Cut off that jazzy, sweet elevator music so that we can have a conversation here about 83K all day.Bitcoin $83,307.94 as I'm looking at it on my screen.Absolute rocket ship at the moment.Wow.Bitcoin obviously
broke out from a new all time high on Wednesday of last week, or actually, yes, technically it was Wednesday.
It started Tuesday night as the election results were coming in, and it has been effectively up only since that point, trading right now at a new all time high and at a record high, pushing a new high every basically bid in the order book.
seemingly surprising a lot of people but I think if you've been here a lot of us certainly I personally don't go out on limbs very often with predictions but in March I was extremely vocal that I thought two things one that that was the high
And it was going to be six, seven, eight months before we started to see Bitcoin break out again.That's the normal halving cycle is about six months after the halving.That's when you see Bitcoin break out.
And the other one was that altcoins wouldn't move until Dogecoin started making headlines because in my opinion, Doge is the asset that most people are actually underwater on.And that probably caused them the most frustration in crypto.
And it's natural human nature that when you take a look at your portfolio after a few months, and all of a sudden you're making money again, or things are bouncing, that you start to get excited about the asset class again.
So I think things right now lining up exceptionally well, not only for Bitcoin to continue up before consolidating, but also for the I think that many people have been waiting for, for a very long time.
I mean, we can get into the nuance of what that all tuning could potentially look like in the future.But needless to say, in the time I've been talking, Bitcoin up another 200, 300 bucks, it's still pushing.
And I think many believe, obviously, that this is still on the back of the Trump victory.
of the trend trade and the idea that it's going to be an absolute crypto Coachella free for all of the United States for the next at least year and a half before we go back into election season.We got Robbie here, Robbie. Got to feel good.
Obviously, you guys are heavily exposed across the altcoin sector to not only finally see sort of Bitcoin breaking out, but to see this, I think, renewed interest volume, new people coming in for the first time, I would argue, in quite a while to the various sort of altcoin utility tokens, layer ones, and even across the board to some smaller projects.
Yeah, no, I would completely agree with that.And I think, as you know, you know, Bitcoin is kind of our macroeconomic indicator for where to be generally.So when the price of Bitcoin is doing well, everything kind of drafts in its tailwind.
I was, I literally just stepped out of a kind of institutional crypto lunch.And
you know, everybody is quite foolish across the sector, not just the Bitcoin maxis, obviously, but, you know, the Solana folks and the application layer folks, you name it.So, yeah, I think it's good news all around.
I'm just going to say this one more time, because I just find it astounding that, like, you could have looked at a chart of almost any crypto asset, including primarily Bitcoin, and ignored every macroeconomic indicator, election,
you know, stimulus, all of it.And it's all just following the exact same four-year cycle that it always has in the past, literally almost like to the week or day.
It's comical how much time we've spent discussing things that seemingly just play out over and over again in the same manner.And this is exactly when altcoins should start to move with 2025 sort of being the big year.I mean, Robbie, I've got to
think that you guys are very excited to see what comes in the next six to seven months ahead of sort of next summer when we get those doldrums again.I'm not sure if I hear Joe obviously like you're pretty yeah go ahead Robbie please then Joe.
100 percent.I think the most important thing now is just you know a lot of us
Robby, we're having trouble hearing you.I'm going to go ahead and when you get a better connection, but Joe, go ahead.Good intro, Scott.
Yeah, no, you know, I'm not worried about all the ETFs.I'm not worried about Michael Saylor buying the top forever with billions of dollars of micro strategy debt.
I'm not worried about, you know, the 75% of Congress, including the president of the United States being orange billed.I'm really looking for Bitcoin to fill that 48,000 CME gap that we got from a
It's incredible when you line up everything right now.In a way, you're almost a little speechless.We are sitting at a complete paradigm shift in the way that people are thinking about the asset class.
And just like you said in the opening here, Bitcoin needed to run.We needed to see maybe something like a Dogecoin or some of the other layer ones make these really big moves upwards.Dogecoin's up 100% in the last week, 95%, right?
These are pretty sizable moves. You know, and dogecoin is a $20 billion asset, or I'm sorry, it's a $44 billion asset now again, so moving up from 20.
These are not small numbers, you know, there was a post today, it was, I think it was someone from like, Baird or someone like more trad fi that was out there talking about, you know, like, is this just still a number go up technology? Right.
And you still have this.You have millions of people that are out there that have real capital that are going to be reintroduced to Bitcoin again at the top.Right.And they're barely looking at it right now at eighty three five.Right.
And it's coming back.And these people still think it's for for drugs.You know, like. Ross Albrecht is going to be out of jail by the time... They're like, this is still for drugs.
It's like, no, it's just like 15 years later, by the time they're looking at this thing again.And so, the setup's unbelievable.And so, I would say if you're out there and you're a builder, you're an investor, your chips should be where they lay.
And just put your head down and go back to building and try to make as much money as humanly possible in this time period and come back to this show every day for the next year and a half.When we start to say it's over, it's probably over.
Feels like time to turn your brain off.I think a lot of people doubted that we would get that moment.That said, I don't think a lot of these alcoholics are coming back. Maybe I'm wrong.You don't think they're coming back?
First of all, like if we're launching six million meme coins in a month, I think, which was the case last April, you got to imagine 99.99 infinite nines and line over it.You'll never have heard of those again already, and they're never coming back.
But I do think that maybe in this cycle, there will be winners or narratives will play heavier than they did in the past.
Yeah, you know, I think if Rand were here, you know, he'd probably say, like, pick your winners and losers, you know, it's like, you know, I'm probably, you know, I'm probably buying a Solana, I might be selling a phantom, right?
Like, you know, outside of poly market, you know, I'd probably be buying a stacks and selling a polygon, right?Like, these are some of the things where you do have to kind of pick your winners and your losers here.
