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From The Guardian's Today In Focus, this is US Election Extra with me, Lucy Hough.Today, how the election is becoming a battle of the sexes, and the ways this race could reshape the American electorate.
And if you are a woman who lives in a household of men that don't listen to you or value your opinion, just remember that your vote is a private matter.
We'll look at Georgia, a state now bitterly divided down racial and gender lines... ...and where the Democratic stakes couldn't be higher This is probably the hardest election decision I've ever had to make... ...because I'm basing it off of not my personal self... ...but just my core belief of who Trump is inside And Donald Trump stages a photoshoot in a garbage truck 250 million people are not garbage
I can tell you who the real garbage is, but we won't say that.
Joining me is George Chidi, politics and democracy reporter for Guardian US.And George, you've spent much of the last few weeks reporting from Atlanta in the state of Georgia.Could you just paint me a picture of the mood there?
We're trying not to be insane.Broadly, we're succeeding, but it's close because the election is close.
Absolutely every indication is that this is going to come down to the wire and that at least everything I'm looking at says it's got to be within a point.
Has it ever been that close before?
Well, yes.In 2020, the president won by famously 11,780 votes.I would not actually be surprised if it was similarly close, only I can't tell in what direction.
So this is a state that was won by Donald Trump in 2016, but then won again, as you say, by Biden in 2020.Are you getting the feeling that this could head back to Trump?
It could.Comparing the early vote right now to how people voted in 2020, it looks like Trump's got a 0.4% lead.But that presumes a lot of things that I don't actually think you can presume.
We don't know how many women who would otherwise have been a Trump voter are voting for Kamala Harris over the abortion issue. And we don't know how many other people who would have been a Harris voter are voting for Trump because of the economy.
I can't tell.And neither can anyone else.And that's part of the reason why both the Harris and the Trump campaign have all but taken out a lease on property in Georgia as they're campaigning.They've made Georgia a priority.
They're spending a lot of resources here. They are personally showing up.They are sending all of their surrogates here.
And why is it so important to the two campaigns?
So if Trump wins Georgia, that's sort of expected, but it's also a requirement, more or less.The state has 16 electoral votes.And without those 16 electors, Trump has to find those 16 somewhere else.
He's got to be able to take Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin in order to make up the difference, all of which look difficult, equally difficult to Georgia.
Essentially, Trump has to run the table on the Southern Sun Belt states in order to win the election. And Harris knows this, and this looks like something she can deny him.If Harris picks up Georgia, it's game over.
I don't think he finds the additional electors somewhere else.
So how do you think the voter demographics in Georgia might play out in the final result?
By early turnout, by gender, it's 55% women.Really? And I think that may end up being determinative.The other thing is like those sort of racial polarization in the American electorate is absolutely on display here.
90% give or take of black voters are going to vote for Kamala Harris.About 70% of white voters are going to vote for Donald Trump.
And yet there's some concern that Kamala Harris is doing less well with black male voters.Is that something that you're noticing on the ground?
Funny thing, I just finished writing a story about that.And the short answer is no.
Some of that has been a statistical artifact where larger polls were looking at a subset of black voters within the polls and drawing conclusions that honestly would not be supported by statistical analysis.
When you poll just black voters, Kamala Harris's numbers are equivalent to Biden's or Obama's or other Democratic candidates.There hasn't been a meaningful erosion.
And so for you, when you're out and about in this state, what kinds of things are you picking up from your conversations with people?
So there's a lot of general anxiety, less about the election than about what happens afterwards.No matter who wins, about half of the people in this state are going to be very, very disappointed.
And we're trying to figure out, I mean, there's a really active conversation right now about how do we live with the result regardless of what it is.
We've done so much to ramp up the conflict that we're questioning whether or not we have the capacity to come together afterwards.
And George, we've been looking at today and focus on how Georgia is already a hotspot for election denialism and the ways that it could be a bellwether for fraud and possible violence in the weeks to come.
Are you seeing any evidence that authorities are preparing for unrest based on what you're seeing on the ground?
I'm not seeing it, but that's not the sort of thing they would show me.It's being discussed.There's a concern about targeted political violence at elected officials, at election officials. depending on what the results are.
Candidly, I will say, I think that is more of a concern if Trump loses than if Harris loses.The elections boards are preparing for challenges.Those challenges are gonna be legal challenges.Last time, elections officials had to up their security.
They had to have armed guards at their homes Some of them were driven from their homes.There is a sincere concern that that may repeat itself.I don't know whether or not we're going to see that.
That's a difficult thing to predict because we're talking about very small groups of very angry people.They don't always telegraph what they're going to do.
And yesterday we spoke about a gaffe from President Biden where he appeared to describe Trump supporters as garbage.His team have clarified what he meant by those remarks but nonetheless Donald Trump is very much keen to capitalise on this.
Donald Trump says 30 things that are worse than that about Democrats and everybody else before breakfast.Yeah, that is true.I don't actually think it's going to be that important.
In no small part, because more than half of the electorate has already voted here.
And you've got Donald Trump doing a photo shoot in a garbage truck to try and get this out into the media more.Do you think that sort of thing cuts through?
It'll show up on a late night comedian's monologue, but no, I don't think so.
So does any kind of big intervention matter at this point of the campaign if people are so fixed?It was notable that Arnold Schwarzenegger came out publicly in support of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz yesterday.
Of course, Hollywood star and former Republican governor of California.By that logic, does none of this really cut through to people at this point?
I mean don't be wrong like hooray like Arnold Schwarzenegger is offering an endorsement.I don't it's it's the Thursday before the election and we're talking about the governor of California, former governor, a state that Harris is going to win.
Yes, he's a Republican, but he was also one of the leaders of the moderate wing of the Republican Party.It's not a surprise to see that he's voting for Harris.
I think we are beyond the point where endorsements or gaffes are going to be determinative in any meaningful way, even in a close election like this.
And are you looking forward to this all being over?I sense that you are.
Oh, am I?Oh, with sprinkles on top.Yeah, I want to be done.Very much so.I just don't know when that's actually going to happen.
Oh, well, George, we wish you well and thank you for coming on.
That was George Chidi.My thanks to him.And you can keep up with his excellent reporting over at theguardian.com.Today in Focus, we'll be back tomorrow looking at the state of Michigan, where Kamala Harris is facing headwinds.
And over at Politics Weekly America, Alice Herman is in Wisconsin looking at how the two campaigns are looking to mobilize the youth vote.US Election Extra will be back with you at the same time tomorrow.Thanks for listening.
Hello, it's Grace Dent here from The Guardian's Comfort Eating podcast.This week, I sat down with actor Richard E. Grant and we talked about love, baked beans, and what it was like to work with the Spice Girls at the height of their fame.
Scary pinched my bum and she said, you're not bad for an old bloke.And I thought that was a great compliment.
That's Comfort Eating.Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
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