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Kamala Harris closed last night with a rally with 75,000 supporters in our nation's capital.Meanwhile, Trump went to Madison Square Garden over the weekend and caused a lot of trouble for himself.
He also went on Rogan and spoke to at least 35 million people. And then we got a lot of polls.We got a lot of early vote.
We're going to break it all down here on Majority 54, the podcast for the 54 percent of Americans who regularly vote for progress every election and want to convince their friends and family members to join our majority.This is Majority 54.
And listeners, our good friend Jason Kander has preemptively fled the country, claiming asylum, preparing ahead for Tuesday.
And in his place, we have Steven Weber, Marine veteran, candidate for office in Missouri, labor organizer, fan of the second best team in football.Steven, welcome back.
Thanks for having me, Ravi.I appreciate it.
How are you feeling about this election?
Well, it's strange because I'm I'm up on the ballot this this year as well.So I'm running for the state Senate here in Missouri.So in six days, I'm going to find out whether I've won a state Senate seat or not.So I'm just looking.It looks good.
It looks good.I feel good.So I'm torn between worrying about my own stuff, but also this sort of like overarching dread of the presidential race and what's going to happen around the country.
So I'm split between being optimistic about my my things and then being worried about my friends who are on the ballot at other places worried about our country.And it's a tumultuous time for all of us.
Well, Kamala Harris, our vice president, is closing strong.She came up with an ad one hour ago with her closing message to the American electorate.Let's go to this clip.
Nearly 250 years ago, America was born when we wrested freedom from a petty tyrant.
Across the generations, Americans have preserved that freedom, expanded it, and in so doing, proved to the world that a government of, by, and for the people is strong and can endure.
And those who came before us, they did not struggle, sacrifice, and lay down their lives only to see us cede our fundamental freedoms to the will of another petty tyrant.
America, in seven days, we have the power to turn the page and start writing the next chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told.
Six days, Steven.What'd you think of her decision to do a rally in the Capitol and not in a swing state?
So I think that obviously if you're listening to this podcast, you're pretty political.And I'm sure there's a variety of different political experiences, but you know, everything has a different goal and you spend a lot of time persuasion.
You spend a lot of time reaching undecided voters or swing voters.You also have to spend time turning out voters and turning out people that are going to vote for you. and creating enthusiasm.And I think it showed just massive enthusiasm.
I mean, the photos were overwhelming.I mean, that ad gave me chills just listening to it.And I don't know if it's necessarily specifically targeted at the person in Michigan who goes back and forth and isn't sure how they're going to vote.
But I think it's about driving out people who do support her.And as the name of the show is, Majority 54.The majority of people are not going to support Donald Trump. We have to turn the majority out to make sure we win.
And I think that a lot of what she's doing right now in this phase of the campaign is going to be focused on that.
Yeah, and basically what she's trying to do is get attention.
Every rally speech she gives in a swing state, although it's good for the people in that swing state, often the news and social media, et cetera, are not clipping the same stump speech over and over again.
So the question is, how do you switch up the stump speech?How do you switch up the message in a way that still drives home the core narrative while also getting attention?
Obviously, this is why Trump is doing some of the crazy stuff that he's doing, like the McDonald's stunt. is that he is doing everything he can possible to get in front of as many people as possible.
And we'll get to his strategy in a second, but let's listen to a little bit about what Harris had to say at the Capitol last night.
to those who will be impacted by the decisions I make, and to people who disagree with me.Unlike Donald Trump, I don't believe people who disagree with me are the enemy.He wants to put them in jail.I'll give them a seat at the table.
I pledge to you to approach my work with the joy and optimism that comes from making a difference in people's lives.And I pledge to be a president for all Americans.And to always put country above party and self.
So she's trying to close by saying, look, I'm not here to focus on my petty grievances, to focus on the past, and I'm actually going to be welcoming even if you don't decide to vote for me.
This was made slightly more difficult with whatever Biden said yesterday around the garbage and kind of turning around Trump's phrase about his supporters, which he explained, Biden explained, slash clarified, slash apologized for afterwards.
That obviously wasn't like the best for Harris. I also think it's an insane double standard, like by like whatever Biden said pales in comparison to what Trump says every single day.
Yet there are like a thousand articles written about Biden's comment. Meanwhile, Trump has called the country a garbage can repeatedly in the past week and has said he wants to use the military against his political enemies.
I saw on Twitter 20 minutes ago, and maybe I'm not sure when the clip was from, but him saying that people who are don't support him are horrible people.Right.And saying you're not supposed to say that, but but they really are.
And you can't work with people like that.He said that.
