Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it has indicated, a “soft landing” is very achievable. However, Dutta notes that if the Fed does not cut and interest rates remain restrictive, his outlook may change throughout the year. Filmed on January 19, 2022. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:25) Why The Much-Anticipated Recession of 2023 Never Arrived (03:53) How "Leading Indicators" Were Giving False Recession Signals (06:32) Why The Leading Indicators Were Wrong (11:18) You Typically Don't See A Recession When Real Incomes Are Rising (13:19) Setting The Record Straight On "Excess Savings" Narrative (16:30) VanEck Ad (20:13) The Fed and Interest Rates (22:55) Long Lags = Nonsense? (26:21) Neil Dutta's Economic Outlook: Real Incomes Will Continue To Grow Into Summer 2024 (27:00) Inflation Is Falling By A Lot More Than People Think (28:33) The Bond Market Has Been Dead Wrong This Cycle (31:08) Credit Conditions And The Banking System (34:11) Delinquencies (35:49) The Labor Market Is Strong But Cooling (40:54) If Fed Doesn't Cut, That Would Be A Tightening Of Financial Conditions That Could Slow Economy (42:12) Views On Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors (45:00) China (46:29) Election Risk For The Bond Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey’s specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey’s website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey’s Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.

Michaell Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on his outlook on global liquidity. Howell notes that further evidence supports his long-held view that liquidity bottomed in October 2022, and he explains why he expects liquidity to strengthen further into 2024, making for a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Filmed on January 11, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow CrossBorder Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Howell: Liquidity Conditions Continue To Strengthen From Their Lows In The Early Fall of 2022 (12:26) Implications For Stocks, Gold, and Crypto (22:50) Industry Sectors At This Stage In The Liquidity Cycle (24:37) The Bond Market Is Being Distorted By The Federal Reserve (30:07) Term Premia And Convexity In Fixed-Income (37:07) Bank Term Funding Program and Draining of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (40:11) Drivers Of Fed Liquidity In 2024 and Beyond (45:50) The Economic Cycle Is Different Than The Liquidity Cycle (50:51) Is Demand For Refinancing (and Liquidity) Lower Because U.S. Corporates & Households Have Such Long-Duration Liabilities? (54:35) China and The People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:06:56) Howell's View On Interest Rates (01:09:08) Non-Central Bank Sources of Liquidity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, joins Forward Guidance to discuss revelations from his new book, “Rigged: The Incredible True Story Of The Whistleblowers Jailed After Exposing The Rotten Heart Of The Financial System.” Verity argues that the traders who were convicted of rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) are mere scapegoats, and that the real “rigging” was on a scale much larger and was encouraged by central bankers and bank CEOs. This interview features four recordings with former Barclays employee Peter Johnson, which show Johnson raising the alarm bell that nearly every bank was vastly underreporting their true cost of borrowing in the London Eurodollar market. Despite this, Johnson was later accused and convicted of conspiracy to defraud. These recordings are only a tiny fraction of the enormous amount of evidence Verity has collected, which can be found in his book as well as online in several links which will be shared below. Filmed on January 5, 2024. __ Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Andy Verity on Twitter https://twitter.com/andyverity Andy Verity’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Incredible-Whistleblowers-Exposing-Financial/dp/0750998857 Rigged, You Be The Judge: https://andyverity.substack.com/p/rigged-you-be-the-judge-7ad?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy's NEW Post (January 16, 2024), What the FBI + Gary Gensler's CFTC knew about interest rate manipulation ordered from the top - but didn't tell Congress or the public": https://andyverity.substack.com/p/what-the-fbi-gary-genslers-cftc-knew?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy Verity’s recordings on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/andy-verity-74636470 The Lowball Tapes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0014wtn BBC News Panorama Program: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpUX1WJwivQ&t=96s Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:37) What is LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)? (10:09) The Price Of No Apples (12:07) The Evidence (Taped Phone Calls) (23:22) Traders' Requests Were Punished Whereas "Lowballing" Was Not (37:08) Higher-ups' Involvement: Bank of England, BBA, Federal Reserve, U.K. Government (41:28) Gary Gensler's Role In Alleged Cover-Up (45:30) Peter Johnson, One Of The Very Few Who Cared That LIBOR Was Fraudulent, Was Sent To Jail (52:11) Lowballing Never Came To Court (55:03) The Fall of LIBOR, The Rise of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (01:01:19) The LIBOR Trials In The Wake Of The Great Financial Crisis (01:17:59) Where The LIBOR Case Stands In 2024 (01:26:15) The Future of Eurodollars And London In A LIBOR-Less World (01:29:25) Concluding Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom (08:54) Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy? (10:29) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (15:11) Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan (20:53) Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market (24:48) Bond Market and Fed Policy (33:24) Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts (34:10) Floor vs. Corridor System (42:08) Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook (51:14) Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market (57:14) Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens (01:07:36) Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF) (01:11:04) Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting and publisher of The pH Report returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on the state of the chemicals and automotive industry. Hodges sees significant overcapacity in chemicals and persistently low price of ethene, propylene, and other chemicals suggests that demand is weakening. Jack asks about whether the fall in inflation in the U.S. economy, which occurred while the labor market and spending stayed strong, indicates that a “soft landing” is a likely outcome in the U.S. or might have even already occurred. Filmed on January 5, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 New Normal Consulting https://t.co/d5mkV0QuBb pH Report https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (26:09) The Bank of Japan Faces A Dilemma (29:09) Why China's Economy Could Remain Weak For Longer Than Many Expect (43:25) The Chemicals Market Remains Weak (55:42) Will The U.S. Continue To Be Immune To Global Slowdown? (01:09:13) Euphoria In The Stock Market (01:10:43) Hodges' Concerns About The Bond Market (01:17:59) Why Can't The Printing Continue? (01:27:52) The Federal Reserve In 2024 (01:34:12) Why Paul Is The Most Risk Averse He's Ever Been (01:40:12) Geopolitics (01:42:05) Green Energy and Electric Vehicles __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. You can go to Public.com, purchase Treasury bills in seconds, and you may be able to earn some of the highest yields we’ve seen since the year 2000. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. -- On today's episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG for a discussion on what to expect from the Fed, economy & markets in 2024. Will the Fed be able to avoid a recession as markets price in a soft landing? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- This podcast is sponsored by Public. Rate discussed is gross of fees. All investing involves risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. Treasuries on Public are available to US members only. Brokerage Accounts for treasury securities are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”) member FINRA and SIPC. Securities investments: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Banking services and the Bank Account are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. Full disclosures can be found at https://public.com/forwardguidance. -- Follow Danielle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What To Expect In 2024 (07:52) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (14:35) What Caused The Powell Pivot? (28:38) Will The Fiscal Support End In 2024? (42:55) Recession vs The Soft Landing (50:23) Heading For A Credit Event (54:39) Positioning Into 2024 (57:32) Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies as SCT Capital Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his many findings from his recent research on commodity investing. Krishnan and Farley also discuss the weather, the continuing dispersion between interest rate volatility and equity market volatility, and if the bond market really is smarter than the stock market. Filmed on December 19, 2024. Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Hari's Journey Into Commodities (10:10) Finding Upside Convexity In Commodity Options (17:35) Corn (21:41) Copper and Metals (22:53) Natural Gas Is Similar To The VIX (most Contango) (27:27) Seasonality (30:49) Commodity Stocks (34:08) Structural Bull Case For Commodities (38:57) What's Harder - Predicting Weather or Predicting The Stock Market? (41:22) Bread and Butter Volatility Trading (44:32) Views On VIX & Implied Volatility (50:17) Examples of Other "Disaster Trades" In The Volatility World (51:31) Rate Volatility Is Much Higher Than Equity Volatility - Why? (55:12) Is The Stock Market Smarter Than The Bond Market? (01:02:53) Reflexivity, Explained __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andrei Stetsenko, partner at Farley Capital, joins Forward Guidance to share insights from his experience investing in India. Stetsenko, who works with Jack’s father, argues that India’s economy is being turbocharged by exceptionally favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and growing infrastructure. He explains why he believes India’s stock market contains high-growth, high-quality companies that may trade at much cheaper valuations than a similarly positioned company in the U.S. He argues why he thinks short-term thinking is the most common mistake investors make, and shares his thoughts on several industries such as payments, banking, and airlines. Filmed on December 21, 2023. Andrei Stetsenko’s blog, Dispatches From India: https://www.dispatchesfromindia.com/ Andrei Stetsenko on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/astetsen __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Farley Capital Got Started Investing In India (08:50) The Indian Stock Market Vs. American Stock Market (15:15) India's Banking System (18:05) Company Management In India (20:00) Adani Allegations (Hindenburg Research) (24:11) Red Flags To Avoid (26:41) Valuations In The Indian Stock Market (30:12) You Won't Get Far In The Indian Market Without Profit (35:03) Margin Of Safety (39:01) Macro And Discount Rate (41:06) The Payments Industry (46:18) The Credit Card and Buy Now Pay Later Industries (50:13) The U.S. Banking Industry (51:26) Importance of Tuning the Noise Out (55:14) Most Common Mistake In Investing (01:01:47) China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Carson Block, activist short seller and founder of Muddy Waters Research and Muddy