And if you are holding on to an altcoin, you know, that hasn't moved a sizable amount up with the market in this last week or so, it probably means that it's going to be a laggard.
And people have a tendency to hold on to their bags when they're down and they want to hold their losers and they want to sell their winners.It should be the exact opposite.You should be selling your losers and doubling down on your winners.
Bitcoin is a good example of that, where I'm sure a lot of people think 83 is too high and I don't want to buy that again.It's like, what? We're going to a million.And whether or not that's happening in this cycle or the next cycle, it's happening.
So you should probably be selling your Elizabeth Horan and buying some more Bitcoin.
Oh, God.I love that you brought that back.We haven't mentioned Horan in a while, but man, those were special days. when we were talking about it.It was a good Q1.That was a funny Q1.Moment in time.Really a moment in time.
Alex and then Lorde, I think you had your hand up and Dennis.
Do you mind, Scott, if I just jump in real quick?I just got to jump here in a few minutes, so I'll make sure I have some quick thoughts. quick comments.I'm extremely excited about where this market is going.
Obviously, this is something I think a lot of the people in this room have been waiting for for some for some time.You know, dating back to 2017, though, I don't think I could possibly be more bullish on the future of Bitcoin.
I think it was mentioned by Joe that, you know, you have this very, I would say almost a majority of members of Congress who are extremely pro-Bitcoin.
You obviously have a president now who's very pro-Bitcoin, and you have nation states jumping into this game.You also have a lot of action taking place here in the US when it comes to policy.People should increase their bullishness, in my opinion.
This market is just getting heated up, and there's a lot of room to move, especially with the support that we have now in the legislative and the policy front. There will be some very big news.
I do have something in the cooking, in the kitchen, so to speak.Scott, you know me well.I'm always trying to work on something.
So I always have a bunch of different plates, spinning a bunch of items in the fire to be able to present to the good Bitcoiners in this space to go make progress for you on the legislative front.
Some major news is likely to break on Wednesday, maybe Thursday.And I think we're going to be very
Yeah, it's going to be US news.Yeah, because we're starting to hear about, obviously, maybe Qatar, Qatar, Qatar, Qatar, Qatar, Qatar.We all have different bad, depending on where you're in the United States, you pronounce it wrong.
But hearing that they could be buying, we're hearing a lot of rumors of nation state adoption.I think a 90-year-old Saudi Arabian cleric Fatwa saying Bitcoin is kosher, wrong terminology.
But basically, we're seeing a lot of action also in the Middle East.
Yeah, definitely.I mean, I think the news that's going to be breaking this week is I don't think I know I'm working on it specifically with a lawmaker and it's going to be coming out on Wednesday, maybe Thursday at the latest.
And it'll be some pivotal news that will advance what we are working on here in the United States.I think that on top of that, there's definitely going to be some nation state news.I personally am aware of some nation state news, which I can't share.
I was recently in an undisclosed location late last month. and early this month.And I have been working diligently to be able to help move this forward.I think that Bitcoin is certainly something that is going to be winning in the United States.
But I also know that Bitcoin is a global movement.And we need to be making sure that we do everything possible in the political space to ensure that some of these countries, especially those in the global south, really do benefit from the technology.
So major, I think it's just going to be honestly, between now and mid 2025, You're just going to have back to back to back like major news when it comes to government adoption in the United States and also abroad internationally as well.
And I'm actually jumping off here.That's why I wanted to just say a few words, Scott, and appreciate you letting me jump in.
I got to go chat with another lawmaker and another part of the world who is very interested in pushing forward to make sure that his country can adopt Bitcoin as well.
I mean, honestly, I don't know what it was other than just maybe the election, but things have certainly changed. The momentum for our policy work at Satoshi Action has never been more intense.
We're getting constant inbound now from lawmakers, not only in the U.S., but all over the world.
Makes sense.I mean, we got our stamp of approval, right?I mean, there's zero fear of poor legislation, maybe we'll get it, and certainly not of regulators at this point.
When you even have John Reed Stark, who's on this show all the time, is a huge, obviously, crypto skeptic, 20 years or more at the SEC, obviously, doing enforcement action, who effectively thought that crypto was a scam.
When you have him coming out and saying, listen, the people have spoken.The SEC needs to end its crusade against crypto.Gensler needs to resign.
I think he said, you know, up only or to the moon, sort of, or to the moon, I guess, or something like that.But I mean, you know, these are smart people who understand that the environment has changed regardless of their personal feelings.
We have a year and a half here, depending on, I guess, what happens in the next midterm election, where crypto and Bitcoin get to prove their worth in the United States basically unrestricted, right?Absolutely.
Huge stamp of approval.I think a lot of people are looking at it as there's this Trump victory, which certainly is a big stamp of approval.But the even bigger stamp of approval is the fact that Bernie Moreno was able to knock out Sherrod Brown, who
who's the head of Senate banking in Ohio.That was the pivotal race where we were putting all of our chips on the table.We went all in as an industry to see if we could take out one of the most powerful anti-Bitcoin members of Congress.
And we were able to win and win big.That has sent shockwaves through Washington, D.C.People are paying attention.
And they are realizing that you should not stand in the way of Bitcoin and really, honestly, crypto writ large or your entire political career could be at risk.Now, it's one thing to take out a representative.They are elected every two years.
It is entirely a totally different thing for a member of the Senate to be and not only a member of the Senate, a leader in the Senate to become president. completely removed and taken out by a single industry this way.
I haven't seen anything like this in my entire political career, really in my entire life.And so now this is going to encourage lawmakers writ large to understand that, well, hey, if I support this industry, I can get $200 million put into my race.
Not like I'm saying I'm a big fan of big money in politics, but this is the state of the world that we live in.And now they're saying, oh, well, if I support crypto and Bitcoin, I can get $200 million put in my race.