It's crazy.The media is covering this like it's some kind of major moment.And I'm like, spear me the crocodile tears.This is like sports flopping.You know, it's like all these Trump supporters are like clutching their pearls right now.
So my gut reaction watching that clip was just how well Kamala has stepped up to the challenge. I mean, she's the vice president of the United States.She's a professional, that's a huge job.
But even vice president of the United States is not being the president.It's not being the candidate for president.
And to have the responsibility that was thrust upon her this summer, she has stepped up and she has really, I mean, as somebody who's, I don't know her well, but watched her in the primary in 2020,
Um, you know, watch her when she sent her from California and she has really stepped up to the challenge and filled the role that, that we've asked her to fill.Um, and that's, that's pretty, that's been pretty cool to watch in the last few months.
Yeah.Let me see if I could find this.Uh, there's a list that the bulwark put out.Um, here it is.Uh, this is from Jonathan van last, uh, this is, this is just a list of the accomplishments. from Kamala Harris in the campaign since she jumped in.
She unified the Democratic Party.
She reversed Biden's polling deficit and took a lead over Trump, organized a successful convention, created a policy framework for her prospective administration, pivoted to the center on nearly every issue from domestic energy production to gun reform to immigration.
and this is their words, absolutely schlonged Trump in their debate, performed somewhere between adequately and exceptionally in every single media interview, spent time with several non-traditional media outlets, gave all those unfailingly good speeches in front of giant crowds, perform heroic levels of outreach to Republicans and swing voters by appearing on Fox News and campaigning with the likes of Liz Cheney, while explicitly inviting and welcoming Republicans into our coalition.
It's a pretty good list. Yeah, and one of the things we were talking about doing a rally outside of swing state, look, winning the presidential, her job is to win the presidential race.That's her mission.
That is like 90% of the ballgame on next Tuesday is who wins the White House.
But as somebody who is on the ballot myself, somebody, and in the race I'm running for, for those who wouldn't know, I'm trying to flip a seat that Republicans have had for 16 years in mid-Missouri.And so it's not a gimme, it's not a layup.
It's a tough race and there's tough races all across the country.And for people like me, for congressional candidates, for US Senate candidates, having the top of the ticket do well and turn out voters is incredibly important.
So her focus is and needs to be on winning her campaign.
But there's a whole bunch of us across the country who are candidates, who are working on campaigns, who are grateful for the rising tide that she's provided and restoring the enthusiasm, closing the enthusiasm gap, driving turnout.
I'm in a really good position because she's increased the enthusiasm and she's driving voters.And so that's not her main goal, but that's something that's worth acknowledging too.
Yeah, she has this line that she keeps repeating over the past week that at this point, it's not you know, this is not a flip it and remark.This is, I think, the line that she wants voters to have in her head when they're going to the ballot box.
Let's go to another clip from this rally.
So look, in less than 90 days, either Donald Trump or I will be in the Oval Office.On day one, On day one, if elected, Donald Trump would walk into that office with an enemies list.When elected, I will walk in with a to-do list.
full of priorities of what I will get done for the American people.And I will work with everyone, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, to help Americans who are working hard and still struggling to get ahead.
I have been honored to serve as Joe Biden's Vice President But I will bring my own experiences and ideas to the Oval Office.My presidency will be different because the challenges we face are different.
Our top priority as a nation four years ago was to end the pandemic and rescue the economy.Now, our biggest challenge is to lower costs, costs that were rising even before the pandemic and that are still too high.
I like this to-do list versus the enemies list.I've heard her say this a few times now.I would say the contrast with Biden, just from having looked at a lot of this data and seen a lot of these focus groups, the voters want more from her on this.
They want a sharper statement about how she's different.I understand why she doesn't want to go there.She's currently his vice president, and I think out of respect, she doesn't want to She doesn't want to get any sharper on that.
But I do think the voters want to hear that, at least the swing voters.
Yeah, and this is where you get down into the granular detail that unless you're, I guess, in the boiler room of the campaign, you know, like, do they have polling that shows that there's, you know, Joe Biden's from, you know, he was referred to as the third senator from Pennsylvania for decades.
And that's one of those things where you might have polling that shows that, you know, across the country, swing voters want this, but in Northeastern Pennsylvania, they love Joe Biden and any, you know, and they're at a point where they're fighting over literally
vote by vote, hundreds of votes by hundreds of votes in Pennsylvania.And so I've gone back and forth with some friends on that too, but a lot of friends were like, she needs to draw a sharper contrast.
And I'm wondering how much of that is really hyper targeted to very specific communities and mostly in Pennsylvania and maybe, you know, Michigan or something like that.
Yeah, here's what, Here's what I would like to see, and she still has time, and I think there's some venues where this could really work for the final stage of this campaign.