Waters Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to share his short thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), a large publicly traded vehicle that owns loans backed by commercial real estate (CRE) buildings. Block argues that a “perfect macro storm” of lower net operating income (NOI), higher interest rates, and impaired CRE values, could force BXMT to cut their dividend. Using individual loan level data from BXMT’s collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), Block found that, absent rate swaps, 73% of CLO borrowers aren’t covering interest expense, and 27% were unable to pay just the risk free rate (SOFR). Block estimates that 16 Billion (notional value) of rate swaps will expire in 2024, which will put severe stress on the borrowers as well as BXMT itself, potentially creating a liquidity crisis. Block and Farley discuss Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s “fact sheet,” which BXMT may have released in response to Muddy Waters report, originally released on December 6. This interview was filmed on December 20, 2023. NOTE: as disclosed during this interview, Block and his firm are short BXMT against a comparable basket of longs. In no way is this interview an inducement to short BXMT. Lastly, throughout the interview the term “Blackstone” is sometimes used in lieu of “Blackstone Mortgage Trust”; it is this company, and NOT Blackstone (BX) itself, that is being referenced, as the bear case discussed in this interview is for BXMT, not BX. Muddy Waters Research short report on Blackstone Mortgage Trust ($BXMT), December 6, 2023: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bxmt/mw-is-short-bxmt/ Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s Fact Sheet: https://s26.q4cdn.com/698820489/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/BXMT-Fact-Sheet.pdf Blackstone Mortgage Trust investor relations: https://ir.blackstonemortgagetrust.com/shareholders/default.aspx _ Other Muddy Waters Research: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/ Zer0es TV: https://www.zer0es.tv/ Carson’s previous appearance on Forward Guidance (March 2022): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SScVuA4nf44&t=2213s _ Follow Muddy Waters Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/muddywatersre Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Short Thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) (05:00) Loan Level Data Reveal Interest Expense (Absent Swaps) Often Exceeds Net Operating Income (12:14) Refinancing Is A Lot Harder When Collateral Values Have Fallen (22:07) In-Depth Analysis Of Interest Rate Swaps (30:39) How Does This Play Out (37:07) Risk To The Bear Case: That The Mothership (Blackstone) Bails Out BXMT (41:59) Managing The Short BXMT Position (45:39) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy marketsTimestamps:

Jared Dillian, founder of The Daily Dirtnap and author of “No Worries: How To Live A Stress-Free Financial Life,” returns to Forward Guidance to argue that too many are too excited about the stock market and private equity and that, accordingly, he is short both. Dillian expects the much-anticipated recession that never appeared in 2023 to finally arrive, and he remains bullish the front end of the yield curve. Filmed on December 20, 2023. Dillian’s latest book: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/books/no-worries __ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jared's Bearish View On Stocks (03:23) Jared's Short On Blackstone (06:55) Higher For Longer Was Just A Narrative All Along (09:07) I Think We'll Get A Recession (12:06) View On Long-Term Government Bonds (15:29) International and Value Stocks (18:06) Very Bearish View On Chinese Stocks (22:05) Bull Case In Argentina (23:09) Value Stocks Vs. Growth Stocks (25:09) Oil (26:51) Stock Market Sentiment (28:20) Indexing and The Awesome Portfolio (36:04) The Risk Of Focusing Too Much On Small Financial Decisions (44:51) Closing Thoughts On Crypto and Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Carolyn Sissoko, senior lecturer at University of the West of England, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and author at FedGuy.com, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s public acknowledgement that it may cut interest rates in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of of credit allocation facilities and money markets. Filmed on December 19, 2023.  Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr __ Follow Carolyn Sissoko on Twitter https://twitter.com/csissoko Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph’s latest, “Independent Tracks”: https://fedguy.com/independent-tracks/ Professor Sissoko’s publications: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Joseph's Take On The Fed's December FOMC Meeting (09:25) Does Zero Interest Rate Policy Cause Malinvestment And Misallocation of Credit? (15:02) The Rise of "Too Big To Fail" (24:32) Line Separating Bank Lending And Money Markets Has Been "Almost Completely Obliterated" (38:25) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and Stablecoins (40:48) Joseph On Why Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) Could Continue Even As It Cuts Rates (45:20) Joseph's Views On Bonds (01:02:03) The Collateral Effect (01:17:04) CLOs and Private Equity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

