What's up! It's episode 30 of Payne Points of Wealth! The economy is opening up at warp speed. We literally have had a hundred million COVID-19 vaccine doses administered as of the recording of this podcast. The economic data is looking better and better. We're seeing a huge rotation in the stock market— that we identified for you months ago.  The world is changing. The world is shifting. The world is opening up. We're going to talk about how you need to play that in your portfolio and what you need to be thinking about with regards to the economy. We're also going to cover what risks you may have in your portfolio and what risks you don't see that you have in your portfolio. We're also going to point out all the different risks that you need to avoid as the economy reopens and the world becomes a better place. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What’s wrong with the economy [1:55] The Wall Street consensus [4:03] Inflation hedges [8:01] The Tipping Point [9:45] Are risk tolerance tests a good way to dictate risk in your portfolio? [11:33] More risk, more reward? [14:39] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:53] Is the uptick in inflation temporary?  There's this big belief on Wall Street that maybe this is just a short-term blip on the radar. Maybe, inflation’s not going to kick in. Maybe, interest rates aren't going to go higher. If that's the case, maybe you want to continue to own those tech stocks and bond funds.  But if the economy is going to run hot the second half of the year because the entire world's going to reopen— and they are sprinkling all of this money on the economy that we're going to spend— odds are we're going to see a lot of inflation going into the end of the year. Which speaks to owning old-school stocks and stocks that pay dividends. You know... stocks that benefit the most from the reopening of the economy. This week on the tipping point: Risk We get great insight into the psychology of investing and financial planning— given the 2000 families that we help manage their finances— and we think one of the most important components is risk. How do you view risk? What about risk in your portfolio or when it comes to reaching your goals? Unfortunately, most risk is only seen in hindsight. We want to talk about some of the questions that you need to be asking yourself when it comes to risk in your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence. Believe it or not, of every portfolio ever reviewed or even looked at, 90% of the investors were taking way more risk than necessary to achieve their stated goals. This week’s hidden facts of finance As auto executives and investors buzz about the coming age of the electric car, many car dealers say they're struggling to square that enthusiasm with the actual reality. Last year battery-powered vehicles made up fewer than 2% of all US auto sales. When we watch the nightly news and they tell us that by 2035 everyone will be driving electric cars. Well, only 2% were sold this year. And I'll tell you who gets it is the Tesla executives. Because as people keep buying Tesla stock, the Tesla executives have been selling stock to the public while they think this is going to be the most amazing event in the next couple of years, why they selling their stock? It's a very good point. If I'm holding Tesla stock right now, I'd be concerned that the management's selling. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 29 of Payne Points of Wealth — tech is starting to dive and old-school stocks are starting to win. In the last week, we've seen the NASDAQ have a 10% correction while the Dow Jones Industrial Average— the old school index— hit an all-time record high. The economy’s reopening, old school -vs- new school, is this trend going to continue? We are also going to talk about what catalysts in your financial life are going to get you going to make sure that you're getting all your ducks in a row when it comes to all the financial things. It’s a great episode so go check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Come take a ride in Bob’s way back machine [2:51] Seeing risk in hindsight [6:19] The real opportunity is EVERYWHERE ELSE [8:44] The Tipping Point [10:21] The North Star of financial planning [12:45] Financial stress test [14:29] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:12] Valuations don't matter... until they do! Amazon, Google, Apple they're all just making money hand over fist. They're the stocks of the future. Or are they the stocks of last year? Either way, we're still going to order things off of Amazon. We're still going to be buying our Apple phones, our Apple watches, and our Apple brains. So how can these massive, big tech companies that are the crème de la crème in the US all of a sudden not be hot anymore? It makes no sense. Or does it? But valuations don't matter until they do.  You're investing in great companies, but is it also a great stock?  This week on the tipping point: URGENCY in financial planning Most of us, if we're honest with ourselves, find it very easy to procrastinate when it comes to our financial planning issues. We at Payne Capital Management know this better than anybody! Dealing with people and their finances is a very tricky thing. So in this episode, we will discuss some scenarios that might light a fire under your sense of urgency.  A lot of people think, “my goal is to make as much money as I can” but making money is NOT a goal. Why do you need to make money? What's the purpose of money? Understand what you're trying to accomplish and have your end game in mind. Do you want to have a lifetime of income that you cannot outlive? Do you want to have a big ol’ pile of go-to-hell money so that you don't have to work for the rest of your life? Are you taking more risks than necessary to achieve those goals? Are you taking enough? Check out the episode and we will help answer some of these questions! This week’s hidden facts of finance Despite the pandemic, the total number of billionaires around the world rose by 412 to a record of 3,228 billionaires. Overall, China added 259 billionaires to this list, more than the rest of the world combined. The richest 100,000 American families hold about 16 trillion. That's trillion with a ‘T’ in net assets. Rather than be jealous of these billionaires just celebrate your own success. The US household wealth is at an all-time record high! That means every one of you right now is worth more than you have ever been worth in your life. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 27 pain points of wealth. And the economy is about to run hot and tech is not. Technology shares have been wavering here as the market goes up and up and up every single week inflation's kicking in. Interest rates are going up. Oil prices are going up. Lots going on in the market. We're going to break it down for you today. We're going to talk about what we see in the future when it comes to the economy, the stock market, and how to invest your money. And we're going to talk about the financial services industry. Yes. There are lots of charlatans in our industry. I'm sure you're shocked. We're going to break down some of the warning signs or things to watch out for when you're getting advice from the financial services industry so you can make the best decisions about your money.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A voracious rally resulting in quickly recovering economy [1:12] Do you feel wealthy? [3:50] The biggest mistakes we are seeing right now [6:26] The Tipping Point [10:50] Financial advisors or glorified product salespeople? [11:41] What is a true fiduciary? [15:02] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42] Overconcentration in large-cap US stocks One of the biggest mistakes that we see right now— and we look at probably 50 portfolios every month, we literally see every strategy out there— is an overconcentration in large-cap US stocks. Apple is a great company, Amazon's a great company, Facebook's a great company but they just had their day in the sun and last year they made so much money it's going to be hard to beat that moving forward. What you have to realize with your portfolio is that the market cares about whose earnings or whose profits are growing the fastest. And those stocks are probably not going to grow as fast anymore because it's the law of big numbers. They've already grown so much that you've got to start looking at where the profits are going to grow the fastest. And that's going to be in a lot of old-school stocks versus new school stocks. This week on the tipping point: Looking for red flags from advisors You would think that if someone was dishonest or they pulled the wool over somebody's eyes in the past, our industry would be smart enough to kick them out, but they don't. If you're wondering about your advisor, all you have to do is go to the FINRA site and look at the broker check. Something you should always look at when looking to work with a financial advisor is what their history looks like?  When it comes to financial planning and financial health and assessing that, it shouldn't be product-based, it should be what we call goal-based. The problem is a lot of our industry is still just looking to sell you something that you put in your portfolio. We talk about this a lot. You end up with what we call collection of investments. In this episode, we cover a lot of things to look for to know if you have someone looking out for your best interest as your fiduciary. Be sure to check it out. This week’s hidden facts of finance Clean power sources, such as wind and solar are projected to provide 39% of the US utility industries generating capacity versus 13% today. On the other hand, coal is forecasted to account for just 3% versus 19% of all energy generated from utilities. Well, who says you can't be both green and profitable. So utility traditional utilities are cheap right now, but they're also investing in things like green energy, thinking about the future. So if you can get them cheap, you can also be green. That's going to lead to better profit margins. I like the idea that you can buy old-school utilities here, and it's actually an alternative energy play as opposed to buying some of these alternative energy stocks, which have already been shot to the moon. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes FINRA —> Broker Check Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 27 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation has arrived. Don't say we didn't warn you. We've talked about inflation and now it's here. Commodity prices are going through the roof as energy prices are up over 20%, lumber prices are up over 50%, and corn is up over 30%. The cost of living is going up. How do you position your portfolio? We're going to show you exactly how to invest your money. We’re also digging into what you should think about when you're 30, 40, 50, 60, when it comes to your financial plan? We're going to tell you exactly what you need to be thinking about at each stage of your journey.