President-elect Trump will return to the White House in January with a commitment to rapidly defeat inflation by lowering energy prices. Trump’s energy agenda presents downside risks to oil prices from deregulation and increased US production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues. But with US oil supply growth moderating and GCC countries unlikely to offset lost exports, any policies that might raise oil prices will likely defer to Trump’s key objective of maintaining low energy prices. Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring down oil prices. Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we look for a large 1.3 mbd surplus and an average Brent of $73, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64. In 2026, another year of large surpluses will drive Brent prices below $60 by year-end, with an average Brent forecast of $61 and WTI at $57.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 22, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840755-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.        

Last month our team published “EM as an Asset Class Evolves and Diversifies,” an update of the EM as an Asset Class series that J.P. Morgan research has been producing over the past two decades. In the report we take a longer-term look at how the outlook for EM has shifted as the asset class has evolved.   Within the report you can find our “EM Sovereign Credit Markets” section, which we review in this webinar. In short: sovereign debt levels have risen but without the wave of defaults that were feared after the pandemic, and credit ratings have now stabilized. In our section we analyze the cyclicality of EM sovereign credit spreads versus the more idiosyncratic nature of sovereign defaults; highlight the evolution of the EM sovereign debt architecture; update our analysis of external financing trends and debt dynamics; and we look into ownership of the asset class.    Speakers: Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Research Nishant Poojary,  Emerging Markets Strategy Gorka Lalaguna, Emerging Markets Strategy Fariha Ahmmed, Emerging Markets Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 19, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824425-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates Strategist Phoebe White discusses her takeaways from the October CPI report, as well as the path ahead for US rates and inflation markets. October CPI showed broad-based strength, outside of some idiosyncratic weakness in core goods prices, and points to some stickiness in core services inflation, even before considering upside risks stemming from policy uncertainty. With Treasury valuations cheap and the Fed maintaining an easing bias, there is likely limited room for yields to rise further. TIPS breakevens are likely to outperform their historical beta to nominal yields in a rally. Speaker: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Since late-October, a price premium has been building in the TTF natural gas market, particularly summer 2025. Starting the winter season with lower storage in the ground relative to last year, the European natural gas market has had to contend with a colder than normal November, a huge amount of uncertainty regarding whether Russian gas will flow through Ukraine in 2025, and slower than anticipated commencement timelines for new North American LNG export projects. We will discuss whether this risk premium is justified and how we see risks to the current price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2025-26.   Speakers: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 15, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4842530-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