She could do it in a respectful way, and she has done it in a respectful way, it's just not a memorable way.
I think the clip she did, she said, I'm in my presidency, we're different because I have my own experiences, and I think that was kind of a respect, that was sort of a distancing.
But, you know, you got to assume that most people are going to digest that not doing whatever comes after that, right?Like she's going to have the distillation of like, OK, what are my experiences?What are my my plans, et cetera?
I've heard her get this question multiple times, most famously on The View. which I think people view as like one of the down moments of the since she jumped into the race where she really couldn't name anything where she would deviate from Biden.
Let's let's pretend she goes on the Rogan show, which we'll talk about in a second when she gets asked this.What I would do in her position, and I suspect they may.Is have her say, look, the first part of what she said, which is
You know, like I am proud to have served, but it will be different.
And then get really like, you know, a couple of lines about what's different, you know, like just make it real for people, you know, and, you know, slip in something there to be like being vice president and president are not the same things, which she has said at various points, but I think she really needs to hammer that home.
and be like, look, I have been the vice president.That is a different role than president.As president, there are a whole bunch of things that I haven't done because it's not my role as vice president.Here are a few of them.And go out there.
And I think the other question that you see voters wanting an answer from her is why she's changed her position on things.Now, I think this is overblown a bit, but I think it's an opportunity for, because, you know,
Trump has five positions on Obamacare in one sentence, or abortion, right?But people are holding her to a different standard, and in one week we can't change that, right?So she's got to clear that bar.
So what is the question she's got to answer there is, well, okay, she says, I haven't changed, my values haven't changed, right? Just another couple of sentences would be like, what?What has happened?Well, I've been vice president.
I've seen more of this country.I went from representing California, which is a great place, but has its own unique experiences and challenges to now representing a vast swath of the country.And what I learned
is I did what you'd want me to do, which is learn more about the country.I learned about the challenges of people in Pennsylvania and why they support fracking or whatever.And here's what my values are one more time.
Let me say clearly what they are, which she does.She sprinkles it here and there, but this is where a couple of really sharp answers on the few remaining questions that the voters have, I think seals this deal.
Yeah, and that's a really good point.There's a difference between having five different positions in one answer or one night and evolving on specific things over a period of four years when you have new information and new experiences.
And that is what we want.We do want people to change and grow and learn.
We don't want people to just flip-flop from day to day, but if you can show the thoughtful progression of, you know, I wasn't exposed to this and then I have been in, you know, over the last few years, I think that people will be forgiving of that and it makes a lot of sense.
Yeah.You know, Vance was saying they were trying to protect Obamacare and that they saved Obamacare when they tried to kill it like 40 times.
And Mike Johnson, I think today or yesterday, said that that's going to be a main priority when Trump if Trump wins.
It's like but obviously, like, again, we can't like we you and I can push the narrative about fairness and balance and using the same yardstick to measure both candidates.
But she's got to just work with whatever the crazy dynamic is that she has in front of her.
Now, one person who's been, I think, really persuasive on this is Michelle Obama, who made the exact point about how differently we, the press, the voters, are treating these two candidates.That clip has made the round, so I'm not going to play that.
There was something else she said this week about apathy. that I actually haven't seen make the rounds quite a bit, but I thought was really powerful.
And it's the kind of clip, listeners, that I would share with people in your lives who are undecided about whether to vote at all.
Folks, a lot like all of us here tonight.So let me tell you something.They could not care less about your apathy.In fact, They welcome it.They welcome it.They are happy to be in full control of this game.
That's why every single person who has real power in this world They are fully engaged in the political process.Every CEO and billionaire and corporate board president, they follow the news obsessively.They hire lobbyists to fight for their interest.
They donate to the candidates they seek to influence.You all hear me now?This is what I'm telling you.They donate on both sides of the aisle if it's in their interest.
And you better believe that they vote in every single election because they know how critical elections are to maintaining and building their power base.
And when we don't vote, they assume that not only do we not care, but that we are happy to hand our power over to them.Happy.
And what a lot of non-voters don't understand about real power is that our absence doesn't make those in charge hear us any better.Instead, our absence is taken as our consent.
They take our indifference as part of their mandate to do whatever they want.That has always been the truth of how this country runs.The process goes on. with or without you.Decisions are made, judges appointed, laws enacted.
So when you're talking to folks out there who are considering sitting on the sidelines, I want you to tell them about how this system really works.
Super powerful.It's been great to see the Obamas out there.Michelle, I think, continues to be the best messenger we have within the party.
That was perfect.I mean, her quote about those that have real power, everyone who has real power is engaged in the political process, is so true.