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What is inflation? [3:42] Weapons of mass financial destruction [5:31] Old school over new school [7:36] The Tipping Point [10:26] Funding in your 30’s [10:46] Budgeting in your 40’s [13:20] Closing in on financial independence in your 50’s [15:12] Building a retirement income plan in your 60’s [16:42] Scary RMD’s in your 70’s [17:37] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:24] Do you have a portfolio that can deal with inflation? The simplest economic term for inflation is having too many dollars chasing too few goods. One of the big problems right now is the government has created so much money— in fact, the money supplies have increased by 26%— that's the most since 1943. What that means is there's a lot of money out there and all those dollars are going to be chasing a finite amount of goods. When you talk about things like oil, gold, or copper, they're all finite. It increases the prices because the supply and demand get out of whack. Right now there's just too much money out there and that's the inherent problem, that's what causes inflation. Just a year ago even a couple of months ago, no one expected inflation to go up at all. Now you can see it right across the board. The best indication you have is interest rates going up. Now, how does that impact you and your portfolio? Check out the show to find out! This week on the tipping point: Ages & stages of financial planning The first 30 years of life seem to tick by slowly and the next 30 are gone in the blink of an eye. As we like to say at our firm— Payne Capital Management— financial planning is a journey, not a destination. Depending on where you are in that journey, there are different issues you have to address at different ages. What should you do if you didn’t do anything in your 30’s or even 40’s? Just start now, get in where you fit in. Listen to the episode as we discuss some of the steps you should focus on at each age. Funding in your 30’s. Budgeting in your 40’s. Closing in on financial independence in your 50’s. Building a retirement income plan in your 60’s. And dealing with scary RMD’s in your 70’s. This week’s hidden facts of finance Walmart is still the world's largest retailer when measured by revenue, not Amazon. With 2021 fiscal sales of 559 billion or larger than all the 21 country's gross domestic products.  The 90-year-old empire state building said in its fourth-quarter financial results, that the number of visitors to its Observateur declined by 94% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 55,000 from 894,000 people visiting just a year earlier. It sounds like New York's become a ghost town. During 16 post-war periods in which interest rates went up, the S&P 500 was up in 13 of those windows with an annual rate of return of 13%. In other words, rising rates and rising stocks go hand in hand more often than not. Stocks are actually an inflation hedge. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 26 of Payne Points of Wealth and money is pouring into the stock market. Two weeks ago, we had over $58 billion go into exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money jammed into energy as the animal spirits are alive and well. How do you play it? What do you do next? Greed is definitely seeping into the market, what are you doing with your portfolio right now that also speaks to greed. Are you being greedy? Are you being disciplined with your investment strategy? We're going to address all that on this episode so be sure to listen up! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The great irony of the stock market [1:17] Focusing on the big picture, not the hiccups [3:30] The market does its best to compound the majority [5:38] The Tipping Point [9:36] How FOMO is driving greed [11:54] The market always catches you off guard [14:36] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:10] Investing where it’s hot and where it’s profitable are rarely in alignment There's so much opportunity in the market right now and a lot of you are just looking at the wrong thing. Isn't that the way it always is though, it's like whatever we anticipate the most and wherever the money's flowing the most at the same time tends to be where we get the least amount of return over time. It's the great irony of the stock market. Warren Buffet is selling even more of this Apple stock, not buying into the hot tech trade. He's buying really exciting stocks like Chevron and Verizon, which are not only inexpensive right now, but also pay great dividends. Maybe he's lost his touch because obviously, all your money should be in electric vehicles, Bitcoin, SPACs, and anything growth-related. This week on the tipping point: Giving in to greed We have an old saying in our business that markets oscillate between fear and greed. With the stock market going up literally every day now you can kind of feel greed starting to seep in. As we know from managing money now for a collective 70 plus years, when it comes to your money, giving in to that desire of greed can end very badly. Gordon Gekko’s famous speech said greed is good but he lost everything and ended up going to jail, so maybe greed isn’t that good after all. Check out the episode where we talk about how greed can be very detrimental to your financial health specifically right now! This week’s hidden facts of finance Colorado topped $2 billion in marijuana sales through state dispensaries last year, putting it on par with Canada. They raised $387 million in taxes and fees. Virginia legalization appears imminent, which will bring the number of recreational pot States up to 16 but with those kinds of tax dollars, I think it's going to 50. The first electric age effectively ended in 1915 after Henry Ford and Thomas Edison teamed up to take a crack at electric vehicles. The stately battery-powered sedans of the pre-World War One era appealed mostly to well-to-do urbanites. President Woodrow Wilson drove around the White House grounds and his Milburn Electric. Apparently, these vehicles were too slow, too heavy, and too costly. Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

The government has announced another stimulus plan and another $1.9 trillion. Keep in mind last year we had $2.2 trillion bestowed upon the economy, along with another $900 billion at the end of the year. It's almost like pouring rocket fuel on rocket fuel. What this means is the second half of the year is going to be a huge economic boom.  We're going to talk about what that means for you, how to position your portfolio. If you're getting into that financial red zone, maybe you're five years out from retirement or you're five years into retirement there are things you need to be doing proactively with your financial plan to make sure you're on track. We're going to give you our playbook to make sure you're making all the best decisions when it comes to your finances in episode 25 of Payne Points of Wealth, so don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Why is everything going up? [1:22] The misconception [3:26] The hidden rotation of profits [6:26] Positioning for tomorrow today [9:10] The Tipping Point [11:40] From wealth accumulation to wealth distribution [13:57] Having interest and dividends so you aren’t dependant on market growth [17:22] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:34] Be where the action’s going not where it is The day is coming when we can go out and actually live life again. We talk about this in almost every episode, but I don't think people realize the magnitude of just how great those animal spirits are going to be six months from now. You've got to position your portfolio for that today. As in right now. We'd rather own hotel stock than the hottest biotech stock because in reality, that's where the action's going to be. As an investor, you always want to be investing where the action's going to be not where it is right now.  The proof is in the pudding. Earnings are coming out showing Amazon and Apple both had over $125 billion revenue quarters. Record quarters! Nothing like that has ever been seen in the history of the country… but their stock is barely moving. That’s because the time to buy that stock was a year or two years ago when the economy was shutting down and there was nowhere else to go for growth. This week on the tipping point: The financial RED ZONE We talk with our clients all the time about being in the financial red zone. That's roughly the 10 years before retirement and those first 5-10 years in retirement. We’ve found there’s a lot of adjustments you have to make to your financial life to make sure you're going to be secure throughout retirement.  The most important thing to figure out in that red zone is what you spend. A lot of you out there have no clue how much money you're actually spending. If you're not putting in good spending numbers, that's going to throw off your entire projection. It's in that first five years of retirement where you find out if you calculated that budget correctly.  If you think you’ll spend less in retirement, think again. The reality is you're probably going to spend more in the first five years of retirement because your spending habits don't change that much but the time you have to spend it increases. You should always plan for more, not less. We're Americans. We love to spend money. Let's not kid ourselves! This week’s hidden facts of finance Only 55% of global market capitalization is composed of US stocks. Yet, US investors tend to put 75% of their stock holdings in US stocks. This statistic completely blows us away considering how many of the products we use on a day-to-day basis are made overseas. Emerging markets and international markets are relatively cheap right now, combined with the fact that we have a weakening dollar, we'd say the opportunity is overseas. It's kind of like being anti-China, but having an iPhone. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It’s episode 23 of Payne Points of Wealth and Wall Street's gone bananas in a crazy twist. We've got hedge fund managers being taken out by Reddit traders in chat rooms! It goes back to one of our old sayings here at Payne Capital Management “Wall Street’s made up of ordinary people trying to do extraordinary things.” We're going to break this craziness down for you and talk about exactly what happened with the Game Stop trade, what to make of it, and what to do with your portfolio in light of all the market speculation. As an added bonus we're going to talk about Bob's renovation. We know you care about it, his house in Florida, but wait until you hear how that relates to your financial plan. Let's hop to it!    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... This Game Stop thing… Reddit vs The Hedge Fund [1:13] Scarcity of capital overabundance of capital [5:02] Buy the stock not the story [7:22] The Tipping Point [11:13] Diversified opinions do not equal a diversified portfolio [12:09] Is your investment strategy in line with your goals? [18:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:05] Are you buying the stock or the story? You're hearing about innovation. Innovation is going to change the world. It's already happening, but you're paying up for those earnings. It's what happened in ‘99 and ‘00 when you had these companies selling exorbitant PE ratios. They were selling at ridiculous valuations, like Cisco at 200 times its earnings. The story was right, everything that the tech companies promised in ‘99 came true, but not for 10 or 15 years. Meanwhile, the stocks didn't do anything but go down.  Tesla has this huge opportunity and it's probably 100% correct that we're all going to be driving electric vehicles, eventually. They're probably going to corner the market in batteries and they'll have all these other great services that complement their core business. But the point is, it's all being priced in today.  This week on the tipping point: Renovating your financial plans Doing any type of renovation is expensive and you've got to be careful that you get the best discounts you can while still getting quality work. If you hire 10 contractors to do 10 different jobs, then you're paying 10 different people a retail price. It’s wiser to get one contractor who gives you a wholesale price on all 10 jobs and you save on the overall cost and only have to deal with one person. Saves you time. Saves you money. It's no different when it comes to working with one financial advisor rather than working with several different advisors.  You have your assets spread around because you think you don't want to have all of your eggs in one basket. However, you’re paying fees to everyone. You are a small client with 10 different advisors so you're not getting the overall discount that you would as a larger client with one advisor. Not only that but each of those advisors is bound to have some overlap so while you're not’ putting all of your eggs in one basket you are putting the same eggs in several baskets.