FX markets are finally behaving as expected post-US elections. Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the path ahead and outline why the FX moves are not yet done.   This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4846770-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840487-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Description: Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle. This podcast was recorded on November 12, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The Trump Presidency and the widely expected Red Sweep amplifies USD exceptionalism on multiple channels......President Trump’s proclamation for the US thus applies to the dollar as well. Indeed, no other currency has what the dollar has: superior growth and equities, higher yield, defensive characteristics.  We discuss outlook for the dollar post US elections and discuss the various DM central banks meetings over the past week. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840351-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on European rate markets following a busy week of events with the US election, Riksbank, Norges Bank and BoE meetings and the collapse of the German coalition government. Speakers: Francis Diamond, Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 8 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4836095-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The initial post-election sell-off in gold ran counter to both our and consensus expectations. We think it’s much more about near-term position squaring than a break in our thesis that a Republican sweep of government will likely continue to fuel further upside for gold in 2025 as the debasement trade rumbles on.  Base metals prices have swung dramatically following the election. While there will likely eventually be a good risk/reward set up to add length in base metals again in the coming quarters we don’t think we are there yet and are more cautious on base metals prices over the coming weeks. Following the Trump election victory, Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research, outlines our outlook for metals from here.   Speaker: Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 8, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4838877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class after the US elections.     This podcast was recorded on 08  November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke, Ladislav Jankovic  and James Nelligan take a final look at the tactical setup for FX heading into next week’s election, including potential targets across election outcomes for key dollar pairs. They also evaluate what’s priced into spot and options markets. Our strategists conclude with implications for GBP following this week’s highly-anticipated budget announcement. Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832528-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We cut through the noise to explore the policies that will be prioritized by any new administration, regardless of the election outcome, and asses their implications for commodities markets. The top priority for both administrations is to ensure the security of supply in energy and minerals and to lower energy prices to curb inflation. Debasement trades are likely to perform well under any administration, though could get further supercharged under a Republican sweep. Gold stands out as the commodity of choice for hedging the US elections.   Speakers:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 1, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832733-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges recap Treasury’s November refunding announcement and the expectations for issuance over the medium term. Speakers: Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategy This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832276-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss how EM asset markets are looking ahead of the US election and takeaways from the recent Washington conferences. This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the impact of the upcoming election on Rates markets, as well as Fed’s balance sheet policy and monetary policy expectations. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818573-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4823172-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast, we discuss our recently launched default outlook for 2025. Our 2025 EM Corporate HY default forecast is 2.7%. If achieved, it will be another below average default year, extending the improvement trend from 7-14% default rates between 2021-2023. Such default rates would also be modestly below DM credit. Regionally, we expect 3.0% for Asia, 3.4% for Latin America, 2.8% for EM Europe, and 0.5% for Middle East & Africa. In this discussion, we cover the drivers of our sanguine expectations, differentiation by region and segment, as well as risks to our base case expectations.     Speakers Yang-Myung Hong, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy This podcast was recorded on 25 Oct 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A lot of ink has been spilled on the impact of US elections on the euro. But a less discussed question is what the Euro area response to mitigate any such trade conflict will be. Greg Fuzesi and Meera Chandan discuss the economic, policy and FX impact, if tariff risks are realized. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4826699-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The BCOM Precious Metals Index has continued its year-to-date rally in October, gaining nearly 4% so far this month despite higher US yields and a stronger US dollar.  The continued outperformance in gold and silver comes as markets price in greater odds of a Trump presidency and possible Republican sweep, fueling precious metals length as a hedge against the potential for amplified US fiscal concerns, inflationary concerns and geopolitical/trade tensions.  In this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals research, discusses the key takeaways from the 2024 LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference and shares an update on the precious markets as we approach the upcoming US election.   Speaker: Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 25, Oct. 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4819507-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.   Speakers:  Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research     This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4811273-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the Fed’s new tool, Reserve Demand Elasticity, and its use of the fed funds rate and aggregate reserves to measure in real-time the ampleness of reserves in the banking system. They also discuss some interesting findings from MMFs’ September holdings. Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

During this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Tracey Allen, head of agricultural research will discuss takeaways from London Sugar Week and share an update on the state of agri markets and risks to watch out for following World Food Day on 16 October.   Speaker: Tracey Allen, Head of Global Agricultural Research     This podcast was recorded on 18, October, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818658-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810174-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We run through takeaways from the week thinking about the ECB, UK data, Asia FX and Antipodean FX, as well as dollar outperformance. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4821551-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting, funding dynamics and swap spreads as the UK budget at the end of this month. This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817582-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates Strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their takeaways from the September CPI report, the recent volatility in rates and inflation markets, and thoughts on Fed balance sheet policy following the most recent FOMC meeting minutes. With Treasury valuations somewhat cheap and positioning now short, we think yields have limited further room to rise. Inflation breakeven should also find stability though risks remain two-sided at these levels.   Speakers: Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Phoebe White ,Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on October 11, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report athttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4815265-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We run through the expected impact on FX from different US election outcome scenarios and we provide an overview of relevant FX hedges. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4812241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

It took an escalation in Iran-Israel tensions and the optimism generated by the Chinese government’s stimulus efforts to lift oil out of its three-month downward trajectory.  Nevertheless, sustaining bullish price momentum in oil has proven to be a high maintenance task: without additional catalysts, the ‘war’ and ‘stimulus’ premiums have been prone to fading. While possible, Israel is likely to avoid Iranian oil infrastructure. Conversely, the rising expectations for RMB 2 trn fiscal stimulus are likely to be met.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 11, October, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4814501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss how this week’s labor markets data shift the debate over Fed policy, and how greater policy uncertainty has implications for the rates, curve and vol. They also discuss recent developments in funding markets and the implications for Quantitative Tightening   Speakers: Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy Srini Ramaswamy ,Co-Head, US Rates Strategy    This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809111-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810186-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4807300-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party  

