder than people think to scale in Florida - Capturing high profit margins: what makes a business attractive - Transparency: OMMU data lets us see weekly sales - Rapid Growth: 170K to 300K patients in a single year - Doubling of product sold + flower introduced in 2019 - Full Rec: Legalize It Florida vs Regulate Florida - Will Michigan or Illinois surpass Florida in 2020?

We're back! In this PACKED market update we cover: - Whatever happened to that vaping "crisis"? Some positive news for Canada for once! - Cannabis Council write an Open Letter to Doug Ford - Ford Government responds quickly - signalling very positive news for Ontario and Canada - The 3 changes the Ford government is promising and why it might save the cannabis market - BUT be careful...they still haven't specified any concrete timelines - Discussing the building of inventory in the system and the risk this poses; How does this get resolved? - The Drake / More Life Growth Deal - What this means and why Manish thinks it's so important (beyond his Drake man-crush) - LABS applies for NASDAQ listing - Trulieve raises $60M USD at good terms - Zenabis seeks to raise $20M CAD at brutal terms - Upcoming earnings: LABS, WEED, VFF, TRUL & GTI - When the earnings release what to look for

In this episode we deviate from our usual mantra of "buy companies not stocks" and talk about why it is important to be a good stock and what makes a good stock.  How do companies capture investor attention and get love from the capital markets? We differentiate between being a fundamentally good long term investment and being a good stock that captures the attention of investors.

This is an episode we recorded in the summer after visiting Detroit for a conference. We give an overview of the Michigan market and why we think it will be one investors should pay close attention to. - The revitalization of Detroit since 2008 - The 6 main types of licenses (similar to California's model): #1) Cultivation #2) Processing / Extraction / Manufacturing #3)  Retail / Dispensary #4) Secure Transport (stand alone) #5) Lab Testing (stand alone) #6) Micro-Grow - How Michigan compares to Florida in terms of patient count - Why Michigan is actually a tourist destination - Why Michigan will be a smoother roll-out than Ontario - X-Factor: Michigan's Black Market - Future Predictions for the Michigan Market

This was a fun one! In this episode we talk about our favourite new products we've seen or tried.  Most of these products are from California and give us a hint of what's to come in other markets. #1) HEXO CBD Peppermint Spray - https://ocs.ca/products/elixir-cbd-peppermint-oil-oral-spray-hexo (Canada only) #2) THC & CBD Infused Bath Bomb - https://myjane.com/ (California subscription service) #3) Atlas Edibles Raspberry Hibiscus Beverage Mix - http://atlasedibles.com/raspberry-hibiscus/ (California only) #4) CBD lined Eye Mask - https://myjane.com/ (California subscription service) #5) Dosist Vape Pen - https://dosist.com/ #6) Foria Sexual Wellness - https://foriapleasure.com/pages/home What's the coolest product you've seen or tired? Let us know - [email protected]

In this episode we explore the July 2019 sales data for Canada and compare it to sales numbers for mature US markets - How Canada compares to Colorado, Washington and Oregon (mature markets) - How other emerging markets like California and Nevada compare - We breakdown how sales are doing and what future sales might look like  - Lastly we derive future potential valuations from both conservative and aggressive projections  - How do the current market valuations compare to future potential? - Where is there more opportunity for investors? Ultimate Resource for US Data: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/d2txuf/us_statebystate_cannabis_industry_data_sources/ **Footnote: The Canada data is based on July 2019 sales data

In This Market Update: - Valens Grow releases excellent earnings. What this means for the extraction sector - How does Valens compare to Medipharm Labs? - Auxly proposes an interesting solution to $100M of upcoming debt - How this will impact Aurora's upcoming $230M (March 2020) - Origin House - HSR Date passes with no announcement...what's going on? - Cannabis 2.0 officially kicks off with good marketing - Ontario looking at reforming it's distribution model - Nevada freezes all license transfers

In this episode we discuss the new reality of the Cannabis Market - corrected values and the end of easy money 1) The Correction -- How did we get here? - Natural transition from a hype-driven to a results-driven environment - Using real estate developments as an example (selling the sizzle vs the steak) - How the overall sales numbers are WAY off the projections ($4.6B vs $1B) 2) What is Easy Money? - Lack of due diligence; "sizzle" driven investing - Emotion driven investing style - Focus on upside instead of risk mitigation (Greed > Fear) 3) The Effects of Easy Money - Asset prices / Company Valuations start to rise rapidly - How this has happened in Real Estate since 2008 - Attracting shady players ("promotes") - Speculative behaviour of investors chasing comparable gains 4) What Next? What does this mean for investors? - Resetting values can be attractive for investors - "Cashed up" players can take advantage of this downturn through M&A - Investors need to pay closer attention to margins: gross and net - Cash and Cashflow are extremely important - Focus on companies who have a proven ability to execute and make money - How a failing company can create an investing opportunity in a winning company Bonus: Manish and Abi make a $3 Billion Dollar Bet for 2020

We are at a critical juncture in Cannabis: - There is a structural shift to evaluating companies on fundamentals and cash burn - Bad News: Medmen and Pharmacann cancel proposed merger - Who got a better deal? And Medmen's CFO getting fired - How this might impact Origin House / Cresco Labs - More Bad News: HEXO misses revenue and CFO gets fired (note the pattern) - HEXO drops hard in price - is it valued fairly? - Even More Bad News: Village Farms raises $25M at half the value from a few months ago - How  we should have seen this coming - What this says about the market and about VFF (good and bad) - Good News! Mitch McConnell (senate leader) visits California and meets with Cannabis companies - This bodes well for the SAFE Banking Act vote (but still uncertain) - Good News: MediPharm Labs gets an increased bank facility at reasonable rates