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Apple reported a record $111 billion in revenue this past quarter! Up 21% from a year ago. Apple now generates $50 million in sales EVERY. SINGLE. HOUR. Bob met Steve Jobs way back in the ’80s after he had just been fired by Apple and he was working for NeXT. Just goes to show you how smart these management teams are. They got rid of the guy who was responsible for creating the first trillion-dollar capitalization company. So $111 billion in one quarter is a record quarter, it’s the first time anybody's done a hundred billion dollars in one quarter. EVER. Check out the episode for more hidden facts of finance!  See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It's episode 23 of Payne Points of Wealth and there are mounds of money creating mounds of speculation in the stock market. As we speak, there's literally $4.3 trillion sitting in cash because the government prints so much money. Not surprisingly, a lot of that money is finding its way into the stock market and creating rampant speculation. So the question is, are we in a bubble? How do you invest your money today to get a good return over the next five to 10 years? We're going to address that.  With the pandemic starting last year did you push your financial planning to the sidelines? Fair enough. Well, it’s a new year and hopefully, you've got a new perspective on life. So we're going to talk about how to get your financial life in order and get it in gear in 2021! It's going to be another great episode. Check it out!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Why we think bubbles are forming [1:16] Is rampant stock speculation leading to a burst? [2:43] Why it’s important to have an IPS [6:32] The Tipping Point [9:12] Tax legislation that may have been overlooked [10:56] Have you scheduled your annual financial physical? [14:47] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:09] Risk is something recognized in hindsight, but there are signs along the way There is all this money finding its way into the market. The scariest thing about it is that it’s not going into the places we are advising, like a diversified risk-adjusted portfolio. It’s going into things like Bitcoin, SPACs, and new IPO companies with no earnings. The “sexy” stocks. These are people looking for a quick buck, not long-term investors. Stock speculation is all around us and you just don’t know when the bubble is going to burst.  A half-trillion dollars worth of options on individual stocks traded last week alone! The highest single-day level in the history of the options market, that goes all the way back to the early ’70s. We also had the lowest amount of bearish bets, or puts, being bought in the history of the stock market. So you have the lowest level in years on people being bearish and the highest level in years of people being bullish. Conventional wisdom tells you to be bullish because everybody else is, but you may find that there is very little wisdom in conventional wisdom. Listen to the episode for more on the signs to look for! This week on the tipping point: Overlooked tax legislation There were a lot of rules and regulations that changed last year with the SECURE Act that we might've forgotten about once the pandemic hit. All this fantastic new tax legislation that you could use with your portfolio where all of us got a break on our required minimum distribution from retirement plans. They waived it for everybody. They also moved the required age up from 70 to 72. That's two more years of compounding and two more years of not having to take 20% of your distribution and give it to the IRS. That one piece of legislation is going to help everybody secure their retirement! There’s more to this week’s Tipping Point so be sure to listen! This week’s hidden facts of finance Japan was one of the biggest stock markets in the world for a time in the late eighties, making up 45% of the global market capitalization. Japan only makes up 8% of that total now. It was a wild ride back in those late ’80s. During the Trump presidency, the S&P 500 annualized 13.9% a year, which is only slightly higher than when Obama was president at 13.1% a year. So the market was almost identical under both of their tenures. Just goes to show that businesses don’t care who is in office, they are just in it to make money! Nearly 87.5 of US GDP is generated by the private sector outside the government's direct reach. Further demand for US stocks and goods US firms produce is fully global. Almost 40% of US firm's revenue stems from outside the US. Mitigating American political influence. In a global economy, Capitol Hill doesn’t have as much influence as you’d think. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Welcome to episode 22 of Payne Points of Wealth. As always, there's a lot going on and we’ve got a lot to say. Here we are nearly a year into a pandemic. There’s a vaccine but distribution is not off to a smooth start. We're looking at another stimulus bill for $1.9 trillion after passing one for $900 billion a month ago! Companies and consumers are sitting on more cash than ever. How do you play this trend? Should you diversify your money? Are we in a stock market bubble? Should you go to cash? We're going to address all those issues on today's Payne Points of Wealth. Don’t miss out!  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Are we about to have a repeat of the roaring 20’s [2:28] New levels of productivity and efficiency that we think are here to stay [4:29] Baggin on bitcoin [6:58] The Tipping Point [9:38] You can’t double dribble when it comes to Social Security [13:11] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:03] A productivity wave that’s probably here to stay People like Chris and others in our company are finding that by not commuting and simply working home everybody's saving large amounts of time. That translates to more hours that they are able to put into their work. Better for them, better for the company. Chris says “I'm able to reach out to more people. I’m only seeing clients virtually and because of that, I'm able to connect with way more clients and more frequently. I'm saving a lot of time and even have more free time for myself.”  Look at Zoom, they went from 10 million users to 300 million users in less than a year. It was like the entire population of the US joined up! Think of all those meetings you used to have to attend in person that you may never have to do in person again. These productivity gains are probably here to stay coupled with the fact that companies have been cutting costs, now you've got liquidity along with efficiency. It’s a huge wave that's going to drive this economy for the next couple of years. This week on the tipping point: Life’s shot clock is always ticking on retirement You have a limited amount of time on this earth. Nobody escapes alive. It's not just about financial planning, it's about depending on and having a solid financial strategy. You have to have a strategy to be able to take advantage of the financial markets. Maybe another year's gone by and you were reluctant to finally sit down and put together a game plan. You put off figuring out what you spend on an annual basis, how much you should save, and didn’t start looking at how your money is or should be invested?  We all kind of gave ourselves a pass last year because it was a train wreck of a year full of uncertainty, but meanwhile, the economy is recovering. The market had a fantastic year and now you're another year behind. The window gets smaller and smaller every time you delay. Not only are you missing all this opportunity, but you're getting further behind by not putting a game plan in place. Every single day, the clock is ticking on that. It’s not too late to start now, and it’s always better than starting later! Go get to work! This week’s hidden facts of finance An estimated 2.4 million new homes are needed every single year, while only 1.6 million are being constructed. It sounds like the housing boom is going to continue. You have the urbanization of America going on and a lot of people are moving out of the cities. They are getting away from the pandemic, getting away from high priced apartments, and buying in the suburbs. Couple that with record-low interest rates— the lowest mortgage rates we've ever seen so if you haven't refinanced, you should— and we think the housing boom will continue and it's going to be a big driver of the economy this year.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Welcome to episode 21 of Payne Points of Wealth! We are having a phenomenal start to 2021. Markets are going through the roof, interest rates and oil prices are going up. The “cyclical stocks”— those reopening stocks that we told you about— are starting to move. So the question is... how do you position your portfolio in 2021 to win? We're going to address that. We are also going to talk about some of the big questions that you probably don't have the answers to when it comes to your financial plan and things you need to address to make sure you're on solid footing in the year to come.    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Tesla: Sell or hold on? [1:38] Are you lucky or are you good? [3:20] What’s time tested, affordable, & pays well? [6:37] The Tipping Point [8:30] F.E.A.R. [9:44] You can’t ignore taxes [14:04] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:24] A fool and his money were lucky to get together in the first place Investing is counter-intuitive. You want to own more of what's going up right now. That's what your brain screams. But the real way to create wealth is to put your dividends, interest, and savings into other asset classes when they are out of favor. For example, small company stock returns come in big at 6% for the first two weeks of 21’. Whoever had the most shares made the most money.  However, when you hit a home run, like with Tesla. How was it that you decided on that investment? What's the next one based on your strategy. You have to ask yourself when hitting a homer in your portfolio, are you lucky or are you smart? The good news is you don’t have to be lucky or smart. You just have to be in! The better news is you can choose to be smart with the winnings and you’ll learn more about that when you check out the episode! This week on the tipping point: Issues to address to build a solid financial plan The acronym for fear— false evidence appearing real— applies here. When the market pulls back, we have this irrational fear that the market is going to drop to zero, so we make irrational decisions. We take our unrealized losses and we make them real rather than focusing on why we're investing in the first place. Which is, of course, our financial goals for the future, whether that's retirement or something else. The reality is if you own an all-weather portfolio, you can weather these crashes pretty well and ignore the noise.  We waste so much time worrying about a market crash. Over the last decade we’ve had clients call saying, “Well, I think this is it. We're finally going to have another great financial crisis.” The irony is we finally did get a market crash last year and it was something nobody could have predicted. We were completely blindsided! Who could have predicted we would have a global pandemic, that the global economy would shut down. NO ONE figured that out. So the idea is, you always want to be prepared for a crash in your portfolio, have that protection in place because when the next crash comes, no one's going to know ahead of time. This week’s hidden facts of finance Since 1948 the S&P 500 index has returned an average of 14% a year when Democrats have controlled Congress and the White House. The S&P is already up over 2% in 2021 so we're already ahead of the game, only 12% to go. Wait a minute. Democrats aren't even in power yet. Why is it going up? Because at the end of the day as long as there is SOMEONE sitting in those chairs in the White House, Congress, and the Senate the stock market is going to go up. At least that’s what history has proved over the last 200 years.