Daniel Neilson, professor of economics at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Soon Parted,” returns to Forward Guidance to share findings from his seminal paper, “On par: A Money View of stablecoins.” Co-authored with Iñaki Aldasoro and Perry Mehrling as a working paper for the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), this paper compares on-chain currency (stablecoins) to Eurodollars to explore how they deal with issues of liquidity and par settlement. Filmed on December 8, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr _ BIS Paper, “On par: A Money View of stablecoins”: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1146.pdf Dan Neilson’s newsletter, Soon Parted: https://www.soonparted.co/ Dan Neilson’s book, “Minsky”: https://www.amazon.com/Minsky-Daniel-H-Neilson/dp/1509528504 Follow Dan Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Why Stablecoins? (04:46) The Issue Of Par (09:43) The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008 (12:12) Did The Fed's Rate Surge Halt The Stablecoin Boom? (22:06) Stablecoins, The New Eurodollars (24:20) The Need For Smooth Forward Markets (27:40) There's No Central Bank In Crypto (34:22) Silicon Valley Bank and Circle (49:43) Tether (01:02:20) The Role Of Zero Interest Rates (01:05:01) The Role Of Stablecoins: "Lots of Fireworks" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Thomas Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights from the somewhat opaque world of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Majewski explains why he perceives that CLO equity enjoys a series of structural advantages, and he also shares his thoughts on the worlds of private credit and bank capital relief transactions. Filmed on December 11, 2023. Please note that any past performance discussed in this presentation is not indicative of, or a guarantee of, future performance. To reference performance and the discussion about Eagle Point Credit Company, please visit the website: https://www.eaglepointcreditcompany.com/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) What Are CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations)? (19:00) A Look Back At CDOs And 2008 (31:42) Impact Of Rising Rates On Companies' Ability To Service Debt Loads (40:14) How Would "The CLO World" Handle A Potential Recession? (43:06) Banks Are Selling Credit Risk (i.e. Buying Insurance) Via "Regulatory Capital Relief" Credit Linked Notes (Are They Similar To Credit Default Swaps?) (54:15) Private Credit - Golden Age Or Biggest Bubble In The World? (01:00:13) Liability Structure of BDCs (Business Development Corporation) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on interest rates, credit spreads, the economy, and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on December 5, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Kathy Jones on Twitter https://twitter.com/KathyJones Follow Schwab Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/SchwabResearch Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (07:45) Inverted Yield Curve Is Here To Stay (10:01) Term Premia Will Decline (14:12) Bond Market Does Not Always Track Nominal Growth (17:21) Can't Rule Out That This Is A Counter-Trend Rally (20:56) How Does Bond Supply Affect Price? (29:02) The Days Of Quantitative Tightening (QT) May Be Numbered (31:33) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (34:09) Investment Grade (IG) Corporate Bonds (37:22) We Are Not Enthusiastic About CLOs and Private Credit (46:40) Sentiment and Positioning In Fixed Income (48:50) Views on Europe and Japan (53:32) Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

This week, Michael Ericson President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank & Dan Siciliano Chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB join the show for a discussion on the current health of the banking system. At the end of the year in 2023, 9 months after the March banking panic, Dan & Michael make a case that the U.S banking system if more healthy & stale than earlier this year. We deep dive into the collapse of SVB, how the FHLB operates & what to expect looking ahead to 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) What Is The FHLB? (04:12) Strength Of The Banking System (17:27) Does The FHLB Have Credit Risk? (28:04) The Collapse Of SVB (37:24) Role Of The FHLB vs The Fed (47:05) Bank Credit Worthiness (01:03:40) Lessons Learned From The March Bank Panic (01:08:48) Silvergate Bank (01:16:02) Silicon Valley Bank (01:19:50) Operational Expenses Of The FHLB -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023. More info about Zulauf Consulting can be found here: www.felixzulauf.com Felix Zulauf is the Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. Felix has over 40 years of experience in financial markets and asset management and has served as a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for 30 years. He started as a trader with Swiss Bank Corporation in the early 1970’s and received training in research and portfolio management thereafter with several investment banks in New York, Zurich, and Paris. Mr. Zulauf joined UBS in 1977 as a Portfolio Manager of global mutual funds and became Global Strategist of UBS in 1982 and the head of the institutional portfolio management group in 1986. Felix served as a member of the Executive Board of Clariden Bank from 1988-1990 and founded Zulauf Asset Management AG in 1990, a Swiss-based asset management company. Mr. Zulauf sold the majority of the firm and spun off a Family Office in 2009. LinkedIn @zulauf-consulting YouTube Channel @zulaufconsulting __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Counter-Trend Rally In Bonds May Continue, But The Bond Bear Market Likely Isn't Over (12:47) Magnificent 7 Stocks Are "Excessively Overpriced (29:31) Transition To Bear Market (35:25) Has U.S Economy Dodged A Recession? (37:23) Some Economic Statistics Could Not Be Accurate To Reality (40:27) Will Inflation Reaccelerate (42:01) Geopolitical Risk Is Not Being Taken Seriously By The Market (46:07) U.S.-China Relations (50:34) Waiting On China's Economic Recovery (53:53) Will Bull Market In Japanese Stocks Continue? (56:34) Tactical Bullish View On U.S. Dollar Relative To Some Other Currencies

Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, “Living with High Public Debt.” Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U.S. dollar’s role as a global reserve currency (“dollar dominance”), financial repression, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he also shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Filmed on November 28, 2023. Dr. Eichengreen’s 2023 Jackson Hole paper, “Living With High Public Debt”: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9749/Living_With_High_Public_SA_Sep_2_2023.pdf Complete agenda for 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-structural-shifts-in-the-global-economy/ More information on Dr. Eichengreen’s work: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Follow Dr. Barry Eichengreen on Twitter https://twitter.com/B_Eichengreen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) High Levels of Debt Relative to GDP Are Problematic (06:07) Ways By Which Debt-to-GDP Ratios Can Be Lowered (14:08) Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Lead To A Productivity Miracle? (19:58) How Bad Does It Have To Get Before A Global Reserve Currency Gets Dethroned? (26:31) Central Banks Are Buying More Gold (30:31) What Could Erode Dollar's Dominant Position In The World (40:39) Dr. Eichengreen's Views On Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (46:05) Is Central Bank Independence Something That's Here To Stay? (49:16) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) (59:49) Dr. Eichengreen's Future Work On China's Economic Slowdown __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilweg’s base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ About Dilweg: https://www.dilweg.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Dilweg's Background in Football and Real Estate (04:10) Dilweg's Start In Real Estate: "Ready, Fire, Aim" (09:00) Office Is The Most Capital-Intensive Sector Of Real Estate (12:15) Interest Rate Surge Has Been A "Jolt To The System" (20:30) Office Is Structurally Broken Right Now (34:10) It's A Lot Worse Than The Headlines (43:10) Lease Term: Comparison To "Duration" In Bond World (44:10) Interest Rate Hedging In The Real Estate Business (Public REITs and Private Investors) (45:00) Are Office Rents Going Down? (50:35) Dilweg's Forward Outlook On Returns (53:10) A Lot Of Properties Will Go Back To Banks (01:09:00) Dilweg's Outlook on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Other Than Offices (01:14:50) The Rise Of Experiential Hospitality (01:17:50) WeWork & Adam Neumann (01:23:00) Dilweg's View on Office Markets In Big U.S. Metropolitan Cities (01:29:10) The Work-From-Home Debate (01:46:00) The Rise of Private Credit

Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Geopolitical Risks Are Often Mispriced (09:20) Papic's Outlook on Russia-Ukraine War (13:30) Blank Checks For Ukraine Are Getting Very Politically Expensive For Western Politicians (23:11) Military Alliances Can Be Dangerous (25:41) Papic on Israel-Hamas War: "Palestinian Issues Have Never Had A Market Impact" (27:31) Papic Believes That Conflict "Will Be Contained To Israel" (34:29) Gold's Recent Rally As Central Banks Diversify Away From U.S. Dollar (37:16) The Market Has Become Aware That World Is Increasingly Multipolar (42:39) Analogy To World War 1 and World War 2 (48:00) What Makes A Great Power? (52:19) What Are China's Global Ambitions As A Great Power? (59:35) China & Taiwan (01:06:58) U.S.-China Economic Relations (Flow of Trade and Capital) (01:11:05) There Will Be A Huge Buying Opportunity In China Over Next 12-18 Months (01:13:27) U.S. Presidential Election (01:16:47) I Think There's No Way In Hell The Fed Raises Rates Over The Next Twelve Months (01:19:43) American Elites Are Not Very Smart __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Until November 27th, a 20% discount can be obtained on 4-pack passes to DAS as well. Use code “BLACKROCK” at checkout. __ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante Data on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow Marketreader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Introduction (00:25) It's Been A Busy Year (02:29) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy (13:06) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (15:44) Jens' Bull Case For Rates (22:27) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate (28:41) Potential For "Big Cuts" (31:07) An Extraordinary Summer In FX (34:34) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the “greatest carry trade in the world,” may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. This would have massive implications on global markets, which Glinsman expounds on in depth. Filmed on November 20, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (09:19) The Deficit Will Probably Increase, Not Decrease (11:05) U.S. Election (15:21) Crypto & European Sovereign Debt Crisis (26:13) Germany's Fiscal Situation (31:51) Geopolitics in Middle East (35:26) The "Biggest Carry Trade In The World" (56:03) Stock Market (01:07:27) U.S. China Relations Are Improving __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023. __ Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:51) Stock/Bond Correlation (14:39) Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L (16:30) Gold & Oil (21:55) Narratives Are Cheap (26:36) Investing Vs. Trading (32:37) Banks & Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (40:46) Correlations & Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) (49:12) Jason's Long Position in The Swiss Franc (55:26) The Role Of Stop Losses (01:03:42) When To Get Out __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the “true” risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and one of many claims that Jack pushes back on, some others being that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has effectively no impact on the economy and that the 10-year Treasury yield is an accurate gauge of future nominal GDP. FIlmed on October 30, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:00) The Huge Economic Boom Is Just Getting Started (07:16) George Says Federal Reserve Has "Violent" Control of the Press (11:49) George Says Risk-Free Rates Are Commonly Misunderstood (20:32) Federal Reserve is "One Of Greatest Creations Of U.S. Democracy," Says George Robertson (23:08) Debate About Interest Rate Impact on Mortgage Prepayment Speeds (30:00) Debate About Whether Mortgage Curve Is "True" Yield Curve (51:19) SOFR is Complete Useless Garbage (01:02:14) Minsky Comes In: Hedge Phase to Speculative Phase to Ponzi Phase (01:26:00) 10-Year Headed To 6% As "Cheap As Hell" Stocks Will Enter "Ponzi Phase" (01:30:40) It's "Foolish" To Make A Call On Labor as Jobs Market At 50-Year High, Says George Robertson (01:34:00) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) & Inflation (01:45:29) George's Experience With Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes -- Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://t.co/jfb5Vw982B Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds (07:18) Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy (11:47) Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data (17:29) Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis (21:13) Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession (22:53) Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash (26:59) Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023 (29:41) Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher (31:55) Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates (39:39) Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker" (41:33) Views On The Dollar & The Euro (42:55) Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K. (47:47) View On British Stocks (50:16) China & Japan (01:00:22) Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset (01:03:08) The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008 (01:05:40) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expects a modest slowdown in 2024. Filmed on November 3, 2023. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Less Overweight Equities Than In January... But Still Overweight (06:54) Monitor of Analysts’ Earnings Revisions (MAER) (11:31) The Housing Market (& Homebuilding Industry) (15:18) The Banks (16:50) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (18:43) Healthcare & Commodity Sectors (20:18) Chinese Stocks (23:55) S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (31:40) Equity Momentum Has Weakened (34:39) Disinflation Will Continue, The Soft Landing Is Here (42:40) At What Point Does Global Manufacturing & Trade Downturn Impact The U.S. Economy? (48:10) Fiscal Tailwinds In The U.S. (54:20) If Interest Rates Decline, Soft Landing Very Likely -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On Todays episode, Ben Santonelli Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital joins the show for a discussion on the state of the high yield bond market. Expecting further weakness in the high yield space, but nothing outside the normal credit cycle, Ben explains where he is finding the best opportunities as "debt investors can now generate equity type returns". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: FG20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:49) Debt Investors Are Generating Equity Type Returns (05:38) Default Rates Will Increase In 2024 & Beyond (12:41) Loan-to-Value (LTV): Investing In High Quality Businesses (20:05) Loan Demand Has Declined Since 2022 (22:35) Liquidity (31:00) Credit Spreads Are Still Tight (35:35) Credit's Performance During A Recession (39:20) The Weakness In Credit Is Mostly Margin Compression (46:46) If Interest Rates Remain Higher For Longer, We Will See Refinancing Issues (50:41) Wages & Labor -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Spinozzi Remains Bearish On Very Long Duration Bonds (08:18) View On Investment Grade Bonds (09:46) Who Will Be Marginal Buyer Of U.S. Treasurys? (15:40) Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasurys (& Japanese Investors) (22:40) The Shape of the Yield Curve (24:07) Balance Sheet Policy (QT & QE) (32:32) Much Of Europe Is In Recession (42:21) European Demand For U.S. Treasurys (45:47) Barbell Approach To Fixed Income (Short-Term & 10-Year) __ Follow Althea Spinozzi on Twitter https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to Forward Guidance alongside Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.  MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting Follow Michael Kao on Twitter https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Michael Ippolito on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates, to no longer work at 8% mortgage buyers. He thinks a recession might start in Q2 2024 as employment in residential construction begins to wane. Filmed on October 27, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Warren Pies on Twitter https://twitter.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/3F_Research Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Why Warren Has Been Significantly Underweight Bonds (And Why He Is No Longer) (12:12) Earnings Expectations For Stocks (24:59) Warren's View On Housing Market & Recession (33:31) The Buydown Math For Homebuilders Stops Working At 8% (40:21) Labor Market Remains Very Tight (43:44) Is U.S. Economy Reaccelerating From Trough of 2022? (48:21) Warren's View On Oil (50:56) Hedge Funds Tend To Short Oil On A Directional Basis As Opposed To Being Part of a Basis Trade (Such As So Often The Case In Bonds) (52:42) Overweight Position In Energy Stocks (Within Equity Sleeve) (01:00:09) Pro-Cyclical Deficits Run By U.S. Government __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What you’re about to listen to is a conversation with Jeremy Siegel, distinguished professor of economics at Wharton, Jeremy Schwartz, CIO of WisdomTree, and Dave Goodson, head of securitized products at Voya Financial, and Jack Farley, who was a guest on this episode of the “Behind The Markets” podcast. The first part of this discussion features Professor Siegel’s macro view on