And you can kind of tell that she's been thinking, I mean, that's something she's been thinking about for 15 years, right?I mean, she's been watching and she's been thinking, and that was incredibly insightful and it was dead on.
Yeah, totally.And as a reminder, the stakes here, somebody tweeted out this morning, you know, the stakes coming into focus over the last 24 hours.One, RFK Jr.says Trump promised me control of HHS and AG.
Two, Trump confirms he's giving Elon Musk permission to cut up to $2 trillion in spending.Three, Mike Johnson says he'll kill Obamacare. There's obviously a lot more But that is a reminder.We're gonna take a quick break when we come back.
We're gonna talk about how the two Sets of closing arguments are really shaping up.We're gonna talk about Trump going to MSG to Rogan And then we are going to look at some polls in early vote
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Well, as our listeners are familiar with now, Trump came here to my hometown of New York over the weekend and spoke to a sellout crowd at Madison Square Garden.
Most of the news came from people other than Trump during this rally, but Trump stuck to a familiar message.
A massive, vicious, crooked, radical left machine that runs today's Democrat Party. They're just vessels.In fact, they're perfect vessels because they'll never give them a hard time.They'll do whatever they want.I know many of them.
It's just this amorphous group of people.But they're smart and they're vicious.And we have to defeat them.And when I say the enemy from within, the other side goes crazy, becomes a sound.Oh, how can he say?
No, they've done very bad things to this country.They are indeed the enemy from within.
So not much news there, but the real news came from some of these surrogates who started, most notably this guy, Tony Hinchcliffe, who, among other things, called Puerto Rico a pile of garbage in the middle of the ocean or whatever, and then had this to say about Hispanics generally.
A lot going on.Like, I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now.Yeah.I think it's called Puerto Rico. OK, all right.OK, we're getting there.
Again, normally I don't follow the national anthem, everybody.
And he made another remark about, you know, that used a metaphor about not pulling out during sex and all that.And that was about the Hispanics generally.Meanwhile, their kids at this rally, by the way, this is the party of the evangelical right.
While he was doing this, Stephen, Harris was in Pennsylvania that day, among other things, unveiling her policy towards Puerto Rico.This is her describing that effort with Charlemagne, the God.
Well, you know why he was at MSG yesterday while, you know, he had the rally at MSG and he had people up there insulting Puerto Ricans and black people and Jewish people.You was actually in Philly reaching out to the black and Latino community.
Yes, and it just turned out, Charlemagne, to be a real coincidence, but again, pointing out a stark contrast between he and I. Yes, I was in Philly meeting with leaders, many leaders in many communities, but including leaders in the Puerto Rican community, to talk with them about my longstanding commitment
to Puerto Rico, to the people who live on that island, who have often been overlooked.
In fact, they know, and we talked about the fact that even when I was in the United States Senate, knowing Puerto Rico doesn't have its own United States Senator, I was a leader in making sure that we would get relief to people on the island when it came to the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.
And what I shared with everyone is part of my opportunity economy, as you know, which is about lifting up people around home ownership and small businesses, that I will have a specific opportunity economy task force for Puerto Rico.
that will focus on the needs that they have in terms of fixing that electrical grid in Puerto Rico and also bringing private sector investment together with government investment and non-profit investment onto the island to help with job creation and sustainability for the island.
Well, contrast could not be clearer, and Trump and his team have been trying to clean this up.So in a rare moment, his campaign apologized.He got criticism from Rick Scott.A lot of congressional candidates around the country freaked out about this.
Which is important because a lot of what the right is trying to do is be like the left can't take jokes, right?Well, it's not about the left.Your own people are freaking out about this.We could talk about what's a good joke or a bad joke.
I'm not here to do any of that pro clutching right now.I'm just saying this was not a wise political thing to do and pissed off a lot of Puerto Ricans.You have people like Mark Anthony and, you know, tons of other people.Jennifer Lopez, et cetera.
This election comes down to Pennsylvania, and one of the five most famous athletes of all time from Pennsylvania is Roberto Clemente, a Puerto Rican who literally died playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
He was still an athlete, still playing in Pittsburgh, and he died in a plane crash when he was going back to South America to take supplies to people that had been hurt in, I think it was a hurricane or an earthquake.And so if you talk about just,
walking right into, we're talking about fighting for hundreds of votes in Pennsylvania, not a smart move.
And I've been around enough campaigns, there's no way that they put a comedian out there before a former president of the United States and didn't have any idea what he was gonna say.There's no possibility.
No, we know this because it's reported that they vetted the remarks and took out, they were using, they used the C word to describe Harris.They took that out, but they left in these remarks.