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Happy New Year on this 20th episode of Payne Points of Wealth. Things are getting interesting. Wall Street all of a sudden has rose-colored glasses. Goldman Sachs came out and was looking for a 15% return this year on the S&P 500 as the world has apparently become more bullish overnight. The questions… Will it be a good year in the stock market or a bad year? How do you allocate your money? Last year was a crazy tumultuous year in the markets, and probably a tumultuous year for your financial plan too. So, we're going to break down what lessons we can learn and we're going to talk about how we can carry those lessons over and apply them to 2021 to make it a great year. Join us! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Goldman Sachs predictions… are they even worth reading? [1:10] FAT MAG doesn’t represent a reopening economy [4:15] Big cap tech is hot right now but will it stay that way? [5:57] The Tipping Point [8:11] What to do when your asset allocation gets out of whack [11:02] The financial Goldilocks of the emergency fund [13:59] The importance of legacy planning [15:24] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:40] FAT MAG or FAT GAM which is your favorite acronym? Ryan is pleased with his creation of an acronym for the S&P’s big 6— Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google— but he can’t seem to settle on an order. What do you think… FAT MAG or GAM?  In any case, you’ve got a lot of money concentrated in a very small pool of stocks. Stocks that don’t exactly represent the economy reopening either. This could potentially lead to an ironic trade where the S&P 500 actually underperforms this year even though the economy is rockin’. It's one of the reasons why you want to be diversified. We are already seeing other sectors like small caps and energy that are outperforming. Check out the episode to learn more! This week on the tipping point: Lessons Learned Staying invested, rebalancing until you don’t have to, optimistic retirement planning, having the right amount in your emergency fund, and the importance of having a legacy plan BEFORE it’s needed are some of the key lessons we took away from 2020. Join us for this episode’s tipping point to hear the meat and potatoes from each of these valuable lessons. They are definitely some you don’t want to miss! This week’s hidden facts of finance An investor who put $10,000 into the S&P 500 index fund at the start of 1980 and missed the market's best five days through the end of August 2020— just 5 days over a 20yr period— would have a return of almost 40% less than an investor that just remained invested. That's insane. The market does that though, it pushes you to the point where you can't take it anymore. You get tired of it going down so your get out until it's done going down and just like that you can miss the BEST days! Check out the episode for more hidden facts! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

In this episode, we’re going to talk about the reopening of the economy and those big mega-cap tech stocks that are now going to be part of the S&P 500. Additionally, we will discuss products Wall Street loves to sell to scam you and what to avoid at all costs so you can create a portfolio that will give you better odds to win long-term and create your wealth. We’ve got a great show for you. Let’s get to it!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Money moving from big tech to value stocks [1:30] What is a small-cap value stock? [4:00] The sucker trade of the year [6:44] The Tipping Point [9:04] Can I put my entire net worth into Apple stock? [11:31] Should high yield bonds be in your portfolio? [12:59] Whole life insurance policies [14:31] S&P 500 stocking stuffers [16:39] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37] The new second richest man in the world [19:35] TV blues [23:09] What does rotation even mean? It’s Wall Street jargon! When we're talking about rotation it means money has been moving out of these big tech names and moving into other stocks like value stocks. Value stocks such as financials or energy stocks. And we talk about the proverbial reopening of the economic trade like money going into cruise stocks, airlines, hotels, or pretty much anything but tech. These small-cap stocks outperform larger companies and they are less expensive and inexpensive stocks outperform expensive ones. Why is it that investors miss the fact that there are all these other great opportunities out there when they're investing money?   This week on the tipping point: This season’s financial stocking stuffers Here are a few financial instruments that you may want to have in your stocking this year...and maybe some you don’t. First up are annuities, which can be very appropriate for some of you but should not be the only thing in your portfolio. They often come with an income stream for life, and who’s not attracted to THOSE words! However, that can come at a cost. All annuities are not all created equal so know what you’re getting before you stuff this into your stocking. Check out the episode for the rest of this story! This week’s hidden facts of finance Airbnb shares more than doubled on their market debut on the NASDAQ stock market two weeks ago, and DoorDash certs, 86% all in its first day of trading. Is this a bubble? Anything that goes up 86% in its first days is more than likely being very overinflated. So we would say yes. The sale of Bob Dylan’s songwriting catalog to universal music publishing group was announced last week, the price wasn't disclosed, but it said it was sold between $300 and $400 million. There may be a lot of people excited to hear those songs sung by someone other than Bob. We’ve got some more facts for you so be sure to tune in to hear them! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Fear of losing money has been replaced by FOMO as investors are now plunging into the markets, putting more money into ETFs than we've seen over the last 12 months. With Coronavirus cases on the rise, hospitalizations on the rise, and mortality rates on the rise what's going to happen next? Has the market come too far too fast? Should investors wait for a big dip? We're going to break that down for you. We'll also be talking about getting good financial advice versus getting bad advice. How do you know if you’re working with a true financial professional? Our hope is that after this podcast you’ll have those answers so make sure to tune in! We've got a great show for you! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Are the buy signal wires crossed for average investors? [1:11] The Santa Clause Rally [3:19] Thinking like a corporate CEO [5:46] The Tipping Point [9:33] Examples of naughty vs nice financial advisors [10:04] What an advisor on the nice list looks like [14:07] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:05] Why having a global portfolio now can pay off in the future [21:39] Getting Tesla stock for a premium [24:17]  Is the doom & gloom media striking fear into would-be investors? We had $81 billion pour into the equity market in the month of November alone. That means that 32% of all the money to flow into the market came into play last month. We wonder if the signal to buy for the average investor is the market being at all-time highs. Why didn’t they buy in October when the market was on sale? There's a reason why people are fearful of the market, why they don't like to buy when the market's going up. Because even though they see it's a booming bull market all you see are the headlines that are dire and negative. We get pounded every day with news of COVID deaths rising, the spread of the pandemic, and political drama but there's a lot of good news that's happening it’s just not making the headlines. Hear more when you listen to the episode!  This week on the tipping point: Has your financial advisor been naughty or nice? Example: My financial advisor is very good at talking about all different types of investments. She's a very astute investor. However, I don't see any credentials after her name so she's definitely not a CFP. She doesn't offer any advice on the planning side of my life, only on what to buy and what to sell. Naughty or Nice? This is definitely one that goes on the naughty list. Any advisor that gives investment advice without coming up with some kind of a financial plan is definitely a big no-no.  Example: My advisor says I'm not paying any fees and I don't see any fees coming out of my portfolio. Is this too good to be true? Naughty or Nice? I don't know about the advisor, but this is the naughtiest way you can possibly invest. It’s very likely you’re getting gouged in fees and just don’t realize it. More detail on this in the episode, go check it out! Example: My advisor calls me every quarter checks in on me personally, reviews my portfolio, and proactively discusses financial issues outside the realm of just my investments. For example, she helped me refinance my mortgage this year and I'm now saving $1500 a month. Naughty or Nice? Well, not only is this advisor on the nice list but she probably works for Payne Capital Management! This week’s hidden facts of finance The worst days for the market are usually followed by the best days. Since the 1930s, if an investor sat out the best 10 return days for each decade, their returns would be just 19% compared to 16000% had they just stayed invested. If you need an example of how important it is to stay invested last month small company stocks went up 20% in 30 days. That's two years’ worth of return in basically 10 days. If you need a good example of why you need to be invested, look at what happened last month. November was a great case in point of why market timing is just treacherous. For more on this hidden fact and others check out the episode.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

November showed off with one of the best months on record with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all up over 10%. In fact, the Dow had its best month since 1987. And speaking of big numbers, Tesla is valued at over $537 billion— as much as Warren Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway— and is the largest company ever to enter the S&P 500. The question becomes, where do you put your money now as the market continues to go higher with the S&P stuffed like a pinata with Mega Cap companies? Can this sustain through the new year? We're going to break it down for you today. We've got a great episode. Let's check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Small Caps making a big splash [1:24] What is true diversification? [2:51] Good news in the global economy [5:14] The Tipping Point [7:43] Smart 2020 tax moves [8:16] Giving $300 to charity [11:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [15:39] Stock ownership stats [17:18] Investment equality [19:24] You can’t win trying to time the Market With an election at the beginning of the month, all the uncertainty, and with a pandemic, who could have predicted that just like that you'd see stocks go up between 10 and 20%. You just can't predict those things ahead of time, and that’s why we always say you can’t time the market.  Let's face it, this stock market, any market, the world markets are the most humbling places in the universe. There are smarter people than us-- smarter people than the analysts who are trying to figure it out--all trying to gain something that can't be gained, something that can't be predicted. It's too complex, and lesser men than economists have tried to beat or predict what's unpredictable and what's unknowable. The only real winners are long-term investors with patience, fortitude, and a plan.  This week on the tipping point I thought we could discuss some of the financial issues we are addressing for our firm's clients before the end of the year. Not that anybody's going to be unhappy to see 2020 in the books; 2021 can't come too soon enough. Unfortunately, going into the new year means it’s time for taxes. You’ll want to make sure you don't pay more in taxes than necessary. There are a lot of smart moves you can make right now to finish up the year, so be sure to check out the episode to learn more. This week’s hidden facts of finance Historically, gold has been the preferred way to hedge against inflation, and the value of gold still dwarfs Bitcoin with above-ground gold reserves worth more than $10 trillion and the Bitcoin is $320 billion; however, gold and Bitcoin aren't great inflation hedges. The best inflation hedge in history has been good old equities. Stocks that pay dividends because dividends are increased, and that increases the value of your investment against the cost of living. We're not talking about Tesla here, for the record, we're talking about a diversified portfolio of stocks to pay dividends. Dividends are the key. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