But if I oppose it, I can also have $200 million put in against me.That's a $400 million spread.People in the Senate are smart, and I think they're going to start paying a lot more attention to how they can support this industry.
I love that the real civic will be able to still support it now, right?Whether they like it or not, they have to be politicians and get on board, or else they're going to lose.That's exactly where we want to be positioned.Exactly.
Thanks for letting me chime in, Scott.
I'll talk soon. Alex, then Lawyer, as we had you guys queued up before, and then we'll jump to the others with their hands up.
So yeah, I'll just hit a couple, I guess, high-level points.Number one, definitely agree.Rotate out of Joe Bowden coin back into Bitcoin.That's definitely going to, I think, perform better for you over the next little bit.
I think more generally, though, when I hear a lot of talk about altcoins and what's going to go there, it feels very much like fighting the last war mentality to me.There will always be a substantial altcoin market.
because people are going to be looking for where there is higher, you know, new, higher multiplicative upside on the thing that they're buying into than the established stuff, right?
Even in a like very bulk case scenario, Bitcoin has 10x in it, you know, this cycle, if you think it's going to a million, I think it's probably more in the two to three x range.
But like there are people who are going to want those 20, 30, 40, 50 x asymmetric upsides.And so that there's always going to be people chasing some form of the altcoin thing.
I think we'll still see greater Bitcoin dominance at 50% or higher, but there will be something new.I don't know what the altcoin battle is going to be exactly, but I think there will be something there on it.
And then, yeah, on the political front, I think the one thing that I'm looking at right now is when we actually start getting material announcements here.
I think what Dennis hit on is like definitely true in terms of and actually even more so than like the Moreno race.It's just simply the fact that every single down ballot race where crypto wasn't 54.
50 of 54, 80 of 84, I don't want to misquote it, but it was something like where crypto money went in.It was 100% hit rate until a few of the late decisions were made, but I think there were only four where they lost.
Yeah.It's something like that.It's an absurd 90, 95%. Yeah, and yeah, Fairshake won almost all of them.You know, and I give a huge shout out to the Fairshake team for finding both Democrats and Republicans.
I have obviously talked on this show over and over again how important it is to make crypto a nonpartisan issue, even if it is a political issue.
And the Fairshake team, I think, did a great job finding candidates on both sides of the aisle that they could support.And it just showed like all basically all of their candidates won.
And so I think even more than like, yes, okay, Trump's broker door, whatever, and we'll get a positive.It's that I think anyone who was kind of on the fence about crypto, and was like, maybe I'll oppose it.
It's just like, there's just no upside for them.And it's I don't think it's just because, like, hey, there will be money in the race against me.It's because it really did show that, like, the American people don't care about this as an issue.
They don't care about it as an issue of wanting a ban.They do not want Congress spending their time trying to block crypto or ban it or anything like that.And so I think that that is going to be the fundamentalist. biggest deal here.
I think what we're seeing right now on the price action is it's very speculative.Not that it's not supported by where I think ultimately everything's going.
But I think if we don't start seeing actual announcements of things, then like, you know, I think we'll run at these levels for a little bit, and then it'll drop back down until something does.
But I think if there really are major announcements that come out in the next week or two, especially because just In the crypto world, it has been, you know, not always the case where stuff actually gets backed up by action or reality on it.
But if we see actual major announcements, if we see an actual move where like Gensler steps back or where we get told who's going to be in what roles and it's looking very positive there, then we really are looking at like the moon is the limit situation and very quickly and easily breaking out well over 100 in the next couple of weeks.
I look forward to the time when we backtest the previous all-time high of 74,000 and people are depressed because it's coming.When we've dropped from a level and they can't believe that Bitcoin's back to 75,000.Lawyer, go ahead.Yeah.
I'll just say real quick.I had a friend text me this morning.He texted me on Saturday and said, what should I be buying on crypto?And I gave him a list. He was like, yeah, I guess I missed everything.And then I texted him again this morning.
I'm like, you do know you're not too late now.Like, go, go after it.Coins up $1,000 since we started this show.
Currently $84,300.Lawyer, go ahead.
Yeah, I mean, so my main points already sort of been made, but it's worth repeating, which is that if your favorite bags, your favorite old coin is not hatching a bid right now, just get rid of it and find something that is even if you're waiting for a dip or buying, like, there's no reason that an old coin shouldn't catch a bid right now.
But something else that I've been thinking from a macro level,
is that I think what we should be expecting with the Trump win, like, I don't know if you guys saw that ice guy, the Trump's new ice guy that got on this TV and he was like, fuck your family, you're getting out of here.
Like, I think the new virtue signaling is going to be away from that sort of like suicidal empathy and more towards, you know, excellence at all costs.
And so if you can imagine America where they're no longer balancing that and pushing for excellence, it's great.It's going to look like an Elon world and a lot of companies are going to do very well.But with that virtue signaling,
You may see a lot of, um, anyone who relies on a bailout, anyone who relied on the sort of murky nature of the financial world might be in a lot of trouble.And some of this may sort of bleed into crypto.I don't mean to say that it's disastrous.
It may not be, but I don't, I think, you know, they may let things get destroyed, not necessarily in the name of anything else, but these new sort of shibboleths of, you know, we don't care.Fuck you.Excellent.
So I don't know what that means, but I think it's something to look at.Doug less than Simon.
He's caught.Yeah.I was just going to follow up on your mention about.Oh, can you hear me?Yeah.
I was just saying, I said Douglas then Simon, but you go ahead and Douglas can jump in.Go ahead.Go ahead.Douglas will jump in after you.
I was just going to talk about, you mentioned that it had been classified as kosher while we're speculating on the next country.Kosher is obviously Judaism, but in the Muslim faith being actually classified as halal.
is actually a really big deal, because one of the biggest problems in Islamic finance is that it's built upon a traditional central banking system.