And if you're talking to people in your life about this, there's a few.First of all, there's 450,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania.You got to think this is relevant to that.But in general,
It's important to be like, if they're this sloppy and Trump is this reckless when it comes to this presidential campaign, which is the only thing standing in the way between him and time in prison, if he's this sloppy and reckless and ineffective, what would he be like during the presidency?
You know, like if he can't even execute a standard political rally at Madison Square Garden without chaos.
We've seen what he's like.I mean, we don't have to imagine.We couldn't leave our houses.We've watched him screw this up before.And your point is, you said this earlier, we have a clear choice.
I'm now in middle age and I remember when I was in high school watching elections in the late 90s. 2000.And the jokes were that the cannons were the same, that there was no choice between.Yes.Coke and Pepsi.Right.That's how it was framed.
That's what people complained about.And this is as clear a choice as the American people have ever had.
Yeah, I agree.Now, the thing about what you say is like you remember what it was like.I agree.But it seems like vast swaths of the undecided vote are getting more positive in their, you know, in their nostalgia for Trump's presidency.
So a job that Harris has had to do is to talk about she has to do two things.One is to remind them how like how bad Trump's presidency was.And two, to say that even if you thought it was decent, none of the people around him who kept him somewhat
I mean, that would be an overstatement to even call it restrained.We're not going to be there anymore.Those people are saying he's a fascist and can't be trusted to go back.Right?Yeah.
They've all come out against him.Almost universally.I mean, almost every one of his cabinet members has either not gotten engaged in his campaign or come out against him.
Right.And here's a Hispanic radio host in Pennsylvania talking about the fallout from these remarks.
I'm wondering, Victor, his campaign is going to feature Zoraida Abuxo, the shadow senator from Puerto Rico.We've heard reports that other prominent Puerto Ricans are going to be joining him.What do you think about that?
What do you know about who else might be going there?
I haven't heard of anyone else being there, but I'll tell you this, none of those people matter.
It's all about number one, until Donald Trump doesn't himself acknowledge the fact that this was wrong, that this is unacceptable, that we will not tolerate this, I don't think none of that matter.
He can bring anybody he wants from Puerto Rico, and I've heard it from my audience, it's too late now. He needed to say something right away that night or the day before or the day after.And he hasn't done it by now.
He can bring anybody he wants from Puerto Rico and he's not going to make a difference.
Well, that's the standard is like, can Trump address this?He was recently asked about his rally in Madison Square Garden and these remarks.
And I can't imagine it's a big deal.I've done more for Puerto Rico than any president I think that's ever that's ever been president.
So we didn't get our apology there.Nikki Haley, who it's hard to know where she's going to be on any given issue.You know, she's kind of seized on the tenor of Trump's campaign generally to, I think, I guess, critique Trump.
And this clip is making the rounds.
But they also need to look at how they're talking about women.I mean, this bromance and this masculinity stuff,
Oops.Well, we lost part of that, but you know, you get it.She was, you think, yeah.
You know, adjudicated for sexual assault for, for proudly stripping row for, you know, running ads that they are running the ads about Kamala is the C word.Like, yeah.You think they have a problem with women?Like they've been, I,
I am aghast at any anybody is supporting Trump or by any woman or by any person of color.Everything he said is just beyond me.I don't understand it.
Yeah.Well, you know, if you we it's easy to sort of critique what Trump is doing and there's a lot to critique, but there is a scary reality to Trump that Nate Cohn wrote about today, which is If sporadic voters turn out, Trump will win.
That's what Cohen's assessment is, and I agree with it.He put together this chart that essentially shows people who say they're definitely gonna vote, Harris wins those people.People who are likely to vote, it's kind of 50-50.
And then you go all the way down, Trump's winning greater percentages of people who both say they're not gonna vote or are undecided if they're going to vote, or are less likely to vote, and have lower voting histories.
And a big chunk of those people are men, and particularly young men, who are the least reliable voters out there.I was looking at the numbers today.
There's like a 10% to 15% split between young women voters and young men voters in turnout in most elections. So what Trump needs to do is turn out more of those young men who happen to support him, and you could see it in his strategy.
He left a rally of Michigan voters waiting so he could go on The Rogan Show.And it's easy to critique that. He had at least 35 million views on that, and I watched the whole frigging three-hour thing.I know people want to hear it, but it's effective.
There are a million things I could critique Trump on. But he did what he needed to do in that interview.There were some less flattering moments, but before we even get there, the subject of whether Harris should go on Rogin has been a big debate.
Trump and Rogin actually discussed it.Here's a clip from that exchange.
show like this.Can you imagine Kamala doing this show?I could imagine her doing this show.She'd be laying on the floor.
She was supposed to do it and she might still do it and I hope she does.She's not gonna do it.I will talk to her like a human being.I will try to have a conversation with her.