Oil prices have been moving higher as the market anticipates Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strike earlier this week. Since last October, we have recommended selling geopolitical premium in oil, this time, however, it feels different. We assume that attacking Iran’s energy facilities would not be Israel’s preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran’s possible escalation. We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries. Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inventories, the odds favor a sustained geopolitical premium in crude price until the conflict is resolved. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research     This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The valley of the dollar smile proved to be treacherous after all, with payrolls and other strong US data catapulting us back into US exceptionalism. Our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for currency markets following the strong jobs data, including impacts on the broad dollar and funding currencies as well as recent developments in European FX. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809182-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the evolving macro backdrop and how geopolitical events can impact EM assets. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Is China’s policy blitz a game-changer for commodities and FX? We discuss the read-through. Maintain bearish oil and bullish copper forecasts. On paper, this should be the valley of the dollar smile but upcoming US election makes this an uncomfortable proposition. SNB didn’t push back on CHF strength, which is a green light for more appreciation.   Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy  Tracey Allen, Global Commodities Research  Greg Shearer, Global Commodities Research   James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803864-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4804070-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the impressive growth of MMF AUMs this year and why the easing cycle is not going to immediately lead to outflows.  They also discuss MMF portfolio positioning and MMF reform. Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799375-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803107-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Global FX Strategists James Nelligan, Patrick Locke & Junya Tanase unpack the FX implications from a loaded week that featured the Fed and BoJ, and discuss implications for low-yielding currencies against more cyclical FX going forward. This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4798218-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Following a 50bp interest rate cut by the Fed this week gold has risen to another new all time high above $2,600/oz. Strong physical demand from China and central banks supported gold prices over the past two years but investor flow, and retail-focused ETF builds in particular, continue to hold the key to a further sustained rally over the upcoming Fed cutting cycle.  Silver also looks compelling with investor length less subscribed than gold and industrial metals now regaining upwards momentum on stronger demand signals from China and macro tailwinds from the start of the Fed easing cycle.   Speaker: Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 20, Sept. 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their thoughts on US interest rate derivatives markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.   Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist    This podcast was recorded on 9/16/24. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792463-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We discuss the FX market implications from the upcoming FOMC and other G10 central bank meetings. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792216-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research Agri commodity markets have been in short covering mode since early August after investors established an historic short seasonal position. Prices are now entering a period of strongly positive seasonality, while the fundamental outlook is trending increasingly constructive. Weather risks persist, and dry conditions are shaving yield potential off US crops, reducing European wheat production, threatening Brazil’s sugar output and raising concern for South American soybean planting delays. Meanwhile geopolitical premium is back on the table...just as the FAO Food Price Index had started to stabilize. This podcast was recorded on 13 Sept. 2024 . This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792960-0,, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4793313-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4785154-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.      

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research to unpack the key takeaways from the recently concluded European High Yield  Leveraged Finance conference in London.   Speakers Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 11, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790088-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis in their recently published update on Euro area government bonds demand.   This podcast was recorded on10 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4787964-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry talk through the US employment data, Fedspeak and the outlook for US rates/ FX markets following a rollercoaster Friday.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789008-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790005-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   2 mbd of crude inventory draw since the end of June bring global stocks to their lowest level since 2017, confirming the resilience of global demand. Yet a substantially softer balance in 2025 is forcing the market to search for a price that will prevent OPEC+ from bringing volumes that are not needed. At current levels of inventories, we believe oil is $10 under-valued and under-owned. Yet, given oil’s significant underperformance in August, we shave our 4Q24 price forecast from $85 to $80, but keep 2025 unchanged at $75.   This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept. 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779731-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, our Global FX Strategists Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss implications of recent rates compression for the dollar & global FX. We also discuss the outlook for EUR/USD, as well as the FX implications from US disinflation outpacing other parts of the world. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 23 August 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779820-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and James Nelligan discuss the non-linear links between central bank easing cycles and currencies in the context of upcoming Fed cuts.   Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy    This podcast was recorded on August 16, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773369-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan Interest Rate Strategist Phoebe White and US economist Mike Hanson discuss their takeaways from the July CPI report, the path ahead for Fed policy, and what we may (or may not) learn from Chair Powell at next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. They also provide their views on rates and inflation markets following recent volatility. Speakers: Phoebe White Michael Hanson This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773440-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-TXGZRLBR for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.   Speakers Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy  Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research    This podcast was recorded on August 14, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4764990-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

JPMorgan Interest Rate Strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss recent events in the markets and their views going forward. This discussion covers a lot of ground, from the weak Payrolls report and subsequent Fed-speak, to recent headlines about issuance in the 20Y sector, to carry trade unwinds, swap spreads, volatility and the Fed’s balance sheet normalization.   Speakers: Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 9 August 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4758481-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4767527-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.