And then the banks that sit underneath it are all fractional reserve, which means that Riba, which is a cardinal sin, is built into the financial system.
So to actually get past the fact that Bitcoin, now that it is acting like a commodity and savings vehicle, because the big objection was around it being a currency for gambling and whether it didn't meet any of those criterias.
But as this starts to be classified more in line with a savings vehicle, a commodities vehicle, that actually solves one of the biggest problems in Islamic finance.
And so if we start to see now a nation state, whether it be Saudi Arabia, whether it be Qatar, whether it be UAE,
who have all made moves, whether it be on the mining side or supporting the ecosystem and industry, none of that is factored into the price.It's a big market for new financial systems to be built upon.
And also, the conflicts that we're starting to finally see where people can see the power struggle between the Fed and Congress and the Trump administration.
I think it's going to be really highlighted because there may be a plan from the Fed to lower rates than hike rates in order to create some kind of sabotage around the Trump administration.
And we started to see those types of tit-for-tats and arguments around who controls the board. know, Jerome Powell coming out and saying you can't change it.Well, there is actually in the Fed bill, there is actually a Bitcoin strategic reserves.
There is actually a bunch of states that are looking at building their strategic reserves and the opportunity to actually start issuing money in a different way to the Federal Reserve System as that argument emerges may lead to some of the real big games.
and the real big differences that Bitcoin can make in the financial system into the future.So I just wanted to put out there that there are much, much bigger things to still think about that aren't factored into the price of Bitcoin yet.Douglas.
Yeah, I had a really great conversation with Samson Mao, who obviously runs Jan 3.And, you know, when we talk about nation states, he seems to be right next to the button.I did this on a podcast, Old Men, New Money, and it's all it's all out there.
But the reality is, you know, everyone's been waiting.Well, certainly the Western states or Western countries have been waiting for the United States to announce the Bitcoin reserve.
And it seems like they're kind of got their finger on the buy button. waiting for, or over the buy button, waiting for the United States to announce that.
And what we're seeing right now is possibly front running of the US announcing that, and that's why you see the large gap up moves over this weekend, is that there are some nation states that are actually getting involved now, but they're not announcing it.
Because as soon as you announce it, the price is going to go against you. And so I think that who writes the biggest tickets?
Well, it's nation states, and it's exciting for individuals to buy it, and it's exciting for MicroStrategy to buy, and maybe even Microsoft after the vote.But is Apple going to buy?Is Berkshire going to buy?
But certainly there seems to be a lot of excitement on the nation state level, and Samson had some really good comments on it.I'm definitely putting Berkshire Hathaway in my fleet.
High rating of probably not happy.If that happens, maybe I sell everything, actually, because that could be the ultimate top signal, is when Warren Buffett and Peter Schiff have lunch together and both decide to buy Bitcoin.
That'll be maybe the dead top.Go ahead, Dave, then Tom.
Yeah, I think that if you look at it from a trading perspective, putting it on your balance sheet, it's literally the opposite, I think, of, well, I'm not sure if this is what you meant, but I think it's the opposite, i.e., you buy it first, then you announce it, and then it goes up, so it goes in your favor.
But if you announce it before you're done, the price runs away from you, and it's much more expensive.And that's the kind of game theory that's going on here.
The the Simon mentioned something that is absolutely important that you know Scott mentioned on our show this morning That you're seeing fat was written talking about Bitcoin from influential Muslim clerics that matters throughout Middle East money and when you consider
Everything that's gone on, understand that the origin and the reason the dollar is where it is today is because of petrodollars, so to not understand how important that could be is a big deal.
Now, if you're in the US administration, on the other hand, they obviously can't do anything until they get into power, but the notion of buying Bitcoin becomes a very interesting trade.
Because, you know, as soon as they do it and people know they're doing it, the price goes ridiculous.And it's really important to contextualize this move for Bitcoin.
It still is, although the Bitcoin gold ratio, you know, we talked about this morning, I mean, my expectation is that this cycle's move might not be over until Bitcoin is substantially
Higher meaning that it starts to at least getting to half of gold's value a quarter of gold's value right now It's not even close.
And so Understanding and contextualizing that is is a very big deal now as far as all coins are concerned what you have is people taking profits from Bitcoin and plowing them in looking for that 50x and I don't want to go all Max Keiser saying that everything should go to zero against Bitcoin because I don't believe that but I do believe that
that it's important not to take it for granted that something that's a $10 billion asset because it always has been will all of a sudden stay.Under this new administration, what will end up happening is the wheat will get separated from the chaff.
You will see real economic value being able to be passed on to token holders, and that has some very major implications.
Mostly good, but there are some coins out there and some token projects structured where token holders literally are just bag holders.
They literally get nothing, and I think those are going to start trending downwards over the next three or four years.In the short run, yeah, they're gonna go up just like everything else is going up.It's force of nature and liquidity that trumps it.
But understand that the sea change that's happened is a
legitimization of the entire crypto ecosystem, the good parts of it, and people who want to restrain some of those features of the system that nobody in this space particularly cares about or wants to have happen.
So we can pontificate about nation state adoption, but I think really simply everyone has been caught off sides besides some of us in this room here.And you can see it very clearly in just look at the Coinbase price today up 17%.
Look at the emails we've seen from traditional allocators and RAs to their clients that were putting in 1% to 3% position of Bitcoin in your your allocation on Monday if you don't respond to us.
There's just a huge appetite when price or narrative follows price.And we're seeing that immediately on Bitcoin.Particularly on ETH though, you've seen this kind of rotation back in ETH, which is really interesting.
And it's primarily because ETH was the short leg of a ton of trades. looking at like open interest data, futures data, a lot of stuff that you would say, or people trying to put on an ETH trade and get some more leverage.