If she did this kind of an interview with you, I hope she does, because it would be a mess.She'd be laying on the floor, comatose.
She'd be saying, call in the medics.I think we'd have a fine conversation.I think I'd be able to talk to her.I wouldn't try to interview her.I just try to have a conversation with her and hopefully get to know her as a human being.
That was my goal, having her on, trying to get her to express herself just as... I don't know if these... I don't think these formats are good.
I don't think that two people... First of all, I hate the idea of the presidential debates because I hate the idea of a time limitation on complex ideas. Also, you have to break.I think you have to have the debates, right?
But the way they do the debates I think is the wrong way to do it.I think they should have a conversation I think you and Kamala you sit across the table with no one in the room, but the two of you of course Let's put aside the debate stuff
I think I was baffled, honestly, that Harris's team, when they initially reported that she was going to decline it because of two things.One is Rogan is not a hard interview.Even if he's not aligned with her, he doesn't
He's not going to push back that much.Two is something like the last data I showed.So like 70 something percent of Rogan's audience have a favorable opinion of Trump and like it's in the teens for Harris.
So it's straight offense, never mind the fact that For these interviews, a lot more people tune in, independents, sporadics, maybe even your supporters.He doesn't get 35 million normally.
When a big guest like Trump was on or Harris is on, it'll attract a lot of other people. For her, when do you get three hours to talk to 35 million people?Or even let's say those people listen to half or a third of the interview.
It gives you an opportunity to just express yourself and show people that you're not afraid.So I still hold out hope that she can do this interview.It hasn't been reported that it's completely off the table.I know Vance is going on today.
Yeah, so what you're saying when you say that it's straight offense, is that if 70% of the people already listen to it or against her, and there's 15% that are for, 15% that are undecided, there's basically nothing she can lose, right?
She can't screw anything up.What she can do- Yeah, there's a bad clip here and there, but who cares, you know?
There's not, I mean, like the folks listening But what she can do is she can make gains.She can cut into Trump's vote share there.
And so if she leaves going from 15 to 22, 23 percent support, that's people that are coming straight out of votes for Trump.
I was actually having a discussion with this to be thinking, I think Rogan said something about like, he didn't want to just do an hour and he wanted her to go to Austin.
And I think my initial reaction was probably the similar to most people listening to this is like, who the hell does this guy think he is?Like, she's running for president of the United States.
I'm sorry that you get an hour rather than three and you can travel to her. that going back to what we were talking about earlier, this is not about... No, yeah.Rogan's not on the ballot.
The question isn't who Rogan is.
Right.This is about winning.And if the answer is, if it helps winning to fly down to Austin, Texas, whether it's not fair, it's not respectful, but it's about winning at this point.It's about nothing else than that.
And if you can get 800 more votes in Pennsylvania and 500 more votes in Michigan and 500 more votes in Arizona, it's probably worth doing.
100 percent.Rogan, if Rogan were on the ballot, I would love to debate with anybody about whether Rogan is feeling entitled or not or whatever.Irrelevant.He also doesn't do interviews anywhere else.So I get it.
Like if he doesn't want to go anywhere, he doesn't want to go anywhere.He made Trump go to him, too.Right.So it's. I think she should do it.I really hope she does it.
I hope I wake up tomorrow to the news that she recorded tomorrow and then aired it on Saturday.That would be great timing.I think she'd do a great job, by the way.
She's a good, normal person.I think the format would be fine.I think that when she's relaxed, I think she does a good job for a couple hours.Really, she is far more competent with big ideas and complex thinking than Trump is.
It's all people will talk about all weekend and people will give her a lot of credit for it.Even if she stumbles here and there, they'll be viewing it as going on hostile territory.
Everybody knows the setup of it and it will surprise people that Trump in that very clip that we just showed was downplaying expectations for Harris.It was like, oh, she's going to be on the floor.
You're like, OK, like, let's see what this sounds like.
Kind of like she went on Fox News, right?She did an interview with Fox News and went, that was offense as well.And it had a ton of views.And I think people think she did a pretty good job doing that.So yeah, I think you're right.
It actually, it's a phenomenal opportunity to complete control the message in the last weekend of the campaign.
Yeah.I swear to God, I'm refreshing news sites, just hoping I see the news that she does it. And I'm honestly baffled by the decision not to do it.
Like I get that you have a schedule, but 35 million people is many, many more people that are going to see anything that you're going to do anywhere else between now and the election.
I don't care if Michael Jackson is resurrected from the dead and sings a song at your concert.More people are going to tune into the Rogan interview with you and more people in the swing states that you're going to.So. Hopefully they get that done.