We basically have the same story over and over again, pundits are concerned about the second wave of the Coronavirus and as we’re recording this, we have a change of regimen of government, and a new president starting in January. What does that mean for the markets? The concern is abounding and there is record cash, yet the market continues to go higher just as we predicted on this podcast weeks ago. So the BIG question is… where do we go now? That's what we're going to dissect on today’s show! Don’t miss it!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Record highs [1:14] Impossible timing [2:47] Economic data -vs- the news [4:44] Handling a downturn [7:01] The Tipping Point [8:59] Fear around investing in the market [10:33] Too much risk [12:40] Millennials aren’t 20 anymore and they’re playing catch up [14:31] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03] What creative destruction is around the corner? [18:43] Finding a needle in a haystack [20:42] Embracing a history that creates wealth If we know about it— if it's in the press, it's in the price— the market knows about it too, it's not ignoring that. It's the difference between being an informed, educated investor and just waking up every day and making it up as you go. When you look at the historical returns of the market and you look at the history of our economy, it always grows.  If you make a projection of where the S&P, Dow, Russell 2000 or Ethereum Indexes will be in the next 10 years, we'll tell you one thing we know— it's going to be higher. We don't know when it's going to go higher, but it will be higher. It's just a matter of educating yourself on the history of the market. Understanding how the market is always discounting future revenues and future earnings and looking at volatility differently. People shouldn't be afraid of it, they should be embracing it because that's how you create wealth. Interested in hearing more? Check out the episode to see all the brilliant things we have to share!  This week on the tipping point: managing risk Managing risk is one of the most crucial elements of a successful wealth plan. So we thought we’d break down what risk really means to your portfolio. How do you really manage it? Risk is something that's only truly recognized in hindsight. When you think about risk, it's the possibility of something bad happening. No one likes bad things, right? If you're always avoiding something bad then you’re sitting on your hands and inertia causes you to do nothing. But risk does cut both ways so if you're sitting on your hands, in this case, you're sitting in cash. That insidious tax inflation's going to eat away at your purchasing power and you probably won’t be able to retire as early as you’d like. Check out the episode to hear about the flip side of that when you take too much risk! This week’s hidden facts of finance Every week Ryan goes out of his way to make a point that investing in the S&P 500 is not a one-stop-shop when it comes to investing. The detail that a lot of investors are missing is that it's a global economy and China is coming on strong. Right now there are 119 homegrown electrical vehicle companies in China. They have 1.4 billion potential customers that might be buying upcoming Chinese cars over Tesla cars. Just like Yahoo fell victim to a better search technology being developed by a little known startup called Google back in 2000, you never know what kind of creative destruction's around the corner that will change everything. For more fun facts be sure to listen to the show!  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

We told you that you could see a stock melt-up going into the end of the year, and now we're here. Money's come off the sidelines in droves! Money managers are getting reinvested, and the big question comes: Is this it? Have we gotten the melt-up? We are also going to hit on what you should be doing with your wealth plan right now and how you should be setting that up. We're going to break it down for you, so be sure to check out the episode! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Revenge of the nerds! [1:13] Growth that’s made everything else pale in comparison [3:04] Don’t get tricked into thinking you’re diversified [5:13] The market doesn't care about valuation...until it does [6:08] The Tipping Point [9:05] Knowing what you own and why you own it [10:45] Taking money from your portfolio [12:42] Something more important than just a good stock idea [16:02] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:36] Lending money where you’re guaranteed to lose [19:02] ETFs cross a milestone for the second time ever in 2020 [21:33] Tech’s outperformance has “normal stocks” paling in comparison We’ve made a killing in tech stocks over the last 10 years. Its growth has way outperformed what it does historically. Historically, it’s been normal to average about 10% per year. We've seen 18% per year for the last 10 years even though the rest of the value and small-cap companies have done about average. It's not that these small-cap companies are horrible performers, it’s that growth has been so ridiculous over the last 10 years, it makes everything pale in comparison. This week on the tipping point...knowing what you own and why you own it! Up until the pandemic hit back in March, many people would ask why they own bonds? They don't pay very much. It costs a lot to buy them. However, as the pandemic hit, bonds were the only thing in their portfolio that was profitable, and now you have the ability to take some profits from the bonds and buy back into the market when it's low. A bond is something that is negatively correlated. That just means it goes up and down differently than the rest of your financial assets. For more on this check out the episode! This week’s hidden facts of finance It may surprise you that when a Democrat takes over the presidency from a Republican (which, for the record, we're NOT saying has happened yet) the average cycle return has been 43.6%. What usually shocks everyone to find out is that a market under a Democratic president historically has done better than a market under a Republican president. Just so you don't get too concerned, it doesn't matter if it's a Democrat or Republican because historically the market's always going up as long as SOMEONE is sitting in the oval office! Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Today, we're talking about AFTER the election, we’ve talked about the election for the last couple of weeks and we warned you not to let the election get in the way of making good investment decisions. The economy is recovering. And what do you know, the Payne’s were right. The market has been straight up since the election. Well, it's theoretically over, right? We're not 100% sure, but it looks like Biden will be in the White House come January. With elections over and the economy starting to recover the question is... What do you do with your money now? What strategies do you utilize? What should you be looking for? We're also going to talk about other things that can get in the way of good investing and things you need to watch out for in your portfolio to make sure you get on YOUR path to financial independence. Let's hit it. Let's get into it. We've got a great show for you this morning so don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The economic recovery that’s being missed [2:01] Is it a matter of change or waiting on the rules? [3:42] American’s finding a spend save balance? [5:46] Economist still casting doubt about spending [7:08] The Tipping Point: overconfidence in your ability to manage your portfolio [9:09] The Market is the most humbling place in the Universe! [10:52] The flip side...lack of confidence [13:27] Good investing’s just not sexy [15:48] Growth vs value [17:42] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:47] Cash is trash [22:19] Mind-blowing recovery and the why behind uncertainty  Unemployment today is where economists thought it was going to be at the end of next year. We're there a year ahead of schedule. Historically the stock market makes about 10% after net of inflation you're about 6-7%. In the last two weeks, the market went up almost 14%. So that's like two years’ worth of return in two weeks! How’s that for recovery! Are the political leaders on Capitol Hill smarter than the captains of industry that run our biggest companies? We think companies just sit back and say, okay, what are the roadblocks they're going to create in Washington, DC. They wait until the rules are set so that they can figure out how to maximize profit margins based on their new rules. That's why there's so much uncertainty around elections. It's not a matter of if it’s going to change things. It's a matter of the captains of industry, the companies that you all invest in and that we all own, are waiting to see what the new rules are so they can figure out how to get around them to make the most money for their shareholders and for themselves. This week on the tipping point We've talked about this a lot in the past, but your ego and overconfidence can get in the way of a solid financial plan. We've seen many cases that have led to destruction in people's financial life because their ego and their overconfidence in their abilities to manage a portfolio made them blind to real holes or issues within their financial plan. Today, we will break that down so that our listeners don't make the same mistakes with their portfolios. If anyone can see holes in portfolios, it's the three of us so tune in to get the goods! This week’s hidden facts of finance Vehicle sales have experienced a V-shape recovery, increasing 36% from the 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2020. Auto manufacturing contributes more jobs than any other industry when you take into account all the parts, and suppliers, aftermarket servicers, replacement parts suppliers, and support services for a major auto plant. In hindsight, it's not surprising that car sales went up. Who wants to ride the subway during a pandemic!  We've seen more New York license plates in New Jersey than ever before. People are coming out of the cities. They're buying in the suburbs of New Jersey and the subway doesn't get you there! So car sales are increasing. Not a shock in hindsight, but who could have predicted that last March. It’s definitely one of the reasons why the unemployment numbers have come down so much over the course of the last couple of months. Check out this segment for more hidden facts of finance! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