Open interest on ETH is actually higher now than it was when ETH was at 3.9K early this year.So the grab for upside on ETH is enormous.And you also finally have some positive ETF inflows there.
So I think altcoins, Bitcoin's going to do fantastic, but you're going to see the majors do really, really well as well, particularly ETH tries to get this cash flow.
Someone offered me a bet recently, I think Joe Nakamoto on Twitter, and I actually DM'd him.I just don't think he's seen it, but it's a bet I would take.I think ETH was at basically 0.036, 0.037 versus Bitcoin.
And it was basically equal money for a single Bitcoin that ETH would outperform for the cycle.So the hard part was the nuance of defining what the cycle was.
And of course, I don't want to make that trade publicly because then people think I'm not a Bitcoiner and they're going to sacrifice me to the the shitcoin gods or whatever.
But if I'm putting my money on something for the next six to nine months, maybe even a year, and then rotating that into Bitcoin to the point of the max size or everything going to zero, I would take the ETH outperforming from that level trade over the next year.
And I think it's not even close.But I've been early on ETH in that regard anyway.I mean, Tom, what would you think of a trade from that, say, one year from now till November 11th?
I think it's actually pretty tough.I do think he thought the phones, just because it's been so your mic is really muscle.I don't know.
Now, I can't hear you at all.Joe, would you take that trade while he fixes the mic?Sorry, Scott, what was the question? Basically, a year from now, whether the ETH-Bitcoin ratio will be higher or lower.
Whether ETH will perform, because we call it six months.I actually would take it on six months is what I wanted, going before next summer.But which one do you think will outperform from here, from 0.036?It's so tough.
If you say two years, I'm all Bitcoin, no question.Yeah.The way I think about Ethereum is all of the different Layer two is in different chains that are constantly, you know, re-interacting with Ethereum.
You know, if you go to base, you know, you go to Polygon, you go to another chain, like you, you do tend to kind of find your way back to eat a lot of times, you know, depending on the activity that you're, you're trying to transact.
And, you know, it's, it's, there's still so much value there.This latest move here, like if this move wasn't so, um,
obvious that just happened you know i would say you know i'm kind of on onto bitcoin but i mean i like in a weird way the market looks at market cap as like what is like what can grow and what is like the worst here and.
If Bitcoin's truly a $5 to $10 trillion asset, where does that put Ethereum?It's just a numbers game when it comes to the percentages can move higher.Bitcoin, ultimately, there's just a cap that things could grow into.
It's the same reason that people kind of chase memes and everything else.And at a certain level, I think Ethereum could potentially outperform just because there's that mentality in the market of like, oh, the market cap's only $388 billion.
Or not $390.Sorry, it just popped.But it could move up more.
Yeah. Sorry, just getting myself in order here.Dave, you haven't really commented as of yet.I would actually be curious as to your thoughts on that.
I know you lean heavier to Bitcoin, but from here, do you think ETH or Bitcoin outperform in the next six months?
I hate six.Look, I'm a long-term, I think Bitcoin- 10 years.Can you not hear me?
No, I was kidding.I said 10 years as a joke, but yes, we both agree which one wins in 10 years.Yeah.
The ETH narrative is gonna play out based upon something that we had originally thought, which is lots of ETF salespeople that it's clearly a commodity and it has an advantage.
ETH lost that advantage over Solana and all the other layer ones with Trump victory.I mean, yeah, they have it for a little bit of time, but it's a wasting asset because frankly, every one of these assets is gonna become investable.
Therefore, the investability aspect of ETH is definitely lower.
Now, that said, ETH has a huge advantage in a Trump administration, which is that the large financial players, the Franklin Templetons of the world, the Fidelities of the world, have all announced projects based upon ETH.
So the demand for ETH will go up.So you have those two cross currents.I guess I come down on really trying to understand where the real demand driver's gonna come in.
And I think that the excitement over that will probably cause a short-term rally in ETH, and that the sellers, that the supply just isn't there.
So I think you could have a short-term outperformance, but in the long run, I think it equalizes as projects move to other chains that gain their investability over time.
Yeah.To be clear, I was treating the bet strictly as a trade with a very clear point that I'd want to get back into Bitcoin at some point.
Yeah.The only thing about Bitcoin and why, first of all, the downside to Bitcoin is dramatically lower.I think that it's a reach-to-escape velocity and do not under I'm sorry, Dana.Yeah.Talk me off.
I don't underestimate Dennis's work on getting states and and sovereigns into Bitcoin.Those every time that happens, that's like another stair step up.
That is is literally just a shift in demand curve, meaning that it means higher highs also means higher lows. I don't see any of that on Ethereum.And that is the one thing to keep in mind.So it really depends on your macro worldview.
If you think we are in a bull market for the next six months, then I think you're right.If you think that there are going to be interesting cross-currents that are going on, then you may be wrong.
So it's really, there are probably ways to structure derivatives around that that are fascinating.I don't want to jump into it, but I do think that those are the considerations one has to have.
Robbie, then Simon. Sorry to interrupt.If you are talking, can you guys hear Robbie?Cause I cannot, but if you can.Okay.Yeah.Robbie, I think something's going on with your mic.
So maybe I'll bring you, I'll knock you off and bring you back, bring you back up, close your app entirely and come back on.That's the best way to try to fix the glitch.Go ahead, Simon.
Yeah no I do think that there is going to be a story for Ethereum.I think Solana is too centralized to Silicon Valley to connected to all this downtime.Now let's rely upon the developers to fix it.
And I think Bitcoin is not at this stage going to be the chain that they're going to try and build or tokenization on.
So I do think as we get more and more strategic reserves, as we get more and more people that are in the Bitcoin story, I think there is going to be a big traditional finance play for tokenization.Now, they're either going to do it in two ways.