And it makes me even more anxious that Vance is on there today spewing his bullshit.So I really hope she gets on there.Trump and Rogan did have this interesting exchange over who won the last election.Let's go to this clip.
I want to talk about 2020, because you said over and over again that you were robbed in 2020.Yeah, totally.How do you think you were robbed?Everybody always cuts you off.
Well, they not only cut you off.Well, what I'd rather do is we'll do it another time.And I would bring in papers that you would not believe, so many different papers. That election was so crooked.It was the most crooked election.
OK, but give me some examples of how.Well, let's start.Let's start at the top and the easy ones.OK.They were supposed to get legislative approval to do the things they did, and they didn't get it.In many cases, they didn't get it.What things?
anything.Like for extensions of the voting, for voting earlier, for this.All different things.By law, they had to get legislative approvals.You don't have to go any further than that.
If you take a look at Wisconsin, they virtually admitted that the election was rigged, robbed, and stolen. They wouldn't give access in certain areas to the ballots because the ballots weren't signed.They weren't originals.
We could go into this stuff.We could go into the ballots or we could go into the overall.I'll give you another one.Are you going to present this ever?Let me just give you one more before.
Fifty-one intelligence agents come up that the laptop was from Russia.It turned out to be totally false.
Fifty-one former intelligence agents, right?
They say that made... I don't believe it's this much, but it doesn't have to... I won by, like... I lost by, like... I didn't lose.But they say I lost by 22,000 votes.That's like one-tenth of one percent less than that.It's a tiny little thing.
22,000 votes spread over this period.So 51 intelligence agents lied.They lied.They lied.They knew it was.It was Hunter's.It was from his bed.It was Hunter's laptop.They said it was created by Russia.Russia, Russia, Russia.It was the Russia hoax.
So despite what I think was a generally helpful media appearance, there was still bullshit like this in there.And I think like Rogan let him get away with everything.And again, Rogan lets everybody get away with everything.
So it's not, you know, I, of course I think he's more favorable to Trump and RFK.He says basically as much, but this one clip is making the rounds and I don't think this particular clip helps Trump very much.
I almost lost it at a forum.
We did a forum the other night, and they were asking about photo ID laws here in Missouri and voting rights and just the gaslighting on a scale that I've never seen as an American in terms of this guy tried to organize a plan to steal the election with the electors and submit fake electors.
And they're out there.And people need to, I'm trying to, Trump is going to declare victory on election night.That is going to happen.And he's already doing it.He's already talking just these vague things about fraud in Pennsylvania.
There needs to be enforcement.He's going to allege, with no specifics like he did there, random things like intelligence agents are saying things are happening in Michigan or Arizona.All this stuff is going to happen.
And I think that the week after the election and a couple of weeks after the election, are going to be some of the most important weeks in modern American history because he's not going to concede.He's not.
And we're going to have to not just win on election day, but we're going to have to defend that win on a whole bunch of different ways in courts, on the media, for weeks following the election.And it's infuriating and it's terrifying.
Well, let's shift gears and talk quickly about what we know about the vote so far.
I had a really good conversation with Tom Bonior from Target Smart earlier this week, and folks can go to the Lost Debate feed to listen to that, where we broke down in detail the early vote.
But top line here is that the Sunbelt versus the blue wall states, as we call them, is the dynamic I'm seeing in the early vote right now, meaning Nevada, Arizona data, you have to really try hard to see good news there for Democrats.
Nevada, in particular, where people who are very trustworthy on these issues, like John Ralston, you know, pointing out what the data is very obviously showing, which is that the Republicans are turning out for in-person early vote.
And even in the case of Nevada, mail-in.And Democrats are underperforming where they traditionally are now.And in the case of Nevada, Clark County, which has these mail-in votes, are just lagging.
Like, Clark County is generally lagging the rest of the state in the rural areas that Republicans vote in.There are all kinds of explanations as to why that could be the case. including that they mailed the ballots out late this year.
But at the moment, the data is not good there.Arizona doesn't have great data so far either.
But on the other hand, some of these other states, Michigan and Wisconsin, we have incomplete data there because they don't report everything you need, but we have huge gender skews there and really good turnout in
certain core cities like Milwaukee and in Detroit.Pennsylvania Democrats currently have a 380,000 vote lead in terms of just registered Democrats turning in their ballots versus Republicans.
This is good, but it lags where we were in 2020, which as we've talked about on this podcast, is what we expect, right? They had a higher percentage at the end of early vote or what the equivalent of Pennsylvania is of early vote.
They don't have actually traditional early vote.But this is still really good.Like the standard isn't meet the pandemic level when Trump is telling his people not to turn out.