We are finally past the election so we can put that worry behind us... and pick up a new one. As the economy continues to open we’ve seen reports of a spike in Coronavirus cases. Reports have come in about countries in Europe, like France and Germany, starting to lockdown again. The uncertainty has shifted to how we are going to keep reopening the economy. However, if you look PAST those headlines of “Europe Shutting Down” you will see that schools are still open, you can still get a haircut, it’s not the kind of lockdowns we faced in March, it’s more like lockdown lite! Listen to the episode for the full story and loads of other great info!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The news in plain sight [0:33] The certainty of uncertainty [1:46] Necessity is the mother of invention [3:23] What’s going to drive stocks higher? [5:12] Dividends are going up! [6:40] The Tipping Point [8:53] How do you get money in the market without being all or nothing? [11:23] Have a trusted advisor to rebalance your portfolio [14:03] Building your Arc before the flood comes [16:16] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:21]   More signs of a recovering economy  Stock dividends are going up. Income's going up. It’s like every company is saying, “Hey, our picture looks good for next year. We're comfortable paying out some of our profits now.” They weren't comfortable with that just a couple of months ago. We think that's a vote for the future! If you're comfortable paying out your profits, that says your future looks pretty good.  A stat we came across recently shows 1.5 million businesses formed in the last quarter. That’s 80% quarter over quarter. That means that as we're coming out of this recession, businesses are getting started. People are looking for opportunities and they're doing it on a huge scale and that has to bode well for the economy next year, and just looking forward to it in general.   This week on the tipping point Trying to pick individual stocks is like trying to pick the winner in a beauty contest. Your definition of beauty doesn't determine who the winner is. You may think that one candidate is better looking or more talented than another candidate but only the judges’ opinions matter. If you're going to pick the winner of a beauty contest you have to figure out what the judge's view of beauty is. Figuring out what the judges think is the same thing as picking stock in the market. It's not about picking good companies, it's about figuring out what the judges— the people that are buying stocks— want and what THEY consider good companies. And you know what, unless you can read people's minds, you might as well just go to the racetrack. Check out this awesome episode to hear more!   This week’s hidden facts of finance US online holiday shopping is expected to grow 33% this year up $189 billion! Amazon plans to hire 100,000 temporary workers for the holidays. That’s a good reminder job growth follows economic growth. Amazon tripled their profits last quarter and based on their conference call, they expect the fourth quarter to be even bigger. It just goes to show, you can never discount the American consumer. The sun rises in the East—mom and American spend. Listen to the segment for more interesting facts!   Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Maybe it’s time to get into cash, wait this thing out, see what happens. Then when cooler heads prevail make some investment decisions later...what do you think? By the time you listen to this, the election will have taken place but it may not be over. The volatility caused may still be lingering as well. We just hope you aren’t sitting around— in cash— waiting for the perfect time to get back in the game only to miss the biggest melt-up of the decade! We hope you’ve been listening as we’ve told you to stay in so you don’t miss the big move. It can happen in an instant and if you aren’t in when it comes you’ll never make it up! You have to keep the long term goal in sight. Join us this week as we talk about this and more and perhaps have a few (much needed) laughs along the way.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Have we been wrong all along? [0:46] Where’s the bigger risk? [2:38] Things people aren’t paying attention to [4:22] Something we hear time & time again [6:22] Investing in next year...today [8:06] 5 days equals 30% of a 50 year period [9:26] The Tipping Point: Now or Later? [10:11] Have your people talk to...YOUR people [12:30] To debt or not to debt [14:28] Are you up to date? [15:56] The perfect estate plan [18:05] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:33] We HAVE been here before and it led us to the roaring ’20s [21:27] Sometimes you don’t see things you aren’t looking for There are some things happening that aren’t getting attention. Everyone is really hot on the Teslas of the world but they aren't talking about things like small caps— which have started to do really well. There many things in different areas in the market that are improving and people aren't paying attention. A lot of people don't realize that China made a new high last week. The focus is on the S&P 500 and there’s a recovery happening around the world that’s being missed. This week on the tipping point When it comes to making decisions on your financial plan, sometimes it's more beneficial to defer action other times it's critical to address something right away. How do you know when to do what? In this episode, we discuss some different financial matters and decide if it's good or bad to put them off.  One example. If you're saving in your retirement accounts— your 401ks or 403B's— you're putting money in pretax, so you are deferring taxes. The problem is eventually when you're 72 you have to start taking it out THEN it becomes what we call a ticking tax time bomb. Those required minimum distributions could potentially push you into a much higher bracket making it a very tax-inefficient portfolio. If you're a younger investor, you might want to look at that Roth 401k option where it's after-tax. The beauty in a Roth 401k, or some other Roth account, is that all that growth is tax-free later. Listen to the episode for more examples!  This week’s hidden facts of finance You’ve probably heard people voice concern about this pandemic because we've never in history had to deal with something like this. However, the fact is we have! We had the Spanish flu in 1918, 1919, & 1920, last checked— there's NO vaccine for the Spanish flu. How did our economy recover then? How did the world recover from the Spanish flu? We don't really know, but we do know it recovered, we know we have been here before. To top that off the 1918 Spanish flu was followed by the roaring ‘20s, one of the greatest economies in the history of the planet! Something to look forward to? We think so! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It seems week after week it's the same story. A lot of uncertainty out there. Most Wall Street strategists have been negative and wary. Bob, Ryan, and Chris had been very bullish and the market continues to go higher. Bob, Ryan, and Chris continue to be right while strategists continue to be wrong. What's going on?  There’s a fog of uncertainty that seems to be shadowed by the fact that earnings are starting to get strong. In truth, of the 10% of the S&P companies that recently reported their earnings, 86% topped the consensus expectations. Even though the analysts and the economist continue to be pessimistic we’ve had good economic numbers on a weekly basis and quarterly earnings are off to a phenomenal start. Listen to the episode for more info.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The news in plain sight [0:35] Is economic growth picking up? [2:04] Elections affecting pullbacks in the market [3:49] Reality... [5:03] Something stocks love [5:54] The irony of right now [7:02] The Tipping Point [9:05] Why we’ve never had a client hold a bond fund [12:52] The best advice you can give anybody right now [13:53] 900 times forward earnings! [15:54] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06] Past performance doesn’t tell you what will happen going forward [19:53]   Don’t miss the melt-up because you were sitting in cash The great irony right now is that you may think that by going to cash you're playing it safe, but in reality, what you're doing is risking a huge melt up to the upside. Because of low-interest rates and de-urbanization the housing and automobile markets are growing like crazy. We've been talking about this trend a lot. In New York City people are leaving and going to the suburbs. Then they need to buy a car, so car sales are up 50% in the last couple of months. So that part of the economy is already cooking.  What if we start to travel again on top of that? It's almost like it's going to be the economy on steroids versus where we were in January pre-pandemic. We’re really scared to miss the upside here and investors should be too. You shouldn't be worried about another big sell-off, which could happen, but realistically we probably won't see one as we did in March. But what you want in on this year is a huge melt up to the upside. If you miss that move, if you miss that return, that's basically your next decade of move in stocks. If you want more on this topic and more check out this episode of Payne Points of Wealth! This week on the tipping point The best advice we can give right now is that the #1 thing you need to know— the only true hedge in any portfolio— isn't gold, it isn't buying puts, it isn't trading the market. It's owning high-quality bonds that have a fixed rate of interest and a maturity date. That’s the only hedge we’ve ever seen in 45 years that works, and it works every single time. You want to protect your principal owned bonds that have a fixed rate of return and maturity date and make sure they're high quality. And be sure you have someone who knows what they're doing to be certain that they're high quality! Listen to the tipping point segment for more great tips! This week’s hidden facts of finance The best performing stock’s past performance is 100% indicative of… past performance. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen going forward. When a stock goes up 100% it typically doesn't go up 100% the next year. At one point this year, before its stock tumbled, Nikola was worth more than Ford Motor’s $30 billion market capitalization. It now trades at 7.4 billion. The biggest difference between Nikola and Ford is that Ford actually has earnings. Just to remind everybody of the risk in the market, you could have purchased Nikola stock at 80 in June and it’s 20 today. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

The real loss in the market is when you succumb to your emotions. There are many markets and they are all affected by different situations. None of them ever drops to zero, even though that seems to be the driving fear behind so many decisions to get out instead of staying in for the long haul. Listen to this episode of Payne Points of Wealth to hear more on how to combat this fear and many more valuable tips.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Why the market doesn’t care what everyone else is worried about [1:22] Secret indicators nobody knows about [3:08] Things that aren’t being talked about [5:46] Being smarter than your DNA [8:14] The tipping point [10:10] A picture that saves you 3000 words [13:30] Fear of no control [17:55] Hidden facts of Finance [19:50] The death bell ringing at the movies [21:36] The superpower that isn’t growing [22:12] The second biggest total on record for the worst thing you can own [24:39]   Opportunity is calling… are you listening?  We are all human beings and we project a future based on our own most recent experiences, on the other hand, the stock market never looks back. It’s always moving forward. Always pricing in what’s coming months and years down the road. The market tells you every day where the opportunity is. The question is… are you listening? Check out this episode for a wealth of tips on how to be a better listener! This week on the tipping point Should you have an exit strategy if things get bad? What if there is a sell-off between now and the end of the year? We think you have to be comfortable with a couple of laws we call protecting your portfolio against downturns. A big part of that is bear markets, it's not that uncommon and it's going to happen over time. Markets go down, but they also go up, it doesn't mean you have to get in or out. Overcome the fear that arises from negative news by not putting all of your money in one place— be diversified!  You don't want to bet it all on one situation, you want to have an ALL situations portfolio. That way no matter what happens— whether the market goes up or down— you have something that can benefit or something that can protect you. Listen to the Tipping Point segment for the full story and the answers to the questions above. This week’s hidden facts of finance The outcome of the US election doesn't matter to most Chinese companies whose ownership and business operations are largely domestic. Over the last six months, we’ve heard “I don't want a Chinese company in my portfolio” or “I don't want a company that does business with China, in my portfolio” so we made a list of stocks they can own— there were none!  If you have a portfolio of domestic companies and you own a great American company and the CEO gets up and says there are 1.4 billion potential customers for our product. But because you requested not to do business with China, we're not going to sell anything to those 1.4 billion customers, we're going to let our competition do it. I'll tell you what I'm doing that day. I'm selling that stock and buying the stock of the competition. Check out the segment for other random facts! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