They're going to try and do their own distributed ledger technology and control the ecosystem. or they're going to do it most likely upon Ethereum.
And I think the play is that they're waiting for the custodian to be Bank of New York Mellon for the ETFs.And then they can take a lot of the volume away from Coinbase.They can get more and more in the ETF.
And then they approve staking into the Trump administration, which will then give them you know not full control where they say this is our own chain.This is a decentralized chain but we control the stakes.
And now we're going to build our tokenized exchange and all of our tokenized real world assets and our tokenized bank deposits.So I still think that Ethereum is in front run to take all of that volume as a play.
I don't think it's ever going to be a strategic reserve asset.I think it's all about control of the next financial system and the next wave of financial products.
I agree.Robbie, I'm trying to add you again, and I'm getting an error, so I don't really know what's going on with the utter glitchiness today.Dan, since we've got you here, we've obviously talked a bit about the election with you already.
Anything changing in the last week?I mean, it seems like for as far as price, we've got a lot of momentum.
Yeah.Hey, thanks for having me on, guys.A couple of things.This week's going to be interesting.Day after tomorrow, We have the Senate Majority Leader race, which Twitter's looking at right now, obviously the overwhelming amount of our industry.
Dan, you're breaking up as well.Is there any way you can step to somewhere with a better signal?You guys are hearing that too, right?Rough morning for X. Yeah, I think it might be his phone.
But Dan, if you can step somewhere with a better signal, Wi-Fi.
Yeah, I can, I can, you guys can hear me?
Okay.I was going to say right now for the Senate majority reader race, Rick Scott, John Thune, Cornyn, whoever wins, it's going to be good for crypto.All three of them actually are overwhelmingly supportive of our industry.They got an A rating.
So, I mean, we're going to see how this shakes out, but keep your eye on that.That's on Wednesday. And then the other big event this week is that Cantor Fitzgerald Conference.It's this Wednesday and Thursday, November 13th, 14th in Miami.
That'll be very, very interesting to see.Quite a few players are speaking at that event.I think there's going to be something coming out of it.Keep your eye on that one too, at least for the market.
That makes sense.What do you think, Cantor Fitzgerald?
And then the conversation will be, obviously, for those who don't know, Howard Lutnick, who is the CEO of Kenner Fitzgerald, who famously kind of set out and said, listen, I believe in Tether, we back them.He really put that butt to bed.
But he's now one of the heads of Trump's transition teams, will be fundamentally involved in the government and is very, very pro-Bitcoin and the head of a huge institution, pro-crypto I should say.
Oh, yeah, that's exactly where I was going with this.I mean, let's say he's got an enormous amount of influence on the transition team right now.Whether he himself goes in or not remains to be seen, but he will be there.
He's going to be providing a lot of opinion.We got a sailor is going to be keynoting the lunch.A lot of big names are going to be speaking.
It's very Bitcoin heavy, but the infrastructure side and I think the strategic reserve concept is going to be part of the conversation.So we'll be covering that.
And I think it'll be something just to keep your eye on this week that and then the Senate majority leader race. I think it's going to be pretty consequential for the market.
Yeah.So exciting.You kind of summarized it, but of those Senate majority candidates, is there one that would be a clear victory over others?
Oh, well, yeah, I was saying Rick Scott overwhelmingly has the support of the Bitcoiners, the crypto community.But again, all three of them are very, very supportive of our industry.They have an A rating.Corning out of Texas, Thune out of Dakota.
I have no sense on how it's going to pull it off.I mean, everybody wants Rick Scott, but the secret ballot really protects a lot of these.It protects everybody's identity and how they vote. So he seems to have most of the MAGA community backing.
I'd be happy with any, all three of them would be fine.But Rick Scott, certainly I think seems to have the support of most Bitcoiners.
No death to remember when Rick Scott presided over the largest health care fraud settlement in United States history.But hey, it's politics, right?
And was the least popular government governor in the history of Florida with a 26 percent approval rating.I live in Florida.
I remember, for those who don't know, he was the CEO of Columbia, HCA, and they defrauded Medicare and Medicaid, had 14 felony convictions and were fined one point seven billion dollars.And then he became governor and senator. Welcome to America.
Nobody even remembers.But yeah, that's all right.That's the guy we're supporting, I guess, as the as the leader here.
Well, you know, it depends.Again, Texas Cornyn, he's a rock solid conservative, too.And he's he's always been supportive of Bitcoin in Texas.So, again, I'd be happy with any one of them.
But I know it's become very, very opinionated on Twitter, crypto Twitter.I'm staying out of it.But we're going to we're going to definitely know Wednesday at lunch.
Yeah, listen, I mean, we know that the environment in general has just improved massively for the space.
So I think there's just a lot of nuance as to who might be the leader, but it probably doesn't matter that much when everyone is so sort of overtly pro-Bitcoin, or at least that's what I'm hoping.Dan, there's been this sort of like sentiment that
Basically, we have a year and a half.Obviously, midterms tend to swing back the other way.I know people will eviscerate me and say, how dare you think that the Democrats could ever win anything again in history?
But history generally shows that you get your year and a half to two years to sort of legislate on your own.And then there's some pushback because people come back out to vote.
And so do you think that we basically have carte blanche for this industry to prove itself and try almost anything in the next sort of two years?Is that is that a correct sentiment?I mean, it seems like nothing in the world.
If we're going to get something done, we've got to do it in the first two years.And honestly, the first 100 days would be great to come out strong and getting some of this legislation done.
I mean, maybe even the lamb duck, but definitely the first 100 days are going to be absolutely critical for market structure, for stablecoin legislation, and then for these Senate confirmation rolls, like the confirmation of the SEC chairman, confirmation of the CFTC chairman.