The standard is, you know, do you have some kind of cushion heading into Election Day is pretty good sign.North Carolina and Georgia are very tricky to assess right now.
in particular because of the unaffiliated vote, especially in North Carolina, is such a high percentage of the vote.Right now, North Carolina is basically a third, a third, and a third.
And so you really have to dig into what those unaffiliated voters are showing.But in almost every state, the gender skew is very high, which is good for Democrats.
And almost every poll that's attempted to ask people who've early voted already shows that in the battleground states, Democrats are winning early vote. So my short piece here is nothing to panic about at all in the early vote.
It's a very limited information for the average person following this.It's very important for the campaigns because it tells them who they have to turn out on election day.
Obviously, you want to get as many people to vote before election day as possible because it makes your job a lot easier on election day and de-risks election day. But there's nothing super alarming.
Nevada is not great, but it's totally reversible with a good turnout operation in the remaining week and then on election day.
I'm always jealous of athletes and sports and sports commentators because they get so many different repetitions to talk about.There's a game every week.Right.They compare it to the last week and like, well, two weeks ago.
And this we're, you know, we're comparing by definition, we're comparing data to something four years ago. In this case, four years ago when there was a pandemic.The data points we have, it's so hard to draw those analogies.
I was looking it up because I heard a similar thing.I looked up Jefferson County, Missouri, which was a swing county in Missouri.Obama barely won it in 2008.He did his first 100 days.He did his speech in Jefferson County.
He did his big 100-day speech. And then the county completely cratered, and he lost about 20 points in 2012.So if you're comparing 2008 to 2012, you could be saying, well, he did 20 points worse, but he also won in 2012.
He won in a different way, but he still won the election.And that was just four years later.So it's really hard to make those analogies.And the other thing is that the choices that each campaign is making they have real impacts.
And we don't know what all those choices are, right?So one, in 2020, they might've said, we're gonna spend a huge amount of money on a mail-in vote program with seniors because of the pandemic.
And they're making a different calculation this time for a different reason to say, we're gonna put the money and the resources into an election day turnout program or something like that.
And that's something that nobody looking at the data is gonna know.So it's close.We know it's close.It's always gonna be close.It was always gonna be close.
And that's really, while we're looking in this data to try to find something, we're not ultimately going to know until it happens.
Yeah.I mean, that's the basics.And I referred also to this Nate Cohn article that he put up today in the New York Times, that's just really helpful in helping you game out scenarios, right?
By and large, Democrats are sitting pretty with the people that we know are going to turn out.Trump is generally doing a lot better with the voters that are unsure whether they're going to turn out.
But as you go down that pyramid, though, there are also a lot more undecided voters.So what Cohn was saying is that
if sporadic voters turn out, that's not an automatic for Trump because it could just be the sporadic voters on either side of the ledger or the undecided sporadic voters have made up their mind and decide they're going to vote.
And right now that's not reflected in the data.So nothing is guaranteed, but the good news to everybody is that if this is in fact trending towards a lower turnout election, Which there's definitely some evidence to suggest that.
Notarian didn't suggest that it will be lower than 2020 for sure. That's not necessarily bad news for Democrats.
And if you're listening to this, nothing that you do in the next six days should be any different based on what the turnout really did.You need to vote.You need to ask your family to vote.You need to text all your friends to vote.
If you have an opportunity to volunteer this weekend, whether it's a presidential race, a battleground, or a local race, you should volunteer.
if you're listening to this, for all of us at this point, and pretty soon it literally is all of us, even the candidates themselves, it's just, there's nothing else to think about.
You just have to do the basic things and we're gonna do them no matter what.So, I've got family in Pennsylvania, actually, my family's from there, and they're mostly reliable Democrats, but this year I was like, you know what?
I'm gonna call each one of them individually and make sure that they vote on election day. And no early voting data is going to change my plan.I'm going to do that no matter what the data says.
Yeah.And just for people, you're going to see people making crazy claims.Musk himself was tweeting about this, about early vote.I'm telling you right now, what I just said is going to be the story until election day.
Like, yes, there are going to be fluctuations here and there in states, but no state, is there going to be anything definitive that happens between now and election day?I promise.
The only silver lining, and I mean the only, and this is the faintest of silver linings of a Donald Trump presidency, would be watching Elon Musk find out that Trump doesn't actually like him, care about him, just took his money and isn't gonna put him in charge of anything.
That's the only funny thing that would happen.But other than that, it's all bad.
Well, for everybody, that's all we have today.We all have a platform.Make sure to use yours today.We will not speak before Election Day, so get out there and vote.Sleep well.We'll be right on at our normal time the day after Election Day.
Hopefully, we'll know a winner by then.
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