If You're Sitting in Cash Your Biggest Risk is the Cost of Opportunity, Ep 09 Politics still have things stirred up but the market seems to be handling it better than people are. Use this volatility as your ally because it seems like fear versus market action is disconnected right now. Just because YOU think the market is going to drop due to election results (whatever they may be) doesn’t mean it WILL.  Never discount the American consumer's ability to spend money. It’s not smart to bet against it. What happens when we get a vaccine or when we get comfortable again? People start traveling, taking cruises, and flying again. The lockdown economy made a ton of money while everyone was in solitary confinement but what about the un-locked-down economy? It's about to boom again. No matter who's in office. Tune in to this week’s episode for the full scoop on this and more!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... News in plain sight: POTUS & FLOTUS’ covid effect on the market [0:39] Your political bias and your portfolio [1:45] Are things going to hell in a handbasket? [3:40] What’s driving the economy? [5:03] Will consumers start to spend again...did they ever stop? [7:24] The Tipping Point [10:53] Holding stock in the company that cuts your checks… is it a good idea? [15:52] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:30] Old school over new school in gains [28:06]   Appreciation isn’t the only return A big thing that people miss in terms of a portfolio of investments is that the return comes not only from appreciation but also from income. When you have a portfolio of high-quality bonds— and you should ONLY own high-quality bonds— and you also have high-quality stocks in that portfolio, you're actually making money every day. People have these buy low and sell high ideas and that's garbage! Stay invested! A better way of looking at it is to get paid while you wait for your money to double. That's the way you should look at it. What it comes down to is your biggest risk is not the election, it's that person you look at in the mirror every day. It’s their political convictions that are getting in the way and stopping you from being a good unbiased investor. If you miss a big move up in stocks, you never get that return back and if you've already missed the summer melt-up, don't miss the next move up too! Stop sitting in cash, get in, and stay in! This week on the tipping point Vanguard released its annual report called How America Saves, with several interesting facts about the investment world. Studies showed that 78% of investors use target date funds in their 401k with 54% using only target date funds. Another interesting fact is that 74% of all Vanguard 401k plans offer a Roth option, but only 12% of participants in those plans had elected the Roth option. The last stat we want to mention is that in the 10 years between 2010 and 2020, the number of people holding company stock in their 401k dropped by 16%. What might be the reason for this? And would you consider it a positive trend? You’ll want to catch the episode to get our thoughts— good, bad, and the ugly— on these stats.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Ball Corporation recorded the lowest coupon ever for a junk bond with a maturity of five years at 2.8, seven 5% in August. The Double-B rated market, AKA junk bonds, is about 55% of the high yield bond market. As of the end of July, bond buyer beware. When you look at bonds and your portfolio, you want to have two things… you want to have a bond that comes due and you want to have a fixed coupon. Well, this bond does have a fixed coupon of 2.875%, but it may not come due. The problem with junk is that they can go out of business. They have a higher probability of failing. When you invest in bonds you want safety. Returning your money's important return of your money is paramount. Listen to the full segment to hear the rest of our hidden facts of finance!  Resources & People Mentioned Vanguard report on How America Saves See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

As headwinds continue to blow, uncertainty continues to be at heightened levels. What we're hearing and seeing is everyone feeling like the economy is starting to stall. That we've had a V-shape recovery and there's this consensus out there that maybe it's over. Top that with an impending second wave of the pandemic as the weather gets colder and the question we are getting over and over again is… Is it time to cash out before the election? Is the economic rebound finally over? Do you think that means that everybody's thinking the same thing at the same time? Could that also mean that the market may have already priced in all this news? Join us on this episode of Payne Points of Wealth to find out.  >>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE

Volatility & Uncertainty are your friends… dressed in a mask trying to scare you to death, Ep 07 The real story this week is that election uncertainty is upon us! You're hearing more and more news about how the election will affect the markets. Contributing factors causing volatility are the recent death of a supreme court justice, tension in the political realm, riots going on in different cities, all the while we are STILL in the middle of a pandemic. What else could go wrong here? The big question on many investor's minds this week is should I... Stay in cash? Get invested? If I am invested, is it time to go to cash and just wait for this thing to blow over? Listen to the episode to get our take on the answers to these questions!  >>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE

In pandemonic times, zero-commission trading platforms have become the casino of Americans who are cooped up at home. Companies like Robinhood are offering zero-commission trading, making people less hesitant to trade. That combined with the fact that alcohol sales are up 14% since the beginning of COVID and a 92% increase in options trades this year leads us to think there may be a lot of people making some questionable trade decisions. Sitting at home without the typical legal gambling outlets the stock market seems to have become the place where huge bets are being made by those looking to satisfy their gambling fix. At the casino, you put money on the table — that’s what buying a call option equates to — putting money on a table and hoping for a return. Options trading is challenging and not something the average investor should try to tackle on their own. Following trends isn’t investing it’s speculation. In a game of speculation, the house is more likely to win, so I guess our advice today would be don't drink and trade and stay out of the casino. Hopefully some good will come out of this though and people will start to understand investing and jump in for the long haul by buying individual stocks or index funds because that’s where the REAL money is made.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Drinking options...oh, wait we meant options trading. [0:39] Tech bubble talk. [3:01] “Paradigm shift” [4:25] A huge consequence of concentrating your money in one place. [5:08] Questions to ask yourself? [7:24] The tipping point: Investment hearsay. [9:00] When it comes to financial planning what’s best for you? [14:39] Hidden facts of finance: Retail blues. [18:37] Tech bubble, same old same, or something different this time? Let’s talk tech bubble... again...it’s prime time in the news when talking about financial markets and what we are hearing is that it is different this go around. That it’s not the same as the tech bubble of 99-2000 when there was this big proliferation of cheap online trading sites, doctors and lawyers were quitting day jobs to become day traders, and you had this belief that there was this new economy. But wait… doesn’t that sound a lot like 99-2000 after all? When it comes down to it you have to ask yourself, is mean reversion still a thing, or are those lofty tech valuations eventually going to come back down to earth. You should also question whether or not you believe we're going to beat this virus? Is the economy going to reopen again? If it does are all those stocks that are benefiting from lockdown going to be great long-term buys. As the economy picks up and grows, as we go out, drive more, and fly more, as we go back to our normal routines how will that affect the market? What stocks are going to benefit from that? Or is this new normal going to last forever? If history has taught us anything it’s that nothing lasts forever.  Investment hearsay is this week’s tipping point What’s the pain point that has the biggest impact on your wealth right now? When it comes to investing your money and financial planning, we think it’s “investment hearsay”. People love to give blanketed advice. Even if they have no credentials and no professional background. They feel like it's okay to give unsolicited investment and financial planning advice and it gets consumed like it's actual gospel. We think it's really dangerous. You get this advice from cocktail parties or maybe someone very confident about how they invest their money, and a lot of times it's just completely WRONG. Are you getting dangerous advice from unqualified people? Retail blues on this week’s hidden facts of finance  This week’s hidden fact is all about “retail blues”. Twenty-four(24) retailers have filed for bankruptcy from Jan - July 16, 2020! That’s more in half of this year than all of 2019 combined. We are also looking at as many as 25k stores closing in 2020 vs 9832 in 2019. This has a great deal to do with the pandemic but it’s also due to online retail.  Zoom stock has zoomed up 465% in 2020 is now worth more than a hundred billion dollars. Peloton has a market cap of 25 billion after gaining 209% this year, as its stationary bikes replaced gym memberships. Netflix stock is up from $1 to a close of $500, adjusted for splits, since its debut less than two decades ago.  