So the first You know, 100 days are going to be absolutely paramount.I'm not convinced the midterms are going to be as bad for Republicans on the Senate side, considering how good we did this last week.
It picked up a lot more seats than I think some folks expected.So there's a cushion there.But 2026 won't be a good year overall for Republicans.
But I think that they still should be able to hold the majority, even if it's by a whisker in 2026, based off the races I'm looking at.House is a different story.But yeah, again, the first two years,
you know, especially when it's a trifecta like this with any party, the president has the most opportunity to get things done.
Rob, are you back up?Are you working?Can we try? can't hear Robbie.Rough day for the glitches here- I'm kind of reading through the- news stories here- and there are some that I had not reviewed that are catching my attention here.
According to Bloomberg FTX has filed a lawsuit against Binance as former CEO.Stevie seeking to recover approximately one point eight billion in funds.
FTX alleges that the funds were fraudulently transferred to SPF in July twenty twenty one Binance and Stevie obtained the funds by selling part of their shares in FTX. and the U.S.division approximately 20% and 18.4%.Wow.
And then the other one that just caught my eye, because I hadn't actually seen the story, I just somewhat heard the rumors about Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
But David Bailey, who's often on the show, obviously, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, one of Trump's campaign crypto aides, said that at least one country has been actively buying Bitcoin and is now a top five holder.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia may be the unnamed countries Bailey is referring to, while he said it was not China, Ukraine,
the United Kingdom, Finland, or Georgia, which seemed like just he threw darts at five countries to see which ones it definitely was not.But it seems like this is really happening here, right?I mean, Simon, maybe you're the best to talk to this.
We kind of spoke about it earlier, but I mean, it would not surprise me now to see five, 10 countries making announcements in the next six months.
Yeah, this is geopolitical game theory.You know, we we manifested this into existence.So let's not forget and credit to the community, which I think we've always done at Bitcoin.
We've been given this technology and, you know, really leading up to Bitcoin 2024.And I think it's right to talk about David Bailey because it is his conference.And and he did manifest that.
And, you know, Dennis Porter's work and everyone in the community. So I do think this whole strategic reserve asset was something that we said was going to exist.We played into the needs of the U.S.election.
And then they realized that actually, yes, this is a strategic block.And it worked from, I do believe, to some degree, started his
his allegiance with our industry, Bitcoin 2024, and then just became the clear winner in terms of pro-innovation and deregulation.And so I think this is a great example of how the Bitcoin community used that.
And that set in a chain of events when Michael Saylor presented the opportunity, which clearly he was presenting to either America or Saudi Arabia or Qatar, saying front run this.
They were probably already working on it, but the vision was set, and El Salvador set the model.And so we've created that environment.Now, there is no way that you cannot be involved in Bitcoin as a country if you are paying attention right now.
And the asymmetric bet that we all bet upon is there. which is that the upside is tremendous, and you don't necessarily have to have a massive position in this game.And that is the same for every country.
It would be completely irresponsible for any country not to protect themselves by being what might become a very strategic reserve asset for all countries and central banks.And the most important thing is actually doing it as treasury.
This is the bit that most people may not understand.By governments acquiring it, many people like America have an independent central banking system, which is privately controlled, and then a government.
And sometimes into the future, those two interests do not align in any way, and especially as national debt increases.So the ability for these governments to actually have a tool
where they can make themselves independent from a central bank that's a member of the Bank for International Settlements, they actually get the opportunity to radically reform their monetary system.
And if we end up in some kind of Black Swan war event, You know, these strategic reserves, I think, are a national security thing.So it's very, very irresponsible for a country not building a strategic Bitcoin reserve.It's an obvious one.
And I think that they're all racing to do it.
What a world.I mean, absolutely crazy that this is actually where we are in 2024.And I do think that we're also going to see more companies.Do you think that Microsoft obviously has their vote soon on whether to buy or add Bitcoin?
Do you think or does anyone think that the election could possibly actually sway that in the right direction?Because I think there's been consensus that there's no way that actually happens, but it's a great news story.
Does anybody have thoughts on that?
I think the question is, I haven't looked at the shareholder table.I know BlackRock's up there, and Fidelity's there, but if Berkshire Hathaway there, I think this is a really political question.
I mean, does the small investor have any real say in this, or is it just net, or is it a game of take the top five investors, top 10 investors, and what's their opinion, which will determine whether it happens or not?
I don't know if anyone's looked at all the shareholders.
Yeah, I think that, you know, if the stories of Bill Gates reaching out to try to, you know, make nice with Trump, you know, I know Obama is thinking, but I mean, honestly, you know, that's really the question.
It feels like a tremendous long shot from a Microsoft perspective, although to be blunt, I think it would be it would be probably the right move.
And I'm pretty sure that the that the board vote is to study it, not to actually adopt it immediately, in which case I actually I think that it would be
It's definitely a good move to study it, but you know would be a bigger deal the far more likely scenario is Companies who have cash balances that are in industries that throw off cash Where they have a question of putting it on their balance sheet or buying back stock to goose their stock price I mean the success of micro strategy is not being in a going to be ignored and I think that you'll see more and more of those and that's going to be like a snowball rolling down a hill and
Before it gets to the apples and the Microsoft's, you know, the the mega the absolute mega caps of the world I mean I could be wrong.I mean God knows that a mega cap did it then?
That's that's a very big deal, but I'm sorry should be the leader, right?
I mean Tim Cook is a Bitcoin over.
We know that yeah, I right and a lot of companies are like look, you know, a lot of companies are like well, you know, I shouldn't let my personal opinions get into Treasury, but
Bitcoin to the downside has been de-risked substantively, and the upside where, you know, look, I think that my call for 240 this cycle may be too conservative if some of these things happen, and that's the kind of thing that could get animal spirits moving.
But right now, We're at 85,000 and there really isn't that much in the way of animal spirits.
I know that seems crazy, but it's true I mean, this is like substantive buying and you know, we talked about why that is this morning So, you know, we haven't gotten to the animal spirits phase.
I'm not sure when we'll get there maybe 75 cents windows at 75 cents Well, Doge is hitting 32 cents as we speak or very, very close to it.It's certainly moving.I mean, it's a crazy thing to think of.
But you think of what we've listed, everything Simon said is accurate in terms of company about game theory. The last thing you want to be in game theory is the last to a party.There are a lot of people, and that's where FOMO comes in.
FOMO for individual investors is one thing.FOMO for nation states or corporate treasuries is a completely different kettle of fish.To me, it's a very—this asymmetric bet can't last forever. Right.
And when we talk about it, we're talking about, you know, a 10x from here, you know, at a minimum to be, you know, considered a global reserve asset rivaling gold.
So that's an asymmetric bet that that that is very hard to ignore for people who are doing treasury management because it has a signaling aspect of it.Never forget Long Island, you know, Long Island block chain from Long Island ISD and what that did.
And this is this has much more staying power, in my opinion.Jeff Tao.
What's up, man?I was just going to comment on the long shot on Microsoft.
I don't think, even though they can vote as they wish, the large asset managers, they have too much fiduciary obligation to their intern shareholders through whatever ETFs they have, whatever other financial products they've sold.
that include Microsoft stock, and I think it would be hard for them to go out there and say, you know, go out on a limb and vote for the initiative.Interesting, if any of the shareholder advisory firms would say something
cavalier about this proposal, like ISS, go ahead and support the investment in Bitcoin.But my guess is that the risk reward on this one is just not there for them.If you want Bitcoin, go ahead and invest in Bitcoin.
Don't invest in Microsoft because it is a Bitcoin holding a holder.And I just it's a great event that is happening.It is coming from a from a party that is not necessarily part of the mainstream.
So, you know, like everything else, it'll start at the fringe.Eventually, it'll make its way, you know, to more, you know, acceptable and more, you know, powerful Shareholders and shareholder-related groups.
I just don't think this is the point of win for Bitcoin making its way onto corporate balance sheets.Simon, you disagree?
No, I just wanted to, you know, I'm not sure.I think you'd, yeah, we'll see where that one goes.I think that was all useful information.
But one thing I did want to point out and just observe that is happening just on the spaces side is obviously, you know, David hosts the TradFi traditional finance space in the morning, which I come to when I can as well.
But more and more of the TradFi conversation seems to be consumed by Bitcoin and crypto.And more and more of the TradFi people seem to be joining these spaces as well.
So we seem to really be hitting this emergence where the crypto, what was a fringe space or the Bitcoin space, is suddenly intersecting a lot more with traditional finance.
And at some point, it just seems like it's all going to be one thing and an asset class.It's just an observation from the journey that we've all been together, just covering these spaces.
Yeah, I think we're there as far as it being an asset class.If there was any doubt, I think now that we've had this election, it's very clear.
But I mean, it's been four or five years now that I think Bitcoin and Ethereum have been tickers on CNBC and Fox Business and have been a part of almost every show. So, I absolutely think you're right.Go ahead, Dave.
Yeah, there's one point that I made this morning that I think is on your show, Scott, that the SEC and FINRA have blocked all the thousands of broker-dealers in the country from offering crypto trading services through their broker-dealers.
The technical term with that would be non-securities trading, just like they offer futures. So none of those broker-dealers have been able to do it.
Robinhood went to the extraordinary lengths of creating a completely separate subsidiary that was an affiliate that had nothing to do with the broker-dealer, but that's a very expensive proposition for every mid-tier broker-dealer out there because of compliance and lots of other reasons.
That policy is almost certain to end in January.
And that basically means that you have the real sales forces and you have the gear up to be able to offer these training services the entire broker dealer network so when you talk about trying to get into crypto that turbo charges and i can tell you.
I can't, you know, a bunch of them were, you know, were under NDA or conferences.
There are lots of firms, on the buy side as well, even on the hedge fund community as well, that have been waiting for that in order to, you know, commit to crypto as a legitimate asset class.
So, it is a, this is a very big deal that extends beyond Bitcoin, and that hasn't even happened yet, because that can't happen until FINRA changes their policies.
Scott, you got to remember too, the banks can't hold Bitcoin without it being a liability still.I mean, we're sitting at such a... The NY Mellon can.Right.
But what happens when the larger banks can do that or a lot of these regional banks and someone could just like Anzal, move a little bit of money around, they can just move money from their checking
you know, from checking to Bitcoin by $50, you know, a week, and that stuff starts to hit like actual checking account apps is pretty, pretty interesting.And then, you know, a little bit, like more of a darker scenarios, these boomers are aging out.
Right.And, you know, when the millennial generation gets in, and they are the potential CFO of regional bank XYZ, like, they're not going to dip their toes in a dogecoin to These are the assets that these kids grew up on.
I just think that that future also is incredibly bright.I think we're just very lucky, even in 2024, to be sitting where we are today.
The shift that's going to happen over the next couple of years, I think a lot of us weren't counting on this shifting maybe for another decade.It's moving way quicker than I think a lot of us thought.
Amazing.Well, guys, unfortunately, I could talk all day, but I got to wrap.It's been an hour.We're here at 11.15 a.m.We'll be back, obviously, tomorrow morning at 10.15 a.m.Eastern Standard Time.
Bitcoin, by the way, started, I think, to show at 83,300.It's about to hit 85,000.Absolutely flying at the moment.We're at 84,860 and rising.We will see you guys tomorrow.Thanks so much to all of our guests, everybody in the audience.
Follow them because they're amazing.And we'll see probably most of you tomorrow.Later.
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