bonds, stocks, and the economy, and the second part of the conversation is devoted to Dave Goodson’s in-depth analysis of the world of securitized products, such as agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Original episode of “Behind The Markets”: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley-dave-goodson/id1194707802?i=1000632103956 __ Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:000 Introduction (01:06) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel (09:07) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (10:51) Dave Goodson On Bond Market (15:42) Does The Historic Cheapness of Agency mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Bank Funding Stress? (21:41) Opportunities in Non-Agency Structured Products (23:24) Dave Goodson On Non-Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (31:57) Is The Risk In Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Not Fully Priced? (40:11) Private Credit CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jack welcomes Casey Wagner, Blockworks' senior policy correspondent, to recap the wild day of the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on October 26th, when SBF at last takes a stance to testify and rebut allegations of financial crimes. Casey Wagner's recent article on the trial: https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-defense-missing-document https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-day-13__ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:27) Evidence Destruction (Document Retention Policy, Of Which There Is No Available Record) (18:17) First Two Witnesses For The Defence (27:04) Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks His Silence (Sworn Testimony Without Jury) (34:38) Courtroom Politics (42:29) How Long Would SBF's Potential Sentence Be? (45:38) Jury Selection & Reaction __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

On todays episode, Craig Manchuck Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Osterweis joins the show for a discussion on the end of the zero interest rate era.  We deep dive into the bond market sell-off over the past 3 years, where to find opportunities in the bond market & the rise of private credit. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) The Low Interest Rate Era Is Over (06:55) The Fed's Tightening Will Lead To A Recession (17:47) Investing In A Zero Rate Regime vs Today (23:34) The Indexation Of Fixed Income (27:22) How CLOs & Passive Have Impacted Bonds (41:33) Where Is The Pain From Higher Interest Rates Being Felt? (48:10) The Heyday Of Private Equity Is Over (01:00:19) Liquidity In Private Credit (01:09:35) Understanding The Credit Spread Curve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy.  We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we seen enough pain for bond investors, or will recessionary headwinds lead to a rally in bonds? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance --  Follow Aidan Garrib on Twitter https://twitter.com/AidanGarrib Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Understanding The Chinese Economy (07:13) China's Stock Market Has Been Flat For A Decade (13:46) Understanding China's Shadow Debt (19:01) China's Real Estate Bubble (25:06) China's Crackdown On Credit (28:19) Is There Systemic Risk In China? (32:16) What's Happening With The Yuan? (36:32) China Is In Recession (43:47) China's Global Reserve Currency Ambitions (50:05) Finding Opportunities In China (57:37) The Bond Market Sell-Off (01:03:50) The Outlook For Equities (01:06:05) Is The U.S Heading For A Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview: “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf “International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf “On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf “Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf __ Follow Bank For International Settlements on Twitter https://twitter.com/BIS_org Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy? (15:56) The Financial Cycle (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening) (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches" (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

John Toohig, managing director and head of whole loan trading at Raymond Jaymes, and Nathan Stovall, director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, join Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to update listeners on the state of the U.S. banking industry. Surging deposit costs, steadily rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity are just some of the topics discussed in this conversation. Filmed the afternoon of October 18, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Latest edition of John Toohig’s “Let’s Talk Loans”: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-70-john-toohig/ __ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Nate Stovall on Twitter https://twitter.com/StreetTalkpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the recently released third quarter earnings from banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citi, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs. Whalen also discusses with Farley companies about to report such as American Express, PNC Financial, Bank of the Ozarks, and Truist. Filmed the afternoon of October 17, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bank Earnings For Third Quarter So Far Are "Cautiously Mediocre" (03:07) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (10:22) Defaults Remain Within 2019 Levels (15:17) Chris Is Somewhat Bearish On Most Of U.S. Banking Sector (19:09) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) (34:48) Goldman Sachs ($GS) (42:42) Regional Banks (PNC, U.S. Bank, Truist) (46:40) Card Issuers Such As American Express, Discover, and Capital One (48:10) Private Equity & Private Credit (51:22) CRE Lenders Such As KeyCorp, Western Alliance, and Bank of the Ozarks (52:28) Risk Of Another Bank Failure (57:53) Potential Of "TARP 2.0" (01:01:30) Is Recent Bear Steepening In Bond Market Good For Banks' Earnings Power? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of “Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century,” joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Filmed on October 12, 2023. __ Helen Thompson’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Disorder-Hard-Times-21st-Century/dp/0198864981 Helen Thompson’s book on Oxford Press: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disorder-9780198864981 Helen Thompson at Cambridge: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/Staff_and_Students/dr-helen-thompson __ Follow Helen Thompson on Twitter https://twitter.com/HelenHet20 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Energy In Europe (09:27) Wind and Solar (13:36) Nuclear Energy (22:07) Federal Reserve Has Made American Monetary Power The Strongest It's Ever Been (32:11) Are Fed Rate Hikes A Problem For The Rest Of The World? (35:35) Implications Of Sovereign Debt Levels On Political Economy (41:55) Financial Repression And Capital Controls (51:34) The Future Of Money And The Dollar (56:47) U.S. China Relations (01:00:46) Conflict In Israel __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off (04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over? (06:37) The Economy Remains Strong… For Now (13:23) Fading The Soft Landing (19:36) The Passive Investing Machine Keeps Churning (26:19) Who Is The Marginal Buyer Of Bonds In 2023/24? (30:49) We're In The Late Stages Of A Macro Cycle (36:16) A Maturity Wall Is On The Horizon (38:42) The Best Risk/Reward In Markets (49:20) Bitcoin, Gold & Bond's During Geopolitical Conflict (59:12) Recession & The Unemployment Rate (01:02:48) Banks Are Less Important In The Credit Cycle Today (01:15:51) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (01:24:05) Seeking Alpha vs Beta -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023. Follow David Cervantes on Twitter https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) Why 1 Year Ago Cervantes Thought Recession Was Unlikely (07:05) Cervantes' Short Bond Trade (14:45) Fed Policy (26:16) Tracking The Economy (32:35) There May Be A Slowdown, But A Recession Is Unlikely In Near-Term (45:41) The Maturity Wall Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Lyn Alden Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy & Author of Broken Money joins the show for a discussion on the recent bond market meltdown before diving deep into why our current monetary order is broken, the pro's vs con's of hard money and how Bitcoin could be a solution to the current monetary disorder.To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better: https://amzn.to/3tizFVg Money and the Mechanism of Exchange: https://bit.ly/3rJDpi0 -- Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Meltdown (11:18) Buying Bonds Here Is Not A Great Trade (14:30) Are We Heading For A U.S Recession? (17:12) Commercial Real Estate Is Under Pressure, Energy Remains Strong (21:51) Risk vs Reward In Equities (24:38) Broken Money: What Is Money? (31:45) Why Is Money Broken? (36:43) The "Golden Age" Of Money (43:00) Does "Sound Money" Lead To Prosperity? (46:49) The 21st Century Has Marked The Golden Age Of Energy (51:23) The Lack Of Transparency In Fiat Money (54:54) Hard Money Puts A Check On Government Spending (01:02:22) Countries Will Demand A Harder Currency Over Time: U.S Dollars, Gold & Bitcoin (01:06:32) Re-Thinking The Current Monetary System (01:16:26) Bitcoin Is In The Early Phase Of Adoption (01:21:53) Bitcoin & The Layers Of Money (01:35:34) The Bridge From Fiat To Bitcoin (01:41:02) Stablecoins -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment (21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds? (27:37) Bond Market Term Premium (35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities (38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe (46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening (54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market (58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging (01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve (01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks? (01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not? (01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the steep sell-off in the long-end of the U.S. Treasury market. Filmed on September 25, 2023. Follow Luke Gromen on Twitter https://twitter.com/LukeGromen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Spencer Jakab, editor of Heard On The Street for The Wall Street Journal, joins Forward Guidance to share what he learned writing his latest book, “The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors.” Jakab and Farley discuss meme-stock mania in all its aspects: the outwitting of hedge funds by individual investors, the transformation of r/WSB from a trading club to a “movement,” the shameless promotion by influencers, and the tallying of who ultimately got rich. Filmed on September 19, 2023. Spencer’s book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/690543/the-revolution-that-wasnt-by-spencer-jakab/ Spencer’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-That-Wasnt-GameStop-Investors/dp/0593421159 Follow Spencer Jakab on Twitter https://twitter.com/Spencerjakab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:23) Fleecing Of Small Investors (16:40) Problems At The Clearinghouse (31:13) Gamma Squeezes via Out-of-the-Money Short-Dated Call Options (38:19) Who Was Still Short? (51:02) The r/wsb Strategy Become A Movement (56:28) The Influencers: Dave Portnoy, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Jack Farley (01:06:10) The Theories Of Conspiracy (01:13:44) How To Beat Wall Street (Actually) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government Shutdown