See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Resources & People Mentioned Robinhood Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Over the past week, we’ve gotten calls from long-time clients who are asking us what sounds like a reasonable question: “Why are we not putting ALL my money in these growth stocks that keep going up?” As we said, it SOUNDS like a good plan, but it’s based on a wrong understanding of how the market works. When stocks are high — and most of the stocks in the current growth stocks are so high they are overvalued — you don’t want to buy them. Buy low and sell high is the motto of savvy investors. Ryan likens the markets over these past two weeks to a massive casino. Traders have been basing their trades on the most recent happenings in the market — tech stocks that keep going up — so they try to ride that train even further. But this week, the train hit the brakes a bit. Is it the beginning of the end? You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Finally, some tech sell-offs — and the question on everyone’s minds [0:33] The “smart money” is positioning in cheaper asset classes, not what’s hot [5:30] And the economy keeps getting better [7:55] Two fundamental things when it comes to income plans [10:26] Why your portfolio should be based on your goals and a diversified strategy [16:27] The random facts of finance that may shock you [18:03] The tech bubble could be popping, or is it just a correction? As we began to see sell-offs of tech stocks this past week, everyone began asking the question: "Is this it? Is the tech bubble about to burst?" We tend to think it’s the beginning of the end because stocks that go up when the sales of the company haven’t gone up are risky at best. The growth we’ve seen in these stocks is superficial, driven by speculation, not sound investment strategy. It’s only a matter of time before it’s over — and it looks like it could very well be over. Economists are batting 1000 — and all wrong We’ve all got that friend or relative who continually sees the glass half empty. There are lots of reasons some people see the world through a negative lens, but one thing Bob has always said is that many people think they sound smarter when they talk negatively or critically about things. Economists these days seem to be in that boat. All they can say about the economy is skeptical, but the reality is that we’re much better off than anyone predicted and it just keeps getting better. In every dark cloud, there are silver linings and in the current situation, you can take advantage of what’s happening in the economy to profit from it. But you have to take your eyes off the glitzy, fancy-looking things out there and instead, look at the common sense things that are happening and invest in them. In this conversation, we chat about some of those and give tangible examples of how the smart money is going in this direction.  Your income plan needs to have clearly defined income streams Do you even know the different types of income that fuel your lifestyle? There are likely more types of income than you think. First, and the one most of us think of, is wages or earned income. But there is also Social Security and pensions, rental income, annuities, and interest and dividends earned on stock holdings. You want to build your retirement portfolio for income because income is what will matter most to you during retirement. But as you do so, do it in a diversified manner. You don’t want to overweight any one investment. That can bring on sudden losses that are devastating. What you need to keep in mind is that even when the market is down, interest and dividends don’t really change that much. That means interest and dividends can easily be the biggest part of your return, long term. The secret to investing is that if you own investments that pay income, and if you don’t spend that income, it gets reinvested to buy more shares for your portfolio. That is sustainable, dependable, repeatable income — and it’s smart. Listen to hear more about how you can make it happen. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Warren Buffett The Blackstone Group Kansas City Southern Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

We are beginning to sound like a broken record — you remember what a record is, don’t you? Again, we’re discussing the incredible sustained growth of tech stocks in the U.S. even though many of them, like Peloton and Tesla are not posting ANY profits. What’s going to happen with this tech bubble bursts? Are you putting yourself at risk? And why are some people so afraid of the stock market? It’s one of the only investment vehicles that on average, always goes up. That may sound like an exaggeration but it’s not. Listen to this episode to find out why we can say that, what it means for smart investors, and how you can make sure that your investment strategy is proactive rather than reactive. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The mind-numbing tech stats (worth more than all of Europe) [0:38] Doing the simple math on the top five tech companies - does it make sense? [5:47] It’s a huge opportunity cost by NOT investing your money [10:20] We always think the country we are from is the best for investing [19:01] New York City has a 20% unemployment rate. Wow! [19:35] When insiders are buying, you don’t want to be on the outside, looking in [22:55] Who will be left holding the bag when the soaring tech stocks take a dump? As one example of the insanity happening with tech stocks right now, Tesla stock continues to go up — and what does Tesla do? They issue more stock. That only benefits Tesla, not retail investors who keep buying up their stock. There are lessons to be learned here friends, and some of it comes from looking at history. Back in 2007 the European stock market was worth four times the U.S. Tech sector. Today it’s just the opposite. So, why not buy European stocks now while U.S.tech is so high as an investment in the future?  The point is this: the tech stock bubble will not continue forever. Smart investors like Warren Buffett and Tim Cook (Apple’s CEO) know this. Warren is buying in Japan right now, as well as energy, and Bank of America Financial (all of which is being poo-pooed on the financial channels right now). Tim Cook just sold $130M worth stock in his own company, Apple (a tech company, by the way). What does that tell you? Would you sell your company’s stock if you were convinced the company would go up 1000-fold in the next few weeks? Diversification is a good play right now, to prepare for what’s coming. Markets are like a pendulum, swinging between fear and greed The reason people feel like the stock market is risky is that they’ve listened to too many horror stories about someone who lost their shirt in the market. But most people who tell that tale are guilty of buying a few favorites without keeping a balanced portfolio. Yes, tech is doing extremely well right now, and nobody can tell you the day and time the current tech bubble is going to burst. So should you ride it out, hoping for the best? Hope is not a good investment strategy. You need to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to investing. Diversifying your money makes sense and it’s the strategy that’s hiding in plain sight during this tech insanity. People will always do what’s in their best interest - until they become afraid Because people always do what’s in their best interest, many are holding cash right now, waiting out the pandemic and the upcoming election before they decide what to do with their money. But that's unwise thinking. The reality is this: holding cash is MORE risky long-term than stock market investing. Here’s why: Inflation goes up by 3% every year, so you have to grow your money to keep up with what it costs you just to live. With the average Money Market account yielding 1%, you can see what’s happening if cash is your current strategy.  If you understand how the stock market works and keep a balanced portfolio, all you can do is win. The market may adjust from time to time, and when it does people become afraid, but your shares don’t disappear when the market goes down. You still own them. So should the market drop, and you keep your cash IN the market until it goes back up (and it will), you will reap the reward. Just know that the fact is that stocks have gone up over your entire lifetime, even though they pull back at times, and you can be at ease.  Resources & People Mentioned Warren Buffett Tesla Peloton See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

One of Bob’s favorite sayings is this: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sort of rhymes.” When it comes to financial trends and market behavior, it’s many times more true than most people realize. In this episode, we discuss the similarities today’s market has with the market conditions that existed back in 2009 — and what it could mean for the current big tech stock growth. We also have a big treat for you, our first guest, Adam Johnson. Adam’s newsletter, “Bullseye Brief” is something all three of us subscribe to and read weekly. His insights into what’s happening in the market and how to best leverage it for growth are amazing. His portfolio is up 30% this year already. Stick around, this episode is definitely worth your time. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... THE NEWS IN PLAIN SIGHT Today’s bear market turned bull [2:01] Comparing earnings in 1999 to earnings numbers we see today [3:40] OUR FIRST GUEST - Adam Johnson Adam’s view on the markets - we’re roughly where we should have been had COVID never happened [9:40] Why Adam doesn’t care for gold because he’s about ingenuity and growth [14:26] The base case on the S&P 500 from Adam’s point of view [16:26] THE TIPPING POINT The rules of investing [18:43] Markets tend to return to the mean, over time [20:42] THE HIDDEN FACTS OF FINANCE 6 million trading accounts have been opened recently [24:50] U.S. companies are very involved in China, even its stock market [26:01] Global eCommerce is still only between 22% and 25% of sales [29:01] History doesn’t repeat itself, but it kind of rhymes When looking at what’s happening in today’s markets, it’s eerily similar to the 2009-2010 time frame. At the peak of the dot com bubble at that time, tech stocks were 35% of actively traded stocks. Today, big tech is trading even higher at 37%. Today’s S&P 500 is trading at 26X this year’s forward earnings, which is exactly what it was trading at back in September of 2009. And back then, the NASDAQ traded at 35X forward earnings and is trading at that same pace today. What’s the point? We just might want to consider what happened back then, after tech stock prices kept rising and rising. They didn’t stay high. They came tumbling down when the bubble burst. Are there lessons for today’s investors? Listen to hear how overvaluations and tech investing newbies may be leading investors to a similar downturn. Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it Let’s take TESLA as an example of the craziness going on right now. Its stock is up 525% over the last 12 months and a Bank of America analyst just upgraded it. Chris just had a conversation with a client whose TESLA stock is up 80% but he’s hesitant to take the profits from it for fear it will go even higher and he'll miss out. What he’s failing to realize is that what’s happened to TESLA is not normal market behavior. When the tide goes the other way, it’s not pretty. We can see that investor behavior really hasn’t changed much over the years or through the generations. Millennials are still trading stocks that are up rather than doing the due diligence needed to make wise, long-term investments. It’s not as alluring to buy low because those stocks are not the darlings everybody is talking about. But it’s typically one of the wisest choices to make long-term. If not big tech stocks, then what? Like tech stocks that keep going up (and feel like they will never go down again), the current trends won’t continue to rise. For that reason, we want to be thinking about the next 10 years, not just about today’s trends. Our guest on this episode, Adam Johnson makes it his stock and trade to find the places to put his money that will accomplish growth long term.  Currently, Adam’s investing in Biotech, Medtech, and Energy — and he has NO money in the big tech companies. What’s his result been? Admittedly, when COVID first hit, his portfolio was down 30% almost immediately, but it’s recovered completely and appears to be growing even more.  Adam also believes that because the demand for oil hasn’t disappeared, coupled with the fact that it takes a very long time to jump-start oil production, we’re set for a recovery in the oil sector. He believes the equilibrium (where oil companies can both make money and can afford to invest in new wells) is somewhere in the $50 per barrel range, so there’s still plenty of room for growth if he’s right. Listen to hear Adam’s insights and to rethink your investing strategy. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes The Jesse Livermore book mentioned by Ryan Adam Johnson, founder of Bullseye Brief (get your 45 day trial) Cheniere Energy - one of Adam’s current favorites Energy Transfer - another of Adam’s current favorites RobinHood Trading Platform Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify